Live Bet Sunday | HR 1 | 01.26.25

Published Jan 26, 2025, 8:40 PM

Start your Championship Sunday with Live Bet Sunday! Hosts Ben Wilson and Scott Seidenberg break down the Commanders-Eagles and Bills-Chiefs matchups, sharing key insights to prepare you for the action. With in-depth betting analysis and a special guest appearance from Dan Pizzuta of The 33rd Team, this hour sets the tone for an exciting day of live betting action.

This is Live Bets Sunday on v Sends, the Sports Betting Network.

We welcome you in.

It is the Conference Championship edition of Live bet Sunday.

So fired up. One of the best betting days of the year.

With Scott Sidebergers holding down at our Circuin Sports with studios in downtown Las Vegas. I'm Ben Wilson, Scott. We had a good time yesterday. We reached six and four on the place. We gave out live and pregame, and at the same time that was kind of just the appetizer for today.

How we're feeling, man, one of the best days on the calendar.

Oh, I can't wait.

Something has to get that sour taste of the Kansas defeat out of my mouth from last night. But we did cash several live bets yesterday during the show, so I hope the audience enjoyed that. And it's going to be more of the same today as we lead you up to kick off of the NFC Championship game and take you throughout all the live betting opportunities for the Eagles and the Commanders.

It will be live betting Long Island mercy Hurst right now. No talk of Eagles and commanders today. We'll get you caught up to speed first, because there has been some line movement within the last eight or nine hours or so as we get to game day. However, none of the movement, Scott has been on the side. It's been pretty static, Philadelphia holding strong six point favorites over Washington in the nightcap Chiefs minus two over the Buffalo Bills. However, it has really been the totals that have been moving. There's some concerned over wind, which will likely impact the game in.

The first half.

In the Washington Philadelphia game total here at one point was forty eight. We're all the way down now to pretty much forty six and a half across the board. Scott, couple forty sevens out there, and we can talk more about this as it is. Forty seven a very very key total in NFL betting, and clearly the betters are convinced here that whether it's the weather, whether it's the game state, the potential injury to Jalen hurts a banged up Washington offensive line more than anything, betters here gravitating toward the under in game number one.

Yeah, I think you hit it right on the head there with the win.

We're seeing about thirteen to fifteen mile power wins, maybe early on in the game, but then settling out as we get throughout the night.

It slows down to six miles per hour as.

I go through the Toppler radar effect here doing my best weather man impression.

But for the most part, it's gonna be a clear night.

It's just gonna be cold, and a lot of it could have to do not just with the win bend, but something that we touched upon yesterday game script. We certainly know that the Eagles love to run the football, and that's probably where they're going to initiate. The focus of their offense is being led by Saquon Barkley. The more rushing attempts, the more times that clock kit ticks ticks ticks, and it leads towards an under. I can't get anywhere with the total myself. Personally, I'm fascinated to see the numbers tick down forty six and a half. So maybe it dips even further should we get a pregame report on just how windy it is at the link, But for right now, I think it's fascinating to see where the action's coming in.

At Game one between the two teams back in week eleven. That was a Thursday night in Philadelphia. Total was forty nine. Game one under Game two is Week sixteen in Washington. Remember that was a game where Jalen Hurts got injured in the first quarter. Commanders the crazy comeback. That total was forty seven and went way way over. You know what, I can't believe as far as the movement for today here we were sitting preaching all week. Hey, if you want to bet rushing props, especially Sequon Barkley or any of these stars, you gotta do it early in the weeks. It's only going to go up and up and up. We actually reached a peak yesterday one twenty eight and a half, which is just an insane number on Saquon Barkley, Believe it or not, Scott, We've actually seen the number come down a little bit, even with a thought being that it will be more of a run heavy sort of game. So it's one twenty five and a half. And maybe the betters out there actually looking at the number and thinking at a certain threshold, maybe one twenty eight and a half was a bit too high.

Yeah, certainly, and especially when you look at Sharp Sports, sharp prop betters who might be limited at some of the more wide widely available books like the DraftKings and whatnot, but still getting down what they can. You see a number pop up that is an all time historic high when it comes to a rushing prop, and there really is only one way to bet this, and it is to bet the under. And so the folks coming and the money pouring in betting the under on Saquon Barkley, which has then forced the books to adjust and get it down to where we are now at one twenty five and a half with a little bit of juice on it the over.

Now, I do.

Think that we could see some action going back on the over as we get closer and closer the kickoff. We know that the majority of the public actually bets closer to kickoff as opposed to placing the bets earlier in the day or even earlier in the week, But really only one sided action on the Saquon Barkley prop for right now to as far as a handle is concerned, ben sure thing.

As far as other props that are moving, we'll give our full breakdowns as we get closer to kickoff.

As far as our favorite props over money.

Interestingly enough, on the Jalen Hurts passing yards, I wonder how much of that is the fact that is the week has gone on, there was question marks over his ability to move around, would he be wearing a knee brace, It's all kind of been cloudy here. But his pass yardage, which look, it's been what for the last five games, he's thrown for fewer than two hundred yards.

It was one eighty eight and a half Scott.

Maybe a little surprising for me at least to see betters have enough confidence to bet that thing over. Granted you were getting a discount with the number, but one ninety five and a half that's actually moved up about seven yards, where conversely jayde Daniels was two twenty six and a half at one point this week and actually that's actually come down four yards now down to two twenty five and a half.

Yeah, I think there's a belief that something that we kind of talked about yesterday where I thought maybe that this would be coming more strategy to come into the game and have a more focus on the passing attack. There's been a lot of talk about the disappearing act of aj Brown reading books on the sidelines as opposed.

To catching passes.

Although if you actually dig deeper into the results of what we've seen so far from the Philadelphia Eagles in the playoffs, there was a long pass to aj Brown that was, you know, incomplete at the end zone.

There was a long.

Pass to Dallas Goddard that gets called back due to a penalty. And so the idea that the Eagles are not pushing the ball downfield or really don't want to push down the ball downfield.

Not exactly accurate.

They are taking their opportunities, it just might not show up in the end of the game box score. So I think there is a belief out there that this number is too low and that the Eagles and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore open up the offense a little bit here early on against the Commanders.

And that is correlated as well into AJ Brown. Glad you brought him up. Scott his actual prop number two, because he's gone from sixty five and a half now up to sixty eight and a half, averaging way higher than that. But as we've all watched throughout the playoffs, effectiveness, health, whatever you want to call it, has been a very much diminished expectations from the betters is that that picks up a little bit later today. Really pumped two to have our two guests coming on later in the show, especially to talk some of the analytical breakdown. We'll get Dan Pizuda from the thirty third team, really smart football mind. He joins us in about twenty five minutes to kick off our guest list, and like we had last week on the show, it was a great game when we had him on Scott, so I figure we have to give him on again. Matt Pirno, who always gives us great Buffalo insight, Bill's beat reporter for Syracuse dot com and the Shout Buffalo Football podcast, will join us at two thirty Eastern to talk about game number two tonight. This far, there's that second game, like we were talking about with Washington and Philly, really no movement on the side. It's pretty much painted Chiefs minus two across the board. DraftKings actually the for the most part, the only holdout here. Chief's an expensive minus one and a half. You'd have to lay minus one fifteen juice on that money lines here. Pretty much market White minus won thirty or so on Kansas City.

However, game day money.

There's a belief that like the previous playoff matchup Scott, we are going to get points up to forty nine or forty nine and a half on the total after opening being around forty eight most of the week.

Yeah, looking at a report earlier from MGM that had it said John Ewing had tweeted this out eighty nine percent of the money on the over in this game. So the movement is right there with the amount of money that's being bet on this total being pushed to the over. It's interesting the majority of the money actually on the Buffalo bills to cover this line. So we're seeing maybe some public action on the Kansas City Chiefs, but some sharp movement on the Buffalo Bills, or at least money coming in on the Buffalo bills. And as I mentioned, all the money it appears to be the majority of the money now about ninety percent on the over in this game.

How about that the money coming in not deterred by previous results.

In this Buffalo Kansas City game.

You know what these movements have also done, especially on the totals, They're impacting the first half betting and the first half line movement very significant in Buffalo and Kansas City, where twenty three and a half was your first half total. Just shi have a very first half totals key number of twenty four. Not only are we at twenty four market why, but a couple books, including right behind where you're at Scott, have gone to twenty four and a half, Westgate twenty four and a half, DraftKings twenty.

Four and a half.

Now you have to pay a little tax to take under, but that to be very very significant as far as the betters that are very sharp watching out for this stuff are attuned to because we have tended.

To see these games.

Especially Kansas City, one of the best under teams in the league, played a more slow tempo early. Now will that hold up for sixty minutes? Could we get over time? Of course, But that's very interesting to me here that we crossed not only not only got to the threshold of twenty four, but we actually went over that. We're sitting here twenty four and a half. If you wanted to be brave, jump in there and take a first half under, you are getting a really good number.

Now, yeah, I lean first half under, second half over. That's just the way that I feel this game plays out. Plus obviously you get the overtime possibility when it comes to a second half total. But I do think that the early focus of this game will be a little bit of a feeling out process between both of these teams. We know that the Bills have certainly leaned on the run game, not so much pushing the football down the field, and with Patrick Mahomes over the past several years, as teams have implemented the too high shell coverage, there is not a lot of downfield passing. It is a lot of short passing, whether it's utilizing Travis Kelcey or even Noah Gray and the running backs out of the backfield as well.

Absolutely, and we see how that now impacts more of the props. We'll talk about props deep dive in a little bit before we get into some of the individual game breakdowns. We'll talk offense defense how that matches up for both teams, both sides of the ball in each of the two games. However, it's also one of those weeks Scout or a lot of people especially coming you today, saying all right, how can I tease Conference Championship week?

There's only two games.

I mean, I know you know I've heard that the math wise, there's really none of the options out there. They say, don't tease totals, but it's only two games, So what the hell, let's throw out all the rules. What would you be doing today? I know we probably locked we're probably locked in on the same teaser here, but what's your best advice here for folks saying you know what? I know it might not be mathematically optimal, but it's the conference championship week?

What's a teaser I want to play?

Yeah, and the teaser for me would be the Eagles down to a pick them or should this thing get north of six, certainly at six and a half, which I don't think we're gonna get to a six and a half. But if your only option is the Eagles six and a half, then teasing them down six points to a half is a no brainer. And then compared that with the Buffalo Bills going up from the two to the eighth if the traditional Stanford Wong teaser, which is going through the key numbers of three and seven, so getting the Bills north of those key numbers to a plus eight to me as a no brainer. You mentioned mathematically, that's just what I want to caution people again, is that every time you do a two leg teaser at minus one twenty odds, which is the very best odds you're gonna find on a two legs six point teaser, each leg is minus two eighty and right now you can find cheaper Eagles money line prices than too. Eighty to sixty five is actually the cheapest that I found out there. I have no issue just laying the two to sixty five on the Eagles money line, but if you are so inclined to do a two leg teaser, the only one that I would recommend is Eagles Bills DraftKings.

The shortest price in the marker right now on Philly money line that minus two to sixty five. Scott was alluding to a lot of minus two seventy five, though widely available out there. When we return, we will start the deep dive. Can't wait to get into the nitty gritty with you, Scott. We'll talk Chiefs offense versus Bills defense.

Great matchup on both sides of the ball.

We'll get into it next year on Live that Sunday.

This is Live bet Sunday on v Sends, the Sports Betting Network.

We're just getting started live bet Sunday on a countdown to kickoff.

We're an hour and forty five minutes out.

I'm gonna start a Conference Championship Sunday Eagles and Commanders, and then in the nightcap. Can't wait for Bill's Chiefs as well, Scott, I'm ben we have some great guests coming up. Dan Pezuda joined us in fifteen minutes get a deep dive breakdown on both of these conference championship games from.

An analytic perspective. We started to lay out some of our bets.

We are both riding in Eagles pick them Bills plus eight two team six point teaser. I'm sure we're not the only ones, Scott, I've ventured. I guess there's a few one hundred thousand, maybe million Americans who are on that on that same table.

Do you think so? Yeah, I would think so. And I did. Also I bet an Eagles money line at a reduced price, you know I did.

I was able to grab a two sixty like again, shortest price in the market right now is at DraftKings at two sixty five. And again, like as I say, sometimes people are just afraid of laying juice, Like I get it if it's part of your bank roll management.

I totally understand that.

But for me, from a mathematical standpoint, laying two sixty is better than laying two eighty, and so I went ahead, and then I jumped right in.

So we're going for the birds.

Today, going for the birds. A lot of gumfit there, Scott.

We'll have some injury reports once we get the We still are waiting a couple questionable tax here game time decisions. We'll be getting the official inactives to be made coming out here from the league in about ten to fifteen minutes. We'll let you know as soon as those are out's Cam Jurgens rumored to potentially be out today center for the Eagles.

That is one of the big names for Philly.

And then Sam Cosmi right guard for Washington. Those are the two main ones. A couple other other key pieces we are watching, and we'll let you know as well as we start our deep dive breakdowns though, we'll talk chiefs offense versus Bill's defense and vice versa similar deal, commanders when they've got the ball versus the Eagles d and how that stacks up on the other side of it. It's interesting how the general narrative it always comes when it's a Chiefs playoff game into well, it's Patrick Mahomes. The guy just doesn't lose in the playoffs. He just can't bet against him. At least though for context, we should lay out the fact that this season he's throwing thirty one percent of his passes add or behind the line of scrimmage. That's by far the highest rate of his career, second highest rate of any quarterback in the NFL. And he's had the fewest rate of passes going ten or more yards downfield this year, just twenty six percent. So it's not been an offense that has been geared for the explosive play for Patrick Mahomes. And I can't help but wonder after we saw them really struggle in certain looks against Buffalo in Game one that was a Bills thirty to twenty one win back in Week eleven, how do we see that looking for Mahomes and the Chiefs here when it matters the most, where they've always been able to find the answer. It seems like Travis Kelsey being a big part of that at tight end. But you know, where is the resources going to come? From in a season that just has not been there. From an explosive standpoint on the case.

Side, well, certainly, I think that they'll have players on the field decade take up space, if you will. Hollywood Brown is going to be somebody that the defense is going to have to pay attention to. Xavier Worthy obviously a player that the defense is going to have to pay attention to.

I think what the.

Best strategy for the Chiefs should be is to get the ball into their playmakers' hands in space, whether that means it's a screen passes Xavier Worthy or one of those jet sweep motion pop passes to Worthy. Utilize his speed, get him on the outside, and see if you can make things happen after the catch.

When the Kansas City Chiefs were at their best.

Ben they led the league in the yards after catch category, they were certainly getting the ball in the hands of their playmakers. A lot of it in previous years had to do with Tyreek Hill, but they seem to do pretty fine.

Without him after they let him go.

So I do think they try and get the ball in the hands of their playmakers early and often.

And yeah, you mentioned it.

The fact that Mahomes is throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage at a higher rate. It is a lot of these screen passes. It is a lot of short passes. And something that we've noticed here in the playoffs is we have playoff travel. Is Kelsey now and what we have seen is clearly and I don't know if this is the case, this is just an assumption for me. It feels like Kelsey's been saving himself for the postseason. That we knew in the regular season he was going for certain milestones. Wanted to pass Tony Gonzalez for the all time reception touchdown lead in Chiefs franchise history, wanted to get to the thousand career receptions. But other than that, we have not seen Kelsey be a focal point of this Kansas City Chiefs offense.

We have seen that now in the postseason, and.

It just feels like one of those situations where he knew his body, he knew the grind of the schedule, and now that it's the playoffs, we're seeing vintage Travis Kelcey.

Six and a half on the receptions for Kelsey sixty six and a half. You're paying the tax, but look, it's not one of those things. You can just look at his game loge from the regular season, you know, and say that is automatically applying to the playoffs.

Just not how it works.

And for many of the reasons you just laid out while we're talking. Some of these chiefs chiefs angles when they're on offense and going deep.

That's what we do here at Vson.

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Today.

Matchup, I'm looking forward to watching the most here, Scott. When it's Patrick Mahomes throwing the ball, which we'll see a lot against the Cover too, that Buffalo ran a ton in the first look.

Those the two high safeties.

You're looking to prevent the explosives downfield, really try to drive those short throws into traffic. Buffalo did a good job in Game one, Homes just about five and a half yards per attempt on those throws, also through an interception, And for the season, Mahomes actually had the lowest quarterback rating against Cover two eighty three point two this year, with only five touchdowns to six picks. I do believe it's part of why I felt good about teasing Buffalo up, why I certainly believe that if there's ever a year they can get over the humpets this year, it's not only Josh Allen, but it's how good the defense has at least looked with a healthy Matt Milano back into the lineup. PFF has him fifth out of the fifty one qualified linebackers in the short sample size we have. In postseason play, he's been great in pass coverage, fifth in that pass coverage grade mark as well. So if you're a funneling defense, short over the middle sort of throws a Buffalo wants to make Casey do, and you've got Mulano in he did not play in Week eleven. I have to think that I at least give an edge there and give an opportunity for Buffalo to somewhat neutralize what Casey wants to do in that pass game front. Does it mean they slow down Travis kel See completely? Probably not. But you're not gonna have to completely shut him down just to win the game.

No, not at all.

And it's why I actually look at the prop market and I think Patrick Mahomes completions over is a way to look here, because he's completed a career high eighty four percent of quick passes this season.

We're talking about the short quick passes, and as.

You mentioned, Buffalo is not going to give anything away over the top, so they're going to keep everything in front of you, which is how teams have defended Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and now we're seeing that spread across the entire league.

I think a lot of dink.

And dunks could be in store here for the Kansas City Chiefs, which would lead to a high completion percentage, but not so much yardage. So I actually like Patrick Mahomes to go over his completions as a result, of this. I'm glad you brought up that too high shell safety coverage though, Ben, because if you look at the other side of the football, the Kansas City Chiefs utilize split safety coverage more than twice the league average on plays in which they blitz.

And we know Spags loves to send the house.

Right, the Chiefs are one of the highest blitz rate teams in the NFL. We know how great Josh Allen is against the blitz, so I would say, hey, don't exactly rush, you know Josh Allen because of how good he is against the blitz. But if you look at Josh Allen versus split safety coverage this year, he is the only quarterback qualified quarterback because.

You have to have a certain amount of PAS attempts.

He's the only qualified quarterback in the NFL that did not throw an interception against split safety coverage this year.

Pretty impressive when you think about what the demand is and how that tends to lead to a lot of quarterback mistakes.

Even Mahomes I mean six picks.

Malmes has thrown two picks total his last ten games, but on the year, in those same sorts of coverages, he's actually thrown six of them, and I really like the at that angle, looking at not.

Only the completions. Mahomes is at twenty four and a half.

But if it's me, I'd rather just play receptions if I'm going to play two as opposed right to the yarded So looking at that Kelsey six and a half, Xavier Worthy, it's a heavily juiced four and a half, Hollywood Brown three and a half. DeAndre Hopkins is the one guy because he's more of a deeper shot guy. It's only two and a half, but it's plus money plus one seventeen to go over even a Noah Gray like one and a half. I mean, they use him in a lot of the two tight end sets.

I wouldn't mind that either.

Scott It it seems like that's the way you kind of target this if you are looking to bet the Chiefs props.

So Noah Gray was a very profitable bet for me the entire season because of all the attention on Travis Kelce, we saw Noah Gray become an integral part of this offense. The Chiefs running twelve personnel at one of the highest rates in the entire league, utilizing those two tight end sets more than anybody. And in that case, we look at Noah Gray and two catches. We're not asking to do much here. We're talking about, hey, on a third down, just get that one catch for five yards or whatever it is.

I do like Noah Gray to go over one and a half receptions.

It is the heavy, most heavily juiced prop player there is, at least in the receiving yardage mark or perceptions mark, I should say, for either team. But you know, sometimes the juice is worth the squeeze when you like the.

Matchup like we do on that.

Anything other Chiefs offensive related props you've been looking to target here this week.

Well, you mentioned Xavier Worthy being taxed on the receptions. The reason why I like Xavier Worthy over receptions is because, as I mentioned before, those Jets sweep pop passes are just cheap ways to get a reception where it's actually a running play, but it goes in as a passing play because Mahomes kind of flips it forward. I do think we see at least one of those the Xavier Worthy in this game, a way to get a cheap reception.

Above that where it's yeah, basically the run play.

But that's not how it goes in the box card, no one will know in retrospect. The sportsbook's great as if it were a sixty yard bomb down the field, So a great way to attack for the prop market on the Chiefs.

Offensive side of the ball.

We'll talk Bill's offense versus the Chiefs defense a little bit later in the hour, but up next he's a friend of the network, Dan Pezuta does outstanding work for the thirty third team. Give us his analytic breakdown how he sees both the NFC and AFC Championship game is playing out. We'll also get it inactive report on the NFC side of it coming up the game just a few minutes right here on Live bet Sunday.

Wow, this is Live Best Sunday on v sand the Sports Betty Network.

We're counting you down to kick offf here on Live Bet Sunday Conference Championship Week with the Philadelphia.

Eagles in Washington.

Commander's game number one on the dock, and we've got to be in actives just coming out and pretty big news here Scott as we're getting set to welcome in our first guest of the day, Dan Duda from the thirty third Team. It sounds like no Cam Jurgens. Those are the reports here. He just want to underwent a pregame warm up. The GM Howie Roseman, the O line coach Jeff Stoutland were watching him closely and multipole reports here from at Philadelphia Eagles Central saying that he is out with the with the back injury.

So wrinkle there. How will the Eagles O line adjust?

It has been such a wagon all year to answer that and talk some more angles on the betting side for the NFC and AFC games. We welcome in on our progressive guest line, Dan Pizuda. You can check out his work as well from the thirty third team. He's got a fresh article up right now. And what to expect from the Bears offense next year with new head coach Ben Johnson. Will we will save the Bears talk till the offseason when we're talking, you know, at length every single day on the network about futures and everything, Dan, But great to see how do you expect the Eagles offensive line that's been so good to shift here and adapt in the matchup given that Jurgens is out today.

Yeah, it's super interesting because even with Jurggens in the interior of the Philadelphia offensive line was going to be something I was watching heavily for this game, just because of what happened really last week and what's really happened like since Hertz has come back, where he's been a little slow to process some things in the pocket, especially when some different looks are coming around. So he was pressured on fifty percent of his dropbacks against the Rams. He sacked on forty six point seven percent of those pressures. And I think we saw they were using a lot of the sim pressures, a lot of different looks and blitzes, and the Eagles were a little slow to pick some of those up, and Hurts was very slow to react. This sack on the Hail Mary at the first half was a sim pressure dropping someone off from the left side of the line of scrimmage, having a linebacker come in. It was a similar look for this safety he took. So that communication there, mixed with Hurts, you know, not being as quick to really get the ball out under you know, some of those more like you know, kind of exotic pre snap looks, is going to be interesting. And that's kind of what Washington did against Detroit last week too. They were using a bunch of sim pressures that a forty six point five percent pressure rate. They set to SIM pressure on twenty five percent of the steps. They were also using stunts on about thirty percent of their opposing dropbacks. So the way they're going to be moving some players around to try to create some free rushers, I think with Jurgions in that was going to be something I was watching with Jurions out now, especially with some of the communication that's going to be needed, that's going to be something where I think Hurts is going to need to get the ball out quickly, and if he's not, we could see kind of what happened to Jared Goff last week where his process is sped up a little bit and that starts to get some things at a hand with how some of the things in structure they want to have.

It's very interesting because Jalen Hurts has only taken snaps from Jason Kelcey and Cam Jurgens in his career and now Landon Dickerson will move over to center and it looks like Tyler Steen will get the start at guard. As now it's not just one injury that happens on the offensive line that affects things. It's now a shift of multiple positions. You move Landon Dickerson from guard to center. Now you have to have a backup guard come in and play. So a lot of changes on this offensive line, which has been so great all season for the Philadelphia Eagles. My question is, I wonder if you feel the same way, will we see the same amount of brotherly shoves in this game with the backup center, someone that has not run this play with Jalen Hurts yet.

Yeah, that will definitely be something to washt and that was already something that they didn't do a lot of last week. I think because you're kind of protecting Jalen Hurts a little bit. I don't think he's kind of been the same aggressive type of runner from since he's come back from that concussion. So add in that and a new center, I think that's going to be something that is definitely something to watch. I kind of already liked Hurts under seven and a half rushing attempts just because I don't think he's going to be used quite as much on some of these designed runs because of I think they've been kind of slow playing him with his health. I know they said he's not going to be held back in any way, but kind of from what you've seen from him coming back, it has been a little slower, especially in that run game. And if you take away those you know, brotherly shove attempts, which are rushing attempts, then and I think that could potentially be on the table too. So I think it's going to be interesting because if they don't have that, that is, you know, an automatic you know, third and fourth down thing. So I think they're going to have to be a little more aggressive potentially on first and second down than then would normally.

Yeah, Persuda from the thirty third team joining us on our Progressive Guests line. To note this, it's also Cam Jurgens.

He's technically going to be active, but all the reports here he's not going to play, so he was not on the inactives, but Jurgens. So maybe if it's if it's an emergency, they might be able to throw him in there, but the reports are he will not go. And we already kind of listed how that shift will go on the offensive line before we go to the AFC game. Dan, any other angles you're you're looking at for tonight, either prop wise side or total here in Commanders and Eagles.

Yeah, I think I'm really interested to kind of still go along with this Philly offensive line. Obviously, like Barkley over twenty eight and a half for his longest rush. The last time these two teams played, Washington was actually excellent at stopping the run. They had their second highest rushing success rate of the season. On defense, Barkley individually had his second lowest of the season, yet he still had one hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns because he was able to break off that sixty eight yard touchdown run. So I think with Barkley, it's kind of one of those things where that explosive is going to happen. Ken Washington on the other side of the ball stay close enough where that explosive is not the death blow that it has been so often for Philly. But I think Barkley is going to get that one. It's just kind of when in the game that's going to be and if Washington is able to on offense keep it close enough where they're still in the game when that happens.

We have seen a disappearing act essentially from aj Brown more talk about him reading books on the sideline as opposed to catching passes from Jalen Hurts. Last time that there was a lot of talk about the lack of an Eagles passing game. It was prior to that game against the Pittsburgh Steelers where Kellen Moore just said, I'll show you and Jalen Hurts went out there and threw the ball all over the field. Do we think we could be in for a similar game script here against a Commander's vulnerable pass defense.

I think they could certainly try it. I think we see a couple shots early and if those work out, then I think they keep going to it. And I think it's one of those things where Washington has a cornerback like Marshall Lottimore that they brought in where that could be very hit or this wants to play very physically, so that is going to be something where he's either going to be kind of on top of AJ Brown all the time, or AJ Brown is going to do an AJ Brown thing and kind of be able to run past that physical you know, press off the line of scrimmage, so he could be open quite a few times. And there were, you know, some throwers last week where it probably would have been connected, would have had a nice reception, but it was either dropped or defended. So I think we do see them test that out early in the game to see how that's going to go, how Washington is going to play that, and if that works in the game, I think I do. I see they continue to go through it throughout the rest of the game.

Eagles six point favorites forty six and a half the total against Washington, Buffalo and Kansas City. In the meantime, Dan, this is casey minus two. It's been all over money today up to forty nine and a half.

I see an offshore that that just touched fifty.

Are you inclined to believe in what the betters are clearly believing that this will follow the same path as previous playoff meetings between the two teams, which has been a lot of scoring with the Chiefs getting the better of it late.

See.

I'm really interested to see that because I think these two teams have been two teams where like we look at Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and we've seen them go into hero mode so much, but these two offenses this year have been built on kind of keeping the ball safe, protected, there's a slower pace for everything. Buffalo now has this run game that they've wanted to have for the past couple of years where they don't have to ask Josh Allen to do fifty drop backs a game like he has in some other playoff games.

So I think this is.

A slightly slower paced, safer play. I think we've kind of seen this Bills defense is something that is going to try to stop the big play at any cost. They play that kind of extreme too high shehll And I think this Buffalo offense right now also is an offense that is fine to kind of spread the ball out and not really take those aggressive shots unless they really need to. So I think there also is a early feeling out process here where they're going to be fine kind of you know, unless they're phrase like digging and dunking down the field just to keep the ball out of harm's way, but still have a high success rate on offense, which is kind of what the Bills have been and the Chiefs have been too all season.

One of my favorite prop bets is Josh Allen to go over nine and a half rushing attempts. I think he's going to have to in order for the Bills to be successful in this football game. Now, you can always rely on Neil downs like we did last week. But I do think that if the Bills get the ball inside the five yard line, we've seen it's Josh Allen time.

I mean, how many times does Tony Romo have to say, oh, Jim, it's over here.

It comes a touchdown because Josh Allen is just going to run the ball multiple times inside the five yard line.

Yeah, and they have so many ways to get there that could be a scramble if nothing's open in the dropback game, but they also you know the QB power and some of the QB sweeps that they're throwing out there. I think, yeah, Alan is definitely going to be the biggest threat once they get down to that yard because there's so many different creative ways off that they have to getting him in. And I think there he's the guy they trust the most. And whether that is a pass, he could still be you know, running in. So yeah, I would expect Josh Allen to be using his legs all over the field.

Quite a bit in this game. He is dam pezuita. So kind of give us some time here on Conference Championships. Hondy you fall. I'm at Dan Pizuita.

That's Pizzuta from the thirty third team.

Dan.

Always a pleasure, sur best to Luck on all your plays here on this Conference Championship week.

Yeah, thanks, Gus appreciate it and I enjoy the games.

Luck absolutely will.

We'll talk more on the Bills offense fors Chiefs defense when we come back. Quick reminder before we hit a break, our friends over at sport Trade off in you minus one oh four lines if you're looking to get ten thousand or more down up the best lines in the market, as well as instant in game betting and in dedicating concierge player service. Go to sport Trade today, use code vison and you're in ten percent cash back on every wager during your first week. We'll talk more on the Chiefs bills, some of the bills player props to target when we return.

This is Live bet Sunday on v Sends the Sports Betty Network.

We want to be back suits a live bet Sunday and a big thank you to Dan Pizuda from the thirty thirdeam.

Our first of two.

Guests today, we'll have our guy Matt Perino, Bill's beat writer for syrac news dot Com, to join us in about forty five minutes. We continue the countdown to kick off in about fifteen minutes. We'll tell you that the inactives, who is in, who's out, and also a very weird guy who's being reported out but he's technically not out in the inactive scow. We've got a lot to parties through here with this old Cam Jurgens thing that is sort of dominating the internet right now. As far as the Eagles offensive line, we'll talk about that here. I'm at the top of the arc. It is weird, though, I mean, you know, you never normally see this, like guys either in either his in or he's out, and we've we've got like conflicting information, which is sort of bizarre for a conference championship game.

Yeah, I wonder if because they always said it was going to be a game time decision and we saw him in full uniform warming up, trying to test out that back injury, and then speaking with both the coaches and general manager Howie Roseman, I wonder if the medical staff said, yeah, you're not good to go, and then Cam Jurgen's kind of talked his way into playing in this game. Now I don't know how much he's going to play, but he is officially active.

So the initial report.

Was that he is out, and now they are saying that he is active, but we don't know if he's going to play or not. So I wonder if there is a situation where he kind of talked his way into being active for this game.

Certainly being kept close to the vest there despite some of the reporting that is coming out. We'll dive into that little bit deeper. Tell you the Washington and actives as well. There is a key guy out as well. We'll break down here in fifteen minutes. In the meantime, talking some bills props in the matchup for game number two tonight against the Chiefs is if you were listening to us with Dan pezuitisk guy, you kind of alluded to your favorite prop on the Josh Allen front. It has been a very simple and yet very effective game plan when he is face Kansas City at least thirty two rushing yards in all eight meetings in his career against the Chiefs, and in the last sixties rushed it at least ten times, which is very apt because his Russia attempt prop sitting there at nine and a half. He had twelve carries for fifty five yards in game number.

One, And it's one of those things.

As much as that seems like a very simple thought process, you don't have to be some genius data scientists to figure out very likely Allen's going to run the ball A ton doesn't mean you can't bet it, And that appears to be your strategy for today.

Yeah, exactly.

And we look at what Josh Allen has done in his career in the postseason just alone, like he takes it upon himself to run the football in the postseason, and especially against the Kansas City Chiefs. You mentioned the matchups against Kansas City in his career. It's been what eight games he's played. In six of those eight games, he's gone over the nine and a half rushing attempts. Two of the three postseason games he's gone over the nine and a half attempts. And this is what the Bills need in order for them to be successful in this game. I do think that there was going to be a limited amount of both kicks up, punts and field goals in this matchup because I think that when it comes down to these third and fourth and short situations. Knowing how effective Josh Allen is with his legs, the Bills are going to be more apt to going for it. And when they go for it, it is running the football, whether it is a quarterback sneak, a toush push, or just Josh Allen on a read option. And then anytime they get within the five yard line, as we saw last week when he vultured touchdowns away from James Cook and scored twice, Josh Allen.

Does keep the football in his hands.

I think there are a multitude of ways that you can eclipse this nine and a half, and should the Bills come away with the victory, you could get a kneel down or two at some point, maybe.

Even a kneel down at the end of the first half. Who knows, But there are so many ways where Josh Allen can get ten rushing attempts.

Just make sure is our disclaimer has always make sure you shot around for this stuff. Like at DraftKings. He's now up to ten and a half on the rush attempts. Oh boy, I mean higher you get I mean I bet it's seven and a half.

In the wildcard round. I mean, that's just the way things are trending.

Up and up and up. Is the kid higher here. But make sure you're shopping around for a book. There are still a number of books that are offering nine and a half. You will have to pay a little bit of overjuice. But DraftKings now ten and a half, and that is a plus money to the over. You know, it's like the old high jump analogy, Scott. It's like when they keep raising the bar, you're having to get more precise with that.

So that's just the word to the wise.

So three of twelve playoff games he had eleven or more carries. There was the game against Indianapolis in his second playoff game back in two Back in twenty twenty one, he had eleven carries for fifty four yards, eleven carries for sixty eight yards when he played the Kansas City Chiefs in twenty twenty two, and twelve carries for seventy two yards in a game against the Chiefs back last postseason.

You gotta think as far as the defensive matchup, and I can't wait to watch what Steve Spagnolo, who's just the defensive genius, ends up showing actually on the field when this game starts. But you know, if you're Kansas City, you don't want to let Josh Allen be in positions to run.

He loves running, especially against man.

Coverage, and it's a result of As a result of that, Kansas City played a lot of zone against him.

In that first meeting.

Seventy two and a half percent of their other coverage snaps were played in zone.

That was their fifth highest rate of the season.

And Josh Allen did struggle at least passing in those situations less than five and a half yards per attempt, did throw a pick, got picked on his zone blitz in that game. You would have to think Scott more of the same coming. But how Spags kind of throws in the wrinkles, I don't think will be just as straightforward as the Houston game, where it was very much passive early, very much aggressively. Gotta think there's gonna be some aggression early on in this game. And how Allen in this Bills offense, whether that to me is the is the true key for if Buffalo is able to get over the hump and win the game.

Yeah, it's easy to say third down money down right, and that's where Spags is going to send the pressure on Josh Allen. But I think it's gonna be different in this game. I think pressure will come early because you want to keep Josh Allen out of the third and manageable situations. As I mentioned, when they get down into third and manageable, it essentially becomes four down territory for the Buffalo Bills, knowing how how much Josh Allen can utilize his legs on a third and short, and it's not just about the third down play At times it sets up a fourth down play. So if you are in a third and five situation or a third and sixth situation, sometimes the goal is just to get four or five yards to put yourself into that fourth and one, fourth and two range so that you can go for it on fourth down, whether it is a quarterback.

Sneak or not.

So I think getting the Bills into third and long situations is going to be the best strategy to avoid having Josh Allen beat them in this game hundred percent.

And as that now relates into the prompt market, it's a little murkier, i'd say, Scott compared to say like the Chiefs or you kind of have, you sort of know who your guys are on certain areas of the field, and a lot of that is dictated by Travis Kelce.

But because of some.

Of the ineffectiveness from Amari Cooper, who's perhaps only one and a half catches, there's been a lot of different guys and it makes it a little bit tougher. I'd say for betters to have a lot of conviction in who their back game. Khalil Shakir is the highest guy on the odds board five and a half on their options, but plus money to go over on that.

It's one where I stayed away from on that market. This week's got anywhere you targeted on the reception specifically for the Bills.

Well, shak here's the guy.

I mean, that's Josh Allen's number one target, Like he's going to be the player that gets targeted, gets probably the bulk of the target share for the Buffalo Bills in this matchup. I think that we could see the emergence and I don't want to call it emergents, because we know about these guys all season long, we know about them their entire careers. But the Bills tight ends, you know, so much has been made about, oh, where has Dalton Kincaid been, where's Dawson Knox. Maybe we see a re emergence of the tight end game for the Buffalo Bills here.

Yeah, it's a little bit of that blind faith because it has not totally been there. But this would be the matchup where, given how the coverages are likely to be for Kansas City, Allen is going to have to rely on the tight ends three and a half on the receptions for Kinkaid plus money if you bet that over one and a half for Knocks at the minus twenty three to the over on that. I was also think because you know, we're both not a leading Buffalo, but as we've talked about, we're not trying to be heroes. We're not trying to lay a giant bet on the Bills. We have him, ye know, conservatively we've got him in the teaser up to plus eight. However, there's another interesting wrinkle here, Scott, and it relates to Super Bowl props that you're already out if you have, you know, any sort of conviction on these teams, and we can talk to this in the same way with Philadelphia, isn't it kind of in your best interest and not a big beat by any means, But throw a sprinkle, whether it's Super Bowl MVP, whether it is Super Bowl anytime touchdown, you can get some awesome odds right now on some of these guys like Allen three to one anytime touchdown in the Super Bowl, which would be minus money if they win the game to make it.

I find that.

Market really fascinating as far as to target some of those and maybe playoff some of your convictions this round into next round.

Yeah, that would be a fun way to look at it. Or even in the super Bowl MVP market, now we know it's going to be a quarterback award. I think the only non quarterback that has a chance to win the Super Bowl MVP is Saquon Barkley because of just how much they utilize him. So Saquon Barkley would be an MVP that I would look at. If you like the Philadelphia goals. We know the potential matchups, We have those odds already. DraftKings has released the odds of potential Super Bowl matchups. The Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs would both be one and a half point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles. And the Bills and Chiefs would both be four and a half point favorites over the Washington Commanders. So if you like one of these teams to win in this week, whether it's the Bills or the Chiefs, knowing that they'll be favored in the matchup in the Super Bowl against either the Eagles or the Commanders, there might be some ways to attack the prop markets when it comes to the Super Bowl. A Josh Allen anytime touchdown, as you mentioned, a Josh Allen super Bowl MVP, things like that, knowing that should those teams advanced, no matter what they're gonna be, they're gonna be favored.

That's essentially the two leg parlay, especially if you're doing the anytime touchdown and we have the data, you can see pretty easily, Okay, what is in anytime touchdown? Correlate that with the money line spread of the game today, I say Kwon Barkley, I'd say it would be the other popular one. You know, he's over two dollars anytime touchdown. He's plus one zero five right now for Super Bowl anytime touchdown. So that also might be kind of the the Eagles.

Got to the super Bowl is going to be minus three hundred so exactly.

So it's like, you know, the mechanical parlay there. You know, I'd rather just take take the flyer on that as opposed to be like I think a lot of people are either laying the juice or they're trying to parlay the Barkley anytime with something else. It's always a dangerous game once you start then having to add in another outcome to hit just for you to win your bet that you feel good about out there with the Saquon Barkley. But it's all a long way of saying there's a lot of different options to bet. It's not only for this week, but if you want to start looking at some of the Super Bowl props, great ways to do so. And we've got a lot still to talk about. Is we'll start our focus into the game that kicks off in just over an hour from the link when we return some inactives and a key offensive line piece not only potentially up for Philadelphia but also for Washington will break it down on the other side,

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