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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Heley lines alongside Joe Matthew here on Bloomberg TV and Radio on this Friday, Jobs Friday at that and what a coincidence that the Jobs Day actually coincides with pretty lengthy remarks from the FED chair Jay Powell before the FED enters its blackout period its March meeting. Of course, week after next, the FED is not expected to do anything at that meeting, and the Chairman basically confirmed it, as he suggested once again, there's no hurry to make further policy adjustments. And it was interesting to hear from the Chairman Joe this notion that the path to returning to their inflation target has been bumpy. He expects that to continue and perhaps further bumpiness. Assessment is required when you're considering whether or not there is going to be tariffs that would have an inflationary impact. As we heard President Trump in the Oval Office just in the last hour after giving some reprieve to Canada just yesterday saying reciprocal tariffs on Canadian lumber and darry could go into effect as soon as today.

Heley lines alongside Joe Matthew here on Bloomberg TV and Radio on this Friday, Jobs Friday at that and what a coincidence that the Jobs Day actually coincides with pretty lengthy remarks from the FED chair Jay Powell before the FED enters its blackout period its March meeting. Of course, week after next, the FED is not expected to do anything at that meeting, and the Chairman basically confirmed it, as he suggested once again, there's no hurry to make further policy adjustments. And it was interesting to hear from the Chairman Joe this notion that the path to returning to their inflation target has been bumpy. He expects that to continue and perhaps further bumpiness. Assessment is required when you're considering whether or not there is going to be tariffs that would have an inflationary impact. As we heard President Trump in the Oval Office just in the last hour after giving some reprieve to Canada just yesterday saying reciprocal tariffs on Canadian lumber and darry could go into effect as soon as today.

Today or not or not, which seems to be the problem. Although watching the markets lift off their lows, I guess was encouraging after the Nasdaq fell into correction territory earlier today. Michael McKee is actually there. He was in the room for j. Powell's remarks and joins us from the US Monetary Policy Forum. This sponsored again by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Michael, it's great to see you. Thanks for coming on. As Kayleie mentioned that the big takeaways here, the big headlines, the Fed doesn't need to hurry. You could wait for greater clarity the path to two percent, Michael, gonna be bumpy. So nothing's new, is it.

Today or not or not, which seems to be the problem. Although watching the markets lift off their lows, I guess was encouraging after the Nasdaq fell into correction territory earlier today. Michael McKee is actually there. He was in the room for j. Powell's remarks and joins us from the US Monetary Policy Forum. This sponsored again by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Michael, it's great to see you. Thanks for coming on. As Kayleie mentioned that the big takeaways here, the big headlines, the Fed doesn't need to hurry. You could wait for greater clarity the path to two percent, Michael, gonna be bumpy. So nothing's new, is it.

No, there's really not a whole lot new here. I think maybe what fed the market reaction, the brief recovery that you had in the markets, was just a sense of calm that the chairman exhibited, the idea that the FED doesn't have to do anything right away because the economy's in good shape. He talked about how the labor market was in good shape. Inflation is coming down, still too high, as you mentioned, it could be bumpy, but he wasn't giving a lot of warning signals that there is something wrong at this point that the FED would have to react to. Now, obviously he said tariffs could be inflationary. They're anticipating that prices will go up. But because we have no idea exactly what the President is going to do, the FED at this moment has no idea what it's going to do. And that's kind of where everybody else on the FED is at the moment.

No, there's really not a whole lot new here. I think maybe what fed the market reaction, the brief recovery that you had in the markets, was just a sense of calm that the chairman exhibited, the idea that the FED doesn't have to do anything right away because the economy's in good shape. He talked about how the labor market was in good shape. Inflation is coming down, still too high, as you mentioned, it could be bumpy, but he wasn't giving a lot of warning signals that there is something wrong at this point that the FED would have to react to. Now, obviously he said tariffs could be inflationary. They're anticipating that prices will go up. But because we have no idea exactly what the President is going to do, the FED at this moment has no idea what it's going to do. And that's kind of where everybody else on the FED is at the moment.

Well, and is it the Fed's biggest potential problem right now, Mike, is that the consumer has no idea where things are going either, and we're starting to see consumer inflation expectations pick up. He did call that out today, although he noted it's not necessarily in longer term expect to expectations and that's really what they care most about.

Well, and is it the Fed's biggest potential problem right now, Mike, is that the consumer has no idea where things are going either, and we're starting to see consumer inflation expectations pick up. He did call that out today, although he noted it's not necessarily in longer term expect to expectations and that's really what they care most about.

Well, we did see the University of Michigan's five year inflation expectations move up in the last month. We'll get another report from Michigan next week and we'll see where they are also the New York Fed does its own survey of expectations comes out next week, so we'll have a better idea. Of course, the FED won't be talking at that point, but they are worried that if we see a continual series of tariffs, as the President sort of continues to threaten, that that might drive consumer expectations higher. And we did see expectations rise both on the short end significantly and the longer end a little bit, just on the headlines that you were getting from the President on tariffs after he came into office. So people are very sensitive to that. And JPOB made the point that this is not the pre COVID era. People are used to inflation now, and so they're perhaps more sensitive to the fact that it could jump up again.

Well, we did see the University of Michigan's five year inflation expectations move up in the last month. We'll get another report from Michigan next week and we'll see where they are also the New York Fed does its own survey of expectations comes out next week, so we'll have a better idea. Of course, the FED won't be talking at that point, but they are worried that if we see a continual series of tariffs, as the President sort of continues to threaten, that that might drive consumer expectations higher. And we did see expectations rise both on the short end significantly and the longer end a little bit, just on the headlines that you were getting from the President on tariffs after he came into office. So people are very sensitive to that. And JPOB made the point that this is not the pre COVID era. People are used to inflation now, and so they're perhaps more sensitive to the fact that it could jump up again.

And by considering the Fed's dual mandate, some of the concerns surrounding the job market not in this report so much today, but concerns that thousands of fired federal workers could really change the trajectory of growth in the labor market. How would that change the Fed's view when it comes to interest rates, Well.

And by considering the Fed's dual mandate, some of the concerns surrounding the job market not in this report so much today, but concerns that thousands of fired federal workers could really change the trajectory of growth in the labor market. How would that change the Fed's view when it comes to interest rates, Well.

It would be an interesting question because it would depend on how serious it is Federal workers all of them, about two million of them make up about one and a half percent of the total labor force. So if several hundred thousand lose their job, it isn't going to make a big difference. It could bleed over into other sectors though, as whose jobs are built around these federal government workers, restaurants or stores or things like that. If people lose their jobs, we could see an expansion. And obviously the contractors, the civilian contractors who do work for the federal government lose their jobs. Now, if that starts to spread, then you get perhaps a psychological effect on the rest of consumers who start to worry about their jobs and then they pull back on spending, and that's the classic way of recession starts.

It would be an interesting question because it would depend on how serious it is Federal workers all of them, about two million of them make up about one and a half percent of the total labor force. So if several hundred thousand lose their job, it isn't going to make a big difference. It could bleed over into other sectors though, as whose jobs are built around these federal government workers, restaurants or stores or things like that. If people lose their jobs, we could see an expansion. And obviously the contractors, the civilian contractors who do work for the federal government lose their jobs. Now, if that starts to spread, then you get perhaps a psychological effect on the rest of consumers who start to worry about their jobs and then they pull back on spending, and that's the classic way of recession starts.

Well, And wouldn't that suggest, Mike that while everybody's to Joe's point on the dual mandate, trying to focus on the inflationary side, and that's preliminary or primarily what the FED has been keying off of two, that actually the growth risks might be greater or just as great as the inflation risks right now as we are seeing that consumer pull back potentially that you're talking about, that could be further fueled.

Well, And wouldn't that suggest, Mike that while everybody's to Joe's point on the dual mandate, trying to focus on the inflationary side, and that's preliminary or primarily what the FED has been keying off of two, that actually the growth risks might be greater or just as great as the inflation risks right now as we are seeing that consumer pull back potentially that you're talking about, that could be further fueled.

Well.

Well.

The problem for the FED is they're caught in the middle here, and they're very happy with the fact that right now inflation's coming down, slowly but coming down, and the labor market is solid. The problem is if the labor market deteriorates a lot, that's a suggestion that we're going to see growth fall off, and then you start to worry about recession, and then you start thinking about cutting in interest rates. If inflation rises, then they would have to start thinking about raising in play, raising interest rates, which would also probably lead you into recession. So they'd be caught between a rock and a hard place. So they don't have a lot of good policy choices. If this all goes pear shape and there is a genuine consensus I think at the FED and among people on Wall Street that President Trump has a very very narrow path to make this work.

The problem for the FED is they're caught in the middle here, and they're very happy with the fact that right now inflation's coming down, slowly but coming down, and the labor market is solid. The problem is if the labor market deteriorates a lot, that's a suggestion that we're going to see growth fall off, and then you start to worry about recession, and then you start thinking about cutting in interest rates. If inflation rises, then they would have to start thinking about raising in play, raising interest rates, which would also probably lead you into recession. So they'd be caught between a rock and a hard place. So they don't have a lot of good policy choices. If this all goes pear shape and there is a genuine consensus I think at the FED and among people on Wall Street that President Trump has a very very narrow path to make this work.

Looking at a rising stock market at this point, Mike, the S and P's up ten points. We were sharply lower earlier, the Nasdaq and correction territory this morning, now eighteen points. I realized it isn't rally time, but the turnaround was significant. You credited that to the calumn that j Powell spoke to the markets, he's got to be quiet for a little while. Now. How damaging could that be for a nervous s Wall Street.

Looking at a rising stock market at this point, Mike, the S and P's up ten points. We were sharply lower earlier, the Nasdaq and correction territory this morning, now eighteen points. I realized it isn't rally time, but the turnaround was significant. You credited that to the calumn that j Powell spoke to the markets, he's got to be quiet for a little while. Now. How damaging could that be for a nervous s Wall Street.

Well, it depends on the psychology of markets, which I can't claim to know at this point. If there was a feeling and an ongoing feeling that a sell off was due, which I think there was, and you're looking for reasons to sell, then you have to ask where are we in that cycle. Next week we get the inflation numbers from the CPI and then we'll get those Michigan numbers. Will those contribute to a negative feeling that's enough to keep markets going down? Or have we gotten back to a little bit more of proper valuation and people will either hold and wait and see what happens with the tariffs or start to go back up again.

Well, it depends on the psychology of markets, which I can't claim to know at this point. If there was a feeling and an ongoing feeling that a sell off was due, which I think there was, and you're looking for reasons to sell, then you have to ask where are we in that cycle. Next week we get the inflation numbers from the CPI and then we'll get those Michigan numbers. Will those contribute to a negative feeling that's enough to keep markets going down? Or have we gotten back to a little bit more of proper valuation and people will either hold and wait and see what happens with the tariffs or start to go back up again.

All right, Bloomberg's Michael McKee live on the scene where we just heard from Chairman Powell. Thank you so much. As we consider what Mike was just talking about tariffs. This is actually something that our colleague Jonathan Farrow had the chance to speak with the National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett about earlier this morning. As once again we're getting new headlines from President Trump around tariffs he may or may not impose on partners like Canada. This is how director has It spoke about it.

All right, Bloomberg's Michael McKee live on the scene where we just heard from Chairman Powell. Thank you so much. As we consider what Mike was just talking about tariffs. This is actually something that our colleague Jonathan Farrow had the chance to speak with the National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett about earlier this morning. As once again we're getting new headlines from President Trump around tariffs he may or may not impose on partners like Canada. This is how director has It spoke about it.

I think in some sense that you've got quite a bit of clarity already. There's no uncertainty. There's going to be some tariff. It's going to be reciprocal. If you don't like teriffs very much, then reciprocal could be a great thing for you, because then countries around the world will be lowering their tariffs. But the President believes that if we replace income tax revenue with tariff revenue, we can make everybody better off.

I think in some sense that you've got quite a bit of clarity already. There's no uncertainty. There's going to be some tariff. It's going to be reciprocal. If you don't like teriffs very much, then reciprocal could be a great thing for you, because then countries around the world will be lowering their tariffs. But the President believes that if we replace income tax revenue with tariff revenue, we can make everybody better off.

Make everybody better off, Joe. Of course, not all economists are privy to that safety.

Make everybody better off, Joe. Of course, not all economists are privy to that safety.

No, And it brings us back to this idea of short term pain, this adjustment that the market may or the economy itself may or may not be going through. Here what this could mean longer term for tariffs with China. Markets don't have a lot of tolerance for that kind of talk right now, although I guess we are seeing a better vibe in stock since j Pollis spoke. But this idea of a short term correction has yet to be quantified.

No, And it brings us back to this idea of short term pain, this adjustment that the market may or the economy itself may or may not be going through. Here what this could mean longer term for tariffs with China. Markets don't have a lot of tolerance for that kind of talk right now, although I guess we are seeing a better vibe in stock since j Pollis spoke. But this idea of a short term correction has yet to be quantified.

Well, yeah, certainly, and we talk about better vibes today. Better vibe just means we're roughly even on the major benchmarks after they have fallen to below the levels where they were on election day, after we found out that it was President Trump who was the victor in that the Nasdaq one hundred earlier today, as you mentioned, Joe fell into correction territory, though it's not clear whether or not we're going to end the trading the day there. So obviously, the stock market is not the economy, but the economy is feeding into what we're seeing in the stock market, and on this Job's Day, we want to reflect more on just how healthy the economy is and turned to Kitty Richer. She's strategic advisor and senior fellow at the Groundwork Collaborative. Welcome back to Balance of Power, Kitty, if we could just begin with the data we do have in hand today, a jobs report that showed a little bit higher unemployment of four point one percent, but stronger than expected manufacturing payrolls. Specifically, what read does it provide you on the labor market right now? Knowing that everything that's happening with cuts in the federal government is not yet yet reflected in these figures.

Well, yeah, certainly, and we talk about better vibes today. Better vibe just means we're roughly even on the major benchmarks after they have fallen to below the levels where they were on election day, after we found out that it was President Trump who was the victor in that the Nasdaq one hundred earlier today, as you mentioned, Joe fell into correction territory, though it's not clear whether or not we're going to end the trading the day there. So obviously, the stock market is not the economy, but the economy is feeding into what we're seeing in the stock market, and on this Job's Day, we want to reflect more on just how healthy the economy is and turned to Kitty Richer. She's strategic advisor and senior fellow at the Groundwork Collaborative. Welcome back to Balance of Power, Kitty, if we could just begin with the data we do have in hand today, a jobs report that showed a little bit higher unemployment of four point one percent, but stronger than expected manufacturing payrolls. Specifically, what read does it provide you on the labor market right now? Knowing that everything that's happening with cuts in the federal government is not yet yet reflected in these figures.

Thank you, Kaylee. Yeah, I think it's really important to understand that the chaos that the Trump administration is sowing in the markets and among consumers has not yet had a chance to really filter through to the broad economic indicators. Things like the BLS Jobs Day and the cuts that are being made to the federal government workforce are really going to start to hit home, not just in the labor market, where we're going to see laid off workers trying to find new jobs, unable to make rent payments, mortgage payments. This could cause real problems in local economies across the country because federal workers are not just in the DC area, but also the services that those government workers are providing are going to start degrading rapidly. And you know, we're hearing that the Trump administration is looking for a short term correction for long term benefits, but it's really clear who's going to benefit from these policies, if anyone, and that's Elon Musk and the other billionaires that are currently running the government. Workers are going to see the CFPB has been gutted, and they're going to see financial institutions taking advantage of them and their families with no watchdog to stop it. They're going to struggle with the Social Security Administration, where the Trump administration ousted the head of SSA so that they could get their hands on sensitive data and are now threatening deeper cuts to services while also lying about non existent fraud in the State of the Union. All of these things are going to start to show up in the labor market, and they're already showing up in the lives of workers and families.

Thank you, Kaylee. Yeah, I think it's really important to understand that the chaos that the Trump administration is sowing in the markets and among consumers has not yet had a chance to really filter through to the broad economic indicators. Things like the BLS Jobs Day and the cuts that are being made to the federal government workforce are really going to start to hit home, not just in the labor market, where we're going to see laid off workers trying to find new jobs, unable to make rent payments, mortgage payments. This could cause real problems in local economies across the country because federal workers are not just in the DC area, but also the services that those government workers are providing are going to start degrading rapidly. And you know, we're hearing that the Trump administration is looking for a short term correction for long term benefits, but it's really clear who's going to benefit from these policies, if anyone, and that's Elon Musk and the other billionaires that are currently running the government. Workers are going to see the CFPB has been gutted, and they're going to see financial institutions taking advantage of them and their families with no watchdog to stop it. They're going to struggle with the Social Security Administration, where the Trump administration ousted the head of SSA so that they could get their hands on sensitive data and are now threatening deeper cuts to services while also lying about non existent fraud in the State of the Union. All of these things are going to start to show up in the labor market, and they're already showing up in the lives of workers and families.

Well, I'll tell you, I don't know to what extent there was lying about fraud, but we were just talking to Michael McKee about the impact of federal worker layoffs. As you talk about this yourself, Kitty, could we be in a world in which this effort by the Trump administration and the ancillary impact that you're describing is what prompts the Federal Reserve to start cutting rights again.

Well, I'll tell you, I don't know to what extent there was lying about fraud, but we were just talking to Michael McKee about the impact of federal worker layoffs. As you talk about this yourself, Kitty, could we be in a world in which this effort by the Trump administration and the ancillary impact that you're describing is what prompts the Federal Reserve to start cutting rights again.

I think that the Fed is in a really difficult position because the Trump administration is simultaneously engaging in these federal worker cuts that absolutely could ripple through the economy and cause contraction, while also sewing chaos in the markets and threatening things that might drive up inflation. And so it's a really difficult situation. I will say that I believe that the FED should have cut interest rates more quickly than they did, and we are still seeing persistent inflation problems in the housing sector, but that's not going to be aided by the FED holding mortgage interest rates and other interest rates higher. Those interest rates are really harming American families as they go out into the world and try to purchase homes, try to pay their rent, try to make ends meet in the current environment. But it is really difficult to do monetary policy when there's this much chaos.

I think that the Fed is in a really difficult position because the Trump administration is simultaneously engaging in these federal worker cuts that absolutely could ripple through the economy and cause contraction, while also sewing chaos in the markets and threatening things that might drive up inflation. And so it's a really difficult situation. I will say that I believe that the FED should have cut interest rates more quickly than they did, and we are still seeing persistent inflation problems in the housing sector, but that's not going to be aided by the FED holding mortgage interest rates and other interest rates higher. Those interest rates are really harming American families as they go out into the world and try to purchase homes, try to pay their rent, try to make ends meet in the current environment. But it is really difficult to do monetary policy when there's this much chaos.

Well, to your point on mortgage rates, we have seen them come down as we've seen bond yields falling, specifically in this administration has contended Kitty that they don't necessarily need the FED to be cutting interest rates, that there are mechanisms through which they can actually bring rates down on their own and still have that relief provided to want to be home buyers or people who need to borrow money that you're alluding to. Are there actual fiscal means with which they can do that in your mind, I.

Well, to your point on mortgage rates, we have seen them come down as we've seen bond yields falling, specifically in this administration has contended Kitty that they don't necessarily need the FED to be cutting interest rates, that there are mechanisms through which they can actually bring rates down on their own and still have that relief provided to want to be home buyers or people who need to borrow money that you're alluding to. Are there actual fiscal means with which they can do that in your mind, I.

Mean, the government has a lot of power to make homes more affordable, but I don't think anything that Trump administration is planning gets at that core issue for the American people. There are lots of things that the government can do to bring down the prices of healthcare and grow and the things that Americans rely on, and the Trump administration is moving in the opposite direction. So I wouldn't take those promises at face value.

Mean, the government has a lot of power to make homes more affordable, but I don't think anything that Trump administration is planning gets at that core issue for the American people. There are lots of things that the government can do to bring down the prices of healthcare and grow and the things that Americans rely on, and the Trump administration is moving in the opposite direction. So I wouldn't take those promises at face value.

We had a conversation with Larry Summers just this week getting back to this idea of short term pain for long term gain. I think as you described it, Kitty, Larry Summers, the former Treasury secretary, says that's the new transitory. It sounds like you agree.

We had a conversation with Larry Summers just this week getting back to this idea of short term pain for long term gain. I think as you described it, Kitty, Larry Summers, the former Treasury secretary, says that's the new transitory. It sounds like you agree.

If we're talking about the Trump administration's promises that somehow, this chaotic approach to managing the economy and allowing the wealthiest man on earth to loot the federal government is going to somehow eventually trickle down to workers. I think that that is preposterous, and we're not seeing any evidence of that. I don't think that we can take these claims at face value at this point, and.

If we're talking about the Trump administration's promises that somehow, this chaotic approach to managing the economy and allowing the wealthiest man on earth to loot the federal government is going to somehow eventually trickle down to workers. I think that that is preposterous, and we're not seeing any evidence of that. I don't think that we can take these claims at face value at this point, and.

So I.

So I.

Agree that it would be silly to take the Trump administration's claims about their policies and evaluate them without reference to all of the other wild claims that they have made and none of it is playing out in the data. We know what is going to happen when you have a government that is having sweetheart deals with Tesla, rampaging through the federal workforce, cutting services to people, all in the service of tax cuts for the very wealthiest and corporations, which is what the Republicans and Congress are currently working toward. We have fifty years of evidence that that kind of behavior arms American workers in the short, medium and long term.

Agree that it would be silly to take the Trump administration's claims about their policies and evaluate them without reference to all of the other wild claims that they have made and none of it is playing out in the data. We know what is going to happen when you have a government that is having sweetheart deals with Tesla, rampaging through the federal workforce, cutting services to people, all in the service of tax cuts for the very wealthiest and corporations, which is what the Republicans and Congress are currently working toward. We have fifty years of evidence that that kind of behavior arms American workers in the short, medium and long term.

Well, if you just consider then the administration's objectives, if you don't agree with their policy that they've said just as a means of getting their kitty. If the objective is to juice American growth, to incentivize American manufacturing, what is the popular or proper way to go about that if it isn't raising tariffs on trading partners, in cutting taxes as they have outlined.

Well, if you just consider then the administration's objectives, if you don't agree with their policy that they've said just as a means of getting their kitty. If the objective is to juice American growth, to incentivize American manufacturing, what is the popular or proper way to go about that if it isn't raising tariffs on trading partners, in cutting taxes as they have outlined.

I mean, the Inflation Reduction Act, investments in manufacturing and resharing are beginning to bear fruit now, and this administration is trying to roll all of those back. I think the way that we invest in American manufacturing American workers is by investing in American manufacturing and American workers, not by capriciously threatening our closest trading partners with tariffs that do nothing but royal the markets, while also by the way behind the scenes, walking back things like promises to close loopholes that allow China to ship goods into the United States without inspection. This policy is just really incoherent, and so it's difficult to evaluate it on the merits. But I do think that we have ample evidence that an investment led strategy can be really helpful. And we saw business investment, private investment go up near the end of the Biden administration, and that was the fruits of the investments that the administration made over the course of the pandemic and the recovery from the pandemic.

I mean, the Inflation Reduction Act, investments in manufacturing and resharing are beginning to bear fruit now, and this administration is trying to roll all of those back. I think the way that we invest in American manufacturing American workers is by investing in American manufacturing and American workers, not by capriciously threatening our closest trading partners with tariffs that do nothing but royal the markets, while also by the way behind the scenes, walking back things like promises to close loopholes that allow China to ship goods into the United States without inspection. This policy is just really incoherent, and so it's difficult to evaluate it on the merits. But I do think that we have ample evidence that an investment led strategy can be really helpful. And we saw business investment, private investment go up near the end of the Biden administration, and that was the fruits of the investments that the administration made over the course of the pandemic and the recovery from the pandemic.

Kitty, it's great to have you back, Kitty Richard, Senior Strategic Advisor, Senior fellow the Groundwork Collaborative. In the wake of j. Powell's comments and on this job's day, we are typically higher on Wall Street after a very negative start to trading. Here Kayley the S and P five hundred up six points. Nasdaq is up eight after touching correction territory that DAWs up over one hundred points. Big jump in McDonald's today, which might speak to this whole theme that we're touching on.

Kitty, it's great to have you back, Kitty Richard, Senior Strategic Advisor, Senior fellow the Groundwork Collaborative. In the wake of j. Powell's comments and on this job's day, we are typically higher on Wall Street after a very negative start to trading. Here Kayley the S and P five hundred up six points. Nasdaq is up eight after touching correction territory that DAWs up over one hundred points. Big jump in McDonald's today, which might speak to this whole theme that we're touching on.

Yeah, and this theme obviously doesn't just apply to markets. We're looking at the bond market as well. Interestingly, while yels were lower in the aftermath of today's jobs data, once we heard from Chairman Pow, they ticked up a bit. We're up two basis points on the ten year, two basis points on the two year as well. Those yields four point two nine and three point nine seven percent, respectively. In bitcoin eighty eight thousand. As the White House Crypto Summit.

Yeah, and this theme obviously doesn't just apply to markets. We're looking at the bond market as well. Interestingly, while yels were lower in the aftermath of today's jobs data, once we heard from Chairman Pow, they ticked up a bit. We're up two basis points on the ten year, two basis points on the two year as well. Those yields four point two nine and three point nine seven percent, respectively. In bitcoin eighty eight thousand. As the White House Crypto Summit.

Kicks off today, you wouldn't think that was happening based on the price action. But there's some concern about using seized coins not buying new ones. We'll talk about that coming up next right here. On Balance of Power. This is Bloomberg.

Kicks off today, you wouldn't think that was happening based on the price action. But there's some concern about using seized coins not buying new ones. We'll talk about that coming up next right here. On Balance of Power. This is Bloomberg.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Meantime in Washington We're particularly interested in the price action in bitcoin today because if I were to tell you it would actually be down the day after a long awaited Exact of Order to establish a strategic Bitcoin Reserve from President Trump was signed, you might not necessarily believe it. Of course, he talked about this on the campaign trail. He said he would do it. It just finally came part of the whole promises made, promises kept thing, I guess, Joe, but those who invest in crypto specifically may have been hoping that this promise was going to be kept a little bit differently, as in this would mean the government was going to start buying bitcoin rather than just taking what the government had already seized and putting it into this reserve.

Meantime in Washington We're particularly interested in the price action in bitcoin today because if I were to tell you it would actually be down the day after a long awaited Exact of Order to establish a strategic Bitcoin Reserve from President Trump was signed, you might not necessarily believe it. Of course, he talked about this on the campaign trail. He said he would do it. It just finally came part of the whole promises made, promises kept thing, I guess, Joe, but those who invest in crypto specifically may have been hoping that this promise was going to be kept a little bit differently, as in this would mean the government was going to start buying bitcoin rather than just taking what the government had already seized and putting it into this reserve.

That was the dream, which I guess could still be realized. But they're going to start this way. Scott Bessett was talking about this earlier today in an interview, suggesting that at least they're going to stop selling bitcoin, create the reserve and then maybe move on from there. But there's been a lot of disappointment around this lately. The post Untruth social a couple of days ago that suggested, you know, investing in a series of different tokens sent bitcoin lower and now here we are again today, although it's coming off its lows of the session.

That was the dream, which I guess could still be realized. But they're going to start this way. Scott Bessett was talking about this earlier today in an interview, suggesting that at least they're going to stop selling bitcoin, create the reserve and then maybe move on from there. But there's been a lot of disappointment around this lately. The post Untruth social a couple of days ago that suggested, you know, investing in a series of different tokens sent bitcoin lower and now here we are again today, although it's coming off its lows of the session.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And I would point out that David Sachs, the White House Crypto and Aizar did join Blue earlier today and talked a little bit about this. This is what he said.

And I would point out that David Sachs, the White House Crypto and Aizar did join Blue earlier today and talked a little bit about this. This is what he said.

The reason why we need a bitcoin reserve is that the federal government already owns some. In fact, it obtained around four hundred thousand bitcoin over the past decade through criminal and civil forfeitures and seizures, and so the government has to have a strategy for how it deals with this.

The reason why we need a bitcoin reserve is that the federal government already owns some. In fact, it obtained around four hundred thousand bitcoin over the past decade through criminal and civil forfeitures and seizures, and so the government has to have a strategy for how it deals with this.

Our conversation with Kristin Smith, the Blockchain Association CEO, is with us at the table as the Crypto Summit gets underway down the street at the White House, Christen, it's great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.

Our conversation with Kristin Smith, the Blockchain Association CEO, is with us at the table as the Crypto Summit gets underway down the street at the White House, Christen, it's great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.

Great to be here.

Great to be here.

What do you make of this frustration? Do you share it? Were you hoping that the White House was going to start buying No?

What do you make of this frustration? Do you share it? Were you hoping that the White House was going to start buying No?

I think what happened last night with the executive order that created a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and a digital asset stockpile, I.

I think what happened last night with the executive order that created a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and a digital asset stockpile, I.

Think it hit the nail on the head.

Think it hit the nail on the head.

This is exactly the type of signal that we need to show that the United States is serious about keeping the capital or making the US the crypto capital of the world, but doesn't doesn't go so far that we have the US government going out there into the market and buying digital assets. I think as the AI and cryptos are David Sachs pointed out earlier on Bloomberg Today, you know that the US already has a lot of these assets.

This is exactly the type of signal that we need to show that the United States is serious about keeping the capital or making the US the crypto capital of the world, but doesn't doesn't go so far that we have the US government going out there into the market and buying digital assets. I think as the AI and cryptos are David Sachs pointed out earlier on Bloomberg Today, you know that the US already has a lot of these assets.

We need to take an inventory put it in one place.

We need to take an inventory put it in one place.

But you know, I do think that there was some around the world that don't fully understand the limits of executive power.

But you know, I do think that there was some around the world that don't fully understand the limits of executive power.

I think if you want to have the government going out and spending money to buy crypto, that is something.

I think if you want to have the government going out and spending money to buy crypto, that is something.

That Congress needs to do and that is not within the scope of the executive order. So I think there's maybe just a misunderstanding of the powers that are out there. But you know, I'm excited to see this established because I think we're really ready to move the conversation onto what can we do to establish a regulatory framework that keeps US competitive for generations to come. And a lot of that work right now is happening on Capitol Hill with negotiations around stable coin bill market structure and some of these other issues, and so I'm excited to see this issue so hopefully put to the side for now so we can focus on the really difficult work of finding the right regulatory framework.

That Congress needs to do and that is not within the scope of the executive order. So I think there's maybe just a misunderstanding of the powers that are out there. But you know, I'm excited to see this established because I think we're really ready to move the conversation onto what can we do to establish a regulatory framework that keeps US competitive for generations to come. And a lot of that work right now is happening on Capitol Hill with negotiations around stable coin bill market structure and some of these other issues, and so I'm excited to see this issue so hopefully put to the side for now so we can focus on the really difficult work of finding the right regulatory framework.

Well to your point, Kristen on Congress having to play a role here, we did get a statement from the Chair of the House Financial Services Committee French Hill today which in part right, I encourage the administration to collaborate with Congress, particularly in regard to the structure and any funding related to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Are all parties aligned on not just this but the other things you were talking about. The way in which to pursue a strategy around market structure and stable coins. Is David Sach's going to be saying in the same tune as Chairman Hill or Chairman Scott.

Well to your point, Kristen on Congress having to play a role here, we did get a statement from the Chair of the House Financial Services Committee French Hill today which in part right, I encourage the administration to collaborate with Congress, particularly in regard to the structure and any funding related to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Are all parties aligned on not just this but the other things you were talking about. The way in which to pursue a strategy around market structure and stable coins. Is David Sach's going to be saying in the same tune as Chairman Hill or Chairman Scott.

For them, Yeah, I mean, I think everybody is aligned with the goal, and there are a lot of different ways I think to get to the same goal. And I think a healthy policymaking process is the one we're having now, where we allow different ideas to be vetted, debated, suggested, and to.

For them, Yeah, I mean, I think everybody is aligned with the goal, and there are a lot of different ways I think to get to the same goal. And I think a healthy policymaking process is the one we're having now, where we allow different ideas to be vetted, debated, suggested, and to.

Allow this collaboration. But I think the fact that we have.

Allow this collaboration. But I think the fact that we have.

The White House that is convening industry to hear from them. They've invited representatives from Capitol Hill to join. We've had David Sachs go to the Hill and be part of press conference.

The White House that is convening industry to hear from them. They've invited representatives from Capitol Hill to join. We've had David Sachs go to the Hill and be part of press conference.

Is there.

Is there.

I think the type of collaboration going on between the agencies, between the White House and between Congress is very important to making sure that all of the considerations are in place. I think what we saw over the last four years is we weren't having that kind of dialogue. We were in send instead of seeing enforcement actions a lot of litigation, and that wasn't the right approach. This open dialogue, discussion and debate is exactly what we need, and I'm really confident that we could build on the legislative work that Congress did last year and get these items in place as we move further along into the year.

I think the type of collaboration going on between the agencies, between the White House and between Congress is very important to making sure that all of the considerations are in place. I think what we saw over the last four years is we weren't having that kind of dialogue. We were in send instead of seeing enforcement actions a lot of litigation, and that wasn't the right approach. This open dialogue, discussion and debate is exactly what we need, and I'm really confident that we could build on the legislative work that Congress did last year and get these items in place as we move further along into the year.

So clearly you see this as a legitimizing action to executive order. When you look at the language though that David Sachs has been using. Any acquisitions would require budget neutral strategies. Yeah, this is Washington. How long do you need to wait for that?

So clearly you see this as a legitimizing action to executive order. When you look at the language though that David Sachs has been using. Any acquisitions would require budget neutral strategies. Yeah, this is Washington. How long do you need to wait for that?

Yeah?

Yeah?

Well, I mean listen, I think that there's going to be a brainstorm as to how potentially we could add more bitcoin. I mean, one idea I have I do think this would also require an Act of Congress is let people pay their taxes in bitcoin, or let people let's collect all these tariffs in bitcoin. And I think there's a lot of way that we can bring bitcoin exactly. So, you know, there's ideas out there, and I think, you know, the key is that the White House doesn't have the authority to spend taxpayer dollars that Congress hasn't given them, and so this is I think a really smart way. I think they've thread the needle and I think it sends a strong statement. I think there may be some disappointment in the markets today, but you know, I think as we move forward, this is a really stable policy and not something that would just be undone with another, you know, stroke of the pen in a future administration.

Well, I mean listen, I think that there's going to be a brainstorm as to how potentially we could add more bitcoin. I mean, one idea I have I do think this would also require an Act of Congress is let people pay their taxes in bitcoin, or let people let's collect all these tariffs in bitcoin. And I think there's a lot of way that we can bring bitcoin exactly. So, you know, there's ideas out there, and I think, you know, the key is that the White House doesn't have the authority to spend taxpayer dollars that Congress hasn't given them, and so this is I think a really smart way. I think they've thread the needle and I think it sends a strong statement. I think there may be some disappointment in the markets today, but you know, I think as we move forward, this is a really stable policy and not something that would just be undone with another, you know, stroke of the pen in a future administration.

So to Joe's point on it lending legitimacy to the industry, is that also what today's summit is about? Or are you expecting that there's going to be tangible outcomes from all of these executives meeting at the White House?

So to Joe's point on it lending legitimacy to the industry, is that also what today's summit is about? Or are you expecting that there's going to be tangible outcomes from all of these executives meeting at the White House?

Yeah, I mean, this is an absolutely historic day.

Yeah, I mean, this is an absolutely historic day.

I think sixteen years ago when Satoshi you know, issued the white paper and then you know, bitcoin was running, I don't think anyone could have imagined something like this happening at the White House. I mean, this is this is absolutely historic. I think it really sends a strong signal that you know, crypto is valued here in the US, this is an important industry and that we want to lead. And I do think we could see some further announcements today. I mean I think that that we are looking at things in sort of two steps. The first step is we need to undo the damage of the last administration. The second step is we need to put the regulatory and framework in place that allows the US to be competitive for generations. And so I do think we can see a lot of discussion today about you know, what are the outstanding remaining items that we need to change from the last administration.

I think sixteen years ago when Satoshi you know, issued the white paper and then you know, bitcoin was running, I don't think anyone could have imagined something like this happening at the White House. I mean, this is this is absolutely historic. I think it really sends a strong signal that you know, crypto is valued here in the US, this is an important industry and that we want to lead. And I do think we could see some further announcements today. I mean I think that that we are looking at things in sort of two steps. The first step is we need to undo the damage of the last administration. The second step is we need to put the regulatory and framework in place that allows the US to be competitive for generations. And so I do think we can see a lot of discussion today about you know, what are the outstanding remaining items that we need to change from the last administration.

There's a lot of.

There's a lot of.

Guidance out there, there's a lot of proposed rulemakings that could be very damaging.

Guidance out there, there's a lot of proposed rulemakings that could be very damaging.

We need to wipe that away so we can.

We need to wipe that away so we can.

Get roll of our sleeves and do the real work to get the regulatory frameworktplace.

Get roll of our sleeves and do the real work to get the regulatory frameworktplace.

Ho Thik is the tent with the Blockchain Association. When it comes to meme coins, this White House, this White House has cranked a few hours argument about whether this actually helps or hurts the industry.

Ho Thik is the tent with the Blockchain Association. When it comes to meme coins, this White House, this White House has cranked a few hours argument about whether this actually helps or hurts the industry.

Yeah, I know, you know, it's interesting.

Yeah, I know, you know, it's interesting.

I mean, I think meme coins are I think, a perfectly legitimate.

I mean, I think meme coins are I think, a perfectly legitimate.

And wonderful technology.

And wonderful technology.

Right.

Right.

People are allowed to enjoy novelties, They're allowed to have fun, and that's what that's what meme coins do. You know, I think, you know, there is a little bit of anxiety when you have the president playing in this space.

People are allowed to enjoy novelties, They're allowed to have fun, and that's what that's what meme coins do. You know, I think, you know, there is a little bit of anxiety when you have the president playing in this space.

And I don't think he's doing anything wrong. I think he's he's doing everything that is allowed under the law.

And I don't think he's doing anything wrong. I think he's he's doing everything that is allowed under the law.

You know, there has been legislation that a Congressman Lecardo introduced that would prevent elected officials from issuing.

You know, there has been legislation that a Congressman Lecardo introduced that would prevent elected officials from issuing.

Their own meme poins.

Their own meme poins.

And I think that's an important debate for Congress to have. But I mean, listen, we went from a president who you know, did every his administration, did everything within their power to try to stop this industry, to a president who is all in, who is very enthusiastic, and who's participating. And so you know, I will take the challenges of an overly enthusiastic president any day compared to having to deal with Gary Gensler in the lastdministration.

And I think that's an important debate for Congress to have. But I mean, listen, we went from a president who you know, did every his administration, did everything within their power to try to stop this industry, to a president who is all in, who is very enthusiastic, and who's participating. And so you know, I will take the challenges of an overly enthusiastic president any day compared to having to deal with Gary Gensler in the lastdministration.

Well, and so that brings me back to your point about there's kind of two phases here. One the unwinding of before, and then we get to the after. If the after has to include to create a regulatory framework market structure, legislation emanating from Congress, which we got in the last one didn't ultimately cross the finish line, I would imagine it's going to look pretty different now that Republicans have full control. What timeline are you expecting there? If there's still all this kind of backward looking work that needs to be done, when does that forward progress?

Well, and so that brings me back to your point about there's kind of two phases here. One the unwinding of before, and then we get to the after. If the after has to include to create a regulatory framework market structure, legislation emanating from Congress, which we got in the last one didn't ultimately cross the finish line, I would imagine it's going to look pretty different now that Republicans have full control. What timeline are you expecting there? If there's still all this kind of backward looking work that needs to be done, when does that forward progress?

Yeah, Well, I think there's a lot of momentum building in Congress. So we just last or just this week, gosh, it was only this week.

Yeah, Well, I think there's a lot of momentum building in Congress. So we just last or just this week, gosh, it was only this week.

Now we had a Congressional Review Act resolution.

Now we had a Congressional Review Act resolution.

In the Senate that got eighteen Democrats and one independent that joined. We have a same resolution voted on in the House next week. I think that that is starting to build very bipartisan momentum that undoes the work of the past. We're seeing work on stable coin bills, new drafts introduced, we have markups and hearings, next week. I think that will continue to build that momentum, and we could see that as early as this and then I think it's very likely that we could get market structure done by the end of the year. I think that there are a lot of discussions going on there, especially between the House and the Senate. I have never seen so much collaboration at a staff level and on a member level between the House and the Senate. So I think they're serious about getting this done. And we're really excited at the Blockchain Association for the unique moment we find ourselves in, and we're ready to be a partner as policymakers are exploring ideas.

In the Senate that got eighteen Democrats and one independent that joined. We have a same resolution voted on in the House next week. I think that that is starting to build very bipartisan momentum that undoes the work of the past. We're seeing work on stable coin bills, new drafts introduced, we have markups and hearings, next week. I think that will continue to build that momentum, and we could see that as early as this and then I think it's very likely that we could get market structure done by the end of the year. I think that there are a lot of discussions going on there, especially between the House and the Senate. I have never seen so much collaboration at a staff level and on a member level between the House and the Senate. So I think they're serious about getting this done. And we're really excited at the Blockchain Association for the unique moment we find ourselves in, and we're ready to be a partner as policymakers are exploring ideas.

Dance cards pretty full on Capitol Hill right now, as we stare down the pipe of a potential government shut down, this massive reconciliation project. They're talking about Trump tax cuts and so forth. What can Donald Trump say today? He's going to speak, Well, he's scheduled to an hour and a half from now at the Crypto Summit to hasten and put some urgency underneath this effort on Capitol Hill.

Dance cards pretty full on Capitol Hill right now, as we stare down the pipe of a potential government shut down, this massive reconciliation project. They're talking about Trump tax cuts and so forth. What can Donald Trump say today? He's going to speak, Well, he's scheduled to an hour and a half from now at the Crypto Summit to hasten and put some urgency underneath this effort on Capitol Hill.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Well, I mean, I think highlighting it as a priority is really sends a signal to Congress that this is something he wants to get done. I'm hopeful that who will speak to a partisan audience, because whatever regulatory framework gets put in place, we want it to be lasting. We don't want it to be something that changes every time there's a change in power. And so I'm hoping that he will speak to a bipartisan audience. And I think that, you know, with his leadership and with the folks in the industry around the room being helpful in the process, like, I think we can get there. And so this is in you know, the US interest. I don't think innovation is something that is a more Republican and more democrat, and so I'm hoping he shows some leadership and tries to bring people together. I think that you know, stands in contrast to some of the other issues and debates going on, and so I think it's nice to have something where everyone can be on the same team.

Well, I mean, I think highlighting it as a priority is really sends a signal to Congress that this is something he wants to get done. I'm hopeful that who will speak to a partisan audience, because whatever regulatory framework gets put in place, we want it to be lasting. We don't want it to be something that changes every time there's a change in power. And so I'm hoping that he will speak to a bipartisan audience. And I think that, you know, with his leadership and with the folks in the industry around the room being helpful in the process, like, I think we can get there. And so this is in you know, the US interest. I don't think innovation is something that is a more Republican and more democrat, and so I'm hoping he shows some leadership and tries to bring people together. I think that you know, stands in contrast to some of the other issues and debates going on, and so I think it's nice to have something where everyone can be on the same team.

Well, it was great to have you here on our team for at least yeah today. Thank you so much for joining us in the studio. Kristen Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association with us on Bloomberg TV and radios, Thank you so much. Of course, a lot of the members of the Blockchain Association are at the White House right now as we speak. The gathering was slated to begin around one thirty today. Whole host of CEOs there at the White House to plead their case. You know, he's not going to be there, though former CEO used to be the emissary to Washington, Sam Bankman Free he's still looking for a pardon from President Trump. I wonder if we don't hear anything come on in this speech today.

Well, it was great to have you here on our team for at least yeah today. Thank you so much for joining us in the studio. Kristen Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association with us on Bloomberg TV and radios, Thank you so much. Of course, a lot of the members of the Blockchain Association are at the White House right now as we speak. The gathering was slated to begin around one thirty today. Whole host of CEOs there at the White House to plead their case. You know, he's not going to be there, though former CEO used to be the emissary to Washington, Sam Bankman Free he's still looking for a pardon from President Trump. I wonder if we don't hear anything come on in this speech today.

I wouldn't think that would be a headline, and we're used to that around here. We'll be listening, of course, when Donald Trump speaks three pm Eastern. They tell us we'll let you know right here on the Fastest Show in Politics with Kaylee Lines. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

I wouldn't think that would be a headline, and we're used to that around here. We'll be listening, of course, when Donald Trump speaks three pm Eastern. They tell us we'll let you know right here on the Fastest Show in Politics with Kaylee Lines. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Hello.

Hello.

We say that every Friday. What a week. We're doing it again, and thank you for meeting us here at the threshold of the weekend Jobs Day, showing some signs of softening more people permanently out of work. Payrolls came in a bit light one hundred and fifty one thousand the s. It was for one hundred and sixty unemployment four point one percent. We heard earlier today from one of the President's closest economic advisors, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, on Bloomberg Surveillance, speaking with John Ferroll.

We say that every Friday. What a week. We're doing it again, and thank you for meeting us here at the threshold of the weekend Jobs Day, showing some signs of softening more people permanently out of work. Payrolls came in a bit light one hundred and fifty one thousand the s. It was for one hundred and sixty unemployment four point one percent. We heard earlier today from one of the President's closest economic advisors, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, on Bloomberg Surveillance, speaking with John Ferroll.

Here's what he said, We're preparing you for news like today the great Jobs Report. I think one of the things that you see if you look at it is exactly the objectives of the Trump administration, of the fact that even though we got a lot of work to do, we got to pass the tax cuts and get this deregulation train rolling, is that we're going to be reducing government employment and reducing government spending and increasing manufacturing employment. And as you can see in the Jobs report today, you're already seeing a pivot in that direction. That's a huge one. So last year, one hundred and eleven thousand manufacturing jobs are destroyed by the Biden administration's policies, and in this month alone, in February, we got ten thousand manufacturing jobs and nine thousand auto jobs. And as you know, those auto jobs are here, they're going to be paid well, and they're here for a good long time. And that's really just sort of a down payment on the Trump policies that get a skyrocket into a golden ages as we get the tax cuts passed.

Here's what he said, We're preparing you for news like today the great Jobs Report. I think one of the things that you see if you look at it is exactly the objectives of the Trump administration, of the fact that even though we got a lot of work to do, we got to pass the tax cuts and get this deregulation train rolling, is that we're going to be reducing government employment and reducing government spending and increasing manufacturing employment. And as you can see in the Jobs report today, you're already seeing a pivot in that direction. That's a huge one. So last year, one hundred and eleven thousand manufacturing jobs are destroyed by the Biden administration's policies, and in this month alone, in February, we got ten thousand manufacturing jobs and nine thousand auto jobs. And as you know, those auto jobs are here, they're going to be paid well, and they're here for a good long time. And that's really just sort of a down payment on the Trump policies that get a skyrocket into a golden ages as we get the tax cuts passed.

So, Kevin, I hope you're right. But what I've heard over the last week or so regarded the economic data, when I spoke to the COMMAS secretary Howard Lutnik, Secretary Lutnik said that this was Biden data over the last month, that this was not Trump data. So if it's good, if it's is it Trump data? And if it's bad, is it Biden data? How does this work?

So, Kevin, I hope you're right. But what I've heard over the last week or so regarded the economic data, when I spoke to the COMMAS secretary Howard Lutnik, Secretary Lutnik said that this was Biden data over the last month, that this was not Trump data. So if it's good, if it's is it Trump data? And if it's bad, is it Biden data? How does this work?

Let's go into the specifics. So what specifically has happened is President Trump has made a big effort, along with Elon Musk, to find workers that are unproductive and to get them off the payrolls. And so we see government spending going down. So is that a Trump effect? Yes, Manufacturing, well, manufacturing, a job creation in the auto sector is happening because people are anxious about future tariffs and they're already on shoring production. Is that a Trump effect? Yes, but it's true that we've inherited a lot of terrible Biden policies. They want to get expensing gone and so on, and that's bad for capital formation. We're going to fix that. So we haven't fixed everything, but already the thing that we're fixing you can see in the data, and I think it's really quite remarkable.

Let's go into the specifics. So what specifically has happened is President Trump has made a big effort, along with Elon Musk, to find workers that are unproductive and to get them off the payrolls. And so we see government spending going down. So is that a Trump effect? Yes, Manufacturing, well, manufacturing, a job creation in the auto sector is happening because people are anxious about future tariffs and they're already on shoring production. Is that a Trump effect? Yes, but it's true that we've inherited a lot of terrible Biden policies. They want to get expensing gone and so on, and that's bad for capital formation. We're going to fix that. So we haven't fixed everything, but already the thing that we're fixing you can see in the data, and I think it's really quite remarkable.

Well, let's talk about the manufacturing data as well. We hand that over the past few weeks. You're familiar with ICM manufacturing. You're familiar, I'm sure with the respondents in the surveys, and this is what they had to say. The uncertainty about tariff keeps us cautious on spending. Customers are pausing on new orders as a result of uncertainty regarding tariffs. The incoming tarifts are causing our products to increase in price. Are you hearing the same message from businesses? Are you hearing something different?

Well, let's talk about the manufacturing data as well. We hand that over the past few weeks. You're familiar with ICM manufacturing. You're familiar, I'm sure with the respondents in the surveys, and this is what they had to say. The uncertainty about tariff keeps us cautious on spending. Customers are pausing on new orders as a result of uncertainty regarding tariffs. The incoming tarifts are causing our products to increase in price. Are you hearing the same message from businesses? Are you hearing something different?

Yeah?

Yeah?

What I'm hearing is a massive amount of onshoing. We've got more than what a trillion and a half dollars of commitments for new factories, and you're already seeing it in the auto data. I've mean, think about it, how hard it is to create a job in the auto sector. To have ten thousand in a month means that the attempt to ensure activity, to make it so that the jobs are created here and the money isn't just you know, fritter away to foreign countries, is exactly what President Trump's objective is. And it's right there in the data.

What I'm hearing is a massive amount of onshoing. We've got more than what a trillion and a half dollars of commitments for new factories, and you're already seeing it in the auto data. I've mean, think about it, how hard it is to create a job in the auto sector. To have ten thousand in a month means that the attempt to ensure activity, to make it so that the jobs are created here and the money isn't just you know, fritter away to foreign countries, is exactly what President Trump's objective is. And it's right there in the data.

Now.

Now.

I know that it's one month and the data could blip around, but I was really really stunned. And the other thing I was stunned about, which I know you guys follow this a lot. In fact, Anna Wong at Bloomberg is one of the best young economists I know it looking at the numbers is that it was a really bad flu season. And so when I adjusted for the flu, what I thought this number was going to be, it was way below the number that we got, and so I was very positively surprised by this number once you adjust for flu, and then you see that all the jobs, all these jobs that are created in manufacturing. And finally, if you go back and look at the Biden job record mid flow, the fact that they revised it down a million jobs last year. Don't forget that a lot of the job creation was government workers. It was government workers. About a quarter of the job creation over the last two years was an increase in government workers. And so if you take those out and then still have a strong job's number, that's a great, great economic outcome.

I know that it's one month and the data could blip around, but I was really really stunned. And the other thing I was stunned about, which I know you guys follow this a lot. In fact, Anna Wong at Bloomberg is one of the best young economists I know it looking at the numbers is that it was a really bad flu season. And so when I adjusted for the flu, what I thought this number was going to be, it was way below the number that we got, and so I was very positively surprised by this number once you adjust for flu, and then you see that all the jobs, all these jobs that are created in manufacturing. And finally, if you go back and look at the Biden job record mid flow, the fact that they revised it down a million jobs last year. Don't forget that a lot of the job creation was government workers. It was government workers. About a quarter of the job creation over the last two years was an increase in government workers. And so if you take those out and then still have a strong job's number, that's a great, great economic outcome.

Kevin Hassett at the White House earlier today on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington watching Wall Street off. The job's news didn't start well, Kaylee, but we have turned higher after the Chair of the Fed spoke earlier, j Powell seemed to soothe the markets into changing course here though bitcoin is still lower on this crypto summit thing.

Kevin Hassett at the White House earlier today on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington watching Wall Street off. The job's news didn't start well, Kaylee, but we have turned higher after the Chair of the Fed spoke earlier, j Powell seemed to soothe the markets into changing course here though bitcoin is still lower on this crypto summit thing.

Yeah, we're expecting to hear from President Trump at the crypto summit at three pm Eastern at least that's when it's scheduled, though he's also scheduled to sign executive orders just half an hour before that at two thirty pm Eastern time, And we already actually heard from him in the Oval Office today, so he spoke to reporters suggesting one of those executive orders he will be signing will restrict eligibility for government run student loan forgiveness for individuals who work for nonprofits that clash with the administration's immigration policies. This is not necessarily, though, the education oriented executive order we thought we might be getting from the President this week, as there had been reporting that he could be signing an EO to dismantle the Department of Education. The White House has suggested though, that at least on timing, that is fake news for now.

Yeah, we're expecting to hear from President Trump at the crypto summit at three pm Eastern at least that's when it's scheduled, though he's also scheduled to sign executive orders just half an hour before that at two thirty pm Eastern time, And we already actually heard from him in the Oval Office today, so he spoke to reporters suggesting one of those executive orders he will be signing will restrict eligibility for government run student loan forgiveness for individuals who work for nonprofits that clash with the administration's immigration policies. This is not necessarily, though, the education oriented executive order we thought we might be getting from the President this week, as there had been reporting that he could be signing an EO to dismantle the Department of Education. The White House has suggested though, that at least on timing, that is fake news for now.

Yeah, that was the tweet or the ex post I guess from the Press secretary yesterday. Some folks do again to your point, though, think it's just a matter of when that happens. President's been pretty clear about his intentions.

Yeah, that was the tweet or the ex post I guess from the Press secretary yesterday. Some folks do again to your point, though, think it's just a matter of when that happens. President's been pretty clear about his intentions.

Yeah, including the new Secretary, Linda mcmahonson that her job basically is to get herself out of a job eventually. But we want to go to someone who used to hold that job now, who I'm pleased to say is joining us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Former Education Secretary Margaret Spellings during the Bush administration, who is now president and CEO of the Bipartisan Policy Center. Madame Secretary, thank you so much for your time. If we could just begin with what has been a very clear effort on the part of Donald Trump to work toward getting rid of the Department of Education. We've already seen Linda McMahon, for example, offering buyouts to employees, some of which have been accepted. What would the immediate impact be, even if this is a slow unraveling on education in America.

Yeah, including the new Secretary, Linda mcmahonson that her job basically is to get herself out of a job eventually. But we want to go to someone who used to hold that job now, who I'm pleased to say is joining us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Former Education Secretary Margaret Spellings during the Bush administration, who is now president and CEO of the Bipartisan Policy Center. Madame Secretary, thank you so much for your time. If we could just begin with what has been a very clear effort on the part of Donald Trump to work toward getting rid of the Department of Education. We've already seen Linda McMahon, for example, offering buyouts to employees, some of which have been accepted. What would the immediate impact be, even if this is a slow unraveling on education in America.

Well, and I'm glad this is a segment that comes right after a discussion of jobs and the job's numbers, because we can't talk about jobs and good jobs without getting quickly to education and the quality of the American worker. And that's what we're focused on at the Bipartisan Policy Center. And you know what I'm hearing is, yes, there's a discussion around how federal programs should be deployed, but not a question about many of those federal programs. Obviously, there's still strong support for the title programs on the K twelve side that support low income and special ed students. They're still support for financial aid for higher ed students, although we ought to be smarter about how we do that in connecting it to the needs of the workforce. But it's basically, how are we going to organize and oversee the federal role? And so are there efficiencies to be gained. Heck yes, and I'm looking forward to working with Secretary McMahon and her team to talk about the best ways to do that. It has grown a good bit over time the federal workforces has been said, and how are we smarter about how to do that?

Well, and I'm glad this is a segment that comes right after a discussion of jobs and the job's numbers, because we can't talk about jobs and good jobs without getting quickly to education and the quality of the American worker. And that's what we're focused on at the Bipartisan Policy Center. And you know what I'm hearing is, yes, there's a discussion around how federal programs should be deployed, but not a question about many of those federal programs. Obviously, there's still strong support for the title programs on the K twelve side that support low income and special ed students. They're still support for financial aid for higher ed students, although we ought to be smarter about how we do that in connecting it to the needs of the workforce. But it's basically, how are we going to organize and oversee the federal role? And so are there efficiencies to be gained. Heck yes, and I'm looking forward to working with Secretary McMahon and her team to talk about the best ways to do that. It has grown a good bit over time the federal workforces has been said, and how are we smarter about how to do that?