Spring Property Market Outlook: What to Expect

Published Sep 10, 2024, 5:01 AM

Spring's peak property market begins in September, making it the ideal time to for us explore what to expect. Capital city markets are at various stages: Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane are thriving, Sydney is a relatively balanced market, while Melbourne is quite soft. It's important to understand how buyers and sellers should navigate these differing market conditions.

Joining guest host and financial advisor Stuart Wemyss, is Jarrod McCabe from Wakelin Property Advisory.

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In today’s show we cover:

  • How different markets (soft vs. hard) respond to increased listings.
  • Tips for buyers and sellers.
  • Regional market trends and the impact of working from home.
  • The types of properties that are outperforming.

Hello, and welcome to The Australian's Money Puzzle podcast. I'm Stuart Williams and I'm sitting in for our usual host, James Kirby whilst he's taking a well earned break now. James would normally introduce me as a property friendly financial advisor and I'm also the host of my own podcast, Investopoly, and I'm absolutely thrilled to be hosting today's episode. Last week James interviewed Louis Christopher from SQM Research and they took a deep dive into the Australian property market from a high level perspective. It was a really fascinating episode and the sort of key highlights were that Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane are experiencing very impressive annual growth running at double digits, Sydney is a pretty balanced market around five percent growth, and Melbourne's the outlier slightly in decline in terms of property prices. Since last week's episode went to air, the Real Estate Institute of Australia announced that housing affordability has declined to its lowest point on record since it started monitoring this in nineteen ninety six. The average loan repayment now accounts for forty eight percent of median family income, obviously thanks to higher property prices and higher interest rates. So back to last week's show, Louis touched on a couple of other observations. Firstly, he said that units are starting to outperform houses, and he actually made the comment that that tends to happen in slower markets. Another very interesting point, which I'll ask my guest about today, was that vacancy rates, rental vacancy rates in the regions are starting to decrease again. Obviously, during COVID we have had a very tight rental market and vacancy rates were very very low. Of course, then post lockdown they tended to normalize. Well, they're trending downwards again, which is a bit of a surprise, to be honest. Anyway, if you missed the episode last week, it's certainly worth listening into. But today, what I wanted to do is build on the information that we talked about last week, and I want to focus in particular on the spring property market, which kicked off this this month. It's the peak property season, if you like. I want to talk to my guest about what that means for sellers, what it means if you're a buyer, particularly noting that markets are at different points of the cycle, and I have a perfect guest today to help us do that. He's a friend of the show, he's been on before. He's a very experienced buyer's agent and owner of Wakeland Property Advisory. Jered McKay. Welcome to the show.

Thanks very much having me, Stuart, my pleasure.

So I'd like to start with what is the spring property market mean for us? Is it just an increase in property listings? And why Spring? Why is that the peak period in the property market?

Troad.

Yeah, it's a good question.

Look, I mean the spring market's always in terms of supplies where things really start to ramp up, and I think that goes back to people feel their properties, probably particularly family homes, look best during spring. The garden starts to really come into bloom and a lot of flowers out, that sort of thing. But also we're coming out of colder, a wetter, more miserable months, particularly for us down in the Southern States, and so the property just presents well and people feel better about themselves at this time of year as well, so it tends to build from there. We also find that from a seller's perspective, there's a bit more competition because there's been a fair amount of pent up demand during the winter months where there hasn't been as much choice around.

It can start to.

Bring a few more buyers out into the marketplace as well. So you can quite often see a bit of a spike in values coming out of that winter period sort of late August and into September, and as the year builds or the spring it builds, there's more and more choice.

Available as well.

Yeah, and of course, as I touched on in the introduction, we've got different markets at different stages of the cycle around Australia. Some are very hard markets, particularly Perth for instance, where days on market is very contracted. If you've got a property to sell, it will sell very quickly. And the other end of the scale is Melbourne of course that's a little bit of a softer market. So how do those different markets kind of react to that uptick and in supply.

Look, I mean it's in some ways there's similarities to it that Obviously, an increase in supply can quite often lead to either market starting to flatten if they've been on the increase. But if there's a depth of demand that can eat up that increase in supply. Then it can sometimes just fan the flames and it can make it kick on because it just gives buyers more and more confidence that there is a depth of demand and if they don't do something sooner or later, then they're going to get left behind and going to be playing catch up, which is not a good thing to be doing in the property sense when the market is moving, but when it's start to decline, it can also be self fulfilling in that regard that people are seeing it go down and then if there's an increase in supply, and typically in a softening market, the main issue is that the demand isn't there, and so with the lack of demand and increasing supply, it just continues to push things further and further down. So it's a really interesting time of the year. We do always see supply pick up, and if there's not a depth to the demand then it can see some significant changes.

Yeah, and so what are you seeing sort of around the country and obviously particularly in Melbourne that where you operate in terms of those listing numbers, does it look like there's a lot of stock coming online?

And yeah, it does I mean, not necessarily right across the board, but I mean I looked at recently supply numbers this year for Victoria, particularly compared to last year, and we're certainly up on what we were this time last year. And I think if you look at the clearance rate in Victoria at the moment, it's hovering around the early to mid sixty percent mark. Now, if that's the case at the start of spring, when typically there is a bit more demand around by the time you get to the end of the spring market, where a lot of buyers have left because they've purchased, but many of those buyers then need to sell, so the supply is still quite often quite good through November and into December. With a lack of demand, I'd expect to see that clearance rate come back, and I think it will probably be in the early to mid fifties by the end of the year, which is certainly a buyer's market. Now, you look at, as you said, the other capital cities sort of Adelaide and Perth, particularly in Brisbane as well, I would expect them to keep kicking as the market goes because there is still depth to the demand in those areas. So even with the supply picking up, I think that there'll still be strong interest there. Sydney is a bit more interesting. I think that they're probably more in a level ish type market. You mentioned five percent growth this year, but if it's more of a plateau there on a level then they could start to come off a little bit. I don't think to the same extent as Melbourne, but it certainly could start to come off a little bit.

I was talking to a buyers hing yesterday from Perth and he was saying that the listings are really tight, not necessarily reflecting in volume. His observation was that volume is pretty healthy, it's just selling so quickly that the available stock is pretty tight.

So if we're.

Thinking about then getting into the property market during this sort of spring period, what advice would you have for buyers with respect to that? And I guess that there's probably maybe sort of two different markets. We want to think about the market that's really hot and challenging and buoyant versus a market that may be softening with more supply than there is by a demand.

Being prepared and doing your due diligence no matter whether you're in a competitive market or a soft market, is always going to be the most important thing, and I think you need to.

Make sure that you're ready.

In a hot market, you need to be ready to react because, as you said, Perth being the example, things are moving really quickly.

If you're not.

Ready, you'll get left behind, and you'll keep getting you'll keep missing out on properties. But in a soft market as well, you still need to be ready to take advantage of something that might be perceived there's being good value, so if you leave it for too long, there'll still be other buyers around that might take advantage of that. So I think, no matter what, being prepared and having yourself organized, whether it's solicitors, financial advice, building inspectors, all that sort of thing, being prepared and ready to move is really important. I think understanding technical value versus market sentiment when assessing property values is a really important thing, both from a growth market but also from a softening market, because when you're in the growth market, understanding market sentiment and being prepared to take a step in front of it is really important. If you're alling on sales that have occurred sort of even a month or two ago, and not taking into account the market's kicking week on week, you won't get in and you'll get left behind, or you'll get caught buying something that's of a secondary nature and isn't going to work longer term. So and that's a real can be a really difficult thing for buyers to get their head around in terms of setting a new benchmark and being prepared to pay that mark. Otherwise you just won't get into the market. I think from a buying perspective and a softening market, I think making sure that you're still buying a high quality asset is really important and not getting caught up on I'm being too cute. Sometimes in a softening market, people can be a little bit too smart by half and then end up missing out on things I only to look back and think I really should have taken advantage of that. So there's different mindsets when going into that sort of market, and I think it's really important to understand what you need to do.

Yeah, so if you're in a really soft market looking for a bargain property, something that's selling for well below what you think it's technical or intrinsic value, are you saying if you're going to take that approach that maybe you'll be too cute for yourself, and you'll miss out and some opportunities.

Not necessarily if you can still take advantage of that. But you just don't want to be too cute. So if you leave it there too long and you try and get it for too much of a bargain, if it's the right property for the right reasons, obviously, no one wants to overpay, and we all want to buy it for as little possible. But if you sometimes you can be talking five or ten thousand dollars in the scheme of buying a property worth in excess of a million dollars, don't be too smart and not be prepared to pay that. Because if you take a step back and you look at it in five ten years time and that property is worth well, hopefully double if it's over ten years, paying that extra ten to fifteen to twenty thousand dollars, you're not going to look at that and be too concerned.

Yeah, and I want to ask you about the reverse. I guess how you behave in a much stronger market. But before we do that, in a soft market like Melbourne in this spring that you expect, do you think there'll be a lot of bargains out there.

I think there'll be some good opportunities. Yeah, I do.

I think because there's a lot of supply hitting the market. So I think from a buyer's perspective at the moment, if you are about in the softening Victorian market, that there could be some really good opportunities to be had.

Yeah.

Okay, So for those people listening today that really are contemplating getting into one of those hotter markets like Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. In such a fast moving market, how do you assess whether you're overpaying? Of course, the prices are moving so quickly, that's the risk, right, No one wants to pay more than we really need to or should. How do we sort of navigate a market like that?

So I think it's important to look at it from a historical perspective. And when I say historically, I don't mean going back years and years. I'm all mean looking at the last three to six months and getting a clear understanding as to what similar properties have been doing and sort of monitoring and tracking that. So if you look back six months and you can see that a property sold for X dollars and then within three months it's selling for X plus two and then you get it and you can see a bit of a trend developing by the time you get to seeing the property that you're looking at.

Okay, it's been.

Moving month by this amount of money, I've got to expect that it could at least do that now compared to the sales that I'm considering. But might I even have to go a little bit further than that. And if you're confident, and particularly those markets that they are still got further to go in terms of their growth, then having the confidence to take that we call the step in front of the market, rather than taking a giant leap out in front of the market. We'll get you in and then you get the market to work for you rather than work against you.

I'm putting you on the spot here, Jared, of course, But do you think that there's any just from a a median value level, do you think any of those markets are getting close to being fully valued?

I mean, I don't know them as intimately as what others will, but I certainly think they're starting to get closer to But again, I think in a lot of circumstances that'll be getting to a point where they'll then start to Plateau. There's a lot of good fundamentals around all of those. I mean, we're always wary to a certain extent with Perth because it is so reliant on the mining sector, so it can be a little bit more volatile. But I think Brisbane certainly got some really good fundamentals to it. So I think even if it does get to a point where it might be at its premium for the moment, it's more likely to then just level off. It might come back a little bit, but then at some stage over the coming years it's going to kick again.

Yeah.

Okay, let's talk about it from in terms of the spree market from a seller's perspective. So for those people listening that are contemplating selling a property this spring, if they're doing so, they probably already started that process. But you know, what advice do you have. Obviously, if you're going to sort of term Melbourne as a buyer's market, then of course the implication is it's not a seller's market.

Is that right? Yeah, Yeah, that's exactly right.

So there's very much opportunities there at the moment from a buying perspective. So if you're looking to sell in that type of market, it's really important that you make your property stand out. I think from a seller's perspective, the big thing is to understand who you're going to be pitching your property to and therefore what do they expect. So if you're looking at it from a first home buyer or perhaps a downside that sort of thing, most of the time people are going to be looking for something that's ready to move in.

Turkey's the typical.

Phrase, So we want something that is and that's what we're seeing at the moment. Is probably the strongest sector of the market in a softer area like Victoria and Melbourne, is that there's concerns and weariness around dealing with trades and the cost of doing renovations. So having something that people can move straight into is definitely what the market's looking for. So if you're pitching towards that type of market, getting the property in that state so that it's ready to do that and spending a bit of money from a presentation perspective is really important. On the flip side of that, if you've got a property that's likely to be a development site or is likely to have the dwelling demolished and having a new building of some sort put on spending much money on the improvements is going to probably be a waste because you're not necessary. Most people are going to look at that and say, well, I don't need that, And if you go too far, they may look at it and say, well, now the improvements are adding too much value. So I don't want to be pitching towards that. So I think understanding your market is really important. I think understanding, particularly in a softening market and in certain areas, what's the best method of sale is really important too, because it's not going to be and Melbourn, obviously, as an example, in the soft market at the moment, is typically known as the auction capital the country, but that's not going to be across the board in a softening market. So in areas whereby it's possibly a bit more of a sometimes we auction, sometimes we don't. In the softening market, when you're out on some of the outer suburbs where the depth of demand may not be as strong, you may be better off considering a private sale or an expression of interest. And depending upon the need for sell, is there a market for an off market strategy and that might be something to consider as well.

So method of sales.

Really important in that scenario, and so selection of agent because you need to make sure you've got someone that knows and has got a good market share and so they can tap into that and you work for you in the best way possible.

And so for those that own property in markets that are running quite hot, of course logic would tell us no point selling now if the market's going to continue to run. But how do you know is there any sort of signs? So if you held a property in a Brisbane or an Adelaide or a Perth, when do you know when is the right time to sell in terms to maximize value?

Well, your personal motivation needs to be taken into account there as to what's the reason. So is it for it because you're looking to upsize an upgrade a home or downsize down grade a home, or is it an investment property that is at that.

Point where you no longer require it?

So I guess your first things first is what's the personal motivation and is there a strong need or want to sell? And therefore, if there is, then okay, let's look at when does that need to be immediate or does it need to be at some stage in the next three to six to twelve months, and therefore you can set up the timing around that. I think the most important thing once you've determined the need to sell them when is to then look at getting it the most exposure as possible. So, for instance, we talked before about method of sale well, selling off market I think in a really strong market is a real risk because you run the risk of not necessarily there's new buyers coming into the market all the time, and if you sell off market, doesn't matter what agent you've got, they could have the strongest market share.

If they don't.

If they're not dealing with every single new buyer that comes into the market, they don't know everyone, and you risk risk, sorry, leaving money on the table. So I think making sure you expose the property as much as possible. That doesn't mean going overboard with say two bedroom apartment in print advertising where you're not really going to get new buyers coming in, but it's understanding where your buyers are going to be looking and making sure you get as much exposure as possible, making sure it stands out because it's sometimes in a stronger market, the supply can start to lift and so there'll be more competition, so you need to have a bit more of an understanding as to how the best to make your property stand out in the marketplace.

And I think that's really important as well.

Yeah, that's really good advice, Jared, for both property buyers and sellers. And i'd like to reiterate your first bit of advice is being prepared, whether you're in a soft market or a very buoyant market. We helped to client just recently buy a property in Brisbane. They're in a position then to sign an initial contract with a thirty days settlement and because they were able to act very quickly and offer that short settlement, they were successful in buying the property. So it's always good to then think about what are the leavers you can pull other than price in order to get a deal done, which is really good. Okay, that's very interesting. We're going to take a short break and we'll be back with you. I'm going to ask Jared when we returned about regional markets and really what else these team's been working on. So we'll be back with you in a moment. Hello, welcome back to the Australians Money Puzzle podcast. I'm Stuart Wellams and I'm talking to Jared McKay, buyer's agent and owner of Wakeland Property Advisory. So at the start of the show we talked about how capital cities are fairing differently, and Jared gay the US some great advice to both buyers and sellers that want to operate in the spring market. Jared, I just want to change speeds now and really leverage off what Louis Christopher was saying last week. His observation were the rental vacancy rates are on the decline in the regions, and that actually really surprised me. So how are you seeing regions but behave or perform compared to capital city markets.

Yeah, I agree to you. That surprised me as well.

I would have, particularly with the way the capital markets are working in some of the regions at the moment. I was trying to after hearing that, I was trying to think of what may have been driving that, Whether or not it's because of the type vacancy rates in a lot of the capital cities and people are looking for affordable alternatives and perhaps considering some of the regional areas. I'm not sure, but I was really surprised to see that. I think from a capital value perspective, in a lot of the regional areas, we're starting to see or we're certainly seeing a lot more supply in those sorts of markets now. There's been a bit of a change of tax when you go back to pandemic times, as I think you said earlier, and it was hard to even find anything to rent or buy in a lot of the regional markets at the time. The supply was that tight, and people were just looking to get out of capital cities into those sorts of areas. Whereas you move into a lot of those locations now and there's a lot more choice and there's a lot more flexibility. So for buyers that are looking to enter those markets, they are in a much stronger position than perhaps what they were a couple of years ago.

Yeah, I mean, there could be a couple of different explanations for it. Of course, because prices have risen so much over the last four or five years in those regions, maybe it pushes a lot of potential buyers out into that rental market, and therefore there's a greater demand from renters. I think in Victoria, like if I was taking guess the land tax and the additional property taxes probably mean more investors have sold their properties in those regions, and so the supply of rental property in that in those locations may be decreasing. You know, you gave some really great advice again to buyers and sellers in the spring property marketing when we sort of focused on capital cities. Does your approach change at all in regional markets, either as a buyer or seller, You're.

Probably in a stronger position as a buyer in a lot of the regional markets. Typically you find that supply is stronger than demand in most of those areas, and it's typically why in a lot of regional areas the most common method of sale is private sale as opposed to auction. The auction method works best when demand outstrips supply. You also find from a buyers perspective, it's far more common to be making conditional offers, whether that's in relation to finance or building inspections, or even in some circumstances condition upon the sale of another property is more common as well. So as a buyer, it's a bit like you mentioned before, Stuart, there's more leavers that you can pull and you can use to your so you work things a bit harder. Again, I think you've still got to be a little bit careful of being too cute in some areas and making sure that you're not pushing too hard, but you've certainly got options available to you.

I think it's property people interested in property, of course, that's the listener base for this podcast, and property owners. We can kind of learn a little bit from what happens in a softer market, particularly those for those wanting to get into those other markets that they're running quite hot. So are there any sort of property types or sort of geographical locations that are performing better in this softer market in Melbourne than others? And what I'm thinking is can we sort of take those learnings and apply them in other markets.

What we're noticing at the moment it goes back to probably what I said earlier about the stronger properties at the moment and those that are turnkey that are ready for people to move straight into.

So we're still seeing a reasonable amount.

Of people or the buyers that are in the market are either first home buyers or they're looking to upgrade or downsize, and there's a real want for those that are upgrading they possibly consider doing a renovation or extension on an existing home. But the uncertainty around the building sector and things just as it doesn't lend itself to that being the preferred option. So we're seeing more so and as a result of that, people don't they want to buy the property that's already renovated and ready to go.

So we're seeing a lot more of that. Now.

That's not necessarily across the board all the time, but that is in a softer market, you're finding it, and at the moment, with the concerns, that's probably where things are a bit stronger.

I guess if you're a really strong market, that could be one way to kind of mitigate risk. Well, I mean it's a question rather than the statement that is by a property that needs a bit of capital improvement kitchen, bathroom and so forth. By doing that, not only do you get the depreciation benefits, maybe a bit of an uplifting capital value hopefully and then improvement in rental yield. Is that the approach you might take in a stronger market.

Terrek, particularly if you've got the appetite for it.

I mean, we've got and I'm sure you've had two clients that just do not want to have to even consider dealing with that space. But those that are even remotely open to doing cosmetic works those sorts of things, I think that there's absolutely opportunities to take advantage of that at the moment, because there's a lot of buyers that don't want to so, and even more so, if you've got a skill set to be able to add to that, whether it's because you're a trade or you've got a family member or a friend who is and can do things on an ad hoc basis and help out, then I think that's certainly an opportunity at the moment. And also, as you and I've spoken about plenty of times, it means that your purchase price is going to have a much higher land to value ratio as well, because the improvements are going to be adding less to that title component. So the more land component or land value you can have in that purchase. If you're buying the right property, the growth is going to be stronger, and so then you can add value from an improvement's perspective, as you said, improve the rental and then it works well for you going forward.

And I'm really interested to know the rise of work from home, and I think it's really here to stay. Maybe not to the same extent that it was so prevalent during the lockdowns, of course, but I think most large corporates are getting to mandating three to four days in the office, but there's still maybe one day at least at home working from home. Does that impact us as investors in terms of the types of property we might want to invest in, do you think, Jared?

I think it's probably less from a geographic sense. I think the geographical side of things is probably more finding a level and people are sort of getting understanding as to what is possible and not. But I think from an accommodation point of view, I think that certainly starts to play in. And I mean it's as simple as might helped the client sell a one bedroom apartment recently, and it was something that he'd held for a long period of time. It had it as a home initially, and there was a little alcove in one corner of the entry hall and just to be able to and it wasn't set up that way, but we were able to set up a little desk to put in the corner to create a work from home environment, and that was the purchaser.

That was the key.

One of the keys for them was the fact that it had not a massive one bedroom itself, but the living space was really good at a nice balcony, but that little al cove gave them the feel of Okay, well, I've got my own work from home space that i can work with and that's really going to give me what I need, even though it's onety a one bedroom apartment. So I do think that specific accommodation to have that, whether it's a proper study, whether it's a studio at the back, I think having that dedicated space is certainly becoming more and more sought after.

And unfortunately we're running a bit short of time. But I really did want to ask you kind of if we split up your time period between sort of pre and post COVID, how has it changed your business, Jarry, because I think this gives listeners a really good sense of what's happening on the ground at the call face in terms of the activity in the market.

Now.

I know you obviously operate in Melbourne, but has your business changed And I guess I'm thinking in terms of investors versus own occupiers and purchases versus sales. How has it changed over time.

Yeah, it's a really good question.

I'd go back, probably even further than the pandemic to probably the Royal Commission, and I'd say that's probably when it started to switch in terms of the percentage of investors that we've been dealing with versus owner occupiers. That's from an acquisition point of view, but that's certainly we noticed a change from then. Went further during the pandemic and Victoria particularly at the moment. We don't need to go into too much detail, but there's certainly not a lot of encouragement for investors down this way at the moment, and I think that's leading to a lot of sales at present, and so there's a lot of investors leaving the market. I think it will change eventually. As I said before, I legitimately do think there's some really good opportunities to be had down in Victoria at the moment from a buying point of view, but there's not a lot of incentives to own investment property. So we've seen that from an owner occupier to investor in terms of vendor advisory versus buying services. Even in the last twelve months, Steward. I've noticed we had I would say that probably of our work seventy percent to thirty percent was by to sell this.

Time last year.

I'd say it's almost the reverse of that at the moment in terms of what we're doing. And there's a lot more vendor advisory work. And that's not just investors. There are a few, but there's a lot of others that are just upgrading and downsizing homes as well. So I'm not suggesting that it's predominantly, but there are a lot of we are seeing investors that are considering their position absolutely.

Yeah.

Okay, that's really interesting. Okay, we're going to take another short break, and when we return, I'm going to ask Jared a question from a listener about buying commercial property. So we'll be back with you at a moment. Hello, Welcome back to the Australians Money Puzzle podcast. I'm Stuart Weens talking to Jared McKay, buyers agent and owner of Wakeland Property Advisory. If I can be a little cheeky Jared, before we get into a listener question from James, I'd like to ask you one final question. If you could meet yourself fourteen years ago, when you started buying property as a buyers agent, what are the two to three most important lessons you would tell yourself about buying property?

I would probably say, And Richard Wakelan and Paul Nugent drilled this into me from the very start. The importance of asset selection, which everyone knows that buying the right property. Everyone wants to do that, but sometimes the emotion can get the better of people when buying property. So the importance of taking a step back and understanding why you're buying it, what's the purpose of buying it, and then making sure you buy the right property first and foremost. I think that was probably the first thing. I think something that's probably come to light a bit more in recent times, and again it's something that Richard always has said, but is that the things that you can't predict can quite often have the greatest impact. So things like the GFC you couldn't see that coming. Now again that there was the movie about the short selling things. Some will claim that they did the Royal Commissi in the pandemic. Some of these sorts of things have had the biggest influence on the market, as opposed to some of the smaller things that we can get quite worked up about around negative gearing and how that was going to be the biggest risk to everything. I mean, going back further, I know from my valuation days that the GST was going to be the.

End of it.

Then. So there's all these little things that people get worked up about. But it's I've typically notice that it's the bigger things that cause the biggest issues, and you're most likely tart predict them.

Yeah.

Yeah, I mean it's the same wins in stock markets. The thing that's going to create the next stock market crash is by definition unexpected, otherwise the market would price it. I think that's really good. Okay, we're going to take a question from a listener. Now it's from James. I'll read it out Jared, and then I'll give you the difficult task of answering it. So, James writes, I love the podcast and just had a quick question. I recently looked at buying some commercial property in my local area. A standard one hundred to two hundred and twenty square meter concrete block type property popping up everywhere. Nothing fancy about them. I'm assuming James is referring to sort of an industrial style shared property anyway, James writes the price was around six hundred and forty five thousand dollars, but the bank valued at four hundred and fifty thousand dollars, which I agree with the bank. How do developers get away we're still trying to charge above bank market rates if they're not valued at that, especially when we can physically see they're not being sold.

It's a really good question, James, And it's something that we discuss a lot and it's not actually really probably just a commercial industrial it's really an off the plan type question. So the same thing applies with residential property in the sense of apartments down now as is that sort of thing, and it's really the developer's premium that gets put in on top in order for them to make their profit.

The best analogy I can.

Give you is the buying of a brand new car and you drive it out of the door, out of the lot, and all of a sudden it depreciates in value because if someone wants something similar, they can go by the brand new version themselves, so the value is dropping straight away.

The bank's valuation is really interesting too.

Again, my background before getting into buying services was as a valuer. And the valuation assessments won't take into account off the planned sales. They will want to see resales of similar type properties in and around the area, So it's reflecting market forces as opposed to reflecting the developers' premium being paid. So the fact, because there's always someone that wants the brand new, wants something, wants that type of property or car, there's always going to be a market for that, and they'll pay the premium for it. But those that are smart take that off and don't necessarily need to have that, particularly when you're looking at it from a long term perspective, you're better off getting the property that's on the resale a year or two later, getting the same benefits that the other one offers, and not having to pay for it in the meantime.

Yeah, the analogy I would use, Joe, because a lot of our listeners invested in both property and shares. The analogy I would use is the off the planned property sale is like buying an unlisted company, Whereas when you buy a listed company, it's got that price discovery. It's regularly traded, so you know what the market thinks it's worth, whether it's worth that can be a completely different question, but something that's never traded before, like an off the plan property. It's more difficult, I guess to ascertain value. Well, that's been a really great conversation, Jared, thanks so much for sharing your years and years of experience with our listeners. I'm sure they've enjoyed it. And just a reminder, folks, if you have any question or feedback, we'd love to hear from you. The email address is the Money Puzzle at the Australian dot com dot au. Keep the questions coming. We've got James Gerard filling in for James Kirby on Thursday, and I'll be back with you next Tuesday, and we have another very interesting discussion lined up. I'll be talking about the state of the investor market around us. Jared and I already sort of touched on this, but surprisingly the Australian Bureau Statistics reported that invest alone volume is up over thirty five percent over the past year, which is pretty surprising given the backdrop of higher interest rates, higher property taxes and more stringe and tendency rules. So we'll be exploring that. I really hope you've enjoyed today's episode and if you have please share it. I've been Stuart Wiams and until next week by for now,

The Money Puzzle, with James Kirby

The Money Puzzle covers all the important property, business, money and finance news.  With two epi 
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