



Strait Talk: Oil, Macro and the Political Economy
Wednesday’s hopeful news of a possible end to hostilities in Iran and opening of the Strait of Hormuz comes just as the macro impact of events is starting to be felt and seen in economic data. A resolution does not change the realities of high near-term inflation and the varying policy responses to…

US Stocks: Stick or Twist?
Short-term market conditions remain subject to the headlines. Long-term questions of US equity market performance and whether investors require a rethink of their asset allocation preferences are the same and as valid today as they were before the eruption of Middle East hostilities. This week, Dan…

Iran: Has the Market Moved On?
In a decade full of seismic geopolitical events, the conflict in Iran had the potential to rank amongst the most impactful. Yet financial markets never priced it as more than a fleeting instance of volatility. And now, the most severe dislocations are almost fully closed with the onset of talks to …

Crude Awakening: Rate Markets In An Energy Crisis
Many of the consequences of the latest disruption to global energy supply have yet to surface. While oil has been the immediate focus, volatility across global interest rate curves is emerging as an equally consequential second-order effect. Markets are rapidly reassessing the scale and timing of i…

Iran Macro Risks: A Fragile Equilibrium
As the conflict in the Middle East enters a third week, markets remain uneasy but resilient. Lessons absorbed during past geopolitical shocks have so far kept this a slow-burn test of positioning and risk tolerance, rather than a volatility event with a specific breaking point. This week, we speak …

Strait Signals: Assessing the Iran War Risk Premium
A wider Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, seen for years as extreme ‘what-if’ risks, are now realities. The ranges of macroeconomic and geopolitical outcomes are as vast as they are unknowable, but reasonable future scenarios are starting to take shape. This week, we speak to…

The Great Rotation: Stocks Under the Surface
While geopolitical uncertainty dominates headlines, this week’s episode digs deeper into themes driving markets before the weekend’s events — particularly the sharp rotation in equities in 2026 and the reassessment of crowded AI‑linked trades and their fundamental drivers. Cayla Seder, senior multi…

Trading the Policy Whiplash
Market volatility continues to climb in February, with a landmark Supreme Court ruling on US tariffs last week upending US trade policy in an afternoon. Questions now circle as to whether last years trade-induced USD weakness that was expected to continue into 2026 is now at risk of reversal. Meanw…

The Year of the Fire Horse: China in Focus
In celebration of Lunar New Year, we take a deep dive into China’s political economy. Despite trade tensions, a weak consumer and a halting post‑COVID recovery, a powerful export boom kept China on track last year—and could do so again in 2026. Fresh off a two-week fact-finding trip across the coun…

AI, Labor Disruptions and the Future of the Fed
The changing of the guard at the top of the Federal Reserve comes at a crucial time for policymakers and markets. It is far from certain whether the promise of artificial intelligence heralds an era of stronger trend growth, or if the displacement in labor markets that might result will prove more …