In this hour of Ready, Set, Bet!, hosts Matt Brown and Mike Somich are joined in studio with the CEO of Circa Resort & Casino, Derek Stevens, to discuss President Donald Trump onsite at Circa and the NFL Conference Championship games! Plus, Matt and Mike breakdown the matches between the Commanders/Eagles and Bills/Chiefs heading into Conference Championship Sunday.
This is ready set bet with Matt Brown and Mike Sammich on Vson the Sports Betty Network.
It is ready start bet here on Vson.
Matt Brown, Mike Sommitch coming to you from the largest sports book in the world here in Las Vegas, Circus Sports and.
Joining us on the desk.
Nothing.
Just a normal day here, Just a normal day at Circus Sports. Just guys out in sports book bag.
No big deal, right, Derek, It's been a heck of it. It's been a heck of a week.
Dark Stevens joined us on the desk here after a crazy, crazy, crazy.
Twenty four hours. I can only imagine it's been.
It's been terrific, you know.
Yeah, I think a few people, some VCENT fans or some people that followed me on Twitter. Yeah, we got a phone call on on Wednesday afternoon and all of a sudden, last forty eight hours been pretty interesting here. I've I've found I've found a few new areas around around Circa that I've never been to before, a couple of extra fires, game and what but no, We've had a lot of fun and just adds to a little bit of excitement and what a great weekend this is We're coming up the championship Sunday weekend, and uh, I mean have a championship Sunday while I get to hang around with the chief executive of our country.
Was pretty cool.
Yeah.
For those weren't following Derek on Twitter, didn't follow what was going on on television today, the President of the United States was here in Las Vegas, not only in Las Vegas, but on property here at Circa and Derek, of course, as you said, I mean, this all came together fairly quick, right.
Yeah, it did.
I mean I would like to debunk a couple of things I saw on Twitter. President Trump did not come to Circa today because he was trying to sign up for next year's Circus Survivor. We have we have done had we have not had our meeting yet on exactly what.
The rules that's going to be for Circus Surviving next year. Yeah, so that did not happen.
But no, he came out and launched a very a major, major, major element no no tax on tips, and obviously that's something massive for Las Vegas, mass so for the state of Nevada massive. I mean, it's it's huge for every tipped.
Employee in the country.
So uh when when I got the call to uh see if we would be able to uh have a venue to have him launch the launch. This this element of what he promised to to to people in our country.
You know, when the president and his team call.
You quote the local paper, you know, like the bust of where they pick up the phone and then you figure it out after that. So, uh, we had a we had a great day, brought a lot of people down here. This is a This was to be honest with a little less political then. I'm not the most political guy, but this was all about I think what's good for the country and if we can if we can add uh uh more cash going into our economy, I think we're all going to be better off.
Well, I think it's huge for downtown as well. This is the first time that we've had a president downtown here at Las Vegas, versus being on the strip. You must be honored to have him here at CIRCA.
Yeah, it's I mean, it's a massive honored have a sitting president visit any any business, you know. I mean I've been to a handful of hotels, businesses, restaurants over across the country where you know you have a plaque and says, you know, you know FDR was there, John F. Kennedy was there, or Dwight Eisenhower or Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton, you know, and and then has a lot of a lot of meaning, Uh, you know, obviously we love sports here, but they have a sitting president come here, particularly one that actually was in the casino gaming businesses right, he looked out was that that was that the biggest Is that the biggest sports book?
Yeah?
It really is.
And I'm not gonna I I I can't make a you know, I I can't do what Frank Kellyando does.
But but I mean I would tell you I started laughing.
At what he said, the biggest sports book. I thought it was pretty cool.
He said, well, you got to spend a couple of minutes with him as well when.
He was here. Anything that you can share with the people out there.
Yeah, I mean one of my key things is that, you know, going in, I wasn't sure that I was going to be able to actually get sixty seconds or a couple of minutes. I got a little bit more than that, so I was very fortunate. And then after he walked through the casino and go to the Craft's table and all that, which which got a funny couple of funny story out. We're gonna get down on the segment. But but yeah, I was able to talk about a couple of things. You know, I thought that I wanted to get it right in front of him. There's a lot of legislators that have tried to push things and for one reason or another, not anyone's fault, just died in Congress. But remember it was nineteen seventy one, is when twelve hundred dollars twelve hundred dollars limit was one was set to get a W TWOG nineteen seventy one. When I told that to President Trump, because nineteen seventy one, I mean, we're talking fifty forty are you kidding me? It hasn't been index since then. It that would equate to ninety two hundred dollars right now. You know, I said, you can eliminate And we did the math on this. So I presented them, we can eliminate ninety five percent of all W two g's.
You just raise it to five thousand.
If you go to ten thousand, we could eliminate ninety seven point eight percent. So I said we got to think about that. There's thirty one million W two g's that we were were provided in last year. It's a lot of wasted time. Let's get more efficient. I know he's about efficiency, right, We got to get rid of that. And then and then for us on sports bedding, it looks like aboux sit. This excise tax is ridiculous. So get this number. In twenty twenty three, there was about two hundred and ninety million of federal excise tax paid by the legal operators two hundred and ninety How much was generated by the legal operators in gaming tax two point one billion, seven times more. The only reason this federal sports gaming excise tax was put into place, it wasn't to generate revenue. We've lost the focus of why this came into place in nineteen fifty. It was only done to provide a scenario where the US government could go after the mob for not paying their taxes. That's why they wanted to create some this federal excise tax.
Now has turned around.
The federal excise.
Tax only hurts the legalized operators.
So President Trump and I had a little discussion on that.
You know, if you.
Eliminated the federal excise tax. You lose three hundred million, but I bet you pick up a billion in other taxes.
This is just this ridiculous, this federal excise.
And no one knows where the money's gone for the last fifty years, either money is no one can trace where this money has gone. It's like been paid and paid and paid, and no one knows where it goes.
Now.
I've talked to the American Gaming Association, Bill Miller, talking him many times. You know, nobody understands the term federal sports betting excise tax. It's very it's very blood terri It should be called the federal illegal book making preservation tax. Maybe you'll get a little more policity, but it's got to end. I mean, it's uh, it's some one of those things where he had a little opportunity to talk about talk about sports, talk about business. Uh and uh, I'm honored that US, our sitting president, came to visit circu.
It's interesting with a lot of the laws that are still around from fifty sixty years ago that effected the business operations that you have from a day to day perspective. And we got some video here right now of the President playing craps here at your casino as well. You said you got a couple of crap stories from this.
Oh yeah, no, he did not, he did not.
He did not play crabs.
So he ran into a couple of our regulars, A couple of guys actually been on vison I think before.
Uh.
You know, the tough thing was when when Alex took the shot, he rolled the four on the come out. God, I wish I would add a sixty rader, but but uh no, It's very clear that President Trump had had a lot of fun uh walking walking in uh in an environment that he used to walk in all the time.
Well, what we got a few minutes here left with you.
We do have a couple of big things happening as well tomorrow here in the book, this thing will be absolutely packed here behind us Washington and Philadelphia. This all the way out to six six and a half at a couple of the books out there, Derek sitting forty seven and a half on that total. What do you think about this commander's team heading up to Philly. Well, I mean we're still a six though, right. I think we've seen I think I think I think we've seen around town a couple of shops went to six and a half. We're still hanging on him six.
So we are still very willing and able to take.
So you've got a lot of Commanders money, then.
You know we we we're kind of in a situation where, yeah, we've taken a lot of Commander's money here.
It's going to be interesting to see.
Like the one great thing about is on Vson you get to see these bets blits and probably DraftKings and Circa maybe the most useful comparison. It'll be very interesting to watch the bet splits tomorrow.
I was looking at the best splits last night, and the Commanders have more tickets almost every single place you look. So they are becoming a very popular underdog after being able to knock off unfortunately You're Detroit Lions last week. The late game, the game, I think a lot of people are really excited about. Here, the Buffalo Bills head into Kansas City to take on the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes we're one and a half two around town. You guys are sitting at two right now. What do you think about this? The late AFC Championship game.
I think we're going to see a lot of Buffalo money coming in. I just I think we're going to see a lot of Buffalo money. So far, we've been okay in the two way circus sports is not biased by.
Conference championship. Nor are we biased by who will win the Super Bowl.
So that's one thing maybe some listeners, some viewers, you have to think about every sports book sometimes can be biased by what type of liability they have hanging out there on Super Bowl or on a conference championship. We're pretty neutral on this, so we don't really have a bias going in on that. I would say that tomorrow I would expect the Chiefs Buffalo game to be the most wagered non super Bowl in US history.
It makes a lot of sense. I mean, you have two marquee teams, two teams that were supposed to be there. You know, these are teams that were talked about all year long. You got an MVP candidate, you got a guy that's got a couple of MVP Super Bowl trophies. So I can only imagine, do you have a leen in either one of these games?
Well?
Yeah, my leen? My leen is I wish the Lions would have showed up. You know, you could say you don't know. I'm a fan.
I'm a fan.
Maybe in some ways I want Jaden Daniels to do this because I can then feel good about my fandom and say, Okay, we got the Detroit Lions had a terrible game in the Divisional and we got beat a good, up, up and coming team that we didn't know they were that good. So maybe I'm rooting for Washington and I'm probably always gonna just root for Buffalo a little bit here. Just I think there's a little element above Buffalo that I think people want Buffalo back. They're a little bit more of the New America's team.
I'm looking forward to these games. The sports book is gonna be absolutely rocking tomorrow.
Derek A. You're gonna be be up there in your normal sea.
I'll be in my normal sea. Yeah. Willill just told me we're sold out here. We're sold out in the stadium.
Swim.
It's going to be unbelievable. This is good.
So again, if you come on down here if you want to see some Actually, there's be a lot of people around having a ton of fun here at Serga. Derek, appreciate the time. I know, it's an awesome twenty four to forty eight hours for you here. Awesome for this city as well again Washington, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kin City.
This is the place that you want to get it.
Welcome back to Ready set bet with Matt Brown and Mike Sammage on fisind the Sports Betty.
Network were set bet here on beson map Round Mike Soamich live in Las Vegas here from circa back to our regular regular sportsman. Tell you listen, not very often that you get a sitting president coming to the facility that you're at. Michael, there was questions whether I was gonna be able to even get in here today, whether I was going to be able to do this on the desk with you, because we didn't know how long the president was going to hang out and whatnot.
I might have to do this for my living room. Who knows what was going on.
It was. It was a wild morning. It was a wild morning.
I did not have getting searched by Secret Service on my twenty twenty.
Five BINGO card, but we checked that boxing January.
Early on in the year here, man like who checked that one off? Nice, nice and early.
But I appreciate the time from Derek Steven stopping by cool cool moment here for him and the people at CIRCA.
But let's get to.
The reason people are going to be tuning into this network right now. Let's get to Washington and Philadelphia. This is six six and half in favor of the Eagles at home over the Commanders. Forty seven. Forty seven and a half is our total out there. And guys, what we've decided to do for the show here today, if you really want an in depth kind of look at every single angle of betting these games, that's kind of what we decided to do. So we're gonna give you the overall thoughts of this game, the overall thoughts of Buffalo and Kansas City come back to you with all of our passing prop thoughts, all of our rushing prop thoughts, all the receiving prop thoughts. Because we know everyone's kind of got a different angle to we'll play these things. You might not love the side or the total in any one of these games, Mike and so Hey, we're going to go in depth on some of the other ways that you can get in on these things.
We are and I love the fact that as gambling has evolved over the last few years, specifically the prop markets have evolved for these conference championship games as well.
You've got robust touchdown markets.
You've got robust versus markets, which is something I'm going to talk about quite a bit here. One passer versus the other, minus a certain amount of yards rushers heads up against each other. You've got just a bunch of different markets that you can attack and choose to how you want to attack them. That's why I'm excited for how we split this up. We'll be covering each game with each of those subsets of props so that we can talk through e each of the options and the places that we've decided to go to bet on these two games.
So, as we said, six six and a half in favor of the Eagles, forty seven and a half is the kind of the prevailing total that you can find a forty seven out there the news here in this one, as we head in, you've got right guard Sam Cosmi for the Commanders tore his ACL against the Lions. He obviously is out unfortunate injury for them as they head into this game. And then defensive tackle Dron Payn also out. He had three dnps this week, officially listed his question. Well, a little bit earlier today they decided that he was not going to be able to play center. Camp Jurgens over on the Eagle side of things is questionable, though he did get in a limited practice on Friday.
Is Commander's team. Before the season started, Mike as long as one hundred and fifty.
To one to win the Super Bowl. So if you're sitting on that ticket, good on you. You can monetize that one for sure. Eagles of course one of the favorites, So anywhere in that ten to twelve ish range before the season started on this Eagles squad. And so as we kind of look at this breakdown, I think that it all kind of starts with Saquon Barkley and it kind of ends with what this defense is able to do against him. Because Saquon Barkley has been the driving force for this team, not only through the playoffs but really through the latter half of the season, and I think that you and I have done a pretty good job of giving him as flowers. I know we're in this era of running backs don't matter, but Saquon Barkley matters. I do a little bit that definitely matters. And so the biggest question, I think question number one in this is Saquon Barkley versus this defense.
Yeah, it is.
And in Saquon Barkley, we talked about running backs don't matter quote uno they.
Do if they're the top end.
And Barkley has had had three hundred and forty five carries in the regular season. He's had fifty one so far in the playoffs. So have you worked low averaging almost twenty five carries a game in both of those situations, And in the two previous games versus Washington, he's gone twenty nine for one point fifty and he has gone twenty six for one forty six, So heavy workloads in both of those games, getting close to that one to fifty total in both of them. And you mentioned off the top the injury that was reported today that we're not going to have Deron Payin who's going to be at detackle or will not be at dtackle here for the Washington Redskins, he may be their most important run stopper, which really sets up how you're going to decide to defend Sakuon Barkley. Are you going to load it up with eight with nine men boxes and be able to just leave single coverage outside to aj Brown, who's been struggling in DeVonta Smith on the other side. And the injury you didn't mention is the Jalen Hurts knee injury, which it looks like he is going to play. It looks like he'll be wearing a brace for the game. His mobility is in question, and that almost means that this Barkley versus Washington's run defense is even more important. We've seen this Washington team face two very good running backs in the first two rounds. Bucky Irving was able to get his and for some reason, the Bucks stop running the football in the second. We saw Gibbs averaging fourteen yards of carry in the first half, yet we were throwing it on third and one. I don't think you're going to get that same benefit here from Philadelphia. I think this is run, run, run and run some more. And the one thing with Saquon too is we saw the Rams try and do this with heavy boxes. There is a little bit of the thorn on that rose there. If you do have a heavy box and he gets through the front, he's gone, and then all of a sudden you have the seventy yards Saquon Barkley run. I don't think they stop him running the football. I think this is a huge problem for the commanders here. I think he has a shot at averaging five six yards of carry and getting anywhere from twenty five to thirty carries in this game.
And therein kind of lies the thing here, So one of the obvious point of attack. It's not just because Sakuon Barkley is awesome. It also is because this is the obvious week point of this defense. Right and now you mentioned a defensive tackle starting defensive tackle out.
And you have to think that the defense was bad anyway.
Before before and the starters think of what the replacement level guy must.
Be, and this is Deron payn went in the line.
Their run stop win rate goes from sixty four percent down to forty eight percent, So a significant drop off with just that one player out of the lineup for Washington.
So Saquon versus this defense of course, big big, big storyline here in this one.
And then also so the next.
Biggest storyline of course has to be the rookie sensation in Jaden Daniels.
And was Jayden Daniels going to be able to do.
Up against this defense that we came into the season, Mike, we we were kind of talking him through this. You know, as we were previewing all these teams, we thought this defense was going to be better. We did not think this is going to be arguably the number one defense in the NFL. And the thing was is they started out hot, they stayed hot, and then they closed hot. This was a team that if you go and you can go in and you can chop the season up right, one of the best defenses to start the year, one of the best defenses in the middle part portion of the year, and then if you just want to cut it off, in the second half of the season, they continued to be one of the best defenses out there. And so now Jayden Daniels comes into this game. Remember the second there was any pick a game in there against this So like you kind of have to take out the grain of salt, right, he pick a.
Game where they had to score twenty two in the fourth quarter to win by three.
Yeah, so just just kind of keep that in mind.
It's going him going up against this defense that has really and truly, week after week after week shown up and shut a lot of people down.
Yeah, and you you mentioned the major injury Sam Cosmi going to be missing at right guard. That matters because there's this guy named Jalen Carter who would be lining up across from now a backup guard for this this Washington Commanders team. So Philadelphia has a big edge on that front as well, where now you have this front four that it consistently this year has been dominant when trying to rush the passer without blitzing. And that's something that is key here because if you don't blitz all of a sudden, it's a lot easier to control the run game from Jayden Daniels as well, and that's been a big part of his success is his legs. He's had two games against this Philly defense. I would say the second one was was good with some bad sprinkled in there. There were five turnovers for Washington that game. He threw two interceptions. He also threw five touchdowns in the game. He ran for ninety yards in that spot. But the first game he struggled, that was not a very good game. That's one that the Eagles won pretty comfortably. I think this is a tall task for Daniels as well. I mean, we talked about this game last Sunday. We both bet four and a half on the Eagles last Sunday. We said that was the best number you were going to get. That is the best number you're going to get. I after crunching my numbers and putting Hurts at eighty percent, that's what I assumed Hurts for for this game, and removing both the dtackle and offensive linemen for the Commanders, I think this should be seven and a half eight. I think there's still some value here on Philly.
We will talk a ton about the Saquon Barkley effect here whenever we get to the rushing prop segment of the show.
Today, Mike.
But I mean, this is just a guess because obviously they're not gonna tip their hands what you're gonna do. But if you're Washington understanding what you're up against here, you just have to sell out. You're gonna create a bunch of one on ones with AJ Brown and Devonte Smith, who are awesome receivers, and you just have to pray that Hurts can't make the throws.
Like yeah, I mean, that's basically what it comes down.
That's really the scary part about this game is that, Okay, we're gonna we're gonna commit nine to the box. Both the safeties are gonna be up. Guess what, You've got two really good receivers on the outside who are good in jump jump ball coverage, and let's be fair, like Lattimore.
It doesn't seem like he is what he was.
Right on the other side, you've got you've essentially got two other rookies you have playing on the corner position. And the rookie out of Michigan for the Commanders has been good for them, but he hasn't you know, last game specifically, and comes out with two interceptions, but I'm not sure I like him heads up consistently in man coverage against DeVonta Smith the entire time, So that is also a weakness. And again, if Barkley gets through that front line, he's gone, Yeah, there's no one back there to catch him. You're not gonna have the angle if there's one good block, and he gets a whole night night for seventy yards. So there's just so many advantages here. On the other side of this, this Commander's team has been just living on a dream this entire season. If you look at their fourth down percentage unbelievable. If you look at their points off fourth thounds, more than seven points a game featuring a drive which they have a fourth down conversion, and just think about that, that means that they're scoring in at least two drives every single game with a fourth down conversion in It very hard to live that well on the side of luck consistently throughout a full season.
Matt guys, come join us over at vs and Pro. It is a really good deal we got going on right now, twenty five percent off an annual subscription with the promo code bet. That's going to get you not only the guides that we do, the betting splits that even Derek talked about a little bit earlier, but you also get the daily picks in every single sport that's going on out there across the industry. We're getting the horse betting season, Tennis is up and going, golf is up and going. There's all kinds of stuff going to be going on over there at Vson Prone. Of course, the video feed goes along with that as well. Vson dot Com slash Subscribe Promo code bet be easy.
Welcome back to Ready Set Bet with Matt Brown and Mike Sammage on feast in these sports.
Betty Network.
Coming back here on Ready set bet Matt Brown, Mike Summitch, coming to you.
From Las Vegas.
Circus Sports, largest sports book in the world, Gonna be sold out tomorrow. Rocking and rolling here Den Downtown Las Vegas is everybody gets ready for these two championship games, not only down here but upstairs as well.
Everything's sold out.
The stadium swim sold out, which is impressive because what it's gonna be forty degrees here.
It's not exactly warm, not.
Really, but that's it heated to eighty degrees year round up there. So I imagine some people from Wisconsin, maybe some people from you know, from from the East East coast over there, coming into town. They're like, man, this is like summer over here.
Pretty much the best polar plunge you could do. Jumping into eight eighty degree pools and two hot tubs.
It's not bad at all. Got the football up there on the big screen. Listen, cocktails of fay.
Have you a couple got it?
Got a Blackjacks tables up there? Come on, let's go.
A couple of cocktails. You forget that it's forty degrees.
They warm you up too, don't they. It's not just the pools.
I wouldn't forget because I loathe the cold, but you know most people would forget that for sure.
We talk a ton of football here. That said, it is horse betting season.
It is horse betting season.
And not only at horse betting season.
We're about to get into some serious horse betting stuff, right we are.
We actually had some serious horse betting stuff as well today. Pegasus World Cup happened down at gaul Stream Park today. White to Barrio gets the job done there is the second choice on the betting board, winning a massive race there. And the Southwest Derby also happened today down million dollar three year old race at Oakland Park with points prep for the Derby as well. So we are officially rolling into point season.
Now.
It's going to be a fun fun time here on Vison covering all those different derby races.
So we here two year olds and three year olds? Is there a senior division?
Other like, do we have like a do we have like out there where we got like some seven year olds racing?
So there are seven year olds racing all over the place. White to Barrio is a six now. I believe it's been while since he was in the derby, won the Florida Derby actually, and then won the Breeders Cup Classic as well. They just call it the older division, so older males and then older older, not.
To make them feel bad, exactly, Okay, And you have.
Horses that run until they are ten or eleven years old? Really, yeah, horses live a long time, dude.
Well, no, they live a long time.
Just didn't think that, you know, you could excel at the advanced age.
Especially if they make the ultimate equipment change on the males, they will run for longer.
Oh well yeah, gotcha, yeah yeah, the snip snip, yeah yeah, well yeah.
Yeah, yeah, you can get that, you know, yeah.
Get that fixed, get them a little more focused.
Well, Mike's going to be you know, we've got not just Mike. We have a couple other guys helping out with the horse picks along with you. And see, what you need to do is make sure whenever they have these articles up or they're given stuff out on air, that you can go in and make the bet and you do that at first bat so be sure use our partner over there. It is first bet dot Com one st b e t dot com. So you'll have your account nice and loaded up so that whenever you read the article or hear people on air give you some good picks out there, you can just run in and throw it into your first Bet account. When you sign up, use a promo code VS in two hundred. You're gonna get a twenty percent rebate for your first sixty days up to two hundred dollars. A cool thing about the app as well, not only can you make your bets, you can sit there and watch the races inside the app. Two instant gratification. First bet dot com one st b et dot com Today.
And guess what, Matt, what's that?
We're just eighten minutes away from Santa Anita Race number ten.
So if you did sign up for first Hulda firing, are we fired? We can? We can get a little piece here.
We're gonnaigure old.
Peace here the favorite and the last race of santan Neita, the tenth race. Here is the two stuttering who's coming off of a Grade one effort. But it's a dead closer. Not too much speed in this race, so let's look to the eight Star of the night, eight to one, right, now on the live line, so getting a very nice price on this horse is coming back off a layoff, has tactical speed, and trainer Mark Latt has been absolutely on fire twenty eight percent so far win rate here at this meet. So we're going with the eighth star of the night, who should be prominent early and trying to hold off the too late.
Buffalo Bills at the Kansas City Chiefs.
This is currently sitting one and a half to two out there in the market. Forty eight and a half is a prevailing total though at Fanatics that just went to forty eight, so some people come in and playing.
A battle on that total.
Yeah, coming in playing the under over there, at least at one of the books. As we head into this one, Bill's could be founded about as highs. I mean, I saw like a seventeen to one preseason on the Bills. People were kind of wondering the same thing you and I were, Where who's he gonna throw to a little bit? We know it didn't matter, so about seventeen to one on them, of course, the Chiefs were. You're betting favorite entering the season here in this one, Bills twelve and seven against the spread. This season, and the only reason I bring that up is because we know that the Chiefs had a tough time covering the spread out there, depending on what the final number is. So these are always kind of estimates of lines bounce around, but somewhere in the seven and eleven or six and twelve ish range against the spread, depending on kind of closing numbers and stuff like that. The Bills played the highest rate of over games of any team this season. As it is on the Bill's side, safety Taylor rap is out for them. Starting corner Christian Binford is questionable, but he was downgraded to a D and P on Friday after two limiteds on Wednesday and Thursday. As we always say here, Mike never good to be downgraded.
Nope.
During the course of the week on the Chiffs. On the chief side of things, they listed four players on the injury report, but all four of them got three full practices this week, so nobody on the injury report basically there for the Chiefs.
Yeah, Chiefs as healthy as as you can be at this point in the NFL season, which is rare. I mean, it feels like every time we're talking about Chiefs in the conference finals game, it's Mahomes has an ankle. There's that offensive lineman out where we were like a ford string wide receiver is going to be in there this time.
They're going to go in pretty healthy.
The defensive side with wrap out, and then Milano, who has not popped up that much on the injury report, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. I think that is that matters. We talk about hamstring injuries quite a bit, and the fact that those have the tendency to flare up.
Milano a big key to this defense.
And then being able to specifically stop stop both the run and the pass when from the running back position, so that matters as well.
This has been an interestingly bet games so far. Matt.
We were on air opens one and a half. We both played Kansas City minus one and a half. We saw some bills money come in when the limits were very low, gets down to just a half point immediately Kansas City pops and it got all the way up to two and a half before starting to float back down. Here we had Derek Stevens on, owner of Circa Casino, Circa Casino and sportsbook. Here he mentioned that he's expecting Buffalo money tomorrow. We'll see if we get back to that one and a half number across the board. This is gonna be a fun, fun game, and we always make fun of the keys to the game where it's you know, hey, red zone efficiency and turnovers are going to decide it. I hate to say it, red zone efficiency and turnovers are probably going to decide this football game.
Matt.
A very interesting deal last week with this chief defense now, and only say interesting because this was a team that was getting a lot of presure on the quarterback as it was anyway, but whatever they did to that offensive line for the Texans man, they put him in a crowd, pressured on twenty two of his forty one dropbacks in the game. Of course, get sacked eight times in the game. And this Chiefs team gonna go in obviously going to continue to do what they've been doing all year long, which is they blitz and they get pressure. So it is a team that blitzes, but they get home with their blitzes. You obviously know how unbelievably coached this team is, and so this is not one of those teams.
That blitz is in vain.
Like you and I talk all the time about it, doesn't matter if you have the second blitz rate in the league, if your pressure rate is twenty fourth. But I just means your blitzes aren't working, like you're not getting home. They're not exotic enough, they're not tricking them, they're not doing or well, that's not the case with the Chiefs. The Chiefs are bringing the extra guy, and the extra guy's getting there.
And fag Nolan does such a good job of disguising when these blitzer are coming. It's not just hey, look we've got him in third and long. We're gonna blitz and then try and run up and make a tackle. Now he comes on first down from a corner bit, blitz, a slot blitz. They're coming from all over the place. They're dropping some other players off in the opposite side, just really trying to confuse protections and that that Houston offensive line is not very good, and so that day they had a lot of success confusing them. Houston's offensive line did to have success moving the Chiefs off the football and running though Mixing had a good game in that spot. That's something that Buffalo is going to focus in on here, is trying to run cook specifically, we saw them run, run, and run some more against Baltimore, even though Baltimore very stout against the run, I would expect we get a big dose of Buffalo's run game here to try and slow down that Spagnolo blitzing defense.
And you know he ran efficiently against against Denver as well. Like I mean, so this is these were two of the best run defenses in the league. The Bills didn't give up running against them and actually found out a way to have success running that ball. So you're actually getting Kansaity is good against run, but you're getting the worse of the three, at least statistically in this in Kansas City's defense. So I imagine at the very least early on Cook early and often most likely to see if it works. I mean, because if they can just do what they've done the last couple of weeks, well, that takes a lot of pressure off of Josh Allen the rest of the offense.
And we'll talk more about that in the rushing sites segment, because I agree with you, I do think that's gonna be a very popular side of it. Now when you flip it to the other side and this Kansas City offense taking on a buffer defense. We mentioned the injuries wraps out Benford's questionable at this point.
We know that Milana little banged up there.
We didn't see a lot from this Kansas City offense against Houston, which feels like a broken record at this point. But we didn't have anyone but really Kelsey get going, and yet they were still able to move the ball consistently between the twenties. They struggled in the red zone again, and that's been a big problem for this Kansas City team. Their red zone efficiency going to be absolutely key against this Buffalo Bill's defense because I do think they say have success moving it between the twenties. Also interesting to see what happens at the offensive line as well, Matt. We've seen them shuffle up that offensive line and move around, specifically their guard and their tackle positions. We've seen Tooney moved all over the place. He's been playing left tackle instead of playing left guard. Mike Calando is in there. He can't block anybody. I would this isn't the same package. This isn't Will Anderson Junior and Hunter on the other side. I'm more worried about Ed Oliver trying to come up the middle and pressuring directly up the middle. I am very interested to see if we seen Tony move back into and hopefully's take over the tackle position because of the threat you have from Buffalo's interior pass rush.
Two things from the passing side of things that I'm very interested about. We'll get in depth in that when we're talking kind of the receiving props and even the passing props in this one too. Is we were sitting here on this desk, we were into the fourth quarter before Keon Coleman or Amari Cooper even got a target for Buffalo.
Did they get more involved?
Do they try to figure out ways to get them involved at least a little bit more early and at least give Kansas City something to think about there on that side. And then when Taylor rat being out, do we see Patrick Mahomes maybe take some more shots down field? And I do wonder if that's going to be in the game plan as well. Lots and lots to get into when we get into these games, breaking down every single angle of the props.
When we come.
Back, welcome back to Ready Set bet with Matt Brown and Mike Sammage on FIS in these Sports Betty Network.
Ready to set bet here on beson the Sports Betting Network, Matt Brown and Mike Sommitch back here in Las Vegas getting into these games. Man, I cannot wait for both of these games. I mean it is there's intriguing storylines in both, right, which is you're sitting here with Washington in Philadelphia and going there's really no reason we should even be considering Washington. It's like man for man at every single position except the quarterback position. You're just like, yeah, Philadelphia is better. They're just better. Across the board.
They are they are, And the one, the one great equalizer's turnovers. We saw Washington win the turnover bat battle against the Tampa Ben Stampa Bay. We saw them win the turnover battle against Detroit. They probably need to win the turnover battle by two or three turnovers to be a to beat Philadelphia tomorrow.
I just can't. I'm sitting here trying to figure out. I'm just sitting here trying to figure out, Like what is I mean if we're sitting here really really breaking it down. Yeah, it is going to have to be that Saquon Barkley gets You're not gonna stop him. So what are you eighty or like, no, seventy five yards something like that.
I can make the bull case for Washington really easily. Okay, they run positive variants on fourth down, so they're able to extend drives. You only have six offensive drives for each team because of that. Saquon Barkley goes for one hundred and twenty yards, but Jalen Hurts is really hurt and he continues to stink at throwing the football, and he throws for one hundred and twenty yards, and all of a sudden, you have two hundred and seventy yards total offense for Philly, and the Commanders are able to put in multiple touchdowns because of fourth down conversions. They don't kick field goals, and you get enough stops and you win.
You win a football game that way.
Yeah, there is a route to success here for this, this Washington Commander's team.
I don't.
I think it's a very small window that they have to crawl through, but there is one hundred percent of window that they can cry and get through here.
All right, So let's talk some passing props here for this.
So let's get to these guys' numbers, and we'll start in the early game and we'll we'll start with with Jalen Hurts because I think this one's the more interesting one out of the two. So Jalen Hurts is at a number. See we might have did it happen to have crept up at all? So it has Okay, So people came in. This was yesterday morning. Wow, you could find a market low of one hundred and eighty and a half.
Right, we're a lot higher than that now.
Yeah, so we're sitting here one hundred and eight and a half. Now we're market low one eighty six and a half with a market high one to ninety five and a half right here in this game. So everybody came in and started to realize, Wow, this is extremely low for an NFL quarter, Right, we're talking one hundred and eighty yards.
This is like Jake Hayner numbers.
Mike Well, especially with the breakdown that we just gave on this game, the opportunity is going to be there, Yes, so you're going to have one on one on the outside.
Now.
The Jalen Hurts sack of it all is a big issue for me here because he took seven sacks last week and he's been sacked six times in two games against Washington, he clearly was not moving right because of that knee last week. Are we gonna get that Jalen Hurts who can't move around very much, Because if that's the case, all of a sudden, he's got to get the ball out in two and a half seconds before the rush gets there. He's been terrible at getting the ball out quickly, and he has been extending plays. I guess extending is the right word, because it's really just kind of running around for a little bit then throwing the football away.
Like I'm not sure what we get from him.
At one ninety and a half, which is right now the number one DraftKings kind of like the under He's never thrown for more than one hundred and fifty one yards in a playoff win, yet four of those wins.
Yeah, I mean, you can find one ninety five and a half out there right now. MGM is sitting at one ninety five and a half. The thing that is interesting about this number is that there is a clear path to victory without him having to throw for two hundred.
Yards oh one hundred percent, And that's.
That is like crazy to say, but you do have, again, a very clear path of attack in this game, at least early on, which is your running back who might be the best running back in the entire league, with your offensive line that definitely is one of the best offensive lines in the entire league, against a rush defense that is one of the worst. So, like when you look at the one ninety five and a half, again, we're just talk market high. If we're talking going under here one hundred and ninety six yards, there is a world that exists where they could win this game by ten plus where he only throws for one hundred and thirty oh easily.
Like I said, he hasn't thrown for over one hundred and fifty one in any of the four playoff victories.
If you go back and you just look at.
His game log, he's not throwing for two hundred and ten yards a game specifically recently.
When you look through this, you.
Want this, you want the I mean, this stat is gonna for those of you that knows what this means, like your jaw is gonna draw. So in these two postseason games, three point nine yards per.
Drop back, Yeah, one hundred and twenty point.
Nine yards per drop back for Jalen Hurts in the East and they were two wins, two wins, so that tells you something.
Yeah, he wrote for one hundred and twenty eight yards one hundred and thirty one yards. When you have Barkley getting thirty carries, it really reduces the number of pass plays you have. We saw him throw a twenty one and twenty times so far in these two games, and he's not stretching the field like you said, with that average depth of target. If he throws the ball twenty times again and he throws in an average depth of target of five yards, it's very hard for him to get. You have to almost like five times twenty and it's not a big number.
On the flip side, I will say this, if you're leaning towards the over market low of one eighty six and a half right now, I would also bet alts because that means some of these one on ones are just getting or just getting one.
And it wouldn't surprise me if A. J.
Brown has a seventy yard touchdown and DeVante Smith has another fifty five yard touchdown or whatever, because as we've said, at least early on, there's going to be those opportunities.
Yeah, I'm gonna put my ten foil hat on here. I don't think a J. Browns one hundred percent.
We haven't heard about him being hurt, but if you just watch him, he's not as explosive over the last couple of games as we had seen prior to the pre It seems like there's just issues all the time with AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts.
Right now.
We had the whole book saga that happened two weeks ago. Just it's not clean, it's not Chris Now. I did bet one passing prop Matt and this. I actually got a bad number and then revetted at the better number because I liked it so much. So I mentioned the uniqueness of the markets. Because we're here in the Conference finals. You can get Jaden Daniels head to head passing yards against Jalen Hurts.
Right now.
The market's sitting at thirty four and a half, so you have to lay thirty four and a half yards with Daniels. I happily laid the thirty four and a half yards. I actually laid forty and a half earlier this week. Every scenario in my mind where you have any success for Washington, it's throwing the football. Daniels gets yardage through the air or with his legs on the ground. I think they struggle running the football with their running backs, which means that let's say the Commanders win this game, Daniels had a really good game through the air. Let's say the Commandos lost by fifteen. Daniels is throwing the football the chase, and if they did lose by fifteen, it's probably the Saquon Barkley ran the ball a lot of times. I don't see a world here where Daniels doesn't throw for two hundred and thirty two hundred and forty yards.
And if that's the.
Case, I'm ten yards over the Hurts total that I need him to go under to be able to cast that bat. So I love laying the thirty four and a half yards with Daniel right now.
Market low of two twenty and a half on Jayden Daniels, market high of two twenty five and a half on Jayden Daniels. So, unlike Hurts, in which I would only play the under, I would be on the over on Daniels. I don't have any scenario in which I'm gonna be going over, I mean going under here on him, because again, they've been very well, we'll talk rushing next next segment. They've been very inefficient running the ball, and so I like him on the over. Now, the the late game is fairly interesting because this is where things can go all because the game playing fore the winning teams could be all over the place, right like it.
It can be absolutely crazy.
So for Josh Allen, we've got to market low at two thirty and a half. Oh, it's it's just yeah, So everyone's on the same make at high two thirty one and a half, So everybody is two thirty. He didn't have two thirty one and a half, so there's no big discrepancy here in this one. Could I see a game in which Josh Allen throws for three to thirty, Yes? Could I see a game in which he throws for one to thirty?
Yes.
He is the hardest one for me in this entire of the four quarterbacks, it's he is by far the toughest one for me.
Yeah.
I was looking for first quarter numbers if I could find them. On Alan specifically, we talked about how last week it was cook, cook and more cook, especially early in the game. I think that's going to be a similar game plan against the Chiefs first quarter totals. I think Alan under is a good way to look because you also may not have very many opportunities. These are two teams that, when you even go back and watch the previous playoff games that they faced each other, very good, very good first series for these offenses, which meant that they were seven eight minute drives. I think that's similar to what we're going to see again in this spot. So first quarter unders for Alan I think are at least a little bit interesting.
Over on the other side, Patrick Mahomes a market low of two fifty two and a half a market high of two point fifty six and a half. I think they throw the I think they throw the ball.
I do too.
I think they throw the ball in this game.
I think you're going to see them throw it quite a bit. We mentioned the rap injury, so you're gonna have a rookie starting at safety. I think that makes them more interested in stretching the field. We saw Hopkins play just sixteen snaps against the Texans. I think he has utilized much more in this game. I think Hollywood Brown plays the slot instead of playing outside. I think there's a lot of different things that Kansas city can do to try and attack this Buffalo team and have success and through the air.
The Mahomes number, I know it's high, guys, it's it'd be an over at two fifty two and a half or pass for me. I can't come under because I honestly think they're gonna have some success to the air.
I also think they're going to struggle on the ground.
And Pacheco looks like a shell of himself, and Hunt is not anyone who's going to be able to break big plays. And when you have two running backs who are we'll call them three four yards in a cloud of dust style running backs, it means a lot of your yard is going to have to be through the air if you want to have success. And if they are in a situation where they have to chase Buffalo, that is going to be done mainly through the air as well.
You probably heard we are back on Serious XM channel one fifty eight, So if you're listening to us there right now, then thanks, Hey, appreciate here we are. Yeah, but if you're driving along, didn't know it channel one fifty eight on your Serious XM machine, But hey, you can find us other places as well. You've got YouTube TV where we are, We're on iHeartRadio. We got the fire TV Roku. We've also got that vson Watch app out there as well, so a ton of different ways you can catch in on all of the awesome stuff that we are doing here. But welcome all the new serious XM Channel one fifty eight listeners out there. When we come back, let's talk some rushing props.