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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay, and then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

We turned to the aforementioned Bloomberg News Morning Consult Swing State poll, in which voters in the Swing States, the seven swing states that will decide this election, We're asked about things like interest rates. Who do you trust more to handle interest rates? Look at this Donald Trump forty six percent, Kamala Harris thirty nine percent. Who do you trust more to cost? To handle the cost of everyday goods? Donald Trump forty seven, Kamala Harris forty two. Taxes Trump forty seven, Harris forty two. But when you pull out from the economic issues and you look at the top line numbers, this has been a remarkable, if not seismic shift in American politics. In just the better part of a week since Joe Biden dropped out, Kamala Harris rose to the top of the ticket. She is now in a statistical tie with Donald Trump. Pleasure to bring in Eli Yoakley. We do this every month when the big pole drops US politics analyst that morning, consult our partners on this poll. Eli, have you ever seen a turn like this? I'll get into the States, especially Michigan with you in a second, but just overall, to erase a gap like that is pretty remarkable in just seven or eight days.

We turned to the aforementioned Bloomberg News Morning Consult Swing State poll, in which voters in the Swing States, the seven swing states that will decide this election, We're asked about things like interest rates. Who do you trust more to handle interest rates? Look at this Donald Trump forty six percent, Kamala Harris thirty nine percent. Who do you trust more to cost? To handle the cost of everyday goods? Donald Trump forty seven, Kamala Harris forty two. Taxes Trump forty seven, Harris forty two. But when you pull out from the economic issues and you look at the top line numbers, this has been a remarkable, if not seismic shift in American politics. In just the better part of a week since Joe Biden dropped out, Kamala Harris rose to the top of the ticket. She is now in a statistical tie with Donald Trump. Pleasure to bring in Eli Yoakley. We do this every month when the big pole drops US politics analyst that morning, consult our partners on this poll. Eli, have you ever seen a turn like this? I'll get into the States, especially Michigan with you in a second, but just overall, to erase a gap like that is pretty remarkable in just seven or eight days.

Have I ever saw it? I saw it this week. Let's go. What a time to be alive. But no, look, it's truly remarkable. Clearly, this is a reset moment in the campaign. I mean, we've been talking month after month. This is our I think tenth wave now and the race kind of static, and between trump assassination, Joe Biden dropping out, and Kamala Harris's rise pretty seismic a few weeks. I think the American electorate is paying attention now.

Have I ever saw it? I saw it this week. Let's go. What a time to be alive. But no, look, it's truly remarkable. Clearly, this is a reset moment in the campaign. I mean, we've been talking month after month. This is our I think tenth wave now and the race kind of static, and between trump assassination, Joe Biden dropping out, and Kamala Harris's rise pretty seismic a few weeks. I think the American electorate is paying attention now.

The American electorate is paying attention. And if the election were held today, pretty hard to say where this would go. But when we drill down on the States, we learn a lot.

The American electorate is paying attention. And if the election were held today, pretty hard to say where this would go. But when we drill down on the States, we learn a lot.

Eli.

Eli.

Pennsylvania remains Donald Trump's to lose, according to what I'm seeing here fifty percent to Harris's forty six. But she's closed the gap and is in fact leading Donald Trump in both Michigan and Wisconsin. This Michigan number jumps off the page plus eleven. Could we look back on this as an outlier? How do you explain that, Eli, It's possible.

Pennsylvania remains Donald Trump's to lose, according to what I'm seeing here fifty percent to Harris's forty six. But she's closed the gap and is in fact leading Donald Trump in both Michigan and Wisconsin. This Michigan number jumps off the page plus eleven. Could we look back on this as an outlier? How do you explain that, Eli, It's possible.

I mean, all these figures could be outliers when we look back in a few months. What we're noticing, and I think Michigan is a good example of this, is the fact that Democrats and voters of color, young people are starting to come in line to how you typically expect them to perform. Kamala Harris is performing me so much better among Biden's twenty twenty voters than he is. She's a parody with Donald Trump been the swing state aggregate. That had been his big advantage across the swing state map was getting those folks who voted for him back in twenty twenty say they're going to vote for him again. That advantage seems to have been a race. Now. Look not to pour cold water on anything here, but if we look at the leads that Kamala Harris has today and say she wins all of these, it doesn't make her president. You know. Having having Georgia tied, for example, could be the decisive state at some point. We'll have to watch what happens in the coming weeks. I mean, this is this happened just as her campaign launched, and so this is an early moment in the campaign to get a gauge of where your voters are with her. But at this early stage, before the hits have come against her, she looks to be in a much better position at winning the White House.

I mean, all these figures could be outliers when we look back in a few months. What we're noticing, and I think Michigan is a good example of this, is the fact that Democrats and voters of color, young people are starting to come in line to how you typically expect them to perform. Kamala Harris is performing me so much better among Biden's twenty twenty voters than he is. She's a parody with Donald Trump been the swing state aggregate. That had been his big advantage across the swing state map was getting those folks who voted for him back in twenty twenty say they're going to vote for him again. That advantage seems to have been a race. Now. Look not to pour cold water on anything here, but if we look at the leads that Kamala Harris has today and say she wins all of these, it doesn't make her president. You know. Having having Georgia tied, for example, could be the decisive state at some point. We'll have to watch what happens in the coming weeks. I mean, this is this happened just as her campaign launched, and so this is an early moment in the campaign to get a gauge of where your voters are with her. But at this early stage, before the hits have come against her, she looks to be in a much better position at winning the White House.

Joe Biden was well.

Joe Biden was well.

Just to put a finer point on that, eli is Kamala Harris ahead now of where Joe Biden was before the debate.

Just to put a finer point on that, eli is Kamala Harris ahead now of where Joe Biden was before the debate.

She is, especially when you look at the national numbers. I mean, it was a pretty close race. We do daily tracking every single day, and we did not see much movement. Joe Biden was under Trump by one or two or three points, depending on the day. Every survey we've gotten back in the last few days since Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee has had her up on Donald Trump. Clearly, that is that is a shift in the political environment in the Democratic Party's favor. And then after the debate, I mean, Joe Biden was just not in a position where he could be really competitive probably as the race stood, but you know, now, it's still early. The Democratic National Convention is going to be a big defining moment for Kamala Harris. I remember watching our tracking of the twenty twenty contest, and what Sephanie Cutter and the Democratic National Committee Convention did for Joe Biden was boost his favorability and strengthen the kind of views people had of him. People don't pay as much attention to vice presidents as we do here in Washington. I mean, even Kamala Harris's numbers were pretty soft. A lot of people had somewhat favorable or somewhat unfavorable views of her. We're starting to see that shift as she gets the spotlight the coming weeks, as the Trump campaign rolls out some negative ads and she gets out her positive ones well. Plus, the Democratic Convention is going to see how she's able to stand up some of the scrutiny.

She is, especially when you look at the national numbers. I mean, it was a pretty close race. We do daily tracking every single day, and we did not see much movement. Joe Biden was under Trump by one or two or three points, depending on the day. Every survey we've gotten back in the last few days since Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee has had her up on Donald Trump. Clearly, that is that is a shift in the political environment in the Democratic Party's favor. And then after the debate, I mean, Joe Biden was just not in a position where he could be really competitive probably as the race stood, but you know, now, it's still early. The Democratic National Convention is going to be a big defining moment for Kamala Harris. I remember watching our tracking of the twenty twenty contest, and what Sephanie Cutter and the Democratic National Committee Convention did for Joe Biden was boost his favorability and strengthen the kind of views people had of him. People don't pay as much attention to vice presidents as we do here in Washington. I mean, even Kamala Harris's numbers were pretty soft. A lot of people had somewhat favorable or somewhat unfavorable views of her. We're starting to see that shift as she gets the spotlight the coming weeks, as the Trump campaign rolls out some negative ads and she gets out her positive ones well. Plus, the Democratic Convention is going to see how she's able to stand up some of the scrutiny.

I think you asked voters Eli about some of the candidates on the shortlist for running mate. Is it worth talking about that Each state's going to feel differently about their own favorite son or daughter. Did we learn anything that equals a trend?

I think you asked voters Eli about some of the candidates on the shortlist for running mate. Is it worth talking about that Each state's going to feel differently about their own favorite son or daughter. Did we learn anything that equals a trend?

I think that the numbers are pretty intuitive if you're in Arizona, you like Mark Kelly. If you're in Pennsylvania, you like Josh Europe. On the national level, it kind of also makes since Pete Pittage is the most well known and well liked figure that has been on various short lists. He's followed by Josh Shapiro. And if you're thinking about Pennsylvania, you're thinking about a place where both Joe Biden and now Kamala Harris are not yet leading Donald Trump. You can see how a popular governor who can give quite a speech that makes a lot of people think about former President Barack Obama every once in a while, you can see that being a helpful person to have on the ticket. But what is going to have to happen with the vice presidential nominee is just a severe attack dog. I mean, the campaign via Morning Joe and the other shows that the Democratic possible contenders have been waging has been pretty fascinating to why it's been which which governor, which Democratic governor can out attack Donald Trump and JD. Vance. Advance has become a creative target for some of these folks with some of the some of the interesting developments we've learned about his history. But I think the vice presidential contender probably matters not as much as that top of the ticket figure, Kamala Harris. She really seems to be getting Democratic voters in mind.

I think that the numbers are pretty intuitive if you're in Arizona, you like Mark Kelly. If you're in Pennsylvania, you like Josh Europe. On the national level, it kind of also makes since Pete Pittage is the most well known and well liked figure that has been on various short lists. He's followed by Josh Shapiro. And if you're thinking about Pennsylvania, you're thinking about a place where both Joe Biden and now Kamala Harris are not yet leading Donald Trump. You can see how a popular governor who can give quite a speech that makes a lot of people think about former President Barack Obama every once in a while, you can see that being a helpful person to have on the ticket. But what is going to have to happen with the vice presidential nominee is just a severe attack dog. I mean, the campaign via Morning Joe and the other shows that the Democratic possible contenders have been waging has been pretty fascinating to why it's been which which governor, which Democratic governor can out attack Donald Trump and JD. Vance. Advance has become a creative target for some of these folks with some of the some of the interesting developments we've learned about his history. But I think the vice presidential contender probably matters not as much as that top of the ticket figure, Kamala Harris. She really seems to be getting Democratic voters in mind.

I'm sure it's not even close, to be honest, but you're right, Pennsylvania is not lost on us in the fact that she has an announcement on a running mate. I believe scheduled or at least the first stop is going to be in Philadelphia next week to start this road trip with the running mate. I don't know. Just something to consider. By the way, if you didn't see the video of Governor Shapiro playing basketball with those young kids yesterday, pretty strong optics. ELI talk to me about motivation here, activating the base. More than a third of voters in the seven states here say they are much more likely to vote in a Trump Harris contest than a Trump Biden one.

I'm sure it's not even close, to be honest, but you're right, Pennsylvania is not lost on us in the fact that she has an announcement on a running mate. I believe scheduled or at least the first stop is going to be in Philadelphia next week to start this road trip with the running mate. I don't know. Just something to consider. By the way, if you didn't see the video of Governor Shapiro playing basketball with those young kids yesterday, pretty strong optics. ELI talk to me about motivation here, activating the base. More than a third of voters in the seven states here say they are much more likely to vote in a Trump Harris contest than a Trump Biden one.

What does that tell us?

What does that tell us?

I think the most interesting figures there are the people most impacted this have been Black voters. You know, that's such a core key constituency for Democrats to be able to win elections. Having black voters more fired up this time around is only a positive step. I think the most important thing though, is these young voters. I mean, gen Z is up there on the same level as black voters in terms of new enthusiasm. I mean, that's one of the things that made the Michigan numbers stand out so much, was Kamala Harris reverse the democrats poorer performance among the youngest voters in the elector. We saw that across the larger Swing State map. Two. Getting young people excited is how Democrats win presidential elections. It's one of the most important groups to get fired up to come out to the polls, and so I think a shift at the top of the ticket, plus a more compelling figure for young people, it's going to do a lot of work to help motivate those voters and put Donald Trump on the defense for the first time in a while in this campaign.

I think the most interesting figures there are the people most impacted this have been Black voters. You know, that's such a core key constituency for Democrats to be able to win elections. Having black voters more fired up this time around is only a positive step. I think the most important thing though, is these young voters. I mean, gen Z is up there on the same level as black voters in terms of new enthusiasm. I mean, that's one of the things that made the Michigan numbers stand out so much, was Kamala Harris reverse the democrats poorer performance among the youngest voters in the elector. We saw that across the larger Swing State map. Two. Getting young people excited is how Democrats win presidential elections. It's one of the most important groups to get fired up to come out to the polls, and so I think a shift at the top of the ticket, plus a more compelling figure for young people, it's going to do a lot of work to help motivate those voters and put Donald Trump on the defense for the first time in a while in this campaign.

Eli, really great to have you back, Eli Yokley, us politics analysts that morning consult our partners throughout this campaign on our monthly Bloomberg News Morning Consult Swing State Pole.

Eli, really great to have you back, Eli Yokley, us politics analysts that morning consult our partners throughout this campaign on our monthly Bloomberg News Morning Consult Swing State Pole.

Fascinating stuff, you'l.

Fascinating stuff, you'l.

I think you as always for the insights and the great analysis. The other question that we didn't have chance to discuss had to do with violence political violence around the election It's something that we've been asking voters about months a month.

I think you as always for the insights and the great analysis. The other question that we didn't have chance to discuss had to do with violence political violence around the election It's something that we've been asking voters about months a month.

In this case, how did we ask it?

In this case, how did we ask it?

How much do you trust the election and its aftermath will be free from violence? Only sixteen percent said a lot, Thirty four percent said some. We'll keep tabs on that as we get our way through Chicago and get closer to November. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. Thanks for coming along. The fastest show in politics, will turn our attention to Israel and Iran. Coming up next on Bloomberg Radio.

How much do you trust the election and its aftermath will be free from violence? Only sixteen percent said a lot, Thirty four percent said some. We'll keep tabs on that as we get our way through Chicago and get closer to November. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. Thanks for coming along. The fastest show in politics, will turn our attention to Israel and Iran. Coming up next on Bloomberg Radio.

You're listening to the bloom Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on applecar Play and then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play.

You're listening to the bloom Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on applecar Play and then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play.

Bloomberg eleven thirty says it all here on the terminal in a single story, strikes on Israel's enemies in Tehran and Beirut raised tensions with Israel demonstrating its willingness to risk retaliation after the targeting within just a few hours of senior Hamas and hesbel A leaders abroad raising the prospects here of regional conflict.

Bloomberg eleven thirty says it all here on the terminal in a single story, strikes on Israel's enemies in Tehran and Beirut raised tensions with Israel demonstrating its willingness to risk retaliation after the targeting within just a few hours of senior Hamas and hesbel A leaders abroad raising the prospects here of regional conflict.

So it happened again around this time.

So it happened again around this time.

Yesterday we were talking about the response, the retaliation against the Hamas Hesbelah bombing, rather of the children and teenagers on the soccer field. Now we're talking about a strike not on the Beirut suburbs, but in Tehran itself. The leader of Hamas, the political leader is my well, Hanya assassinated in the early hours of the morning in Iran, according to Hamas. And we need to be clear, while this is being referred to as in Israeli airstrike, the IDF has not in fact confirmed that it was their doing. And that's where we start our conversation with Holly Dagris. We had to go to an expert on this editor of the menta source in Iran, source, senior fellow in the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council. Holly, it's good to see you. Thank you for coming back. Should we assume this is Israel.

Yesterday we were talking about the response, the retaliation against the Hamas Hesbelah bombing, rather of the children and teenagers on the soccer field. Now we're talking about a strike not on the Beirut suburbs, but in Tehran itself. The leader of Hamas, the political leader is my well, Hanya assassinated in the early hours of the morning in Iran, according to Hamas. And we need to be clear, while this is being referred to as in Israeli airstrike, the IDF has not in fact confirmed that it was their doing. And that's where we start our conversation with Holly Dagris. We had to go to an expert on this editor of the menta source in Iran, source, senior fellow in the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council. Holly, it's good to see you. Thank you for coming back. Should we assume this is Israel.

Well, I would say that Mussad's been treating Iran like it's playground for many years now. They've played a role in sabotage on Iran's nuclear facilities, defense facilities, the assassination of top nuclear scientists, and even this stealing of sensitive nuclear files. So I think a lot of folks are pointing their fingers at Israel given that contact.

Well, I would say that Mussad's been treating Iran like it's playground for many years now. They've played a role in sabotage on Iran's nuclear facilities, defense facilities, the assassination of top nuclear scientists, and even this stealing of sensitive nuclear files. So I think a lot of folks are pointing their fingers at Israel given that contact.

Pretty bold to strike in Tehran itself.

Pretty bold to strike in Tehran itself.

Well, not just that, the same day that was the inauguration of the country's new in a massive possession with one hundred and ten foreign delegations in the country.

Well, not just that, the same day that was the inauguration of the country's new in a massive possession with one hundred and ten foreign delegations in the country.

So there's now worry about the response to the response.

So there's now worry about the response to the response.

What's about to happen.

What's about to happen.

Well, we've heard publicly from the Supreme Leader himself, Ayetela ade Kamine has actually said that he vows revenge. We've also seen that the United Nations Iranian Permanent Mission to the United Nations has publicly said that they're going to engage in special operations, which I would say is a signaling to the Western Israel that they're not going to be directly responding like the way we saw in April where Iran fired three hundred ballistic missiles drones at Israel directly. But it sounds like they're going to respond. It's just a matter of when and how.

Well, we've heard publicly from the Supreme Leader himself, Ayetela ade Kamine has actually said that he vows revenge. We've also seen that the United Nations Iranian Permanent Mission to the United Nations has publicly said that they're going to engage in special operations, which I would say is a signaling to the Western Israel that they're not going to be directly responding like the way we saw in April where Iran fired three hundred ballistic missiles drones at Israel directly. But it sounds like they're going to respond. It's just a matter of when and how.

And striking against an individual that's becomes a tip for tap.

And striking against an individual that's becomes a tip for tap.

It would seem very likely because they do see this as an eye for an eye and the fact that they didn't cite the UN Charter, which is what they did last time, which was they used international law to make their case, tells me that this is going to be a different kind of response than what we saw in April.

It would seem very likely because they do see this as an eye for an eye and the fact that they didn't cite the UN Charter, which is what they did last time, which was they used international law to make their case, tells me that this is going to be a different kind of response than what we saw in April.

Yeah, to your point, Iran Supreme Leader responding to say that Iran considers revenge as its duty written on his official website, how do you read into.

Yeah, to your point, Iran Supreme Leader responding to say that Iran considers revenge as its duty written on his official website, how do you read into.

That, Well, the talk of revenge is very common with the Supreme Leader in these contexts. He also vowed revenge when the IRGC commander was taken out in Damascus at the Iranian embassy compound in Syria that prompted the big tip for tat we saw in April. He's also said that in the context of Rodesfors, commander lost some solar money. So there's this sense that they have to respond or else there's going to be seen as a sign of weakness.

That, Well, the talk of revenge is very common with the Supreme Leader in these contexts. He also vowed revenge when the IRGC commander was taken out in Damascus at the Iranian embassy compound in Syria that prompted the big tip for tat we saw in April. He's also said that in the context of Rodesfors, commander lost some solar money. So there's this sense that they have to respond or else there's going to be seen as a sign of weakness.

Benjaminina who can relate with that?

Benjaminina who can relate with that?

I started by referring to the risk that he's willing to take here in this case. What is going on inside the inner circle that surrounds Benjamininya.

I started by referring to the risk that he's willing to take here in this case. What is going on inside the inner circle that surrounds Benjamininya.

Well, we're nearly ten months into the Gaza war that was prompted by Hamas's terrorist attack on Israel and October seventh, and while these have been ongoing, the key point of Natanyahu's strategy was to take out Hamas, and we've seen that not just Henia the political chief, was taken out, but reportedly Muhammad Dave, one of the key military commanders in Hamas. So in some ways this is at least giving the appearance that they're actually making good on that commentary that they're going to take out Hamas, not the ideology itself, but it's leadership.

Well, we're nearly ten months into the Gaza war that was prompted by Hamas's terrorist attack on Israel and October seventh, and while these have been ongoing, the key point of Natanyahu's strategy was to take out Hamas, and we've seen that not just Henia the political chief, was taken out, but reportedly Muhammad Dave, one of the key military commanders in Hamas. So in some ways this is at least giving the appearance that they're actually making good on that commentary that they're going to take out Hamas, not the ideology itself, but it's leadership.

Well, so what do you make of this prospect?

Well, so what do you make of this prospect?

Or?

Or?

We keep hearing about worries about a wider war, that this could become a regional conflict that could even draw Iran and the US into it. But a lot of the smart analysis I've heard is that every party is trying to avoid that. It doesn't help Hamas, it doesn't help Hazbolan, it doesn't help.

We keep hearing about worries about a wider war, that this could become a regional conflict that could even draw Iran and the US into it. But a lot of the smart analysis I've heard is that every party is trying to avoid that. It doesn't help Hamas, it doesn't help Hazbolan, it doesn't help.

Israel absolutely, I know, like looking from the outside in, it's like, well, how is this not going to all these different tit for tached strikes in various shapes and forms. But absolutely none of these regional partners or foes want to see a wider war spread because this would drag everyone in. It's not just an Iran Israel thing. It's e Lebanon, it's a Syria, it's in Iraq. I am so even the golf and so one would hope that cooler heads will prevail. But this is why when you see the signaling from the Iranian emissions saying so publicly how their response will look like that, it's almost de escalatory even though they are going to respond. And this is exactly what happened in April.

Israel absolutely, I know, like looking from the outside in, it's like, well, how is this not going to all these different tit for tached strikes in various shapes and forms. But absolutely none of these regional partners or foes want to see a wider war spread because this would drag everyone in. It's not just an Iran Israel thing. It's e Lebanon, it's a Syria, it's in Iraq. I am so even the golf and so one would hope that cooler heads will prevail. But this is why when you see the signaling from the Iranian emissions saying so publicly how their response will look like that, it's almost de escalatory even though they are going to respond. And this is exactly what happened in April.

That's fascinating is the US still in Benjamin Etna, who's ear or has the tension over this war with hamas broken down the credibility of the administration when it reaches out to Na.

That's fascinating is the US still in Benjamin Etna, who's ear or has the tension over this war with hamas broken down the credibility of the administration when it reaches out to Na.

Well, I think one of the things that are really playing a complicated things as the US election itself. We suddenly have a possible different Democratic presidential candidate with Biden no longer that differently yes, and so I think that Netanya, who is having to cautually keep that in the back of his mind, like who will be in office come James.

Well, I think one of the things that are really playing a complicated things as the US election itself. We suddenly have a possible different Democratic presidential candidate with Biden no longer that differently yes, and so I think that Netanya, who is having to cautually keep that in the back of his mind, like who will be in office come James.

Are worried about Kamala Harris.

Are worried about Kamala Harris.

I mean, I would say that you're not going to see too much of a difference between the Biden policy. But at the end of the day, we really don't know what Kamala Harris's Middle East strategy is, except with the exception of her comments that were made after her meeting with Netanyahu last week. But when you're looking at the big picture with where things are going, I think that Netanya, who is having to tread carefully because he also has to think about his own career which is at risk as well.

I mean, I would say that you're not going to see too much of a difference between the Biden policy. But at the end of the day, we really don't know what Kamala Harris's Middle East strategy is, except with the exception of her comments that were made after her meeting with Netanyahu last week. But when you're looking at the big picture with where things are going, I think that Netanya, who is having to tread carefully because he also has to think about his own career which is at risk as well.

Well, that's right, Kamala Harris is striking. We'll say exactly the same thing word for word as Joe Biden, but will be applauded by members of the squad and it will.

Well, that's right, Kamala Harris is striking. We'll say exactly the same thing word for word as Joe Biden, but will be applauded by members of the squad and it will.

Be interpreted differently.

Be interpreted differently.

When she had those remarks following the meeting, she didn't say anything Joe Biden had not said before and calling for a ceasefire, but it landed differently. Why.

When she had those remarks following the meeting, she didn't say anything Joe Biden had not said before and calling for a ceasefire, but it landed differently. Why.

I think the way she talked about the conflict itself, I remember reading some of the analysis was that it was seen as more balanced because it wasn't talking just about what was happening in Israel, but what was happening with the humanitarian situation on the ground.

I think the way she talked about the conflict itself, I remember reading some of the analysis was that it was seen as more balanced because it wasn't talking just about what was happening in Israel, but what was happening with the humanitarian situation on the ground.

She says, our support, desire and clad when it comes to Israel, right, correct, correct, So it's kind.

She says, our support, desire and clad when it comes to Israel, right, correct, correct, So it's kind.

Of the same message.

Of the same message.

Yes, it's just I would say boxed a little differently. As you noted.

Yes, it's just I would say boxed a little differently. As you noted.

What's the message from Donald Trump? There's been talk of a feud between these two. They got back together at mar A Lago. We all saw the hug.

What's the message from Donald Trump? There's been talk of a feud between these two. They got back together at mar A Lago. We all saw the hug.

What's Donald Trump's real policy? Does Benjamin Nett? YEAHO, No, Well, I think.

What's Donald Trump's real policy? Does Benjamin Nett? YEAHO, No, Well, I think.

That Donald Trump, our former US president, Donald Trump's view is he's a deal maker. If this war drags on to let's say, if he was to win the election come January, he's going to want to make a deal because he would like to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

That Donald Trump, our former US president, Donald Trump's view is he's a deal maker. If this war drags on to let's say, if he was to win the election come January, he's going to want to make a deal because he would like to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

He'd like the Nobel Peace Prize.

He'd like the Nobel Peace Prize.

Yes, he's always seemed to hint.

Yes, he's always seemed to hint.

At that my way of Israel.

At that my way of Israel.

I mean, he would like to be the peacemaker between and to end the war. And I really think that is.

I mean, he would like to be the peacemaker between and to end the war. And I really think that is.

That a good thing.

That a good thing.

I mean, nobody wants a war to go go on. But I think that when Jnald Trump thinks about the conflict, he's thinking about making a deal.

I mean, nobody wants a war to go go on. But I think that when Jnald Trump thinks about the conflict, he's thinking about making a deal.

That's fascinating and that would probably go for Ukraine as well. Right, So he sweeps in brings both conflicts to a close. Wins the Nobel Peace Prize. That's that's the idea.

That's fascinating and that would probably go for Ukraine as well. Right, So he sweeps in brings both conflicts to a close. Wins the Nobel Peace Prize. That's that's the idea.

I mean that his in his world potentially.

I mean that his in his world potentially.

Yes, in Kamala Harris's world, does the cease fire happen before November? Is that something that Benjamina who would wait to see?

Yes, in Kamala Harris's world, does the cease fire happen before November? Is that something that Benjamina who would wait to see?

Well?

Well?

I think that the fact that Ismailhanye was just assassinated, who is a chief negotiator, has definitely delayed negotiations. It hasn't ended them, but I think that it may possibly go past November. We'll have to see.

I think that the fact that Ismailhanye was just assassinated, who is a chief negotiator, has definitely delayed negotiations. It hasn't ended them, but I think that it may possibly go past November. We'll have to see.

These are wild times to think that we're talking about this today. When we called you last evening, we didn't know what would be happening in Tehran. And this really has become a day to day, almost hour to hour story.

These are wild times to think that we're talking about this today. When we called you last evening, we didn't know what would be happening in Tehran. And this really has become a day to day, almost hour to hour story.

Hasn't it. It has all over again. It's great to have you back.

Hasn't it. It has all over again. It's great to have you back.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then froud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then froud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

In the latest Bloomberg News Morning Console Swing state poll that didn't just show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a statistical tie across the seven states that will likely decide the election, but also showed where voters trust them when it comes to specific issues. On unity, Joe Kamala Harris is the favorite. On immigration and on the economy, it is Donald Trump by a wide margin.

In the latest Bloomberg News Morning Console Swing state poll that didn't just show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a statistical tie across the seven states that will likely decide the election, but also showed where voters trust them when it comes to specific issues. On unity, Joe Kamala Harris is the favorite. On immigration and on the economy, it is Donald Trump by a wide margin.

Yeah, you can drill down even more when it comes Kayley to stock market performance Trump forty eight Kamala Harris thirty five. That's who do you trust more to handle? That's a wide disparity forty seven, forty two in favor of Trump when it comes to taxes and on this FED day interest rates Trump forty six Kamala Harris thirty nine. Maybe she should start tweeting at Jay Powell the way he used to to turn those numbers around. It makes you wonder where the strength is coming from as she makes up for so much lost ground here. And to your point, Wendy Benjaminson has been all over this for US Washington Senior editor and are polling guru here in the newsroom. Wendy, give us the big picture, because this isn't just making up ground. She's leading in Michigan by eleven points. What are the issues driving this?

Yeah, you can drill down even more when it comes Kayley to stock market performance Trump forty eight Kamala Harris thirty five. That's who do you trust more to handle? That's a wide disparity forty seven, forty two in favor of Trump when it comes to taxes and on this FED day interest rates Trump forty six Kamala Harris thirty nine. Maybe she should start tweeting at Jay Powell the way he used to to turn those numbers around. It makes you wonder where the strength is coming from as she makes up for so much lost ground here. And to your point, Wendy Benjaminson has been all over this for US Washington Senior editor and are polling guru here in the newsroom. Wendy, give us the big picture, because this isn't just making up ground. She's leading in Michigan by eleven points. What are the issues driving this?

Well?

Well?

I think part of the issue is just the sort of excitement and energy that she brings to the campaign. It's like Democratic voters all over the country are saying, Wow, now we got a raise. Okay, let's you know, let's all get in there. And we're seeing that in her fundraising numbers two hundred million dollars in one week. Sixty six percent of them were first time donors. We're seeing it in the poll among enthusiasm to vote now is up. Sixty five percent of Black respondents in our poll said they were more motivated to vote now that she's in the race. Similar numbers for Hispanics and for young people of all races. These are the people that Donald Trump was just losing in droves. But to your point on the who do you trust questions, one of the things I should point out is that, yes, she is still well behind Donald Trump on economic issues and immigration, but she's ahead of where Biden was last month. So she's made up some of that ground. And now now that we've gone through the hey gee, it's Kamala. Isn't that exciting? Now she's going to have to start talking about issues and we'll see where she goes there.

I think part of the issue is just the sort of excitement and energy that she brings to the campaign. It's like Democratic voters all over the country are saying, Wow, now we got a raise. Okay, let's you know, let's all get in there. And we're seeing that in her fundraising numbers two hundred million dollars in one week. Sixty six percent of them were first time donors. We're seeing it in the poll among enthusiasm to vote now is up. Sixty five percent of Black respondents in our poll said they were more motivated to vote now that she's in the race. Similar numbers for Hispanics and for young people of all races. These are the people that Donald Trump was just losing in droves. But to your point on the who do you trust questions, one of the things I should point out is that, yes, she is still well behind Donald Trump on economic issues and immigration, but she's ahead of where Biden was last month. So she's made up some of that ground. And now now that we've gone through the hey gee, it's Kamala. Isn't that exciting? Now she's going to have to start talking about issues and we'll see where she goes there.

Well, certainly we've already seen with the initial advis from the Trump campaign going after her on the issue of the border. We talked a lot about those yesterday. It is worth noting as well. And of course this poll went into the field after we knew that JD. Vance was alongside Donald Trump on this ticket. We still don't know who's joining Kamala Harris. We expect we'll find out within the next week. But how should we be thinking about the impact that could.

Well, certainly we've already seen with the initial advis from the Trump campaign going after her on the issue of the border. We talked a lot about those yesterday. It is worth noting as well. And of course this poll went into the field after we knew that JD. Vance was alongside Donald Trump on this ticket. We still don't know who's joining Kamala Harris. We expect we'll find out within the next week. But how should we be thinking about the impact that could.

Have the impact of her choosing a vice president. I think she really needs to look at the states where she needs to gain ground. We are looking very closely now at Jos Shapiro, Mark Kelly and Tim Walls. And Tim Walls brings a sort of progressive energy that will help her sustain that young vote and the votes of people of color. Doesn't do much geographically. I mean, Minnesota has always been a blue state, always has been, always will be, despite Donald Trump's efforts to turn it. Read Pennsylvania, where Jos Shapiro is the governor. Our poll shows she's still down there, probably because of her remarks on fracking, probably because unions aren't sure what to do yet, so she needs to make up a lot of ground there, But as you noted, immigration is her Achilles heel. It is the one thing that Donald Trump is just going to hammer on day in and day out, where Mark Kelly of Arizona could as a moderate border state senator, help her mitigate that.

Have the impact of her choosing a vice president. I think she really needs to look at the states where she needs to gain ground. We are looking very closely now at Jos Shapiro, Mark Kelly and Tim Walls. And Tim Walls brings a sort of progressive energy that will help her sustain that young vote and the votes of people of color. Doesn't do much geographically. I mean, Minnesota has always been a blue state, always has been, always will be, despite Donald Trump's efforts to turn it. Read Pennsylvania, where Jos Shapiro is the governor. Our poll shows she's still down there, probably because of her remarks on fracking, probably because unions aren't sure what to do yet, so she needs to make up a lot of ground there, But as you noted, immigration is her Achilles heel. It is the one thing that Donald Trump is just going to hammer on day in and day out, where Mark Kelly of Arizona could as a moderate border state senator, help her mitigate that.

There's one number in here that I find interesting that's not getting enough talk. In my opinion, we talked about interest rates, the price of goods, a number of financial issues. There's one thing that touches all of us, and that's healthcare costs. And she's blowing Donald Trump out of the water on this. Harris forty nine percent, Trump forty Who do you trust more to handle healthcare costs? Almost a ten point spread. Does he need to start talking about this in a different way?

There's one number in here that I find interesting that's not getting enough talk. In my opinion, we talked about interest rates, the price of goods, a number of financial issues. There's one thing that touches all of us, and that's healthcare costs. And she's blowing Donald Trump out of the water on this. Harris forty nine percent, Trump forty Who do you trust more to handle healthcare costs? Almost a ten point spread. Does he need to start talking about this in a different way?

Well, if he wants to win the trust of voters on those issues, maybe he should. But remember he wants to end the Affordable Care Act. He's been saying that for years. He said it all through his first term, and he couldn't get it done because Congress wouldn't go along. And he's doing it again this year. And affordable healthcare. She's that is the one thing she has already been hammering on in her rallies is that he wants to end that I'm to help people. I'm here to help people, you know, get what the care they need. I think she will focus much more than Biden did on the care economy, childcare, housing costs, healthcare, elder care, the sort of things that families worry about every day, as opposed to Donald Trump's ideas of what costs, what is better for business?

Well, if he wants to win the trust of voters on those issues, maybe he should. But remember he wants to end the Affordable Care Act. He's been saying that for years. He said it all through his first term, and he couldn't get it done because Congress wouldn't go along. And he's doing it again this year. And affordable healthcare. She's that is the one thing she has already been hammering on in her rallies is that he wants to end that I'm to help people. I'm here to help people, you know, get what the care they need. I think she will focus much more than Biden did on the care economy, childcare, housing costs, healthcare, elder care, the sort of things that families worry about every day, as opposed to Donald Trump's ideas of what costs, what is better for business?

All right, Bloomberg's Wendy Benjaminson Marathon twenty four hours for Wendy as we got this pull out into the world, Thank you so much. And of course what we are listening to Wendy and detailing our polling that shows more enthusiasm among black voters, who suggest they may be more likely to vote now that Kamala Harris is in the race. It is worth noting that as we speak, we're preparing to hear from Donald Trump at the National Association of Black Journalists in Chicago, where he will be taking part in a moderated panel Joe. Of course, Kamala Harris is not going to be there today. It is planned apparently for a virtual or other wise meeting in September. But it speaks to this notion that Donald Trump is trying to reach a certain demographic here. So on this note, let's assemble now. Our political panel with us is Lauren Tomlinson, Republican strategist and Claffee Communications President, and Jane Wartel, who's our Democratic strategist today. She is partner at our initiative, so Jenay. Obviously, while we wait to hear more from Donald Trump in Chicago today, we have heard a great deal from him over the last twenty four hours. We've seen advertisements as well. I just saw Kamala Harris ad in fact that was running during the Olympics. When we think about the messaging here, Harris still trying to introduce herself and Donald Trump already attacking her, how soon does Kamala Harris need to go on the attack in return?

All right, Bloomberg's Wendy Benjaminson Marathon twenty four hours for Wendy as we got this pull out into the world, Thank you so much. And of course what we are listening to Wendy and detailing our polling that shows more enthusiasm among black voters, who suggest they may be more likely to vote now that Kamala Harris is in the race. It is worth noting that as we speak, we're preparing to hear from Donald Trump at the National Association of Black Journalists in Chicago, where he will be taking part in a moderated panel Joe. Of course, Kamala Harris is not going to be there today. It is planned apparently for a virtual or other wise meeting in September. But it speaks to this notion that Donald Trump is trying to reach a certain demographic here. So on this note, let's assemble now. Our political panel with us is Lauren Tomlinson, Republican strategist and Claffee Communications President, and Jane Wartel, who's our Democratic strategist today. She is partner at our initiative, so Jenay. Obviously, while we wait to hear more from Donald Trump in Chicago today, we have heard a great deal from him over the last twenty four hours. We've seen advertisements as well. I just saw Kamala Harris ad in fact that was running during the Olympics. When we think about the messaging here, Harris still trying to introduce herself and Donald Trump already attacking her, how soon does Kamala Harris need to go on the attack in return?

Well, I believe the Vice President Harris is going to spend the next few days on the campaign trail, as you said, introducing ourselves to voters, making sure that they know who she is. Certainly we're very familiar with her from our time as vice president, but making sure that voters know her plan and how that may differ ever so slightly or in great measure from President Biden's policy stances on certain issues. I think that she has actually been in that time also taking an opportunity to demonstrate for voters what the contrast is, particularly on the economy, particularly on reproductive freedom, and I think that's been really important. When she talks about you not going back, she talks about not going back to many of the Trump policies that were failed, and also highlighting that former President Trump really has an outlined a vision for America that is progressive, that moved forward, but rather rehashing kind of some of his past failures as president and places where he really didn't get the job done. So I believe she's threading the needle and doing both introducing herself now to voters, but also creating contrast early with former President Trump.

Well, I believe the Vice President Harris is going to spend the next few days on the campaign trail, as you said, introducing ourselves to voters, making sure that they know who she is. Certainly we're very familiar with her from our time as vice president, but making sure that voters know her plan and how that may differ ever so slightly or in great measure from President Biden's policy stances on certain issues. I think that she has actually been in that time also taking an opportunity to demonstrate for voters what the contrast is, particularly on the economy, particularly on reproductive freedom, and I think that's been really important. When she talks about you not going back, she talks about not going back to many of the Trump policies that were failed, and also highlighting that former President Trump really has an outlined a vision for America that is progressive, that moved forward, but rather rehashing kind of some of his past failures as president and places where he really didn't get the job done. So I believe she's threading the needle and doing both introducing herself now to voters, but also creating contrast early with former President Trump.

I want to ask you both about the results of this poll, Lauren.

I want to ask you both about the results of this poll, Lauren.

From the view of.

From the view of.

The Trump campaign, they can't be happy with what Bloomberg News in Morning Consult is finding here, particularly when it comes to some of the blue Wall states as Democrats call them, like Michigan with Kamala Harris up eleven. I don't know how far you're reading into that, but does this suggest a narrowing path for Donald Trump?

The Trump campaign, they can't be happy with what Bloomberg News in Morning Consult is finding here, particularly when it comes to some of the blue Wall states as Democrats call them, like Michigan with Kamala Harris up eleven. I don't know how far you're reading into that, but does this suggest a narrowing path for Donald Trump?

I think it puts us back pre debate.

I think it puts us back pre debate.

So a lot of this is very similar to how tight we were looking at the Blue States pre Joe Biden's cognitive issues coming to roost. So I think that for the Trump campaign, yes, they're going to be concerned their advantage was just eliminated with Kamala coming in, but it doesn't change the strategy and the outreach that they're going to have to do to make sure that they make up these numbers and the targets are still the same, So they've got a lot of work to do. They've got to stay focused. And also, you know, like we've been talking about, there's a huge enthusiasm boost right now. So who knows if Michigan, for example, stays at eleven. I imagine it's going to calm down a little bit as Kamala.

So a lot of this is very similar to how tight we were looking at the Blue States pre Joe Biden's cognitive issues coming to roost. So I think that for the Trump campaign, yes, they're going to be concerned their advantage was just eliminated with Kamala coming in, but it doesn't change the strategy and the outreach that they're going to have to do to make sure that they make up these numbers and the targets are still the same, So they've got a lot of work to do. They've got to stay focused. And also, you know, like we've been talking about, there's a huge enthusiasm boost right now. So who knows if Michigan, for example, stays at eleven. I imagine it's going to calm down a little bit as Kamala.

Talks about the policy issues and all of these things.

Talks about the policy issues and all of these things.

That are going forward.

That are going forward.

But for the moment, the polls are going to reflect that enthusiasm boost and they're going to be very very tight, and any campaign is going to be concerned about that.

But for the moment, the polls are going to reflect that enthusiasm boost and they're going to be very very tight, and any campaign is going to be concerned about that.

But they've got to keep doing the work.

But they've got to keep doing the work.

So that's how Donald Trump may be looking at these figures. But Janey, what about if you're the Kamala Harris campaign as nascent as it still is, knowing you have to make a vice presidential selection in just the next few days. We're expecting this could happen by next Tuesday. How could figures like what we're seeing in states like say Pennsylvania or Arizona or Georgia for that matter, influenced that decision.

So that's how Donald Trump may be looking at these figures. But Janey, what about if you're the Kamala Harris campaign as nascent as it still is, knowing you have to make a vice presidential selection in just the next few days. We're expecting this could happen by next Tuesday. How could figures like what we're seeing in states like say Pennsylvania or Arizona or Georgia for that matter, influenced that decision.

Well, you have to look at what does a vice presidential pick really bring to the ticket? Right you're thinking about obviously your swing states where you have folks like Josh Shapiro, where you have folks like Mark Kelly, who are people who could really add and expand your map and make some of those tougher battleground states a little less tough. But you also have to think about what are the policy positions and the roles that they've played in governance that really do bring kind of that credentialing to to your ticket. And so that's why someone like uh A, Joshapiro or Mark Kelly really does rise to the top of that list, because these are folks who understand the nuance of policymaking. They understand, you know, the interplay between the executive being an executive but then you know, Mark Kelly also understands what it means to be an elective member of of of a federal of a federal chamber. And so I think that those that that governance experience is really important, and the certain policies and leadership roles that they've taken up on committees is also a big.

Well, you have to look at what does a vice presidential pick really bring to the ticket? Right you're thinking about obviously your swing states where you have folks like Josh Shapiro, where you have folks like Mark Kelly, who are people who could really add and expand your map and make some of those tougher battleground states a little less tough. But you also have to think about what are the policy positions and the roles that they've played in governance that really do bring kind of that credentialing to to your ticket. And so that's why someone like uh A, Joshapiro or Mark Kelly really does rise to the top of that list, because these are folks who understand the nuance of policymaking. They understand, you know, the interplay between the executive being an executive but then you know, Mark Kelly also understands what it means to be an elective member of of of a federal of a federal chamber. And so I think that those that that governance experience is really important, and the certain policies and leadership roles that they've taken up on committees is also a big.

Part of this.

Part of this.

And I think the third part you got to think about the coalition that they bring in their states, whether you're thinking about moderate voters, whether you're thinking about swing voters, and in your base voters as well, what do they bring in terms of helping you to share that up. And we've seen that Vice President Harris has had tremendous enthusiasm in the base, but there is still that middle, right, there are still those moderate voters who I believe this vice presidential pick for her will have to help sure up Lauren.

And I think the third part you got to think about the coalition that they bring in their states, whether you're thinking about moderate voters, whether you're thinking about swing voters, and in your base voters as well, what do they bring in terms of helping you to share that up. And we've seen that Vice President Harris has had tremendous enthusiasm in the base, but there is still that middle, right, there are still those moderate voters who I believe this vice presidential pick for her will have to help sure up Lauren.

We've been talking about voter's propensity to trust Donald Trump more than Kamala Harris when it comes to economic issues, how to handle interest rates, the price of goods, the cost of services. There's a huge exception though, as we just identified, and that's healthcare costs. Kamala Harris is trusted by forty nine percent to Donald Trump's forty percent. Knowing he's been attacking the Affordable Care Act and has promised for years to put forth a proposal that would rival what many call Obamacare, to see actually to close the deal on that, to shore up this number and put up a credible plan.

We've been talking about voter's propensity to trust Donald Trump more than Kamala Harris when it comes to economic issues, how to handle interest rates, the price of goods, the cost of services. There's a huge exception though, as we just identified, and that's healthcare costs. Kamala Harris is trusted by forty nine percent to Donald Trump's forty percent. Knowing he's been attacking the Affordable Care Act and has promised for years to put forth a proposal that would rival what many call Obamacare, to see actually to close the deal on that, to shore up this number and put up a credible plan.

I think he would. But the thing about the healthcare numbers is I'm not sure that that's going to rise to a top three issue where they're going to spend a lot of time messaging about it. We consistently see in the polls that people are making their decision on the next president based on the economy, based on immigration, based on crime in their communities. And so while those top three, you know, it's kind of like the hierarchy of needs. While those top three are top of mind healthcare, unity, fear for democracy, a lot of these other things fall to the wayside. They may came up, came up in a debate, but we're not going to see the same impact that they had in Donald Trump's midterms. For example, when you know, there was like a big healthcare scare among seniors, and that really flipped some of those congressional districts for Democrats. So I'm not I don't think they're worried about it as much, but eventually he is going to have to address that because he's said multiple times that he doesn't want to take away healthcare. He wants to lower costs in those types of things, and he needs to say how he wants to do it.

I think he would. But the thing about the healthcare numbers is I'm not sure that that's going to rise to a top three issue where they're going to spend a lot of time messaging about it. We consistently see in the polls that people are making their decision on the next president based on the economy, based on immigration, based on crime in their communities. And so while those top three, you know, it's kind of like the hierarchy of needs. While those top three are top of mind healthcare, unity, fear for democracy, a lot of these other things fall to the wayside. They may came up, came up in a debate, but we're not going to see the same impact that they had in Donald Trump's midterms. For example, when you know, there was like a big healthcare scare among seniors, and that really flipped some of those congressional districts for Democrats. So I'm not I don't think they're worried about it as much, but eventually he is going to have to address that because he's said multiple times that he doesn't want to take away healthcare. He wants to lower costs in those types of things, and he needs to say how he wants to do it.

Well.

Well.

If we're thinking about healthcare policy, Jenee. Of course, it's been pointed out on that issue as well as others, including fracking, which our colleague Wendy just mentioned. When Harris was campaigning for president at the first time around in twenty nineteen, she was adopting some of these more progressive liberal policies. It does feel that in some ways she is walking back from them.

If we're thinking about healthcare policy, Jenee. Of course, it's been pointed out on that issue as well as others, including fracking, which our colleague Wendy just mentioned. When Harris was campaigning for president at the first time around in twenty nineteen, she was adopting some of these more progressive liberal policies. It does feel that in some ways she is walking back from them.

Now.

Now.

How should she be towing that line of still trying to attract those progressive voters that she was in that primary back in the twenty twenty cycle, versus trying to appeal to more moderates and without looking as though she's faltering on her own beliefs.

How should she be towing that line of still trying to attract those progressive voters that she was in that primary back in the twenty twenty cycle, versus trying to appeal to more moderates and without looking as though she's faltering on her own beliefs.

I think what's important here is to highlight what she said on the campaign trail in terms of her record, but I think it's also an ability for her, in a vice president to really embrace policies that may be a bit more popular in this moment, right, you have to be listening to the American voters and figuring out where the polling and the messaging is telling what the polling and the messaging is telling you. You know, I know that this is obviously the early days of the Harris campaign, but I think this is also a moment where there's probably a fair amount of message testing. There's probably a fair amount of them looking at where the electorates attitudes rests in terms of some of these more progressive and moderate policies, and how do they come down on a Harrish for president messaging strategy that really speaks to.

I think what's important here is to highlight what she said on the campaign trail in terms of her record, but I think it's also an ability for her, in a vice president to really embrace policies that may be a bit more popular in this moment, right, you have to be listening to the American voters and figuring out where the polling and the messaging is telling what the polling and the messaging is telling you. You know, I know that this is obviously the early days of the Harris campaign, but I think this is also a moment where there's probably a fair amount of message testing. There's probably a fair amount of them looking at where the electorates attitudes rests in terms of some of these more progressive and moderate policies, and how do they come down on a Harrish for president messaging strategy that really speaks to.

Where the voters are.

Where the voters are.

And I don't think that really abandons any of the progressive values and views that she's presented. And I don't think that you know, is pandering to moderates. I think it's looking at where are the accomplishments aligned with her ability to get things done, and how to strike a new message that is right dead in the center.

And I don't think that really abandons any of the progressive values and views that she's presented. And I don't think that you know, is pandering to moderates. I think it's looking at where are the accomplishments aligned with her ability to get things done, and how to strike a new message that is right dead in the center.

Of that.

Of that.

Smart talk with a great panel Jenny Wartel, Democratic Strategists, partner at ARC Initiatives. Thank you, Jenne, alongside Lauren Tomlinson, Republican Strategists, the head of Claffee Communications, and a great conversation for our viewers and listeners today on Balance of Power.

Smart talk with a great panel Jenny Wartel, Democratic Strategists, partner at ARC Initiatives. Thank you, Jenne, alongside Lauren Tomlinson, Republican Strategists, the head of Claffee Communications, and a great conversation for our viewers and listeners today on Balance of Power.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

We wait the FED decision at two pm Eastern times. We've discussed they are widely expected to hold rate study today, but there are some voices here in Washington that would like to see a cut happen now instead of waiting until September. That includes Senators Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, and Sheldon Whitehouse, who today Joe wrote a letter to German Powell, as we have seen them do for a few meetings in a row now, urging that the data suggests the fetch cut rates. Yeah.

We wait the FED decision at two pm Eastern times. We've discussed they are widely expected to hold rate study today, but there are some voices here in Washington that would like to see a cut happen now instead of waiting until September. That includes Senators Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, and Sheldon Whitehouse, who today Joe wrote a letter to German Powell, as we have seen them do for a few meetings in a row now, urging that the data suggests the fetch cut rates. Yeah.

Look, there are some on Wall Street kind of quietly hoping for that today too.

Look, there are some on Wall Street kind of quietly hoping for that today too.

Right.

Right.

You better believe Lindsay Owens has been making that call ever since we started talking with her. Several months ago, executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, former senior economic policy advisor to the aforementioned Elizabeth Warren lindsay, it's great to see you as we walk up to our special coverage here. What do you actually think will happen today? Is the conventional wisdom?

You better believe Lindsay Owens has been making that call ever since we started talking with her. Several months ago, executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, former senior economic policy advisor to the aforementioned Elizabeth Warren lindsay, it's great to see you as we walk up to our special coverage here. What do you actually think will happen today? Is the conventional wisdom?

Correct?

Correct?

Yeah, Look, the.

Yeah, Look, the.

Conventional wisdom is that they're going to hold steady.

Conventional wisdom is that they're going to hold steady.

But I think all signs are clearly indicating that it's time for rate cuts.

But I think all signs are clearly indicating that it's time for rate cuts.

In fact, it may be pastime for rate cuts.

In fact, it may be pastime for rate cuts.

When I zoom out and look at the big picture for American consumers, for American workers, for American families, all of the data is saying it's time to cut rates.

When I zoom out and look at the big picture for American consumers, for American workers, for American families, all of the data is saying it's time to cut rates.

Now.

Now.

We've got real softening in the labor market.

We've got real softening in the labor market.

Obviously, unemployment is low by historical standards, but we've seen it ticking up.

Obviously, unemployment is low by historical standards, but we've seen it ticking up.

We've seen those.

We've seen those.

Jabas claimed ticking up. We've seen wage growth softening. We're also seeing consumers burdened by this incredibly high interest rate environment. Most Americans are not buying houses with cash, they're not buying cars with cash. In fact, they're putting a fair amount of their monthly expenditures on credit. And when the cost of borrowing is up this high. That's really squeezing families, and you've got to start wondering whether the interest rate impacts on families are outweighing the inflation impacts on families.

Jabas claimed ticking up. We've seen wage growth softening. We're also seeing consumers burdened by this incredibly high interest rate environment. Most Americans are not buying houses with cash, they're not buying cars with cash. In fact, they're putting a fair amount of their monthly expenditures on credit. And when the cost of borrowing is up this high. That's really squeezing families, and you've got to start wondering whether the interest rate impacts on families are outweighing the inflation impacts on families.

So I think all signs are.

So I think all signs are.

Pointing towards rate cuts, and if we don't get that upside surprise today with an announcement of cuts, I think we better see a bigger set of cuts in September, something along the lines of fifty basis points.

Pointing towards rate cuts, and if we don't get that upside surprise today with an announcement of cuts, I think we better see a bigger set of cuts in September, something along the lines of fifty basis points.

Oh wow, Okay, Well, we'll see if Chairman Powell is willing to commit to something like that or just suggests that they'll be data dependent. But lindsay, considering you were just running us through data that you say does suggest the Fed should be in a position to ease here, the fact is the Fed has not prepared the market for that, right. Do you think this time would be different in any way that they would be willing to take the market by surprise.

Oh wow, Okay, Well, we'll see if Chairman Powell is willing to commit to something like that or just suggests that they'll be data dependent. But lindsay, considering you were just running us through data that you say does suggest the Fed should be in a position to ease here, the fact is the Fed has not prepared the market for that, right. Do you think this time would be different in any way that they would be willing to take the market by surprise.

Well, look, I think that the chair of the Federal Reserve has got to balance stable prices with maximum employment.

Well, look, I think that the chair of the Federal Reserve has got to balance stable prices with maximum employment.

That's his job, and I think doing that.

That's his job, and I think doing that.

Job well may require moving when the data indicates it's time to move. So you know, last time you know, at this time last year, the FED thought we'd be in about three and a half percent inflation, and we're actually closer to two.

Job well may require moving when the data indicates it's time to move. So you know, last time you know, at this time last year, the FED thought we'd be in about three and a half percent inflation, and we're actually closer to two.

And a half percent inflation.

And a half percent inflation.

So I worry that they are behind the eight ball here, And with every passing FOMC meeting where they don't move to correct for being behind the eight ball, the risks.

So I worry that they are behind the eight ball here, And with every passing FOMC meeting where they don't move to correct for being behind the eight ball, the risks.

Accumulate and compound.

Accumulate and compound.

And I think, you know, the biggest concern here is they put us in a recessionary environment and they're you know, and it's too late to course correct, and so much better to course correct early than late in my opinion.

And I think, you know, the biggest concern here is they put us in a recessionary environment and they're you know, and it's too late to course correct, and so much better to course correct early than late in my opinion.

When will we know? Lindsay, if it's too late.

When will we know? Lindsay, if it's too late.

Well, that's part of the problem here.

Well, that's part of the problem here.

You often don't know until you're until you're already sort of boiling, right, the sort of the frog isn't in a pot of water, and you don't realize your.

You often don't know until you're until you're already sort of boiling, right, the sort of the frog isn't in a pot of water, and you don't realize your.

Toast until you are.

Toast until you are.

And so that's why I think when you look at the big picture here, when you look at the data, you have to balance all of the information and what I'm seeing in the big picture for consumers, for workers, and for a recession risk all points towards cutting rates. Now, the other piece of data that I think we have to look at is what's driving the remaining portion of inflation, and here what we see is that the lie and share of it is coming from housing and energy, and both of these two markets, both of these two sectors are not benefiting from historically tight interest rates. If we want to bring more housing supply online, if we want to get housing starts up, we've got to bring interest rates down.

And so that's why I think when you look at the big picture here, when you look at the data, you have to balance all of the information and what I'm seeing in the big picture for consumers, for workers, and for a recession risk all points towards cutting rates. Now, the other piece of data that I think we have to look at is what's driving the remaining portion of inflation, and here what we see is that the lie and share of it is coming from housing and energy, and both of these two markets, both of these two sectors are not benefiting from historically tight interest rates. If we want to bring more housing supply online, if we want to get housing starts up, we've got to bring interest rates down.

And if we want to start transitioning.

And if we want to start transitioning.

To a more resilient and clean energy future, we've got to also bring that supply online, get those investments in clean energy online. And the interest rate environment that we're really laboring under and suffering under right now is moving us in the opposite direction on both of those counts.

To a more resilient and clean energy future, we've got to also bring that supply online, get those investments in clean energy online. And the interest rate environment that we're really laboring under and suffering under right now is moving us in the opposite direction on both of those counts.

Well, it is interesting to consider we got pending home sales data earlier this morning, Lindsay, which actually surprised to the upside in a big way, up four point eight percent month over month. The expectation was for one and a half percent. So maybe we are seeing some loosening up in a housing market that has been also very stuck for some time now. As we have that differential between mortgage rates you can get now and what you could get before this hiking cycle really started. Of course, we have to consider, as well, as we talk about often here on balance of power, that we are in the middle of an election cycle. If the FED is going to signal cutting in September, perhaps if your suggestion is correct as much as fifty basis points right before an election, we've seen elect officials suggest that would be viewed as politically motivated problematic. Do you think ultimately that bears weight with Jerown Powell and his colleagues.