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Nine podcasts.

Welcome back to Prime Time. With the election almost upon us, we thought it was the perfect time to check back in with Shane Wright, our trusted guide to economic stories behind the politics. Shane's the senior economics correspondent for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, and he's brilliant at helping us separate the noise from the numbers. Shane Wright, welcome back to Prime Time.

Welcome back to Prime Time. With the election almost upon us, we thought it was the perfect time to check back in with Shane Wright, our trusted guide to economic stories behind the politics. Shane's the senior economics correspondent for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, and he's brilliant at helping us separate the noise from the numbers. Shane Wright, welcome back to Prime Time.

Can't believe you brought me back. But look, your poor listeners.

Can't believe you brought me back. But look, your poor listeners.

We've had six weeks of campaigning now. What has surprised you economically?

We've had six weeks of campaigning now. What has surprised you economically?

Economically, actually, the biggest surprise apart from the start, which was the stupidity of Donald Trump's tariffs and Liberation Day, has been the costings being produced by the opposition on the second last day, because I think the chutzpah of the opposition to have been complaining about economic management for such a long time and then say, oh, by the way, we'll have two bigger deficits for the next two years is pretty extraordinary. And you can understand why they waited until the after the Thursday afternoon before the Saturday election, when a third of the public have voted to come out with that sort of reveal.

Economically, actually, the biggest surprise apart from the start, which was the stupidity of Donald Trump's tariffs and Liberation Day, has been the costings being produced by the opposition on the second last day, because I think the chutzpah of the opposition to have been complaining about economic management for such a long time and then say, oh, by the way, we'll have two bigger deficits for the next two years is pretty extraordinary. And you can understand why they waited until the after the Thursday afternoon before the Saturday election, when a third of the public have voted to come out with that sort of reveal.

Wow. It's just it's it's astounding, isn't it?

Wow. It's just it's it's astounding, isn't it?

Yeah. Look, we've had this whole economic, um, through line from the campaign, from the coalition saying better economic managers, and they're free to say that. But then when you come out with the costings and you go, oh, oops, by the way, and they've been complaining about tax, the amount of tax being paid by Australians, fair criticism. But they think their argument is we will improve the budget bottom line by the end of the decade. I won't hold my breath, but it's all done by higher tax. It is all done by higher tax. Like one of the weirder things. And if Peter Dutton, if the people traveling with him, they've seen a lot of service stations over the six the five weeks of the campaign and the Peter Dutton campaign continues to claim that there is this yurt tax coming from labor, which is the introduction of higher fuel standards. The coalition is actually banking on an extra $600 million by getting rid of that tax. And I go, how's this? How is this so? It's because they are expecting that people will pay more fuel excise because their cars will not be as fuel efficient, higher tax. Like it's one of the great mysteries. But that's what they managed to do. So.

Yeah. Look, we've had this whole economic, um, through line from the campaign, from the coalition saying better economic managers, and they're free to say that. But then when you come out with the costings and you go, oh, oops, by the way, and they've been complaining about tax, the amount of tax being paid by Australians, fair criticism. But they think their argument is we will improve the budget bottom line by the end of the decade. I won't hold my breath, but it's all done by higher tax. It is all done by higher tax. Like one of the weirder things. And if Peter Dutton, if the people traveling with him, they've seen a lot of service stations over the six the five weeks of the campaign and the Peter Dutton campaign continues to claim that there is this yurt tax coming from labor, which is the introduction of higher fuel standards. The coalition is actually banking on an extra $600 million by getting rid of that tax. And I go, how's this? How is this so? It's because they are expecting that people will pay more fuel excise because their cars will not be as fuel efficient, higher tax. Like it's one of the great mysteries. But that's what they managed to do. So.

Wow. And that's the tax they're waving up front isn't it.

Wow. And that's the tax they're waving up front isn't it.

Well they're saying we're not going to go ahead with it with the with the higher fuel, the better fuel standards, which start from July 1st. But doing that actually means they collect more tax. And it makes sense because if cars are not as fuel efficient, then you burn more fuel. You pay more fuel excise.

Well they're saying we're not going to go ahead with it with the with the higher fuel, the better fuel standards, which start from July 1st. But doing that actually means they collect more tax. And it makes sense because if cars are not as fuel efficient, then you burn more fuel. You pay more fuel excise.

Wow. One of the great mysteries having you to unpick it just makes so much of a difference to listening to the lines coming out through the media.

Wow. One of the great mysteries having you to unpick it just makes so much of a difference to listening to the lines coming out through the media.

Well, this is the media. Come on.

Well, this is the media. Come on.

I know, I know, but but you don't see beneath the story. And this is the stuff that I, I am a bit fascinated by because I think we have to understand rather than just hear.

I know, I know, but but you don't see beneath the story. And this is the stuff that I, I am a bit fascinated by because I think we have to understand rather than just hear.

Out more, if that's what that's what's getting you excited. But yeah that's.

Out more, if that's what that's what's getting you excited. But yeah that's.

Yeah. Well sorry. Yeah. So since we last spoke, which was right back at the beginning of the campaign, Trump's tariffs have really come in. Cracked the market apart. What do you think that's going to do to the polls.

Yeah. Well sorry. Yeah. So since we last spoke, which was right back at the beginning of the campaign, Trump's tariffs have really come in. Cracked the market apart. What do you think that's going to do to the polls.

Well I think Liberation Day which was April 2nd was one of the key moments of the campaign because you've had Peter Dutton, remember in January there he was saying, we're going to have a Department of Government efficiency. We all love Elon Musk. He's going to rip. We're going to rip through and get rid of spending and all the rest. And then Americans have got to look at him. The Canadians have got to look at him. The Greenlanders have got a good look at him. Hell, even the penguins on heard and McDonald Island have now heard about Donald Trump. And they've gone, oops a daisy. Um, like, even this week, we've had, like, two really interesting pieces of data out of the US. One is the economic the American economy contracted through the first three months of the year, which is because every business is trying to put in product into the US now because of all these tariffs. And the other thing which showed and also we've also seen their trade figures. Australia had not run a trade surplus with the United States since Harry Truman was president. Okay, we have now run a surplus for the last three months with the US, and it's because Americans are buying gold.

Well I think Liberation Day which was April 2nd was one of the key moments of the campaign because you've had Peter Dutton, remember in January there he was saying, we're going to have a Department of Government efficiency. We all love Elon Musk. He's going to rip. We're going to rip through and get rid of spending and all the rest. And then Americans have got to look at him. The Canadians have got to look at him. The Greenlanders have got a good look at him. Hell, even the penguins on heard and McDonald Island have now heard about Donald Trump. And they've gone, oops a daisy. Um, like, even this week, we've had, like, two really interesting pieces of data out of the US. One is the economic the American economy contracted through the first three months of the year, which is because every business is trying to put in product into the US now because of all these tariffs. And the other thing which showed and also we've also seen their trade figures. Australia had not run a trade surplus with the United States since Harry Truman was president. Okay, we have now run a surplus for the last three months with the US, and it's because Americans are buying gold.

Wow.

Wow.

Lots of gold. Not just from Australia, but Australia is a big producer of gold, of course, but from other countries. And it's because gold is a traditional inflation hedge. And that's what people are doing because they know investors in the US know tariffs are inflationary. That's why they're buying gold. That's why gold has gone to such high prices over the last month or so. So yeah, April 2nd for an opposition that had gone had linked itself to that Trumpian. We're going to take on the world and we're going to we're going to cut government spending was a major issue. And people and voters here, Australians, even before Trump was elected, with when did not have any love for Trump. Like the support, Trump would not be successful in Australia. Like we can see that in every poll that where he gets asked about it. And I think that it's such a key moment when everyone went, oh my God, this is what Trump, Trump, Trump is Trump ism is. And that has hurt. You've seen it in the polls, the Canadian elections, that sort of, um, real antithesis towards what Trump stands for has hurt everyone on the right or the populist side of politics over the last.

Lots of gold. Not just from Australia, but Australia is a big producer of gold, of course, but from other countries. And it's because gold is a traditional inflation hedge. And that's what people are doing because they know investors in the US know tariffs are inflationary. That's why they're buying gold. That's why gold has gone to such high prices over the last month or so. So yeah, April 2nd for an opposition that had gone had linked itself to that Trumpian. We're going to take on the world and we're going to we're going to cut government spending was a major issue. And people and voters here, Australians, even before Trump was elected, with when did not have any love for Trump. Like the support, Trump would not be successful in Australia. Like we can see that in every poll that where he gets asked about it. And I think that it's such a key moment when everyone went, oh my God, this is what Trump, Trump, Trump is Trump ism is. And that has hurt. You've seen it in the polls, the Canadian elections, that sort of, um, real antithesis towards what Trump stands for has hurt everyone on the right or the populist side of politics over the last.

Very interesting times, isn't it? You wouldn't have predicted this back in in March, would you?

Very interesting times, isn't it? You wouldn't have predicted this back in in March, would you?

I have written about how Trump and those tariffs were crazy, like even the numbers, like the stupidity of ultimately we got the threat of 145% tariffs on China. Like it is such a destabilizing aspect of it and it makes no sense. And people think like his whole argument, that we will pay for huge tax cuts with revenue on these, on these imported products, will force people to produce everything locally. Okay. So that means you don't get any revenue because there's nothing being imported into the country. How the deficit just blows out. And and he's running a huge like the deficit has got bigger since he's taken over. So that's that's that's Trump. But that's the Trump factor that's played through a real key line through this whole election campaign I think.

I have written about how Trump and those tariffs were crazy, like even the numbers, like the stupidity of ultimately we got the threat of 145% tariffs on China. Like it is such a destabilizing aspect of it and it makes no sense. And people think like his whole argument, that we will pay for huge tax cuts with revenue on these, on these imported products, will force people to produce everything locally. Okay. So that means you don't get any revenue because there's nothing being imported into the country. How the deficit just blows out. And and he's running a huge like the deficit has got bigger since he's taken over. So that's that's that's Trump. But that's the Trump factor that's played through a real key line through this whole election campaign I think.

Yeah. It's amazing something so far away can actually be so close. Um.

Yeah. It's amazing something so far away can actually be so close. Um.

Well, I think like the the last time a US president has played such a big role in an Australian election, you have to go back to Harold Holt. And 1966, when Lyndon Baines Johnson actually visited Australia in October that year and like huge crowds, this is Pro-vietnam and LBJ pro Harold Holt. And the 1966 election, which was held about six weeks later, the biggest victory by any side of politics in history, the Harold Holt had a huge win like it was about 5743. Wow. And by 1969, the Vietnam War was not so popular, and they and the Liberal Party went very close to losing office in 69. It finally happened in 72. But that impact of a US president like we saw it in 2007, people might remember when John Howard effectively said, Barack Obama, like, if you if you want if Americans want, uh, terrorists to succeed, vote for Barack Obama, that people forget that that's he really leant in at that point. But LBJ 66 was even bigger impact on an Australian election?

Well, I think like the the last time a US president has played such a big role in an Australian election, you have to go back to Harold Holt. And 1966, when Lyndon Baines Johnson actually visited Australia in October that year and like huge crowds, this is Pro-vietnam and LBJ pro Harold Holt. And the 1966 election, which was held about six weeks later, the biggest victory by any side of politics in history, the Harold Holt had a huge win like it was about 5743. Wow. And by 1969, the Vietnam War was not so popular, and they and the Liberal Party went very close to losing office in 69. It finally happened in 72. But that impact of a US president like we saw it in 2007, people might remember when John Howard effectively said, Barack Obama, like, if you if you want if Americans want, uh, terrorists to succeed, vote for Barack Obama, that people forget that that's he really leant in at that point. But LBJ 66 was even bigger impact on an Australian election?

Interesting times, aren't we in? And so for someone heading to the polls this Saturday, which, you know, it's tomorrow, it's tomorrow. Um, what are the economic red flags or promises you'd be reading the fine print on? What should we be looking for?

Interesting times, aren't we in? And so for someone heading to the polls this Saturday, which, you know, it's tomorrow, it's tomorrow. Um, what are the economic red flags or promises you'd be reading the fine print on? What should we be looking for?

Um, anything about either side saying we're going to save money? Because the history of politicians saving money is a very sad one. It's a very sad one. And both sides are doing that. We will save x, y, z. Um, like the Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher have said. Right. We will improve the budget bottom line by $1 billion over four years. That means still cumulative deficits of 150 billion. Um, even with what Angus Taylor and Jane Hume have announced, the deficits over the next four years are 137 7 billion. Like so. It's huge. Neither side has really come. Has been upfront about how they really improve the structural side of the budget, or how they improve the speed of the economy, like the policies, their policy, rats and mice from both sides, rather than something that really goes to how you improve the functioning of the overall economy, like, and and if you go down that path, there will be winners and losers for the last 20 years. Neither side of politics has wanted to talk about winners and losers. But in any economic reform, there are losers. Um, and and no one wants to be completely upfront about that.

Um, anything about either side saying we're going to save money? Because the history of politicians saving money is a very sad one. It's a very sad one. And both sides are doing that. We will save x, y, z. Um, like the Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher have said. Right. We will improve the budget bottom line by $1 billion over four years. That means still cumulative deficits of 150 billion. Um, even with what Angus Taylor and Jane Hume have announced, the deficits over the next four years are 137 7 billion. Like so. It's huge. Neither side has really come. Has been upfront about how they really improve the structural side of the budget, or how they improve the speed of the economy, like the policies, their policy, rats and mice from both sides, rather than something that really goes to how you improve the functioning of the overall economy, like, and and if you go down that path, there will be winners and losers for the last 20 years. Neither side of politics has wanted to talk about winners and losers. But in any economic reform, there are losers. Um, and and no one wants to be completely upfront about that.

So let's let's knock on that door. Who's the loser in the Liberal Party's picture? And who's the loser in the Labor Party's picture at the moment as you see it?

So let's let's knock on that door. Who's the loser in the Liberal Party's picture? And who's the loser in the Labor Party's picture at the moment as you see it?

Well, the loser is anyone in the public service in the Liberal Party. And those numbers do not make any sense. Like they just there is this suggestion and Peter Dutton has leant into that camp. There's been an extra 41,000 public servants put into Canberra. There's only 69,000 here to begin with. And that the numbers that they've like. And we know what happened when the Liberal Party tried to keep a lid on the public service. And there's nothing wrong with keeping a lid on the public service. Absolutely nothing wrong with that. But ultimately, in their last term of office, which is only three years ago, they ran into huge problems which required use of labour hire. The. If anyone wants an idea, read the Veterans Royal Commission and what happened there people mental health people died because they weren't able to get access to their compensation or or or ongoing financial support because of huge delays in the Veterans Affairs Department.

Well, the loser is anyone in the public service in the Liberal Party. And those numbers do not make any sense. Like they just there is this suggestion and Peter Dutton has leant into that camp. There's been an extra 41,000 public servants put into Canberra. There's only 69,000 here to begin with. And that the numbers that they've like. And we know what happened when the Liberal Party tried to keep a lid on the public service. And there's nothing wrong with keeping a lid on the public service. Absolutely nothing wrong with that. But ultimately, in their last term of office, which is only three years ago, they ran into huge problems which required use of labour hire. The. If anyone wants an idea, read the Veterans Royal Commission and what happened there people mental health people died because they weren't able to get access to their compensation or or or ongoing financial support because of huge delays in the Veterans Affairs Department.

We know you couldn't get through a Centrelink call line for for you know, people were saying for months.

We know you couldn't get through a Centrelink call line for for you know, people were saying for months.

That's right. So that's the that's one clear loser for the for the government. Like you'd be looking at anyone in in the business sector. Like there's nothing really.

That's right. So that's the that's one clear loser for the for the government. Like you'd be looking at anyone in in the business sector. Like there's nothing really.

A tough enemy to take on.

A tough enemy to take on.

It's a tough. Well, this is the Labor Party, but there's nothing really there that says. Right. We're really supportive of trying to help you find a way to be more efficient, to be more productive. They've talked about competition and the budget actually had a competition element. And I actually think there were two really interesting policies, one from either side. They're very, very different. One was Labor's promise for the standardized tax deduction, which we're in a country where there are more accountants than there are farmers. And part of that is because of the stupidity of our tax system, and the fact that so many of us have to go to a tax agent. Introduction to the standardized tax deduction of $1,000. That's been around as an idea since the Henry tax paper. It's an efficiency gain. It's not huge, but it is a step on the coalition side. One of the interesting ones like it hasn't got any attention. But, uh, and this only affects a few people, but I think you'll resonate is the idea that we need somebody, an ambassador around hostage taking. So they actually have come up with this idea, right. Because people are being abducted overseas, and there's this whole element that goes under the under the radar of how you look after the families and how you get these people back. They've come up with a really interesting policy whereby you actually get somebody within foreign affairs who's sort of the point person, but you actually develop a way to deal with that. Like it's.

It's a tough. Well, this is the Labor Party, but there's nothing really there that says. Right. We're really supportive of trying to help you find a way to be more efficient, to be more productive. They've talked about competition and the budget actually had a competition element. And I actually think there were two really interesting policies, one from either side. They're very, very different. One was Labor's promise for the standardized tax deduction, which we're in a country where there are more accountants than there are farmers. And part of that is because of the stupidity of our tax system, and the fact that so many of us have to go to a tax agent. Introduction to the standardized tax deduction of $1,000. That's been around as an idea since the Henry tax paper. It's an efficiency gain. It's not huge, but it is a step on the coalition side. One of the interesting ones like it hasn't got any attention. But, uh, and this only affects a few people, but I think you'll resonate is the idea that we need somebody, an ambassador around hostage taking. So they actually have come up with this idea, right. Because people are being abducted overseas, and there's this whole element that goes under the under the radar of how you look after the families and how you get these people back. They've come up with a really interesting policy whereby you actually get somebody within foreign affairs who's sort of the point person, but you actually develop a way to deal with that. Like it's.

Interesting.

Interesting.

It's an interesting policy you got. Yep. Both sides can still come up with interesting or good policy. It's just the crap that's everywhere else. That's the problem.

It's an interesting policy you got. Yep. Both sides can still come up with interesting or good policy. It's just the crap that's everywhere else. That's the problem.

With me is Shane, right? The senior economics correspondent for The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Well, let's come back to the stuff that really affects everybody's hip pocket as we go into the election. Cost of living was a huge issue when we last spoke. Has any party put forward a plan that tackles it in a serious, long term way?

With me is Shane, right? The senior economics correspondent for The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Well, let's come back to the stuff that really affects everybody's hip pocket as we go into the election. Cost of living was a huge issue when we last spoke. Has any party put forward a plan that tackles it in a serious, long term way?

I wouldn't go that far. Neither side. Come on, come on. Like ultimately like we got some really great inflation figures this week. Like, and my wife and I were having a debate about this just the other day about saying Cher. Cher complaining about inflation is so high. And I said, well, inflation is not high. And then I said, the other thing is wages are going up. No they're not. I said, yes, they are. Your wage is going up. And this is the issue with inflation. It's when you get into a whole cost of living argument. Um, because people look at the price of everything and everything has gone up. Absolutely.

I wouldn't go that far. Neither side. Come on, come on. Like ultimately like we got some really great inflation figures this week. Like, and my wife and I were having a debate about this just the other day about saying Cher. Cher complaining about inflation is so high. And I said, well, inflation is not high. And then I said, the other thing is wages are going up. No they're not. I said, yes, they are. Your wage is going up. And this is the issue with inflation. It's when you get into a whole cost of living argument. Um, because people look at the price of everything and everything has gone up. Absolutely.

Absolutely.

Absolutely.

They're absolutely right. But people don't look at what their wages are doing either. And they go, hold on, how am I paying for this? So this has been a real key argument from Peter Dutton. And he has come up with this idea. We'll have fuel excise cut for 12 months, which means in 12 months time, the cost of your petrol will go up by $0.25 a litre. Yep. And this one off tax offset, $1,200. Which is mind boggling silly because this is what happened last under the last government. And you just people get used to it. So in two years time, everyone's going to fail. 10 million people face a $1,200 increase in their tax. So it's just you get, you give with one hand, you take away with the other.

They're absolutely right. But people don't look at what their wages are doing either. And they go, hold on, how am I paying for this? So this has been a real key argument from Peter Dutton. And he has come up with this idea. We'll have fuel excise cut for 12 months, which means in 12 months time, the cost of your petrol will go up by $0.25 a litre. Yep. And this one off tax offset, $1,200. Which is mind boggling silly because this is what happened last under the last government. And you just people get used to it. So in two years time, everyone's going to fail. 10 million people face a $1,200 increase in their tax. So it's just you get, you give with one hand, you take away with the other.

Right before another election just before.

Right before another election just before.

And someone and ultimately the and this is part of their costings is the government. The opposition says we won't go ahead with the tax cut that's been legislated already. That's all their costings are predicated on this extra like in 2829, there's an extra $7 billion in personal income tax collected under the coalition that helps improves their bottom budget. Bottom line. So you've got that going. You've got tax going up. So really, really short term the government has been doing this with, say, its energy subsidies, which run out at the end of this year. I think the reserve Bank will be finally happy that they're out of the system, because then we can see really what's going on in terms of the energy market, whether there really is a reduction in price pressures across that area, and there won't be that sort of money going back into the economy. Like the opposition says, it's fuel excise is deflationary. It yes, it reduces the inflation rate, but it's still pumping $7.5 billion into the economy. At the same time, my economics training is that would be inflationary. That's what the reserve Bank also would be believing as well.

And someone and ultimately the and this is part of their costings is the government. The opposition says we won't go ahead with the tax cut that's been legislated already. That's all their costings are predicated on this extra like in 2829, there's an extra $7 billion in personal income tax collected under the coalition that helps improves their bottom budget. Bottom line. So you've got that going. You've got tax going up. So really, really short term the government has been doing this with, say, its energy subsidies, which run out at the end of this year. I think the reserve Bank will be finally happy that they're out of the system, because then we can see really what's going on in terms of the energy market, whether there really is a reduction in price pressures across that area, and there won't be that sort of money going back into the economy. Like the opposition says, it's fuel excise is deflationary. It yes, it reduces the inflation rate, but it's still pumping $7.5 billion into the economy. At the same time, my economics training is that would be inflationary. That's what the reserve Bank also would be believing as well.

Very interesting times, isn't it? Um, we spoke about how older Australians make up the majority of voters last time we spoke. Do you think they've been a part of this campaign at all? Do you think there has been anything beyond lip service paid to older generations, or is this is this really targeting the young people and their cost of living?

Very interesting times, isn't it? Um, we spoke about how older Australians make up the majority of voters last time we spoke. Do you think they've been a part of this campaign at all? Do you think there has been anything beyond lip service paid to older generations, or is this is this really targeting the young people and their cost of living?

Um, well, cost of living is important to older Australians, but ultimately, like, we're really at that crux where the Gen Z and millennials are around the same size of voting bloc Look as, um, boomers and Xers. We're we're on that cusp right at the moment. Um, in terms of like the you can see like both sides have really embraced the government's urgent care clinics.

Um, well, cost of living is important to older Australians, but ultimately, like, we're really at that crux where the Gen Z and millennials are around the same size of voting bloc Look as, um, boomers and Xers. We're we're on that cusp right at the moment. Um, in terms of like the you can see like both sides have really embraced the government's urgent care clinics.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Now, we know older Australians use the health system more than younger people. And that is and they portray it as such. Like this is helping you like. Yes, it helps the mother who's got a kid who's done something silly to their hand or their foot or whatever, because children are great at that. Yeah, but it's also aimed at older Australians who really. Yeah, chronically who need that health service. So in that space and yeah, that's both sides have been really promising a lot in that that space.

Now, we know older Australians use the health system more than younger people. And that is and they portray it as such. Like this is helping you like. Yes, it helps the mother who's got a kid who's done something silly to their hand or their foot or whatever, because children are great at that. Yeah, but it's also aimed at older Australians who really. Yeah, chronically who need that health service. So in that space and yeah, that's both sides have been really promising a lot in that that space.

In Medicare space. And it's good to see because it's been hard to hard to maintain health services in, you know, and stay stay healthy if you can't access a doctor at the right price.

In Medicare space. And it's good to see because it's been hard to hard to maintain health services in, you know, and stay stay healthy if you can't access a doctor at the right price.

That's right. But ultimately, like the older Australians, they've been more peripheral to this election than in past ones. Like if you go back, John Howard in oh seven was promising like like billions of dollars in a straight out handout to people on the aged pension, like.

That's right. But ultimately, like the older Australians, they've been more peripheral to this election than in past ones. Like if you go back, John Howard in oh seven was promising like like billions of dollars in a straight out handout to people on the aged pension, like.

Tax cuts don't hit the hip pocket of the retiree. Right. That's right. You're very much nobody talks about that in the media. But but that's the reality is if you get a tax cut you don't you're not paying tax. If you've got the retirement based super fund on tap. No.

Tax cuts don't hit the hip pocket of the retiree. Right. That's right. You're very much nobody talks about that in the media. But but that's the reality is if you get a tax cut you don't you're not paying tax. If you've got the retirement based super fund on tap. No.

That's right. And like the opposition has really pushed into the change that the government has been pushing for the best part of three years, which is the the tax arrangements on people with superannuation balances of more than $3 billion, 3 billion, $3 million. Like that is still a very small proportion. But they're not young people who have $3 million. No. And this is where the where the rhetoric has really pushed into, oh, this is in inheritance text. Peter Dutton has used that in the last couple of days. So that's really aimed at older voters more probably his base higher income.

That's right. And like the opposition has really pushed into the change that the government has been pushing for the best part of three years, which is the the tax arrangements on people with superannuation balances of more than $3 billion, 3 billion, $3 million. Like that is still a very small proportion. But they're not young people who have $3 million. No. And this is where the where the rhetoric has really pushed into, oh, this is in inheritance text. Peter Dutton has used that in the last couple of days. So that's really aimed at older voters more probably his base higher income.

Do you think the libs will block that?

Do you think the libs will block that?

Yeah. That's their plan.

Yeah. That's their plan.

That's their plan.

That's their plan.

Part of their saving is they cost out blocking that, not going ahead with that change because it costs money not to go ahead with that change.

Part of their saving is they cost out blocking that, not going ahead with that change because it costs money not to go ahead with that change.

And talking to people out there, the biggest fear around that one from the mass market is that that's not indexed.

And talking to people out there, the biggest fear around that one from the mass market is that that's not indexed.

Yeah, it's not indexed. But at a government will index it. Yeah, it will absolutely get indexed.

Yeah, it's not indexed. But at a government will index it. Yeah, it will absolutely get indexed.

Because, you know, an average young person today, millennial coming through that has 30 years of super will compound their way to $2 million balances. Yeah. Before they retire easily.

Because, you know, an average young person today, millennial coming through that has 30 years of super will compound their way to $2 million balances. Yeah. Before they retire easily.

Yeah. They'll still be short of the 3 million. But you can see like even the government's own numbers, you can see how it picks up. But their argument is one, we've got to put the policy in place. Okay. But two, to they would know in their own heads. A future government will index that, otherwise they will have angry retirees with a lot of money in their super saying, what the hell are you doing to us? But ultimately, once you're in that superannuation space, there are huge concessions going on. Everyone says, that's my money. Absolutely. But you're being forced to put in being putting away your money into that and you're getting a huge tax concession to do it. Yeah. So that's the trade off in that space.

Yeah. They'll still be short of the 3 million. But you can see like even the government's own numbers, you can see how it picks up. But their argument is one, we've got to put the policy in place. Okay. But two, to they would know in their own heads. A future government will index that, otherwise they will have angry retirees with a lot of money in their super saying, what the hell are you doing to us? But ultimately, once you're in that superannuation space, there are huge concessions going on. Everyone says, that's my money. Absolutely. But you're being forced to put in being putting away your money into that and you're getting a huge tax concession to do it. Yeah. So that's the trade off in that space.

Now talk to me about one issue that I've heard very little about. And I would really like to have heard more about. And that's deeming rates on the aged pension. I thought I heard something in the budget that the Labour government was going to maintain the freeze. But then I've heard in the last week that they weren't. What's the truth of this?

Now talk to me about one issue that I've heard very little about. And I would really like to have heard more about. And that's deeming rates on the aged pension. I thought I heard something in the budget that the Labour government was going to maintain the freeze. But then I've heard in the last week that they weren't. What's the truth of this?

There's no truth to them. Like there was a this is being put out like these are parts of the subterranean campaign.

There's no truth to them. Like there was a this is being put out like these are parts of the subterranean campaign.

Things, people. Yeah, but it's a significant number of people that operate off the income test.

Things, people. Yeah, but it's a significant number of people that operate off the income test.

Oh, yeah.

Oh, yeah.

In Australia.

In Australia.

The argument that the government, like there wasn't there was a thought that maybe because the deeming rate should be changed, it is actually too low.

The argument that the government, like there wasn't there was a thought that maybe because the deeming rate should be changed, it is actually too low.

It's very low. It's very low, but it will impact. There's about 450,000 people that will be hurt who are retired and reliant on the aged pension, who will lose a good chunk of their pension. Yeah. If if that number moves.

It's very low. It's very low, but it will impact. There's about 450,000 people that will be hurt who are retired and reliant on the aged pension, who will lose a good chunk of their pension. Yeah. If if that number moves.

Yeah, but I'm putting them on my budget hard hat right now. I'm going to assume the deeming rate was at 0.25% at the moment. If you are getting if you were only getting 0.25.

Yeah, but I'm putting them on my budget hard hat right now. I'm going to assume the deeming rate was at 0.25% at the moment. If you are getting if you were only getting 0.25.

And 2.25.

And 2.25.

And 2.25, if you're getting that when the cash rate is at 4.1.

And 2.25, if you're getting that when the cash rate is at 4.1.

So where do you think it will go to? Because we're going to see that by 30th June. So, you know, I've got a book going to print and I need to change, change the numbers in it.

So where do you think it will go to? Because we're going to see that by 30th June. So, you know, I've got a book going to print and I need to change, change the numbers in it.

The Prime Minister got asked this and he said no change. He got he he he got asked that question. He got asked that question. He knew the numbers on the deeming rate. So he knew that this issue is in the ether with people because.

The Prime Minister got asked this and he said no change. He got he he he got asked that question. He got asked that question. He knew the numbers on the deeming rate. So he knew that this issue is in the ether with people because.

So you think there'll be no change this year?

So you think there'll be no change this year?

I don't think they'll change this year. It needs to change.

I don't think they'll change this year. It needs to change.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Because ultimately it's it's not it's actually not true. The deeming rate at the moment is not true.

Because ultimately it's it's not it's actually not true. The deeming rate at the moment is not true.

No. It means everybody's getting an incredible discount on their Commonwealth seniors health card and their, their pension. And it's great for for retirees. Right I love it the rate at this level and I I'm watching for it. And a lot of people don't know what the deeming rate is. If you're if you're on the aged pension using the income test, you'll know. But you may not realize it's a it's a hot button for July June 30th.

No. It means everybody's getting an incredible discount on their Commonwealth seniors health card and their, their pension. And it's great for for retirees. Right I love it the rate at this level and I I'm watching for it. And a lot of people don't know what the deeming rate is. If you're if you're on the aged pension using the income test, you'll know. But you may not realize it's a it's a hot button for July June 30th.

Yeah. But if I but I'm thinking about taxpayers and future taxpayers. No, it's a bad deal right at the moment because.

Yeah. But if I but I'm thinking about taxpayers and future taxpayers. No, it's a bad deal right at the moment because.

Like, I'm thinking about real people.

Like, I'm thinking about real people.

That's right. The deeming rate never used to be such a political hotbed. Yeah, up until we got into Covid, where it was changed and that made sense because cash rate collapsed, share markets really fell away. Um, and but then it became this political thing saying, oh, hold on. The it should have been changed in the, in the 2022 budget. It wasn't it should have been changed in Jim Chalmers first budget. It wasn't. They've just let it go because they now go, oh God, if we change it, the politics of it is terrible for us.

That's right. The deeming rate never used to be such a political hotbed. Yeah, up until we got into Covid, where it was changed and that made sense because cash rate collapsed, share markets really fell away. Um, and but then it became this political thing saying, oh, hold on. The it should have been changed in the, in the 2022 budget. It wasn't it should have been changed in Jim Chalmers first budget. It wasn't. They've just let it go because they now go, oh God, if we change it, the politics of it is terrible for us.

And yet, I have heard in the last week that it might get changed by both parties because. So I'm watching this one going, is anyone going to speak and are we just going to get a notification three days after the election that it's going up? Yeah.

And yet, I have heard in the last week that it might get changed by both parties because. So I'm watching this one going, is anyone going to speak and are we just going to get a notification three days after the election that it's going up? Yeah.

It wasn't in either costings of of the major parties.

It wasn't in either costings of of the major parties.

Okay. That's good to know. Yeah I'm glad you're reading below the below the line. Let's talk about the overarching Australian economy as we head into this election. What's the biggest risk that the next government will inherit?

Okay. That's good to know. Yeah I'm glad you're reading below the below the line. Let's talk about the overarching Australian economy as we head into this election. What's the biggest risk that the next government will inherit?

Two words Donald Trump. He's by far the biggest risk. Yeah, he's by far the biggest risk. Um, which, because of what he's doing. What how it affects China. That's an issue. Whether he has unleashed, uh, a whole new world of higher tariffs around the world, gumming up the way that we move goods and services and people around the world. Like, people complain about neo liberalism and globalization, but the world has got to a point where we have the fewest number of people in poverty as a share of the population in history. It has been good. Yes, we feel it's tough sometimes, but that's been the benefit of the last, like the last 60, 70 years of increased linkages between countries around the world economically. Donald Trump is trying to upend that. Go for it. But it comes at a huge cost. And that remains the by far the biggest single risk to every economy, not just either Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton.

Two words Donald Trump. He's by far the biggest risk. Yeah, he's by far the biggest risk. Um, which, because of what he's doing. What how it affects China. That's an issue. Whether he has unleashed, uh, a whole new world of higher tariffs around the world, gumming up the way that we move goods and services and people around the world. Like, people complain about neo liberalism and globalization, but the world has got to a point where we have the fewest number of people in poverty as a share of the population in history. It has been good. Yes, we feel it's tough sometimes, but that's been the benefit of the last, like the last 60, 70 years of increased linkages between countries around the world economically. Donald Trump is trying to upend that. Go for it. But it comes at a huge cost. And that remains the by far the biggest single risk to every economy, not just either Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton.

And which government do you think is most experienced to be able to cope with that or able better positioned? Is there any real?

And which government do you think is most experienced to be able to cope with that or able better positioned? Is there any real?

I think you're almost like a bottle in the ocean, like you're bobbing around like we are a middle power. What are we? The 12th largest economy in the world? Um, but ultimately, in this case, like Donald Trump is part of the problem with Donald Trump is that he he listens or deals with the the person he most recently listened to. That's his idea. And off he goes. And there's no rationale. He he's not he just doesn't understand how the economy works. He looks at it as a win lose mercantilist approach, which was great in the 17th century. Not in the 21st.

I think you're almost like a bottle in the ocean, like you're bobbing around like we are a middle power. What are we? The 12th largest economy in the world? Um, but ultimately, in this case, like Donald Trump is part of the problem with Donald Trump is that he he listens or deals with the the person he most recently listened to. That's his idea. And off he goes. And there's no rationale. He he's not he just doesn't understand how the economy works. He looks at it as a win lose mercantilist approach, which was great in the 17th century. Not in the 21st.

Interesting times, isn't it? All right, so we're we're, uh. We're at the end. For someone undecided, what's the one economic issue you'd like to see them weighing up most heavily before they cast their vote?

Interesting times, isn't it? All right, so we're we're, uh. We're at the end. For someone undecided, what's the one economic issue you'd like to see them weighing up most heavily before they cast their vote?

Uh, I should say productivity. But most people, they fall asleep, and you use.

Uh, I should say productivity. But most people, they fall asleep, and you use.

I think productivity is so important.

I think productivity is so important.

It's very important. But trying to find the policies that improve productivity. Good luck with that. Absolutely. Good luck.

It's very important. But trying to find the policies that improve productivity. Good luck with that. Absolutely. Good luck.

Does it does it impact things like trade unions and construction and all these things that we see? Well, I'm up in Queensland and we've seen a lot of that grind to a halt.

Does it does it impact things like trade unions and construction and all these things that we see? Well, I'm up in Queensland and we've seen a lot of that grind to a halt.

Yeah we do, but this is me being nerdy.

Yeah we do, but this is me being nerdy.

The the I love nerdy.

The the I love nerdy.

The Productivity Commission, about 6 or 7 weeks ago released a report on construction sector productivity and said it has fallen. Absolutely. But Australia's productivity in construction has not fallen by as much as the United States, as Britain, as Spain, as other parts of Europe. And part of it is people like think of the think of your splashback if you're building a new home. Okay, I go back 15 years ago, just plain old white tiles. Now people are demanding really upmarket levels of finishes to their their homes. That is coming at a cost in terms of productivity. So the homes that we are building, they are different to what we were building even ten, 15 years ago. And this is a global issue that that demand for a better quality is feeding into lower productivity.

The Productivity Commission, about 6 or 7 weeks ago released a report on construction sector productivity and said it has fallen. Absolutely. But Australia's productivity in construction has not fallen by as much as the United States, as Britain, as Spain, as other parts of Europe. And part of it is people like think of the think of your splashback if you're building a new home. Okay, I go back 15 years ago, just plain old white tiles. Now people are demanding really upmarket levels of finishes to their their homes. That is coming at a cost in terms of productivity. So the homes that we are building, they are different to what we were building even ten, 15 years ago. And this is a global issue that that demand for a better quality is feeding into lower productivity.

Where else are the productivity problems?

Where else are the productivity problems?

Um, the we've seen like Covid blew that out as we saw like because of the the global supply chains, we are requiring more stuff to come in.

Um, the we've seen like Covid blew that out as we saw like because of the the global supply chains, we are requiring more stuff to come in.

So where are the ones we can control? Where is the productivity we can actually impact?

So where are the ones we can control? Where is the productivity we can actually impact?

Well this is it. Like this. Again the PC report actually pointed out part of the problem is that our building construction sector is just filled with really like mum and dad and son or mum and dad businesses, and they are never going to they don't drive productivity as much as people say. Small business is the saviour. It is not they. They don't have the ability or the scale to really improve productivity by like the the big hope is for, say us off site construction, like where you build modular, modular and stuff like that. Like the the during the campaign, someone actually visited a place out in Perth where they're using machines to build homes almost within a day, just laying bricks. That's that is not something a, like a team of bricklayers are going to do, for instance, that requires what we call capital deepening spending money, investing in new tech to make things more productive. But that's just construction part of the issue. We're trying to measure productivity in a world where 70 to 80% of the economy is services, and trying to improve productivity in the service sector is notoriously difficult and notoriously difficult to measure. Like we are living longer that. So that's a factor of the health system. But that is not a productivity that doesn't come up as productivity.

Well this is it. Like this. Again the PC report actually pointed out part of the problem is that our building construction sector is just filled with really like mum and dad and son or mum and dad businesses, and they are never going to they don't drive productivity as much as people say. Small business is the saviour. It is not they. They don't have the ability or the scale to really improve productivity by like the the big hope is for, say us off site construction, like where you build modular, modular and stuff like that. Like the the during the campaign, someone actually visited a place out in Perth where they're using machines to build homes almost within a day, just laying bricks. That's that is not something a, like a team of bricklayers are going to do, for instance, that requires what we call capital deepening spending money, investing in new tech to make things more productive. But that's just construction part of the issue. We're trying to measure productivity in a world where 70 to 80% of the economy is services, and trying to improve productivity in the service sector is notoriously difficult and notoriously difficult to measure. Like we are living longer that. So that's a factor of the health system. But that is not a productivity that doesn't come up as productivity.

So where do we vote for that? How do we vote for that?

So where do we vote for that? How do we vote for that?

No I know. No I don't know if we can vote for it, but we can demand it.

No I know. No I don't know if we can vote for it, but we can demand it.

Well, what else you got to leave me with? One one issue people can vote for when they're when they're out there thinking about the economy. If we all want to fix the economy. What could we what could we vote for?

Well, what else you got to leave me with? One one issue people can vote for when they're when they're out there thinking about the economy. If we all want to fix the economy. What could we what could we vote for?

Yeah, we'd only you would look at either the policies that you think are the best in terms of inflation or wages growth.

Yeah, we'd only you would look at either the policies that you think are the best in terms of inflation or wages growth.

Yeah.

Yeah.

That's that's all policies that like I'm never going to tell someone how to vote because.

That's that's all policies that like I'm never going to tell someone how to vote because.

No, none of us.

No, none of us.

Are so many different ways that people like.

Are so many different ways that people like.

I just like to weigh up the smart stuff, you know? And you're you're the nerd. We get to speak to this. You tell us.

I just like to weigh up the smart stuff, you know? And you're you're the nerd. We get to speak to this. You tell us.

This is about the 11th election campaign I've been on, like I spent a week with with Albanese, for instance. Um, and we were I still remember we were in at the seat of Deakin down in Melbourne, whereby this is trying to get, um, like there'd been a house there in this particular, this little cul de sac of a house that had been affected. It was at the end of its life. So social housing is going in there. They're building two fairly quickly, two homes on the same block, which would suit a single parent. Okay. They're doing it relatively quickly, but ultimately that's better land use, which again, comes into productivity. And the fact that our housing sector is just a mess as well. Just where we build, how many people we're building. We've just we've fallen so far behind. That's another podcast that'll go for 5 or 6 days about problems in the housing sector. But that is a that is an example of where government policy is actually doing something. And it's it's a cul de sac at a time. Like it's really difficult to measure. But you can see ultimately in the next like that, that site will be finished within the next three months. There'll be there'll be two small families living in there, in one in a site that there used to be just one in a house that couldn't be lived in anymore. So that that's.

This is about the 11th election campaign I've been on, like I spent a week with with Albanese, for instance. Um, and we were I still remember we were in at the seat of Deakin down in Melbourne, whereby this is trying to get, um, like there'd been a house there in this particular, this little cul de sac of a house that had been affected. It was at the end of its life. So social housing is going in there. They're building two fairly quickly, two homes on the same block, which would suit a single parent. Okay. They're doing it relatively quickly, but ultimately that's better land use, which again, comes into productivity. And the fact that our housing sector is just a mess as well. Just where we build, how many people we're building. We've just we've fallen so far behind. That's another podcast that'll go for 5 or 6 days about problems in the housing sector. But that is a that is an example of where government policy is actually doing something. And it's it's a cul de sac at a time. Like it's really difficult to measure. But you can see ultimately in the next like that, that site will be finished within the next three months. There'll be there'll be two small families living in there, in one in a site that there used to be just one in a house that couldn't be lived in anymore. So that that's.

The speed we've got to operate at to fix these problems, isn't it? It's frightening. And and both parties have got to do that stuff.

The speed we've got to operate at to fix these problems, isn't it? It's frightening. And and both parties have got to do that stuff.

They do absolutely have to both get into that space. Yeah.

They do absolutely have to both get into that space. Yeah.

Um, Shane, we're not going to tell anyone how to vote. Any last tips for people as they're heading to the polls?

Um, Shane, we're not going to tell anyone how to vote. Any last tips for people as they're heading to the polls?

Get a sausage, get a sausage or or find something sweet. Whatever you like.

Get a sausage, get a sausage or or find something sweet. Whatever you like.

We'll let you go back to the newsroom so that you can keep the news flowing to us for the next two days. We greatly appreciate you taking time out to come on the show.

We'll let you go back to the newsroom so that you can keep the news flowing to us for the next two days. We greatly appreciate you taking time out to come on the show.

No troubles. Beck, have a good day.

No troubles. Beck, have a good day.

You too. Thank you for listening to Prime Time. Shane. Thank you for being such a wealth of knowledge. We hope this has given everyone some last minute ideas to take in as they approach the polls tomorrow. I'd love to hear from prime timers in an email. If you've got thoughts on what's going on out there and what should be important to everyone, please drop me a message. And don't forget to rate, review and follow us on your podcast platform and subscribe to our newsletter at Prime Timers. Net. My name is Beck Wilson. Stay tuned for our next episode and in the meantime, make your prime time count.

You too. Thank you for listening to Prime Time. Shane. Thank you for being such a wealth of knowledge. We hope this has given everyone some last minute ideas to take in as they approach the polls tomorrow. I'd love to hear from prime timers in an email. If you've got thoughts on what's going on out there and what should be important to everyone, please drop me a message. And don't forget to rate, review and follow us on your podcast platform and subscribe to our newsletter at Prime Timers. Net. My name is Beck Wilson. Stay tuned for our next episode and in the meantime, make your prime time count.