Our intuitive risk assessments can be way off–we’re too scared of hijackings, and not scared enough of crossing the street. This week, Nate and Maria discuss the real risks of plane travel, and of drinking alcohol. Then, they debate whether the sharp money is on heads or tails in the Super Bowl coin toss, and make a very serious bet about whether the national anthem will move any players or coaches to tears.

Plus, Nate and Maria answer a listener question about the value of betting on underdogs for Pushkin+ subscribers.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver