The President Has No Clothes: Biden Should Drop Out
In this bonus episode, Nate and Maria discuss last night’s debate between President Biden and former President Trump. They argue that Biden should drop out of the race, and discuss what might happen if he does. Further Reading: “Joe Biden Should Drop Out” from Silver Bulletin “CNN Presidential D…
Nate’s Election Model, the Trouble with Insurance, and How People Get Risk Wrong
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria unveil Nate’s 2024 election model. (The forecast is bad news for Maria.) Also, they explain what insurance industry troubles tell us about the market for risk. And they discuss some key mistakes people make when thinking about risk. Further Reading: “Si…
Snap Elections, Global Warming, and Maria’s Favorite Hot Sauce
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss the reasoning behind Macron’s decision to hold early elections in France, how heat waves could help communicate the reality of climate change, and what we can learn from the impending sriracha shortage. The theme that ties it all together: How to …
Lifetime Terms, Lifetime Bans, and the Return of Roaring Kitty
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss whether Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor should retire, the perils of sports betting among professional athletes, and what the return of Roaring Kitty means for traditional market analysis. Further Reading: “Sonia Sotomayor Should Retire N…
Mistakes and Unknowns: Election Polls, Poker Tournaments, and the NBA Finals
This week on Risky Business, Nate gives his analysis of what Trump’s guilty verdict may mean for the election, Maria shares the biggest mistakes she’s seen at the World Series of Poker so far, and Nate reveals an interesting ripple in the sports betting ecosystem ahead of the NBA Finals. For more …
WSOP Kickoff, Crypto ETFs, and Airfare Refunds
Nate and Maria are in Vegas for the first week of the World Series of Poker. On today’s show, they share their top tips for acing the World Series, explain the politics behind last week’s approval of a new kind of crypto ETF, and unpack new rules for airline delays. Further Reading: “SEC Unexpect…
A Backup for Biden
Nate and Maria start with something light: p(doom) and the possibility that AI will bring about the end of life as we know it. Then, Nate breaks down the news about the presidential debates and makes a shocking recommendation to the Democratic Party. And – most importantly – our hosts preview the u…
Lessons from the Final Table
Welcome to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. Today, Maria has lessons from a poker tournament she recently played in Monte Carlo, where she made it to the final table. Then, Nate discusses what RFK Jr.’s impressive polling numbers could mean for Biden and Trump. And Nate and Ma…
Coming Soon... Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Launching on May 16, Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to person…