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Indeed, we do many things to get to of course, as pretty usual, we got some updates on the tariff situation, what is on, what is off? We've got some more warning signs with regards to the economy. Also, increasingly clear AGI artificial general intelligence is really just around the corner. Expected to be here during the Trump administration. Is anyone ready for that? I really don't think, so we're going to take a look at that. Also some really contradictory signs about what Trump's approach is with regards to Gaza. So we'll give you all of the indications and all of the developments there. Andrew Tait now saying, actually, I'm just like ready to leave America anyway, guys, I was just going to stay here for a couple of days.

Indeed, we do many things to get to of course, as pretty usual, we got some updates on the tariff situation, what is on, what is off? We've got some more warning signs with regards to the economy. Also, increasingly clear AGI artificial general intelligence is really just around the corner. Expected to be here during the Trump administration. Is anyone ready for that? I really don't think, so we're going to take a look at that. Also some really contradictory signs about what Trump's approach is with regards to Gaza. So we'll give you all of the indications and all of the developments there. Andrew Tait now saying, actually, I'm just like ready to leave America anyway, guys, I was just going to stay here for a couple of days.

And I'm out.

And I'm out.

So a lot going on there and some political interesting sort of like political ramifications there as well. I'm taking a look at if Trump is going to cook the books on the economy, some pretty clear indications in that direction. And we have the socialist candidate for New York City mayor who is going up against Andrew Cuomo is going to be on the show. He actually was on with Emily and Ryan before. His campaign has come a long way since then. He's actually polling as the top sort of progressive candidate in the race, which is pretty surprising kind of coming out of nowhere. So excited to talk to him as well.

So a lot going on there and some political interesting sort of like political ramifications there as well. I'm taking a look at if Trump is going to cook the books on the economy, some pretty clear indications in that direction. And we have the socialist candidate for New York City mayor who is going up against Andrew Cuomo is going to be on the show. He actually was on with Emily and Ryan before. His campaign has come a long way since then. He's actually polling as the top sort of progressive candidate in the race, which is pretty surprising kind of coming out of nowhere. So excited to talk to him as well.

All right, So with all of it, by the way, thank you to everybody supports the show. We appreciate it very much. Been a very busy week here at breaking points. So let's go ahead and get to the tariffs. The most important economic news the White House announcing yesterday that there will be some terriff exclusion, specifically for automakers.

All right, So with all of it, by the way, thank you to everybody supports the show. We appreciate it very much. Been a very busy week here at breaking points. So let's go ahead and get to the tariffs. The most important economic news the White House announcing yesterday that there will be some terriff exclusion, specifically for automakers.

Let's take a listen.

Let's take a listen.

We spoke with the big three auto dealers.

We spoke with the big three auto dealers.

We are going to give a one month exemption on any autos coming through USMCA. Reciprocal tariffs will still go into effect on April seconds, but at the request of the companies associated with USMCA, the President is giving them an exemption for one month so they are not at an economic disadvantage. So the three companies that he spoke to are Stilantis, Ford in General Motors.

We are going to give a one month exemption on any autos coming through USMCA. Reciprocal tariffs will still go into effect on April seconds, but at the request of the companies associated with USMCA, the President is giving them an exemption for one month so they are not at an economic disadvantage. So the three companies that he spoke to are Stilantis, Ford in General Motors.

One on the reprieve that is being granted to these three automakers for one month on the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, how did the President settle on one month?

One on the reprieve that is being granted to these three automakers for one month on the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, how did the President settle on one month?

The reciprocal tariffs will go into effect on April second, and he feels strongly about that no matter what, no exemption. So that's where the one month come from.

The reciprocal tariffs will go into effect on April second, and he feels strongly about that no matter what, no exemption. So that's where the one month come from.

So sure does he expect them to be able to shift production within a month.

So sure does he expect them to be able to shift production within a month.

He told them that they should get on it, start investing, start moving shift production here to the United States of America where they will pay no tariff.

He told them that they should get on it, start investing, start moving shift production here to the United States of America where they will pay no tariff.

That's the ultimate goal.

That's the ultimate goal.

So there was some initial confusion there from that announcement. It initially appeared as if it only applied to the Big three automakers, but the White House systems clarified that those terrif exemptions are for all automakers. The reason why that this is most significant is because part of USMCA and of NAFTA is that many of these car companies are vertically integrated across all three countries, and that many of these parts Crystal will move across the border, some almost forty or fifty times in the most extreme example, and so the idea was if it was going to get hit with a twenty five percent tariff every single time that across the border, you would famously have those examples of a car going from from fifty thousand to like eighty or ninety thousand dollars something like that one month exclusion. Though as the question there was like, that's not exactly time. This seems to be part of the chaos blunt force strategy to try and see as much progress or announcements or whatever Trump can.

So there was some initial confusion there from that announcement. It initially appeared as if it only applied to the Big three automakers, but the White House systems clarified that those terrif exemptions are for all automakers. The reason why that this is most significant is because part of USMCA and of NAFTA is that many of these car companies are vertically integrated across all three countries, and that many of these parts Crystal will move across the border, some almost forty or fifty times in the most extreme example, and so the idea was if it was going to get hit with a twenty five percent tariff every single time that across the border, you would famously have those examples of a car going from from fifty thousand to like eighty or ninety thousand dollars something like that one month exclusion. Though as the question there was like, that's not exactly time. This seems to be part of the chaos blunt force strategy to try and see as much progress or announcements or whatever Trump can.

Squeeze out of them.

Squeeze out of them.

But the market reaction has been all over the place over the last couple of days, and so the pendulum continues to swing back and forth and back and forth.

But the market reaction has been all over the place over the last couple of days, and so the pendulum continues to swing back and forth and back and forth.

Yeah, indeed, I mean, is it crazy for him and to think that he saw that Fox News segment with the car dealer guy who was like, this same truck is going up twenty k like right now instantly, and Maria Barbaroma being like, oh my god, what is going on here? Like, I genuinely think that may have been part of the calculus going into this. I was a little bit surprised there wasn't more of a rollback of the tariffs that is just.

Yeah, indeed, I mean, is it crazy for him and to think that he saw that Fox News segment with the car dealer guy who was like, this same truck is going up twenty k like right now instantly, and Maria Barbaroma being like, oh my god, what is going on here? Like, I genuinely think that may have been part of the calculus going into this. I was a little bit surprised there wasn't more of a rollback of the tariffs that is just.

Applying to the auto industry.

Applying to the auto industry.

The other part that was kind of funny to me is like, the one group that came out and was like, actually we like the tariffs was the United Auto Workers, and now that's the one industry where it's being rolled back. The other thing that was surprising to me is you were alluding to the markets, is how positively the markets responded to this news since you are just talking about one sector of the economy. Granted, of course it is a significant sector, but you know, the plan is for them to go back in place in a month. All of the tariffs on Mexico are still there. The teriff announced on China's still there. All the rest of the tariffs on Canada is still there, and Justin Trudeau and Canada is still talking pretty tough saying listen, unless all of the tariffs a rolled back, we are continuing with our retaliatory tariffs. So you know, people should be really clear about what this means. It will have significant impact on a lot of produce coming from Mexico, you know, from Canada.

The other part that was kind of funny to me is like, the one group that came out and was like, actually we like the tariffs was the United Auto Workers, and now that's the one industry where it's being rolled back. The other thing that was surprising to me is you were alluding to the markets, is how positively the markets responded to this news since you are just talking about one sector of the economy. Granted, of course it is a significant sector, but you know, the plan is for them to go back in place in a month. All of the tariffs on Mexico are still there. The teriff announced on China's still there. All the rest of the tariffs on Canada is still there, and Justin Trudeau and Canada is still talking pretty tough saying listen, unless all of the tariffs a rolled back, we are continuing with our retaliatory tariffs. So you know, people should be really clear about what this means. It will have significant impact on a lot of produce coming from Mexico, you know, from Canada.

The tariff on energy.

The tariff on energy.

Is lower, but still there, still expecting significant gas price increases, including I think in New England was the first place that you're likely to see gas prices go up some twenty to forty cents pretty quickly. Here new construction materials, a significant amount of that comes from Canada. And then depending on how long this lasts, eighty percent of the fertilizer that's used in the US comes from Canada as well. So even with the rollback of this one particular sector, which is again it's significant, you're still going to have quite significant and reverbting impacts across the economy if they continue to move forward with these.

Is lower, but still there, still expecting significant gas price increases, including I think in New England was the first place that you're likely to see gas prices go up some twenty to forty cents pretty quickly. Here new construction materials, a significant amount of that comes from Canada. And then depending on how long this lasts, eighty percent of the fertilizer that's used in the US comes from Canada as well. So even with the rollback of this one particular sector, which is again it's significant, you're still going to have quite significant and reverbting impacts across the economy if they continue to move forward with these.

Yeah, there's been so there's been some crazy movement on this. So you reference the markets. The markets were up yesterday, the S and P erased its one day loss, and yet as of this morning you and I are talking, the S and P futures have now erased yesterday's gain, So we're basically back to where we were two days ago.

Yeah, there's been so there's been some crazy movement on this. So you reference the markets. The markets were up yesterday, the S and P erased its one day loss, and yet as of this morning you and I are talking, the S and P futures have now erased yesterday's gain, So we're basically back to where we were two days ago.

So I don't know, don't don't ask me.

So I don't know, don't don't ask me.

I'm not some you know, stock analysts that can only go off of what the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times and all of them are saying. They're saying that right now the Dow future and all of that dropping is from a weakening dollar. And also they are saying that the invert indexes will reverse the rally of the partial rollback yesterday, also apparently in response to the German government and European bond market.

I'm not some you know, stock analysts that can only go off of what the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times and all of them are saying. They're saying that right now the Dow future and all of that dropping is from a weakening dollar. And also they are saying that the invert indexes will reverse the rally of the partial rollback yesterday, also apparently in response to the German government and European bond market.

So there's a lot going on right now.

So there's a lot going on right now.

Actually, interestingly enough, almost all that comes back to Trump, both on the German side and on the tariff side. The Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnik Commerce Secretary, by the way, is the person who is most in charge of the tariffs. Their responsibility under the current law is that they're the ones who write those justifications for them implement the teriffs. Specifically, let's take a listen to what Secretary Lutnik had to say.

Actually, interestingly enough, almost all that comes back to Trump, both on the German side and on the tariff side. The Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnik Commerce Secretary, by the way, is the person who is most in charge of the tariffs. Their responsibility under the current law is that they're the ones who write those justifications for them implement the teriffs. Specifically, let's take a listen to what Secretary Lutnik had to say.

The Big Three say they produce cars that are compliant under US MCA, which means they have sufficient US content in them to be part of the US MCA agreement. So I think that's part of our discussion and the President's really thinking about that.

The Big Three say they produce cars that are compliant under US MCA, which means they have sufficient US content in them to be part of the US MCA agreement. So I think that's part of our discussion and the President's really thinking about that.

It's not really the concemption.

It's not really the concemption.

Remember, it's it's we're trying to end fetanyl coming into the country. So we're trying to set a message that fetanyl has got to end coming in from Mexico and Counada.

Remember, it's it's we're trying to end fetanyl coming into the country. So we're trying to set a message that fetanyl has got to end coming in from Mexico and Counada.

It just has to end.

It just has to end.

And they've done a reasonable job on the border, and they're going to do a better job on the border. But this is memory, it's a key about fentanyl for this month April second, we could talk about the rest depths in America have not decreased in a way that is sufficient depths of feris in America.

And they've done a reasonable job on the border, and they're going to do a better job on the border. But this is memory, it's a key about fentanyl for this month April second, we could talk about the rest depths in America have not decreased in a way that is sufficient depths of feris in America.

Yesterday though, the President question the fairness of Canadian banks, So what is it about. Is it about Canada's banking system or is it really about fentanyl.

Yesterday though, the President question the fairness of Canadian banks, So what is it about. Is it about Canada's banking system or is it really about fentanyl.

So this month right now is about fentanyl. When we talk about April second, we will talk about the bigger trade picture between our trading partners Canada and our trading partners of Mexico.

So this month right now is about fentanyl. When we talk about April second, we will talk about the bigger trade picture between our trading partners Canada and our trading partners of Mexico.

So just to reiterate here, they have to say fentanyl because it's the only way they can get that national security exemption through law, because otherwise you can't just say, oh, I don't agree with Canadian banking or whatever, because we have a USMCA agreement that's been ratified by Congress. This is the only way that you can actually get around that. We do, though, need to flag that the problem with all of this strategy is that Americans need to feel as if there's a big strategy behind it, and we flag this in our pre State of the Union coverage. But this is very important. Let's put this up there on the screen from the New York Times. Here is how Americans feel about TERRA. So you've got some twenty nine percent of Americans to fifty six percent of Americans, depending on how the question is asked, who are in favor of tariffs. Now, the tariffs that have the highest support in the mid fifties are when you ask a question specifically about China. Now, if you mention Canada and Mexico, the support for the tariffs starts to fall. Now the tariffs however, almost at a fifty percent approval rating if they're to bring back American jobs. But if you add the caveat of even if price increases, then you drop down to thirty percent.

So just to reiterate here, they have to say fentanyl because it's the only way they can get that national security exemption through law, because otherwise you can't just say, oh, I don't agree with Canadian banking or whatever, because we have a USMCA agreement that's been ratified by Congress. This is the only way that you can actually get around that. We do, though, need to flag that the problem with all of this strategy is that Americans need to feel as if there's a big strategy behind it, and we flag this in our pre State of the Union coverage. But this is very important. Let's put this up there on the screen from the New York Times. Here is how Americans feel about TERRA. So you've got some twenty nine percent of Americans to fifty six percent of Americans, depending on how the question is asked, who are in favor of tariffs. Now, the tariffs that have the highest support in the mid fifties are when you ask a question specifically about China. Now, if you mention Canada and Mexico, the support for the tariffs starts to fall. Now the tariffs however, almost at a fifty percent approval rating if they're to bring back American jobs. But if you add the caveat of even if price increases, then you drop down to thirty percent.

And that's not a surprise to me at all.

And that's not a surprise to me at all.

Americans are some of the most cost conscious people literally on Earth, where seventy percent consumer based economy.

Americans are some of the most cost conscious people literally on Earth, where seventy percent consumer based economy.

And the real thing.

And the real thing.

Is is all of this would have to be communicated in a way as if people feel that there is a big strategy behind this, because if you're going to jack the price of a car up, or groceries or all of that, you need to have a reason.

Is is all of this would have to be communicated in a way as if people feel that there is a big strategy behind this, because if you're going to jack the price of a car up, or groceries or all of that, you need to have a reason.

And look, I've spoken about Canada and Mexico.

And look, I've spoken about Canada and Mexico.

I do think our trade imbalances are ridiculous with those two countries. However, the problem is right now is that these people are the American people, are not being sold a coherent vision on how this is all going to work. And that's evidenced by the constant roll in and roll back of the strategy.

I do think our trade imbalances are ridiculous with those two countries. However, the problem is right now is that these people are the American people, are not being sold a coherent vision on how this is all going to work. And that's evidenced by the constant roll in and roll back of the strategy.

Right.

Right.

So, the automaker is the perfect example because out of all of the industries that most need and deserve tariffs specifically from this bring back American jobs, it's the automaker specifically that one industry where it should be most applicable, and not say on groceries. We talked here about avocado berries is probably a better example. I don't think we grow any berries in the continental United States. But so if you're giving an exemption to one, jacking the price up on another, rolling back something here, and people are also saying it's about fentanyl, and people are just going to be like, Okay, what the hell is this all about. And I think that's the biggest problem that the White House has right now.

So, the automaker is the perfect example because out of all of the industries that most need and deserve tariffs specifically from this bring back American jobs, it's the automaker specifically that one industry where it should be most applicable, and not say on groceries. We talked here about avocado berries is probably a better example. I don't think we grow any berries in the continental United States. But so if you're giving an exemption to one, jacking the price up on another, rolling back something here, and people are also saying it's about fentanyl, and people are just going to be like, Okay, what the hell is this all about. And I think that's the biggest problem that the White House has right now.

Totally.

Totally.

I do think we grow some berries in California, and I know that we grow some strawberries there and some other things. Yeah, but in any case, your point still stands. It's significant. And you know there's certain things too that, Okay, we can grow them here in one particular season, but we're all used to getting everything we want all the time in the grocery store whenever we want it, even when it is the dead of winter. Those are the sorts of things products that are really going to have pressure put on them here, you know, at a time when people are particularly cast conscious. Obviously, inflation has been one of the major political stories of the past several years, you know, towards the end of COVID and certainly post COVID, So you know, that's what I've mentioned before, is the economic landscape now and the economic priority of Americans is also different from when Trump first came into office. So I think even if he was telling a coherent story about what these tariffs could deliver in terms of reindustrializing America or you know, American jobs, and yes, we're going to have some pain in the short term, but in the long term it's all going to run at work out. I think even if he was telling that story, it would be a tough sell. And he's not telling that story. The message is completely confused. Even Mexico and Canada don't really know what the hell he's doing or what the hell he wants his advisor to sow.

I do think we grow some berries in California, and I know that we grow some strawberries there and some other things. Yeah, but in any case, your point still stands. It's significant. And you know there's certain things too that, Okay, we can grow them here in one particular season, but we're all used to getting everything we want all the time in the grocery store whenever we want it, even when it is the dead of winter. Those are the sorts of things products that are really going to have pressure put on them here, you know, at a time when people are particularly cast conscious. Obviously, inflation has been one of the major political stories of the past several years, you know, towards the end of COVID and certainly post COVID, So you know, that's what I've mentioned before, is the economic landscape now and the economic priority of Americans is also different from when Trump first came into office. So I think even if he was telling a coherent story about what these tariffs could deliver in terms of reindustrializing America or you know, American jobs, and yes, we're going to have some pain in the short term, but in the long term it's all going to run at work out. I think even if he was telling that story, it would be a tough sell. And he's not telling that story. The message is completely confused. Even Mexico and Canada don't really know what the hell he's doing or what the hell he wants his advisor to sow.

Peter Navarro go.

Peter Navarro go.

On last night and be like, Canada is being taken over by Mexican cartel, so they're really pushing the fentanyl line, even though we all know that that's just a pretext for him to be able to have as much authority as he wants and do whatever he wants. And I think your point about the auto industry is a really important one. Like if you were going to make the case for these tariffs in any industry, the auto industry is the place where you have actually the most compelling case, where you can say, Okay, we want to have a really strong auto industry here. This is important to our manufacturing base. It's certainly important in a number of key swing states. We're going to really invest in this industry. We're going to put some protected barriers around it, We're going to bring back, you know, all these supply chains into the US that have gone over to Canada and Mexico since NAFTA was instituted. But instead that's the one that is getting the break. So yeah, I think, you know, politically, I think this is really a non starter in terms of the way that it is.

On last night and be like, Canada is being taken over by Mexican cartel, so they're really pushing the fentanyl line, even though we all know that that's just a pretext for him to be able to have as much authority as he wants and do whatever he wants. And I think your point about the auto industry is a really important one. Like if you were going to make the case for these tariffs in any industry, the auto industry is the place where you have actually the most compelling case, where you can say, Okay, we want to have a really strong auto industry here. This is important to our manufacturing base. It's certainly important in a number of key swing states. We're going to really invest in this industry. We're going to put some protected barriers around it, We're going to bring back, you know, all these supply chains into the US that have gone over to Canada and Mexico since NAFTA was instituted. But instead that's the one that is getting the break. So yeah, I think, you know, politically, I think this is really a non starter in terms of the way that it is.

I mean, it's not being sold, you know.

I mean, it's not being sold, you know.

I don't think the policy makes sense anyway outside of you know, there are some theories of some sort of grand plan to weaken the dollar and for that to cause the reindustrialization.

I don't think the policy makes sense anyway outside of you know, there are some theories of some sort of grand plan to weaken the dollar and for that to cause the reindustrialization.

But again, if.

But again, if.

That's your goal, you need to be explaining that to people. And at the same time, you see you're really flirting with disaster economically, which we're going to talk about more in the next block as well.

That's your goal, you need to be explaining that to people. And at the same time, you see you're really flirting with disaster economically, which we're going to talk about more in the next block as well.

Yes, exactly, you really got to keep these things. You need to keep things such that they are explainable and understandable, especially if you're going to suffer. And part of the other problem is I've seen the Secretary say things like, oh, well it's not and people aren't going to feel it because we're gonna be taking in so much money. And it's like, okay, well, you know, then you've got to have a pretty explicit redistribution program. Maybe people could get behind that. I don't see the Republican Congress going tomorrow yet for some sort of external revenue service that's constantly just cutting checks to Americans in terms of their tariff dividend. If you did that, yeah, maybe it'd be popular, But it's one of those where it actually it would mean that you would have to dramatically change the entire system, of which I don't see a lot of congressional support for right now. So you could have the worst of all worlds. You could have higher prices and you could not have any redistribution. If not not even that, you could actually have cuts there and or a diminishment of services. And so if you do feel like it's a price is going to go down, your government services are also going to go or price is going to go up and your government services go down.

Yes, exactly, you really got to keep these things. You need to keep things such that they are explainable and understandable, especially if you're going to suffer. And part of the other problem is I've seen the Secretary say things like, oh, well it's not and people aren't going to feel it because we're gonna be taking in so much money. And it's like, okay, well, you know, then you've got to have a pretty explicit redistribution program. Maybe people could get behind that. I don't see the Republican Congress going tomorrow yet for some sort of external revenue service that's constantly just cutting checks to Americans in terms of their tariff dividend. If you did that, yeah, maybe it'd be popular, But it's one of those where it actually it would mean that you would have to dramatically change the entire system, of which I don't see a lot of congressional support for right now. So you could have the worst of all worlds. You could have higher prices and you could not have any redistribution. If not not even that, you could actually have cuts there and or a diminishment of services. And so if you do feel like it's a price is going to go down, your government services are also going to go or price is going to go up and your government services go down.

That's not a very good trade, is it. So let's continue here on this.

That's not a very good trade, is it. So let's continue here on this.

On this front, there have definitely been some There have definitely been some CEOs who are doing everything they can to get Trump's ear. Let's put this up there on the screen. The latest gambit is to meet one on one with the president. You've got to give five million dollars to one of his organizations. And now that doesn't directly go to him, but it goes to MAGA Inc. Or the Make America Grade again ink, it's a super pack that supports the Trump twenty twenty four campaign somewhere between one million dollars a piece to dine with him in a group setting five million dollars for a one on one. And so did the Big Three pony that up. Not sure, I mean they probably can get his ear anytime, but this has certainly been something that we have seen in the nearest future, is that people mar a Lago members and others I mean getting in his ear and has had significant changes on policy. The best example is probably Jeffyass who has a huge share in TikTok and a Byte Dance, probably single handedly most responsible for Trump's about face on that. We haven't talked a lot here about the crypto industry, but this is kind of this is unprecedented, to say the least, because what do you need the money for.

On this front, there have definitely been some There have definitely been some CEOs who are doing everything they can to get Trump's ear. Let's put this up there on the screen. The latest gambit is to meet one on one with the president. You've got to give five million dollars to one of his organizations. And now that doesn't directly go to him, but it goes to MAGA Inc. Or the Make America Grade again ink, it's a super pack that supports the Trump twenty twenty four campaign somewhere between one million dollars a piece to dine with him in a group setting five million dollars for a one on one. And so did the Big Three pony that up. Not sure, I mean they probably can get his ear anytime, but this has certainly been something that we have seen in the nearest future, is that people mar a Lago members and others I mean getting in his ear and has had significant changes on policy. The best example is probably Jeffyass who has a huge share in TikTok and a Byte Dance, probably single handedly most responsible for Trump's about face on that. We haven't talked a lot here about the crypto industry, but this is kind of this is unprecedented, to say the least, because what do you need the money for.

You're not running for anything.

You're not running for anything.

It's like, what is all this money being funneled into your campaign or your super pack for. And you know, it's a little grotesque, especially to have basically pay for play with the president at his private club. Not saying it hasn't happened, you know, previously with Trump or I guess with other presidents, but this is just a little bit on the nose right now.

It's like, what is all this money being funneled into your campaign or your super pack for. And you know, it's a little grotesque, especially to have basically pay for play with the president at his private club. Not saying it hasn't happened, you know, previously with Trump or I guess with other presidents, but this is just a little bit on the nose right now.

Yeah, absolutely no doubt about it. And we also know the way that he's able to round trip some of that those funds out of the campaign account into his personal bank account by like, hey we're going to rent Mara a Lago for this event for the Republican Party. Hey we're going to use this or that vendor that actually is under the Trump family umbrella. So one of the things that is unprecedented about him, in particular with his business interests, is the ability to funnel that campaign cash actually directly into his bank account, and then the shit coin is just something else entirely. I mean, we've talked before about this crypto dude who had a big SEC investigation going. He gives seventy five million dollars while he, you know, buys seventy five million dollars worth of Trump crypto tokens and lo and behold, SEC dropped the investigation. Huh isn't that nice for him? I mean, it just it truly is like, listen, we're none of us are Pollyanna here. We know corruption in politics is nothing new. This is like on a truly another level that's hard to describe just how corrupt it is. And then also because you've had so much power consolidated with Trump and Elon in particular, it also becomes much more important to create direct favor with him. So Elon yesterday was meeting with the Republican Caucus and saying like, oh, I'm going to set up a phone line so you guys can call directly if there are programs in your district, in your state that are important that are getting cut. Well, guess who's not going to have access to that phone line? Any Blue state representative. So it truly is just like if you're in the favored class, either because you gave money to Trump, you bought his shit coin, you happen to be a Republican, especially a Republican of state that matters to them politically, then you're going to get your favors, You're going to get your goodies, and everyone else is going.

Yeah, absolutely no doubt about it. And we also know the way that he's able to round trip some of that those funds out of the campaign account into his personal bank account by like, hey we're going to rent Mara a Lago for this event for the Republican Party. Hey we're going to use this or that vendor that actually is under the Trump family umbrella. So one of the things that is unprecedented about him, in particular with his business interests, is the ability to funnel that campaign cash actually directly into his bank account, and then the shit coin is just something else entirely. I mean, we've talked before about this crypto dude who had a big SEC investigation going. He gives seventy five million dollars while he, you know, buys seventy five million dollars worth of Trump crypto tokens and lo and behold, SEC dropped the investigation. Huh isn't that nice for him? I mean, it just it truly is like, listen, we're none of us are Pollyanna here. We know corruption in politics is nothing new. This is like on a truly another level that's hard to describe just how corrupt it is. And then also because you've had so much power consolidated with Trump and Elon in particular, it also becomes much more important to create direct favor with him. So Elon yesterday was meeting with the Republican Caucus and saying like, oh, I'm going to set up a phone line so you guys can call directly if there are programs in your district, in your state that are important that are getting cut. Well, guess who's not going to have access to that phone line? Any Blue state representative. So it truly is just like if you're in the favored class, either because you gave money to Trump, you bought his shit coin, you happen to be a Republican, especially a Republican of state that matters to them politically, then you're going to get your favors, You're going to get your goodies, and everyone else is going.

To be screwed.

To be screwed.

So you know, that's why you see the tech oligarchs lining up at the inauguration, why you see them betting the knee, why you see them donating millions of dollars to the Inauguration Fund, etc. Because they want to make sure their mergers go through. They want to make sure when the terriff is t gets put into place, they get their particular carve out and their interests are looked after. And you know that's very much the story of how this administration is being run.

So you know, that's why you see the tech oligarchs lining up at the inauguration, why you see them betting the knee, why you see them donating millions of dollars to the Inauguration Fund, etc. Because they want to make sure their mergers go through. They want to make sure when the terriff is t gets put into place, they get their particular carve out and their interests are looked after. And you know that's very much the story of how this administration is being run.

Let's go to the economy then, in terms of the warning signs.

Let's go to the economy then, in terms of the warning signs.

So this all sort of ties in. Harry Anton did a great segment breaking down some of the polling numbers about how Americans feel Trump is doing on the economy and specifically whether they feel like he is focusing on economic issues. Enough, let's take a listen to what he had to say.

So this all sort of ties in. Harry Anton did a great segment breaking down some of the polling numbers about how Americans feel Trump is doing on the economy and specifically whether they feel like he is focusing on economic issues. Enough, let's take a listen to what he had to say.

The answer the question is no, Trump and the economy he should prioritize here on planet Earth eighty two percentsent. It's almost as if Trump is on planet Krypton. Look at this. He is prioritizing the economy just thirty six percent. My goodness, gracious, I don't understand how this mathematical formula works. Right, If the economy is the number one issue, if that's what Americans think you should be prioritizing, and well less than half think that you are. No wonder Trump is having problems with the economy because, simply put, he's not putting it to the top of his list the.

The answer the question is no, Trump and the economy he should prioritize here on planet Earth eighty two percentsent. It's almost as if Trump is on planet Krypton. Look at this. He is prioritizing the economy just thirty six percent. My goodness, gracious, I don't understand how this mathematical formula works. Right, If the economy is the number one issue, if that's what Americans think you should be prioritizing, and well less than half think that you are. No wonder Trump is having problems with the economy because, simply put, he's not putting it to the top of his list the.

Way Americans are.

Way Americans are.

American adults who have a job currently at least in January with sixty one percent the percentage that own a stock either directly or indirectly. Perhaps you're four oh one k sixty two percent sock. The stock market is as important to economic perceptions in my mind as is the unemployment number, given that it's about the same percentage of Americans. In fact, if you believe it, though, it's within the margin ververa one point more of the American folks actually own stock than actually have a job.

American adults who have a job currently at least in January with sixty one percent the percentage that own a stock either directly or indirectly. Perhaps you're four oh one k sixty two percent sock. The stock market is as important to economic perceptions in my mind as is the unemployment number, given that it's about the same percentage of Americans. In fact, if you believe it, though, it's within the margin ververa one point more of the American folks actually own stock than actually have a job.

I'm not sure about that last part.

I'm not sure about that last part.

I'm not sure I'm really buying that people are more concerned with the stock market than the employment. I mean, stock market ownership is still very very skewed, but it is an important point that, Look, a lot of people are paying attention to this. Trump himself has always paid very close to attention to what the stock market says. In fact, there's some old tweet of his that's like, you know, if the stock market drops this much two days in a row, that.

I'm not sure I'm really buying that people are more concerned with the stock market than the employment. I mean, stock market ownership is still very very skewed, but it is an important point that, Look, a lot of people are paying attention to this. Trump himself has always paid very close to attention to what the stock market says. In fact, there's some old tweet of his that's like, you know, if the stock market drops this much two days in a row, that.

President should be impeached.

President should be impeached.

That people have been circulating around here soccer. It made me think back to his speech this week and what we talked about that the front part was really frontloaded with the and that's, you know, the first part is what most people will stick around and watch, and then you'll see the clips that circulate after the fact. But that first portion of the speech really frontloaded with culture war. If anything, it feels much more like Elon is the mover and shaker on the pieces relevant to most directly relevant to the economy. Now that sort of changes with Trump stepping up and instituting these tariffs, but changes in an even more negative way because the tariffs are pretty unpopular when you look at what people want him to be focusing on, which is getting prices down, not issuing tariffs that are very likely to raise prices even further than they already are.

That people have been circulating around here soccer. It made me think back to his speech this week and what we talked about that the front part was really frontloaded with the and that's, you know, the first part is what most people will stick around and watch, and then you'll see the clips that circulate after the fact. But that first portion of the speech really frontloaded with culture war. If anything, it feels much more like Elon is the mover and shaker on the pieces relevant to most directly relevant to the economy. Now that sort of changes with Trump stepping up and instituting these tariffs, but changes in an even more negative way because the tariffs are pretty unpopular when you look at what people want him to be focusing on, which is getting prices down, not issuing tariffs that are very likely to raise prices even further than they already are.

Yeah, and just again like if it was part of a major strategy, then okay, then people may be willing to put up with it. No, although I'm not so sure because the real reaction that we've seen currently, I mean that poll really tells the truth. They go, even if prices increase, most Americans just don't want to put up with it.

Yeah, and just again like if it was part of a major strategy, then okay, then people may be willing to put up with it. No, although I'm not so sure because the real reaction that we've seen currently, I mean that poll really tells the truth. They go, even if prices increase, most Americans just don't want to put up with it.

I can't say I blame them, you know, I get it.

I can't say I blame them, you know, I get it.

I would make a case for why it would be worth it and perhaps some ways to mitigate all of that pain. But the problem is is that that's not what the White House is saying right now. And I've really become convinced that this is an existential problem for all of them, because without that message and without that FDR like feeling of I am doing something for you, you were just going to end up like Joe Biden. And let's go ahead to the Atlanta FED because this was the most important actually indicator out of them alls put it up there please on the screen, which is that their GDP model now forecast has actually been revised for the first quarter of twenty twenty five down to minus two point eight percent. So that is one where economic contraction combined with consumer sentiment plunging over tariffs and of uncertainty, also combined with persistent high inflation, all three of those things, not to mention flat unemployment, which we're about to get to in a second, that is a recipe for disaster. And so, as I have said here, you have some runway America is listening. That's one of the more interesting things that you and I have seen is that the amount of interest in news left and right remains sky high right now. So it's not like people are not paying attention and they're generally willing to give you the benefit of the doubt in the first hundred days or so. But you have a very very short period before some serious stuff is about to start hitting you politically. And the biggest danger I see for the Republicans is, let's say things just continue down this road for the first hundred days. Well, Crystal, you and I know what is the first major thing they're going to do after the first hundred days, they're going to pass the Republican tax bill, that tax bill which massively increases or the current tax cuts for large corporations and for rich people.

I would make a case for why it would be worth it and perhaps some ways to mitigate all of that pain. But the problem is is that that's not what the White House is saying right now. And I've really become convinced that this is an existential problem for all of them, because without that message and without that FDR like feeling of I am doing something for you, you were just going to end up like Joe Biden. And let's go ahead to the Atlanta FED because this was the most important actually indicator out of them alls put it up there please on the screen, which is that their GDP model now forecast has actually been revised for the first quarter of twenty twenty five down to minus two point eight percent. So that is one where economic contraction combined with consumer sentiment plunging over tariffs and of uncertainty, also combined with persistent high inflation, all three of those things, not to mention flat unemployment, which we're about to get to in a second, that is a recipe for disaster. And so, as I have said here, you have some runway America is listening. That's one of the more interesting things that you and I have seen is that the amount of interest in news left and right remains sky high right now. So it's not like people are not paying attention and they're generally willing to give you the benefit of the doubt in the first hundred days or so. But you have a very very short period before some serious stuff is about to start hitting you politically. And the biggest danger I see for the Republicans is, let's say things just continue down this road for the first hundred days. Well, Crystal, you and I know what is the first major thing they're going to do after the first hundred days, they're going to pass the Republican tax bill, that tax bill which massively increases or the current tax cuts for large corporations and for rich people.

Let's be honest here, Let's be honest, right.

Let's be honest here, Let's be honest, right.

They made a case for it back in twenty seventeen, and they haven't really reduced from it. So that, as I always say, the lowest day of Donald Trump's presidency in terms of approval rating was the day that that tax bill pass. Well, if you combine that with persistent high inflation, with the economic contraction, with unemployment, inflation, etc. Well plus the tax bill, that is a recipe really for a George W. Bush style pushback even after you've won the popular vote. Bush basically nuked his presidency over trying to privatize Social Security, Andy Rock and I haven't even mentioned any potential crisis. It's all just floating out there right now. Hurricane season, you know, it's not that far away, could be right around the same time as the tax bill.

They made a case for it back in twenty seventeen, and they haven't really reduced from it. So that, as I always say, the lowest day of Donald Trump's presidency in terms of approval rating was the day that that tax bill pass. Well, if you combine that with persistent high inflation, with the economic contraction, with unemployment, inflation, etc. Well plus the tax bill, that is a recipe really for a George W. Bush style pushback even after you've won the popular vote. Bush basically nuked his presidency over trying to privatize Social Security, Andy Rock and I haven't even mentioned any potential crisis. It's all just floating out there right now. Hurricane season, you know, it's not that far away, could be right around the same time as the tax bill.

The optics would be a disaster if anything like that.

The optics would be a disaster if anything like that.

And who in you and I know the global system is very uncertain Ukraine obviously, but Gaza, I mean that could start up any minute now. It already has escalated a bit with the Israelis cutting off AID. There could be any sort of terrorist attack, anything, some sort of major shock to the global system. So with all of us uncertainty right now and these economic problems, people want to feel as if there's a st at, a hand on the wheel. I don't think that they're getting that right now, and I think that remains a big.

And who in you and I know the global system is very uncertain Ukraine obviously, but Gaza, I mean that could start up any minute now. It already has escalated a bit with the Israelis cutting off AID. There could be any sort of terrorist attack, anything, some sort of major shock to the global system. So with all of us uncertainty right now and these economic problems, people want to feel as if there's a st at, a hand on the wheel. I don't think that they're getting that right now, and I think that remains a big.

Problem for Trump.

Problem for Trump.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I mean, you have terrists that are likely to spike prices. You have GDP growth dropping, potentially going negative. I mean that is the definition of stagflation, which is the most disastrous economic situation that you could imagine. And then the GOP economic priorities are tax cuts for the rich and cutting social safety net programs. There was a new report out from the CBO, the Congressional Budget Office that says what you and Izager obviously already knew, which is that the amount of cuts that Republicans are pushing, there is no way to achieve them without cutting Medicaid or Medicare, and we know Medicaid has been in their sits in particular. So you got the richest man on the planet who's consolidated all this power you've got him giving himself contracts and goodies. There's more updates on that on how he's finding more money for and more contracts for Starlink, seemingly every day at the same time that you're pursuing this agenda. That's great for rich pe that's great if you want you, if you're wealthy, if your big corporation, you want your tax cut, and it's terrible for ordinary people who are already suffering and who many of whom voted in this election because they thought Trump as a businessman, would do a better job manning to be managing the economy, and they remembered back to his first term and felt like they were personally doing better, especially because prices were lower at that time and their dollar was able to go further.

I mean, you have terrists that are likely to spike prices. You have GDP growth dropping, potentially going negative. I mean that is the definition of stagflation, which is the most disastrous economic situation that you could imagine. And then the GOP economic priorities are tax cuts for the rich and cutting social safety net programs. There was a new report out from the CBO, the Congressional Budget Office that says what you and Izager obviously already knew, which is that the amount of cuts that Republicans are pushing, there is no way to achieve them without cutting Medicaid or Medicare, and we know Medicaid has been in their sits in particular. So you got the richest man on the planet who's consolidated all this power you've got him giving himself contracts and goodies. There's more updates on that on how he's finding more money for and more contracts for Starlink, seemingly every day at the same time that you're pursuing this agenda. That's great for rich pe that's great if you want you, if you're wealthy, if your big corporation, you want your tax cut, and it's terrible for ordinary people who are already suffering and who many of whom voted in this election because they thought Trump as a businessman, would do a better job manning to be managing the economy, and they remembered back to his first term and felt like they were personally doing better, especially because prices were lower at that time and their dollar was able to go further.

We alluded to this.

We alluded to this.

We've got another negative indicator here that's significant. This is the ADP Jobs Report. Could put this up on the screen. So companies added just seventy seven thousand new workers for the last month. This is the chart showing at that last little blue bar there that's really quite low in comparison to the other blue bars on the chart.

We've got another negative indicator here that's significant. This is the ADP Jobs Report. Could put this up on the screen. So companies added just seventy seven thousand new workers for the last month. This is the chart showing at that last little blue bar there that's really quite low in comparison to the other blue bars on the chart.

That's where we are.

That's where we are.

That's also a lot less than what January was one hundred and eighty six thousand, and it was much below the estimate of one hundred and forty eight thousand jobs added. So, you know, this is something Ryan's been talking about out how all of the federal government cuts. It doesn't just impact those particular people who get fired. You end up with universities freezing firing, You end up with the healthcare system freezing hiring. You end up with an economy that's just kind of on standstill as people wait and see what the reverberations and what the ripple effects are ultimately going to be. You add to that consumer confidences down. I know, Target came out and said that they're spending their revenue was soft in the past month as well, So you've got a lot of indications that consumers are pulling back and getting really nervous as well. And when you ask consumers what their expectations are for both job losses and for inflation, they are expecting things to turn south this year as well. And to be honest with you, I feel like the American people have been better at understanding prediction predicting the economy than many of the analysts who do.

That's also a lot less than what January was one hundred and eighty six thousand, and it was much below the estimate of one hundred and forty eight thousand jobs added. So, you know, this is something Ryan's been talking about out how all of the federal government cuts. It doesn't just impact those particular people who get fired. You end up with universities freezing firing, You end up with the healthcare system freezing hiring. You end up with an economy that's just kind of on standstill as people wait and see what the reverberations and what the ripple effects are ultimately going to be. You add to that consumer confidences down. I know, Target came out and said that they're spending their revenue was soft in the past month as well, So you've got a lot of indications that consumers are pulling back and getting really nervous as well. And when you ask consumers what their expectations are for both job losses and for inflation, they are expecting things to turn south this year as well. And to be honest with you, I feel like the American people have been better at understanding prediction predicting the economy than many of the analysts who do.

This for a living.

This for a living.

Yeah, good point.

Yeah, good point.

I mean, because they feel it and you can just really look around, I will say, you know, thermostatic public opinion is also a hell of a drug. I was just looking the other day at approval for the economy, and the day that Trump took office, Republicans went from net negative to net positive, and their approval of the economy Democrats went from net positive to net negative. So there's a lot of vibes talk out there as well. If we're all being honest, let's all be honest. That's I remember looking at economic data and Arizona during the right before the election, where if people were asked, how is your state doing, they would be like, oh, plus twenty five percent? Things are great, it's boom times here down in Arizona. They're like, how is America doing it? They're like, oh, it's a disaster, and you're like, well, the moment that Trump gets elected, they're like, oh, it's just we're booming. America's back for business again. So just saying partisanship is also a.

I mean, because they feel it and you can just really look around, I will say, you know, thermostatic public opinion is also a hell of a drug. I was just looking the other day at approval for the economy, and the day that Trump took office, Republicans went from net negative to net positive, and their approval of the economy Democrats went from net positive to net negative. So there's a lot of vibes talk out there as well. If we're all being honest, let's all be honest. That's I remember looking at economic data and Arizona during the right before the election, where if people were asked, how is your state doing, they would be like, oh, plus twenty five percent? Things are great, it's boom times here down in Arizona. They're like, how is America doing it? They're like, oh, it's a disaster, and you're like, well, the moment that Trump gets elected, they're like, oh, it's just we're booming. America's back for business again. So just saying partisanship is also a.

Hell of a drug.

Hell of a drug.

Let's put this next one up here on the screen of This is about the stock market. This is something I've been warning about here for quite some time from the Financial Times, the US has quote to nearly two thirds of global equity market value. But they say, analysts are seen danger in the huge bet on AI.

Let's put this next one up here on the screen of This is about the stock market. This is something I've been warning about here for quite some time from the Financial Times, the US has quote to nearly two thirds of global equity market value. But they say, analysts are seen danger in the huge bet on AI.

So they say, if you hold a.

So they say, if you hold a.

Global tracker by definition, then two thirds of that is the United States and a lot of that is Silicon Valley specifically. That means you are very vulnerable to this huge bet on AI. Now, our economy has significantly benefited from the fact that these tech stocks have gone vertical since two thousand and eight. That's how a huge portion of Americans who do have assets, who are not asset light individuals or persons inflicted with asset lightness have been able to capture some value and actually be able to retire with these great year over year gains in the S and P five hundred. But the real issue is that over the last five years, in particular, this huge explosion of value in these technology stocks means that Americans are very exposed to any correction, even a modest ten to twenty percent correction in the technology sector, which would have massive ramifications for the economy. It would mean unemployment, it would mean change to federal reserve. So it's not just something that would affect tech employees. It would affect all of us, There's no question about it. And really that's what they're appointing to right now with the current stock market and with all of these bigger questions too. About an Nvidia which currently saw a huge reduction the other day, we didn't get a chance to talk about it, but it was really because there are indications of how much they are currently inverting export controls to China, and so actually just enforcing US law huge impact there on end video. So you've got geopolitical attentions, you got the whole deep Seek thing in terms of efficiency, and then you still have these companies just pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into AI development every single quarter. Now they're doing that for a reason, and we're about to get to that in a little bit. But you know, if that comes up short, it could have serious problems. We could be in for a bad five years, is what I would say.

Global tracker by definition, then two thirds of that is the United States and a lot of that is Silicon Valley specifically. That means you are very vulnerable to this huge bet on AI. Now, our economy has significantly benefited from the fact that these tech stocks have gone vertical since two thousand and eight. That's how a huge portion of Americans who do have assets, who are not asset light individuals or persons inflicted with asset lightness have been able to capture some value and actually be able to retire with these great year over year gains in the S and P five hundred. But the real issue is that over the last five years, in particular, this huge explosion of value in these technology stocks means that Americans are very exposed to any correction, even a modest ten to twenty percent correction in the technology sector, which would have massive ramifications for the economy. It would mean unemployment, it would mean change to federal reserve. So it's not just something that would affect tech employees. It would affect all of us, There's no question about it. And really that's what they're appointing to right now with the current stock market and with all of these bigger questions too. About an Nvidia which currently saw a huge reduction the other day, we didn't get a chance to talk about it, but it was really because there are indications of how much they are currently inverting export controls to China, and so actually just enforcing US law huge impact there on end video. So you've got geopolitical attentions, you got the whole deep Seek thing in terms of efficiency, and then you still have these companies just pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into AI development every single quarter. Now they're doing that for a reason, and we're about to get to that in a little bit. But you know, if that comes up short, it could have serious problems. We could be in for a bad five years, is what I would say.

Well, and it doesn't even have to come up short. It just can be that, you know, deep Seek and other open platforms are able to suck up a lot of the value as well, So it could even be that it's not that they underperform in terms of their technological development. It's just that there's far more global competition than has anticipated. I mean, I'm quite convinced that we are in a bubble. Just a question to me of whether or not that bubble is going to pop and the lengths that politicians will certainly go to to make sure that the stock market continues to churn, because that's you know, that's been a goal, in a priority obviously for many years now. But we talk about the Magnificent seven group of stocks, and you're talking about how dominant the tech sector is. That's Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, nvidiaan Tesla. They hold almost a third of the S and P five hundred's market value, and this article points out that the price to earnings ratio of that index is at its highest level since the early two thousand since yep, you guys remember what happened to the early two thousands. That's when you had the dot com bubble and ultimate crash. So again, they're going to keep trying to do what they can to keep the stock market inflated. But I don't to me, it's pretty undeniable that we are in a fairly significant bubble, and the fact that these handful of companies comprises such a large portion of the stock index, and that that stock index comprises such a large portion of the overall market activity is another just looming massive risk and exposure as we're looking at these things. And this is a good segue too into our next segment, which is specifically about AI and where we're headed with that, which is also kind of terrifying.

Well, and it doesn't even have to come up short. It just can be that, you know, deep Seek and other open platforms are able to suck up a lot of the value as well, So it could even be that it's not that they underperform in terms of their technological development. It's just that there's far more global competition than has anticipated. I mean, I'm quite convinced that we are in a bubble. Just a question to me of whether or not that bubble is going to pop and the lengths that politicians will certainly go to to make sure that the stock market continues to churn, because that's you know, that's been a goal, in a priority obviously for many years now. But we talk about the Magnificent seven group of stocks, and you're talking about how dominant the tech sector is. That's Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, nvidiaan Tesla. They hold almost a third of the S and P five hundred's market value, and this article points out that the price to earnings ratio of that index is at its highest level since the early two thousand since yep, you guys remember what happened to the early two thousands. That's when you had the dot com bubble and ultimate crash. So again, they're going to keep trying to do what they can to keep the stock market inflated. But I don't to me, it's pretty undeniable that we are in a fairly significant bubble, and the fact that these handful of companies comprises such a large portion of the stock index, and that that stock index comprises such a large portion of the overall market activity is another just looming massive risk and exposure as we're looking at these things. And this is a good segue too into our next segment, which is specifically about AI and where we're headed with that, which is also kind of terrifying.

Yes, artificial general intelligence.

Yes, artificial general intelligence.

So Azra Klein over at the New York Times just had a really good interview with Benby Cannon, and he was a White House advisor on AI and a professor at Georgetown, and he has a prediction that AGI, artificial general intelligence is in the Trump administration. I will say, if you watched our coverage during the inauguration, I'm pretty sure we were both talking about that and we're like, listen, you know, all of this doge everything it could be could be a footnote to what the actual story of the entire Trump administration actually is, which is the development of artificial general intelligence. Just as when people go back and write the history of the first Trump term, it'll be the Trump Revolution of twenty sixteen and COVID.

So Azra Klein over at the New York Times just had a really good interview with Benby Cannon, and he was a White House advisor on AI and a professor at Georgetown, and he has a prediction that AGI, artificial general intelligence is in the Trump administration. I will say, if you watched our coverage during the inauguration, I'm pretty sure we were both talking about that and we're like, listen, you know, all of this doge everything it could be could be a footnote to what the actual story of the entire Trump administration actually is, which is the development of artificial general intelligence. Just as when people go back and write the history of the first Trump term, it'll be the Trump Revolution of twenty sixteen and COVID.

Those are the two things.

Those are the two things.

It probably the most important things actually came out of those years in retrospect. So let's take a listen here to some of ben By Cannon's analysis on artificial general intelligence, his predictions, and also some of the major policy implications behind it.

It probably the most important things actually came out of those years in retrospect. So let's take a listen here to some of ben By Cannon's analysis on artificial general intelligence, his predictions, and also some of the major policy implications behind it.

So it sort of pretty big off on this question a little bit. By saying you're not a labor economist, I will say.

So it sort of pretty big off on this question a little bit. By saying you're not a labor economist, I will say.

That I have not a labor economist here or not.

That I have not a labor economist here or not.

I will promise you the labor economists do not know what to do about AI. Yeah, you were the pop advisor for AI. You were at the nerve center of the government's information about what is coming. If this is half as big as you seem to think it is, it's going to be the single most disruptive thing to hit labor markets ever, given how compress the time period in which it will arrive. This right, It took a long time to lay down electricity, it took a long time to build railroads.

I will promise you the labor economists do not know what to do about AI. Yeah, you were the pop advisor for AI. You were at the nerve center of the government's information about what is coming. If this is half as big as you seem to think it is, it's going to be the single most disruptive thing to hit labor markets ever, given how compress the time period in which it will arrive. This right, It took a long time to lay down electricity, it took a long time to build railroads.

I think that is basically true, But I want to push back a little bit. So I do think we are going to see dynamic in which it will hit parts of the economy first. It will hit certain firms first, but it will be an uneven distribution process.

I think that is basically true, But I want to push back a little bit. So I do think we are going to see dynamic in which it will hit parts of the economy first. It will hit certain firms first, but it will be an uneven distribution process.

I think it will be uneven, and that's I think what will be destabilizing about it in part. Right, if it were just even, then you might just come up with an even policy to do something about it. Sure you must have heard somebody think about this. You guys must have talked.

I think it will be uneven, and that's I think what will be destabilizing about it in part. Right, if it were just even, then you might just come up with an even policy to do something about it. Sure you must have heard somebody think about this. You guys must have talked.

Yeah, we did talk to economists and try to texture this debate in twenty three and twenty four. I think the trend line is even clearer now than it was then. I think we knew this was not gonna be a twenty three and twenty four question. Frankly, to do anything robust about this, it's going to require Congress, and that was just not in the cards at all. So it was more of an intellectual exercise than it was a policy.

Yeah, we did talk to economists and try to texture this debate in twenty three and twenty four. I think the trend line is even clearer now than it was then. I think we knew this was not gonna be a twenty three and twenty four question. Frankly, to do anything robust about this, it's going to require Congress, and that was just not in the cards at all. So it was more of an intellectual exercise than it was a policy.

Policies begin as intellectual exercises. Yeah, yeah, this is a kind of like. The ways that I'm pushing on this is that we have been talking about this, seeing this coming for a while. And I will say that as I look around, I do not see a lot of useful thinking here. And I grant that we don't know the shape of it. At the very least, I would like to see some ideas on the shelf for if the disruptions are severe, what we should think about doing. Does everybody move into the trades? What were the intellectual thought exercises that all these smart people at the White House who believe this was coming. You know, what were you saying?

Policies begin as intellectual exercises. Yeah, yeah, this is a kind of like. The ways that I'm pushing on this is that we have been talking about this, seeing this coming for a while. And I will say that as I look around, I do not see a lot of useful thinking here. And I grant that we don't know the shape of it. At the very least, I would like to see some ideas on the shelf for if the disruptions are severe, what we should think about doing. Does everybody move into the trades? What were the intellectual thought exercises that all these smart people at the White House who believe this was coming. You know, what were you saying?

So?

So?

I think, yes, we were thinking about this question. I think we knew it was not going to be a question we were going to confront in the president's term.

I think, yes, we were thinking about this question. I think we knew it was not going to be a question we were going to confront in the president's term.

I guess I'm trying to push like, was this not being talked about? There were no meetings, there were no you guys didn't have claud write up a brief of options.

I guess I'm trying to push like, was this not being talked about? There were no meetings, there were no you guys didn't have claud write up a brief of options.

Well, you know, we definitely didn't have Claude Ripe a brief because we had to get over government use of AI.

Well, you know, we definitely didn't have Claude Ripe a brief because we had to get over government use of AI.

See, but that's like itself slightly damning.

See, but that's like itself slightly damning.

Yeah, I mean, I I think, you know, I agree that the government has to be more forward leaning on basically all of these dimensions.

Yeah, I mean, I I think, you know, I agree that the government has to be more forward leaning on basically all of these dimensions.

You sit down with somebody and you start the conversation and like, the most transformative technology perhaps in human history, is landing into human civilization in a two to three year time frame, and you say, wow, that seems like a really big deal. What should we do? And then things get a little hazy right now. Maybe we just don't know. But what I've heard you kind of say a bunch of times is like, look, we have done very little to hold this technology back. Everything is voluntary, you know. The only thing we asked was a sharing of safety data. You know, now income the accelerationists, you know, Mark Andreson has criticized you guys extremely straightforwardly. Is this policy debate about anything? Is it just the sentiment of the rhetoric? Right like, if it's so big, but nobody can quite explain what it is we need to do or talk about, except for maybe export control is like, are we just not thinking creatively enough? Is it just not time?