Chuck Todd walks through a primary night that was, in his words, a really good night for Democrats — and one that may have just answered whether 2026 is shaping up as a genuine blue wave. The night's biggest single story came out of Iowa, where Zach Lahn pulled off a stunning upset of Randy Feenstra in what Chuck characterizes as a "MAHA vs. MAGA" race — Trump endorsed the establishment Feenstra and lost, which Chuck predicts will drive the president absolutely nuts. Iowa Democrats also got a substantial ticket boost when Josh Turek blew out Zach Wahls in the Senate primary, and combined with the surprisingly strong gubernatorial candidacy of Rob Sand, Iowa is now the cleanest test case in the country for whether the political wind has truly shifted — a right-leaning state where the politics are visibly in flux. Chuck flags that Lahn can probably be painted as too far right in a general, that having "congressman" as your first name has become a real disadvantage in 2026, and that the night was an unambiguous positive for Democrats nationally. He also walks through results elsewhere: New Jersey's seventh district will see Tom Keane (still mysteriously MIA from his own campaign) face Rebecca Bennett; South Dakota's gubernatorial race is headed to its first-ever runoff after four candidates each cleared 20%, and Deb Haaland is on track to become the first Native American woman governor in U.S. history.

The conversation then turns to California, where Chuck warns it will be days before we have full primary results but where turnout is already on pace to exceed 2022. He cautions viewers about the inevitable early "red mirage" from the mail-vote curve, predicts Hilton has enough of a lead over Steyer that he likely survives, and argues Xavier Becerra would much rather face Hilton than Steyer in a general — though a potential scandal is looming over Becerra that could reshape the whole race. Chuck argues a Becerra-Hilton race would be a conventional Democrat-versus-Republican contest, that Steyer has spent $500 million across his last two campaigns and still has a low ceiling because he's created a genuine sense of voter exhaustion, and that the single most fascinating race in the state right now is CA-06 and Kevin Kiley. The Los Angeles mayoral picture is clarifying too: Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt appear set to advance, which Todd argues is exactly what Bass wanted — it will be far easier to turn Pratt into a Trump acolyte in a general election than to face the formidable Nithya Raman. He notes that Matt Mahan became known as "big tech's candidate" in ways that genuinely hurt him, and closes with one to watch in Montana, where independent Seth Bodner is quietly hoping the Democratic candidate eventually bows out so he can consolidate the anti-incumbent vote into a real challenge.

Then, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings — the former Orlando police chief turned local executive who is now running for governor of Florida — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a candid conversation about the challenges of being a Democrat in modern Florida and the lessons his unusual career path (accountant, then cop, then mayor) brings to executive leadership. Demings reveals that Governor Ron DeSantis personally threatened to remove him from office over his opposition to ICE operations in Orange County, and uses that experience as the entry point to a broader discussion about what's gone wrong with American law enforcement. He argues you cannot solve police shortages by lowering recruiting standards — exactly what he says ICE did when it ramped up so quickly that screening and training went out the window, with the predictable consequence that ICE has now begun poaching trained officers from state and local departments. Demings makes the case that we have to get criminals off the streets but it has to be done lawfully, that state law enforcement should not be doing immigration work, and that being elected sheriff as a partisan position creates real tensions because the actual responsibilities of the job aren't partisan at all. He pushes back on the idea that he's running to be a "performance politician" and frames his candidacy as wanting to bring competent local-government experience to a state level that he says is suffering from leaders chasing viral moments rather than delivering services.

The conversation turns to the structural challenges facing Florida and the deeper question of why Democrats can't win statewide in a state that's growing more diverse by the year. Demings argues Florida's underpaid state legislators simply don't attract quality talent, that many longtime Florida Democrats have left the party out of pure frustration, and that the party's central task is to restore basic public belief in government's capacity to function. He's willing to give DeSantis credit for diversifying and growing Florida's economy, but argues the state needs to find efficiencies rather than continually burdening local governments with expenses it should be covering itself — and points to slashed state mental health funding as a direct driver of the violent crime he sees in his community. Demings is sharp on Florida's climate exposure, arguing the state is building in places it absolutely should not be building, and that hurricane-hardened construction standards need a major overhaul, He flags the NAACP's call for athletes to avoid schools in remapping states as the kind of extreme response that extreme government actions inevitably provoke, and warns that the politics of division are starting to genuinely threaten Florida's tourism economy — meaning the state's longtime economic engine may finally be running into the consequences of the culture wars its leaders have spent the past decade fueling.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of instances that Republicans have rebuked Donald Trump in his second term, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Tuesday was a REALLY good night for Democrats nationally

01:30 Tom Keane still MIA, will face Rebecca Bennett in NJ-07

04:00 Iowa results made Democratic ticket substantially stronger

04:30 Josh Turek blew out Zach Wahls in Iowa

05:30 Biggest upset of the night was Zach Lahn beating Randy Feenstra

08:15 Lahn vs. Feenstra was a MAHA vs. MAGA race

08:45 Iowa is a right leaning state, but the state’s politics are in flux

09:45 Having a first name of “congressman” is a major disadvantage

11:30 Rob Sand is a very strong Democratic candidate for governor in Iowa

13:15 It’s possible Lahn can be painted as too far to the right

14:15 Iowa will be the test of whether 2026 is a blue wave election

15:30 Iowa was a huge positive development for team blue

16:45 Trump endorsing Feenstra then losing will drive Trump nuts

19:00 South Dakota governor’s race headed to runoff for first time

20:45 Four candidates in SD gubernatorial race received 20% of vote

23:00 Voters keep rewarding political bomb throwers

24:00 Trump endorsed the least Trump-like candidate, voters chose the Trumpy one

25:00 Deb Haaland on track to be the first Native American woman governor

25:30 It will be days before we know the full results of California primaries

27:30 California turnout will exceed turnout in 2022

28:30 Early on there will be a red mirage in California due to early vote

31:00 Hilton has enough of a lead over Steyer that he likely hangs on

32:15 Becerra would rather run against Hilton than Steyer

32:45 Steyer has created a sense of exhaustion

33:45 A Becerra v Hilton race would be a conventional D vs. R race

34:15 Potential scandal looms over Becerra

35:45 Most fascinating race is CA-06 and Kevin Kiley

38:15 It looks like Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt will move on in LA mayoral

40:30 It will be easier for Bass to turn Pratt into a Trump acolyte than face Raman

41:45 Steyer has a low ceiling, and has spent $500M in last two campaigns

43:30 Matt Mahan became known as “big tech’s candidate” and that hurt him

46:00 Independent Seth Bodner hoping Democratic candidate bows out in Montana

54:30 Jerry Demings joins the Chuck ToddCast

55:30 How did you go from accountant to police to mayor?

56:45 Accounting background helped with managing the city budget

58:00 How has Orlando changed since the time you were a police officer in the 80s?

59:30 Working on police reform both locally and nationally

1:00:45 Should the focus for police be better recruiting or better training?

1:01:30 Lowering recruiting standards can’t be the answer to police shortages

1:02:15 ICE was forced to ramp up so fast they didn’t screen or train recruits properly

1:03:45 We have to get criminals off the street, but it has be done lawfully

1:04:30 What were the unintended consequences of ICE’s questionable recruitment?

1:05:45 ICE began poaching state and local police officers

1:07:45 Should county sheriff be an elected position?

1:09:00 Political considerations do enter the equation when you’re elected

1:10:30 Size of jurisdiction does matter when it comes to appointed vs. elected

1:11:30 Sheriff is elected as a partisan position, but the responsibilities aren’t partisan

1:12:30 Why did you want to run for governor?

1:15:00 Want to take experience at local level government to a larger level

1:15:45 Ron DeSantis threatened to remove him over opposition to ICE

1:18:30 How would you work with the Republican dominated legislature?

1:20:30 Republicans have a large voter registration advantage in Florida

1:21:45 Not interested in being a performance politician

1:23:00 Why have Democrats been unable to elect a governor in Florida?

1:23:30 Florida’s legislators are underpaid, don’t attract quality talent

1:25:15 Many Florida Democrats left the party due to their frustration

1:27:00 Democrats need to restore belief in government

1:28:30 What has Ron DeSantis done right? Diversified & grown the economy

1:30:45 Does Florida need more tax revenue and how do you acquire it?

1:32:30 Government should always look to find inefficiencies & fix them

1:33:30 The state keeps burdening local governments with expenses

1:35:00 State has slashed funding for mental health, leading to violent crime

1:38:00 There is a lot of fraudulent claims made in Florida, state bad at investigating

1:39:00 State law enforcement shouldn’t be doing immigration enforcement

1:39:45 Florida is building in places they shouldn’t be, not factoring climate change

1:40:45 Florida should be hardening their building and infrastructure

1:42:00 Should Florida ban manufactured housing?

1:43:15 Florida needs housing construction standards that make sense

1:44:30 NAACP calling on athletes to not attend schools in remapping states

1:45:30 Extreme actions by the government elicit extreme responses

1:47:30 Tourism in Florida is being threatened by politics

1:49:45 Politics is dividing people by racial lines 

1:51:45 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Jerry Demings

1:53:45 DeSantis trying to ram through property tax cut before November

1:55:45 Trump replacing Tulsi Gabbard with Bill Pulte for DNI

1:56:45 Republicans immediately starting pushing back on Pulte as nominee

1:58:15 No need for NDI. CIA has won the intel agency turf battle

1:59:00 Bill Pulte makes Tulsi Gabbard look qualified for DNI role

2:01:15 ToddCast Top 5 instances Republicans successfully rebuked Trump

2:01:30 #5 The Epstein files

2:03:00 #4 Trump’s threat to take over Greenland

2:04:00 #3 Fed chair Jay Powell

2:05:15 #2 Matt Gaetz nomination for AG

2:07:15 #1 Death of Trump’s anti-weaponization slush fund

2:13:00 Ask Chuck

2:13:15 Thoughts on potential reforms, how realistic are they?

2:20:30 Why do you call Democrats the party that’s held to a higher standard?

2:24:15 Do you see Wes Moore as a top Democratic contender in ‘28?

2:29:15 Is Mike Johnson’s speakership at risk? Would he be the minority leader?

2:31:30 Can Keir Starmer survive as PM? Will Nigel Farage be PM?

2:36:30 Do you think a more virtual governance model rather than in-person would work?