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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and then Rouno with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're on Monday edition of Balance of Power as we wait for not only this market to close, but potentially an announcement on a running mate later today into tomorrow.

You're on Monday edition of Balance of Power as we wait for not only this market to close, but potentially an announcement on a running mate later today into tomorrow.

Kayley.

Kayley.

Of course, it comes after a weekend that we saw Donald Trump on the campaign trail in Atlanta and he's blaming Kamala Harris for this stock drop today. You pointed this out to us when you put it on truth Social. You can't play games with markets. Kamala crash, he's.

Of course, it comes after a weekend that we saw Donald Trump on the campaign trail in Atlanta and he's blaming Kamala Harris for this stock drop today. You pointed this out to us when you put it on truth Social. You can't play games with markets. Kamala crash, he's.

Calling it, yeah, And I'm seeing a lot of Kamala crash circling in certain circles on Is that friendly today? At least trying to make it so. But there is the point of consideration here. I've seen it show up in a number of strategist notes as well that noted that there was a relationship between the way we saw the S and P five hundred performing and the odds of a Trump victory in November, and how much could we attribute what we're seeing today to the fact that there's at least been a recalibration in the race now that Kamala Harris.

Calling it, yeah, And I'm seeing a lot of Kamala crash circling in certain circles on Is that friendly today? At least trying to make it so. But there is the point of consideration here. I've seen it show up in a number of strategist notes as well that noted that there was a relationship between the way we saw the S and P five hundred performing and the odds of a Trump victory in November, and how much could we attribute what we're seeing today to the fact that there's at least been a recalibration in the race now that Kamala Harris.

Is the absolutely comedy.

Is the absolutely comedy.

They were talking about a Harris trade last week with solar stocks and some other things moving. I don't know if that's real either, But Christopher Smart has thoughts on this. I'm glad to say he's back with us, the managing partner. It's our Browth Group, special assistant former special Assistant to the President for International economics during the Obama administration. Christopher, it's good to see you and thanks for joining here. How do you see that idea the unwind of the Trump trade and maybe more broadly, as Barry Riddolts was mentioning earlier disappointment over the idea that corporate taxes may not be caught here in a Kamala Harris campaign turned presidency, is that.

They were talking about a Harris trade last week with solar stocks and some other things moving. I don't know if that's real either, But Christopher Smart has thoughts on this. I'm glad to say he's back with us, the managing partner. It's our Browth Group, special assistant former special Assistant to the President for International economics during the Obama administration. Christopher, it's good to see you and thanks for joining here. How do you see that idea the unwind of the Trump trade and maybe more broadly, as Barry Riddolts was mentioning earlier disappointment over the idea that corporate taxes may not be caught here in a Kamala Harris campaign turned presidency, is that.

Part of this picture on Wall Street?

Part of this picture on Wall Street?

I think if it's part of the picture, it's a very small part of this picture.

I think if it's part of the picture, it's a very small part of this picture.

If it would be the.

If it would be the.

First time in a long time, maybe ever, that for all of my respect for the Vice President of the United States that any vice president of the United States has had any impact on.

First time in a long time, maybe ever, that for all of my respect for the Vice President of the United States that any vice president of the United States has had any impact on.

The equity market.

The equity market.

I think it's also the suddenness of this selloff really tells you more I think about the market itself, the sentiment, the positioning, than any one piece of data. I mean, I think those of us who are trying to piece together what has happened over the last few days, you start adding up small things like the unemployment report, Warren Buffett selling down his equity stake, the yen trade, the carry trade out of Japan unwinding. All of those things kind of add up to this people looking at their portfolios and saying, gosh, I overweight these very risky stocks. The valuations aren't so great, and everybody starts to run for safety. So I think it's more combination of equity market factors than anything even in the macro data, let alone the politics.

I think it's also the suddenness of this selloff really tells you more I think about the market itself, the sentiment, the positioning, than any one piece of data. I mean, I think those of us who are trying to piece together what has happened over the last few days, you start adding up small things like the unemployment report, Warren Buffett selling down his equity stake, the yen trade, the carry trade out of Japan unwinding. All of those things kind of add up to this people looking at their portfolios and saying, gosh, I overweight these very risky stocks. The valuations aren't so great, and everybody starts to run for safety. So I think it's more combination of equity market factors than anything even in the macro data, let alone the politics.

Well, if we zero in on the data, though, if you look at the weak data we got in terms of ism manufacturing, then of course the softer jobs report we got Friday, does anything within that. Christopher suggest to you that regardless of whether or not the FED decides to move inter meeting, as some in the market are betting on today or perhaps move in September in the expected twenty five basis point amount, that the FED already will have gone too late, that something will have already broken by the time we get to that meeting.

Well, if we zero in on the data, though, if you look at the weak data we got in terms of ism manufacturing, then of course the softer jobs report we got Friday, does anything within that. Christopher suggest to you that regardless of whether or not the FED decides to move inter meeting, as some in the market are betting on today or perhaps move in September in the expected twenty five basis point amount, that the FED already will have gone too late, that something will have already broken by the time we get to that meeting.

Well, you've seen it in all the commentary in the last forty eight hours.

Well, you've seen it in all the commentary in the last forty eight hours.

Seriously, I don't think I think it's a.

Seriously, I don't think I think it's a.

Lot of over reaction to a FED that has been very very methodical about its approach, has been fairly transparent about it. I think the calls for an inter meeting cut right now would freak out the market even more than it is right now. And I think we'll probably see you know, maybe if the data continues to come in week, particularly on the employment side, between now and the end of August, we might see fifty instead of twenty five in September. But I'm not sure you're going to see the FED reacting to this market dynamic right now. And as you were just saying a few minutes ago, you know, we're more likely than not to see some people start coming in on the buy side now that you know you can buy in Nvidia at a much at a welcome discount to what you were buying it for a few weeks.

Lot of over reaction to a FED that has been very very methodical about its approach, has been fairly transparent about it. I think the calls for an inter meeting cut right now would freak out the market even more than it is right now. And I think we'll probably see you know, maybe if the data continues to come in week, particularly on the employment side, between now and the end of August, we might see fifty instead of twenty five in September. But I'm not sure you're going to see the FED reacting to this market dynamic right now. And as you were just saying a few minutes ago, you know, we're more likely than not to see some people start coming in on the buy side now that you know you can buy in Nvidia at a much at a welcome discount to what you were buying it for a few weeks.

Ago, fair enough could get better. I guess too.

Ago, fair enough could get better. I guess too.

As we go, Christopher, I'm compelled by this whole narrative that J. Powell has screwed up again. He was late to start, and he's going to be late to finish, when he might be sitting back smirking right now thinking that this is exactly this was the point that he wanted the market to capitulate and he can now move forward with cutting.

As we go, Christopher, I'm compelled by this whole narrative that J. Powell has screwed up again. He was late to start, and he's going to be late to finish, when he might be sitting back smirking right now thinking that this is exactly this was the point that he wanted the market to capitulate and he can now move forward with cutting.

It's it's the poor guy. He's either a dope or an evil mastermind right.

It's it's the poor guy. He's either a dope or an evil mastermind right.

More.

More.

You know, the truth of the matter is he's a really bright guy who's trying to make sense of some very complicated data at a very tricky time in our nation's history, right before a very polarized election. I think, you know, I think the one thing we do know about him and the.

You know, the truth of the matter is he's a really bright guy who's trying to make sense of some very complicated data at a very tricky time in our nation's history, right before a very polarized election. I think, you know, I think the one thing we do know about him and the.

Rest of the members of the FOMC.

Rest of the members of the FOMC.

Is they're not going to jump and react to a few days of trading in the equity market. I think they will pay extra attention to the labor data that's coming in because that's what the market is signaling. I mean, are we wrong about the soft lending? Is there more weakness there than we think?

Is they're not going to jump and react to a few days of trading in the equity market. I think they will pay extra attention to the labor data that's coming in because that's what the market is signaling. I mean, are we wrong about the soft lending? Is there more weakness there than we think?

Is that unemployment.

Is that unemployment.

Uptick because more people are coming out looking for work, or is it because the hiring is cooling down. The data still seems to show that balance sheets are strong, consumer demand is still good. Earnings are weaker, but they were supposed to be weaker. Remember, they were cooling down the economy.

Uptick because more people are coming out looking for work, or is it because the hiring is cooling down. The data still seems to show that balance sheets are strong, consumer demand is still good. Earnings are weaker, but they were supposed to be weaker. Remember, they were cooling down the economy.

That's what he was trying to do.

That's what he was trying to do.

So I guess, Joe, to your point, it does feel to me like he's more likely sitting back and saying this is what I was hoping would happen, rather than you know, panicking.

So I guess, Joe, to your point, it does feel to me like he's more likely sitting back and saying this is what I was hoping would happen, rather than you know, panicking.

Well, as you allude to the question of whether or not the soft landing ultimately is going to be realized, we did see Goldman, Sachs and jan Hatzius over there raising their recession odds in the next year to it. Still, I guess you could say relatively low twenty five percent, So we're talking one and a quarter chance here. That's up from fifteen percent. Where would you put the odds right now?

Well, as you allude to the question of whether or not the soft landing ultimately is going to be realized, we did see Goldman, Sachs and jan Hatzius over there raising their recession odds in the next year to it. Still, I guess you could say relatively low twenty five percent, So we're talking one and a quarter chance here. That's up from fifteen percent. Where would you put the odds right now?

Christopher, I'm sorry, stop the presses. We've gone from fifteen to twenty five percent.

Christopher, I'm sorry, stop the presses. We've gone from fifteen to twenty five percent.

And they're still higher.

And they're still higher.

John is an extraordinarily talented economist and market strategist, so I'm pulling his leg a little bit here, But yes, of course they're higher. They're supposed to be higher. The economy was supposed to be slowing down, the unemployment rate is supposed to be ticking up. The prices, as you recall, which is what we were all focus of the last year, are coming down.

John is an extraordinarily talented economist and market strategist, so I'm pulling his leg a little bit here, But yes, of course they're higher. They're supposed to be higher. The economy was supposed to be slowing down, the unemployment rate is supposed to be ticking up. The prices, as you recall, which is what we were all focus of the last year, are coming down.

And that's the good news. You know.

And that's the good news. You know.

Again, I go back to the market reaction that is causing so much uncertainty right now, and I think we all have to come back and re examine our fundamental approach and our assumptions here. You know, what did we get wrong? What is it we're missing? But the market dynamic here again, I think, tells you much more about the way people are positioned, the way that that risk on trade. People have sort of gotten way out, if I can use an unseasonal metaphor, way out over their skis, and a few worrying data points have sort of triggered this rush to safety. So I think I would expect things not to bounce back suddenly from here. We might get a few more weeks days of chopping markets, but I don't think it's my base case or many people's base case, that.

Again, I go back to the market reaction that is causing so much uncertainty right now, and I think we all have to come back and re examine our fundamental approach and our assumptions here. You know, what did we get wrong? What is it we're missing? But the market dynamic here again, I think, tells you much more about the way people are positioned, the way that that risk on trade. People have sort of gotten way out, if I can use an unseasonal metaphor, way out over their skis, and a few worrying data points have sort of triggered this rush to safety. So I think I would expect things not to bounce back suddenly from here. We might get a few more weeks days of chopping markets, but I don't think it's my base case or many people's base case, that.

We're now suddenly heading into our recession. Next year. But you know, we'll be watching the data later this week.

We're now suddenly heading into our recession. Next year. But you know, we'll be watching the data later this week.

There there's ice data, there's another jobs for the weekly jobs report, and that'll that'll have a lot to do with that'll that'll say a lot about where this market is headed in the near term.

There there's ice data, there's another jobs for the weekly jobs report, and that'll that'll have a lot to do with that'll that'll say a lot about where this market is headed in the near term.

Really interesting.

Really interesting.

So you talk to Christopher Smart for five or ten minutes. You start wondering if maybe it's time to start buying. Maybe this is irrational, Christopher, what would this market look like with a rate cut under its belt? Go ahead and correct me if you want.

So you talk to Christopher Smart for five or ten minutes. You start wondering if maybe it's time to start buying. Maybe this is irrational, Christopher, what would this market look like with a rate cut under its belt? Go ahead and correct me if you want.

Well, I don't want to say you should buy today.

Well, I don't want to say you should buy today.

I'm just saying things are still attractive and you shouldn't be selling today.

I'm just saying things are still attractive and you shouldn't be selling today.

Probably is what I would say. I think.

Probably is what I would say. I think.

You know, again, we're sort of looking at you know, maybe three maybe four twenty five basis point cuts between September and January.

You know, again, we're sort of looking at you know, maybe three maybe four twenty five basis point cuts between September and January.

First you start looking into next year, and you.

First you start looking into next year, and you.

Know, as long as the the hiring data, the corporate the corporate balance sheets remain strong, credit markets still look relatively healthy, and you don't see any kind of I mean, we're all sort of on the lookout still for you know, those hidden accidents. Is it another regional bank, is it an emerging market? Is it's some part of the financial system that we can't see that is suddenly going to break under the stress of high interest rates. Those are all things everybody needs to keep an eye out for. But at least right now, I think it's hard to make the case that the data is saying we are headed for a recession. So I guess you know my longer my my very tentative advice would be, this is not a time to sell, and over the next few months you'll be wanting to look to add.

Know, as long as the the hiring data, the corporate the corporate balance sheets remain strong, credit markets still look relatively healthy, and you don't see any kind of I mean, we're all sort of on the lookout still for you know, those hidden accidents. Is it another regional bank, is it an emerging market? Is it's some part of the financial system that we can't see that is suddenly going to break under the stress of high interest rates. Those are all things everybody needs to keep an eye out for. But at least right now, I think it's hard to make the case that the data is saying we are headed for a recession. So I guess you know my longer my my very tentative advice would be, this is not a time to sell, and over the next few months you'll be wanting to look to add.

Christopher. Finally, we've spent a lot of time talking about the equity market today, it is worth noting in the bond market, however, briefly we did see a uninversion, a disinversion of the two tens curve. Is that a real signal to you, It's.

Christopher. Finally, we've spent a lot of time talking about the equity market today, it is worth noting in the bond market, however, briefly we did see a uninversion, a disinversion of the two tens curve. Is that a real signal to you, It's.

A signal it's worth looking at. I think it's got to be uninverted for it's got to be, you know, steepening over a period of time to really pay more attention to it.

A signal it's worth looking at. I think it's got to be uninverted for it's got to be, you know, steepening over a period of time to really pay more attention to it.

But I think it's certainly something we need to watch.

But I think it's certainly something we need to watch.

I mean, the dynamics of the twos and the tens are very different in terms of flows, different auctions, so I think it's something we need to watch over the longer term.

I mean, the dynamics of the twos and the tens are very different in terms of flows, different auctions, so I think it's something we need to watch over the longer term.

But it's not something any single day. It's going to make a difference.

But it's not something any single day. It's going to make a difference.

Fair enough, We're inverted by about eleven basis points as we speak. Christopher, great to have you on this Monday of Monday's Christopher Smurt, of course, formerly of the Obama administration, now at our growth group.

Fair enough, We're inverted by about eleven basis points as we speak. Christopher, great to have you on this Monday of Monday's Christopher Smurt, of course, formerly of the Obama administration, now at our growth group.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Rodoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Rodoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Live coverage from Washington here standing by for an announcement from the Kamala Harris campaign on a running mate. Reuters reporting earlier in the hour here that it's down to two. It's either Governor's Waltz or Shapiro. Will find out as soon as tonight, or more likely according to some early tomorrow morning, when a video.

Live coverage from Washington here standing by for an announcement from the Kamala Harris campaign on a running mate. Reuters reporting earlier in the hour here that it's down to two. It's either Governor's Waltz or Shapiro. Will find out as soon as tonight, or more likely according to some early tomorrow morning, when a video.

Announcement is made. That's a exactly the way Kaylee lines.

Announcement is made. That's a exactly the way Kaylee lines.

Joe Biden rolled out his selection of Kamala Harris, which looked a lot like the Obama endorsement.

Joe Biden rolled out his selection of Kamala Harris, which looked a lot like the Obama endorsement.

He was actually calling her on the phone. You couldn't see her.

He was actually calling her on the phone. You couldn't see her.

You just heard her voice saying she's ready to get to work, so we might get something like that.

You just heard her voice saying she's ready to get to work, so we might get something like that.

Yeah, of course that was in the twenty twenty cycle when we were in the middle of a pandemic and it was a very different campaign. Meantime, here in twenty twenty four, after she makes this announcement, she is expected to appear alongside this person at a massive rally in Philadelphia. I've seen reports today, Joe that they're expecting more than ten thousand people to be there tomorrow.

Yeah, of course that was in the twenty twenty cycle when we were in the middle of a pandemic and it was a very different campaign. Meantime, here in twenty twenty four, after she makes this announcement, she is expected to appear alongside this person at a massive rally in Philadelphia. I've seen reports today, Joe that they're expecting more than ten thousand people to be there tomorrow.

Yeah, they've got big travel plans, going to be a different city over the course of the week, and jd Vance will be following, which is going to be fun to watch. She's got like the OPO tour here, counter prog counterprogramming each of these events following Kamala Harris around the country.

Yeah, they've got big travel plans, going to be a different city over the course of the week, and jd Vance will be following, which is going to be fun to watch. She's got like the OPO tour here, counter prog counterprogramming each of these events following Kamala Harris around the country.

So it's on.

So it's on.

As they say, yeah, still got to make the pick first, so to weigh in with their thoughts on this pick before it is finally made. Our signature of political panel Rick Davis and Genie Shane and they know are with us, both Bloomberg Politics contributors of course, so Rick, assuming that Reuter's is correct, and this really is between governor's walls and Shapiro. Shapiro, on the one hand, may have a problem with some progressives when it comes to a stance on Israel and Gaza, his handling of campus protests, for example, where while the governor of Minnesota may be too progressive for some, who is least likely to alienate voters here?

As they say, yeah, still got to make the pick first, so to weigh in with their thoughts on this pick before it is finally made. Our signature of political panel Rick Davis and Genie Shane and they know are with us, both Bloomberg Politics contributors of course, so Rick, assuming that Reuter's is correct, and this really is between governor's walls and Shapiro. Shapiro, on the one hand, may have a problem with some progressives when it comes to a stance on Israel and Gaza, his handling of campus protests, for example, where while the governor of Minnesota may be too progressive for some, who is least likely to alienate voters here?

Rick, Well, I think you go to the biggest voter pool. You've got right, Everything is a percentage. Is it easier for Josh Shapiro to win Pennsylvania or Waltz to win Wisconsin? And what is the relevant amount of electoral votes that go with each And I think in both those cases advantage Shapiro. Look, I mean the reality is the most important meeting that took place on Sunday was with Eric Holder, who was carrying over the briefs to the Vice president on the vetting. And what we don't know is what's in the vetted material. Any bad news in that vetting material could have much bigger impact on the candidacies of these men than anything they bring to the table politically.

Rick, Well, I think you go to the biggest voter pool. You've got right, Everything is a percentage. Is it easier for Josh Shapiro to win Pennsylvania or Waltz to win Wisconsin? And what is the relevant amount of electoral votes that go with each And I think in both those cases advantage Shapiro. Look, I mean the reality is the most important meeting that took place on Sunday was with Eric Holder, who was carrying over the briefs to the Vice president on the vetting. And what we don't know is what's in the vetted material. Any bad news in that vetting material could have much bigger impact on the candidacies of these men than anything they bring to the table politically.

Do you like this rollout idea genie the video hits Tuesday morning, they hit the road Philadelphia, carry on throughout the week. And if you do like that idea, wouldn't it seem weird to start this in Philadelphia with the governor of Wisconsin.

Do you like this rollout idea genie the video hits Tuesday morning, they hit the road Philadelphia, carry on throughout the week. And if you do like that idea, wouldn't it seem weird to start this in Philadelphia with the governor of Wisconsin.

The weird label does not fit this team. Joe Matthew that, Okay.

The weird label does not fit this team. Joe Matthew that, Okay.

I used the wrong word.

I used the wrong word.

I'm kidding, you know, I do think it makes sense. You know, we can't say it's an indication that Shapiro has the upper hand and will be the nominee, of course, because as Rick said, we don't know what is in those vetting materials. But I do think regardless of who she chooses, whether it's Waltz, whether it's Shapiro, both of those governors and then also everybody else who's been on this short list are going to come out strongly and continue to support Kamala Harris. They've all made that clear. So I think it is going to be a good role out for them. It's designed to show the vigor, quite frankly, to show the differential and energy and age between a Kamala Harris and a Donald Trump. That had always been advantage Trump when Joe Biden was at the top of the ticket. It's now advantaged Kamala Harris. She is going to be visiting all of these swing states in a very brief period of time, and that is a far cry from what Donald Trump has done. And I'm listening to Kayleie talk about that crowd size they're expecting, and Donald Trump is not going to be happy to hear that as for this weekend.

I'm kidding, you know, I do think it makes sense. You know, we can't say it's an indication that Shapiro has the upper hand and will be the nominee, of course, because as Rick said, we don't know what is in those vetting materials. But I do think regardless of who she chooses, whether it's Waltz, whether it's Shapiro, both of those governors and then also everybody else who's been on this short list are going to come out strongly and continue to support Kamala Harris. They've all made that clear. So I think it is going to be a good role out for them. It's designed to show the vigor, quite frankly, to show the differential and energy and age between a Kamala Harris and a Donald Trump. That had always been advantage Trump when Joe Biden was at the top of the ticket. It's now advantaged Kamala Harris. She is going to be visiting all of these swing states in a very brief period of time, and that is a far cry from what Donald Trump has done. And I'm listening to Kayleie talk about that crowd size they're expecting, and Donald Trump is not going to be happy to hear that as for this weekend.

He doesn't like those.

He doesn't like those.

Kinds of growth Kamala Harris, so he's going to be hoping that that's not the case in the tens of thousands.

Kinds of growth Kamala Harris, so he's going to be hoping that that's not the case in the tens of thousands.

Yeah, he'd probably like his crowd to be even bigger than that when we see him in Montana later this week. Jeanie, I also want to point out some of the polling that we've gotten over the weekend ahead of this VP pick, including the latest CBS which finds the vice president with a one point edge nationally exactly tied with Donald Trump in the battleground states. But something else that caught my attention was that seventy four percent of black registered voters in this poll say they now will definitely vote. That is up sixteen points from the last poll in July when Joe Biden was still in the race. Genie how important is just that notion of higher turnout.

Yeah, he'd probably like his crowd to be even bigger than that when we see him in Montana later this week. Jeanie, I also want to point out some of the polling that we've gotten over the weekend ahead of this VP pick, including the latest CBS which finds the vice president with a one point edge nationally exactly tied with Donald Trump in the battleground states. But something else that caught my attention was that seventy four percent of black registered voters in this poll say they now will definitely vote. That is up sixteen points from the last poll in July when Joe Biden was still in the race. Genie how important is just that notion of higher turnout.

It's very important. It's an indication of enthusiasm. We saw that the increase in terms of people who said they're going to go out and vote amongst likely black voters up tremendously from where it was under Joe Biden. In terms of support, she isn't quite where Joe Biden was in twenty twenty, but she is definitely moving in the right direction. And I think unless she makes a big mistake with the choice, that those numbers will keep moving off as she goes into the Democratic Convention and then beyond. So the mental is certainly on her side, and I think it just underscores how important this choice of a VP is. If she was to make a misstep something very shocking somebody who quite frankly did what jd Vance is doing to a certain extent to Donald Trump, those numbers may stagnate. But it provided she makes a strong choice between one of these two, she's going to be in a good position to carry this momentum forward. So she is feeling very good about where she is. She just can't make any mistakes.

It's very important. It's an indication of enthusiasm. We saw that the increase in terms of people who said they're going to go out and vote amongst likely black voters up tremendously from where it was under Joe Biden. In terms of support, she isn't quite where Joe Biden was in twenty twenty, but she is definitely moving in the right direction. And I think unless she makes a big mistake with the choice, that those numbers will keep moving off as she goes into the Democratic Convention and then beyond. So the mental is certainly on her side, and I think it just underscores how important this choice of a VP is. If she was to make a misstep something very shocking somebody who quite frankly did what jd Vance is doing to a certain extent to Donald Trump, those numbers may stagnate. But it provided she makes a strong choice between one of these two, she's going to be in a good position to carry this momentum forward. So she is feeling very good about where she is. She just can't make any mistakes.

Now, Rick, I want you to bring us inside a campaign that is trying to plan a surprise here, and they're planning it ahead of a five day, seven city tour, so presumably, while reports suggest it's unclear if Kamala Harris has made up her mind, she probably has and I'm guessing a phone call has been made. It's one thirty pm on the East coast right now. They would need to know, I'm guessing twenty four hours in advance of their first event together. But of course you had to stage a super secret transfer of a certain running mate from Alaska to get to the Twin Cities at a convention. To what lengths are they going to right now to keep this quiet?

Now, Rick, I want you to bring us inside a campaign that is trying to plan a surprise here, and they're planning it ahead of a five day, seven city tour, so presumably, while reports suggest it's unclear if Kamala Harris has made up her mind, she probably has and I'm guessing a phone call has been made. It's one thirty pm on the East coast right now. They would need to know, I'm guessing twenty four hours in advance of their first event together. But of course you had to stage a super secret transfer of a certain running mate from Alaska to get to the Twin Cities at a convention. To what lengths are they going to right now to keep this quiet?

Yeah, I mean, the biggest problem they've got is leaking. You know, campaigns aren't known for their tight seals, and so that means and you know, the only way you can really avoid it is having fewer and fewer people around you who actually know what the answer to the question is who's going to get the baton? And so that creates a lot of frustration. But there are two parallel tracks. There's one of the selection process, and we've talked a little bit about what's been happening there, but the campaigns ramping up they're going to have an entire team assembled who will take that vice presidential nominee, whoever it is, and start running around the country with them advanced people, schedulers, speech writers. There's a speech being written as we speak for the Democratic Convention for a speaker who nobody knows who it's going to be yet. And so it's the most bizarre aspect of a presidential campaign, I think, which is this whole initiative around somebody who you don't know yet is being put together and they guess get dropped in at some point tomorrow.

Yeah, I mean, the biggest problem they've got is leaking. You know, campaigns aren't known for their tight seals, and so that means and you know, the only way you can really avoid it is having fewer and fewer people around you who actually know what the answer to the question is who's going to get the baton? And so that creates a lot of frustration. But there are two parallel tracks. There's one of the selection process, and we've talked a little bit about what's been happening there, but the campaigns ramping up they're going to have an entire team assembled who will take that vice presidential nominee, whoever it is, and start running around the country with them advanced people, schedulers, speech writers. There's a speech being written as we speak for the Democratic Convention for a speaker who nobody knows who it's going to be yet. And so it's the most bizarre aspect of a presidential campaign, I think, which is this whole initiative around somebody who you don't know yet is being put together and they guess get dropped in at some point tomorrow.

Well, and of course this doesn't happen in a vacuum either. Certainly it's happening in the context of those watching and listening here on Bloomberg with the knowledge that there's a pretty brutal sell off happening in financial markets. And that's something that isn't unique to today. You could look back to last week as well. The economic data genie would suggest that things are softening in a more material way. How does this kind of split screen risk playing out for Kamala Harris if she wants this excitement around her VP pick, but on the other hand, sentiment around financial markets in the economy may be souring as we speak.

Well, and of course this doesn't happen in a vacuum either. Certainly it's happening in the context of those watching and listening here on Bloomberg with the knowledge that there's a pretty brutal sell off happening in financial markets. And that's something that isn't unique to today. You could look back to last week as well. The economic data genie would suggest that things are softening in a more material way. How does this kind of split screen risk playing out for Kamala Harris if she wants this excitement around her VP pick, but on the other hand, sentiment around financial markets in the economy may be souring as we speak.

Absolutely, and you look at the U GO of CBS poll, that is her biggest weakness. People still feel that they would be much better off under Donald Trump in terms of their personal wealth and the economy, and he, of course is playing off on that. I'm looking at truth social right now. He has repeatedly said Kamala crash versus what is it Trump cash? I guess it is in my notes, and he has said that over I have to keep notes on these things. He has said that over and over and over again, which I think is an indication as to how strongly the campaign feels his campaign and knows that this is an enormous weakness for her. So you know, do I think it's had a huge impact on her at this moment.

Absolutely, and you look at the U GO of CBS poll, that is her biggest weakness. People still feel that they would be much better off under Donald Trump in terms of their personal wealth and the economy, and he, of course is playing off on that. I'm looking at truth social right now. He has repeatedly said Kamala crash versus what is it Trump cash? I guess it is in my notes, and he has said that over I have to keep notes on these things. He has said that over and over and over again, which I think is an indication as to how strongly the campaign feels his campaign and knows that this is an enormous weakness for her. So you know, do I think it's had a huge impact on her at this moment.

No.

No.

You just had a great interview with Christopher Smart where he said vice presidents historically don't cause markets to go down. That's true, But if this remains an issue throughout the campaign, it's her big achilles heel. They've got to get their head around this, and she's got to be able to respond to how she'd do things differently, otherwise this will continue to drag her poll numbers down or at least keep her even with Donald Trump.

You just had a great interview with Christopher Smart where he said vice presidents historically don't cause markets to go down. That's true, But if this remains an issue throughout the campaign, it's her big achilles heel. They've got to get their head around this, and she's got to be able to respond to how she'd do things differently, otherwise this will continue to drag her poll numbers down or at least keep her even with Donald Trump.

Of course, it's not just the stock market itself. It's what the stock market is reflecting here, and if that happens to be a recession, we're dealing with a much greater problem potentially for the incumbent party. Genie Shanzeo, Rick Davis, great conversation, great panel, as always Bloomberg Politics contributors.

Of course, it's not just the stock market itself. It's what the stock market is reflecting here, and if that happens to be a recession, we're dealing with a much greater problem potentially for the incumbent party. Genie Shanzeo, Rick Davis, great conversation, great panel, as always Bloomberg Politics contributors.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Prounoo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Prounoo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

It's another tough one here, as Donald Trump blames the selloff on politics and specifically the idea of Kamala Harris winning the election on truth social of course, as a massive market downturn, Kamala is even worse than Crooked Joe, he writes. Markets will never accept the radical left lunatic that destroyed San Francisco in California as a whole. Well, next move. This is the former president of the United States. All caps, the Great Depression of twenty twenty four. Exclamation point you can't play games with the markets, he says, Kamala crash. Of course, if you listen to and watch Bloomberg, if you have a terminal in front of you, you know there's a lot more going on here. And in times like these we seek wisdom from voices of experience. Of course, no more helpful at this time than the great Barry Riddlets. You know him as the host of Masters and in business here on Bloomberg, but he's also chairman and CEO of Riddlets Wealth Management, and Barry really glad that you could join today. Thank you for being with us here in the political morass. I don't mean to pull you into Trump versus Harris, but can you acknowledge that a change in the polls here is not causing a change in the markets.

It's another tough one here, as Donald Trump blames the selloff on politics and specifically the idea of Kamala Harris winning the election on truth social of course, as a massive market downturn, Kamala is even worse than Crooked Joe, he writes. Markets will never accept the radical left lunatic that destroyed San Francisco in California as a whole. Well, next move. This is the former president of the United States. All caps, the Great Depression of twenty twenty four. Exclamation point you can't play games with the markets, he says, Kamala crash. Of course, if you listen to and watch Bloomberg, if you have a terminal in front of you, you know there's a lot more going on here. And in times like these we seek wisdom from voices of experience. Of course, no more helpful at this time than the great Barry Riddlets. You know him as the host of Masters and in business here on Bloomberg, but he's also chairman and CEO of Riddlets Wealth Management, and Barry really glad that you could join today. Thank you for being with us here in the political morass. I don't mean to pull you into Trump versus Harris, but can you acknowledge that a change in the polls here is not causing a change in the markets.

So let me get to that.

So let me get to that.

But before I zoom in on that, let's start at thirty thousand feet. You know, we all tend to engage in this narrative fallacy that when there's a major dislocation in the market, we go running around looking for what caused this, And so far this morning I've read, well, it was buffets and selling apple. Wait, no, it was the craziness in Japan, the worst market sell off since eighty seven. Oh wait, maybe it's not that. Maybe it's the unwind of the Trump trade. Oh wait, maybe it's the Psalm rule and we have a recession. And it's never, never, never just one thing. It's always a penalope of different factors that come together. Hey, I rarely am on the same side of the trade as Donald Trump, but you could make a feasible argument that part of the rally was an anticipation of Wait, we're gonna get another trillion our tax cut. Wait he's going to lower We already took the corporate tax rate from thirty five to thirty to twenty one. Is he really going to go to fifteen percent? Arguably, when it was Trump versus Biden and it looked like a landslide, some of the rally you can certainly attribute to, Hey, free money fifteen percent, you know, whether it's free money on the monetary side or free money on the fiscal side. And tax cuts are certainly fiscal stimulus. Sure some of that could be that, but it's never just that. If I wanted to pick a single factor, and I hate picking the single factor, but to me, it's the fact that the FED is a year behind the curve. And I've been jumping up and down and screaming this for twelve months. And you know, the only thing worse than being wrong is being right. It of all the many things that are out there, and it's never just one. It looks like, oh, that long and variable lag that the FED has been talking about, well it wasn't quite as long, and it was a little less variable than I think we were expecting.

But before I zoom in on that, let's start at thirty thousand feet. You know, we all tend to engage in this narrative fallacy that when there's a major dislocation in the market, we go running around looking for what caused this, And so far this morning I've read, well, it was buffets and selling apple. Wait, no, it was the craziness in Japan, the worst market sell off since eighty seven. Oh wait, maybe it's not that. Maybe it's the unwind of the Trump trade. Oh wait, maybe it's the Psalm rule and we have a recession. And it's never, never, never just one thing. It's always a penalope of different factors that come together. Hey, I rarely am on the same side of the trade as Donald Trump, but you could make a feasible argument that part of the rally was an anticipation of Wait, we're gonna get another trillion our tax cut. Wait he's going to lower We already took the corporate tax rate from thirty five to thirty to twenty one. Is he really going to go to fifteen percent? Arguably, when it was Trump versus Biden and it looked like a landslide, some of the rally you can certainly attribute to, Hey, free money fifteen percent, you know, whether it's free money on the monetary side or free money on the fiscal side. And tax cuts are certainly fiscal stimulus. Sure some of that could be that, but it's never just that. If I wanted to pick a single factor, and I hate picking the single factor, but to me, it's the fact that the FED is a year behind the curve. And I've been jumping up and down and screaming this for twelve months. And you know, the only thing worse than being wrong is being right. It of all the many things that are out there, and it's never just one. It looks like, oh, that long and variable lag that the FED has been talking about, well it wasn't quite as long, and it was a little less variable than I think we were expecting.

It was just struck by the speed with which this whole narrative has turned. Barry, do you think we get an intermeeting cut and wo? Would that turn the market around if investor's got the sense that the FED cared more than they do now, you.

It was just struck by the speed with which this whole narrative has turned. Barry, do you think we get an intermeeting cut and wo? Would that turn the market around if investor's got the sense that the FED cared more than they do now, you.

Know, Hemingway comes to minds, you know, gradually, then suddenly the narrative with the FED went from well maybe we'll see something in September. All right, we're looking like a quarter point in September. Hey, wait, it's a half a point in September. No, it's Jackson hole in August. Right, People, especially FED chairmen, are loath to admit error. And what Jerome pal would have to say is, hey, you know, this economy is a little more difficult to read and a little more mysterious in our post pandemic era. And maybe I should have been in May or June or July, just as a little bit of you know, like all all stock traders overstay their welcome in a bubble, I think the FED believed their own press releases, in their own pr and said, we got this, We got a soft landing, despite lots and lots of accumulated data that hey, this is starting to build up. It when it finally snaps, it's that gradually. Then all at once, the pressures build, the tectonic plates move back and forth, and the friction holds it in place for as long as it can, and then boom you have an earthquake. And that's pretty much what's going on right here.

Know, Hemingway comes to minds, you know, gradually, then suddenly the narrative with the FED went from well maybe we'll see something in September. All right, we're looking like a quarter point in September. Hey, wait, it's a half a point in September. No, it's Jackson hole in August. Right, People, especially FED chairmen, are loath to admit error. And what Jerome pal would have to say is, hey, you know, this economy is a little more difficult to read and a little more mysterious in our post pandemic era. And maybe I should have been in May or June or July, just as a little bit of you know, like all all stock traders overstay their welcome in a bubble, I think the FED believed their own press releases, in their own pr and said, we got this, We got a soft landing, despite lots and lots of accumulated data that hey, this is starting to build up. It when it finally snaps, it's that gradually. Then all at once, the pressures build, the tectonic plates move back and forth, and the friction holds it in place for as long as it can, and then boom you have an earthquake. And that's pretty much what's going on right here.

Where is J Powell sitting back right now, cracking that beer, saying, you know what, I finally got them to capitulate. Sure, go start lining up the cuts. But this was the hard part.

Where is J Powell sitting back right now, cracking that beer, saying, you know what, I finally got them to capitulate. Sure, go start lining up the cuts. But this was the hard part.

You know.

You know.

There's something to be said for that. Although you know, generally speaking Bedchair generally, but Powell in particular, they don't like these sudden spikes when the vix goes from seventeen to thirty three. When it doubles overnight, they're not happy about that. That's very disruptive. The whole concept of a soft landing is, hey, you know, the engines cut out, but we're gonna bring the plane in without any injury and put it right down. When suddenly a wing falls off, Hey, it gets everybody's attention. I think it would take a lot for them to do that August Jackson Hole cut, but a couple of more days like this. It reminds me of that week in October nine, I'm sorry, October eight, when Congress refused to do anything about the financial crisis. On Monday they were like, no, the markets will figure it out, and then fifteen percent later that Friday they're like, here's a trillion dollars. What else do you need?

There's something to be said for that. Although you know, generally speaking Bedchair generally, but Powell in particular, they don't like these sudden spikes when the vix goes from seventeen to thirty three. When it doubles overnight, they're not happy about that. That's very disruptive. The whole concept of a soft landing is, hey, you know, the engines cut out, but we're gonna bring the plane in without any injury and put it right down. When suddenly a wing falls off, Hey, it gets everybody's attention. I think it would take a lot for them to do that August Jackson Hole cut, but a couple of more days like this. It reminds me of that week in October nine, I'm sorry, October eight, when Congress refused to do anything about the financial crisis. On Monday they were like, no, the markets will figure it out, and then fifteen percent later that Friday they're like, here's a trillion dollars. What else do you need?

So if this stabilizes over here, we're probably looking at September. If this gets appreciably worse, then maybe you know we're back on in August.

So if this stabilizes over here, we're probably looking at September. If this gets appreciably worse, then maybe you know we're back on in August.

You never can tell. It really depends on I love Soros's concept of reflexivity. How do each of these little waves when you throw the pebble in the lake, how do each of these these little ripples affect all the other They kind of combine in unexpected ways, and that's how you end up with a day like today where it wasn't any one thing, but just the confluence of all these things.

You never can tell. It really depends on I love Soros's concept of reflexivity. How do each of these little waves when you throw the pebble in the lake, how do each of these these little ripples affect all the other They kind of combine in unexpected ways, and that's how you end up with a day like today where it wasn't any one thing, but just the confluence of all these things.

Spending time with Barry riddlets here in the teeth of the cellof I wonder your view on the markets, more specifically here Berry and the technical levels that you're watching when it's going to be irresistible, right, We're going to have people jumping back into this AI trade at some point, are trying to gain the system, trying to figure out we're copper bottoms. But we're also going into a seasonally difficult period. So what does the second half look like to you?

Spending time with Barry riddlets here in the teeth of the cellof I wonder your view on the markets, more specifically here Berry and the technical levels that you're watching when it's going to be irresistible, right, We're going to have people jumping back into this AI trade at some point, are trying to gain the system, trying to figure out we're copper bottoms. But we're also going into a seasonally difficult period. So what does the second half look like to you?

You know, when anytime we have a plus fourteen percent, which is a good year in the first two quarters, you know, the temptation is to tap out and take the rest of the year off. Sure, And while the fascinating thing about this moment in time and where we are is, on the one hand, we can clearly see signs of stress building up bottom half of the consumer strata is you know, the lower fifty percent of spenders are certainly feeling stress from higher rates, from increased credit card debt. People who want to buy residential real estate is still dealing with the shortfall of inventory, and that's kept prices very high. We're watching the slow, really the slow motion train wreck of commercial real estate, which is going to unfold over not days or months, but years and decades because of those ten and twenty year leases. And so that's the downside. And yet up until this past month, hiring has been robust, there have been wage gains, there's been consumer spending. Like generally speaking, the economy has been pretty pretty robust and kind of suggests that, hey, you know, this could be a little bit of a headache, but this isn't what is going to send us into a recession. So really, what where we are is, if nothing untoward happens, this economy can keep growing. What are we going to see a plus thirteen percent corporate profits over the next four quarters. That's really substantial, assuming things don't take a down leg. And I hate the on the one hand. On the other hand, but we're really in that middle zone where what the Fed does, how the psychology unwinds Where I mentioned some of this could be the unwind of a Trump trade, could be an unwind of fifteen percent corporate tax rate. On the other hand, you know when you want to have a forward looking political economy. Torsten Slack of Apollo just put something out today about the US industrial renaissance. We've seen a giant uptick in that, so I'm kind of on the fence. We're not in a recession yet, but the warning signs are there that if we don't do something smart, we could be in a recession in three to nine months from now.

You know, when anytime we have a plus fourteen percent, which is a good year in the first two quarters, you know, the temptation is to tap out and take the rest of the year off. Sure, And while the fascinating thing about this moment in time and where we are is, on the one hand, we can clearly see signs of stress building up bottom half of the consumer strata is you know, the lower fifty percent of spenders are certainly feeling stress from higher rates, from increased credit card debt. People who want to buy residential real estate is still dealing with the shortfall of inventory, and that's kept prices very high. We're watching the slow, really the slow motion train wreck of commercial real estate, which is going to unfold over not days or months, but years and decades because of those ten and twenty year leases. And so that's the downside. And yet up until this past month, hiring has been robust, there have been wage gains, there's been consumer spending. Like generally speaking, the economy has been pretty pretty robust and kind of suggests that, hey, you know, this could be a little bit of a headache, but this isn't what is going to send us into a recession. So really, what where we are is, if nothing untoward happens, this economy can keep growing. What are we going to see a plus thirteen percent corporate profits over the next four quarters. That's really substantial, assuming things don't take a down leg. And I hate the on the one hand. On the other hand, but we're really in that middle zone where what the Fed does, how the psychology unwinds Where I mentioned some of this could be the unwind of a Trump trade, could be an unwind of fifteen percent corporate tax rate. On the other hand, you know when you want to have a forward looking political economy. Torsten Slack of Apollo just put something out today about the US industrial renaissance. We've seen a giant uptick in that, so I'm kind of on the fence. We're not in a recession yet, but the warning signs are there that if we don't do something smart, we could be in a recession in three to nine months from now.

Just answered my last question for me too.

Just answered my last question for me too.

I'm really glad you could join us today, Barry. I know we're talking about pretty tough stuff here, but somehow I always feel better after I talk to Berry Riddlets. Find his podcast Masters in Business, which you can hear on Bloomberg Radio on the weekends too.

I'm really glad you could join us today, Barry. I know we're talking about pretty tough stuff here, but somehow I always feel better after I talk to Berry Riddlets. Find his podcast Masters in Business, which you can hear on Bloomberg Radio on the weekends too.

It's one of my favorites.

It's one of my favorites.

Chairman c Io Riddlets Wealth Management, Berry, thank you so much for keeping a levelheader at least helping us do that.

Chairman c Io Riddlets Wealth Management, Berry, thank you so much for keeping a levelheader at least helping us do that.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

There's going to be some important developments in that arena in the next twenty four hours too, as we await expected by tomorrow the vice presidential selection of Vice President Kamala Harris, who will be her running mate. According to Reuters, it has narrowed down to two, the governor of Minnesota and Tim Waltz, or the governor of Pennsylvania in Josh Shapiro. And that's where we begin now with Lara Brown. She's a political scientist and also author of Amateur Hour, Presidential Character and the Question of Leadership. Welcome back to Balance of Power here on Bloomberg TV and Radio, Lara, As we consider that it may be down to just two choices, which one makes the most political sense to you?

There's going to be some important developments in that arena in the next twenty four hours too, as we await expected by tomorrow the vice presidential selection of Vice President Kamala Harris, who will be her running mate. According to Reuters, it has narrowed down to two, the governor of Minnesota and Tim Waltz, or the governor of Pennsylvania in Josh Shapiro. And that's where we begin now with Lara Brown. She's a political scientist and also author of Amateur Hour, Presidential Character and the Question of Leadership. Welcome back to Balance of Power here on Bloomberg TV and Radio, Lara, As we consider that it may be down to just two choices, which one makes the most political sense to you?

Well, I would think that Governor Josh Shapiro does if you're just looking at those two choices, largely because what is important for the vice president to shore up are essentially Republicans who don't feel they have a home within the Republican Party. There are right leaning independents, and there are Republicans who have decided that they are uncomfortable voting for Trump and supporting a Trump Vance ticket, And so that is really the play in terms of the voters that Vice President Harris should want to attract because that will help her the most in the battleground states.

Well, I would think that Governor Josh Shapiro does if you're just looking at those two choices, largely because what is important for the vice president to shore up are essentially Republicans who don't feel they have a home within the Republican Party. There are right leaning independents, and there are Republicans who have decided that they are uncomfortable voting for Trump and supporting a Trump Vance ticket, And so that is really the play in terms of the voters that Vice President Harris should want to attract because that will help her the most in the battleground states.

Well, you consider the importance Laura of Pennsylvania, and you do wonder why we're spending so much time talking about this. Isn't Josh Shapiro as well, considering the deep relationship that he has with Barack Obama, as outlined in The New York Times earlier today. Isn't this the slam dunk that the campaign's looking for?

Well, you consider the importance Laura of Pennsylvania, and you do wonder why we're spending so much time talking about this. Isn't Josh Shapiro as well, considering the deep relationship that he has with Barack Obama, as outlined in The New York Times earlier today. Isn't this the slam dunk that the campaign's looking for?

Sure?

Sure?

I mean, I think most people have always seen him as a strong favorite. You know, there are other options. Obviously, Governor Andy Basher in Kentucky would not be a bad choice because he fulfills some of the Union's desires, but at the same time has been governing in a very conservative state for years. So I do think there are other options for her. But at the end of the day, it's going to come down to who she is most comfortable with and who she feels can be the most helpful. And that doesn't necessarily mean taking Governor Shapiro out of his state and taking him to other places. It may mean leaving him in a state to help build that coalition there.

I mean, I think most people have always seen him as a strong favorite. You know, there are other options. Obviously, Governor Andy Basher in Kentucky would not be a bad choice because he fulfills some of the Union's desires, but at the same time has been governing in a very conservative state for years. So I do think there are other options for her. But at the end of the day, it's going to come down to who she is most comfortable with and who she feels can be the most helpful. And that doesn't necessarily mean taking Governor Shapiro out of his state and taking him to other places. It may mean leaving him in a state to help build that coalition there.

Well, certainly on the other side, the vice presidential nominee is not being left in his state of Ohio. J d Vance is going to be on the trail essentially following this swing state swing that the Democratic ticket will be on. We, I guess will wait and see whether or not we're going to get a debate between jd Vance and Shapiro or Waltz or whoever it may be. We also don't know, Laura, if we're going to get a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Of course, Donald Trump over the weekend said that he's agreed to one, just a different one than Harris agreed to. He wants to debate on Fox on September four, She wants to debate on ABC on September tenth. How do you ultimately think this gets resolved is there's just not going to be one.

Well, certainly on the other side, the vice presidential nominee is not being left in his state of Ohio. J d Vance is going to be on the trail essentially following this swing state swing that the Democratic ticket will be on. We, I guess will wait and see whether or not we're going to get a debate between jd Vance and Shapiro or Waltz or whoever it may be. We also don't know, Laura, if we're going to get a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Of course, Donald Trump over the weekend said that he's agreed to one, just a different one than Harris agreed to. He wants to debate on Fox on September four, She wants to debate on ABC on September tenth. How do you ultimately think this gets resolved is there's just not going to be one.

Well, let's not forget that former President Trump.

Well, let's not forget that former President Trump.

Did back out of the ABC debate.

Did back out of the ABC debate.

That was set. It was scheduled, his team agreed to it, and really, at the end of the day, he doesn't like the idea of now having to debate Harris instead of Biden, and so he has decided to put forth his own proposal. This is a more favorable proposal because it's not only on Fox News, but it would be with a live audience which are purportedly mostly Fox viewers. Therefore, people who would be cheering him on. It is a different proposal. And if he doesn't show up on September tenth at the ABC debate, then ABC has said they will make that airtime available to Harris anyway, So I think, you know, we don't know how this is going to play out, but if he doesn't show up for September tenth, I think that is much more damaging to his campaign than if she refuses his latest proposal to go on Fox.

That was set. It was scheduled, his team agreed to it, and really, at the end of the day, he doesn't like the idea of now having to debate Harris instead of Biden, and so he has decided to put forth his own proposal. This is a more favorable proposal because it's not only on Fox News, but it would be with a live audience which are purportedly mostly Fox viewers. Therefore, people who would be cheering him on. It is a different proposal. And if he doesn't show up on September tenth at the ABC debate, then ABC has said they will make that airtime available to Harris anyway, So I think, you know, we don't know how this is going to play out, but if he doesn't show up for September tenth, I think that is much more damaging to his campaign than if she refuses his latest proposal to go on Fox.

Well, I have to ask you about the messaging from the Trump campaign over the weekend. Donald Trump made his way to Atlanta, in fact, spoke in the very same room where Kamala Harris had a very large rally last week, got a lot.

Well, I have to ask you about the messaging from the Trump campaign over the weekend. Donald Trump made his way to Atlanta, in fact, spoke in the very same room where Kamala Harris had a very large rally last week, got a lot.

Of attention for it, and he used his time.

Of attention for it, and he used his time.

There's a lot of time was another stem winer from Donald Trump, but he used a lot of that time to bash the Republican leader, the Republican governor of the state of Georgia, which many would argue he needs to win to be the president again.

There's a lot of time was another stem winer from Donald Trump, but he used a lot of that time to bash the Republican leader, the Republican governor of the state of Georgia, which many would argue he needs to win to be the president again.

Here's what he said.

Here's what he said.

Your Governor Kemp and Raffinsburgers are doing everything possible to make twenty twenty four difficult for Republicans to win.

Your Governor Kemp and Raffinsburgers are doing everything possible to make twenty twenty four difficult for Republicans to win.

That what are they doing?

That what are they doing?

I don't know.

I don't know.

They got something in mind, you know they got a little something in mind. Kemp is very bad for the Republican Party.

They got something in mind, you know they got a little something in mind. Kemp is very bad for the Republican Party.

He wouldn't do anything.

He wouldn't do anything.

Laura, what do you make of this this kind of talk, knowing how popular Governor Kemp is in Georgia and what is Donald Trump suggesting that they have going on.

Laura, what do you make of this this kind of talk, knowing how popular Governor Kemp is in Georgia and what is Donald Trump suggesting that they have going on.

I don't know what he's suggesting, and it's mystifying as to why he would take apart one of his own allies that he needs, who is also said that he would vote for the ticket. So Kemp has not backed away from Trump and former President Trump have embraced him in his state and really elevated the Republican unity. But instead he chose to create more divisiveness. And I think it's going to really sort of play poorly for him in that state because Kemp is popular and certainly there is nothing untoward going on with respect the election there.

I don't know what he's suggesting, and it's mystifying as to why he would take apart one of his own allies that he needs, who is also said that he would vote for the ticket. So Kemp has not backed away from Trump and former President Trump have embraced him in his state and really elevated the Republican unity. But instead he chose to create more divisiveness. And I think it's going to really sort of play poorly for him in that state because Kemp is popular and certainly there is nothing untoward going on with respect the election there.

Well, of course, we did get a response from Governor Kemp on social media. He posted on x saying that his focus is on winning this November, saving our country from Kamala Harris and the Democrats. Went on to say, not engaging in petty personal insults, attacking fellow Republicans or dwelling on the past on the petty personal insult point that is coming from a Republican governor. Mind you, Laura, we've talked a lot in the last week about personally insulting Kamala Harris on the part of Donald Trump questioning her racial identity for example. How quickly does the Trump campaign need to get that discipline message on the issues out there or risk alienating significant chunks of voters that they thought they may be able to bring alongside this cycle.

Well, of course, we did get a response from Governor Kemp on social media. He posted on x saying that his focus is on winning this November, saving our country from Kamala Harris and the Democrats. Went on to say, not engaging in petty personal insults, attacking fellow Republicans or dwelling on the past on the petty personal insult point that is coming from a Republican governor. Mind you, Laura, we've talked a lot in the last week about personally insulting Kamala Harris on the part of Donald Trump questioning her racial identity for example. How quickly does the Trump campaign need to get that discipline message on the issues out there or risk alienating significant chunks of voters that they thought they may be able to bring alongside this cycle.

Well, the problem is is that you can't really control former President Trump. I think Republicans have known this for a long time. His message is what he wants to say, and it is very difficult to corral him toward any sort of policy conversation and the like. And when they did, you know, the Project twenty twenty five has been nothing but sort of a disaster for Republicans, and yet that was supposed to be their grand conservative you know, proposals that they were going to put forward as being part of Trump's new presidency, and Trump himself backed away from it when you realized sort of how conservative and how extreme some of them were. So, you know, really, at the end of the day, former President Trump is running a personal campaign. He is a candidate who believes in celebrity, and he is somebody who believes in kind of his own ability to deliver a state to his presidency. But that has not been the case in the past, and we'll have to see how it plays going forward.

Well, the problem is is that you can't really control former President Trump. I think Republicans have known this for a long time. His message is what he wants to say, and it is very difficult to corral him toward any sort of policy conversation and the like. And when they did, you know, the Project twenty twenty five has been nothing but sort of a disaster for Republicans, and yet that was supposed to be their grand conservative you know, proposals that they were going to put forward as being part of Trump's new presidency, and Trump himself backed away from it when you realized sort of how conservative and how extreme some of them were. So, you know, really, at the end of the day, former President Trump is running a personal campaign. He is a candidate who believes in celebrity, and he is somebody who believes in kind of his own ability to deliver a state to his presidency. But that has not been the case in the past, and we'll have to see how it plays going forward.

Political scientist Lara Brown, the author of Amateur, Our Presidential Character and the Question of Leadership. Laura, it's great to see you, and we thank you for the insights today.

Political scientist Lara Brown, the author of Amateur, Our Presidential Character and the Question of Leadership. Laura, it's great to see you, and we thank you for the insights today.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Evocarplay and then Rounoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Evocarplay and then Rounoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

With our eyes on the campaign trail and an announcement that could come at any time between today and say this time tomorrow from the Kamala Harris campaign. The reason why we say that is because her first event with her new running mate is set for tomorrow, Row afternoon. So here we are knowing that she met over the weekend with the three finalists at the Naval Observatory, that is where the Vice president lives, and all the while Donald Trump was in Atlanta, spoke to the same room. As a matter of fact, different people, but in the same room that Kamala Harris held that big rally last week that everybody made a big deal about. It was another stem winder by the former president. Here's Donald Trump in Atlanta.

With our eyes on the campaign trail and an announcement that could come at any time between today and say this time tomorrow from the Kamala Harris campaign. The reason why we say that is because her first event with her new running mate is set for tomorrow, Row afternoon. So here we are knowing that she met over the weekend with the three finalists at the Naval Observatory, that is where the Vice president lives, and all the while Donald Trump was in Atlanta, spoke to the same room. As a matter of fact, different people, but in the same room that Kamala Harris held that big rally last week that everybody made a big deal about. It was another stem winder by the former president. Here's Donald Trump in Atlanta.

Your Governor Kemp and Rafflinsberger are doing everything possible to make twenty twenty four difficult for Republicans to win.

Your Governor Kemp and Rafflinsberger are doing everything possible to make twenty twenty four difficult for Republicans to win.

What are they doing?

What are they doing?

I don't know.

I don't know.

They got something in mind, you know, they got little something in mind. Camp is very bad for the Republican Party.

They got something in mind, you know, they got little something in mind. Camp is very bad for the Republican Party.

He wouldn't do anything.

He wouldn't do anything.

What do they have in mind?

What do they have in mind?

This attack on Governor Kemp, of course, very popular in Georgia, was resonating on the Sunday morning shows and a lot of folks are wondering if this is in fact the same old Trump. Maybe not entirely reformed following an attempt at send a nation attempt.

This attack on Governor Kemp, of course, very popular in Georgia, was resonating on the Sunday morning shows and a lot of folks are wondering if this is in fact the same old Trump. Maybe not entirely reformed following an attempt at send a nation attempt.

Mick mulvaney knows all about it.

Mick mulvaney knows all about it.

The former acting White House Chief of Staff, former director of omb former member of Congress. In fact, he co founded the House Freedom Caucus and a regular voice on this program. Nick, what does Governor Kemp have cooking?

The former acting White House Chief of Staff, former director of omb former member of Congress. In fact, he co founded the House Freedom Caucus and a regular voice on this program. Nick, what does Governor Kemp have cooking?

What? What was Donald Trump suggesting?