Good morning, everybody, Happy Friday, Ryan Graham, great to see you, my friends.

Good morning, everybody, Happy Friday, Ryan Graham, great to see you, my friends.

Nice to see you, Cristl.

Nice to see you, Cristl.

Emily is going to jump on here when she is ready, but there are many things to discuss this morning. Once again, very hard to whittle down a quote unquote mini show for today, but we've got breaking news with regard to the Democrats cave with regard to the Republican ce our budget situation, so a lot of fallout from that one. We've got a bunch of new developments with regard to Ukraine. Yesterday the stock market ended in correction territory, so continued chaos and tumult there, and then we had some really significant court decisions as well with regard to Doge. In particular, multiple federal judge is ruling that those probationary employees have to be rehired. But Ryan, since we don't have Emily here yet, we can start with the demon dem conversation. That's right, So just a little bit of backstory, and I'm sorry that this gets into like annoyingly technical inside the Beltway kind of stuff, but the government is going to shut down tonight at midnight if they don't pass some sort of funding Republicans made a bet, effectively that Democrats would cave and go along with whatever funding resolution that Republicans put together. So they put together a partisan proposal that does things like raised defense spending, lower all kinds of domestic spending priorities. Ryan is intimately familiar with the details of how they're screwing over the DC public school system and DCCD city government. There's a provision in there that protects Republicans from having to ever take a vote on Trump's tariff program, which is increasingly, you know, totally unpopular. It also just hands to Trump and Elon the ability to basically do whatever they want, which, let's be honest, they already are, but this sort of codifies that they would have a blank check and be able to jade Evance actually told the Republican caucus that we've already got plans for how we're not even going to follow this budget plan. We're just going to do whatever we want. Rhino, get your reaction before I play some of the fall on here. But the other piece that's really important here is Republicans control the White House, they control the Senate, they control the House. This is one of the few times when they actually need Democrats for anything in order to keep the government open because they need to get that sixty vote threshold in the Senate, so they need seven or eight Dems. Probably Ran Paul is going to vote against this, which means they need eight Dems to vote with them to end a filibuster to be able to vote on this budget resolution. So it's one of the few moments when Democrats have leverage. Democrats in the House all hung together, Haqeme Jeffreys, to his credit, whipped against this Republican budget bill. Everybody except for one in the Democratic caucus voted against it. The Republicans had a similarly you know, partisan It was sort of like a lockstep party line vote. The Republicans control the House, so it passes through the House and it gets to the Senate. Chuck Schumer was making some noises like maybe he was going to fight, maybe this would be the place where he took a stand, and ultimately, yesterday evening, as many people would have anticipated, he decides that he's going to cave. So, first of all, Ryan, is there anything that you would add or clarify about that setup of where we are as of this morning.

Emily is going to jump on here when she is ready, but there are many things to discuss this morning. Once again, very hard to whittle down a quote unquote mini show for today, but we've got breaking news with regard to the Democrats cave with regard to the Republican ce our budget situation, so a lot of fallout from that one. We've got a bunch of new developments with regard to Ukraine. Yesterday the stock market ended in correction territory, so continued chaos and tumult there, and then we had some really significant court decisions as well with regard to Doge. In particular, multiple federal judge is ruling that those probationary employees have to be rehired. But Ryan, since we don't have Emily here yet, we can start with the demon dem conversation. That's right, So just a little bit of backstory, and I'm sorry that this gets into like annoyingly technical inside the Beltway kind of stuff, but the government is going to shut down tonight at midnight if they don't pass some sort of funding Republicans made a bet, effectively that Democrats would cave and go along with whatever funding resolution that Republicans put together. So they put together a partisan proposal that does things like raised defense spending, lower all kinds of domestic spending priorities. Ryan is intimately familiar with the details of how they're screwing over the DC public school system and DCCD city government. There's a provision in there that protects Republicans from having to ever take a vote on Trump's tariff program, which is increasingly, you know, totally unpopular. It also just hands to Trump and Elon the ability to basically do whatever they want, which, let's be honest, they already are, but this sort of codifies that they would have a blank check and be able to jade Evance actually told the Republican caucus that we've already got plans for how we're not even going to follow this budget plan. We're just going to do whatever we want. Rhino, get your reaction before I play some of the fall on here. But the other piece that's really important here is Republicans control the White House, they control the Senate, they control the House. This is one of the few times when they actually need Democrats for anything in order to keep the government open because they need to get that sixty vote threshold in the Senate, so they need seven or eight Dems. Probably Ran Paul is going to vote against this, which means they need eight Dems to vote with them to end a filibuster to be able to vote on this budget resolution. So it's one of the few moments when Democrats have leverage. Democrats in the House all hung together, Haqeme Jeffreys, to his credit, whipped against this Republican budget bill. Everybody except for one in the Democratic caucus voted against it. The Republicans had a similarly you know, partisan It was sort of like a lockstep party line vote. The Republicans control the House, so it passes through the House and it gets to the Senate. Chuck Schumer was making some noises like maybe he was going to fight, maybe this would be the place where he took a stand, and ultimately, yesterday evening, as many people would have anticipated, he decides that he's going to cave. So, first of all, Ryan, is there anything that you would add or clarify about that setup of where we are as of this morning.

No, that's about right, Yeah, And the Democrats met for a very long and what we were told testy lunch. They always have their their Tuesday lunches, and this one went extra long with you know, some Democrats arguing, look, we believe that this is an unconstitutional power grab and an effort to destroy the government and hand it over to billionaires. Chris Murphy, as we'll play later coming, you know, said publicly said just that much. In the meeting. A bunch of Democrats said that, like, this doesn't make sense. We have been out here saying that this is this is unconstitutional what they are doing, and it's a threat to our democracy. And now we're just going to rubber stamp it, which will then give our imprimaitor to it. We'll say this is now a bipartisan effort. And there was this whole gimmick that human was trying to do where let's vote for, you know, to move forward on the bill so that we're not filibustering it, but then we'll vote against it when it's on the Senate floor, and nobody's nobody's fooled by that anymore. So yeah, that's that's essentially, and I don't want to be too provincial But ye know, they're taking one point one billion dollars out of the d C operating budget, two hundred million out of the DC public schools budget starting immediately, like over the next year. Just that's just an absolutely extraordinary amount of money. And DC gets federal money because it is not a state, So the federal government insists on, you know, basically having control over the city. And I can't imagine like what that's going to mean for the for city services broadly, but in the in the schools in particular, they're already you know, facing layoffs and shortages and high class sizes, yeah, and dilapidated buildings.

No, that's about right, Yeah, And the Democrats met for a very long and what we were told testy lunch. They always have their their Tuesday lunches, and this one went extra long with you know, some Democrats arguing, look, we believe that this is an unconstitutional power grab and an effort to destroy the government and hand it over to billionaires. Chris Murphy, as we'll play later coming, you know, said publicly said just that much. In the meeting. A bunch of Democrats said that, like, this doesn't make sense. We have been out here saying that this is this is unconstitutional what they are doing, and it's a threat to our democracy. And now we're just going to rubber stamp it, which will then give our imprimaitor to it. We'll say this is now a bipartisan effort. And there was this whole gimmick that human was trying to do where let's vote for, you know, to move forward on the bill so that we're not filibustering it, but then we'll vote against it when it's on the Senate floor, and nobody's nobody's fooled by that anymore. So yeah, that's that's essentially, and I don't want to be too provincial But ye know, they're taking one point one billion dollars out of the d C operating budget, two hundred million out of the DC public schools budget starting immediately, like over the next year. Just that's just an absolutely extraordinary amount of money. And DC gets federal money because it is not a state, So the federal government insists on, you know, basically having control over the city. And I can't imagine like what that's going to mean for the for city services broadly, but in the in the schools in particular, they're already you know, facing layoffs and shortages and high class sizes, yeah, and dilapidated buildings.

And DC has long gotten a raw deal because it costs a lot to host the federal government in your city.

And DC has long gotten a raw deal because it costs a lot to host the federal government in your city.

Yes, and you cannot tax an embassy, you cannot tax a federal building, and you cannot tax a nonprofit. And what is Washington made up of? Exactly embassies, nonprofits and government buildings, and so there's very little tax base. So the deal is the federal government comes in and backstops some of that, not as much as they should, but some of it. And I think it shows how little ability Republicans have to actually do anything structural about the federal deficit. If the only way that they can achieve some savings is taking it from poor kids in Washington, d C. Right like that, that's not a game changer for you. Might make you happy for some twisted reason because you're sick, but it doesn't actually do anything about the federal deficit. We're talking about of this is that over ten years, this would reduce the federal budget deficit by seven billion dollars. And part of that is because they cut twenty billion from the IRS, which will they estimate and I think they underestimate. We'll add about add forty billion because there'll be sixty billion in extra cheating that we don't select as a result of this. I think there'll be a lot more. But let's say that that's right. So out of the seven billion they're saving over ten years, a billion of it is coming out of washing the DC's budget for the next year. That's cowardly, it's not impressive, and it's not a structural solution to what they think is a structural problem.

Yes, and you cannot tax an embassy, you cannot tax a federal building, and you cannot tax a nonprofit. And what is Washington made up of? Exactly embassies, nonprofits and government buildings, and so there's very little tax base. So the deal is the federal government comes in and backstops some of that, not as much as they should, but some of it. And I think it shows how little ability Republicans have to actually do anything structural about the federal deficit. If the only way that they can achieve some savings is taking it from poor kids in Washington, d C. Right like that, that's not a game changer for you. Might make you happy for some twisted reason because you're sick, but it doesn't actually do anything about the federal deficit. We're talking about of this is that over ten years, this would reduce the federal budget deficit by seven billion dollars. And part of that is because they cut twenty billion from the IRS, which will they estimate and I think they underestimate. We'll add about add forty billion because there'll be sixty billion in extra cheating that we don't select as a result of this. I think there'll be a lot more. But let's say that that's right. So out of the seven billion they're saving over ten years, a billion of it is coming out of washing the DC's budget for the next year. That's cowardly, it's not impressive, and it's not a structural solution to what they think is a structural problem.

Although it's hard to take them seriously that they really think that this is a structural problem when they're set to give away trillions intax cuts to rich people, so we're concerned about it.

Although it's hard to take them seriously that they really think that this is a structural problem when they're set to give away trillions intax cuts to rich people, so we're concerned about it.

Are about hundred it's hundreds of millions for weapons, billions for weapons, like all these different weapons programs are are singled out. A billion for this carrier, you know, hundreds of millions for these jets, hundreds of millions for these subs. Out of here, you're not serious.

Are about hundred it's hundreds of millions for weapons, billions for weapons, like all these different weapons programs are are singled out. A billion for this carrier, you know, hundreds of millions for these jets, hundreds of millions for these subs. Out of here, you're not serious.

Yeah, So there's something really interesting and unusual happening in this Democratic Party debate inter debate though, which is that? So Schumer and Kirsten Chillibrand both notably from New York, will come back to that sort of led the charge to try to convince their fellow Democratic senators to cave. And Schumer, of course is the minority leader, so he's the one that makes the announcement. Guys, I'm voting for cloture, I'm voting for this cr I am compelling enough of my Democratic colleagues to join me that we're going to give Republicans the votes that they need to be able to pass this thing through. And instantly there is absolute fury at Schumer, not just from you know, the AOC types, but really across the board, including fury that showed up immediately on MSNBC, which of course is normally their role is just a rubber stamp whatever it is that the Democrats decide. So let me go ahead and pull up. Also noteworthy this is you know Aaron Rupar that clipped this and other like sort of CenTra is like vote blue, reliable Democratic type and you know, typical of or really emblematic of how wide and broad the fury at this cave really is within the whole of the Democratic Party. So let's go ahead and take a listen to this kind of levers.

Yeah, So there's something really interesting and unusual happening in this Democratic Party debate inter debate though, which is that? So Schumer and Kirsten Chillibrand both notably from New York, will come back to that sort of led the charge to try to convince their fellow Democratic senators to cave. And Schumer, of course is the minority leader, so he's the one that makes the announcement. Guys, I'm voting for cloture, I'm voting for this cr I am compelling enough of my Democratic colleagues to join me that we're going to give Republicans the votes that they need to be able to pass this thing through. And instantly there is absolute fury at Schumer, not just from you know, the AOC types, but really across the board, including fury that showed up immediately on MSNBC, which of course is normally their role is just a rubber stamp whatever it is that the Democrats decide. So let me go ahead and pull up. Also noteworthy this is you know Aaron Rupar that clipped this and other like sort of CenTra is like vote blue, reliable Democratic type and you know, typical of or really emblematic of how wide and broad the fury at this cave really is within the whole of the Democratic Party. So let's go ahead and take a listen to this kind of levers.

The one thing they have leverages in the Senate where you need a filibuster proof majority on a cloture vote, that there's essentially an up constitutional assault on the government right now. And I think you would agree with that assault.

The one thing they have leverages in the Senate where you need a filibuster proof majority on a cloture vote, that there's essentially an up constitutional assault on the government right now. And I think you would agree with that assault.

These guys are the worst and we got to fight them every step of the way, as we say.

These guys are the worst and we got to fight them every step of the way, as we say.

But looks telling people, But he's telling people on the floor, we are not even going to listen to this c R. This is a people of paper that we will impound and rip up the moments that it's passed. If that's the case, how is voting for cloture not essentially an infra motor on the very same assault on the constitutional order.

But looks telling people, But he's telling people on the floor, we are not even going to listen to this c R. This is a people of paper that we will impound and rip up the moments that it's passed. If that's the case, how is voting for cloture not essentially an infra motor on the very same assault on the constitutional order.

They're already even without this CR, they're already doing it, right, Okay, they are gonna They did it to the Department of Education. But I can tell you I've been through shutdowns before, the old It's not that this CR is good. It's not that.

They're already even without this CR, they're already doing it, right, Okay, they are gonna They did it to the Department of Education. But I can tell you I've been through shutdowns before, the old It's not that this CR is good. It's not that.

Voting for it is good.

Voting for it is good.

It's horrible, but the alternative is worse.

It's horrible, but the alternative is worse.

And we And in addition, Chrises also made a good point with him, which is, hey, the people who would be most impacted by a shutdown are the federal government employees themselves. Their union said, don't vote for this. So how how can you justify, you know, caving in the situation and voting along with the Republicans and handing them even more unchecked power. And then, by the way, after his first guest is Chuck Schumer, the very next guest on Chris Haes is Bernie Sanders, who is out there making the case for why this is a you know, a horrific move for the Democratic Party.

And we And in addition, Chrises also made a good point with him, which is, hey, the people who would be most impacted by a shutdown are the federal government employees themselves. Their union said, don't vote for this. So how how can you justify, you know, caving in the situation and voting along with the Republicans and handing them even more unchecked power. And then, by the way, after his first guest is Chuck Schumer, the very next guest on Chris Haes is Bernie Sanders, who is out there making the case for why this is a you know, a horrific move for the Democratic Party.

Right in that clip, you guys can go back and watch it again. You have Hayes like audibly scoffing and laughing at the Senate Majority leader like that. That's where the that's where the Democratic Party is at this point. Just it just can't they can't be taken seriously.

Right in that clip, you guys can go back and watch it again. You have Hayes like audibly scoffing and laughing at the Senate Majority leader like that. That's where the that's where the Democratic Party is at this point. Just it just can't they can't be taken seriously.

Yeah no, that's that's exactly right. And you know it's not just that he made this decision in this moment. By the way, this vote is going to happen at some point today and you know, we expect it to go this way, but they are still under a lot of pressure from their constituents to you know, to go ahead and block this.

Yeah no, that's that's exactly right. And you know it's not just that he made this decision in this moment. By the way, this vote is going to happen at some point today and you know, we expect it to go this way, but they are still under a lot of pressure from their constituents to you know, to go ahead and block this.

It never fails to cave, yeah.

It never fails to cave, yeah.

I mean, he could fail to cave. You never know what's going to ultimately happen. But I mean this has been the thing that has been really wild, and we've been sending each other, you know, Will Stancil, who's like the prototypical moderate sort of anti left Democrat, who is posting you have to these people are worthless. They're the reason that the country is in the place that is today. We need to primary all of them. It's like, well, who is this guy You've got near a tandin out there retweeting Bernie Sanders clips. And then you know, I'll show you in moment some news articles about how even some of the like swing district Democrats who went out on a limb in their view, to vote to block this in the House. They're ready to write checks to AOC to primary Chuck Schumer. So this is the This is in my opinion. Mind, you cover this more closely than I do. This is the biggest rebellion I've ever seen within the Democratic Party because it isn't a progressive rebellion. It truly is the base moderate Democrats, you know, standard issue, normy Democratic base voters who are absolutely furious at the lack of fight and the lack of planning here, because, as I was going to say, it's not just that he caved, it's also that there was no messaging. There was no demand that was made, there was no plan, And we've known for months, I mean, we've been talking about since Trump was elected that there was going to be this shutdown fight and this would be a place where Democrats could use some leverage and take a stand. And yet nothing, absolutely nothing, And.

I mean, he could fail to cave. You never know what's going to ultimately happen. But I mean this has been the thing that has been really wild, and we've been sending each other, you know, Will Stancil, who's like the prototypical moderate sort of anti left Democrat, who is posting you have to these people are worthless. They're the reason that the country is in the place that is today. We need to primary all of them. It's like, well, who is this guy You've got near a tandin out there retweeting Bernie Sanders clips. And then you know, I'll show you in moment some news articles about how even some of the like swing district Democrats who went out on a limb in their view, to vote to block this in the House. They're ready to write checks to AOC to primary Chuck Schumer. So this is the This is in my opinion. Mind, you cover this more closely than I do. This is the biggest rebellion I've ever seen within the Democratic Party because it isn't a progressive rebellion. It truly is the base moderate Democrats, you know, standard issue, normy Democratic base voters who are absolutely furious at the lack of fight and the lack of planning here, because, as I was going to say, it's not just that he caved, it's also that there was no messaging. There was no demand that was made, there was no plan, And we've known for months, I mean, we've been talking about since Trump was elected that there was going to be this shutdown fight and this would be a place where Democrats could use some leverage and take a stand. And yet nothing, absolutely nothing, And.

That that's the key point. That they never articulated a message. Therefore they have no demand here. So if they imagine that they did, that's that enough Democrats grow spind here and they do block cloture today and we get a government shutdown. Then the media will come to Democrats and say, okay, what do you want? What's like, what's your demand? Right, if you don't like this budget, like what's your what's your counteroffer? What are you what are you demanding that Republicans do? And right now, all they kind of have is well, this whole thing is an unconstitutional power grab. It's like, okay, well, what do you want? Now? What they if if they were serious about that messaging, they could say, we're going to put into law, you know that any reductions in force, you know, done to federal you know, federal workforces must be done through congressional with congressional approval, Like that could be the thing that they would demand, or any any restructuring of the of the government must be done through Congress. And then that would require getting sixty votes in the Senate. So they're beasts. And then you could and you could, as as Americans like you could see the virtue in that, like, Okay, we think that the federal government is too big and it's disorganized, and there's a lot of waste, fraud abuse. Let's find it. Let's figure it out. Let's figure out how we can fund investigations into the waste and fraud. Let's see, let's see where we can streamline things. But they don't want it. They don't like they're they're not doing that. They're just they don't have anything. So I think that's I think Schumer understood that they didn't have a step to there, and I also think that Schumer.

That that's the key point. That they never articulated a message. Therefore they have no demand here. So if they imagine that they did, that's that enough Democrats grow spind here and they do block cloture today and we get a government shutdown. Then the media will come to Democrats and say, okay, what do you want? What's like, what's your demand? Right, if you don't like this budget, like what's your what's your counteroffer? What are you what are you demanding that Republicans do? And right now, all they kind of have is well, this whole thing is an unconstitutional power grab. It's like, okay, well, what do you want? Now? What they if if they were serious about that messaging, they could say, we're going to put into law, you know that any reductions in force, you know, done to federal you know, federal workforces must be done through congressional with congressional approval, Like that could be the thing that they would demand, or any any restructuring of the of the government must be done through Congress. And then that would require getting sixty votes in the Senate. So they're beasts. And then you could and you could, as as Americans like you could see the virtue in that, like, Okay, we think that the federal government is too big and it's disorganized, and there's a lot of waste, fraud abuse. Let's find it. Let's figure it out. Let's figure out how we can fund investigations into the waste and fraud. Let's see, let's see where we can streamline things. But they don't want it. They don't like they're they're not doing that. They're just they don't have anything. So I think that's I think Schumer understood that they didn't have a step to there, and I also think that Schumer.

But he's part of the reason why they didn't have He's the reason.

But he's part of the reason why they didn't have He's the reason.

He's the reason. Yeah, he's the.

He's the reason. Yeah, he's the.

Guy that was like, you were the one who was supposed to come up with that step two.

Guy that was like, you were the one who was supposed to come up with that step two.

So to him, he likes to get out of the way. Strategy. Stock market is crashing, Trump's approval rating is crashing, get out of the way. It's like a communist revolutionary strategy, like, you know, allow things to collapse and hype the contradictions.

So to him, he likes to get out of the way. Strategy. Stock market is crashing, Trump's approval rating is crashing, get out of the way. It's like a communist revolutionary strategy, like, you know, allow things to collapse and hype the contradictions.

That is that what's going on. Yes, well this was the James Carvel. I mean, this is what he said, basically, like roll over and play dead and let them destroy everything. I mean, I am a vig Oeland noted, and I think that there may be something to this that the two Democrats who led the charge to cave. Here are the two democratuct senators from New York Meanwhile, you know we're going to cover later in the show, markets and chaos. Certainly a government shut down would not be good for you know, their portfolios and their bottom line. So it's also certainly possible that you know, Wall Street got to them and it's basically like, you can't do this. This is going to be too bad for us. And you know that's a core constituency both for Kirsten Gilibrand and for Chuck Schumer. Let me go ahead and play aoc here on CNN. Who was you know? Really she really has led the charge, I would say, in terms of trying to bolster Democrats and trying to encourage them to have a spine in this situation. And she also got asked the question about whether she would talan Chuck sherm, I'm not sure if fasten this side or not, but let's go ahead and take a look at what we've got here.

That is that what's going on. Yes, well this was the James Carvel. I mean, this is what he said, basically, like roll over and play dead and let them destroy everything. I mean, I am a vig Oeland noted, and I think that there may be something to this that the two Democrats who led the charge to cave. Here are the two democratuct senators from New York Meanwhile, you know we're going to cover later in the show, markets and chaos. Certainly a government shut down would not be good for you know, their portfolios and their bottom line. So it's also certainly possible that you know, Wall Street got to them and it's basically like, you can't do this. This is going to be too bad for us. And you know that's a core constituency both for Kirsten Gilibrand and for Chuck Schumer. Let me go ahead and play aoc here on CNN. Who was you know? Really she really has led the charge, I would say, in terms of trying to bolster Democrats and trying to encourage them to have a spine in this situation. And she also got asked the question about whether she would talan Chuck sherm, I'm not sure if fasten this side or not, but let's go ahead and take a look at what we've got here.

Vote you think that's wrong.

Vote you think that's wrong.

I believe that's a tremendous mistake. Yeah. I think, well, first and foremost, the American people. If anyone has held a town hall or has seen what has been happening in town halls, American people, whether they are Republicans, independence. Democrats are up in arms about Elon Musk and the actual cut of federal agencies across the board. This Continuing Resolution codifies much of this chaos that Elon Musk is wreaking havoc on the federal government. It codifies many of those changes, It sacrifices and completely eliminates congressional authority in order to review these impulsive Trump tariffs that he's switching on and off. And on top of that, for folks who are concerned about effectiveness and government, this Republican extreme Spending Bill removes all of the guardrails and all of the accountability measures to ensure that money is being spent in the way that Congress has directed for it to be spent. This turns the federal government into a slush fund for Donald Trump and Elon Musk. It sacrifices congressional authority, and it is deeply partisan, and so to me, it is almost unthinkable why Senate Democrats would vote to hand the few pieces of leverage that we have away for free when we've been secure to protect social security, protect medicaid, and protect Medicare.

I believe that's a tremendous mistake. Yeah. I think, well, first and foremost, the American people. If anyone has held a town hall or has seen what has been happening in town halls, American people, whether they are Republicans, independence. Democrats are up in arms about Elon Musk and the actual cut of federal agencies across the board. This Continuing Resolution codifies much of this chaos that Elon Musk is wreaking havoc on the federal government. It codifies many of those changes, It sacrifices and completely eliminates congressional authority in order to review these impulsive Trump tariffs that he's switching on and off. And on top of that, for folks who are concerned about effectiveness and government, this Republican extreme Spending Bill removes all of the guardrails and all of the accountability measures to ensure that money is being spent in the way that Congress has directed for it to be spent. This turns the federal government into a slush fund for Donald Trump and Elon Musk. It sacrifices congressional authority, and it is deeply partisan, and so to me, it is almost unthinkable why Senate Democrats would vote to hand the few pieces of leverage that we have away for free when we've been secure to protect social security, protect medicaid, and protect Medicare.

You have it?

You have it?

So he goes on to say, hey, you know, would you challenge Chuck schumergency of course dodges that, but that is apparently a live issue. Now, Ryan, I'm going to let you speak to that. I'm going to put the dog so she stops sparking, be right back.

So he goes on to say, hey, you know, would you challenge Chuck schumergency of course dodges that, but that is apparently a live issue. Now, Ryan, I'm going to let you speak to that. I'm going to put the dog so she stops sparking, be right back.

Yeah, and we could put it up in a minute. But there's this. There was some reporting from Leesburg, Virginia, which is where Democrats are holding their annual kind of policy retreat. These House Democrats go, it's a bunch of bunch of members of Congress, lobbyists and reporters, you know, go to huddle for a couple of days, their set their strategy. And AOC was interviewed by reporters out there, and that's and that's where she was also getting pressed on whether or not she was going to challenge Schumer with with with members of Congress who were at that retreat, saying, look, I'm a centrist. They wouldn't put their names to it, cowards that they are. I'm a centrist, but I am ready to write a check to AOC right right here at this at this retreat if she will jump in the race against Chuck Schumer. It's interesting because Chuck Schumer felt an enormous amount of concern about AOC primarying him in twenty twenty right after or twenty twenty two. I guess is that when he was up twenty twenty two, so he's I guess he's not up until twenty twenty eight, so maybe he feels like he has time to let this kind of that this will not be a thing. Yeah.

Yeah, and we could put it up in a minute. But there's this. There was some reporting from Leesburg, Virginia, which is where Democrats are holding their annual kind of policy retreat. These House Democrats go, it's a bunch of bunch of members of Congress, lobbyists and reporters, you know, go to huddle for a couple of days, their set their strategy. And AOC was interviewed by reporters out there, and that's and that's where she was also getting pressed on whether or not she was going to challenge Schumer with with with members of Congress who were at that retreat, saying, look, I'm a centrist. They wouldn't put their names to it, cowards that they are. I'm a centrist, but I am ready to write a check to AOC right right here at this at this retreat if she will jump in the race against Chuck Schumer. It's interesting because Chuck Schumer felt an enormous amount of concern about AOC primarying him in twenty twenty right after or twenty twenty two. I guess is that when he was up twenty twenty two, so he's I guess he's not up until twenty twenty eight, so maybe he feels like he has time to let this kind of that this will not be a thing. Yeah.

I think they also, like I don't think they've fully adjusted to the reality where near where near a Tandon and Will Stanzel are hating them, you know, like they're used to some level of like minor, quashable, ignorable rebellion from the left flank of the Democratic Party, and I'm still seeing articles that are written that are like, the left is mad. It's like, yes, the left is mad, but that's actually not what's important here. What's noteworthy is that, you know, normal resistance Dems are disgusted with Democratic leadership and what that leads to. It's you know, it's an open question, but this is the most tea party like that the Democratic Party has ever been in. They're discussed with their own leadership, their discontent, enchantment, disenchantment with their own media, and their desire to, you know, to challenge some of these people and get them ount of there if they're not willing to fight.

I think they also, like I don't think they've fully adjusted to the reality where near where near a Tandon and Will Stanzel are hating them, you know, like they're used to some level of like minor, quashable, ignorable rebellion from the left flank of the Democratic Party, and I'm still seeing articles that are written that are like, the left is mad. It's like, yes, the left is mad, but that's actually not what's important here. What's noteworthy is that, you know, normal resistance Dems are disgusted with Democratic leadership and what that leads to. It's you know, it's an open question, but this is the most tea party like that the Democratic Party has ever been in. They're discussed with their own leadership, their discontent, enchantment, disenchantment with their own media, and their desire to, you know, to challenge some of these people and get them ount of there if they're not willing to fight.

And one critique of the of this will Stancil approach. You know, he comes he comes from the kind of centrist school of you know, fight harder Democrats, right, and so they always want to fight harder, and now he's ramping it up to eleven. They need to fight harder. But because he is so reluctant to embrace genuine like left politics, it's like, we'll fight harder for what he's like, well, fight harder against democrats. So that comes That means they should have pressed their charges against Trump faster. They should have impeached him harder, like classic rather than like you know, an actual substain of critique.

And one critique of the of this will Stancil approach. You know, he comes he comes from the kind of centrist school of you know, fight harder Democrats, right, and so they always want to fight harder, and now he's ramping it up to eleven. They need to fight harder. But because he is so reluctant to embrace genuine like left politics, it's like, we'll fight harder for what he's like, well, fight harder against democrats. So that comes That means they should have pressed their charges against Trump faster. They should have impeached him harder, like classic rather than like you know, an actual substain of critique.

Yeah, no, and that is certainly true, there's no doubt about it. Like you know, the I was talking to soccer about this yesterday, the Brian Tyler Cohen's The Midas Touch is becoming a little bit more ideological, I would say, and a progressive direction. But really the core of their critique is just stand up, fight harder, resist Trump more effectively. And you know you said this was a fascist threat. The fascist threat has arrived and now you're just like laying down and capitulating, and so that is the core of their critique. What's noteworthy, though, is that the people who are by and large satisfying that desire to see people who have a strategy and are putting up a fight are people like AOC, are people like Bernie. Most of the people who are demonstrating a backbone and putting up a fight in this moment happened to be on the progressive left. So you know, that's what's sort of interesting in this moment is like, yeah, I don't think it's particularly ideological, and yet the people who are there raising up as heroes at this point are the aocs and the Bernie's of the world. So for example, with this you know, centrist rebellion and them being like AOC we challenged humor, it's because they're excited about Medicare for all. It's for this reason. And also for these particular House Democrats, they feel like they were they say here, feel like they walked the plank. In the words of one member, they voted almost unanimously against the budget measure, only to watch Senate Democrats seemingly give it the green light. Complete melt in complete and utter meltdown on all text chains. A senior House Democrat said, people are curious. Some rank and file members floated the idea of angrily marching onto the Senate floor in protest. Others are talking openly about supporting primary challenges to senators who vote for the GP spending bill. And even you know, for AOC herself, who came in of course defeating a long time establishment member and started off with that protest outside in Nancy Pelosi's office. I mean, you literally wrote the book on her evolution. She has much more embraced the tactic of let me see what I can get on front, you know, on the inside. So for her to come out swinging against democratic leadership, even for her is a brain from the way that she's been operating the bulk of the time that she's been in the House, right.

Yeah, no, and that is certainly true, there's no doubt about it. Like you know, the I was talking to soccer about this yesterday, the Brian Tyler Cohen's The Midas Touch is becoming a little bit more ideological, I would say, and a progressive direction. But really the core of their critique is just stand up, fight harder, resist Trump more effectively. And you know you said this was a fascist threat. The fascist threat has arrived and now you're just like laying down and capitulating, and so that is the core of their critique. What's noteworthy, though, is that the people who are by and large satisfying that desire to see people who have a strategy and are putting up a fight are people like AOC, are people like Bernie. Most of the people who are demonstrating a backbone and putting up a fight in this moment happened to be on the progressive left. So you know, that's what's sort of interesting in this moment is like, yeah, I don't think it's particularly ideological, and yet the people who are there raising up as heroes at this point are the aocs and the Bernie's of the world. So for example, with this you know, centrist rebellion and them being like AOC we challenged humor, it's because they're excited about Medicare for all. It's for this reason. And also for these particular House Democrats, they feel like they were they say here, feel like they walked the plank. In the words of one member, they voted almost unanimously against the budget measure, only to watch Senate Democrats seemingly give it the green light. Complete melt in complete and utter meltdown on all text chains. A senior House Democrat said, people are curious. Some rank and file members floated the idea of angrily marching onto the Senate floor in protest. Others are talking openly about supporting primary challenges to senators who vote for the GP spending bill. And even you know, for AOC herself, who came in of course defeating a long time establishment member and started off with that protest outside in Nancy Pelosi's office. I mean, you literally wrote the book on her evolution. She has much more embraced the tactic of let me see what I can get on front, you know, on the inside. So for her to come out swinging against democratic leadership, even for her is a brain from the way that she's been operating the bulk of the time that she's been in the House, right.

And you know, if you think back, you know throughout history, like who was in the French underground resistance. You know, in Nazi occupied France, it was it was leftists, it was communists, it was socialists. The Centrists became part of vich France. You know, they collaborated with the incoming government, and that that was the case with resistance to fascism all over the world. And that's why you had socialists so popular for decades after World War Two all around the world, not just Europe but everywhere else where there was fascism and authoritarianism and Vietnam wherever it was. These socialists and communists, like the hardcore left that went underground, stuck to their principles and fought and died for their country. And if you were not active in that, you know, you were considered a trader for decades. It's after World War Two, and so the rhetoric now is the same, Like obviously we do not have Nazi occupied the United States, but the rhetoric coming from Democrats is the same, and they feel like they're under siege, and so they're turning to people who are actually willing to fight for something. Now, what happened is that because the socialists and communists fought for something, they were then given a hearing for their actual policy ideas, you know, after they after they came to power. So right now all they want from AOC and Bernie is this energy. They like the fight. Will they start listening to them on a policy level? Next? Is that is that step two of this party evolution, I don't know. And there's enormous corporate and you know, billionaire counterweight against that happening. Of course, Yeah, at least it opens up the possibility.

And you know, if you think back, you know throughout history, like who was in the French underground resistance. You know, in Nazi occupied France, it was it was leftists, it was communists, it was socialists. The Centrists became part of vich France. You know, they collaborated with the incoming government, and that that was the case with resistance to fascism all over the world. And that's why you had socialists so popular for decades after World War Two all around the world, not just Europe but everywhere else where there was fascism and authoritarianism and Vietnam wherever it was. These socialists and communists, like the hardcore left that went underground, stuck to their principles and fought and died for their country. And if you were not active in that, you know, you were considered a trader for decades. It's after World War Two, and so the rhetoric now is the same, Like obviously we do not have Nazi occupied the United States, but the rhetoric coming from Democrats is the same, and they feel like they're under siege, and so they're turning to people who are actually willing to fight for something. Now, what happened is that because the socialists and communists fought for something, they were then given a hearing for their actual policy ideas, you know, after they after they came to power. So right now all they want from AOC and Bernie is this energy. They like the fight. Will they start listening to them on a policy level? Next? Is that is that step two of this party evolution, I don't know. And there's enormous corporate and you know, billionaire counterweight against that happening. Of course, Yeah, at least it opens up the possibility.

Yeah, of course.

Yeah, of course.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I mean, given your coverage of the the Democratic Party and these fights, you know, going back years, do you see similarities with the Tea Party rebellion? Do you think we're going to see primary fights against some of these members who are deemed you know, insufficiently like insufficiently strong against Trump in this moment.

I mean, given your coverage of the the Democratic Party and these fights, you know, going back years, do you see similarities with the Tea Party rebellion? Do you think we're going to see primary fights against some of these members who are deemed you know, insufficiently like insufficiently strong against Trump in this moment.

It is funny that I'm talking about marching on the Senate because that's literally what a couple of uh Tea Party members did. M Tea Party kept passing uh you know, repeals of Medicare and cuts the government spending, and the Senate would just immediately dispatch with it and go back to kind of business usual. So they went down to the Senate physically and stood in the stood in the Senate chamber and we're like, you know, they're like, what do we have to do here? And they were people were like who are you guys, and why are you here? And kind of ushered them out. Now those guys control the party. Uh So there definitely are some similarities, you know, seeing Hayes shift or laugh not shift, but like laugh and space. Yeah, you know you needed the Tea party without Fox News would not have existed like it needed. It needs a giant media megaphone to change what the what the party rank and file understands as where they're supposed to be. Yeah, so if you get a shift from MSNBC and say that like the New York Times and CNN, then then yeah, you could see the party shift.

It is funny that I'm talking about marching on the Senate because that's literally what a couple of uh Tea Party members did. M Tea Party kept passing uh you know, repeals of Medicare and cuts the government spending, and the Senate would just immediately dispatch with it and go back to kind of business usual. So they went down to the Senate physically and stood in the stood in the Senate chamber and we're like, you know, they're like, what do we have to do here? And they were people were like who are you guys, and why are you here? And kind of ushered them out. Now those guys control the party. Uh So there definitely are some similarities, you know, seeing Hayes shift or laugh not shift, but like laugh and space. Yeah, you know you needed the Tea party without Fox News would not have existed like it needed. It needs a giant media megaphone to change what the what the party rank and file understands as where they're supposed to be. Yeah, so if you get a shift from MSNBC and say that like the New York Times and CNN, then then yeah, you could see the party shift.

I mean you also do have massive growth of these Minus Touch Brian Tyler, Cohen Kyle channel, like all of these liberal to you know, progressive left channels that are blowing up in size and are taking this boscher of you know, you you've got a fight, so you have that as a as a megaphone too. But yeah, if you have even if you're just covering this fight on MSNBC, that would be different then and you genuinely have you know, like Hayes head on Chuck Schrumer then immediately has on Bernie Sanders. Even if you're doing that, it's profoundly different from the way MSNBC has operated as just like whatever democratic leadership says we are backing that full stop. Other views are not even going to be like tolerated or represented here.

I mean you also do have massive growth of these Minus Touch Brian Tyler, Cohen Kyle channel, like all of these liberal to you know, progressive left channels that are blowing up in size and are taking this boscher of you know, you you've got a fight, so you have that as a as a megaphone too. But yeah, if you have even if you're just covering this fight on MSNBC, that would be different then and you genuinely have you know, like Hayes head on Chuck Schrumer then immediately has on Bernie Sanders. Even if you're doing that, it's profoundly different from the way MSNBC has operated as just like whatever democratic leadership says we are backing that full stop. Other views are not even going to be like tolerated or represented here.

Yeah, and if Schumer gets what he wants, which is the bottom falling out of the Trump administration, he may not end up getting credit for it. You know, He's people are going to remember that he facilitated it. And so somebody like a Chris Murphy or shots or somebody like that, yeah, might come in and take over the mantle from him.

Yeah, and if Schumer gets what he wants, which is the bottom falling out of the Trump administration, he may not end up getting credit for it. You know, He's people are going to remember that he facilitated it. And so somebody like a Chris Murphy or shots or somebody like that, yeah, might come in and take over the mantle from him.

Yeah. Yeah. A lot of people are saying, hey, let's get Chris Murphy as a Senate Minority leader and get this guy on it here, which is interesting. And Murphy is definitely one who's like sort of stepped up and understood actually you know new media. Also, he's always recording these straight to camera like here's how I'm thinking about things, and here's why I'm approaching it this way that I think has garnered him a lot of trust with the Democratic base. Let's go ahead and move on to what was going on in the markets yesterday. I haven't checked. They're open now. I haven't checked to see exactly what's going on. I know futures were up this morning, don't look me. I know futures are out this morning. But this is what things have been looking like. This is from how they're long at the washing post. S and P five hundred tumbled into a correction today, ten percent drop from its prior high on February nineteenth. Trump's comments today quote I'm not going to bed at all on tariffs, have exacerbated fears and frustrations with his economic plans. Today's losses S and P five hundred minus one point four, down minus one point three NASDAK minus two. And you can see what that looks like on the chart here. Since you know, starting in like November going till now now, the stock market has been on a sort of long and mostly unbroken upward march. But this is I saw, I actually think I have this. This is one of the fastest drops that we've seen in one hundred years. Joe Wisenthal says, there are a lot of Trump aligned voices telling people to calm down. Selves happen, and it's true people tend to grat panicking. But this is one of the fastest selloffs of the last century. While the president pursues a policy the virtually no economist will defend. And you know, Ryan, you were raising alarms about and I saw Johns Hopkins is now laying off two thousand workers. So, in addition to the tariffs, get a lot of attention on Wall Street. Understandable especially because Trump is they're on, they're off, they're back on, this part's on, this part's coming back on in April. I mean, it really is all over the place and hard to make a co I mean it's impossible for any literally anyone to make a coherent case of exactly what he's up to or why he's up up to it and why you know they're saying, oh, there's no pay, no games gain, is what Tommy Tuberville said. The Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnik, said that a recession will be quote unquote worth it, And the question remains, like worth it for what what is it that we're supposed to, you know, accept suffering on. What is the goal that we're supposed to accept suffering on? Behalf of? But in addition to the tariffs, you have this mass vesterity program with the federal government that is going to reverberate much outside of just DC and Virginia. Hey, m how's it going? She's getting plugged in?

Yeah. Yeah. A lot of people are saying, hey, let's get Chris Murphy as a Senate Minority leader and get this guy on it here, which is interesting. And Murphy is definitely one who's like sort of stepped up and understood actually you know new media. Also, he's always recording these straight to camera like here's how I'm thinking about things, and here's why I'm approaching it this way that I think has garnered him a lot of trust with the Democratic base. Let's go ahead and move on to what was going on in the markets yesterday. I haven't checked. They're open now. I haven't checked to see exactly what's going on. I know futures were up this morning, don't look me. I know futures are out this morning. But this is what things have been looking like. This is from how they're long at the washing post. S and P five hundred tumbled into a correction today, ten percent drop from its prior high on February nineteenth. Trump's comments today quote I'm not going to bed at all on tariffs, have exacerbated fears and frustrations with his economic plans. Today's losses S and P five hundred minus one point four, down minus one point three NASDAK minus two. And you can see what that looks like on the chart here. Since you know, starting in like November going till now now, the stock market has been on a sort of long and mostly unbroken upward march. But this is I saw, I actually think I have this. This is one of the fastest drops that we've seen in one hundred years. Joe Wisenthal says, there are a lot of Trump aligned voices telling people to calm down. Selves happen, and it's true people tend to grat panicking. But this is one of the fastest selloffs of the last century. While the president pursues a policy the virtually no economist will defend. And you know, Ryan, you were raising alarms about and I saw Johns Hopkins is now laying off two thousand workers. So, in addition to the tariffs, get a lot of attention on Wall Street. Understandable especially because Trump is they're on, they're off, they're back on, this part's on, this part's coming back on in April. I mean, it really is all over the place and hard to make a co I mean it's impossible for any literally anyone to make a coherent case of exactly what he's up to or why he's up up to it and why you know they're saying, oh, there's no pay, no games gain, is what Tommy Tuberville said. The Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnik, said that a recession will be quote unquote worth it, And the question remains, like worth it for what what is it that we're supposed to, you know, accept suffering on. What is the goal that we're supposed to accept suffering on? Behalf of? But in addition to the tariffs, you have this mass vesterity program with the federal government that is going to reverberate much outside of just DC and Virginia. Hey, m how's it going? She's getting plugged in?

Love? Would I pop in and you guys are in the middle.

Love? Would I pop in and you guys are in the middle.

We're talking about the markets. We already got through the democratic catastrophe, so we didn't want to hear what you had to say about that.

We're talking about the markets. We already got through the democratic catastrophe, so we didn't want to hear what you had to say about that.

I'm more towards what you guys think to be honest anyway, But I was just saying that, you know, in addition to the tariffs causing market termoil, you also have this austerity program with the federal government, which you know as one example of how that will have a massively larger effect than just what Elon is doing in DC.

I'm more towards what you guys think to be honest anyway, But I was just saying that, you know, in addition to the tariffs causing market termoil, you also have this austerity program with the federal government, which you know as one example of how that will have a massively larger effect than just what Elon is doing in DC.

Johns Hopkins just announced their laying off two thousand plus workers because of some of the funding freezes and uncertainty around you know, research and science. So you know, Ryan, what do you kind of make of the state of the economy and this market movement in particular a.

Johns Hopkins just announced their laying off two thousand plus workers because of some of the funding freezes and uncertainty around you know, research and science. So you know, Ryan, what do you kind of make of the state of the economy and this market movement in particular a.

Caveat on the Hopkins layoffs. I think about fifteen hundred of those were overseas directly directly related to USAID cuts.

Caveat on the Hopkins layoffs. I think about fifteen hundred of those were overseas directly directly related to USAID cuts.

Oh really, I didn't realize.

Oh really, I didn't realize.

That because Hopkins does a lot of so USA Idea was funding a bunch of research, you know, scientific research, and which again you know, soft power stuff, and we don't know the details of exactly what they were doing. So it's about four or five hundred here in the US they're getting laid off. But yes, you know, hiring freezes all over the place. And what you're hearing from Wall Street is we knew that that what that we knew there would be what they what Wall Street calls anti growth policies, which would be tariffs. But we thought that they would couple them, they would temper them and couple them with pro growth policies and what Wall Street calls I'm not endorsing these views what Wall Street calls pro growth policies basically tax.

That because Hopkins does a lot of so USA Idea was funding a bunch of research, you know, scientific research, and which again you know, soft power stuff, and we don't know the details of exactly what they were doing. So it's about four or five hundred here in the US they're getting laid off. But yes, you know, hiring freezes all over the place. And what you're hearing from Wall Street is we knew that that what that we knew there would be what they what Wall Street calls anti growth policies, which would be tariffs. But we thought that they would couple them, they would temper them and couple them with pro growth policies and what Wall Street calls I'm not endorsing these views what Wall Street calls pro growth policies basically tax.

Cuts, tax cuts for them.

Cuts, tax cuts for them.

Yeah, And so so far they're like, hm, we're getting a lot more anti growth policies than we are getting at this point pro growth policies. And I think they would might even be happier if the quote unquote anti grow both policies we're coherent, like okay, what like what is your tariff policy? And why are you doing it? Because then they can try to figure out how they're going to invest. You know, Wall Street is where capital gets allocated, and you know, some of it's absurd, like we're putting tariffs on Canadian wood. Then they're like, oh, we can't really put capital into growing more trees in the US, like we're growing the trees we can grow. That's it. But what they can do is then go to Siberia and try to buy more that crappy softer wood from Siberia made with North Korean save slave labor. But at least then they can plan that out. Right, So right right now, they're just kind of confused and waiting, and so that's going to tamp down investment and growth. And I just checked the tox so it's we're filming this. It's nine forty five. Yeah, and it's you know, they got a little they got a bounce in the morning. I think all the all these traders keep wanting to time the boy them right like, is this the bottom yet? Let me get in, Let me get in. So far everybody who has bought the dip has gotten washed out by okay, so we'll see.

Yeah, And so so far they're like, hm, we're getting a lot more anti growth policies than we are getting at this point pro growth policies. And I think they would might even be happier if the quote unquote anti grow both policies we're coherent, like okay, what like what is your tariff policy? And why are you doing it? Because then they can try to figure out how they're going to invest. You know, Wall Street is where capital gets allocated, and you know, some of it's absurd, like we're putting tariffs on Canadian wood. Then they're like, oh, we can't really put capital into growing more trees in the US, like we're growing the trees we can grow. That's it. But what they can do is then go to Siberia and try to buy more that crappy softer wood from Siberia made with North Korean save slave labor. But at least then they can plan that out. Right, So right right now, they're just kind of confused and waiting, and so that's going to tamp down investment and growth. And I just checked the tox so it's we're filming this. It's nine forty five. Yeah, and it's you know, they got a little they got a bounce in the morning. I think all the all these traders keep wanting to time the boy them right like, is this the bottom yet? Let me get in, Let me get in. So far everybody who has bought the dip has gotten washed out by okay, so we'll see.

Yeah. Well, because Trump continues emily to say things like this. Here he is talking about Canada, and this I think is the clip to where he says, you know, the tariffs are are definitely going on. I'm not changing. Let's take a listen.

Yeah. Well, because Trump continues emily to say things like this. Here he is talking about Canada, and this I think is the clip to where he says, you know, the tariffs are are definitely going on. I'm not changing. Let's take a listen.

No, I'm not looking. We've been ripped off for years, and we're not going to be ripped off anymore now. I'm not going to bend at all. Aluminum or steel or cars, We're not going to bend. We've been ripped off as a country for many, many years. We've been subjected to costs that we shouldn't be subjected to. In the case of Canada, we're spending two hundred billion a year to subsidize Canada. I love Canada, I love the people of Canada. I love I have many friends in Canada, the great one, Wayne Gretzky, the great Wayne Gretzky, the great one. But we have many people in Canada that are good friends of mine.

No, I'm not looking. We've been ripped off for years, and we're not going to be ripped off anymore now. I'm not going to bend at all. Aluminum or steel or cars, We're not going to bend. We've been ripped off as a country for many, many years. We've been subjected to costs that we shouldn't be subjected to. In the case of Canada, we're spending two hundred billion a year to subsidize Canada. I love Canada, I love the people of Canada. I love I have many friends in Canada, the great one, Wayne Gretzky, the great Wayne Gretzky, the great one. But we have many people in Canada that are good friends of mine.

But you know, the United.

But you know, the United.

States can't subsidize the country for two hundred billion dollars a year. We don't need their cars, we don't need their energy, we don't need their lumber, we don't need anything.

States can't subsidize the country for two hundred billion dollars a year. We don't need their cars, we don't need their energy, we don't need their lumber, we don't need anything.

That they.

That they.

That they get it. We do it because we want to be helpful. But it comes a point when you just can't do that. You have to run your own country.

That they get it. We do it because we want to be helpful. But it comes a point when you just can't do that. You have to run your own country.

So that's kind of the you know, the pitch he's making today, at least about why teriffs on Canada in particular makes sense, and you know what really caused kind of the market massive drop there later in the day were those comments that no, we're not going to bend at all because they have certain tarrafs already in place, and then much broader set of tariffs set to go into place on April second, the reciprocal teriffs plus supposedly going back to the you know, twenty five percent across the board terrace with Canada and Mexico at that point. So that's kind of where we are am.

So that's kind of the you know, the pitch he's making today, at least about why teriffs on Canada in particular makes sense, and you know what really caused kind of the market massive drop there later in the day were those comments that no, we're not going to bend at all because they have certain tarrafs already in place, and then much broader set of tariffs set to go into place on April second, the reciprocal teriffs plus supposedly going back to the you know, twenty five percent across the board terrace with Canada and Mexico at that point. So that's kind of where we are am.

Yeah, And I continue to think the only way to make any sense in Trump's mind of what's happening is that to the point about people trying to figure out what the bottom is here, he doesn't want anybody to be able to figure that out. And I don't particularly think that's the most effective way to bring jobs back to the United States and to prosecute these politically, So I don't think it's the most defensible approach. I think his logic is that he genuinely does not want anybody to know when he is going to stop. I think he does have plans to I don't think he goes through for a long time with all of this. I just I think he's way too sensitive to the market. So I think if this starts to be sustained, you'll start to see I mean, I think we've already seen some of it, some like kind of more targeted approaches. But I think his his strategy is genuinely leaving everybody, including his own top staff, out of the loop on what his personal plans are to like sort of wave the wand at any give a moment.

Yeah, And I continue to think the only way to make any sense in Trump's mind of what's happening is that to the point about people trying to figure out what the bottom is here, he doesn't want anybody to be able to figure that out. And I don't particularly think that's the most effective way to bring jobs back to the United States and to prosecute these politically, So I don't think it's the most defensible approach. I think his logic is that he genuinely does not want anybody to know when he is going to stop. I think he does have plans to I don't think he goes through for a long time with all of this. I just I think he's way too sensitive to the market. So I think if this starts to be sustained, you'll start to see I mean, I think we've already seen some of it, some like kind of more targeted approaches. But I think his his strategy is genuinely leaving everybody, including his own top staff, out of the loop on what his personal plans are to like sort of wave the wand at any give a moment.

Yeah, there was a moment there, ran I didn't quite get to it where he he sort of acknowledges that that borders are just arbitrary lines drawn, you know, yeah, so based open borders Trump. Okay, so here's a thread.

Yeah, there was a moment there, ran I didn't quite get to it where he he sort of acknowledges that that borders are just arbitrary lines drawn, you know, yeah, so based open borders Trump. Okay, so here's a thread.

That And not to harp too much on this, but that on this point on the lumber, he brought the lumber up again. Right, what do you mean, what do you mean we don't need their lumber like we.

That And not to harp too much on this, but that on this point on the lumber, he brought the lumber up again. Right, what do you mean, what do you mean we don't need their lumber like we.

Don't have especially at a time when construction materials have already you know, they were some of the highest ticket items in terms of how much their price increased due to inflation. So we have a massive housing shortage. You already cost too much to build, and so you're just exacerbating that and you know, we've been covering it, you guys know on this show relentlessly. How housing is just such a core issue, creating this sense of precarity and sense of frustration and ability to get ahead and this sort of like stable life. And yeah, you're you are actively increasing one of the main inputs. And there's other construction materials at play here as well, coming from Canada too, not to mention the eighty percent of our fertilizer from Canada, Like yeah, actually we do kind of any of that stuff.

Don't have especially at a time when construction materials have already you know, they were some of the highest ticket items in terms of how much their price increased due to inflation. So we have a massive housing shortage. You already cost too much to build, and so you're just exacerbating that and you know, we've been covering it, you guys know on this show relentlessly. How housing is just such a core issue, creating this sense of precarity and sense of frustration and ability to get ahead and this sort of like stable life. And yeah, you're you are actively increasing one of the main inputs. And there's other construction materials at play here as well, coming from Canada too, not to mention the eighty percent of our fertilizer from Canada, Like yeah, actually we do kind of any of that stuff.

Right that that's where that's where the fertilizer is. Like you could, you could produce a lot of phosphorus and fertilizer out of Florida, but that would require ripping up a lot of the communities there. And also, lumber is better the hot farther north that it grows, So we could get cheaper, better lumber from Canada, or we could get more expensive, crappier lumber from Russia. And what he's pushing us is towards Siberian lumber. So we're going to pay twenty thirty forty percent more for materials sure worse material cost to housing. And maybe the American people would do that if you were like, here's why we're doing that. Yeah, there is no why.

Right that that's where that's where the fertilizer is. Like you could, you could produce a lot of phosphorus and fertilizer out of Florida, but that would require ripping up a lot of the communities there. And also, lumber is better the hot farther north that it grows, So we could get cheaper, better lumber from Canada, or we could get more expensive, crappier lumber from Russia. And what he's pushing us is towards Siberian lumber. So we're going to pay twenty thirty forty percent more for materials sure worse material cost to housing. And maybe the American people would do that if you were like, here's why we're doing that. Yeah, there is no why.

To it right, and and I mean hard to like really sell people on a vision of we should be like, you know, getting more into the tree growing and fertilizer making business when in.

To it right, and and I mean hard to like really sell people on a vision of we should be like, you know, getting more into the tree growing and fertilizer making business when in.

All our national forests and that wood isn't as good as the wood way up in the north, and then we don't have national forests anymore.

All our national forests and that wood isn't as good as the wood way up in the north, and then we don't have national forests anymore.

Is that right?

Is that right?

Is that the plan right?

Is that the plan right?

Exactly exactly? I wanted to quickly go through this thread because I thought it had some interesting pieces and then we can move on to the next topic. You can either go to Ukraine or we can go to the court decisions.

Exactly exactly? I wanted to quickly go through this thread because I thought it had some interesting pieces and then we can move on to the next topic. You can either go to Ukraine or we can go to the court decisions.

But was sorry, would say super quick point is that if you have, if you telegraph a clear plan, if you want to reshore some like lumber for example, you're you're helping people make that bet on certain states or certain strategies for US lumber or US manufacturing or whatever. But if people don't know, maybe they're just going to bet elsewhere where it seems more stable.

But was sorry, would say super quick point is that if you have, if you telegraph a clear plan, if you want to reshore some like lumber for example, you're you're helping people make that bet on certain states or certain strategies for US lumber or US manufacturing or whatever. But if people don't know, maybe they're just going to bet elsewhere where it seems more stable.

So anyway, yeah, that's that's exactly right, Like, you know, if the chaos makes it impossible for anyone to actually bet on like reshoring anything because you just you just don't know. So here's here's a timeline the trade war, and they were ramped up into February. First, market peaked on the nineteenth, even as more tariffs went live in early March. The real turning point was March sixth. That's when Trump said he's not watching the stock market. So we've that's been sort of the story of this market movement. Is Trump's words really causing these these cycles of crashes. Buyers have been crushed in this downturns and is something you mentioned before, Ryan SMP has not seen in back to back gains for fifteen consecutive trading days, longest streak since April twenty twenty four, also the fifth longest stress since the twenty twenty pandemic. Market uncertainty is at its highest since twenty twenty. Current drawdown in the Magnificent Seven. Now, this is something we've been talking a lot about and it creates tremendous risk in terms of our economy and certainly our stock market. You know, these seven stocks make up a huge percentage of our stock market, and most of the growth that we've been seeing has been tied to these stocks. Tesla has led the the selloff. Here, Fifth down fifty percent, Crazy, Nvidia down, Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple all taking significant losses. So that's the magnificent seven. Hedge funds sold global stocks at their fastest pace in four years. So the hedge funds are, you know, selling off, and I think those institutional sales are part of what is leading the significant decline. He says. This is the fastest drop of such magnitude since twenty twenty. Also, this chart comparison of Trump one point zero this green line versus Trump two point zero. That's how things are looking currently down eight percent since January twentieth, which exceeds any drawdown scene in Trump's one point zhos first year. Clearly been a shift in Trump's approach. Furthermore, sentiment has shifted in the complete opposite direction. The survey now has a bearish reading fifty nine point two percent. You've also got the US lagging global market. So again an indication like as if you needed any, that this is something that's really specific to the particular policies that are being pursued here in the US of A and not reflective of some larger global phenomenon. And then here's some one last thing that's that's interesting too is that there was some good inflation data this week that seemed to indicate Okay, inflation is coming down, moving in the right direction. I will say there are some caveats to that, number one being that this was a measure of inflation prior to most of the tariffs being put into place, so still a lot of question marks about what that impact will ultimately be. But they say, you know, even with those numbers coming in better than expected, they're still continued to that really didn't change the game or make people, you know, put people more at ease in terms of this this sell off in the economic position. And you know, I've seen all kinds of measures of you know, possibility of recession on the rise actually can pull up. JP Morgan had this very like the dramatic statement, I'll find that while you, guys, Emily, why don't you go ahead and reflect on some of those comments from that thread.