Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, our show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova and.

Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, our show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova and.

I'm Nate Silver. Did you say our show or a show?

I'm Nate Silver. Did you say our show or a show?

I said our show, Nate, because it is our show. Sometimes decision say A you know, I like to play around with it the show.

I said our show, Nate, because it is our show. Sometimes decision say A you know, I like to play around with it the show.

How about the show? So I'll tell you how to make better decisions?

How about the show? So I'll tell you how to make better decisions?

This is the show about how to make better decisions. What are we going to be talking about today.

This is the show about how to make better decisions. What are we going to be talking about today.

Night March madness, Maria, March madness. Indeed, it's New York, it's springtime. The weather is improving from mediocre to slightly go to the mediocre. And we're here to watch some basketball and talk about some basketball.

Night March madness, Maria, March madness. Indeed, it's New York, it's springtime. The weather is improving from mediocre to slightly go to the mediocre. And we're here to watch some basketball and talk about some basketball.

Yep.

Yep.

And we're going to start off by talking about some of Nate's models, and then we each made brackets. And I'll also introduce a secret weapon that I used in making my bracket, a certain someone named Monty McNair.

And we're going to start off by talking about some of Nate's models, and then we each made brackets. And I'll also introduce a secret weapon that I used in making my bracket, a certain someone named Monty McNair.

Oh well, so you cheated.

Oh well, so you cheated.

Oh no, I want to not cheat.

Oh no, I want to not cheat.

I do want to McNair.

I do want to McNair.

Nate, I did not cheat. When we don't know how to make a good decision, what do we do? We consult someone with the expertise and the knowledge to help. So I consulted with Monty McNair, who's the GM of the Sacramento Kings and something of a guru when it comes to making March Madness brackets. That full interview is actually going to be on push Can Plus highly recommend that you all listen to it.

Nate, I did not cheat. When we don't know how to make a good decision, what do we do? We consult someone with the expertise and the knowledge to help. So I consulted with Monty McNair, who's the GM of the Sacramento Kings and something of a guru when it comes to making March Madness brackets. That full interview is actually going to be on push Can Plus highly recommend that you all listen to it.

I feel like the politics that's a bit complicated where the woman has to ask it certified basketball expert. Well, I just kind of go the man just you know, uses a regression based model.

I feel like the politics that's a bit complicated where the woman has to ask it certified basketball expert. Well, I just kind of go the man just you know, uses a regression based model.

So that's that's a great segue night, Let's talk about the regression based ELO model. So you released your Marsh Madness models. How did you you know, how did you make them? Kind of what's the thought process behind them? What goes into them?

So that's that's a great segue night, Let's talk about the regression based ELO model. So you released your Marsh Madness models. How did you you know, how did you make them? Kind of what's the thought process behind them? What goes into them?

So some of this like actually literally dates back to two thousand and two or two thousand and three, right where I'm like a junior associate at KPMG. This is an accounting firm. I always was sensitive. I'm you know, it was a consultant at accounting firm, Maria, not an accountant.

So some of this like actually literally dates back to two thousand and two or two thousand and three, right where I'm like a junior associate at KPMG. This is an accounting firm. I always was sensitive. I'm you know, it was a consultant at accounting firm, Maria, not an accountant.

Just so you know, I always forget that you worked at an accounting firm. Every sing such a year, Oh yeah, right.

Just so you know, I always forget that you worked at an accounting firm. Every sing such a year, Oh yeah, right.

Such a weird part of the multiverse where I don't know how the fuck that happened. I don't know, but like it's because I parted too much ching college and then had to didn't really make plans anyway. So a friend who had an office pool had these complicated scoring rules where you get points for upsets, and so I took some other rating system I found and modeled that and did a little simulation. Actually it's not a simulations, it's not deterministic exactly, but like, there are only sixty seven games, so you can kind of explicitly do all the conditional probabilities instead of having to rely on a simulation.

Such a weird part of the multiverse where I don't know how the fuck that happened. I don't know, but like it's because I parted too much ching college and then had to didn't really make plans anyway. So a friend who had an office pool had these complicated scoring rules where you get points for upsets, and so I took some other rating system I found and modeled that and did a little simulation. Actually it's not a simulations, it's not deterministic exactly, but like, there are only sixty seven games, so you can kind of explicitly do all the conditional probabilities instead of having to rely on a simulation.

Right, just a.

Right, just a.

Technical detail, but it's evolved from there. I think when I was at the New York Times in twenty twelve, I did a big evaluation looking at all these different computer models, all these other different ways to predict the tournament, and found kind of very empirically which did best in predicting tournament games. So a couple of things that if you if you've ever made a model, might sound familiar, right. You know, first, almost always taking a consensus of indicators is better than any one indicator, right, So we wound up with a blend of like five different rating systems, all which do a little differently. Accounting for injuries is very important. You know, you don't want to ignore the fact that Cooper Flag, maybe the best player in the NCAAA, at least the best freshman the nca IS year, got hurt during a tournament. He seems to be helping now, but if he were to be heard, that would gravely impact Duke's prospects.

Technical detail, but it's evolved from there. I think when I was at the New York Times in twenty twelve, I did a big evaluation looking at all these different computer models, all these other different ways to predict the tournament, and found kind of very empirically which did best in predicting tournament games. So a couple of things that if you if you've ever made a model, might sound familiar, right. You know, first, almost always taking a consensus of indicators is better than any one indicator, right, So we wound up with a blend of like five different rating systems, all which do a little differently. Accounting for injuries is very important. You know, you don't want to ignore the fact that Cooper Flag, maybe the best player in the NCAAA, at least the best freshman the nca IS year, got hurt during a tournament. He seems to be helping now, but if he were to be heard, that would gravely impact Duke's prospects.

So we account for that.

So we account for that.

And then also we found that, like there's reversion to the mean, meaning that you play roughly thirty three games or something in a college basketball regular season, not all that biggest samples some of us are against crappy competition, you know from you know, Southwestern State, University prep or whatever. Right, So we looked at pre season rankings as well as part of what we factored into the formula. Sometimes seems that underachieve have actually gotten a little bit unlucky, so believe it or not, giving human ratings some component actually helps a little bit, and this proved to be a popular feature. But like more recently, I began making my own rating system that kind of incorporates some of these different ideas. Right, So are you familiar with ELO ratings. I know some of our readers listeners might be.

And then also we found that, like there's reversion to the mean, meaning that you play roughly thirty three games or something in a college basketball regular season, not all that biggest samples some of us are against crappy competition, you know from you know, Southwestern State, University prep or whatever. Right, So we looked at pre season rankings as well as part of what we factored into the formula. Sometimes seems that underachieve have actually gotten a little bit unlucky, so believe it or not, giving human ratings some component actually helps a little bit, and this proved to be a popular feature. But like more recently, I began making my own rating system that kind of incorporates some of these different ideas. Right, So are you familiar with ELO ratings. I know some of our readers listeners might be.

I should say, well, let's for people who are not familiar. Of course, I personally am very you're familiar with the writings. But for those of us who might not be, why don't we explain.

I should say, well, let's for people who are not familiar. Of course, I personally am very you're familiar with the writings. But for those of us who might not be, why don't we explain.

It a little bit?

It a little bit?

So ELO was designed by let me look at the guys, it's like arpanned Elo, or let me look, it's Hungarian. Probably the Hungarians are quite promiscuous within in kind of this era of intellectual history, are bad Elo a Hungarian American physics professor. But it's a formula where you are adjusting your rating constantly based on whether you beat your opponent, of course, and how good your opponent is. Right, So if I have an ELI rating of a nineteen hundred, and I don't know if that's good in chess, it's probably pretty good. Right, And you're a fourteen hundred, Maria, right, fifteen hundreds, average of four hundreds whatever, mediocre, I barely get any credit because you kind of already forecast to the win.

So ELO was designed by let me look at the guys, it's like arpanned Elo, or let me look, it's Hungarian. Probably the Hungarians are quite promiscuous within in kind of this era of intellectual history, are bad Elo a Hungarian American physics professor. But it's a formula where you are adjusting your rating constantly based on whether you beat your opponent, of course, and how good your opponent is. Right, So if I have an ELI rating of a nineteen hundred, and I don't know if that's good in chess, it's probably pretty good. Right, And you're a fourteen hundred, Maria, right, fifteen hundreds, average of four hundreds whatever, mediocre, I barely get any credit because you kind of already forecast to the win.

Right.

Right.

If I'm a nineteen hundred and I beat Magnus Carlson, who's a twenty one, I'm just guessing you might know. Then I get a lot of credit because I've beaten a stronger opponent.

If I'm a nineteen hundred and I beat Magnus Carlson, who's a twenty one, I'm just guessing you might know. Then I get a lot of credit because I've beaten a stronger opponent.

So twenty eight thirty three night as Magnus's.

So twenty eight thirty three night as Magnus's.

Twenty eighth ro' oh my, that's embarrassing. See in basketball, they only get to like twenty two hundred or something, right, And so I'm like, is Magnus Carlson better at chess.

Twenty eighth ro' oh my, that's embarrassing. See in basketball, they only get to like twenty two hundred or something, right, And so I'm like, is Magnus Carlson better at chess.

Tha twenty eight thirty three? His peak rating was twenty eight eighty two.

Tha twenty eight thirty three? His peak rating was twenty eight eighty two.

Okay, that's pretty that's pretty good. I think I'm like a nine hundred or something. But so anyway, we adapted the ELO ratings. Actually other people have done this, but we adapted it first the NFL and then to college basketball. But there are a few twists in ELO. Originally just about the winner loss, right, we also count for the margin of victory. In basketball, we account for home court advantage in kind of an increasingly complicated way. We account for travel distance, so if you fly across the country, your jet lag and so forth. This actually shows up in in performance by the way different teams have different home court advantages. It turns out actually that having like a larger crowd actually helps.

Okay, that's pretty that's pretty good. I think I'm like a nine hundred or something. But so anyway, we adapted the ELO ratings. Actually other people have done this, but we adapted it first the NFL and then to college basketball. But there are a few twists in ELO. Originally just about the winner loss, right, we also count for the margin of victory. In basketball, we account for home court advantage in kind of an increasingly complicated way. We account for travel distance, so if you fly across the country, your jet lag and so forth. This actually shows up in in performance by the way different teams have different home court advantages. It turns out actually that having like a larger crowd actually helps.

I was trying to model this the other day.

I was trying to model this the other day.

You know you for every ten thousand fans show up, teams score roughly in additional point, that's right.

You know you for every ten thousand fans show up, teams score roughly in additional point, that's right.

That's absolutely fascinating, saying, yeah.

That's absolutely fascinating, saying, yeah.

So you're that's for I do that for women for men, if it's different women's because they have some teams are more popular than men's teams, and some like literally draw you know, twelve people, right, But yeah, the teams that actually have people watching do a little better in their home games controlling for other factors.

So you're that's for I do that for women for men, if it's different women's because they have some teams are more popular than men's teams, and some like literally draw you know, twelve people, right, But yeah, the teams that actually have people watching do a little better in their home games controlling for other factors.

So I love that you're able to account for these things that might seem kind of more ineffable, right, like like home court advantages, more psychological and more physical like injury risks. How much is like how much of model distinctions? And like your model versus other models is kind of a little bit more subjective, like as you said, the human touch versus kind of the big data crunching. I'm just curious, from like a from a psychologist's standpoint, what the balance is there?

So I love that you're able to account for these things that might seem kind of more ineffable, right, like like home court advantages, more psychological and more physical like injury risks. How much is like how much of model distinctions? And like your model versus other models is kind of a little bit more subjective, like as you said, the human touch versus kind of the big data crunching. I'm just curious, from like a from a psychologist's standpoint, what the balance is there?

So are you saying when I make a bracket or like, when.

So are you saying when I make a bracket or like, when.

I'm billion, you're actually building the model.

I'm billion, you're actually building the model.

Look, inherently models, you have a lot of different choices you can make. But like, because you have like i'd say, this is like less subjective than some of the other models I've built because you have a lot of data and elo is relatively simple. Right, there are only so many knobs you might have to press, versus more open ended problems.

Look, inherently models, you have a lot of different choices you can make. But like, because you have like i'd say, this is like less subjective than some of the other models I've built because you have a lot of data and elo is relatively simple. Right, there are only so many knobs you might have to press, versus more open ended problems.

Right.

Right.

But yeah, in general, like with politics election models that you know, those get to be a little bit more art than science. Not in the sense because people mistake this. Not in the sense that I am like subjectively changing out once the model is designed, but like, but the design questions are harder. And also, you know, so one thing you look at in basketball too, is like how do the parameters of the game change over time?

But yeah, in general, like with politics election models that you know, those get to be a little bit more art than science. Not in the sense because people mistake this. Not in the sense that I am like subjectively changing out once the model is designed, but like, but the design questions are harder. And also, you know, so one thing you look at in basketball too, is like how do the parameters of the game change over time?

So one thing we do is like, in.

So one thing we do is like, in.

Between seasons, how you did last season? Provide some information obviously, right, you know Connecticut was a national champion last year, had a very good year. Right, you wouldn't just toss them in a hat versus you know, writer or Canisius or one of these small schools.

Between seasons, how you did last season? Provide some information obviously, right, you know Connecticut was a national champion last year, had a very good year. Right, you wouldn't just toss them in a hat versus you know, writer or Canisius or one of these small schools.

I now have beamed him and I had, you.

I now have beamed him and I had, you.

Know, Youngstown State, Texas, Rio Grand Valley. You know, you you you have some information from the prior season. But because there's so much more player turnover now the best players go pro after one year, it's less continuity than there used to be, right, and so and so you should always be asking questions, right, and like you're billion a model, part of what you're doing is saying, Okay, here's this data. It's been well calibrated on literally what's you know, seventy five years of college basketball history, right, but let's make sure that it's performing as advertised on the past couple of years, right, because after all, if you're then adapting this to make predictions, and that's kind of what people are going to care about, whether you Rectro actually got some game right in nineteen seventy two or whatever. And what we found is that the model had I know, I'm saying we because it's just me at this point. What I found is that the model had become overconfident in the in recent years, right, because it was it was overconfident early in the season before catching up. And that was because it you know, overweighted the impact of last season when if you have a good player, it's going to the NBA anyway, and so and so it doesn't help quite as much and so like, yeah, so this is where like domain knowledge helps, right, because you could just say, well, it's a fairly large sample, but you know, it's been a weird couple of years because of COVID and new rules and stuff like that. Right, But it's like, Okay, we have a good hypothesis for why, for why there's more mean reversion now. But by the way, this has actionable implications.

Know, Youngstown State, Texas, Rio Grand Valley. You know, you you you have some information from the prior season. But because there's so much more player turnover now the best players go pro after one year, it's less continuity than there used to be, right, and so and so you should always be asking questions, right, and like you're billion a model, part of what you're doing is saying, Okay, here's this data. It's been well calibrated on literally what's you know, seventy five years of college basketball history, right, but let's make sure that it's performing as advertised on the past couple of years, right, because after all, if you're then adapting this to make predictions, and that's kind of what people are going to care about, whether you Rectro actually got some game right in nineteen seventy two or whatever. And what we found is that the model had I know, I'm saying we because it's just me at this point. What I found is that the model had become overconfident in the in recent years, right, because it was it was overconfident early in the season before catching up. And that was because it you know, overweighted the impact of last season when if you have a good player, it's going to the NBA anyway, and so and so it doesn't help quite as much and so like, yeah, so this is where like domain knowledge helps, right, because you could just say, well, it's a fairly large sample, but you know, it's been a weird couple of years because of COVID and new rules and stuff like that. Right, But it's like, Okay, we have a good hypothesis for why, for why there's more mean reversion now. But by the way, this has actionable implications.

Where Okay, so.

Where Okay, so.

For our tournament model, which is related to this ELO model, but we combined with other systems. I found myself I do literally make bets based on these, right, And I found myself betting a lot of underdogs to cover the spread in the men's game, but not in the women's game interestingly, right, because women you can't join the WNBA until you're age twenty two, I think, which seems fucking insane to me, Like, how was that legal? By the way, that is very strange.

For our tournament model, which is related to this ELO model, but we combined with other systems. I found myself I do literally make bets based on these, right, And I found myself betting a lot of underdogs to cover the spread in the men's game, but not in the women's game interestingly, right, because women you can't join the WNBA until you're age twenty two, I think, which seems fucking insane to me, Like, how was that legal? By the way, that is very strange.

I don't understand.

I don't understand.

Yeah, the politics THEWWA, you know, it's a whole other segment. But yeah, the teams are still as strong as ever, and so you have less reversion from year to year. So basically for lots of reasons, and the fact that like you know, for a long time in the women's game, they were like, you know, somewhere between a half dozen and two dozen schools. It took women's basketball really seriously, and then some where it just like you go out with a clipboard and say, hey, who wants to play? Right, And so it's almost like professional versus amateur. Now it's become much more popular. There's more money in the sport, more young women are playing the sport, right, But still it's more it's much more lopsided, right, And so you know, so I found and now I'm giving away and replaces my bet. So too late, right, But yeah, so I've ad also fitting a lot of favorites in women's basketball and a lot of underdogs in men's basketball, because there's been more mean reversion in men's basketball.

Yeah, the politics THEWWA, you know, it's a whole other segment. But yeah, the teams are still as strong as ever, and so you have less reversion from year to year. So basically for lots of reasons, and the fact that like you know, for a long time in the women's game, they were like, you know, somewhere between a half dozen and two dozen schools. It took women's basketball really seriously, and then some where it just like you go out with a clipboard and say, hey, who wants to play? Right, And so it's almost like professional versus amateur. Now it's become much more popular. There's more money in the sport, more young women are playing the sport, right, But still it's more it's much more lopsided, right, And so you know, so I found and now I'm giving away and replaces my bet. So too late, right, But yeah, so I've ad also fitting a lot of favorites in women's basketball and a lot of underdogs in men's basketball, because there's been more mean reversion in men's basketball.

And I don't think that.

And I don't think that.

The models are that the odds are accounting for this enough, although you know, we'll see I'm putting my money where my mouth is at least.

The models are that the odds are accounting for this enough, although you know, we'll see I'm putting my money where my mouth is at least.

Yeah, they're just settle things too.

Yeah, they're just settle things too.

Like you know, big teams that draw huge audiences and have very enthusiastic fans and good in game presentation and nice locker rooms, right, they have a bigger home court advantage which makes their rating look better. But you're playing the NCAA tournament on neutral sites instead, so there have actually been quite a few upsets in the tournament in recent years. So yeah, all this is kind of you know, so that's why it's like, this is what I hate when like academics are like, well you a sports model, election Wedell, this isn't not real science, Like it's actually better science. Sure, because you're like, now I sound like a fucking asshole, but no, but you're like you it's it's still like hypothesis driven, right, you're looking at the real world.

Like you know, big teams that draw huge audiences and have very enthusiastic fans and good in game presentation and nice locker rooms, right, they have a bigger home court advantage which makes their rating look better. But you're playing the NCAA tournament on neutral sites instead, so there have actually been quite a few upsets in the tournament in recent years. So yeah, all this is kind of you know, so that's why it's like, this is what I hate when like academics are like, well you a sports model, election Wedell, this isn't not real science, Like it's actually better science. Sure, because you're like, now I sound like a fucking asshole, but no, but you're like you it's it's still like hypothesis driven, right, you're looking at the real world.

You're just actually willing.

You're just actually willing.

To test these ideas in the form of of making predictions, in some cases even betting on these predictions.

To test these ideas in the form of of making predictions, in some cases even betting on these predictions.

No, that that makes perfect sense. And do I understand correctly that you actually have two versions of your model, one that's elo based and one that's a Bayesian elo version.

No, that that makes perfect sense. And do I understand correctly that you actually have two versions of your model, one that's elo based and one that's a Bayesian elo version.

Is that right? Abazing just because I'm a Doric, right, But so in the Baysing version, like I said before, you uh, the new season begins in the team is kind of the same and kind of a different team.

Is that right? Abazing just because I'm a Doric, right, But so in the Baysing version, like I said before, you uh, the new season begins in the team is kind of the same and kind of a different team.

Right.

Right.

In the original version, it reverts to the mean based on the other teams in your conference, right, because there are clearly differences between like you know, whatever, the ACC and the IVY in the Basing version, then we give weight to the human poles. Instead, we look at the preseason top twenty five. We assume that these people are evaluating recruitment and player aging and Injuriason all this stuff, right, and so we revert based on that instead. It turns out actually that like you do best with a blend of you know, because the humans can add or subtract, they can introduce biases that aren't helpful, right, So it's really it's really kind of a what we call base is really like a blend of the original version and kind of a pure Bayse version. So that accounts for like preseason makings in the human poles, and that has interesting implications.

In the original version, it reverts to the mean based on the other teams in your conference, right, because there are clearly differences between like you know, whatever, the ACC and the IVY in the Basing version, then we give weight to the human poles. Instead, we look at the preseason top twenty five. We assume that these people are evaluating recruitment and player aging and Injuriason all this stuff, right, and so we revert based on that instead. It turns out actually that like you do best with a blend of you know, because the humans can add or subtract, they can introduce biases that aren't helpful, right, So it's really it's really kind of a what we call base is really like a blend of the original version and kind of a pure Bayse version. So that accounts for like preseason makings in the human poles, and that has interesting implications.

Do they have the same results this year or not? Do your two models differ?

Do they have the same results this year or not? Do your two models differ?

Yeah, let me show you it's actually not? Or is it pretty similar that different?

Yeah, let me show you it's actually not? Or is it pretty similar that different?

I mean, for.

I mean, for.

So the Basing version has Duke as the best team and the pure version has Floored as the best team. Now these are all within like a few points. It's a very minor difference, right, But like you're counting for like that you're basic kind of counting for like the historical reputation of Duke that gets boosted in these human polls.

So the Basing version has Duke as the best team and the pure version has Floored as the best team. Now these are all within like a few points. It's a very minor difference, right, But like you're counting for like that you're basic kind of counting for like the historical reputation of Duke that gets boosted in these human polls.

Got it.

Got it.

Well, that's all super interesting, Nate. So let's see what the results show when it comes to actually choosing brackets. So you got to use all of your models. I did not, but I got to use a Monte McNair. So I got to use a human and after the breaks, let's see how it all turns out. Nay, I have a confession to make. I have never filled out an NC double a bracket until now.

Well, that's all super interesting, Nate. So let's see what the results show when it comes to actually choosing brackets. So you got to use all of your models. I did not, but I got to use a Monte McNair. So I got to use a human and after the breaks, let's see how it all turns out. Nay, I have a confession to make. I have never filled out an NC double a bracket until now.

Ria.

Ria.

This is my first ever bracket and.

This is my first ever bracket and.

We're still allowing on a show.

We're still allowing on a show.

Come on, So this is my first ever bracket.

Come on, So this is my first ever bracket.

But how can you never filled out a bracket?

But how can you never filled out a bracket?

I've never filled out a bracket, Nate, I confess, I confess.

I've never filled out a bracket, Nate, I confess, I confess.

You know I've never done yoga.

You know I've never done yoga.

Oh there you go, Nate. How could you have never done yoga?

Oh there you go, Nate. How could you have never done yoga?

It feels never the gender stereotype being here. I don't know, but like it's like something you think you would have done once.

It feels never the gender stereotype being here. I don't know, but like it's like something you think you would have done once.

Right, Okay, Nate, I will I will ever do yoga with you. And now that I filled.

Right, Okay, Nate, I will I will ever do yoga with you. And now that I filled.

Out our bracket, okay, yeah.

Out our bracket, okay, yeah.

So so I actually you have your bracket right, and it's probably a normal bracket. I have two brackets, so Here's here's what I did. So first, I know nothing you know about NCAA basketball. I never filled out a bracket before. So I did a bracket based on vibes. So I didn't even look at the at how teams were ranked, didn't look at their record, didn't look at any data whatsoever, and just like went on a totally vibe based like who do I like? What sounds better? What state do I like better? Where's the weather better? Just just random things like that, my ViBe's bracket night. Do you want to guess who won at the end? Who I have winning the whole thing?

So so I actually you have your bracket right, and it's probably a normal bracket. I have two brackets, so Here's here's what I did. So first, I know nothing you know about NCAA basketball. I never filled out a bracket before. So I did a bracket based on vibes. So I didn't even look at the at how teams were ranked, didn't look at their record, didn't look at any data whatsoever, and just like went on a totally vibe based like who do I like? What sounds better? What state do I like better? Where's the weather better? Just just random things like that, my ViBe's bracket night. Do you want to guess who won at the end? Who I have winning the whole thing?

H Yale?

H Yale?

No, I'm a Harvard grad.

No, I'm a Harvard grad.

Okay, it doesn't make sense. I don't.

Okay, it doesn't make sense. I don't.

Uh, who would This is a weird what's it like? Laden?

Uh, who would This is a weird what's it like? Laden?

Like? What would Maria think? Is exactly?

Like? What would Maria think? Is exactly?

This is a perfect psychology experiment.

This is a perfect psychology experiment.

Uh, give me give me a hint.

Uh, give me give me a hint.

You weren't You weren't that far off when you said Yale in terms of the types of things I was thinking about. But it was a place. It's so it was an emotional based decision, all right.

You weren't You weren't that far off when you said Yale in terms of the types of things I was thinking about. But it was a place. It's so it was an emotional based decision, all right.

Okay, So one thing is, are you enough of a college basketball fan to know that you're supposed to hate Duke.

Okay, So one thing is, are you enough of a college basketball fan to know that you're supposed to hate Duke.

Yes, okay, okay, because.

Yes, okay, okay, because.

That's you know, that's like the point he headad like by the way I was out, Uh, I don't know. I was out with my partner last Saturday, and we'll at least is maybe really too much? Like why is everyone in this bar so so white? Because it's New York and it's a big bar and usually and it's because the New Game was fun?

That's you know, that's like the point he headad like by the way I was out, Uh, I don't know. I was out with my partner last Saturday, and we'll at least is maybe really too much? Like why is everyone in this bar so so white? Because it's New York and it's a big bar and usually and it's because the New Game was fun?

That's funny. But okay, so, so do you give up? Should I just tell you? Let me give give me one more, one more guess?

That's funny. But okay, so, so do you give up? Should I just tell you? Let me give give me one more, one more guess?

Okay, Saint John's no is there a New York guess? Or not? Maybe? I think, Yeah, I guess you're not really like it. I mean, you were live in New York. You don't like it New York born and bread.

Okay, Saint John's no is there a New York guess? Or not? Maybe? I think, Yeah, I guess you're not really like it. I mean, you were live in New York. You don't like it New York born and bread.

Okay, I give up?

Okay, I give up?

All right? So I had you're gonna laugh. I'm curious to hear your reaction. I had U c l A winning because I felt bad for LA and the wildfires, and I felt like they needed something good to happen to them.

All right? So I had you're gonna laugh. I'm curious to hear your reaction. I had U c l A winning because I felt bad for LA and the wildfires, and I felt like they needed something good to happen to them.

Okay, you know, I'm generally pro you. So I like that color mix.

Okay, you know, I'm generally pro you. So I like that color mix.

Yeah, there was just UCLA had good vibes and I figured, you know, what let's have them win. So I had UCLA beating Duke in the final four.

Yeah, there was just UCLA had good vibes and I figured, you know, what let's have them win. So I had UCLA beating Duke in the final four.

What seedd UCLA even this year there are seven seed probabilistically, let me let me look up the old silver bulletin forecast and see what it says. So you have an zero point three percent chance of being right? All right, yes, but getting it it's like getting aces right.

What seedd UCLA even this year there are seven seed probabilistically, let me let me look up the old silver bulletin forecast and see what it says. So you have an zero point three percent chance of being right? All right, yes, but getting it it's like getting aces right.

Yeah, absolutely so then okay, So I showed Manty this vibees based bracket and I was like, will you help me correct it? And he was like, dude, we need to start from scratch. So, for listeners who don't know, Monty McNair is the GM of the Sacramento Kings and he went to Princeton and he did his thesis on March Madness and on building brackets. So this is actually what he studied academically. And about eight or nine years ago he came in second in the Cagle bracket contest. So this is someone who is really really good at making brackets. And I asked Monty kind of how he would go about doing this. And Monty has his own models as well, by the way, So let's actually listen to a brief clip of that conversation. And then we'll talk about what the resulting bracket looks like, and we'll talk about your bracket night.

Yeah, absolutely so then okay, So I showed Manty this vibees based bracket and I was like, will you help me correct it? And he was like, dude, we need to start from scratch. So, for listeners who don't know, Monty McNair is the GM of the Sacramento Kings and he went to Princeton and he did his thesis on March Madness and on building brackets. So this is actually what he studied academically. And about eight or nine years ago he came in second in the Cagle bracket contest. So this is someone who is really really good at making brackets. And I asked Monty kind of how he would go about doing this. And Monty has his own models as well, by the way, So let's actually listen to a brief clip of that conversation. And then we'll talk about what the resulting bracket looks like, and we'll talk about your bracket night.

I would start with a clean slate, no offense to your ECLA Champion bracket, and I think first we need to set our.

I would start with a clean slate, no offense to your ECLA Champion bracket, and I think first we need to set our.

Goal, because that's going to dictate. You know, I'll try it.

Goal, because that's going to dictate. You know, I'll try it.

I'll try not too many tortured poker analogies, but I.

I'll try not too many tortured poker analogies, but I.

No, let's do tortured poker analogies. We live for tortured poker analogies on the show.

No, let's do tortured poker analogies. We live for tortured poker analogies on the show.

Yes, so head to head cash game versus a World Series of Poker tournament, you're going to do different things. I think in your case, really you want to be one person.

Yes, so head to head cash game versus a World Series of Poker tournament, you're going to do different things. I think in your case, really you want to be one person.

Yes, I'm heads up against Nate Silver, and I want to kick his ass. Take that, Nate. There you go, Nate Gottle's been thrown. So so that's I mean, that's kind of where Monty said that, you know, the three things we need to keep in mind are what's our scoring system? Is there going to be anything different for upsets? I was like, no, you know, we're just doing something very straightforward. And then he said, you know how big is your pool? I was like, it's me and Nate that's it. I just want my bracket to do better. And by the way, we will link to my brackets in the show notes, both the official bracket, which is the Manty bracket as I call it, and then my Vibes bracket, so that you guys can just laugh at how funny my Vib's picks are, because, like I said, I looked at absolutely zero data, ignored the rankings, ignored everything, and just went with my gut. So so you'll be able to see both of those. One we hope will win, the other we hope we'll give you a good laugh. And yeah, Monty's are our mutual bracket. I did get to make a few decisions, by the way, there were a few close ones where he said, I got to pick, so I picked sometimes things that he would not have picked, But he said that he stood behind the choices. And we do have Duke winning overall. Nate, how about you? Do you have Duke winning or do you have someone else winning?

Yes, I'm heads up against Nate Silver, and I want to kick his ass. Take that, Nate. There you go, Nate Gottle's been thrown. So so that's I mean, that's kind of where Monty said that, you know, the three things we need to keep in mind are what's our scoring system? Is there going to be anything different for upsets? I was like, no, you know, we're just doing something very straightforward. And then he said, you know how big is your pool? I was like, it's me and Nate that's it. I just want my bracket to do better. And by the way, we will link to my brackets in the show notes, both the official bracket, which is the Manty bracket as I call it, and then my Vibes bracket, so that you guys can just laugh at how funny my Vib's picks are, because, like I said, I looked at absolutely zero data, ignored the rankings, ignored everything, and just went with my gut. So so you'll be able to see both of those. One we hope will win, the other we hope we'll give you a good laugh. And yeah, Monty's are our mutual bracket. I did get to make a few decisions, by the way, there were a few close ones where he said, I got to pick, so I picked sometimes things that he would not have picked, But he said that he stood behind the choices. And we do have Duke winning overall. Nate, how about you? Do you have Duke winning or do you have someone else winning?

Well, I don't. Let's going to make things a little easier for people. Let's give our champion, our final four and then our sweet sixteen. So let's say that we're going to get one point for every Sweet sixteen. Pick that's correct, three points for every final four team that is correct, and then five points were picking the right champion.

Well, I don't. Let's going to make things a little easier for people. Let's give our champion, our final four and then our sweet sixteen. So let's say that we're going to get one point for every Sweet sixteen. Pick that's correct, three points for every final four team that is correct, and then five points were picking the right champion.

Okay, okay, okay.

Okay, okay, okay.

So you want to start in the South region?

So you want to start in the South region?

Uh?

Uh?

Sure, Okay, we should take turns going first because it might influence. So who are your final four in the South?

Sure, Okay, we should take turns going first because it might influence. So who are your final four in the South?

My final four? Let's see Auburn, Texas A and m Iowa State and Michigan State.

My final four? Let's see Auburn, Texas A and m Iowa State and Michigan State.

Okay, so you have the favorites according to the Silver Bulletin model there, I'm gonna I'm gonna just to represent my home state. I'm gonna go Auburn Michigan. I mean, here's here's the thing that bugs me though, Like our model things, Iowa State is underrated but nevertheless the most likely team. But anyway, that's fine. Iowa State and Michigan State. So a lot of Midwest, a lot of mid West there. And then of those four, who do you have emerging into the final four.

Okay, so you have the favorites according to the Silver Bulletin model there, I'm gonna I'm gonna just to represent my home state. I'm gonna go Auburn Michigan. I mean, here's here's the thing that bugs me though, Like our model things, Iowa State is underrated but nevertheless the most likely team. But anyway, that's fine. Iowa State and Michigan State. So a lot of Midwest, a lot of mid West there. And then of those four, who do you have emerging into the final four.

Auburn and Iowa State?

Auburn and Iowa State?

Okays the eight? And then who do you have prevailing? We didn't, we were trying to simplify it. So and then who do you have prevailing between Auburn and Iowa State? Auburn Okay, I also have auburn thing is I have. I have this whole model I design. I'm trying to sell the people, right, I'm not gonna be like, oh, ignore the model. Go to silver Bulletin dot com and get temperature. There's no discounty.

Okays the eight? And then who do you have prevailing? We didn't, we were trying to simplify it. So and then who do you have prevailing between Auburn and Iowa State? Auburn Okay, I also have auburn thing is I have. I have this whole model I design. I'm trying to sell the people, right, I'm not gonna be like, oh, ignore the model. Go to silver Bulletin dot com and get temperature. There's no discounty.

So do you have the same picks as I do other than Michigan.

So do you have the same picks as I do other than Michigan.

Yeah.

Yeah.

In fact, I just had to cheat to over ride my model, which actually at Texas A and M and the same picks you did, just because like, uh, I want some drama for this program. Yea, my model would have made those exact same picks. Okay, let's go to the And.

In fact, I just had to cheat to over ride my model, which actually at Texas A and M and the same picks you did, just because like, uh, I want some drama for this program. Yea, my model would have made those exact same picks. Okay, let's go to the And.

By the way, Michigan versus versus Texas and M was one of those where Monty said that I could actually pick and I did Texas A and M because I thought you would pick Michigan. So I wanted to differentiate myself and I was correct.

By the way, Michigan versus versus Texas and M was one of those where Monty said that I could actually pick and I did Texas A and M because I thought you would pick Michigan. So I wanted to differentiate myself and I was correct.

Now let's go out west where the regional fib we played at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California.

Now let's go out west where the regional fib we played at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California.

I'll go FIRSTUS time.

I'll go FIRSTUS time.

Okay, and here my model is emphatic about these picks.

Okay, and here my model is emphatic about these picks.

I have no choices to make.

I have no choices to make.

I have in the final four, Florida Maryland, Texas Tech and Saint John's. Go even have a choice to make, I mean not really, you know, and then lead eight Florida versus Saint John's. I mean Saint John's versus Kansas. Excuse me, Sint Johns' sex seconds close, but whatever. I live in New York, now, you know. There were some some nice Saint John's kids also at the bar the other day, nice but loud. So I have Florida advancing from the west.

I have in the final four, Florida Maryland, Texas Tech and Saint John's. Go even have a choice to make, I mean not really, you know, and then lead eight Florida versus Saint John's. I mean Saint John's versus Kansas. Excuse me, Sint Johns' sex seconds close, but whatever. I live in New York, now, you know. There were some some nice Saint John's kids also at the bar the other day, nice but loud. So I have Florida advancing from the west.

Over over over Saint John's. Okay, okay, do you who do you have?

Over over over Saint John's. Okay, okay, do you who do you have?

I think I have the same thing. I have Florida and Maryland, Texas Tech, Saint John's, then Florida Saint John's, and then Florida.

I think I have the same thing. I have Florida and Maryland, Texas Tech, Saint John's, then Florida Saint John's, and then Florida.

Okay, so so far all we have is this one game that may or I'm not even happens.

Okay, so so far all we have is this one game that may or I'm not even happens.

So it's really it's interesting though, because you said you had no choices, and the one thing that Monty said was that the first well, I guess we're not doing the We're not doing the Sweet sixteen. So I have Colorado State beating Memphis because he said that the five and twelve five twelve is one of the most common upsets, and that would be fun.

So it's really it's interesting though, because you said you had no choices, and the one thing that Monty said was that the first well, I guess we're not doing the We're not doing the Sweet sixteen. So I have Colorado State beating Memphis because he said that the five and twelve five twelve is one of the most common upsets, and that would be fun.

Okay, you have Coloro State beating Memphis.

Okay, you have Coloro State beating Memphis.

Yeah, so it's a fucking silver bulletin model, Maria, really, yes, yeah, Monty's.

Yeah, so it's a fucking silver bulletin model, Maria, really, yes, yeah, Monty's.

Just are you sure he was?

Just are you sure he was?

Well, he didn't look. He didn't look.

Well, he didn't look. He didn't look.

Oh my god.

Oh my god.

So, which which bracket are we going to do next?

So, which which bracket are we going to do next?

Midwest? And now it's your turn to go first?

Midwest? And now it's your turn to go first?

Okay, So I have Houston, Purdue, Illinois, and Tennessee. Then I have Houston and Tennessee, and then I have Tennessee.

Okay, So I have Houston, Purdue, Illinois, and Tennessee. Then I have Houston and Tennessee, and then I have Tennessee.

Okay, so here's where your little counterintuitive friend. Okay, I've got Now I don't have to cheat to like to have different picks. So Houston Clemson, which you Clemson are Purdue?

Okay, so here's where your little counterintuitive friend. Okay, I've got Now I don't have to cheat to like to have different picks. So Houston Clemson, which you Clemson are Purdue?

I said, Purdue?

I said, Purdue?

Houston Clemson.

Houston Clemson.

Who who's a five seed?

Who who's a five seed?

We think produce a team that you know, gets a lot of benefit out of their home court advantage, but you're not playing at home in the tournament. Houston Purdue A close choice, But I'm going with a model here. Kentucky and Tennessee.

We think produce a team that you know, gets a lot of benefit out of their home court advantage, but you're not playing at home in the tournament. Houston Purdue A close choice, But I'm going with a model here. Kentucky and Tennessee.

Well, Kentucky was one of the other, so that that was one of the choices that he also had me made. Illinois versus Kentucky said it was incredibly close, but that I was allowed to choose an upset, and I said I wanted to since my husband is from Chicago.

Well, Kentucky was one of the other, so that that was one of the choices that he also had me made. Illinois versus Kentucky said it was incredibly close, but that I was allowed to choose an upset, and I said I wanted to since my husband is from Chicago.

So then I have Houston emerging Tennessee Kentucky. It's a classic rivalry those.

So then I have Houston emerging Tennessee Kentucky. It's a classic rivalry those.

Two long states.

Two long states.

So I have Houston playing Tennessee in the regional final and Houston not Tennessee winning. Huh. Now I feel comfortable. I feel like I have an edge here.

So I have Houston playing Tennessee in the regional final and Houston not Tennessee winning. Huh. Now I feel comfortable. I feel like I have an edge here.

All right?

All right?

Okay, finally whit bracket. Have we not done yet the East? So I'm not trying to go first, right yep, Duke Arizona, I'm just picking the chalk here because I think I'm winning already. Duke Arizona, Wisconsin, Alabama. Do I have any choices to make here? I do not Duke beating Alabama in the Elite eight to advance to the Final four? Uh?

Okay, finally whit bracket. Have we not done yet the East? So I'm not trying to go first, right yep, Duke Arizona, I'm just picking the chalk here because I think I'm winning already. Duke Arizona, Wisconsin, Alabama. Do I have any choices to make here? I do not Duke beating Alabama in the Elite eight to advance to the Final four? Uh?

Yeah, I have Duke Arizona, Wisconsin, Alabama as well, and then Alabama, Duke and Duke.

Yeah, I have Duke Arizona, Wisconsin, Alabama as well, and then Alabama, Duke and Duke.

Okay, so remind me so I have One of the good things about doing a podcast is that it may not have Dawn and you. I just have the four number one seeds reaching the final four, even though it's incredibly unlikely that they all will right collectively, each have like a one in two chance roughly or less than that actually, so it's like only like a one in twenty chance that I'm quote unquote right. But this is why you need a funky scoring system. Should have we should have? Yeah, Monty, I don't know. Now, we just are are very chalky chalk if you don't know the term, and you probably wouldn't unless you're a sport's bidding your but like chalk just means picking the favorites. So in our final four, I need you to pick a national champion, Maria or you already revealed your national yep.

Okay, so remind me so I have One of the good things about doing a podcast is that it may not have Dawn and you. I just have the four number one seeds reaching the final four, even though it's incredibly unlikely that they all will right collectively, each have like a one in two chance roughly or less than that actually, so it's like only like a one in twenty chance that I'm quote unquote right. But this is why you need a funky scoring system. Should have we should have? Yeah, Monty, I don't know. Now, we just are are very chalky chalk if you don't know the term, and you probably wouldn't unless you're a sport's bidding your but like chalk just means picking the favorites. So in our final four, I need you to pick a national champion, Maria or you already revealed your national yep.

My national champion is Duke. How about you.

My national champion is Duke. How about you.

Let me think here? Okay, So this is interesting because like the biggest differentially have right now is Houston making the final four and not Tennessee. Yep, right, So so I don't okay, So if I get if I'm right on Houston, but you're right in Okay, I'm gonna do something weird here.

Let me think here? Okay, So this is interesting because like the biggest differentially have right now is Houston making the final four and not Tennessee. Yep, right, So so I don't okay, So if I get if I'm right on Houston, but you're right in Okay, I'm gonna do something weird here.

You ready, Yeah, I'm gonna go Florida.

You ready, Yeah, I'm gonna go Florida.

So you're gonna pick Florida beating Auburn and then this is lower.

So you're gonna pick Florida beating Auburn and then this is lower.

Expected value relative to entire field. But I'm trying to straut it because if I'm right on Houston making the final four, then I have an edge, so I don't want to pick Houston, right, and then it's like redundant. It's like another way for me to win, right.

Expected value relative to entire field. But I'm trying to straut it because if I'm right on Houston making the final four, then I have an edge, so I don't want to pick Houston, right, and then it's like redundant. It's like another way for me to win, right.

I don't know.

I don't know.

I don't really I don't really know. I don't even you know, I don't know. I don't really like I'm really enamored of any of these, you know, Yeah, I.

I don't really I don't really know. I don't even you know, I don't know. I don't really like I'm really enamored of any of these, you know, Yeah, I.

Love I love how you're gaming out the game theory payoffs in real time on the pod.

Love I love how you're gaming out the game theory payoffs in real time on the pod.

This is great.

This is great.

Yeah, because Houston, then you're putting too many eggs in the Houston basket, right, But I think I'm gonna get that Houston. I mean, you know, yeah, I got Florida. Okay, let's let's go through. You have your whole bracket.

Yeah, because Houston, then you're putting too many eggs in the Houston basket, right, But I think I'm gonna get that Houston. I mean, you know, yeah, I got Florida. Okay, let's let's go through. You have your whole bracket.

I do I need you to give me three.

I do I need you to give me three.

Opening round games where the inferior seed wins and that they are at least an eleven seed and they win.

Opening round games where the inferior seed wins and that they are at least an eleven seed and they win.

Well, the only one that I have, well, I have Colorado State.

Well, the only one that I have, well, I have Colorado State.

Okay, that counts.

Okay, that counts.

Let's see. I think that might be the only one that I have that qualifies a no.

Let's see. I think that might be the only one that I have that qualifies a no.

No, somebody else can have to think on the fly, you get a freebie.

No, somebody else can have to think on the fly, you get a freebie.

This is not fair.

This is not fair.

I don't know any well, I can go back to my original vibes bracket and uh that'll that'll I have Yale beating Texas A and O.

I don't know any well, I can go back to my original vibes bracket and uh that'll that'll I have Yale beating Texas A and O.

All right, so Yale, you've got uh Colorado State.

All right, so Yale, you've got uh Colorado State.

And let's see what other Yeah, I go vibes here?

And let's see what other Yeah, I go vibes here?

What other vibe vibe upsides, vibe upsets I had? I had Wofford? Is that right word? Beating Tennessee?

What other vibe vibe upsides, vibe upsets I had? I had Wofford? Is that right word? Beating Tennessee?

Okay, I think you're weighing the vibes a little too much. That's the fifteen verses too.

Okay, I think you're weighing the vibes a little too much. That's the fifteen verses too.

I'm gonna.

I'm gonna.

I'm gonna so what I'll do as a favor, I will not pick any of the ones you pick, not that they are exactly at the top of my list, apart from Colorado State. I will not let myself choose Colorado State due to uh, due to you having picked it. Right, that's my little bonus point to you. So let's see, let's see where can I where can I get creative here?

I'm gonna so what I'll do as a favor, I will not pick any of the ones you pick, not that they are exactly at the top of my list, apart from Colorado State. I will not let myself choose Colorado State due to uh, due to you having picked it. Right, that's my little bonus point to you. So let's see, let's see where can I where can I get creative here?

All right? So Drake beating Missouri it's an eleven verses six or Model loves Drake VCU beating BYU. It's about a forty percent chance according to the model. And now I have to do something a little funkier, I think, and we'll take High Point.

All right? So Drake beating Missouri it's an eleven verses six or Model loves Drake VCU beating BYU. It's about a forty percent chance according to the model. And now I have to do something a little funkier, I think, and we'll take High Point.

Beating Purdue. Perdue tends to choke in the tournament. So if the tidebreaker, then will go to the three upset picks, right, Okay, if that's tie, they will have a name the location of the college contest that probably all win because but yeah, hand enter the location of every latitude and lunched it at one point before you had to look things up and be an efficient programmer. Okay, so we have our picks. They are pretty chalky. Do you have women's picks?

Beating Purdue. Perdue tends to choke in the tournament. So if the tidebreaker, then will go to the three upset picks, right, Okay, if that's tie, they will have a name the location of the college contest that probably all win because but yeah, hand enter the location of every latitude and lunched it at one point before you had to look things up and be an efficient programmer. Okay, so we have our picks. They are pretty chalky. Do you have women's picks?

I don't know.

I don't know.

Okay.

Okay.

Monty had very limited time, but I also promised him that I would not put that I would not actually bet this for any real money. So that was one of the conditions of helping me out.

Monty had very limited time, but I also promised him that I would not put that I would not actually bet this for any real money. So that was one of the conditions of helping me out.

Okay, Yeah, which I think we came up because they barely let me. You know again, They're like, immediately the Caesars puts up its lines on women's games, right, and like it's after dinner with my partner and I'm like, it's like, what are you doing. I'm like, do these lunches came out? Man? I have to have to bet and help before they change. He's like, are you ignoring the conversation. I'm like, this is where you make your money, and but it's this the one thing I kind of bit serious and they still can't get real money downe.

Okay, Yeah, which I think we came up because they barely let me. You know again, They're like, immediately the Caesars puts up its lines on women's games, right, and like it's after dinner with my partner and I'm like, it's like, what are you doing. I'm like, do these lunches came out? Man? I have to have to bet and help before they change. He's like, are you ignoring the conversation. I'm like, this is where you make your money, and but it's this the one thing I kind of bit serious and they still can't get real money downe.

Yeah, yeah, no that we've talked about this before. But that is obviously a very real problem when you have an edge in anything.

Yeah, yeah, no that we've talked about this before. But that is obviously a very real problem when you have an edge in anything.

But you know, I want to be the guy who's like, for gender equity reasons, I should be allowed to bit more on the best. You should, You absolutely should, But no, they really limit because they're afraid that like nobody knows anything, and so they you know, they're they're very defensive, even though women's faketiballl actually the women's tournament final got higher TV ratings and the men's last year. But you know, whenever a sports book is limiting you to a few hundred bucks, right even if they don't let meet you overall, whereas a men's I mean I get somewhat limited, right, But like that's that's saying they the statistical discourse about the game is not very advanced.

But you know, I want to be the guy who's like, for gender equity reasons, I should be allowed to bit more on the best. You should, You absolutely should, But no, they really limit because they're afraid that like nobody knows anything, and so they you know, they're they're very defensive, even though women's faketiballl actually the women's tournament final got higher TV ratings and the men's last year. But you know, whenever a sports book is limiting you to a few hundred bucks, right even if they don't let meet you overall, whereas a men's I mean I get somewhat limited, right, But like that's that's saying they the statistical discourse about the game is not very advanced.

Yeah, that makes sense, Nate. I wonder if our listeners want to want to chime in and see who whose bracket they think is going to win. Is it going to be dug Er Florida. How are we gonna how are we going to do it? I think that would be.

Yeah, that makes sense, Nate. I wonder if our listeners want to want to chime in and see who whose bracket they think is going to win. Is it going to be dug Er Florida. How are we gonna how are we going to do it? I think that would be.

I actually, I just think I think I have more ways to win the contest if like, yeah, you probably look, I think I don't want Houston. We we think we've locked in. If we set Duke, then I'll lose anyway, right, I mean, I think that was actually really stupid.

I actually, I just think I think I have more ways to win the contest if like, yeah, you probably look, I think I don't want Houston. We we think we've locked in. If we set Duke, then I'll lose anyway, right, I mean, I think that was actually really stupid.

I don't know, I think it was stupid.

I don't know, I think it was stupid.

Probably, But anyway, more drama though, yes, more drama wants to drama is always good.

Probably, But anyway, more drama though, yes, more drama wants to drama is always good.

Now, I don't particularly want to see them win. That's why I had U s l A winning my vibes Brocken. Okay, cool, well it was it was actually it was fun and I I actually think that I'm going to probably enjoy, actually enjoy watching some of the games now that I actually have a bracket and I know that I'm rooting for someone. Rooting is always something that's a little bit more fun. Let's uh, yeah, let's let's see who wins. I was about to say, may the best man win. Let's just say that may the best man win, and I hope that that's me slash Meat plus Monty. But but we'll see and I'm looking forward to the fight. After a quick break, we're going to be back.

Now, I don't particularly want to see them win. That's why I had U s l A winning my vibes Brocken. Okay, cool, well it was it was actually it was fun and I I actually think that I'm going to probably enjoy, actually enjoy watching some of the games now that I actually have a bracket and I know that I'm rooting for someone. Rooting is always something that's a little bit more fun. Let's uh, yeah, let's let's see who wins. I was about to say, may the best man win. Let's just say that may the best man win, and I hope that that's me slash Meat plus Monty. But but we'll see and I'm looking forward to the fight. After a quick break, we're going to be back.

Okay, Maria, now that you're a degenerate gambler, are you gonna Are you gonna? By the way, what are we betting on this? Should we do like dinner or something?

Okay, Maria, now that you're a degenerate gambler, are you gonna Are you gonna? By the way, what are we betting on this? Should we do like dinner or something?

Yeah, well we can't. I can't actually bet any money, per per Monty, so sure dinner dinner it is?

Yeah, well we can't. I can't actually bet any money, per per Monty, so sure dinner dinner it is?

Okay, so who pays for dinner next time we see each other?

Okay, so who pays for dinner next time we see each other?

Okay, are you gonna enjoy watching the games now that you have some skin in the game and it could be pretty nenice dinner?

Okay, are you gonna enjoy watching the games now that you have some skin in the game and it could be pretty nenice dinner?

Yeah? Absolutely, I'm uh, I'm excited because this is the first time I actually even know what the teams are who are playing in the n C Double A. Usually I don't tune in until kind of near the end, right where I'm like, oh, okay, you know this is important, but like there are some of these schools that I'd never heard of before. I was like, what in the world is this and where is it? So yes, now I think I'm actually going to have more skin in the game and that should be a lot more fun. By the way, our dinner should be something like basketball related, like we should get really good burgers or something like that.

Yeah? Absolutely, I'm uh, I'm excited because this is the first time I actually even know what the teams are who are playing in the n C Double A. Usually I don't tune in until kind of near the end, right where I'm like, oh, okay, you know this is important, but like there are some of these schools that I'd never heard of before. I was like, what in the world is this and where is it? So yes, now I think I'm actually going to have more skin in the game and that should be a lot more fun. By the way, our dinner should be something like basketball related, like we should get really good burgers or something like that.

Okay, perfect.

Okay, perfect.

Do you have any sort of kind of watching rituals or anything like that or is it just like whatever goes? Do you prefer watching in bars around other people? Do you like watching at home? I'm actually just curious. How have someone like you who's been doing this a long time does it?

Do you have any sort of kind of watching rituals or anything like that or is it just like whatever goes? Do you prefer watching in bars around other people? Do you like watching at home? I'm actually just curious. How have someone like you who's been doing this a long time does it?

For the tournament in the early rounds, it's fun to go to a bar because they can have like four different games on it once. I do not have like one of those fancy TV setups where multiple monitors kind of thing, right, So that's the reason why. Yeah, No, the tournament is like fun to like, Yeah, I mean, for some basketball and football are kind of the big Yeah, it's fun to watch sports at bars.

For the tournament in the early rounds, it's fun to go to a bar because they can have like four different games on it once. I do not have like one of those fancy TV setups where multiple monitors kind of thing, right, So that's the reason why. Yeah, No, the tournament is like fun to like, Yeah, I mean, for some basketball and football are kind of the big Yeah, it's fun to watch sports at bars.

What am I say?

What am I say?

I'm not trying to qualify that, ye too much?

I'm not trying to qualify that, ye too much?

Yeah, yeah, I actually I totally agree with that. You know, I'm not a football fan either, but found myself last year, I think or the year before a barbecue place during the Super Bowl when it was just starting, and it ended up staying there and watching the entire game because the energy was just so great and people were you know, people were so into it and it was a lot of fun. And I actually, like for once enjoyed watching a football game.

Yeah, yeah, I actually I totally agree with that. You know, I'm not a football fan either, but found myself last year, I think or the year before a barbecue place during the Super Bowl when it was just starting, and it ended up staying there and watching the entire game because the energy was just so great and people were you know, people were so into it and it was a lot of fun. And I actually, like for once enjoyed watching a football game.

And by the way, even if you never bet, a sports book is a fun place to watch sports too, because people are really into it. Yeah, and they're rooting in yeah.

And by the way, even if you never bet, a sports book is a fun place to watch sports too, because people are really into it. Yeah, and they're rooting in yeah.

No.

No.

But what's weird is like I have so for the bets I have, like you know, you sually it's born to watch, like the one versus sixteen games, very lopsided ones, but like I have like quite a few bets on like point spreads in those games. Like I said, in the women's often the favorites I expect one, but even more and the guys often underdogs, right, But like whether you know a team gets to thirty four points or thirty six points is like material to me.

But what's weird is like I have so for the bets I have, like you know, you sually it's born to watch, like the one versus sixteen games, very lopsided ones, but like I have like quite a few bets on like point spreads in those games. Like I said, in the women's often the favorites I expect one, but even more and the guys often underdogs, right, But like whether you know a team gets to thirty four points or thirty six points is like material to me.

So you maybe I'm probably not a good advertisement.

So you maybe I'm probably not a good advertisement.

Are you watch it?

Are you watch it?

I'm like, don't turn away from that blowout? You know.

I'm like, don't turn away from that blowout? You know.

Let's well, I'm definitely I'm definitely excited about it. What's your take? I'm wondering if you're rational or irrational when it comes to this on you know, superstitions. You know, there are some people who will like wear the team jersey when they watch, and they think that if they don't do X, their team's going to lose. How do you feel about all of that?