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You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Proudo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Proudo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

We've been talking a lot, Joe about how the economy was looking pretty good and yet the incumbent administration wasn't getting credit for it. The question is are they going to get the credit now that it does seem that things are turning south.

We've been talking a lot, Joe about how the economy was looking pretty good and yet the incumbent administration wasn't getting credit for it. The question is are they going to get the credit now that it does seem that things are turning south.

Well, that's true certainly in terms of the markets and an economy that just seems to be slowing more quickly than anyone was talking about even just a couple of weeks ago here, and a big question about whether the Fed has missed an opportunity with now some folks calling for a rate cut before we even get to the meeting in September, and those looking to September are talking about fifty to twenty five at this point. Austin Goulesby spoke earlier to Michael McKee and Shannali Bossik as part of our coverage here on Bloomberg. He was really trying to tamp down the fear. You know, a single data point does not make a trend, and so forth the Fed's got to be concerned about this too.

Well, that's true certainly in terms of the markets and an economy that just seems to be slowing more quickly than anyone was talking about even just a couple of weeks ago here, and a big question about whether the Fed has missed an opportunity with now some folks calling for a rate cut before we even get to the meeting in September, and those looking to September are talking about fifty to twenty five at this point. Austin Goulesby spoke earlier to Michael McKee and Shannali Bossik as part of our coverage here on Bloomberg. He was really trying to tamp down the fear. You know, a single data point does not make a trend, and so forth the Fed's got to be concerned about this too.

Yeah, of course they will, presuming that they decide not to make any decisions on reetcuts until their next meeting, get another jobs report before then. But of course it wasn't just the figures today. You had weak manufacturing data. Yesterday you had initial jobless claims at levels that we hadn't seen in some time. So it collectively is what is causing markets to see a bit more of a picture of things, things deteriorating and perhaps in a way that the FED did not expect.

Yeah, of course they will, presuming that they decide not to make any decisions on reetcuts until their next meeting, get another jobs report before then. But of course it wasn't just the figures today. You had weak manufacturing data. Yesterday you had initial jobless claims at levels that we hadn't seen in some time. So it collectively is what is causing markets to see a bit more of a picture of things, things deteriorating and perhaps in a way that the FED did not expect.

And it's one of those days.

And it's one of those days.

We're here on the Political Show. We're spending a lot of time talking about the markets with a lot of crossover. Kamala Harris may not be tweeting at j Powell the way Donald Trump used to, or crowing about highs in the stock market, but there are huge implications here, and we want to start with Michael McKee, who, as I mentioned, did talk to Austin Goulesby a little bit earlier. Michael, this whole idea that the FED missed the opportunity. What is the conversation at the FOMC today.

We're here on the Political Show. We're spending a lot of time talking about the markets with a lot of crossover. Kamala Harris may not be tweeting at j Powell the way Donald Trump used to, or crowing about highs in the stock market, but there are huge implications here, and we want to start with Michael McKee, who, as I mentioned, did talk to Austin Goulesby a little bit earlier. Michael, this whole idea that the FED missed the opportunity. What is the conversation at the FOMC today.

Well, the first thing they will tell you is what they always say. We don't look at one data point and make a decision or a conclusion based on that. And so Austin Goulsby's reaction was, this was not a great report, but it is not a terrible terrible report, and overall, the economy still seems relatively strong. So let's see what we get going forward. And it is true that markets, their initial response to everything is basically to overreact, as people pile in on a momentum trade, and then you know, people start to pull back and think about what they have actually seen. And so I think the FED is expecting that as the weeks go on, we will see a little more calm unless for some reason jobless claims explode something like that, and then we'll get another payrolls report at the beginning of September before the next FED meeting, so they'll have an opportunity to see if this is a one off kind of situation or if this is a really bad trend.

Well, the first thing they will tell you is what they always say. We don't look at one data point and make a decision or a conclusion based on that. And so Austin Goulsby's reaction was, this was not a great report, but it is not a terrible terrible report, and overall, the economy still seems relatively strong. So let's see what we get going forward. And it is true that markets, their initial response to everything is basically to overreact, as people pile in on a momentum trade, and then you know, people start to pull back and think about what they have actually seen. And so I think the FED is expecting that as the weeks go on, we will see a little more calm unless for some reason jobless claims explode something like that, and then we'll get another payrolls report at the beginning of September before the next FED meeting, so they'll have an opportunity to see if this is a one off kind of situation or if this is a really bad trend.

Well, it's not just markets that are reacting though, Mike. It's not just traders here. It's also economists across Wall Street banks that are essentially revising their forecasts for FED cuts. You now JP Morgan and City calling for not just a fifty basis point cut in September, but November two, and potentially cutting in every meeting after that. How high is the bar for the FED not just to cut, but to cut by half a point?

Well, it's not just markets that are reacting though, Mike. It's not just traders here. It's also economists across Wall Street banks that are essentially revising their forecasts for FED cuts. You now JP Morgan and City calling for not just a fifty basis point cut in September, but November two, and potentially cutting in every meeting after that. How high is the bar for the FED not just to cut, but to cut by half a point?

Well, Fed officials would say it is quite a high bar. Jay Powell was asked about it at his news comforts on Wednesday, and he said, we're not even thinking about that right now. I think you would need several other data points besides this one that told the FED that the economy was really in trouble, and then they might do fifty. The reaction was interesting because we had even JP Morgan suggesting that maybe the FED wants to cut intermediate. So we've gone from a fairly strong economy in Jay Powell's view on Wednesday, to crisis and you know the Fed's going to take a breather before it adopts any crisis fighting activities.

Well, Fed officials would say it is quite a high bar. Jay Powell was asked about it at his news comforts on Wednesday, and he said, we're not even thinking about that right now. I think you would need several other data points besides this one that told the FED that the economy was really in trouble, and then they might do fifty. The reaction was interesting because we had even JP Morgan suggesting that maybe the FED wants to cut intermediate. So we've gone from a fairly strong economy in Jay Powell's view on Wednesday, to crisis and you know the Fed's going to take a breather before it adopts any crisis fighting activities.

All right, Bloomberg's Michael McKee, our international economics and Policy correspondent, thank you so much for walking us through how the FED is likely viewing this as it is abundantly clear how the market is viewing this today. Although it's not just about jobs day. We also had some pretty disappointing earnings from the likes of Intel that stock right now down twenty seven percent on the day. For more, let's bring in Jess Menton, who covers equities for us or she is a sceenior reporter here at Bloomberg, So Jess, obviously it's hard to kind of separate what's happening in tech with what's happening in the wider market. To what extent do we attribute this to micro and to macro.

All right, Bloomberg's Michael McKee, our international economics and Policy correspondent, thank you so much for walking us through how the FED is likely viewing this as it is abundantly clear how the market is viewing this today. Although it's not just about jobs day. We also had some pretty disappointing earnings from the likes of Intel that stock right now down twenty seven percent on the day. For more, let's bring in Jess Menton, who covers equities for us or she is a sceenior reporter here at Bloomberg, So Jess, obviously it's hard to kind of separate what's happening in tech with what's happening in the wider market. To what extent do we attribute this to micro and to macro.

Well, that's a great point, Kaylee, because obviously what we were just talking about here with Mike meet Key and especially the trend when it comes to data points like this, that's what traders always want to say. And actually going into the FED decision from FED chair to impound what he was going to signal on Wednesday, a lot of them were expecting a potentially sell the news type moment. We did get a huge rally that afternoon, but since then, of course a lot of people want to point to some of these data points like the manufacturing data yester and of course the jobs report this morning, but when you had a huge run in really specuative corners of the market, like the Russell two thousand, where everybody's been talking about, especially the last year, wanting to see this rally broaden out. But if you look at the Russell in particular, of course it's been cheap, especially on the valuation side for that, but because of the massive rally and the historic outperformance it had relative to large caps last month, it's not quite as cheap as it had been. So that was more of a trade than or longer term investment, just because the earnings out look still remains elusive. So now a lot of traders are turning more toward divid in type pain corners of the market that obviously will benefit more toward rate cuts. So even though some of the gains here for some of those dividen pairs gave up some steam this morning, if you look at the flows on a weekly basis, actually when it comes to utilities as well as real estate, they've been on a tear and they are going to benefit. And of course utilities obviously there's an aiplay element to that, but even beyond some of the power and sort of renewable side of that. If you think of gas utilities, water utilities, those are ones that are doing very well right now, and that's where a lot of the money is flowing.

Well, that's a great point, Kaylee, because obviously what we were just talking about here with Mike meet Key and especially the trend when it comes to data points like this, that's what traders always want to say. And actually going into the FED decision from FED chair to impound what he was going to signal on Wednesday, a lot of them were expecting a potentially sell the news type moment. We did get a huge rally that afternoon, but since then, of course a lot of people want to point to some of these data points like the manufacturing data yester and of course the jobs report this morning, but when you had a huge run in really specuative corners of the market, like the Russell two thousand, where everybody's been talking about, especially the last year, wanting to see this rally broaden out. But if you look at the Russell in particular, of course it's been cheap, especially on the valuation side for that, but because of the massive rally and the historic outperformance it had relative to large caps last month, it's not quite as cheap as it had been. So that was more of a trade than or longer term investment, just because the earnings out look still remains elusive. So now a lot of traders are turning more toward divid in type pain corners of the market that obviously will benefit more toward rate cuts. So even though some of the gains here for some of those dividen pairs gave up some steam this morning, if you look at the flows on a weekly basis, actually when it comes to utilities as well as real estate, they've been on a tear and they are going to benefit. And of course utilities obviously there's an aiplay element to that, but even beyond some of the power and sort of renewable side of that. If you think of gas utilities, water utilities, those are ones that are doing very well right now, and that's where a lot of the money is flowing.

No, I'm really glad that you brought up the IWM in this case, Jess. There have been so many people talking about a rotation over the past couple of weeks, and the Tom Leeves of the world have been piling money into small caps waiting for the moment that the Fed starts to cut. It's down three and a half percent again today on top of recent losses. Knowing that something like half the components of the index don't make money, is that trade actually over?

No, I'm really glad that you brought up the IWM in this case, Jess. There have been so many people talking about a rotation over the past couple of weeks, and the Tom Leeves of the world have been piling money into small caps waiting for the moment that the Fed starts to cut. It's down three and a half percent again today on top of recent losses. Knowing that something like half the components of the index don't make money, is that trade actually over?

That's right, because a lot of that comes down to the amount of zombie companies that are in the wrestled two thousand. It's a little bit different if you look at the S and P six hundred that obviously holds small cap companies. Those tend to generate better earnings growth. But our own A Gmagena Martin Adams follows as well as Mike Casper. Obviously, this cap story very closely here, and a lot of that has to do with the revenue outlook moving forward and especially not just large cap in the midst of earning seasons, but also small caps as well. But the issue there is when you have companies like super Micro that were formally small cap stocks that get very big as well as micro Strategy, and they graduate from that index and move over to other indexes like in the Russell one thousand, that makes it harder for the earnings outlook overall for that particular index to improve there. So that's where the side of the equation because it's gotten more expensive now. So really it's down to whether or not they deliver on the profit as well as the revenue outlook.

That's right, because a lot of that comes down to the amount of zombie companies that are in the wrestled two thousand. It's a little bit different if you look at the S and P six hundred that obviously holds small cap companies. Those tend to generate better earnings growth. But our own A Gmagena Martin Adams follows as well as Mike Casper. Obviously, this cap story very closely here, and a lot of that has to do with the revenue outlook moving forward and especially not just large cap in the midst of earning seasons, but also small caps as well. But the issue there is when you have companies like super Micro that were formally small cap stocks that get very big as well as micro Strategy, and they graduate from that index and move over to other indexes like in the Russell one thousand, that makes it harder for the earnings outlook overall for that particular index to improve there. So that's where the side of the equation because it's gotten more expensive now. So really it's down to whether or not they deliver on the profit as well as the revenue outlook.

We'll keep eyes on it with your help, Jessment, and we do appreciate it. Bloomberg Senior Equities reporter with us on a tough day here on Wall Street. This job's day that we'll keep talking about throughout the hour here along with politics, a big crossover here, Kaylee lions when we consider the future prospects of Democrats, namely Kamala Harris right now trying to jet up a campaign with a huge influx of cash, but a messaging problem when it comes to the biggest story, the biggest issue on the campaign trail. That's inflation and the economy. Now the question of the FED miss the mark.

We'll keep eyes on it with your help, Jessment, and we do appreciate it. Bloomberg Senior Equities reporter with us on a tough day here on Wall Street. This job's day that we'll keep talking about throughout the hour here along with politics, a big crossover here, Kaylee lions when we consider the future prospects of Democrats, namely Kamala Harris right now trying to jet up a campaign with a huge influx of cash, but a messaging problem when it comes to the biggest story, the biggest issue on the campaign trail. That's inflation and the economy. Now the question of the FED miss the mark.

Yeah, absolutely, And of course we're likely to hear a lot about this from the Trump campaign in regard to not just the economy, but the way in which he would like to address it. What we've heard consistently from the former president is this idea that deregulation is going to be one of the ways that he tries to bring prices down and help bolster the economy. And it's regulators that we know have gotten a lot of scrutiny from Republicans in general under this administration.

Yeah, absolutely, And of course we're likely to hear a lot about this from the Trump campaign in regard to not just the economy, but the way in which he would like to address it. What we've heard consistently from the former president is this idea that deregulation is going to be one of the ways that he tries to bring prices down and help bolster the economy. And it's regulators that we know have gotten a lot of scrutiny from Republicans in general under this administration.

We consider the I on the consumer. We turn to the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and a conversation that we've been looking forward to bringing you here on Bloomberg. Rohi Chopra is with us from world headquarters in New York. Director Choprah, it's great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. You've been an awfully busy man recently putting forth new rules that apply regulations to credit card late fees, buy now, pay later, getting in advance on your paycheck, even large asset managers. What's your priority this summer?

We consider the I on the consumer. We turn to the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and a conversation that we've been looking forward to bringing you here on Bloomberg. Rohi Chopra is with us from world headquarters in New York. Director Choprah, it's great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. You've been an awfully busy man recently putting forth new rules that apply regulations to credit card late fees, buy now, pay later, getting in advance on your paycheck, even large asset managers. What's your priority this summer?

Well, one of the things that we're always going to be focused on is trying to lower some of the prices, including corporate gouging by some of these companies. We're seeing how firms, including big credit card companies, exploiting old regulatory loopholes, even dating back decades, and we're putting a stop to a lot of it. It's going to save households a lot of money. We hear all the time from special interests that there's going to be consequences that are harmful. It's not going to bear out, because this is really about making sure the laws being followed and consumers are being treated fairly.

Well, one of the things that we're always going to be focused on is trying to lower some of the prices, including corporate gouging by some of these companies. We're seeing how firms, including big credit card companies, exploiting old regulatory loopholes, even dating back decades, and we're putting a stop to a lot of it. It's going to save households a lot of money. We hear all the time from special interests that there's going to be consequences that are harmful. It's not going to bear out, because this is really about making sure the laws being followed and consumers are being treated fairly.

Well, of course, it doesn't really stop there.

Well, of course, it doesn't really stop there.

When we look at your agenda and the rules you've been passing. Recently, you also made some proposed tweaks to the change in Bank Control Act. Could you just clarify as you're looking at these larger asset managers what this change actually is going to mean in reality for the likes of Blackrock or other giants out there.

When we look at your agenda and the rules you've been passing. Recently, you also made some proposed tweaks to the change in Bank Control Act. Could you just clarify as you're looking at these larger asset managers what this change actually is going to mean in reality for the likes of Blackrock or other giants out there.

Well, there's been a real rethinking when it comes to mergers and merger review. I used to serve as a commissioner on the FTC and the Status Quo five years ago was just to be a rubber stamp, but we're now seeing much more rigorous merger review across sectors, and when it comes to banks, that's no different. We're looking much harder at all sorts of bank acquisitions to make sure that it's not reducing competition, that consumers can get good rates no matter where they go. Now you ask specifically about Blackrock and other big asset managers, we're really starting to scrutinize whether these companies are truly being passive part of the way they can have avoided scrutiny of their acquisitions, As they say, we're not doing this to take control like a normal merger or normal acquisition. We're just to passive investor. But we want to make sure that they're truly being passive and not the ones calling the shots.

Well, there's been a real rethinking when it comes to mergers and merger review. I used to serve as a commissioner on the FTC and the Status Quo five years ago was just to be a rubber stamp, but we're now seeing much more rigorous merger review across sectors, and when it comes to banks, that's no different. We're looking much harder at all sorts of bank acquisitions to make sure that it's not reducing competition, that consumers can get good rates no matter where they go. Now you ask specifically about Blackrock and other big asset managers, we're really starting to scrutinize whether these companies are truly being passive part of the way they can have avoided scrutiny of their acquisitions, As they say, we're not doing this to take control like a normal merger or normal acquisition. We're just to passive investor. But we want to make sure that they're truly being passive and not the ones calling the shots.

I want to ask you about buy now, pay later, which has been such a massive trend in companies like a firm have been rewarded for it on Wall Street. Your new rules are somewhat interpretive here, and some consumer groups, even some banks, have asked you to strengthen these rules to go a bit further to mandate a borrowers' ability to repay for instance, and even bring firms like the one I mentioned under your direct supervision. Is that something that should happen well.

I want to ask you about buy now, pay later, which has been such a massive trend in companies like a firm have been rewarded for it on Wall Street. Your new rules are somewhat interpretive here, and some consumer groups, even some banks, have asked you to strengthen these rules to go a bit further to mandate a borrowers' ability to repay for instance, and even bring firms like the one I mentioned under your direct supervision. Is that something that should happen well.

By now pay later got big during the pandemic. It grew about tenfold from twenty twenty nineteen to twenty twenty one, and we're seeing it as an option in almost every single online checkout. But you know, buy now, Pay later has to be treating people. They have to be upfront with all the key terms. So we're making it very clear that no matter what you call yourself, you have to make sure you follow the laws that apply to credit. We think there are tens of billions of dollars of transactions that buy now, pay later consumers are really on the hook for so I do think we're going to have to keep scrutinizing these firms. But at the end of the day, we want it to be an option for people that they can compare side by side, and we want these companies to compete on service and price and not exploit regulatory loopholes.

By now pay later got big during the pandemic. It grew about tenfold from twenty twenty nineteen to twenty twenty one, and we're seeing it as an option in almost every single online checkout. But you know, buy now, Pay later has to be treating people. They have to be upfront with all the key terms. So we're making it very clear that no matter what you call yourself, you have to make sure you follow the laws that apply to credit. We think there are tens of billions of dollars of transactions that buy now, pay later consumers are really on the hook for so I do think we're going to have to keep scrutinizing these firms. But at the end of the day, we want it to be an option for people that they can compare side by side, and we want these companies to compete on service and price and not exploit regulatory loopholes.

Well, sir, of course, when we consider buy now, Pay Later, it plays into this entire notion of the fact that consumers are piling up on debt more now that all those pandemic air savings have been depleted, and especially in light of data that we're seeing, including what we got a softer jobs report today, are you worried for your perch looking at consumer and their consumers and their financial health, that real cracks are starting to emerge, that we could start to see more delinquencies. Now, what are you bracing for?

Well, sir, of course, when we consider buy now, Pay Later, it plays into this entire notion of the fact that consumers are piling up on debt more now that all those pandemic air savings have been depleted, and especially in light of data that we're seeing, including what we got a softer jobs report today, are you worried for your perch looking at consumer and their consumers and their financial health, that real cracks are starting to emerge, that we could start to see more delinquencies. Now, what are you bracing for?

It's really interesting of two years ago, we really thought those delinquencies were going to accelerate much more quickly, and in fact we have returned to normal in some places. I do see some worries, some signs in subprime auto, in parts of the credit card market, but we're going to be fixated to look at where that debt is and how it's performing. I do worry that some of the credit card interest rates that people are paying are just so much higher than they were paying before, and that's not just due to changes in monetary policy. Credit card issuers have pumped up the margins that they've been charging now and Americans are paying about one hundred and five billion dollars just in interest, and often that interest can really put them on a treadmill. So we are looking hard at credit cards, at auto loans, and of course mortgages. So far, we see a little bit of stress and we want to make sure we're taking the right steps that it doesn't spread. And I will just share there's just no question that the higher rate environment has really hit American households on all types of things, of course mortgages being the biggest, but credit cards and auto loans really hitting people's pockets.

It's really interesting of two years ago, we really thought those delinquencies were going to accelerate much more quickly, and in fact we have returned to normal in some places. I do see some worries, some signs in subprime auto, in parts of the credit card market, but we're going to be fixated to look at where that debt is and how it's performing. I do worry that some of the credit card interest rates that people are paying are just so much higher than they were paying before, and that's not just due to changes in monetary policy. Credit card issuers have pumped up the margins that they've been charging now and Americans are paying about one hundred and five billion dollars just in interest, and often that interest can really put them on a treadmill. So we are looking hard at credit cards, at auto loans, and of course mortgages. So far, we see a little bit of stress and we want to make sure we're taking the right steps that it doesn't spread. And I will just share there's just no question that the higher rate environment has really hit American households on all types of things, of course mortgages being the biggest, but credit cards and auto loans really hitting people's pockets.

I want to ask you in our remaining moment or so ro hit about funding. Now that the Supreme Court has validated the bureau's funding structure, I wonder if you feel more confident moving forward with rulemaking and what would happen if Donald Trump was elected president.

I want to ask you in our remaining moment or so ro hit about funding. Now that the Supreme Court has validated the bureau's funding structure, I wonder if you feel more confident moving forward with rulemaking and what would happen if Donald Trump was elected president.

Well, you know, we did prevail in the Supreme Court in a decision authored by Clarence Thomas that made totally clear that our funding is lead go. I really think the banking industry has benefited from the CFPB. We really have taken out a lot of scammers and fraudsters and really focused on some of the pain points for consumers that they're facing. So, you know, I don't like to predict about what will happen in the future, but well here's what I will say. The work that we've been doing to take on some of these junk fee abuses, to let people switch their banking products and credit cards more easily, to embrace how new technology can open up new opportunities. That's only controversial in Washington everywhere else. That's what they want to see their government do is look to the future and help people protect their finances so that they can build their future.

Well, you know, we did prevail in the Supreme Court in a decision authored by Clarence Thomas that made totally clear that our funding is lead go. I really think the banking industry has benefited from the CFPB. We really have taken out a lot of scammers and fraudsters and really focused on some of the pain points for consumers that they're facing. So, you know, I don't like to predict about what will happen in the future, but well here's what I will say. The work that we've been doing to take on some of these junk fee abuses, to let people switch their banking products and credit cards more easily, to embrace how new technology can open up new opportunities. That's only controversial in Washington everywhere else. That's what they want to see their government do is look to the future and help people protect their finances so that they can build their future.

All right, Director Tropra, we appreciate you joining us here on Balance of Power. Thank you so much for your time, sir, That, of course is row hit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, joining us today from New York. I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington. Will have much more still ahead on today's week jobs report, in the Potential political Ramifications, our signature political panel, Rick and Genie are next. On Bloomberg TV and radio.

All right, Director Tropra, we appreciate you joining us here on Balance of Power. Thank you so much for your time, sir, That, of course is row hit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, joining us today from New York. I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington. Will have much more still ahead on today's week jobs report, in the Potential political Ramifications, our signature political panel, Rick and Genie are next. On Bloomberg TV and radio.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and Enroid Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and Enroid Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

Thirty alongside Kaylee Lines. In Washington, where we turn our attention back to the campaign trail. All this economic news and the direction of the markets resonating along with the idea of a debate. We still don't even have a running mate here, and the back and forth between the Kamala Harris campaign and the Donald Trump campaign has been pretty rich. We just got a statement, in fact from the Harris for President camp, from co chair Cedric Richmond. Donald Trump needs to man up, he writes. Since he talks the talk, he should walk the walk. And, as Vice President Harris said earlier this week, say to her face September tenth, she'll be there waiting to see if he'll show up, injecting now the prospect of an empty share debate. This statement follows something Donald Trump said this morning to Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business.

Thirty alongside Kaylee Lines. In Washington, where we turn our attention back to the campaign trail. All this economic news and the direction of the markets resonating along with the idea of a debate. We still don't even have a running mate here, and the back and forth between the Kamala Harris campaign and the Donald Trump campaign has been pretty rich. We just got a statement, in fact from the Harris for President camp, from co chair Cedric Richmond. Donald Trump needs to man up, he writes. Since he talks the talk, he should walk the walk. And, as Vice President Harris said earlier this week, say to her face September tenth, she'll be there waiting to see if he'll show up, injecting now the prospect of an empty share debate. This statement follows something Donald Trump said this morning to Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business.

Let's listen.

Let's listen.

Are you going to debate her?

Are you going to debate her?

Well?

Well?

I want to.

I want to.

I will.

I will.

Leading in the polls, it seems by quite a bit.

Leading in the polls, it seems by quite a bit.

Still, she's better than he is, but I think ultimately she'll be worse than him.

Still, she's better than he is, but I think ultimately she'll be worse than him.

She's more radical than him.

She's more radical than him.

All right, So let's get into this now with our signature political panel on this Friday, Joe Jeanie Shanzo, Senior Democracy Fellow with the Center of the Study of the Presidency in Congress and Rick Davis Stonecourt, Capital Partner.

All right, So let's get into this now with our signature political panel on this Friday, Joe Jeanie Shanzo, Senior Democracy Fellow with the Center of the Study of the Presidency in Congress and Rick Davis Stonecourt, Capital Partner.

Always a great to see you too.

Always a great to see you too.

On a Friday as we look ahead to September tenth and wonder if we're going to see anything at all that night. Jeanie, do you really think this depends on the polls?

On a Friday as we look ahead to September tenth and wonder if we're going to see anything at all that night. Jeanie, do you really think this depends on the polls?

It should depend on the polls, And if you're looking at the polls, they are neck and neck, whether they are national or in the swing states. We've seen and even in the Bloomberg Pole where the trajectory is much more positive for Kamala Harris than it was for Joe Biden. So if you're going to go buy what Donald Trump said, he should be out there to debate her on September tenth, And I hope he is. I think the fact is that his campaign advisors are telling him he only is going to lose by debating her, so he's trying to come up with some excuse to avoid that. But in the end, Kaylee, I hope we see it because it's going to be must watch TV.

It should depend on the polls, And if you're looking at the polls, they are neck and neck, whether they are national or in the swing states. We've seen and even in the Bloomberg Pole where the trajectory is much more positive for Kamala Harris than it was for Joe Biden. So if you're going to go buy what Donald Trump said, he should be out there to debate her on September tenth, And I hope he is. I think the fact is that his campaign advisors are telling him he only is going to lose by debating her, so he's trying to come up with some excuse to avoid that. But in the end, Kaylee, I hope we see it because it's going to be must watch TV.

Well, that's for sure.

Well, that's for sure.

Rick.

Rick.

What's your take on this, because I know that you wouldn't put Donald Trump in the ring with Kamala Harris. But if he's not leading on the polls, won't he have to.

What's your take on this, because I know that you wouldn't put Donald Trump in the ring with Kamala Harris. But if he's not leading on the polls, won't he have to.

Yeah, just to take a step back, I think every presidential candidate, the nominee of the two major parties, has an obligation to the public to debate.

Yeah, just to take a step back, I think every presidential candidate, the nominee of the two major parties, has an obligation to the public to debate.

Right.

Right.

This is not just about who's ahead and who's behind. I mean, those are technical consequences of saying yes or no to a debate request, but there's an overriding public interest here. The public should be able to see Donald Trump in action and Kamala Harrison action and make judgments based on that, and they should be after they've been nominees, not before, and it should be a part of the fall election. That is our tradition as a democracy. And so that's saying I don't think there's going to be a debate because I don't think it's in Donald Trump's interest. I think he probably is concerned with his ability to debate head to head Kamala Harris, and I'm pretty confident that he's not going to believe that that debate's going resulting and uplifting the polls, if anything, maybe downlift down draft And why take the risk in September October. Look, remember, he's going to say he won no matter what the outcome is, So why do anything that gets in the way of you know, his narrative about he's already won this election.

This is not just about who's ahead and who's behind. I mean, those are technical consequences of saying yes or no to a debate request, but there's an overriding public interest here. The public should be able to see Donald Trump in action and Kamala Harrison action and make judgments based on that, and they should be after they've been nominees, not before, and it should be a part of the fall election. That is our tradition as a democracy. And so that's saying I don't think there's going to be a debate because I don't think it's in Donald Trump's interest. I think he probably is concerned with his ability to debate head to head Kamala Harris, and I'm pretty confident that he's not going to believe that that debate's going resulting and uplifting the polls, if anything, maybe downlift down draft And why take the risk in September October. Look, remember, he's going to say he won no matter what the outcome is, So why do anything that gets in the way of you know, his narrative about he's already won this election.

Does what applies to Donald Trump brick also apply to his vice presidential nominee JD.

Does what applies to Donald Trump brick also apply to his vice presidential nominee JD.

Vance.

Vance.

Do you expect we'll see Vance on a stage with whoever Kamala Harris decides is going to be her running mate in the next few days.

Do you expect we'll see Vance on a stage with whoever Kamala Harris decides is going to be her running mate in the next few days.

I doubt it. I think that what's good for the goose is good for the gander. And in this case, my guess is that because we don't have a Commission on Debate sponsoring these debates, I've already rejected their participation. Then it would be up to the two campaigns to formulate a strategy around trying to put a debate together. And you know, in this case, I can't imagine Donald Trump wouldn't understand that if the VP debate, there's going to be immense pressure on him to do the same, and so he'd only be hurting his own prospects if he's trying to avoid a debate by letting the Lightning Advanced.

I doubt it. I think that what's good for the goose is good for the gander. And in this case, my guess is that because we don't have a Commission on Debate sponsoring these debates, I've already rejected their participation. Then it would be up to the two campaigns to formulate a strategy around trying to put a debate together. And you know, in this case, I can't imagine Donald Trump wouldn't understand that if the VP debate, there's going to be immense pressure on him to do the same, and so he'd only be hurting his own prospects if he's trying to avoid a debate by letting the Lightning Advanced.

Debate the debate is not all Donald Trump has been talking about in the last twenty four hours. Yesterday we were describing him doubling down on his questioning of Kamala Harris's racial identity. Today he is tripling down, I guess, is the only way to put it. Posting a photo on truth Social of Kamala Harris dressed in a sary with a caption saying, your warmth, friendship, and love of your Indian heritage are very much appreciated unquote. Also reposting stuff from Laura Lumer with copies of Kamala Harris's birth certificate. This is starting to sound familiar, spreading accusations as well that Kamala Harris lied about her race. We were all commenting on a X post from Simon Biles saw Jeanie after winning her ninth Olympic medal. Quote, I love my black job with a black heart. Where is this whole thing going? How do you go beyond the tripling down on this strategy for Donald Trump?

Debate the debate is not all Donald Trump has been talking about in the last twenty four hours. Yesterday we were describing him doubling down on his questioning of Kamala Harris's racial identity. Today he is tripling down, I guess, is the only way to put it. Posting a photo on truth Social of Kamala Harris dressed in a sary with a caption saying, your warmth, friendship, and love of your Indian heritage are very much appreciated unquote. Also reposting stuff from Laura Lumer with copies of Kamala Harris's birth certificate. This is starting to sound familiar, spreading accusations as well that Kamala Harris lied about her race. We were all commenting on a X post from Simon Biles saw Jeanie after winning her ninth Olympic medal. Quote, I love my black job with a black heart. Where is this whole thing going? How do you go beyond the tripling down on this strategy for Donald Trump?

Yeah?

Yeah?

First of all, what a night for Simon Biles. That was just amazing to watch, So proud of her, you know it was, I loved it. So the you know, the the reality as we are back to the future with Donald Trump. And it's unfortunate for Republicans because if you're looking at a strategy to take on Kamala Harris in a serious way, this repeat of the birtherism dressed as something else is not the way to do it. What is Bloomberg talking about today? They are talking about these numbers and the impact on the market. You've seen people like Jason Smith, You've seen people like Rick Scott try to tie this to Kamala Harris. I don't happen to agree, but wouldn't those kinds of policy approaches be much more effective for Donald Trump? And instead he goes back to his quite frankly racist tropes and who seems to be frightened of taking on a woman on the debate stage again. And so here we go again. And so I think it's unfortunate for Republicans, quite frankly, who are going to have to go through this, but we have to face it. He's what he set out to do, which is to gain a lot of free media attention on the back of this.

First of all, what a night for Simon Biles. That was just amazing to watch, So proud of her, you know it was, I loved it. So the you know, the the reality as we are back to the future with Donald Trump. And it's unfortunate for Republicans because if you're looking at a strategy to take on Kamala Harris in a serious way, this repeat of the birtherism dressed as something else is not the way to do it. What is Bloomberg talking about today? They are talking about these numbers and the impact on the market. You've seen people like Jason Smith, You've seen people like Rick Scott try to tie this to Kamala Harris. I don't happen to agree, but wouldn't those kinds of policy approaches be much more effective for Donald Trump? And instead he goes back to his quite frankly racist tropes and who seems to be frightened of taking on a woman on the debate stage again. And so here we go again. And so I think it's unfortunate for Republicans, quite frankly, who are going to have to go through this, but we have to face it. He's what he set out to do, which is to gain a lot of free media attention on the back of this.

Well, certainly attention is being paid.

Well, certainly attention is being paid.

Now.

Now.

Speaking of media attention, some media breaking news for you. Headlines just crossing the Bloomberg terminal that Kamala Harris has enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination. This, of course, is the DNC had their virtual role call underway. They were close voting on her nomination on Monday, the DNC chair Jamie Harrison saying he's proud to confirm that Harris earned more than a majority of votes from all conventions delegates and will be the nominee following that close of voting. Now, of course we're looking to Monday to figure out when she may make a vice presidential pick.

Speaking of media attention, some media breaking news for you. Headlines just crossing the Bloomberg terminal that Kamala Harris has enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination. This, of course, is the DNC had their virtual role call underway. They were close voting on her nomination on Monday, the DNC chair Jamie Harrison saying he's proud to confirm that Harris earned more than a majority of votes from all conventions delegates and will be the nominee following that close of voting. Now, of course we're looking to Monday to figure out when she may make a vice presidential pick.

Genie.

Genie.

But there's also things swirling about a potential cabinet, including a Washington Post op ed today in which Jamie Diamond, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase, makes the case for someone from the private sector getting a cabinet seat. He writes, in part quote, the private sector is huge, wells of expertise and produces eighty five percent of our nation's jobs.

But there's also things swirling about a potential cabinet, including a Washington Post op ed today in which Jamie Diamond, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase, makes the case for someone from the private sector getting a cabinet seat. He writes, in part quote, the private sector is huge, wells of expertise and produces eighty five percent of our nation's jobs.

It should have a seat at the table. What do you think about that, Genie?

It should have a seat at the table. What do you think about that, Genie?

I am so glad he wrote this piece. I think the idea that we need to restore faith in America is something we can all get behind. I think there's a lot of questions about how best to do that. I think it is really important to consider having representation from the private sector in the government and in the cabinet. So I think that makes good sense. I of course have my own view of what we need to do, which I'm happy to talk to mister Diamond about, which is restructuring. But I do think diversity in the cabinet by way of background and talent is critically important. I don't think we can forget We've had that in the recent past, and we've had that historically. I don't know if it's enough, but it may be a good first step.

I am so glad he wrote this piece. I think the idea that we need to restore faith in America is something we can all get behind. I think there's a lot of questions about how best to do that. I think it is really important to consider having representation from the private sector in the government and in the cabinet. So I think that makes good sense. I of course have my own view of what we need to do, which I'm happy to talk to mister Diamond about, which is restructuring. But I do think diversity in the cabinet by way of background and talent is critically important. I don't think we can forget We've had that in the recent past, and we've had that historically. I don't know if it's enough, but it may be a good first step.

Presidents may invite executives over to the White House for counsel rick, but they're not going to allow private sector at the table in the cabinet, are they.

Presidents may invite executives over to the White House for counsel rick, but they're not going to allow private sector at the table in the cabinet, are they.

Sure?

Sure?

Yeah, there's a strong tradition of private sector individuals serving and cabinets high level posts throughout any administration, and.

Yeah, there's a strong tradition of private sector individuals serving and cabinets high level posts throughout any administration, and.

I think about representing the private sector, you know, it's it's.

I think about representing the private sector, you know, it's it's.

It would be an interesting twist. It is basically what the Secretary of Commerce is charged to do, right, is to promote and represent the business interests, both domestically and abroad. So they're they're there are a lot of components to that right. Obviously, our trade negotiators do the same thing on trade issues, so there is already a pretty significant focus by the federal government in the private sector lives of business community. But at the end of the day, the real question, I think is not whether or not their views are held, or whether or not the approach to government is going to be heavy regulation or lighter regulation. That is one of the fundamental differences between potentially a President Harris and a President Trump. And I think, you know, if we could get back to talking about the issues in this campaign, those would be the kinds of things I think that could draw a lot of voters to one side or the other.

It would be an interesting twist. It is basically what the Secretary of Commerce is charged to do, right, is to promote and represent the business interests, both domestically and abroad. So they're they're there are a lot of components to that right. Obviously, our trade negotiators do the same thing on trade issues, so there is already a pretty significant focus by the federal government in the private sector lives of business community. But at the end of the day, the real question, I think is not whether or not their views are held, or whether or not the approach to government is going to be heavy regulation or lighter regulation. That is one of the fundamental differences between potentially a President Harris and a President Trump. And I think, you know, if we could get back to talking about the issues in this campaign, those would be the kinds of things I think that could draw a lot of voters to one side or the other.

Rick Davis and Genie Shanzena will be back with us in the late edition of Balance of Power that starts at five pm Washington Time. Any thanks to both of you.

Rick Davis and Genie Shanzena will be back with us in the late edition of Balance of Power that starts at five pm Washington Time. Any thanks to both of you.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast live weekdays at noon Eastern on Emo CarPlay and then Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast live weekdays at noon Eastern on Emo CarPlay and then Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

We are trying to see some positive spin on this coming from the Biden administration, at least from the Acting Secretary of Labor Julie Sue, who was here on Bloomberg TV and Radio earlier today and had this to say about the softer print.

We are trying to see some positive spin on this coming from the Biden administration, at least from the Acting Secretary of Labor Julie Sue, who was here on Bloomberg TV and Radio earlier today and had this to say about the softer print.

We'll continue.

We'll continue.

You know that there's continued work left to do to make sure that we maintain a strong economy. But we're still at a three month average of above the number that President Biden said a year ago we need to be to have a sustainable, strong labor market in a strong economy.

You know that there's continued work left to do to make sure that we maintain a strong economy. But we're still at a three month average of above the number that President Biden said a year ago we need to be to have a sustainable, strong labor market in a strong economy.

Let's get the word from Bloomberg Economics, where Anna Wong is the chief US economist. Anna, it's good to see you on this job's day. I've been asking you indicator after indicator after data point, is this the soft landing?

Let's get the word from Bloomberg Economics, where Anna Wong is the chief US economist. Anna, it's good to see you on this job's day. I've been asking you indicator after indicator after data point, is this the soft landing?

I have to ask you now, is this the hard landing?

I have to ask you now, is this the hard landing?

I think it's looking like that way. So you have seen the narratives of soft lending completely appended by all the data this week, and a lot of people, a lot of economists who had previously that that seft lending was shoeing, is now sounding quite panicky. So I think this is our view, is that the saw rule or whatever recession rules had long other recession rules have long been triggered. I think the non linear point in the labor market and the unemployment where things should go sharply deteriorate thereafter that point has already passed. The Fed has an opportunity to cut in July, but they didn't take it, and even doing so, they probably were late. But now they're definitely late. And this is the reason why market pricings are dramatic for dramatic fifty BIPs rate cut in September. And there's even some options now pricing for an inter meeting period cut before the September meeting.

I think it's looking like that way. So you have seen the narratives of soft lending completely appended by all the data this week, and a lot of people, a lot of economists who had previously that that seft lending was shoeing, is now sounding quite panicky. So I think this is our view, is that the saw rule or whatever recession rules had long other recession rules have long been triggered. I think the non linear point in the labor market and the unemployment where things should go sharply deteriorate thereafter that point has already passed. The Fed has an opportunity to cut in July, but they didn't take it, and even doing so, they probably were late. But now they're definitely late. And this is the reason why market pricings are dramatic for dramatic fifty BIPs rate cut in September. And there's even some options now pricing for an inter meeting period cut before the September meeting.

Yeah, well that's something that Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren is pushing for. She posted on Next Today that the Pale meeting serious mistake not cutting interest rates. He'd been warned over and over that waiting too long risks driving the economy into the ditch. The job's data is flashing red. She goes on to say, Anna pal needs to cancel his summer vacation and cut rates now, not wait six weeks.

Yeah, well that's something that Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren is pushing for. She posted on Next Today that the Pale meeting serious mistake not cutting interest rates. He'd been warned over and over that waiting too long risks driving the economy into the ditch. The job's data is flashing red. She goes on to say, Anna pal needs to cancel his summer vacation and cut rates now, not wait six weeks.

What's more likely in your mind.

What's more likely in your mind.

That the Fed would move ahead with an intermeeting cut, or that they would cut fifty full basis points at the next one.

That the Fed would move ahead with an intermeeting cut, or that they would cut fifty full basis points at the next one.

I think I think both are not our baseline. So there are two things to think about. One is what the FEED should do versus what the FED will do. In terms of should do, yes, the FED should be cutting fifty BIPs to catch up for the missed cuts that they should have done. But in terms of what they will do, we have heard from Powell and from his body language and from his words, he was very clearly that he and the other committee members are very far away from thinking about the fifty bitch cut. It is a possibility, though, so in this case, I think the market is ahead of itself and definitely the chance for an inter meeting cut is even slimmer. Note that we still have two more inflation report and another adopts report. I think that while the increase in unemployment rate today to four point three percent, a lot of it is real, reflecting underlying weakness in the labor market. A little bit of that is due to the hurricane barrel, which could revert in the next meeting. But I think all in all, I think the trend is stole for the unemployment rate to reach four point five percent by the end of this year, compared to the FED forecastle four point zero percent. Back in June.

I think I think both are not our baseline. So there are two things to think about. One is what the FEED should do versus what the FED will do. In terms of should do, yes, the FED should be cutting fifty BIPs to catch up for the missed cuts that they should have done. But in terms of what they will do, we have heard from Powell and from his body language and from his words, he was very clearly that he and the other committee members are very far away from thinking about the fifty bitch cut. It is a possibility, though, so in this case, I think the market is ahead of itself and definitely the chance for an inter meeting cut is even slimmer. Note that we still have two more inflation report and another adopts report. I think that while the increase in unemployment rate today to four point three percent, a lot of it is real, reflecting underlying weakness in the labor market. A little bit of that is due to the hurricane barrel, which could revert in the next meeting. But I think all in all, I think the trend is stole for the unemployment rate to reach four point five percent by the end of this year, compared to the FED forecastle four point zero percent. Back in June.

Well, how quickly things can change and won of Bloomberg Economics, our chief US economists, thank you so much for joining us on this job's day. And of course we've been speaking so much Joe before today, even about the notion that if the Fed were even to cut twenty five basis points in September, given the proximity to the election, that it could be seen as political. How political would a fifty basis points.

Well, how quickly things can change and won of Bloomberg Economics, our chief US economists, thank you so much for joining us on this job's day. And of course we've been speaking so much Joe before today, even about the notion that if the Fed were even to cut twenty five basis points in September, given the proximity to the election, that it could be seen as political. How political would a fifty basis points.

Regiment be seen as or one that doesn't even happen in a meeting that's been a long time since we've had one of those, And imagine what headlines could be about on a day when that happens. It's going to get more precarious as we draw our way closer here, but we'll obviously be covering this very closely in Washington at the same time as we cover this campaign. And we had breaking news a short time ago Kamala Harris gathering the delegates needed in a virtual role call to actually secure the Democratic nomination, which makes us ask, of course, what's Chicago all about anyway. Kristen Hawn is with us. I'm glad to say partner at Rock Solutions, one of the most connected Democratic operatives in Washington who we've stayed in touch with closely since this turnabout at the top of the Democratic ticket. And christ and I wonder your thoughts now that Kamala Harris technically has it in the bag. She's got three hundred million dollars from the last month and she's now challenging Donald Trump to a debate. But headlines like we have today on the job market, concerns about interest rates, the potential for a recession to coincide with this election, leaves us with a fraught landscape.

Regiment be seen as or one that doesn't even happen in a meeting that's been a long time since we've had one of those, And imagine what headlines could be about on a day when that happens. It's going to get more precarious as we draw our way closer here, but we'll obviously be covering this very closely in Washington at the same time as we cover this campaign. And we had breaking news a short time ago Kamala Harris gathering the delegates needed in a virtual role call to actually secure the Democratic nomination, which makes us ask, of course, what's Chicago all about anyway. Kristen Hawn is with us. I'm glad to say partner at Rock Solutions, one of the most connected Democratic operatives in Washington who we've stayed in touch with closely since this turnabout at the top of the Democratic ticket. And christ and I wonder your thoughts now that Kamala Harris technically has it in the bag. She's got three hundred million dollars from the last month and she's now challenging Donald Trump to a debate. But headlines like we have today on the job market, concerns about interest rates, the potential for a recession to coincide with this election, leaves us with a fraught landscape.

Doesn't it.

Doesn't it.

I mean, I think and jobs in the economy are always going to be central to any any candidate, any election, any presidential election, and who wins. So you know, I think she's had a really she's a very strong candidate. Democrats are united behind her. There was no question that she was going to be the nominee going into this process today through the weekend. But you know, at the end of the day, and she has and she will And if you see stuff coming out of the campaign you need to talk about, you know, kitchen table issues, which are you know, are people able to survive in this economy? Are they able to put food on the table, and that will be central to any you know, the campaign going forward.

I mean, I think and jobs in the economy are always going to be central to any any candidate, any election, any presidential election, and who wins. So you know, I think she's had a really she's a very strong candidate. Democrats are united behind her. There was no question that she was going to be the nominee going into this process today through the weekend. But you know, at the end of the day, and she has and she will And if you see stuff coming out of the campaign you need to talk about, you know, kitchen table issues, which are you know, are people able to survive in this economy? Are they able to put food on the table, and that will be central to any you know, the campaign going forward.

Well, so, when we consider that she effectively is the incumbent here since Biden is not running, to what extent will she face the same amount of blame that Joe Biden was getting for the economy from serving as his vice president. Our voters likely to see any real difference between them on this issue.

Well, so, when we consider that she effectively is the incumbent here since Biden is not running, to what extent will she face the same amount of blame that Joe Biden was getting for the economy from serving as his vice president. Our voters likely to see any real difference between them on this issue.

I think that they will. I mean, I think that she certainly won't get the same criticisms that Biden will. She's in a lot of ways. When we go to Chicago introducing herself to the American people and has the opportunity to talk about what she might do going forward, might do differently. I don't think there's the same amount of baggage there, but there's some to overcome for sure.

I think that they will. I mean, I think that she certainly won't get the same criticisms that Biden will. She's in a lot of ways. When we go to Chicago introducing herself to the American people and has the opportunity to talk about what she might do going forward, might do differently. I don't think there's the same amount of baggage there, but there's some to overcome for sure.

Talk to us about the debate. We had a conversation with Rick and Jeannie about this earlier this hour. Donald Trump's telling Fox Business News today.

Talk to us about the debate. We had a conversation with Rick and Jeannie about this earlier this hour. Donald Trump's telling Fox Business News today.

That why should he debate?

That why should he debate?

He's up in the polls. They already know who we are. Of course, he could have said the same thing with more credibility. Actually, when it came to himself and Joe Biden, She's goading him the campaigns out with a statement essentially calling him a scaredy cat. What triggers Donald Trump to the stage?

He's up in the polls. They already know who we are. Of course, he could have said the same thing with more credibility. Actually, when it came to himself and Joe Biden, She's goading him the campaigns out with a statement essentially calling him a scaredy cat. What triggers Donald Trump to the stage?

I mean, I think, you know, calling him a scaredy cat triggers him to the stage. But I think he never likes to look weak. And when she is looking straight to camer like she did in her rally and said, if you want to say something to me, say it to my face. I think in this, in this circumstance, him not debating her makes him look weak, and he doesn't like to look weak. I also like her chances going into this debate of looking very strong coming out of that, and that's something that will be, you know, very different than what we saw on the last debate. I think you see President Trump talking a lot about you know, he keeps wanting to reference Biden, and it's like, you're not running against Biden anymore, You're running against Kamala Harris. So you know, I think there's a reason why they don't want to do it. And he might actually have to prep for.

I mean, I think, you know, calling him a scaredy cat triggers him to the stage. But I think he never likes to look weak. And when she is looking straight to camer like she did in her rally and said, if you want to say something to me, say it to my face. I think in this, in this circumstance, him not debating her makes him look weak, and he doesn't like to look weak. I also like her chances going into this debate of looking very strong coming out of that, and that's something that will be, you know, very different than what we saw on the last debate. I think you see President Trump talking a lot about you know, he keeps wanting to reference Biden, and it's like, you're not running against Biden anymore, You're running against Kamala Harris. So you know, I think there's a reason why they don't want to do it. And he might actually have to prep for.

This one well.

This one well.

And it's not just a question of whether we're going to see the presidential candidate's debate, but vice presidential as well, we don't know if we'll see Senator JD. Vance on the stage with dot dot dot whoever she picks by next Tuesday, we expect.

And it's not just a question of whether we're going to see the presidential candidate's debate, but vice presidential as well, we don't know if we'll see Senator JD. Vance on the stage with dot dot dot whoever she picks by next Tuesday, we expect.

What are you hearing on that front, Kristen.

What are you hearing on that front, Kristen.

I, you know, I think she's having these conversations. We have just so many great, you know, people out there that can fill this role, and it's all about who she feels comfortable with, who makes the ticket stronger. You know, it's not necessarily are you a governor or a senator, It's it's you know, what maybe can that person do to fill up some of the gaps, and she believes makes the ticket stronger. And I would take any of these people that were discussing up against Shade Vance like all day long, every day.

I, you know, I think she's having these conversations. We have just so many great, you know, people out there that can fill this role, and it's all about who she feels comfortable with, who makes the ticket stronger. You know, it's not necessarily are you a governor or a senator, It's it's you know, what maybe can that person do to fill up some of the gaps, and she believes makes the ticket stronger. And I would take any of these people that were discussing up against Shade Vance like all day long, every day.

Uh I mentioned the nominating contest. Do you worry about the impression that that makes Why not wait to Chicago and actually have a real role call out for what happened. These are extraordinary circumstances for Democrats this time.

Uh I mentioned the nominating contest. Do you worry about the impression that that makes Why not wait to Chicago and actually have a real role call out for what happened. These are extraordinary circumstances for Democrats this time.

They are I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference on this.

They are I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference on this.

A smack of backroom deals.

A smack of backroom deals.

It doesn't. And honestly, I know this is getting into the nitty gritty of it. But you know, if you look at Ohio, there was a chance that you know, if we didn't do this, and then if people don't remember we had to delay the Democratic mention because of the Olympics. So this is way later than normally would have happened. So the decision was made back in the fall. I'm sorry in the spring to go to do this early just in case. Now Ohio the state legislature fixed the problem. But you know, I'm a Democrat. I don't want to rely on Republican state legislatures who might go back on their word. And go ahead and get this done and then we can have the celebration in the introduction and education to the American people of who she is in Chicago.

It doesn't. And honestly, I know this is getting into the nitty gritty of it. But you know, if you look at Ohio, there was a chance that you know, if we didn't do this, and then if people don't remember we had to delay the Democratic mention because of the Olympics. So this is way later than normally would have happened. So the decision was made back in the fall. I'm sorry in the spring to go to do this early just in case. Now Ohio the state legislature fixed the problem. But you know, I'm a Democrat. I don't want to rely on Republican state legislatures who might go back on their word. And go ahead and get this done and then we can have the celebration in the introduction and education to the American people of who she is in Chicago.

So if we consider that the vice president of the United States still needs to be introduced to the American people to a large extent after being a breath away from the presidency for three and a half years, how hard is it going to be to introduce any of these vice presidential candidates to the American people in such a short span of time for them to actually make a difference, to contribute to the ticket as you describe.

So if we consider that the vice president of the United States still needs to be introduced to the American people to a large extent after being a breath away from the presidency for three and a half years, how hard is it going to be to introduce any of these vice presidential candidates to the American people in such a short span of time for them to actually make a difference, to contribute to the ticket as you describe.

I think it makes a difference in the states where it will matter. So this is not that part isn't abnormal. I mean picking your mate and who that is. Clearly you're voting for the presidential candidate. But if you're looking at states like Pennsylvania or Arizona, they're going to know who these people are. So yes, it's an uphill climb to educate the American public on who the vice presidential canadate is. But I think that you know that's that's the campaign's job over the next couple of weeks.

I think it makes a difference in the states where it will matter. So this is not that part isn't abnormal. I mean picking your mate and who that is. Clearly you're voting for the presidential candidate. But if you're looking at states like Pennsylvania or Arizona, they're going to know who these people are. So yes, it's an uphill climb to educate the American public on who the vice presidential canadate is. But I think that you know that's that's the campaign's job over the next couple of weeks.

So we've heard a lot about a sugar high and a honeymoon and all of that, And I suppose you could qualify this entire period of time. We're in straight through the convention, straight through Chicago. Then we get out on the road the real sprint begins. Give us a sense of what kind of planning this campaign is going to be focused on. Coming out of August into September. Kids go back to school, people back from vacation. They're paying attention.

So we've heard a lot about a sugar high and a honeymoon and all of that, And I suppose you could qualify this entire period of time. We're in straight through the convention, straight through Chicago. Then we get out on the road the real sprint begins. Give us a sense of what kind of planning this campaign is going to be focused on. Coming out of August into September. Kids go back to school, people back from vacation. They're paying attention.

Now. I think you'll see a lot of focus like you will just starting next week on the Blue Wall States, quote unquote blue Wall States. That's the easiest path to victory for the Democrats if you're looking at Pennsylvania and Michigan, Wisconsin, those type states. But I think you're also going to see a folkocus on North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, those type of states where you've got strong down ballot candidates as well, strong governors who are going to be I mean, you see the surrogates and how strong these surrogates are, so anybody who's in the race and the running to be the VP pick and is not is going to be a strong surrogate for her in those states. So I think you'll see a lot of focus on where the campaign needs to be focused in order to get to that number in order to win the when the president win the presidency well, and of.

Now. I think you'll see a lot of focus like you will just starting next week on the Blue Wall States, quote unquote blue Wall States. That's the easiest path to victory for the Democrats if you're looking at Pennsylvania and Michigan, Wisconsin, those type states. But I think you're also going to see a folkocus on North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, those type of states where you've got strong down ballot candidates as well, strong governors who are going to be I mean, you see the surrogates and how strong these surrogates are, so anybody who's in the race and the running to be the VP pick and is not is going to be a strong surrogate for her in those states. So I think you'll see a lot of focus on where the campaign needs to be focused in order to get to that number in order to win the when the president win the presidency well, and of.

Course that could be physical visits like what we're going to see next week. It also could be just buying up time on the airwaves. She's got to have a lot of resources to do that. The campaign says it raised three hundred and ten million dollars in July. What is the responsible way to spend that money? Knowing that kind of fundraising burst isn't necessarily sustainable.

Course that could be physical visits like what we're going to see next week. It also could be just buying up time on the airwaves. She's got to have a lot of resources to do that. The campaign says it raised three hundred and ten million dollars in July. What is the responsible way to spend that money? Knowing that kind of fundraising burst isn't necessarily sustainable.

Right, So I think a number of things you have to be up on air, You have to be up on television, so that's a given. And then you've seen the incredible success of the on line forums. You know that she's had with surrogates. You know, you've had like zoom calls, Yes, the white Men for Homla, you know, the women bro zoom.

Right, So I think a number of things you have to be up on air, You have to be up on television, so that's a given. And then you've seen the incredible success of the on line forums. You know that she's had with surrogates. You know, you've had like zoom calls, Yes, the white Men for Homla, you know, the women bro zoom.

Right.

Right.

But I think equally, if not more important, is the infrastructure that's already on the ground, the unprecedented infrastructure on the ground. I mean the number of the you know, folks that are walking around, the volunteers, the campaign staff in these battleground states. That's a responsible way to spend money.

But I think equally, if not more important, is the infrastructure that's already on the ground, the unprecedented infrastructure on the ground. I mean the number of the you know, folks that are walking around, the volunteers, the campaign staff in these battleground states. That's a responsible way to spend money.

Is it right to stash Joe Biden on a Monday night? He couldn't introduce Kamala Harris on Thursday? I mean, am I looking at it the wrong way? You're gonna say, hey, he's in prime time. That's a great slot, Right.

Is it right to stash Joe Biden on a Monday night? He couldn't introduce Kamala Harris on Thursday? I mean, am I looking at it the wrong way? You're gonna say, hey, he's in prime time. That's a great slot, Right.

That's exactly what I'm gonna say, primetime, great slot.

That's exactly what I'm gonna say, primetime, great slot.

Kristin Han, It's always great to have a Kristin with his partner at Rock Solutions that are frequent panelists here on balance of power, of course, we like to tap her expertise whenever we have the opportunity. With so many questions, Kayley and this democratic ticket. The next couple of days are going to be off the important Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.