Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova.

Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova.

And I'm Nate Silver. Today on the show, we'll talk about former President Donald Trump, who was convicted last week on thirty four at Filamy Charges.

And I'm Nate Silver. Today on the show, we'll talk about former President Donald Trump, who was convicted last week on thirty four at Filamy Charges.

And we're also going to be talking about an update from the first week of the World Series. I'm going to go into some of the psychological mistakes I've seen people make. But we're also going to give a big shout out to Nate, who is deep in an event of his own, fifteenth out of over twenty five hundred players who started this event.

And we're also going to be talking about an update from the first week of the World Series. I'm going to go into some of the psychological mistakes I've seen people make. But we're also going to give a big shout out to Nate, who is deep in an event of his own, fifteenth out of over twenty five hundred players who started this event.

And this week Thursday night, if you listen to this on Thursday, the NBA Finals begin. The Boston Celtics are at home against Dallas Mavericks. There's a big gap between betting markets and Cisco models. We will discuss why.

And this week Thursday night, if you listen to this on Thursday, the NBA Finals begin. The Boston Celtics are at home against Dallas Mavericks. There's a big gap between betting markets and Cisco models. We will discuss why.

So, Nate, before we get into the Trump verdict, I want to talk about I just want to nod to the fact that you're even here this morning, so in at like four thirty am, so I'm back on the East coast right now taping this from New Haven. So I get a text because as it turns out, I forgot to turn off my phone, so that was good. Sorry, it's okay, it's okay. Then I turned it off after that from Nate saying, you know, just bagged for the day in the fifteen hundred six Max. I am number fifteen of like three hundred and something left in chips. I'll still make the recording. And this is ten am my time, so Eastern time at seven am, Vegas time, and Nate is here and let the record show risky business listeners. Nate is a much more devoted host than I am, because damned if I would be recording after bagging at two am, five hours later, I would have sent a text to everyone being like, guys, we're really really sorry, we can't record today. I am fifteenth in chips and right now recording is negative ev for me. So anyway, Nate, thank you for being here. Let's get into Trump, so we'll.

So, Nate, before we get into the Trump verdict, I want to talk about I just want to nod to the fact that you're even here this morning, so in at like four thirty am, so I'm back on the East coast right now taping this from New Haven. So I get a text because as it turns out, I forgot to turn off my phone, so that was good. Sorry, it's okay, it's okay. Then I turned it off after that from Nate saying, you know, just bagged for the day in the fifteen hundred six Max. I am number fifteen of like three hundred and something left in chips. I'll still make the recording. And this is ten am my time, so Eastern time at seven am, Vegas time, and Nate is here and let the record show risky business listeners. Nate is a much more devoted host than I am, because damned if I would be recording after bagging at two am, five hours later, I would have sent a text to everyone being like, guys, we're really really sorry, we can't record today. I am fifteenth in chips and right now recording is negative ev for me. So anyway, Nate, thank you for being here. Let's get into Trump, so we'll.

Talk about that. But look, I mean it happens. We're going to talk on this episode about kind of real life intruding into best laid plans, because we'd be hypocrites if we if we didn't. By the way, I don't want to make this Trump thing about us and me also, but It's another thing that, like, I did not plan on Trump getting convicted of all these felony charges while I was out at the World Series, and that also kind of blew up a day. But you know, we'll talk about Trump first on his own terms and then in the polast I would get more into planning versus reality.

Talk about that. But look, I mean it happens. We're going to talk on this episode about kind of real life intruding into best laid plans, because we'd be hypocrites if we if we didn't. By the way, I don't want to make this Trump thing about us and me also, but It's another thing that, like, I did not plan on Trump getting convicted of all these felony charges while I was out at the World Series, and that also kind of blew up a day. But you know, we'll talk about Trump first on his own terms and then in the polast I would get more into planning versus reality.

So let's do that. So, as our listeners probably know, last week, former President Donald Trump was convicted guilty on all thirty four charges that he was up on in New York. So Nate, let's talk about that. Let's talk about what that means. And actually let's start with the fact that you said that you did not expect this to happen while you were at the World Series. Is that because you thought that the verdict would be later or because you did not expect him to be convicted on all of the thirty four charges.

So let's do that. So, as our listeners probably know, last week, former President Donald Trump was convicted guilty on all thirty four charges that he was up on in New York. So Nate, let's talk about that. Let's talk about what that means. And actually let's start with the fact that you said that you did not expect this to happen while you were at the World Series. Is that because you thought that the verdict would be later or because you did not expect him to be convicted on all of the thirty four charges.

Marie, I think you would probably have a better term for this than I would. It's a cognitive load kind of thing. Does some extent. I think people who are able to navigate multiple tasks are able to kind of shut things out and say I'm going to ignore this for now. Right at some point I understand that like Trump is before this jury, and if you've actually like looked at prediction markets, I'll took about that on the show from time to time. They had expected a verdict last week, and in fact expected a guilty verdict more likely than not. But no, this is not like two kind of the smart sharp traders. This is not an unexpected outcome. Trump had not been I didn't watch the trial, I want to be clear about that, but by the conventional wisdom people who watch it more closely, Trump had had not offered very much compelling argumentation. He had fallen asleep at various points during the trial. I think he's a little bit defiant obviously about seeing it as an opportunity for like a campaign exercise, spin exercise. And you know, I assume he thinks he won't go to actual jail at any point, although there's some chance in theory that he could. We are not legal analysts. I don't know if we're going not for much opinion about like is this the right case quote unquote to bring against Trump. I'm here to analyze public opinion a little bit more. And our guess is about what effect this might have on the polls most members of the public, if they were aware of the trial at all, did not expect a guilty verdict. I think because Trump has kind of of skated by so often with with relatively few consequences to become president after all for four years and may become president again for another four years. Expected there not to be consequences for his actions. So that's one reason why you might expect it to affect the polls, is because it comes as a surprise to to rank and file voters.

Marie, I think you would probably have a better term for this than I would. It's a cognitive load kind of thing. Does some extent. I think people who are able to navigate multiple tasks are able to kind of shut things out and say I'm going to ignore this for now. Right at some point I understand that like Trump is before this jury, and if you've actually like looked at prediction markets, I'll took about that on the show from time to time. They had expected a verdict last week, and in fact expected a guilty verdict more likely than not. But no, this is not like two kind of the smart sharp traders. This is not an unexpected outcome. Trump had not been I didn't watch the trial, I want to be clear about that, but by the conventional wisdom people who watch it more closely, Trump had had not offered very much compelling argumentation. He had fallen asleep at various points during the trial. I think he's a little bit defiant obviously about seeing it as an opportunity for like a campaign exercise, spin exercise. And you know, I assume he thinks he won't go to actual jail at any point, although there's some chance in theory that he could. We are not legal analysts. I don't know if we're going not for much opinion about like is this the right case quote unquote to bring against Trump. I'm here to analyze public opinion a little bit more. And our guess is about what effect this might have on the polls most members of the public, if they were aware of the trial at all, did not expect a guilty verdict. I think because Trump has kind of of skated by so often with with relatively few consequences to become president after all for four years and may become president again for another four years. Expected there not to be consequences for his actions. So that's one reason why you might expect it to affect the polls, is because it comes as a surprise to to rank and file voters.

But isn't it true? And please correct me if I'm wrong that New York is the only state where he has actually faced consequences because he did have to pay for you know, the hush many payments he did, and the defamation earlier, which.

But isn't it true? And please correct me if I'm wrong that New York is the only state where he has actually faced consequences because he did have to pay for you know, the hush many payments he did, and the defamation earlier, which.

Is a separate case, right, and each Jan Carol sexual assault case. So yeah, New York is kind of and and you know, I don't know how much you want to get into the I mean, this was considered of the four criminal cases, which is separate, by the way from the defamation case, which is a civil case, right.

Is a separate case, right, and each Jan Carol sexual assault case. So yeah, New York is kind of and and you know, I don't know how much you want to get into the I mean, this was considered of the four criminal cases, which is separate, by the way from the defamation case, which is a civil case, right.

This one was considered the weakest. Is is kind of the background that I had seen.

This one was considered the weakest. Is is kind of the background that I had seen.

Correct, I mean, the way Republicans would convey it is it's kind of like al Capone being convicted on income tax fraud instead of all the other stuff that al Capone, the.

Correct, I mean, the way Republicans would convey it is it's kind of like al Capone being convicted on income tax fraud instead of all the other stuff that al Capone, the.

Guy was convicted, it didn't matter, that was on income tax fraud.

Guy was convicted, it didn't matter, that was on income tax fraud.

Look, let me so let me you want to give us a little bit. You know, I am worried a little bit because the argument that worries me a bit is that in authoritarian countries, oftentimes, if there is an opposition leader who you want to disenfranchise, then you trump up some legal charges that may range from technically correct but exaggerated to entirely fabricated. You know, Alvin Bragg, the prosecutor, had had talked about, I mean kind of campaigned on being tougher on Trump. Right, it's in Manhattan, the place where something like eighty five nine of the voters that jurypool voted for Biden, although to be fair, there are some of them consumed media from sites like truth Social Trump's alternative to Twitter slash x. But look, the fact that Trump has been prosecuted and criticized and persecuted that may feed into his appeal for a certain strain of voter. However, given that reality, which you cannot undo, for better or worse, this point I think Biden is much better off with a guilty verdict than an acquittal, right, because you can't take back the fact that there are all these charges. You can't take back the fact that, like you know, to me, the election overturning January sixth stuff is a couple of orders of magnitude, meaning literally hundreds of times more serious than anything involving a former porna. But you know, again, plans to always kind of match the deal reality. I think the more buttoned up prosecutions in the January sixth try have taken a long time. But anyway, Trump has been convicted on this first set of charges. He will almost for sure appeal. I would think the sentencing phase will still occur in July, just before the Republican National Convention. But that's where we stand.

Look, let me so let me you want to give us a little bit. You know, I am worried a little bit because the argument that worries me a bit is that in authoritarian countries, oftentimes, if there is an opposition leader who you want to disenfranchise, then you trump up some legal charges that may range from technically correct but exaggerated to entirely fabricated. You know, Alvin Bragg, the prosecutor, had had talked about, I mean kind of campaigned on being tougher on Trump. Right, it's in Manhattan, the place where something like eighty five nine of the voters that jurypool voted for Biden, although to be fair, there are some of them consumed media from sites like truth Social Trump's alternative to Twitter slash x. But look, the fact that Trump has been prosecuted and criticized and persecuted that may feed into his appeal for a certain strain of voter. However, given that reality, which you cannot undo, for better or worse, this point I think Biden is much better off with a guilty verdict than an acquittal, right, because you can't take back the fact that there are all these charges. You can't take back the fact that, like you know, to me, the election overturning January sixth stuff is a couple of orders of magnitude, meaning literally hundreds of times more serious than anything involving a former porna. But you know, again, plans to always kind of match the deal reality. I think the more buttoned up prosecutions in the January sixth try have taken a long time. But anyway, Trump has been convicted on this first set of charges. He will almost for sure appeal. I would think the sentencing phase will still occur in July, just before the Republican National Convention. But that's where we stand.

Yeah, And obviously I'm not an expert in the polling part of this, And so I'm curious because you know, I've been reading the news like I'm a good news consumer. I've been following the trial. I'm still a little bit bummed that it wasn't televised, but it wasn't so I was following from Afar and I have read kind of takes on both sides that, as you said, you know, given that this happened and that we can't control the timing, it's great that at least the verdict was guilty. However, I have also seen kind of the other side that this just strengthens Trump's position among a huge, kind of swath of Trump voters and that a lot of people see this as kind of part of his brand.

Yeah, And obviously I'm not an expert in the polling part of this, And so I'm curious because you know, I've been reading the news like I'm a good news consumer. I've been following the trial. I'm still a little bit bummed that it wasn't televised, but it wasn't so I was following from Afar and I have read kind of takes on both sides that, as you said, you know, given that this happened and that we can't control the timing, it's great that at least the verdict was guilty. However, I have also seen kind of the other side that this just strengthens Trump's position among a huge, kind of swath of Trump voters and that a lot of people see this as kind of part of his brand.

Right.

Right.

This is the guy who said I can stand in the middle of fIF if I haven't even shoot someone and still be elected. And here he is saying, like, see, I don't follow your laws, like I'm you know, I'm a renegade. I'm my own man. And they're like, yeah, you know, And this this just shows that, you know, the judicial system is corrupt. So I guess there are two separate questions here. One, do you have a sense now or is it a little bit too early to figure out how this is going to go down kind of in the polls in the Trump base? And two, and this is a kind of a separate question, let's talk a little bit afterwards about the judicial impact of this and kind of the delegitimization of the judicial system that Trump is trying to push as a story.

This is the guy who said I can stand in the middle of fIF if I haven't even shoot someone and still be elected. And here he is saying, like, see, I don't follow your laws, like I'm you know, I'm a renegade. I'm my own man. And they're like, yeah, you know, And this this just shows that, you know, the judicial system is corrupt. So I guess there are two separate questions here. One, do you have a sense now or is it a little bit too early to figure out how this is going to go down kind of in the polls in the Trump base? And two, and this is a kind of a separate question, let's talk a little bit afterwards about the judicial impact of this and kind of the delegitimization of the judicial system that Trump is trying to push as a story.

So as gamblers or poker players, we think in terms of the marginal effect on something. Right, if you beamed to twenty twenty four from ten years ago, you'd be shocked by a lot of things. You'd be shocked that a a Town Trump had become president. You'd be be that Trump had was running for president again and in fact was tied her ahead in the polls, despite his various criminal charges, and how kind of his first term ended with January sixth, and with COVID, you'd be surprised that the trial wasn't in some sense a bigger deal. I mean, people have been pretty tuned out to this until the verdict occurred, in to even people like me, I guess, in the news business to some extent. However, people in our world, Maria, the poker kind of gambling world, think in terms of what's priced in quote unquote to the stock. So if you look at betting markets a week ago, which was just before when we're taking its its Tuesday morning Vegas time, in prodiction markets, Trump had a fifty three percent chance of winning the election before the verdict. Now that is fifty one percent, So he has follown by two percentage points relative to where he was pre verdict. And by the way, because people assumed before or that he was more likely than not to be guilty. If this had come totally on the blue, it might have been a bigger shift. But basically, like people putting money on the line, follow the conventional wisdom that outlined earlier, which is that you know, being a convicted felon is probably bad, right, I mean, this is kind of where we are probably in politics now. It's certainly worse for Trump than being an acquitted, accused felon who, even in New York could have been found guilty. I mean imagine that, right, That would have been I think a big feather in Trump's cap and a big disaster for Biden. Now, with that said, for the most part, now people are making educated guesses about the impact. There is some kind of instant turnaround polling, some of that shows Biden gaining a point or two. Net is actually one poll from Morning Consult that has Biden actually losing a point or so. But we don't have a high quality traditional pollster going and doing a proper sample with a proper amount of time, asking the right questions to a demographically balanced sample, because that just takes a little bit of time, and the Polsters apparently didn't necessarily plan and advance with this verdict occurring either.

So as gamblers or poker players, we think in terms of the marginal effect on something. Right, if you beamed to twenty twenty four from ten years ago, you'd be shocked by a lot of things. You'd be shocked that a a Town Trump had become president. You'd be be that Trump had was running for president again and in fact was tied her ahead in the polls, despite his various criminal charges, and how kind of his first term ended with January sixth, and with COVID, you'd be surprised that the trial wasn't in some sense a bigger deal. I mean, people have been pretty tuned out to this until the verdict occurred, in to even people like me, I guess, in the news business to some extent. However, people in our world, Maria, the poker kind of gambling world, think in terms of what's priced in quote unquote to the stock. So if you look at betting markets a week ago, which was just before when we're taking its its Tuesday morning Vegas time, in prodiction markets, Trump had a fifty three percent chance of winning the election before the verdict. Now that is fifty one percent, So he has follown by two percentage points relative to where he was pre verdict. And by the way, because people assumed before or that he was more likely than not to be guilty. If this had come totally on the blue, it might have been a bigger shift. But basically, like people putting money on the line, follow the conventional wisdom that outlined earlier, which is that you know, being a convicted felon is probably bad, right, I mean, this is kind of where we are probably in politics now. It's certainly worse for Trump than being an acquitted, accused felon who, even in New York could have been found guilty. I mean imagine that, right, That would have been I think a big feather in Trump's cap and a big disaster for Biden. Now, with that said, for the most part, now people are making educated guesses about the impact. There is some kind of instant turnaround polling, some of that shows Biden gaining a point or two. Net is actually one poll from Morning Consult that has Biden actually losing a point or so. But we don't have a high quality traditional pollster going and doing a proper sample with a proper amount of time, asking the right questions to a demographically balanced sample, because that just takes a little bit of time, and the Polsters apparently didn't necessarily plan and advance with this verdict occurring either.

They're probably at the World Series of Poker with you.

They're probably at the World Series of Poker with you.

You never you never know, Maria, I mean, you never know who you'll see at the World Series. However, this is important because Trip raised one hundred and forty one million dollars in May, bolstered in part by this guilty verdict. He had a massive amount of four eight hour fundraising. I think money's a little bit overrated in presidential campaigns. But the point is, yet his base is really enthused, and by the way, Biden's base is really enthused too. They're tweeting lots of memes about, you know, Donald Trump in a prison jumpsuit and things like that. I wouldn't have dared to even watch MSNBC. What would have happened on Thursday and Friday and all of that right to me, though, these are not the voter who matter because their votes are already locked in. Instead, it's the kind of casual, normy voter who says, no matter what else, Donald Trump is a condicted felon, and even the New York Post, for example, which I used. The New York Post is like a benchmark of conservative but not totally red pilled Fox News opinion. They're trying to in a competitive news market. They're trying to, you know, they like the actual news. And the New York Post had liked the banner headline about Trump being guilty. They weren't trying to spin it too much. So everybody saw this headline about Trump is guilty of thirty six or thirty four. I mean, Trump is guilty of thirty four.

You never you never know, Maria, I mean, you never know who you'll see at the World Series. However, this is important because Trip raised one hundred and forty one million dollars in May, bolstered in part by this guilty verdict. He had a massive amount of four eight hour fundraising. I think money's a little bit overrated in presidential campaigns. But the point is, yet his base is really enthused, and by the way, Biden's base is really enthused too. They're tweeting lots of memes about, you know, Donald Trump in a prison jumpsuit and things like that. I wouldn't have dared to even watch MSNBC. What would have happened on Thursday and Friday and all of that right to me, though, these are not the voter who matter because their votes are already locked in. Instead, it's the kind of casual, normy voter who says, no matter what else, Donald Trump is a condicted felon, and even the New York Post, for example, which I used. The New York Post is like a benchmark of conservative but not totally red pilled Fox News opinion. They're trying to in a competitive news market. They're trying to, you know, they like the actual news. And the New York Post had liked the banner headline about Trump being guilty. They weren't trying to spin it too much. So everybody saw this headline about Trump is guilty of thirty six or thirty four. I mean, Trump is guilty of thirty four.

Fallon each Inflation's rail. Inflation's rail.

Fallon each Inflation's rail. Inflation's rail.

Another problem for Bide. But look, but like part of it is what are the basic, simple, stylized facts about the election? You know, for Biden, the fact is that prices are a lot higher than they were four years ago. Now you can debate that and say, well, most that happened in twenty twenty two, and inflation has slowed down now. And by the way, you've had inflation all around the world, and it's kind of maybe not entirely Biden's fault, and and and the jobs market is good. But in politics, when you're explaining you're losing, is the is the axiom, It's simplar like when Biden is the fact that Biden is eighty one years old, and I think often looks an acts like it is a simple fact. By the way, Trump is seventy seven, will turn seventy eight before too much longer. You know, that fact is very hard for Biden to overcome. You can spend and say, well, Trump is almost as old and Biden Biden is, you know, managing the toughest job in the world, and whatever else. We have better healthcare, But like the more explaining you're doing, you're losing it. In this case, it's Trump and his team on their heels, right, They're the ones who are saying this prostitution is unfair and how can you expect a jury verdict in New York to be fair? And blah blah blah blah blah blah.

Another problem for Bide. But look, but like part of it is what are the basic, simple, stylized facts about the election? You know, for Biden, the fact is that prices are a lot higher than they were four years ago. Now you can debate that and say, well, most that happened in twenty twenty two, and inflation has slowed down now. And by the way, you've had inflation all around the world, and it's kind of maybe not entirely Biden's fault, and and and the jobs market is good. But in politics, when you're explaining you're losing, is the is the axiom, It's simplar like when Biden is the fact that Biden is eighty one years old, and I think often looks an acts like it is a simple fact. By the way, Trump is seventy seven, will turn seventy eight before too much longer. You know, that fact is very hard for Biden to overcome. You can spend and say, well, Trump is almost as old and Biden Biden is, you know, managing the toughest job in the world, and whatever else. We have better healthcare, But like the more explaining you're doing, you're losing it. In this case, it's Trump and his team on their heels, right, They're the ones who are saying this prostitution is unfair and how can you expect a jury verdict in New York to be fair? And blah blah blah blah blah blah.

Right, Yeah, and I'd actually I'd love to just pause and just go deep, more deeply on to that point, because I think that elections aside, right, since we don't have the poll numbers yet, and we probably won't when this podcast comes out in a few days, but what we are already seeing is kind of what I'd alluded to before. The arguments that Trump has been making for quite some time about the fact that you can't trust our judicial system, right, the judicial system is corrupt, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And he's been making this argument at every single level of government. And I think that that's kind of another a long term consequence that might actually kind of last longer than this particular election, this particular trial, because what he's doing is undermining one of the pillars of democracy and the system that traditionally the American public has had the most trust in. And now we see that trust eroding because Trump keeps repeating over and over and over these statements which are blatant lies. But as a psychologist, I can say that it doesn't matter because the more someone repeats a lie, it starts to feeling like the truth.

Right, Yeah, and I'd actually I'd love to just pause and just go deep, more deeply on to that point, because I think that elections aside, right, since we don't have the poll numbers yet, and we probably won't when this podcast comes out in a few days, but what we are already seeing is kind of what I'd alluded to before. The arguments that Trump has been making for quite some time about the fact that you can't trust our judicial system, right, the judicial system is corrupt, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And he's been making this argument at every single level of government. And I think that that's kind of another a long term consequence that might actually kind of last longer than this particular election, this particular trial, because what he's doing is undermining one of the pillars of democracy and the system that traditionally the American public has had the most trust in. And now we see that trust eroding because Trump keeps repeating over and over and over these statements which are blatant lies. But as a psychologist, I can say that it doesn't matter because the more someone repeats a lie, it starts to feeling like the truth.

Yeah. Look, trust in almost every major American institution to some extent. The military is an exception, but almost every major American institution has declined over the past ten twenty thirty years. How much Trump is a cause of that versus a symptom is a debate I'm sure that academics and historians will have for a long time. I mean, you know, Trump takes advantage of low trust voters. We're in a downward trust spiral in the US. Trump is a major kind of cog in that machine, but not the only cog. I mean, I don't know, I Maria on the show. I want to be able to express ambiguous or ambivalent opinions. I have ambivalent feelings about the prosecution by Alvin Bragg. If I spent one hundred more hours looking at it, I might have stronger feelings one way or the other. But you know, I do think it's probably right. I think if you kind of surveyed most nonpartisan legal experts, they would say that, like to turn these into felony charges is not unheard of, but is unusual. And in a cistical sense, you would infer that Trump's status as a former president kind of as part of that. But you know, it's not great for the country that you have a active presidential candidate who's fifty to fifty to become president again, and that it took so long to bring these charges to trial, that the ones that do go to trial are I think, by anyone's definition, the weakest charges by in the more kind of partisan jurisdiction. It's not it's not ideal.

Yeah. Look, trust in almost every major American institution to some extent. The military is an exception, but almost every major American institution has declined over the past ten twenty thirty years. How much Trump is a cause of that versus a symptom is a debate I'm sure that academics and historians will have for a long time. I mean, you know, Trump takes advantage of low trust voters. We're in a downward trust spiral in the US. Trump is a major kind of cog in that machine, but not the only cog. I mean, I don't know, I Maria on the show. I want to be able to express ambiguous or ambivalent opinions. I have ambivalent feelings about the prosecution by Alvin Bragg. If I spent one hundred more hours looking at it, I might have stronger feelings one way or the other. But you know, I do think it's probably right. I think if you kind of surveyed most nonpartisan legal experts, they would say that, like to turn these into felony charges is not unheard of, but is unusual. And in a cistical sense, you would infer that Trump's status as a former president kind of as part of that. But you know, it's not great for the country that you have a active presidential candidate who's fifty to fifty to become president again, and that it took so long to bring these charges to trial, that the ones that do go to trial are I think, by anyone's definition, the weakest charges by in the more kind of partisan jurisdiction. It's not it's not ideal.

No, it's not so, Nate. If I'm going to go back through this and try to metabolize all of it, what are the key Let's say two things I should take away from this analysis from our conversation.

No, it's not so, Nate. If I'm going to go back through this and try to metabolize all of it, what are the key Let's say two things I should take away from this analysis from our conversation.

Look, I say number one, pay more attention to the marginal voter, not the cable news punted, but the marginal voter who was not paying attention to every detail in the white and the race for the White House, but who sees big banner headlines Trump convicted, Trump guilty. Number two, be patient as you wait for the polls, because these marginal voters are hard to reach. The quick and dirty polls may not reach them yet, so we're going on limited information. And number three, I think separate out the question of is this good or bad for the country from is this good or bad for Joe Biden and Donald Trump? Right, I mean, those are different questions. We've tried to mainly focus on the electoral impact here and not pretend that we're legal scholars.

Look, I say number one, pay more attention to the marginal voter, not the cable news punted, but the marginal voter who was not paying attention to every detail in the white and the race for the White House, but who sees big banner headlines Trump convicted, Trump guilty. Number two, be patient as you wait for the polls, because these marginal voters are hard to reach. The quick and dirty polls may not reach them yet, so we're going on limited information. And number three, I think separate out the question of is this good or bad for the country from is this good or bad for Joe Biden and Donald Trump? Right, I mean, those are different questions. We've tried to mainly focus on the electoral impact here and not pretend that we're legal scholars.

Nate, I am so excited for you. Week one of the World Series has wrapped. I unfortunately have left Las Vegas, so I haven't been able to play after the first two events because I have some other commitments. I'll be back next week. But you, while I've been traveling the world to glamorous New Haven, you've been running up quite the trip stack in the fifteen hundred dollars six max event, which is incredibly exciting. So you are in the money. So for people who don't play poker, that means that Nate has already cashed. So every single player eliminated from this point on is going to be making money. You are about to start day two of the tournament. So you found your first bag of the series, which means you've bagged up chips. There are over three hundred players left. I don't remember how many. I looked this up before we started taping, but I don't remember. It's like three hundred and thirty something like that. Does that sound right to you?

Nate, I am so excited for you. Week one of the World Series has wrapped. I unfortunately have left Las Vegas, so I haven't been able to play after the first two events because I have some other commitments. I'll be back next week. But you, while I've been traveling the world to glamorous New Haven, you've been running up quite the trip stack in the fifteen hundred dollars six max event, which is incredibly exciting. So you are in the money. So for people who don't play poker, that means that Nate has already cashed. So every single player eliminated from this point on is going to be making money. You are about to start day two of the tournament. So you found your first bag of the series, which means you've bagged up chips. There are over three hundred players left. I don't remember how many. I looked this up before we started taping, but I don't remember. It's like three hundred and thirty something like that. Does that sound right to you?

And it's like, what those counts are? Delay? It's like, all right, so twenty five hundred started, of which about I think one to ninety remain, and I'm in fifteenth place.

And it's like, what those counts are? Delay? It's like, all right, so twenty five hundred started, of which about I think one to ninety remain, and I'm in fifteenth place.

Sound yeah, So Nate, you are in fifteenth place, and we're going to talk about the three biggest mistakes I've been seeing at the tables in the week that I played. But it seems like before we get into that, it seems like you have probably not been making these mistakes because you are now fifteenth in chips. So just you know, first of all, congratulations, so well say thank you. We are say thank you, we are able to Okay, thank you, Maria. Okay, now I won't Okay.

Sound yeah, So Nate, you are in fifteenth place, and we're going to talk about the three biggest mistakes I've been seeing at the tables in the week that I played. But it seems like before we get into that, it seems like you have probably not been making these mistakes because you are now fifteenth in chips. So just you know, first of all, congratulations, so well say thank you. We are say thank you, we are able to Okay, thank you, Maria. Okay, now I won't Okay.

This is fun because we can put this episode in a little bit of a time capsule again in the realities of the highly produced podcast world. We are taping this on early Tuesday morning, Vegas time. It will come out in your feeds on Thursday. By the time you listen to this, the tournament that I'm playing right now will be over. I could have won my first bracelet. Much more likely suggests I will been knocked out at some point, you know, just after lunch today, and then be disappointed about that's about.

This is fun because we can put this episode in a little bit of a time capsule again in the realities of the highly produced podcast world. We are taping this on early Tuesday morning, Vegas time. It will come out in your feeds on Thursday. By the time you listen to this, the tournament that I'm playing right now will be over. I could have won my first bracelet. Much more likely suggests I will been knocked out at some point, you know, just after lunch today, and then be disappointed about that's about.

Just after lunch. You're lasting through lunch. That's great.

Just after lunch. You're lasting through lunch. That's great.

I mean, look, I do have a lot of chips, It's true, a lot of chips. I have a lot of short stacks at my table. So but like one thing I like to do if I make a Day two or Day three is to situate myself in terms of rational expectations, right, in this tournament. Last year, only ten percent of the field who made Day two made the final day Day three. Now I have a well above average chip stack, but even knowing that, I know that seventy five ish percent of the time, if I'm being realistic, my day will end with busting out of this tournament and deciding whether to enter a different tournament instead. So I think always kind of situating yourself and understand that you can have a great Day one and the odds are still against you. Just it's a very very hard marit to winning tournament or making a final table when there are twenty five hundred people. You need to kind of keep rolling the dice and having it coming up six is like three times in a row, or maybe more than that, more than that, right, like yeah, four times in a row. Right, It's pretty it's pretty hard for that to for that to happen. And having the first six and the second six come up six is is just kind of the first the first you know, halfway through the marathon, so to speak.

I mean, look, I do have a lot of chips, It's true, a lot of chips. I have a lot of short stacks at my table. So but like one thing I like to do if I make a Day two or Day three is to situate myself in terms of rational expectations, right, in this tournament. Last year, only ten percent of the field who made Day two made the final day Day three. Now I have a well above average chip stack, but even knowing that, I know that seventy five ish percent of the time, if I'm being realistic, my day will end with busting out of this tournament and deciding whether to enter a different tournament instead. So I think always kind of situating yourself and understand that you can have a great Day one and the odds are still against you. Just it's a very very hard marit to winning tournament or making a final table when there are twenty five hundred people. You need to kind of keep rolling the dice and having it coming up six is like three times in a row, or maybe more than that, more than that, right, like yeah, four times in a row. Right, It's pretty it's pretty hard for that to for that to happen. And having the first six and the second six come up six is is just kind of the first the first you know, halfway through the marathon, so to speak.

Well, I think that that's a very healthy attitude. I think too many people get very excited about having lots of chips. That said, having lots of chips is better than not having lots of chips. And from what I know about your playing style, you're an aggressive player who knows how to push that advantage, which I think is really important. And I think you have a very good attitude coming into this. So now let's you know, have a positive mindset and say that this is going to be your first bracelet or at least a final table. And I say that completely selflessly because we have no swap in this event, because I have not played it. So so this is this is all you, and I really I wish you the best, and let me give you some advice for the three top things not to do that I've seen.

Well, I think that that's a very healthy attitude. I think too many people get very excited about having lots of chips. That said, having lots of chips is better than not having lots of chips. And from what I know about your playing style, you're an aggressive player who knows how to push that advantage, which I think is really important. And I think you have a very good attitude coming into this. So now let's you know, have a positive mindset and say that this is going to be your first bracelet or at least a final table. And I say that completely selflessly because we have no swap in this event, because I have not played it. So so this is this is all you, and I really I wish you the best, and let me give you some advice for the three top things not to do that I've seen.

Yeah, what have you been What have you been seeing that? Uh, that players shouldn't be doing?

Yeah, what have you been What have you been seeing that? Uh, that players shouldn't be doing?

All right, So I've been seeing a lot of things that players shouldn't be doing. So I played, let's say, I played two World Series events this past week, and then I played a win event, so the Win eleven hundred event as well. So I've seen a few different player pools. And this is me generalizing from everything that I've been seeing, what are the three most common mistakes? By far? Number one that I have seen is what's known in psychology as the sunk cost fallacy, and what the sunk cost fallacy means is that you make a decision and then when the decision environment changes, when the information changes, when the data change, and your decision no longer makes sense. Instead of walking away, instead of saying, Okay, I made the right decision before it's no longer the right decision, you stay. You stick with it. You put good money after bad, you know, good time after bad. You stay in that decision because you say, well, I've already invested so much. In poker, there's a concept known as pot committed, meaning I've already put so many chips in the middle that I am committed to the pot. And I think that that is actually one of the stupidest concepts in poker. I mean, I just think it's asinine, like so so dumb. I cannot I can't even begin to say. Because decisions are not made in a vacuum. It does not matter how many chips you put in one move ago you know, pre flop or on the flop, as long as you have chips left. If you now know that your beat right, if you now know that the decision environment has changed, fold walk away, keep the chips that you have. It's a huge lesson for life, by the way, being able to walk away, and I still have something left, and I should, you know, I should be able to use that. I think that's a really important life skill. But one of the most important that I've learned from poker is kind of that. And let me tell you a specific hand where I saw this play out that I think is kind of illustrative of this idea. So in this hand, I think we're playing eight handed, and I raise from under the gun, so I'm first to act, and I have pocket kings, so I raise, and then another player three bets me, so he re raises from the button. So that's, you know, very strong position. Obviously he'll always be lost to act. The button is yours, your best position. I don't love, you know, playing huge pots out of positions. So I four bet, which means I then reraise him. At this point, the only hand I lose to is aces, and I'm not particularly you know, you can't see monsters under the bed, so I reraise and he calls and we go to the flop, so it's just the two of us and the flop comes Queen High and it's all hearts. I think it's six or eight Queen, all hearts. I do not have the King of Hearts. I check, and he bets, and I call, even though you know, at this point I could be drawing dead, right, he could have Ace King of Hearts, right, he could have Ace Jack of Hearts. He could already have flopped the nuts. And he beats pretty big, but I can't fault to one bet and then the turn is an off suit king. So at this point I now have top set, and so I check and he bets again, but he bets really small, right, So he bets like a quarter pot, and I was like, okay, you do not have a flush right at this point, it really just looked like he just did not like that king at all. And so I raise because you know, that seems like the appropriate thing to do. And he does not have that many chips left behind, and you can just see him just completely pained, and then just like shakes his head and like puts all his chips in the middle and he turns over pocket queens and he's like, I knew I was be And I was like, well, you know, if you don't say that, right, if you know your beat just fold. He still had a lot of chips behind, but he just couldn't let it go. He had flopped, you know, top set. He knew that he was kind of ahead of me, and he even though the world changed on the turn, he just couldn't acknowledge it and he couldn't walk away. And I've seen that so many times.

All right, So I've been seeing a lot of things that players shouldn't be doing. So I played, let's say, I played two World Series events this past week, and then I played a win event, so the Win eleven hundred event as well. So I've seen a few different player pools. And this is me generalizing from everything that I've been seeing, what are the three most common mistakes? By far? Number one that I have seen is what's known in psychology as the sunk cost fallacy, and what the sunk cost fallacy means is that you make a decision and then when the decision environment changes, when the information changes, when the data change, and your decision no longer makes sense. Instead of walking away, instead of saying, Okay, I made the right decision before it's no longer the right decision, you stay. You stick with it. You put good money after bad, you know, good time after bad. You stay in that decision because you say, well, I've already invested so much. In poker, there's a concept known as pot committed, meaning I've already put so many chips in the middle that I am committed to the pot. And I think that that is actually one of the stupidest concepts in poker. I mean, I just think it's asinine, like so so dumb. I cannot I can't even begin to say. Because decisions are not made in a vacuum. It does not matter how many chips you put in one move ago you know, pre flop or on the flop, as long as you have chips left. If you now know that your beat right, if you now know that the decision environment has changed, fold walk away, keep the chips that you have. It's a huge lesson for life, by the way, being able to walk away, and I still have something left, and I should, you know, I should be able to use that. I think that's a really important life skill. But one of the most important that I've learned from poker is kind of that. And let me tell you a specific hand where I saw this play out that I think is kind of illustrative of this idea. So in this hand, I think we're playing eight handed, and I raise from under the gun, so I'm first to act, and I have pocket kings, so I raise, and then another player three bets me, so he re raises from the button. So that's, you know, very strong position. Obviously he'll always be lost to act. The button is yours, your best position. I don't love, you know, playing huge pots out of positions. So I four bet, which means I then reraise him. At this point, the only hand I lose to is aces, and I'm not particularly you know, you can't see monsters under the bed, so I reraise and he calls and we go to the flop, so it's just the two of us and the flop comes Queen High and it's all hearts. I think it's six or eight Queen, all hearts. I do not have the King of Hearts. I check, and he bets, and I call, even though you know, at this point I could be drawing dead, right, he could have Ace King of Hearts, right, he could have Ace Jack of Hearts. He could already have flopped the nuts. And he beats pretty big, but I can't fault to one bet and then the turn is an off suit king. So at this point I now have top set, and so I check and he bets again, but he bets really small, right, So he bets like a quarter pot, and I was like, okay, you do not have a flush right at this point, it really just looked like he just did not like that king at all. And so I raise because you know, that seems like the appropriate thing to do. And he does not have that many chips left behind, and you can just see him just completely pained, and then just like shakes his head and like puts all his chips in the middle and he turns over pocket queens and he's like, I knew I was be And I was like, well, you know, if you don't say that, right, if you know your beat just fold. He still had a lot of chips behind, but he just couldn't let it go. He had flopped, you know, top set. He knew that he was kind of ahead of me, and he even though the world changed on the turn, he just couldn't acknowledge it and he couldn't walk away. And I've seen that so many times.

I mean, look, in his defense, he could think that you have a flush and he has some outs to draw to a full house. But yeah, poker players stick their chips in almost as a form of self punishment sometimes, you know, I'm a fish. And by the one thing, as you were speaking, Maria, you know, obviously if there's new information, I think also people need to give themselves permission to read things, things right, to say, maybe there's not new information. But I've had time to think about this more, and I just don't think it's plausible that my opponent is bluffing very often. Here. I had time while the dealer was dealing the cards to think about, like what bluff would Maria have in her range? And like in this spot, it's hard on these flushboards with the king coming, you know, making a life choice belatedly, that's a positive life choice is still better than saying it's a sunk cost. I can't make any change at all. Okay, Maria, let's go into your tip or mistake. Yeah, tips for last week. This speaks about mistakes were in the messy real world. Now, what's mistake number two you've been seeing at the time.

I mean, look, in his defense, he could think that you have a flush and he has some outs to draw to a full house. But yeah, poker players stick their chips in almost as a form of self punishment sometimes, you know, I'm a fish. And by the one thing, as you were speaking, Maria, you know, obviously if there's new information, I think also people need to give themselves permission to read things, things right, to say, maybe there's not new information. But I've had time to think about this more, and I just don't think it's plausible that my opponent is bluffing very often. Here. I had time while the dealer was dealing the cards to think about, like what bluff would Maria have in her range? And like in this spot, it's hard on these flushboards with the king coming, you know, making a life choice belatedly, that's a positive life choice is still better than saying it's a sunk cost. I can't make any change at all. Okay, Maria, let's go into your tip or mistake. Yeah, tips for last week. This speaks about mistakes were in the messy real world. Now, what's mistake number two you've been seeing at the time.

Yes, the mistake number two is actually probably one of the most famous biases in psychology. And so it's always so fun to me as a psychologist to see the things that you know that theoretically should be very strong, see them actually in reality play out this way. And that's risk aversion. So this is part of Danny Knnoman and Amos Turiski's famous prospect theory right where losses and gains are looked at differently, and depending on how you frame losses, depending on how you frame gains, people will be more or less risk averse. And so what I have seen is that people have been too risk averse at stages of the tournament where they should be taking risks because they value kind of their tournament life too much and they don't understand how tournament poker works. So, as an example, I saw a hand I was not in this hand where someone raised, you know, someone re raised, and then this person ended up folding Ace King face up, aas King suited, having like thirty big blinds left saying you know it's too early, it's too early for me to flip, and it was just such a bad mistake. Right when I saw that, I was like, what do you mean it's too early to flip? You have thirty big lines. That's not that you know you should be flipping. You have to take those spots. If you're valuing your tournament life, valuing not busting so incredibly highly. That means that either you're playing too high. You know you're in the wrong spot, because that's not the rational decision to make. The flip side of this. At EPT Paris back in February, which was won by Barney Boatman, who's kind of an old school legend, there was a really great televised hand where they were at the final table, the final two tables, and someone ran kind of a big bluff against him, putting him to the test. Right, Barney had to call off all of his chips and it was a really hard call. Barney finally made it, and when his opponent kind of turned over the cards saw what Barney had called with he said, how could you call for your tournament life here? Like, you can't do that? And Barney looks at him and says, it's my tournament life, not my actual life. It's just such a great line because that's how you have to write. It's fine to be too risk averse when it's your actual life. It's when you're playing in a tournament. You have to make those calculated risks, have to take those slips, you have to take those spots, otherwise you ain't ever winning a tournament.

Yes, the mistake number two is actually probably one of the most famous biases in psychology. And so it's always so fun to me as a psychologist to see the things that you know that theoretically should be very strong, see them actually in reality play out this way. And that's risk aversion. So this is part of Danny Knnoman and Amos Turiski's famous prospect theory right where losses and gains are looked at differently, and depending on how you frame losses, depending on how you frame gains, people will be more or less risk averse. And so what I have seen is that people have been too risk averse at stages of the tournament where they should be taking risks because they value kind of their tournament life too much and they don't understand how tournament poker works. So, as an example, I saw a hand I was not in this hand where someone raised, you know, someone re raised, and then this person ended up folding Ace King face up, aas King suited, having like thirty big blinds left saying you know it's too early, it's too early for me to flip, and it was just such a bad mistake. Right when I saw that, I was like, what do you mean it's too early to flip? You have thirty big lines. That's not that you know you should be flipping. You have to take those spots. If you're valuing your tournament life, valuing not busting so incredibly highly. That means that either you're playing too high. You know you're in the wrong spot, because that's not the rational decision to make. The flip side of this. At EPT Paris back in February, which was won by Barney Boatman, who's kind of an old school legend, there was a really great televised hand where they were at the final table, the final two tables, and someone ran kind of a big bluff against him, putting him to the test. Right, Barney had to call off all of his chips and it was a really hard call. Barney finally made it, and when his opponent kind of turned over the cards saw what Barney had called with he said, how could you call for your tournament life here? Like, you can't do that? And Barney looks at him and says, it's my tournament life, not my actual life. It's just such a great line because that's how you have to write. It's fine to be too risk averse when it's your actual life. It's when you're playing in a tournament. You have to make those calculated risks, have to take those slips, you have to take those spots, otherwise you ain't ever winning a tournament.

Ria, I got news for you now that we're into the second week of the World Series of Poker that like that virginal risk aversion bubble has popped a little bit. In the fifteen hundred yesterday, all my chips, or ninety five percent of them are from making hands and extracting value. The bluss were not working. I lost money on my bluff yesterday, and I'm so many people believe it or not actually like to fold to Sometimes people were getting a little bit rambunctious. I think you kind of get into this point in the tournament where maybe you have fired four or five or six entries. People are getting though a little bit friskier, I think, with kind of a lot of these smaller events. And the Mystery Millions is a tournament where you can enter like literally eight times if you want the first event after that. See people who are a little bit on tilt from you know, literally as we're playing, by the way, people are drawing prizes from this bounty pool winning a million bucks where two and fifty thousand bucks, right, and here you are plotting along your fifteen hundred dollars tournament. That was encouraging I think a lot more risk taking. So so this is self corrects a little bit. But I agree in CHERYLD that as a default, as a default, even in the poker world, as default, people are usually too risk averse. For the Barney Boatmen reason that it's just a fucking poker tournament, right, I understand that you make day two, day three, the money can be significant. It's just a fucking poker tournament.

Ria, I got news for you now that we're into the second week of the World Series of Poker that like that virginal risk aversion bubble has popped a little bit. In the fifteen hundred yesterday, all my chips, or ninety five percent of them are from making hands and extracting value. The bluss were not working. I lost money on my bluff yesterday, and I'm so many people believe it or not actually like to fold to Sometimes people were getting a little bit rambunctious. I think you kind of get into this point in the tournament where maybe you have fired four or five or six entries. People are getting though a little bit friskier, I think, with kind of a lot of these smaller events. And the Mystery Millions is a tournament where you can enter like literally eight times if you want the first event after that. See people who are a little bit on tilt from you know, literally as we're playing, by the way, people are drawing prizes from this bounty pool winning a million bucks where two and fifty thousand bucks, right, and here you are plotting along your fifteen hundred dollars tournament. That was encouraging I think a lot more risk taking. So so this is self corrects a little bit. But I agree in CHERYLD that as a default, as a default, even in the poker world, as default, people are usually too risk averse. For the Barney Boatmen reason that it's just a fucking poker tournament, right, I understand that you make day two, day three, the money can be significant. It's just a fucking poker tournament.

That's that's very true.

That's that's very true.

If you're putting your life on your line to enter the tournament, then you've made a bad decision in the first place. So I can't really guide you. But but this is kind of a laboratory where you can repeat the experiment and enter a different tournament, especially the World Series. And so don't be a knit is one of our favorite things to say, and it means a neurotic risk averse, you know, turn in the punch bowl basically, Maria.

If you're putting your life on your line to enter the tournament, then you've made a bad decision in the first place. So I can't really guide you. But but this is kind of a laboratory where you can repeat the experiment and enter a different tournament, especially the World Series. And so don't be a knit is one of our favorite things to say, and it means a neurotic risk averse, you know, turn in the punch bowl basically, Maria.

Absolutely, So that's you know, that's number two. But I'm glad that you're saying that it's been self correcting because that actually goes to mistake number three that I've been seeing, which is people becoming too emotional and making decisions based on how they're feeling and what just happened, as opposed to based on data and based on kind of what they should be using in their logical rational decision making. So they're going on tilt and basically making just really egregious errors. So once again, you know, I think it's always good to have an example. I was playing this was I think it might have even been during the five thousand dollars event. No, it was a five hundred dollars event, so the second event, slightly smaller event. It was a freeze out, which is important, which means people can't read buy this is not the mystery bounty. And I had a gentleman to my left who'd been, you know, playing fairly. Well I didn't know him, but I think he played a lot of poker, and then he got into a spot against someone else where he was you know, on the river and facing a huge bet and he needed to decide whether or not he was going to call, and he just tanked. And it's a pretty turbo structure, right. The levels are thirty minutes long.

Absolutely, So that's you know, that's number two. But I'm glad that you're saying that it's been self correcting because that actually goes to mistake number three that I've been seeing, which is people becoming too emotional and making decisions based on how they're feeling and what just happened, as opposed to based on data and based on kind of what they should be using in their logical rational decision making. So they're going on tilt and basically making just really egregious errors. So once again, you know, I think it's always good to have an example. I was playing this was I think it might have even been during the five thousand dollars event. No, it was a five hundred dollars event, so the second event, slightly smaller event. It was a freeze out, which is important, which means people can't read buy this is not the mystery bounty. And I had a gentleman to my left who'd been, you know, playing fairly. Well I didn't know him, but I think he played a lot of poker, and then he got into a spot against someone else where he was you know, on the river and facing a huge bet and he needed to decide whether or not he was going to call, and he just tanked. And it's a pretty turbo structure, right. The levels are thirty minutes long.

Meaning that you're a chip count dwindles and real or in absolute terms.

Meaning that you're a chip count dwindles and real or in absolute terms.

Yeah, so very quickly, so you need to act quickly. So here's this guy and he's been thinking for two minutes, so I very I think nicely, and the tables agreed, said, you know, I know you're in a tough spot, but just so you know, I'm going to call the clock in one minute, because you know, taking two minutes if you think about it. I said, I was going to call it at three minutes, right, so you're ten percent, which is ten percent of the time. And I gave him that warning and then he just like he you know, puts in the call and it's the wrong call and he loses the pot. And then he turns to me and he says, well, it's only it's only a turbo. If you're used to playing bullshit live events, this is not a turbo structure. I was like, well, empirically it is anyway, very next hand, I'm on the button and he's in the small blind and I raise and he just looks at me, and he goes, well, I'm all in, and he just shoves and rips it, and then the big blind folds and I have a six of spades, which is a good hand, but not a great hand. But given what just happened, I was like, I'm gonna call, so I did. He had Queen five offsuit. Luckily he didn't hit and I knocked him out. Don't be that guy. It does not matter if you just made a bad decision. Do not make another bad decision because of that. If someone calls the clock on you. You know I didn't even call the clock on him, right, Like, just do not be that guy. Make rational decisions. Do not punt with queen five offsuit, even though you still have a ton of chips, just because you're pissed off and you think that you know that someone's picking on you.

Yeah, so very quickly, so you need to act quickly. So here's this guy and he's been thinking for two minutes, so I very I think nicely, and the tables agreed, said, you know, I know you're in a tough spot, but just so you know, I'm going to call the clock in one minute, because you know, taking two minutes if you think about it. I said, I was going to call it at three minutes, right, so you're ten percent, which is ten percent of the time. And I gave him that warning and then he just like he you know, puts in the call and it's the wrong call and he loses the pot. And then he turns to me and he says, well, it's only it's only a turbo. If you're used to playing bullshit live events, this is not a turbo structure. I was like, well, empirically it is anyway, very next hand, I'm on the button and he's in the small blind and I raise and he just looks at me, and he goes, well, I'm all in, and he just shoves and rips it, and then the big blind folds and I have a six of spades, which is a good hand, but not a great hand. But given what just happened, I was like, I'm gonna call, so I did. He had Queen five offsuit. Luckily he didn't hit and I knocked him out. Don't be that guy. It does not matter if you just made a bad decision. Do not make another bad decision because of that. If someone calls the clock on you. You know I didn't even call the clock on him, right, Like, just do not be that guy. Make rational decisions. Do not punt with queen five offsuit, even though you still have a ton of chips, just because you're pissed off and you think that you know that someone's picking on you.

I think the guy thing like not to be too like woke here or anything. The guy thing is important though, because like men with other men don't want to lose face, and that can like manifest itself in different ways. But like, I haven't been quite in that spot as often as people seem to react to you that way, even though I would have been probably more aggressive about just calling the clock and not giving him like a warning. I do think that, like, you know, men who feel like they're embarrassed by women. I mean, this is not like some deep breakthrough here, right, but like you know, men who feel like they're embarrassed by women can kind of go on tilts in different ways, and they might if they're embarrassed by another guy.

I think the guy thing like not to be too like woke here or anything. The guy thing is important though, because like men with other men don't want to lose face, and that can like manifest itself in different ways. But like, I haven't been quite in that spot as often as people seem to react to you that way, even though I would have been probably more aggressive about just calling the clock and not giving him like a warning. I do think that, like, you know, men who feel like they're embarrassed by women. I mean, this is not like some deep breakthrough here, right, but like you know, men who feel like they're embarrassed by women can kind of go on tilts in different ways, and they might if they're embarrassed by another guy.

Yeah, no, I think that's very true. And I actually wrote an entire piece about sexism and poker on my substack this week, and some a guy also going on tilt to a female gave me a ten ten thousand dollars main events seat, so I'm very grateful for that. So everyone, do not make this mistake unless you're a bounty with ten thousand dollars on your head, in which case, you know, please do emotionally tilt and give me your chips. But Nate, I think that that is a you know, great place to wrap it up, and to say again, I trust that you will not make any of these mistakes today. I hope you play well and may the may the cards be with you, because that's you know, that's the one thing that you can't control. So Nay Risky business is still a young show. You know, we're we're a month old, and I have already learned more about basketball than I have learned during my entire life, and here we are doing yet another basketball segment. Last week, I when I told you that I was ready to go to a next game, you informed me that unfortunately they were already out, so you know, so that that wasn't that wasn't great timing, So we'll have to go next season. But you've also informed me, and I didn't know that we're now starting the NBA Finals, which sounds really, really exciting, and I'm gonna I'm gonna get some real excitement going once I finally go to an NBA game. I'm sure you will teach me to love it. But for now, let me ask you who's playing in the finals and why do we care?

Yeah, no, I think that's very true. And I actually wrote an entire piece about sexism and poker on my substack this week, and some a guy also going on tilt to a female gave me a ten ten thousand dollars main events seat, so I'm very grateful for that. So everyone, do not make this mistake unless you're a bounty with ten thousand dollars on your head, in which case, you know, please do emotionally tilt and give me your chips. But Nate, I think that that is a you know, great place to wrap it up, and to say again, I trust that you will not make any of these mistakes today. I hope you play well and may the may the cards be with you, because that's you know, that's the one thing that you can't control. So Nay Risky business is still a young show. You know, we're we're a month old, and I have already learned more about basketball than I have learned during my entire life, and here we are doing yet another basketball segment. Last week, I when I told you that I was ready to go to a next game, you informed me that unfortunately they were already out, so you know, so that that wasn't that wasn't great timing, So we'll have to go next season. But you've also informed me, and I didn't know that we're now starting the NBA Finals, which sounds really, really exciting, and I'm gonna I'm gonna get some real excitement going once I finally go to an NBA game. I'm sure you will teach me to love it. But for now, let me ask you who's playing in the finals and why do we care?

Mario? Are you? Are you anti sports and you want to read The New Yorker? Are you one of those call us at sports ball and things like that. I'm, by the way, your hometown team, the Boston Celtics, is one of the two teams involved in the NBA.

Mario? Are you? Are you anti sports and you want to read The New Yorker? Are you one of those call us at sports ball and things like that. I'm, by the way, your hometown team, the Boston Celtics, is one of the two teams involved in the NBA.

That's exciting.

That's exciting.

I did. The other team is a Dallas Mavericks. Who are I guess I was gonna say younger. They're not that young, but they kind of overachieved expectations this year. You know, I did a kind of preseason preview for my newsletter subscribers at Silver Bulletin. Talked about every team. Although I was very bullish in the Celtics. I was kept on the Dallas Mavericks would even make the playoffs, and here they are in the NBA finals. So what the fuck do I know?

I did. The other team is a Dallas Mavericks. Who are I guess I was gonna say younger. They're not that young, but they kind of overachieved expectations this year. You know, I did a kind of preseason preview for my newsletter subscribers at Silver Bulletin. Talked about every team. Although I was very bullish in the Celtics. I was kept on the Dallas Mavericks would even make the playoffs, and here they are in the NBA finals. So what the fuck do I know?

I suppose so I didn't know who'd be in the finals, and Nate, you don't know who would be in the finals for either for.

I suppose so I didn't know who'd be in the finals, and Nate, you don't know who would be in the finals for either for.

Different reasons, I would say, But at the point is the point is well taken?

Different reasons, I would say, But at the point is the point is well taken?

No, for the record, let the record show I am not anti sport, and I'm very excited about getting excited about sports once i know more about them.

No, for the record, let the record show I am not anti sport, and I'm very excited about getting excited about sports once i know more about them.

Anti sport are you British? They call it like sport singular instead of.

Anti sport are you British? They call it like sport singular instead of.

Playing anti sports sport. I just all right, fine, fine, my fake English accent friend, I am not anti athletics sports teams.

Playing anti sports sport. I just all right, fine, fine, my fake English accent friend, I am not anti athletics sports teams.

Okay, after you're not. You're not helping yourself here, I don't think. Here's what I want to discuss though, and we'll be short with this segment. There is a gap here between kind of what the stats would say and what the betting markets say. So, the Celtics in the regular season went sixty four and eighteen, winning sixty four games is a very very very good record. Dallas, by contrast, went fifty five, zero and thirty two. They were a number five seed. The Celtics were a number one seed. The Celtics are twelve and two so far in the playoffs. They have virtually swept every series. The Celtics have an average victory margin of more than ten point eight points per game or more than ten points per game, which is one of the best in NBA history this year. So if you look at this system like, I'm gonna promote a system called EPM, which is by at the site Dunks and Threes. It's a good, very good basketball analysis site that rates individual players and has team projections. Their projections have the Celtics with an eighty six percent chance. Eighty six percent of the Celtics, who, by the way, are have a home court in Boston's a good home court advantage an eighty six percent chance of winning the finals.

Okay, after you're not. You're not helping yourself here, I don't think. Here's what I want to discuss though, and we'll be short with this segment. There is a gap here between kind of what the stats would say and what the betting markets say. So, the Celtics in the regular season went sixty four and eighteen, winning sixty four games is a very very very good record. Dallas, by contrast, went fifty five, zero and thirty two. They were a number five seed. The Celtics were a number one seed. The Celtics are twelve and two so far in the playoffs. They have virtually swept every series. The Celtics have an average victory margin of more than ten point eight points per game or more than ten points per game, which is one of the best in NBA history this year. So if you look at this system like, I'm gonna promote a system called EPM, which is by at the site Dunks and Threes. It's a good, very good basketball analysis site that rates individual players and has team projections. Their projections have the Celtics with an eighty six percent chance. Eighty six percent of the Celtics, who, by the way, are have a home court in Boston's a good home court advantage an eighty six percent chance of winning the finals.

Now, if I go down there, pretty high chance.

Now, if I go down there, pretty high chance.

It's a pretty high chance. But the NBA is a game where a game of dominant compare, for example, a basketball game to a football game. In the NBA, each team has over one hundred posessions, maybe even one hundred and ten or one hundred and twenty, given how fast paced the game is nowadays. Right in the NFL, a team might have what is it like, you know, twelve or thirteen possessions in a game, so roughly one tenth as much. If you roll a dice one hundred and ten times versus twelve times, then you match the kind of long run statistical distribution much more closely with a larger sample size. So in the NBA, small edges shooting thirty nine percent from three point range instead of thirty six percent. That plays out when you're taking all these shots per game, so that the better team usually wins in the NBA, like almost no other sport, right Michael Jordan's Bulls when he was on the team won six championships. The Warriors won whatever it was three and four years. So again, my favorite basketball stat site, dunksan threes dot com gives Boston an eighty six point four percent chance of winning. If I believe that number, I can go down to the sportsbook here I'm staying at the Cosmo, I guess, or anywhere in Vegas and make what, in theory is a very very profitable bet. That bet implies they only have to win seventy percent of the time. Seven zero eighty six is a lot higher than seventy to a gambler or a poker player. And yet, Maria, I have not I have not made that bet yet, despite having been in Vegas all week?