Krystal and Saagar discuss Dems plot fake shutdown resistance, GOP Senator downplays market crashes, Gov spending hits record high despite DOGE.
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Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal.
Indeed, we do lots of big breaking news updates, So we've got the very latest for you on that effort to pass a cr as Senate DEM's plot what their move will be. We got some new inflation numbers, potentially good news for this White House amidst economic turmoil. Some interesting new comments from Tommy Tubberville as well. Do so far in terms of the alleged cut spending goal not really making a dentctually. Spending is up after even all of their chainsaw efforts, So break down what that means. We've got the latest for you on Machmu Khalil and some other censorship efforts. We've got Zionists claiming a scalp in the Trump administration.
This was an important battle.
Didn't want to let this one slide by Greasy Gavin meets sloppy Steve. Have some highlights from that podcast to share with you and what it all means about the future of the Democratic Party. And it is the end of an era at Southwest Airlines. They are now going to charge for bags, joining the rest of the industry.
So very sad to see.
It's sad to see because I think it just really is a demarcation point in the overall US economy and the consumer experience. We live truly in the idiocracy in the world in which we're all just going to get it charged for everything in corporate States of America.
It's sad. It's sad. Christal, what do you got here? This is a new one for you. Chris has got an energy drink on the cask. Usually I'm only calani.
Yeah, by the way, we're not getting paid for this not getting.
Paid this is it's sort of like a taste, like a cream sickle. They're delicious, and it's almost like bottled cracks. Okay, there you go halfway through it.
So still getting more interesting as we go along.
All right, let's get to the cr I hate this topic because it's so like in the weeds DC. But the TLDR is if the House in the Senate did not pass some sort of budget funding, then the government is going to shut down in a day's time. The House Republicans were able to pass a continuing resolution.
They lost one vote from their caucus.
They gained one vote from the Democratic caucus, but pretty much done a party line vote. They did not negotiate with the Democrats on this. I'll give you a few more details about the CR ups defense spending a little bit. It reduces some domestic spending by a bit. It has some other provisions in it that Democrats really object to. So that passes the House on more or less a party line voote.
Then it goes to the Senate.
Well, the sun is a little more interesting because of the filibuster rules, they have to get seven Democratic senators because Rand Paul has already said he is not going to vote for it. So it was looking yesterday like the Democratic senators were just going to cave and vote for this CR. And this is extremely consequential because it is really the only time when Republicans are going to need Democrats for anything at all, So this is truly their only moment of leverage. The Democratic base is very adamant that they do not want Democratic senators to help Republicans to fund the government and give what they see as a cart blanche to Trump and to Elon to continue doing whatever the hell that they want to do. So there has been a mass mobilization of the Democratic base to call their senators and tell them vote no. So yesterday it was a real open question. It looked like they were going to cave. And then Chuck Schumer gets on the Senate floor and seems to indicate a different strategy.
Let's take a listen to a little bit of what he has to say.
Republicans chose a partisan path drafting their Continuing Resolution without any input, any input from Congressional Democrats. Because of that, Republicans do not have the votes in the Senate to invoke cloture on the House CR. Our caucus is unified on a clean April eleventh CR that will keep the government open and give Congress time to negotiate by parties in legislation that can pass. We should vote on that. I hope, I hope our Republican colleagues will join us to avoid a shutdown on Friday.
So what he floats there is a thirty day quote unquote clean CR, which means the same funding levels as currently exists, no messing around, no different provisions, no rolling back this, no adding money to defense, et cetera, just for thirty days so that they can negotiate on a broader package. So initially there were a lot of you know, democratic activists who are like, oh my god, they're actually not going to cave. But what it looks like is actually probably happening, although not this is a done deal yet. Is that they are more it's less that they're not going to cave and more that they're coming up with a strategy to try to trick their own base into thinking that they're fighting for something.
So let's put this up on the screen.
This is the latest Fromanu Raju over at CNN. He says John Thune, who's the Senate Majority leader now and takes the procedural step to bring the House spending bill to the floor. The vote would occur Friday morning, hours before the government shut down deadline. Un less there's an agreement to have it sooner, sixty votes would be needed. Schumer is threatening to block it, but senators on both sides think and agreement to give Dems an amendment vote for a thirty day extension, which would fail, could help end the standoffs so effectively. Democrats strategy appears to be that they're going to push for this show vote on a thirty day cr They're going to vote for closures, so they're going to you know, not filibuster the whole thing. Their little thirty day show vote will fail. But since they've already voted for cloture, that means that Republicans can move forward with their and pass it with a bare majority. They no longer need the Democrats and things move forward. So, like I said, I know that was a lot, but the TLDR is that Democrats appear to be trying to come up with a plan to trick their own base into thinking they are not caving, when they in fact are caving.
Right it's hilarious because it would take people like us to have to sit here and to explain it to everyone. But the point is is that this is actually fecklessness on their part because they're getting a lot of pressure to try and appear as if they're standing up to Trump. And if you compare it to let's say, the Tea Party, I mean, they would have no qualms whatsoever of voting this thing down. They're like, absolutely not, you're going to give us what we want. Oh, the houses out of town. We don't care shut the government down. If you think about it too, you know, the White House seems to think that they would be on strong grounds for a shutdown. I don't think that that's true because people usually blame the party and power of all three, and the executive largely is the person who absorbs all of that. I think actually one reason I heard floated is that Democrats are terrified of a shutdown because then Trump gets to decide who is essential government personnel and who's not, so it would only be even easier for him and Doged to fire the employees. But broadly, people should be aware here the Democratic leadership is rudderless.
They have no idea what they're doing.
The Democratic senators are actually getting quite a bit of calls and others to their offices telling them, hey, please like do something, and they just refuse basically to even try. So they're trying to show people, oh, well, we did this, But I mean, I don't think.
That people, voters and others are going to buy it.
They're going to see at the end of the day, nothing goes through the Senate unless the Democrats want it to pass. Like, let's be clear here in a world, in a world without the filibuster, and he still needs sixty votes for cloture.
If the Dems vote for it, they know exactly what they're doing.
Yeah, I think that's right, and so I think they if this is what they go forward with with.
Again, not a done deal yet.
And guys, if you want them to stand up, you can call them and let them know.
And I know many people out.
There that are, but I do think if they you know, it's almost worse. Like just just if you want this thing to go, then just freaking vote for just vote for it, Like, don't mess around, don't try to trick people into thinking you're fighting when really you're not.
Like don't. Don't do that.
I think that will actually just piss people off even more because they're going to see through the trick. Let me go ahead and play Primeilagiapola, of course, a progressive leader in the House, warning Democratic senators of exactly what Tager is saying, which is, you may face a real backlash if you go along with Republicans and this one moment when they need you and when you have some leverage to potentially extract something from them in this negotiation.
Let's take a listen to what she has to say.
They should refuse to allow this bill to pass in the Senate. If they don't, I think there's going to be a huge backlash from across the country, and I think all of them will. You know, we'll have to deal with the consequences of that.
The Republicans have the White House, the Senate, and the House. If they want to do this, and if they want to screw over the American people, they can do this with their votes and their party. I do not believe that Democrat ship participated.
And to Sager's point about the Democratic leadership being rudderless, we have all known for months now that this shutdown fight was coming on March fourteenth, and yet they had not worked out a strategy, they hadn't really aggressively messaged around it. So you know that there isn't a clear cut like Okay, here's what we're demanding in exchange, like we will support we don't want to shut down the government because we're Democrats and we support the government whatever.
But here's our list of demands.
None of that has been developed, none of that has been messaged to address what Sager was saying too about you know, the concern that listen. Number one, for Democrats, it's uncomfortable because they are the party of like, hey, we actually think that government does some good things. It's a different ideological orientation versus the Tea party that's like screw government whatever, we don't care if it shuts down.
So that is uncomfortable.
But to address that core concern of like, okay, so if there's a government shutdown, then maybe you're just handing power to Trump an elon to say who's essential and who's not. And I just look at that and I'm like, what world are you living in? Because they're already operating that way. I mean, we just got the you know, Department of Education just got slashed by half this WEEKAID was just completely dismantled, as was the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Like probationary employees were mass fired across the government. Elon endger deciding what they feel like spending and what they don't. So that ship has sailed. Like they already are calling the shots on literally everything. They are racking up losses in terms of the court system, but as you can tell, like that is taking a long time for any of that to be enforced or final decisions to be made, et cetera. And meanwhile they're just rolling through and doing them whatever they want. So if you think that you're protecting something by going along with this and continuing like the government is effectively already in a shutdown in a certain sense because Trump and Elon have already claimed those powers for themselves.
Yeah, I think it is just ironic that really what we're watching is a fall apart of the democratic strategy, which doesn't have a singular pillar like last time, which was just Russiagate, and so this time around, whenever they're trying to be and find a message, they just don't really know quite what to do. I also think that there is an elderly aspect to this with Schumer. Where Schumer is a traditionalist of the White House, he's not somebody who's ever read the base and or its moment, so his political movement is not one that at least like with McConnell. McConnell was an old school creature, but he understood very clearly the assignment. If we'll all remember the famous quote of him in two thousand and nine, and he's like, our job is to get Barack Obama not reelective period. He's like, we're not here to do anything else. Our job is to defeat Obama.
That's it.
We need to hold up the president's agenda. And he laid it out very clearly. That was a big scandal in Washington at the time, but if we're looking back, it was the correct strategy if you were working on behalf of the Republicans, because with the republic and saw is their base hated Obama and they didn't want anything to do with any senator or whoever was going to play ball. And that happened in the Tea Party wave. Many of the people who got took out many of the incumbents, even in their primaries, were those who saw as too conciliatory to the administration. So at a political level, they just have no clue yet what they're dealing with right now. And I do think it's a I think it's a big problem for them.
I mean, I would be inclined to agree with your assessment that it's like elderly garontocracy is I think that's part of it. But then when you see Bernie Sanders, who was like eighty three years old, he's out there and like leading charged. I mean, Bernie has, Bernie has Bernie is the leader of the Democratic Party right now, like he has stepped into that role.
I think that is you know.
I don't think that's true.
I think that is absolutely true.
In terms of the he is the one person who is like setting the bar of Okay, here's what we're going to do, and here's how we're going to move forward, and here's how we're messaging. That's what I mean by he is the leader of the Democratic Party at this point. It's sure as hell is not Chuck Schumer. And so I think it's less an issue of his age and more an issue of a like a cowardice that has set in at the core of Democratic Party electeds, especially like elected leaders. They are so afraid of rocking the vote, of facing some blowback, of having to make a case of really getting into the arena. And that's to me what really comes through here, because again we've known the shutdown fight was coming. Okay, if you don't think this is the place to take a stand and like put your chips down and like use what little bit of leverage you have, then what is your other plan, Like give an alternative where you're like, okay, well, no, we're not going to do it.
But here's where we really think we're going to take a stand.
It's not gonna be on reconciliation, which is the next big thing that's going to come up, because that doesn't require you, that requires only a bare majority vote in the Senate. There is no sixty vote fili on the reconciliation bill. So where is the other place where you're going to take any sort of a stand. So that's why I mean it really it's just so clear that they.
Are not up to the moment.
You know.
It's like it's telling that they feel at least some pressure from the base, like okay, we've got to at least try to trick them into thinking we're fighting for something. But I think your fools if you think they're really going to fall for it. The last thing I wanted to mention about this CR, and this will transition into the block we're about to do about the economy, which is just a little interesting nugget in there. You know, they put these little provisions in and think that nobody's really going to notice. They can put this up on the screen. So inserted into this Continuing Resolution is an item to what The New York Times describes as quietly seed power to cancel Trump's tariffs, avoiding a tough vote. So it says, House Republican leaders on Tuesday quietly moved to shield their members from how to vote on whether to end President Trump's tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, tucking language into the dural measure that's the CR that effectively removes their chamber's ability to undo the levees. The maneuver was a tacit acknowledgment of how politically toxic the issue become for their party. Another example of how the All Republican Congress is seating its power to the executive branch. So They don't want to have to take an up or down vote on Trump's teriffs because they don't want to get crosswise with Trump.
But business world hates the tariffs, tear the terifs are averia and popular at.
This point, so they're just like, okay, we just we're going to wash our hands of it and just let you do whatever, and we're not going to have any say in it.
What Here's that's really not surprising actually at all, because why would you want to take a tough vote? This is also part of the problem with all of these things getting lumped together as usual. They always don't want to make it so they have to take single up or downs. But I don't know, I'm curious to see if that's soak based reaction. I mean, my thing with the only reason I said, I don't think Bernie is the leader. I think that's a little bit of progressive wish casting. Like it's not like this democratic base is all on board with Medicare for all or all this other stuff.
They just want somebody to quote fight.
So Democrats, like you know, they want the act that's like the beating heart of like what they think is being a Democrat, right, now I don't know. I mean, I'm just skeptical because if this were true, then that guy's doorn would be winning, you know, hands down in the New York City primary, right, And it's just not going to happen. Like I mean I said, I think our editorial call, my call is Cuomo by fifty.
Like.
The truth is is that these traditional Democratic politicians and others, even if as long as they embody like somewhat of the fight, they seem to be massively more popular, you know, than any so called of like actual progressive politics. So I just don't think we can say Bernie is quote the leader of the Democratic Party. I just think that the fight and all of that is being dispersed in popularity across the board. But there are still like serious policy differences and even like theoretical differences in power and.
All of that that are working out right now.
So let me let me parse that a little.
We could say more of this conversation with the block we have coming up about the Democrats. So first of all, I disagree with you that the base doesn't want to medic for all, even when I mean, when Bernie was losing to Joe Biden, still a overwhelming majority of Democratic base voters preferred medicare for all. But the reason they voted for Joe Biden is because they thought he was more electable and they wanted to defeat Trump, and that was their number They were convinced of that, and that was their number one issue. So it really, you know, didn't have Ultimately, the election didn't turn on medicare for all in the Democratic primary.
If it did, Bernie, they would have picked Bertie Sanders.
That's number one, But number two, you're absolutely right that, you know, from talking to Brian Tyler Cohen, you get the sense like it's not that Democratic based voters have suddenly become like more progressive in terms of their ideological valance.
They just want someone who will fight.
So if that person is Jasmine Crockett, who is more mixed in terms of her you know, the ideological valance of her, she's been like pro Crypto, she's been more like pro Israel. But she is a fighter and she's very charismatic and she's not afraid to get in there and mix it up. Like they will take her, they will take al Green, they will take Bernie Sanders, they will take aoc. It really you're one hundred percent correct that it has much less to do with where they position themselves on a left right spectrum and more about where they position themselves on. Are you willing to actually stand up and fight and do something and at least show that you're upset about what's going on in this era? And so I think that's that's really sort of the core here. And you know, if you are a Democratic leader who thinks that the right thing to do is, for example, to just like, you know, hang out and make nice with Charlie Kirk all day, it doesn't really matter where you are on the ideological spectrum, They're going to see that as totally unaccepted.
I want to see to see if the because for this theory to work, then these people have to start actually getting serious primary opponents and losing. And so I mean, we're not really going to find that out first, Yeah, another eighteen months, but I'm curious, like, let's watch everybody and if anybody sees a serious challenge to a real Democratic incumbent, let us know, because I want to track those camp pains and maybe we can compile like a spreadsheet or something and then check we can.
Have the justice and props people on and talk to them about what I'd be curious.
I mean no offense to them, though, but it's like, you know, they don't have a very good track record here. So that's what I just I am very skeptical of all these people's political judgment. I have not yet seen any truth to the fact that these folks are truly harnessing anything to like be able to win an election. You know, you can have some power, you can have some social media buzz and that, but actually winning is is a very very different thing to.
The other person.
I'm still very skeptic.
The other people that'd be interesting to have on are the indivisible people, Yeah, because they're not they're not burning people. In fact, they were sort of adversarial to some of the burning primary candidates.
It was I forget Indivisially.
They sprung up after Trump was elected the first time, and they were like these sort of core resistance group that sprung up in counties across the country. And so they are the ones who again they're they're ideologically they're just like squarely in the sort of democratic liberal mainstream and thoroughly disgusted with the lackluster rudderless approach of the Democratic Party. So you'd be interesting to talk to them and see what they're hearing from their groups.
And I know that they're one of the.
Groups that Kim Jeffreys was pissed off at them because their members were like calling Democratic leadership and telling them to stand up.
I know that their meetings have.
Been flooded with people who are showing up like what can we do, how can we fight back?
Et cetera.
And again, this is not you know, this isn't Justice Stom, it's not Bernie Aligned. This is like base liberal resistance voters who are now truly disgusted with Democratic leadership in a way that is so different from twenty sixteen, when Nancy Pelosi was a hero and Adam Shift was a hero and they felt like Democrats were truly fighting for them and on their behalf and they were loving MSNBC and all of that stuffy So I think it'd be really interesting to talk to them about what shifts there, what kind of energy they're seeing, and how they're feeling about how things are going, because again, Democratic leadership is underwater with the Democratic base, and I've never seen that be the case.
If a Republican leadership's always underwater with the Republican base.
Yeah, but that's then they always.
But that's the point is like the Tea Party was a real thing.
Yeah it was until it wasn't right, And it's like it was and then Paul Ryan was there and he was unpopular even though he was a Tea Party guy. And then Mike Johnson is here and he's unpopular you know with the base who came before him, McCarthy, he was unpopular. But so it's like, I don't know, it's one of those where uh they everyone.
Congressation general who were a rebellion on the Republican side.
Yes, and now you have a.
Democratic base that is showing much more rebellion than they previously have visavi their own leaders and media outlets.
Yeah.
Me even think about like the three hundred thousand people who dumped the Washington Post when they didn't endorse Kamala you know, I mean, that's it really is different, because that's what determined the twenty twenty election, is that the like liberals were like, tell us suit to vote for, and all of those outlets were like, it's Joe Biden, and that was basically that has changed.
That's true.
Yeah, I think that's that's a fair point. And we'll talk more about this in the Democrats block. All right, let's talk about the economy, shall we, because lots of stuff still going on here. Republican senators doing themselves, no favors. Senator Tommy Tubberville taking to Fox News saying there's no pain, no gain.
That's his message on the tariffs.
Let's take a listen, and Trump's tariffs making America great again. It's a great strategy if somebody's finally doing something out of the White House, President Trump, that is that says you have to take an action in another country.
Yeah, no pain, no gain. That's what we used to tell our football players. There's gonna be some pain with tariffs. But tariffs got us back as the strongest economy in the world when President Trump was in the first time. He knows what he's doing. Democrats, get out of the way. Shut up. You have no answers. You didn't do anything right in the last four years with Joe Biden. We have a game plan. Trump has a game plan along with Hard Luttnik and you know other people that are pushing the tariffs. We can turn this thing around. But folks, let me tell you, this is our last chance. If we can't get it done now with tariffs and with putting and pulling regulations and getting people back to work and cutting our debt and cutting the amount of spending, we're not going to have the country that we've had before. So people need to just listen, learn from this. Understand it's short term pain. We're going to get this turned around. President Trump knows exactly what he's doing, and he has a game plan something Democrats didn't know anything about.
No pain, no gain.
These guys have really got to get their stuff together because that has never been a historical message that has worked politically. Literally ever, you need to instead be talking about the gain part and not really talking or emphasizing the pain. You're like, we have a serious plan, this is what we're doing. These are the number of jobs that are going to be coming back. I saw you and Emily cover that, Howard Luttning, it was unbelievable. It's you know, it's ironic. Two days ago he said there won't be a recession, which one is it?
And then he said, just to remind people, he said a recession would be.
Worth it, worth it.
Yeah, uh okay.
Nobody in all of human history in politics has ever ever succeeded by running on that. And that is the part which is really starting to drive me crazy, is that without any serious affirmation plans and you know, actual trust with the American people that things are going to get better tangibly quickly. We are a consumption based society after all, then I don't think that this is going to work, and you really actually risk doing a lot of damage and reversing a lot of the basically embrace of the American people of targeted tariffs. Most people are on board with tariffs if you sell them correctly and if you tell then explain the benefits as well as they're part of a plan. But if you have a yo yo strategy and people basically start to believe that all tariffs are bad, we're going to end up right back to where we are in the first place.
No, many tariffs are good. I'm extremely supportive to tariff Canada, Max Go, China, et cetera.
The problem is is that they're on, then they're off, and then they're off for the auto workers, and then now we're here and soon we're going to be giving exemptions, and then we're not giving exemptions and people can't pay attention. At the same time, their public services are basically remaining flat. So now what and then, oh, in your retirement account, I think thirty five percent of Americans have four oh one K and so their retirement is down. The rest of the sixty five percent of Americans are so are going to be affected by the stock market basically, whether you like it or not, if there's a twenty percent So what do we do right now from the all time high? I think we're down roughly like eight or nine percent. S and P futures while you and I are recording is all the games of yesterday are basically being a race. So let's say we go down. We're roughly down ten. When you're down twenty, you know, not only will we pass correction territory, we're going towards recession territory.
There's gonna be laof so there's no question, you know.
The only thing that could potentially, I think, save the economy right now is the Federal Reserve. They're not meeting until May to announce their interest. Two months is a long time, and America is not a forgiving nation. It's really not with consumption. They will do it if you sell them, if you have a plan, et cetera. But they if they feel screwed around with and they just have less money, that's good. That's not a place to engender any sort of confidence in your government. And we're starting to see some of this tick down. Now here's the same caveat with all these poles.
It could be fake.
I have no idea, but there are at least a number of polls right now showing Trump's economic approval going down. I would only pay attention because traditionally it's been even if the polls were fake, even in the fake ones, he's usually been doing pretty well.
Here's what the CNN poll had to say.
Donald Trump's current approval reading according to our brand new CNM poll conducted by SSRs, is forty five percent. His disapproval Sarah is at fifty four percent. He's clearly upside down underwater any expression you want to use to say this is not where any president would want to be. And if you look though over time, that forty five percent number, that was actually his high water mark in all of CNN's polling throughout his first administration. So if you look at the issue set overall, how is he handling the whole host of issues that we tested. There are some issues he scores quite high on fifty one percent approove of his handling of immigration, But you ask the key question the economy.
It is by far.
Issue number one for voters. Nothing really comes close overall for Americans, And on that score, he's actually performing a tick below his overall approval rating forty four percent approve of his handling of the economy. You see that they're below his job overall there the economy forty four percent, fifty six percent Sarah disapproved. He is minus twelve percentage points on the issue that Americans say is the most important.
So everybody take that for what you will.
The point is is that even our friend Logan of Logan Phillips embraced the White House. He pointed this out. Let's put it up there on the screen. You know, you currently have a shift from approval. That disapproval dropped an average of five point three percent across eight separate polls in the Trump overall net approval rating, and all of this, you know, generally tied to I think the economy, and you really have to be certain that what you're doing is going to produce a good outcome and that people are going to be with you throughout that period. And the White House right now is coasting off of being new. We see this in Caroline Levitt's comments. Actually that's what she told me right whenever I asked about the stock market. But somebody over there actually asked a great question, so like, how much longer are you going to blame Biden?
Here's what she had to say.
How does the White House measure this in terms of when can you not blame it on former President Biden?
And what does it fully become President Trump's responsibility.
Well, we've only been here for fifty two days, but certainly the President is working hard every day to again bring down the cost of living, which we see is already happening. You see, the cost of eggs is going down, cost of gasoline is going down because of the massive deregulatory efforts of this president and also the fact that we are delivering on his promise to drill, baby drill already. You saw this past weekend the National Economic Advisory put out a report that because of the regulations, we've already slashed in just fifty two days, we've saved American taxpayers one hundred and eighty billion dollars. That comes out to about two thousand dollars per American household.
That's in fifty two days.
So the President is working diligently, and he's working hard on this every single day. And we need Congress to also help. We need Congress to pass a tax cuts, which the President campaigned on in the vast majority of the American people's support.
So there you go.
She's like, well, we've only been here for fifty two days. Look, America will give you runway. That's when I want people to remember. Trump is not sunk. He's not done. There's none of that whatsoever. You still got a long way to go. We're only fifty three days or whatever into the administration. However, and I'll go back to the Biden administration. He started at a seventy something approval rating. It took him nine months to go underwater. Trump is the most divisive probably in modern American politics, So started off a little bit lower, but the economy was a huge strength of his always the whole like, oh wish I had mean tweets right now or whatever, and seniors the people who vote more than anybody are also the people with the most assets are going to be paying the most attention to the stock market. So there's a lot of political built in preparel for the Trump administration right now, and I don't know. I really wonder how much of it is bluster, how much of it is real. And I actually think the worst possible outcome would be maximalist tariff strategy for the first three months stock market correction and then are reversal, because then you wouldn't even have any of the new jobs as a result of the tariffs. You would have just the pain and then caving to the business community after a couple of months, which and then also the public, as I said earlier, would nuke its approval of tariffs. Would like, no, tariffs are good and necessary. But I don't know, I'm worried. I'm worried that about not only the strategy, but I could see people pulling away if we get to twenty and thirty percent correction territory. I mean, nobody in America has experienced thirty percent or whatever.
In a long time.
Yeah.
I saw some people posting Warren Buffett's Letter to America the other day. He wrote this in two thousand and eight about why I.
Was, like, guys, the market's only down ten percent.
He wrote that when the market was down fifty percent, So none of us have been there. I have a lot more respect for my dad now after living through this and how he white knuckled it all the way through the Great Recession.
So it's none of us have had to live through that yet. Hopefully we don't, but.
That can cause all kinds of crazy political problems at that time if we get.
To that, no doubt about it, and you know, you might be surprised to learn, but I share a concern that this is going to just completely negative, negatively polarize people against any tariffs whatsoever. He's giving to tariff policy a terrible name right now because it's done in such a chaotic, haphazard across the board, non targeted, no story about why we're doing this and what the benefits are, or the story changes every day, et cetera. And as you guys know, like I supported his tariffs that he put in the first I supported the Biden terriffs which were paired with industrial policy, which did have positive benefits and helped to reshore some manufacturing, like you know, and we're targeted at particular industries, Like there are instances where tariffs make a lot of sense, but the way that this is going, it's a total incomplete disaster. And we showed yesterday Emily and I the word cloud from jail partners. They ask people like, what is Trump's biggest mess up? And maybe you guys can throw it up in post and add it into the segment. But tariffs was number one, front and center, and then it was like tariff's misspelled different ways, and then the number two was all different sorts of things regarding elon, Doge, federal firing, government, So like all of those are really core sort of economic pieces and for Trump to have at the core of his administration discontent like that really is the story of his administration right now. Discontent around his economic moves. That is something that is definitely new and different ultimately from the first term. I do want to say though, they did get some good news. Now there's another inflation report that is set to come out maybe today or tomorrow, and we'll see what that one says as well. But we could put this up on the screen, inflation cooled somewhat more than expected. In February two point eight percent. Core reading also eased, but looming tariffs, they say, may keep consumer prices rising. So consumer prices were up two point eight percent in February from a year earlier. That's according to a Labor Department report, versus a January gain of three percent. Economists pulled by the Wall Street Journal and expected a two point nine percent gain, so it came in a little bit better than expected. Prices excluding food and energy categories is so called core measure that economists watched an effort to better capture inflation's underlying trend because food is more volatile, rose three point one percent. That was the lowest year over year reading since twenty twenty one, also lower than the three point two percent expected by a cop So when you heard Caroline Levitt, they're saying that, oh, egg prices are down and inflation is cooling and lowest ratings since twenty twenty one.
Whatever.
This is what she is referring to.
One of the theories of what they're doing where it really feels like they're manufacturing a stock market crash and manufacturing effectively a recession, is that that is an effort to crush demand, which means crushing your like you know, wages, an ability ability to spend in order to get inflation under control. And so you know, that is one theory for what is going on out there, which you know, if your goal to get inflation down is basically to like screw over regular people, I don't think that's something that people should support, even if it does have the impact here of cutting inflation. But I'm not trying to like, you know, sandbag them on this like it's good and inflation coming down like it's good, it's a good piece of news for them, et cetera. But just putting in that broader picture of what one of the theories about what the hell they're.
Up to here is no one knows. Let's put the next one up there. Egg prices, by the way, have started to fall, so that's good. They Fortune Magazine was saying it could be just for a little while. This is actually mostly as a result of like the wild swings in the bird population and in bird flu control, but also it possibly hopefully could be a result also of the administration announcing an investigation into those egg producers, right, because you know, this is part of my issue as well, goes back to the Biden administration. I'm not really sure why they are. I'm not really sure why they're not talking more about these.
Types of initiatives.
I mean, I have a suspicion, which is that it's very you know, anti big business. I mean, don't necessarily want to be tagged that way. And I would say, okay, great, you know, big business or whatever is not the be all end all of.
The US economy.
It's a good thing to factor a daily staple like this, and the price is going to continue to go down, which you try and do more of that across the board. So interesting also political judgment there by the White House. But yeah, I mean, like you said, I'm rooting for inflation to go down no matter what. I'm especially rooting for inflation in the most important places in American life to go down, like in housing, and especially hoping that these interest rates go down so that people can get more affordable mortgages. But things are not good right now, no matter what, and the White House has got to play very very close attention otherwise they're in big trouble and they'll end up with high tariffs, high inflation, high unemployment, and high interest rates.
What a shit situation that would.
Stag Stagflation is definitely one possibility that is on the table. And the other thing to note about this report is it really comes in it's reflecting data from before any of the tariffs were put on, too, so we don't really have any indication yet you know what that might have done, what impact that might have had on prices.
All right, let's get over to dose.
This is you know, funny depressing, depending which way you want to look at it. Let's go and put this up there on the screen. So for all the talk of cutting federal spending, of budgets, of America going bankrupt, et cetera, new you know report from the Treasury Department, keep that in mind, from the actual Department of the Treasury, not from everybody else, shows that US federal spending actually rose to a record of six hundred and three billion just last month, despite you know, any claims of what is it one hundred billion or so in savings? Remember that, what's the word? You were an accountant, right, it's more time?
No?
But I what am I looking for?
Like that word about like taking spending and putting it over a period of time. I think it's a yeah, it's camortized, okay, despite like this is always when people like we're cutting ten trillion dollars in spending, it's like, yeah, it's theoretical spending over ten years.
Man, Like, how much are you actually cutting right now?
So they have claimed one hundred billion dollars of savings quote, but only a handful of departments have registered any drops and spending. In the first full month of the administration, spending actually rose by forty billion compared with the same month just last year on a like for like basis, which is a seven percent increase and month over month data. They have actually shown a few large categories that have achieved some decrease. The Department of Education had cut out goings by about six billion, so that means that those were made up for elsewhere. Jessica Rydell, who is an economic expert at the Manhattan Institute, was quoted here saying those savings are so small as to not be identifiable in monthly spending totals and continuing whenever you're down here is the monthly outlay, for example, on Usaid was some two hundred and twenty six million compared with five hundred and forty seven million in the same month. But that's what I kept trying to say even during that whole USAID fight is I was like, hey, guys, this is point two percent of the federal budget, right, and it's like, well, if we look at where a lot of the payment and the spending and all of that is going, it's on stuff that no one's even thinking about cutting, defense budget, entitlements, and debt servicing.
All three of those.
Arguably, interest rates have cost America more than anything else because it increases the amount that we have to pay to service our debt. That alone, apparently are debt servicing is more than all federal tax revenue that they took in just last year. So what are we doing here? If you know, in the idea of federal you know, employees or whatever, it's just a drop in the bucket. Like, if you really want to change things, fine, you know, let's have that conversation. I'd be happy to, but yeah, nobody seems particularly interested.
Yeah, and you know, some of the discourse I've seen online about this is like, okay, so which is it is Elon like you know, messing everything up or is he doing nothing at all? And what you're pointing to helps the square the circle. If you eliminated every single civilian federal government employee, all of them, it's four point three percent of the budget. The things that Key has targeted USAID. We're talking about a budget in the millions. Well, meanwhile, you're planning an extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, you know, tax cut for the rich in corporations four point six trillion. Okay, So it is very possible to you know, slash government workers and make it so old people can't call the Social Security lines anymore and there's huge lines and hours you know to get service, and to completely dismantle USAIG, cut the Department of Education by half, cut NIH funding by a significant amount, and do a lot of real damage while saving comparatively pennies in comparison to the federal government budget. And that is effectively what is going on here, because again they haven't touched the pentagon. I mean, that's the place where you would really want to cut. And you know, I don't want them to touch Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security.
But if you.
Aren't doing you know, significant significant cuts in those areas, then you're going to see the numbers continue to go up. I mean, that's just where you are, and it's very hot. I mean, you can't take seriously anyway their claims of grave concern about the debt and the deficit when they are planning these massive tax cut giveaways to people who really don't need it, and also, by the way, planning on increasing defense spending, et cetera. So you know, I have always said it's really important to not take it face value. The claim that doge is about saving money. Doge is a power play. That's what it is for Elon and also for you know, people who are ideological libertarian libertarians or anarcho capitalists who are just opposed to government, don't want government to have power, see government as like a rival power center to the conservative movement, people like Russ Vote, who is a real, you know, sort of ideological stalwart in this direction. It's not really about saving money for Elon. It's about making sure these agencies can't stay in the way of standing the way of his companies, especially targeting the ones that have irritated him the most, you know, the FAA and other places, making sure that he has his hand on the tiller so that he can you know, whether it's feeding data into his AI system, or whether it's potentially you know, getting shuffling contracts into his companies, which you we've already seen him do in certain instances. And it's also for others an ideological project of just like how do I tear the government down and make sure that it can't work, can't deliver for people. So you know, it's sold because as popular as efficiency, as cutting out waste, as reducing the debt and the deficit, but that isn't really the core of the ideological goal. One other things I wanted to get your thoughts on this, Sagar. So I was thinking about the areas, like you name, the places where they actually spending went down, like they've made the most severe cuts, and Usaid, Department of Education CFPB are kind of top of that list, all of which again have comparatively small budgets, you know when you look at the grand scheme of the federal government. But those are three areas where the like RUSS Vote Project twenty twenty five conservative movement, where they had a plan to dismantle them. And so I feel like the places where they have been able to move the most aggressively and the most radically are actually the places that russ Vote was most interested in target.
It's that the herriage found a sho and all of them have hated the Department of Education for years. There's been almost a fifteen year project against the CFPB usaidea as well has.
Been a long time target.
No, you're not wrong, which is that these are long time targets of the federal government. I mean, do you remember Rick Perry's famous debate moment on the stage where he forgot the three departments that he wanted.
It's like these are long standing He was like, oh, can't think of the third one. Yeah.
Later on, by the way, his excuse was he was on painkillers, which is an insane Okay, but you shouldn't admit that, dude.
It's better to just say you're.
Being stupid back issues or whatever.
Oh, it was actually highest on painkillers at the time.
Okay, god, right is bold, But.
Yeah, I'm just saying, you know, there is a picture that's starting to emerge of the dose people sort of running through these agencies, you know, getting access to these sensitive databases, causing a lot of trouble and tumults, and you know, like at the Social Security administration. Certainly they're slashing which is another long time conservative target, but slashing the number of people the floating all these crazy ideas for so, oh my god, there's all this fraud O way, it turns out that those dead people aren't getting the funds, Maybe we can cut the telephone service. They're just sort of running rampant on this like chaos train. And the things that are really aggressively moving are things that were sort of lined up through Project twenty twenty five and where there was an existing, longstanding conservative priority and plan of how they wanted to go about doing it.
Yeah, that's I'm not sure.
I think it's just that those really look politically, these are obviously the easiest ones to cut. It's just that now you have to deal with real stuff, and it's also a lot more complicated. So I'm just not sure. I'm not ready to buy all that much into it. But this is actually another reason why they're flirting a little bit with problems, is that you have incited you both will not actually decrease federal spending, but you will also have launched like this grand program against it. And so if any because I've seen people who are real They're like serious dozers, is the way I would describe it. They're like people who have genuinely, for decades wanted to massively cut the size of the government. They're like, hey, guys, just at the same point I made on tariffs. If you don't do this properly, no American the American people are not going to trust any future effort to seriously want to reform the government.
I was like, hey, you know what, that's actually kind of a good point. You really have.
You could nuke a lot of public trust in that and make it so that hanging and keeping around dead weight in the future becomes a more politically popular decision. You found this of a teletown hall survey where and look people who call in the town halls and participating in this These are point there is ze point one percent of the most politically activated. So just remember who exactly we're dealing with. But it's still important because those are the type people who show up and vote. He was doing a teletown hall did a pull of people who support or oppose DOGE, and the results were pretty astonishing. This is Republican Tom Barrett from Michigan. Let's take a listen.
We'll go ahead and move on to our second whole question, and that question is do you approve of the Department of Government Efficiencies Mission to streamline the federal government and reduce spending? Again, this question is regarding DOGE do you approve of the Department of Government Efficiencies mission to streamline the federal government and reduce spending? Press one for yes and press two for no. Again, that's one for yes and two for no. Our results are coming in and it's an at seventy percent for no and thirty percent for yes. That's seventy percent for no. It's thirty percent.
For yes, seventy percent for no. So yeah, that's a little bit of an issue there. Again, let's keep it so. Do we have his district?
Yeah, I just lift it up.
You see, this was Alyssa Slotkin's old district. It's a swing district. So he won it pretty narrowly fifty point three percent sound of the vote. His opponent got forty six point six and there's a libertarian who took the remainder of the vote. So you're talking about a swing district in Michigan. Obviously, you know that's important data point. I mean, no, one is saying this teletown hall is like, you know, a scientific poll or anything. But the other thing that's funny is I was saying to you there was that edict that went out from the head of the NRCC. I can't remember the dude's name, but McCormick maybe something like that. Anyway, he was like, don't do in person town halls, Like, if you're going to do a town hall, do a teletown hall because it makes it much easier. You can control who gets to ask questions. You don't have the specter of the crowd with signs and like yelling at you and whatever.
And so he's taking that advice.
Of like, I'm not going to see these people in person, but I'll do my teletown hall. And even within the context of that as getting you know, a clip that gets played on shows like ours and passed around, et cetera.
So it is it is kind of interesting.
I mean, these are people are people are very activated and very concerned about this, and the impacts show up in more places than you would expect.
We've talked about the federal parks.
You know that the national parks that are important to people and important to economies as well, and again, let's say you cut ten park rangers that are like critical to the operation of that park. How much money did you, say, a pitdling amount. But the impact is really devastating to that area because the park can no longer function. You've got long lines to get in, you don't have people who are able to maintain it, or like there was an issue with like people getting locked in the bathroom, there's no one there to help them, et cetera. Some places had to stop taking reservations altogether because they were already short staffed, and then further cuts came and they just really could no longer function. So it put C three up on the screen because this was some inside details about the Social Security Administration and the back and forth there, and this is what I was talking about a little bit the Washington Post hairsheet about how the doche people went in and initially they were like, oh my god, we found all that. Look at all these people who are three hundred years old who are in the system, Like, holy cow, we've found billions of dollars in fraud here. And then the career people were like, well, actually that's not what's going on. Those are just all the names of people who have ever gotten Social Security, and we're aware they're in there and their birth dates aren't correct, but they're marked, so they're not getting paid. And by the way, we did an investigation to see whether we should clean them out of the database, but it came back it was going to cost millions of dollars and it doesn't really cause a problem, so we just left them in there so the career people are able to explain to them. Of course, the President Elan are still running around making this case because it enables them potentially to make the case down the road that like, oh, we're cutting soci Security, but it's just fraud, et cetera. And so once they were the doge people inside of Social Security, we're convinced that, okay, it's this dead people thing is not real, Like this is a kind of a dead end for us to pursue. Then they were like, how about we cut the phone service so that old people can no longer and disabled people and you know, whoever needs to call in and you know, ask a question about Social Security, et cetera, so that they either have to go in person, which, by the way, some of those offices are being cut and shuttered as well, or they have to file it online. Do you have elderly relatives, parents, whatever? Like, do you know how sometimes they need to talk to someone on the phone and they struggle to fill out some paperwork or figure out how to navigate online, like it's kind of an important service. So they were going in that direction again, the career staff came in and were like, you know, that's really not a great idea, Like this isn't going to work out well, et cetera. So now they've paired back again to what they're going to do is just cut your ability to change your direct deposit information via the telephone. So that's what they've landed on. But you know, I mean all of this like internal tumult cutting the staff at the Social Security Administration, which already was reportedly sort of like short staffed, trying to strip down. Now you're talking about services that allow people to get enrolled. Already, the phone wait times have spiked already, the wait times that these offices have spiked, et cetera. And you just get a like, you know, these people don't really know what they're doing, and they're just sort of like rooting around and making it up as they go.
So I know this is going to be tremendously unpopular, but should we really coddle old people by just keeping phone service around?
Of course, I don't know. I'm just talking about it. It bothers me.
It's like when you go to a parking garage and they have an attendant there even though there's like a button there to press, and you're like, why are you even here?
Like sorry, because you can't figure online?
I have in American old people that they have the IQ to figure it out about how to enter your data online? Aren't they being a little bit like stubborn by demanding that we pay a bunch of people. How hard to check your routing number on your computer and your phone?
Okay, no, it's right there.
You a really worked with the elderly.
You're talking about disabled people like having off because here's the thing too, is like people can oh, the government doesn't work and it's so hard to navigain, and it's like, okay, well we have the service that makes it easier for people to nab games like not, let's cut that. Let's make it more difficult for people to be able to get the you know, social Security payments and access to the system that they have themselves paid into.
This is why I'm not going.
To get elected because I just think that it's not that only.
I mean that's the amount that this cost is like nothing. It's you know, in the content grands certain things and it makes life that this is the most popular program that ever existed in our country, most successful social safety net program in the world. Like, yes, I think people should have as easy access to it as possible.
Just I mean, but how long does this continue? It's like, do we have to wait until forever? Why not? So we always have.
To have phones ridiculous with ninety percent of people have a cell phone with five G data on it, Like it's it's not difficult.
Especially with iPhone call. They even have boomer mode on the iPhone.
You can have your text as big as possible, and they make it easy.
To go out disabled. I'll absolutely give you one. That's fine.
But I don't know, there's there's something about it that bothers me a little bit where we just tend to it's it's like that least common denominator thing where the you know, it's been the scene to liab concept where if you have one person who's disagreeable in a group of like one hundred, then the group of ninety nine will generally go with that. It's like, do we really need to have like all of these government services for people who just refuse to use the internet. I don't know, it just makes me a little bit skeptical of that, not saying that what I'm saying is popular at all.
I don't know, how do you think?
Like, think about Joe Biden coignitive decline and now imagine a legion of Joe Biden's I mean, listen, memory loss and like confus like these are this happens as you get older, and so yes, I think to make it as easy as possible for people to be able to access the benefits that they have earned and deserved is like the bare minimum of what we should expect from our government.
Call me ablest agist or whatever. I don't know. It just makes me. It just it makes me uncomfortable.
I'm like, how much do we really have to sit here and cater to all of them? I'm sure all my younger folks or whatever who are out there who've had to ever deal with disagreeable old people or in an office space or something can agree with me. But anyway, to your point about Doze not sending their best, this is a hilarious segment that CNN found. One of these DOGE workers has been doing these get ready with me posts on Instagram, working as an influencer, actually in her government office, posting some of her outfits in like cutesy little poses. So let's take a listen, and if you're able to watch.
I do recommend that you watch this one. Let's take a lesson.
It looks just like any other influencer video, a young woman posing in front of a camera, over and over and over again, showing off her trendy but timeless professional fashion.
But she's no.
Ordinary influencer, and that's no ordinary office. Her name is McLaurin Pinover, and she's a Trump administration's new director of Communications for the Office of Personnel Management, or OPM, which manages federal employees. All of these videos were shot in her government office right here at OPM headquarters in Washington, DC, ground zero for Trump's plan to cut thousands of workers from the federal government in the name of efficiency. Inside her office, Pinover captures video at her desk putting on makeup modeling new outfits to her eight hundred followers, pinover markets clothes.
On her account.
Using what's called affiliate links, she could get a portion of any item sold through her Instagram page, like this four hundred and seventy five dollars skirt or three hundred dollars dress, but it's unclear whether she's made any money. On February thirteenth, the day twenty people on her communications team lost their jobs, she posted a moment for mixed patterns, and the week when her agency demanded all federal employees list five things they did that week, she posted the business Woman special.
Not a great look, Okay.
The most ability humiliating part is that you only had eight hundred followers.
Yeah.
I mean that's a lot of work to be putting in for eight hundred followers. Like you said, two of those affiliate lens. It's like, you know, you'd be lucky if you get one or two people to click on something like that. Anyway, the more the more that you say you're gonna see stuff like that, I think it's gonna be a problem.
Yeah, I think it's a problem.
Yes,