FX carry trades - earning the yield spread available between two typically risky and safe currencies - is a long-standing theme in markets, which has also enjoyed excellent risk-adjusted returns over the last year. But with rate markets becoming more disruptive, are these strategies at risk? This week, we look at the positioning and pricing in currencies exposed to carry trades, on both the long and short side, to determine if any complacency persists. Host Tim Graf, Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, puts his volatility hat on to talk through these risks.

FX carry trades - earning the yield spread available between two typically risky and safe currencies - is a long-standing theme in markets, which has also enjoyed excellent risk-adjusted returns over the last year. But with rate markets becoming more disruptive, are these strategies at risk? This week, we look at the positioning and pricing in currencies exposed to carry trades, on both the long and short side, to determine if any complacency persists.&nbsp;Host Tim Graf, Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, puts his volatility hat on to talk through these risks.

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data and deep expertise, the Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide. 

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data and deep expertise, the Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world&rsquo;s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street&rsquo;s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.&nbsp;

Street Signals

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data, and deep expertise, the Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data, and deep expertise, the Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world&rsquo;s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals' host, Tim Graf, State Street&rsquo;s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State Street and industrywide.

There's Something About Carry

Last week's strong US CPI data left a Fed rate hike this week a foregone conclusion and likely inaugurates at least a modest hiking cycle. Inflation pressures are broad and not strictly energy-related, arguing for tighter policy globally. But does one key source of inflation, the AI build-out, need to break, to get price stability back on target? And what does that mean for an asset allocation strategy over the remainder of this year, into 2027? We discuss these questions, as well as how the US dollar might fare in an environment of constant flux, with Cayla Seder, Senior Macro Strategist at State Street Markets.

Last week's strong US CPI data left a Fed rate hike this week a foregone conclusion and likely inaugurates at least a modest hiking cycle. Inflation pressures are broad and not strictly energy-related, arguing for tighter policy globally. But does one key source of inflation, the AI build-out, need to break, to get price stability back on target? And what does that mean for an asset allocation strategy over the remainder of this year, into 2027? We discuss these questions, as well as how the US dollar might fare in an environment of constant flux, with Cayla Seder, Senior Macro Strategist at State Street Markets.

Does AI Need To Break To Contain Inflation?

After years of the market anticipating strength in the Japanese yen, it might finally be here. Aided by official Japanese intervention in the currency and hints of collaboration with the United States, a correction of the JPY’s long-standing perceived undervaluation would make for one of the most meaningful currency trends of the last decade. But why now? Will the yen strength of recent weeks last? And how far can it go? This week, we ask Michael Metcalfe, Global Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Markets, all of those important questions, and much more. 

After years of the market anticipating strength in the Japanese yen, it might finally be here. Aided by official Japanese intervention in the currency and hints of collaboration with the United States, a correction of the JPY’s long-standing perceived undervaluation would make for one of the most meaningful currency trends of the last decade. But why now? Will the yen strength of recent weeks last? And how far can it go? This week, we ask Michael Metcalfe, Global Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Markets, all of those important questions, and much more.

Yen In Black

Almost no matter where you look, bond yields are making new multi-decade highs, with concerns growing that rising debt servicing costs in high debt economies risk a snow-balling effect that culminates in a fiscal crisis. As if that weren’t enough, risk markets, particularly equities and credit, still appear oblivious to the potential for upset. After a pivotal week of speeches and pronouncements from US policy officials, it seemed a good time to catch up with Peter Vincent, State Street Markets EMEA head of FX trading in London.

Almost no matter where you look, bond yields are making new multi-decade highs, with concerns growing that rising debt servicing costs in high debt economies risk a snow-balling effect that culminates in a fiscal crisis. As if that weren’t enough, risk markets, particularly equities and credit, still appear oblivious to the potential for upset. After a pivotal week of speeches and pronouncements from US policy officials, it seemed a good time to catch up with Peter Vincent, State Street Markets EMEA head of FX trading in London.

There's Something About Carry

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