Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Labor Day weekend is now upon us. I'm Kaylee Lions. And of course here in Balance of Power, where we follow politics, we do know that historically it's after Labor Day that we consider summer over, and in then election cycle the sprint toward election day is on. But of course this cycle has been unlike cycles in the past. I think we all know that. Of course, it began as the longest general election campaign in history when both Donald Trump and Joe Biden had their party's nominations locked up after Super Tuesday, and then it got flipped upside down entirely when now almost six weeks ago, Joe Biden left the race and Kamala Harris took the helm as the Democratic nominee. And to just underscore how quickly and how significantly this game has changed since, look to Bloomberg's new polling with Morning Consolt. Of course, looking at the key seven battleground states, in which we find she is up two points on Donald Trump across them, leading him in six of the seven. The seventh Arizona, they are in a dead heat, literally tied. So for more details on this pole, Bloomberg's Gregory Cordy joins me. He spent all of yesterday pouring through the numbers, and of course it is the headlines that stand out here, Gregor, we were looking at four point leads in Nevada and Pennsylvania, which is a mushrooms must win state, and even eight points up in Wisconsin.

Labor Day weekend is now upon us. I'm Kaylee Lions. And of course here in Balance of Power, where we follow politics, we do know that historically it's after Labor Day that we consider summer over, and in then election cycle the sprint toward election day is on. But of course this cycle has been unlike cycles in the past. I think we all know that. Of course, it began as the longest general election campaign in history when both Donald Trump and Joe Biden had their party's nominations locked up after Super Tuesday, and then it got flipped upside down entirely when now almost six weeks ago, Joe Biden left the race and Kamala Harris took the helm as the Democratic nominee. And to just underscore how quickly and how significantly this game has changed since, look to Bloomberg's new polling with Morning Consolt. Of course, looking at the key seven battleground states, in which we find she is up two points on Donald Trump across them, leading him in six of the seven. The seventh Arizona, they are in a dead heat, literally tied. So for more details on this pole, Bloomberg's Gregory Cordy joins me. He spent all of yesterday pouring through the numbers, and of course it is the headlines that stand out here, Gregor, we were looking at four point leads in Nevada and Pennsylvania, which is a mushrooms must win state, and even eight points up in Wisconsin.

Yeah, this is a pretty good poll for Kamala Harris. It builds on what we saw last month when she first entered the race. She's spill on that a little bit one percentage point overall across the seven states, which isn't anything to put too much of an emphasis on. That's within the margin of error. But as you point out, her worst state is the state that she's tied with Donald Trump, and that's Arizona. And then you go all the way up through a number of states that are within the margin of era to Wisconsin, which has always been a good Democratic state. Now it's a solid Democratic state at least as some map looks now and as you point out Pennsylvania, all eyes on that keystone state, which is the keystone to this election. It is what we call the tipping point state. It's hard to imagine either candidate getting to two hundred and seventy electoral votes without winning Pennsylvania, and as of now, Kamala Harris seems to have the edge there well.

Yeah, this is a pretty good poll for Kamala Harris. It builds on what we saw last month when she first entered the race. She's spill on that a little bit one percentage point overall across the seven states, which isn't anything to put too much of an emphasis on. That's within the margin of error. But as you point out, her worst state is the state that she's tied with Donald Trump, and that's Arizona. And then you go all the way up through a number of states that are within the margin of era to Wisconsin, which has always been a good Democratic state. Now it's a solid Democratic state at least as some map looks now and as you point out Pennsylvania, all eyes on that keystone state, which is the keystone to this election. It is what we call the tipping point state. It's hard to imagine either candidate getting to two hundred and seventy electoral votes without winning Pennsylvania, and as of now, Kamala Harris seems to have the edge there well.

And it's not just having the edge in the overall question around who these voters would cast a vote for with president, but also they're thinking on the issues and what issues they trust each of these candidates with, because we're seeing some pretty mark change from what Joe Biden frankly had distrust in that Kamala Sarris seems to have more trust in when it comes to the economy.

And it's not just having the edge in the overall question around who these voters would cast a vote for with president, but also they're thinking on the issues and what issues they trust each of these candidates with, because we're seeing some pretty mark change from what Joe Biden frankly had distrust in that Kamala Sarris seems to have more trust in when it comes to the economy.

That's the most remarkable thing about this poll. We've been doing this tracking poll for a eleven months now, starting last October. We'll do two more in September and this October. But what we saw here is a pretty market break from how voters perceived Joe Biden when he was still in the race and how they're perceiving his vice president Kamala Harris On issue after issue, especially on the economy, Kamala Harris is outperforming where Joe Biden was just two months ago. Voters trust her more on issues like housing costs, on pay raises, unemployment, personal debt like student loans and credit cards, interest rates, on a lot of those things I just mentioned, she's actually polling higher than Donald Trump, and she's narrowing the gap on that all important who do you trust on the inflation question, which voters have told us time and time again is the single most important economic issue, and we're seeing it not just in the economic issues, but in issues like Gaza. We've been talking about how and the Vice President addressed this in her interview last night, whether or not she would make a change in US policy and Gaza. Certainly voter swing state voters and especially Democrats are giving her the benefit of the doubt on that issue. So she's really swipe the slate clean. And I like how you put it. Before we went from the longest presidential election in history to really what's become the shortest. This is a brand new race, and really I think we should just maybe just agreed to let's all forget about Joe Biden. He's still the president of United States. He still asked to governor, right, But from this point forward, it's really Harris versus Trump, and anything any baggage that Joe Biden brought to this race is pretty much gone in the minds of most swing state voters.

That's the most remarkable thing about this poll. We've been doing this tracking poll for a eleven months now, starting last October. We'll do two more in September and this October. But what we saw here is a pretty market break from how voters perceived Joe Biden when he was still in the race and how they're perceiving his vice president Kamala Harris On issue after issue, especially on the economy, Kamala Harris is outperforming where Joe Biden was just two months ago. Voters trust her more on issues like housing costs, on pay raises, unemployment, personal debt like student loans and credit cards, interest rates, on a lot of those things I just mentioned, she's actually polling higher than Donald Trump, and she's narrowing the gap on that all important who do you trust on the inflation question, which voters have told us time and time again is the single most important economic issue, and we're seeing it not just in the economic issues, but in issues like Gaza. We've been talking about how and the Vice President addressed this in her interview last night, whether or not she would make a change in US policy and Gaza. Certainly voter swing state voters and especially Democrats are giving her the benefit of the doubt on that issue. So she's really swipe the slate clean. And I like how you put it. Before we went from the longest presidential election in history to really what's become the shortest. This is a brand new race, and really I think we should just maybe just agreed to let's all forget about Joe Biden. He's still the president of United States. He still asked to governor, right, But from this point forward, it's really Harris versus Trump, and anything any baggage that Joe Biden brought to this race is pretty much gone in the minds of most swing state voters.

Well, that does seem like it may create a strategic problem for Donald Trump, who had spent months going after Joe Biden, specifically in the Biden administration's policies. Is there any good news for the Republican nominee in this Paul.

Well, that does seem like it may create a strategic problem for Donald Trump, who had spent months going after Joe Biden, specifically in the Biden administration's policies. Is there any good news for the Republican nominee in this Paul.

Gregory, Well, Kanal Harris did not get a post convention bounce. That's what we were all looking for. And if we had the traditional rhythms, the traditional ups and downs of a campaign cycle, you would have expected Trump to get a bounce out of his convention and Harris to get a bump out of hers. But remember Trump almost got killed going into his convention, wrote a big high, and then two days after the convention, Joe Biden drops out and permanently changed the race for Kamala Harris. She came into the election with a writing a big wave of enthusiasm. She's still on a sort of honeymoon. So if you're Donald Trump. You're hoping that honeymoon ends. You're hoping that interviews like last night's interview with CNN will somehow find a way to trip Harris up. I didn't hear that happen last night. Certainly, if you're looking for policy detail from her, you probably didn't hear it. But she also probably didn't do herself a whole lot of damage. So now all eyes are on that September tenth debate an ABC in Philadelphia, and that's where Trump is going to try to change the dynamic of this race back again to try to seize the advantage. It's still this race is still on a razor's edge. It's anyone's to win. But at least according to our polling and some other public polling, you'd probably rather be in Vice President Kamala Harris's shoes than in Donald Trump's.

Gregory, Well, Kanal Harris did not get a post convention bounce. That's what we were all looking for. And if we had the traditional rhythms, the traditional ups and downs of a campaign cycle, you would have expected Trump to get a bounce out of his convention and Harris to get a bump out of hers. But remember Trump almost got killed going into his convention, wrote a big high, and then two days after the convention, Joe Biden drops out and permanently changed the race for Kamala Harris. She came into the election with a writing a big wave of enthusiasm. She's still on a sort of honeymoon. So if you're Donald Trump. You're hoping that honeymoon ends. You're hoping that interviews like last night's interview with CNN will somehow find a way to trip Harris up. I didn't hear that happen last night. Certainly, if you're looking for policy detail from her, you probably didn't hear it. But she also probably didn't do herself a whole lot of damage. So now all eyes are on that September tenth debate an ABC in Philadelphia, and that's where Trump is going to try to change the dynamic of this race back again to try to seize the advantage. It's still this race is still on a razor's edge. It's anyone's to win. But at least according to our polling and some other public polling, you'd probably rather be in Vice President Kamala Harris's shoes than in Donald Trump's.

I wonder if she's still going to be trying to paint herself as the underdog now with data life, it can be harder. Yeah, all right, bloombergs Gregory Cordy, thank you so much. Appreciate it, And of course, Gregory leading us right to our next topic of conversation, which is that interview that took place on CNN last night. It was not just Kamala Harris. Tim Wolls was also with her, But of course a lot of the questioning from Dana Bash of CNN was directed towards the vice president and presidential nominee. Here's a sampling of how it went.

I wonder if she's still going to be trying to paint herself as the underdog now with data life, it can be harder. Yeah, all right, bloombergs Gregory Cordy, thank you so much. Appreciate it, And of course, Gregory leading us right to our next topic of conversation, which is that interview that took place on CNN last night. It was not just Kamala Harris. Tim Wolls was also with her, But of course a lot of the questioning from Dana Bash of CNN was directed towards the vice president and presidential nominee. Here's a sampling of how it went.

My agenda includes what we need to do to bring down the price of groceries, for example, dealing with an issue like price gouging. What we need to do to extend the child tax credit to help young families be able to take care of their children in their most formative years. What we need to do to bring down the cost of housing. And I made that clear on the debate station in twenty twenty that I would not banfracking. As vice president, I did not banfracking. As president, I will not banfracking. There should be consequence. We have laws that have to be followed and enforced that address and deal with people who cross our border illegally. And I think it would be to the benefit of the American public to have a member of my cabinet who is a Republican. We have to get a deal done. This war must end INtime, and we must get a deal that is about getting the hostages out. I've met with the families of the American hostages. Let's get the hostages out. Let's get the ceasefire done.

My agenda includes what we need to do to bring down the price of groceries, for example, dealing with an issue like price gouging. What we need to do to extend the child tax credit to help young families be able to take care of their children in their most formative years. What we need to do to bring down the cost of housing. And I made that clear on the debate station in twenty twenty that I would not banfracking. As vice president, I did not banfracking. As president, I will not banfracking. There should be consequence. We have laws that have to be followed and enforced that address and deal with people who cross our border illegally. And I think it would be to the benefit of the American public to have a member of my cabinet who is a Republican. We have to get a deal done. This war must end INtime, and we must get a deal that is about getting the hostages out. I've met with the families of the American hostages. Let's get the hostages out. Let's get the ceasefire done.

The question is, did Kamala Harris change any minds for better or worse with that interview last night? So for an answer to you that, let's turn out to Jane Hall. She is American University Associate professor of Journalism and Media Studies and author of Politics and the Media, Intersections and New Directions. Jane, welcome back to Bloomberg. You are a professor. What greed would you give Kamala Harris when it comes to her interview performance?

The question is, did Kamala Harris change any minds for better or worse with that interview last night? So for an answer to you that, let's turn out to Jane Hall. She is American University Associate professor of Journalism and Media Studies and author of Politics and the Media, Intersections and New Directions. Jane, welcome back to Bloomberg. You are a professor. What greed would you give Kamala Harris when it comes to her interview performance?

You know, I would give her an as I think that she did well. I think that clearly her messaging on the points that she made about the economy, although she didn't start out that way. Danna asked her a question about what would you do day one, which is kind of a kind of a gotcha question. She came back to it and talked about what you had the SoundBite from, and I think that messaging of I will be there for you, I will help you, I will restore the middle class, and these are some specifics she's been hammered over not having enough specifics. She has specifics, and I think she legislated that very well. And I do think also it was very interesting, you know, I'm a student of women and gender issues and politics and media. It was very interesting the way she handled herself, the table, she was at, the fact that Tim wallsh was with her. I noticed Trump said he didn't think she looked like a leader. I think it's because he would have had a crown, you know, he would have had something else. He would have asked for more trappings. And I think that's an interesting choice that she was with him and yet she was in charge. She clearly trying to say it's okay, guys, you know, this is how this can work.

You know, I would give her an as I think that she did well. I think that clearly her messaging on the points that she made about the economy, although she didn't start out that way. Danna asked her a question about what would you do day one, which is kind of a kind of a gotcha question. She came back to it and talked about what you had the SoundBite from, and I think that messaging of I will be there for you, I will help you, I will restore the middle class, and these are some specifics she's been hammered over not having enough specifics. She has specifics, and I think she legislated that very well. And I do think also it was very interesting, you know, I'm a student of women and gender issues and politics and media. It was very interesting the way she handled herself, the table, she was at, the fact that Tim wallsh was with her. I noticed Trump said he didn't think she looked like a leader. I think it's because he would have had a crown, you know, he would have had something else. He would have asked for more trappings. And I think that's an interesting choice that she was with him and yet she was in charge. She clearly trying to say it's okay, guys, you know, this is how this can work.

Well.

Well.

But to the point about this being a joint interview. Them together at the table, they weren't, you know, sitting in typically the soft seating you would kind of see in interviews like this, they had. She had her arms up on the table at many points in the interview, while Tim Walls sat for the most part quietly beside her. He of course didn't feeld as many questions. Do you think his presence there really served a purpose or was it actually detrimental to what Harris may have wanted to accomplish.

But to the point about this being a joint interview. Them together at the table, they weren't, you know, sitting in typically the soft seating you would kind of see in interviews like this, they had. She had her arms up on the table at many points in the interview, while Tim Walls sat for the most part quietly beside her. He of course didn't feeld as many questions. Do you think his presence there really served a purpose or was it actually detrimental to what Harris may have wanted to accomplish.

You know, I think it worked. I think if he had had too many questions, people would have said, why did she need quote unquote to bring him. This is not the first joint interview that has been done. The critics of this have said that this was her first big interview, so why did she bring him? But I think they are counting on the visual framing and the visual messaging that here is a guy who is sitting there and he was deferential to her, and yet when he was asked, you know, when he was pressed on some things, he spoke up. I think it worked. It's interesting, you know, it was a table in a cafe. I'm not sure if I'd been her campaign not to make too much of this, if I had me, if I would have allowed it to be that casual looking. I do think this symbolism does matter, but I think it was good to have him there.

You know, I think it worked. I think if he had had too many questions, people would have said, why did she need quote unquote to bring him. This is not the first joint interview that has been done. The critics of this have said that this was her first big interview, so why did she bring him? But I think they are counting on the visual framing and the visual messaging that here is a guy who is sitting there and he was deferential to her, and yet when he was asked, you know, when he was pressed on some things, he spoke up. I think it worked. It's interesting, you know, it was a table in a cafe. I'm not sure if I'd been her campaign not to make too much of this, if I had me, if I would have allowed it to be that casual looking. I do think this symbolism does matter, but I think it was good to have him there.

Well.

Well.

And it wasn't just a cafe. It was a black owned cafe in Georgia, specifically Jane and on the subject of color. Of course, this is something that Kamala Harris hasn't been super forward with in her candidacy. She hasn't really leaned on the historic nature of being a woman of color who is leading a major party's presidential ticket. And she also didn't really play ball when she was questioned about the way Donald Trump has characterized her racial identity. Let's just remind ourselves of that very brief Q and A last night.

And it wasn't just a cafe. It was a black owned cafe in Georgia, specifically Jane and on the subject of color. Of course, this is something that Kamala Harris hasn't been super forward with in her candidacy. She hasn't really leaned on the historic nature of being a woman of color who is leading a major party's presidential ticket. And she also didn't really play ball when she was questioned about the way Donald Trump has characterized her racial identity. Let's just remind ourselves of that very brief Q and A last night.

He suggested that you happened to turn black recently for political purposes, questioning a core part of your identity.

He suggested that you happened to turn black recently for political purposes, questioning a core part of your identity.

Yeah.

Yeah.

An, he's same, old tired playbook. Next question, please, that's it.

An, he's same, old tired playbook. Next question, please, that's it.

Did not engage with it hardly at all, Jane, what do you make of that strategy?

Did not engage with it hardly at all, Jane, what do you make of that strategy?

You know, I have to say that it's clearly a strategy, and it is apparently clearly the way she feels, in the way she's comported herself her whole life. I think, frankly, it's somewhat risky to not engage at all. I think the hope is, and what I'll be interested to see is what does he do on that debate stage. I mean, you have a split screen in what he has been saying about her in rallies and and what he has been posting. And I would imagine the hope is that women will be so turned off, and Republican women, democratic women are so turned off by his stances on reproductive rights, but also the way he has been trashing her, the way that jd. Vance has said she can go to help over commentary she didn't even do over the cemetery incident. I think it's a strategy, probably the way she has conducted herself. I don't know if you should say I'm never going to talk about it. Women and women of color have to prove their accomplishments, and that is something that she knows and they I think that's what they're leaning on, and they're hoping that he will do the dirty work for her, frankly, be so racist in his commentary and that that will be publicized and that's all she has to do. I frankly would have liked to have seen some sort of a sense of what does it feel like to be the first She was asked about it with that wonderful photograph of her great niece, and in my view, she hesitated a little as to whether she was going to talk about it, you know, the little girl in pigtails looking up. She said she was very moved. But again, I think she has just decided and they've decided we're not going there. I'm not sure that's going to work in the debate, And we'll see what happens in the debate and in terms of what is quoted back to him and what does she need to respond to.

You know, I have to say that it's clearly a strategy, and it is apparently clearly the way she feels, in the way she's comported herself her whole life. I think, frankly, it's somewhat risky to not engage at all. I think the hope is, and what I'll be interested to see is what does he do on that debate stage. I mean, you have a split screen in what he has been saying about her in rallies and and what he has been posting. And I would imagine the hope is that women will be so turned off, and Republican women, democratic women are so turned off by his stances on reproductive rights, but also the way he has been trashing her, the way that jd. Vance has said she can go to help over commentary she didn't even do over the cemetery incident. I think it's a strategy, probably the way she has conducted herself. I don't know if you should say I'm never going to talk about it. Women and women of color have to prove their accomplishments, and that is something that she knows and they I think that's what they're leaning on, and they're hoping that he will do the dirty work for her, frankly, be so racist in his commentary and that that will be publicized and that's all she has to do. I frankly would have liked to have seen some sort of a sense of what does it feel like to be the first She was asked about it with that wonderful photograph of her great niece, and in my view, she hesitated a little as to whether she was going to talk about it, you know, the little girl in pigtails looking up. She said she was very moved. But again, I think she has just decided and they've decided we're not going there. I'm not sure that's going to work in the debate, And we'll see what happens in the debate and in terms of what is quoted back to him and what does she need to respond to.

Well, Gene, might that also depend on whether or not the mics stay hot the whole time or muted like we saw in June between Trump and Biden. ABC's debate rules say the mics will be muted. We don't know yet that the Harris campaign has agreed to that they want them hot.

Well, Gene, might that also depend on whether or not the mics stay hot the whole time or muted like we saw in June between Trump and Biden. ABC's debate rules say the mics will be muted. We don't know yet that the Harris campaign has agreed to that they want them hot.

Well, you know, I think I was on with you all before the debate, and I think I was out there saying I think that the mike's being muted would allow him to uh and also no audience would allow him to stay presidential for you know, and play by the rules literally for the time that was needed. This was for the Biden debate, of course, you know, I think it serves them for him to lose it in a sense, you know, to not stay on policy. Certainly, she's gonna question him about how are you now talking about how you're gonna have free IVF treatments when what you've done is overturn Roe v Wade. I mean, she can go after him on policy, but I think I think it doesn't help her as much as it would help him to have the MIC's muted.

Well, you know, I think I was on with you all before the debate, and I think I was out there saying I think that the mike's being muted would allow him to uh and also no audience would allow him to stay presidential for you know, and play by the rules literally for the time that was needed. This was for the Biden debate, of course, you know, I think it serves them for him to lose it in a sense, you know, to not stay on policy. Certainly, she's gonna question him about how are you now talking about how you're gonna have free IVF treatments when what you've done is overturn Roe v Wade. I mean, she can go after him on policy, but I think I think it doesn't help her as much as it would help him to have the MIC's muted.

Well, I guess we'll see if agreement is reached on that. Finally, Jane, we have less than a minute left. But how are you thinking about the earned media race?

Well, I guess we'll see if agreement is reached on that. Finally, Jane, we have less than a minute left. But how are you thinking about the earned media race?

Here?

Here?

The idea that Donald Trump really dominated that in election cycles. We've seen him comped in in the past, but this kind of feels different, doesn't it.

The idea that Donald Trump really dominated that in election cycles. We've seen him comped in in the past, but this kind of feels different, doesn't it.

Oh, you know, I think that's such a good point. I meant, he didn't have to spend nearly as much because he got incredible free media. She is getting the free media. She that convention was absolutely perfected, perfected to reframe choice and reframe freedom and seize back patriotism. I mean, those are the kind of ads they're doing.

Oh, you know, I think that's such a good point. I meant, he didn't have to spend nearly as much because he got incredible free media. She is getting the free media. She that convention was absolutely perfected, perfected to reframe choice and reframe freedom and seize back patriotism. I mean, those are the kind of ads they're doing.

She's she's she.

She's she's she.

Is handling this very well in terms of media. You know the other thing that I think is interesting in terms of media, she could go do local interviews. I would imagine they are going to do local interviews. I thought Dana did a fine job, but I think I think she's continuing to get a honeymoon in the media too.

Is handling this very well in terms of media. You know the other thing that I think is interesting in terms of media, she could go do local interviews. I would imagine they are going to do local interviews. I thought Dana did a fine job, but I think I think she's continuing to get a honeymoon in the media too.

Well.

Well.

Of course, we're hoping she'll come talk to us, as we're hoping Donald Trump will hear on Bloomberg. Thanks for joining us, Jane Hall of American University, Appreciate your time. We'll be right back.

Of course, we're hoping she'll come talk to us, as we're hoping Donald Trump will hear on Bloomberg. Thanks for joining us, Jane Hall of American University, Appreciate your time. We'll be right back.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and enroyd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and enroyd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.

Happy Friday to everyone, as we marked the last Friday of what I guess we unofficially call summer. It's hard to believe that Labor Day is already upon us, especially considering the summer we have had in American politics. It's been probably unlike any summer in modern American political history. For remember back to Memorial Day, this was still a race the longest general election cycle we'd seen in modern history, between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. By June twenty seventh, that fateful CNN debate between the two where calls started to begin for Joe Biden to drop out of the race, and then, of course, on the eve of the Republican Convention on July thirteenth, Donald Trump was shot in an attempted assassination attempt. Two days later, he announced Jade Vance as his running mate at the RNC, and just days after that ended, on July twenty first, Joe Biden did it. He left the race and endorsed Kamala Harris, who within days had essentially locked up the Democratic nomination. She of course trapped up the convention in Chicago last week with Tim Walls, her running mate, at her side, and in the six weeks and she became the candidate. We have seen a big change in this race, not only in terms of the fundraising game. She's crossed the half a billion dollar threshold as of last week, but she's made traumatic changes in polling as well, doing far better than Joe Biden was at the point he left the race, and gaining gown ground against Donald Trump in some of the key battleground states. That's what our latest pulling indicates. Bloomberg, together with Morning Console, taking a look at those seven swing states and finding Harris ahead of Trump by two points on average across them. So for more on that, let's turn to Elioakley Morning consoles US politics analyst who joins us every poll period. We've of course had eleven of these at this point, Eli, so we're getting used to talking to you. Thank you for being here on this Friday. Of course, we're within the margin of error in a number of these states. Not so in Wisconsin though, where she's up eight points. But broadly this paints a picture of a wider map for Harris.

Happy Friday to everyone, as we marked the last Friday of what I guess we unofficially call summer. It's hard to believe that Labor Day is already upon us, especially considering the summer we have had in American politics. It's been probably unlike any summer in modern American political history. For remember back to Memorial Day, this was still a race the longest general election cycle we'd seen in modern history, between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. By June twenty seventh, that fateful CNN debate between the two where calls started to begin for Joe Biden to drop out of the race, and then, of course, on the eve of the Republican Convention on July thirteenth, Donald Trump was shot in an attempted assassination attempt. Two days later, he announced Jade Vance as his running mate at the RNC, and just days after that ended, on July twenty first, Joe Biden did it. He left the race and endorsed Kamala Harris, who within days had essentially locked up the Democratic nomination. She of course trapped up the convention in Chicago last week with Tim Walls, her running mate, at her side, and in the six weeks and she became the candidate. We have seen a big change in this race, not only in terms of the fundraising game. She's crossed the half a billion dollar threshold as of last week, but she's made traumatic changes in polling as well, doing far better than Joe Biden was at the point he left the race, and gaining gown ground against Donald Trump in some of the key battleground states. That's what our latest pulling indicates. Bloomberg, together with Morning Console, taking a look at those seven swing states and finding Harris ahead of Trump by two points on average across them. So for more on that, let's turn to Elioakley Morning consoles US politics analyst who joins us every poll period. We've of course had eleven of these at this point, Eli, so we're getting used to talking to you. Thank you for being here on this Friday. Of course, we're within the margin of error in a number of these states. Not so in Wisconsin though, where she's up eight points. But broadly this paints a picture of a wider map for Harris.

Yeah, are much better for Kamala Harris than they were for Joe Biden. That sounds almost obvious to say, but your explanation of what happened this summer is right. I mean, it was a dramatic shift in the American political landscape, and voters noticed Kamala Harris is on better footing than Joe Biden ever was across every single one of these states. That's the good news for Democrats. The challenge for them, the advantage or the possibility for Trump maybe is the fact that a lot of these states are really really close. I mean, Arizona's tied, George is basically tied, Michigan's close, North Carolina and Nevada are pretty close. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Kamala Harris looks to be in an okay position, but those are also tight races. This contest isn't over. Maybe it was over before Joe Biden left the race, but that's what's changed in the last few weeks.

Yeah, are much better for Kamala Harris than they were for Joe Biden. That sounds almost obvious to say, but your explanation of what happened this summer is right. I mean, it was a dramatic shift in the American political landscape, and voters noticed Kamala Harris is on better footing than Joe Biden ever was across every single one of these states. That's the good news for Democrats. The challenge for them, the advantage or the possibility for Trump maybe is the fact that a lot of these states are really really close. I mean, Arizona's tied, George is basically tied, Michigan's close, North Carolina and Nevada are pretty close. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Kamala Harris looks to be in an okay position, but those are also tight races. This contest isn't over. Maybe it was over before Joe Biden left the race, but that's what's changed in the last few weeks.

This is a real race, yeah, which indicates that it's going to be a rough and tumble for the next sixty something Daisy Lie leading up to election day. When we consider though, the idea that even though these are still incredibly tight margin, she is out pulling where Joe Biden was. What do we attribute that to? Is this Democratic voters who are more likely to turn out for a different candidate. Is this independence who seem to have been swayed from being potentially a double hater to at least tolerating her. Is this other demographics like black voters, Latinos. What does the breakdown of the data show us.

This is a real race, yeah, which indicates that it's going to be a rough and tumble for the next sixty something Daisy Lie leading up to election day. When we consider though, the idea that even though these are still incredibly tight margin, she is out pulling where Joe Biden was. What do we attribute that to? Is this Democratic voters who are more likely to turn out for a different candidate. Is this independence who seem to have been swayed from being potentially a double hater to at least tolerating her. Is this other demographics like black voters, Latinos. What does the breakdown of the data show us.

It's all the above. I mean, look, Joe Biden's problem in when he was in the contest was he was not performing as well with his own twenty twenty voters as Donald Trump was. Kamala Harris has reversed that. We're seeing what everybody's calling a vibes shift. Happened in this contest, and one of the questions we asked in this survey kind of underscores that we asked voters if they were voting. We asked Democratic presidential candidate supporters if they were voting for the candidate or against Trump. And when we asked about Harris this time around, they were fifteen points more likely across the swing stave map to ascribe that positive motivator to their vote than they were to Biden when we ask asked back in April, we were all of our Democratic National Convention in Chicago. We saw the energy in that room of core activist supporters, but you know, we're seeing that across the country. She was down in southern Georgia. There were lines in that rural community around the Blox trying to go see her. Clearly, something is happening there. She's getting so much positive media attention that is breaking through to the public. I mean, we've not necessarily seen a convention bump, and that's probably because she got her bump already when she launched her campaign after Joe Biden dropped out.

It's all the above. I mean, look, Joe Biden's problem in when he was in the contest was he was not performing as well with his own twenty twenty voters as Donald Trump was. Kamala Harris has reversed that. We're seeing what everybody's calling a vibes shift. Happened in this contest, and one of the questions we asked in this survey kind of underscores that we asked voters if they were voting. We asked Democratic presidential candidate supporters if they were voting for the candidate or against Trump. And when we asked about Harris this time around, they were fifteen points more likely across the swing stave map to ascribe that positive motivator to their vote than they were to Biden when we ask asked back in April, we were all of our Democratic National Convention in Chicago. We saw the energy in that room of core activist supporters, but you know, we're seeing that across the country. She was down in southern Georgia. There were lines in that rural community around the Blox trying to go see her. Clearly, something is happening there. She's getting so much positive media attention that is breaking through to the public. I mean, we've not necessarily seen a convention bump, and that's probably because she got her bump already when she launched her campaign after Joe Biden dropped out.

Well fair enough, maybe she already peaked, if you will, But it does seem that at least that peak has turned into a plateau rather than something that has gone back down the hill. Eli, I also want to zero in on the findings here regarding the economy and specific economic issues, including help for the middle class and housing. Where it's not just that Harris is doing better than Joe Biden was on those issues, she is out pulling Donald Trump. What do you make of that? And where within the kind of economic indicators is Donald Trump still clearly ahead, knowing he has been trying hard to campaign on this issue.

Well fair enough, maybe she already peaked, if you will, But it does seem that at least that peak has turned into a plateau rather than something that has gone back down the hill. Eli, I also want to zero in on the findings here regarding the economy and specific economic issues, including help for the middle class and housing. Where it's not just that Harris is doing better than Joe Biden was on those issues, she is out pulling Donald Trump. What do you make of that? And where within the kind of economic indicators is Donald Trump still clearly ahead, knowing he has been trying hard to campaign on this issue.

Well, I mean, the biggest thing going for Donald Trump is the fact that the voter's perceptions of how the economy is performing haven't really changed very much. I mean, when Joe Biden was in the race, seventy two percent said it was on the wrong track. Now sixty nine percent say that the folks who see prices as increasing across the swing state map have not improved. That's clearly an advantage for Donald Trump. What Kamala Harris has seen, she is not totally associated with Joe Biden's being in the White House as one might expect. I mean, she has seen her trust over Donald Trump in a better place than Joe Biden's was when it comes to the economy, I think she had Donald Trump's lead on the economy and our swing state tracking. It's not just the economy, by the way, I mean, we're seeing that about every single issue. Voters are much happier about her. They're disassociating her with the negativity that she is they associated with with Joe Biden. You're right about Kamala Harris on issues like housing, that's clearly a good issue for Democrats this year. If Donald Trump can focus on the inflation issue, though, there is wide appetite among the swing side elector for him to talk about that. The problem with his campaign, this has been the problem since he's been on the political stage. He gets sent to side shows. I mean, he spent the week fighting with Arlington National Cemetery this week. That's not going to be a winning message for intelectorate Hungary for answers about.

Well, I mean, the biggest thing going for Donald Trump is the fact that the voter's perceptions of how the economy is performing haven't really changed very much. I mean, when Joe Biden was in the race, seventy two percent said it was on the wrong track. Now sixty nine percent say that the folks who see prices as increasing across the swing state map have not improved. That's clearly an advantage for Donald Trump. What Kamala Harris has seen, she is not totally associated with Joe Biden's being in the White House as one might expect. I mean, she has seen her trust over Donald Trump in a better place than Joe Biden's was when it comes to the economy, I think she had Donald Trump's lead on the economy and our swing state tracking. It's not just the economy, by the way, I mean, we're seeing that about every single issue. Voters are much happier about her. They're disassociating her with the negativity that she is they associated with with Joe Biden. You're right about Kamala Harris on issues like housing, that's clearly a good issue for Democrats this year. If Donald Trump can focus on the inflation issue, though, there is wide appetite among the swing side elector for him to talk about that. The problem with his campaign, this has been the problem since he's been on the political stage. He gets sent to side shows. I mean, he spent the week fighting with Arlington National Cemetery this week. That's not going to be a winning message for intelectorate Hungary for answers about.

Inflation, well, and maybe we'll get more of those answers leading up to the debate or on the debate stage on September tenth. Eli. If we consider the kind of themes we're likely to hear from these candidates, and frankly, we heard Kamala Harris sitting many of these themes, including housing in the middle class. Last night in that interview on CNN. Something else that she has talked a lot about and really dominated the convention in Chicago last week is this idea around freedoms, not just reproductive freedom, but others as well. And it was striking to see here Swing state voters trust her on that issue as well, by a five point margin. This is kind of a departure of the way that Democrats and Republicans usually can lay claim to the freedom issue.

Inflation, well, and maybe we'll get more of those answers leading up to the debate or on the debate stage on September tenth. Eli. If we consider the kind of themes we're likely to hear from these candidates, and frankly, we heard Kamala Harris sitting many of these themes, including housing in the middle class. Last night in that interview on CNN. Something else that she has talked a lot about and really dominated the convention in Chicago last week is this idea around freedoms, not just reproductive freedom, but others as well. And it was striking to see here Swing state voters trust her on that issue as well, by a five point margin. This is kind of a departure of the way that Democrats and Republicans usually can lay claim to the freedom issue.

I know, I spent so much time in the early twenty tens of Tea party rallies talking about freedom with a bunch of conservatives. I think that Kamala Harris has done a lot of work, maybe with Beyonce's help, to try to reclaim the mantle of freedom for the Democratic Party. I think a lot of that discussion has been centered around abortion rights, and that is a big issue for a number of swing state voters. It's not the number one issue for a lot of people, but it is for a number of people those are core kind of Democratic voters, and her advantage on that issue is massive. She leads Trump by twenty one points on that issue that's clearly a good issue for her, and I think we've seen a lot of coverage recently of Donald Trump realizing it's not a good issue for him. I think it's been very clear since the Supreme Court overturns the Roe v. Wade a worship rights that Donald Trump has been not wanting to engage on that issue as much as possible. I think that Democrats. I think that the state of Florida is going to make it where he's going to have to. And I think that's going to be a topic of discussion at the debate where we're really going to see some news developed.

I know, I spent so much time in the early twenty tens of Tea party rallies talking about freedom with a bunch of conservatives. I think that Kamala Harris has done a lot of work, maybe with Beyonce's help, to try to reclaim the mantle of freedom for the Democratic Party. I think a lot of that discussion has been centered around abortion rights, and that is a big issue for a number of swing state voters. It's not the number one issue for a lot of people, but it is for a number of people those are core kind of Democratic voters, and her advantage on that issue is massive. She leads Trump by twenty one points on that issue that's clearly a good issue for her, and I think we've seen a lot of coverage recently of Donald Trump realizing it's not a good issue for him. I think it's been very clear since the Supreme Court overturns the Roe v. Wade a worship rights that Donald Trump has been not wanting to engage on that issue as much as possible. I think that Democrats. I think that the state of Florida is going to make it where he's going to have to. And I think that's going to be a topic of discussion at the debate where we're really going to see some news developed.

Yeah, Donald Trump not really ready with an answer yet as to how exactly he's voting on that six week abortion issue in Florida, where of course he will be casting his vote. I do want to ask finally, Eli, because we've talked a lot about the people leading the ticket, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, but they do have running mates who have been out there. Tim Walls was with her in that interview on CNN last night. This of course is a poll done now that we know that he is running beside her, how is Walls factoring into the calculus for Harris and Jade Vance for Trump for that matter.

Yeah, Donald Trump not really ready with an answer yet as to how exactly he's voting on that six week abortion issue in Florida, where of course he will be casting his vote. I do want to ask finally, Eli, because we've talked a lot about the people leading the ticket, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, but they do have running mates who have been out there. Tim Walls was with her in that interview on CNN last night. This of course is a poll done now that we know that he is running beside her, how is Walls factoring into the calculus for Harris and Jade Vance for Trump for that matter.

Well, Tim Walls is very popular. I think Kamala Harris, who's also very popular, more popular than Joe Biden or Donald Trum have been since we started tracking this back in twenty twenty two. Tim Walls pretty much matches her popularity. I think that makes him a very good campaign asset. And it's with all sorts of groups. It's with men, it's with women, it's Withers or colors with white people. Tim Wallas is a good asset. Jady Vance, I don't know how much his candidacy probably matters here. I mean, Donald Trump steals the show. It is a Trump show when they're out and about. The little asides get a lot of attention online. Some of his Jady Vance's campaign missteps, I don't know that those are going to like rock the world here, given that Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket. But on the other side of the ballot, I mean, Kamala Harris found a good running mate who can be an asset on the campaign trail, and Governor Tim Walls.

Well, Tim Walls is very popular. I think Kamala Harris, who's also very popular, more popular than Joe Biden or Donald Trum have been since we started tracking this back in twenty twenty two. Tim Walls pretty much matches her popularity. I think that makes him a very good campaign asset. And it's with all sorts of groups. It's with men, it's with women, it's Withers or colors with white people. Tim Wallas is a good asset. Jady Vance, I don't know how much his candidacy probably matters here. I mean, Donald Trump steals the show. It is a Trump show when they're out and about. The little asides get a lot of attention online. Some of his Jady Vance's campaign missteps, I don't know that those are going to like rock the world here, given that Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket. But on the other side of the ballot, I mean, Kamala Harris found a good running mate who can be an asset on the campaign trail, and Governor Tim Walls.

All right, and we expect we'll hear more from both of them, like we did last night. Throughout the course of the next sixty some days. Same goes for Donald Trump and Jadie Vance. And we'll be hearing, of course, more from Elio Oakley. I'm sure we still have two polls to go this election cycle will have We're in September, in October, Elioakley of Morning Consult, thank you so much for joining me, and I'll be joined now by our political panel. I want to get some more reaction to this data. Genie Shanzo is with me. She's political science professor at Iona University and Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Together to get today with Lisa Kamussa Miller, former RNC communications director and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Lisa, just to come to you on that ending note there the idea of the role that the vice presidential candidates, the running mates are playing here now that we are more than a month out from the selection of JD. Vance, we're only weeks out at this point from the selection of Tim Walls. How do you view whether or not they're adding or detracting to the tickets they're representing.

All right, and we expect we'll hear more from both of them, like we did last night. Throughout the course of the next sixty some days. Same goes for Donald Trump and Jadie Vance. And we'll be hearing, of course, more from Elio Oakley. I'm sure we still have two polls to go this election cycle will have We're in September, in October, Elioakley of Morning Consult, thank you so much for joining me, and I'll be joined now by our political panel. I want to get some more reaction to this data. Genie Shanzo is with me. She's political science professor at Iona University and Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Together to get today with Lisa Kamussa Miller, former RNC communications director and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Lisa, just to come to you on that ending note there the idea of the role that the vice presidential candidates, the running mates are playing here now that we are more than a month out from the selection of JD. Vance, we're only weeks out at this point from the selection of Tim Walls. How do you view whether or not they're adding or detracting to the tickets they're representing.

You know, it's interesting to me for both sides. Really Donald Trump and what was just what you all were just discussing is absolutely true. Donald Trump is Donald Trump, and he is probably bigger than life in all of those circumstances.

You know, it's interesting to me for both sides. Really Donald Trump and what was just what you all were just discussing is absolutely true. Donald Trump is Donald Trump, and he is probably bigger than life in all of those circumstances.

So jd.

So jd.

Vance, while not really making very much of an impact one way where the other not necessarily detracting from him because people are really voting for Trump. But on the Democrat side, it's actually quite interesting. I think that what's interesting to me as we look at this ticket is that we're getting to know both of these candidates at the very same time. And Tim Walls is very likable as it relates to just the way he he approaches the audiences and the groups that he's connecting with, the people that he's speaking with. He's very authentic. And that is the difference between those two number two candidates is that JD. Vance, I think, is still trying to figure out who he is and Tim Walls very much knows who he is and what his brand is, and so that's kind of interesting. But more than ever, I mean, I think that we're meeting Kamala Harris and Tim Walls at the same time, whereas we know who Donald Trump is and we really don't really know very much about jd. Vance other than sort of what we've read and what we see. The two of them together are very different but also very similar. And that regardless, people are voting for the number one candidate, but the number two on the Democrat side, I think is very much helping more than JD Vance is helping Donald Trump.

Vance, while not really making very much of an impact one way where the other not necessarily detracting from him because people are really voting for Trump. But on the Democrat side, it's actually quite interesting. I think that what's interesting to me as we look at this ticket is that we're getting to know both of these candidates at the very same time. And Tim Walls is very likable as it relates to just the way he he approaches the audiences and the groups that he's connecting with, the people that he's speaking with. He's very authentic. And that is the difference between those two number two candidates is that JD. Vance, I think, is still trying to figure out who he is and Tim Walls very much knows who he is and what his brand is, and so that's kind of interesting. But more than ever, I mean, I think that we're meeting Kamala Harris and Tim Walls at the same time, whereas we know who Donald Trump is and we really don't really know very much about jd. Vance other than sort of what we've read and what we see. The two of them together are very different but also very similar. And that regardless, people are voting for the number one candidate, but the number two on the Democrat side, I think is very much helping more than JD Vance is helping Donald Trump.

Well, so to this point, Genie, of course, we did this poll knowing Tim Walls was running with Kamala Harrison. When he was selected, everybody was like, Okay, well he's from Minnesota. He has that Midwestern appeal that could work in the rest belt. He also had a rural upbringing and was a gun owner and things that may be able to help resonate in other areas. To what extent do you think that is actually showing up in these polls across the string states with that eight point margin in Wisconsin, for example, and frankly the lead Harris now has in Georgia North Carolina, you.

Well, so to this point, Genie, of course, we did this poll knowing Tim Walls was running with Kamala Harrison. When he was selected, everybody was like, Okay, well he's from Minnesota. He has that Midwestern appeal that could work in the rest belt. He also had a rural upbringing and was a gun owner and things that may be able to help resonate in other areas. To what extent do you think that is actually showing up in these polls across the string states with that eight point margin in Wisconsin, for example, and frankly the lead Harris now has in Georgia North Carolina, you.

Know, I think it can be showing up, particularly in a place like Wisconsin, his neighboring state. Traditionally, all of our research shows that vice president's as much attention as we give them on the ballot don't make that much of a difference. So I'm not sure it's making that much of a difference now. But what I would say is, you have to imagine what if Donald Trump hadn't had to choose JD. Vance before Harris was at the top of the ticket, if he had gone with somebody else, you know, JD. Vancy doubled down on the far right of the party. If he had gone with saying Nicky Haley or even somebody unlike at Tulsa Gabbard or somebody else, how different this election might be, particularly in issues involving women and women's reproductive health. So, you know, I think before Donald Trump had, you know, the misfortune of having to make a decision before he knew who he was opposing, and I dare say he would have gone in a different direction given the issues he's confronting now with Kamala Harris.

Know, I think it can be showing up, particularly in a place like Wisconsin, his neighboring state. Traditionally, all of our research shows that vice president's as much attention as we give them on the ballot don't make that much of a difference. So I'm not sure it's making that much of a difference now. But what I would say is, you have to imagine what if Donald Trump hadn't had to choose JD. Vance before Harris was at the top of the ticket, if he had gone with somebody else, you know, JD. Vancy doubled down on the far right of the party. If he had gone with saying Nicky Haley or even somebody unlike at Tulsa Gabbard or somebody else, how different this election might be, particularly in issues involving women and women's reproductive health. So, you know, I think before Donald Trump had, you know, the misfortune of having to make a decision before he knew who he was opposing, and I dare say he would have gone in a different direction given the issues he's confronting now with Kamala Harris.

Well on just the idea of the issues and what Donald Trump has continually brought up in his attacks against Kamala Harris, not the personal ones, but the policy ones, issues like the border and of course the economy. We've spoken about how this poll does show that Harris is pulling better on some economic elements like housing in the middle class than Donald Trump is at this point, Lisa, If that is true, where are the best messaging areas for Donald Trump to hit her on. Is it still going to be the economy or does this suggest maybe he just needs to double down on the border or something else.

Well on just the idea of the issues and what Donald Trump has continually brought up in his attacks against Kamala Harris, not the personal ones, but the policy ones, issues like the border and of course the economy. We've spoken about how this poll does show that Harris is pulling better on some economic elements like housing in the middle class than Donald Trump is at this point, Lisa, If that is true, where are the best messaging areas for Donald Trump to hit her on. Is it still going to be the economy or does this suggest maybe he just needs to double down on the border or something else.

Well, I mean Keilly to the point that I think Geni just made. And to add on to what I said earlier, this is a base election. Each one of them picked a candidate for their number two that very much speaks to the base of the various parties, and so regardless of whether it's immigration, or it's the economy or anything else, each one of those candidates on either side of the aisle will have to talk about issues that will motivate and excite the base to get out and vote. And so yes, I think that immigration is one that continues to motivate and get the base out. On the Republican side, talking about economic issues for each one of them is very, very important. This is absolutely going to come down to turnout, and it's going to come down to support because there is such a slim, slim margin of people that are undecided and haven't figured out who they want to support that They're going to have to figure out a way to talk about the issues as it relates to immigration, the economy, or otherwise in a way that appeals not only to who the people that are already coming out for them, but that slim, slim margin. And that's going to be very difficult for either one of them, because until they can figure that, whoever figures that out, Kelly is the one who's going to win, all right.

Well, I mean Keilly to the point that I think Geni just made. And to add on to what I said earlier, this is a base election. Each one of them picked a candidate for their number two that very much speaks to the base of the various parties, and so regardless of whether it's immigration, or it's the economy or anything else, each one of those candidates on either side of the aisle will have to talk about issues that will motivate and excite the base to get out and vote. And so yes, I think that immigration is one that continues to motivate and get the base out. On the Republican side, talking about economic issues for each one of them is very, very important. This is absolutely going to come down to turnout, and it's going to come down to support because there is such a slim, slim margin of people that are undecided and haven't figured out who they want to support that They're going to have to figure out a way to talk about the issues as it relates to immigration, the economy, or otherwise in a way that appeals not only to who the people that are already coming out for them, but that slim, slim margin. And that's going to be very difficult for either one of them, because until they can figure that, whoever figures that out, Kelly is the one who's going to win, all right.

Lisa Camussa Miller and Jeanie Schanzeno my political panel. Today.

Lisa Camussa Miller and Jeanie Schanzeno my political panel. Today.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern onmo car Play and then broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern onmo car Play and then broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

We are still assessing the first sit down to interview from Vice President Kamala Harrison she became the Democratic nominee for president. She of course sat down for a conversation on CNN last night alongside her running mate Tim Waltz. She was faced with a number of questions surrounding policy, from domestic issues like the border and the economy, to foreign policy. One specifically, when it comes to Israel and the ongoing war in Gaza. This is of course something that many progressives have strong feelings about. Kamala Harris does seem to be getting more slack from that wing of the Democratic Party on this issue than the president she has served with for the last three and a half years. Joe Biden seen as someone who potentially is more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, but she made it clear in the interview last night that she would not support in Israel arms in Bargo, which is something some are calling for. She talked about the need to continue to stand for Israel's defense, but she also pushed a ceasefire deal that she would like to see happen between Israel and Hamas.

We are still assessing the first sit down to interview from Vice President Kamala Harrison she became the Democratic nominee for president. She of course sat down for a conversation on CNN last night alongside her running mate Tim Waltz. She was faced with a number of questions surrounding policy, from domestic issues like the border and the economy, to foreign policy. One specifically, when it comes to Israel and the ongoing war in Gaza. This is of course something that many progressives have strong feelings about. Kamala Harris does seem to be getting more slack from that wing of the Democratic Party on this issue than the president she has served with for the last three and a half years. Joe Biden seen as someone who potentially is more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, but she made it clear in the interview last night that she would not support in Israel arms in Bargo, which is something some are calling for. She talked about the need to continue to stand for Israel's defense, but she also pushed a ceasefire deal that she would like to see happen between Israel and Hamas.

We have got to get a deal done. We were in Doha. We have to get a deal done. This war must end and we must get a deal. That is about getting the hostages out. I've met with the families of the American hostages. Let's get the hostages out. Let's get the ceasefire done.

We have got to get a deal done. We were in Doha. We have to get a deal done. This war must end and we must get a deal. That is about getting the hostages out. I've met with the families of the American hostages. Let's get the hostages out. Let's get the ceasefire done.

So for more on whether that ceasefire could get done in the state of play in the Middle East. Brigadier General retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt is with me now. He of course, was in the US Army, former Assistant Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs. Welcome back to Bloomberg, Sour. Appreciate you joining us. Obviously, the ceasefire negotiations have been on going for some time now, and despite the US occasionally expressing optimism, it doesn't seem there's been much forward movement on what remains the key sticking point, which is whether or not it will mean a permanent Israel pull out of Gaza in terms of the military presence there. Do you really think we're getting any closer to the moment where the Israeli government's going to be willing to agree to that.

So for more on whether that ceasefire could get done in the state of play in the Middle East. Brigadier General retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt is with me now. He of course, was in the US Army, former Assistant Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs. Welcome back to Bloomberg, Sour. Appreciate you joining us. Obviously, the ceasefire negotiations have been on going for some time now, and despite the US occasionally expressing optimism, it doesn't seem there's been much forward movement on what remains the key sticking point, which is whether or not it will mean a permanent Israel pull out of Gaza in terms of the military presence there. Do you really think we're getting any closer to the moment where the Israeli government's going to be willing to agree to that.

I really don't think so, because the proposal that's been put forth right now from the Israelis is that they have a resident force remaining inside of Gaza, one force which is guarding a line that blocks North Gaza from South gazip Gaza City and Communis would be separated. They're also looking at retaining a force along what is known as the Philadelphia Corridor, which separates Gossip from Egypt. Because of concerns with regards to the tunneling that is being done by Hamas. So it's hard to see that either side is either willing and candidate at this point able to agree to a cease fire that would also include the return of the hostages. So I think we're just going to see no breakthroughs anytime soon.

I really don't think so, because the proposal that's been put forth right now from the Israelis is that they have a resident force remaining inside of Gaza, one force which is guarding a line that blocks North Gaza from South gazip Gaza City and Communis would be separated. They're also looking at retaining a force along what is known as the Philadelphia Corridor, which separates Gossip from Egypt. Because of concerns with regards to the tunneling that is being done by Hamas. So it's hard to see that either side is either willing and candidate at this point able to agree to a cease fire that would also include the return of the hostages. So I think we're just going to see no breakthroughs anytime soon.

Well, we are going to see, though, it seems, breaks in the fighting, at least for short periods of time. Over the course of three days beginning on September first, the Unta said Israel has agreed to that in order to provide polio vaccines to the young population in Gaza. Israel has said very clearly this is not the start of a wider seaspire. But part of the conversation we'd had around the initial seaspire much closer to October seventh, that we saw when we were still in the earlier days of this conflict, was whether or not it allowed Hamas breaks in the fighting allowed Hamas to kind of recalibrate and reconstitute themselves. Do you think there's an opportunity for that, or how depleted is Hamas now that they may not even be able to do that in short windows of.

Well, we are going to see, though, it seems, breaks in the fighting, at least for short periods of time. Over the course of three days beginning on September first, the Unta said Israel has agreed to that in order to provide polio vaccines to the young population in Gaza. Israel has said very clearly this is not the start of a wider seaspire. But part of the conversation we'd had around the initial seaspire much closer to October seventh, that we saw when we were still in the earlier days of this conflict, was whether or not it allowed Hamas breaks in the fighting allowed Hamas to kind of recalibrate and reconstitute themselves. Do you think there's an opportunity for that, or how depleted is Hamas now that they may not even be able to do that in short windows of.

Time well, first of all, Hamas has demonstrated a tenacity which I think surprises everybody. And when you're talking about reconstituting, that doesn't really take a lot of effort on the part of Hamas because the remaining resonant forces that they have are pretty well hunkered down in the tunnels primarily. But it's also important to note that that couple of days allows Israel to reconstitute some of this forces, not necessarily to go back into Gasa or to continue fighting in Gaza, but to get them up to the northern border because of the worries and concerns about a ground operation either coming into or going from Lebanon, an attack by his bull or an attack by the Israelis into Lebanon, So that gives them time. Their troops are pretty worn out as well, and if Israel wants to take on or is forced to take on his Bullah, they're going to need some reconstitution time as well.

Time well, first of all, Hamas has demonstrated a tenacity which I think surprises everybody. And when you're talking about reconstituting, that doesn't really take a lot of effort on the part of Hamas because the remaining resonant forces that they have are pretty well hunkered down in the tunnels primarily. But it's also important to note that that couple of days allows Israel to reconstitute some of this forces, not necessarily to go back into Gasa or to continue fighting in Gaza, but to get them up to the northern border because of the worries and concerns about a ground operation either coming into or going from Lebanon, an attack by his bull or an attack by the Israelis into Lebanon, So that gives them time. Their troops are pretty worn out as well, and if Israel wants to take on or is forced to take on his Bullah, they're going to need some reconstitution time as well.

Well.

Well.

While we watched the border with Lebanon, we're also watching Sir the West Bank as Israel this week has begun operations there. They killed five Palestinian gunmen there yesterday. It's been described as was the strike against the Hesbola targets over this past weekend as something that is preemptive. They're trying to ward off eminent threats. But could the preemptive action still be something that is escalatory.

While we watched the border with Lebanon, we're also watching Sir the West Bank as Israel this week has begun operations there. They killed five Palestinian gunmen there yesterday. It's been described as was the strike against the Hesbola targets over this past weekend as something that is preemptive. They're trying to ward off eminent threats. But could the preemptive action still be something that is escalatory.

Oh, certainly. In fact, the great concern that a lot of people have, including myself, as all these preemptive actions put Hamas his Bullah, the West Bank, the Hashid, the Hoho, these in a position where their pride requires them to respond to these preemptive attacks, and we might find ourselves spiraling out of control through either miscalculation, misperception, or just some mischief on the ground by some of the antagonists. So yes, it's important to have preemptive attacks when absolutely necessary. There's a question about where that bar is right now between preemptive and overly preemptive.

Oh, certainly. In fact, the great concern that a lot of people have, including myself, as all these preemptive actions put Hamas his Bullah, the West Bank, the Hashid, the Hoho, these in a position where their pride requires them to respond to these preemptive attacks, and we might find ourselves spiraling out of control through either miscalculation, misperception, or just some mischief on the ground by some of the antagonists. So yes, it's important to have preemptive attacks when absolutely necessary. There's a question about where that bar is right now between preemptive and overly preemptive.

Well, and of course we're still awaiting the Iranian retaliation for the killing of the Hamas political leader in Tehran earlier this summer that still hasn't materialized. Sir, I want to ask you about something else as well, because it is August thirtieth, we are marking today three years since the official pullout of the United States forces from Afghanistan. Of course, a withdrawal that was in many ways chaotic and of course left thirteen members dead. When we consider the suicide bombing at the airport, which Donald Trump was marking earlier this week, to what extent the conversation we're now having about the Middle East, to what extent is that shaped by the events of three years ago. When Donald Trump suggests that it was the withdrawal from Afghanistan that has precipitated a lot of the conflict we have seen in the year since, do you think that's a fair statement.

Well, and of course we're still awaiting the Iranian retaliation for the killing of the Hamas political leader in Tehran earlier this summer that still hasn't materialized. Sir, I want to ask you about something else as well, because it is August thirtieth, we are marking today three years since the official pullout of the United States forces from Afghanistan. Of course, a withdrawal that was in many ways chaotic and of course left thirteen members dead. When we consider the suicide bombing at the airport, which Donald Trump was marking earlier this week, to what extent the conversation we're now having about the Middle East, to what extent is that shaped by the events of three years ago. When Donald Trump suggests that it was the withdrawal from Afghanistan that has precipitated a lot of the conflict we have seen in the year since, do you think that's a fair statement.

I would question the linkage between what happened in Afghanistan and what happened what is happening in Gaza. However, I don't think there's any doubt that the Shambalic withdrawal from Afghanistan in bold In bladmir Plutin to conduct the attack into Ukraine. I think there's more direct linkage between Afghanistan and Ukraine than there is between Afghanistan and Gaza.

I would question the linkage between what happened in Afghanistan and what happened what is happening in Gaza. However, I don't think there's any doubt that the Shambalic withdrawal from Afghanistan in bold In bladmir Plutin to conduct the attack into Ukraine. I think there's more direct linkage between Afghanistan and Ukraine than there is between Afghanistan and Gaza.

Okay, so you do see some linkage there. What is the linkage then, to what's happening in Ukraine? This is primarily a Russia thing.

Okay, so you do see some linkage there. What is the linkage then, to what's happening in Ukraine? This is primarily a Russia thing.

Well, I think the most important thing is that President Putin may have perceived that there would not be an American response in America was tired of fighting in these quote endless wars, that twenty years after fighting in Iraq, in Afghanistan, the United States and for that matter, native nations wouldn't come to the assistance of Ukraine if it was intact, And so he may have put into his calculations that a very low probability that a country that would run away from Afghanistan would be willing to stand behind Ukraine. And as it turns out, of Vladimir Putin was wrong.

Well, I think the most important thing is that President Putin may have perceived that there would not be an American response in America was tired of fighting in these quote endless wars, that twenty years after fighting in Iraq, in Afghanistan, the United States and for that matter, native nations wouldn't come to the assistance of Ukraine if it was intact, And so he may have put into his calculations that a very low probability that a country that would run away from Afghanistan would be willing to stand behind Ukraine. And as it turns out, of Vladimir Putin was wrong.

Well, certainly he may have been wrong about Joe Biden, But do you think Vladimir Putin would be as wrong in that if Donald Trump becomes president once again, do you believe that Donald Trump won't walk away from Ukraine.

Well, certainly he may have been wrong about Joe Biden, But do you think Vladimir Putin would be as wrong in that if Donald Trump becomes president once again, do you believe that Donald Trump won't walk away from Ukraine.

I think President Trump, if he is re elected, will be looking for a negotiated settlement. I'm not sure that Ukraine will like the terms of that. This war has gone on for quite a few years, and both sides seemed to be wearing down, and I think anybody at this point would want to see some sort of an end to the conflict. The question, of course, is what are the terms of that conflict? Termination, who is advantaged by that, who wins, who declares victory? I think what Donald Trump is saying is that he can find a middle ground, that, as Senator Aikens said about Vietnam, they can both just declare victory and go home.

I think President Trump, if he is re elected, will be looking for a negotiated settlement. I'm not sure that Ukraine will like the terms of that. This war has gone on for quite a few years, and both sides seemed to be wearing down, and I think anybody at this point would want to see some sort of an end to the conflict. The question, of course, is what are the terms of that conflict? Termination, who is advantaged by that, who wins, who declares victory? I think what Donald Trump is saying is that he can find a middle ground, that, as Senator Aikens said about Vietnam, they can both just declare victory and go home.