This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria unveil Nate’s 2024 election model. (The forecast is bad news for Maria.) Also, they explain what insurance industry troubles tell us about the market for risk. And they discuss some key mistakes people make when thinking about risk.

Further Reading:

“Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast” by Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

“Climate Change Has Hit Home Insurance. Is Health Insurance Next?” from the Wall Street Journal

“The Home Insurance Crunch: See What’s Happening in Your State” from the New York Times

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver

This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria unveil Nate’s 2024 election model. (The forecast is bad news for Maria.) Also, they explain what insurance industry troubles tell us about the market for risk. And they discuss some key mistakes people make when thinking about risk.
Further Reading:
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model">“Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast”</a> by Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-has-hit-home-insurance-is-health-insurance-next-e97aaab6">“Climate Change Has Hit Home Insurance. Is Health Insurance Next?”</a> from the Wall Street Journal
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/climate/home-insurance-profit-us-states-weather.html">“The Home Insurance Crunch: See What’s Happening in Your State”</a> from the New York Times
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">“The Leap”</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">“Silver Bulletin”</a> from Nate Silver

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.

Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.

Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.

Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Nate’s Election Model, the Trouble with Insurance, and How People Get Risk Wrong

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/73513311-ddf1-4e60-af18-b19b015cfc2d/transcript

In this bonus episode, Nate and Maria discuss last night’s debate between President Biden and former President Trump. They argue that Biden should drop out of the race, and discuss what might happen if he does.

Further Reading:

“Joe Biden Should Drop Out” from Silver Bulletin

“CNN Presidential Debate: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump” from CNN

“Important Post Debate Analysis" from X user @drewjanda 

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver 

In this bonus episode, Nate and Maria discuss last night’s debate between President Biden and former President Trump. They argue that Biden should drop out of the race, and discuss what might happen if he does.
Further Reading:
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/joe-biden-should-drop-out">“Joe Biden Should Drop Out”</a> from Silver Bulletin
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-v-8wJkmwBY">“CNN Presidential Debate: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump”</a> from CNN
<a href="https://x.com/drewjanda/status/1806497712969584681">“Important Post Debate Analysis"</a> from X user @drewjanda 
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">“The Leap”</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">“Silver Bulletin”</a> from Nate Silver

The President Has No Clothes: Biden Should Drop Out

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/29b72fc3-0549-499d-b949-b19d016d6034/transcript

This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss the reasoning behind Macron’s decision to hold early elections in France, how heat waves could help communicate the reality of climate change, and what we can learn from the impending sriracha shortage. The theme that ties it all together: How to think about long-term risk.

Further Reading:

“The stakes are high in Macron’s gamble” from the Financial Times

“What A Sriracha Shortage Teaches Us About Supply Chains” from Forbes

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver 

This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss the reasoning behind Macron’s decision to hold early elections in France, how heat waves could help communicate the reality of climate change, and what we can learn from the impending sriracha shortage. The theme that ties it all together: How to think about long-term risk.
Further Reading:
<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/077a3fec-952b-4834-9d28-04a0333f5c50">“The stakes are high in Macron’s gamble”</a> from the Financial Times
<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/katevitasek/2024/05/09/future-sriracha-shortage-shows-need-for-trust-with-supply-chain-partners/">“What A Sriracha Shortage Teaches Us About Supply Chains”</a> from Forbes
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">“The Leap”</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">“Silver Bulletin”</a> from Nate Silver

Snap Elections, Global Warming, and Maria’s Favorite Hot Sauce

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/53deac15-7aa5-437e-a35b-b1940024bd86/transcript

This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss whether Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor should retire, the perils of sports betting among professional athletes, and what the return of Roaring Kitty means for traditional market analysis. 

Further Reading:

“Sonia Sotomayor Should Retire Now” from The Atlantic

“Should Sonia Sotomayor Retire?” from Slate

“MLB bans Padres’ Tucupita Marcano permanently for betting on baseball” from the NYT

“Lifetime bans and careers in tatters – recent sports betting scandals show how fringe players are vulnerable” from CBC

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver

This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss whether Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor should retire, the perils of sports betting among professional athletes, and what the return of Roaring Kitty means for traditional market analysis. 
Further Reading:
<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/03/sonia-sotomayor-should-retire/677764/">“Sonia Sotomayor Should Retire Now”</a> from The Atlantic
<a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/04/justice-sotomayor-retirement-calls-sexism.html">“Should Sonia Sotomayor Retire?”</a> from Slate
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5539792/2024/06/04/tucupita-marcano-permanent-ban-mlb-sports-betting/">“MLB bans Padres’ Tucupita Marcano permanently for betting on baseball”</a> from the NYT
<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sports-gambling-scandal-fringe-players-1.7227653">“Lifetime bans and careers in tatters – recent sports betting scandals show how fringe players are vulnerable”</a> from CBC
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">“The Leap”</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">“Silver Bulletin”</a> from Nate Silver

Lifetime Terms, Lifetime Bans, and the Return of Roaring Kitty

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/d3975242-2f37-4e89-9c67-b18d0175d042/transcript

Nate’s Election Model, the Trouble with Insurance, and How People Get Risk Wrong

In 1 playlist(s)

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Social links

Follow podcast

Recent clips