This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gadigel people of the Uran Nation.

This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gadigel people of the Uran Nation.

Hello, and welcome to the Real Story with Joe Hildebrand.

Hello, and welcome to the Real Story with Joe Hildebrand.

Well, it's on or it's off. We don't really know. The election may have been blown off course by cyclone Alfred. Do you see what I did there? Plus what's it like to have a bounty on your head put there by the Chinese Communist Party. We're going to speak to someone who is literally on the run from the Chinese government. This is incredible cloak and dagger stuff. He's going to give us some insights onto how these guys operate and what is happening with Donald Trump. Again, we might as well just have this as a permanent Can we just record that what the hell is going on with Donald Trump? So I don't have to say it every week? Did he just start World War three in the Ukraine? Did he just stop World War three? We're going to get into that as well. All that and heaps more coming up. So first up, we are meant to be in an election campaign already. I mean we are in an election campaign already, but it was meant to have been officially called by now, the time for an April fifth election to be called was over the past weekend Monday at the very latest, but they usually do it on a Sunday or a Saturday, and it didn't happen. There are a couple of reasons for that, and one of them is the reason it may not happen on April twelve, which was the other date that everyone thought. So just to rewind, you heard here that there was a whole bunch of smart money on April five being the day of the federal election. Now this was for a whole bunch of reasons. One April twelve was meant to be the day, and this would rule out the need for the government to release a budget that it had brought forward for some reason when news was meant to be better. I guess that a budget that was not going to have good news to be a budget in deficit after two surpluses. So if you bring the election forward, you don't have to worry about any of that. Parliament doesn't have to go back, and of course you don't want to have an election in the middle of Easter or Anzac Day or the school holidays, which is all happening in late April. And then you get really right up against it. You get to the end of the government's actual term when they have to call it no matter what. So the idea was that you had call it for April twelve, and then some little bright sparks that ah, that's the beginning of Passover. And you know how the Jewish community is already a big stuff. You about it a few little things, you know, the fire bombings, the synagogues, the torch cars, that sort of stuff. Maybe you don't want to kind of upset them again. And so everyone thought that April fifth was the new Day, which has all the benefits of April twelve, but with none of the drawbacks. That didn't happen, And probably the reason it didn't happen is the reason it might not. Dare I say, probably won't happen on April twelfth if the prognosis is as bad as it's going to be, and that is, of course cyclone, Alfred, this is the cyclone. But by the time you're hearing this, we might have a better idea of just how damaging it has been and is going to be. But they were thinking maybe twenty thousand people might have to leave their homes or might be affected or inundated by flootboys one way or the other, and it's hitting the very highly populated unlike other cyclones which tend to hit further north, hitting very highly populated southeast corner of Queensland, so Brisbane and the Gold Coast. So it's a very very potentially dangerous prospect. I think they're thinking could be a Category three by the time it makes landfall, and the Prime Minister and David chris A fully the Premier of Queensland, are already up in Queensland warning people to take precautions, sandbag their homes. Footy matches shows everything's been rescheduled or called off or sent to other areas. So if that happens, and if that is what is going on over the weekend, I think it would be impossible for the PM to call an election for April twelve. He would basically have to sort of leave the disastersign and say sorry, while you're still safeguarding your homes or you know you're in that evacuation center, We're.

Well, it's on or it's off. We don't really know. The election may have been blown off course by cyclone Alfred. Do you see what I did there? Plus what's it like to have a bounty on your head put there by the Chinese Communist Party. We're going to speak to someone who is literally on the run from the Chinese government. This is incredible cloak and dagger stuff. He's going to give us some insights onto how these guys operate and what is happening with Donald Trump. Again, we might as well just have this as a permanent Can we just record that what the hell is going on with Donald Trump? So I don't have to say it every week? Did he just start World War three in the Ukraine? Did he just stop World War three? We're going to get into that as well. All that and heaps more coming up. So first up, we are meant to be in an election campaign already. I mean we are in an election campaign already, but it was meant to have been officially called by now, the time for an April fifth election to be called was over the past weekend Monday at the very latest, but they usually do it on a Sunday or a Saturday, and it didn't happen. There are a couple of reasons for that, and one of them is the reason it may not happen on April twelve, which was the other date that everyone thought. So just to rewind, you heard here that there was a whole bunch of smart money on April five being the day of the federal election. Now this was for a whole bunch of reasons. One April twelve was meant to be the day, and this would rule out the need for the government to release a budget that it had brought forward for some reason when news was meant to be better. I guess that a budget that was not going to have good news to be a budget in deficit after two surpluses. So if you bring the election forward, you don't have to worry about any of that. Parliament doesn't have to go back, and of course you don't want to have an election in the middle of Easter or Anzac Day or the school holidays, which is all happening in late April. And then you get really right up against it. You get to the end of the government's actual term when they have to call it no matter what. So the idea was that you had call it for April twelve, and then some little bright sparks that ah, that's the beginning of Passover. And you know how the Jewish community is already a big stuff. You about it a few little things, you know, the fire bombings, the synagogues, the torch cars, that sort of stuff. Maybe you don't want to kind of upset them again. And so everyone thought that April fifth was the new Day, which has all the benefits of April twelve, but with none of the drawbacks. That didn't happen, And probably the reason it didn't happen is the reason it might not. Dare I say, probably won't happen on April twelfth if the prognosis is as bad as it's going to be, and that is, of course cyclone, Alfred, this is the cyclone. But by the time you're hearing this, we might have a better idea of just how damaging it has been and is going to be. But they were thinking maybe twenty thousand people might have to leave their homes or might be affected or inundated by flootboys one way or the other, and it's hitting the very highly populated unlike other cyclones which tend to hit further north, hitting very highly populated southeast corner of Queensland, so Brisbane and the Gold Coast. So it's a very very potentially dangerous prospect. I think they're thinking could be a Category three by the time it makes landfall, and the Prime Minister and David chris A fully the Premier of Queensland, are already up in Queensland warning people to take precautions, sandbag their homes. Footy matches shows everything's been rescheduled or called off or sent to other areas. So if that happens, and if that is what is going on over the weekend, I think it would be impossible for the PM to call an election for April twelve. He would basically have to sort of leave the disastersign and say sorry, while you're still safeguarding your homes or you know you're in that evacuation center, We're.

Just calling a poll for April twelve.

Just calling a poll for April twelve.

I'm just going to drive to Yarra Lumla in my taxpayer funded limousine and call an election because I think that would be the most politically advantageous time for me. So obviously he's not going to do that because he's not a monster. So again, if there's a great big sigh of relief and the cyclone comes and it's just a bit of a stiff wind and you know, a nice dose of rain, no problem, he can do that. Thank God. Aren't we lucky? You know the worst is over. It wasn't as bad. We've dodged a bullet. Okay, let's go to the polls Australia. Aren't you lucky to be alive? But if it is as bad as it is predicted to be, then I'm afraid. I just don't see how that happens. And that means that because there's the holidays because of Anzac Day and Lisa.

I'm just going to drive to Yarra Lumla in my taxpayer funded limousine and call an election because I think that would be the most politically advantageous time for me. So obviously he's not going to do that because he's not a monster. So again, if there's a great big sigh of relief and the cyclone comes and it's just a bit of a stiff wind and you know, a nice dose of rain, no problem, he can do that. Thank God. Aren't we lucky? You know the worst is over. It wasn't as bad. We've dodged a bullet. Okay, let's go to the polls Australia. Aren't you lucky to be alive? But if it is as bad as it is predicted to be, then I'm afraid. I just don't see how that happens. And that means that because there's the holidays because of Anzac Day and Lisa.

The next likeless day would be May third, and.

The next likeless day would be May third, and.

That is just killing me because I am just waiting for this thing to be called so that I can then be the busiest man in Australia and do all the stuff that I have to do. And it's gonna just I just want it over and done with, quite frankly. But I also want to just get right into it, so it may in fact be delayed even beyond April twelfth, which is what everyone had thought was going to be after it wasn't April the fifth. Does that make sense? I hope. So now, just on another note, this is just a personal thing. But Alfred. I mean, given this cyclone is going to cause such damage and destruction, why are we calling it Alfred? I know they choose these names at random, and I know that they can't just go with it. It used to just be you know, girls' names, you know, and everyone said, well that's a bit sexist, just naming these terribly destructive things after women. But al get a more menacing name, Like what's cyclone Alfred? What's it going to do? Become the first king of England? You know, like, get it if you're going to name it after blokes? You know, cyclone, cyclone demo, you know, someone who's going to smash a beer bottle and start waving it around at the end of the night, you know, just a thought. Anyway, Hope everyone's okay. That is obviously just the political analysis. The most important thing is that everyone stays alive and safe and God willing, that's exactly what will happen. Let's get to the rest of the show. Now. As I was coming into Nova Studios to record this today, I bumped into one of my lovely bosses here, Ellie. In fact, she's more than a boss. She's a friend. And not just not just a friend, but an incredibly intelligent, kind, thoughtful, good looking, wise, wonderful, kitten loving friend. I mean, I mean, this is the sort of person that you just think, I'm just so lucky to have you in my life. And the fact that she's my boss has nothing to do with that. This is just an a This is one human being to another, just saying I see a touch of the divine in you. Anyway, she said, Joe, tell me it's going to be okay. I said, tell you what's going.

That is just killing me because I am just waiting for this thing to be called so that I can then be the busiest man in Australia and do all the stuff that I have to do. And it's gonna just I just want it over and done with, quite frankly. But I also want to just get right into it, so it may in fact be delayed even beyond April twelfth, which is what everyone had thought was going to be after it wasn't April the fifth. Does that make sense? I hope. So now, just on another note, this is just a personal thing. But Alfred. I mean, given this cyclone is going to cause such damage and destruction, why are we calling it Alfred? I know they choose these names at random, and I know that they can't just go with it. It used to just be you know, girls' names, you know, and everyone said, well that's a bit sexist, just naming these terribly destructive things after women. But al get a more menacing name, Like what's cyclone Alfred? What's it going to do? Become the first king of England? You know, like, get it if you're going to name it after blokes? You know, cyclone, cyclone demo, you know, someone who's going to smash a beer bottle and start waving it around at the end of the night, you know, just a thought. Anyway, Hope everyone's okay. That is obviously just the political analysis. The most important thing is that everyone stays alive and safe and God willing, that's exactly what will happen. Let's get to the rest of the show. Now. As I was coming into Nova Studios to record this today, I bumped into one of my lovely bosses here, Ellie. In fact, she's more than a boss. She's a friend. And not just not just a friend, but an incredibly intelligent, kind, thoughtful, good looking, wise, wonderful, kitten loving friend. I mean, I mean, this is the sort of person that you just think, I'm just so lucky to have you in my life. And the fact that she's my boss has nothing to do with that. This is just an a This is one human being to another, just saying I see a touch of the divine in you. Anyway, she said, Joe, tell me it's going to be okay. I said, tell you what's going.

To be okay.

To be okay.

We've got World War three Option A started by Russia, World War three Option B started by China. We've got cyclone Alfred about to rip the Jesus out of Southeast and Queensland. We've got a cost of living crisis that still hasn't gone away. We've got you know, New Zealand's probably up to something and we don't even know about it. I mean, what crisis are you talking about? What do you want to be okay from and she said, I don't know. I was actually feeling much more cheerful before you mentioned all that. Anyway, let's get straight to the guts of it, which is, of course, World War three option A. We will be dealing with World War three option B later in the show, which is what China is doing and why they sailing warships around the coast of Australia. And I've got something actually quite interesting to say about that as well. But World War III Option A is very much the love child of Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelenski, who is the president of Ukraine. Now, when I say it's the love child of these two, this is not a consensual relationship.

We've got World War three Option A started by Russia, World War three Option B started by China. We've got cyclone Alfred about to rip the Jesus out of Southeast and Queensland. We've got a cost of living crisis that still hasn't gone away. We've got you know, New Zealand's probably up to something and we don't even know about it. I mean, what crisis are you talking about? What do you want to be okay from and she said, I don't know. I was actually feeling much more cheerful before you mentioned all that. Anyway, let's get straight to the guts of it, which is, of course, World War three option A. We will be dealing with World War three option B later in the show, which is what China is doing and why they sailing warships around the coast of Australia. And I've got something actually quite interesting to say about that as well. But World War III Option A is very much the love child of Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelenski, who is the president of Ukraine. Now, when I say it's the love child of these two, this is not a consensual relationship.

This is Vladimir Putin invading.

This is Vladimir Putin invading.

This metaphor is getting way too sexual. But anyway, he invaded Ukraine. Whatever Donald Trump says, whatever the Internet says, whatever the conspiracy theories say about it's all Ukraine's fault because they shouldn't have toyed with, you know, joining NATO again. I just can't get the analogy out of my head. They flirted with NATO, and now Puten said, no, you are mine. I will invade you anyway. That's literally what happened. And Donald Trump, of course is in the ear of Vladimir Putin, or has the ear of Vladimir Putin, and both sort of strong men. They've got similar styles of politics. They clearly have a bit of an affinity with each other. He's had his officials talking to the Russians, He and Putin set to have a talk just between the two of them about what to do about Ukraine. Ukraine, strangely enough, is not going to be at that talk, and everyone's been very concerned about this, the Europeans going, well, hang on a minute, we thought that you were just going to come in and fix it, but fix it with Ukraine and Russia, not just Russia. And suddenly the Europe's thinking, holy crap, maybe we've just been sitting on our hands and we need to do more too, which you do anyway. So this is meant that Ukraine has suddenly tried to appease Donald Trump and has suddenly moved heaven and Earth to do what Donald Trump wants so that America will provide security guarantees to keV And it turns out that, like with everything with Donald Trump, all of this is happening against the backdrop of a deal, a big, beautiful deal. So the US is trying to extract the rights to all these rare earths in Ukraine, and obviously, in the twenty first century, rare earths are where it's at, is the new gold. And they want i think half the rights or the rights to half of what the Ukrainians dig up. And Ukraine had been saying no to the US because if someone comes over and says, I want half of all the good stuff that's in your ground, you say no, unless, of course you're very survival depends on your giving it, and that was what was about to happen. So Vladmya Zelenski, the President of Ukraine, suddenly, where the US just saying no, well, we'll just do whatever Russia wants. Then we'll just give it to them if you want playballs, Suddenly they want a deal. Suddenly they want to sign over their rare earths to the US. And a meeting is set up between Vladimir Zelensky and Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House, televised live across the world. Now, this should have been the greatest ever clutching, you know, victory from the jaws of defeat. Ever, this is this is this is just you know, this is like Rambo driving off on the motorcycle while the building explodes behind him. He has just got away with it. Zelenski has dealt himself back in to the table to negotiations by offering up this deal to the Americans. And he picks it up. And he was under great provocation and he was obviously there to be kind of you know, chasened a little bit and telling him, but he screwed it up. So what happened? He goes in. Firstly, there's reports that he was said, maybe you should wear a suit instead of your sort of trademark figure hugging, you know, T shirt and skivvy with makes you look like a kind of paramilitary guy when in fact you're just you're the politician. You're a civilian politician. So and you know, maybe Donald would like it. He likes it when people dress up, you know, chuck on a suit. It was reported that this was maybe suggested to him, maybe it wasn't, who knows. Anyway, he rocks up in his usual military fatigazy at least were sort of long sleeve this time, and he looks pretty cool in them. But again, him looking cool is not the point of this exercise. The point of this exercise is for Donald Trump to look cool, or more importantly, to look like the big guy, the winner, the deal maker who brings people to the table. So he rocks up Donald Trump immediately, even as he's welcoming him, as he gets out of the cart, immediately comments on the fact that he's not wearing a suit, makes a little joke about it. Right, That should tell you where things are likely to go anyway. He then comes in. They have this conversation that goes for about forty minutes, and everything's going swimmingly. They're down to the last question. And what happens then is that jd Vance, the Vice President, chips in and says we're going to do things differently to Joe Biden. Now, Donald Trump and Jade Vance hanging shit on Joe Biden is what they are there to do. That is just par for the course. That does not require any intervention, It does not require and comment. That just requires what the comedian Kevin Bridges would say in terms of how to deal with Donald Trump, you just tap him on the shining enjoy your Nate me so just enjoy Okay, Yeah, fine, say whatever you want about j You don't have to agree, you don't have to disagree, you don't have to argue with it. But Zelenski cannot help himself, and he starts sort of pressing the point. He says, well, how are you, how are you going to do diplomacy any different to what Biden? Did you trust with Vladimir Putin? And what is that actually saying? Well, of course Ladim Putin is the bad guy here. Of course he's evil. He is the aggressor, there is no question about that. But he's also the guy that clearly Donald Trump likes. So you're saying to Donald Trump, do you actually trust this mate that you're doing a deal with, that you're friends with? And that makes Donald Trump look like a Trump. And even though those two things rhyme, that is the one thing that Donald Trump does not like being called. He is the guy who's the shrewd deal maker. He's the guy I can always extract. He wrote book literally called The Art of the Deal. And Zelenski is now telling him that he's making a stupid deal with Vadmir Putin, which he is. But you don't need to say it again. It's like The Big Lebowski where Walter's subject says, am I wrong? Dude? Am I wrong? Says no, Walter, You're not wrong, You're just an asshole. Zelenski didn't need to point out to Donald Trump or Jdevance that they were wrong. But he can't help but do it. He just implies it by saying, what you guys are trusting? Putin why is he there? Again? An American journo made of Mind said that apparently been meeting with Democrats on Capitol Hill before the meeting, and they'd been geeing him up, saying you've got it. You know you've got a hold Donald Rum to account or whatever it was. Now again, why would you do that? Why in front of the nations, the world's cameras, would you try to show up or prove wrong or even argue with the one bloke who could save your countries are the one blog who could save your country's actual existence. You don't do it. You are there just to nod and smile and say thank you. And then, in the words of Oliver Twists, I'm really quoting all the big ones here, Please, sir, can I have some more? But of course they get their hackles up, and then JD. Vance says, hey, well, you're not being very respectful. You haven't even said thank you once, And of course, next thing you know, it's on like donkey Kong. Zelenski actually gets booted out of the building literally get told not out, you go, you're not coming back. Come back, you know, like you say to your kids, come back here when you're ready to behave yourself. And he goes off and all the rest of the world's leaders embrace him and say how much they support him. But none of that matters, of course, because if America doesn't support Ukraine, they can have all the support in the world literally from everybody else in the world, and it's not going to be enough to stand up to Russia. And so next thing you know, the US is actually temporarily suspended AID because Solenzi's gone out and said, oh well, no, the wars gonna be over any time soon, and say, oh, well, he's not ready for peace, we're going to suspend that. So they're already doing it. They've already grounded the aid that were going to give to Ukraine. And guess what, Zelenski now says he's ready to make things right. Wants to talk again and just think how all of this could have been avoided simply by saying and doing nothing. Now, over the past week, there's been a lot of questions raised about the presence of Chinese warships just off the coast of Australia, something that appeared to take our national government by surprise. Neither Australia nor it seems possibly even New Zealand was informed about this, but Papa New Guinea for some reason was and this is alarmed. A lot of security experts said, right, what is China doing in our region? And it raises bigger questions as to how China exerts itself politically and militarily and strategically around the world. And our next guest knows this firsthand. He's someone who has experienced the long arm of Chinese influence personally. His name is Kevin Yam. He's a member of the China Strategic Risks Institute. He's a former Hong Kong lawyer. He's a senior fellow at the Georgetown University Center for Asian Law. And he's someone who has a bounty on his head placed on it by the Chinese Communist Party by the government of China, and he joins me live on the line right now. Good day, Kevin, how are you welcome.

This metaphor is getting way too sexual. But anyway, he invaded Ukraine. Whatever Donald Trump says, whatever the Internet says, whatever the conspiracy theories say about it's all Ukraine's fault because they shouldn't have toyed with, you know, joining NATO again. I just can't get the analogy out of my head. They flirted with NATO, and now Puten said, no, you are mine. I will invade you anyway. That's literally what happened. And Donald Trump, of course is in the ear of Vladimir Putin, or has the ear of Vladimir Putin, and both sort of strong men. They've got similar styles of politics. They clearly have a bit of an affinity with each other. He's had his officials talking to the Russians, He and Putin set to have a talk just between the two of them about what to do about Ukraine. Ukraine, strangely enough, is not going to be at that talk, and everyone's been very concerned about this, the Europeans going, well, hang on a minute, we thought that you were just going to come in and fix it, but fix it with Ukraine and Russia, not just Russia. And suddenly the Europe's thinking, holy crap, maybe we've just been sitting on our hands and we need to do more too, which you do anyway. So this is meant that Ukraine has suddenly tried to appease Donald Trump and has suddenly moved heaven and Earth to do what Donald Trump wants so that America will provide security guarantees to keV And it turns out that, like with everything with Donald Trump, all of this is happening against the backdrop of a deal, a big, beautiful deal. So the US is trying to extract the rights to all these rare earths in Ukraine, and obviously, in the twenty first century, rare earths are where it's at, is the new gold. And they want i think half the rights or the rights to half of what the Ukrainians dig up. And Ukraine had been saying no to the US because if someone comes over and says, I want half of all the good stuff that's in your ground, you say no, unless, of course you're very survival depends on your giving it, and that was what was about to happen. So Vladmya Zelenski, the President of Ukraine, suddenly, where the US just saying no, well, we'll just do whatever Russia wants. Then we'll just give it to them if you want playballs, Suddenly they want a deal. Suddenly they want to sign over their rare earths to the US. And a meeting is set up between Vladimir Zelensky and Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House, televised live across the world. Now, this should have been the greatest ever clutching, you know, victory from the jaws of defeat. Ever, this is this is this is just you know, this is like Rambo driving off on the motorcycle while the building explodes behind him. He has just got away with it. Zelenski has dealt himself back in to the table to negotiations by offering up this deal to the Americans. And he picks it up. And he was under great provocation and he was obviously there to be kind of you know, chasened a little bit and telling him, but he screwed it up. So what happened? He goes in. Firstly, there's reports that he was said, maybe you should wear a suit instead of your sort of trademark figure hugging, you know, T shirt and skivvy with makes you look like a kind of paramilitary guy when in fact you're just you're the politician. You're a civilian politician. So and you know, maybe Donald would like it. He likes it when people dress up, you know, chuck on a suit. It was reported that this was maybe suggested to him, maybe it wasn't, who knows. Anyway, he rocks up in his usual military fatigazy at least were sort of long sleeve this time, and he looks pretty cool in them. But again, him looking cool is not the point of this exercise. The point of this exercise is for Donald Trump to look cool, or more importantly, to look like the big guy, the winner, the deal maker who brings people to the table. So he rocks up Donald Trump immediately, even as he's welcoming him, as he gets out of the cart, immediately comments on the fact that he's not wearing a suit, makes a little joke about it. Right, That should tell you where things are likely to go anyway. He then comes in. They have this conversation that goes for about forty minutes, and everything's going swimmingly. They're down to the last question. And what happens then is that jd Vance, the Vice President, chips in and says we're going to do things differently to Joe Biden. Now, Donald Trump and Jade Vance hanging shit on Joe Biden is what they are there to do. That is just par for the course. That does not require any intervention, It does not require and comment. That just requires what the comedian Kevin Bridges would say in terms of how to deal with Donald Trump, you just tap him on the shining enjoy your Nate me so just enjoy Okay, Yeah, fine, say whatever you want about j You don't have to agree, you don't have to disagree, you don't have to argue with it. But Zelenski cannot help himself, and he starts sort of pressing the point. He says, well, how are you, how are you going to do diplomacy any different to what Biden? Did you trust with Vladimir Putin? And what is that actually saying? Well, of course Ladim Putin is the bad guy here. Of course he's evil. He is the aggressor, there is no question about that. But he's also the guy that clearly Donald Trump likes. So you're saying to Donald Trump, do you actually trust this mate that you're doing a deal with, that you're friends with? And that makes Donald Trump look like a Trump. And even though those two things rhyme, that is the one thing that Donald Trump does not like being called. He is the guy who's the shrewd deal maker. He's the guy I can always extract. He wrote book literally called The Art of the Deal. And Zelenski is now telling him that he's making a stupid deal with Vadmir Putin, which he is. But you don't need to say it again. It's like The Big Lebowski where Walter's subject says, am I wrong? Dude? Am I wrong? Says no, Walter, You're not wrong, You're just an asshole. Zelenski didn't need to point out to Donald Trump or Jdevance that they were wrong. But he can't help but do it. He just implies it by saying, what you guys are trusting? Putin why is he there? Again? An American journo made of Mind said that apparently been meeting with Democrats on Capitol Hill before the meeting, and they'd been geeing him up, saying you've got it. You know you've got a hold Donald Rum to account or whatever it was. Now again, why would you do that? Why in front of the nations, the world's cameras, would you try to show up or prove wrong or even argue with the one bloke who could save your countries are the one blog who could save your country's actual existence. You don't do it. You are there just to nod and smile and say thank you. And then, in the words of Oliver Twists, I'm really quoting all the big ones here, Please, sir, can I have some more? But of course they get their hackles up, and then JD. Vance says, hey, well, you're not being very respectful. You haven't even said thank you once, And of course, next thing you know, it's on like donkey Kong. Zelenski actually gets booted out of the building literally get told not out, you go, you're not coming back. Come back, you know, like you say to your kids, come back here when you're ready to behave yourself. And he goes off and all the rest of the world's leaders embrace him and say how much they support him. But none of that matters, of course, because if America doesn't support Ukraine, they can have all the support in the world literally from everybody else in the world, and it's not going to be enough to stand up to Russia. And so next thing you know, the US is actually temporarily suspended AID because Solenzi's gone out and said, oh well, no, the wars gonna be over any time soon, and say, oh, well, he's not ready for peace, we're going to suspend that. So they're already doing it. They've already grounded the aid that were going to give to Ukraine. And guess what, Zelenski now says he's ready to make things right. Wants to talk again and just think how all of this could have been avoided simply by saying and doing nothing. Now, over the past week, there's been a lot of questions raised about the presence of Chinese warships just off the coast of Australia, something that appeared to take our national government by surprise. Neither Australia nor it seems possibly even New Zealand was informed about this, but Papa New Guinea for some reason was and this is alarmed. A lot of security experts said, right, what is China doing in our region? And it raises bigger questions as to how China exerts itself politically and militarily and strategically around the world. And our next guest knows this firsthand. He's someone who has experienced the long arm of Chinese influence personally. His name is Kevin Yam. He's a member of the China Strategic Risks Institute. He's a former Hong Kong lawyer. He's a senior fellow at the Georgetown University Center for Asian Law. And he's someone who has a bounty on his head placed on it by the Chinese Communist Party by the government of China, and he joins me live on the line right now. Good day, Kevin, how are you welcome.

Good Joe. How's it going?

Good Joe. How's it going?

Look, it's going incredibly well, I think, but a lot of people are very nervous about yet more Chinese aggression in our region. Just before we get into your story, what did you make of the presence of Chinese warships just outside of Australia's economic exclusion zone and the Tasman Sea. I imagine this is something that didn't entirely take you by surprise.

Look, it's going incredibly well, I think, but a lot of people are very nervous about yet more Chinese aggression in our region. Just before we get into your story, what did you make of the presence of Chinese warships just outside of Australia's economic exclusion zone and the Tasman Sea. I imagine this is something that didn't entirely take you by surprise.

No, I'm not particularly surprised. I know that in Australia there's been a bit of a bypassers and push for warmer relations for China, and there was hope that by pursuing that some of these incidents that might have happened in the past would go away. But they never go away. And in fact, it's not just Australia or for that Matt in New Zealand that feel the effects of these sorts of let's pursue former relations. But China still keeps pushing situations. I mean, we look at Southeast Asia. I mean we look at Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, all countries that seek to pursue warmer relations of China, but in the South China Sea, China keeps pushing against them.

No, I'm not particularly surprised. I know that in Australia there's been a bit of a bypassers and push for warmer relations for China, and there was hope that by pursuing that some of these incidents that might have happened in the past would go away. But they never go away. And in fact, it's not just Australia or for that Matt in New Zealand that feel the effects of these sorts of let's pursue former relations. But China still keeps pushing situations. I mean, we look at Southeast Asia. I mean we look at Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, all countries that seek to pursue warmer relations of China, but in the South China Sea, China keeps pushing against them.

So basically, if you try to appease China far from China saying okay, we're friends now, it simply exploits that and uses that to push further and further its own nationalist and internationalist agender.

So basically, if you try to appease China far from China saying okay, we're friends now, it simply exploits that and uses that to push further and further its own nationalist and internationalist agender.

Well, in short, for China, everything is transactional, right, and so they're not going to take a particularly principled approach. They will say, well, okay, on trade or economic relations, that's one piece, and we've transacted over that for what both you and we consider to be of mutual benefit. But the military side is another piece. Territorial claims is another piece, Regional influences another piece. They get negotiated separately.

Well, in short, for China, everything is transactional, right, and so they're not going to take a particularly principled approach. They will say, well, okay, on trade or economic relations, that's one piece, and we've transacted over that for what both you and we consider to be of mutual benefit. But the military side is another piece. Territorial claims is another piece, Regional influences another piece. They get negotiated separately.

Yeah, and you know this obviously firsthand. You were in Hong Kong, were Hong Kong resident, you were a lawyer there. That was obviously a piece of territory handed back to China in nineteen ninety seven. For a while, things continue to know, the one country two systems sort of went along, and then, of course just recently over the last few years, China basically let the world know what it really planned for Hong Kong. And you've effectively been on the run since that time. Just talk us through your own personal story.

Yeah, and you know this obviously firsthand. You were in Hong Kong, were Hong Kong resident, you were a lawyer there. That was obviously a piece of territory handed back to China in nineteen ninety seven. For a while, things continue to know, the one country two systems sort of went along, and then, of course just recently over the last few years, China basically let the world know what it really planned for Hong Kong. And you've effectively been on the run since that time. Just talk us through your own personal story.

Look, I was born in Hong Kong, but I moved to Australia when I was ten years old, and I grew up here and did school here, did uni here, and you know Matt Hawthorne supporter, you name it, really but after university graduation, I went to Hong Kong and practiced as a big enn of town commercial litigation regulatory investigation for nearly twenty years, and then on the side, I was unusually also a democracy and rule of law activist. But for various reasons, including the sort of beginning of the crackdown in Hong Kong by China, I decided to come back in twenty twenty two. And after I came back, I continued to speak out on Hong Kong issues. I've met with Australian politicians, the Foreign Minister, I've testified before the US Congress and for my sins, they said, I'm colluding with foreign forces, even though you know, as an Australian citizen, I'm lobbying my own politicians. But they say that that's collusion with foreign forces and they put a two hundred thousand dollars bounty over my head.

Look, I was born in Hong Kong, but I moved to Australia when I was ten years old, and I grew up here and did school here, did uni here, and you know Matt Hawthorne supporter, you name it, really but after university graduation, I went to Hong Kong and practiced as a big enn of town commercial litigation regulatory investigation for nearly twenty years, and then on the side, I was unusually also a democracy and rule of law activist. But for various reasons, including the sort of beginning of the crackdown in Hong Kong by China, I decided to come back in twenty twenty two. And after I came back, I continued to speak out on Hong Kong issues. I've met with Australian politicians, the Foreign Minister, I've testified before the US Congress and for my sins, they said, I'm colluding with foreign forces, even though you know, as an Australian citizen, I'm lobbying my own politicians. But they say that that's collusion with foreign forces and they put a two hundred thousand dollars bounty over my head.

Wow, So now I think you are the first guest on this show who actually has a bounty on their head. Talk us through. Is that anyone who what can detain you deliver you to Chinese authorities gets two hundred thousand dollars? How does that actually work?

Wow, So now I think you are the first guest on this show who actually has a bounty on their head. Talk us through. Is that anyone who what can detain you deliver you to Chinese authorities gets two hundred thousand dollars? How does that actually work?

Well, I have no idea how they structure their payouts. That's probably a question that anyone thinking about it.

Well, I have no idea how they structure their payouts. That's probably a question that anyone thinking about it.

They're not replying to my emails though, I'm not sure how it looks.

They're not replying to my emails though, I'm not sure how it looks.

Yes, But look, I mean we are where we are, and for me, I live in Australia. Australia is at democracy and as as I'm concerned, I continue to go to the cricket during the summer, watch Hawthorn football Club win during the winter.

Yes, But look, I mean we are where we are, and for me, I live in Australia. Australia is at democracy and as as I'm concerned, I continue to go to the cricket during the summer, watch Hawthorn football Club win during the winter.

And how does it does it affect you? I mean it must affect you psychologically, it must like does that weigh heavily on your shoulders or is it something that you just try not to think about and as you say, just carry on your life, go to the footy, keep doing your work. How does it feel?

And how does it does it affect you? I mean it must affect you psychologically, it must like does that weigh heavily on your shoulders or is it something that you just try not to think about and as you say, just carry on your life, go to the footy, keep doing your work. How does it feel?

Look, I'd be lying you know, or as teenagers nowadays would like to say, you know, I'm not gonna lie, And.

Look, I'd be lying you know, or as teenagers nowadays would like to say, you know, I'm not gonna lie, And.

The reality is obviously weighs.

The reality is obviously weighs.

On you and you do have to think very carefully about some aspects of your life. So, for example, there are very few places in Asia that I can visit, and even places that I can visit, I've got to think about when to visit. So for example, if I were ever to visit Taiwan, I've got to make sure that I don't do it during typhoon season because during typhoon season, flights from Taiwan might some flights to or from Taiwan might sometimes be diverted to Hong Kong.

On you and you do have to think very carefully about some aspects of your life. So, for example, there are very few places in Asia that I can visit, and even places that I can visit, I've got to think about when to visit. So for example, if I were ever to visit Taiwan, I've got to make sure that I don't do it during typhoon season because during typhoon season, flights from Taiwan might some flights to or from Taiwan might sometimes be diverted to Hong Kong.

Wow, And if you were to happened to step off that plane, suddenly the game changes completely.

Wow, And if you were to happened to step off that plane, suddenly the game changes completely.

But then again, at some point you've just got to get on with life and put one's life experiences and knowledge to good use. And that's one of the reasons why I'm doing a PhD at Melbourne Law School and my specialism right now is looking at how authoritarian regimes affect business and financial regulations, which marries up my activist and my private practice side of things.

But then again, at some point you've just got to get on with life and put one's life experiences and knowledge to good use. And that's one of the reasons why I'm doing a PhD at Melbourne Law School and my specialism right now is looking at how authoritarian regimes affect business and financial regulations, which marries up my activist and my private practice side of things.

Over the years, it's incredibly courageous. The fact that you're under so much pressure, you have this very real, live threat hanging over your head, and yet it's just driving you to do this sort of work even more. I mean, that's incredibly gutsy of you. I want to just talk to you about I suppose the way because this is part of the modus operandi that the CCP has to put enormous psychological and mental pressure on people. We know that they will often use I suppose soft pressure on expat communities who might have family still back in China, and that they have no compunction about leveraging that and saying, you know, are you sure you really want to speak out about this when you've got Grandma still back at home. And the other interesting thing, and this seemed to me really particular and deliberate that China alerted PNNG to the presence of its warships doing military exercises with live rounds off the east coast of Australia in the Tasman Sea, and yet didn't alert Australia and New Zealand. That obviously does not happen accidentally. That is sending a very very clear message to Australia that we are going to tell you know, basically a tiny Pacific back water like PNG, everything we're doing off your coast and we're not going to tell you that seems to me a very deliberate mind game to accompany the war games that are going on just off our coast.

Over the years, it's incredibly courageous. The fact that you're under so much pressure, you have this very real, live threat hanging over your head, and yet it's just driving you to do this sort of work even more. I mean, that's incredibly gutsy of you. I want to just talk to you about I suppose the way because this is part of the modus operandi that the CCP has to put enormous psychological and mental pressure on people. We know that they will often use I suppose soft pressure on expat communities who might have family still back in China, and that they have no compunction about leveraging that and saying, you know, are you sure you really want to speak out about this when you've got Grandma still back at home. And the other interesting thing, and this seemed to me really particular and deliberate that China alerted PNNG to the presence of its warships doing military exercises with live rounds off the east coast of Australia in the Tasman Sea, and yet didn't alert Australia and New Zealand. That obviously does not happen accidentally. That is sending a very very clear message to Australia that we are going to tell you know, basically a tiny Pacific back water like PNG, everything we're doing off your coast and we're not going to tell you that seems to me a very deliberate mind game to accompany the war games that are going on just off our coast.

Now, it may or may not be a mind game, but what's very clear I think is that it's part of the PRC's influence operations across the Pacific. So by doing things like this, what they're trying to tell Pacific countries like the PNG is that look, for a long time, you've been the Western countries, but now we treat you guys as being even more important than these white Western guys. Look at how we roll out the red carpet for you.

Now, it may or may not be a mind game, but what's very clear I think is that it's part of the PRC's influence operations across the Pacific. So by doing things like this, what they're trying to tell Pacific countries like the PNG is that look, for a long time, you've been the Western countries, but now we treat you guys as being even more important than these white Western guys. Look at how we roll out the red carpet for you.

Yes, absolutely, and we've seen obviously them doing it in the Solomon Islands. I think fig is also got a bit of a bit of attention recently. How much of a threat do you think, I mean, I know that you know they're working on. This is now an area of real primary concern for the Australian government. They are running around trying to assure Asia Pacific nations that in fact Australia is still very interested in their security, in their economic development. We've just given P ANDG six hundred million dollars for a quote unquote football team, which must be the most well healed football team in all of sporting history. How much of a threat do you think it is that these nations will flip to China and will start sort of, you know, parking Chinese warships in their Chinese funded ports.

Yes, absolutely, and we've seen obviously them doing it in the Solomon Islands. I think fig is also got a bit of a bit of attention recently. How much of a threat do you think, I mean, I know that you know they're working on. This is now an area of real primary concern for the Australian government. They are running around trying to assure Asia Pacific nations that in fact Australia is still very interested in their security, in their economic development. We've just given P ANDG six hundred million dollars for a quote unquote football team, which must be the most well healed football team in all of sporting history. How much of a threat do you think it is that these nations will flip to China and will start sort of, you know, parking Chinese warships in their Chinese funded ports.

I would think that the threat is.

I would think that the threat is.

Greater than we would like, but perhaps less than we think because on the one hand, you wishful thinking would be that all these Pacific nations have strong historical ties with Australia and its allies, and therefore it's very hard to break those relationships. I think that's wishful thinking. But on the other hand, if we look at Pacific island governments, there's been a history of political leaders that deal with things in a very transactional basis, not a similar to the Chinese, and so in that so they can be bought, yeah, yeah, But then you can say that.

Greater than we would like, but perhaps less than we think because on the one hand, you wishful thinking would be that all these Pacific nations have strong historical ties with Australia and its allies, and therefore it's very hard to break those relationships. I think that's wishful thinking. But on the other hand, if we look at Pacific island governments, there's been a history of political leaders that deal with things in a very transactional basis, not a similar to the Chinese, and so in that so they can be bought, yeah, yeah, But then you can say that.

But on the other hand, you can also say, well, they can be flipped.

But on the other hand, you can also say, well, they can be flipped.

Back again, that's right. So they're not going to be ideologically loyal to child whoever gives them the biggest deal, the best.

Back again, that's right. So they're not going to be ideologically loyal to child whoever gives them the biggest deal, the best.

So we've got increasingly I suspect we've got to think of our region as one where our hitherto friends and allies are going to be driven by their immediate interests and what's in it for them, and understandably so on one level, and that they will neither quite be forever friends or forever enemies, and on.

So we've got increasingly I suspect we've got to think of our region as one where our hitherto friends and allies are going to be driven by their immediate interests and what's in it for them, and understandably so on one level, and that they will neither quite be forever friends or forever enemies, and on.

The sort of bigger international picture. Even as we speak now, there seems to be escalating tensions between China and the US. We know that Donald Trump is prepared to launch a trade war against China and is doing that. China is responding saying it's prepared for any kind of war and it will and you know it is never going to back down, obviously, this is what it is going to say. How real do you think the prospect is any kind of armed conflict between these two powers? You know, more likely I imagine as a sort of proxy war over something like Taiwan or I mean, how worried are you about things escalating?

The sort of bigger international picture. Even as we speak now, there seems to be escalating tensions between China and the US. We know that Donald Trump is prepared to launch a trade war against China and is doing that. China is responding saying it's prepared for any kind of war and it will and you know it is never going to back down, obviously, this is what it is going to say. How real do you think the prospect is any kind of armed conflict between these two powers? You know, more likely I imagine as a sort of proxy war over something like Taiwan or I mean, how worried are you about things escalating?

I'm very concerned because I feel that what the US is doing with Europe allows China and its allies Russia to say, well, hey, let's open up two fronts here. Okay, we'll open up one big front in Europe, and that leaves the US vulnerable in the Pacific and they'll be very stretched, and China can do that thing in the Pacific, and maybe the US can't tend to two places at once. And plus, because the current US administration has been going after it's hitherto allies as well query whether if anything were to happen in the Pacific there would be the same level of willingness to work with the US on some.

I'm very concerned because I feel that what the US is doing with Europe allows China and its allies Russia to say, well, hey, let's open up two fronts here. Okay, we'll open up one big front in Europe, and that leaves the US vulnerable in the Pacific and they'll be very stretched, and China can do that thing in the Pacific, and maybe the US can't tend to two places at once. And plus, because the current US administration has been going after it's hitherto allies as well query whether if anything were to happen in the Pacific there would be the same level of willingness to work with the US on some.

Of these issues.

Of these issues.

We're still at a more fundamental level what we've witnessed in the last week in relation to Ukraine. I know just even just looking at Chinese language social media that a lot of Taiwanese are very nervous about the US's intentions when it comes to what would happen to Taiwan if China were to invade there?

We're still at a more fundamental level what we've witnessed in the last week in relation to Ukraine. I know just even just looking at Chinese language social media that a lot of Taiwanese are very nervous about the US's intentions when it comes to what would happen to Taiwan if China were to invade there?

You go yeah.

You go yeah.

Likewise, And just finally, Kevin, what do you think is the best strategy for Australia to adopt in dealing with China. Do we need to be stronger or do we need to accept that these are things we are just going to have to tolerate. Do we hopefully wait for their economy to slow down on their population bubble to burst?

Likewise, And just finally, Kevin, what do you think is the best strategy for Australia to adopt in dealing with China. Do we need to be stronger or do we need to accept that these are things we are just going to have to tolerate. Do we hopefully wait for their economy to slow down on their population bubble to burst?

How do how do we face this threat? How do we deal with it?

How do how do we face this threat? How do we deal with it?

There are different levels in relation to all of this.

There are different levels in relation to all of this.

On the economic front, I know that there's been a lot of talk about diversification away from China and how easy or hard it might be. The reality is that whether or not China is a threat, diversification is inevitable because the Chinese economy is going through a structural slowdown. Whether they're a friend or a foe, if they can no longer afford to buy your stuff, you've got to find other customers.

On the economic front, I know that there's been a lot of talk about diversification away from China and how easy or hard it might be. The reality is that whether or not China is a threat, diversification is inevitable because the Chinese economy is going through a structural slowdown. Whether they're a friend or a foe, if they can no longer afford to buy your stuff, you've got to find other customers.

Yeah, right, Helloweenia.

Yeah, right, Helloweenia.

On the more sort of security side of things, I guess what Australia needs to do would be a little bit like what say owners of night clubs need to do when they deal with organized crime that want to extract.

On the more sort of security side of things, I guess what Australia needs to do would be a little bit like what say owners of night clubs need to do when they deal with organized crime that want to extract.

Stuff out of them.

Stuff out of them.

In terms of security consultancy agreement, send the light.

In terms of security consultancy agreement, send the light.

You've got to the world's full of nasty people.

You've got to the world's full of nasty people.

You can't say, oh, I'm never going to deal with them, but you've got to be very clear eyed about what they are. Like the nightclub owner would be about you know what gangs they're dealing with?

You can't say, oh, I'm never going to deal with them, but you've got to be very clear eyed about what they are. Like the nightclub owner would be about you know what gangs they're dealing with?

Right, treat China.

Right, treat China.

Well.

Well.

Treat the Chinese Communist Party like the math FIA. You know, you know, sometimes you can't avoid them, but always be very wary of them.

Treat the Chinese Communist Party like the math FIA. You know, you know, sometimes you can't avoid them, but always be very wary of them.

That is a very very strong and wise piece of advice, Kevin Yam. I could talk about you and talk with you forever about this, but we have to go. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you, and that's all we have time for this week. Thank you so much for your company as always. God, I love it, God, I love you always having a good time. And I know you are too. I know you just there listening God. If you'd like to express that in another way, you can always leave us a rating, You can leave us a review. You can no longer access me on any form of side social media. I've basically been hacked int of my life.

That is a very very strong and wise piece of advice, Kevin Yam. I could talk about you and talk with you forever about this, but we have to go. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you, and that's all we have time for this week. Thank you so much for your company as always. God, I love it, God, I love you always having a good time. And I know you are too. I know you just there listening God. If you'd like to express that in another way, you can always leave us a rating, You can leave us a review. You can no longer access me on any form of side social media. I've basically been hacked int of my life.

I don't know where I am or what I'm doing.

I don't know where I am or what I'm doing.

I don't know my password for my Facebook, can't get into my Instagram account. I look at Twitter, but that's only for the lols. But you can send us an email at the Real Story at Nova Podcasts dot com dot au, and of course you can read me in all the news. Court Master heads around the country every Monday and every Saturday. Leave a comment there if you want, no, say hello, and you can always just come back and listen to me next week and we can come in there. See then, am I wrong? No, you're not wrong.

I don't know my password for my Facebook, can't get into my Instagram account. I look at Twitter, but that's only for the lols. But you can send us an email at the Real Story at Nova Podcasts dot com dot au, and of course you can read me in all the news. Court Master heads around the country every Monday and every Saturday. Leave a comment there if you want, no, say hello, and you can always just come back and listen to me next week and we can come in there. See then, am I wrong? No, you're not wrong.

Am I wrong? You're not wrong, Walter, You're just an asshole. Okay then

Am I wrong? You're not wrong, Walter, You're just an asshole. Okay then