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It's just about ten weeks to go until the election. Two weeks to go until we're supposed to see a presidential debate take place on ABC.
That's on September tenth.
And of course these weeks are sure to fly by because just to give you a sense of how quickly time is moving in this election cycle, it was five weeks ago that Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid, exiting the presidential race, making way for Kamala Harris, who, within those last five weeks her campaign says, has now raised over half a billion dollars four hundred, five hundred and forty million dollars to be exact, raised by her campaign and affiliated super pac. Eighty two million of that was raised at the DNC in Chicago last week. So it is a money race here that we are paying attention to and always with an eye on. It is Bloomberg's Gregory Cordy, who covered the White House in politics for US and is joining me now in studio here in Washington. So Gregory, of course, cash advantage is a big thing in the presidential campaign. We've seen Biden during the course of his now ended campaign out raising Trump and Trump outraising Biden.
It does feel like things have flip flopped a lot.
But with the kind of frenetic pace of fundraising we have seen so far from the Harris campaign, is it going to be possible for Donald Trump to reach a cash advantage once again?
Yeah, I'm glad you set up that context because that's exactly what I was going to bring to this. So the question that you asked, now, where do we go from here? And I think that's an open question. Look, both of these campaigns, it's part of the modern political presidential campaign game to seize on a moment. And one way to quantify how big a moment is is to talk about your small dollar fundraising. So when Trump was leading in the fundraising, it was because he was being indicted or convicted and people rallied around him. President Biden had a big fundraising a week after his State of the Union address. And here we have Kamala Harris being the new fresh face in this race. Right, she enters the race, she gets a bounce, she continues to get that bounced through the convention. As you said, more than half a billion dollars in just one month. I mean, let's just wrap our heads around how astronomical that is. A few months ago, if a candidate had, you know, one hundred million, one hundred and fifty million, we would think of that as a big month. So this is huge. And what the Harris campaign would point to is the first time donors, because those donors suggest room to grow. They're not at the thirty three hundred dollars person limit. Presumably these are often fifty dollars, So maybe they'll give fifty dollars a yen next month, and and again, and so these are encouraging numbers for the Harris campaign. The question is, can Trump find some moment for him to rally around And it could be the debate, it could be some other moment, some October surprise that we haven't quite We don't know yet, but that's certainly going to be the game for both these candidates.
Well, I'm glad you point out that the campaign did emphasize that about a third of these donors of the five hundred and forty million dollars were first timers. They also said two thirds were women. Gregory and I wonder how telling that is when we've been talking about the battle for women, specifically in the suburbs, and how pivotal they could be and ultimately deciding which way this election goes.
That is remarkable. I've been doing this long enough that a few decades ago, when you would see a campaign contribution, it would often been be done in the husband's name, but they would both of them would contribute as sort of a household. Now we're seeing women donate in their own names, and very often you might see the husband donate into one party and the wife donating to the other party and canceling each other out. It is remarkable and it demonstrates how big this gender gap is growing. Even before Kamala Harris got into the race, we were seeing a growing divide between men and women in America that has been growing for decades, but really Donald Trump has accelerated it. Now Kamala Harris is in the race and obviously talking about a lot of women's issues. She's talking about reproductive rights, but she's also talking about childcare. She's talking about things that will appeal to that holy grail of swing voter, the suburban woman.
Well, and of course she's not just talking about it on stage, as we saw her do in Chicago or in her various campaign appearances. She's also taking a lot of that messaging to the airwaves, which raises the question, Gregory, about it's one thing to raise all the money, it's another thing to spend it. And the pace of spending matters here as well. Right, we have seen this campaign, and Biden's campaign before this, shelling out more cash than Donald Trump's was or it is now.
Yeah, And the feeling when it was Biden's spending that money is that he needed to make up some ground, and soon he left Kamala Harris with about a ninety two million dollar war chest. She's obviously built and expanded upon that. But the candidate dollars, For as much as we talk about superpacks, the candidate dollars are so valuable because under Federal Election Commission and Federal Communication Commission rules, the TV stations have to give the lowest best deal to the candidate campaigns. They get the time blocked off for them first, and so those dollars go a lot further. Super PACs can do a lot in terms of filling in the gaps, but it's really these campaign dollars that go the furthest What we are going to see though, in a lot of these swing states, especially Pennsylvania, where the lion's share of the money is being spent right now, is you might get to the part where there's just no ad inventory on broadcast stations.
To it's all bought up.
If you're a mattress store or a car dealer in Pennsylvania, you may just take the month of October off because you you may not be able to buy an ad. That the airwaves are going to be so saturated with political ads, I'm already hearing it. I stopped by the Pennsylvania delegation at the Democratic Convention last week and they are already just inundated back to back to back.
Ads well on a subject of as it calls to mind. During the Super Bowl, we saw a few political ads as well. One of them that perhaps got the most attention was from RFK Junior campaign that now is put on pause.
He dropped out or not?
I Guess officially dropped out but suspended his campaign on Friday, endorsed former President Trump. Do we have a sense yet of what real difference that's likely to make where the people who were suggesting in polls were going to vote for him go Now there's.
A Republican answer to this question. There's a democratic answer this question. I'll give you my answer to this question.
That's the one, which is.
That I don't know that it makes a whole lot of difference. What we saw before he dropped out was that he was taking roughly equally from Republicans and Democrats. The Republicans will point to some numbers that he was taking a little bit more from Trump maybe, and so this this advantages him, but that was all within the margin of error. But also keep in mind that a good number of Kennedy supporters, maybe forty percent, were people who said they wouldn't show up to vote if it were just Trump versus Harris. These were a lot of double haters, and they were double haters for a reason. So the big question is going to be, just because RFK endorses Trump, will his followers go with him to Trump? And that's something we're just gonna have to watch in the polls for the next few weeks. But keep in mind, you know, Kennedy had started with maybe at he topped out it maybe fifteen percent. Some poles had him as high as twenty. By the time he dropped out, he was under five percent. So we're not talking about a huge voting block in some of these swing states. It could make a difference, and that's why I think he made the decision he did.
All right, Bloomberg White House and Politics reporter Gregory Cordy, thank you, as always for joining me. Now to continue this conversation, we turned to Matt Bennett. He is executive vice president at Third Way. Matt, of course we caught up in Chicago briefly as well, and I asked you about RFK Junior at that time, on the eve of his suspension of his campaign.
He now, of course has done so.
And I wonder if your answer agrees with Gregory's that it's not actually clear this is going to make much difference at all.
Yeah, I fundamentally agree with that. However, I will give you the democratic answer. As Gregory noted, there are two and that is what we really don't know is the scale of this RFK could be a problem for Trump for two reasons. First, he is kind of repellent to a lot of women. He has admitted to sexually assaulting his kid's babysitter and has said there's probably other women out there that have come forward with allegations against him that he admits. And the second thing is he said he would sign a federal abortion band when he was still running for president, So those are not things designed to attract women. Also, the guy is just super weird. I mean, over the weekend a story came out about how he took his kids down to the beach, cut the head off a beached whale, put it on the roof of his car, and had his kids put plastic bags on their heads to keep the whale juice off of their heads. I mean, he is a weirdo, and if Trump and Vans are trying to avoid that label, maybe bring an RFK on wasn't such a great idea.
Okay, So now we have the whale story, we have the bear story, we have the photo next to a barbecue dog at one point many years ago, Matt.
All of these animal reminders.
It is worth pointing out, of course, that you third way also played a role in vanquishing if you will, No Labels or at least their efforts this election cycle out of concern that they could actually be a big spoiler. There was the spoiler concern about RFK Junior as well, and arguably if you listen to him and is running meet Nicole Shanahan. It was the idea that they were turning into a spoiler that impacted their decision.
Here.
What does it say to you that now there is really no third party option, that this is ultimately going to be a choice Trump Harris or stay home for the American voter.
Well, first of all, I'm very happy that the major third party candidates at No Labels then RFK now out of the race. I think it makes it much clearer for voters. However, there are a couple left. Jill Stein is still running as a Green Party candidate. That might not strike most listeners as very important, but she had an impact on the outcome of the election in twenty sixteen, even getting only one or two percent of the vote in swing states. If she does that again, that could matter. So we're going to keep the pressure on and make sure that voters understand who Jill Stein is, and that she's not a safe place for them to park their vote if they're unhappy with both Harris and Trump.
We consider where votes move when candidates leave the race. It does take me back to the conversation we were having in March after Super Tuesday when Nicki Haley dropped out this idea, where does the nicky Haley voter go? Now that we are seeing Harris pick up in polls, in some cases substantially higher than Joe Biden was pulling in July when he dropped out of the race, does that suggest to you that maybe some of those nicky Haley voters are indeed going to her as that other choice or do we not know that?
Answered definitively yet.
Well, there's certainly there some. I mean, we saw them at the convention in t shirts that said Haley voter for Harris, So we just don't know the magnitude of that. My guess is that most of the reason that the polls have tightened is because the people that we refer to as the double haters, people that weren't happy with both Trump and Biden, have almost have overwhelmingly moved towards Harris. They have gone from something like twenty two percent of the electric down to blow ten and that can be the reason for the difference. Some of them may have voted for Haley in the primaries, some didn't. But there is a real battle on for those people, people who may never have voted for a Democrat before but just can't bring themselves to vote for Trump for all of the reasons that Harris are and others particulated.
So what wins that battle, Matt? Is it money that helps or is it actual people that helps? And I asked this because as I was just talking to Gregory about the big fundraising hall for Harris in the month and changed since Biden dropped out. Yes, it's over half a billion dollars, but her campaign also pointed to more than two hundred thousand people signing up as volunteers.
What matters more?
Oh, well, there's no doubt that people matter more than money, especially in presidential races. In modern presidential campaigns, no one loses or wins because they have more money, because both sides have so much that they basically hit a point of diminishing returns in the hand states that really matter. If you live in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, you have my condolences. You're in for hellish several months of television viewing and they're going to see plenty of ads. What matters most is hearing from trusted messengers, and what that means is mostly people in their networks, people that they know, their neighbors, their colleagues, their friends, their family. And the fact that so many new people are coming to the Harris campaign to volunteer is enormously important. Now, a lot of those two hundred thousand do not live in those seven states, and they can be helpful, but not as helpful as the people who do. So we really got a hope that people rally to her in the places that matter.
The most well and in those places that matter remote, those swing states, we're seeing the candidates criss crossing them this week. Trump's planning to go to Michigan and Pennsylvania, Harrison Walls. Later on this week, we'll be doing a bus tour of Georgia, as some Poland have suggested, suggests Matt that the Sun Belt is more in play than it was for Joe Biden. If you were advising the campaign on where they should be divvying up their time their resources, be it people, money, or otherwise, should they be focusing a lot of energy on the Sun Belt or should they concentrate in the rest belt where we're seeing Trump advance spend a lot of time.
I think they got to do both for a couple of reasons. First of all, unlike when Biden was running, as you note, Harris definitely has a shot in North Carolina and Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, and winning some or all of those states could be the difference even if we end up losing one of the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. So I do think they have the resources, they have the surrogates they can send into these places. I think it's a good idea. And remember when she campaigns in Georgia, that means Trump has to as well. If one campaign ignores the state, the other that is stronger there can do the same. But now we're going to make the Trump people spend money in time in Georgia as well. So I think it's a good investment, all right.
Matt Bennett, executive vice president at Third Way. Always great to have you here on Balance of Power. Thank you so much for joining me. That does seem to be part of the strategy for both campaigns forced them to spend money in places that they may not want to or may not have planned to as substantially, it's going to be something we continue to follow.
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Back in Washington after a marathon week last week in Chicago at the Democratic National Convention, and at that convention, the Democrats focused a lot on this notion of freedom, freedom when it comes to a number of things, but reproductive rights specifically something that entering the conversation. Remember when Kamala Harris was accepting the Democratic presidential nomination. In her speech, as she was talking about abortion rights, she suggested that Trump and Republicans are quote out of their minds when it comes to that issue. The question is whether their minds can actually change. And perhaps the appearance of JD. Vance, of course, the Republican vice presidential nominee on Meet the Press yesterday when he talked about abortion. As an indication of that, this is what he had to say.
I can absolutely commit that Kristen and Donald Trump has been as clear about that as possible. I think it's important to step back and say, what is Donald Trump actually said on the abortion question, and how is it different from what Kamala Harrison the Democrats have said. Donald Trump wants to end this cultural war over this particular topic. If excuse me of California wants to have a different abortion policy from Ohio, then Ohio has to respect California and California has.
To respect Ohio.
Donald Trump's view is that we want the individual states and their individual cultures and the unique political sensibilities to make these decisions.
Now, what the senator said he could commit to was this notion that Donald Trump would not sign into law a federal abortion ban. Later on in the program on Meet the pet Press, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren joined and she said, quote, American women are not stupid, and we are not going to trust the futures of our daughters and granddaughters to two men who have openly bragged about blocking access to abortion for women all across this country. It's on this note we assemble our political panel today, two women, in fact, Jeanie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributor, contributor and senior Democracy fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, together today with Republican strategist Brittany Martinez, who of course is founder at Espina in Company. Thank you both so much for joining me. Genie, we'll come to you first because it is worth pointing out that during the first Trump administration back in twenty eighteen, and I'd like to thank my producer CC for flagging this this morning, Donald Trump was encouraging the Senate to pass a twenty week abortion band so they could send it to his desk for him to sign. Should voters believe that he wouldn't pursue something similar this time around, or should some kind of evolution on this issue be allowed?
Yeah, I think on both sides, we are hearing the sound of everybody desperately trying to run to the center. I mean, at the Democratic Convention, we heard the Democrats Kamala Harris, it was as if she never ran in twenty nineteen, moving right to the center. And we see Donald Trump and jd Vance doing this as well, and that's what that interview and Meet the Press was all about. We've seen Donald Trump screaming on truth social that women will be safe. I'm great with women. They love me. So they are desperately trying to go to the center because Republicans know on this issue of abortion, regardless of what you think of it personally, electorally, it has been a big problem for Republicans since Roe was overturned. So can you trust him? I think Elizabeth Warren suggested, no, can do when they've been bragging about it. But the reality is he and Kamala Harris are doing what they have to do electorally to try to show people that they are moderate in the middle and not to worry about things that you know, their party and they in the past have said and now they are running away from So.
If everybody's rushing to the middle, Brittany, and we include the Republican ticket in that, if genius is to be believed, does that actually risk backfiring? If Donald Trump is rushing toward the middle, or jd Vance is doing so perhaps on his behalf to try to attract more moderates, do they risk alienating what comprises a decent portion of the Republican base, which is pro life, who already were feeling like the campaign was kind of betraying them, and for example, adopting a policy platform that didn't call explicitly at the RNC for a federal abortion band. Does this risk backfiring? Is this something that can work?
I mean, I think that's probably always a possibility. But here's what we have to keep in mind. According to research excuse me, Pew research pulling from earlier this year, sixty three percent of Americans think that abortion should be legal in all or in some cases, whereas it's only thirty six percent the other way around when you break it up by party.
Obviously Republicans are more.
Conservative on that issue, of course, but also if you look back to earlier this year during the Republican primary, Nikki Haley was our best messenger when it came to abortion and pro life issues. And I think what you're going to see over the next few years is Republicans moving more towards those talking points. And yes, of course there are those supporters who are very conservative on this issue, but I would also say that if you will, if you're comfortable getting some of the Republican policies that maybe we'll start moving a little bit more progressively rather than the Democrats who are way more liberal on this issue. I think that those voters are still going to stay with the Republicans.
Well, I do wonder as well.
And this isn't specific to the abortion issue, but if we are allowing which perhaps we should allowing candidates to change their tune on various issues, perhaps it's abortion for Donald Trump and JD.
Vance.
But of course they've been criticizing Kamala Harris on a number of flip flops that she has made based on as Genie was alluding to what she was campaigning on in twenty nineteen in her short lived first presidential run versus now, be it on healthcare, be it on fracking, for example, something critically important to the swing state of Pennsylvania Brittany. Are Republicans still going to be able to effectively message that she's a flip flopper on the issues if they are doing the same.
I mean, I think so there is always an argument to be made, right and when it comes to this issue, I mean, I know we're speaking beyond abortion now as well, but she hasn't ran as a presidential candidate in what is it five years at this point, and so you are allowed to evolve your opinions, I think. But Republicans are going to hit on the flip flop. I'm sure Democrats will hit on the flip flop. Whoever is able to kind of trate the message to Americans in the best way, they're the ones who are going to be the most successful.
I mean, it's a messaging game at the end of the day.
Well, and it's also about where you take that message. Of course, we're going to see both of these candidates and the tickets as a whole crisscrossing the swing states today, Donald Trump going or not today but this week in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Harrison Walls will be on a bus tour of Georgia later this week. But Jeanie There has been reporting over the course of the last few days that Donald Trump's getting ready to rev things up. He is going to be much more active on the campaign trail as he's worried about losing ground to Harris. Is it better or worse for the Harris campaign to see more of Donald Trump? Knowing that in a number of appearances recently he has lost discipline and is focusing more on personal attacks than on policy issues. Does him actually being out there more help Harris or hurt her?
You know, I have always been of the opinion that the more Trump, the better for the Democrats, particularly because he just is so undisciplined, you know, his campaign. Most Republicans want him to address the issues. On most issues, he has a very good record that appeals to people. When you talk about the economy, when you talk about immigration, when you talk about crime, most people trust him on those things. And yet he goes to these rallies and he says, do you want me to talk about personal issues or the issues topical issues? And they scream personal issues, and then he goes on the attack, and so he robs himself of the ability to be disciplined and to take Harrison on all those issues that you and Brittany were just talking about, from cracking and energy all the way through to the economy, taxes and everything else. So I think if he is out there in these big rallies and he is his old, undisciplined self, it is better for Harris. By the same token, I was surprised Harris was off the campaign trail after her very good convention, I thought, very much like Tim Waltz said, you can sleep when you're dead. You've got to be out there when the this type. I guess she was preparing for the debate, but I think she has got to be out there. But for her, it's got to be out there talking to reporters and answering some tough questions. So I think they both have challenges on either side.
Well, yeah, Jeanie to that point, didn't she say that before the month of August was out she was going to sit down for one of those big interviews. We don't know of anything on the books yet.
Yeah, nothing we've heard of. I keep hearing it's going to be this week and everybody, and I'm sure you, Kayley, have bitt it on come talk to us. Everybody is asking her to come talk to them. We don't know where she'll be, but I really believe she's got to get out there in a tough interview sooner rather than later.
Yes, again, and I will repeat this every chance I get. Vice President Harris, you have a standing invitation to join us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Of course, the Republican ticket does as well, we'd love to talk to any of you as where you're now just ten weeks out from the election, so Jeannie or Britney.
Rather to the point Genie was just making.
Going back to Donald Trump being more active on the trail, this idea that he has lacked discipline or perhaps is being very disciplined, and he's shucking off the advice of his advisors and doing exactly the opposite of what it seems they're telling him to do. If you were on that team, and I know you're no fan of Donald Trump, but you are a Republican strategist, how do they work around the candidate here? What is the best way for the campaign, the enterprise of it, to move forward over the course of the next ten weeks.
I love how you put that he is very disciplined of being undisciplined.
I've never heard that before. It's brilliant.
Yes, you know, and even we've kind of seen the contradictionary over the weekend right where they're trying to push back on like no no mikes during the breaks on and he was, you know, on films saying like, oh I don't care, like we can have him on, but like but I don't it.
Doesn't matter to me. I'll do whatever that is not helpful.
I mean, I guess that's all you can keep doing is pushing that messaging and trying to stay in control of like the social media, the truth of the Twitter, those sorts of things.
But this is what you have to keep in mind.
People love, like what Genie said earlier about the personal tax they love that stuff. The magabase loves that. We have seen him be a little bit more disciplined and stick to the script in the binder. But what you lose in that is his enthusiasm and vigor that you see during the tax. I mean, it feels like a five year old who has been told by his teacher that he has to speak during the school assembly and he just doesn't want to. So as little time in those long winded press conferences as possible, trying to take control of the Twitter, and you know, trying to have to shift back to messaging when Trump ultimately inevitably doesn't say what he should be saying.
Well, So, Genie, is that why we're seeing the Harris campaign push for Mike's live during the debate on September tenth, not follow the rules of the Biden Trump debate that we saw on June twenty seventh, where their mics were cut off after their time was up. They want his mic on because they're hoping he slips up.
Right, Absolutely, I think they would love nothing more than a repeat of the first debate in twenty twenty. I don't know if my hurt can take it, but I think that's what they're going for. And to Britney's point, the juxtaposition here is just incredible. Donald Trump on the teleprompter looks like he is a hostage somewhere, whereas Kamala Harris, they say, can't get her off the teleprompter. So we have two very different candidates. And boy, the Democrats want him on that mic saying anything outrageous they can get him to say for that debate, if there is a debate. I should add.
Well that at this hour is the big if.
Brittany, We'll talk more about this in the next hour when you'll be back with us. But Donald Trump suggesting maybe he's not going to show up on that ABC debate on September tenth, do you buy it?
Is he going to miss that opportunity.
I think he'll be there.
I think he's just a showman, and he likes to exploit the narrative, and so I think he'll be there. But he's just using this time to sort of, you know, get under people's skin.
Maybe, but he'll be.
There all right.
Well.
Brittany Martinez Espina and Company founder and Republican strategist, and Jeanie Shanze, no Bloomberg Politics contributor and Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress.
Thank you both.
Of course, I'll have much more with both Jeanie and Brittany next hours. We continue to keep our eye on the campaign trail and of course on the money as well. As we have told you this hour, Kamala Harris has crossed the half a billion dollar fundraising mark five hundred and forty million dollars to be exact, and her presidential campaign is only five weeks old. At this point, It's only been five weeks since Shoe Biden left the race. This is a fast moving campaign. Something tells me the next ten weeks are going to move even faster. We're just seventy days out. Everyone from this election will continue to have full coverage of it for you here on Bloomberg and of course it's not just our political panel that will help us be covering that. Will speak next hour to Samara Klar of the University of Arizona. Take a specific look at that swing state in the Sun Belt that it does seem Kamala Harris and Tim Walls are targeting more of and we'll keep an eye on the Middle East as well. In the next hour, I'll be joined by Natasha Hall at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. As Israel launched preemptive strikes against Hesbula in Lebanon over the weekend, so much more is still ahead. In the second hour, A Balance of Power.
Stick with us.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, car Play and then Roun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Does feel like a huge part of the city today is still in recovery mode, trying to catch back up on sleep and recharge after last week's very busy Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Certainly an energetic event, I think it's fair to say, and also one that proved to be quite the boon in terms of the money game for Kamala. Harrison affiliated super packs eighty two million dollars raise last week alone, and that brings their total hall, according to the campaign, to five hundred and forty million dollars since Joe Biden dropped out of the race. That of course happened just five weeks ago. We are talking a frenetic pace of fundraising here that is basically unmatched in modern political history. And the campaign, of course is ongoing now with just seven weeks to go until election day and two weeks until a presidential debate that we think is still on, even though Donald Trump is casting a little bit of doubt on that within the last twenty four hours. So here it cover it all for us. As Laura Davisson, she is Bloomberg a politics editor and is here with me in studio on Bloomberg TV and Radio. So if we could just begin with the money, because of course that is crucially important in a race that is probably going to turn out to be very, very expensive. We were talking about before Joe Biden dropped out of the race, how Donald Trump is actually the one that was turning out to have the bigger cash advantage. Kamala Harris has been able to flip that script in a very short period of time. The question is can this keep going or is she about to tap everything she was going to tap and perhaps tap it too soon.
It's unlikely she's tapped everything she has to tap, you know, particularly as she continues to rise in the polls. Donors like to bet on winners and continue to spend when they see signs that their investment is doing something. But just the number five hundred and forty million dollars, that is a huge figure. Biden's twenty twenty campaign raised just over a billion dollars, So just in the span of one month, she's raised more than fifty percent of what Biden raised in the course of an entire campaign, when there was a lot of money, there was a lot of interest, there was a lot of enthusiasm behind Biden at that time. So it's just a really incredible amount of money that she's brought in the door and Trump has not been able to match that at all. He's been raising kind of what a normal campaign was somewhere around you know, one hundred, one hundred and fifty million dollars a month and she's at you know, over five hundred million.
Well, and it's not just the actual dollar figures that her campaign is touting.
It's people too.
This notion that two hundred thousand volunteers have signed up. How powerful is that that is not just the ability to buy ad space on the airwaves, also get people to knock on doors and to actually do some of the groundworking that might be necessary to turn people out.
That's incredibly helpful. We'll get out the vote type efforts. It also you know, and this is something they talked a lot about at the convention. If if you have people who are enthusiastic and excited, they're talking about it with their friends, they're talking about it with their family and making sure people have a plan to vote and actually go vote on election day, that's the enthusiasm that really kind of helps. You know, Remember, these elections are going to be decided by ten thousand votes in some of the key swing states, so you know, having you know, certain communities that make sure that you know, elderly relatives have a way to get to the polls that can make a difference.
Well, and as we talk about the swing states, about Harrison Walls will be in Georgia on a bus tour later this week. Donald Trump himself will be kind of criss crossing. He was in Virginia earlier today. He's going to go to Michigan and Pennsylvania this week as well, And all of the reporting indicates that he's getting ready to ramp things up in a pretty material way, that he's going to be spending more time on the trail, perhaps less time at his properties, be it in Florida or New Jersey. Laura, I would imagine it's no coincidence that that's coming at a time where Harris is raising so much money and rising at least from where Joe Biden was in polls. How how is Donald Trump planning to counter this? Is it literally just getting out there and going to the states themselves.
That's that's one of his strategies, you know.
He you know, up until you know, about two or three weeks ago, had been doing one or two events a week. Last week he did something like seven or eight events a week. So he's really seeing that, you know, having a younger opponent, having both Harris and Walls who are out there on the campaign trail and doing multiple events a day. He's got to be able to match that. There's also some concerns sort of among his staff that having him at mar A Lago or at Bedminster, you know, just golfing and stewing too much is also a problem. They want to get him out there in front of voters, though they're changing a strategy a little bit. They're not doing some of the big, big rallies that he's done before, partially because those are really expensive. That also they want to keep him on message, so they're doing smaller events, you know, at manufacturing plants, you know, at sheriff's office, to talk about the border, to talk about the economy. That hasn't you know, worked exactly the way they wanted to. He's still been, you know, talking about the personal attacks. Even one rally last week he pulled the crowd and said, hey, if you want me to focus on the personal attacks or not, and you know, had the crowd cheer for which option they preferred, and the applause was way louder for you know, continuing on the personal insults.
Yeah, perhaps it's more entertaining. And I take your point about them not wanting to see or them being his staffers and those advising him not wanting to see him just hold up in one place doing for too long. But also, isn't there kind of an argument to be made that the more Trump is out there, the higher likelihood it is that he goes off script, that he loses that discipline, Like some of the moments may not be so positive that he's generating.
That is true.
However, he can also be on true social all day and night, you know, making some of those same things. So even one of the remarks that got the most pick up over the weekend was him talking about how he's going to be a champion for women's reproductive rights.
Yes you're reading that.
You might think, oh, this sounds like a Democrat. No, this is Donald Trump who is now deciding he wants to pivot his messaging on abortion. This is both of course outraging Democrats who say, wait, this is our issue. You know, Donald Trump doesn't support this, as well as allies saying, hey, I thought this was the pro life Republican Party. What happened to that?
Well, and Jadie Vance on Meet the Press on Sunday suggested that Donald Trump would not sign into law a federal ban on abortion, despite what Donald Trump said he would do when he was actually president back in twenty eighteen. Elizabeth Warren later came on the program and said women don't trust Trump Advance on that issue effectively. But Jade Advance did sit down for that interview. Kamala Harris, as the Trump Advance ticket, will be very quick to point out, has not yet done so. She said she would do it, but the month of August being over, this is the last week of August. Laura, do we have any idea when this is going to happen.
We have not had any indication that this is going to happen. She's also said she sit down with the National Association of Black Journalists. That's another group that you know, Trump made a lot of headlines and you know when he went in front of them. So the time is is sort of now for her to you know, schedule something to show, hey, look, I can have these unscripted moments.
It's also might behoove.
Her because she's got this debate allegedly on September tenth.
We'll see if it happens.
There's been a little bit of back and forth between the camps today on whether this will actually come to fruition. But it's a good test, you know, having to go out there and get pressured on what maybe some weak points for the campaign.
Well, I'm glad you brought that up, because Donald Trump, of course appeared to be watching ABC News yesterday didn't necessarily like what he saw. He was on True Social suggesting why would I debate on this network?
Then we understood that there was a bit of.
An issue happening between the two camps as to whether or not the microphone should be hot the whole time or cut off after your time was up, as we saw on June twenty seventh when Biden and Trump debated.
Are these real sticking points that realistically.
Could result in this debate not happening, though Laura, is either candidate going to be willing to give up the opportunity to address each other and the American people on stage two weeks from now.
It's highly unclear if this debate is going to happen. Harris seems more committed to it, and in fact, she wants Trump's mike to be unmuted throughout the entire time. Remember the Biden camp one of the exact opposite. They wanted the mics to be muted. Now it's Trump's side that wants them to be muted. So it's a little bit, you know, both sides are kind of flip flopping back on the rules. You know, it seems like Trump personally is the one who is more concerned about being out there. Said he wouldn't debate, then he said he wanted debate, and now he's saying won't debate.
We'll see.
Harris has said she's going to show up on September tenth, no matter what, we'll see.
That's just two weeks away, it is, indeed, so we'll see. Indeed.
Laura Davison, who of course is an editor of politics for US here at Bloomberg, thank you so much for joining me. And an issue that likely would come up in the debate and came up at the Democratic National Convention as well of the ongoing war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. Harris did make reference to that in her acceptance speech, as she said that she and Biden are working toward a ceasfire deal, but also said that ultimately what she wants to see is freedom and security and self determination for the Palestinian people. That was a phrase or a sentence that got loud roars and applause from the crowd gathered there in Chicago. I would point out as well that there were not as disruptive protests in Chicago a pro to Palestinian protesters as some feared going into it. All that said, things continue in the Middle East to catch our attention, including this weekend Israel launching what it described as a preemptive strike against Hesbola targets in southern Lebanon. This is, of course, as we were all waiting for retaliation from both Hesbelon potentially Iran itself for the assassinations of a Hesblah commander Antamas's political leader in Tehran last month. So for more on this, we turned to Natasha Hall. She is a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Natasha, it's a lot to discuss, but if we could first focus on the strikes Israel conducted over the weekend. They described them as preemptive, but were they also escalatory.
That's a great question. I mean, what Israel ended up saying was that these were preemptive strikes, that they had gotten word or they had gotten intelligence that Hezbulah was about to launch a major attack, and that this preemptive strike sort of preempted this attack from Hezbullah, which would have launched thousands of rockets into Israel. We still saw attacks from Hesbulah hundreds of rockets and drones towards Israel, and they were meant to target a military base within Israel itself, at least according to Hesbalah sources. And so there was a very very heightened escalation in the early morning hours of Sunday. But it's unclear if this was escalatory or not, but military analysts are saying that this was essentially effective in terms of deterrence.
Okay, So if it was effective deterrence, is it effective at deterring more than just what was understood to be an eminent strike by Israeli intelligence? And by that I mean if they were specifically going after Hesbela missile launchers. Did it take out enough capability that Hesbelah poses less of a threat to Israel now if it decides it wants to try retaliation again.
Well, I mean Hesbela is one of the is the best armed non state actor perhaps in the world. So it has hundreds of thousands of drones and rockets, so this doesn't necessarily wipe up out their capabilities, and they've been able to rebuild their capabilities quite quickly with the support of Iran. So I wouldn't say that this is a long term deterrent strategy, but what it was was a way for both Israel and has Blah to say that they did something in the aftermath of the assassination of Hasbalah leader of Wad Shukur late last month, and also HEMS leader Ismailhaniya and Tehran that said, Iran still has not conducted its retaliatory at strike for that assassination the way that they had promised to. So it's unclear if this is a peace for the long run or if this is just a momentary pause at the moment, most people believe it could be just a momentary pause, but at least long enough for people to go back to their normal lives.
Well, and so this notion about Iran potentially deciding to take retaliatory measures itself. When we saw Iran launch the attempted strikes on Israel back in April, the drones and the missiles that were largely intercepted, everybody said, well, Iran didkind of telegraph what it was going to do and sending those slow drones first, so there was warning that it was coming. Now, Israeli intelligence picked up that Hesbelo was getting ready to strike and tried to counteract that before it even could happen. Does that suggest that Iran potentially is going to trying to avoid that same ending try to actually land a blow against Israel this time?
It's possible.
I mean, it would make them extremely vulnerable to a wide scale attack by Israel. We now have two US carrier strike groups in the Middle East at the moment, but it's difficult to remain on high alert for a very long time, and so it's probably Iran's strategy to wait this out a little bit until that high alert kind of diminishes. And that's an effective strategy as well, because if they can connect it to the failure of ceasefire talks, which we haven't discussed yet, but ceasefire talks remain ongoing, but without any kind of conclusion. In fact, there's been an escalation in Gaza of Israeli attacks there, so Iran would could effectively point to that failure and the assassination attempt in the weeks ahead when it goes ahead with some kind of retaliatory strike, but it needs to be careful because it does not have the competitive edge the way that Israel does well.
Natasha, I do want to talk about those ceasefire talks, especially given the description we got on the progress from Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor who spoke in Canada over this weekend.
Take a listen.
It is incumbent on all parties in the region to work towards de escalation and stability, and so we are feverishly working in Cairo as we speak with our team and the teams of the other mediators as well as with the Israelis to get to a ceasefire and hostage deal.
Natasha, does it feel to you like all of this feverish work is going somewhere.
It seems like there's feverish work to prevent a regional escalation, and there's certainly diplomats that are working on the ground NonStop on these talks. But we've been talking about the same sticking points in these ceasefire negotiations for months now, and some of that is the control of the Philadelphi Corridor, which lands between Gaza and Egypt and the Netserene Corridor, which is sort of halfway between the Gaza strip. But in the meantime, Israel has ordered an evacuation of areas previously described as humanitarian areas, and this is after people have been displaced dozens and dozens of times, and we have reports of polio breaking out in Gaza. So this feverish diplomacy that we've been hearing about for months seems to be delayed. Hamas has left Cairo, where the negotiations were happening, saying that they resented the fact that Israel was trying to change the stipulations of previous potential agreements in July. So it remains to be seen. I think Metnyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, also has to deal with multiple constituents, those on the far right who refuse any kind of ceasefire negotiations, and the rest of the country, which frankly wants a pause to this fighting.
And Natasha, we just have a minute left. But I do wonder about the role of the US here and whether it continually is getting ahead of itself. Joe Biden at the end of May outlined this multi step plan, saying that this was the agreement in parties just needed to sign off. It obviously didn't happen. They're still working on the same framework now than Anthony Blincoln last week suggested Israel has agreed to this, making it seem like the finish line was in sight, and yet it very clearly is not. Does the US need to stop trying to paint this as more done than it is in public?
I think their strategy has been trying to push Natanyahu by going public with these kinds of agreements and make it seem essentially inevitable that there's a ceasefire agreement in place. And of course there's political reasons for this as well. We have a presidential election very soon, and so getting a ceasefire agreement or acting like a ceasefire agreement is imminent, is in their political interests. But it remains to be seen if there is an actual sort of military pressure put on Israel by the United States, if Israel would actually agree to this nnya who has a lot of political considerations which would potentially prevent him from doing so, And so if there isn't more pressure applied there, it remains to be seen if there will be any kind of substantive ceasefire agreement in the upcoming weeks.
All right, Natasha, thanks as always for joining us. Natasha Hall, Senior Fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Always appreciate your insight. Thank you for joining us. Right here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
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It's a week in which we will see the presidential tickets crisscrossing a number of the swing states that ultimately could decide the outcome of this election. Donald Trump and Jade Vance will be in Michigan and Pennsylvania this week, while Kamala Harris and Tim Walls later on this week will be in Georgia doing a bus tour of the state. Interesting to see the Harris Walls ticket focusing their time in the week after the Democratic National Convention in the Sun Belt. Georgia of course, is part of that, as are other states, including North Carolina and Arizona, where Harris is pulling better than Joe Biden was when he left the race just five weeks ago. So it's to the sun Sun Belt we go.
Now.
Samara Klar is with me.
She is a professor of public policy and government at the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy. Rather, Samara is always great to have you as we look specifically at Arizona, and of course we look back to the New York Times Ciana pol that came out last weekend that showed Harris at fifty and Trump at forty five. Do you buy that? Do you buy that something has fundamentally changed to put a state that seemed frankly out of play for Joe Biden in play and potentially looking like Kamala Harris could lock it up.
Yeah, I mean sure, I absolutely buy it. You know, before there was the switch to Harris. I don't think we should overstate how dramatic this change has been. Biden did win Arizona in twenty twenty. Of course, previous to him stepping aside, he was down in the polls, but typically that by about four ish five percentage points, So it wasn't landslide blowout pulling in Trump's favor, And I would say the same thing. Now, Trump is still ahead in Arizona in some poles, the poll u site has Harris ahead by about four or so percentage points, so not quite outside the margin of error. So, you know, we started off with a really tight race in Arizona, and what we have today is a really tight race in Arizona.
Well that's fair, and I wonder about the demographics who ultimately will decide that race one way or another. While I was in Chicago last week tomorrow, we spoke with the head of the Hispanic Federation, others who look specifically at the Latino vote as well, who have suggested that they have seen a serious increase in enthusiasm or at least interest in this race since Harris became the nominee instead of Joe Biden. Is it the Latino vote that will matter most in Arizona or is it another group we should be watching more carefully?
The Latino votes should not be you know, it cannot be overstated. In Arizona, we have a large and growing proportion of our electorate who are Latino. We have a lot of young voters voting for the first time, So Latino voters matter, youth vote matters. The urbanization of Arizona, where we have voters moving from rural areas into urban areas and voting for the first time. We of course have a lot of domestic migration into Arizona. So there's a lot of important groups out here in Arizona, and any one of them could make the difference because our electoral outcomes here are so razor thin. In Arizona do typically support Democrats at higher rates about two.
To one, But there's a lot of political diversity.
I always say Latuto's are not a monolithic voting block by any stretch of the imagination, and both parties should and can make a concerted appeal for their support.
Well certainly, and as you talk about first time voters within that group, the Harris campaign is also pointing to first time donors that have made contributions to their campaign. In just the five weeks since it launched, since Joe Biden drop it out of the race, they say they've raised five hundred and forty million dollars in total between the campaign and affiliated super packs. They say one third of that are first time donors. Two thirds of the total Samara are women, And I wonder if we consider demographic groups here, how you are watching women in particular in Arizona and frankly elsewhere.
Harris is the beneficiary of a widening gender gap in Arizona and across the country, where women are supporting Harris at much higher rates than they appeared to have been supporting Joe Biden. And that is especially true among the youngest generations and eighteen to twenty nine year olds voting for the first time, donating for the first time. Those women are showing really unprecedented levels of support for a Democratic nominee at this point in the race. So I think, you know, a lot of that, you know, attracts with what we're seeing in the polls, with young women coming out and supporting Harris at vastly higher levels than they had been supporting Joe Biden.
Well, and of course women's rights, reproductive rights specifically was a big focus of conversation on the stage and elsewhere in Chicago last week. At the DNC Kamala Harris specifically talked about reproductive rights. At one point in her acceptance speech, talked about what Republicans and Donald Trump want to do on abortion and called them simply out of their mind.
So that was a direct quote Samara.
But it does seem that the Republican ticket is trying to reshape at least its stance on abortion or message it differently, including the vice presidential nominee sennittor jd Vance, who sat down for an interview on Meet the Press this weekend, was asked whether or not Donald Trump would sign a federal abortion ban into law.
This was his answer.
Absolutely commit that, Kristen Donald Trump has been as clear about that as possible. I think it's important to step back and say, what is Donald Trump actually said on the abortion question, and how is it different from what Kamala Harrison the Democrats have said. Donald Trump wants to end this cultural war over this particular topic. If excuse me, California wants to have a different abortion policy from Ohio, then Ohio has to respect California and California has to respect Ohio. Donald Trump's view is that we want the individual states and their individual cultures and their unique political sensibilities to make these decisions.
And I should be clear what he said he could commit to. Was Donald Trump not signing a federal abortion ban, Samara, despite the fact that when Trump was president back in twenty eighteen, he was pushing the Senate to pass a twenty week ban on abortion, get it to his desk so that he could sign it. Are American voters going to buy that he thinks differently now in a post row world.
Well, this has been a really big pivot for a lot of Republican candidates. We're seeing is Americans generally do not favorable or bands, and support for reproductive rights.
Has been really high, even in red states.
So Republican candidates from Donald Trump down to here in Arizona, Carrie Lake once Isca money, they've all been trying to figure out how they can amend their views, change their views, whoever you want to think about it, to better suit the American people. Seems where Republicans have landed is on sort of leaving it to the people to decide, trying to step away from it altogether. And here in Arizona, we do have abortion on the ballot in November, and it's going to be a huge motivator for a lot of pro choice voters who say that abortion is more important to them than what we typically see pro life voter seeing, so to restate that pro choice voters say abortion is more important than pro life voters do. So it's more of a mobilizing, mobilizing issue that could help Kamala Harris in Arizona and in other states across the country.
Well, yeah, I'm glad you raised that point tomorrow, because, of course, since Rowe was overturned, since the Dobs decision, we have seen abortion literally on the ballot in a number of states, and voters overwhelmingly in each of those instances have voted to protect abortion rights and have done so in frankly high numbers. So, as you were alluding to before the fact that things are always really really close in Arizona, these are always very tight races, is the fact that abortion is also going to be on that ballot in addition to the senatorial candidates to the presidential candidates. Could that potentially be the thing that makes or breaks who wins.
Absolutely.
I mean, we have abortion on the ballot that's going to be very mobilizing and will probably help not only Kamala Harris but down ballot democrats as well. We also have an immigration measure on the ballot which provides the Arizona, Arizona State of Arizona with more power to enforce immigration here at the state level, that could potentially help Republican candidates.
And so we are seeing this sort of tension between.
A ballot measure that favors the Democrats and a ballot measure that favors the Republicans. We'll see how these two ballot measures eventually balance out. But I mean anything in a state like this, where things are so close, it's hard for me to say that there's anything that couldn't make a difference.
Well, so I'd like to ask you about something that could make a difference, or really two things in which one of them might matter the most. We have been talking at length here today about the fundraising figures from the Harris campaign five hundred and forty million dollars raised in the five weeks since Shoe Biden dropped out, but also this notion that the campaign says it's not just about the money they've raised, it's about the people they have signed up to volunteer, more than two hundred thousand of them that could potentially be out there knocking on doors, working the ground game. So, Mara, how important will that be in a state like Arizona not just buying time on the airwaves, but also having people show up to talk to Arizonas in person.
Well, you know, over a third of Arizonans identifies independent and tell posters that they are un committed to either party. Now, typically independent do favor one party over the other. But getting these groups mobilized and getting them, you know, registered and ready to vote is you know, it's essential.
And the fact that there is such a.
Big ground campaign going on right now in Arizona is going to be real, really essential. I mean, I am expecting a lot of knocks on my door and a lot of text messages and a lot of phone calls, and I think everybody in Arizona's going to experience that.
I also want to ask you, Samorrow something about something that happened in Arizona last week, which was RFK Junior suspending his presidential campaign and then endorsing Donald Trump and joining him on stage in Arizona. What difference do you think that actually makes there or in any other state for that matter, Were you considering RFK Junior as a consequential factor in the outcome of this race.
Yeah, I mean, I'm.
Gonna wait to see how the polls play out this week. I have a poll going out to Arizona's this week as well. Support for RFK had dipped really low. I mean, it was hundred around.
Five percent by the time he dropped out.
So we're not talking about a lot of voters here, and there is a lot of speculation as to what these voters are going to do. They're not uniformly leaning toward Trump. They do favor Trump over Harris, but just slightly so. So it's hard to know whether this is going to make a difference. But you know, as I just said, anything could, and we're going to see what the numbers say over the next you know, week or two, as these voters decide whether they'll participate at all or who it is that they're going to give their vote to.
Well, and of course before they ultimately decide, they will have potentially chances to hear from both of these candidates. September tenth on ABC, two weeks from tomorrow. Tomorrow is scheduled to be the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris, though Donald Trump is maybe throwing into question whether he wants it to be on ABC, whether or not Mike's will be hot the whole time is an outstanding issue, it seems, between these two campaigns. But how consequential will that moment be to voters in these swing states including Arizona, of course, but elsewhere in deciding who they're going to cast a ballot for. Can either candidate afford to give up that opportunity?
I mean, listen, I was always one of the many political scientists would say, you know, debates don't all matter all that much, but look what happened after that Biden Trump debates, So debates debates matter, it turns out, and you know, I Kamala Harris has a bit of a lead right now in terms of momentum and just the trends in her favor. So the debate's gonna matter, especially for Trump. He's gonna kind of have to stop her inner tracks a little bit, try to reverse that momentum. And so I think, you know, I think it will be consequential when it comes to determining, you know, what the trend's going forward. Harris has been on a upward trajectory ever since she announced her candidacy. The debate would be a good opportunity for Trump to to sort of stop those trends and regain that momentum.
All right tomorrow.
Always great to have you here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thank you so much for joining me. Samoraw Klara of course of the University of Arizona. We appreciate your time as we focus on the southwest part of the United States. But we also have a message today for those in the Northeast and New England. Specifically, we have some news for our Bloomberg Radio audience. Starting on September third, you can listen to Bloomberg Radio in and around Boston on our new signal ninety nine FM. It's your new source for business news from the financial center of New England. Again, Bloomberg Radio is moving to ninety nine at noon the day after Labor Day.
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