Nate and Maria talk through the game theory of how moderate Republican Senators are likely to react to Trump’s controversial cabinet nominees. Then, they discuss the new “Guardian Caps” the NFL has approved to lower the risk of concussion – and explain why most players are deciding not to wear them.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Nate and Maria talk through the game theory of how moderate Republican Senators are likely to react to Trump’s controversial cabinet nominees. Then, they discuss the new “Guardian Caps” the NFL has approved to lower the risk of concussion – and explain why most players are deciding not to wear them.
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

How Senators and NFL Players Make High Risk Decisions

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/8234ec53-4059-417d-98c3-b22e01733bd2/transcript

Nate and Maria discuss the influence of Riverians like Elon Musk on the Trump Administration, and what’s next for Democrats looking ahead to 2026. Then, Maria tells Nate about a few key hands from the penultimate table of the North American Poker Tour Main Event. 

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Nate and Maria discuss the influence of Riverians like Elon Musk on the Trump Administration, and what’s next for Democrats looking ahead to 2026. Then, Maria tells Nate about a few key hands from the penultimate table of the North American Poker Tour Main Event. 
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

Will Trump Bring the River to Washington?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/b2bcc463-ae51-47f7-9e69-b227016e83bb/transcript

Nate and Maria take a closer look at the results of the election. They discuss polling errors, prediction markets, demographic shifts, and campaign strategy. And Nate shares some parting advice for President Biden.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Nate and Maria take a closer look at the results of the election. They discuss polling errors, prediction markets, demographic shifts, and campaign strategy. And Nate shares some parting advice for President Biden.
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

How Trump Won

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/8ef4f6cf-9367-4862-901e-b220017ccc2b/transcript

On the day before the election, Nate gives a final model update, explains the latest polls, and talks about what he’ll be looking for on election day. Then, Maria and Nate trade their predictions and fears for how election day will play out. 

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

On the day before the election, Nate gives a final model update, explains the latest polls, and talks about what he’ll be looking for on election day. Then, Maria and Nate trade their predictions and fears for how election day will play out. 
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

What to Look for on Election Day

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/e8ef16b4-8a48-4e0f-8c29-b21e01709310/transcript

What were the worst and best decisions of this year’s presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of the race.

And of course, we spend some time looking at the model.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

What were the worst and best decisions of this year’s presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of the race. And of course, we spend some time looking at the model.
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

The Worst Decisions of the Harris and Trump (and Biden) Campaigns

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/7e56e3cd-17d7-46f7-b994-b21a000fc1b5/transcript

Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in.

Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, Odd Lots hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign.

Read More at Bloomberg.com:
https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS
https://bloom.bg/3X54rNP

Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096">Odd Lots</a> to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in.
Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, Odd Lots hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign.
Read More at Bloomberg.com: <a href="https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS">https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS</a> <a href="https://bloom.bg/3X54rNP">https://bloom.bg/3X54rNP</a>

Odd Lots: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/ffb4065f-bd21-4390-90c9-b21801476dd7/transcript

This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss the election.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss the election.
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of the 76ers

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/d1ee7775-190b-451b-9bbb-b21300c1117b/transcript

Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment. 

Further Reading:

The Big Announcement

More on Thomas Schelling

More on Stanislav Petrov aka the man who saved the world

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment. 
Further Reading:
<a href="https://www.pokernews.com/news/2024/10/maria-konnikova-wins-bracelet-47131.htm">The Big Announcement</a>
More on <a href="https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Schelling.html">Thomas Schelling</a> 
More on <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/18/551792129/stanislav-petrov-the-man-who-saved-the-world-dies-at-77">Stanislav Petrov</a> aka the man who saved the world
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/073da426-9349-41b2-a826-b20c0018aa15/transcript

Nate and Maria give a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, covering everything from Nate’s $100k gamble on Florida to listener-inspired prop bets. Maria explains why poker bots are shaking up the world of online poker. Plus, Nate and Maria lament the spread of AI “slop” online, and re-evaluate their p(doom) in light of recent developments at OpenAI. 

Further Reading:

Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida? from the Silver Bulletin 

The Russian Bot Army That Conquered Online Poker from Bloomberg

A Further Investigation into the Existence of the BotFarm Corporation from Poker Pro 

Poker-Bots: The Call Is Now Coming From Inside The House from Legal Poker Sites

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Nate and Maria give a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, covering everything from Nate’s $100k gamble on Florida to listener-inspired prop bets. Maria explains why poker bots are shaking up the world of online poker. Plus, Nate and Maria lament the spread of AI “slop” online, and re-evaluate their p(doom) in light of recent developments at OpenAI. 
Further Reading:
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/should-kamala-harris-gamble-on-a">Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida?</a> from the Silver Bulletin 
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-poker-bots-artificial-intelligence-russia/">The Russian Bot Army That Conquered Online Poker</a> from Bloomberg
<a href="https://en.pokerpro.cc/poker-news/a-further-investigation-into-the-existence-of-the-botfarm-corporation/">A Further Investigation into the Existence of the BotFarm Corporation</a> from Poker Pro 
<a href="https://www.legaluspokersites.com/poker-bots/">Poker-Bots: The Call Is Now Coming From Inside The House</a> from Legal Poker Sites
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

The Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to the Election

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/4417676b-9229-4d4a-b9f3-b20301102f52/transcript

Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with other people’s money). They discuss her role – victim? villain? – and how she played out her real-life prisoner’s dilemma. Then, Nate gives an election update, and he and Maria discuss what people can do to influence the election in the final weeks. (Hint: It’s not donating to a presidential campaign.) Plus, Nate and Maria say farewell to two degenerate gamblers who passed away this week.

Further Reading:

Charity Navigator

More on Betsy Paluck’s research

Willy Nelson’s discography

Dana Carvey’s Biden impression from SNL

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with other people’s money). They discuss her role – victim? villain? – and how she played out her real-life prisoner’s dilemma. Then, Nate gives an election update, and he and Maria discuss what people can do to influence the election in the final weeks. (Hint: It’s not donating to a presidential campaign.) Plus, Nate and Maria say farewell to two degenerate gamblers who passed away this week.
Further Reading:
<a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/">Charity Navigator</a> 
More on <a href="https://psychology.princeton.edu/people/elizabeth-levy-paluck">Betsy Paluck’s research</a> 
Willy Nelson’s <a href="https://willienelson.com/collections/music">discography</a> 
Dana Carvey’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg4Z1M_GjhQ">Biden impression</a> from SNL
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

How to Win Bets and Influence Elections

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/06aee805-b1ef-4f21-a8a7-b1fe0013766f/transcript

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.

Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.

Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.

Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

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