Israel Strike Targets Hezbollah Commander in Beirut

Published Jul 30, 2024, 8:13 PM

Watch Joe and Kailey LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition:

  • Center for Strategic and International Studies Middle East Program Senior Fellow Natasha Hall about Israel's strike on Beirut targeting a senior Hezbollah commander.
  • Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee about the passage of the Kids Online Safety Act in the Senate Tuesday.
  • Echo Canyon Consulting Founding Partner and CEO Jon Seaton about Tuesday's primary elections in Arizona.
  • Bloomberg Politics Contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino about the recent ad buys by the Trump Campaign and the Harris Campaign.
  • Editor at Large of The Bulwark Bill Kristol about Kamala Harris' shortlist for vice president and the Trump-Vance Republican ticket.

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Israeli officials now confirming the fact that there has been a retaliatory strike against Tesbola in the suburbs of Beirut. We're looking at three rockets here, Kayley, following the rocket attack on the soccer field in the goal on heights that claim the lives of twelve young people.

This is just breaking now.

It's something just emerging this hour, So we want to be careful with the limited amount of information we have, but a great opportunity to bring in the voice of an expert. We're joined by Natasha Hall, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Study the Middle East Program. Natasha, it's good to see you. Thank you for joining us here today on Bloomberg.

Thanks for having me.

There was a question about what the response would be. Does this seem proportionate in the outset?

So I would say that I was speaking to diplomats just a bit earlier than this, and there had been some evacuation of the Dahia, or this suburban area of Beirut that is also a Hesibalala stronghold. So many people in the area knew that this might be the targeted area and had been evacuating for some time. That said, we should still be aware of the civilian casualties that might be at play, because this is a neighborhood after all. But I would say that this was something that was to be expected, and.

Of course there is a lot we don't know, including what casualties may have resulted from this. We just know that Israel was targeting a Hesbelah commander, but of course we know that Israel often targets specific people and there is more collateral damage that comes with it. We just had a headline from N twelve TV citing in Israelia saying that they are not looking to start a regional war. Does that just depend though, on the response that Hesbela may deliver to this. Israel has made its.

Move, I would say that for Hesbealah and for Israel, a regional escalation is not in the cards, or at least they don't want it to be in the cards that said, there could always be an escalation essentially by accident, which is essentially what happened with the Mujdischemps attack that you mentioned that killed twelve young people so recently. This was a mistake essentially. It seems like it was a strike strike that was a mistake, and so it's just something like that, just any kind of spark that could lead to a wider conflagation, and that's what we're all very very worried about right now. I think Joe Biden and others within the administration are working very very hard not to see that regional escalation because that would essentially mean a two front war for Israel as well.

What is Iran telling Hesbela right now?

I would say that Iran all so does not want much of an escalation at this point. It is getting major political points within the region, and I would say in the world for everything that Israeli Israeli officials are doing pretty much on their own within Israel in terms of what's the horrific humanitarian catastrophe going on in Gaza right now, but also what's going on within Israel in terms of the political turmoil there so it doesn't seem to me that Iran would really need to do much to damage Israel standing any further.

So, if we're if this is a matter of incentives to not escalate further, whose incentive is greater to be holding back here? Is it Israel or Iron in its proxies.

So that's a good question. So you're saying Israel, but really what we're talking about is a handful of Israel the issue government, right the Netanyahu government, which I think is different than necessarily what the interests of israelis or Israel would be. And that's and that's concerning, and that's been concerning for US officials for some time, that Netanyah, who might prolong a war, even expand away war so that he could maintain control within the government. That said, I think the Iranian officials will probably try to mitigate the larger consequences of this war, but also use all of the internal turmoil that's going on in Israel and what's going on in Gaza to really build up more political points here. That said, you know, you're poking the bear, the bear being has Bulah, and there might have to be other retaliatory strikes, depending on the extent of the attacks that we've just been talking about.

Well, that's a great point that we might not be done here, which is why we do want to be cautious with our analysis in the early going. But what does this mean for Hamas? What does this mean for Gaza? At this point as everyone turns their attention to something potentially more in the north, there's much to be resolved. Still, We've broken down our temporary peer, they're still struggling to get humanitarian aid into an area that you just qualified as a humanitarian crisis.

What is happening right now in Gaza is horrific, and we've just heard reporting just last week that there's been evidence that polio it might be spreading within Gaza as well, which should be terrifying not just for Palestinians, but for the larger region as well. Speaking of regional escalation, this would have been the moment that Kamala Harris and Joe Biden in the administration could have potentially used to increase humanitarian aid and access into Gaza to mitigate a larger escalation, actually an epidemic in a sense. We haven't seen that yet, but that needs to happen. There needs to be a ceasefire in order for actual proper response to this potential threat to Israel as well. But we have not seen that yet because there's been a lot of other distractions in the North but also within Israel itself, and so it's unclear after Netanyahu's speech last week in Congress whether there will be a ceasefire.

Deal well, and we know that negotiators will working on that. In recent days they were meeting in Rome. We heard from the Prime Minister's office net Yahoo's that is that Hesba Hamas rather was changing some of its demands.

What do you think the real.

Prospect is of a ceasefire agreement temporary or otherwise being reached in the near term when they have been trying at this effort for months now.

Right, I mean, and we were seriously talking about a ceasefire deal in February, and you know we're ten months in at this point now. I think that it really depends on how much pressure is applied by external elements like the United States or Iran on the warring parties at this point. There was a recent poll actually in Israel that Israelis are primarily blaming Netsa Yahu more than even Hamas for the lack of a hostage deal at this point. There's a great deal of frustration with Netanyahu on delivering the hostages at this point, and so that could be the political pressure that's needed for Netanyahu to get a plan. Also, Kamala Harris's speech last week was very powerful in the sense that she made it known that it was time for a deal to happen. And so I think that if there is mounting pressure, especially from the North now as well also within Israel, that Israel might need to decide to take it down a notch in other areas that could potentially be Gaza and aim for some kind of ceasefire, but it might be too early to tell.

Well, it's great to have you with us, Natasha Hall, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Middle East Program. A great moment to have you with us here. Unfortunately, not the best news today. We'd like to stay in touch with you on this as we learn more.

Thank you so much.

I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington. Kayley, that ceasefire is something that remains elusive, but something that we will continue to talk about as long as it remains possible. We've got an important conversation ahead with Senator Marshall Blackburn, whos been awfully busy today.

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Thanks for joining.

You're on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Indeed, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lions in Washington where Kaylee. Things are happening today. The House may be gone, but the Senate has actually been busy. There are a couple of important things taking place today. One of them brings us back to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. An important hearing today, a joint hearing the Senate Judiciary and Homeland Security hearings with the new boss, the acting at least boss, Acting Secret Service Director Ron Rowe. And also an important vote, Kayley, as the Senate passes legislation.

To protect kids online.

We've talked about this quite a bit, for instance, with Senator Marshall Blackburn. Unclear where this goes in the House, but this is the first time really the lawmakers have managed to get their arms around us.

Yeah, and in a bipartisan way. The vote was ninety one to three to approve this measure, which will essentially impose sweeping safety and privacy requirements for children and teenagers on social media platform So clearly a bipartisan effort. It will now get sent to the House, where, of course, they don't actually return to Washington until September ninth, and we'll quickly be talking about a funding fight to avoid a government shutdown after the fiscal year expires on September thirtieth. So let's talk about the realistic prospects for the specific legislation and bring in one of its supporters. As Joe mentioned, the Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee is with us now from Capitol Hill. Senator, thank you so much and welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm sure you're pleased with the results of this vote in the Senate today. Have you had discussions with your colleagues in the House about what its future may be in the other Chamber.

Yes, indeed, I have had those discussions. We have bipartisan leaders in the House and broad bipartisan support. You have Congresswoman Caster Congressman Billa Roccas, and they're the leads in the House, and there is broad bipartisan support across the body of the House for pushing this forward. I think that you will see House leadership move it to the floor for a vote, and we will get this to the President's desk. The reason for that is there has been an unbelievable coalition of parents and school principles and educators and pediatricians and kids that have said there need to be protections in the virtual space so that we are not subjected to some of these algorithmic rabbit trails that kids into up on when they are in the virtual space.

And you know, it's so interesting.

Parents and kids alike have realized, when you're online, you are the product. And the longer they keep you online, the more scrolling you do, the richer that data is, the more money they make. And that is one of these social media companies. Even though they've known what they were doing was addictive and was causing harm, they've.

Continued to do it. They have put profits before our.

Children, algorithmic rabbit trails.

I like that, Senator.

I remember distinctly on the thirty first of January, and I know you do too, a remarkable moment in which Mark Zuckerberg was invited to and he did stand up in a judiciary committee hearing, turn around and apologize to some of the folks who were there. Quote it's terrible, he said, No one should have to go through the things that your families have suffered. As Josh Holly pressed him about whether he would apologize directly to parents, how does this legislation.

Prevent other parents from ending up in that world?

Yes, what the legislation does is safety by design. This is a product design piece of legislation. Just as we have consumer protections in many products, this is putting those protections in place in the virtual space. It requires a duty of care. There's a toolbox for kids and parents. It opens the algorithmic black boxes. It has a portal to report bad actors in the virtual space, and then these social media platforms have to block or remove those bad actors. As we know, pedophiles, drug dealers, human traffickers, sex traffickers, cyberbullies are all utilizing this space to harm children. And in the physical world, you can't sell tobacco and alcohol, our pornography to a child, you can't take them into a strep club. And people would say, why are there not protections in the virtual space, because our children are exposed to this twenty four seven three sixty five, And this is that first step, and we look forward to the House quickly taking action and sending it to the President for signature.

Senator, we've seen when it comes to social media companies and the moderation of content, whomever that content is targeted towards, has raised some First Amendment questions. We've seen this in legal challenges that have gone all the way to the Supreme Court in its most recent term. Do you expect there to be any First Amendment issues with this piece of legislation that these social media companies may use to fight it.

This is not a speech bill, it is not a content bill. This is a product design bill, and we feel good about the placement. We have worked for over three years with stakeholders. We have worked with parents, so we've worked with physicians and pediatricians, and no, I feel very good about where we have this legislation.

Senator Blackburn, we saw you in Milwaukee confronting the now former Director of the Secret Service, Kimberly Cheatle, has resigned her post following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. I know you had some very stern words for her. Captured on video, our viewers on Bloomberg TV can see you essentially chasing her down the hall with a piece of your mind. You had a chance today to talk with at least her temporary replacement, the acting Secret Service Director, Ron Roe, who was there with the deputy FBI director talking about the cleanup here. Essentially, Senator, did you hear what you needed to hear to believe to have faith that the Secret Service can correct the mistakes that led to this.

What we were today.

Director Roe described himself as a change agent. I think we will see how he is going to execute that change.

I did ask him.

About the whistleblower email that was released and made public today where the whistleblower says, you know, it's a cya. That is the mission at the Secret Service. Everybody's practicing that. And Director Rowe has been a career guy, he's been there for twenty five years.

We will see if he is actually able to.

Do some change and restore some trust and some faith.

And I asked him if he was.

Going to allow these whistleblowers who are complaining about the culture that has developed there at the Secret Service to come forward and tell their story and to work with us as we try to make certain the Secret Service is able to do their job. They obviously did not do their job in Butler, Pennsylvania.

And then also concerns with.

The FBI, and a deputy Director Abate was with us. I questioned him on the social media accounts there had been some confusion around that little bit of contradiction coming from the FBI.

There's an account when Crooks.

Was younger, and then there is the gab account that takes us up closer to the time that he carried out the assassination attempt. But how in the world they expect people to have trust in the FBI When former President Trump was allowed by the Secret Service to take the stage at six o'clock, when at five point fifty one they knew they had a potential threat within range of him in that outer perimeter. It is just unbelievable. And how could they leave a water tower unattended and the Secret Service has thirty one individuals former presidents, current president, vice president, families, and some others that have received death threat so total of thirty one people. These individuals need to know that the Secret Service is there to protect their lives and that they're going to be well tended.

And as you saw in.

The hearing, there is much agreement on a bipartisan basis about how the Secret Service has moved forward in recent months.

Well, certainly, Senator, between that hearing and the votes today, it's been a busy day in your chamber and your work is not yet done for the week. We understand on Thursday you'll have a chance to vote for a tax deal that passed the House with a massive bipartisan majority, in part tax breaks for businesses with an extension of the child tax credit. Considering you were just talking to us about protecting children in the online space, will you pass it up the opportunity to potentially protect some of them from pop.

And what we want to do is make certain that we get this bill right. This bill has some serious flaws, and I think what you will do is see I don't think they'll get sixty votes to move forward with this. There are issues with this bill, and let's get it right. Let's make those tax cuts permanent with that R and D tax credit, and then of course we've got opportunity zones to new market credits, work opportunity credits. We are far from ready to move forward with that bill.

Senator. We've only got about a minute left here.

I don't want to set you up to cut you off, but I have to ask you about Israel's response to Hesbalah. You said last weekend quote we must stand with Israel following the attack that claim the lives of twelve young people. We now have seen at least the initial response with the rocket attack against an area in the suburbs of Beirut. Is that appropriate from your view?

You know, I want to make certain that Israel has what they need.

To protect themselves.

And we also know that Iran is the main sponsor of terrorism globally. We know what they have done to fund to equip to train Hamas Hezbila, the Huthi's isis in Iraq, and I think it would be appropriate for President Biden to step forward and put those sanctions President Trump had on Iran.

Put the sanctions back on so they.

Are not able to sell their oil on the global stage.

Are you concerned that this is a proportionate attack though or response, I should say, Senator, do you think Israel should do more to make a point to stop Hezbalah.

I want to make certain that Israel can defend itself.

As you mentioned earlier, we've had a busy day.

I have not looked at at any of the detail around the attack.

I learned about that from.

You all understood.

Well, it's kind of you to spend some time with us. As always, Senator Marshall Blackburn, the Republican from Tennessee with a big vote today, remarkable vote. As a matter of fact, Kiley, it's not often when we see numbers like this these days on Capitol Hill. We'll see what happens in the house.

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The ad wars begin.

We give you taste of the Kamala Harris ad that just started running today, a biographical ad an attempt to introduce her all over again to the nation. Donald Trump wants to remind everyone of Kamala Harris's record in his ad that's now up in six swing states. Here's a taste of that one.

This is America's borders are, and she's failed us under Harris. Over ten million illegally here a quarter of a million Americans dead from petroar drutal migrant crimes. An isis now here.

So let's consider more the states in which this border message may resonate most clearly, including states like Arizona state that our next guest knows quite well. John Seaton is here with us in our Washington, d C studio, who's founding partner and CEO at Echo Canyon Consulting and a Republican strategist. John, great to see you here in Washington. Thank you for being with us. We of course want to talk to you about the Arizona congressional primaries that are happening today as well. But if we could first begin with the landscape in what is a battleground state with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Knowing that Harris does have this perceived weakness on the border, how does that play on the ground in Arizona.

It's a huge deal in Arizona. Every single survey that you see, the number one issue not just for Republican primary voters, but really for general election.

Voters as well is the border.

It's an out of control perceived as an out of control crisis. It's top of mind for voters. Whether you are in southern Arizona, right near the border in Yuma, or up in Maricopa County where the bulk of the vote is. Voters are very concerned with what's going on down in the southern border.

How do voters in Arizona then associate Senator Kelly with this issue because there's been a narrative that, hey, she could pick Kelly and maybe pick up Arizona. He could run defense for her on the border. Or are they criticizing him on this issue? Where does he stand in Arizona's minds?

So far?

I think Senator Kelly has actually done a very good job kind of staying out of the border controversy, if you will. I think part of it is having Democrats in the White House. A lot of the attention is focused on them. Senator Kelly happens to be the most popular politician in Arizona right now. So as Kamala Harris is taking a look at him, I definitely think he could be seen as an asset to her ticket.

Well, if she were to choose him as her vice presidential nominee, does that make Arizona borderline unwinnable for Trump?

Just how does that change the dynamics?

He still has a very very strong base in Arizona, especially in some of the rural areas and even in some of the exturban further away from Phoenix and Maricopa County. He still has a huge amount of support. So I expect Arizona to be very close. It'll be a battleground state, especially if she does pick center Kelly.

Well, he has such a strong base that he's made two endorsements in the same race. And I'm really confused on this Arizona's eighth congressional district. We thought Blake Masters had the Can you explain to me how you get two endorsements in the same race. So basically Donald Trump is saying, in the eighth congressional district, vote your conscience because both options are great.

So in twenty twenty two, he endorsed both men in separate races. Mister Hamiday in the Attorney general race and in Blake Masters in the US Senate race. He got in very early for Abe Homiday in this congressional district race. But Blake Masters hasn't taken his foot off the gas, not just touting his support of what he calls the America First agenda, but also really strongly trying to court Trump supporters and the former president in himself. And so over the weekend, Donald Trump did say, hey, I still think that that Abe Hammada is a great fighter for America First.

But also take a look at Blake Masters.

So it'll be very interesting as we as the we had towards seven o'clock in the polls close today.

Well, we should also consider that his vice presidential nominee JD Vance had came out and endorsed Blake Masters prior to this.

Peter Teal likes him as well.

We know of the Teal Vance relationship, so maybe want to consider those dynamics as well. So all that said, John, how do you think this goes down?

Who do you think comes out ahead?

Well, keep in mind in Arizona there's a huge number of Peal who voted early, and so probably about as many.

As two thirds of the vote to make it deffinitely.

So it may be a little bit late. I'm sure the Master's campaign wouldell you, boy, we really wish this could have come out, you know, a week, two weeks earlier.

It's still not over.

I just took a look at the numbers before we came on. About three thousand votes have been cast thus far on election day in the eighth Congressional district. So there's still you know, several thousand votes yet to be cast, but a lot of those votes were already in the bank prior to the endorsement.

This got really ugly and personal personal attacks some of the images that Blake Masters put out of Amiday. What happens a post election here and how damaged is the loser's reputation going to be.

So it's a safe district to whoever wins this primary will almost certainly be the next member of Congress in Arizona eight. But I think we ever finished a second, we'll have a lot of repair work to do. These are both very young men with very very strong political aspirations going forward. Only one of them is going to win, so yeah, there'll probably be some repair work that's needed, and it'll be interesting to see how that you know, what form that takes well.

And of course that's not the only race that bears watching today. There's also the Senate Republican primary, in which we've been really casting this race in the general as Carrie Lake versus Reuben gayego. That is what everybody's expectation is. But carry Lake still has to win this primary. By what margin does she need to win it?

Though? When it's considered her to be so much so the front runner.

I think most most folks like me are looking at about the sixty percent number that if she is under sixty that's probably a concern.

I expect her to eclipse it.

But there's a sizeable chunk of report Publicans who are still not fully comfortable with carry Lake. Many many more are enthusiastic supporters. So I think if you look at that sixty percent number, if she eclipses that number, I think that's a reasonable bar for her to She's Claire.

Twelve though here right, she's in a pretty good position going into the selection.

Is that right?

She's in the primary, she's strongly favored to win. Her opponent, Sheriff Mark Lamb very good guy, never really got any kind of momentum behind him, so I expect her to win comfortably.

That's one that should be called pretty people have.

Like what's the taste left in people's mouths in Arizona after that brutal governor's race, which she I think still claims was stolen.

Right, I think that Republicans never really left her again. The majority of Republicans were with her in the general in twenty twenty two, and whether or not they believe that she actually won that race, they've stuck with her. Remember, she was also a very popular newscaster for over twenty years in Arizona, so she has a strong following, and I expect generally, as we say people are going to put on their jersey's, Republicans are going to stick with her. Ruben Guiego is running a strong campaign but is a very very progressive member of Congress. So I expect at the end of the day, we'll be hearing about the border. We'll be hearing about inflation a lot more than we're hearing about whether or not Carrie Lake actually one in twenty twenty two.

In well, something we've been talking about much more widely in states other than Arizona, but certainly inclusive of Arizona as well. Is now that it's Kamala Harris who is going to be leading the Democratic ticket, what tail effects that may have down the ballot?

Do the odds look.

Better for Reuben Diego than they would have otherwise if it was still Joe Biden who was the Democratic nominee.

What I think you're seeing in Arizona and really in a lot of other swing states, there's just a lot more enthusiasm from Democrats more recently. I think some of that may be that this is still very new. It's just less than two weeks old since Kamala Harris became the de facto nominee. But I really think that you're seeing more enthusiasm, and while every vote still only counts the same, it does mean that these are people maybe more likely to go knock on doors, make phone calls, pounding yard science, things of that nature, and in a close race, every little bit like that makes a difference.

As a Republican, we were talking to you in Milwaukee about the pick of JD Evans. Do you care about who Kamala Harris picks for running me?

I think it's a big story for a few days. Somebody who is going to be an articulate kind of messenger for your vision as as a nominee, someone who maybe can be helpful in some of those swing states, someone who voters believe can actually do the job of president if God forbid, anything were to happen to the president. And so I think that's what she'll be looking at. Maybe marginal different if a Mark Kelly gets picked or a Governor Shapiro in Pennsylvania. But end of the day, I think most voters really look at who's at the top of the ticket.

He's the founding partner CEO at Echo Canyon Consulting, long time Republican strategist John Seaton with us here at the table. Great to pick your brain for a little while. John, thank you so much for joining us on Arizona primary.

Dano Less.

I guess we'll be picking through results around this time tomorrow.

Indeed, we will.

Hard to believe we're still in the middle of primary season, but I guess everything has been constantly changing in this entire electoral cycle and congressional races or no exception.

Well, we'll see if the Trump endorsed candidate wins or the Trump Lars candidate that will be the contest tonight.

Literally is going to make our way through this.

He basically get commend his record on endorsements either way race.

He's a winner either way. Amazingly, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines. It's the fastest show in Politics on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Will assemble our panel next, Rick Davis and Geenie Shanzano on the way with the latest on the campaign.

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As the ad wars begin, We've been waiting for this. We told you about the time that had been reserved. We also talked about the fact that the Comala Harris campaign needed to start making ads. They've had cameras following her at rallies. They're struggling to identify the candidate before Donald Trump can and look at this. Donald Trump today up with his first ad, the first twelve million dollar ad flight targeting Harris up in six swing states, describing her as failed, weak, and dangerously liberal.

Here's a taste.

This is America's borders are and she's failed US under Harris, over ten million illegally. Here a quarter of a million Americans dead from petrolar, brutal migrant crimes. Hears and isis now here.

Isis even invoked in this first ad. As we assembled our panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors. Gloves are off. I guess Rick Donald Trump said that he was not going to start playing nice because the media asked him to. Is this an effective ad to start things off?

Yeah.

I think it's sort of starting to frame her. He's picking his favorite topic immigration. I think that they want to make sure that she pays a price for the borders are. There's enough evidence within the Biden administration that this is something she had some responsibility for. You can quibble over how much, but the bottom line is he's going to make her pay. And you know, I think the tagline I don't understand this interview with Lester Holt where she made a mistake you know, and she resisted talking about going to the border and compared it to well, I hadn't been to Europe yet either.

I mean, like, oh my god, that was awful.

So yeah, I think this is a pretty classic negative ad with a decent little buy, not a big one, but certainly an effort to try and get her defined in these targeted swing states.

Interesting, Genie, I'd love your take on this, because there are some things we did not hear about.

There was no.

Reference to her as a DEI higher being, dumb as a rock, references to her ethnic background, or allegations that she covered up Joe Biden's age, all of which we have heard referenced from this campaign.

Is this effective?

You know?

I think the Trump campaign is still trying to find his footing on how to go how to go out against Kamala Harris. I mean, you even had people like Carl Rove over the weekend saying that he had taken he being Trump a subordinate position to Kamala Harris. And that's obviously not where Trump wants to be in no way to run a campaign. So this ad by is really their first attempt to try to define her. If you accept his rallies and his interviews even last night on Fox News where he did use some really difficult language against her in terms of her intellect and other things, which is truly unfortunate. But I think that the campaign itself is looking at people like Dave McCormick, who put that ad out first and saying she's vulnerable on these issues, stances she took during the twenty twenty primary where all Democrats except Joe Biden were running to the far left. Going to try to use the plentiful amount of video they have, and Rick just mentioned one of the clips against her, and yeah, that can be effective in the swing states. So the issue for Kamala Harris, and we know that they are doing this today, is they've got to get out there with their own big media ad byad, and they have to get out there defining her and of course going on the offensive against Trump. She's been doing that with earned media. They have to do that with paid media as well.

By the way, if you're listening to us on the radio, that ad opens while it's talking about failed, weak, dangerously liberal Kamala Harris with her dancing, it's video of her dancing at the event they held marking the fiftieth anniversary of hip hop Rick, what's going on in the basement at the Trump campaign with the young twenty somethings who have been tasked with sifting through years of tape to find videos like that to make ads about Kamala Harris.

Well, let's not kid ourselves.

They've already got a ream of that stuff that they've been working on all year. Even if Joe Biden we're still running for president, they'd be running ads like this. So it's not a huge departure from the regular But their oppo guys are really trying to pinpoint what the weaknesses are and they're going to do an issue by issue right and they're going to look at the economy. I would highly expect Trump to roll out a series of hit pieces on the economy. And this is the advantage the Trump campaign has. They don't have to run a single ad about Donald Trump. America has made up their mind about Donald Trump. They can put all their firepower, all their money, all their social against Vice President Harris. And Harris has a dual obligation. She has to introduce herself to the American public quickly, but she also has to contrast that with Donald Trump. And that's really the theme of her ad. And I would say a good start by her too. Four times the amount of money being spent to buy her to define herself, then by Donald Trump to define her so fascinating.

Here into Rick's point, We've got the two ads today, the new ad from Trump, yes, the new ad from Harris. And guess what they're both about. Kamala Harris. Here's the ad from the Harris campaign.

The one thing Kamala Harris has always been fearless. As a prosecutor, she put murderers and abusers behind bars. As California's Attorney general, she went after the big banks and won twenty billion dollars for homeowners, and as Vice president, she took on the big drug companies to cap the cost of insulin for seniors.

If you are again with us on Bloomberg Radio, that ad opens with an image video of Kamala Harris striding across the tarmac to Air Force one, with the sunrise behind the jet night and day. I might suggest, Genie, is it effective?

I do think it's a good ad.

It plays on what she has been talking about in the week she's been on the campaign trail. At the top of the ticket, which is her background as a prosecutor, taking on the big banks, taking on corporate America, protecting seniors, protecting people's ability to access healthcare. So I do think it's an important and a good ad to go out there with. And I would just add I think the Trump team is going to have to be very careful with some of these clips they're showing of Kamala Harris. The one of her dancing is one that the folks, the younger folks on social media quite like bitz gets back to how she has been dominating in that space in a way Donald Trump usually does. So they have to be careful not to put things out that actually play well for her in that social media space where she has had a good run of it for the last seven days.

All right, So Rick Jeanie is reminding us of the fact that she's around young people a lot at Ionia University, and she's right. I've got a teenager living in my house and I keep seeing dad looking. They hold up the phone and it's another Instagram video of Kamala Harris dancing, or it's a coconut tree or something like this. How do you run against that type of organic earned media.

Yeah.

Look, I think you have to play into it, right, I mean, if I were her, I'd put out a video clip on social comparing her dance moves to Donald Trump's. I mean, we've seen Donald Trump dancing a lot lately, and oh my god, would you rather have hip hop?

Or Yeah?

I don't know what that's called. So you know, look, I think she's got to have fun with it. I Mean, one of the things I'm impressed with is there a significant tone change from the sort of dour, siious, weighty Joe Biden message to the sort of hey, I'm having fun out here. This is going to be a great campaign. Happy Warrior came out of the last weekend, and that's called Kamala Harris. So my guess is that's gonna result in a lot of good social for the campaign to play with. And if that's their attitude, they should have fun with it.

Well.

Is it possible for Donald Trump to compete with that type of existence on social media? He's got his own social media company, Genie.

Yeah, he does.

Of course, not as many people are looking at that as are looking at x and Instagram and some of the others.

But yeah, I mean, I agree, she's got what is it? Riz? Is that what they call it?

And it's been out there and it's been effective with these young folks, so you know what, they got to plan that. And of course this offers up the opportunity for Democrats to talk about age for once in this campaign and to do it effectively against Donald Trump.

I'm surprised, actually we haven't heard more about that. You were going to need a glossary here on the show for somewhat older people. Do you want to define RIZ for everybody? Genie to go to Urban Dictionary here.

I'm gonna do it, and you correct me if I'm wrong.

No, you're gonna is that right?

Yeah?

I think I think that's a that's very effective. But define it in one word. As a matter of fact, Rick does Kamala Harris need to start turning the age issue into something real against Donald Trump.

By the way, thank you very much for not asking me about RIZ, because I would have said short for the Ritz. Carlton, I don't know, I'm but now we all know. Look, I think I think right now the biggest thing is going to happen in the campaign. They've they've got the bioad out for for Harris right now, that's going to go into these same targeted states. By the way, just to note the file, nobody's talking about expanding the map anymore. Do you notice where Donald Trump bought these huh adds? You know, his little twelve million dollars by all in the six targeted states. So we're not talking about Virginia anymore. We're not talking about New Hampshire anymore, We're not talking about Minnesota anymore. This is a different campaign, back to the future, and I think that the next big foot to drop is a week from now, Kamala Harris is going to launch a tour around these same targeted states with her VP running end of the convention in Chicago the week afterwards. So I think we're we're talking a lot about paid media today, but the earned media machine that is about to unfold is going to be the first time we've actually sent an effort toward earned media by Democrats.

Roy Cooper's taking his name out here, Genie. I don't know where you are in the veepstakes, but Bill Crystal was with us earlier this hour, and based on his view here and and the framing that people have given certain candidates. He's got his own three Buddha j Edge, Whitmer who says she doesn't want it in Shapiro. So this is all about Pennsylvania, now, right, That's that's really.

What it's looking like.

And I think that speaks to the fact what Rick was just talking about about the fact that these are these states and in some ways the race is just gotten back to where it was earlier on with a neck and neck race. I was struck by the fact that somebody said that the polls taken since Joe Biden dropped out, they now have an average of Donald Trump up by less than one percent. It's something like nine tenths of a percent. And that just tells you this thing is on a razor's edge. And so I think she does need to think about locking up one of these swing states, you know. So that really does make you look at a state like Pennsylvania that.

Said she isn't in Georgia today.

Who knows if she chose, you know, the governor of Minnesota, it might, you know, say something else.

But I do think that those three look the most likely.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Emo CarPlay and then Droudoto where the Bloomberg Business at Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite radio, and of course on YouTube, where you can find us live right now search Bloomberg Global News.

We'll meet you here in the studio.

Our live feed is running all day from Washington and from New York. And so here we go again with our eyes on the campaign trail. The headline on the terminal Harris expands push to compete with Trump in swing states. She's expanding the map, we're told as this honeymoon seems to only get sweeter. But she doesn't even have a running mate yet. And I do find it interesting that we're talking more about the deep steaks on both sides than we are the people at the top of the ticket. Kamala Harris will be in Georgia a little bit later. We're going to talk about that as we zero in on a campaign here through the eyes of someone who has a very different view than i'd say most longtime conservative Republicans that would be Bill Crystal, editor at large and co author of Morning Shots, the newsletter on the Bulwark, and director of Defending Democracy Together. You know him from the Weekly Standard. You listen to him for all those years on ABC this Week on Sunday Morning. And never Trumper, who maybe would describe, let's ask him, a party that has left him, not the other way around. Bill Crystal, Welcome, It's good to see you.

Good to see you.

Ja bring our audience up to date on where you're at right now because you're not supporting Trump. You're probably the most famous never Trumper who's going to walk into this studio. Are you supporting Kamala Harris?

I am. I would have supported Joe Biden. I supported Biden in twenty twenty. Yeah, I can't support Trump for various reasons and which a fair number of other people share with me, I think, and so I'm sort of on the right side of the Democratic Party. I suppose these days, ex Republican, we'll see what happens to the Democrats and how comfortable one feels there.

Maybe they'll be a third party.

But anyway, do you think of yourself as an ex Republican?

I do now, just because Trump is so thoroughly taken over the Republican Party. Yeah, in the first couple of years.

Joe, in twenty seventeen eighteen, I was sort of fighting within the Republican Party and I thought, maybe he'd become a four year thing. Right, Trump will be one term president. It's kind of an unfortunate parenthesis in the history of the party. And then we go back to something like what had been you know, not exactly of course, but something like it. But what became clear in twenty nineteen twenty was how powerfully was then January sixth happened. Yeah, I mean he was powerfully gotta be elected. He lost pretty close grace, and then January six happened. I thought, Okay, maybe now we get the liberation of the Republican Party from Trump. But for me, that was the decisive moment. A week later, all but ten House Republicans vote against impeaching him. After January second, a week later, then the Senate, only seven Republicans vote to impeach Dandy steamwrolls the rest of his opponents. In twenty twenty three, and it's Trump's party and that's not my party.

Well, that's that's where we start our conversation, and in a race that has been turned upside down. We were in Milwaukee just a couple of weeks ago for what was billed as a unity convention, only to leave with memories of Hulk Hogan and Dana White in our heads and trying to figure out what we're what we're running into here in Chicago. But this moment that we're in right now is historic. Two hundred million dollars in a week that the turn in favorable unfavorables. Have you ever seen anything like it?

It's pretty amazing, isn't it.

We had this very stable race, literally a replay of twenty twenty Biden and Trump that as has never happened in American politics, not.

To see eighteen eighty eighty eight, I think, or something like that.

And suddenly we're gonna have the current president running against the ex president. If you looked at the polls, you watched them closely over February March April May plus.

One percent, one percent, no change basically, and why would they be changed? Everyone do Biden? Everyone dow Trump? You're gonna change your mind over something new about them? Unlikely? Right, Suddenly, in a very unusual, really unprecedented.

I guess you'd have to say, right moment Biden has that horrible debate performance, people realize. And I was arguing this for a year and a half, so I will say on this one, I think I was right an unusual moment in American politics that he should not have run again. It was wise of him, sort of a responsible rely but anyway to get out after three weeks of one yelling at him to get out, and suddenly we have Harris as and then the quick coalescing behind Vice President Harris, and there she is, the nominee, didn't go through a single primary, but the consensus nominee of the.

Party, and a party that is very relieved.

I'm really struck by that when I talked to Democrats, so relieved to have the burden frankly of Joe Biden's age. And they love but they like Biden, and they respect Biden. They think he's been a good president. And I do too, incidentally, but he shouldn't have run again. And now he's not running again, so suddenly it's a new race with Harris.

It's a new race with Harris, and as I mentioned, it's been a lucrative turn for her certainly when it comes to polling as well. And we still have a lot to learn, I know, with a lot of posters in the field right now. But next comes the choice of a running mate. And I'm fascinated by some of what you've been writing on this, as you say you have an easier time as a vice presidential pick of political elites.

The media and voters are already.

Accustomed to thinking of you as among the limited group of people who could conceivably be and when you look at the so called shortlist, that makes it a lot shorter in your eyes.

Yeah, I mean you can make a case for taking someone who hasn't been on, that hasn't run already or been close to running already. But if you look at those, say successful vice presidential candidates politically successful in the campaign. Bush helped Reagan in nineteen eighty. I think Gore helped Clinton in nineteen ninety two. Biden probably helped Obama president Obama in two thousand and eight, you know, experience and so forth. Harris probably helped Biden in twenty They had all run for president, and I don't think that's an acces. I mean, fear that had run that year lost to the nominee and the other Gore had run four years before.

And I don't think that's an accident. I mean, the presidential stage is so much.

Bigger, so much tougher, frankly than running at the state level or running for a senate seed, often in a state that's kind of favorable to your party anyway, And I think those people were better vice presidential candidates, which they'd gone through the vetting, the media was familiar with them. Voters sort of thought, Okay, he lost or she lost for the president they've seen, but yeah, they've been on the on the big stage debates.

And presidential debates.

It's hard to take someone my former boss, Dan Quail, a good guy, unfairly well eyed. I will defend him, a good vice president. But still they picked him out of semi obscurity.

You'd say, but he was a senator.

He was not.

But he had no one and he hadn't been on the.

List of possible presidential candidates or real fesidential candidates, and suddenly they pick him out of that obscure semi obscurity and throw him in the spotlight. He makes one or two mistakes, but also the campaign made mistakes about him. They didn't know everything about him. Some issue from his past pops up. This is the risk of taking someone who's not well known. So in the Democratic side, Pete Pooter Judges run for president did a very good job doing so I think you got to put him on the short list. Some people who think it's too risky for take him for various reasons. And I do think Governor Shapiro and Whitmer have been prominent enough and talked about for president enough, and they would have run if Biden steps aside, I think a year ago.

So I get put them an interesting part of the calculus.

Yeah, and people familiar with them if they looked at their records. So I think they're sort of in.

That tier of boothag Edge Whitmer, Shapiro.

That's your threat for me.

I think that counts for a lot.

And then if you take those three and if you assume they don't want to do boodha jogh for various reasons, Yeah, I mean Shapiro being the governor, a very popular governor of v key swing state.

You need to put the sixty.

One percent approval rating pretty arts to make case against Shapiro's But you know, then there's the Governor, Wallace as a president and other people, Senator Kelly, and then there are little boomlets for all these people.

Does Senator Kelly bring any kind of a foil when it comes to the border. Could he defend her on the issue that appears to be the weakest for Kamala Harris?

Maybe, but I mean, she really has to defend herself on that.

And you mentioned at the beginning of the show the very important thing, the massive average wave of advertising from the Republicans counteracted. I was a little worried, honestly, as someone who's for Harris, that they wouldn't counteractive, but they seem to have enough money to go up against it. Now that initial defining advertising so important for kendidate who's not well known. We were saying before Biden and Trump, you weren't going to define them in some new way. Really, right, you can do undred million dollars of as you'd move them half a percentage point Harris. For all that she's been vice president for three and a half years, people don't have settled views on her. They have a vague sense of who she was it is, and so if the Republicans could succeed in defining her, you know, San Francisco Liberal Week on the Border, Week on crime. They could do to her, the Republicans what Republicans have done in the past to Mike Jucacus, to John Kerry, you know, with Obama did to Romdi.

To find the challenger early, but.

Early here is three weeks in July and August, because it's such a crazy situation where Harris just became the nominating Normally that happens, as you know what Mark J.

A fill May June, you.

Know, but defining the challenger, the less well known candidate, is so important, and the Harris people are up with a counter definition of it.

Oh, here's who Kamala Harris is tough prosecutor, Time for change, generational right.

So it'd be very interesting to see those ads are very important over the next week, week or two, much more than usual, I would say.

And I think the VP pick is important because it helps define her as well. Sure, definitely.

So we're on fast forward here and she doesn't have a lot of time to do it. To your point, in terms of the ad wars. By the way, it's really interesting what we have here because the Trump campaign's first twelve million dollar flight is up here, failed, weak, dangerously liberal. That's how they're characterizing Kamala Harris. To your point, Harris campaign's reserving fifty million dollars in ads, So we're about to get a barrage. I want to ask you though, about not the pre produced messaging, but what we're hearing on the stump. And I'll start with Kamala Harris because we've been through the DEI stuff and the dumb as a rock and some of the things that Donald Trump has been the insults he's lobbed her way, Democrats have settled on weird.

Listen to Kamala Harris on the campaign trail this week.

You may have noticed Donald Trump has been resorting to some wild lies about my record and some of what he and his running big are saying.

Well, it's just plain weird.

You put that in, you put it in the weird box. We're hearing weird from Tim Walls from others. That's apparently going to be the refrain.

Now.

I was asking if that's the new deplorable? So who are we insulting here?

Yeah, I think it's a little double edged. I think with vance.

So it's a good example centally picking someone who isn't known naturally, Yeah, right, If you're taking Tim Scott or even Bergham, they're not that well known, but they were in the presidential debates. I think voters would have been okay, fine, you know, normal VP pick you take Advances thirty nine years old, who wasn't in the presidential field at all. Suddenly you discover various clips of him saying things in the past, and they are kind of weird. So I think the weird thing works for Vance, making it the whole theme of your criticism of Trump and Advance I'm a little.

Do are you calling the voters weird?

Though?

Well, that's right. You gotta be careful.

You got to win over some x Trump voters, right, that's what Republican voters against Trump. This organization I'm involved in is done, and you don't want to insult them, and you want to say, look, we understand why you might have been unhappy with the Democrats for some reasons, but Trump, you shouldn't go for Trump. And incidentally, I think Harris has to introduced herself. I don't think they all know. Everyone knows Trump. Everyone hasn't offended about Trump. People are uncertain about, Well, what's up with Harris? Is she a California Liberal? Did you mess up on the border?

Is that an unfair attack? Is she twenty twenty?

She wasn't a great candidate twenty nineteen, she got out really before the votes were cast.

In twenty twenty, well, so what are you hearing from conservative circles, and I mean specifically national security conservative circles, people who are pro Ukraine, people who are worried about the stand that she might take on Israel. Is that what could hold her back from taking those persuadable potential Trump voters into her full.

I mean, you never know, right, I mean, I think Israel's complicated cross cutting. I would say Ukraine, on the other hand, is a huge advantage for her. The kind of people who are not so fond of Trump, ex Republicans or Conservatives.

Are very pro Ugrade. If it meant anything to be a.

Republican, to be a Bush McCain, Romney, Reagan Republican who was to support a democratic country fighting a brutal dictatorial invader next door and helping them with arms and not even with troops. So it's good and so I think she can use Ukraine to help bring a lot of people who served in the Reagan and Bush administrations on board, and a lot of voters who don't regret voting for Reagan and Bush and McCain and.

Say, you know what, Harris is closer to her to them on this fundamental issue.

And so if she can beat back the liberal stuff and be a little as Biden was, I'd say, centrist on foreign policy, kind of hawkish for a Democrat maybe, which I think she is, and then you know, prosecute the case against Trump in some obvious ways.

I think she has a pretty reasonable chance.

Well, we're talking about what you're hearing. There's still a conversation about JD. Vance and why we went there. And I know that Don Junior had a big influence. I guess Peter Tiel did or some others. But Donald Trump has made his choice. There seems to be a thought that he could go back on this, that there's enough buyer's remorse that we could be talking about a different ticket. Are you are you buying into that? Or is this silly season?

I mean I would normally say it's silly season, except everyone said the idea of Biden dropping off the ticket with silly season. So I guess if Biden could drop off the ticket on his side, Trump's looking at it and thinking, I don't know, they improve their chances by replacing Biden with Harris. Maybe I can reprove my chances by dumping Vance. I think it's unlikely. I don't think it's impossible. Trump has fired plenty of people in his presidency. Yeah, chiefs, the staff, the defense, secretary, of secretaries of State and so forth, and everyone said, oh, you shouldn't do that. It looks like you're admitting a mistake. And he correctly said, just fire them. I'll say it was someone gave me bad advice, and I'll you know, trash them a little bit, and then I'll have a new person and everyone will be fine, which is in fact what he got away with.

Right.

That's harder to do with a vice presidential nominee. But I don't think it's totally out of the question.

Wow, And I think it was a foolish pick.

I mean, they've now had a week really of negative publicity. Deserve I would say about Vance, and it's not.

Entirely going away.

And one reason why it's powerful, I think this isn't like a normal VP pick and something comes up that he did twenty years ago, you wrote a stupid piece at a college paper when you were twenty years old, or your incident it was.

It's in real time, right, this is who JD. Vance is.

He's thirty nine years old, and in the last few years he's got out of his way to embrace these views on women and on you know, social norms and so forth. So you can't sort of say, well, that was that and this is now. So I think it sticks with Vance a little more that would typically be the case.

Look no further than Thomas Eagleton, right, nineteen seventy two, George McGovern. It's happened in pretty recent history. That's not that long ago after you.

It was in eighteen days or eighteen days and they replaced him. Didn't really help McGovern. But yeah, no, it might not be a winning formula, but still the idea that, oh my god, it could never happen, that's not true.

Amazing, Bill Crystal. Will you stay in touch with us?

I would like to talk to you through this campaign.

I really appreciate you coming in.

You can find him at the Bulwark now that Bill Crystal at the table on Balance of Power. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.