2025 AFL Team Over-Under Wins Part 1: Adelaide-GWS | AFL Today Show - Wednesday February 19.
FOOTY IS almost BACK, as the AFL Today Show go through the win totals/over-unders for Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast and GWS, as well as Yeah-Nah questions to debate all the way through!
The panel chat about Richmond and Carlton's injuries, if Adelaide can take the next step, if the Suns can make the finals for the first time and everything in between!
Get around AFL Today's Jaymz Clements, Liam 'Stats Guy' McAllion and Alex Donnelly as they talk out all things for the 2025 AFL season!
👨💻 AFL Today's Podcast Expert Panel:
Jaymz Clements
Alex Donnelly
Liam 'Stats Guy' McAllion
Leo Mulluly
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Foodie is almost back. That's right.
I'm James Clemens. Welcome back to the Afelt Today's show.
Gentlemen, can you smell it?
It's not what the Rock is cooking, but it is season twenty twenty five.
It's almost here.
Enjoining me today for our favorite preseason show of all my two best friends in the world. Over there, that blooming ray of sunshine Alex Donnelly.
He is Wrestlmann your season two.
Unfortunately, the Final Boss has not Gracius with his presence, so I guess Footy will have to do.
He's the Final Boss. Alex getting a brain You think ST's guy now.
Yeah, there's too much wrestling talk already when you started with the Rock.
I'm my god, No, he's going to go into his wrestling rants.
But that's a right.
We've got there eventually.
And that guy speaking is, of course Liam mccallian, the stats man, stats boy, knee the stats guy.
This is an.
Absolute cracking preseason show.
Why is that?
I ask you, fellas season Team wins over under show.
That's our favorite show.
I love it. There's nothing better.
We started this show off a million years ago with the Paddles where the red and the red and the Green over under.
We've come a long way.
Yes, Now we're just going to talk it out. Yep, every single team. This is it, like, how is every team going to go? What's the biggest Yeah? And ah for all of these teams, where do they end up? We're broken down all eighteen teams today. We're just covering the first nine. I believe we're going to go because we have such a staggering lack of imagination.
We're going to go alphabetically.
What's that adelaide the gwal just unreverse ladder position.
Let's just not make it confusing. I'm happy.
I'm happy with sulphabetically reverse ladder position. When it sucked, it's like, hey, here's.
All the bad teams. Yeah. Yeah, the first show is a the bad team, but this sticks.
It's like, ye, they're bad anyway.
So for every team, we're doing their season total wins over under. It's very very basic, very very simple. Do you think this team wins more than this time total? And it's you know, twelve and a half, thirteen and a half.
You never hear this on another podcast. By the way, if no one else does over unders, we do it better than everybody.
Though that's the thing.
HR said, no paddles this year due to potentially no weapons.
Yeah I got hit. Yeah, I hit all the paddles.
Yeah. This is giving way too much of an insight into Alex's sex life. Jeez.
Anyway, before we jump in, subscribe to our YouTube channel. Follow AFL Today across all the socials.
And get around this where you get your podcast. Of course. Can you smell it? Though? Body is almost It's so close, it's almost back.
Before we dive into the season total win over under, the stats guy has written down a bunch of news.
Fi threw it stats man quick.
Alex had a few too. Tiger's number one pick Sam Lawla, I'm pretty sure I pronounced that right Fractionedy is jaw in a preseason game versus West Coast. So that is brutal for the Tigers are like, oh less, We've got some number one, number two, number, a few good high picks and then he's not even playing possibly round one.
What do you do talk set?
Yeah, I mean, shouldn't the Eagles player be cited by the match review panel for pushing him into the contest. If he doesn't do that, he's he doesn't get cleaned up. And also Josh Smiley's already injured and Tom Lynch has had a concussion. So good start of the season.
Richmond, No good, We've got the Cats. Cam Guthrie the man, he just gets injured. He's clogging up the list. I think he's going to miss the start of the season with an achilles injury and he's gonna have surgery. There, you've got Jamara back at training. He will miss the start of the season. Still needs to build up fitness, but good to see him back at training. But still I don't really know what's going on there. We were talking Esther, You're like, have we heard anything? I was like, no, Like usually in the AFL world you hear something.
We haven't even heard anything. We'll get in to that when we cover the Western Bulldogs tomorrow Friday Show.
Yeah, Alex wrote out, was that Tom Green four to six weeks with the car Oh, that's brutal for the Giants. That's probably their best player. Charlie Kurno Jim knee surgery. Geez, clean up.
They said that he's back for Round one, but knee surgery three weeks before the season starts.
Fine, let's move on.
I've got zero there are problems with this.
Yeah, I was gonna say I definitely slept all of last night, no problems.
And then the last two in the news to Glex do you want to cover them? You were all over him. Yeah.
So Channel seven and Fox Footy yesterday both released their commentary lineups for the season as well, so basically because they will be going head to head on a Thursday, Friday and Sunday. We found out what the Thursday night Fox Footy team was going to be. We knew it was Matt Hill who's going to join him. How he's going to be on that as well, alongside Jack Rie Well, David King, Montagna and Dunstall. We knew Huddo and Jared Whiteley we're going to head up Friday nights. But Gary Lyon, Buckley Brown and Jordan Lewis that's their typical thing. They haven't really said who's going to call like the weekend games, but Corbyn middle Mass is joining.
He's been calling for the ABC on radio. Is a very good care.
Of course.
You got Dwayne Kelly and Adam Papalia doing the WA games. To be interesting to see how that all works together. And Hamish McLaughlin is back on Channel seven. BT has been shifted to Thursdays with Alistair Nicholson and Hamish is calling with someone else.
I don't have fun of me.
Hamish the most beij Man who's ever existed. He doesn't with the olds Kickers. He does it great with the olds Kickers.
And that's basically his like level of iq I reckon At this point, it's like he's a bunch of seven year old He's like, this is more people.
So the interesting one is that they're putting Cane Corns and Dale Thomas on a show Channel seven that is for that's all.
Yeah.
Yeah, So James Brayshaw and Alison Nicholson are doing Friday nights.
This one and the big one Bruce. Yeah, Bruce is back.
Hosting, posting. Yeah so ten games essentially throughout the season, ten Marquee games, just so ten big ones. Basically the same way they use him during the finals. They roll him out, go.
It's Bruce yay, and everyone's like hi Bruce, and he's like I'm Bruce maccivating.
He's like no, it's just like it used to be, which leads us into today's Yeah, Naice, are you ready for some yen rs gentlemen, let's go. Do we need Bruce in twenty twenty five?
Yeah?
Nah, yeah, absolutely, you go cowards, absolute cowards. We do not need Bruce Magavat.
It's nice.
I do not care we need You know what happens, what you know what happens when you roll out old timers time and time and time again. You know what doesn't happen? What new talent doesn't get enough fresh air to actually breathe and actually take Bruce's plays. Bruce is one million, two years old. We love it, and I like this role for him as a host. He's not calling games.
That's fine.
He wanted't be on that long anyway, and it's.
Fine like the host bits, but I don't even really like.
I would rather see someone take that spot and really run with it and become the actual, proper new Bruce.
And we are not there.
And it has been one of the worst and biggest holes I think in AFL coverage for probably the last five years, of not having like that actual sort of absolute top tier, top notch, do everything, be everything, knock everything down, never a problem, nail it on the head, commentator, host.
Do everything, try to turn Hamish into that they.
Tried to and it was horrible.
I think a lot of the younger guys though, aren't good. Like it sounds like like we're talking about the cricket and Cricket Today show, we're talking about that, but I don't know, I feel like they've just got Bruce because like I can't see any younger guys doing that.
So cricket is actually a really interesting point because after post Richie Benno, Yeah, they really really struggle with cricket in Australia, right Nicholas, And I don't think they've even really covered that off properly yet, Like they've really really struggled, And I think footy might have a Bruce problem.
It's not footy, it's also Australia wide.
You look this morning, the Champions League's on wet roll out Bosser and Craig Foster again.
Yeah everyone, Yeah, but it's but it's the same people. There's no one new coming through.
It's not really it's not so much the same people.
They're still at least young, and there's all vaguely relevant fifties buzznicch at least is played at the highest level.
We get the Craig he's been doing stuff for a million years. Right. The thing that Bruce is is like his heyday was the eighties, the nineties. We're in twenty twenty five.
But the thing is Bruce is a savant. He has all the information in his head.
He knows everything, and he can he actually he actually draws you in and makes you want to watch, rather than some of these dudes just reeling off like stats or facts.
Me, He's just like, I don't care.
I would rather Bruce five or six games throughout the season, basically shipperditting like somebody else, like if they just go, hey, how do can we we make you more fun? Haddo's Hudd's a call. Huddo's a great call, and this is it Macavani's a great call.
Huddo.
I feel like there's just like we get a little bit more pop. Can we get a little bit of something something here, but just like a little bit more fun out of you? Can we get this with one of the other new calls?
Can we get it for?
You also need to realize that it has to be someone that works at seven with Bruce.
Doesn't matter, it's like somebody else in that like ecosphere, right, very simple. I feel like I feel like there should be like a shippening process from Bruce here rather than it's like I'll bring we've run out of ideas. We're wing Bruce back. You're like, this is yeah, where's Dennis Cabetti? Just bring him back as well? Like what is the boys retired?
But this is also because Fox are going Channel seven are going head to head with Fox. They want to try and win the ratings battle. They think Bruce will draw in more viewers then rather than over on on Foxtelt watching you know, Jason Dunstall, Gary Lyon, Sarah Jones. Whatever you're bringing Bruce and mel McLaughlin, people may want to watch it.
I don't think it's going to work. I think there's going to be a point when you go, oh is this a big thing? Well, we've got Bruce and like he's so old, he's so old?
Another watching racing every week?
That was enough from me. It was a year, two years some youtuboe cowts are Carlton cooked.
With Charlie's injury, we're going to get to this in literally twelve minutes time his time time, We've got the time are on these nrs for four minutes per team?
What is that twelve minutes more go the Calton.
Does this cook Carlton if it's not it is if it is serious. But I feel that more and more than anything, if you look at he'll be right for round one. He's not going to be absolute topge hundred percent for round one. That's probably not how it's going to go.
What do you think? Yeah, no, I go, I go.
Yeah, it's as simple as that. The Carlton need him. They need him to kick three or four goals a game otherwise they're cooked. Like you got Harry mckaye. He'll be up and down here. He started well last season then he sort of was very like roller coaster. That's what you're gonna ge, whereas Charge is consistent. Yeah, I reckon they cook without him Alex.
I'm going to say nah, because he's proven in big games that he does nothing anyway, and that's what you need Charlie Kerno for to kick goals in big games. His finals record is atrocious. It's not for finals if.
You can't get to finals anyway.
Like, I don't think this specifically cooks them, but it's an accumulation of things so far, given you adding Sam Walsh and everything else, I don't think this specific injury cooks them enough.
Sure, and the final one, how the changes to the commentary teams and the coverage enough, like you just mentioned them all, Alex, isn't enough to really breathe a bit of fresh air into AFL coverage.
You're not, I'll go yeah, just I feel like we needed a little bit of a change. I don't think it was as bad as everyone said. I think everyone sort of jumped on the bandwagon. Oh it's like horrible, It's not wasn't horrible, It wasn't great, But I think, yeah, the changes are good. You get more of the bigger names on the big games, so it's good.
So I think it's a yeah, because you've also seen that by Fox bringing in their own callers and coverage teams, you've seen seven they're forced to act and change things up, which means and they're good callers on their own. But we don't have BT and Brayshaw together anymore. Maybe maybe in finals and Grand Fight that's fine, but you know, if you're bringing together for a game like that, that's okay. But by not having them together by someone like Aliston Nicholson, who's coming through, who's a good call.
Calling with JB.
Nicholson can be the main play by play guy, with Brayshaw adding a bit of the color play by a play thing because you don't have the two serious people going at the same time. It's the same with Matt Hill and Howie. Matt Hill is just going to be you know, he's going to be the main caller with how he popping up his stuff. And then you put the two guns in, you know, Huddo and Jared Whiteley together. It's I think there's enough there to say it's a good change. I'll be interested to see what the Saturdays are like. For God's sakes, Fox, tell put all your callers at the games. Yeah, none of the studio crap I agree with. That's that's my thing at the game, every game. So it's not enough if the if they're not, if they're not at the games, it's not enough. We don't I don't know yet they're none of the game is not fair enough. Simple, we got the right Let's do it.
Are you ready?
Twenty twenty five? Come on, season win over runners. Let's start with the very top. Let's go out west to take on the Adelaide crom The Adelaide Crows over Runner twelve and a half.
Stats guy take it away.
Oh, this was my big over under last year. I don't think I think I would have said they would have finished about fifteen. Oh they finished fifth. No, I said top four last year locked them. Ah, that was really really dumb. I thought that would at least make the finals and they can push. I thought this team was really good. So I'm going on the opposite this year. I'm saying they're going to go under the twelve and a half. So I'm going to say eleven and twelve. They're going to go this year improved from last year. So then they've got eight wins last year. I think they're gonna have three more wins. But they're just not up to that next level. So that was the NR that I put in here. Can they step up to the next level? That's I just I don't think they can. Yeah they can, but will they Yeah? I feel like they've got a lot of guys that are right on the edge.
I can't believe this of the year. Now, does Matthew Nicks like survive pass gather out? Yeah? Okay, that's the NR for this team.
I think he survives because they've got a lot of home games to start the season, I think, and they've got some really good teams that they get to play twice, the Gold Coast north West Coast. I think they can get a fair few wins there. So that's that's at least good. And they play a lot of them in the first half of the season as well.
If they are only good, they should be three and one after four rounds.
Yeah, so they have like the second easiest strength of schedule out of the entire right, So essentially Adelaide should have a half decent run where they start off with sin Kilda which should be an easy one, Escant over here, then North and you're like, come on, just win a couple of games.
You think them his locking to win two of those? Yeah, they could win.
No, No, they're gonna win the first three because then they go to Gold Coast away, which they're not winning because we know the rules of the twenty eighth parallel.
That's true.
Yeah, they're not winning Gold cost But stats man, so give us some more insight to Adelaide. Who in the make up break players, who's the best young talent?
What do you think?
Yeah, make or break players? You can check that out on the socials that leader has been putting up on AFL today. Are you Riley Phil for the Thriller? We've been talking. We talked about last season and then he got injured. Then he just I think this is his year. Forty five plus goals. I reckon he's going to kick and he will be their catalysts. Obviously got rank and he's going to go in the midfield. You've got the thriller, the thriller. If he can kick at about two goals a game, I think then that's going to go with them a long way to getting a few more wins. You've obviously got Jordan Dawson had a really off year. Jordan Dawson, he was like their best player, very up and down. I think he can bounce back. I think he was a bit unlucky. I've chucked in the Colt hero just because I love watching him play Ben Keys. I think you guys, you guys love him as well. You'll say not a cold hero, but I think, yeah, I think he is.
Well, how is the cult hero and not the fan favorite?
Well, Luky Pedlar, I love Luky Peddler. Get picked, you got to get picked? Yeah, so he's in my team as the sub when I did the best twenty three. But uh yeah, luky Pedlar. Just I hope he gets a game because he's a bit of fun, bit of a live one.
You needed to have like a little annex here for Joshu as well. Just the which way does Rochelle go obviously after being dropped towards the back end of last year, how he responds to that? Does he throw the toys out of the cot or does he come back really committed and prove us to be that player he's promised to be.
Their forward line is like really exciting. This is what I said two years ago, And I'm like, oh, they're got to be really good because their fold line is really good. I'm not going to fall into that chap again because I feel like they're just a bit too inconsistent. But their forward line, if they're firing, can kick like one hundred and twenty plus points.
Just get text out of the way and thriller in there.
It's good.
Yeah, I thought you got the fog stuff for Shelley. At their best fog, there's a lot of dudes who could strut us around that forward fifty. Yeah, but they're just not consistent enough.
Thriller keys, fog, et cetera. And you sort of build around this sort of stuff and you should be able to kick a lot of rank and will kick. I just don't know if the defense is good enough. I just really is going to click. So I've gone under as.
Well, Alex.
I'm going over the finals.
They do finish off with West Coast calling in North.
It's good finish.
So if they're in with like a bit of a sniff right at the end, you could actually almost bank them two. They start off well, they can obviously finish well. It's what they do clearly in the middle they're double ups.
Are pretty like the tough.
Ones that were obviously against Hawthorne, Gold Coast depending on where they're playing them port obviously at like in Adelaide.
Yep, it's getting hard. But I know I feel like under you reckon finals.
Yep, finals, geez, I don't know about that one.
Oh there we go.
We tugged it.
Well, yeah, very good, Brisbane. Let's do it.
Season total wins over runners for Brisbane. Your rating AFL Premiers.
Fourteen and a half that seems low.
Take away, Alex, Well, they hit the fourteen and a half last year with fourteen wins and a draw, obviously coming from fifth to win the flag. As you said, over unders four and a half, I'll get it out of the way nice and early. I think they're going over. I've got them winning seventeen to eighteen games this year. We didn't mention ins and outs in the previous thing, so the big outs. The big out for Brisbane is Joey Ducket's he's obviously retired and Lions is tired. In Levi Ashcroft, I'm not going to put a lot of the draft in, but Levi Ashcroft was probably going to be the number one draft pick if you could have gone anywhere. You look at their double ups, a couple of tough ones there in Geelong, Sydney Hawthorne. They get the dogs Collingwood and Gold Coast of course obviously two Q clashes. They kick off their season Geelong at home and opening round, then they play Sydney and West Coast at home and then Richmond away, so they can get to three and one two and two to start. They're pretty happy. Their last three is great running into finals. If you want to hit form. Swan's at home free and Perth Hawthorne at home.
So they.
But if you win those games, you are flying with confidence.
Pretty tough.
Ye yeah, but that's what I mean.
If you come in with that, you're saying like it's a good preparation if there on top of the ladder, and then they play some of these and then you.
Get the week off. So what is there yearna? So there?
Yeh is are they top four locks and are they going to go back to.
Back top four locks?
Big? Yeah?
I think their home advanta they get the biggest home advantage play last they couldn't win at the start of They couldn't w at the start of the year, but they had a lot of injuries and that's literally changed the whole team around.
Yeah.
With a fit team, they you should hardly lose a home. They're very similar to Gold Coast this year. They're just they're just going went home and top four easily back to back. I'm not sure about back to back, but their team looks bloody good.
Yeah.
I think they're deep enough to easily smash this over. Oh yeah, so I think they're a top four lock.
Yeah.
I think the question should be top two lock.
Top two.
I think there's like, yeah, very few teams in the ANFL that can beat this Brisbane line saone.
They're so that it's ridiculous.
The only questions are how you placed Joey duets yea does the hippie he has to stand up have like a big, big, big season, which is like one of those things where we're like, okay, well, if they're best players like Will Ashcroft versus you know, double Brownlow Metal winner, Lucky Neil, et cetera, the questions will be around the forward line. The questions were always around the forward line anyway, and it stepped up when it matted last year.
Because the stone kick is like many goals as Sydney Mins.
But they might we have because we've seen that with cam Rayner and mclogg. Again, I was through the season, so I had my ladd range for them.
Top four.
I think the top four certain is their best player this year. Will Ashcroft and we had a bit of a back and forth out that you're like, you're leaving out a two time Brown. I'd rather take the blow who won the Normosmith in like games twenty one or how many other games he's played. He could literally be their best player by so far with a full preseason, it isn't funny. I think the rising star is his brother Levi. That's pretty obviously, Coltiro, Kyle Oman, he's probably already cultier anyway. But my big call is with everyone getting fit, because this is the thing we forget. They had four to five dudes out with long term injuries during that season. So you've got Kitty Coleman, Dude Link McCarthy and Oscar mackinne obviously missed the Grand Final, and there's another one who I'm forgetting. I think Zorka is out of the team by July. I think he's out of the team. He gets Daniel Rich. That's just because you don't like him. But I think he gets Daniel Rich because Kitty Coleman is more explosive and offers more. And if Tom Doodey gets into this team as well, he's more solid defensively.
So I think it was really good last year. Again, you know, retire retired before the game leaves you.
So I think he could be in a bit of trouble because if he slows down a bit in Coleman hits form, he's in trouble because where does he fit in Okay.
He's fine.
They started with Geelong and Sydney with round zero, but then they have the Eagles and Richmond bracketting are by in round three. You are laughing Brisbane, It's oh, we've got a hard schedule. I think they're fine. I think they smashed it over.
We are all going over well over over, next up. Oh no, let's do it.
Thank god, we have four minutes.
Carlton Jim's put twelve minutes on the twelve minutes on my beloved Blues.
When I say beloved, I mean hated, because God, they just put me through the ringer. So last year they go thirteen and ten, they land in eighth, give up a ten goal, leads to Brisbane in the elimination final. I'm sitting there with my then five year old son who's in tears during the first quarter.
His old man was in tears in the second quarter and it was just horrible.
It's a good way to learn a big year.
Nah, though they're over runners fourteen and a half, the big y and Ais, and I think this is what they're over under completely hinges on down.
They stay healthy.
Nah, you've already shown in the preseason that there's a few little issues and niggles, because the thing with that is all of that equates to more playing time and more responsibility for other players as well, whose bodies overtime are shown that they can't handle it.
It's like all your best players except for crips, except for Crips are the most injury prome players. Like in the comp you've got Sam Welsh, You've got chair up Weiders, even Da Kooning's had a lot of fair few injuries. Like if they're all playing the whole season, you go Blues top four lock. But they just they're not going to play more than fifteen games I'd say, like each because they just they can't. That's it.
They're not tissues ping like this.
Yeah, that's the biggest problem for this team. So my prediction is fifteen and eight with health, and I think in my big cause like they're the first or twelve yeah that I saw you on one to twelve of the Blues. Because if they stay healthy, they are a chance to be a top fourteen. That's fine, And we talked this out in the make or Break episode last week. Top six is a make good job. Outside of that, it's a break. The thing is if they don't stay healthy. They could just miss the finals. Be easy beats, be in games, but just never win them. That's just how it's going to go. They played Hawthorne twice, which sucks because Hawthorn play Carton very rue.
Well they have for years.
Collingwood same sort of vite the decors winning, you know, basically the game selling goal last year as a heartbreaker.
They do, however, have two games against West Coast and North How they mattered to that. Damn.
That's the bracket this year. That's a lot of golf Eson and Port Adelaide as well. It's a it's a weird one. But the thing is they set off obviously with a.
Big, massive showdown against Richmond.
Massive should smash them exactly if you don't smash rich if you need to smash, which mean get it off to a good start, because then you have Hawthorn the dogs, and then Collingwood and I've seen West Coast to gather around and there's like carl four out of their first five games.
There is no chance of that happening.
So they obviously don't play opening around this year. I think that's a very smart thing. Last year they lose doc in the opening round.
He's back.
Now they do at least have like they lose Nick Newman. That stinks to ACL preseason. Charlie's obviously a bit underdone. Jacker Smith comes in top rated. He looks bloody Greef, he looks unreal next to Walsh's already dealing with injuries.
This is what I talked about latter h They could be top of the table, they could miss the finals. It's ridiculous.
It all depends on health for Carlton because we know the talent's there, but the talent is not deep. They've got the camp Riali twins.
But one's already injured.
They're super young play and they're not going to play. So we could see Crips win a third round though, or they finish twelfth. They stink.
Who knows what's going to happen. I think rising stars JACKA Smith, the cult hero is very obviously Adam sad. Yeah, they do have a half schedules twelve harder, so it's pretty middling. I just don't quite see them really cracking that because I don't think they stay healthy. I think it's acres, it's terror stuff like that. If they stay healthy, yeah, if they stay healthy all year, add that depth of class to this Blues team, the delivery to the forward line. If that improves, they are a bit of a chance to actually go top four. If not cooked, mate cooked, So over under, I'm going to go over if they can stay healthy under if they just don't, simple so.
You've got go.
It was going both over.
Yeah, I'm going I'm going over as well because I think even if you have the injuries, you're going to go well.
So I think you're still going to be top eight under.
Ah, there we go.
I think they're cooked. Time for my hated war criminals of Collingwood.
Let's do it.
Stats guy, bring us home. We've got fourteen and a half for Collingwood.
Talk us through this.
There's so many can I say there's too many teams at fourteen and a half.
There's five.
That's way too many. But anyway, twenty twenty four, obviously the Pies they missed finals. Obviously they yeah got the granny that we year before and then a bit of a shock twelve nine and two draw. The two draws cost them the finals. Obviously, that was pretty funny. You over under fourteen and a half. I'm going I'm saying it early. I'm going over. I think this is going to be the year the Pies bounced back. I think they're I think in my ladder, I'm just going to double check I had him top two. I'm going to say top four is to be a little bit on the sea side there. But the na I've just put in here, they're calling it this at at Collingwood. Is this the last dance for the Pies for the premiership and because they've got so many old.
Guys, nine dudes over thirty. Yeah, we said this last week. Yes, it is their last dance, so yeah, yep.
I think they're probably able to eke out like another year or two, just because you've got that decos Houston. Yeah, Houston, Like you just have like a little bit of a top up of talent.
So we need to talk about the inns for Collingwood, which is Houston, Perrim and Tim memory exactly.
Right, and so I think that sort of helps them push that windows slightly open. So I don't know, I'm going to say, nah, the last dance, okay, but I think this is a chips in year. But I think the Chips sort of fall over to the side and get, you know, fall into next year's bucket as well.
Yeah, I would agree.
I'm saying yeah for the last time. They like the older guys. I think they're younger guys that they were probably five or six, really good young guys. Then the rest I don't like their sort of depth players. Some of the guys coming through aren't superstars compared to some of the other clubs, so.
I think they're not even b greater.
Yeah, that's my point. They've got the guys that are on that next sort of level, and it's good. I think most improved I've put here on the socials. This one I was a bit essenton on, but if he can get some game time, I'm going damn Mistate. They needed to kick some goals. I've obviously got my check o. I believe very underrated. I think Damn Mistate can kick a few goals here and be their most improved. I'm getting some funny looks over here.
You're asking for a guy that's on eight hundred thousand dollars a year, that's thirty this year, to be their most improved.
He's injured, he doesn't play.
That's not improving, that's staying fit.
I reckon he'll have his best season ever.
How about that?
That's that doesn't mean he's not the most improved.
He's going to improve from last year. That's all I'm saying.
My big he's going to kick nine goals to improve on last year a lot.
He's going to kick forty goals. How about that, He's never kicked above thirty in his life. He's going to kick thirty.
Nine goals to be exact. There we go. It sounds like a sandwich bit.
Oh, I don't want to have a better You want to put him in most of me?
Yeah, you're the stats guy.
Oh, anyway, I'm going the big call. I'm saying the Pies to win the flag, and I'm calling that earlier. I just think their list is just exactly where you want. Every team that's either in the Grand Final or win the flag are always in the top two oldest teams in the last I think six years Gelong to Brisbane we're pretty old. The other teams Pies were really old when they won their last flag. So I think they're going to win the flag. Rising Startler is going to be looking at me funny behind the camera. I'm going ed Allen they're talking him up on the wing in preseason at a game where he had twenty nine and a couple of goals in the wing last year. I think he's going to have a really good season. Best Players, Nick Dacos. That's the one thing like people aren't picking him in Super Coach because what's the antefasti artist? That's right, because you've got that as well. Out it's not fun. You and Nicks a pretty.
Like, yeah, we're athletes and we're both overrated.
Yeah, I'll agree with the second and hated by vast way. He's clearly their best player. And then the cult hero. Everyone always goes who do we hate on this show? From Collingwood Maynard, But I'm going Bow mc crew. I like how he just the pressure on the hair, just a bit of everything from.
Because is cook this most improved? Damn it say could here at bow McCrea.
Is it the cult here or his mother? For the speech that one.
Time Brad Maynard, it's clearly there Cluver from because it's quite literally he has like a following because everybody else hates the dude. Yeah, but Collingwood fans are back into the hill because they're in a cult because just absolute lunatics and war criminals.
They're Pies fans. Yeah, so over under as we run out of time. Well under they missed the finals. I don't rate them at all. Their form at the back end of last year wasn't as good as some people say. I'm going to go to the hilt that they missed the finals. Again, what do I got fourteen to nine?
I have them at thirteen and a half over under, but yours is fourteen and a half, so I will go under eleven.
I don't know about that one.
I've still got them in my top though, so fourteen nine gets them in the top eight.
Yep.
Next up.
Yes, we've all been waiting for this one. The season win turtle over unders for the Essendon Bombers nine and a half.
Take it away, Alex.
I noticed this doing the run shit yesterday twenty twenty four. They went eleven eleven and won and finished in eleventh. So it's a lot of ones that Essendon got, but they don't get the ones that actually matter. They're over under this year is nine and a half. I will start it off by saying I've got them eking under just with nine wins for Inns they've just got a couple of draft picks.
Oh wait, let's just slow down there. So you've gone under yeah and fourteen, let's go, what have you gone?
I've got under as well. I've gone like seven wins.
I'm pretty sure.
Yeah, lad, I don't rate them at all.
I've also gone under yeah and fourteen. I'm just like I looked at their least.
I'm like, oh nah, yeah, literally, I don't think that, but I just think that there's all these other teams are improving and yeah, just sort of staying there an some other seasons they could make fun of.
So they've got no major inns like obviously the a couple of draft picks with Cacau, obviously mid season draft last year at all. Sorry, Yeah, out of stringer Heppel, Kelly Wiedaman and him through retirement or trade, Nick Yeah, culture Nick Kin should have been the so what's your year na for? So the year for them, and this will lead into it is will Nate Caddy be the next breakout.
Forward in the competition?
Because we saw bits and pieces last year and we had this discussion a lot in the office, But I hate how much Nate Caddy rules because he plays for Essendon.
He looks really good.
So he's he's my big care that he kicks over thirty goals in his second season and he's obviously going to be their rising star this year.
I think there's already a breakout gun forward on the Western Bulldogs who's already sort of breaking out even bigger than him.
So I'm gonna say nah, but I think he is really good.
Yeah, and it's a very very annoying fact of life that Essendon have a wicked weapon like Nate Caddy.
In my head, I thought you were say Jamaal, but you're saying Sam Dusky. Yeah, that's right, Okay, cool.
Yeah, I'm going I'm going yeah. I genuinely think he's going to be like on that next level. He could push up towards und He's really good, really good.
Last year the Bombers had the double ups with North Melbourne and West Coast. This year Gold Coast, Sydney Dogs, Richmond, Carlton and Geelong, so they get the gift of Richmond.
The gift. Yeah, it should be a gift to the bank to win.
Their first four Gold Coast away Hawthorne at the mcg adelaide at marvel Port Adelaide at Marvel as well, then their last three at Geelong, sin Kilda and Carlton conveniently all in Melbourne. I think they have to go down the Highway for gelng actually, which is pretty funny. Their fixture is seventh hardest, so it's harder than last year and they can only manage nine wins. They haven't got much better. I think Nick Martin's probably going to be their best player this year. I think they play him on the wing and four of the boar. This half back chip chippy stuff didn't work when he actually rolled forward. He can kick goals and get a lot of the footy. I just it's the same as last year. They'll win a couple of games and we'll still be like their underlying factors are They're not much good, right.
I also just looked at this one. We're going overs. I love this.
We're back in Esmond and the Hill because they're unbeatable this year. Ridley Parish Martin. Can they stay healthy? That's what most of this entire season revolves around for them as well. Like Zarah's been incredible.
Over the last few years. We get this, but it feels like the ceiling is just the roof.
But if he was that good last year, like, if he regresses a tiny bit, they're cooked. Who's that merrit?
Oh?
Yeah, because he was so good, he was awesome, he was amazing, but he just carries them a bit. Yeah, got a lot of midfielders that just butchered the ball.
Kyle Langford could be better as what can be better than what it was last year as well? So there are little bits of improvement, but you just look at it and go, there's no It's like you're relying on Nate Caddy. But then it's like, oh, Nick Cox, Brian Harry Jones lifting like there's just like it's just just dudes, like not a gun.
Yeah, true, it's tough. Stats guy, What are your vibes? Just on this team? Real quick?
Oh? I hate Essendon?
Can I say that?
Yeah? I can say that now on this team, I think what I agree with Alex. They've got their top end is actually pretty good, but I think a lot of their top end the guys just can't. They butcher the ball, so they're not like classy like your likes of Geelong a few other teams. So yeah, I don't And Ridley's injured again. Oh, I ain't read this injured. There we go.
That was just that was tough have for four minutes.
Freemantle one of the most fascinating teams of season twenty twenty five. I believe last year they go twelve ten and one miss out on the finals. Thank you very much, put adelaide. The over under this year is thirteen and a half. That is a one and a half game improvement on last year. I have them going over. I think they they I think as you look at UBI media, including perhaps There's show, there is like a undercurrent of Fremantle optimism. And then Saturday night happened the All Stars I'm going to play a vanilla footy.
Are coming from the most vanilla coach in the league as well. It was certainly just so long.
The big question is though they went twelve ten and one this year, the big year NAIs can you win a fourth quarter?
Fremantle yen Na.
Yeah, yeah, because you said can they win a fourth quarter? Not how many?
Yes, they can win one. So yeah, it's the Royal. It's the Royal fourth quarter.
Just one, just one that will be better in the fourth quarter. They've they've stocked up, they've they were a bit stiff on a few games last year.
I think they'll go really well.
So they have a tough ish sort of schedule as well, right, so it's the fourth hardest. I think overall they have doubles up double ups against Sydney the West of Bulldogs, which is I feel.
Like that's just mandated each year. They just gonna play the Dogs twice.
Yeah, yeah, because of our Rory.
Lobb, Collingwood and Port you know, so pretty interesting ones there and the other ones like West Coast and killed it.
So you have these moments where you look.
At Frio, you go, right, their schedule is pretty tough, but you think about them at home, you think about their games against West Coast at home, they should feasibly win both of those, but as we saw, I think last year they dropped one of them.
They've got their away game against North at home.
Don't have the truney also, I don't I don't agree with fourth hardest.
I know a lot of sights are saying that they've literally got I think thirteen games at home. Then they get to play Richmond, Gatheran and US at home as well.
So I don't understand that.
So that's kind of why I went with the over the fifteen and eight and I think I have like a raft of team sort of in that fourteen to nine fifteen and eight swedge. It was the same as last year. Parody is king this year in the AFL it was last year, and I think we're going to see more of this. I think Free To have a really really talented list. When you go top to bottom, you look at it.
And go, geez, they've just got some dudes, like just some dudes.
Calb's wrong, Andy Brayshaw, you get their big in obviously, Shaye Bolton right. He just gives their forward line an extra sort of weird element of sparxplosiveness, sparkling.
When they need something, he can't do it.
The rising staff for me is Josh Tracy. My big goal is that he finishes in the top three of the Brown line Coleman Brownlow as well top three the Coleman. For Josh Tracy, I think he can absolutely kick a swag. I think if he and Jai have missed a healthy they are rolling the Bolton nipping around at the heels exactly. It's the perfect setup. It's really really, really really cool. I think Luke Jackson is the cold hero perfectly love.
What about them make he's twenty three?
He's twenty three? It makes no How was Luke Jackson twenty three? I feel like I'm four hundred years old. If he's twenty three, it makes no sense. Both he's been in the AFL for fourteen years.
How is he twenty three? It makes no damn sense.
But still I'm smashing this freeo over because I mean, obviously in the twelve and a half it's already gone up thirteen and a half. In other places, I'm going over that guy.
Yeah, this is my lock if we were doing locks like you do before, Alex. I think they're going to win sixteen seventeen games. They look so good. I'm surprised that sort of everyone in the media is talking them up. That hasn't really been people going, oh, they're not going to be that good.
Yeah.
I feel like I don't know if it's going to get to their heads, but I genuinely think they'll be top four.
They are the vibeust team of es this offseason.
Cool. They got a lot of cool, cool, good song, good song.
Bro, We're always Larry of the Preseas or beat Larry of the preseason hype team. But I feel like this might be the one we go. Last year was the Swan Last year they had the dip and like it sort of sucked Swans with the hype team last year two hundred year. All right, Alex Wand was your over run.
For that over?
So yeah, I went well over Adam winning sixteen games.
Whatever, free Man, The hype is real Geelong. We're going down the M one to Cadineia Park or whatever it's called.
Now, GM HBO Taxpayer Park.
The over run for the Geelong Cats thirteen and a half. That's a matter of fourteen and a half as well.
I yeah, I double checked that one third and a half, which I think is unders I think they had fifteen and eight last year.
Obviously finishing third. They just keep doing it Gelong.
Every year they play really well, they're old, and then they get this guy. He's fiftieth. Pick. Oh he's going to lost whatever pick lows up seven exactly. They just get all these guys, Oh, now he's going to be a future.
It's what happens when you have a good a good recruitment team. You know, I would you know, you don't pick Will Phillips at pick three.
Yeah, let's not go there.
We're talking about Geelong also, anything where you can just pay them under the table.
He's got a cut on sponsorship, take all the money.
And they have farms and all that. Like we touched on year talking about cotton on the end after this one, I think is can Bailey Smith fix their midfield?
Was it broken?
Yeah?
What was wrong with them? I'll say they were a kick away.
From give their midfield an element that it has been missing goals from the midfield.
Yeah, yes, yes, I'm gonna say, Nah, you're a hater.
I actually don't mind it. Know he's not like him, but I just think he's had so much time off. There's a lot of hype for a guy that hasn't played footy in I think it's about a year and a half eight months. Yeah, so I don't know if he's I think maybe next year he's going to come back and be really strong, but this year, I don't know.
He just really didn't rush his rehab last year. Gone, I don't want to go hang out with Bevo in August like I was just he went to Europe. Yeah exactly. I'll just wait, get my money and go to Jawan.
Yeah, he's hot girl. Summer.
Yeah, it was great summer.
I think there's an.
Elements that Bailey Smith provides the Geelong team that they are sorely needing. Yeah, if he is healthy and is actually ripparing one hundred percent. I love the headband. I'm all about the head Where the head band. I give me team headband. That's what we're all about here.
So headband, but not the sweat band that Aaron Norton wears.
I'm all about Aaron Norton to Aaron Norton, Yeah, like some flying doormats, as simple as that, Bruce Stool brucetool.
They have a pretty hard fixture. I think they've got to play Brisbane, Saint kild at jedws Port, Adelaide, Essendon and Richmond twice this year. So obviously you got Richmond's pretty easy, Saints pretty easy Essendon. We still don't really know what we're going to get there. First fall they've got Brisbane away, Freemantle at home, Saints away Melbourne at home. That's actually bloody tough to is a pretty good result there. And then what El said, they've got five day break, they got one five day break. They've got the equal fifth hardest according to some sites, and I don't know. I think they're they're a little bit better than that. I think they've got a pretty easy fixture, most improved. A lot of people are talking up in midfield one of the long haired blonde guys, that they have a million of them damage along Mitch Nevert. I think he's going to be really good. Short yeah, producerly, I just used to have long hair. Think I'm thinking of someone else, one of the other long haired. There's a lot of young hair anyway, literally has very short anyway. I think he's going to be really good on the wing there rising Star Loss and Humphreys. He looks so good the back end of last year. I don't know how they held They got him at pick seventy seven or something. Alex that that was pretty crazy. Best player Tom Stewart, if he can stay healthy.
Tom Stewart. That's a weird way of spelling Max Holmes.
I think Tomart's the most important players.
Most important is different the best.
Tom Shwart is way better than Maxim. Max Holmes had one good year. Tom Stewart is literally like twenty two, which was last year. Tom Steward is way better than Max Holmes. I'm not I'm not copping that from you too. I think people don't agree. Tom Stewart is, he's amazing. If you can tag Tom Steward out of a game, you're probably going to be the most important, and he's their best player, and then cold here you're like this one a matter from heaven. I think he's going to go really well?
Can I just throw one flag on their best player? We haven't mentioned him because he's hanging out with his cows.
Jes Yeah, that's true, Jesus better than Maxims If Jesse kids sixty goals, like they've got two players better than Maximons Stewart, I think, nah, Jesse. I don't know.
Geelong fans in the comments, please let us know who do you think your best player is and your most important?
Why is it not Max Holmes or Danger? Anyway, So I'm going I'm going over. I think they're going to be top four again and go really well.
I have them fourteen and nine, Alex eighteen and five, Top two, Top two's eighteen and five.
Yeah, geez, really yeah, they're they're I think they're my premier at this stage.
Wow, all right, two more let's do it. My beloved gold Go Sons. The team win total over unders Alex.
They went what they went eleven and twelve last year, they're over under this year is eleven and a half.
So you are joking. Come on.
All they need to do is.
Literally beat some Kilda away.
Last year they got their host ever wins they do.
They hit that over So this year they're double ups are Essendon, Melbourne, Adelaide, Richmond, Brisbane and GWS bring.
It back, bring it back? So eleven and twelve.
Last year over runners eleven and a half, so they literally want them to improve.
I half win this season, get a draw.
But I was I was reading out there play twice before getting into the year.
Now because of it, Well, let's do it. Let's just do the r at the top. Let's go.
Do they play finals?
The biggest question for gold cost signs.
Can I have another lock? They're no way, in no way or dementia anywhere in the whole world. Are the Sons playing finals this year? They've got absolutely no chance. Their team isn't that bad, but all the other teams around them are getting better. No chance.
That's a good social clip for Leo, So sorry, I'm going to say that this is coming to you from Top four Adelaide last year. For me, I am absolutely locking Gold Coast over fifteen to eight let's go.
Games.
They play below the twenty seventh parallel, it's eight exactly really, so they've got one out in. I think they've got West Coast in the in the coast matchup that's below the twin. That's a win, that's a I think they've got a win.
And I think they've got another win away too, so I think they get to fifteenth.
I know they've got North Melbourne gathering, they got West Coast away in round two. So for me, their most improved player will go to that Jed Walter, rising star Jed Walter, Cultiro Ned Moyle.
There's a not too much Jed Walton. He's not even going to play.
We're just calling this the gym all stars at this. I love Jed Walter, I love Ned Moyle. I love my stupid sexy Flanders who's injured. Noah Anderson, I love him as well. I'm all over the suns issh.
So the Inns that they've bought in obviously they've got a couple of draft picks again through the academy, but they're trading inns were the weapon John Noble and Dan really, which does help them shore up a bit defensively and adds a bit of run and gun there. Their main out was Jacklicosis leaving going to Port Adelaide, which then allowed them to get Noble and Really in so it all works out better because we didn't see the best of Jacklicosis, and I think him leaving is probably the best thing for them. You have a look at their They've only got one Thursday game, which is one of their ones in dawn one five day break. They've got the equal thirteenth hardest draw according to whoever did this.
But this is the year they play finals. My big call is they'll go unbeaten at home, inclusive of Darwin.
I don't mind them.
How many home games is it again, like ten?
Eleven?
Yeah?
Okay, that's that's why I reckon they're going under because they're only going to win those and then maybe win one or two away. So it's what do they need eleven?
Yeah?
So I don't think so.
So if they beat West Coast Away in Melbourne Away in the first couple of weeks, like there is there is a vision here. They're not all going well that they're four and zip to start.
The year, and the lid's off, and then you could all jump on the bandwagon, which I'm already driving like. I'm like fanging along like it as a jet ski and Jed Walder and Dimmer are behind them banging through the waterways of the gold Coast is doing some sick jumps. It's gonna be awesome. Then you can jump on with me at some point. But they beat Essendon to open up the season. They smash West Coast in round two.
That's away that West Coast.
Go away Melbourne. I'm not afraid of Melbourne. If I'm Gold Coast, go beat Go prove that you're actually belonging in this AFL. They host Adelaide, they can win that game. They go against North Melbourne and gather around. They then take on Richmond down here. They start the season six and oh book it. So we're going to the finals. They're gonna they're gonna play finals. They're gonna make the Grand Final. Carlton beat them in the Grand Final. It's going to be an all gym Grand finals.
Contrast from from me to gym, I reckon anyway, I've got them going thirteen and ten and making the finals. Oh my god, you too. Wow.
I said I wasn't gonna do it again, and I've done it, and I hate myself for it.
I love the gold Goo sounds.
I think it's just more heart than our mind on this one. Anyway, we believe starts going.
You got to memtion it to wrap up the over unders Part one. The Greater Western Sydney Giants. It's a big, big sound. But is it so fifteen and eight? Last year they finished fourth every undred This year is fourteen and a half. I have them fourteen and nine. I'm going under because the big yearn R for the GWS Giants is did they hit their tipping point last year?
Alex Yeah, I've been on this all off seat. That's just because you go for Sydney. I'm saying, Nah, They've got Jesse Hogan. He's going to be right up there in the common again. They've got so many guys. They proved last year they didn't have to rely on Toby Green, he wasn't even at his best. In the past, they would go Toby kick four goals otherwise we can't win. I think their team is so well rounded that they're going to go over.
So I think they're good, and then I'm going through their stuff and I think I'll end up landing just going under because I feel like the latter range I had written down in our social clips. I'm like, this could be two to six because if it actually clicks and they have not hit that tipping point, they could be a top two team top two. They have a lot of talent. I just feel like the talent hit a point last year.
Were like, this is very good.
They're pretty deep, but I don't know they're deep enough. I think that defense is really really good Sam Taylor, Leaka Lear and Go. But to bring in Jake Stringer, I just I feel like, what are we doing?
It makes no sense. I'm not convinced of that at all. I think the big care for them was very easy.
It's like Jake Stringer doesn't hit twenty goals the entire season for GWS. I don't think he plays half the season, Rising starts up with a film. Fink Callahan. Darcy Jones is the cult hero most improved player. Legally, I think.
He's going to have to get a consistent game.
He was fantastic last year, and I think the backup of the season was really, really, really good. The best player at the time Green versus Toby green thing. I think Toby Green has now sort of hit a point where you're like, is he can he carry a team? Can he win games of his own boot like you could?
Yes?
And I'm not wildly convinced, so I remain luke warm. I think on the g W strines this year, I was much more bullish on them than the Tom Green injury stuff.
You're like, he's their best player besides Toby Greenfield. He's so inconsistent exactly, I'd say Jesse Ogan.
It was wildly inconsistent to start seasons last Yeah, excellent across the back half.
I don't know.
I just don't know that this team has a nut. I can't believe cadmen. Yeah, Capin's fine, but it was like much more.
Rising star, not most improved start.
Let's go fink Gallien, I think.
But Finkallien's he's like, well, fourth year, but.
Fink Gallian could actually be a legit star if he actually hits it. That's what literally rising star means, right, he could be a star by the end of this season. I think I think Cadmen in that forward line quite fits with Hogan bringing string its like, where does camin fit in? I think it's get it gets less, uh, the lesser forward. My point is I had them still fourteen and nine, so it's very very, very very competitive.
But that's it.
I think I've got about eight.
Teams at fourteen and nine, so it's got three teams winning like three games.
Basically, Yeah, it's ridiculous, but I think they did hit there to a big point. Last year.
That was their year to win the flag. They get beaten by Sydney in Sydney, it was a dumb loss. It was a stupid loss. Now, want to blame about yourself, GWS. I'm very disappointed, just like your parents. Anyway, Then they got the pitch against Brisbane.
That was the worst one.
I'm going I'm going under and I'm going yeah, they hit their tipping points. That s guy, you're going over under what you're at?
Yeah, I'm going over.
Like I said, I think their depth is still there.
They don't have to rely on their big names. Jesse Ogan is going to win the Coleman again and they'll be top four alex Under.
They missed the finals, mister finals.
Oh, I can see that happening with my fourteen and nine. As I said, I've got like about eight different teams on top.
I've got them twelve and eleven, eleven and twelve and missing finals in ninth tenth.
I reckon, this is the most different we've ever been on a Runners because the competation so even.
Exactly, so I actually have one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine.
Ten teams between fifteen and thirteen wins. Jesus is that possible?
Yes, it all adds upsets going. I am a mathemagician, but there you go. That is GWS right and that will do is for the first part of over Runders. I love over Runders. There is one thing better. That's the first nine teams. So we will be back on Friday for the second half, which will be Leave Hawthorne through to Western Bulldog. Yes that's the final team when it comes out phabetically nailed it. Uh So, thanks for listening, Thanks for jumping on, Alex, thank you, thank you Stat's gay xs Jim, and thanks of course to producer Geryld for.
Doing actually all the work and social guy Leo.
For reminding stats Guy that Mitch never doesn't have long hair because stat's guy just racist towards Geelong players. I think, wow, he's like they all look the same. They've got long blonde hair and head bends like that guy. I watch a game of footy for once. Now remember to smash it like across all the social house, doing lots of fun stuff, face the ig x, TikTok and of course YouTube subscribe starring Like all of our other shows, what We've got Quick Today Podcast, NBA Australia, NFL Australia, Hold all tickets, AFLW Today as well.
Come up later in the year.
True Blood's now in the family too.
Part of the family True Bloods Dean Cox.
First interview that should be out Thursday Friday.
Nice get around them all like I don't know a Sun's Blues final What do you reckon that? That'd be the great need to break old grindies my wife for all right, that's it, we'll catch it on Friday from more IFL Today our Verondez. Until then, look after yourselves and remember forties almost back.