Pushkin.

Pushkin.

Hey, the election's over. We tried not to overdose on it too much, but we are genuinely curious what you want to hear from us on Do you want more politics? Do you want more sports? You want more poker, you want more AI? Do you like the interview segments with guests? Do you like when Marie and I disagree? Or do you like more agreement? Or what is working for you and what isn't. We would like you to send us an email with feedback to Risky Business all one word at pushkin dot fm. That's risky Business at Pushkin dot fm.

Hey, the election's over. We tried not to overdose on it too much, but we are genuinely curious what you want to hear from us on Do you want more politics? Do you want more sports? You want more poker, you want more AI? Do you like the interview segments with guests? Do you like when Marie and I disagree? Or do you like more agreement? Or what is working for you and what isn't. We would like you to send us an email with feedback to Risky Business all one word at pushkin dot fm. That's risky Business at Pushkin dot fm.

Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova and.

Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova and.

I'm Nate Silver.

I'm Nate Silver.

So today on the show, we are going to revisit a Trump's cabinet picks. I say revisit because last week we talked about the first cabinet picks and they've gotten a little bit more extreme since then. So we're going to go into the game theory of the confirmation process in the Senate, what it means to cooperate and defect, and how we think these confirmations might play out.

So today on the show, we are going to revisit a Trump's cabinet picks. I say revisit because last week we talked about the first cabinet picks and they've gotten a little bit more extreme since then. So we're going to go into the game theory of the confirmation process in the Senate, what it means to cooperate and defect, and how we think these confirmations might play out.

And then let's turn to the NFL where guardian caps are now being compared on the field. These are things that look a little gofy but protect you from concussions much more effectively than a helmet alone. Very few players are wearing means despite their medical benefit. We'll talk about why and what the game theory equilibriums are there.

And then let's turn to the NFL where guardian caps are now being compared on the field. These are things that look a little gofy but protect you from concussions much more effectively than a helmet alone. Very few players are wearing means despite their medical benefit. We'll talk about why and what the game theory equilibriums are there.

So let's get into it and start with your favorite topic, Nate politics. Even though the elections are now behind us, that does not mean we get to abandon the politics. Fe you are not allowed to retire. We are still talking about what's going to happen with this future administration Trump two point zero. You know, last week when we were talking about cabinet picks, one of the first picks was Marco Rubio, and you know, we we talked about that and it seemed like, okay, you know, this isn't that bad. That seems that seems reasonable. Maybe the rest of the cabinet will be quite reasonable as well. And then obviously the day in a few days after we taped, a bunch more nominations were released that were a little bit more eyebrow raising in multiple instances. So let's talk about those nominations, and let's talk about the process for confirming them, how we think that's going to play out, and what the decision game tree looks like for those Senate Republicans who might be in a position to make a difference. Yeah.

So let's get into it and start with your favorite topic, Nate politics. Even though the elections are now behind us, that does not mean we get to abandon the politics. Fe you are not allowed to retire. We are still talking about what's going to happen with this future administration Trump two point zero. You know, last week when we were talking about cabinet picks, one of the first picks was Marco Rubio, and you know, we we talked about that and it seemed like, okay, you know, this isn't that bad. That seems that seems reasonable. Maybe the rest of the cabinet will be quite reasonable as well. And then obviously the day in a few days after we taped, a bunch more nominations were released that were a little bit more eyebrow raising in multiple instances. So let's talk about those nominations, and let's talk about the process for confirming them, how we think that's going to play out, and what the decision game tree looks like for those Senate Republicans who might be in a position to make a difference. Yeah.

Cool, Yeah, Maria, I took a little break with my partner and the cat skills. You a nice time. We maybe took a hike. We are on the edge of maybe hiking too far, too fast without enough water, So.

Cool, Yeah, Maria, I took a little break with my partner and the cat skills. You a nice time. We maybe took a hike. We are on the edge of maybe hiking too far, too fast without enough water, So.

Talking about negative ev decisions, Nate, you should have read one of the first posts I made on the Leap about the risk taking calculus when one goes hiking. But you're here, so it all worked out, But don't do it again.

Talking about negative ev decisions, Nate, you should have read one of the first posts I made on the Leap about the risk taking calculus when one goes hiking. But you're here, so it all worked out, But don't do it again.

Once you're ninety five way to the tap and you can't turn back, can you?

Once you're ninety five way to the tap and you can't turn back, can you?

Yes? You can, absolutely, you can absolutely turn back even when you are ninety eight percent of the way there. You can, and you should. This is how accidents and accidental deaths happen. And I love you, Nate, and love your partner, and I want to see both of you healthy and back in New York City.

Yes? You can, absolutely, you can absolutely turn back even when you are ninety eight percent of the way there. You can, and you should. This is how accidents and accidental deaths happen. And I love you, Nate, and love your partner, and I want to see both of you healthy and back in New York City.

It would have been a relatively cool way to if you're going to die right on top of a mountain and the catskills anyway, I.

It would have been a relatively cool way to if you're going to die right on top of a mountain and the catskills anyway, I.

Would give a very moving speech at your funeral.

Would give a very moving speech at your funeral.

Not able to escape politics, obviously, and the first big confrontation, the first big test of Trump's will is these confirmation picks of cabinet secretaries that might be a little unconventional, and that's.

Not able to escape politics, obviously, and the first big confrontation, the first big test of Trump's will is these confirmation picks of cabinet secretaries that might be a little unconventional, and that's.

The understatement of the moment.

The understatement of the moment.

There are four that I think really are drawing the most attention, which are at my gates AREFK Junior, Pete Hegseth, and Tulsi Gabbard. Can tell you a story about Tulsi Gabbard, who is alleged by Democrats to be like a in the sphere of Russian influence.

There are four that I think really are drawing the most attention, which are at my gates AREFK Junior, Pete Hegseth, and Tulsi Gabbard. Can tell you a story about Tulsi Gabbard, who is alleged by Democrats to be like a in the sphere of Russian influence.

Yeah, let's hear story time.

Yeah, let's hear story time.

In twenty twenty, we went to New Hampshire and this is just before the pandemic kind of shuts regular campaigning down. A group of US five thirty eight ers and we a little habit of like showing up unannounced at campaign offices just to see what they're up to. It was a cute little technique. And then I think some of the campaigns got smart. At the Biden office, by the way, it was totally empty except for the figures Skater Christi Yamaguchi. That was interesting. At the Mayor Pete office. You know, the instantly recognized us and like tried to usher us out. Very organized. But Telsea Gabberd has this giant empty office and the only clerk or employee there had a thick Russian accent. I'm just saying this actually happened. Uh, just a little data point there.

In twenty twenty, we went to New Hampshire and this is just before the pandemic kind of shuts regular campaigning down. A group of US five thirty eight ers and we a little habit of like showing up unannounced at campaign offices just to see what they're up to. It was a cute little technique. And then I think some of the campaigns got smart. At the Biden office, by the way, it was totally empty except for the figures Skater Christi Yamaguchi. That was interesting. At the Mayor Pete office. You know, the instantly recognized us and like tried to usher us out. Very organized. But Telsea Gabberd has this giant empty office and the only clerk or employee there had a thick Russian accent. I'm just saying this actually happened. Uh, just a little data point there.

I love it that that is good story time. I didn't know where that uh, where that story was going to go, but but that's that's good story time. Yeah. So these when I say eyebrow raising, I meant eyebrow raising. So obviously Telsea gabbert we we know that there are rumors of Russia loving her. You've got our kid, Junior, which is the one that I am really worried about. We talked a little bit last week about the potential harm that could come to science during a Trump administration, and this just seems to highlight that that the potential harm is probably is going to be actual harm. So I think that, you know, we have people being put up for appointments where either they have no qualifications or they have anti qualifications in things that are actually going to stop very important research from happening for at least four years, probably longer, because we know that the ramifications of this can really well, the.

I love it that that is good story time. I didn't know where that uh, where that story was going to go, but but that's that's good story time. Yeah. So these when I say eyebrow raising, I meant eyebrow raising. So obviously Telsea gabbert we we know that there are rumors of Russia loving her. You've got our kid, Junior, which is the one that I am really worried about. We talked a little bit last week about the potential harm that could come to science during a Trump administration, and this just seems to highlight that that the potential harm is probably is going to be actual harm. So I think that, you know, we have people being put up for appointments where either they have no qualifications or they have anti qualifications in things that are actually going to stop very important research from happening for at least four years, probably longer, because we know that the ramifications of this can really well, the.

Average cabinet pic I think is measured in days. That is true.

Average cabinet pic I think is measured in days. That is true.

You know what, You know what, Nate, I actually didn't think of that that you've given me hope for the first time in a week. We do know from his last administration that yes, the average tenure of some of his picks is not long. So that's good.

You know what, You know what, Nate, I actually didn't think of that that you've given me hope for the first time in a week. We do know from his last administration that yes, the average tenure of some of his picks is not long. So that's good.

So there's that just for a baseline. If you get at polymarket O, the bending sites are similar. I consult for poly Market. Gates has a thirty percent chance of being confirmed, Tulsa Gabberd's seventy nine percent, RFK seventy six percent, and Pete Haggs seventy six percent as well. I'm trying to wonder if I'd take over under on those seventy.

So there's that just for a baseline. If you get at polymarket O, the bending sites are similar. I consult for poly Market. Gates has a thirty percent chance of being confirmed, Tulsa Gabberd's seventy nine percent, RFK seventy six percent, and Pete Haggs seventy six percent as well. I'm trying to wonder if I'd take over under on those seventy.

Okay, so Gates is the only one that they are thinking as an underdog right now.

Okay, so Gates is the only one that they are thinking as an underdog right now.

Yeah, Gates is the one where you have and now he can start to get in the game theory where you have like a lot of leaked reports of Republicans saying, oh everybody in the sentence against him. There are dozens of picks against him, but the fact that, like you don't have senators by name kind, they're saying, oh, everybody else is against them. They're not saying I am against him. They're saying other people my vote against him. So now we start to get in the game theory here where I have no doubt. First of all, Gates is seen as a loose cannon, as I minished lots of rumors of sexual and drug related promiscuities and infidelities and generally being a difficult colleague. Right, so I have no doubt that in a a private vote, what's the term of looking for a vote, an anonymous vote, that Gates and maybe even all these people would go down. Right. The issue is that is that if you oppose Trump, then Trump can try to kind of like nuke you from from orbit. So to do a basic math check here, Republicans, assuming that David McCormick wins in Pennsylvania, some networks haven't called. It doesn't seem to me like there's a path back for Bob Casey, but there will be a recount. But assuming fifty three, you have two Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins who have repeatedly defied Republicans Susan Collins is up for re election in twenty twenty six in what's now a pretty blue state, Ma, Ma, and all the all the liberals who like taxes, actually main doesn't particually high taxes, right, they kind of moved to Maine, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, staying very blue. She's in a very difficult race, and so she's not going to vote for any of these, I don't think. And Lisa Rakowski, I assume has shown enough willingness to defy Trump in the past that she won't either. But still Republicans have, uh, you know, fifty three fifty one. They only need fifty because Jade Vance is the vice president, so they can afford to lose one more. And so who are the two more that will vote to oppose? And the answer is, I've been trying to do some data work on looking at the partisan loyalty and the ideology of different Republican senators. Like there's not like an obvious like third name. Before you would have said you need a fourth name too, right before you would have said Mitt Romney. But Mitt Romney's been replaced by actually a relatively moderate Republican in Utah name I think John Curtis, let me dibble, Chick, it is John Curtis. You have some newcomers like McCormick and Pennsylvania, and you would think in the long term, I mean, he you know, he won the race if he does win by zero point three points or something of Pennsylvania's a swing state, but it's six years out until his next re elect and these kind of younger, newer Republicans tend to be very conservative. It's quite generational where where you know, the traditional kind of Chuck Grassley's of the world are the types who will who will stand for order in the US Senate and think the Senate needs to play an important role. But the younger guns tend not to. They to say, well, I'm just gonna be Trump Trump, Trump, and then you know, maybe when reelection maybe not right. Tom Tillis in North Carolina, I believe he's up to reelect in twenty twenty six as well. That's the other race that Democrats will really target. He has shown more streaks of moderation. Lindsey Graham on paper is more of an institutionalist Senate candidate, but he seems to I don't know, I'm not sure what I'm trying to imply here, But Lindsey Graham seems very reluctant to defy Trump. And there's a lot of revenge motivated politics, like Democrats this or that other bad thing. Right now it's our turn. And so you know, John Thune, the incoming majority leader, might be one canny for some of these, but there's not like there's not like an obvious third and fourth strikes.

Yeah, Gates is the one where you have and now he can start to get in the game theory where you have like a lot of leaked reports of Republicans saying, oh everybody in the sentence against him. There are dozens of picks against him, but the fact that, like you don't have senators by name kind, they're saying, oh, everybody else is against them. They're not saying I am against him. They're saying other people my vote against him. So now we start to get in the game theory here where I have no doubt. First of all, Gates is seen as a loose cannon, as I minished lots of rumors of sexual and drug related promiscuities and infidelities and generally being a difficult colleague. Right, so I have no doubt that in a a private vote, what's the term of looking for a vote, an anonymous vote, that Gates and maybe even all these people would go down. Right. The issue is that is that if you oppose Trump, then Trump can try to kind of like nuke you from from orbit. So to do a basic math check here, Republicans, assuming that David McCormick wins in Pennsylvania, some networks haven't called. It doesn't seem to me like there's a path back for Bob Casey, but there will be a recount. But assuming fifty three, you have two Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins who have repeatedly defied Republicans Susan Collins is up for re election in twenty twenty six in what's now a pretty blue state, Ma, Ma, and all the all the liberals who like taxes, actually main doesn't particually high taxes, right, they kind of moved to Maine, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, staying very blue. She's in a very difficult race, and so she's not going to vote for any of these, I don't think. And Lisa Rakowski, I assume has shown enough willingness to defy Trump in the past that she won't either. But still Republicans have, uh, you know, fifty three fifty one. They only need fifty because Jade Vance is the vice president, so they can afford to lose one more. And so who are the two more that will vote to oppose? And the answer is, I've been trying to do some data work on looking at the partisan loyalty and the ideology of different Republican senators. Like there's not like an obvious like third name. Before you would have said you need a fourth name too, right before you would have said Mitt Romney. But Mitt Romney's been replaced by actually a relatively moderate Republican in Utah name I think John Curtis, let me dibble, Chick, it is John Curtis. You have some newcomers like McCormick and Pennsylvania, and you would think in the long term, I mean, he you know, he won the race if he does win by zero point three points or something of Pennsylvania's a swing state, but it's six years out until his next re elect and these kind of younger, newer Republicans tend to be very conservative. It's quite generational where where you know, the traditional kind of Chuck Grassley's of the world are the types who will who will stand for order in the US Senate and think the Senate needs to play an important role. But the younger guns tend not to. They to say, well, I'm just gonna be Trump Trump, Trump, and then you know, maybe when reelection maybe not right. Tom Tillis in North Carolina, I believe he's up to reelect in twenty twenty six as well. That's the other race that Democrats will really target. He has shown more streaks of moderation. Lindsey Graham on paper is more of an institutionalist Senate candidate, but he seems to I don't know, I'm not sure what I'm trying to imply here, But Lindsey Graham seems very reluctant to defy Trump. And there's a lot of revenge motivated politics, like Democrats this or that other bad thing. Right now it's our turn. And so you know, John Thune, the incoming majority leader, might be one canny for some of these, but there's not like there's not like an obvious third and fourth strikes.

Yeah, And I think that when we're talking about the game theory, right, we're we're looking at a decision matrix where you look at kind of the payoff structure. Right, if we think about it in terms of a prisoner's dilemma, which this kind of is, you can cooperate, right, so you vote with the Republicans or you defect, which means that you join kind of the Democrats in opposing some of these picks. And then but we if we look at the incentives, I think that in the immediate time horizon, the disincentive to defect is so ridiculously strong, right because we what do we know about Trump? We know he's vindictive as fuck, right, Like he does not like it when people go against him. He's going to be president and he has a lot of authority, and we have already seen during his presidency and in the last four years that people say a lot of shit about him in private and then they still go and support him in public. Right, they are completely two faced in this. And if you think about this kind of as like a time horizon, right, like you're gonna like shit's going to hit the fan with Trump much sooner than you will be padded on the back and said you did the right thing for our country. Right. It's kind of like climate change if you think about it, right, They're like these abstract incentives like I stood up for democracy, like I stood up for not you know, putting a potential Russian operative or someone who's anti science in a position of science. Blah blah blah. It's very abstract for it versus I'm going to get punished, like bad things are going to happen to me, and you know, I'm going to really feel it if I step out of line. And so I just I do not see that there will be kind of this wave of Republicans breaking ranks, Like I think that there's even a good chance that Matt Gates is going to get confirmed.

Yeah, And I think that when we're talking about the game theory, right, we're we're looking at a decision matrix where you look at kind of the payoff structure. Right, if we think about it in terms of a prisoner's dilemma, which this kind of is, you can cooperate, right, so you vote with the Republicans or you defect, which means that you join kind of the Democrats in opposing some of these picks. And then but we if we look at the incentives, I think that in the immediate time horizon, the disincentive to defect is so ridiculously strong, right because we what do we know about Trump? We know he's vindictive as fuck, right, Like he does not like it when people go against him. He's going to be president and he has a lot of authority, and we have already seen during his presidency and in the last four years that people say a lot of shit about him in private and then they still go and support him in public. Right, they are completely two faced in this. And if you think about this kind of as like a time horizon, right, like you're gonna like shit's going to hit the fan with Trump much sooner than you will be padded on the back and said you did the right thing for our country. Right. It's kind of like climate change if you think about it, right, They're like these abstract incentives like I stood up for democracy, like I stood up for not you know, putting a potential Russian operative or someone who's anti science in a position of science. Blah blah blah. It's very abstract for it versus I'm going to get punished, like bad things are going to happen to me, and you know, I'm going to really feel it if I step out of line. And so I just I do not see that there will be kind of this wave of Republicans breaking ranks, Like I think that there's even a good chance that Matt Gates is going to get confirmed.

Yeah, I mean, you know, the one pushback is I wonder if if we're being proper about the prisoner's element, I actually think that like defection actually is voting for these picks.

Yeah, I mean, you know, the one pushback is I wonder if if we're being proper about the prisoner's element, I actually think that like defection actually is voting for these picks.

Okay, I guess that's the We can frame it either way, and like then you'll just flip my arguments. But why is defection voting?

Okay, I guess that's the We can frame it either way, and like then you'll just flip my arguments. But why is defection voting?

Because cooperation is from the perspective of the prisoners, who, in this I guess somewhat literal sense, are Republican senators, right. I don't think that they think that Matt Gates being Attorney General would be good for the Republican Party. It would necessarily even be good for Trump. I mean, he's politely described as a as a loose canon, high risk of scandals, to high profile position, of playing into every critique that Democrats have. And now all of a sudden, we're in an anti incumbent moment, and now Democrats gonna be pushing back in twenty twenty six, I mean, the the you know, if they pick up those two sentencets I mentioned in Maine and North Carolina, then it's forty nine point fifty one and they have opportunities two years later to then take back the Senate. If there's a president Gretchen Whitmer or Jos Shapiro or Raphael Warnock in twenty twenty eight and the House where Democrats almost won the House this time, I would have to imagine in a midterm year their favorite to pick up the House. And that means that, like they can throw a big wrench in Trump's agenda and do a bunch of investigations and whatever else. So they want to they want to cooperate with one another, but individually, their incentives are to defect.

Because cooperation is from the perspective of the prisoners, who, in this I guess somewhat literal sense, are Republican senators, right. I don't think that they think that Matt Gates being Attorney General would be good for the Republican Party. It would necessarily even be good for Trump. I mean, he's politely described as a as a loose canon, high risk of scandals, to high profile position, of playing into every critique that Democrats have. And now all of a sudden, we're in an anti incumbent moment, and now Democrats gonna be pushing back in twenty twenty six, I mean, the the you know, if they pick up those two sentencets I mentioned in Maine and North Carolina, then it's forty nine point fifty one and they have opportunities two years later to then take back the Senate. If there's a president Gretchen Whitmer or Jos Shapiro or Raphael Warnock in twenty twenty eight and the House where Democrats almost won the House this time, I would have to imagine in a midterm year their favorite to pick up the House. And that means that, like they can throw a big wrench in Trump's agenda and do a bunch of investigations and whatever else. So they want to they want to cooperate with one another, but individually, their incentives are to defect.

Right.

Right.

If you're not Alow, he's the weird case because he's kind of in this electoral zone, right, But if you're away, so.

If you're not Alow, he's the weird case because he's kind of in this electoral zone, right, But if you're away, so.

You're gonna you're flipping. You're flipping what I said, And I actually agree that that makes sense, that the that the labels of cooperation into action should change. And it's funny that it's funny that you say that because I actually thought ahead of time. I was like, wait, which ones are the co operators and which ones are the defectors. It wasn't clear cut to me, But I think your argument makes a lot of sense. So basically what we're saying, though, is that the incentives are basically for all of the Republicans to defect.

You're gonna you're flipping. You're flipping what I said, And I actually agree that that makes sense, that the that the labels of cooperation into action should change. And it's funny that it's funny that you say that because I actually thought ahead of time. I was like, wait, which ones are the co operators and which ones are the defectors. It wasn't clear cut to me, But I think your argument makes a lot of sense. So basically what we're saying, though, is that the incentives are basically for all of the Republicans to defect.

We'll be right back after this message now, and the person it's the elemit. You can't communicate these guys, can you know? So yeah, one way to do it might be to say all of us are going to vote against them, right, or a very large number of us, and so therefore if you want to try to primary thirty of us, then then go right ahead, right right. You know what probably happens usually in the modern day politicians, presidents, I should say, or set up majority leaders don't like to bring votes to the floor in lest they think they can win. Right, So maybe the answer is, like there is some pretense for why Gates drops out conditional upon him being nominated in the floor, then I guess he's probably a favorite. I mean, look, I I don't know. I think it's just like with the other three, you can kind of I think our k juniors wacky. I think, you know, I worry, I'm boring. I worry most about the vaccine stuff, even though he's kind of said, oh, I won't fuck with vaccines too much. I mean there's a long track record of I also, you know, I part of me wondering strategically whether Gates is like a sacrificial lamb to say, Okay, you get this one scalp, right, but you better not fuck with me on the rest and the kind of like an exploit implicit equilibrium there, and that.

We'll be right back after this message now, and the person it's the elemit. You can't communicate these guys, can you know? So yeah, one way to do it might be to say all of us are going to vote against them, right, or a very large number of us, and so therefore if you want to try to primary thirty of us, then then go right ahead, right right. You know what probably happens usually in the modern day politicians, presidents, I should say, or set up majority leaders don't like to bring votes to the floor in lest they think they can win. Right, So maybe the answer is, like there is some pretense for why Gates drops out conditional upon him being nominated in the floor, then I guess he's probably a favorite. I mean, look, I I don't know. I think it's just like with the other three, you can kind of I think our k juniors wacky. I think, you know, I worry, I'm boring. I worry most about the vaccine stuff, even though he's kind of said, oh, I won't fuck with vaccines too much. I mean there's a long track record of I also, you know, I part of me wondering strategically whether Gates is like a sacrificial lamb to say, Okay, you get this one scalp, right, but you better not fuck with me on the rest and the kind of like an exploit implicit equilibrium there, and that.

That really sucks because not only is RFK junior, not only is he anti vaccine, but he has also said during his campaign that he wanted to pause all funding and all research and of infectious disease period to give it a rest, Like, dude, we didn't do well during the first pandemic. This is not this is not gain of function research. This is just general research into infectious disease that does not seem like a good thing to do, right to just pause all of that funding. We know that fetal cell research is going to stop like this, These are really really important things that have really big consequences for public health and for the future. And I just like, to me, that's an incredibly like if Matt Gaetz is a sacrificial lamb, then we have some scary picks ahead of us, right, including that including putting, you know, the pentagon in the hands of someone what are his qualifications? Right, Like this is this is to me, it's a little bit it's it's not a little bit, it's a lot bit frightening to think about that. But I think, you know, I just do not see how the game theory works for anything other than confirmation at the beginning, and and that you know, maybe Matt Gates has withdrawn, right, like maybe that doesn't actually ever come before the Senate, like as you suggest, might might end up happening. But if the other ones all get confirmed, like, this is going to be a pretty scary administration.

That really sucks because not only is RFK junior, not only is he anti vaccine, but he has also said during his campaign that he wanted to pause all funding and all research and of infectious disease period to give it a rest, Like, dude, we didn't do well during the first pandemic. This is not this is not gain of function research. This is just general research into infectious disease that does not seem like a good thing to do, right to just pause all of that funding. We know that fetal cell research is going to stop like this, These are really really important things that have really big consequences for public health and for the future. And I just like, to me, that's an incredibly like if Matt Gaetz is a sacrificial lamb, then we have some scary picks ahead of us, right, including that including putting, you know, the pentagon in the hands of someone what are his qualifications? Right, Like this is this is to me, it's a little bit it's it's not a little bit, it's a lot bit frightening to think about that. But I think, you know, I just do not see how the game theory works for anything other than confirmation at the beginning, and and that you know, maybe Matt Gates has withdrawn, right, like maybe that doesn't actually ever come before the Senate, like as you suggest, might might end up happening. But if the other ones all get confirmed, like, this is going to be a pretty scary administration.

Yeah. I mean the other thing you think about is whether there are any Republicans who don't care because they plan to retire. Mitch McConnell is an interesting one, another one who has had some health issue. Has been in office for one, two, three, five seven terms. Now his intent is unknown as to whether he's running in twenty twenty six or no. I mean, look, I think politicians are ninety eight percent craven opportunity. Yeah, right, he won the popular vote, right, I mean, he improved his margin and like all but two or three states or something like that, right, and so, but I don't know. And it is a repeated game in the sense that Trump will do other things that they don't like and like if you kind of have to, like if you capitulate.

Yeah. I mean the other thing you think about is whether there are any Republicans who don't care because they plan to retire. Mitch McConnell is an interesting one, another one who has had some health issue. Has been in office for one, two, three, five seven terms. Now his intent is unknown as to whether he's running in twenty twenty six or no. I mean, look, I think politicians are ninety eight percent craven opportunity. Yeah, right, he won the popular vote, right, I mean, he improved his margin and like all but two or three states or something like that, right, and so, but I don't know. And it is a repeated game in the sense that Trump will do other things that they don't like and like if you kind of have to, like if you capitulate.

Now, I think you're you're kind of lining yourself up to capitulate, They're right.

Now, I think you're you're kind of lining yourself up to capitulate, They're right.

Yeah, No, I mean I think you're supposed to like throw. I mean, like I believe in this and things and life. I mean, if you kind of roll over for somebody, then they kind of correctly assume that you'll roll over the next time. And it's often best to like draw a line in the sand early if you're playing in like I mean, you know, one thing a lot of a lot of players do is is and it's gonna be dangerous actually, right, But like you know, if it's the first hand of the tournament and uh, and you raise and get three bets, so a player re re raises, you know, most humans, most poker players, psychologically, the first time it happens, you're more likely to get a call or even a four bet. It's harder to get that kind of aggressive action through the first time. People look at as a proxy for future aggression, so intuitively they I think probably under understand that.

Yeah, No, I mean I think you're supposed to like throw. I mean, like I believe in this and things and life. I mean, if you kind of roll over for somebody, then they kind of correctly assume that you'll roll over the next time. And it's often best to like draw a line in the sand early if you're playing in like I mean, you know, one thing a lot of a lot of players do is is and it's gonna be dangerous actually, right, But like you know, if it's the first hand of the tournament and uh, and you raise and get three bets, so a player re re raises, you know, most humans, most poker players, psychologically, the first time it happens, you're more likely to get a call or even a four bet. It's harder to get that kind of aggressive action through the first time. People look at as a proxy for future aggression, so intuitively they I think probably under understand that.

Yeah, no, I think I think that's right. I'm just remembering this one tournament where I played where a new guy came to the table. I three bet him and he just ripped it for like eighty big lines than someone else three bet him, and he did the exact same thing over. I don't think anyone three bet.

Yeah, no, I think I think that's right. I'm just remembering this one tournament where I played where a new guy came to the table. I three bet him and he just ripped it for like eighty big lines than someone else three bet him, and he did the exact same thing over. I don't think anyone three bet.

Him again, like the last hand of the day or the last hand before a break, right, people kind of want to go and break do whatever they're going to do. But then you're like, Okay, you're fucking exploiting me, right, bathroom, and now you're three betting me, and so fuck you them all in.

Him again, like the last hand of the day or the last hand before a break, right, people kind of want to go and break do whatever they're going to do. But then you're like, Okay, you're fucking exploiting me, right, bathroom, and now you're three betting me, and so fuck you them all in.

I'm wondering, you know, one of the things you said that was intriguing to me that it seems like a long shot. But I'm curious whether you actually think it might happen, Like, do you think that there's like a scenario where Republicans can get like thirty people to defect right, where it can be like a I don't think so. Like I think there are just too many people who believe in Trump and who and who actually like you know, don't don't want to defect but or cooperate. How likely is a scenario like that?

I'm wondering, you know, one of the things you said that was intriguing to me that it seems like a long shot. But I'm curious whether you actually think it might happen, Like, do you think that there's like a scenario where Republicans can get like thirty people to defect right, where it can be like a I don't think so. Like I think there are just too many people who believe in Trump and who and who actually like you know, don't don't want to defect but or cooperate. How likely is a scenario like that?

I mean, they certainly haven't shown much backbone in the past, and in some ways Trump has like more of a mandate than he. I'm like, I think the equilibrium might actually be that like that gates get sacrificed and the others go through, you know, and then they can say, okay, well we do aligned somewhere, right, we do relign and gates are just so unacceptable on many different yeah levels and kind of almost almost care and tease like a either a circus act or an administration that really kind of overreaches and it becomes like harder to rain Trump in later. And I don't know, I don't talk to Republican or Democratic senators for that matter, right, I mean, if you hear reporters who do, they're like, well, in private, they're pretty reasonable.

I mean, they certainly haven't shown much backbone in the past, and in some ways Trump has like more of a mandate than he. I'm like, I think the equilibrium might actually be that like that gates get sacrificed and the others go through, you know, and then they can say, okay, well we do aligned somewhere, right, we do relign and gates are just so unacceptable on many different yeah levels and kind of almost almost care and tease like a either a circus act or an administration that really kind of overreaches and it becomes like harder to rain Trump in later. And I don't know, I don't talk to Republican or Democratic senators for that matter, right, I mean, if you hear reporters who do, they're like, well, in private, they're pretty reasonable.

Well exactly in private, Like you have to do that shit in public, Like it doesn't count if it's in private. I have to say, like that's it only counts if you actually publicly then do it and put your money where your mouth is. It's like it's like people who can confidently to go back to poker very quickly. It's like the you know players on stream who always know what the correct thing to do is right and who confidently say, oh, you have to call here, you have to race here, you have to show if you have to do this, you have to do that right the chat experts. And then when you get them into that spot playing live without seeing the cards, all of a sudden, all of that expertise goes out the window and they have zero dollars in earnings as opposed to the people they're criticizing. So if you do things from a you know, backseat driver, I don't know how many other analogies.

Well exactly in private, Like you have to do that shit in public, Like it doesn't count if it's in private. I have to say, like that's it only counts if you actually publicly then do it and put your money where your mouth is. It's like it's like people who can confidently to go back to poker very quickly. It's like the you know players on stream who always know what the correct thing to do is right and who confidently say, oh, you have to call here, you have to race here, you have to show if you have to do this, you have to do that right the chat experts. And then when you get them into that spot playing live without seeing the cards, all of a sudden, all of that expertise goes out the window and they have zero dollars in earnings as opposed to the people they're criticizing. So if you do things from a you know, backseat driver, I don't know how many other analogies.

I can what they can also get.

I can what they can also get.

Through in there, it doesn't matter.

Through in there, it doesn't matter.

What they can also do is draw lots right where the let's say the fifteen Republican senators who are somewhat reasonable go into a room and they have it's like the NBA a lottery, right, and they pick thirteen names and the final two have to just effect from Trump on. Everything's knowing they'll be. But the way it works, you have little favors. Right. Maybe let's say, uh, you know, let's say that one of them is from Tennessee, and then you know, the senator from I know, Jim Rish from Idaho gets the last draw. They're like, how would you like to be the president of the University of Tennessee? Jim Rish GYGA football team.

What they can also do is draw lots right where the let's say the fifteen Republican senators who are somewhat reasonable go into a room and they have it's like the NBA a lottery, right, and they pick thirteen names and the final two have to just effect from Trump on. Everything's knowing they'll be. But the way it works, you have little favors. Right. Maybe let's say, uh, you know, let's say that one of them is from Tennessee, and then you know, the senator from I know, Jim Rish from Idaho gets the last draw. They're like, how would you like to be the president of the University of Tennessee? Jim Rish GYGA football team.

Now the impressions are coming out. I love it.

Now the impressions are coming out. I love it.

They should draw the should and one of them should be the fall Guide. You know, there are benefits to being the one outlier Republican maverick.

They should draw the should and one of them should be the fall Guide. You know, there are benefits to being the one outlier Republican maverick.

With that, let's take a short break and switch to actual quarterbacks and talking about football. So, the NFL has just announced that players are allowed to wear guardian caps when they're playing footballs. So a guardian cap, it's like this padded thing that you put over your helmet that will lower the risk of concussion. They're already being used during practices and now players can wear them during games as well. But a lot of players, the vast majority of players, in fact, the vast vast majority of players are not wearing them. And so I want to talk about what that decision calculus is, Like, why would you not where something that you know is going to make the game much safer for you and that is going to improve your long term health outcomes?

With that, let's take a short break and switch to actual quarterbacks and talking about football. So, the NFL has just announced that players are allowed to wear guardian caps when they're playing footballs. So a guardian cap, it's like this padded thing that you put over your helmet that will lower the risk of concussion. They're already being used during practices and now players can wear them during games as well. But a lot of players, the vast majority of players, in fact, the vast vast majority of players are not wearing them. And so I want to talk about what that decision calculus is, Like, why would you not where something that you know is going to make the game much safer for you and that is going to improve your long term health outcomes?

Yeah, I mean some of my input on this or inside of this. So from my book, I interviewed a friend of mine who's a former NFL player named Dave Anderson, and really good guy now runs a sports data company, and you know, he described the culture of the NFL where it really is a and I like football, not trying to be a prude here, right, but it really is like an almost warlike environment, right where it's like next man up and careers are short. And also you know, you have good data on like quarterbacks and a few other positions, but for the most part, all the alignment right are it's hard to evaluate, and so if you're seen as not being tough, then then you might not get that next opportunity, right, And he's like, yeah, there are guys who like are you know, who are these guys who are you know, big gracious football players. But if you're not willing to get in there and like get your head knocked around, then then then they'll you'll be bypassed.

Yeah, I mean some of my input on this or inside of this. So from my book, I interviewed a friend of mine who's a former NFL player named Dave Anderson, and really good guy now runs a sports data company, and you know, he described the culture of the NFL where it really is a and I like football, not trying to be a prude here, right, but it really is like an almost warlike environment, right where it's like next man up and careers are short. And also you know, you have good data on like quarterbacks and a few other positions, but for the most part, all the alignment right are it's hard to evaluate, and so if you're seen as not being tough, then then you might not get that next opportunity, right, And he's like, yeah, there are guys who like are you know, who are these guys who are you know, big gracious football players. But if you're not willing to get in there and like get your head knocked around, then then then they'll you'll be bypassed.

Right, absolutely, absolutely. I think that this macho culture has a lot to do with it, and a lot to do with the reluctance to adopt something that is clearly beneficial for you. By the way, speaking of psychology, names matter, words matter. Who the hell decided to call these guardian caps? Right, I'm wearing a guardian cap, you know, like my little grandmother cap that's guarding my head. Like call them something manly and macho, right, Like, I don't know, we can think about much better names that would make people want to adopt them more than Guardian cap. But that's just an aside. So I think that that what you're saying is absolutely true. We do have this culture. And by the way, I've seen some football games, like football's fun to watch, part of me doesn't want to see it because like every time someone gets hit on the head, you know, every time someone's neck snaps, I just want to close my eyes, you know, and just say, oh my god, concussion. No no, no, no no. But yeah, I understand it's a fun game to watch, but you know, gladiatorial contests used to be fun too, where people actually died. And to me, like this is this is the continuation of that people have loved blood sports and watching people get hurt and watching people go at each other, having people play war on the field over and over and over. This is not something that's new to America, Like this is this is something that I think has been an ingrained part of culture. I just wish that, you know, we would actually understand why it's so incredibly important to to try to to try to go back on that. You remember a few weeks ago, Nate, we were talking about the value of a human life. Right, what was that number that you seem to have at the tip of your finger. Ten million. So when people tell me that, you know, football players their salaries are, you know, way too high, I'm like, no, actually, the salaries are just right and sometimes too low, because they are literally just taking a flyer on their life, on their future, sanity, on their brain function, on They're taking years off of their life because a lot of these, you know, repeat concussions are going to mean that you die ten years sooner, twenty years sooner, that your healthy years are just completely reduced. So yeah, they should be paid these insane premiums because they are leveraging their health and their life for your viewing pleasure. And I just wish that we could get past that culture and understand, you know, the importance of protecting these players and not forcing them to make that choice. Right, instead of saying you can wear Guardian caps, why doesn't the NFL go and say from now on, this is the new helmet, right, this is the new regulation helmet that everyone wears.

Right, absolutely, absolutely. I think that this macho culture has a lot to do with it, and a lot to do with the reluctance to adopt something that is clearly beneficial for you. By the way, speaking of psychology, names matter, words matter. Who the hell decided to call these guardian caps? Right, I'm wearing a guardian cap, you know, like my little grandmother cap that's guarding my head. Like call them something manly and macho, right, Like, I don't know, we can think about much better names that would make people want to adopt them more than Guardian cap. But that's just an aside. So I think that that what you're saying is absolutely true. We do have this culture. And by the way, I've seen some football games, like football's fun to watch, part of me doesn't want to see it because like every time someone gets hit on the head, you know, every time someone's neck snaps, I just want to close my eyes, you know, and just say, oh my god, concussion. No no, no, no no. But yeah, I understand it's a fun game to watch, but you know, gladiatorial contests used to be fun too, where people actually died. And to me, like this is this is the continuation of that people have loved blood sports and watching people get hurt and watching people go at each other, having people play war on the field over and over and over. This is not something that's new to America, Like this is this is something that I think has been an ingrained part of culture. I just wish that, you know, we would actually understand why it's so incredibly important to to try to to try to go back on that. You remember a few weeks ago, Nate, we were talking about the value of a human life. Right, what was that number that you seem to have at the tip of your finger. Ten million. So when people tell me that, you know, football players their salaries are, you know, way too high, I'm like, no, actually, the salaries are just right and sometimes too low, because they are literally just taking a flyer on their life, on their future, sanity, on their brain function, on They're taking years off of their life because a lot of these, you know, repeat concussions are going to mean that you die ten years sooner, twenty years sooner, that your healthy years are just completely reduced. So yeah, they should be paid these insane premiums because they are leveraging their health and their life for your viewing pleasure. And I just wish that we could get past that culture and understand, you know, the importance of protecting these players and not forcing them to make that choice. Right, instead of saying you can wear Guardian caps, why doesn't the NFL go and say from now on, this is the new helmet, right, this is the new regulation helmet that everyone wears.

And by the way, at first yet the name and then at first I thought it was like, when I first heard about it was guardian cups, and I wonder if you got extra protection for your manhood and how that would be different. Maybe that's funny. I mean the other thing about these helmets or cups caps.

And by the way, at first yet the name and then at first I thought it was like, when I first heard about it was guardian cups, and I wonder if you got extra protection for your manhood and how that would be different. Maybe that's funny. I mean the other thing about these helmets or cups caps.

Excuse me, right, if they didn't even call them a helmet, they called them a cap, please continue.

Excuse me, right, if they didn't even call them a helmet, they called them a cap, please continue.

Right, You look, they look a little weird, right, I mean, they're they're raw form. They kind of it's like turtle shell look, and then you can kind of like drape like the team's logo over it, but like so it stands out and kind of everybody is kind of saying, Okay, there's a guy who's taking extra protection, right, I mean, you know, so some places will say that, like I don't like the way it feels, and you know, if the compromises performance, then then whatever, right, I mean, you know, I mean, if it's true that a purchect performance, then there's something there. But I think it's more that it looks Yeah, it looks like this is the sport. It's not the most progressive culture, and you're selecting for people who were selected for for their aggression and tolerance for risk. Because every position in the field except perhaps a kicker and a punter are undertaking significant risk every time they take the field, right, And I mean you you know, a huge percentage of players are going to face a severe injury at some point in their careers. It's kind of normal, unfortunately. And like one of the things Dave Anderson told me is that, yeah, if I text my being a play for the Houston Texans, mostly if I text my chet group of like human group chat excuse me, of Houston Texans buddies who played golf with or fans football with or whatever, then probably half of them are not really in great shape right now. Right, they can't do normal things that are normal forty something formerly healthy athletic male would do, and like, so they're already kind of like making this sacrifice. Yeah, so look, I mean I think, you know, the equilibrium is probably that the NFL has to like mandate maybe certain positions wear it or rookies after a certain date where it and also work kind of technology to make it more esthetically pleasing. I'm sure there's been resources poured into that.

Right, You look, they look a little weird, right, I mean, they're they're raw form. They kind of it's like turtle shell look, and then you can kind of like drape like the team's logo over it, but like so it stands out and kind of everybody is kind of saying, Okay, there's a guy who's taking extra protection, right, I mean, you know, so some places will say that, like I don't like the way it feels, and you know, if the compromises performance, then then whatever, right, I mean, you know, I mean, if it's true that a purchect performance, then there's something there. But I think it's more that it looks Yeah, it looks like this is the sport. It's not the most progressive culture, and you're selecting for people who were selected for for their aggression and tolerance for risk. Because every position in the field except perhaps a kicker and a punter are undertaking significant risk every time they take the field, right, And I mean you you know, a huge percentage of players are going to face a severe injury at some point in their careers. It's kind of normal, unfortunately. And like one of the things Dave Anderson told me is that, yeah, if I text my being a play for the Houston Texans, mostly if I text my chet group of like human group chat excuse me, of Houston Texans buddies who played golf with or fans football with or whatever, then probably half of them are not really in great shape right now. Right, they can't do normal things that are normal forty something formerly healthy athletic male would do, and like, so they're already kind of like making this sacrifice. Yeah, so look, I mean I think, you know, the equilibrium is probably that the NFL has to like mandate maybe certain positions wear it or rookies after a certain date where it and also work kind of technology to make it more esthetically pleasing. I'm sure there's been resources poured into that.

Right, absolutely, absolutely, And I do think that though that the mandate has to be it has to come from the top, Otherwise I don't see this change happening, and we already, by the way, see the players wearing them during practices, and I don't think there's any impact on performance, right, So everyone wears them during practice, and your eye will get used to it. It's going to stop looking goofy. Just think for a second, like try to visualize different sports uniforms. A ton of sports look goofy if you just think about it in the abstract. But we're used to seeing it, so it looks it looks totally normal, right, It just looks like the uniform for that sport. So I think that, you know, two years from now, people won't remember. Let me give you another example, skiing, right, So downhill skiing, no one used to wear helmets. So I started skiing when I was four years old, and no, but not a single helmet to be seen, right, Everyone's just wearing hats. Then you start seeing a few people, very early adopters wearing helmets after research came out became clear you know how important it was, how much it could protect you. And my family was actually incredibly early on that we basically immediately got helmets, and I never wanted to wear one because I looked silly, right because none of the other kids were wearing them, but we did anyway, and now you can't. Every single person on the mountain wears helmets, right Like, there's if you're the person who's not wearing a helmet, you look like a dumbass and people are like, who is this absolute idiot not wearing a helmet when everyone knows that you have to wear a helmet? And this happened in a decade, right like it was actually incredibly short when you think about it, from everyone just wears your winter hat to every single person wears a helmet, So these changes are absolutely possible, and it doesn't it no longer looks goofy. In fact, you look like an idiot for doing something different. So I'm willing to bet that if we see a mandate, we're going to start seeing you know that we will no longer even notice and be like, oh, you know, look how silly that looks. And we know that there are sports that have huge risk injuries, huge potential for concussions where the concussion rate is actually incredibly low, such as racing. Right so Formula one happening in Las Vegas in a few days, race car drivers those collisions. Holy shit, right, Like you would think that these guys would just like have concussions all the time. No, because they have these crazy helmets that not only protect their heads, but protect their necks and protect them from kind of that sort of whiplash that is what actually causes concussions a lot at the time. So you have these things that we see, we have the technology, we know how to do it, we know how to protect people, and yet there's this, just as you pointed it out, we're coming full circle. There's kind of this macho false bravado that makes it seem not manly to protect yourself. I hope that we're able to kind of turn that around because I want people to be able to enjoy sports. I want people to be able to enjoy football, and I want these players to have good lives and healthy lives ahead of them. You know. I don't want them to have to mortgage their marriages, their children, their future, everything just to bring some people pleasure for a few years.

Right, absolutely, absolutely, And I do think that though that the mandate has to be it has to come from the top, Otherwise I don't see this change happening, and we already, by the way, see the players wearing them during practices, and I don't think there's any impact on performance, right, So everyone wears them during practice, and your eye will get used to it. It's going to stop looking goofy. Just think for a second, like try to visualize different sports uniforms. A ton of sports look goofy if you just think about it in the abstract. But we're used to seeing it, so it looks it looks totally normal, right, It just looks like the uniform for that sport. So I think that, you know, two years from now, people won't remember. Let me give you another example, skiing, right, So downhill skiing, no one used to wear helmets. So I started skiing when I was four years old, and no, but not a single helmet to be seen, right, Everyone's just wearing hats. Then you start seeing a few people, very early adopters wearing helmets after research came out became clear you know how important it was, how much it could protect you. And my family was actually incredibly early on that we basically immediately got helmets, and I never wanted to wear one because I looked silly, right because none of the other kids were wearing them, but we did anyway, and now you can't. Every single person on the mountain wears helmets, right Like, there's if you're the person who's not wearing a helmet, you look like a dumbass and people are like, who is this absolute idiot not wearing a helmet when everyone knows that you have to wear a helmet? And this happened in a decade, right like it was actually incredibly short when you think about it, from everyone just wears your winter hat to every single person wears a helmet, So these changes are absolutely possible, and it doesn't it no longer looks goofy. In fact, you look like an idiot for doing something different. So I'm willing to bet that if we see a mandate, we're going to start seeing you know that we will no longer even notice and be like, oh, you know, look how silly that looks. And we know that there are sports that have huge risk injuries, huge potential for concussions where the concussion rate is actually incredibly low, such as racing. Right so Formula one happening in Las Vegas in a few days, race car drivers those collisions. Holy shit, right, Like you would think that these guys would just like have concussions all the time. No, because they have these crazy helmets that not only protect their heads, but protect their necks and protect them from kind of that sort of whiplash that is what actually causes concussions a lot at the time. So you have these things that we see, we have the technology, we know how to do it, we know how to protect people, and yet there's this, just as you pointed it out, we're coming full circle. There's kind of this macho false bravado that makes it seem not manly to protect yourself. I hope that we're able to kind of turn that around because I want people to be able to enjoy sports. I want people to be able to enjoy football, and I want these players to have good lives and healthy lives ahead of them. You know. I don't want them to have to mortgage their marriages, their children, their future, everything just to bring some people pleasure for a few years.

Now. Look, I mean again, self selected for muchismo population, and like you know, a kind of common theme of the show is that behaviors that seem irrational aren't necessarily irrational, I you know, because it's kind of how you define rationality and if you lose the prestige or but yeah, I look, I mean, you know, if you have some prominent players too who are like, I'm a unimpeachably cool NFL player and now I'm wearing this thing, right, then then that might change things a little bit. It's not like they're you know, in hockey. I mean, you know, some of these guys have like golden locks and the good looking guys, and they were afraid of decreasing their marketability right when the helmets came in and and but in football, you already don't really see the guy's face, right, they already have have a helmet on, and like it just seems kind of weird that, Like, I mean, so obviously from the league's perspective, why is there no mandate? I mean, because the NFL is incredibly resilient and popular, you know. But like the part of what's happened to is I think kind of football had gotten more like kind of you know, there were risks that liberals were worried about concussions in the NFL, and that kind of like died down a little bit. I think because football occupies this unique place in American society where people like it precisely because it's violent, and precisely because like it's this proxy for kind of like risk taking. But yeah, don't I don't know.

Now. Look, I mean again, self selected for muchismo population, and like you know, a kind of common theme of the show is that behaviors that seem irrational aren't necessarily irrational, I you know, because it's kind of how you define rationality and if you lose the prestige or but yeah, I look, I mean, you know, if you have some prominent players too who are like, I'm a unimpeachably cool NFL player and now I'm wearing this thing, right, then then that might change things a little bit. It's not like they're you know, in hockey. I mean, you know, some of these guys have like golden locks and the good looking guys, and they were afraid of decreasing their marketability right when the helmets came in and and but in football, you already don't really see the guy's face, right, they already have have a helmet on, and like it just seems kind of weird that, Like, I mean, so obviously from the league's perspective, why is there no mandate? I mean, because the NFL is incredibly resilient and popular, you know. But like the part of what's happened to is I think kind of football had gotten more like kind of you know, there were risks that liberals were worried about concussions in the NFL, and that kind of like died down a little bit. I think because football occupies this unique place in American society where people like it precisely because it's violent, and precisely because like it's this proxy for kind of like risk taking. But yeah, don't I don't know.

Yeah, Well, we'll see what happens. But I hope that I hope that the tides are shifting and that we will see change in the coming years. By the way, Nate, while you and I were talking, Trump said that he was going to be nominating medmet Oz to oversee Medicare and Medicaid, who will be working closely with RFK juniors. And we have this dystopian RFK and doctor OZ combination.

Yeah, Well, we'll see what happens. But I hope that I hope that the tides are shifting and that we will see change in the coming years. By the way, Nate, while you and I were talking, Trump said that he was going to be nominating medmet Oz to oversee Medicare and Medicaid, who will be working closely with RFK juniors. And we have this dystopian RFK and doctor OZ combination.

I don't know. I feel not available for anything.

I don't know. I feel not available for anything.

Yeah to me, wow, like I this is not a reality that I could have predicted.

Yeah to me, wow, like I this is not a reality that I could have predicted.

I mean, it kind of is pretty I mean, watched a lot of TV.

I mean, it kind of is pretty I mean, watched a lot of TV.

That's I guess that's true. I guess that's true. Let's see what happens next week. But these uh, these picks are getting more and more absurd, and the qualification levels, yes, being on TV seems to actually be a very high qualification.

That's I guess that's true. I guess that's true. Let's see what happens next week. But these uh, these picks are getting more and more absurd, and the qualification levels, yes, being on TV seems to actually be a very high qualification.

Do you remember the ad that Mimute OZ runs about complaining about the price of Crude Tae.

Do you remember the ad that Mimute OZ runs about complaining about the price of Crude Tae.

Yes in the grocery store completely. I do remember that ad, and I think we should all start rewatching it, rerunning it to try to get people to to understand what's happening that cruditay Ad Wow, what it Well? We we started with the cabinet, let's end on this absurdist note, and now all I can think about are crud de te and doctor us. Let us know what you think of the show. Reach out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot FM. Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kondakova.

Yes in the grocery store completely. I do remember that ad, and I think we should all start rewatching it, rerunning it to try to get people to to understand what's happening that cruditay Ad Wow, what it Well? We we started with the cabinet, let's end on this absurdist note, and now all I can think about are crud de te and doctor us. Let us know what you think of the show. Reach out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot FM. Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kondakova.

And byb Nate Silver.

And byb Nate Silver.

The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabel Carner. Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabel Carner. Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

If you like the show, please rate and review us so all the people can find us too. And if you want to listen to an AD free version, sign up for Pushkin Plus for six, ten and nine a month. You would access to AD free listening. Thanks for tuning in.

If you like the show, please rate and review us so all the people can find us too. And if you want to listen to an AD free version, sign up for Pushkin Plus for six, ten and nine a month. You would access to AD free listening. Thanks for tuning in.