Harris and Biden Hold Joint Event in Maryland

Published Aug 15, 2024, 8:37 PM

Watch Joe and Kailey LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition, Joe and Kailey speak with:

  • Bully Pulpit International Managing Director Adam Hodge ahead of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris' joint appearance in Maryland Thursday.
  • Bloomberg Politics Contributor Rick Davis and Four Corners Public Affairs Partner Caitlin Legacki about the debates agreed to by the Trump campaign and the Harris campaign.
  • Bloomberg Politics Editor Laura Davison about the events being held by Harris and Donald Trump Thursday.
  • Former Director for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council Hagar Chemali about cease-fire negotiations underway in Doha.
  • Third Way Executive Vice President Matt Bennett about Harris' goals on the campaign trail this week.

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You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay, and then Roudo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

As we consider what we're going to hear a little bit later on today from Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. They're coming together in Prince George's County, Maryland, which is just outside just across the Potomac from Washington, d C. And we're going to see this Bidenomics turning into Kamala namics before our eyes.

Here.

Important to the White House announcing this morning that Medicare is expected to save six billion dollars from the first round of price negotiations. You're gonna hear Joe Biden talk about this. It involves ten widely used drugs, seniors, they say, saving one and a half billion dollars out of pocket. This is on brand if you're talking about lowering prices. That's the point of this today, the progress that's been made so far. Tomorrow, Kamala Harris in North Carolina is going to roll out her whole economic package here and presumably give us a sense of where we go from here. And will there be differences in the Joe Biden versus Kamala Harris approach. We don't know, and that's why we're going to be listening, But we do want to stop down for an important moment in political history. If you listen to or watch this program, this is obviously important to you, and it certainly is to Adam Hodge. We wanted to bring in Adam based on his experience as an advisor to Joe Biden, a member of this administration before he became managing director at Bully Pulpit International spokesman by the way, for the National Security Council. That was his area of expertise in the White House. And Adam, it's great to see you today. You've been talking to us through this whole process of Joe Biden coming to grips with what's happening, his decision to drop out, and now today it's been a while now, it's been a couple of weeks. Today he'll be actually on a stage with Kamala Harris. What's this going to feel like?

I think it'll feel like a really great opportunity for him to pass the baton physically right and all leading into what should be a very raucous and warm welcome for him at the convention in Chicago next week. There's an opportunity for him to really help her in some of the areas where he was particularly strong at the campaign trail. I mean, I think he went to Scranton more times as president than just about any president in history, right, So I think you'll continue to see him almost like be the permission structure for some of the voters who were following and who believed and who loved Joe Biden in some of those middle class areas of the country, to him passing the torch and say you can trust Kamala Harris to fight for you, just like you trusted me. That is I think going to be the overarching theme of his effort on her behalf over the next few weeks of the campaign.

Interesting, how difficult is it's going to be for him. At the same time, he's addressed the American people from the Oval Office, He's done a couple of interviews, But to stand up there and remember what that was like, to soak this up. It's gonna be one of the last political rallies he's ever involved in.

Well, I mean, we've got eighty five whatever days until election day. He's got plenty more rallies to go. I think the convention will be again one of those moments where he will feel the love from the party. I think it's an important moment for him, though, and for her to talk about their success that they've had trying to fight inflation and lowering costs, right, I mean, and their real economic record that they can both own together.

Well, you know, and I ask you that knowing that he may well make appearances on the trail, but it's not gonna be about him anymore.

No, But that's he again. He said when he was running he was a transformational candidate. He was going to pass the baton. It may have not happened exactly in the timeline that he envisioned. I think clearly there's been reporting that he thinks he still could win, but I think it's an opportunity for him to also help hand over the economic record. So sixteen million jobs we saw this week, three hundred thousand clean energy jobs, and you've seen actually what I found fascinating her a favorability on the economy has actually ticked up. Of the last few weeks. She's pulled even or close to even with Trump and a lot of the economic who they trust on the economy. That's real momentum that I think captures some of this passing of the torch. Now it's on her to take it and take the baton and run through.

I saw the pole which I think you're referring to, which I know is very good news for the campaign. It argues with some other polls that would suggest this is still Donald Trump's issue to lose. He had an opportunity to talk about it yesterday, didn't say a lot about his economic plan where he got the Hannibal lecter and all the rest of this stuff. What kind of an opportunity does that present for Kamala Harris? And I ask you that, knowing there's reporting today she's going to call on Congress, according to Politico, to pass a federal ban on price gouging tomorrow, how specific does she need to be about her plans to draw a contrast to Donald Trump.

I mean to go back to your point, Yesterday could not have been a more stark contrast for Trump. You've got CPI coming down below three percent for the first time in almost three years, and then he's talking about raising tariffs to twenty percent, which would but the Peterson Institute, non Partisan said would raise costs about seventeen hundred bucks for hardworking families. Pivot to tomorrow. She's got an opportunity to lay out of contrast. She is coming out with an idea, a proposal that she thinks will lower costs in the grocery store. Trump, you didn't say.

He talked a lot.

About grocery prices yesterday, but there wasn't really any detail about what he'd do about it. Sure, the price gouging plan is certainly an opportunity to pick up on some of the key messages they've talked about about lowering prices, whether it's Inflation Reduction Act and lowering costs for insulin, prescription drug out of pocket costs, those are all pieces of their agenda, and it is I think also speaks to a more empowered FTC and a terrorist administration. There's been a lot of questions about what that sy Well I mean. I think one of the things they signal was that the FTC would take a look at some of the mergers in this in the grocery space, you already saw the Biden administration industry specific to that industry after.

We went through the Kroger affairs.

Well, the rest right and that FTC suit is still still ongoing, right, So I think that is something that investors and companies should be paying attention to. She's signaling her intention as this is one area where people actually feel it, and I think that is where it makes part like good politics makes good policy for her in the campaign, they feel like this is a chance for them to drive an affirmative agenda and look at a forward looking agenda as opposed to Trump, who wants to take us back.

Your specialty is national security. You were a national security advisor, of course in the White House, and this president has been associated with foreign policy for many years in his career. Kamala Harris doesn't have the experience that Joe Biden had coming into the White House, but there are a lot of questions about what difference there might be in their approach to foreign policy. I wonder what you think about that. Knowing that they're going to be a couple of dozen of uncommitted delegates in Chicago, rarely have thirty people made so much noise who are still upset about Israel policy. These are pro Palestinian protesters. What should they know about Kamala Harris, if anything, that's different than Joe Biden.

The important thing to remember she actually comes into office with one of the strongest foreign policy records of experience than any other president since Joe Biden, I mean just at being the vice president. She traveled the world, spoke to world leaders ahead of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. She's talked pretty passionately about the plight of the people of Gaza in this crisis, and she's spoken, I think very effectively also about the need for a ceasefire and also Israel's right to defend itself and the real need to bring the hostages home. She's an effective communicator on these issues. I think you're going to see and what you were all looking and watching with bated breath about what may happen in the Middle East this week.

Does she think.

Differently about this than he does or is it a continuation of what we've seen for the last three years. Donald Trump made the point yesterday that her desk is ten steps away from the Oval office, that cuts both ways, depending on what you're talking about.

Well, but she's been in this situation for some of the president's toughest calls. She was there on April thirteenth when Iran launched hundreds of initials into the situation room and helping give the president advice and council. So I think you will see a lot of continuity in their approach, and some of the officials who were part of the National Security team will I think likely to stick around, who are part of her team will stick around, and if she becomes president, I think the important she talks about alliances. She talks about rebuilding America's image on the world stage. That's something that Joe Biden invested a ton of time ago, right, that is part of his agenda, but it's also the right thing to do. It is in a way for us to be more effective things like bringing hostages home from abroad. That only happens if you have the relationships with world leaders. The good news for her, she can talk about how she's cultivated some of those relationships while she's been been Vice president. That's her objective, I think in laying out that vision over the next ninety odd days.

And they took a picture for me. If we start in Chicago on Monday against the backdrop of an Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel, how does that change the optics the conversation and her challenge when she speaks.

I mean, it will obviously inject an issue into the campaign that war in the Middle East is not anything anybody wants to have have happened, because it really means people's lives are being lost. I mean, like that's a real human cost to that conflict. I think for her it is an opportunity for her to reassert her credentials as a leader for the presidency, and that is something that she has to try to convince the American people. And I have the experience, I have the judgment, which is key to make the right decisions to be your commander in chief. That is something that I think she has done a good job of so far. That's another opportunity for her. I think it more of it as an opportunity to show her leadership credentials.

Just have a minute left. To what extent will she go to draw contrast with Joe Biden tomorrow when she speaks to the economy.

Oh, I don't think you'll see a whole lot of contrast. I think it'll be about laying out where she wants to build on his record again, like sixteen million jobs three three hundred thousand jobs in the clean energy sector alone. Those are real building blocks to go further. She's talked about the care economy, people, paid family leave. Those are all really popular policies that she wants to build on. It's not about sort of separate and putting Joe Biden's policies to the side. It's taking the progress and building on it.

We'll be watching for that baton today with Adam hodgen Might. He's managing director of Bully Pulpit, a veteran of the Biden White House. Thanks for being with us. As always, Adam, it's great to talk to you.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Ronoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Thanks for joining us here on the Thursday edition of Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio on the satellite and on YouTube. Join us now search Bloomberg Business News Live. You'll see our live stream there with all of our shows throughout the day from New York to Washington, d C. Where, of course we're laser focused on the economy with more data. Today we talked about that with Anna Wong and on the campaign trail, the Big hand off. Today Joe Biden Kamala Harris on stage for the time since Joe Biden decided to drop out of the race. It's been a couple of weeks now. This will be an interesting set of optics before she delivers her economic address tomorrow. I will also note that there's going to be a news conference later today. Donald Trump reportedly in a news conference. You know, sometimes there are questions, sometimes they're not. But we're going to keep tabs on this, of course, for you to see if there's any news after he spoke about his economic ideas tomorrow, along with a lot of other things. And so it is the race to define Kamala Harris on both sides. Everyone knows what Donald Trump's all about, right. Interesting to note as we listened to him yesterday in his speech on the economy and many other things, he actually pronounced her name right. He said Kamala, not Kamala, not caama Bla, not any of the other things that we tend to hear from Donald Trump. And I don't know if that's worth noting as he maybe starts to take his either opponent more seriously or the advice of his advisors more seriously. Let's get with the panel now. Rick Davis is back with us today. I'm glad to report Bloomberg Politics contributor, partner at Stone Court Capital, joined by kitln Lagacky, partner at Four Corners Public Affairs, democratic strategist. Great to see you both with us. What do you make of that, Rick? Does it matter if Donald Trump starts to pronounce her name correctly? Is he actually acknowledging that he has a real opponent?

You know, I don't think we should read too much into it. It maybe that he just made a mistake and forgot to try to savage her name pretty much keeping. I mean, you know, I'm waiting for the nickname. I mean, right now, she's been nicknameless. I mean one thing to disparage your name, but it's another thing not you know, to be an opponent to Donald Trump and not get a nickname is insulting.

Uh so, uh.

Yeah, and it could be some of the complaints that the GOP leaders are giving him about, you know, how he's a approaching the contrast with Harris is starting to sink in.

I mean, even just scheduling this press conference today, it'll be interesting to see how much he sticks to the script or whether he does as usual, which is an hour of you know, misrepresentations, lives and and things like that. So I get the feeling that there's a gang tackle going on within the GOP trying to get him on a substantive message that we'll have a result in, trying to you know, sort of hold back the Harris surge that's going on right now. But maybe we're just reading too much into you know, a one off. But it's definitely different than it's you know lately.

Well, you know, as soon as I go there, Rick, you look at some of the other things that were said. The Washington Post put the executive summary together pretty well, Caitlin, because we were all over the place. In this speech, he made fun of President Biden for being pressured to exit the race, criticize the administration's immigration policy, attacked on documented immigrants as criminals, personal attacks at Harris, and then claimed Harris had been chosen after Democrats quote decided to get politically correct, unquote what does he mean by that?

Look, I'm not even gonna indulge that conversation because it's so ridiculous. I do think he has a crush on Harris. He did say, after he pronounced her name correctly, that her Time magazine cover looks like the.

Most beautiful actress you've ever seen.

So maybe things are much simpler than that, but yeah, it's I think the challenge for Republicans is that this kind of campaign is really unprecedented in modern American politics, and he has clearly thrown off his.

Game by it.

But you know, the reality is that he was supposed to give an economic speech yesterday. It turned into a lot of the same old stuff. He didn't even talk about his economic policies, which many business leaders have set are disastrous. And then you know, he had his opportunity at the convention to really set a new tone, and again he rambled for ninety minutes. I think the reality of the situation is that Trump is an eighty year old man.

He's been like this entire life.

He's not going to be able to change his tune, and I think a lot of Republicans are finally coming to reckon with that when it has started to play against them.

Looks like we've got breaking news on debates here, which is interesting. We know that there had just been an October one vice presidential debate that had been agreed to. But this, I'm just learning this with you here. This is straight from the campaign, so let's find out together.

It reads.

This is from Michael Tyler, comm's director for the campaign. The debate about debates is over all right. Donald Trump's campaign accepted our proposal for three debates, todential and a vice presidential debate. Assuming Trump actually shows up Stember tenth to debate Kamala Harris, then Governor Wallace will see jd vance October one. The American people will have another opportunity, it says, to see the vice president and Donald Trump on the stage together in October. So, Rick, it looks like two and one. It's just like the commissions back in business.

Here, isn't it.

Yeah?

I mean this is really pretty traditional format for the modern presidential debate cycle. The difference is the commission isn't involved, and they're going to have to I think I'm not sure in that October presidential debate they've picked a host, but you've got breaking news, so it may include that in there. But I actually think it's refreshing that campaigns actually talked to one another and make these arrangements. They don't need a big infrastructure between them, they don't need a lot of haggling over rules and that kind of thing. So and I also hope that this is like the first presidential debate. I mean, technically, we'll have had three presidential debates this year, which is kind of entertaining. And yet you know, like I like the fact that, you know, they hold these studio debates and there's not a crowd to be distracting, and you can focus in on the candidates themselves. So Prussian fingers. Maybe the format will stick. And I think, you know, we have a chance to see something really interesting, which was I don't think anything anybody would have ever anticipated that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump take the stage together and go at it for ninety minutes.

It's interesting. Caitlin weigh in on the idea of another you know, three debates here, But I find it interesting the language used in the statement. By the way, no host is referred to in this announcement, Rick, we don't have a network tied to this one in October yet it says in October, with no other details. But the way this is written, it says Caitlin quote. Assuming Donald Trump actually shows up September tenth to debate Vice President Harris, then the others will take place? Do they not think he's going to be there?

He's a very unpredictable man.

I think that what it does show is there is a lot of confidence within the Harris operation right now. I think they're trying to get under Trump's skin by baiting him into either lashing out or becoming a little bit.

More unpredictable.

He's a very prideful man, and so when they challenge his confidence, they challenge his ability to compete on these stages. It's a very clear attempt to bait him into doing and saying things that are not in his electoral benefit, and it works to some degree.

So I think that's really what it's about. It's twofold.

It's about the confidence, and then it's about trying to bait him into doing or saying something that reminds voters why his approval ratings are so high in the first place, and why they voted him out of office in twenty twenty.

Rick, there seems to be a conventional wisdom that debates advantage Kamala Harris. Should people feel that way?

Do you agree?

I don't know. I mean's she's the debates we've seen her in, which are not at this high profile level. She's imported herself well. But I wouldn't underestimate Donald Trump's avili to get under her skin. I think they are both very good at being incredibly sarcastic toward one another, and I think a little sarcasm in the campaign is highly enjoyable. I mean, I think that these things sometimes get too too hot and too serious, and the fact that they can be playful, and I think, you know, Harris has sort of introduced that element to this campaign. Her boss, Joe Biden, was not playful and sarcastic, and so I think he gave away that weapon to use against Donald Trump. But I think you'd have to say that the stakes are incredibly high for this presidential debate coming up in September, and I don't think you can handicap it in any of the way. Like Donald Trump's been on this stage doing presidential debates for a long time and it does not make him nervous. I mean, it makes him crazy sometimes, but it doesn't make him nervous. I would be surprised if Kamala Harris takes the stage for the first time as a presidential candidate debate and isn't you know, got a pretty high level of nervousness.

Yeah, You've been actually really good describing that, Rick, Because so few people will ever be in the room with a presidential candidate before they walk out on stage like that. This is something that no human being can really prepare their nerves for, is it.

No, this is this is very stressful. There's an enormous amount of prep at least I'm sure Harris will Will will have a team that will get or prepared for this debate. And in doing so, you create expectations, and these candidates they want to meet those expectations. They want to perform, and like like any kind of athletic endeavor, you're going to have butterflies when you go out on that stage for the first time. And so the question is how quickly can she overcome that hesitancy that's just normal, and get into her paces and remember her attack lines and be able to perform at a level that frankly, you know, regardless of how you feel about the last debate, Biden and Trump had a lot of practice before they got out there this year.

Hey, Caitlin, we all saw you on the Colbert rapport this week. Yeah, pretty remarkable.

This is great.

I bet your parents were thrilled. It was from right in this studio when Kaitlyn was with us. The Big Walls, Kamala Harris roll out and you were professing your love. And I mean that politically of course, for this choice of a running mate, and they were kind of doing a gag on that. But let me ask you what that in mine in our last couple of minutes to debates, favor Tim Walls because he's going to be face to face. It looks like at with jd Vance, I think so.

I mean, he apparently, in his betting with Vice President Harris told her he's not good at debates. I haven't gone back and watched his tapes from when he ran for governor, but I think the core advantage that he's going to have is that he presents as a super normal guy who you know, he spent twenty years dealing with teenagers in classrooms. As governor, he's had to actually like focus on governing and getting things done, and he has a great economic record to tell. I think, you know, obviously a lot of the attacks on JD. Vanc Or is that he's just kind of a weird guy. He has, you know, bopped around from Yale to Silicon Valley, hasn't spent a lot of time since his childhood.

Dealing with normal people in normal circumstances.

So I think that, you know, not speaking to his ability to execute a case of about policy chops, he's definitely going to be able to paint a contrast about what his vision for living in America is, his vision of freedom and keeping the government out of your bedroom, keeping the government out of your doctor's office, but also building an economy where families can succeed. And so I think that, you know, when you look at that debate, I think there's a level of security about himself that Tim Wallas has that Jdvance may be lacking that I think will play in Walls's favor.

Fascinating stuff. Great panel today, Rick Davis, Caitland, Lagacky, thank you so much.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast catches live weekdays at noon Eastern on APO car Play and then broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

It's a busy day in politics as well, and that's why you're here listening and watching of Power. I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew. It's going to be an incredibly packed afternoon for the presidential candidates and for current incumbent presidents. Is this hour we are awaiting remarks jointly from President Biden and Kamala Harris about their administration's effort to lower costs for the American people. And then later on this afternoon, we will be hearing from the Republican nominee, Donald Trump will be holding yet another news conference for the second week in a row, this one not from mar A Lago, but from Bedminster, New Jersey. And then of course the weekends Friday with an economic address from Kamala Harris in North Carolina.

Yeah, we've got a lot to do before we even get to Chicago. That last news conference from Donald Trump did involve questions from reporters, which is the point of a news conference. It also went on for a very long time and seemed to lose direction, kind of like his economic address did yesterday as we got into Hannibal Lecter and all of the other things. We do know, however, that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be talking about their efforts to lower prices together a lot of since Kayley about whether she can find some sunlight between herself and the president tomorrow, and that's a real balancing act, knowing that this has been a major political problem for.

Him, especially when she will be with him in Maryland today, having to seem still supportive of the man who technically is her boss. She serves at the pleasure of this president, but she will also perhaps try to differentiate herself from him one day later.

That's the idea covering the pivot for us. Helping our coverage, of course, is Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics Editor, with us here at the table today in Washington. Laura, this is quite a high wire act, we could say, for Kamala Harris. She appears with Joe Biden today within hours essentially tomorrow in North Carolina. She's trying to slice the two apart a little bit when it comes to the economy.

Right, and what she needs to do, and this remains to be seen if she can do it, is you know, take all the good stuff from Biden, from his legacy of you know, the prescription drugs, which is what they're going to be talking about today. That's been a very popular piece of his legist the work he's done on infrastructure investments and chips, you know, tie herself to those things, but be able to separate herself from his record on inflation and some of the other things that have been a lot less popular. And you know, just looking at the polling, voters give Biden very low marks for economic issues, and even compared to Trump, Harris is not polling as well on the economy.

Well.

And when we heard Trump giving what was dubbed to be an economic address in Asheville, North Carolina, yesterday, he did go after the Biden Harris administration on inflation, talking about how high prices for various goods have gone during the three and a half years of it. What he didn't do, other than kind of saying Bill drill, baby drill, and we're going to deregulate. Was give an explicit policy proposal to get prices down? Are we actually going to get that from Harris tomorrow?

It's possible we'll get a little bit of detail, but I'm sure nowhere near the level of detail that Bloomberg readers and listeners would want on this. I've already been getting lots of questions from folks, and you know, I was setting expectations that this is going to be, you know, campaigning in pros or campaigning in poetry rather than you know, the detailed policy list that people want. It is noteworthy, however, that she started to dot out some of these policy proposals. We saw last night, a proposal on food and grocery price gouging. She's already talked about no taxes on tips, another proposal that sounds familiar for those who've been listening to Trump speeches. So we're starting to see little details, but it behooves her to be specific on narrow issues that are popular versus giving you know, a big, three hundred page economic policy report where there's lots of stuff that people could find to criticize.

Well, she'll have for a chance I guess in some upcoming debates. One of the things I think you were working on before you joined us was this breaking news in the last hour. At least according to the Harris campaign, there will be two presidential debates, not just September tenth, but one in October, and we now know there'll be a vice presidential debate on October first. How important will these be in determining the outcome of this election.

Well, if we've learned anything from twenty twenty four, it is that debates can definitely to register. Yes, So you know, this is really important because one of these, the September tenth debate, that first one will be before most voters start voting, but that October one, depending when that is, that's going to be right in the thick of when people are early voting. And this could have, potentially, depending how this goes sway, voters, different issues could come up. They could be challenged on, you know, if there is say a flare up on foreign policy or something. This is a chance for voters to get a sense on some of the issues that candidates may want to shy away from.

On the campaign trail.

Well, and it will be certainly a guarantee that Kamala Harris will be answering questions at least from the moderators, which we haven't really seen her do much of. This is a point that the Trump campaign has been making frequently, and perhaps that's also why we're going to see Donald Trump theoretically asking some questions at another press conference, the second in as many weeks. Laura's He's just going to keep this up until Harris starts doing her own or do we know what the strategy is here?

Well, part of the strategy is, you know that Trump this is a line he wants to use in the attack, is that Harris is not speaking directly to the media. That's you know that she's sort of avoiding them and just going on these scripted appearances. But also this is self serving in a way that this helps him pull the spotlight back on himself without having to do, you know, some of the harder, more in the weeds work of campaigning. He has been very frustrated by the media attention that Harris has gotten over recent weeks. So if you can you call a press conference at your golf club, why not have press come and spend an hour talking with them and you know, at least get some of your talking points out there. It's unclear how much these are actually helping him. You know, he arguably you know, going off script on some of these things, his comments of the NABJ you know, we're not helpful for his campaign.

All right, So we'll see how this goes this afternoon. Lara Davison, Bloomberg Politics Editor, thank you so much. And before we get to Bedminster, New Jersey, in that press conference, of course, first we will see Joe Biden and Harris together, as we've mentioned in Maryland. And what's interesting is this is kind of part campaign for Harris, but also part define the legacy for Joe Biden. He tries to protect how he will be viewed in history as the forty six president of the United Sts, and we know that something else. He wants to have his legacy marked by Joe and he said as much in his Oval Office address after he left the race. His peace in the Middle East and a ceasefire deal between Israel and Gaza. Those efforts are underway today.

Well, that's true. This is a time to get to the table here. We've been looking forward to this for some time. Kayley and cutter, and it's happening at once as Israel waits for this potential retaliatory strike by Iran. There's some news as well on the war against Hamas here, as American officials reportedly tell Israel now that they can make no further progress in the battle against Hamas without further jeopardizing civilian life. We still have hostages involved here in so many questions that we are pursuing at this very delicate moment. Kaylei, we don't even know if Hamas is at the table here.

Correct, Yeah, they aren't at the table in dohats negotiators, those mediators will be bringing the message back to Jaha Sinwar and the other leadership. So it's on this note we turn now to Hagar Shamali. She of course is formerly of the National Security Council. Now she's founder and CEO of Greenwich Media Strategies. Welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Hagar, if we could first just begin with the talks that are happening in Doha, given Hamas is not there at the table and they're still rehashing trying to reach a deal based on an outline that was announced by President Biden back in May. That was months ago, and the parties didn't agree to it. Then do you really believe that they'll be agreeing to it now?

Well, there's a lot of hope. I mean, that's the White House has expressed a lot of hope. They feel that they're coming close to an end.

Now.

I know I've said that.

A few times over the last two months, but it is normal in these types of negotiations for them to be very touch and go. The thing that you've had now is just to explain, is that so they've agreed on this outline, this general outline that Present Biden put forward at the end of May, as you noted, and that outline they remain in agreement in agreement on. But the way it works from there is that they have to agree on every single little detail, and those.

Details are what what are?

Not only are they getting hung up on those details, but as time wears on, each side comes with new demands.

So time is not really on their side on this one.

Except this time there is a lingering aspect in the background, and that's this this potential assault attack that that that that we're all waiting for coming from Iran and Hazbella, and a deal on this ceasefire could actually thwart that attack and put it entirely to the side, which would be you know, really I mean huge and and really kind of win win all around. But that said, the details of such and I can go into a few of them. For example, they're they're arguing on the phases of hostages who should be released and and you know, first would be women and and and remaining children and then and then men and soldiers and and so they're arguing over those phases that is Israel doesn't like the phases that Hamas is putting forward on that Israel wants to have a military presence along the border between Gaza and Egypt, and Hamas is now against that. So there are things like that Israel wants to set up checkpoints inside Gaza to check on people to weed out militants.

Hamas doesn't like that.

So there are these details that things of this kind that aren't in that broader outline that they're trying to figure out now. And by the way, that's the similar process, whether it's a ceasefire or a peace negotiation, and so it's very common. But unfortunately you're talking about two sides who have deep, deep, deep distrust on both ends. And Israel's goal at the end of the day is not the same as the merrick As the United States's goal. Their goal ultimately is to defeat Hamas completely, and I think that they feel that that's not there yet, and Hamas knows that. So they're afraid that even after a ceasefire, is Oh would resume some kind of violence.

And so that's also in the background here.

Regard there's a belief that the release of the hostages. Still more than one hundred living and dead hostages held in Gaza cannot be secured militarily.

Do you believe that, oh, I do believe that.

I mean after October seven, when when so many hostages were taken in, knowing how brutal Hamas is and the conditions in Gaza, and I knew that the response from Israel was going to be severe and that the conditions would then worsen in Gaza. I always thought that that their lives were really pretty much the lives of the hostages were hanging by thread. But I think that's especially especially more evident now. And proof of that is the fact that now you have Gaza's entire population, almost the entire population of two point two two point three million people have been displaced and have to have had to continue to move many times, and so you have hostages in the mix of that, you always have water and food issues and medicine issues. And I believe the Israeli government came out saying that it's believed that only half or a third of those of those hostages, is about one hundred and fifteen left, are still alive. And so that's why you have increasing pressure inside Israel. You have had protests today knowing that these talks are taking place in Doha. The families of the hostages are protesting saying that they don't want the negotiators to return without a deal, And of course they've said that before, but they really mean it this time because they know that time is of the essence for these hostages. But the US, what they're trying to convey is, hey, Israel, you have defeated Hamas significantly to the point where we don't believe they could actually pose a significant threat to you or govern Gaza, and therefore it's time to get the hostages back. And if you want to focus on continuing to undermine hamas it has to be with these very specific targeted operations that kill leaders, as you saw in Iran and in Lebanon.

And that is, by the way, where I think the war is headed anyway.

So that's what the US is trying to convey is you know, listen, you're not going to find any more opportunities to bomb your way out of this, and you're only going to find yourself endangering way too many civilians.

It's time to move on.

It's released the hostages and move to the next phase of this.

Well, as you allude to the assassinations, the strikes against these leaders in Beirut and Tran, we are still waiting the response from Hesbela or Iran or are both on that front? Hagar, What is your expectation. The longer we wait, does it indicate the strike against Israel the retaliation is only going to be more severe? Does it suggest one might not be coming at all?

The longer we wait, the more it implies that they are waiting to see what happens with the ceasefire talks, because Iran has something to gain out of these ceasefire talks as well.

You know, we have to.

Remember that you have now a huge presence US military presence in the region, and even that's been doubled down by the US Defense Department. Right another submarine was sent in, another carrier was sent in. We have US presents all across the region, and Iran and Hasbella, No, they don't. They want to respond that they don't want to enter a war into any kind of engagement with the United States, and they've made that very clear. They want it seems a repeat of April where you had three hundred drones and missiles launched by Iran. All of them were successfully intercepted except one or two, and Israel responded, but then every side retreated, and that's kind of my expectation for the next assault. But now now that we've gone this far, they've waited this long and we have these ceasefire talks, my expectation is they're definitely holding on until they see how those cease fire talks happen. And we'll know more at the end of the weekend, because it's really today and Friday that are the peak of these talks, apparently according to White House at least, and then if those talks fault, then I would expect this assault that we've all.

Been waiting for to actually happen.

But if there's some glimmer of light, then a glimmer of hope, I would expect them to retreat a little bit, because at the end of.

The day, any engagement with the United States, anything that.

Undermines that ran in regime in general at a time where their own people are against the regime, it threatens their power, it threatens their existence altogether, and.

So then they're aware of that. So that's what I expect.

We're not going to see anything until these ceasefire talks are over at least we know what direction they're taking.

Are we only have a minute left. I don't want to have to cut you off here, so just fair warning. I'm wondering what you are hearing about pro Palestinian protesters, if anything, disrupting the DNC next week in Chicago.

I am hearing actually that they are planning on on on disrupting the DNC.

They tried, I believe last night.

The Vice president was at a fundraising event in the city and they tried to.

It became violent. They threw they tried.

To break into the restaurant, they tried to They ended up throwing things at the police and and smoke canisters and getting very violent. And I expect them to try again, and I expect the Vice President to put them in their place once again. This is not anybody. I do a lot of work in human rights, a lot of work with activists on teaching them how to protest effectively, and.

That is not the way.

Well, let's stay in touch on that. This is going to be interesting as we head for Chicago next week. A Garshamali always a pleasure to spend time Greenwich Media Strategies, former National Security Council on Syria, and Levin on with us.

Here you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Ballast and Power here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. As we count down to the first appearance Joe Biden Kamala Harris together on the same stage. Since the President of the United States dropped out of the race, they're together today at Prince George's County Community College. This is in Maryland, just outside of the nation's capital. If you're with us on Bloomberg TV or YouTube, you see the stage that has been set lowering prescription drug costs, the language on the signage, the backdrops on this stage. They just put the presidential seal in place. Kaylee wes Moore, the Governor of Maryland, helped to get the crowd wound up before these two emerge.

Yeah, of course, it will be fascinating to see the current president and one who was seeking to be president after him joining the state age together as this may be in part legacy defining for Joe Biden, but also an attempt to campaign for the vice president here. And it's worth noting that after today in Maryland, Harris will be in North Carolina tomorrow giving a speech on economic policy. What she would like to pursue and the question we've been asking is to what extent will she try to distance herself from the policies of President Biden. Biden was asked that question on his way to this auditorium earlier today. He said, she's not going to.

Well, we're going to find out about that, because she does plan to propose legislation that would ban price gouging in the food business, one of the things at least we know she'll be outlining. But still a lot of questions, Kayley, about what that speech might bring in frankly, what we're going to hear today.

So let's get into it now with Matt Bennett from Third Way where he is executive vice president for Public Affairs, as we await the emergence of the Vice president and president on that stage together in Maryland. So, Matt, how hard is this line going to be to walk for Vice President Harris as she, on the one hand, tries to applaud the efforts of this administration that she's been a part of, but knowing the negatives that it can also come with, that may try to create some degree of separation.

Yeah, it's really tricky, and I think there's a distinction to be drawn between putting distance between herself and Biden on the things that they have done or we're planning to do, and proposals that she would like to enact going forward. Those are different things. I don't think you're going to see too much distance putting I think that she will inevitably need to run on the record that they created together, some of which is difficult for her because of the inflation, but some of which is very, very positive. They did a lot of really important and big economic things. Inflations coming down, jobs are booming, manufacturing's coming back, the stock market's booming. So there's a lot of good things for her to run on. But she's got a articulate a vision for the future as well.

We're going to be hearing, of course, from the administration as a whole here the Biden Harris campaign. In the next couple of moments, Matt, they're going to talk about medicare expected to save six billion dollars. You can see if you're with us on YouTube or Bloomberg TV. The signage in the room focused on this the first round of price negotiations on ten widely used drugs. This is a pretty bipartisan message. Who's the audience. Is this aimed at senior voters or is it about.

More than that.

It's definitely aimed at seniors and the people who love them. Prescription drugs are a huge part of the budget, the household budget for many seniors, and this is a big deal. It's billions of dollars, not only in savings for the federal government, but also in savings for people. And it's long time coming. As you say, it was a bipartisan effort in Congress to allow Medicare to begin to bargain with pharmaceutical companies which they were barred from doing for a really long time that kept prices artificially high. So I think this is very important for them politically.

And subsequently, Matt, as we await these remarks, we've gotten some new polling data today. This is from Pew Research that does show that Harris is leading, although it's very close. We're basically talking a tie here, forty six Harris, forty five Trump with registered voters nationally, another seven percent for Robert F. Kennedy Junior. But the demographic information was really interesting. Seventy seven percent of Black voters said they support orler leaning toward Harris, compared to sixty four percent who said the same about Biden in the last survey. Hispanic voters also favor Harris over Trump by a seventeen point margin. Especially when we consider the difference in the way these demographics are viewing Harris compared to Biden. Is that really truly at the end of the day. In economic story as.

Well, I think it is both economic but also broader. You know, people pick their presidents differently than they pick other elected officials and mayors and senators. They don't look at a list of achievements. They don't look at a list of policy proposals and match them up, well, I like this person on abortion and this person on the economy. They make it in a much more holistic way, because presidents live in people's lives in ways that other politicians do not, and so I think they a lot of this is simply that they like the energy that they get from Harris and Walls, not just the youthfulness, but the kind of positivity. And I think they were not loving what they were seeing from the president in that regard, and so I think that's a big part of the difference. I don't think that a major policy shift is what is pushing these poll numbers so dramatically in her direction.

We're seeing images now of Judith Judy Aiken, a retired nurse who's going to be introducing Kamala Harris will speak before President Biden. Based on what we understand here in the run of show. Oh, Matt, this is quite a moment for Joe Biden as we wait for them to take the stage. Here, what's going through his mind because as of this moment, now it's not about him anymore.

Yeah, I mean, this is kind of the last val moment, where it is the person who speaks last is most important in politics, and today it'll be him, but next week it'll be her. You know, he's speaking Monday and she's speaking Thursday as the nominee of our party, and that's a big deal. And I can only imagine how difficult this is for him, given the way that this all came about. However, I think what we will hear on Monday, especially, is a real summation and valedictory set of remarks from him about the things that he and she were able to achieve in just four years, with very narrow margins in Congress and against some very tall odds. I mean, they took over with the pandemic still raging, with people dying, with the unemployment.

Great.

Hi, So that's right, A good yot.

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