Follow The Money | Hour 2 | January 24, 2025

Published Jan 24, 2025, 11:42 PM

In this hour of Follow The Money, hosts Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard are joined by Chris Macero, 2024 CCFI Champion and Professional Bettor, to talk about the NFL Conference Championship Games plus his best bets for the Pegasus World Cup.

They always to follow the money. That's why always say you always follow.

Yeah, yeah, this is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and Polly Howard on Vson.

Welcome in.

We are live in downtown Las Vegas from the Circa Resort and Casino.

We closed up last hour.

We're talking about this improbable run by the Commanders two hundred and fifty to one in the preseason to win the Super Bowl. They would tie the nineteen ninety nine Rams as the longest shot to cash a ticket like that going all the way back the Patriots and oh one are producer looked sixty to one at some spots. Their win total was six and a half when they got it done in two thousand and one. So not a lot of people were high on the Commanders.

I know this.

Our next guest certainly was pro better. Chris Massarro joins the program now and he is on the progressive guest line. Chris, thanks for the time this afternoon. You and I were going back and forth on the Commanders a lot in July and August. Can you explain why you were so high on this team, why you liked him so much in the preseason?

Yeah? How you guys?

You and today feels like just yesterday. I was sitting in the studio before the first week of the season. It's amazing how fast the season goes by. But yeah, going back, going back on it, I looked and it was it was a crazy year. The year before for Washington, they had such a distinct ability to screw things up. They had six kickoffs or punts returned against them. It was just all sorts of nonsense and just harbor on defense, harble on offense.

And I just thought a clean slate was.

What they needed, and to get Dan Quinn, who's who's a miracle, Tom Brady comeback and the Super Bowl away from being a Super Bowl championship coach. And looked at their coaching staff and some of the things that caught my attention were they had some x NFL coaches. Now, obviously no one's that high on Anthony Lynn, but he was an.

X NFL head coach. He's a running back coach. Coordinator. They have Larry.

Izzo, who's a special teams coordinator caught my attention because they were so bad.

On special teams.

And Cliff Kingsbury, high profile offensive playmaking coordinator who was also a head coach. They brought Joe Witt over from Dallas. There was a lot of strong coaching people, plus the wide receiver dB and linebacker coach for all impact players Bobby Ingram, William Gay, Ken Norton, and Ryan Carrigan. It was a solid coaching staff, and I really liked what Daniels was doing at LSU, and I didn't this. This is news to me this week with all this virtual reality training. I'm hearing about how he's running the playbook at one point seventy five and watching film at one point seventy five with virtual reality.

This kid is calm composed.

I've never seen anyone so young, going back to maybe Tom Brady, who was that composed, and that was in his second year.

So I just thought. I thought the things were coming alive.

And I really didn't like Dallas at all, and obviously the Giants were going to be rebuilding. And that's why I played a bunch of exact I did well exactly. This is a division silly in Washington, Washington, Philly goes one. I had over Washington. The win total I have Quinn Coach of the Year outside shot. I think you have this as well, Mitch. He was Rookie of the Year, so hopefully we get that.

And what I did.

I didn't bet it before the season, but midway through September, I just said, you know what, I'm taking a shot on this team, and I have a thousand dollars wager on Washington for NFC, which gets back forty one thousand. Hopefully we can get that in DraftKings Is offered me about ten thousand, but I'm not going to take it. I'm going to go a little bit different route, try to hedge be able to maybe recoup the ten thousand, but still have a shot at the big money.

Okay, how do you plan on doing that? By the way, because I like that.

You can do it.

You can do it a couple different ways.

You can just take some you can take some.

Money line of Philadelphia, which I have. But that's you know, I got it right at the beginning when it came out minus two thirty. That's up a little bit higher now. I played some parlays the week before because the two teams I don't have at all, well, Philly and Kansas City. More because I'm stubborn and I do not like Philly in Kansas City, not because I'm an intelligent person because Philly in Kansas City seemed to always be there. And like you said, you're going to be w can your dog if that's what we have for the super Bowl. But I did play some plays Philly Kansas City both to make the super Bowl. And I'm using teams as anchors that I really feel strong in future polays like Oklahoma City for the West, Duke and Auburn for college basketball. Fortunately for me, after the Rams Buffalo game when Josh Allen stormed all the way back didn't get to win, I said to myself, I think this is the year for Josh Allen. The man is possessed. Next week they beat Detroit. But the week before I put some Super Bowl bets in on Buffalo, also to Okasee at two plus two to twenty five for the West, which is great value. Now is there about even money with six to eight college basketball teams that I like based on my metrics for college basketball that should be there for the finals or Final four area, which are Houston, Marquette, Duke, Auburn, Tennessee, Ohio, Iowa State, Illinois.

So there's different ways to do it. You can spend a little bit of money.

If you end up losing and not getting the big payday with Washington, You're gonna have a lot of options going forward for college basketball, the NBA, certain things.

I have a great.

Ticket that I did two months ago because I didn't have Philly at all, and I put in a ticket one of the bets are had already won. It goes with Philly for NFC, and I have it with Duke, which pays well over five figures. So worst case scenario, I'm gonna have massive tickets on Duke for the final for the championship. You know, I'm hoping Washington gets the victory for me. I have other tickets with Washington to the college basketball teams as well. You know, you gotta spend a lot of time with it. You gotta put the time in, you gotta work the numbers. You gotta make sure you're not over betting certain things because then you devalue the factor, the factors and the pollay. So I'm pretty confident that I have it mapped out well. I'm obviously rooting for Washington to get the job done because that's just easy to get the money right away.

You also only a four and a half point dog in the super Bowl if you win too.

Yeah, like I was mentioning off here, I'm comfortable throwing these other hedges on Philly because if they do win, I have one hundred.

Dollars ticket, which I should have. I wish I did more. I can't believe only been one hundred dollars. That's sixty to one for them to win the.

Super Bowl, and hopefully I'm hoping that Buffalo gets there because then I would have Buffalo Washington where I couldn't lose because I have plays both ways. I'd already cash the Washington bet. So that's another way to do it. If you have more than one team, you can do at DraftKings, you can do crazy things where you can do alternative line pilays where I have Philadelphia plus four and a half Kansas City plus four and a half, and I was all week long playing money lines and college basketball big ones like minus a thousand to get that down to even. Like on Tuesday night, I had an Iowa State Alabama money line polay with Kansas City plus four and a half with Philly plus four and a half had even money.

So now I'm.

Rooting for Hey, Washington and Buffalo win by four or less. I still hit that Probaly, plus I get my teams moving forward in the future.

You do spend a lot of time at this.

Yeah.

Remember I said, I tell you that picture last week when I was out there, like, oh, I'm working on these pilots, you gave a gas.

I was like, you.

Gotta do it because you can spend a little bit of money to cover yourself when you have huge leverage. This is a huge leverage ticket forty to one. I mean, you can't let that go to waste if it does lose. You want to be able to be like regrouping it and having all sorts of stuff for the future that might even pay more.

You know, if I.

Get that pilay with Kansas City and Philly, you know, to win and I go to Auburn or Duke my Arburn and Duke is going to pay more than forty one thousand. Because I have it so many different times, so many different ways.

What's your biggest concern four straight road games? Barkley could go crazy? What is it Sunday?

I'm definitely more concerned about Brockby going crazy.

I mean, you could see Detroit if they just ran.

I feel like, if Detroit had just run the ball every single play last week, they probably would have won the game. I think you're right, but Washington is also trying to take the air out of the ball a little bit. Granted they had it, they didn't have to because they had some big turnovers and they had some short fields. But the way they did against Tampa, they just crimbed it. They go for a fourth down a lot. They don't have the big explosive plays, but once in a while they can hit you with it. I'm more worried about Bokley, but I think Quinn's gonna sell out to stop the run because I think they know Hertz is not one hundred percent. How could you be after you got rolled up like that. So even though they said he practiced full yesterday and today, I'm a little concerned about his health.

It's followed the Money here on VS and D Sports Betting Network, the first network ever dedicated to sports betting. By the way, our guest is Professional Sports Better Christmas Eerro. He is on the Progressive guest line. All right, so there you've covered the bases now with the commanders. I love your vision. I love how you you know crack down the lines, break them all down and try to see what's gonna happen in the future. You're also a big horse player, and it's a huge weekend right with the Pegasus coming up. Uh, can can you give us maybe a pony or two that you like this weekend?

Chris? Yeah, We'll just go for the big race of the Pegasus Cup, the World Cup.

It's a nine prolong race. It's the last race on Saturday at Gulf.

Stream, and I'm gonna go with the eleven horse locked. It's trained by Tod Todd plays or Johnny v is gonna ride.

This horse was sided by gun Runner, so the daddy had already already.

Won the Pegasus actually won it on my birthday twenty eighteen. That's January twenty seventh. I can't believe that's seven years ago. The gun Runner one. But gun Runners five to two, so it's not like giving it going out on the limb. But there's a lot of speed in this race, and the ten skid be Longstockings is going to ensure a hot pace. So the one, three, and ten are going to go out. You're going to have the two and.

Four white a barrio, the.

Four and two Saudi Crown stalking and I like the eleven as a closer.

There's gonna be a lot of speed.

Johnny v and Pletcher love to win at Gulf Stream, So I'm gonna be playing the eleven to win some exacts with the eleven and the two and exactors with the eleven in the four and one long shot, a big closer croupie the number five could be coming from way far back, might be able to get into like a trifector, or maybe even get the exact if the pace is a real meltdown type of thing. So a lot of speed two and four stock in eleven hoping to pick up the pieces in the lane. So I'm going with the eleven horse lock Todd, Pletcher and Johnny Alaska.

Right, very good.

I was told today, by the way quickly here, I was told to keep an eye on Barns in the future market for the Kentucky Derby.

Do you know anything about that horse?

Yeah, it's Stafford's newest young one. He is doing. The thing is tough in the Santa neither A West Coast races and are running against much.

Yeah, he looks very very impressive.

He's winning by a lot named after his assistant trainer, Jimmy Bond.

So obviously when you give a name.

Like that to you, you you got your right hand man. You want this one to be a really solid one. So I think the value in the future market's kind of gone on Bond, so I would kind of pass on a bet on the future bet, but obviously one to look out for for the Derby.

You're the man. Awesome job with the commanders. We hope it gets there for you.

Okay, all right, thanks a lot, guys, talk to you soon.

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That was Professional Sports Better Christmas Arra with us here on the progressive guest line, and he knows what he's talking about by the way he has h He showed me photos of like his notebooks and stuff like that. My comparison always goes back to Kevin Spacey's notebooks in the movie seven Total Psychopath.

It is.

It's nuts anyway, some more props coming up next and an angle that is seventy two percent this weekend.

This is follow the money on visa.

Yeah.

So if we're gonna have good weather in Kansas City for this time of year on Sunday, Chiefs bills total forty seven and a half, you think we're gonna get points, even though, like this Chiefs offense is not exactly trustworthy at this point.

I have a great defense though, and I could I could see maybe some long drives that end in field goals. I can't. I can't say it's going to be a high scoring game.

I'll give you this.

Yeah.

And the reason why we point this out every week throughout the year and specifically in the postseason Steve Mackinin's numbers Vson dot Com I tweeted out every week at Mitch Moss Radio. Matchups pitting a one seed versus a two seed championship Sunday. Over the total thirteen to five and one since two thousand and two, that's seventy two point two percent forty seven and a half. Hovering around key numbers, forty seven is a key number, forty eight is a key number. Forty nine is kind of a key number. Can they get to forty eight plus points in the game?

I don't see it. And also I want to see if Buffalo can run the ball. I surprised Cook didn't do anything in the first meeting. And then is it more Alan keeping plays alive on third down? And if he's doing something, I mean, I would think it'd be through the air that they're going to do and with the tight ends. But Shakir should have a big game, Ken Kate should have a big game. And then it comes down to the other guys, much like Kansas City Coleman, Cooper, Worthy, Hopkins Brown, Are these guys Gray, are they going to do anything? Is someone going to step up and have a big game here with some of these big names and these other players that could be an unsung hero here other than your typical Kelsey and maybe Shakiro, that someone can do.

Something Okay, So, Josh Allen, what do you make of his rushing yards prop in this game? It's high, it's in the mid to upper forties, as we would expect in the postseason. He has played the Chiefs three times in the playoffs. He has rushed the ball for two hundred and twenty eight yards in those three games. I mean, it's been like very efficient for him running the ball. Seven carries at a twelve point six yards per clip in one game, eleven carries averaging six point two in another, twelve carries averaging six yards in another game, scoring two touchdowns in that same contest. Is he going to just turn into Superman? You asked the question early? Does he have to be Superman in this game to win? I don't think he has to, because I think the defense is good enough to like maybe slow down the Chiefs offense, which doesn't do anything anyway.

That's doable. Yeah, I don't think that that shouldn't be a problem, especially if they're going to blitz and if they can't get home. He could also take off and run and maybe get twenty five yards on one scramble alone. Sure, Like I like mahomes over twenty five and a half. I don't want Hurts over. No, we're thirty nine and a half and Daniels is fifty four and a half. Daniels is also plus a dollar thirty to throw a pick. Hurts is a dollar ten. Mahomes is a dollar ten. They haven't turned it over in eight games, and Allen's a dollar fifteen with the yes, no int.

And again Mahomes in three playoff games against Buffalo seventy five point two percent completion percentage, three hundred and six yards per game, eight point seven yards per attempt, eight touchdowns, zero i iNTS. His last seven games this year twelve touchdowns, no iNTS, and in the postseason forty two to eight touchdown to int ratio sixteen and three record overall plus they are ten and zero at home on the season. Home teams are seventeen and five over the last eleven seasons, thirteen to nine ATS championship Sunday here.

Who takes care of the ball, and the incredible stat Buffalo plus twenty four in the turnover differential, Yet Casey hasn't given it away. The other thing is the luck factor. Can Buffalo get a break? Can there'd be a special teams play? I mean you haven't won a road playoff game since the early nineties, and and Mahomes is three and oh straight up in ats against them at home in the playoffs. But going back to the luck factor, likely's toenail out of bounds Week one could have lost. Bengals should have beat him, the penalty that went against them, Atlanta should have won. Sunday Night horrible, the no call, the holding in the end zone, block field goal against the Broncos. Denver should have won, last second field goal against Carolina Raiders, box snap should have beat him. Dicker the horrible kickoff as well that led to the game winner for Kansas City. So at some point you're thinking, is they're luckying to run out between the officiating and all these close calls. Yes, you're sixteen to one and everyone plays, but I mean, come on, and last week it wasn't the Turnholves. It was just an egregious, just bizarre box score where Houston was great on third down outgaining by more than one hundred yards, and they lost the game, and they had the big kickoff return to start, and of course they recovered their own fumble with the luck factor with Kansas City, So.

I don't think the Chiefs are going to be able to run the ball very well in this game. Maybe Mahomes does unscrambles, but like the combination of Pacheco and Hunt.

Yeah, but Checko didn't do anything last week either. He didn't look like himself. And then, so what's realistic for Hunt forty yards?

Maybe?

Maybe I know?

Yeah, And then it also ties in here. The Bills are eighth in rushing EPA since Week ten. They were fifth before last week against Arreic Henry and Lamar Jackson, and since week ten now we're talking about the last half of the season. This is from Zach cohenonviisen dot com. The Bills are twenty third in dropback EPA and twenty six then dropbacks success rate against Mahomes has only averaged twenty four point in completions per playoff game in his career, and that number is twenty four and a half. He's making a case for him to go over his completions in this spot and in the story that I'm reading from. So Bill's really good against running attacks until last week against Baltimore and Mahomes in the postseason has been dynamite obviously at going over numbers like this, and the Bills are not great at advanced metrics per dropback. That's why I think again, there is an angle here where you might have a big number cashing on most receiving yards.

In the game.

Yep, the Bills don't pick up a lot of chunk plays. And there was a story in the offseason where McDermott talked to Scotti Scheffler's caddie and they got in the conversation about hitting singles rather than going for the long home runs. And McDermott relayed that message to Josh Allen and he loved it. And that's kind of been how they've operated this year. And we saw it last week again, like they didn't do anything in the aerial attack against Baltimore. So under that consideration, you would think that maybe Shakier is going to have like seven eight catches, but that might be for sixty yards and.

The Chiefs are really bad against tight end.

So that opens up a spot for Kincaid or Knox or even somebody else on the Chiefs team. If the Bills, like Bracket Kelsey, don't allow him to beat them, maybe that's like a Noah Great type or a third receiver from the Chiefs somehow that leads the game in overall receiving yards.

All right, hit me with this charge mentioned this and you're on it as well. Twenty one percent of targets against the Bills go to running backs. How about the propy like for the best bet?

Well, I got several of them, but we'll go with how about p Ryan two plus catches plus one forty five? Right, everything that we just talked about here, and the Buffalo Bills allow forty four yards per game in the air to opposing running backs. That led the entire league. That was the most allowed by a team per game throughout the entire years. That was like their biggest weakness overall. And p Ryan is the guy that they use almost exclusively in long distance or passing situations. Although we did not ever catch last week. I'm going back to the well again this week, and I'm going to about one and a half over at plus, I believe is the number that's available right now.

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So we brought up earlier in the show, you know, kicking around the idea of like what is the commander's neutralizing Saquon Barkley, Like, what does that even mean? His rushing yards prop is one hundred and thirty and a half, and he beat that number both times he played him.

He went crazy.

He had basically one hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns of both games this year.

It's a good question because commanders say we have to contain them, Well, what's contained ninety one ten?

Right?

So with that in mind, Washington also overall on the year twenty second in DV Away against wide receiver number one, seventy five yards per game to the position, twenty fifth against wide receiver number two, allowing fifty yards per game to the position, and they are twenty six against wide receiver number three thirty six yards per game to the position. Can Hurts get Brown the ball? Can he get DeVante Smith the ball?

An you better? Yeah? I don't think that should be a problems. Can Brown catch the ball? I mean, it was a beautiful throw in the snow that would have put him up ten on that drive before halftime. Yeah, but it should be there. Between Goddard, Smith and Brown, those guys should be able to get forty fifty yards, all three of them.

We are talking about some of the best weapons that any team has in the entire league.

Right.

The Brown Smith combo receiver is elite. You throw and god it very very strong on top of it, and this Commander secondary it just has not been strong the entire year. And they allowed more than five hundred yards of the lines last week, the five turnovers did in Detroit and you know, seventy four injuries on defense.

Again, Yeah, it was easy going up and down the field and certainly on the ground, but then the silly interceptions and the fumble I see. I think it's a completely different game. If they're gonna go up fourteen to three, I know, the third and one play, I mean they're gonna score again. That's going to be fourteen to three, and then the building's up for grabs and then but you know, then it got away from Golf had the two horrible interceptions.

I think the path is there for that game to go over Eagles and Commanders. I think the Commanders are gonna be able to score too. I don't think they slow down the Eagles. If it doesn't happen this year, then it's never going to happen.

Is that real? Or fo gaizy up next? Here on becon, this.

Is the money on SI.

Bitch Moss and Paul Howard are here to make you have a friend of ours.

That would be a little made guy.

Investigating what is and isn't legit fugazy all right, seeing through the lines to make you a better better.

I know you know, and I know you know.

I know the fdm Army is being sent for an odd thing.

You get sent for, you're going alive and you'll come out then and it's your best friend.

That these two wise guys would never steer you wrong.

I forget about it.

This is real or fugazy unfollowed the money.

The originators of this bit bringing it back today before Championship Sunday. If the Bills don't beat the Chiefs this year, PAULI, it's never going to happen.

Is that real? Or fugazy?

Its too strong foo Gazy. I still think there's plenty of time for Allen and he's been close. It's funny you ask it that way, because I would say I feel that way about Lamar Jackson. I I just don't think it's gonna happen. Really, Yes, every playoff game mistakes, they come in so many wins. Watch out for this offense or turnovers? What turnovers blow it? I'm more concerned about Jackson than I am Alan, even though the history with Buffalo. But I still think Allan has plenty of time and this was a big season for Allen, like you talked about, with no digs, no drama. Let's hit the singles and he MVP can what happens.

When the Chiefs regain their offensive sweger?

What do you mean when who knows?

Next year? A year after?

Yeah, maybe Mahomes takes a step back at some point.

I don't know, are we seeing the now?

Could be that could be too right, Kelsey's gonna retire. Maybe these other guys don't work out, but who maybe with Rice and Worthy and all these guys, the future is gonna continue to be bright. And you got there with How long is Andy Reid gonna coach? I don't know. Pete Carroll seventy three got hired today, I don't know. Maybe Andy does this for a long time too, but that I know, all.

Right, The single most important matchup in this game is Josh Allen versus Steve Spigdoe.

Is that reeler for Geezy.

We're talking about, I mean Mount Rushmore of defensive coordinators history.

Of the game.

Yeah, more specifically probably against Brady, right, because come down to the coordinators, can Brady dial something up to get these guys open?

And it's also gonna be like Brady Air? Yeah, like how much is Brady gonna take off?

Brady?

How much is Alan gonna take off in this game?

I'll say that's real. And plus you know what he's gonna do. I mean, look what he did last week against you? What he ate straight plays he blitzed. It was incredible, right and Shroud had no answer and the offensive line had no answer. You see slow it got fired today.

Good how about that move? Deserved it?

Yeah?

Wow?

Remember he was like the talk of the town last year. Yeah, right gone, and it was garbage this season.

So okay, I'll say that's real and there'll be a good chess match between the two.

I will say it is crazy the way it feels when you're watching a Chiefs game. Spags knows when to hit all the buttons, doesn't he. Yeah, when you're talking about that, when he decided, okay, now we're gonna start to bring the.

Heat, and when they need a sack, they get it, I know, knock him out of field goal range, third down, get a stop.

Buffalo wins the game if they contain Travis Kelcey Real or Fugazy.

Fu Gayzy. I think there's a lot more to it than that. Okay, number one, it starts, so can you play clean football? Number two. I could see a game where he only has forty yards and they still lose. You know that's because they still have so many weapons, although they didn't show it last week. But I'm not going to fall over if Hollywood Brown has seventy yards, if Hopkins has forty yards in a touchdown, No, no, I'm not. But that's just they can play complimentary football and mix it in and get everyone involved. And who knows, maybe Hunt has a big run too. But I think there's a lot to it more than just contain him, and I think it starts up front. Can you protect him? And also do you do you play clean football? Same thing for Mahomes. That's why they lost the first game. He turned it over twice.

I think the Texans would have won the game last week had they contained Kelsey.

Yeah, that's true.

Nobody else did anything right.

Yeah, but I don't think it's going to be that type of game though.

Okay, the Mahomes read combo pushes past Montana and Walsh and Bradshaw and Noel for the second best combo ever with another title, real or fugazy Walsh Montana won three together, yeah, Noel Bradshaw won four together.

Yeah.

But it's also seven straight AFC title games.

Correct.

That's the other thing. We'll never see this again. Who's going to do this again? And Goodell's parody and look what Washington's doing yet this organization's done it seven years in a row, and the two losses were in overtime.

Who's to say that it doesn't go to nine, ten, eleven.

That could Yeah, yeah, right, So we're gonna have to say that's real.

We're gonna go from the Patriots run for twenty years into this now with like no break in between. So, okay, what you just said, Jane Daniels in Washington will turn into the next Mahomes in Kansas City over the next five to ten years.

Real or foo gaze?

Oh that's too strong for gazy. Yeah, I mean the pieces are in place. It looks good you come in. But we saw the same thing with Houston, right that Stroud regressed and they had issues. Yeah, that shouldn't have happened. But certainly all the pieces are there. But you still have to worry about Philly being a force for years and then certainly what's gonna happen in Detroit. Green Bay has a young team and if Johnson can figure it out in Chicago too, but they get a lot of help though windows probably shut for the forty nine ers. Stafford might retire, you lose Ben Johnson. Now, I mean the pieces are falling apart in the NFC.

What if JJ McCarthy's good, I'd say the Vikings are gonna have a nice run for the next five years minimum.

Yeah.

Yeah, Pete Carroll will finish his contract with the Raiders and coach four years. He'll be seventy seven years old.

Gazy, that's teetering unreal.

I think so, because this is the more I think about it, I think this is exactly what the Raiders kind of needed, right, because if you go back since their Super Bowl appearance, it's just a total clown show.

Callahan, Turner, Artshell, Lane Kiffin, Cable, Hugh Jackson, Allen Sperano, Gruden, Bisaccia, McDaniels, Pierce.

Think about that list.

Now you got a guy who's won at Super Bowl and a college title.

Sure, so I'm actually glad they went this path and then to give this guy, you know, three or four years, I think he'll probably make it to the end of it.

Well, this is second option pretty good. I mean, if you want to bet Johnson couldn't get him and get Carrol, not bad.

Sure, again, trying to like settle for the next what you think might be a and coming guy beyond like and Ben Johnson might.

Not work in Chicago.

We have no idea, right so, but to take a guy below that even I think would have been a huge minus for this organization. So to take Pete Carroll, I think today looks pretty damn good for that team.

Now we're waiting on Jerry and the Saints. I'm surprised they haven't. You know, Jerry likes to play games. But if you talk to Schottennheimer for seven hours back to back days.

Can you imagine, I mean, that's automatically going to be the worst graded higher of the offseason if it's him.

Yeah.

Yeah.

The only way Barkley doesn't have a huge game on Sunday, and I hate to say it, but the only way he does it is if he gets hurt. We talked about containing him, right, what's containing twenty one carries for eighty yards?

Yeah, I'd say it. I'm going to say that's real. He's just too good. And you know the home runs coming as well.

It's on the way they had them bottle up.

In the first game, and then you know, to go for a buck fifty buck forty in both games and then what he did against the Rams. But you're right, like you said it earlier. If I have a quarterback who's banged up wearing a brace, this guy needs thirty carres. Yeah, right, and it's on Kellen Moore.

So a fourth down attempt will come back to haunt the commanders in this game.

Real foo gazy.

Well, you think at some point it's going to right because this is the other luck factor. This keeps working out for Dan Quinn every single week. One's just going to blow up in his face. It hasn't it happened to Dan Campbell many times? When's it going to happen to Quinn? It worked out in Tampa. They didn't get every one of them, but when they went forward fourth and goal who they led to two touchdowns because they got the turnover after that. But I will also say, yeah, you would think that this would be if it's not here, it's got to happen at some point.

I think one of the reasons why it's so successful again, you have Kingsbury calling great plays, yes, and Daniels is awesome that keeping plays alive and he can pick it up multiple ways running or finding the open guy. And by the way, like when he takes off, that means that it could be like five six seconds and guys are going to get open because it's tough to hold on the coverage that long.

If you watch what the commanders call.

In short yardage situations and then compared to what other teams do where you want to break your TV, it's night and day. And now not every team can do that because not every team has a Jayden Daniels, but you can be creative with your play calleade. And I think that's like the biggest, you know, downfall of these other teams in the league.

So there you have it. Realler for Gazy for this coming weekend.

He did it in the final game of the regular season against Dallas. They're like, we're not going to overtime. Yeah, and they look they look, Quinn looks right at them. What do you have for me? That was He's sure, I'm ready to go, look right at his sheet, touchdown. They win the game. Getting ready for Big Game fifty nine with a big deal to match, say fifty nine dollars off the Vson Pro annual subscription when you sign up using promo code FtM every best bet, every host, every guest. The betting splits from DraftKings and Circle the dog videos, the betting Guides, prop Analyzer, every sport, everything that's up there, including Nigel with his picks. Coming up Vison dot Com slash subscribe promo code FtM fifty nine dollars off the Vson Pro annual subscription today Vson dot Com slash subscribe.

All right, you mentioned to PAULI right there, so we'll get to a coming up next. Our man in Amsterdam will not really but kind of close. Nigel Seely is going to join the program coming up next. He was always with us every week when we were on the mornings here on Vson, and in a minute.

Since we talked to him.

But he's gonna have best bets in soccer this weekend, including a team to win to nail. He's got a player prop in a lower league match as well. Find out who Nigel likes this week next here on Vson.

This is part of the money on Vison.

Thomas Cable from the Borgata coming up. Eagles have won fourteen to fifteen, as has been a repeat of the last excuse me, a repeat of two years ago when everyone was coming to town or going to the Bordguard and hammering the Eagles on futures we'll get his perspective and thoughts on what's going on with the NFC title game coming up. It's our friend Nigel Seely at Ceilaners Score. Nigel on X usually visit with him on a weekly basis with the prem we have a couple lower league picks and to nil. Here's Nigel's opinion and take on this week's soccer card. Take it away, Nigel.

Hello, it is Nigel Seely and I'm back here on Vison's Follow the Money to give you my best three bets across the English Premier League this weekend and I start at Anfield in the Saturday game at ten o'clock Eastern Time between the Premier League title favorites and the league leaders, Liverpool up against one of the relegation favorites in Ipswich Town. Liverpool left it late against Brentford, but they got the job done. They're extending their league at the top of the Premier League table.

Can they be stopped?

It looks very very ominous for anybody in the chasing pack to stop down the Reds and will they get a win again against the literati of the weekend where they're minus one than one.

Hundred and fifteen to get the win.

If you fancy Ipswich two get three points are famous three points at Andrew is twenty five to one and the draw is ten to one. So where do we make some money on this match? Well, where I think we should make the money is by betting Liverpool to win to nil. So Liverpool's win one, l two, Neil, three and four nil. As long as Ipswich do not score and Liverpool win, we cash on this ticket. If you look at Liverpool's so look at ipswhich is matches against the teams at the top end of the Premier League table. They lost one nil to Arsenal, they lost two nil in the reverse fixtures to Liverpool. They got big six nail by Manchester City last week, one nil against Nottingham Forest and they got beat four nil by Newcastle. So all those matches they lost to nil against the better teams. Six of their last seven losses for it which have been to nil, and Liverpool have done really conceived many goals at Anfield. So I'm going to go for Liverpool to win to Niel. The price is minus one twenty a lot lot better than the heavy minus.

Money on them on the money line.

And if you look at Itpswich is next couple of fixtures. Next week they're at home to Southampton. That is their priority. A trip to Liverpool is not the priority. They know they're going to come short here and I expect Liverpool to keep that title charge going with a win and a winter nil, which is minus one twenty. That represents some kind of value. The biggest game in the Premier League this weekend is probably on Saturday afternoon, twelve thirty Eastern Time's the evening kickoff over here, and it's the match between the champions and the faltering champions.

Manchester City up against Chelsea.

Manchester City or the biggest price they've ever been at home against Chelsea in a Premier League match. They're approaching even money and Chelsea have been bet overnight from two point plus two seventy five to plus two point fifty. That's still a big price for Chelsea. And Manchester City are in all kinds of problems. They were turning it up against Paris anser Man the Champions League, threw it away and got beat four two. That's not the first time they've done that. They've done that against Fire and OIDs they've done that against Brentford. They are conceding goals and alarming rate. You might look at City's recent form, I think, well they're back to winning ways.

But these are the teams.

They beat Leicester, one of the bottom three, west Ham massively, injury crisis, Sufford in the FA Cup from lead to and Ipswich, another team at the bottom of the Premier League table. They haven't beaten Liverpool, topt them twice, Brighton Aston Villa or Born with them. When they play top class opposition they usually come second best and Chelsea are top class opposition. I also think this is a big match because obviously Chelsea have no European football this.

Week that are fully rested.

City have had that match in Paris last night on Wednesday, and then next week they have this huge match at home to Club Bruges and if they do not win that match, well they're out the Champions League. He would have thought that wouldn't even make the top twenty four, so that's going to be the priority. It's a great time to play matches to City and Chelsea here at plus two point fifty, a bit bigger than my usual bets, but I think it's too big. City and opposable and Chelsea are fancy at plus three fifty to get three points.

My final bet is on Sunday.

It is in the London between Crystal Palace and Brentford. I watched Crystal Palace last week against west Ham. Crystal Palace were excellent. They were very very strong defensively. They played three center defenders and they never gave west Ham a chance. West Ham did not have a single shot on target Wes. If you look at Crystal Palace, they are the third lowest home scoring team in the Premier League. Only Ipswich and Southampton have scored less goals than Crystal Palace at home. And although Brentford are really good at home, they don't get involved in many high scoring games on the road.

They're the fourth.

Lowest road scorers on the road Brentford, which is a bit of a surprise, and there was only one point between the two of them in the Premier League table.

I expect this to be tight.

Brentford have drawn nil neil in a couple of their recent road matches at Brighton and Everton, and I don't think there's going to be much in it. If you go back through history, this has been a great fixture for Crystal Palace. Nineteen fifty seven was the last time that Brentford won this London Derby. Crystal Palace have had a brilliant record. The last four matches between these two sides have been under two and a half goals, five the last six has been under two and a half goals and I think in recent form as well, and how good a Crystal Palace are defensive fee now, I don't think there's going to be many goals here, So under two and a half goals at plus one ten Crystal Palace week Brentford completes my three best bets in the Premier League this weekend. So a recap. I am going to go for Liverpool to win to Niel against Ipswich minus one twenty. I'm going to go for Chelsea to add to Pep Guardiala Manchester City's worries with the win on the money line a plus two fifty. And finally we'll go for under two and a half goals Crystal Palace against Brentford at plus one ten.

That's it for this week.

Take care, kick, good luck with all your bets and I'll speak to you all again next week.

All right, great job, Nigel. Good to talk to you, and let's cast some tickets in the prem excellent and hoping Man City continues to lose. Super Bowl MVP bets. We touched on it earlier. I think you can make the case for a long shot, especially defensive MVP. If it's Chiefs against Eagles in the Super Bowl, low scoring game, two good defensive teams, a compromise quarterback and Hurts, plus can they contain or slow down Barkley. I think that opens the door for a lot of guys here, and you're looking at long shots such as Worthy seventy to one, Joanes sixty to one. I know you mentioned a couple guys Mitchell two hundred and fifty to one, Goddard one hundred and fifty to one. So there's I think a long shot could cash if that's your Super Bowl matchup.

Let's say you, well, so nine defensive players have actually won the award before at many.

Yeah, it's higher than I would have guessed.

Von Miller the last was it?

Probably? I don't have to listen in front of me.

I just have overall numbers by position, four linebackers, three defensive backs, two defensive linemen have won it in the history of the Super Bowl, and nine wide receivers have won, seven running backs, so more receivers and running backs, and then thirty three times an overwhelming amount, the quarterback has won the Super Bowl MVP.

So it can be a little frustrating.

Again, look at what happened Monday night in the National Title game. I know that you were happy because you had inside information that your cousin was going to go off in the game. He was great, will Howard, and you know Mosey seventeen to twenty.

One, Yes, and a four straight touchdown drives Bonds one hundred to one. You mentioned him an hour ago.

Yeah, okay, yep, But Junkins had one hundred and ten and three touchdowns and he didn't get the award. It's like the Super Bowl a couple of years ago with the Chiefs and the forty nine Ers five years ago. Now, in fact, I thought that should have been Williams, the running back for the Chiefs all day long. But because they came roaring back, Mahomes hit a big pass to Hill, they looked at the quarterback and said, now he's got to win the MVP. I thought Williams he iced the game for him. Light had a huge game on the ground, should have won the award, didn't. I never had a bet on the guy. I thought James White had a great case.

Yes he did.

The year the Patriots came back against truth Falcons.

Chuck Gattle had him two hundred and one. He was livid. Oh oh mama. He was awesome in that game.

No, he was unstoppable. I know, so's it's tough.

Like you're seeing plus number of prices obviously right now and all four of the quarterbacks and.

Like definitely could see. I'm no, I think that's a bad bet. Mahomes just that. I mean, what kind of numbers is he gonna put up? And then plus it's the fatigue stuff and what if there's some more controversy with the officiating do I mean?

I also don't think voters have a problem with that, though maybe I'm wrong with that because Michael Jordan probably should have won the MVP every year that he played in the NBA, didn't, No doubt people in the league got tired of that. Yeah, Kobe won one m v P.

Now that's hard to believe.

Yeah, this year, Joker is not going to win it. Probably what is uh SGA now minus five dollars and jokers numbers are stupid.

It seems fake for a video game.

But I don't know, because you would think if that's the matchup, maybe two hundred and twenty yards passing from Mahomes. I'm surprised he's the favorite to have most passing yards this week. And I know Philly's got a great defense, but still he's like, you know, in that plus one eighty range, Hurts is as high as eight to one, but then Hurts could maybe only have one hundred and thirty hundred and forty yards passing. That's true, So that's it could be a low scoring super Bowl, And I think you can make the case for several people if that's the matchup.

Well, if you like, like if you have a future ticket on the Bills, or if you're contemplating betting them to win the Super Bowl, won't you sprinkle a little bit on Alan to win the MVP as well, Like he's going to be the guy, I would think, right if Buffalo gets there.

He had average numbers last week. That's the other thing he didn't do much. Look at his numbers. What are one hundred and sixty yards passing, not much on.

The ground, but they didn't do anything offensively anyway. Yeah, that's actually a good question. If that was a Super Bowl last week against Baltimore, who's the MVP, you take a defensive player, that would have been a tough call, very tough.

Yeah. Yeah, this is this is good though. Give me but I don't mind Carter. Carter's one hundred and one two, I don't mind.

Well, there's an angle for that, I think for sure.

Yes, Thomas Cable, the man in charge Borgoda Sportsbook in the Atlantic City, on the program coming up next, they couldn't stop taking Eagles money two years ago.

Is it similar again this year?

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