Balance of PowerWatch Joe and Kailey LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition, Joe and Kailey speak with:
- Bloomberg National Security Reporter Courtney McBride about Ukraine troops' incursion into Russian territory.
- Sabato's Crystal Ball Managing Director Kyle Kondik about their new race ratings for the presidential election.
- Bloomberg Politics Contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino about JD Vance's comments about Tim Walz's military service.
- Bloomberg Politics Editor Laura Davison ahead of Donald Trump's press conference Thursday afternoon at Mar-a-Lago.
- Ipsos US Public Affairs President Cliff Young about new swing state polling.
- University of Arizona Professor Samar Klar about how the presidential race is shaping up in the Sun Belt.
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Welcome to the Thursday edition of Balance of Power. You made it to a little Friday and an important conversation as always here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube, where you can find us right now search Bloomberg Global News, Bloomberg Business News Live, whatever.
You'll see our live.
Stream up there, and we'll meet you here in the studio with important news today on the campaign trail. We have new polling and new strategy to talk about with our two tickets making their way across the country, well at least one ticket is you've got Harris Walls on the road show JD Vance Hot on their heels. Then there's the news today from Ukraine and it's very important and I'm guessing you might not hear about it anywhere else, which is why we want to spend some time and in fact start on this with the amount of coverage that we've given to the war in Ukraine, the biggest incursion now into Russian territory since Russia started its war against.
Ukraine more than two years ago.
Vladimir Putin confirming Ukrainian forces across the border into the kirk region. He's making it sound like a pretty big deal here, describing an operation as a large scale provocation, up to three hundred Ukrainian militants, eleven tanks, more than two hundred armored vehicles. But again that's Putin talking and the Kremlin. Let's get to the source right now. Courtney McBride is back with us at the table of course, from Bloomberg's National security team here in Washington.
Courtney, it's great to see you.
What do we actually know about this cross border incursion here.
Well, thanks for having me, Joe. As you said, I mean, this appears to be Ukraine's largest incursion into Russian territory. There have been some drone strikes on targets, but this is the largest operation. The Ukrainians are not officially confirming many of the details, but as you said, Vladimir Putin has acknowledged it. There is in fact a state of emergency declared in the Kursk region. We're also seeing, beyond the Russian acknowledgments of this apparent ground operation with tanks and armored vehicles, some concerns about a gas pipeline that runs through the area, and European gas prices are spiking on fears of a disruption.
We heard from John Kirby about this really interesting reactions. He said, yeah, well, we kind of need to talk to our friends in Ukraine to find out what really happened, but was careful with the language that he used, knowing that we have a policy that limits the use of US made weapons against Russia. He said there have been no change in those limits that he said are restricted quote to target imminent threats just across the border.
Unquote.
You could describe a lot of things that way, couldn't you?
One could? I mean, we've certainly seen similar verbiage from the State Department, from spokesperson Matt Miller. You know, the US is adamant that the policy hasn't changed and that the Ukrainians do not appear to be in violation of the policy. But you know, they have for some time encouraged the US to sort of take the shackles off and allow them to strike targets deeper into Russia using.
US provided weapons.
You wonder if we start seeing more of this now.
I mean, it remains to be seen. We'll see, you know, whether this operation is a success, whether they can hold the territory. If they gain it.
You can qualify a lot of things as an imminent threat, of course, and that helped to justify our providing F sixteen's to Ukraine. I guess technically they were from the Netherlands, but they'll be carrying US made weapons. And I bring it up because we actually saw an image of President Zelensky issued actual footage of these jets flying over.
Ukraine, so we know they have them, we know they're in the air. At what point are they operational?
Well, I mean that remains to be seen. And the US and European partners are providing training, but it'll be up to the Ukrainians to decide how and when to employ them. I think a lot of officials, both in Ukraine and elsewhere have sort of sought to temper expectations about the impact given the limited numbers of aircraft and pilots, and.
Some even question the role that plays in the overall strategy here. For Ukraine, Courtney, we haven't talked as much about Ukraine because we've spent so much time on what's happening in the Middle East, and this is a precarious moment now. I saw a statement from Tehran a few days ago saying that the delay in retaliation was part of the retaliation, that suggesting they're playing with the Israelis by waiting to respond to the attacks, the assassinations of the officials from Hamas and Hesblah.
Do we have any reason to believe this has been called off?
Not yet, but certainly the US and allies and partners not US in the region but in Europe have been making their case for either a non response or a more limited response from Iran. But you know, as you said, part of this, this waiting game could be strategic. We really don't know. The Iranians have said that they are not looking for an all out war, but that they have the right and the legal justification to retaliate against Israel for these assassinations.
I suspect this could be at any moment thing We'll run out in the newsroom and find you.
For years, keep us posting on what you're hearing.
One of the most informed on our national security team, Courtney mcbrian, Thanks for coming in, Courtney.
It's great to see you. Thanks back here on.
Bloomberg Radio and on YouTube, where you can find us now search Bloomberg Global News. As I mentioned, our live stream is up and running as we balance all of this with the campaign trail. Of course, geopolitics part of the conversation here, whether the campaigns want it to be or not. And we're looking at some motion here, more fluidity in the map. We talked yesterday about some moves the Cook Political Report, and today it's the good people at Savado's Crystal Ball, the Center for Politics, and we talked to, of course Larry Sabada, Kyle Conduck and the rest of the group pretty often here, so we pay attention when they start moving their ratings, and that's what's happening right now. Important states. We talk about the swing states that are going to decide this election. Here we go, in this case Georgia. We're also talking about Minnesota and New Hampshire. And Kyle conduct the managing editor of Sabada's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, is with us to get into the rationale behind the changes.
Kyle, it's good to see you. Thank you.
Are these simply about the changes on the Democratic ticket or is there more at play?
I think that's fundamentally what's going on. I think that Harris taking over as sort of restored the race to where it was several months ago, which was more of a true kind of fifty to fifty toss up sort of race. I think the race kind of tilted to Trump following the first debate, and Harris has restored Democratic fortunes, and so you know, there's sort of a there's like three different categories of states. There are all the states that voted for Trump in twenty twenty. Trump is still favored in all those states, although North Carolina is maybe the shakiest.
Part of that.
There's all the states that voted for Biden by more than his national popular vote margin four and a half points. Those are all in the likely or safe Democratic columns and our ratings. And then you've got the six states that voted for Biden but where he did worse than they did nationally Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Those are all toss ups for it, so those are That's really where I think the focus of the race is. Maybe North Carolina is a part of that, maybe not, But I think we're talking about six or seven states deciding this election.
You upgrade Democrats chances, as I mentioned in Minnesota here, is that because of the selection of Tim Walls.
I think it has a little bit to do with it, although we probably would have done that anyway, given that the polling situation for Harris and Minnesota has gotten better. You know, it's like the rising tide lifts all boats. So you know, she pulled the sort of states at the center of the map back and the toss up status. And she's also I think restored the Democratic margin in places where I think the Trump campaign was talking about making moves prior to Biden getting out, but now I don't expect that they're going to do so, unless you know, maybe this race evolves in such a way that Trump moves back into being a clear favorite. Maybe the Republicans feel like they could expand the battlefield now, But right now, again, I think the battlefield as those six or seven states we're talking.
About, sure is you're moving Georgia to toss up from Lean's Republican, which fulfills or helps to fulfill part of the narrative Kyle, that the sun Belt could be as friendly to Kamala Harris as the Rust Belt, or at least there might be another path there. How do you look at that since the change the top, Yeah.
Look, I think that Biden's map was more kind of closely focused on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, given that he was generally behind in those Sun Belt states. That's not necessarily the case. Maybe Trump is still up and you know, tiny amount. There was a poll that came out this morning from ARP done by a Democratic or Republican pollster, two respected ones, and they had that Trump about forty six forty four in Georgia, which is you know, pretty pretty much pretty much a tie when you think about the margin of error, And there have been other polls that have shown the race basically tied in that state, with Harris doing better than than Biden was doing. You know, I gotta be honest, So I think for a Democratic presidential nominee, I think if she loses any of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan would be a really bad sign for her chances on el night, maybe she could afford to lose Wisconsin and make up for it with like Georgia or Arizona. I do think if, if, if Harris loses either Pennsylvania or Michigan, I just don't really see a path of victory for her.
I don't.
I don't really see this being, you know, cracking open the sun Belt but losing the Rust Belt.
I just don't.
I just don't think that that we should really expect something like that from history. Maybe that's how the campaign develops. What I think it's on line.
Now, Well, that's important analysis because that has been part of the more recent conventional wisdom here. Either way you cut it, Kyle, the Harris Walls campaign is looking at the swing states. We count seven here in our poll at Bloomberg. You're looking basically at six in the form of toss ups on your map. And the campaign is up with a new ad. Of course, they're just getting some of these ad campaigns off the ground here, only been in business for two weeks or so. We got our look at a new one here. This is targeting Latino voters in swing states. Kyle, just a taste of the ad here. We'll have you respond.
When you're raised by an immigrant mother, you learn what's possible with the termination, and the termination is how Gamala Harris when from working in McDonald's to prosecutor state attorney general, you a senator and our vice president in only one generation.
That is decidedly Kyle not an ad that the Trump campaign could make for Donald Trump in this case.
Where are we here in the.
Effort to outidentify each other when it comes to Kamala Harris.
You know, I sort of wonder about messaging like that, because I think sometimes Democrats can sort of fall in this trap of playing this sort of like I don't know, sort of like pan racial identity messaging specifically Latino voters, and I think there's some people who follow that particular demographic who don't necessarily think that's the right way of doing it.
Now.
Of course, they're just trying to introduce Harris here, but you know, I think it's important for the campaign to recognize that, you know, Latino voters have the same concerns that lots of other different kinds of voters do. And I've seen some criticism of that kind of messaging from people who study the Latino voter. So I'm interested to see how they how they do that. Certainly it's important for the Democrats to specifically focus on Latino voters because you know, there was some real erosion there in twenty twenty compared to twenty sixteen, and you could imagine that continuum.
Pan racial is an interesting term. Kyle, do these not poll well? Or do you just question the optics of the strategy.
Well, look, I you know again, I'm I'm maybe I'm out a little bit ahead of my skis here just because I'm I wouldn't consider myself a specific expert in that particular group, but just in sort of reading about messaging with Latino voters over the years, you know, there was some criticism I think of how about Clinton and Biden kind of message to Latino audiences, you know, kind of talking about almost the sort of Latino identity as part of the as part of the messaging. And there's some thought that maybe that's not the right way to go about it. But again, I would I would defer also to people who study this particular group more in depth.
Spending time with Kyle Condick at Sabato's Crystal balt University of Virginia Center for Politics, and I can't talk to you, Kyle without drilling down ballot a little bit.
Here.
We had an important primary night this week saw Corey Bush dispatched in a primary uh, and next week we're looking at elan Omar in a primary battle in her home state. I just wonder where you think we are here and what we're learning in the composite of these results that have followed the presidential campaign being settled, but are still showing some pretty important political battles here on the state and congressional levels.
Yeah, there's been this sort of battle between I guess, a PAK or forces associated with APAK and some of the more progressive left wing members of Congress. Who are you more suspicious of israel I guess? And then sort of ongoing Israeli Balstinian conflict. And you know, we saw Jamal Bowman lose in New York recently, and now we've seen Cory Bush lose to a Canada who may kind of ran against her, maybe more from from the center now. I think also Bowman and Bush had other problems beyond you know, raising the ire of of APAC. You know, going into the primary season, it seemed like of you know, the so called squad, that that Bush and Bowman were the ones who were the most vulnerable, and that's sort of born out and how this worked out. Omar does not din't necessarily seem to be in as bad as shape as Bowman and Bush were. I guess you know we're gonna find out next week.
We shall and we'd love to stay in touch with you on all of this. Really interesting on these three states, Kyle, thank you for being here. Kyle Condicck at Sabada's Crystal Ball with great analysis here on Ballance of Power.
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I'm Jill Matthew and washing and balancing the markets and politics here once again today as we assemble our panel with what feels a lot like a swift boat campaign underway here suddenly, with regard to Kamala Harris's new running mate, Tim Walls, now we dipped our toes into these waters. Yesterday with our panel, But there's a lot more today as the Trump camp seems to really be investing itself in this. It's something that we're reading about in the tip sheets, the newspapers. It's been a lot of reporting among the TV networks, and of course JD. Vance came out with it yesterday during a news conference in Michigan. Keeping in mind that we've heard these accusations before when Tim Walls was running for governor. But Chris Losovina, who in fact helped to drive the swift boats, what was it for truth campaign against John Kerry? Of course he's helping to run the Trump campaign. And he says, quote, the two biggest sins in the military are claiming credit for decorations you don't have or claiming combat action you did not participate in. He says, this much is certain. He's guilty of at least one of them.
JD.
Vance talked about it yesterday at his news conference. Here's what he said.
I wondered, Tim Waltz, when were you ever in war? When what was this weapon that you carried into war? Given that you abandoned your unit right before they went to Iraq? And he has not spent a day in a combat zone. What bothers me about Tim Waltz is the stolen valor garbage. Do not pretend to be something that you're not. And if you want to criticize me for getting an Ivy League education, I'm proud of the fact that my mamm all supported me, that I was able to make something of myself. I'd be ashamed if I was him and I lied about my military service like he did.
Those are heavy accusations, and of course it's coming in that case from a Marine Corps veteran accusing Tim Walls of abandonment, essentially going a wall and we've heard about this before, as I mentioned during the gubernatorial campaign, can put a fire point on these and we are going to This's been a lot of great reporting from political from ABC News, the Washington Post and other groups that have sort of aggregated everything that we know here about each of the three or four accusations.
But let's get the panel in.
Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano are back together today Bloomberg Politics contributors. Of course, Rick a partner at stone Court Capital, and Genie a political science professor at Iona University. Rick, you've actually had a brush with this type of politics, maybe more than once. When I think about Donald Trump criticizing John McCain's service, this is somewhere you don't go unless you know what you're talking about here, And I wonder how nervous this is making you as we go further down this road.
Yeah, actually, I'm not even sure you talk about this even if you know what you're talking about. You know, John McCain stuck his neck out during the John Kerrey swift Boat episode and said, you know what, all service is honorable service. Then when he was running against you know, George W. Bush, there were questions about, you know, his service in the Texas National Guard, and John McCain, his opponent at the time, stuck his neck out and said all military service is honorable service, and he would do the same today. I'm highly confident that the idea that anybody is called on the carpet for, you know, serving in its countries uniform military service, whether that's in the National Guard or the active duty, is absolutely ridiculous. I mean, so we have trouble recruiting people into the military right now. What do you think, mister Vance, you're doing to the morale of people who want to enter the guard, who want to enter the uniform service, And what message are you giving them?
Oh?
You know mine, you'r p's and q's. Because even military service is going to be subject to political criticisms. And this all as the vice president of the guy who, according to a great American US military leader, John Kelly, a Marine general and former Secretary of Homeland Security, said Donald Trump disparaged military service to those who served in World War Two, calling him suckers and losers. I mean, like, I don't think you know, Vice President, how many Vance is really understanding the pandora's box that he wants to open up on his boss. If we want to talk about military service.
Let's talk about Donald Trump.
Draft Dodger five times over. According to his critics, he claimed to have bone spurs.
Right Rick.
That's why we had Democrats on the air here yesterday saying, yeah, let's have that debate. Let's do that right now, Jeanie. But let's also get specific about what we're talking about. Abandonment is what JD. Vance said. And I'm curious what you think about this. Waltz did retire to run for Congress right before his unit was deployed. But how soon before? This is now ABC News compiling this alongside Politico. Walls fired paperwork for his congressional run in February two thousand and five, Genie, that's a month before reports emerged that the Minnesota National Guard might be deployed. He announced his run in May of that year, two months before the directive was officially issued. Does that qualify as abandonment?
Of course not.
I mean, this is a ridiculous argument. The man served twenty four years in the National Guard.
You sign a contract to serve.
He served even though it was determined he had been injured and could have stepped down, could have retired. He continued to serve until he decided to retire after twenty four years. So it's a ridiculous charge to say he abandoned. I really don't know what they're talking about, the abandonment, the other one about his time spent in combat. I think that is something we should hear Tim Waltz address. They have already issued statement addressing some of this and congratulating jd. Vance on his service as a military reporter. No harm there either. You do not have to serve to serve honorably in fact, many people in our military serve in other ways. So I think this veteran on veteran attack that jd Vance is launching, this disparaging of what people are doing in the military at a time, as Rick has mentioned, we need people to sign up, particularly young people to enlist. I think this is a lot of distraction because they're throwing spaghetti at the wall trying to figure out how best to attack this guy. This is simply not going to work. And by the way, we're not in two thousand and four anymore.
Well, there's a lot to be said for that genie in terms of this idea of serving in combat.
Rick.
The Harris campaign circulated a video of Walls calling for background checks for gun purchases. This is what jad Vance was talking about. With him holding the weapon. He said, we can make sure that those weapons of war that I carried in war are only carried in war unquote.
Should he have to explain.
That, Yeah, I mean that's that's fair in the sense that you know, he didn't serve in a combat zone, but he served overseas. But again, we're just sort of parsing a man's commitment to the military for twenty four years you know, easily explain that you can throw your campaign manager under the bus, and said, I never approved that language.
That would be easy.
You know, not that I'm for throwing campaign managers under the bus, but the reality of this is it's a little bit much to do about nothing in that regard. And the other thing I would say too is, you know, I know that there's a rush to define Harris and and Walls, but like, I think the idea that you're going to pick this ground to fight on, which is very vulnerable to attack to Donald Trump the head of the ticket, is a very dangerous strategy. I mean, if I were Jade Vance in the Trump campaign, I say, you know, maybe we shouldn't be really using this as our front line of attack because we really are vulnerable at the top of our ticket with this, as you've pointed out, and so I really don't get it as a tactic.
There are a lot of other.
Things on the economy, on social programs, on the immigration front that you could easily go after these folks that are actually.
Real issues to voters.
And I can't imagine a scenario where you know, veterans even entertain this kind of discussion. So who are you appealing to right now, So I just don't get it as a campaign tactic.
You know, we heard from another veteran, Rick, and I think he's speaking direct to the point that you've been making here now for a couple of minutes, and that's Mark Kelly, of course, a former Navy fighter pilot as well NASA astronaut and was on the short list. He could be bitter right now, but his statement on this quote, you both deserve to be thanked for your service, don't become Donald Trump. He calls veterans suckers and losers, as Rick referenced, and that is beneath those of us who have actually served. On quote, it's inclusive and it's thankful.
Genie.
Would any of this be happening if it didn't actually work against John Kerry?
You know, I'm not sure. I think Chris Lasovita, who as you mentioned, was the architect behind the carry and is now co sharing Donald Trump's campaign or co managing it. It's worked for him before, he's trying it again again. I think they are throwing spaghetti at the wall trying to see what sticks. But I'll tell you what has several Republicans nervous is that even if these attacks were founded, which most people believe they are not, they are going against the vice presidential nominee or candidate. What about Kamala Harris? How does this make any sense that you attack this guy, Tim Waltz, who's second on the ticket, and leave Kamala Harris running around getting thirty six million dollars in twenty four hours, huge huge childs at these rallies making these cases, and she's sort of gone unscathed. So I don't suspect that will happen for long. But that's what I mean when this makes very very little sense, And of course it makes very little sense if it came out of the mouth of Donald Trump, who, as you mentioned himself, did not serve and claimed it was because of bonespurs but famously couldn't remember what foot bone spurs were in. So it is an argument and a tactic that's not going to succeed. And I think Tim is gonna welcome speaking to it and about it. And I think, by the way, I'm so glad you raised the Kelly statement. He's absolutely right. Everybody should be thanked for their service. JD. Vans And and Waltz included obviously Mark Kelly as well.
No, let's do it on the air. Then I thank them both for their service. I never served, And I think this is an absolutely wild conversation that we're having in twenty twenty four.
It's not slow in sales with the hat. Did you guys see the Camo hat?
This is the apparently the new status symbol for Democrats. According to Axios, this came out just a couple hours after the Tim Wall's choice had been announced. Forty dollars Camo hat sold out in thirty minutes, three thousand orders totally, almost a million dollars in purchases. Boy, who needs NFTs?
I guess it's now only available for pre order. Both of you guys want one of those?
Right?
Did you order one? Genie?
I didn't.
I am way behind. But how much do you want to bet that Donald Trump's not wearing one of those when he comes out for his press conference.
I'm believing that's true.
We'll see how many Camo hats are in the crowd for the next Kamala Harris rally. But this is, you know, maybe this is another metric like crowd size, that we shouldn't pay too much attention to.
Rick, Yeah, I think crowd size and hats are fine, but like I still like the dark Brandon hat. I want to bring those back.
I'm with you, God.
I love the fact that we're going to be in Chicago with both Rick Davis and Geanie Shanza.
We got a lot to learn between now and then. I'll tell you that.
Right now, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on EPO, car Play, and then Roudo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
What will we hear from the former president and Republican nominee this afternoon?
Well, it's interesting.
I mean, I guess you can sort of guess what we're going to hear. He's got a stump speech. We know the points he wants to hit, but will involve report a news conference supposed to have questions and answers, and the last time he called one and we carried it, he spoke for about forty five minutes without calling on a single reporter. So this will be interesting to see if he's trying to make the point that Kamala Harris doesn't hold news conferences.
If he actually does, yeah, and it's worth keeping in mind. We will see him do this today. We will also see him in Montana tomorrow for a rally. But we haven't been seeing him as frequently as we've been seeing his vice presidential nominee Jadie Vance or the Democratic ticket is they're the ones that are chriss crossing the swing states this week, and Donald Trump has been at home.
Some interesting new polling out.
We got something earlier from Marquette University, Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump head to head nationally six points, Kayley fifty three to forty seven.
We're going to drill.
Down on some of the swing states coming up in a little bit with Cliff Young at IPSOS, always showing up with the goods. When we see Cliff Young. He'll be with us in a couple of moments right now. Laura Davison Joints from Bloomberg Politics team here in.
Washington, d C.
It's great to see you, Laura, as we try to get a sense of the direction here in this campaign, what the issues are going to be, because the Trump camp has been talking about Tim Wallace's military service more than the border more than the economy, more than abortion, geopolitics. Is this just a distraction or an effective strategy.
They're still struggling to figure out what their messaging is. You know, Trump, you know, has had a bad week last week, you know, and when he went to the Nationalization of Black Journalists and insulted Harris Vance As He's been on the campaign trail this week, been doing a lot of insulting, but not a lot of redirecting to what their message is. So that's partially why you see Trump, you know, he's trying to reclaim the mantle here today with this press conference. He wants to change the conversation. He also, you know, believes himself to be the best messenger for his campaign, so this allows him to steal back the spotlight at least for a little bit. The question is, though, you know, will this go off the rails or will this you know, be a time for him to sort of reframe and reset his campaign.
So it becomes a question of discipline. Then when we've been having the conversation this cycle that the campaign is we're disciplined this time around. The campaign, specifically the candidate is another thing entirely. Laura as we've come to learn just within the last few weeks alone, you could find many examples, including that appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists conference.
Yeah, and he's been agreeing to do a lot more events that are sort of outside the realm of normal, you know. So earlier this week he did a live stream for mar Alago for almost an hour and a half with a with a gamer, a video game celebrity, but someone who's had some ties to white nationalist and has been a controversial figure.
You know.
He also has said he's going to do this interview with Elon Musk. On Monday, Sol confirmed that he has not denied it and he should have talked around it on X. So we are assuming this is happening for now, but we still don't have any details about you know, is this going to be on video, is it going to be live? You know, that's it's still all out there twisting in the wind.
Does Trump want his military record to come up or are they doing this so.
It doesn't you know, that's a really good question.
You know.
It's it's also interesting too that you know, Vance does have a military record. He hasn't really been talking that as much on the campaign trail, but military records, you know, that's kind of back to like two thousand and eight and John Kerry and all of that. So this is a little bit of a throwback, you know. I think it's it's interesting just as the military becomes something that is less touches fewer Americans, that the fewer Americans have an intersection with the military. It's been less of an issue and things like couches and coconuts are what's taking off instead.
Well, and it is worth pointing out there is a common denominator here with Carrie in two thousand and four and now it's Chris Losovita. Yes, indeed, and that is worth keeping very much so. On the subject of strategy, the strategy we've seen from the Harris Walls campaign to this point is just hit the road, hit all the swing states you can. A hurricane maybe getting in the way of some of the swing states in the southeast, but she's going to be after Michigan today, head to Arizona, She'll be going to Las Vegas, and she's hitting San Francisco after that. To what extent is the campaign thinking they can continue to just keep this up with organized rallies before putting her in front of the media for a press conference like we're going to see Trump do today, or sitting down for a big interview.
The campaign wants to keep a very aggressive schedule, so I think you're going to continue to see this pace of rallies, you know, either with Harris or Walls or some other combination of surrogates going forward. But they're under a lot of pressure to put her in front of a journalists, you know, whether that's to hold a press conference or do you know, sit down with you know, serious journalists and have these conversations. You know, Biden avoided that for a long time, and he would maybe you know, go and talk to Howard Stern or you know, not as hard news sorts of folks. But this is going to be an issue that she's going to face, and the issues that Biden had are not the same issues she had in terms of you know, she's proved herself that she's able to speak off the cuff, so she needs to sort of put herself in a situation where she.
She does that.
Couches and coconuts should be the name of your podcast, maybe a book, maybe your book on the campaign that's brilliant. I just have to say that out loud. Why sit down with a hard hitting journalist and expose yourself to that when you're going to get more play, probably with a Howard Stern interview. If Donald Trump's sitting down with Elon Musk, what's the equation for Kamala Harris?
It does help negate this attack from jd Vance that she is not talking with journalists and that he's making a real big issue of you know, yesterday he sauntered off his plane. He happened to be at the same airport where Harris was in Air Force too. There was a pool of press gathered outside the plane, and he said, hey, you know, I'm coming to check to make sure you're not lonely because Harris isn't talking to you. You know, this this stunt, you know, didn't maybe land quite the way he wanted it. You know, it came off as very abrasive. But you know, if she wants to sort of be able to deflect some of the negatives, you know, and Democrats, their sort of strategy has been you know, they go low, we go high. She needs to to, you know, at least touch on this issue.
I guess We'll just see when she decides to do so. Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics Editor, thank you so much. As always, and as we talk about the vice president and the vice presidential nominee Jade Vance for that matter, swinging through the swing states, it is worth taking stock of where exactly the race stands in these key battleground states that ultimately will decide the outcome of the election. New poland coming in today from IPSOS that finds that Harris and Trump are in a statistical dead heat in the swing states Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona and of course Nevada. So on that note, we bring in Cliff Young. He is IPSOS head of US Public Affairs, always on top of these polling so this does track Cliff with our own polling we've done with Morning Consolt here at Bloomberg. This idea that they are literally neck and neck in the swing states. But is there a sense that there is more momentum for one candidate than another?
Right now, we have to be careful of false positives that there is this Harris enthusiasm bump. We find it about four points at the national level. We found in the swing states now at about five points. This will dissipate in our minds over time post convention, and so we really once the dust settles, we know where we're going to be. But right now Harris is riding this way.
Well, it's interesting, Cliff, and thanks for coming and back. I really love spending time with you. And you have new numbers to share like this, and yours are important because we're talking swing states, not La La Land national polls. But we've seen in the last twenty four hours the Cook Political Report move three states at least in the direction of Democrats in the form of toss ups. We've seen Sabata's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics move three states as well.
Georgia was one of them. So it speaks to the point you're making here. We're in a very noisy period. How much fluidity do you see in the map?
Yeah, I think we'd be very careful. Right now we have this once again, this enthusiasm bump for Harris. It's significant we see, especially the Democratic base being energized relatively Republican base. But when we look at the fundamentals, when we look at those key factors that help define electoral outcomes, they still are in Trump's favor principally. It's the economy. It's the number one issue. Peel away the onion. It's really about inflation, and Trump dominates on that issue both nationally as well as in the key swing.
States well so on the economy, and you have here in pulling you sent over that fifty two percent said the most important issue facing the country is inflation or increasing costs. We just had a headline cross the Bloomberg terminal in the last hour that mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level since May of twenty twenty three. When we think about increasing costs, Cliff, what costs are the most important and that we should be watching to see if they're coming down and consider the political consequences of that. Is it the cost of home ownership or renting or is this still grocers and gas.
That's a great question. It's obviously it's not about inflation, it's about price level. It's about costs and renting and mortgages are important, but more importantly as gas and basic food stuffs. When you look at the key constituencies that have been affected by inflation, like younger Americans, Black Americans, and Hispanic Americans. It's all about that simple stuff, day to day groceries, day to days sort of household goods and services that really push those segments over the edge. And Harris has a lot of work to do. The Democrats have a lot of work to do. They lost those people over the last let's say a year or so.
Cliff, we were talking before you joined us about the attempt to swift boat Tim Walls and the questioning of his military credentials. Right now, I think the consensus is there isn't one, and we're curious to see if this sticks. One thing that you are seeing stick is this term weird, the label weird sticking to Trump relative to Harris, you say, suggesting the campaign Harris campaign has been successful, successful in initially defining Trump. This is being used, of course, coined, I guess by Tim Walls in this particular case, used against Republicans at large.
What do you make of it?
Yeah, we took a number of terms and we tested them in this swing state pole Right now, it's the battle of biographies. That's what we're seeing at this moment. The Democrats and more specifically Walls have been very effective at painting Trump in negative light. He's weird and that sticks, and basically Trump sort of outpaces on that negative point. Harris by about sixteen points and so very interesting suggests that that strategy is effective. It might be a way to counter Trump's irreverence that's always been a very positive attribute for him. But we will see if ultimately it has that sort of long lasting impact.
Yeah, and I guess we'll see whether or not the questions over Tim Walls's service and his lack of deploying before retiring ultimately has a lasting impact. Let's just take a listen to how the Republican vice presidential nominee, Senator JD. Van has characterized this.
I wondered, Tim Waltz, when were you ever in war? When? What was this weapon that you carried into war?
Given that you abandoned your unit right before they went to Iraq and he has not spent.
A day in a combat zone.
What bothers me about Tim Waltz is the stolen valor garbage.
Do not pretend to be something that you're not.
And if you want to criticize me for getting an Ivy League education, I'm proud of the fact that my Mamma supported me, that I was able to make something of myself. I'd be ashamed if I was him and I lied about my military service like he did.
So.
Of course, the reference to a weapon of war from the Senator, there was an old advertisement from Tim Wallts, who of course is advocated in more recent years for stronger gun control measures, talking about weapons of war that shouldn't be available, like the ones he himself carried into war. And I asked this Cliff with the knowledge that you've also pulled the notion of patriotism, which is something that Donald Trump pulls much better on than Kamala Harris. To what extent is this a narrative that actually matters to the American voter.
It's very indeed. I would go as far as saying that the Waltz pick is more important because of his profile than his policies. He's more sort of aligned with let's say Vance's profile, white, rural veteran and very important and very resonant with that segment of the American population. And what we're seeing right now is a battle of biography, is of Vance is trying to paint him in a negative light, whether that's effective or not, we will see, but I would say it's the correct tack at going after his personal biography before he's able to define.
And ask you about another issue here, Cliff, and that's political violence. It's something that came up in a CBS interview with President Joe Biden, the idea that if Donald Trump loses, it's Katie bar the door.
Here's what he said, if Trump loses, I'm not coming.
He means what he says.
We don't take him seriously.
He means it.
All the stuff about if we lose there'll be a bloodbath is have to be a stone. Look what they're trying to do now in the local election districts where people count the votes or elected, are putting people in place in states that they're going to count the votes. Right, You can't love your country only when you win.
Cliff Young, what are you learning about the level of concern that voters have over this.
Very high levels of concern for violence, widespread belief that the system is broken. So such statements are believable. But the other thing we have to realize is this is one of the primary points of focus of the Democratic campaign to paint Trump and the Republican Party as being insurrectionist, as being anti democratic, that they are a threat to democracy, and this will be hammered over and over and over again by multiple messengers. It's a theme that especially mobilizes the Democrat Baz but also has a pretty good effect on independence. So I expect to see more of this with more intensity over the course of the next ninety days.
Cliff Young at ipsos with fresh numbers straight from the campaign trail and specifically the swing states. Cliff, thank you so much for the numbers, the data, the analysis. It's always great to have you here on Ballance of Power, the Thursday edition here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington.
I suspect Kiley.
A lot of this is going to come up, maybe every issue we just walked through with Cliff, if Donald Trump.
Makes good on a promise for a news conference today.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then.
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The Thursday edition.
You made it to Little Friday, and thanks for joining. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington. As we consider the fluidity of this electoral map, a couple of really important changes from sources that we follow closely here on Ballants of Power. We talked a little bit earlier about Sabado's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics moving Georgia back to toss up, Minnesota and New Hampshire at least better for Democrats. And the Cook Political Report is making moves as well, and this draws us toward the sun Belt. Arizona from Lean's r to toss up. Nevada and Georgia also both from Lean's are to toss up. Kaylee, these are important moves if you believe these are the swing states that will decide this election.
Yeah.
And to quote Amy Walter in this report in which she's making these changes, she says the presidential contest has moved from one that was Trump's to lose to a much more competitive contest. She says with these moves, she now sees two hundred thirty five electoral votes as leaning likely or solid Republican two hundred and twenty six, the same for Democrats seventy seven total electoral votes rated as a toss up. And when we consider the states likely to decide this election, we've spent a lot of time talking about the Blue Wall or the rest belt Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, but she here is looking toward the sun Belt specifically, so that's where we go next. Samara Clark is with us. She's professor at the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy. Tomorrow, Welcome back to Balance and Power. Always great to have you. You're literally on the ground in Arizona. Do you sense the shift that Amy Walter is sensing?
Well, from my understanding, I believe Harrison Walls are in Arizona today.
And yeah, they'll be in Phoenix later.
There exactly, there is a real renewed effort here in Arizona to mobilize voters who are potentially feeling a little bit lackadaisical with Biden. And yes, you absolutely do feel out a new wave of campaigning of energy, and of course with the visit today to Phoenix, that's a pretty big sign.
How much of this has to do with something new, the new shiny object, the honeymoon, the sugar rush, whatever you want to call it. Here, Samara as opposed to where we might be after a debate, after a series of interviews, more headlines from geopolitics or the economy tied to this administration, that's a great question.
I mean, it's hard to know what the future holds. I certainly do not predict the future. But part of it is probably a bit of a honeymoon phase. We have a new campaign, a new candidate, a new VP pick. People are interested, They're learning about these people for the first time. There are people who are learning about Kamala Harris for the first time who didn't know all that much about her.
Even while she was VP. So certainly it could be some novelty.
And I think there is just more energy being infused into the election, and frankly, more effort to buy the campaign, to start mobilizing people in a way that maybe they hadn't been when Biden was running.
Well, certainly we've seen the Democratic ticket mobile this week, to your point, doing this swing state tour that will include Arizona today after they appear at Detroit this afternoon. It raises the question, considering we are expecting this news conference from Donald Trump when the Trump Advance ticket and Republicans as a whole are making a very big deal about Vice President Harris not making herself available for interviews or questions to the press. For voters, does that matter as much as it say matters to the media. Or is it these in person visits and holding these rallies and making the time commitment to go to these states?
You know, I don't know if Frankly, voters who are spending every day buying groceries, dealing with their kids, getting to work, I don't think they're spending a lot of time parsing out the differences between a.
Press conference and a rally.
I do think people ultimately prefer to hear from the candidates themselves.
They'd like to see FaceTime, they like to see speeches.
Press conferences certainly give an air of transparency that I think people appreciate. I wouldn't say voters are putting a lot of weight on how many minutes each candidate is spending at press conferences versus rallies.
But both of these.
Candidates should and are trying to get themselves out there in front of the public as much as possible.
Somorro.
A lot was said about Mark Kelly leading up to the decision on a running mate here. He was said to be on the short list until it was down to two and he suddenly fell off the list. But there was a thought that he could help to cover Kamala Harris on the border on national security. As a veteran, he could plug holes in her resume and maybe just deliver the state of Arizona. He's surprised she did not pick him, and what's the fallout out there?
Sure?
I mean, I think Kelly had a lot of strengths and Arizonans generally approve of Kelly.
He's a great fit for Arizona.
He's sort of a non partisan style that Arizonans really appreciate, which is I think why he won in a very very competitive state. Personally, I thought it was possibly riskier for her to choose a senator at a time when both parties need as many copartisans in the Senate as possible, So for her to vacate a Senate seat as much risky than vacating governorship. I thought that was probably the biggest reason why she would ultimately choose a governor not a senator, but he was absolutely in the running. I think it was brought a lot of attention in Arizona to the campaign generally.
You know, Kelly has been on real.
Strong surrogate for Harris in a way that we haven't really seen him do for Biden, and possibly that was linked to that VP potential.
Well, as we think about the notion of vacating a Senate seat, one is being vacated in Arizona, not the one held by Mark Kelly, the one being held by Senator Senema, who of course decided not to seek re election as an independent. It's now Reuben Diego and Carrie Lake. Does the notion that the presidential race is becoming tighter in Arizona than it maybe was before also have implications for that race down the ballot.
Yeah, for sure.
I mean, all of these races are going to impact each other because when someone shows up the bills out the ballot by mail, however they may choose to do it. If they're voting in one race, it increases the odds that they'll vote for another, is they're voting for a Democrat or for a Republican on one level and increases the chances they'll do so at.
The other level.
No, Gayego has had a pretty comfortable lead, and comfortable in Arizona is not as big as you might think.
It's, you know, a few percentage points, so he has He's had a good campaign so far.
Pulling has consistently shown Diego leading Lake and Trump leading Biden. Now, of course things are changing a little bit, but you know, I'm sure Gego is probably pleased to see this.
Trend towards toss up.
As you just indicated, He's had a fairly comfortable lead in the polls, and I'm sure he's hoping that that will just increase.
Now we'll I have to notice what Carrie Lake's been posting on Twitter. She just two hours ago wrote Tim Wallas as a far left nut who left the city burned, punished law enforcement. Thirteen hours ago, very simple, stolen nomination and stolen valor. It says, this is the ticket the DNC is offering we the people. How important is this conversation in a state like Arizona, filled with so many veterans and active members of the military, to see Tim Walls have his military credentials questions.
Well, you know, Arizona has a huge military presence.
At Tucson, where I'm sitting here today, has a very large important Air Force base.
So the VET community in Arizona is really important. And I think that Walls.
Is probably both going to appeal to voters just by the fact that he has a long military service, but also, as you say, these questions now regarding his military service may become a bit of an issue. Now, of course, Democrats and Republicans are probably not going to choose their candidate based on stories about credibility of Walls's military history. We do, however, in Arizona have a very large proportion of voters who identify as independent, and those independent voters might be looking at these details a little more carefully. They might be the ones who are following these stories in the next few weeks as we see the pull start to shift.
Well, there's also just this idea of tone and feeling in this race and the way that these conversations are being approached by either ticket. We heard from the now vice presidential nominee on the Democratic side, Governor Walls, when he was being announced by Kamala Harris at that rally in Philadelphia, seemed pretty happy and specifically thanked her for this.
Thank you, madam Vice President, for the trust you put in me, but maybe more so, thank you for bringing back the joy.
The joy is the word the governor used, Samara. And as we consider the notion that there's been reporting part of the reason that Vice President Harris was attracted to Governor Walls was because of his so called happy, go lucky attitude. What plays better for voters kind of anger and aggressiveness or this more joyful, jovial kind of tone we're getting.
Well, I'll say that a lot of the anger and aggressiveness in politics has pushed people away from wanting to identify with either party at all, but that largely is coming from the conflict.
Between the two parties.
So I think Parris and Walls are going to have to do is not only talk about joy, but also try to tone down the attacks and the anger that candidates tend to see between candidates, and I think that the vote that sort of voters see between candidates, and I think that that's what they're they're trying to do. I think they're trying to distinguish themselves from the Trump vance ticket as much as possible. They're potentially trying to highlight Harris's youth relative to Donald Trump. So you know, these are all the strategies that they're going to go for, and we'll see if it works. We've only had it feels like a long long time now, but it's only been about a week that we've really had some certainty about this ticket, and we'll have to see how it plays out.
Well.
You know, somorrow, Donald Trump's going to be holding a news conference as he's built it, starting about ten minutes from right now. Never really know exactly what he's going to do, but I can almost guarantee you that he will start with the border. I only say that because he has done that at just about every event he's held in recent memory here. If he doesn't start with it, he'll get to it pretty quickly. And I wonder if he has an audience only in Republicans in Arizona or if Democrats or is concerned as well.
Oh, absolutely they are.
I mean, the border is one of the biggest issues at Arizona's rate. Is important here in Arizona now for some Arizonans that has to do with undocumented immigrants.
For a lot of Arizonans.
It has to do with illegal you know, contrabands, drugs, weapons that are brought across the border. But no matter how you cut it, Americans and Arizonans are concerned about the border and that is something that both parties are going to have to tackle head on. Biden did not have great approval ratings on the border. People were not happy with improvements or lack thereof at the border over the last four years. So you know, Donald Trump is wise to bring it up. I think it's an issue that people have typically thought Republicans might be better at, but that advantage might be waning a little bit. Harra seems to be a lot more aggressive and talking about the border, and she's trying to kind of take back that issue, especially in swing states like Arizona.
And where the border is highly ranked in terms of issues we know voters care about potentially even more so in border states. We know that the economy is up there too. We were asking Cliff Young of IPSOS about this earlier on, knowing that we saw today mortgage rates dropping to the lowest levels since May of last year. To what extent do changes like that actually help the incumbent party, or is it not material enough to make a difference when costs are still quite elevated.
Well, I'll first say, you know, in a swing state like Arizona, where electoral outcomes are so razor thin, it's going to be hard for me to say that there's anything that might not make a difference. Really, anything could make a difference in Arizona. We have such tiny, tiny margins of victory in our races, but the economy is huge, huge, hugely important here. Arizona had one of the highest rates of inflation in the country. Cost of living in Arizona has really skyrocketed. It may seem like Arizona has a low cost of living compared to you know, DC, or La or San Francisco, but compared to how it was here five years ago, ten years ago, Arizona's are pretty stunned by the increase of the cost of living.
So any economic.
Factor is going to be a big factor in an Arizona election. And seeing those mortgage rates fall, I think will have an impact and can make people more positive or more optimistic about their financial state and about the economy.
Samara Klar, it's great to have you back as always. Thanks for the insights professor at the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy, Samara Klarr here on Balance of Power. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.
