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Learn this.

Learn this.

The economy that matters most is not national. This is the most important story you're going to read on the terminal or online if you care about this race and the seven swing states we have been talking about for months that are going to decide this election. The economy is not a monolith. Sean Donnan and his colleagues are out with an incredible piece of journalism today and the big take. This is world class stuff. This is journalism you don't do overnight.

The economy that matters most is not national. This is the most important story you're going to read on the terminal or online if you care about this race and the seven swing states we have been talking about for months that are going to decide this election. The economy is not a monolith. Sean Donnan and his colleagues are out with an incredible piece of journalism today and the big take. This is world class stuff. This is journalism you don't do overnight.

Here.

Here.

It's a remarkable piece that combines anecdotal evidence in the swing states with hard data that you would expect from Bloomberg. These seven states home to sixty one million people a combined gross domestic product in twenty twenty three of four point four trillion dollars, showing economic cracks that could prove a political obstacle for Vice President Kamala Harris. As I read in the story, Shawn's with us at the table right now, it's great to see you.

It's a remarkable piece that combines anecdotal evidence in the swing states with hard data that you would expect from Bloomberg. These seven states home to sixty one million people a combined gross domestic product in twenty twenty three of four point four trillion dollars, showing economic cracks that could prove a political obstacle for Vice President Kamala Harris. As I read in the story, Shawn's with us at the table right now, it's great to see you.

Congrats on a great story here. In fact, it's about one hundred.

Congrats on a great story here. In fact, it's about one hundred.

Stories and one well, at least seven if you want to see a real great marriage, as I said, of data and anecdotal journalism, this is it. Let's start in the blue Wall states. What do our listeners need to know about the difference in these economies Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and where some of us may live.

Stories and one well, at least seven if you want to see a real great marriage, as I said, of data and anecdotal journalism, this is it. Let's start in the blue Wall states. What do our listeners need to know about the difference in these economies Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and where some of us may live.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Look, there's a fundamental thing that we found here, and that is that those blue Wall states, which are the kind of the core of the campaign right now, that's where the Democrats are focused and where the Republicans are hoping to exploit some weaknesses. And the reality is they've grown since twenty nineteen at a third of the rate of the rest of the United States when you adjust for inflation and population changes and so on. And that means that you know, when Joe Biden was the candidate, and when he was out there talking about the great and this remarkable national recovery that we've seen in the economy from the pandemic recession, he was talking about a national recovery. But in the Blue Wall, that story looks very different. And in particularly we went to a place called Erie County. That place has been one of the slowest places to recover from the pandemic recession. By the end of twenty twenty two, which is the last data we have available, it was actually three point two two percent smaller that economy once you adjust for inflation, than it was before the pandemic.

Look, there's a fundamental thing that we found here, and that is that those blue Wall states, which are the kind of the core of the campaign right now, that's where the Democrats are focused and where the Republicans are hoping to exploit some weaknesses. And the reality is they've grown since twenty nineteen at a third of the rate of the rest of the United States when you adjust for inflation and population changes and so on. And that means that you know, when Joe Biden was the candidate, and when he was out there talking about the great and this remarkable national recovery that we've seen in the economy from the pandemic recession, he was talking about a national recovery. But in the Blue Wall, that story looks very different. And in particularly we went to a place called Erie County. That place has been one of the slowest places to recover from the pandemic recession. By the end of twenty twenty two, which is the last data we have available, it was actually three point two two percent smaller that economy once you adjust for inflation, than it was before the pandemic.

Well, you guys spent time and you mentioned Erie County. You went there and talked to real people, which is why partly this story is wonderful. One of them was Curtis Jones Junior, former Erie Democratic City councilman. Here's what he had to say.

Well, you guys spent time and you mentioned Erie County. You went there and talked to real people, which is why partly this story is wonderful. One of them was Curtis Jones Junior, former Erie Democratic City councilman. Here's what he had to say.

We see projects, we see economic development happening, but don't always say, oh, that's because of the Biden administration or it's because of the governor. Like most people weren't thinking that way. The average person is struggling. It's an interesting dichog, almost like the tail of two cities. Right. So you've got funding for business development economic development projects in our downtown, but we're also seeing regrettably an increased number of un housed and under housed in our community. Individual households are struggling significantly because of the cost increases.

We see projects, we see economic development happening, but don't always say, oh, that's because of the Biden administration or it's because of the governor. Like most people weren't thinking that way. The average person is struggling. It's an interesting dichog, almost like the tail of two cities. Right. So you've got funding for business development economic development projects in our downtown, but we're also seeing regrettably an increased number of un housed and under housed in our community. Individual households are struggling significantly because of the cost increases.

Really interesting take here, and there are two numbers that are off the important about erie that you point out. One GDP per capita three point two percent smaller by the end of twenty two than it was in twenty nineteen. The other one is Joe Biden won the county by only fourteen hundred votes in twenty twenty. Yeah, you've put those together. You've got a challenge.

Really interesting take here, and there are two numbers that are off the important about erie that you point out. One GDP per capita three point two percent smaller by the end of twenty two than it was in twenty nineteen. The other one is Joe Biden won the county by only fourteen hundred votes in twenty twenty. Yeah, you've put those together. You've got a challenge.

You've got a challenge. You've also got a continuing challenge in that the manufacturing sector there hasn't seen the recovery that you've seen or the increase in jobs that you've seen some of the Sun Belt states like Georgia and Arizona and so on. It's a place that's continuing to lose population as well. So you know, the unemployment rate looks at a historic low, but there's ten percent fewer people working in factories than there were just ten years ago.

You've got a challenge. You've also got a continuing challenge in that the manufacturing sector there hasn't seen the recovery that you've seen or the increase in jobs that you've seen some of the Sun Belt states like Georgia and Arizona and so on. It's a place that's continuing to lose population as well. So you know, the unemployment rate looks at a historic low, but there's ten percent fewer people working in factories than there were just ten years ago.

That's incredible.

That's incredible.

So talk to us more about the sun Belt states because we've been hearing that there could be a new path here for this heris ticket.

So talk to us more about the sun Belt states because we've been hearing that there could be a new path here for this heris ticket.

It's different than Biden. And yes it's Georgia.

It's different than Biden. And yes it's Georgia.

It's also Arizona where you find that the housing squeeze is still severe.

It's also Arizona where you find that the housing squeeze is still severe.

Yeah.

Yeah.

No, Look, if you look at Arizona, which has been the real outperformer in terms of the Swing states in terms of growth, So in terms of real GDP per capita growth, they grew about twelve percent between twenty nineteen and the end of twenty three. That's good, right, and a lot of that is a result of investment in new chips plants. There a big increase in the population there. But again, when you start looking on the ground, you start finding housing costs have gone up remarkably. They've doubled since twenty nineteen. For a median household in a place like Arizona or Nevada, they were paying eighteen to twenty percent of their income on their mortgage on a median house in twenty nineteen, that's now up around thirty six thirty seven percent in those states. That's a meaningful difference for most families in terms of just getting some shelter over them.

No, Look, if you look at Arizona, which has been the real outperformer in terms of the Swing states in terms of growth, So in terms of real GDP per capita growth, they grew about twelve percent between twenty nineteen and the end of twenty three. That's good, right, and a lot of that is a result of investment in new chips plants. There a big increase in the population there. But again, when you start looking on the ground, you start finding housing costs have gone up remarkably. They've doubled since twenty nineteen. For a median household in a place like Arizona or Nevada, they were paying eighteen to twenty percent of their income on their mortgage on a median house in twenty nineteen, that's now up around thirty six thirty seven percent in those states. That's a meaningful difference for most families in terms of just getting some shelter over them.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Absolutely.

Absolutely.

We like to say on Bloomberg that context matters, and this is a pretty great example of a Congrats on a great piece, John, Thanks for talking with us here on Balance of Power.

We like to say on Bloomberg that context matters, and this is a pretty great example of a Congrats on a great piece, John, Thanks for talking with us here on Balance of Power.

Thanks so much for having me.

Thanks so much for having me.

I find it of course on the podcast as well on the terminal and online. A great story here on the Big Take that I encourage you to check out to have a better not just to sound smart at the cocktail party, that'll be the case too, but to have a better understanding of these debates that we have every day on this program.

I find it of course on the podcast as well on the terminal and online. A great story here on the Big Take that I encourage you to check out to have a better not just to sound smart at the cocktail party, that'll be the case too, but to have a better understanding of these debates that we have every day on this program.

Each of these states brings a.

Each of these states brings a.

Different component and a different challenge to both campaigns, as it's born out in the data, as well as the real human beings we talk to. Speaking of real human beings, we have two of them on our great panel today. It's time to assemble. Genie Shanzo, Bloomberg Politics contributor of course, Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress, and political science professor at Iona University. Moragi Lespie's here too, Republican strategist and founder of Bluestack Strategies. Wonderful panel and great to see you both. Welcome today, Genie. I'd like to ask you about some of what we just learned. This is fascinating to me as you make your way through the Blue Wall through the sun Belts. Each state has a different economic story to tell, and Kamala Harris is going to find out firsthand as she travels to these states this week that their economies are not in many cases keeping up with the rest of the country. If the swing states are going to decide this election, Genie, how does Kamala Harris win with that in mind?

Different component and a different challenge to both campaigns, as it's born out in the data, as well as the real human beings we talk to. Speaking of real human beings, we have two of them on our great panel today. It's time to assemble. Genie Shanzo, Bloomberg Politics contributor of course, Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress, and political science professor at Iona University. Moragi Lespie's here too, Republican strategist and founder of Bluestack Strategies. Wonderful panel and great to see you both. Welcome today, Genie. I'd like to ask you about some of what we just learned. This is fascinating to me as you make your way through the Blue Wall through the sun Belts. Each state has a different economic story to tell, and Kamala Harris is going to find out firsthand as she travels to these states this week that their economies are not in many cases keeping up with the rest of the country. If the swing states are going to decide this election, Genie, how does Kamala Harris win with that in mind?

Well?

Well?

Can I first say, I need to have Sean come talk to my students about great data driven journalism, because this, to your point, is a great piece. And I think what Kamala Harris does have this challenge on the economy. Regardless about how well received she has been, people still give the Republicans and Donald Trump much higher numbers on the economy. This has been the story of this election, pre Kamala Harris's ascension and post and I think the irony of this race is that regardless of how sour people are on the economy, Donald Trump hasn't yet been able to use that, and it's only been a few weeks against Kamala Harris. And we saw this on display yesterday, right when he starts to talk about economic issues, he seems to get distracted by things like round sizes and his hate for Brian Kemp. And you know, part of the irony is that you can think of almost any traditional Republican candidate being able to make this case on the economy against Kamala Harris. But because Donald Trump is so distracted by the things he really cares about, like crowd size or you know, the fact that you know he can't figure out, you know, things about the election being stolen in comparisons between Alabama and Mississippi and twenty twenty, that he doesn't talk about the economy and the way he should. And so that's where Kamala Harris gets this advantage.

Can I first say, I need to have Sean come talk to my students about great data driven journalism, because this, to your point, is a great piece. And I think what Kamala Harris does have this challenge on the economy. Regardless about how well received she has been, people still give the Republicans and Donald Trump much higher numbers on the economy. This has been the story of this election, pre Kamala Harris's ascension and post and I think the irony of this race is that regardless of how sour people are on the economy, Donald Trump hasn't yet been able to use that, and it's only been a few weeks against Kamala Harris. And we saw this on display yesterday, right when he starts to talk about economic issues, he seems to get distracted by things like round sizes and his hate for Brian Kemp. And you know, part of the irony is that you can think of almost any traditional Republican candidate being able to make this case on the economy against Kamala Harris. But because Donald Trump is so distracted by the things he really cares about, like crowd size or you know, the fact that you know he can't figure out, you know, things about the election being stolen in comparisons between Alabama and Mississippi and twenty twenty, that he doesn't talk about the economy and the way he should. And so that's where Kamala Harris gets this advantage.

Maura, Does Jenny have a point there? Staying on the economy is productive when you look at the map here for Donald Trump, because otherwise we're talking about advantage Trump in all of these states, aren't we Absolutely?

Maura, Does Jenny have a point there? Staying on the economy is productive when you look at the map here for Donald Trump, because otherwise we're talking about advantage Trump in all of these states, aren't we Absolutely?

And I think Jennie makes you a point that he does get so distracted. So sometimes I kind of tally watching yesterday, I thought, does he actually want to win? Because if he talked about the economy, talked about safety and security, those are two policy issues that are going to be very important come November. And yet he gets himself all spun up about the media not reporting his accurate crowd sizes, comparing himself to having the same crowd size as Martin Luther Pan Junior, and as I have a dream speech. I mean, these are things that I believe in about five ten years we're going to look back. I cannot believe that this is what was said by the not only for president, but somebody who is leading the pack here to become the next president. So if Republicans watching this who are running down ballot could just focus on the economy, their policy issue that would be strong for reelection or for election, then they will do well come November. I don't know, like I said the same about Donald Trump, but I do think that Republicans should be really focused on those two main issues and campaigning on those to make an come November.

And I think Jennie makes you a point that he does get so distracted. So sometimes I kind of tally watching yesterday, I thought, does he actually want to win? Because if he talked about the economy, talked about safety and security, those are two policy issues that are going to be very important come November. And yet he gets himself all spun up about the media not reporting his accurate crowd sizes, comparing himself to having the same crowd size as Martin Luther Pan Junior, and as I have a dream speech. I mean, these are things that I believe in about five ten years we're going to look back. I cannot believe that this is what was said by the not only for president, but somebody who is leading the pack here to become the next president. So if Republicans watching this who are running down ballot could just focus on the economy, their policy issue that would be strong for reelection or for election, then they will do well come November. I don't know, like I said the same about Donald Trump, but I do think that Republicans should be really focused on those two main issues and campaigning on those to make an come November.

You know, Genie, I'm struck by the presence of COVID in the data here, the seven swing states have a disproportionate share of their population living in counties that had not yet recovered to their pre pandemic levels. We're talking GDP yere by the end of twenty twenty two. And when you isolate those counties that did not recover to their pre pandemic level, a vast majority of them were carried by Donald Trump in the twenty twenty election. That could happen again here, correct.

You know, Genie, I'm struck by the presence of COVID in the data here, the seven swing states have a disproportionate share of their population living in counties that had not yet recovered to their pre pandemic levels. We're talking GDP yere by the end of twenty twenty two. And when you isolate those counties that did not recover to their pre pandemic level, a vast majority of them were carried by Donald Trump in the twenty twenty election. That could happen again here, correct.

It absolutely could. I mean, the numbers are on his side when you look at the public opinion poll numbers. I mean, and people really do think that if they are asked who they trust more with their economy, it is going to be Donald Trump and the GOP. And I think what Kamala Harris needs to try to do is to talk specifically about what Donald Trump has said his plans are. Most economists say his plans as he has laid them out are inflation are. So if we do get a FED cut in interest rates come September, that'll be a point for Harris and Biden to celebrate that. Many Americans will likely see that as a sign that inflation is going down and in the right direction. We're moving in the right direction, and so you know, this would be something that they could use and juxtapose what his plans are versus her plans. But again, it's not something she's going to have to address until and unless he starts to talk about the economy specifically. And I would just add his job has become harder since she is ascended, because of course, now even though she's from the incumbent administration, she can talk about what she plans to do as president. She doesn't have as much defending to do as a Joe Biden would have.

It absolutely could. I mean, the numbers are on his side when you look at the public opinion poll numbers. I mean, and people really do think that if they are asked who they trust more with their economy, it is going to be Donald Trump and the GOP. And I think what Kamala Harris needs to try to do is to talk specifically about what Donald Trump has said his plans are. Most economists say his plans as he has laid them out are inflation are. So if we do get a FED cut in interest rates come September, that'll be a point for Harris and Biden to celebrate that. Many Americans will likely see that as a sign that inflation is going down and in the right direction. We're moving in the right direction, and so you know, this would be something that they could use and juxtapose what his plans are versus her plans. But again, it's not something she's going to have to address until and unless he starts to talk about the economy specifically. And I would just add his job has become harder since she is ascended, because of course, now even though she's from the incumbent administration, she can talk about what she plans to do as president. She doesn't have as much defending to do as a Joe Biden would have.

Is it just about talking about the economy, Mara. Donald Trump can criticize Joe Biden clearly when it comes to these data all day long. Or does he need a plan on how to low prices? What's his inflation plan? So far, all we've heard is drill, Baby, drill.

Is it just about talking about the economy, Mara. Donald Trump can criticize Joe Biden clearly when it comes to these data all day long. Or does he need a plan on how to low prices? What's his inflation plan? So far, all we've heard is drill, Baby, drill.

For are the MAGA supporters. He can just continue to hit on the Harris Biden Biden Harris administration and the ways that he believes they destroyed our economy. He can hit on that all day long, and MAGA will come out for him and will rally behind that messaging. But I think for those voters who are not, so can Don Trump, but really don't see any path that they're going to over Kamala Harris. He needs to try and reach them and convince them to vote for him as opposed to a third party or a write in opportunity. There So he needs to talk about what it is that he plans on actually doing. Again, I watching some of these rallies in Georgia, watching yesterday's speech or press conference, it makes you feel as though he doesn't actually want to be president. He just wants to span fare around him, having the attention and having people you know fairly or kindly talk about him in the media. And unfortunately for the American people, that's going to be a problem. We against an administration which is not reflective of what he had in twenty twenty sixteen. Most of those people he had with him are gone. So what is it that he plans to do should he become president and who is he bringing in with him? I mean, I think these are questions that voters really need to get a handle on before they get to the polls in November.

For are the MAGA supporters. He can just continue to hit on the Harris Biden Biden Harris administration and the ways that he believes they destroyed our economy. He can hit on that all day long, and MAGA will come out for him and will rally behind that messaging. But I think for those voters who are not, so can Don Trump, but really don't see any path that they're going to over Kamala Harris. He needs to try and reach them and convince them to vote for him as opposed to a third party or a write in opportunity. There So he needs to talk about what it is that he plans on actually doing. Again, I watching some of these rallies in Georgia, watching yesterday's speech or press conference, it makes you feel as though he doesn't actually want to be president. He just wants to span fare around him, having the attention and having people you know fairly or kindly talk about him in the media. And unfortunately for the American people, that's going to be a problem. We against an administration which is not reflective of what he had in twenty twenty sixteen. Most of those people he had with him are gone. So what is it that he plans to do should he become president and who is he bringing in with him? I mean, I think these are questions that voters really need to get a handle on before they get to the polls in November.

Well, I find it really interesting to put a cap on this conversation about the swing states and their economies Kamala Harris and Tim Wallas today are in Arizona and Nevada. Donald Trump is in Bozeman, Montana, And I'll just leave that there for right now.

Well, I find it really interesting to put a cap on this conversation about the swing states and their economies Kamala Harris and Tim Wallas today are in Arizona and Nevada. Donald Trump is in Bozeman, Montana, And I'll just leave that there for right now.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Welcome to the fastest show in politics, the Friday edition of Balance of Power Live from Washington. You made it to the threshold of the weekend as the campaigns continued travel. We've got a couple of big ones today, importantly the Kamala Harris Tim Walls campaign, sticking to the swing states we've been talking about so much, Arizona and Nevada today, where Donald Trump interestingly is in Bozeman, Montana for his one rally of the week here raising questions about the travel schedule, not to mention the deployment of resources in other areas. That's where we start with Gregory Cordy, Bloomberg Politics Reporter.

Welcome to the fastest show in politics, the Friday edition of Balance of Power Live from Washington. You made it to the threshold of the weekend as the campaigns continued travel. We've got a couple of big ones today, importantly the Kamala Harris Tim Walls campaign, sticking to the swing states we've been talking about so much, Arizona and Nevada today, where Donald Trump interestingly is in Bozeman, Montana for his one rally of the week here raising questions about the travel schedule, not to mention the deployment of resources in other areas. That's where we start with Gregory Cordy, Bloomberg Politics Reporter.

It's great to see Gregory.

It's great to see Gregory.

These are obviously valuable days for both campaigns. And as we watch the Democratic ticket do six swing states this week, how is the Trump campaign managing itself in Montana?

These are obviously valuable days for both campaigns. And as we watch the Democratic ticket do six swing states this week, how is the Trump campaign managing itself in Montana?

Yeah, it seems almost like an October fever that we have and it's only August.

Yeah, it seems almost like an October fever that we have and it's only August.

You know.

You know.

Look, this was a question that form President Trump was asked at his news conference yesterday in mar Lago. He got testy at the question. The question was, you know, why aren't you in this swing states? He says, Look, I'm here, I'm talking to you, I'm campaigning from mar Logo, I'm on the phone all the time. But you know, the two most valuable things that any campaign has is one is the hard money, the dollars the campaign contributions to put up TV ads, And the other is the candidate's time and where the candidate spends his or her time. Says a lot about which how they see the map, which voters they're trying to motivate. And at this point, Kamala Harris and Tim Walls are working the swing states and Donald Trump is working mar Lago, and as you point out, Montana, which is very important in the Senate context. Right, But I think both parties would agree they'd much rather have the White House.

Look, this was a question that form President Trump was asked at his news conference yesterday in mar Lago. He got testy at the question. The question was, you know, why aren't you in this swing states? He says, Look, I'm here, I'm talking to you, I'm campaigning from mar Logo, I'm on the phone all the time. But you know, the two most valuable things that any campaign has is one is the hard money, the dollars the campaign contributions to put up TV ads, And the other is the candidate's time and where the candidate spends his or her time. Says a lot about which how they see the map, which voters they're trying to motivate. And at this point, Kamala Harris and Tim Walls are working the swing states and Donald Trump is working mar Lago, and as you point out, Montana, which is very important in the Senate context. Right, But I think both parties would agree they'd much rather have the White House.

So let's talk about this news conference. By the way, it was a news conference. There were actual reporters questions, which is not always.

So let's talk about this news conference. By the way, it was a news conference. There were actual reporters questions, which is not always.

Including one from our own Nancy Cook, who was there. That's right.

Including one from our own Nancy Cook, who was there. That's right.

Yeah, the couple of planted questions too, I understand from some of the folks who were there, asking about various things. But we played the greatest hits here. I don't think Hannibal lecture made an appearance, but all the other stuff did here, including crowd sizes. We're doing crowd so he's talking about mlk's crowd size for the iyead of a dream speech. Isn't that the definition of a distraction ed?

Yeah, the couple of planted questions too, I understand from some of the folks who were there, asking about various things. But we played the greatest hits here. I don't think Hannibal lecture made an appearance, but all the other stuff did here, including crowd sizes. We're doing crowd so he's talking about mlk's crowd size for the iyead of a dream speech. Isn't that the definition of a distraction ed?

You remember a couple of weeks ago we were in Milwaukee at the Republican Convention. We were talking about how after the assassination attempt, the attempt on Trump's life, he was going to be a sort of a new candidate. He was going to have a sort of rhetoric. He was going to downplay all of the those sort of greatest hits that you're talking about. And of course, you know, we're right back to the same Trump. He can't help himself. It doesn't matter whether it's a rally or a convention nomination acceptance speech or a press conference. He's going to go back to some of those same themes as as he always does, you know, and his divergences. We didn't get, as you said, Hannimal elector. We did get a little bit of an aside on the acoustics of mar A Lago.

You remember a couple of weeks ago we were in Milwaukee at the Republican Convention. We were talking about how after the assassination attempt, the attempt on Trump's life, he was going to be a sort of a new candidate. He was going to have a sort of rhetoric. He was going to downplay all of the those sort of greatest hits that you're talking about. And of course, you know, we're right back to the same Trump. He can't help himself. It doesn't matter whether it's a rally or a convention nomination acceptance speech or a press conference. He's going to go back to some of those same themes as as he always does, you know, and his divergences. We didn't get, as you said, Hannimal elector. We did get a little bit of an aside on the acoustics of mar A Lago.

How much it was worth eighteen million?

How much it was worth eighteen million?

Eighteen million is according to that room, I think, Yeah, so it's this is the Trump we have come to know as Americans.

Eighteen million is according to that room, I think, Yeah, so it's this is the Trump we have come to know as Americans.

The Trump you're gonna get apparently attempted assassination or not. But we're playing with some pretty hot stuff here. It's not just crowd sizes, it's racial tropes, it's stolen valor.

The Trump you're gonna get apparently attempted assassination or not. But we're playing with some pretty hot stuff here. It's not just crowd sizes, it's racial tropes, it's stolen valor.

Is this the campaign? Again? This goes back to I think the comment I made earlier, like this feels like October. These are October level attack.

Is this the campaign? Again? This goes back to I think the comment I made earlier, like this feels like October. These are October level attack.

October's in five minutes, by the way, and we are in the sprint.

October's in five minutes, by the way, and we are in the sprint.

Now.

Now.

This is the fast forward time. Absolutely. Although you know, there used to be a day I'm old enough to remember when before Labor Day, both parties kind of thought, well, people aren't really paying attention. Yeah right, you know, we'll do some organizational work. I keep hearing that, actually, but no, it is with the dog days. We haven't even had the Democratic Convention yet, and these kind of fever pitch attacks which have become more common in American politics over the past decade or so. Certainly Trump has contributed to it, but you know, to be fair, Democrats also have engaged in some somewhat crude insinuations about JD. Vance, which I'm not going to repeat here, but I think people can probably use their imagination it's a furniture related I know, yeah, something I have attack. I heard that. You know, this is the state of our politics now.

This is the fast forward time. Absolutely. Although you know, there used to be a day I'm old enough to remember when before Labor Day, both parties kind of thought, well, people aren't really paying attention. Yeah right, you know, we'll do some organizational work. I keep hearing that, actually, but no, it is with the dog days. We haven't even had the Democratic Convention yet, and these kind of fever pitch attacks which have become more common in American politics over the past decade or so. Certainly Trump has contributed to it, but you know, to be fair, Democrats also have engaged in some somewhat crude insinuations about JD. Vance, which I'm not going to repeat here, but I think people can probably use their imagination it's a furniture related I know, yeah, something I have attack. I heard that. You know, this is the state of our politics now.

Yeah, well, so let's talk about the Democrats more for a minute, because Klina Harris getting a lot of criticism, and you could even argue the main reason why Donald Trump did that yesterday is because people want her to have a news conference stand there for forty five minutes, or an our take question sit down, have a hard hitting interview with a journalist. I don't know if they're at the point yet where they have to do this. As you said, we're going into the convention. There are a lot of things happening. They're introducing a running mate, but there is something real to that.

Yeah, well, so let's talk about the Democrats more for a minute, because Klina Harris getting a lot of criticism, and you could even argue the main reason why Donald Trump did that yesterday is because people want her to have a news conference stand there for forty five minutes, or an our take question sit down, have a hard hitting interview with a journalist. I don't know if they're at the point yet where they have to do this. As you said, we're going into the convention. There are a lot of things happening. They're introducing a running mate, but there is something real to that.

Well, yes, and as you know, because you have been in this business a long time too, that the longer she goes without doing it, the more the bubble inflates.

Well, yes, and as you know, because you have been in this business a long time too, that the longer she goes without doing it, the more the bubble inflates.

The harder that interview will be stations.

The harder that interview will be stations.

Fall on that in or that press conference or whatever venue would take. She did take some questions, a few of them on the tarmac yesterday, I think it was. But yeah, look, this is she has won the Democratic nomination for president without a single delegate voting or a single primary caucus voter voting for one of her delegates. Those delegates have now switched over to her. But she has not had to make the case in the same grueling primary process that we usually put our presidential candidates through of why she's the best candidate for president of the United States. She is not on the record on a number of different questions of how her views of the world may differ from the person who she has served under as president and Joe Biden, And so yeah, those questions are going to mount until she starts to go out and answer some of them. I still say they take the edge off by doing it. Sit down with the two of them, right.

Fall on that in or that press conference or whatever venue would take. She did take some questions, a few of them on the tarmac yesterday, I think it was. But yeah, look, this is she has won the Democratic nomination for president without a single delegate voting or a single primary caucus voter voting for one of her delegates. Those delegates have now switched over to her. But she has not had to make the case in the same grueling primary process that we usually put our presidential candidates through of why she's the best candidate for president of the United States. She is not on the record on a number of different questions of how her views of the world may differ from the person who she has served under as president and Joe Biden, And so yeah, those questions are going to mount until she starts to go out and answer some of them. I still say they take the edge off by doing it. Sit down with the two of them, right.

Kamala Harris, Tim Wall, sit down with the friendly whatever, do entertainment, whatever you gotta do, and then and then follow it up.

Kamala Harris, Tim Wall, sit down with the friendly whatever, do entertainment, whatever you gotta do, and then and then follow it up.

With the hard hitting interview. You start with the I am getting campaign advice on it. Do a little bit of lifestyle.

With the hard hitting interview. You start with the I am getting campaign advice on it. Do a little bit of lifestyle.

Dare I say couch? You said, do the couch interview on the morning show. Right, that's what's coming, Okay, campaign advice from Gregor.

Dare I say couch? You said, do the couch interview on the morning show. Right, that's what's coming, Okay, campaign advice from Gregor.

Recording, not me.

Recording, not me.

It's great to see you, Bloomberg politics reporter. Not your job, indeed, but he covers politics the best of them, and it's great to have you at the table always, Greigory, I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. As we recall the news conference at mar A Lago, you saw and heard it live in its entirety. Well, we were just talking about this a short time ago. Here's a taste of Donald Trump holding forth with reporters at mari A Lago.

It's great to see you, Bloomberg politics reporter. Not your job, indeed, but he covers politics the best of them, and it's great to have you at the table always, Greigory, I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. As we recall the news conference at mar A Lago, you saw and heard it live in its entirety. Well, we were just talking about this a short time ago. Here's a taste of Donald Trump holding forth with reporters at mari A Lago.

If you look at January sixth, which a lot of people aren't talking about very much, I think those people were treated very harshly when you compare them to other things that took place in this country where a lot of people were killed. Nobody was killed on January six Of course, there'll be a peaceful transfer, and there was last time, and there'll be a peaceful transfer. I just hope we're going to have honest elections. So I think the abortion issue has written very much tempered down. Nobody's spoke into crowds bigger than me. If you look at Martin Luther King when he did his speech, his great speech, and you look at ours, same real estate, same everything, same number of people.

If you look at January sixth, which a lot of people aren't talking about very much, I think those people were treated very harshly when you compare them to other things that took place in this country where a lot of people were killed. Nobody was killed on January six Of course, there'll be a peaceful transfer, and there was last time, and there'll be a peaceful transfer. I just hope we're going to have honest elections. So I think the abortion issue has written very much tempered down. Nobody's spoke into crowds bigger than me. If you look at Martin Luther King when he did his speech, his great speech, and you look at ours, same real estate, same everything, same number of people.

If not, we had more.

If not, we had more.

To think that was out of an hour, we could keep playing things for quite a while. The Associated Press, by the way, did a little bit of homework on that. For the record, Martin Luther King Junior's crowd that day was twenty five times larger than Donald Trump's was on the sixth of January, not to mention some of the other things that happened that day. As he refers to a peaceful transition of power. This is where we start our conversation with the gentleman from Maryland. Congressman Glenn Ivy is with US Democrat representing Maryland's fourth District, which I drive through every day on my way to work. Congressman, it's great to see you, Thanks for coming in, thanks for having me. It's a pleasure to have you in person here. I'm not going to drag you through this campaign stuff for our entire conversation, because there are a couple of issues I'd really like to hit with you.

To think that was out of an hour, we could keep playing things for quite a while. The Associated Press, by the way, did a little bit of homework on that. For the record, Martin Luther King Junior's crowd that day was twenty five times larger than Donald Trump's was on the sixth of January, not to mention some of the other things that happened that day. As he refers to a peaceful transition of power. This is where we start our conversation with the gentleman from Maryland. Congressman Glenn Ivy is with US Democrat representing Maryland's fourth District, which I drive through every day on my way to work. Congressman, it's great to see you, Thanks for coming in, thanks for having me. It's a pleasure to have you in person here. I'm not going to drag you through this campaign stuff for our entire conversation, because there are a couple of issues I'd really like to hit with you.

Start there.

Start there.

The rhetoric that we're hearing in this campaign is one that's concerning.

The rhetoric that we're hearing in this campaign is one that's concerning.

A lot of folks.

A lot of folks.

Is we're now regressing in serracial tropes, stolen valor the rest that you're hearing along with us. How does the Harris Walls campaign respond to that?

Is we're now regressing in serracial tropes, stolen valor the rest that you're hearing along with us. How does the Harris Walls campaign respond to that?

Well, so far, I think they've been able to almost ignore it because many of those comments contain critiques within themselves. I mean, I think it depends up to see how things play out and if he keeps doing press conferences like the one yesterday where it's just one bizarre statement after another.

Well, so far, I think they've been able to almost ignore it because many of those comments contain critiques within themselves. I mean, I think it depends up to see how things play out and if he keeps doing press conferences like the one yesterday where it's just one bizarre statement after another.

The January sixth.

The January sixth.

Comments, for example, where you've had I think over a thousand people have been convicted of criminal offenses, some for sedition and things like that. He keeps trying to downplay these things and that like they were just tourists there that day, but that's obviously preposterous. So you know, he'll keep undermining his own campaign the way your commentators talked about previously. I'm pleased with the way Harris and Walls are focusing on issues. I think American voters are more interested in hearing about some of which you just touched on a few minutes ago, like the economy. Yeah, and I think we have to, you know, stay on our track. And I don't know if they'll ever get on track themselves, but I think it's we're going in the right direction.

Comments, for example, where you've had I think over a thousand people have been convicted of criminal offenses, some for sedition and things like that. He keeps trying to downplay these things and that like they were just tourists there that day, but that's obviously preposterous. So you know, he'll keep undermining his own campaign the way your commentators talked about previously. I'm pleased with the way Harris and Walls are focusing on issues. I think American voters are more interested in hearing about some of which you just touched on a few minutes ago, like the economy. Yeah, and I think we have to, you know, stay on our track. And I don't know if they'll ever get on track themselves, but I think it's we're going in the right direction.

Should Governor Walls clarify some of the questions about his military career? Is that part of the campaign?

Should Governor Walls clarify some of the questions about his military career? Is that part of the campaign?

Yeah, I think he's talked about that some.

Yeah, I think he's talked about that some.

You know, My view so far is that, you know, I think the focus has been on the use of the term war. You know, the United States was at war essentially with you know, over in Afghanistan at the time, so I think it's factually correct on its face. But the larger piece, you know, he was in I think the Guard for twenty four years if I'm not mistaken, and he left.

You know, My view so far is that, you know, I think the focus has been on the use of the term war. You know, the United States was at war essentially with you know, over in Afghanistan at the time, so I think it's factually correct on its face. But the larger piece, you know, he was in I think the Guard for twenty four years if I'm not mistaken, and he left.

Two months before his unit deployed to a rock. They're saying that he abandoned his brothers on arms. That's a heavy charge.

Two months before his unit deployed to a rock. They're saying that he abandoned his brothers on arms. That's a heavy charge.

It's a heavy charge. I think he left to run for Congress. I thought it was ten months too, but maybe I've got the wrong number. But the bottom line is there's no indication of any kind of misconduct or stolen valor or anything along those lines. And when you contrast that with Donald Trump, who pretty much ducked out on service during the Vietnam era, he got the doctor in his father's building to give him a bone spurs Deferral, I don't know.

It's a heavy charge. I think he left to run for Congress. I thought it was ten months too, but maybe I've got the wrong number. But the bottom line is there's no indication of any kind of misconduct or stolen valor or anything along those lines. And when you contrast that with Donald Trump, who pretty much ducked out on service during the Vietnam era, he got the doctor in his father's building to give him a bone spurs Deferral, I don't know.

I don't know if he's yeah, I don't know if he can cast the first stone.

I don't know if he's yeah, I don't know if he can cast the first stone.

So well, you wonder if they're trying to encourage that debate, which would be curious.

So well, you wonder if they're trying to encourage that debate, which would be curious.

Congressman.

Congressman.

I guess broadly though, we're talking about they call this the vibes campaign. There's this new energy that has changed the ground under our feet.

I guess broadly though, we're talking about they call this the vibes campaign. There's this new energy that has changed the ground under our feet.

You can speak to that as you wish.

You can speak to that as you wish.

You're a Democrat, I'm sure you're very excited about what's happening, But have.

You're a Democrat, I'm sure you're very excited about what's happening, But have.

You ever seen a moment like this.

You ever seen a moment like this.

We're an aircraft carrier of a presidential campaign turned on a dime.

We're an aircraft carrier of a presidential campaign turned on a dime.

No, this has been in two weeks.

No, this has been in two weeks.

Yeah, this is pretty dramatic. And you know, the Obama campaign in eight had similar kinds of energy, but it took a long time for it to ramp up to the point a little bit nineteen sixty eight Bobby Kennedy, just as he was hitting his stride before he was assassinated. But that's kind of it in my recollection. And you know, I think she's doing a couple things with that that are positive. One is she's sustaining it. It looks like the walls pick. I know there were some people that wanted other selections, but it looks like it's worked out very well and sort of rallied the troops in any event, including you know, people who wanted other candidates to be picked. And I think she's also continuing to dominate the media. I think part of the reason Trump had the press conference yesterday was he's been sidelined in part by his own silly comments, but also because of the rise of her campaign, and I think he's trying to figure out a way to get back into it. They had advance following them around for a couple of days, kind of.

Yeah, this is pretty dramatic. And you know, the Obama campaign in eight had similar kinds of energy, but it took a long time for it to ramp up to the point a little bit nineteen sixty eight Bobby Kennedy, just as he was hitting his stride before he was assassinated. But that's kind of it in my recollection. And you know, I think she's doing a couple things with that that are positive. One is she's sustaining it. It looks like the walls pick. I know there were some people that wanted other selections, but it looks like it's worked out very well and sort of rallied the troops in any event, including you know, people who wanted other candidates to be picked. And I think she's also continuing to dominate the media. I think part of the reason Trump had the press conference yesterday was he's been sidelined in part by his own silly comments, but also because of the rise of her campaign, and I think he's trying to figure out a way to get back into it. They had advance following them around for a couple of days, kind of.

Jose pressed up against the window.

Jose pressed up against the window.

Yeah, it was kind of funny, but you know it's clear that they're a little desperate and confused about how to go forward.

Yeah, it was kind of funny, but you know it's clear that they're a little desperate and confused about how to go forward.

She need to hold the news conference, do some of these interviews. That's the challenge right now, is that she's not answering questions.

She need to hold the news conference, do some of these interviews. That's the challenge right now, is that she's not answering questions.

Yeah, I don't mind her doing that.

Yeah, I don't mind her doing that.

I think it's there's going to be a plenty of time for a variety of types of news conferences like that. But the introducing herself and her vice presidential candidate, I think are the way to go right now. So I like the speeches in the battleground states, The big rallies make sense. Continuing to push the high energy events make a lot of sense, and you know she can ride that out.

I think it's there's going to be a plenty of time for a variety of types of news conferences like that. But the introducing herself and her vice presidential candidate, I think are the way to go right now. So I like the speeches in the battleground states, The big rallies make sense. Continuing to push the high energy events make a lot of sense, and you know she can ride that out.

I think going forward.

I think going forward.

I want to ask you about the Senate race in Maryland. You've endorsed Angela also Brooks, who's running against a Republican who's not talking a lot like a Republican. Larry Hogan, you're a former governor, is criticizing Donald Trump.

I want to ask you about the Senate race in Maryland. You've endorsed Angela also Brooks, who's running against a Republican who's not talking a lot like a Republican. Larry Hogan, you're a former governor, is criticizing Donald Trump.

Is very disappointed.

Is very disappointed.

He said by the news conference, we need to do is focus on the issues. He held a news conference or an interview, I should say, rather with punch bowl, and he was talking about his opponent, Angela Also Brooks, of course, Prince George's county executive who's running for an historic candidacy for Senate. Larry Hogan said, my opponent really wants to make this about red versus blue, just Democrat versus Republican. Probably take the names off the ballots and all of our records and say you have to vote blue.

He said by the news conference, we need to do is focus on the issues. He held a news conference or an interview, I should say, rather with punch bowl, and he was talking about his opponent, Angela Also Brooks, of course, Prince George's county executive who's running for an historic candidacy for Senate. Larry Hogan said, my opponent really wants to make this about red versus blue, just Democrat versus Republican. Probably take the names off the ballots and all of our records and say you have to vote blue.

Our campaign, he.

Our campaign, he.

Says, is about red, white and blue. Is there some truth to that?

Says, is about red, white and blue. Is there some truth to that?

Not on the ads that I've seen, the ads I've seen. He's running as a Democrat basically, so he said yesterday, I saw one of his ads is choosing people over politics. Now that is the House Democrats slogan for this cycle that we hear from Haakim Jefferys. Yeah, exactly. And then he's he talked about abortion.

Not on the ads that I've seen, the ads I've seen. He's running as a Democrat basically, so he said yesterday, I saw one of his ads is choosing people over politics. Now that is the House Democrats slogan for this cycle that we hear from Haakim Jefferys. Yeah, exactly. And then he's he talked about abortion.

So he's not a real Republican, that is what you're saying.

So he's not a real Republican, that is what you're saying.

Well, he certainly isn't running on their issues, and he's a million miles away from you know what Donald Trump's focus could be. I suppose, given what his commentaries have been. The problem is twofold one is his record, which is I think more significant than what he's saying now. He was never supportive, particularly of abortion rights, and so he's able to get away with that because it's races for governor occurred before Dobbs repealed Roby Wade. Now he can't do that, and the big problem he's got is that if he does get elected, he's already said he would sit with the Republican caucus. What that would mean is fifty one votes. That has an impact on future Supreme Court selections, which certainly Democrats in Maryland are troubled by what Trump's done to the Supreme Court already. And then on the abortion issue, which there's a huge wing in the Republican Party that really wants to nationalize the bands that have taken place in some states. And then you get to gun violence and other issues along those lines where you know the Republicans, for example, just on guns, ghost guns, you know, you can't get one Republican co sponsor to banned ghost guns in the House, which is crazy. I mean, the only reason you would have a ghost gun is if you want to evade prosecution because there's no serial numbers.

Well, he certainly isn't running on their issues, and he's a million miles away from you know what Donald Trump's focus could be. I suppose, given what his commentaries have been. The problem is twofold one is his record, which is I think more significant than what he's saying now. He was never supportive, particularly of abortion rights, and so he's able to get away with that because it's races for governor occurred before Dobbs repealed Roby Wade. Now he can't do that, and the big problem he's got is that if he does get elected, he's already said he would sit with the Republican caucus. What that would mean is fifty one votes. That has an impact on future Supreme Court selections, which certainly Democrats in Maryland are troubled by what Trump's done to the Supreme Court already. And then on the abortion issue, which there's a huge wing in the Republican Party that really wants to nationalize the bands that have taken place in some states. And then you get to gun violence and other issues along those lines where you know the Republicans, for example, just on guns, ghost guns, you know, you can't get one Republican co sponsor to banned ghost guns in the House, which is crazy. I mean, the only reason you would have a ghost gun is if you want to evade prosecution because there's no serial numbers.

These are the guns of the serial number scratch. That's right.

These are the guns of the serial number scratch. That's right.

Guns are made without serial numbers at all, just so that you can avoid prosecution. We can't get one republic Can co sponsor. He's not going to be able to duck those kinds of issues. I don't think as we go forward, as.

Guns are made without serial numbers at all, just so that you can avoid prosecution. We can't get one republic Can co sponsor. He's not going to be able to duck those kinds of issues. I don't think as we go forward, as.

You consider all the questions.

You consider all the questions.

You hear the issues that arise from Oxen Hill from your district, and now the need for money to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge in our remaining moment. How are you going to get that done? Is that in the lame duck? Is it next year?

You hear the issues that arise from Oxen Hill from your district, and now the need for money to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge in our remaining moment. How are you going to get that done? Is that in the lame duck? Is it next year?

How do you get No?

How do you get No?

I think the pushes to try and get it done now, and obviously what happens in November could have an impact on that in a very significant way. We need to get the funding up front for the bridge because it's going to take years for the insurance cases.

I think the pushes to try and get it done now, and obviously what happens in November could have an impact on that in a very significant way. We need to get the funding up front for the bridge because it's going to take years for the insurance cases.

You need to get this done before the election. Is your point?

You need to get this done before the election. Is your point?

Well, well, I'm saying that depending on who wins. I don't know what Trump would do if he gets elect that would jeopardize funding for the bridge.

Well, well, I'm saying that depending on who wins. I don't know what Trump would do if he gets elect that would jeopardize funding for the bridge.

I think it could.

I think it could.

Yeah, I mean he's some of the things that he's talked about and the Trump Project twenty twenty five, you know, policy positions, we're talking about all kinds of radical changes. Another one, the House Republicans came out with a paper to eliminate building the new FBI headquarters and shut that down even though we've been awarded that in Maryland and try and move the whole thing to Alabama, which is like.

Yeah, I mean he's some of the things that he's talked about and the Trump Project twenty twenty five, you know, policy positions, we're talking about all kinds of radical changes. Another one, the House Republicans came out with a paper to eliminate building the new FBI headquarters and shut that down even though we've been awarded that in Maryland and try and move the whole thing to Alabama, which is like.

A little to go to Quantico. Yeah, you knows when I'm really glad you came in. We want to keep tabs with you, and I want to see you in Chicago. You're going to be at the DNC, right absolutely. I look forward to seeing you there. Let's make a plan we'll meet right here on this program. Glenn Ivy, the Democrat from Maryland Oxen Hill. As I said, we drive through the district every day on our way to work.

A little to go to Quantico. Yeah, you knows when I'm really glad you came in. We want to keep tabs with you, and I want to see you in Chicago. You're going to be at the DNC, right absolutely. I look forward to seeing you there. Let's make a plan we'll meet right here on this program. Glenn Ivy, the Democrat from Maryland Oxen Hill. As I said, we drive through the district every day on our way to work.

We'll have a lot more ahead. This is Bloomberg.

We'll have a lot more ahead. This is Bloomberg.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on epocarplaying Thenronoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on epocarplaying Thenronoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Pretty remarkable to think that in one week we're on our way to Chicago and we're going to be bringing you special coverage show of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. With so many issues flying around this campaign, whether it's the economy, abortion, the border, or yes, geopolitics, and we hear a lot about how voters tend not to key their decisions off geopolitical stories, but foreign policy might well make the grade, considering two hot wars underway right now, not only Ukraine, but great questions about our policy in Israel. And you know that, of course, is swirling around the Harris campaign, with the potential now for a cease fire. I know you've heard me say this before, but we're following parallel storylines today in Israel. One is the anticipated retaliation from Iran over the killings of Hesbolah and Hamas officials. The other is the potential for a cease fire with Hamas, with reporting today that the president, leaders of Egypt and Cutter say they are prepared to present a final ceasefire proposal. If you're reading the terminal, you see that new round of ceasefire talks now set for August fifteenth. Very important is we had the voice of Maura Rudman, professor at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia, director of the Ripples of Hope project focused on democratic solutions.

Pretty remarkable to think that in one week we're on our way to Chicago and we're going to be bringing you special coverage show of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. With so many issues flying around this campaign, whether it's the economy, abortion, the border, or yes, geopolitics, and we hear a lot about how voters tend not to key their decisions off geopolitical stories, but foreign policy might well make the grade, considering two hot wars underway right now, not only Ukraine, but great questions about our policy in Israel. And you know that, of course, is swirling around the Harris campaign, with the potential now for a cease fire. I know you've heard me say this before, but we're following parallel storylines today in Israel. One is the anticipated retaliation from Iran over the killings of Hesbolah and Hamas officials. The other is the potential for a cease fire with Hamas, with reporting today that the president, leaders of Egypt and Cutter say they are prepared to present a final ceasefire proposal. If you're reading the terminal, you see that new round of ceasefire talks now set for August fifteenth. Very important is we had the voice of Maura Rudman, professor at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia, director of the Ripples of Hope project focused on democratic solutions.

Mara, it's great to have you back.

Mara, it's great to have you back.

I don't know how you have both of these stories existing at once. And I'm going to point you to one more headline that crossed the terminal. A short time ago from Reuters Biden to lift offensive weapons sales ban to Saudi Arabia. When you factor that in, are we on the verge of a ceasefire breakthrough?

I don't know how you have both of these stories existing at once. And I'm going to point you to one more headline that crossed the terminal. A short time ago from Reuters Biden to lift offensive weapons sales ban to Saudi Arabia. When you factor that in, are we on the verge of a ceasefire breakthrough?

We've been at this point before, as you've noted, everything is possible, which means that I would say we're at an inflection point. We can be moving toward the ceasefire, and those are key meetings next week August fifteenth. It's also significant that cut Our, Egypt, and the United States together put out the statement about pushing for the August fifteenth meeting and about presenting a bridging proposal. At the same time, it's very unclear what Iran will be doing, what hes Glass calculations are, and so the next several days are just critical.

We've been at this point before, as you've noted, everything is possible, which means that I would say we're at an inflection point. We can be moving toward the ceasefire, and those are key meetings next week August fifteenth. It's also significant that cut Our, Egypt, and the United States together put out the statement about pushing for the August fifteenth meeting and about presenting a bridging proposal. At the same time, it's very unclear what Iran will be doing, what hes Glass calculations are, and so the next several days are just critical.

That's for sure.

That's for sure.

I just don't get, and maybe I'm being a little too simple here, Mara, how you can strike a cease fire while Israel is also bracing for a potential retaliation from Iran.

I just don't get, and maybe I'm being a little too simple here, Mara, how you can strike a cease fire while Israel is also bracing for a potential retaliation from Iran.

Are you thinking that won't happen?

Are you thinking that won't happen?

No, I actually I think that the two are actually interlinked. I'm going to bring you back to something that Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was so tragically assassinated by some of the very people related to folks in Bibi Netanyahu's cabinet, but Prime Minister Rabine used to talk about fighting for peace as if there was no war, and fighting wars as if there was no peace, and living in that combined space at the same time. Is typical not just for this reason, but for many conflicts where you've got to look for ways to talk and to get the resolution, and at the same time you've got to be prepared to fully defend yourself.

No, I actually I think that the two are actually interlinked. I'm going to bring you back to something that Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was so tragically assassinated by some of the very people related to folks in Bibi Netanyahu's cabinet, but Prime Minister Rabine used to talk about fighting for peace as if there was no war, and fighting wars as if there was no peace, and living in that combined space at the same time. Is typical not just for this reason, but for many conflicts where you've got to look for ways to talk and to get the resolution, and at the same time you've got to be prepared to fully defend yourself.

We remember, of course, what happened in April when Iran did respond, and the refrain that we've heard across the spectrum is that Hesbealah is not looking for a wider war, Iran is not looking for a wider war, and of course Israel is not.

We remember, of course, what happened in April when Iran did respond, and the refrain that we've heard across the spectrum is that Hesbealah is not looking for a wider war, Iran is not looking for a wider war, and of course Israel is not.

Do you believe that to be true?

Do you believe that to be true?

Yes, I believe that all of the actors, for a variety of reasons, recognize that a wider war is not in their interest. Sadly, in this kind of situation, that doesn't always mean that their actions will not trigger that wider war. And the role of the United States in this case, also of Egypt, Katar, the stautias of everyone else in the region and throughout the world is to try to stress that longer term perspective, to try to keep folks away from the trigger finger so as to speak and to give incentives to the fullest dicton possible to reach forward is an everyone's long term interest, which is to avoid this tit for tot.

Yes, I believe that all of the actors, for a variety of reasons, recognize that a wider war is not in their interest. Sadly, in this kind of situation, that doesn't always mean that their actions will not trigger that wider war. And the role of the United States in this case, also of Egypt, Katar, the stautias of everyone else in the region and throughout the world is to try to stress that longer term perspective, to try to keep folks away from the trigger finger so as to speak and to give incentives to the fullest dicton possible to reach forward is an everyone's long term interest, which is to avoid this tit for tot.

Now, well, we're at a moment where a lot could happen here. And we remember May thirty first, the day that Joe Biden addressed the nation the world from the White House with a six point ceasefire plan that he said Israel had signed off on. We saw, of course, in the days following that Benjamin Netanya, who may have signed off on something in principle, what was clearly not on board with the details at hand. Why should the White House trust him?

Now, well, we're at a moment where a lot could happen here. And we remember May thirty first, the day that Joe Biden addressed the nation the world from the White House with a six point ceasefire plan that he said Israel had signed off on. We saw, of course, in the days following that Benjamin Netanya, who may have signed off on something in principle, what was clearly not on board with the details at hand. Why should the White House trust him?

Now?

Now?

So, the White House is working with the State of Israel, and it's working as well with Qatars and Egyptians who are working with him. As The challenge that all of those who are trying to bring about the ceasefire face is that there are elements for Primerstahu and for ya Ya Sinhar, the head of Hamas where and any kind of seasfire agreement is not in their direct immediate political interests, and yet for many of the people around them, in the case of beating the TYAHUO frankly his entire military and security establishment, as well as the people of Israel, certainly the families of hostages are pushing very hard for the nature and scoping of the ceasefire proposal that has been laid out. And in the case of Hamas, it's not just the countries around. Many Palestinians in Gaza are brave enough, courageous enough to speak out on the record about the challenges and how much they need of ceasefire, which takes a tremendous amount of risk and peril for them. Given the vicious kind of leadership of ya Ya Sinhar.

So, the White House is working with the State of Israel, and it's working as well with Qatars and Egyptians who are working with him. As The challenge that all of those who are trying to bring about the ceasefire face is that there are elements for Primerstahu and for ya Ya Sinhar, the head of Hamas where and any kind of seasfire agreement is not in their direct immediate political interests, and yet for many of the people around them, in the case of beating the TYAHUO frankly his entire military and security establishment, as well as the people of Israel, certainly the families of hostages are pushing very hard for the nature and scoping of the ceasefire proposal that has been laid out. And in the case of Hamas, it's not just the countries around. Many Palestinians in Gaza are brave enough, courageous enough to speak out on the record about the challenges and how much they need of ceasefire, which takes a tremendous amount of risk and peril for them. Given the vicious kind of leadership of ya Ya Sinhar.

We've been surging military assets into the region even more than we already had. Mara F twenty two jets now included several more destroyers in the region. What are we planning for? What are we prepared to do to defend Israel if this retaliatory strike does.

We've been surging military assets into the region even more than we already had. Mara F twenty two jets now included several more destroyers in the region. What are we planning for? What are we prepared to do to defend Israel if this retaliatory strike does.

Come well, what we've put into the region is certainly a show of force and part of a strong deterrence. The strongest deterrence you can mobilize is to show the willingness to be able to defend and to help defend, and so that is part of what is going on right now. Certainly the United States showing with what you've described what we are willing to bring into the region to help Israel defend itself, and any number of private conversations that are going on with players throughout the region. As was reported earlier today, the Jordanians, the Saudis, the Egyptians, others are all talking to Iran as well about scaling this back about the longer term interests of everyone in the region. Jordanians have been clear about not using their airspace for either side, frankly, which is part of I think how the kingdom there is trying to position itself to again damp down actions that could really result in tragedy across the region.

Come well, what we've put into the region is certainly a show of force and part of a strong deterrence. The strongest deterrence you can mobilize is to show the willingness to be able to defend and to help defend, and so that is part of what is going on right now. Certainly the United States showing with what you've described what we are willing to bring into the region to help Israel defend itself, and any number of private conversations that are going on with players throughout the region. As was reported earlier today, the Jordanians, the Saudis, the Egyptians, others are all talking to Iran as well about scaling this back about the longer term interests of everyone in the region. Jordanians have been clear about not using their airspace for either side, frankly, which is part of I think how the kingdom there is trying to position itself to again damp down actions that could really result in tragedy across the region.

Fast forward to August fifteenth, again, the ceasefire talks that have been scheduled the US cutter Egypt. Is this Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln or is this Bill Burns at the table for the United States?

Fast forward to August fifteenth, again, the ceasefire talks that have been scheduled the US cutter Egypt. Is this Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln or is this Bill Burns at the table for the United States?

Do we know?

Do we know?

It's probably a combination. I think that Bill Burns has been the primary leader of this effort of the behind the scenes. I think that Brett McGirk, who's at the White House at the NSC works for Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, is very much kind of day to day hands on, but Bill Burns clearly has a whole team as well, and I'm sure that Secretary of B Lincoln is also very much involved. So it is a full seam effort.