This week on Risky Business, Nate gives his analysis of what Trump’s guilty verdict may mean for the election, Maria shares the biggest mistakes she’s seen at the World Series of Poker so far, and Nate reveals an interesting ripple in the sports betting ecosystem ahead of the NBA Finals.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver

This week on Risky Business, Nate gives his analysis of what Trump’s guilty verdict may mean for the election, Maria shares the biggest mistakes she’s seen at the World Series of Poker so far, and Nate reveals an interesting ripple in the sports betting ecosystem ahead of the NBA Finals.
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">“The Leap”</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">“Silver Bulletin”</a> from Nate Silver

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.

Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.

Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.

Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Mistakes and Unknowns: Election Polls, Poker Tournaments, and the NBA Finals

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/3c93b644-be07-4ef0-9eeb-b18601610b65/transcript

Nate and Maria discuss Anna Sorokin’s (AKA Anna Delvey) spin on Dancing with the Stars. Then, they debate the merits and limits of voting in your self interest, and Nate explains why Nebraska has his attention on the election map. 

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Nate and Maria discuss Anna Sorokin’s (AKA Anna Delvey) spin on Dancing with the Stars. Then, they debate the merits and limits of voting in your self interest, and Nate explains why Nebraska has his attention on the election map. 
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

Conning with the Stars: Anna Delvey, Voting Rationally, and the Maine Nebraska model

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/317defbb-8738-4301-82b4-b1f6018b7b30/transcript

Kalshi, a company that offers prediction markets, sued the US government in an effort to legalize betting on elections. Nate and Maria discuss the pros and cons of election prediction markets. Plus, Nate gives an election update and Maria learns what to do when there’s no plus-EV move.

Further Reading:

Ready Your Bets: Election gambling is going mainstream in the US from Politico

Election Betting Halted After Appeals Court Agrees to Hit the Breaks from WSJ

Betting On Elections Can Tell Us A Lot. Why Is It Mostly Illegal? from the New Yorker

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Kalshi, a company that offers prediction markets, sued the US government in an effort to legalize betting on elections. Nate and Maria discuss the pros and cons of election prediction markets. Plus, Nate gives an election update and Maria learns what to do when there’s no plus-EV move.
Further Reading:
<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/12/election-gambling-us-00178904">Ready Your Bets: Election gambling is going mainstream in the US</a> from Politico
<a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-09-13-2024/card/election-betting-halted-after-appeals-court-agrees-to-hit-the-brakes-cOqK2B0FT4aOGmYI4LHj?mod=mhp">Election Betting Halted After Appeals Court Agrees to Hit the Breaks</a> from WSJ
<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/betting-on-elections-can-tell-us-a-lot-why-is-it-mostly-illegal">Betting On Elections Can Tell Us A Lot. Why Is It Mostly Illegal?</a> from the New Yorker
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

Should You Be Able to Bet On the Election?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/2113adb2-52d7-411f-980e-b1ef01593b8a/transcript

Nate and Maria discuss the Harris-Trump debate. Then, Nate gives an update on his election model, and Maria shares the outcome of her irrational move at a poker tournament in Barcelona.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

Nate and Maria discuss the Harris-Trump debate. Then, Nate gives an update on his election model, and Maria shares the outcome of her irrational move at a poker tournament in Barcelona.
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
<a href="https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/">The Leap</a> from Maria Konnikova
<a href="https://www.natesilver.net/">Silver Bulletin</a> from Nate Silver

Does Nate Trust His Model? Debates, Prediction Markets and Poker

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/7a0bf544-68bf-4e34-874d-b1e900134647/transcript

Mistakes and Unknowns: Election Polls, Poker Tournaments, and the NBA Finals

In 1 playlist(s)

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Social links

Follow podcast

Recent clips