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Kamala Harris holding forth in Raleigh, North Carolina with her economic policy proposals today, and as we've told you, she's painting out of three buckets, largely housing assistance. We're going to be talking about expanding tax credits and some other issues that we may not have heard about so far yet. But controlling prices, which has been a big theme of the week, will be a big part of this, with a proposal to create a federal ban on price gouging. That's two forty five technically Eastern time, if all things start on time, and we're going to talk in a moment with Gene Spurling about what to expect as we set the baseline with my colleague Eric Wasson, and one of the most important pieces of journalism that you can read today must Win Michigan's angst over inflation in EVS shapes the twenty twenty four race. Great on the ground reporting by way of Tony M's Restaurant and Lansing. Eric, It's great to have you. Thank you for joining us as always here on Bloomberg. There's a particular line that jumps off the page in your piece today, as we consider these candidates going out of their way to try to pitch economic policy proposals, you write, neither Trump nor Harris have offered many specifics on their plans to cut the high costs, which have this woman you interviewed here at the restaurant contemplating layoffs. This is the week where the campaigns fill in the blanks. What are people in Michigan looking to hear?

Kamala Harris holding forth in Raleigh, North Carolina with her economic policy proposals today, and as we've told you, she's painting out of three buckets, largely housing assistance. We're going to be talking about expanding tax credits and some other issues that we may not have heard about so far yet. But controlling prices, which has been a big theme of the week, will be a big part of this, with a proposal to create a federal ban on price gouging. That's two forty five technically Eastern time, if all things start on time, and we're going to talk in a moment with Gene Spurling about what to expect as we set the baseline with my colleague Eric Wasson, and one of the most important pieces of journalism that you can read today must Win Michigan's angst over inflation in EVS shapes the twenty twenty four race. Great on the ground reporting by way of Tony M's Restaurant and Lansing. Eric, It's great to have you. Thank you for joining us as always here on Bloomberg. There's a particular line that jumps off the page in your piece today, as we consider these candidates going out of their way to try to pitch economic policy proposals, you write, neither Trump nor Harris have offered many specifics on their plans to cut the high costs, which have this woman you interviewed here at the restaurant contemplating layoffs. This is the week where the campaigns fill in the blanks. What are people in Michigan looking to hear?

Yeah, and I was jove reh Michigan for a week.

Yeah, and I was jove reh Michigan for a week.

I was very impressed by how sphiscated voters are, especially about the auto industry out there. There's a real wively debate among the popular of the wisdom of pushing electric vehicles, of you know, sort of having pollution laws that would basically push the car companies into making more of them, of incentivizing them. You know, a lot of auto workers are afraid that there's fewer parts that I mean, fewer jobs and this is risky for GM, which was in bankruptcy a decade and a half ago. So that was very interesting. You know, this restaurant that I went and talked to, they're big supporters of the union. The union pickets out front whenever there's a strike. But she might vote for Trump because times are better, prices were lower.

I was very impressed by how sphiscated voters are, especially about the auto industry out there. There's a real wively debate among the popular of the wisdom of pushing electric vehicles, of you know, sort of having pollution laws that would basically push the car companies into making more of them, of incentivizing them. You know, a lot of auto workers are afraid that there's fewer parts that I mean, fewer jobs and this is risky for GM, which was in bankruptcy a decade and a half ago. So that was very interesting. You know, this restaurant that I went and talked to, they're big supporters of the union. The union pickets out front whenever there's a strike. But she might vote for Trump because times are better, prices were lower.

She got twenty five employees, and with the cost of.

She got twenty five employees, and with the cost of.

Food and new minimum wage law in Michigan going into effects, she might have to lay some of them off. And we heard that through I heard that throughout the state. And Democrats are really you know, they're not playing defense. They're not talking about bidnomics. In the fact, they're saying, we hear some concrete proposals to move forward. And that's what voters are saying. They want to hear. They don't want to hear a personality campaign. They're sick of the mud slinging. But they're very worried about prices. And what we heard from the Republicans is more energy production, you know, go back really pushing fossil fuel vehicles and what Motown is famous for producing as far as motors, and like Slotkin on down saying we have an industrial policy. The evs are the way of the future. They'll either be built in China or built here. And as far as costs, we can address housing, we can address prescription drugs, which has already started to tackle.

Food and new minimum wage law in Michigan going into effects, she might have to lay some of them off. And we heard that through I heard that throughout the state. And Democrats are really you know, they're not playing defense. They're not talking about bidnomics. In the fact, they're saying, we hear some concrete proposals to move forward. And that's what voters are saying. They want to hear. They don't want to hear a personality campaign. They're sick of the mud slinging. But they're very worried about prices. And what we heard from the Republicans is more energy production, you know, go back really pushing fossil fuel vehicles and what Motown is famous for producing as far as motors, and like Slotkin on down saying we have an industrial policy. The evs are the way of the future. They'll either be built in China or built here. And as far as costs, we can address housing, we can address prescription drugs, which has already started to tackle.

We can address student loans.

We can address student loans.

While acknowledging, you know, I think the lower ballot candies acknowledge that maybe price gouging legislation won't be a pure all And certainly I think voters are going to disappointed that we may slow inflation, but we're not going to go back to twenty nineteen prices. That's just not really how the economy works. So I thought it was very interesting. I think, you know, these are swing districts a swing state. You know, the eighth and seventh district in Michigan could flip the house. That's where Dan Kildy is retiring and Slotkin's moving trying to move on to the Senate, and these these voters are really on the fence.

While acknowledging, you know, I think the lower ballot candies acknowledge that maybe price gouging legislation won't be a pure all And certainly I think voters are going to disappointed that we may slow inflation, but we're not going to go back to twenty nineteen prices. That's just not really how the economy works. So I thought it was very interesting. I think, you know, these are swing districts a swing state. You know, the eighth and seventh district in Michigan could flip the house. That's where Dan Kildy is retiring and Slotkin's moving trying to move on to the Senate, and these these voters are really on the fence.

Well, it's real life stuff here. You talk about Tony M's restaurant. They had to actually cut their hours, Eric because GM got rid of the third shift. This is the stuff that we don't always talk about in Washington. And to that end, Alyssa Slotkin. You mentioned the congresswoman here a moment ago with a quote in your story. If I hear one more Washington based, Harvard educated person tell me no, it's really better and the economy is actually very good, I'm gonna have to maybe depart that meeting. How does Kamala Harris get to that today?

Well, it's real life stuff here. You talk about Tony M's restaurant. They had to actually cut their hours, Eric because GM got rid of the third shift. This is the stuff that we don't always talk about in Washington. And to that end, Alyssa Slotkin. You mentioned the congresswoman here a moment ago with a quote in your story. If I hear one more Washington based, Harvard educated person tell me no, it's really better and the economy is actually very good, I'm gonna have to maybe depart that meeting. How does Kamala Harris get to that today?

You know, I think that she's doing.

You know, I think that she's doing.

I think what Slacka would want her to do and probably asked her to do when they met in Detroit earlier this month, is to talk about concrete policy proposals. You know, I don't know if Slakin's going to endorse everything. She's probably running a little bit to the right of Harris, as she must. But you know, they want to see meaty proposals, and that's what voters want to see.

I think what Slacka would want her to do and probably asked her to do when they met in Detroit earlier this month, is to talk about concrete policy proposals. You know, I don't know if Slakin's going to endorse everything. She's probably running a little bit to the right of Harris, as she must. But you know, they want to see meaty proposals, and that's what voters want to see.

And I saw very few.

And I saw very few.

You know, I saw some retirees who already owned their house that the economy was doing well. But young people, millennials, jen z all very angsty about starting a family. When can they ever afford a house? When can they save up? And as Luckin said, there's no point going and trying to sell people that hey, I thinks are actually good because these stats they they are people know their pocketbook.

You know, I saw some retirees who already owned their house that the economy was doing well. But young people, millennials, jen z all very angsty about starting a family. When can they ever afford a house? When can they save up? And as Luckin said, there's no point going and trying to sell people that hey, I thinks are actually good because these stats they they are people know their pocketbook.

Eric, thank you so much. Great to see you in great reporting. Find that piece on the terminal and online. Eric Wasason Bloomberg, congressional reporter getting into the field. This is on the ground reporting, and it's something that Gene Sperling knows a lot about because now he's back on the trail from the White House joining the Harris campaign as senior economic advisor. The last time we spoke, he was an economic advisor to President Biden, and he joins us in a new capacity today. Gene, it's great to have you back on Bloomberg with the speech less than two hours away from Kamala Harris. What should her message? What will her message be to the people eating at Tony M's restaurant in Lansing, Michigan, who are bemoaning the fact that GM got rid of a third shift. How does she win their trust to handle the economy over Donald Trump?

Eric, thank you so much. Great to see you in great reporting. Find that piece on the terminal and online. Eric Wasason Bloomberg, congressional reporter getting into the field. This is on the ground reporting, and it's something that Gene Sperling knows a lot about because now he's back on the trail from the White House joining the Harris campaign as senior economic advisor. The last time we spoke, he was an economic advisor to President Biden, and he joins us in a new capacity today. Gene, it's great to have you back on Bloomberg with the speech less than two hours away from Kamala Harris. What should her message? What will her message be to the people eating at Tony M's restaurant in Lansing, Michigan, who are bemoaning the fact that GM got rid of a third shift. How does she win their trust to handle the economy over Donald Trump?

Well, what they're going to hear from a vice president. Here is.

Well, what they're going to hear from a vice president. Here is.

A presidential candidate who is focused like a laser on taking on powerful interests to lower costs that are affecting them right now and doing so in her first one hundred days. So she's going to be laying out a plan that first of all, is going to make clear that we're going to have the first federal law ever that allows banning price gouging by grocery chains, by the meat industry.

A presidential candidate who is focused like a laser on taking on powerful interests to lower costs that are affecting them right now and doing so in her first one hundred days. So she's going to be laying out a plan that first of all, is going to make clear that we're going to have the first federal law ever that allows banning price gouging by grocery chains, by the meat industry.

That because I think that.

That because I think that.

A lot of average people are thinking, you know, agree with her that they saw a lot of big companies, grocery companies, food companies keep their profit margins high as opposed to passing on savings at a time when people still think rightly so that food prices are still high, even with food inflation coming down, they still look at where things were three years ago and they feel like it's too high, and they want to make sure that the person in the White House is doing everything they can to hold big corporation's feet to the fire. Understanding prices go up and down, people use market power, but not allowing bad behavior that keeps prices high. And I will say that its Attorney General of California, Kamala Harris, was very effective in taking on big oil, big pharma, the big banks, on housing where they acted in an improper or legal way to keep prices high.

A lot of average people are thinking, you know, agree with her that they saw a lot of big companies, grocery companies, food companies keep their profit margins high as opposed to passing on savings at a time when people still think rightly so that food prices are still high, even with food inflation coming down, they still look at where things were three years ago and they feel like it's too high, and they want to make sure that the person in the White House is doing everything they can to hold big corporation's feet to the fire. Understanding prices go up and down, people use market power, but not allowing bad behavior that keeps prices high. And I will say that its Attorney General of California, Kamala Harris, was very effective in taking on big oil, big pharma, the big banks, on housing where they acted in an improper or legal way to keep prices high.

Secondly, and I think this goes.

Secondly, and I think this goes.

To what was just being reported, she is going to have the most significant plan to end the shortage of affordable housing that we've seen from any candidate. Number one, she is going to ex span the efforts to increase the supply of affordable housing, both rental and those first starter homes. She's going to do the first ever tax cut for industry if they build affordable starter homes and if they sell them to first time home buyers. She's going to have a challenge fund that's going to require state local governments to do innovative things to increase supply. Secondly, she's going to crack down on the price fixing that we are seeing through algorithmic use of algorithms that are illegally increasing prices of renters, and going to stop the hoarding of single family homes by Big Wall Street private equity firms and instead give incentives to sell those to individual families and to get those back in the community. And third, which I think is really important, is why are those people that were being talked to worried about owning a home. Most of them are working hard, getting a paycheck and then paying a rent. They're paying a rent that is often as high as a mortgage payment. Why are they paying a landlord instead of building wealth because they can't put together a down payment. She's going to say, if you have paid your rent on time for two years, people will be eligible for a twenty five thousand dollars down payment assistance. This shows what kind of a candidate she is. She's not just for helping me get by, which is important.

To what was just being reported, she is going to have the most significant plan to end the shortage of affordable housing that we've seen from any candidate. Number one, she is going to ex span the efforts to increase the supply of affordable housing, both rental and those first starter homes. She's going to do the first ever tax cut for industry if they build affordable starter homes and if they sell them to first time home buyers. She's going to have a challenge fund that's going to require state local governments to do innovative things to increase supply. Secondly, she's going to crack down on the price fixing that we are seeing through algorithmic use of algorithms that are illegally increasing prices of renters, and going to stop the hoarding of single family homes by Big Wall Street private equity firms and instead give incentives to sell those to individual families and to get those back in the community. And third, which I think is really important, is why are those people that were being talked to worried about owning a home. Most of them are working hard, getting a paycheck and then paying a rent. They're paying a rent that is often as high as a mortgage payment. Why are they paying a landlord instead of building wealth because they can't put together a down payment. She's going to say, if you have paid your rent on time for two years, people will be eligible for a twenty five thousand dollars down payment assistance. This shows what kind of a candidate she is. She's not just for helping me get by, which is important.

Okay, Gene, I was kind of hoping to have a conversation with you today. Okay, Well, okay, so God that we just went through the whole thing here. I was kind of hoping to have a little back and forth, Gene. To what extent is Kamala Harris going to have to draw a distinction between her approach and Joe Biden's or is there none?

Okay, Gene, I was kind of hoping to have a conversation with you today. Okay, Well, okay, so God that we just went through the whole thing here. I was kind of hoping to have a little back and forth, Gene. To what extent is Kamala Harris going to have to draw a distinction between her approach and Joe Biden's or is there none?

Well?

Well?

I think she's She is building on a lot of things, but I think housing is an area where you see her going broader. She is doing more on the supply side. This is a brand new tax cut that not only encourages building affordable rentals, but building starter homes that's never happened for that is an expansion the down payment assistance, which was ten thousand dollars under Biden. She's going to twenty five thousand dollars. You know, we know what the cost of a house is. That is going to open the door to home ownership to millions more people.

I think she's She is building on a lot of things, but I think housing is an area where you see her going broader. She is doing more on the supply side. This is a brand new tax cut that not only encourages building affordable rentals, but building starter homes that's never happened for that is an expansion the down payment assistance, which was ten thousand dollars under Biden. She's going to twenty five thousand dollars. You know, we know what the cost of a house is. That is going to open the door to home ownership to millions more people.

So those are ways she's expanding.

So those are ways she's expanding.

She's also proposing something in the child tax credit that is new, which she's saying that in the first year of life, let's give families actually six thousand dollars. So many people don't have paid leave, and yet they have to deal with the price of diapers, car seats, you know, all of the things that make the first year of life more expensive. So she's helping families deal with costs in these areas. These are expansions that she's doing. And I'll be honest, she is announcing more things that go after price gouging and price fixing among corporate landlords and in the food area than President Biden has. He's taken steps, but I think you see that she is not really swerving away, but she is putting her own stamp, and often it means going further and a little tougher, particularly on issues that affect the price. The prices that you just heard in the previous segment are really up front of mine for so many working families who are still feeling a squeeze, even with low unemployment, even with record job creation.

She's also proposing something in the child tax credit that is new, which she's saying that in the first year of life, let's give families actually six thousand dollars. So many people don't have paid leave, and yet they have to deal with the price of diapers, car seats, you know, all of the things that make the first year of life more expensive. So she's helping families deal with costs in these areas. These are expansions that she's doing. And I'll be honest, she is announcing more things that go after price gouging and price fixing among corporate landlords and in the food area than President Biden has. He's taken steps, but I think you see that she is not really swerving away, but she is putting her own stamp, and often it means going further and a little tougher, particularly on issues that affect the price. The prices that you just heard in the previous segment are really up front of mine for so many working families who are still feeling a squeeze, even with low unemployment, even with record job creation.

We saw the University of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index today gene up for the first time in five months, and noteworthy, as we saw from the report, the rise and sentiment partially driven by Joe Biden's decision to drop out of the race. Is there an inherent optimism by changing the top of the ticket that Kamala Harris brings into this speech today.

We saw the University of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index today gene up for the first time in five months, and noteworthy, as we saw from the report, the rise and sentiment partially driven by Joe Biden's decision to drop out of the race. Is there an inherent optimism by changing the top of the ticket that Kamala Harris brings into this speech today.

I don't think there's any question that.

I don't think there's any question that.

As much as President Biden and Vice President Harris have an extraordinary record of accomplishment, particularly legislative accomplishment, nobody doubts that about the Infrastructure Bill, the American Rescue Plan, the Chips Bill.

As much as President Biden and Vice President Harris have an extraordinary record of accomplishment, particularly legislative accomplishment, nobody doubts that about the Infrastructure Bill, the American Rescue Plan, the Chips Bill.

I mean, you can see with your own eyes.

I mean, you can see with your own eyes.

She has created a new energy, the excitement with her and with Tim Waltz. You can feel it everywhere.

She has created a new energy, the excitement with her and with Tim Waltz. You can feel it everywhere.

Now.

Now.

You know, that's it's hard for me to put that in economic words, but I think you know, going to what you were saying earlier, what you are hearing from her right now is going after the prices that affect families. She's going to also talk later about the things we could do legislatively in a Harris Waltz administration. I mean, childcare costs are one of the main taxes on people going to work, you know, helping people with family caregiving.

You know, that's it's hard for me to put that in economic words, but I think you know, going to what you were saying earlier, what you are hearing from her right now is going after the prices that affect families. She's going to also talk later about the things we could do legislatively in a Harris Waltz administration. I mean, childcare costs are one of the main taxes on people going to work, you know, helping people with family caregiving.

You know, these are things that are more legislative.

You know, these are things that are more legislative.

But right now, what she's doing is going right at like a laser beam at.

But right now, what she's doing is going right at like a laser beam at.

What is really probably people now. And I will tell you.

What is really probably people now. And I will tell you.

That, I would say food prices and the price A lot of them know they're still working, a lot of them know they're now getting a raised, but they don't want to give back some of that raise for higher meat prices that might be due not to supply chain shortages, but to companies trying.

That, I would say food prices and the price A lot of them know they're still working, a lot of them know they're now getting a raised, but they don't want to give back some of that raise for higher meat prices that might be due not to supply chain shortages, but to companies trying.

To jack up their profit margins.

To jack up their profit margins.

We just saw a study based on Census data earlier in the year that suggested profit margins in many of the grocery retail was at the highest in twenty years. I think people want to see a president who's focused on that, focused on rent and also focused on lowering prescription drugs.

We just saw a study based on Census data earlier in the year that suggested profit margins in many of the grocery retail was at the highest in twenty years. I think people want to see a president who's focused on that, focused on rent and also focused on lowering prescription drugs.

And one of the.

And one of the.

Things she called for is saying that thirty five dollars an insulin, that two thousand dollars out of pocket limit. That shouldn't just be seniors, that should be for all American families.

Things she called for is saying that thirty five dollars an insulin, that two thousand dollars out of pocket limit. That shouldn't just be seniors, that should be for all American families.

Jeene Sperling, senior economic advisor to the Harris Walls campaign, Thank you Gene for the time today we're going to be hearing from Kamala Harris, although I guess Gene just gave us a good sense of what we're going to hear. Starting it to forty five Eastern time again, Raleigh, North Carolina. We'll see when things actually begin, will bring you that address, of course live. When she begins speaking, we're going to talk to Gene Soroka, the executive director of the Port of La coming up here. But first want to compare notes with our panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are with us now Bloomberg Politics contributors. After quite a dive there with Gene Sperling, Genie, is that the best way to speak to people about the economy to talk them off a cliff?

Jeene Sperling, senior economic advisor to the Harris Walls campaign, Thank you Gene for the time today we're going to be hearing from Kamala Harris, although I guess Gene just gave us a good sense of what we're going to hear. Starting it to forty five Eastern time again, Raleigh, North Carolina. We'll see when things actually begin, will bring you that address, of course live. When she begins speaking, we're going to talk to Gene Soroka, the executive director of the Port of La coming up here. But first want to compare notes with our panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are with us now Bloomberg Politics contributors. After quite a dive there with Gene Sperling, Genie, is that the best way to speak to people about the economy to talk them off a cliff?

Yes, I mean what she really needs to do is people are sour about the economy. I mean, of course, we've had some good numbers in the last couple of weeks on inflation and sentiment that you've been talking about, but people are sour on it. So her major message has got to be and I feel your pain. I am understanding where where you've come from, because this is my middle class background. As Jean Sperling was just talking about, this is what I did as Attorney General, and this is what I plan to do going forward. But she's really got a show that she's prepared to take on the costs that people are frustrated with. And so it's a start. I wouldn't say it's an end, but certainly it's a start.

Yes, I mean what she really needs to do is people are sour about the economy. I mean, of course, we've had some good numbers in the last couple of weeks on inflation and sentiment that you've been talking about, but people are sour on it. So her major message has got to be and I feel your pain. I am understanding where where you've come from, because this is my middle class background. As Jean Sperling was just talking about, this is what I did as Attorney General, and this is what I plan to do going forward. But she's really got a show that she's prepared to take on the costs that people are frustrated with. And so it's a start. I wouldn't say it's an end, but certainly it's a start.

Gene just spent some time with us here speaking on behalf of the campaign. Rick is that the tone that the Harris campaign should be taking. It was almost like he was reading out of a phone book to us.

Gene just spent some time with us here speaking on behalf of the campaign. Rick is that the tone that the Harris campaign should be taking. It was almost like he was reading out of a phone book to us.

Well, I think you've got a good set of talking points from the guy who wrote them, and I'm sure there's a lot of authorship there. So I think, setting aside the style, I think there's some red flags. I mean one, she's at least laying out a relatively detailed plan on what she thinks can help spur economic growth, but also, you know, lower prices. The problem is that the genesis of the inflation curve was government spending nothing. In there about reigning in the growth of government spending nothing in there about sensitivity to deficits. Nothing in there about how you're going to balance a budget. So I mean, at the end of the day, you can promise anything anybody, but you know, how do you pay for it?

Well, I think you've got a good set of talking points from the guy who wrote them, and I'm sure there's a lot of authorship there. So I think, setting aside the style, I think there's some red flags. I mean one, she's at least laying out a relatively detailed plan on what she thinks can help spur economic growth, but also, you know, lower prices. The problem is that the genesis of the inflation curve was government spending nothing. In there about reigning in the growth of government spending nothing in there about sensitivity to deficits. Nothing in there about how you're going to balance a budget. So I mean, at the end of the day, you can promise anything anybody, but you know, how do you pay for it?

Well, let's put a finer point on this. With Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzo coming up here, we'll spend more time with our panel in the news on the trail today, coinciding with important data on the economy. It's straight ahead. This is Bloomberg.

Well, let's put a finer point on this. With Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzo coming up here, we'll spend more time with our panel in the news on the trail today, coinciding with important data on the economy. It's straight ahead. This is Bloomberg.

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Good to have you with us here on the Friday edition of Balance of Power. You made it to the threshold of the weekend. A lot of people in Washington are headed for the airport on the way to Chicago because one week from right now, we'll be reviewing the big nomination acceptance speech from the night earlier from Kamala Harris. A lot's gonna happen between now and then. Right, we've got Joe Biden starting things off on Monday night. Tim Walls is Wednesday, the big one Thursday, and a lot of fascinating conversations in between. Here on Bloomberg, we will be on the ground with all of our political shows, and by that I mean this one Balance of Power twelve to two pm Eastern time, five to six pm Eastern We're going to have it all for you, including special coverage on Thursday night Whenkamala Harris accepts the nomination, just like we did for the Republicans in Milwaukee. And you don't just like show up for this kind of stuff. You need an advanced team, and that has led by Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall. She's in Chicago right now and is going to be reporting along with us next week. But as the preparations get underway, this is a fascinating time to be in Chicago, right. The barriers are going up, cops are arriving from all over the country, and Tyler, you tell us what you're seeing. How's it going in Chicago?

Good to have you with us here on the Friday edition of Balance of Power. You made it to the threshold of the weekend. A lot of people in Washington are headed for the airport on the way to Chicago because one week from right now, we'll be reviewing the big nomination acceptance speech from the night earlier from Kamala Harris. A lot's gonna happen between now and then. Right, we've got Joe Biden starting things off on Monday night. Tim Walls is Wednesday, the big one Thursday, and a lot of fascinating conversations in between. Here on Bloomberg, we will be on the ground with all of our political shows, and by that I mean this one Balance of Power twelve to two pm Eastern time, five to six pm Eastern We're going to have it all for you, including special coverage on Thursday night Whenkamala Harris accepts the nomination, just like we did for the Republicans in Milwaukee. And you don't just like show up for this kind of stuff. You need an advanced team, and that has led by Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall. She's in Chicago right now and is going to be reporting along with us next week. But as the preparations get underway, this is a fascinating time to be in Chicago, right. The barriers are going up, cops are arriving from all over the country, and Tyler, you tell us what you're seeing. How's it going in Chicago?

Yeah, Hey, Joe, you can actually see the United Center right over my shoulder. Of course, that is where the Democratic National Convention will kick off on Monday. We headed over to the arena earlier today to start to see some of those security precautions that you're mentioning going into place. We saw one hundreds of law enforcement officers and Secret Service agents doing a walkthrough of the arena and and some of those big security barricades starting to go up over the perimeters. Because Joe, the DNC says that they're expecting fifty thousand people to flock to Chicago next week to tend the convention. And for the Chicago Police Department's part, they say that they're allocating twenty five hundred law enforcement officers specifically to patrol the arena and its perimeter. And this is important because one of the themes that we're going to be watching for next week, as you've been covering on Balance of Power, is the energy behind potential protests that we're expecting to descend on the DNC. I will point out that earlier this week, a federal judge actually ruled against protesters, saying that they wanted a different route right now. The route goes about two blocks away from the United Center. They're arguing that that violates their first Amendment rights because it doesn't get them close enough, and the root's also not as long as they wanted. However, that judge ruled that the current route is what prioritizes safety, and that's what the city has put into place where everybody involved, from protesters to delegates to all of us on the ground. But Joe quickly, I just want to point out that while we have been talking about this expected enthusiasm when it does come to protesters, we're also watching for enthusiasm for the Harris Walls ticket. I would point you to our latest Bloomberg News Morning Console pulling, particularly when it comes to young voters. I found that in some key battleground states now fifty four percent of young voters ages eighteen to thirty four say that they're more likely to vote now that President Biden is out of the race. It's interesting to think that just weeks ago, we had thought that this was going to be his convention.

Yeah, Hey, Joe, you can actually see the United Center right over my shoulder. Of course, that is where the Democratic National Convention will kick off on Monday. We headed over to the arena earlier today to start to see some of those security precautions that you're mentioning going into place. We saw one hundreds of law enforcement officers and Secret Service agents doing a walkthrough of the arena and and some of those big security barricades starting to go up over the perimeters. Because Joe, the DNC says that they're expecting fifty thousand people to flock to Chicago next week to tend the convention. And for the Chicago Police Department's part, they say that they're allocating twenty five hundred law enforcement officers specifically to patrol the arena and its perimeter. And this is important because one of the themes that we're going to be watching for next week, as you've been covering on Balance of Power, is the energy behind potential protests that we're expecting to descend on the DNC. I will point out that earlier this week, a federal judge actually ruled against protesters, saying that they wanted a different route right now. The route goes about two blocks away from the United Center. They're arguing that that violates their first Amendment rights because it doesn't get them close enough, and the root's also not as long as they wanted. However, that judge ruled that the current route is what prioritizes safety, and that's what the city has put into place where everybody involved, from protesters to delegates to all of us on the ground. But Joe quickly, I just want to point out that while we have been talking about this expected enthusiasm when it does come to protesters, we're also watching for enthusiasm for the Harris Walls ticket. I would point you to our latest Bloomberg News Morning Console pulling, particularly when it comes to young voters. I found that in some key battleground states now fifty four percent of young voters ages eighteen to thirty four say that they're more likely to vote now that President Biden is out of the race. It's interesting to think that just weeks ago, we had thought that this was going to be his convention.

Yeah, fascinating stuff. This is a really interesting moment that we're in Tyler, and I'm glad to hear the cicadas have made it in time. I think they beat the delegates to Chicago. We're learning a little bit more about the lineup here Wednesday night is starting to come together. It looks like Nancy Pelosi will speak two nights after the man she helped to push out of the race does the same. Tom Swazi is going to be speaking as well, on the matter of immigration, of course, the New York congressman who won back his old seat on largely that issue of immigrant that we he handled that in New York following the George Santos saga. Tyler, what's the rest of the week looking like? What are the highlights here on the four days that we'll be covered.

Yeah, fascinating stuff. This is a really interesting moment that we're in Tyler, and I'm glad to hear the cicadas have made it in time. I think they beat the delegates to Chicago. We're learning a little bit more about the lineup here Wednesday night is starting to come together. It looks like Nancy Pelosi will speak two nights after the man she helped to push out of the race does the same. Tom Swazi is going to be speaking as well, on the matter of immigration, of course, the New York congressman who won back his old seat on largely that issue of immigrant that we he handled that in New York following the George Santos saga. Tyler, what's the rest of the week looking like? What are the highlights here on the four days that we'll be covered.

Right, So, besides the names that you mentioned, and that we know that President Biden's going to be headlining on Monday night, we know that the Clintons are also going to speak as well as former President Barack Obama. But Joe, I want to point out that while we are watching for who will be here at the DNC, I'm also watching for who isn't going to be here. We have a new reporting now that Senator Shared Brown and also Senator John Tester, two key senators in some critical critical Senate races in Ohio and Montana, respectively, say that they will not be here. There's also a reporting coming out that Senator Jackie Rosen, a Democrat in Nevada, will also not attend. I know that our team's working to confirm that. So it's really interesting to watch how some of these vulnerable Democrats are opting not to come to the DNC, saying instead that they are needed back home to campaign. Because we are really in the thick of it as we count down to November.

Right, So, besides the names that you mentioned, and that we know that President Biden's going to be headlining on Monday night, we know that the Clintons are also going to speak as well as former President Barack Obama. But Joe, I want to point out that while we are watching for who will be here at the DNC, I'm also watching for who isn't going to be here. We have a new reporting now that Senator Shared Brown and also Senator John Tester, two key senators in some critical critical Senate races in Ohio and Montana, respectively, say that they will not be here. There's also a reporting coming out that Senator Jackie Rosen, a Democrat in Nevada, will also not attend. I know that our team's working to confirm that. So it's really interesting to watch how some of these vulnerable Democrats are opting not to come to the DNC, saying instead that they are needed back home to campaign. Because we are really in the thick of it as we count down to November.

We sure are.

We sure are.

Tyler Kendall, great reporting with the elgoing by behind her, the cicadas singing in the tree is a true vision of Chicago.

Tyler Kendall, great reporting with the elgoing by behind her, the cicadas singing in the tree is a true vision of Chicago.

Tyler.

Tyler.

Thank you. We'll meet you there this weekend. And again, we have a lot of special coverage planned throughout next week, and Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are going to be a major part of it. Of course, Bloomberg Politics contributors back with us here on our signature panel. Before we get to Kamala Harris's economic plan, Genie, that idea that some members feel a need to boycott. This is going to happen both parties, right every four years for some frontliners who don't want to necessarily be associated with the incumbent. But in this case, it's not really the incumbent. What's up with the protest?

Thank you. We'll meet you there this weekend. And again, we have a lot of special coverage planned throughout next week, and Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are going to be a major part of it. Of course, Bloomberg Politics contributors back with us here on our signature panel. Before we get to Kamala Harris's economic plan, Genie, that idea that some members feel a need to boycott. This is going to happen both parties, right every four years for some frontliners who don't want to necessarily be associated with the incumbent. But in this case, it's not really the incumbent. What's up with the protest?

Yeah, you know, it is fascinating to hear that, and of course Jackie Rosen is the one that surprises me. But I think it's a reflection of the fact how vulnerable Brown and Tester are and Jackie Rosen and how much they realize that they do not want to be associated with the DNC at this point in these dates where the DNC, particularly on its economic record, is not particularly popular. Even though with the switch to Kamala Harris it has become more popular. You could say, it still isn't enough to get these folks there. They're just not willing to take a chance. But just fascinating that they are going to be boycotting, or let's say they're going to be spending their time in their states where they're needed.

Yeah, you know, it is fascinating to hear that, and of course Jackie Rosen is the one that surprises me. But I think it's a reflection of the fact how vulnerable Brown and Tester are and Jackie Rosen and how much they realize that they do not want to be associated with the DNC at this point in these dates where the DNC, particularly on its economic record, is not particularly popular. Even though with the switch to Kamala Harris it has become more popular. You could say, it still isn't enough to get these folks there. They're just not willing to take a chance. But just fascinating that they are going to be boycotting, or let's say they're going to be spending their time in their states where they're needed.

Well, I guess that's right, Rick, You've dealt with this, You've actually run a convention. Is that just part of the game. You know that they're going to be certain members of the conference who can't be associated with the program you're putting together, and that's okay with you because you also want them to win.

Well, I guess that's right, Rick, You've dealt with this, You've actually run a convention. Is that just part of the game. You know that they're going to be certain members of the conference who can't be associated with the program you're putting together, and that's okay with you because you also want them to win.

Yeah, for sure. Look, I mean, if you're not on the podium during the course of the week, and you're a member of Congress or Senate or whatnot, and you've got a race to run, you really got to wonder what am I going to do for four days. You can't fund raise there because it's in competition with the ticket. You can come to Bloomberg and talk to us. We'll take you. But outside of that, you know, you're twidling your thumbs and you know, saying hi to people and drinking and eating too much. So the reality is there's a lot of other things to do in the Democratic Party and Republican Party and going to their conventions. And by the way, no one's ever going to say, gee, we missed you. There's plenty to keep people busy doing, so.

Yeah, for sure. Look, I mean, if you're not on the podium during the course of the week, and you're a member of Congress or Senate or whatnot, and you've got a race to run, you really got to wonder what am I going to do for four days. You can't fund raise there because it's in competition with the ticket. You can come to Bloomberg and talk to us. We'll take you. But outside of that, you know, you're twidling your thumbs and you know, saying hi to people and drinking and eating too much. So the reality is there's a lot of other things to do in the Democratic Party and Republican Party and going to their conventions. And by the way, no one's ever going to say, gee, we missed you. There's plenty to keep people busy doing, so.

Er really much to do about nothing. M hmm. I want to get into the plan here, because we're going to not only get a speech today on the economy by Kamala Harris, but it's going to resonate next week. It will surely be part of her acceptance speech on Thursday night, we'll hear her surrogates putting this forward. Jeanie Rick took an initial swing at some of these ideas. We've got three big buckets. As I mentioned, we're going to hear about today tax credits, and that's specifically the child tax credit, of course, but some other new credit for child as low wage workers, increasing subsidies for those who purchase insurance on federal health exchanges. Then you've got homeowner assistants incentives here also a plan to boost home construction, as we learned today that construction fell to the lowest level since May of twenty twenty. That's where the market is stuck in the mud. And then price controls the matter of inflation, grocery prices, the ban as she will propose on price gouging. Rick asked a pretty important question though here, Jennie, where is the language, Where is the proposal to cut government spending?

Er really much to do about nothing. M hmm. I want to get into the plan here, because we're going to not only get a speech today on the economy by Kamala Harris, but it's going to resonate next week. It will surely be part of her acceptance speech on Thursday night, we'll hear her surrogates putting this forward. Jeanie Rick took an initial swing at some of these ideas. We've got three big buckets. As I mentioned, we're going to hear about today tax credits, and that's specifically the child tax credit, of course, but some other new credit for child as low wage workers, increasing subsidies for those who purchase insurance on federal health exchanges. Then you've got homeowner assistants incentives here also a plan to boost home construction, as we learned today that construction fell to the lowest level since May of twenty twenty. That's where the market is stuck in the mud. And then price controls the matter of inflation, grocery prices, the ban as she will propose on price gouging. Rick asked a pretty important question though here, Jennie, where is the language, Where is the proposal to cut government spending?

I think what we will hear and I don't know if we'll hear it today on this point, but certainly going forward, is that she would like to raise taxes on the ultra wealthy. They also would like to ensure that the IRS is collecting taxes, and that is something that Biden administration put forward that Republicans balked up. So I think they are going to have information on how they will pay for this. But you know, if you look across Democrats and Republicans, quite frankly, pay for is on any of this is a huge shortcoming. Okay, yesterday with Donald Trump talking, he's talking about lowering taxes, but he never talks about how he is going to pay for what is coming down the pike. And one thing I think that we can all agree on is that even if Donald Trump wins, even if Kamala Harris wins, we are going to see a growth in federal spending that is almost certain, and nobody is going to say how to pay for it in any way that makes economists feel good about these plans. So I think it's a deficit on both sides. I do think she'll talk about raising taxes on the wealthy, but it's not going to cover the spending that they're talking about for sure, and it's a problem.

I think what we will hear and I don't know if we'll hear it today on this point, but certainly going forward, is that she would like to raise taxes on the ultra wealthy. They also would like to ensure that the IRS is collecting taxes, and that is something that Biden administration put forward that Republicans balked up. So I think they are going to have information on how they will pay for this. But you know, if you look across Democrats and Republicans, quite frankly, pay for is on any of this is a huge shortcoming. Okay, yesterday with Donald Trump talking, he's talking about lowering taxes, but he never talks about how he is going to pay for what is coming down the pike. And one thing I think that we can all agree on is that even if Donald Trump wins, even if Kamala Harris wins, we are going to see a growth in federal spending that is almost certain, and nobody is going to say how to pay for it in any way that makes economists feel good about these plans. So I think it's a deficit on both sides. I do think she'll talk about raising taxes on the wealthy, but it's not going to cover the spending that they're talking about for sure, and it's a problem.

So pay fors, I guess wouldn't be necessarily part of an economic policy address. Rick, does she need to identify at some point, if not today, how indeed would pay for these or nobody cares about this anymore. We'll get religion on debt and deficits some other time.

So pay fors, I guess wouldn't be necessarily part of an economic policy address. Rick, does she need to identify at some point, if not today, how indeed would pay for these or nobody cares about this anymore. We'll get religion on debt and deficits some other time.

Yeah, And presidential campaigns in the past you had to show your pay for us, right, I mean, like the press would kill you if you said, oh, I'm going to cut taxes for middle class and you know, but you didn't say how you're going to actually fill that budget gap or you know, I need to reduce spending in some way. Where's it going to come out of?

Yeah, And presidential campaigns in the past you had to show your pay for us, right, I mean, like the press would kill you if you said, oh, I'm going to cut taxes for middle class and you know, but you didn't say how you're going to actually fill that budget gap or you know, I need to reduce spending in some way. Where's it going to come out of?

Right?

Right?

What programs are going to get cut?

What programs are going to get cut?

Yeah, we.

Yeah, we.

Add to the fabric of overspending because we don't hold these politicians feet to the fire. I mean both Trump and Harrison and Frankly Biden too. I mean like these are these are back to back administrations that spent over six to seven to eight trillion dollars a year, massive increases in spending. We are now in the post COVID era. It's time to pay back the dividend. And nothing will bring inflation down, nothing will squeeze the prices for consumers more than if the government tightens their belt first. And so before we start going after corporations, before we start giving away brebs. You know, twenty five thousand dollars anybody wants to buy a house, where's that coming from?

Add to the fabric of overspending because we don't hold these politicians feet to the fire. I mean both Trump and Harrison and Frankly Biden too. I mean like these are these are back to back administrations that spent over six to seven to eight trillion dollars a year, massive increases in spending. We are now in the post COVID era. It's time to pay back the dividend. And nothing will bring inflation down, nothing will squeeze the prices for consumers more than if the government tightens their belt first. And so before we start going after corporations, before we start giving away brebs. You know, twenty five thousand dollars anybody wants to buy a house, where's that coming from?

Is that my twenty five thousand dollars?

Is that my twenty five thousand dollars?

A taxpayer?

A taxpayer?

I'd like to know, right, But that's no different than making the Trump tax cuts permanent.

I'd like to know, right, But that's no different than making the Trump tax cuts permanent.

Right.

Right.

Nobody seems to care on either campaign how to pay for any of these.

Nobody seems to care on either campaign how to pay for any of these.

Things, same exact thing. Neither one of these candidates are asked the question after their press conference, where's the money coming from?

Things, same exact thing. Neither one of these candidates are asked the question after their press conference, where's the money coming from?

My Twitter notifications ought to be roughly equally balanced, I think today, Genie, I know I'm striking it right when I get hate from both sides of the aisle here, is it not deserved this criticism for both candidates.

My Twitter notifications ought to be roughly equally balanced, I think today, Genie, I know I'm striking it right when I get hate from both sides of the aisle here, is it not deserved this criticism for both candidates.

It absolutely is. And you know, and by the way, Joe Matthew, nobody could hate you, So I reject that proposition, but you know, it's got to know me. Yet it's absolutely true that this is both science and the reality is it's the American voter, all of us who are to blame for this, because these politicians are doing what they think will get us to support them. And it is not a popular thing to stand up and say, we have Social Security is going to be insolvent, so we're going to take that on. So, you know, we have to.

It absolutely is. And you know, and by the way, Joe Matthew, nobody could hate you, So I reject that proposition, but you know, it's got to know me. Yet it's absolutely true that this is both science and the reality is it's the American voter, all of us who are to blame for this, because these politicians are doing what they think will get us to support them. And it is not a popular thing to stand up and say, we have Social Security is going to be insolvent, so we're going to take that on. So, you know, we have to.

Look at our wish I had a chance to ask jean Spurling about it, Jeanie Shanz no, Rick Davis, Thank you, great panel. The speech, by the way a little over an hour away, Kamala Harris, you'll hear it live right here on Bloomberg CV and Radio.

Look at our wish I had a chance to ask jean Spurling about it, Jeanie Shanz no, Rick Davis, Thank you, great panel. The speech, by the way a little over an hour away, Kamala Harris, you'll hear it live right here on Bloomberg CV and Radio.

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Welcome to the Friday edition Indeed of Balance of Power. You're almost there the threshold of the weekend, with some important economic data to digest before you get on that plane to Chicago. I'll meet you there. But housing is in the air today, and so is consumer sentiment, Rick Davis's favorite political poll. They both tell a slightly different story here. Housing is just as stubborn as can be, with construction falling to the lowest level since May of twenty twenty. Remember what you were doing in May of twenty twenty. Not a good time for the housing market. And Kamala Harris's going to be talking about ways to potentially unlock some opportunity there when she speaks later today. But this is a very difficult scenario we're looking at ahead of potential interest rate cuts next month. The other, as I mentioned, though, a bit rosier. Consumer sentiment rising for the first time in five months, and it's partly due to the fact, as researchers found that Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and consumers are feeling a little more optimistic about things. Just two weeks after we were hearing the R word again in Washington and on Wall The markets have done a wild round trip since then, and we wanted to compare notes with our friend David Weston to get a sense of just where we are. Of course, the host of Bloomberg Wall Street Week, he is with us live at World Headquarters in New York. David remarkable here to see consumer sentiment jumping with this political evolution happening as the backdrop. We saw immediate changes in moods when Joe Biden decided to drop out of the race.

Welcome to the Friday edition Indeed of Balance of Power. You're almost there the threshold of the weekend, with some important economic data to digest before you get on that plane to Chicago. I'll meet you there. But housing is in the air today, and so is consumer sentiment, Rick Davis's favorite political poll. They both tell a slightly different story here. Housing is just as stubborn as can be, with construction falling to the lowest level since May of twenty twenty. Remember what you were doing in May of twenty twenty. Not a good time for the housing market. And Kamala Harris's going to be talking about ways to potentially unlock some opportunity there when she speaks later today. But this is a very difficult scenario we're looking at ahead of potential interest rate cuts next month. The other, as I mentioned, though, a bit rosier. Consumer sentiment rising for the first time in five months, and it's partly due to the fact, as researchers found that Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and consumers are feeling a little more optimistic about things. Just two weeks after we were hearing the R word again in Washington and on Wall The markets have done a wild round trip since then, and we wanted to compare notes with our friend David Weston to get a sense of just where we are. Of course, the host of Bloomberg Wall Street Week, he is with us live at World Headquarters in New York. David remarkable here to see consumer sentiment jumping with this political evolution happening as the backdrop. We saw immediate changes in moods when Joe Biden decided to drop out of the race.

How about it, Well, how about it, Joe? Exactly right. I mean, the markets are all breathing a very big sigh of relief. It had kind of topps each every time you have to wonder whether the Kamala Harris campaign isn't as well because, as you say, it wasn't that long ago all the banks were taking back out there recession estimates, right and revising you again. We were talking about it again. Yeah, but right now it doesn't look like it's going that way, which they've got to be pretty happy about. And on the housing front, it did strike me. Do we have Kamala Harris trying to outdo Oprah Winfrey instead of you got a car, you get a hard house. Anybody you got a house, you get a house, you get a house.

How about it, Well, how about it, Joe? Exactly right. I mean, the markets are all breathing a very big sigh of relief. It had kind of topps each every time you have to wonder whether the Kamala Harris campaign isn't as well because, as you say, it wasn't that long ago all the banks were taking back out there recession estimates, right and revising you again. We were talking about it again. Yeah, but right now it doesn't look like it's going that way, which they've got to be pretty happy about. And on the housing front, it did strike me. Do we have Kamala Harris trying to outdo Oprah Winfrey instead of you got a car, you get a hard house. Anybody you got a house, you get a house, you get a house.

It's pretty reach under your seat, David, Yeah, exactly.

It's pretty reach under your seat, David, Yeah, exactly.

It's that time of the season, isn't it that we've seen in elections, Joe, where basically the candidates, both for both sides are just tell us, boy, we're gonna have everything with them. You know, chicken in every pot. Wasn't that what they used to say?

It's that time of the season, isn't it that we've seen in elections, Joe, where basically the candidates, both for both sides are just tell us, boy, we're gonna have everything with them. You know, chicken in every pot. Wasn't that what they used to say?

Yes, sure, now I think it's a pot in every chicken depending on the state you're talking about. So to your point, she's going to offer as much as twenty five thousand dollars for first time home buyers. More than a million first time home buyers with a two year history of on time rent payments would be eligible. First, what they're calling down payment support. But how do you pay for that?

Yes, sure, now I think it's a pot in every chicken depending on the state you're talking about. So to your point, she's going to offer as much as twenty five thousand dollars for first time home buyers. More than a million first time home buyers with a two year history of on time rent payments would be eligible. First, what they're calling down payment support. But how do you pay for that?

Well, that's the big question. Although I must say, Joe, I haven't heard either parties who particularly concerned about how to pay for anything lately, right, I mean, we can do almost anything to borrow more money, even as the economists tell us at some point there's gonna be a piper to pay here. But thus far nobody seems too concerned about it. And it'll be curious, actually, I'll be curious after the election to see whether there are economic strategists and polyp sey makers on one side to the other, whoever gets to be president, who actually starts to deal with some of this stuff, and whether the bond market makes them deal with some of it, which is entirely possible.

Well, that's the big question. Although I must say, Joe, I haven't heard either parties who particularly concerned about how to pay for anything lately, right, I mean, we can do almost anything to borrow more money, even as the economists tell us at some point there's gonna be a piper to pay here. But thus far nobody seems too concerned about it. And it'll be curious, actually, I'll be curious after the election to see whether there are economic strategists and polyp sey makers on one side to the other, whoever gets to be president, who actually starts to deal with some of this stuff, and whether the bond market makes them deal with some of it, which is entirely possible.

You're right. Look, these two campaigns have a lot in common when it comes to not showing how to pay for things you consider extending or making permanent. The Trump tax cuts, for instance, never mind no tips on or taxes on tips. Miami Guinness would tell you that costs two hundred billion dollars right off the top there, But nobody wants to talk about numbers and no.

You're right. Look, these two campaigns have a lot in common when it comes to not showing how to pay for things you consider extending or making permanent. The Trump tax cuts, for instance, never mind no tips on or taxes on tips. Miami Guinness would tell you that costs two hundred billion dollars right off the top there, But nobody wants to talk about numbers and no.

Tax, no text on social Security, and by the way, let's up the child tax credit to five thousand dollars. It all sounds very good. At the same time, we did talk to an economis or prominent economists. He's Jan Hatiis. He's the chief econdoms for Globin Sax Today for Wall Street Week, and we asked him about that chance of recession and he tied it right back. Actually, the uncertainty coming out of the presidential elections. This is part of why he said he has a somewhat, not highly, but a somewhat elevated chance of recession because of that election.

Tax, no text on social Security, and by the way, let's up the child tax credit to five thousand dollars. It all sounds very good. At the same time, we did talk to an economis or prominent economists. He's Jan Hatiis. He's the chief econdoms for Globin Sax Today for Wall Street Week, and we asked him about that chance of recession and he tied it right back. Actually, the uncertainty coming out of the presidential elections. This is part of why he said he has a somewhat, not highly, but a somewhat elevated chance of recession because of that election.

The way I think about it is that fifteen percent is the long term average. We've had one recession every seven years in the post war period, and you know, conceivably there can be points in the business cycle where you might want to say the twelve month forward probability is less than fifteen percent, because inflation has been beaten and aggurate demands still seems to be growing at a decent pace, the Fed is lowering interest rates. I'd be reluctant, though, given the political uncertainty and the uncertainty around economic policy, to go significantly below fifteen percent, even if everything else sort of looks on track, just because there are significant uncertainties around tariff policy, around tax policy, and just around you know a number of political issues, geopolitical issues that are also of course an important factor and will be affected by, you know, what a new administration does.

The way I think about it is that fifteen percent is the long term average. We've had one recession every seven years in the post war period, and you know, conceivably there can be points in the business cycle where you might want to say the twelve month forward probability is less than fifteen percent, because inflation has been beaten and aggurate demands still seems to be growing at a decent pace, the Fed is lowering interest rates. I'd be reluctant, though, given the political uncertainty and the uncertainty around economic policy, to go significantly below fifteen percent, even if everything else sort of looks on track, just because there are significant uncertainties around tariff policy, around tax policy, and just around you know a number of political issues, geopolitical issues that are also of course an important factor and will be affected by, you know, what a new administration does.

So, Joe, they have jan Hatziis from Globin's Hacks, And it turns out that we up here in New York are paying attention to what you're doing down there in Washington. There's a certain amount of uncertainty around things like trade balls and geopolitics. So it does make a difference to Wall Street after.

So, Joe, they have jan Hatziis from Globin's Hacks, And it turns out that we up here in New York are paying attention to what you're doing down there in Washington. There's a certain amount of uncertainty around things like trade balls and geopolitics. So it does make a difference to Wall Street after.

All, paying attention with great trepidation. Look, he made big news, David. This is an important conversation when he increased recession ads to twenty five percent from fifteen. That was a scary moment two weeks ago. We've basically round tripped since then. So Wall Street doesn't seem to be concerned about it. What is the market telling us.

All, paying attention with great trepidation. Look, he made big news, David. This is an important conversation when he increased recession ads to twenty five percent from fifteen. That was a scary moment two weeks ago. We've basically round tripped since then. So Wall Street doesn't seem to be concerned about it. What is the market telling us.

Well, you know how Wall Street works. They were concerned. They got over it right quick, and even that Monday, we could go Monday when everybody was so concerned about an emergency FED rate cut. You remember there were people putting pretty good odds of that the thing that people, I think we're not folcus on that now they do talk about is the markets were functioning just fine. They weren't freezing up, and in fact, the bond market was doing just fine, and so it was it was a puzzle to me why the FED would step in in that circumstance. As far as I know, part of the mandate for the FED is not to make sure I don't lose money on a stock that I paid too much for. You know, it seemed like whilst she was saying, boy, you should bare me out, Jerome Poll, I paid too much for the stock. I'm like, I might lose some money here. That's not very fun.

Well, you know how Wall Street works. They were concerned. They got over it right quick, and even that Monday, we could go Monday when everybody was so concerned about an emergency FED rate cut. You remember there were people putting pretty good odds of that the thing that people, I think we're not folcus on that now they do talk about is the markets were functioning just fine. They weren't freezing up, and in fact, the bond market was doing just fine, and so it was it was a puzzle to me why the FED would step in in that circumstance. As far as I know, part of the mandate for the FED is not to make sure I don't lose money on a stock that I paid too much for. You know, it seemed like whilst she was saying, boy, you should bare me out, Jerome Poll, I paid too much for the stock. I'm like, I might lose some money here. That's not very fun.

Doesn't exactly work that way, but it certainly doesn't look like a recession in the cards when you look at this market. Some of the data might argue with that, but that's also in part why we have David Weston. Aren't you in the perfect spot right now? Truly at the intersection of politics and the economy, which is why Bloomberg Wall Street Week is so important and such a great part of the conversation here every day. David, it's good to see you. We'll look forward to the program six pm Eastern time, Wall Street Time here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. David'll see you back here next week. What we'll have to talk about then with the convention in our rearview mirror. But we want to add another voice on the economy here because this is important what's going on right now, and we're about an hour away from Kamala Harris rolling out her economic policy proposals. Lindsay Owens is with us, the executive director of Groundwork Collaborative, former senior economic advisor to Senator Elizabeth Warren. Lindsay has been calling for interest rate cuts by the way since long before July, and she is with us now as we look ahead to September, Lindsay, there's a concern that the Fed has waited too long. I don't know what difference twenty five basis points might have made. But when you look at that housing report today, construction following to falling, I should say, to its lowest level since May of twenty twenty. Are we to believe that Kamala Harris can unfreeze this market with the plan she is going to outline today.

Doesn't exactly work that way, but it certainly doesn't look like a recession in the cards when you look at this market. Some of the data might argue with that, but that's also in part why we have David Weston. Aren't you in the perfect spot right now? Truly at the intersection of politics and the economy, which is why Bloomberg Wall Street Week is so important and such a great part of the conversation here every day. David, it's good to see you. We'll look forward to the program six pm Eastern time, Wall Street Time here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. David'll see you back here next week. What we'll have to talk about then with the convention in our rearview mirror. But we want to add another voice on the economy here because this is important what's going on right now, and we're about an hour away from Kamala Harris rolling out her economic policy proposals. Lindsay Owens is with us, the executive director of Groundwork Collaborative, former senior economic advisor to Senator Elizabeth Warren. Lindsay has been calling for interest rate cuts by the way since long before July, and she is with us now as we look ahead to September, Lindsay, there's a concern that the Fed has waited too long. I don't know what difference twenty five basis points might have made. But when you look at that housing report today, construction following to falling, I should say, to its lowest level since May of twenty twenty. Are we to believe that Kamala Harris can unfreeze this market with the plan she is going to outline today.

Yeah, So we need a few things working in our favor here. First, we absolutely have to see the Federal Reserve take decisive action in September. Fifty basis points, maybe seventy five is actually what the doctor ordered at this point given where the housing market is. But second, we absolutely are going to need to bring incentives online for new construction, and that's exactly what the Vice President is going to lay out this afternoon and her economic which includes at least three million new units. By the way, I am not someone who thinks this is some pie in the sky wish list. As you correctly mentioned, next year, we see key provisions of the Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expiring, which means there's going to be a live legislative tax fight next year. The door is open, there's a moving vehicle. Congress is going to act on the tax code, and what better time to start providing real incentives in the tax code for new construction. So I think this is actually a very feasible, very achievable agenda that the Vice President is planning to lay out later today, and I think it could happen as early as next year.

Yeah, So we need a few things working in our favor here. First, we absolutely have to see the Federal Reserve take decisive action in September. Fifty basis points, maybe seventy five is actually what the doctor ordered at this point given where the housing market is. But second, we absolutely are going to need to bring incentives online for new construction, and that's exactly what the Vice President is going to lay out this afternoon and her economic which includes at least three million new units. By the way, I am not someone who thinks this is some pie in the sky wish list. As you correctly mentioned, next year, we see key provisions of the Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expiring, which means there's going to be a live legislative tax fight next year. The door is open, there's a moving vehicle. Congress is going to act on the tax code, and what better time to start providing real incentives in the tax code for new construction. So I think this is actually a very feasible, very achievable agenda that the Vice President is planning to lay out later today, and I think it could happen as early as next year.

Wow.

Wow.

Fascinating. We're going to hear about a lot of things from Kamala Harris today, not just housing. Grocery prices, but also tax credits, and this is an area of a bit of overlap between these two campaigns. Lindsay, what do you make of a world in which JD. Vance is offering a more generous child tax credit than Kamala Harris.

Fascinating. We're going to hear about a lot of things from Kamala Harris today, not just housing. Grocery prices, but also tax credits, and this is an area of a bit of overlap between these two campaigns. Lindsay, what do you make of a world in which JD. Vance is offering a more generous child tax credit than Kamala Harris.

Look, I think the child tax credit has grown in popularity over the last decade that I've been in Washington and has started to have some bipartisan consensus in support of it. Of course, it was Joe Biden, a Democratic president, who pursued the largest increase in the child tax credit, and I would expect that the Vice president will follow suit, and her campaign has released a few additions and enhancements to the child tax credit that she'll be talking about later today. But both parties, I think understand that child poverty is a policy choice, one that we can easily solve, and by the way, we have the money to solve this. I don't know if you remember, but the Biden Harris budget lays out five trillion dollars in taxes on the wealthy and corporations. That is plenty of pay fors, plenty of money to fund a sizable and significant increase in the child tax credit. Getting cash in family's hands, getting families back onto main street shopping, buying things they need, groceries and the rest.

Look, I think the child tax credit has grown in popularity over the last decade that I've been in Washington and has started to have some bipartisan consensus in support of it. Of course, it was Joe Biden, a Democratic president, who pursued the largest increase in the child tax credit, and I would expect that the Vice president will follow suit, and her campaign has released a few additions and enhancements to the child tax credit that she'll be talking about later today. But both parties, I think understand that child poverty is a policy choice, one that we can easily solve, and by the way, we have the money to solve this. I don't know if you remember, but the Biden Harris budget lays out five trillion dollars in taxes on the wealthy and corporations. That is plenty of pay fors, plenty of money to fund a sizable and significant increase in the child tax credit. Getting cash in family's hands, getting families back onto main street shopping, buying things they need, groceries and the rest.

How do you pay for down payment support of twenty five thousand dollars for one million first time home buyers?

How do you pay for down payment support of twenty five thousand dollars for one million first time home buyers?

Yeah, I mean, look, we've got five trillion in taxes on the wealthy and corporations and the Biden Harris budget, and that's sort of a relative consensus position.