2025 AFL Team Over-Under Wins Part 2: Hawthorn-Bulldogs | AFL Today Show - Friday February 21.
FOOTY IS almost BACK, as the AFL Today Show go through the win totals/over-unders for Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney, West Coast and Western Bulldogs, as well as Yeah-Nah questions to debate all the way through!
The panel chat about the pressure on Port Adelaide, injuries, if Melbourne can bounce back, if Sydney will still be strong and everything in between!
Get around AFL Today's Jaymz Clements, Liam 'Stats Guy' McAllion and Alex Donnelly as they talk out all things for the 2025 AFL season!👨💻 AFL Today's Podcast Expert Panel:
Jaymz Clements
Alex Donnelly
Liam 'Stats Guy' McAllion
Leo Mulluly
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What's that Footy's almost back? That's right. I'm James Clementson.
This is the AFL Today Show and season twenty twenty five is almost here.
Can you smell it almost in the air?
Fresh brass, the slap of leather on the hands and feet.
I guess the thing is we've got a second half.
Of a season total Wins over Under show to do, which is some of the best times of the season. So I'm joined as always by my two best friends over there.
It's Alex Suddeley.
You also forgot the smell of deep heat as well, which you know once that ye bring it on.
And the little feller in the middle it's the stats man.
Let's go. I'm already nervous to talk about North, but here we are.
Why what's what's changed?
Not much? That's that's my worry. That's my worry.
I think we can just we're bad under five wins done?
Nah, go out.
We'll get into that.
But that's it.
This is the second half of the season, Total win over under the show.
How is every team going to go?
That's what this show and the previous one or for what's the biggest year and aw for every team as well, of course, where do they end up?
What do we think happens all season?
It's the greatest time of year because footy's almost back.
Before we get started.
Through and make sure you are all over odds dot com dot you get all your news, previews and tips heading into the footy season. Subscribe to our YouTube channel, get around the AFL Today Show on socials and get around this of course, wherever you get your podcasts. If you haven't subscribed, we're going to make Stat's guy fight you.
This is if that's a punishment lost the fight.
This can be whatever you need it to be. That's where we land. But that's it. Let's get into it. Footy's almost back. How about a bit of news before we dive into these. Overall not too much, but there's a few things.
Yeah, because so much has happened in the last two days.
Yeah, someone said state of origin. Everyone flipped out.
Every time I think every second show we did this last year, someone goes state of Marrows, Oh my god, and then doesn't happen.
Can we actually make it happen?
Andrew Gillan Dylan.
It's like in terms like whenever, in case of emergency, say state of origin.
And then if everyone forgets about anything.
Like he's running for an election exactly.
It's like when he does this, it means taxes. It's like, here we go, it's those damn bears. And when we even was the immigants on it, it was the Bears. But the entire thing with the State of Origin is just I don't know if it's to like put people off the sent of how bad his haircut still is.
I don't know what's happening.
First Andrew doing haircut reference, then we go.
Taken four episodes, but still I think the state of we don't need state of origin chat at this point of the season.
No, it's off the back of Indigenous All Stars versus Free Life.
We get and that was awesome, But you know what you don't need to then talk like this is prime like real estate mid season chatter, like you know, off season even you don't even bring around it's like round eight through twelve.
Sorry, imagine a state of origin and you're like, yeah, that'd be good.
The thing is, you don't need state of origin chatter two weeks before the start of an awesome season. And as we've gone through, like there is so much parrot in the AFL right now, the focus should be on how awesome these teams are. It should be on like what they're doing for these pre seasons whatever. And as soon as someone said state of origin, I'm like, come on, man, you had to do it, didn't you?
Breaking case of emergency.
It's not breaking case of two weeks out from the season where everyone should be getting pumpediculous anyway.
I mean, I'd be pro if they just said we are bringing back Australia versus Ireland in the international they did that, be.
Like, let's go true.
That would be awesome.
That garnered far less attention while it was happening than the stet of origin.
Yeah, no, probably.
It was really cool.
It was fun.
There was a dog on the field.
We could go to Croke Parks.
I've been there.
I've snuck into Croke Park random, just a random sure walking past and there.
Was just open sides walked on the ground so you didn't sneak in.
You literally walked through the front door.
Well the security guard was getting something. Anyway, that's a long story.
That felt like the story.
Well like felony.
Yeah, this isn't gone anywhere.
It doesn't.
That's fine, And the final little bit of news, basically in the two days since we did the last show, is that my beloved Tom Daconing is going to play for me.
I'm offering him.
Well, that sounds really twelve million dollars for seven years is what I offered him, right.
So what I thought you were offering Harley Reid twenty last year.
We can afford both. It's just a great spine Harley Read and Tom Daconing.
This money coming from.
Never asked.
It's fine, just keep moving. That actually has a bit of the other news there. So the Tom deconing thing is like the rumor is a rival club is offered him twelve mil.
But it's not kill possibly not Saint Kilter.
They said that they offered him one point five million year, but then there's another club or possibly saying.
Actual news is.
That they're talking through contract terms with Helton as it is as well.
So it's all just going to put him up.
It's just gonna be thinking and they will, I think, as much as much money as they can give him, they will.
Like that's one of the weird things. A lot of your salary cap tied up in four dudes.
But at the same time that's why they also moved on from the likes of Olas and stuff, so they're not having to pay them down the track where they're paying rookies now for the next couple of years in the camporeal is Jacob Smith, et cetera. So the other one was, I don't know what's that is that the smell of the Geelong Cats wrought in the salary question mark.
I haven't seen this we're talking about earlier. Yeah, it's a bit dodgy, a bit.
It is a lot Chris Scott's position mentoring, mentoring, but it's not even mentoring. It's like a leadership skills position with an associated Geelong business.
Right, And they sponted the Cats. Yeah, they sponsored the Cats.
And he's been given an extra job. Now, if this sounds sus.
It's because it is.
It's like, ah, we'll pay all this money and you can just give two talks during the season and that's his job.
Eight ridiculous. B The AFL is so so so like convinced that there's nothing wrong.
They're like, please don't say anything about this and please shove it under the rug because that's now going on your soft cap. Part of it is elast so the softcap used to basically pay for your coaches and all your facilities and all that sort of stuff right to equal the playing field. The fact that Chris Cott's like.
Extra job his side gig.
He's not driving for Uber, He's like he's working for a club's sponsor and getting paid for it. I need to see pacelips. I need to see clock in our Is he in there four days a week? Is that mandated at this place? What are we doing here?
It wouldn't be done that much.
I need to know, because if it isn't, it's very clearly he's Sally cap wrought and the AFL do not want you to know about it. And that's fine because they're like, oh yeah, and also don't ask us ever about like land deals down down the big farms or cotton on and like sponsorships.
It's fine. Everything's fine here.
Move can't wear a headband, move along. So that was a fun story that popped off as well. You know, I got some vibes about that.
As a Culton who have never ruled it. Whoever had the last salary cup one they want? He wants a new one on a new salary.
Cap is yeah, just level the playing he wants three years of draft picks.
Gone, Hey, let's do it. Season win over Unders.
Part two two two two.
Are you ready? Hawkball? The Hawthorne Hawks stats guy take us through it.
Let's do it.
Obviously last season was the rise of hockball. They had like a down year. They got all these young guys and go, oh, we're good again. That's just the Hawthorne way. That same as Gelong I said yesterday, I'm so sick of Geelong and Hawthorne. They don't even they have one off year and then they're good again.
It's very annoying.
Smells like he's jealous of actually good recruitment and successful planning.
I am, I'm not not doesn't smile.
It's a big wi I'm not jealousy. I'm very jealous of the most jealous of capable leadership.
Correct.
But obviously last year they are fourteen and nine, finished in seventh. Awesome effort by really young Hawk side. The overrundy this year is fourteen and a half, which you go, oh, that's around the same mark as last year. But I think that's really high considering they're going to have a much tougher fixture, so a lot of the sites have them as the fifth toughest fixture. Obviously, the year before last they finish pretty low, so they had a pretty easy fixture.
Finishing seventh. It's a lot harder. So I don't know what you guys think.
There's a lot of teams like the fact that Hawthorne and Brisbane are on the same over under wins total.
That's a joke.
They're over under. Last year, hitting of the season was eight and a half.
Obviously, yeah, rembashed that and we went back to it a lot last year. Remember when they went one and six after getting belted by ninety get the g by this ones. We're like, oh, they they're not good.
Chatta.
We were having last season was like is sam Mitchell going to get fired?
Yeah?
Did we?
We were halfway through that game going with the Hawthorne fan and now Boss Adam to be like gonna last is I don't know.
I don't even remember that. I just remember hock ball is being awesome and obviously they got the forty wins. Give us a year now then yeah, yeah, Na, hockball was it a one hit wonder?
I think cockball isn't a one hit wonder. I'm gonna say, nah, okay, but I don't know if it's going to be as affective this year despite me going get over. You've got the fifteen and eight same as Carlton. Yeah, I think it's not a one hit wonder, but I think it's effectiveness probably as teams now get an entire off season a game plan for it. When they look at them and they have tape on it, I think they understand what they're dealing with when it comes to Hawthorne. I don't think it's a one hit wonder, but I think it's still good, if slightly less effect I think it's a better team though, because yeah, you'll get into the ins and out.
I was about to say that, yeah wow, yeah there ins and out's obviously you got Josh Battles a jet and then Tom morass is just premiership player, is an absolute start. Their back line is going to be so solid. I'm a little bit worried about their forward line. That's why I'm going the under. And then they're tough of fixture. They've got to play Carlton, Pot Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood and Adelaide so four yeah twice, so you played them twice there's about five teams in there that could make the finals. So that's a really, really tough fixture to play twice.
So yeah, hotboll. I don't think it was a one hit wonder, but it's going to be a tougher year for them, So I'm going under social.
How's Mitch Lewis? Yay? Or NAIs if here?
No?
Okay?
Well that I had a lot relying on Mitchell Gating fit for this forward line. I'm he's injured. He's injured at the moment too. Apparently I have him on the over, but I wouldn't be very surprised if it slips under, just with the much harder draw this year compared to last year. I think defensively they're going to be very strong. But again it's that forward line that I that I'm concerned about. But also will Day could just win the brown line. So yeah, will Days looked really good in preseason. Get him in your supercoast just must be a superca. He looks really good. He could be their best player this year. I reckon the.
Big call I've been saying all season, all preseason. There's Nick Watson, the Wire's going to be all Australian. So I genuinely reckon he could kick.
Forty goals thirty thirty eight, forty goals.
I reckon this season two goals a game and you're just going to tear it up this season.
Two games forty six.
Yeah, but he might not play every game around that, around that to.
A game, Jim's Jim's nod in his head.
Fine, yeah, you can yourself on your own, Petard.
That's that's not that. I think it's a call.
Australian Nick Watson, that's great. Yeah, that's a good call.
I don't Yeah, and then rising up chucked in kalsha dip just I think he's going to go. They will rely on him a lot though, like you said, if Mitch Lewis isn't playing, he's gonna have to kick a lot of goals because they're smalls. Yeah, are going to chip in. But in Big four needs to fire up, and I think they're most improved. He was sold last year, but I think you can take another level is coconomc donald. So they've got the pieces there to go on that over, but I'm just going under because of their tough exture.
I'm going slightly over.
Yeah, I'm slightly over too, but I won't be surprised if they just dropped like a random ten and thirteen year.
Yep, they're one of the I think as you look at a bunch of these teams, they're the one that has probably more volatility than I think than a lot of other teams. It's like, we'll get to port later on that sort of stuff.
Well, it makes it really excited for that hawks Port game. Can versus Sis and Genevan and given me a lot of beef like it.
You didn't even say Guineman's name until right there. Neither.
Well he's not that good, He's alright. It just provides the vibes.
Just let the man go to the pub.
They've got about ten other players.
But anyway, the Melbourne Demons.
ALEX twenty twenty four, they went eleven and twelve, finished in fourteenth. They're over under is eleven and a half, so bang on what they were last year. Obviously, everything went wrong last year. Petrarca nearly died, Clary was partying and then unfit. Stephen May and Jake Lever are injured at different times of the year. Simon Goodwin was fired and then not fired. The board. Everyone was getting sued. It was a great time. So the year nor is very simple, Jim, does it all come crumbling down in twenty twenty five?
Yeah?
Nah, oh I'll go. I'm gonna go. Yeah.
I think they cooked me that Petraka at his best Clary. They're saying, all, he's fired up.
I don't think he's gonna fit. He looks fit, but like, I don't know, it might take.
Him, I reckon at least half the season to build up. The culture seems off. Everything at Maulbourne just is off.
So I'm going to say, yes, it comes crumbly now, ye.
Say nah, like I wanted to, like desperately. I think Petrarca has like comeback as like a weird sort of story. I think Oliver's comeback is a weird sort of story. Maximus or really just Gornicus, he'll be the son of a well father of an awesome son party or at big festivals that I've seen him twice this offseason a wine bar. I'm like good a, Max, He's like good a Jimmil later hang out with Jakie Lever as well at the basketball the other day.
Oh yeah, So I think there's enough similar to last year.
I don't think it all goes crumbling down where they finish, like what six wins and what's that seventeen lawsuit? Yeah, I think it's like around twelve thirteen, I'm still going to go over so eleven and a half, I end up landing around the twelve or thirteen win because you think about that creamy, creamy middle, Like there's teams that can on every sort of on any given Sunday when it comes to the old NFL, but any weekend, Like, I think you've got a punch his chance. I think they've got enough talent that they've a punch his chance. The forward line is always gonna be the problem.
But the thing is win.
They drag every team into the mark right that defense. If they're both helvy Stephen healthy, Stephen May and Jakie Lever, then they.
Drag everybody down with him. It's like hanging out with stats guy. He's a bad influence on his friends. It's like Melbourne have become getting into.
Fights, punching cars, breaking windows, causing have excelling houses in this and it's what he does now. It's crazy, and I think Melbourne, that's what they do to you as well, like all the range coughing, Range, drove driving, just disinterested their fans. Like, I still think there is a base level of competency in that team, and they're coaching where this isn't very similar to Hawthorne. I can see this, Like, I don't think it all comes crumbling down, but it doesn't surprise you.
With the volatility where.
They could win fifteen games, they could also win eight, No chance. I still think they go over. I think they're just slightly over because if you and this is the thing we haven't hit on, who do they play twice?
They play North Melbourne, Gold Coast or West Coast Hawthorns and killed it and calling with twice, So that's.
Pretty easysh squishy.
But it's like weirdly rated is like the seventeenth hardest right yeah yeah no.
So for me, I've got there, I've got them hitting the under, I've got them ten and thirty.
I think Claria is going to be their best player.
This feels like that redemption year because one if he wants to go to Geelong and leave Melbourne, he needs to have a good season so he can get traded out. My big call is that they missed finals. I think the rising stars. Harvey Langford, I think he's a good favorite player out of that draft last year, and that's a big call as well, but I think he is and Jim's mate Thalstrop is the cult hero.
Great great name. Colton.
Yeah, but they have Yeah, like the other one that I've looked at, They've got the easiest schedule. So I think that's just that holds where it's so squishy that they can they put him the clamps on teams. They can probably just fall over the line in a bunch of like rummy games that I do not want to.
On a Saturday night at the MCG with twelve thousand people.
Yeah, I'm going I'm going under as well. I think I like I'm lower than you. I think I had him around eight or nine wins, but ten ten, probably eight to ten is probably the right range. My ladder definitely under.
My ladder has him thirteenth.
That's probably my lock on this one. Is Melbourne going under.
I just don't rate them at all, And what do they got they get? Melbourne isn't in it? Gather around as a Saturday night as well? Yeah though, is it?
I think that's a Saturday night.
There's a four to forty one there.
I don't know anyway, there you go Melbourne. I think we're all kind of slightly just not convinced. Correct, Next up.
Talking about people when our teams are not convinced.
About the win over Unders four? The North Melbourne clark a ruse. Let's go stats man, you're beloved North Melbourne. How are they going to go this year? What's they're over under? Take us through it?
Oh?
Do I have to?
I will, I'll do this. I'll put myself through this. Twenty twenty four obviously it was the same as twenty twenty three, three and twenty finished in seventeenth. Oh, anyway, that's just that's in the past. Over Under is five and a half, a healthy five and a half. A lot of wins there, Yeah, no good but the yeah and after this one is pretty simple. Do North need to double their wins for Clarko? Sorry, let me do that again. North need to double their wins or Clarko is gone. Yeah no, no no, they can't afford to pay you man.
Yeah.
That that was my follow up thought, Dorn like, if we if we get three wins again, that is an absolute joke.
Three years in a row of the same coach.
You get three wins Elder you and Harry Sheets, So it's fine, yeah, exactly.
Get three wins again.
That's just it's like Clark, we're building something here, and everyone's like, we're gonna eat this up with a spoon for another eighteen months. You're not worried about twenty five twenty six. If it's like halfway through twenty twenty six and you're like winless, then then the pressure starts. Then the Jets get turned up a bit. But if like they go through this season with three and twenty again, there's like I just gave you the kids, and everyone will eat it up because it's Clark.
Oh, and he's like, I don't know. I still argue that Clarko was a fraud. And if we go through this year and they don't win six games, that should be the year. Now.
If they don't, if they don't go over that, that's what I said, double their wins.
So the positive for you is stats. Guys, when you're three and twenty, by the end of the season, the women will be undefeated and on top of the ladder. So to just be like that push that ain't happening. Look at this, we're on top of the ladder.
No. I genuinely think they came double their wins and get to at least six. So that's the The over under is five and a half. I think it's going to be around that six to six and seventeen mark possibly seven because there's gonna be a few random wins. I think the Inns are really really good, So I think Caleb Daniel is an absolute jet. I think he's underrated. I know you won't agree with me on that one. I think his bowl movement is really good and exactly what North need. I'm a big fan of Luke Parker. I think he's gonna help you obviously, I'm not a fan of Jack Darling, but hopefully helps out the super.
I was gonna throw a flag on the play there. If you're like I'm excited about Jack Darling, you've spent seven months talking rubbish about Jack Darling.
The preseason game was North Verst not so we got to win that. I was really good, but Jack Darling. All the north Mans are like, oh, Jack Darling dominated.
It was against our buddy Seed team. They're like, he played really well.
Aiden Core probably or Aiden Kre's brother or something like that.
So don't. I don't believe in the hype on Jack Darling, but I'm excited.
It's more it's he's taking pressure off of Soup. That's what he's there for. I've been so much, way too much time obad Jack Darling. Yes, because I don't think he impacts like the over under on this thing. No, on this thing really comes down to who do you play?
Twice?
Yes, so we got to play the dogs who we never beat, Melbourne, who.
We all beat him both times, beat them both towns we might.
Have been him once, Adelaide, who are very shaky, Sydney, Alton and Richmond.
I think we can beat Richmond.
Well, there's four wins out of Melbourne and Richmond man not that bad.
I should have beaten them last year.
We should have, But I reckon we could get one win against Melbourne, two wins against Richmond and then the other ones.
I'm not confident at all.
The biggest thing here is I still think your year now quite literally the Emperor's closed, right, That's the simple thing. Do they They need to essentially get to five wins at the very least it still goes under They need to improve. They need to improve by at least two wins or else the Emperor's clos are off and Clarko will be exposed for the fraud that I believe that he is and that he probably is. Ye, So how does Ruball clark Oball actually go this year's tests?
Me, I am saying we're going the over six, so I'm saying we can double our wins. I think all the young guys, so I'm saying most improved is Jackson Archer. A bit of a left field one, but he looked really good second half.
Of the year.
Then you just talk about all of our best players in mckirchew, she's a water. They got another year in them. I'm actually really excited to watch them again. So and then you got Tristan Sherry. I reckon he's going to be an Australian ruck So there is building blocks there.
In the midfield.
That's bad, But I genuinely think they can get to about six wins and get the over.
I've got five, so I'm slightly under.
I got seven.
Seven really yeah?
Another the most optimistic Luke Parker.
Baby, he's not going to change that one.
Yes he is.
Marckerball over unders this year for our beloved for Adelaide Power sixteen and seven. I don't know if there was a team we talked about more last year. That's the roll of Coaster sixteen and seven. Last year they finished second. How did they go in the finals?
They won one? Anyway, over under for this year is thirteen and a half.
I have them around fourteen and nine again, really, which is up for debate, and that's what this entire show is about, of course, So I'm going to probably go the over. But I think everything hinges quite simply.
On this year.
Now, Okay, does the coaching succession plan of our man Ken.
Is it enough?
I don't know, the succession to Josh Carr. Does it detract too much from what they're doing on the field and the way they're playing.
Yeah, I'm going to say nah, just simply because I think they love it. They love Ken. I think it's going to help them. I think that's the only that's the only way that they're going to go. Ah, well, maybe we're not that good, but we'll blue this for Ken like Butter's Rosie that you can tell they love two dudes.
They absolutely love Ken. So I think they're going to try a lot hard.
They're going to try overly hard, but then they're going to try a lot hard at four Ken, so I think it won't.
Detract at all.
Over Under, what are you reckonscids man?
I am going under though.
I think they're going to get around twelve to thirteen wins, so just under that thirty and a half, I reckon they could miss finals. I think the likes of Geelong and Hawthorne are going to be that bottom part of the ladder and I don't know, I just don't think their team's good enough. Their midfield's really good, and their four lines very iffy.
Alex the coaching succession plan.
So NAH doesn't detract from what they're doing because what they're doing is sliding down the ladder regardless. I'm big on there under and then falling out of the top eight this year and Ken doesn't last the season.
I think you'll last the season because of the succession pan.
I think this is the trickiest part of talk about volatility. I think that's exactly how it goes right. They could go in a similar fashion to last year. It's like, oh my god, it's all falling apart. We're gonna fire ken, and everybody rallies around in for another six games and it all starts falling apart again, and then they rally around in one more time for one last push. And that's why I land at fourteen and nine, which is the over, but only just And that's just in like a fourteen and nine fifteen eight.
There's so many teams in this range, right, it was like they're all scrappy.
They've got Sam pow Pepper, who's also a walk criminal, but he's coming back from injury at this point at some point this season, right, And so I think just the fact you have what big yvanne go, I want to be here, and then everybody else go, what's happening?
Where are you going? And he's I don't know anymore.
It was amazing, right, they just have like this weird, strange setup this year. I think they just pull out enough wins. I'm slightly optimistic the best player obviously, Butters I think he could win the Brown though.
I've got him as the.
Big calls top three at the very least, if not top two, if not winning the entire thing. Rising Stars Rising Star Mitch Georgiadis is an absolute weapon.
He's already a weapon, I reckon.
I mean that's why he's a super second year back from an A Yeah, and.
The most improved player. I think this is an easy one for me. Todd Marshall, like, it's going to be hard for him to improve. He's out for the year.
Well, that's right. He ruptured his achilles tendon.
Last month ago.
Yeah, God, I wrote this ages ago. That sucks.
I think the entire idea though, of like they need somebody like like that big target up.
Front, and that was going to be Todd Marshall.
Has to be George.
It has to be Georgia has to be there most.
He has to improve as well, because there's been a lot of hype about Georgia Ardi's and he's Yes, he got injured along the way, but this is the time to deliver it.
Yeah, he has to otherwise they cooked.
Will Drew's the cult hero just because I love him.
He is good. He's very underrated. He's a lock for your twenty in your multi they.
Have twice the two games against Hawthorne, which is gonna be awesome fun two games against Sydney, which is always a fun one as well because.
They have a storied history. Adelaide love that, of course.
You're long always fascinating as well, Frio Crazy and Carlton.
So that's a tough fiction.
Weird picture what happens when you make a prene of course they deserve it, but there we go.
So there we go. I'm going over you're over non.
Under, well not one under, but yeah, this one's a pretty tough one.
This is the I love it.
The over under for the Richmond Tigers, Alex. Yeah.
So they went two and twenty one last year quite clearly. Last they're over under is two and a half. Oh, I just wanted to say the outs before I get to the NR because it rolls with this. The outs from last season Dustin, Martin, Pickett, Bolton, Graham, Baker and Rially ye.
Oh sorry on that.
I think they all finished top like eight in their best and first as well, except for Dusty.
That's not great. Yeah, so the air is quite simple. Will they be competitive?
Oh that's just an easy year? Nah, no way. I think you've got a very low amount of wins.
But they I think the first half of the year they'll be cooked because their players are injured. You've got so many young guys second half of the year. I think they can be a little bit competitive, but most of the season.
Even their young dudes like Gibs coming over from a c LA, You've got Bolts suspended, Smiley's injured topcussion.
It's crazy, and there's a bunch of the guys that did their a c LS like after round five that are not due back straight away.
Like they're bad.
Right, Yeah, he's the guy I was looking out for. Like, so I'm going to say to be cut you off. I'm going to say, nah, I don't think that. I think the entire idea is like they're going to go to this season and if they had those dudes who like give Kiss and Cod had played last year, but instead they're still recovering.
They're basically rookies again.
They don't even have that next crop of young dudes who have gotten a year of just getting their heads kicked in under their belt that's still to come.
And then all the older guys that have all that left that stuff.
So yeah, it's hard. Their best players. Nick lost him because he's going to see the most of the FOOTA just go oh god, it's coming here.
That is not good of your best players. Nick Faston exactly playing.
He's played five games and it feels like three years.
So just say their best players like smile or Leil.
Their most improved player, Tom Brown down back. I thought he was solid last year, so I look forward to seeing him. The rising stars layload. The cult hero is the draft picks that they're going to get at the end of the year. So they just go, this is great. They're going to be watching the Under eighteen Championship going that.
Guy all about the future for the Times.
So the big call, my big call for them is they will be as bad as the twenty thirteen Melbourne Demons who went two and twenty and out a percentage of fifty four.
Their two wins, we're against g WS and Gold Coast.
I don't think that'll be that because that D's team was losing by like two hundred to multiple teams.
I don't know.
That wasn't that year.
That was a different time, but that was five or six twenty thirteen. Twenty thirteen was when the expansion started and the D's was still that bad.
Yeah, I don't think they'll be as bad, but they won't get the same matter wins. I have them winning one game they gonna they beat Sydney. Last year they significantly worse.
Now, that was the one game Tom Lynch played all year. Dusty was all right and Shy Bolton played well.
They're over under Last year was nine and a half.
They won two and I said it was the biggest certainty of the year to be under it and they had good players.
I'm going under as well.
So they played twice with just quickly touching it Sint Kilda, Gold Coast, West Coast, North Melbourne, Essen and Geelong their first four games counting of the mcg obviously a way to Port Adelaie Adelaide, Sin Kilda at Marvel and Brisbane at the mcgile.
Good luck.
How good is that for Brisbane get a nice early mcg win under their belt, right?
Uh?
Yeah, it's bad. Yeah, it's bad.
For those How many wins have you got zero?
I've got two?
Who I'm the same because I.
Think there's like enough we talk about based on commency. There's also like one or two times a year the team will just overlook them completely.
I was going to say, who do they play?
Like?
Who's there will be that one week where there's the buy and they play a team coming off the buy.
And Marvel or something, they could generally beat the win at Marvel.
That's a rule that was like something like something I reckon, I'll beat like Sin Kilda at Marvel or something, And you're like, what the hell would just happen?
Killed? Actual?
Yea, they could beat Sin killed, I reckon one of the two wins killed in Melbourne.
Funniest outcome they beat us in a dream time on the Friday night or an opening round.
Yeah, actually, definitely fine.
We could just laugh laugh.
Now there we go, moving on. He doesn't want to talk about this is definitely gonna happen. I'm already angry. Are you pre anger? I'm always pret angry?
What do you do?
Oh, this one's a tough one.
You want some volatility in your twenty twenty five AFL season, Look no further than since Kilda Saints finishing last year twelve eleven and twelve.
They're ever under.
This year is nine and a half and you want some injuries. So this is where this year and now for this team comes in. Before I get into what I think they win this year, because it is intrinsically linked the big year NA the St. Kilda Saints is are they all ready to injure to make an impact this year?
Yeah?
No, yeah, yeah, but they crap anyway, even if they had those players.
Counterpoint, if they had all these players fit, given how they finished last year, they would be a sneaky eight chance social man Leo Over.
There was chips in.
I'm still chips in until about like three weeks ago when everyone got into.
Well you watched them play a final two years ago and you're like, this is a good team that presciscipitously in the first half of last year. Then they were awesome, came on like a preat train in the second half.
Of the year. Yeah, and you're like, they should be building up to this year.
Go all right, now, this is where we take the Ross Lion thing and we win fourteen games.
I think it's Ross.
It's up to Ross if they played the fast attacking stuff off half back, but you can't tell it.
Max King, Roan Marshall, Jack Sinclair, Mason Wood, mattas for already. The thing is they're all kind of meant like I think a bunch of those players are sort of meant to be back and ready.
For a Round one.
They might not be one hundred percent.
The problem is, yeah, if he's not one hundred percent, I just feel like that just feeds into this and killed a grist for the mill sort of stuff where you're like, oh my god, he's now done his knee because he wasn't getting over his car for his kip or something like that, and it just it's always what happens with the same So you feel like the sometimes it's good to get the injuries out of the road, I guess, but not if you're not one hundred percent.
We'll get your team that's got a worse injury list later too.
So I think that's a tough one. I think they struggle up and down. I think they go just under this over under nine and a half. I've got them eight or nine wins to eight and fifteen, nine and fourteen.
Let's throw a tie in there as well. Why not. There's always a draw, Like we had a million draws.
A lot of it's going to be a team that just drags another team in the mud, like Melbourne and s and Kilda might play two draws even though they only play once this year rematch because I'm going to keep playing. If they played they played Gelong twice, Richmond twice. There's two wins GWS, which is just that is so such a weird matchup to have them playing twice. You got the Dogs twice free or twice and Melbourne twice, So I think.
That's pretty tough.
It's it's like it's the eleventh partest so it's very middle ground sort of schedule. You feel like they start off with Adelaide in Adelaide half, start Geelong at home, but the Saints, I mean at home. Is it a really massive advantage against the team of the Cats Richmond that should be a win, and then away again to Porter.
Yeah, they probably start one and three.
I'd say when you like reincorporating these dudes coming back from and then GWS and gather around.
Yep.
So the injury list as well, if you just look at it like it's just it keeps going mid season right like these are the ones I was sort of like talking about that could come back, Like let's says philipp Is like mid season as well. You got but Mason Wood, Maxican, Roll Marshall and stuff looking like round one.
But I just it's there's Saints. I don't trust it.
It's just they kind of stink their hard, but they were so good when they actually just let their hair down last year and just had.
To because Rossline didn't take the life out of a game. If he doesn't make the life out of the game.
Jack McCray as well, like yeah, oh yeah, Jack, it's like fine, I guess it's just another midfield retread from another club that he'll be all right, he'll be fine, But I just don't know if he pushes them over the top to like make finals.
So I've gone under Alex.
Under Yeah, I'm going under by Yeah. I went or to similar vibe. They're not making the finals, no chance.
Nice one. There you go. Perfect. Now there was a team last year. What happened to them?
They were the best team in about two hundred years of Footyo, reckon around for one hundred and fifty, but they were the best time we've ever seen. And then they got their absolute heads kicked in in the Grand Final in embarrassing fashion, the point where they fired their coach, moved on completely, their best players, bought a house in Frio.
He's on his way out, Alex.
Your Sydney Swans for the over under team wins twenty twenty five.
How are you feeling so?
Twenty twenty four, seventeen and six, as Jim said, finished on top of the ladder. But it doesn't mean Jack. If you don't win the flag, they're over under one of the many teams. On fourteen and a half, the stats guy was losing his mind about we'll just roll straight into the NA because it does roll into the over under. Does the Chad Warner contract chat all season that's already started giving he brought a house somewhere in Perth derail the Swan season?
Yeah, nah, Nah. There's a lot of other things that can derailed the season.
The fact that they lost to a Grand Final by a million points, the fact they've got a new coach, the fact that there's a lot of younger I don't know, I think a.
Lot of younger where I don't know.
I don't know why. I just care you.
The team's the same except for the new draft picks and the maker.
I think they won't be derailed by that. I think they might just take a lot of time to adjust under a new coach. I'm going to say nah, I'm going to say yeah, oh.
I think the Chad Warner thing feeds into a larger problem that I'll have this year with Coxy.
Oh, it's just it's like a straight swap from John Loon Coxy. It never is.
No, That's what I was saying.
It never is.
And I think that change in philosophy, that change of approach, that change of the person in charge, could.
Also be a fresh en up that they needed given fifteen years with longmeiir, that's true.
At the same time, we might we might have just discovered the strong one mind. It might be like the world's greatest coach keeping this all together. And Dean Cox comes in, It's like, yeah, I can beat everyone's head in. If you look at me cross eyed and you're like, this is not the approach I want to.
I'm afraid I'm moving into.
Frio, says Chad Warder Isaac, and he's like, I should have won the Brownlow last year, but what the hell, man? And then he just goes all the sideways, and I think he just go It could go a bit wonky.
I don't think it will, but it could.
Okay, anyway, check out right now True Blood chat with Dean Cox that literally came out this morning, so go check that out on the YouTube as well. They're part of our family now. So best player Isaac Haney already mentioned him. I think their most improved player will be Braden Campbell. He looks like he's going to get a full on crack after being the sub many times last year, playing wing higher half forward. My big call they'll start this season zip and three. So their first four games are Hawthorne at home in opening round, then Brisbane at home and then they have to go to Perth to take on Fremantle before the free kick win against North the four. Oh my god, So I think they'll start that, but I do have them hitting the over on there over under this year. I think they're a quality enough team as we saw last year to rebound from a shaky start. As we saw they had the shaky middle part of the year and still finished on top of the ladder. I think the rising start is Caden Cleary. That was before his indiscretion last week. He misses the first two games of the season and.
The Carl Terro is my boy. Angus Beef Sheldrek, friend of the show mccurty said he might play McCurdy. Yeah, if you heard, if you heard the chat, when you watch the chat from Dean Coch. You'll you'll get the vibe that he's very upbeat on Angers Sheldrick and Corey Warner playing this year.
Okay, yeah, because coaches never lie about young players.
They're two two time opponents who they got. They've got the.
Lines of Frio North, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Gus and Essendon. We usually played GWS Port, Nessen and twice every year. Regardless, I've got fifteen and eight. I'm going over as well, start's.
Going I'm going over jusse I've got I've got the same fifteen and eight. I just think they've got the quality. Like even if they're gonna have a new coach, I think it might be a bit of a slow start, as Alex mentioned, to do with the fixture, to do with the new coach. But they've got so many stars they'll be fine.
Ero Gordon browno finish top five, top three, top one.
Top ten.
I think there's too many guys. Last year, I think there's too many guys take votes.
Only man, it could knock off crips.
Really wow, you can't have It's just so hard to get good help round here.
I've got them over, finishing in the top four.
Right, four, Okay, I think fifteen and eight has them for me. He said, I've got about eight teams and fifteen they're in the top eight, going from one of the greatest teams laste hundred fifty years to one of the worst teams as the West Coast Eagles for twenty twenty five over under stats.
Guy, Yeah, I've just been left with all the crap teams. I just realized.
But over under, how did that happen?
Now? I don't mind talking about then The over under is five and a half, the same as the ruse last year was five and eighteen. They finished in sixteenth, look, which was an improvement. So they actually improved compared to the rush the yha which I haven't put in there. But well, are they relying too much on Harley Reed? Was the one thing I was going to say, is the Nah?
No, I think it's hard to rely on one player even if you feel bad. Right, yeah, I think too like relying too much? I think they should rely on him more. Okay, I think he's capable of.
But he's also been injured preseason. We don't know if he's a certainly to play Round one. Like, there's a lot going on there, so there.
Over under last year was actually below that of everybody else was four and a half. I think, so they went over and I think everybody was so so down on this team last year. The fact that they went five and eighteen, it's pretty impressive and I think there's at least I feel like there's probably more competency in that North Melbourne list at the moment then there is in West Coast. But because West Coast plays in Flip and Perth.
They've got the advantage.
Ye that's a massive advantage. They play free, oh super.
Tough each each time, so I think like relying on Harley Reid, but as long as they have Harley Reid for the year, yep, that's.
All that matters. They've been relying more and more and more.
I think you can just well, he started scratching the service of what he can and can't do. I think there's a lot of other young talent on that team. I still think it's very uninformed though, but because they're playing out in Perth, they probably win an extra one or two games they probably shouldn't yep, and they'll give North a bit of a run for their money.
So who do they play twice. That's man.
Yeah, they play the Dockers.
As you mentioned there, they actually put up a decent fight even the last couple of years. Then the giants Carlton, Melbourne, Richmond and Adelaide. It's got the sixteenth hardest. Obviously when you finished down Ladder, you deserve that. So obviously they're gonna go pretty I think they can put up a fight against further They're not going to win one of them. They can, as Alex reconds that could they beat Melbourne once probably and then Richmond. I think I can put up a really good fight against them. They've actually got some interesting ins and out. So you've got in, You've got Liam Baker, Jack Graham, which I don't really rate.
Jack grahams Leam. Baker is pretty solid. I think he's gonna help them.
They're out barass is a huge out so he had McGovern down there obviously all Australian last year and that he's a million years old, but he's killing it.
You take out Barrass.
I'm a bit worried about their back line because they were really reliant on him.
Take out Jack Darling.
He wasn't doing that much anyway. Oscar all and we love Oscar on the big medium sizer. I think some people call him there medium, yeah, because we've already got the big I was gonna say big.
I will throw Oscar Allen at a person who thinks he's media.
Who are you take?
Actually, I'd still take Oscar Allen over Oscar macknerone every day.
Of the week.
Is this in a final? Just as a player?
Both both most improved. Everyone in the West has been talking him up. End of last year, Brady Hoff. They put him in the back line and he was really good one on one, shutting down the small players. Rising star bo Allen off half back in the wing. Everyone's really excited for him. I think their best players still during m McGovern if it depends how well he goes getting old his body and things like that, and they're cold here, I'm still sticking with lam Flying Ryan is still one of my favorite plays to watch in the competition.
You is also dealing with an injury.
Had surgery mid season.
What do you call it?
Sorry, he's got his cook the brain medical doctor.
Mate, your foot's cooked, bro.
Anyway, the over under of five and a half, I'm going just I know, okay, it's going to be around five.
I might be being biased here, but I think they're going to be just under the rules on the ladder.
Yeah, I've got them five and sixteen as well, Okay, which is the five and eighteen same as last year, sas same.
As last year.
I think they're basically sort of a plateau level of talent. I don't sneak a couple of wins, but I don't think that. I don't think they're good.
They can't improve from last year, and I think because they've.
Got a bit lucky unders four and nineteen again, you can't get any good help. What are we doing? Final team the over under season twenty twenty five show the Western Bulldogs last year finishing fourteen and nine, once again outside.
The top four.
Surprise twist, the over end of this year is twelve and a half.
It's a bit of a dip. It's strange. We saw some players get bevoed.
That was actually you said Porte was the team we talked about the most. I think Bulldogs are up there.
I don't think we did.
I think there was too much as much more drama with port throughout the season last year.
We just talked about Bevo getting bevoed.
And players getting bevoed and departing for you know, non Bevo pastures with obviously mccraig ands and Kilda.
Bailey Smith going to the Cala Daniel and Calied Daniel going to the Ruse.
It sort of hurts their depth clearly, right. That is this is what happens when you have an injury list that they have right now. The big NR for this team is will they win enough to save Bevo's job. It's all strawberries and cream right now at the doggery.
What theound?
We're going to the pound out west?
Uh, Well, they win enough to save Bebo's job because it's like it's nice you can go. We're all behind him right now. But if you're like two and eight in round ten, he's.
Gone the biggest.
But I agree you have a look at the injury list right now. Plus Jamara's issues as well, like they are in trouble, like bonds just looking around going, oh boy, sam Darcy, come with me son.
So Sam Darcy is like the obviously rising star candidate. He is like the best sort of young thing light. The problem is Tim English is dealing with a dominal injury. You've got Jason Andhannison dealing with the hammy. You've got Liam Jones already done for a big chunk of the early part. Yeah, and so that's what I'm saying, like they're both dealing with they just cook. Aaron Norton's dealing with the calf. You've got Tralaw out with the calf, You've got Jamara just a big question. They've lost Cody Waightman already a knee injury.
Five of them are out to like round ten.
So that's kind of the thing that's right, will they win enough? Like what's the point that they have to be like above five hundred? I think can they have to be Can they be four and six? Can they be three and seven? If they're three and seven by round ten, he's gone.
I don't think it comes down to the yeah that I think he's going to have the whole season and then they might get rid of him, depending if they make finals or.
Not, because he's in early he's an early cut.
I agree that they've probably in the pasture to mad top four.
It should have done a lot better, but I think their team isn't as good, so they're probably like, oh, finals is probably the cut off mark for me, and then that'll be to the end of the season, so I think he'll have his job for the rest of the year.
There is a world where they are zero and five because of all these injuries. North could knock him off round one, Collingwood, Carleton three away and then the Brisbane lines at gather around. If there's zero and five, he's gone.
It's just very I don't mind that.
I'm thinking worst case scenario.
Losing to North in round one is quite literally there's no other wors scenario. But the thing is they could also then knock off Carlson in round threw.
So by the bye round eleven, if they're four and seven at the by, do they pull the trigger.
I just think they very rarely sack AFL coaches, like I would love to see it.
I don't think of the three because you can, like, what do we talk about all last year with the Dogs is like they just hove it around within two three games of five hundred all year, right and then and then they ripped off a little bit of a windstreak and got themselves in the Adelaide.
Yeah, they got steam rolls. So it's just a weird, weird situation.
They play North twice including round one uh Frio Brisbane killed at GWS and Essendon, so it's like a weird mix.
They've got the tenth again.
This is the tenth hardest schedule, so it's very mid tier sort of stuff for the Dogs. Their best player is very clearly the Bond they've got Libber tre Laws are obviously already out. He was an absolute possession of machine last year.
And Richard step ups. I should see this.
Like forward line shine but without weightman there. I think that's a real kick. Jamara is sort of a big question mark. You've got Sam Dark, You've got aught Rory Lob We've already sent him back. Liam Jones is already out. Yeah, there's definitely so many question marks. I'm going under, Goad, I am going under as well. I think they'll yeah, definitely under.
I've got nine fourteen, Well under, I have them ten and thirteen. Actually I'm surprisingly bullishit ten wins.
Yeah, I go Artie. I'm going to under, but I've got them around twelve thirty.
I think there's just like too much scope for them just to drop stupid games as they sort of deal with these injuries and sort of getting dudes.
Into now is that it? Yeah?
We did that?
Well, unbelievable.
How good is it having the dging bell every four minutes apart from like me wanting to throw it through the window.
Ah, that'll do.
AFL today for today and for this week. We'll be back next week. We've got a big Super Coach show coming up next week as well.
We show sorry is that a Leo show? So he's big on the super Coach.
We've got Super Coach.
We've also got a live Super Coach draft that we're doing before the start of the season, which would be very fun. I've got the big calls and season predictions, awards are all still coming up as well.
We've got a lot to preview.
It's a very.
Big season of footy your head, you see.
And I feel good that we've got the over unders underneath the belt because they're fun.
And now we can, like, I feel like we can talk about it more. And we looked into every team.
We've given you a baseline. Yep.
Now everything else is cream on top strawberries and cream at the doggery. But thank you to Alex Donney, Thanks Jim, thank you to Lee Mcalliott.
Thank you and thank you to me. Of course, remember.
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Bash most of you all right, good job, all right, that's it. We'll catch you next week for more AFL Today. Until then, look after yourselves and remember forties almost back