Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Here on Tariff Tuesday, Welcome to the fastest show in politics. It's the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite radio channel one twenty one, and on YouTube, where you can find us right now search Bloomberg Business News Live. As we count down to the big speech nine ten pm Eastern, they tell us, but things have a way of sliding when everybody wants to handshake and a hug coming down the aisle. We will have special coverage of the President's addressed to Congress starting eight pm Eastern Time tonight on Bloomberg TV and Radio on Tariff Tuesday. They took effect earlier today. The President said this, as you heard live on Bloomberg yesterday, twenty five percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Here is the President of the United States.

Here on Tariff Tuesday, Welcome to the fastest show in politics. It's the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite radio channel one twenty one, and on YouTube, where you can find us right now search Bloomberg Business News Live. As we count down to the big speech nine ten pm Eastern, they tell us, but things have a way of sliding when everybody wants to handshake and a hug coming down the aisle. We will have special coverage of the President's addressed to Congress starting eight pm Eastern Time tonight on Bloomberg TV and Radio on Tariff Tuesday. They took effect earlier today. The President said this, as you heard live on Bloomberg yesterday, twenty five percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Here is the President of the United States.

Twenty five percent on Canada and twenty five percent on Mexico and that'll start. So they're going to have to have a tariffs so they can't come in and steal our money and steal our jobs and take our factories and take our businesses and expect not to be punished. And they're being punished by tariffs.

Twenty five percent on Canada and twenty five percent on Mexico and that'll start. So they're going to have to have a tariffs so they can't come in and steal our money and steal our jobs and take our factories and take our businesses and expect not to be punished. And they're being punished by tariffs.

Well they are as of now. Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum says, give me it till Sunday, having said we've got planned BC and D ready. That's when countermeasures, as we reported here at Bloomberg, will be announced. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau not waiting around. In fact, he spoke a short time ago as you heard live here on Bloomberg.

Well they are as of now. Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum says, give me it till Sunday, having said we've got planned BC and D ready. That's when countermeasures, as we reported here at Bloomberg, will be announced. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau not waiting around. In fact, he spoke a short time ago as you heard live here on Bloomberg.

Let's listen, there is absolutely no justification or need whatsoever for these tariffs today. Now, the legal text your government is using to bring in these tariffs is that Canada is apparently unwilling to help in the fight against illegal fentanyl. Well, that is totally false.

Let's listen, there is absolutely no justification or need whatsoever for these tariffs today. Now, the legal text your government is using to bring in these tariffs is that Canada is apparently unwilling to help in the fight against illegal fentanyl. Well, that is totally false.

Really interesting to hear the Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on the other network this morning saying this is not a trade war, this is a drug war. Resetting the trade policy is what comes April second. The reciprocal tariffs we're talking about if this is all about fentanyl, we know that Canada and Mexico are into very different places. And that's where we start our conversation with Josh Wingrove Bloomberg, White House correspondent. With us at the table, it must be a big day if you're here in person. Thanks for joining us. You know, there's nothing they can do in the meantime, apparently to prove that they've made good on some of these concerns. As justin Trudeau outlined the measures that have been taken to stop the flow of fentanyl, the money spent on securing the border. What is it that Donald Trump wants?

Really interesting to hear the Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on the other network this morning saying this is not a trade war, this is a drug war. Resetting the trade policy is what comes April second. The reciprocal tariffs we're talking about if this is all about fentanyl, we know that Canada and Mexico are into very different places. And that's where we start our conversation with Josh Wingrove Bloomberg, White House correspondent. With us at the table, it must be a big day if you're here in person. Thanks for joining us. You know, there's nothing they can do in the meantime, apparently to prove that they've made good on some of these concerns. As justin Trudeau outlined the measures that have been taken to stop the flow of fentanyl, the money spent on securing the border. What is it that Donald Trump wants?

I mean, it is the Prime Minister's believe. You heard him say today that this has been essentially a ruse, that there was no sincere effort on fentanyl that could have alleviated these He said he'd been holding out hope that it was you know, merely a bargaining chip or negotiating tactic. Obviously that has not been the case, or at least as we sit here now, is not the case. And so you know he's moving to essentially sort of trade war footing. And it's you know, the clip that you played from President Trump, Well, is it about factories being stolen or is it about fentanyl? You know, it is tough to say. And then Secretary of latink this morning saying this is a drug war, not a trade war. The trade war is just three weeks away. So I mean, all these things are kind of coming in together. And for those people who are just tuning in to these threats, I think a lot of people have been tuning this out right. Trump makes a lot of tariff threats, a lot of teriffreats. In the first term, he made a lot of them. The scale is so much bigger now. I think that's really important to understand. This is not just hitting steel aluminum, and in particular, only certain countries with steel and aluminum today has enacted these tariffs twenty five percent Canada, Mexico mostly, ten percent Canadian Energy, twenty percent on China, on the three biggest trading partners, also the three biggest customers of US products. He's picking a fight with the three countries that have the broadest firepower to fireback. This is structural and there's more stuff coming down the pipe next month or excuse me, next week. Yes, steal illuminum tariffs twenty five percent, potentially rising above that following that aprilsecond, both the reciprocal tariffs and the sectoral ones, both of which could pile on to Mexico and Canada by the way, and fuel these responses that we're already seeing.

I mean, it is the Prime Minister's believe. You heard him say today that this has been essentially a ruse, that there was no sincere effort on fentanyl that could have alleviated these He said he'd been holding out hope that it was you know, merely a bargaining chip or negotiating tactic. Obviously that has not been the case, or at least as we sit here now, is not the case. And so you know he's moving to essentially sort of trade war footing. And it's you know, the clip that you played from President Trump, Well, is it about factories being stolen or is it about fentanyl? You know, it is tough to say. And then Secretary of latink this morning saying this is a drug war, not a trade war. The trade war is just three weeks away. So I mean, all these things are kind of coming in together. And for those people who are just tuning in to these threats, I think a lot of people have been tuning this out right. Trump makes a lot of tariff threats, a lot of teriffreats. In the first term, he made a lot of them. The scale is so much bigger now. I think that's really important to understand. This is not just hitting steel aluminum, and in particular, only certain countries with steel and aluminum today has enacted these tariffs twenty five percent Canada, Mexico mostly, ten percent Canadian Energy, twenty percent on China, on the three biggest trading partners, also the three biggest customers of US products. He's picking a fight with the three countries that have the broadest firepower to fireback. This is structural and there's more stuff coming down the pipe next month or excuse me, next week. Yes, steal illuminum tariffs twenty five percent, potentially rising above that following that aprilsecond, both the reciprocal tariffs and the sectoral ones, both of which could pile on to Mexico and Canada by the way, and fuel these responses that we're already seeing.

So we're in it right now while we're considering conditions that could be met. The first time I've heard this was in that interview with Lutnik earlier today. We need to see material reduction in autopsied deaths from opioids. You cover this White House closer than anyone I know. Have you ever heard that line before? Is that the new metric?

So we're in it right now while we're considering conditions that could be met. The first time I've heard this was in that interview with Lutnik earlier today. We need to see material reduction in autopsied deaths from opioids. You cover this White House closer than anyone I know. Have you ever heard that line before? Is that the new metric?

The first time we heard that metric was about a week ago, okay, and that felt What does that mean to the Canadians like a goalpost, moving scenarios?

The first time we heard that metric was about a week ago, okay, and that felt What does that mean to the Canadians like a goalpost, moving scenarios?

What's material?

What's material?

They want to see a reduction and fentanyl deaths in the US, which of course everything why include I mean, I'll leave it to the secretary to say why he said that. A week ago, what we were told by White House official is fentanyl deaths in America need to come down before these tariffs go away. That was what we reported to the Canadians and Mexicans. That was new to them, because not only have they been saying, well, it's kind of unclear what we've been asked to do, but the public reasons were things like fentanyl at the border, in other words, seizures, border enforcement, that kind of thing, as opposed to domestic fentinel deats. I should note Canada, like many other Western nations, has its own problem with fentanyl deaths that they're trying to you know, most countries, developed economies are grappling with the scourge of this. So that was to the eyes of many Canadians a goalpost shift. To the eyes of the Americans, that is the current metric saying these tariffs are staying in place until that. So I should note, if you were friends the Canadian steel producer, you might be facing tariffs of twenty five on steel plus twenty five on allegedly on drugs today, plus the reciprocal tariff, which, by the way, Secretary Lutinik made clear today is still coming down as well. And we'll count for instance, the Canadian GST, which is a federal sales tax on all goods imported or not, as a tariff in responding kind. So you could have three tariffs if you're a Canadian steel producer, you can imagine what that does for ins and Stelco recently bought by Cleveland Cliffs, based in Ohio, home to say the vice president, wonder what they think about all this?

They want to see a reduction and fentanyl deaths in the US, which of course everything why include I mean, I'll leave it to the secretary to say why he said that. A week ago, what we were told by White House official is fentanyl deaths in America need to come down before these tariffs go away. That was what we reported to the Canadians and Mexicans. That was new to them, because not only have they been saying, well, it's kind of unclear what we've been asked to do, but the public reasons were things like fentanyl at the border, in other words, seizures, border enforcement, that kind of thing, as opposed to domestic fentinel deats. I should note Canada, like many other Western nations, has its own problem with fentanyl deaths that they're trying to you know, most countries, developed economies are grappling with the scourge of this. So that was to the eyes of many Canadians a goalpost shift. To the eyes of the Americans, that is the current metric saying these tariffs are staying in place until that. So I should note, if you were friends the Canadian steel producer, you might be facing tariffs of twenty five on steel plus twenty five on allegedly on drugs today, plus the reciprocal tariff, which, by the way, Secretary Lutinik made clear today is still coming down as well. And we'll count for instance, the Canadian GST, which is a federal sales tax on all goods imported or not, as a tariff in responding kind. So you could have three tariffs if you're a Canadian steel producer, you can imagine what that does for ins and Stelco recently bought by Cleveland Cliffs, based in Ohio, home to say the vice president, wonder what they think about all this?

Well, you know, we've heard from Canada that this could mean an immediate recession in the Canadian economy. But what's going on here? Look at this market, biggest loss yesterday of the year, the S and P five hundred back to where it was before the election, and we're not slowing down. Even crypto is falling. You've seen the reaction on the bond market. Donald Trump seems to pay attention to that. What does he think of this Wall Street reaction?

Well, you know, we've heard from Canada that this could mean an immediate recession in the Canadian economy. But what's going on here? Look at this market, biggest loss yesterday of the year, the S and P five hundred back to where it was before the election, and we're not slowing down. Even crypto is falling. You've seen the reaction on the bond market. Donald Trump seems to pay attention to that. What does he think of this Wall Street reaction?

Many of the president's close supporters that I talked to will say that the market reaction is one of the few things that is a true metric for him, that he believes strongly in it, and so you have to think that he's taking this seriously. But they're also saying, look, there could be some temporary pain. So I think some people in his administration kind of expected an initial reaction and the question is is it more prolonged or deeper? But I do think that President Trump just has been talking about this for a while. On the Canada stuff. He keeps raising Canada. He's not asked about Canada, Joe. You know, I'm Canadian and I'm in these rooms. You know, no one's asking about Canada. He just keeps circling back to it. And so I think that it is clear that Canada on is on his mind and he wants to, you know, pressure the country. And we should also know that in about a week there'll be a new prime minister and then potentially a couple months after that, maybe even another new one. So this is coming at a point of you know, transition in the leadership of the federal government in Canada.

Many of the president's close supporters that I talked to will say that the market reaction is one of the few things that is a true metric for him, that he believes strongly in it, and so you have to think that he's taking this seriously. But they're also saying, look, there could be some temporary pain. So I think some people in his administration kind of expected an initial reaction and the question is is it more prolonged or deeper? But I do think that President Trump just has been talking about this for a while. On the Canada stuff. He keeps raising Canada. He's not asked about Canada, Joe. You know, I'm Canadian and I'm in these rooms. You know, no one's asking about Canada. He just keeps circling back to it. And so I think that it is clear that Canada on is on his mind and he wants to, you know, pressure the country. And we should also know that in about a week there'll be a new prime minister and then potentially a couple months after that, maybe even another new one. So this is coming at a point of you know, transition in the leadership of the federal government in Canada.

Some have suggested he could help to get Trudeau's party reelected as a political back last.

Some have suggested he could help to get Trudeau's party reelected as a political back last.

Year, Trudeau's party was on the matt in polling. That has completely rebounded because of where we're going, and now it is a much closer election between the Conservative Party, which had looked like it was primed to be sort of like cruising to a strong majority government mandate, and now it.

Year, Trudeau's party was on the matt in polling. That has completely rebounded because of where we're going, and now it is a much closer election between the Conservative Party, which had looked like it was primed to be sort of like cruising to a strong majority government mandate, and now it.

Fascinus to say, we've only got about a minute left. Of course, saving all the good stuff for the end here, but this big speech tonight. The talking about two hours is that real?

Fascinus to say, we've only got about a minute left. Of course, saving all the good stuff for the end here, but this big speech tonight. The talking about two hours is that real?

What's I mean? A standard Trump speech is like an hour?

What's I mean? A standard Trump speech is like an hour?

You know, Oh, that's true. Democrats are talking about bringing noisemakers into the hall of night. What are we in for?

You know, Oh, that's true. Democrats are talking about bringing noisemakers into the hall of night. What are we in for?

I'm thinking of getting pizza, so I'll just speak for myself, you know. Look, he wants to do a few things. He wants to give a victory lap. Obviously the current market reaction will dampen that. Yeah, he does want to call for things, including additional border funding. We've heard, you know, Tom Holman talk about the need for further resources, so he is coming with a wish list, not just you know, a celebration of what's being done. But other than that, we're gonna hear a lot about the border. We're gonna hear a lot about a team of restoring the American Dream, which will dovetail on tariffs. We will hear stuff on Ukraine. Will be watching closely for a response to what we've heard President's landscap about an hour and a half ago, sort of opening the door again to further talks. So there'll be a lot of news in it. I think, uh It likes to make an ounse.

I'm thinking of getting pizza, so I'll just speak for myself, you know. Look, he wants to do a few things. He wants to give a victory lap. Obviously the current market reaction will dampen that. Yeah, he does want to call for things, including additional border funding. We've heard, you know, Tom Holman talk about the need for further resources, so he is coming with a wish list, not just you know, a celebration of what's being done. But other than that, we're gonna hear a lot about the border. We're gonna hear a lot about a team of restoring the American Dream, which will dovetail on tariffs. We will hear stuff on Ukraine. Will be watching closely for a response to what we've heard President's landscap about an hour and a half ago, sort of opening the door again to further talks. So there'll be a lot of news in it. I think, uh It likes to make an ounse.

He likes to make announcements, but if you want to get like, get in the in the mix with Democrats. Does he want to get into a little call and response all on Joe Biden.

He likes to make announcements, but if you want to get like, get in the in the mix with Democrats. Does he want to get into a little call and response all on Joe Biden.

I mean, I guess we'll see. I guess we'll see.

I mean, I guess we'll see. I guess we'll see.

This could be a night.

This could be a night.

Huh.

Huh.

Yeah. He doesn't have Pelosio over his shoulder now, so it's a little bit of a different dynamics.

Yeah. He doesn't have Pelosio over his shoulder now, so it's a little bit of a different dynamics.

So much body language to watch and of course much messaging ahead today. Josh Win Grove, thank you so much, Bloomberg White House correspondent, setting us up for the big speech on this tariff Tuesday. Our special covered starts eight pm Eastern Time. Stay with us on the fastest show in politics. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

So much body language to watch and of course much messaging ahead today. Josh Win Grove, thank you so much, Bloomberg White House correspondent, setting us up for the big speech on this tariff Tuesday. Our special covered starts eight pm Eastern Time. Stay with us on the fastest show in politics. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speech doesn't start till after nine o'clock tonight, and we could be sitting here with Rick and Genie around midnight on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Now'll call it the State of the Union. Because it's his first year. The President will deliver his address to Congress tonight, having said it will be big, remember truth, social I will tell it like it is, said Donald Trump, And well, we're just going to have to get together around nine o'clock to find out. That's when it starts. Our special coverage begins at eight pm Eastern time. The theme tonight the renewal of the American Dream. According to the White House, it's not planning to leave the Capitol and it's till almost eight make that eleven thirty Eastern time tonight, so we're in for the long haul. I suspect it's going to not only be a lot of handing in backslap, but maybe some deal making. I'll remind you the government runs out of money in ten days. First term Senator Elissa Slatkin, Democrat Michigan in the crosshairs on this tariff Tuesday. We'll be delivering the official party response will carry that as well. Does America have a State of the Union so called? And an Oscars ceremony in it? In the same week thirty two million people tune in to see Joe Biden's last date of the Union in twenty twenty four. It'll be interesting to see what happens here. It's Canada we're watching today and Mexico, of course, on this tariff Tuesday, twenty five percent in each direction north and south. And the retaliation, as I mentioned, has already begun. We heard from Justin Trudeau a little while ago here and they didn't wait, as I mentioned, implementing retaliatory terriffs of nearly one hundred billion dollars of imported US goods thirty billion effective immediately, another one hundred and twenty five billion in three weeks time. And Justin Trudeau, you know, he has a bit of a light touch, although he was clearly not very happy when he spoke to the press this morning. Doug Ford was smiling, the leader of Ontario, the Premiere of Ontario, smiling as he suggests cutting off energy for America. Here he is.

Speech doesn't start till after nine o'clock tonight, and we could be sitting here with Rick and Genie around midnight on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Now'll call it the State of the Union. Because it's his first year. The President will deliver his address to Congress tonight, having said it will be big, remember truth, social I will tell it like it is, said Donald Trump, And well, we're just going to have to get together around nine o'clock to find out. That's when it starts. Our special coverage begins at eight pm Eastern time. The theme tonight the renewal of the American Dream. According to the White House, it's not planning to leave the Capitol and it's till almost eight make that eleven thirty Eastern time tonight, so we're in for the long haul. I suspect it's going to not only be a lot of handing in backslap, but maybe some deal making. I'll remind you the government runs out of money in ten days. First term Senator Elissa Slatkin, Democrat Michigan in the crosshairs on this tariff Tuesday. We'll be delivering the official party response will carry that as well. Does America have a State of the Union so called? And an Oscars ceremony in it? In the same week thirty two million people tune in to see Joe Biden's last date of the Union in twenty twenty four. It'll be interesting to see what happens here. It's Canada we're watching today and Mexico, of course, on this tariff Tuesday, twenty five percent in each direction north and south. And the retaliation, as I mentioned, has already begun. We heard from Justin Trudeau a little while ago here and they didn't wait, as I mentioned, implementing retaliatory terriffs of nearly one hundred billion dollars of imported US goods thirty billion effective immediately, another one hundred and twenty five billion in three weeks time. And Justin Trudeau, you know, he has a bit of a light touch, although he was clearly not very happy when he spoke to the press this morning. Doug Ford was smiling, the leader of Ontario, the Premiere of Ontario, smiling as he suggests cutting off energy for America. Here he is.

A terrify on Canada, is a tacks on Americans. If they want to try to annihilate Ontario, I will do everything, including cut off their energy with a smile on my face. So and I'm encouraging every other province to do the same.

A terrify on Canada, is a tacks on Americans. If they want to try to annihilate Ontario, I will do everything, including cut off their energy with a smile on my face. So and I'm encouraging every other province to do the same.

Well, it wasn't actually smiling, but you get the point. Ontario Premiere says Starlink deal has been canceled. We'll add another log on the fire here, raising great questions about what tariffs mean for energy. Of course, Donald Trump tonight is going to say drill, baby, drill right. That was the centerpiece of his approach to inflation. Production ramped up. There's been some talk and we'll get to this with Tom Close about what Russia might be able to do to lower oil prices. But let's get into this conversation right now with the global head of Energy Analysis at OPUS, an authority on these matters, and always great to have Tom Close it with us here on Bloomberg, Tom, Happy tariff Tuesday. We're looking at the reaction in the markets here the world WTI West Texas crew has blow sixty eight dollars a barrel. What are we worried about?

Well, it wasn't actually smiling, but you get the point. Ontario Premiere says Starlink deal has been canceled. We'll add another log on the fire here, raising great questions about what tariffs mean for energy. Of course, Donald Trump tonight is going to say drill, baby, drill right. That was the centerpiece of his approach to inflation. Production ramped up. There's been some talk and we'll get to this with Tom Close about what Russia might be able to do to lower oil prices. But let's get into this conversation right now with the global head of Energy Analysis at OPUS, an authority on these matters, and always great to have Tom Close it with us here on Bloomberg, Tom, Happy tariff Tuesday. We're looking at the reaction in the markets here the world WTI West Texas crew has blow sixty eight dollars a barrel. What are we worried about?

Well, I think that yesterday's news from the OPEC group about increasing production in April has really, I hate to use this verb, trumped the tariff to rade for now because oil price has moved into the sixties substantially for both Brent and WTI on that news. We're not seeing that much of a reaction right now for Eightien companies and for the US companies that import from Canada. There's one exception, and that's in New England where Irving Oil, which has a three hundred and twenty thousand barrel of day refinery in the Maritimes, raised prices by twenty to twenty seven cents overnight. But it's pretty limited. Nothing to observe in the Mid continent. And the discount for Canadian crude, which has been about twelve to fifty to thirteen dollars, is about twelve eighty five right now. So if you didn't know about all of this stirm and drying with the tariffs, you would think that crude oil is reacting to other elements as they should with the OPEK plus agreement.

Well, I think that yesterday's news from the OPEC group about increasing production in April has really, I hate to use this verb, trumped the tariff to rade for now because oil price has moved into the sixties substantially for both Brent and WTI on that news. We're not seeing that much of a reaction right now for Eightien companies and for the US companies that import from Canada. There's one exception, and that's in New England where Irving Oil, which has a three hundred and twenty thousand barrel of day refinery in the Maritimes, raised prices by twenty to twenty seven cents overnight. But it's pretty limited. Nothing to observe in the Mid continent. And the discount for Canadian crude, which has been about twelve to fifty to thirteen dollars, is about twelve eighty five right now. So if you didn't know about all of this stirm and drying with the tariffs, you would think that crude oil is reacting to other elements as they should with the OPEK plus agreement.

That's something. How much does Donald Trump have to do with that decision, that announcement from OPEK.

That's something. How much does Donald Trump have to do with that decision, that announcement from OPEK.

I don't know if he has anything to do with it. You know, the year was setting up to be a very very cheap year for liquid oil, and I think it still sets up that way. And make the argument that the tariffs and the impact from that from a trade war is very deleterious to sort of global GDP. And there's nothing that impacts petroleum demand like global GDP growth. If you take the job cuts and you take the tariffs, you can probably cut into that growth, which most people thought would be somewhere between seven hundred and fifty thousand and one point two million barrels a day this year.

I don't know if he has anything to do with it. You know, the year was setting up to be a very very cheap year for liquid oil, and I think it still sets up that way. And make the argument that the tariffs and the impact from that from a trade war is very deleterious to sort of global GDP. And there's nothing that impacts petroleum demand like global GDP growth. If you take the job cuts and you take the tariffs, you can probably cut into that growth, which most people thought would be somewhere between seven hundred and fifty thousand and one point two million barrels a day this year.

What's going to be the real impact of this tariff program? And I know we're still trying to get our heads around it, Tom close up. Markets have been moving in a couple of different directions. You heard doug Ford there. If they want to annihilate Ontario, he says, I'll do everything, including cutting off their energy, with a smile on my face. What does it really mean for the industry though?

What's going to be the real impact of this tariff program? And I know we're still trying to get our heads around it, Tom close up. Markets have been moving in a couple of different directions. You heard doug Ford there. If they want to annihilate Ontario, he says, I'll do everything, including cutting off their energy, with a smile on my face. What does it really mean for the industry though?

On prices, well, if he were the premier or the governor or whatever of Alberta, it would mean a lot more because most okay, well that we get the heavy creud is from Alberta, from hardesty, and right now that's trading for about what it did beforehand, and you know, probably scraping around fifty five dollars a barrow right now. So the tariff ostensibly would add about five dollars and fifty cents to that, But we're not seeing it manifest itself in downstream markets yet.

On prices, well, if he were the premier or the governor or whatever of Alberta, it would mean a lot more because most okay, well that we get the heavy creud is from Alberta, from hardesty, and right now that's trading for about what it did beforehand, and you know, probably scraping around fifty five dollars a barrow right now. So the tariff ostensibly would add about five dollars and fifty cents to that, But we're not seeing it manifest itself in downstream markets yet.

Interesting. Now, let's say they stay in place a couple of months, because we don't have a great sense of what it would take to bring them down, and we're looking at Canada specifically here. I guess when it comes to crude oil, could this create a disruption in that trajectory, that lower price trajectory that you're talking about.

Interesting. Now, let's say they stay in place a couple of months, because we don't have a great sense of what it would take to bring them down, and we're looking at Canada specifically here. I guess when it comes to crude oil, could this create a disruption in that trajectory, that lower price trajectory that you're talking about.

Oh yeah, it can mean that the people in the mid continent, who typically have the cheapest energy prices and they might have the most expensive. Canada is a stranded seller. In other words, you know, they export four million barrels a day or just a little bit under that to the US, and they really don't have many other choices. They can move some stuff to tidal water on the Trans Mountain pipeline, but not a great deal more. The other problem is the US refiners in the center of the country are stranded buyers. It's going to be very very difficult for them to come up with crude oil they prefer if Canada is not selling it. But I think the sense out there and the oil markets down the energy markets is that the tariffs on Canada are going to be measured in days, not in weeks or months. I could be wrong on that. Mexico is a little bit more complicated because Mexico it is twenty five percent and a lot of the Mexican crewed goes into foreign trade zones, which is US refinery complexes that ostensibly could run Mexican crude and not have to pay the tariff because they'll be exporting refined products gasoline and diesel.

Oh yeah, it can mean that the people in the mid continent, who typically have the cheapest energy prices and they might have the most expensive. Canada is a stranded seller. In other words, you know, they export four million barrels a day or just a little bit under that to the US, and they really don't have many other choices. They can move some stuff to tidal water on the Trans Mountain pipeline, but not a great deal more. The other problem is the US refiners in the center of the country are stranded buyers. It's going to be very very difficult for them to come up with crude oil they prefer if Canada is not selling it. But I think the sense out there and the oil markets down the energy markets is that the tariffs on Canada are going to be measured in days, not in weeks or months. I could be wrong on that. Mexico is a little bit more complicated because Mexico it is twenty five percent and a lot of the Mexican crewed goes into foreign trade zones, which is US refinery complexes that ostensibly could run Mexican crude and not have to pay the tariff because they'll be exporting refined products gasoline and diesel.

Huh wow, fascinating Before I run out of time here, Tom, I heard a fascinating conversation of which earlier today on Bloomberg with Don Fitzpatrick. This is the chief investment officer at Soros Fund Management, considering the impact that Russia could have on this whole picture if we got a peace deal in Ukraine. Here's what she said on Bloomberg.

Huh wow, fascinating Before I run out of time here, Tom, I heard a fascinating conversation of which earlier today on Bloomberg with Don Fitzpatrick. This is the chief investment officer at Soros Fund Management, considering the impact that Russia could have on this whole picture if we got a peace deal in Ukraine. Here's what she said on Bloomberg.

The US really can't drill more. It's not in Saudi Arabia's best interests to produce a lot more. They need about ninety dollars a barrel to balance their budget. So the lever he can really pull there is Russia. And one kind of wild card would be Russia dropping out of Opek, and that would have a real impact on oil price in the context of moving it lower.

The US really can't drill more. It's not in Saudi Arabia's best interests to produce a lot more. They need about ninety dollars a barrel to balance their budget. So the lever he can really pull there is Russia. And one kind of wild card would be Russia dropping out of Opek, and that would have a real impact on oil price in the context of moving it lower.

Speaking this morning at the Bloomberg invest summit, how does that hit you, Tom Closa?

Speaking this morning at the Bloomberg invest summit, how does that hit you, Tom Closa?

I agree that that's a significant tail risk. If there's a raw prochemund with Russia, we're going to get Russian molecules of liquids or natural gas, and that could be very, very harmful to sort of the oil price universe at the moment. Now, that's probably a second half twenty twenty five event, if it's out there at all. But you know, there's some banks who retain bullish views and they go, well, Russia will comply with Opek. What in history has ever suggested that they would comply with restrictions that are placed upon them. So I agree with Dawn. I think she'd spot on on that.

I agree that that's a significant tail risk. If there's a raw prochemund with Russia, we're going to get Russian molecules of liquids or natural gas, and that could be very, very harmful to sort of the oil price universe at the moment. Now, that's probably a second half twenty twenty five event, if it's out there at all. But you know, there's some banks who retain bullish views and they go, well, Russia will comply with Opek. What in history has ever suggested that they would comply with restrictions that are placed upon them. So I agree with Dawn. I think she'd spot on on that.

What would that mean for crude oil in the second half of the price of crude?

What would that mean for crude oil in the second half of the price of crude?

You know, I think that with a Russian rop brochmant and with let's say an end to some of the tariffs for Canada, I think you're talking about crude oil, you know, having some trades at below sixty dollars a barrel. That's for WTI. Maybe about three or four dollars higher for Brent.

You know, I think that with a Russian rop brochmant and with let's say an end to some of the tariffs for Canada, I think you're talking about crude oil, you know, having some trades at below sixty dollars a barrel. That's for WTI. Maybe about three or four dollars higher for Brent.

Fascinating.

Fascinating.

It's hard to be bullish about crude oil right now, very very hard.

It's hard to be bullish about crude oil right now, very very hard.

Right despite the Well, you're gonna hear drill, baby, drill tonight for sure, Tom Close, in our remaining moment, what else do you want to hear that might make you feel better about prices this year?

Right despite the Well, you're gonna hear drill, baby, drill tonight for sure, Tom Close, in our remaining moment, what else do you want to hear that might make you feel better about prices this year?

I don't know. You know, we're going to hear about energy dominance, but you know, ironically, we achieved energy dominance during the Biden administration despite an adversarial relationship. So I don't think that most companies are going to be interested in bringing more hydrogardons to the market, with the exception of natural gas they can explore. So I think we'll get a lot of rhetoric and we'll get hyperbole, which is very predictable, but I don't think we'll get much in terms of policy change.

I don't know. You know, we're going to hear about energy dominance, but you know, ironically, we achieved energy dominance during the Biden administration despite an adversarial relationship. So I don't think that most companies are going to be interested in bringing more hydrogardons to the market, with the exception of natural gas they can explore. So I think we'll get a lot of rhetoric and we'll get hyperbole, which is very predictable, but I don't think we'll get much in terms of policy change.

It's always great to have you, Tom, I appreciate it very much. Tom Close, a global head of Energy Analysis at Opus. The straight take ahead of the address to Congress later It starts a little after nine pm West Texas crewed sixty seven eighty four. We're down about one percent today and apparently heading lower yet if Tom close A has the right take on things.

It's always great to have you, Tom, I appreciate it very much. Tom Close, a global head of Energy Analysis at Opus. The straight take ahead of the address to Congress later It starts a little after nine pm West Texas crewed sixty seven eighty four. We're down about one percent today and apparently heading lower yet if Tom close A has the right take on things.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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We're talking about Canada because we've heard about their retaliation. Sunday is when we'll hear from Mexico. Claudia Scheinbaum says her retaliation will be spelled out. She said she had a plan B, A C and a D. What are we in for from Mexico.

We're talking about Canada because we've heard about their retaliation. Sunday is when we'll hear from Mexico. Claudia Scheinbaum says her retaliation will be spelled out. She said she had a plan B, A C and a D. What are we in for from Mexico.

Look, I mean one of the things that is really in plan and is going to be hit hard here as the auto sector. Right, we import cars from Mexico, We import auto parts from Mexico. We also export auto parts to Mexico that go into a lot of those cars.

Look, I mean one of the things that is really in plan and is going to be hit hard here as the auto sector. Right, we import cars from Mexico, We import auto parts from Mexico. We also export auto parts to Mexico that go into a lot of those cars.

That come back in.

That come back in.

If those are then hit by tariffs on the Mexican side, it's just going to raise the costs even more than these US tariffs are. And you know, we'll see how it escalates if we move from plan A to B, to C to D. As things escalate, that the damage is just.

If those are then hit by tariffs on the Mexican side, it's just going to raise the costs even more than these US tariffs are. And you know, we'll see how it escalates if we move from plan A to B, to C to D. As things escalate, that the damage is just.

Only going to grow, all right, Seawandan and Bloomberg Senior writer for Economics here with us as we digest all of this tariff news. Thank you so much joining us here on bal Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio, and joining us now on the program live from Capitol Hill. As Republican Congressman Mark Alford of Missouri, who sits on the Small Business Committee. Congressman, welcome back to Bloomberg. It's good to have you, sir. When you consider what small businesses may be thinking today in the face of news of these tariffs, wondering what will happen to the cost they are facing and their ability to pass those costs on to the people who purchase goods and services from them, what would you tell them?

Only going to grow, all right, Seawandan and Bloomberg Senior writer for Economics here with us as we digest all of this tariff news. Thank you so much joining us here on bal Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio, and joining us now on the program live from Capitol Hill. As Republican Congressman Mark Alford of Missouri, who sits on the Small Business Committee. Congressman, welcome back to Bloomberg. It's good to have you, sir. When you consider what small businesses may be thinking today in the face of news of these tariffs, wondering what will happen to the cost they are facing and their ability to pass those costs on to the people who purchase goods and services from them, what would you tell them?

Interesting, you should bring up small business. We just had a meeting with a new administrator, Senator Kelly Luffler, who is intent on getting small business representatives into the rural parts of America. In particular, we requested that in our district just south of Kansas City. And I'll tell you what our small business owners are saying. Look, we know that they are going to be some price increases that they're going to have to pass on to consumers. But it is worth it if we can save one hundred thousand lives a year through the fentanyl poisoning. This past administration, the Biden administration, with the poorest borders, we're allowing this fentanyl poison to come up, and this toxins to poison and kill.

Interesting, you should bring up small business. We just had a meeting with a new administrator, Senator Kelly Luffler, who is intent on getting small business representatives into the rural parts of America. In particular, we requested that in our district just south of Kansas City. And I'll tell you what our small business owners are saying. Look, we know that they are going to be some price increases that they're going to have to pass on to consumers. But it is worth it if we can save one hundred thousand lives a year through the fentanyl poisoning. This past administration, the Biden administration, with the poorest borders, we're allowing this fentanyl poison to come up, and this toxins to poison and kill.

Our young people.

Our young people.

And so look, we get stuff delivered to our house just about every day, it seems like, from Amazon, and typically cheap goods, immediate gratification from China.

And so look, we get stuff delivered to our house just about every day, it seems like, from Amazon, and typically cheap goods, immediate gratification from China.

I'm willing to pay a little bit more if.

I'm willing to pay a little bit more if.

We can stop the poisoning, particularly of our young people that's coming through Canada and Mexico.

We can stop the poisoning, particularly of our young people that's coming through Canada and Mexico.

Well that's really interesting, Congressman. We appreciate that first hand account. If small business owners are telling you that, then they are prepared for some short term pain, as Donald Trump had previously warned.

Well that's really interesting, Congressman. We appreciate that first hand account. If small business owners are telling you that, then they are prepared for some short term pain, as Donald Trump had previously warned.

Look, I think small businesses have got kind of the short sheeted with the past administration. They have not gotten the capital and counseling that they need from the small business administration. It seems like Administra at Guzman was more concerned about registering Democrat voters than actually getting out with representatives and helping small businesses.

Look, I think small businesses have got kind of the short sheeted with the past administration. They have not gotten the capital and counseling that they need from the small business administration. It seems like Administra at Guzman was more concerned about registering Democrat voters than actually getting out with representatives and helping small businesses.

Grow Kelly Leffler is.

Grow Kelly Leffler is.

Changing that, and we are going to make sure that small businesses thrive. Part of that is going to be building small businesses in the rural area.

Changing that, and we are going to make sure that small businesses thrive. Part of that is going to be building small businesses in the rural area.

We're intent on doing that.

We're intent on doing that.

I know that these tariffs might be a temporary setback, but it is a short term pain.

I know that these tariffs might be a temporary setback, but it is a short term pain.

For a long term gain for America.

For a long term gain for America.

Reciprocal tariffs are what I think that we need to write the ship in America to gain the respect on the world stage, and Donald Trump is going to do that with my support and the Republican Conference.

Reciprocal tariffs are what I think that we need to write the ship in America to gain the respect on the world stage, and Donald Trump is going to do that with my support and the Republican Conference.

Well, I do wonder how long term is the term we're actually talking about here, Congressman, because the President was elected to a four year term off the back of concerns voters had about the economy, and if you look at polls that we've consistently seen in the last several weeks, they are concerned he's not doing enough to address the prices they are facing now, let alone what they might face in the future once you account for the impact of tariffs. What does he need to say about that tonight when he addresses you and your colleagues.

Well, I do wonder how long term is the term we're actually talking about here, Congressman, because the President was elected to a four year term off the back of concerns voters had about the economy, and if you look at polls that we've consistently seen in the last several weeks, they are concerned he's not doing enough to address the prices they are facing now, let alone what they might face in the future once you account for the impact of tariffs. What does he need to say about that tonight when he addresses you and your colleagues.

I think he's going to talk about his wins already opening up oil production in America, shutting down the border, essentially securing our border with more than ninety percent reduction in illegal crossings into our great nation. That puts such a strain on the fabric of America. And I think that some of the other wins that he has is going to go a long way to bringing down the interest rates in America, restoring If we can get this Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed through the House Reconciliation and the Senate Reconciliation Bill, that will go a long way to restoring confidence in the bond market, and in turn, I believe the Federal Reserve will bring down the interest rates. I am the chair of the Real Estate Caucus. We had a meeting heard from young people here on Capitol Hill who want to buy a home and they can't because supply shortages, because of over regulation, Inflation Reduction Act regulations, climate regulations that are driving some home builders out of business. They can't keep up with these regulations. It's adding twenty five percent to the cost of a home in Kansas City. I firmly believe that the economic policies that Donald J. Trump is instilling now is going to turn our economy around in a short order. Within the next two quarters and get our economy juiced again to where we're not going to have to worry about these reciprocal tariffs.

I think he's going to talk about his wins already opening up oil production in America, shutting down the border, essentially securing our border with more than ninety percent reduction in illegal crossings into our great nation. That puts such a strain on the fabric of America. And I think that some of the other wins that he has is going to go a long way to bringing down the interest rates in America, restoring If we can get this Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed through the House Reconciliation and the Senate Reconciliation Bill, that will go a long way to restoring confidence in the bond market, and in turn, I believe the Federal Reserve will bring down the interest rates. I am the chair of the Real Estate Caucus. We had a meeting heard from young people here on Capitol Hill who want to buy a home and they can't because supply shortages, because of over regulation, Inflation Reduction Act regulations, climate regulations that are driving some home builders out of business. They can't keep up with these regulations. It's adding twenty five percent to the cost of a home in Kansas City. I firmly believe that the economic policies that Donald J. Trump is instilling now is going to turn our economy around in a short order. Within the next two quarters and get our economy juiced again to where we're not going to have to worry about these reciprocal tariffs.

So if the cost of goods, though, continues to rise across the board, and we're looking at now the potential for a trade war in the words of Howard Lutnik, to begin on April second, how does that help to get more young people in affordable homes.

So if the cost of goods, though, continues to rise across the board, and we're looking at now the potential for a trade war in the words of Howard Lutnik, to begin on April second, how does that help to get more young people in affordable homes.

Well, we raise salaries. I think you're going to see that coming. The demand for intellect, the demand for good labor is there, and so our workforce. If we provide the education they need and the training they need for skilled labor, I'm big on that in our district, they're going to have good paying jobs and they're going to be able to afford. Not the hyper inflation that Joe Biden brought about, but I think a reasonable rate of inflation that we can all live with with a higher salary, higher earning power, and higher confidence in the American economy.

Well, we raise salaries. I think you're going to see that coming. The demand for intellect, the demand for good labor is there, and so our workforce. If we provide the education they need and the training they need for skilled labor, I'm big on that in our district, they're going to have good paying jobs and they're going to be able to afford. Not the hyper inflation that Joe Biden brought about, but I think a reasonable rate of inflation that we can all live with with a higher salary, higher earning power, and higher confidence in the American economy.

I do wonder about a potential wage price spiral that could stem from that, Congressman, if people are constantly having to demand more from their employers so that they can afford the cost of goods, and that buying power only continues to drive the cost of goods higher. But when we're considering people who have jobs or maybe negotiating their wages, of course, there are now thousands of federal workers who no longer do given the efforts of the Department of Government Efficiency. I know you had a town hall last week and you had to answer some questions about those layoffs and the spending cuts. Is this making your job and your communication with your constituents harder? If not the concept of reducing the federal government, but the way in which this has been done.

I do wonder about a potential wage price spiral that could stem from that, Congressman, if people are constantly having to demand more from their employers so that they can afford the cost of goods, and that buying power only continues to drive the cost of goods higher. But when we're considering people who have jobs or maybe negotiating their wages, of course, there are now thousands of federal workers who no longer do given the efforts of the Department of Government Efficiency. I know you had a town hall last week and you had to answer some questions about those layoffs and the spending cuts. Is this making your job and your communication with your constituents harder? If not the concept of reducing the federal government, but the way in which this has been done.

I love talking to our constituents, Democrats, Republicans, independent, politically agnostic. I represent seven hundred and seventy two forty seven individuals. We give the same level of conciered service in our three offices in our district. But look, you've got to have a conversation. I want to have a give and take with the constituents. We had a lot of people show up at this. It was really supposed to be a coffee Usually I have ten people show up.

I love talking to our constituents, Democrats, Republicans, independent, politically agnostic. I represent seven hundred and seventy two forty seven individuals. We give the same level of conciered service in our three offices in our district. But look, you've got to have a conversation. I want to have a give and take with the constituents. We had a lot of people show up at this. It was really supposed to be a coffee Usually I have ten people show up.

There was almost two hundred.

There was almost two hundred.

I asked the I had everyone write down their question on index cards. I read the question and then when I started answering, they would try to shout me down. That is not an exchange of ideas. That is not answering questions. I want to listen to people, but I also want to have a discussion, and that's not happening now because of organized disruptors who are trying to.

I asked the I had everyone write down their question on index cards. I read the question and then when I started answering, they would try to shout me down. That is not an exchange of ideas. That is not answering questions. I want to listen to people, but I also want to have a discussion, and that's not happening now because of organized disruptors who are trying to.

Make what we do ineffective.

Make what we do ineffective.

And that is not right for our constituents who really want to have discussions.

And that is not right for our constituents who really want to have discussions.

Just talk about organized disruptors on the other side of your isle tonight, Congressmen, Democrats may be bringing props, signs, even noisemakers. According to some reports, What will be the decorum in the hall later, Well.

Just talk about organized disruptors on the other side of your isle tonight, Congressmen, Democrats may be bringing props, signs, even noisemakers. According to some reports, What will be the decorum in the hall later, Well.

Decorum is a very big part of the Republican Conference. We will maintain decorum. I have no control over.

Decorum is a very big part of the Republican Conference. We will maintain decorum. I have no control over.

What the Republicans were doing. A lot of yelling last year at Joe Biden.

What the Republicans were doing. A lot of yelling last year at Joe Biden.

Well, there were some, but I think the vast majority of the Republican Conference, including myself, we're treating the officer of the presidentcy with respect, and I would encourage all members, Republicans or Democrats, to do the same, because, listen, this is a chance for the chief executive.

Well, there were some, but I think the vast majority of the Republican Conference, including myself, we're treating the officer of the presidentcy with respect, and I would encourage all members, Republicans or Democrats, to do the same, because, listen, this is a chance for the chief executive.

To come in.

To come in.

Although technically this is not a state of the Union address, it's a chance to hear what's on the President's heart, soul, and mind, and then for us as Congress of Body to work together where we can to bring about positive change for America. I think the president again, whether it's Joe Biden, or whether it's Donald J. Trump, President Obama, President Clinton, George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan, if you're standing out there as a chief executive, you deserve to be heard, and we deserve to give our respect to that office and.

Although technically this is not a state of the Union address, it's a chance to hear what's on the President's heart, soul, and mind, and then for us as Congress of Body to work together where we can to bring about positive change for America. I think the president again, whether it's Joe Biden, or whether it's Donald J. Trump, President Obama, President Clinton, George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan, if you're standing out there as a chief executive, you deserve to be heard, and we deserve to give our respect to that office and.

Our final moment together. Congressman, as you talk about working together where you can, is one of those areas going to be keeping the government funded beyond ten days from now? How will shut down be averted?

Our final moment together. Congressman, as you talk about working together where you can, is one of those areas going to be keeping the government funded beyond ten days from now? How will shut down be averted?

Well, I certainly hope so.

Well, I certainly hope so.

I was with the Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, Tom Cole yesterday. I'm now in the Appropriations Committee. We were talking about he has tried in earnest to work with his counterparts in the House and in the Senate to keep the government open by passing the twenty twenty five Yes, we're still trying to pass the twenty twenty five budget. We're a year behind, and they reached the top line number, but they wanted to hobble the President and Elon Muskin doge from doing their job of weeding out waste, abuse and fraud in the government and finding these savings reasonable savings for America. And we're just not willing to do that. Tom Cole, the Appropriation Share is not willing to do that. He did not walk away from negotiating. That is something that the Democrats put out there to try to win people over. I am I'm thinking now, and I think Senator Schumer put out a statement on social media today that they might be going for a shutdown, and if they do that as a Schumer shutdown, we under the direction of our leadership, I think, are going to move towards a continuing resolution that will fund the government to the end of September.

I was with the Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, Tom Cole yesterday. I'm now in the Appropriations Committee. We were talking about he has tried in earnest to work with his counterparts in the House and in the Senate to keep the government open by passing the twenty twenty five Yes, we're still trying to pass the twenty twenty five budget. We're a year behind, and they reached the top line number, but they wanted to hobble the President and Elon Muskin doge from doing their job of weeding out waste, abuse and fraud in the government and finding these savings reasonable savings for America. And we're just not willing to do that. Tom Cole, the Appropriation Share is not willing to do that. He did not walk away from negotiating. That is something that the Democrats put out there to try to win people over. I am I'm thinking now, and I think Senator Schumer put out a statement on social media today that they might be going for a shutdown, and if they do that as a Schumer shutdown, we under the direction of our leadership, I think, are going to move towards a continuing resolution that will fund the government to the end of September.

Let's finish out September.

Let's finish out September.

Keeping in mind Republicans do control both houses. It's great to have you back, Mark Alford, Republican from Missouri. As we look ahead to the speech tonight, we'll assemble our panel next Right here on Bloomberg.

Keeping in mind Republicans do control both houses. It's great to have you back, Mark Alford, Republican from Missouri. As we look ahead to the speech tonight, we'll assemble our panel next Right here on Bloomberg.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Cockley and Android Otto with the Burk Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Cockley and Android Otto with the Burk Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven.

Thirty checking on the S and P five hundred at levels that we haven't seen since November fifth, twenty twenty four. And I seem to believe Joe that something pretty important was happening on that day, and that was in fact election day, when, of course Donald Trump was overwhelmingly by electoral college standards and the popular vote elected president of the United States, and in doing so helped precipitate what had been a pretty remarkable market rally, with the S and P five hundred as recently as a few weeks ago at record highs, something he touted when speaking at the Saudi Investment Forum FII in Florida just earlier this month. And now here we are back at levels from before we knew that it was Donald Trump who would be the next president of the United States. And I can't imagine that is sitting extraordinarily well with him as he gets prepared to address the nation in a joint session of Congress this evening at.

Thirty checking on the S and P five hundred at levels that we haven't seen since November fifth, twenty twenty four. And I seem to believe Joe that something pretty important was happening on that day, and that was in fact election day, when, of course Donald Trump was overwhelmingly by electoral college standards and the popular vote elected president of the United States, and in doing so helped precipitate what had been a pretty remarkable market rally, with the S and P five hundred as recently as a few weeks ago at record highs, something he touted when speaking at the Saudi Investment Forum FII in Florida just earlier this month. And now here we are back at levels from before we knew that it was Donald Trump who would be the next president of the United States. And I can't imagine that is sitting extraordinarily well with him as he gets prepared to address the nation in a joint session of Congress this evening at.

The yeah that prompted a big old rally as we saw following the election. To the think that we have done a round trip like this and so quickly, so precipitously, is certainly freaking out a lot of investors. As we watch the markets here, it's kind of turned into a split screen once again. If you remember Donald Trump toward the end of his first term, every day he'd be out speaking about remember it was COVID. There'd typically be an update on COVID, on vaccines and so forth, and there'd be a split screen on every cable news screen with the financial markets. And we may be back in a world like that as indeed, the President addresses Congress later and it's where we start our conversation with our signature panel. They're in for the long haul today. Rick and Jeanie with us right now. Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital, republican strategist, and Genie Shanzo are democratic analyst and senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. What's your thought on that, Genie, knowing that Donald Trump thinks that the stock market is really the ultimate metric when it comes to his success, and the split screen, even if implied as he addresses Congress and the American people tonight means what.

The yeah that prompted a big old rally as we saw following the election. To the think that we have done a round trip like this and so quickly, so precipitously, is certainly freaking out a lot of investors. As we watch the markets here, it's kind of turned into a split screen once again. If you remember Donald Trump toward the end of his first term, every day he'd be out speaking about remember it was COVID. There'd typically be an update on COVID, on vaccines and so forth, and there'd be a split screen on every cable news screen with the financial markets. And we may be back in a world like that as indeed, the President addresses Congress later and it's where we start our conversation with our signature panel. They're in for the long haul today. Rick and Jeanie with us right now. Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital, republican strategist, and Genie Shanzo are democratic analyst and senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. What's your thought on that, Genie, knowing that Donald Trump thinks that the stock market is really the ultimate metric when it comes to his success, and the split screen, even if implied as he addresses Congress and the American people tonight means what.

Yeah, I mean, rationally, you would think he looks at these numbers and sees all that red and says, gosh, I didn't mean about those tariffs. Let's go back and pull back on that. Because the stunning thing about this is the gains that were made, as you guys were just talking about, have all been lost. And this is a self inflicted wound. This was not a natural disaster. It is not some kind of calamity that has befallen like so many presidents have dealt with. He has done this to himself and to the economy so far. You know, there is an old statement civilizations decline when you forget what's obvious. And what's obvious that we know is tariffs are really really bad for a good economy. Nobody outside of the administration and probably a lot of people in the administration disagrees with that. And so why he is doing this and if he keeps it up given these number, I just can't imagine that he will. But so far he is all.

Yeah, I mean, rationally, you would think he looks at these numbers and sees all that red and says, gosh, I didn't mean about those tariffs. Let's go back and pull back on that. Because the stunning thing about this is the gains that were made, as you guys were just talking about, have all been lost. And this is a self inflicted wound. This was not a natural disaster. It is not some kind of calamity that has befallen like so many presidents have dealt with. He has done this to himself and to the economy so far. You know, there is an old statement civilizations decline when you forget what's obvious. And what's obvious that we know is tariffs are really really bad for a good economy. Nobody outside of the administration and probably a lot of people in the administration disagrees with that. And so why he is doing this and if he keeps it up given these number, I just can't imagine that he will. But so far he is all.

In Well, Rick, we often here said and say it ourselves at Bloomberg that the stock market is not the economy that fundamentally they are very different things. And yet it does seem what the stock market is reflecting, at least right now, is concerned about the economy. So I do wonder what your take is on how Donald Trump is going to speak about this this evening, not just thinking of like where asset prices actually are, but what it is signaling about what his policies may do to what everyday Americans are experiencing when they go to the grocery store to take a look at their bills.

In Well, Rick, we often here said and say it ourselves at Bloomberg that the stock market is not the economy that fundamentally they are very different things. And yet it does seem what the stock market is reflecting, at least right now, is concerned about the economy. So I do wonder what your take is on how Donald Trump is going to speak about this this evening, not just thinking of like where asset prices actually are, but what it is signaling about what his policies may do to what everyday Americans are experiencing when they go to the grocery store to take a look at their bills.

Yeah, I think he's going to double down on this notion that he can reverse the current course of a general economic slowdown and ramp it up. He's got a little bit of success to talk about around oil prices, gas pumps, but you know, he's not going to let facts get in the way of a good story, right, So you know, he's going to talk about how already the country is moving forward in a better economic direction, and there are you know, some successes. Inflation has been held down and so on those things that is positive, he'll take full credit for that. And for all those negative things, I think they'll be in the basket of Joe Biden problems that he inherited, And I think Joe Biden will show up quite a.

Yeah, I think he's going to double down on this notion that he can reverse the current course of a general economic slowdown and ramp it up. He's got a little bit of success to talk about around oil prices, gas pumps, but you know, he's not going to let facts get in the way of a good story, right, So you know, he's going to talk about how already the country is moving forward in a better economic direction, and there are you know, some successes. Inflation has been held down and so on those things that is positive, he'll take full credit for that. And for all those negative things, I think they'll be in the basket of Joe Biden problems that he inherited, And I think Joe Biden will show up quite a.

Bit in the speech.

Bit in the speech.

He's been sort of going back to his campaign rhetoric recently and using Joe Biden as the person that caused all this havoc in the United States. And I wouldn't be surprised that all these things that are negative related to the economy are going to be Biden problems that he inherited.

He's been sort of going back to his campaign rhetoric recently and using Joe Biden as the person that caused all this havoc in the United States. And I wouldn't be surprised that all these things that are negative related to the economy are going to be Biden problems that he inherited.

Does he speak rick maybe to the temporary pain that he referred to at one point the way Mark Alford just did a moment ago that this is about something bigger than the stock market or making money, that he's trying to save American lives by stopping fent I left the border.

Does he speak rick maybe to the temporary pain that he referred to at one point the way Mark Alford just did a moment ago that this is about something bigger than the stock market or making money, that he's trying to save American lives by stopping fent I left the border.

Yeah, there's no question fentanyl will be the reason that these punitive tariffs have been put on Mexico, China, and uh in Canada. I mean, honestly, I mean, you know, the broad brush on this is awful, hard to swallow. I mean, Canada is not the reason millions of people or one hundreds of thousands of people have been dying from fentanyl, and yet they get tarred with the same brush as people who have been part of the poorest problem and that's Mexico and China.

Yeah, there's no question fentanyl will be the reason that these punitive tariffs have been put on Mexico, China, and uh in Canada. I mean, honestly, I mean, you know, the broad brush on this is awful, hard to swallow. I mean, Canada is not the reason millions of people or one hundreds of thousands of people have been dying from fentanyl, and yet they get tarred with the same brush as people who have been part of the poorest problem and that's Mexico and China.

So uh I do.

So uh I do.

I did see though that the China retaliatory tariffs want in effect kind of mimic that, you know, they're blaming bark beetles for bannon our lumber and and soybean fung guy for you know, the reason that they're they're going to raise tariffs on soybeans. I mean, they're not saying these are retaliatory tariffs. They're saying, oh, we've got defective products. And so this whole tariff war, you know, is turning into the sort of level of of sublime idiocy. I mean, like we're going to start blaming things on beetles and fungui and not really addressing the current problem. So I don't think Donald Trump is going to shy away from both the economic argument. These countries have been living off of our trade surpluses and you know, living off of our trade deficit, and in the meantime they've also been hurting our country. So he's going to unload both barrels tonight. I have no doubt about that.

I did see though that the China retaliatory tariffs want in effect kind of mimic that, you know, they're blaming bark beetles for bannon our lumber and and soybean fung guy for you know, the reason that they're they're going to raise tariffs on soybeans. I mean, they're not saying these are retaliatory tariffs. They're saying, oh, we've got defective products. And so this whole tariff war, you know, is turning into the sort of level of of sublime idiocy. I mean, like we're going to start blaming things on beetles and fungui and not really addressing the current problem. So I don't think Donald Trump is going to shy away from both the economic argument. These countries have been living off of our trade surpluses and you know, living off of our trade deficit, and in the meantime they've also been hurting our country. So he's going to unload both barrels tonight. I have no doubt about that.

Well.

Well.

And to Rick's point on Canada, as we're hearing this administration frame it not as a trade war but as a drug war. According to Customs and Border Patrol data, that amount of fentanyl that crossed the Canadian border last year was just forty three pounds compared to the twenty one thousand pounds that crossed over the southern border. So we should just bear those facts in mind as we consider not just only the justification for these tariffs that the President is using, but also the way in which it will afform inform what moves forward. Because Genie, if these tariffs are to be taken lower, presumably it would be because he sees some progress. Have we yet seen to find what kind of progress he is looking for? What is going to be enough for him to say, all right, now you've done what I asked.

And to Rick's point on Canada, as we're hearing this administration frame it not as a trade war but as a drug war. According to Customs and Border Patrol data, that amount of fentanyl that crossed the Canadian border last year was just forty three pounds compared to the twenty one thousand pounds that crossed over the southern border. So we should just bear those facts in mind as we consider not just only the justification for these tariffs that the President is using, but also the way in which it will afform inform what moves forward. Because Genie, if these tariffs are to be taken lower, presumably it would be because he sees some progress. Have we yet seen to find what kind of progress he is looking for? What is going to be enough for him to say, all right, now you've done what I asked.

Here we go.

Here we go.

The tariffs have taken them down?

The tariffs have taken them down?