Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova.

Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova.

And I'm Nate Silver.

And I'm Nate Silver.

So today on the show and it we're going to be talking about a model that you've been working on for a while and you have flipped the switch to the new model. We are going to be entering Kamala mode from Biden mode.

So today on the show and it we're going to be talking about a model that you've been working on for a while and you have flipped the switch to the new model. We are going to be entering Kamala mode from Biden mode.

We will also have probably the last segment on the World Series of Poker that we're going to do for this year.

We will also have probably the last segment on the World Series of Poker that we're going to do for this year.

At least.

At least.

We have main event champion Jonathan Tomayo I with us, who had an impressive run through actually very tough final table, but also generating controversy because his supporters we're seen using a laptop with some poker looking software while he was in the middle of the final.

We have main event champion Jonathan Tomayo I with us, who had an impressive run through actually very tough final table, but also generating controversy because his supporters we're seen using a laptop with some poker looking software while he was in the middle of the final.

So we'll talk to him about all of that.

So we'll talk to him about all of that.

Now, tell me what is going on with your model. So obviously, you know last week you and Matt Glassman talked about the shift to Kamala as the nominee, and now you have. There has been more polling, there have been kind of more inputs and last week you weren't there yet. But we're recording this on Tuesday, and today you actually released the updated model for what the Kamala nomination means. So let's let's talk me through it. Let's get into it.

Now, tell me what is going on with your model. So obviously, you know last week you and Matt Glassman talked about the shift to Kamala as the nominee, and now you have. There has been more polling, there have been kind of more inputs and last week you weren't there yet. But we're recording this on Tuesday, and today you actually released the updated model for what the Kamala nomination means. So let's let's talk me through it. Let's get into it.

Since this is a show for people who like numbers, at least mostly, I'm going to lead with the top line number, which is that Harris has a thirty eight percent chance of winning the electoral college in our forecast, Trump is at sixty one percent, and there's one percent chance of a dead block where no cann It gets two hundred and seventy electoral votes. Trump probably wins those scenarios, by the way, but we can cover that later. So thirty eight percent is quite a bit better than Joe Biden, who was at I think twenty seven or twenty six and a half when we turned the model off, and was declining. And moreover, as we've talked about, I think that probably overestimated his chances by roughly half. Right, his fundraising had dried up, he was not really capable of doing basic campaigning things. Voter enthusiasm was in the tank. Half his party was denouncing him, and so you know, so whether it's from twenty six percent to thirty eight percent or two percent to thirty eight percent, I mean, I think Biden's real chances for maybe ten percent or something, you know, all of a sudden, in poker terms, Democrats caught some really good outs. They have like a nut flush straw or something against Kings where they can we're still.

Since this is a show for people who like numbers, at least mostly, I'm going to lead with the top line number, which is that Harris has a thirty eight percent chance of winning the electoral college in our forecast, Trump is at sixty one percent, and there's one percent chance of a dead block where no cann It gets two hundred and seventy electoral votes. Trump probably wins those scenarios, by the way, but we can cover that later. So thirty eight percent is quite a bit better than Joe Biden, who was at I think twenty seven or twenty six and a half when we turned the model off, and was declining. And moreover, as we've talked about, I think that probably overestimated his chances by roughly half. Right, his fundraising had dried up, he was not really capable of doing basic campaigning things. Voter enthusiasm was in the tank. Half his party was denouncing him, and so you know, so whether it's from twenty six percent to thirty eight percent or two percent to thirty eight percent, I mean, I think Biden's real chances for maybe ten percent or something, you know, all of a sudden, in poker terms, Democrats caught some really good outs. They have like a nut flush straw or something against Kings where they can we're still.

But now we're live, very now, we're live, very very live.

But now we're live, very now, we're live, very very live.

And I should say, you know, I think my assistant Elan and I waited about the minimum time that was responsible to win, for enough polling to come in. The forecast could be a little bit more ballatle up and down than usual because we don't have a lot of swing state polling yet, for example. But in national polls, Harris has drawn the race roughly into a tie with Trump, which is quite a bit better than Biden, who was down four points in national polls at the time he exited. However, as listeners probably know, the popular vote is not what determines elections in the American presidential race. It's the electoral college, and there that's why Harris is an underdog.

And I should say, you know, I think my assistant Elan and I waited about the minimum time that was responsible to win, for enough polling to come in. The forecast could be a little bit more ballatle up and down than usual because we don't have a lot of swing state polling yet, for example. But in national polls, Harris has drawn the race roughly into a tie with Trump, which is quite a bit better than Biden, who was down four points in national polls at the time he exited. However, as listeners probably know, the popular vote is not what determines elections in the American presidential race. It's the electoral college, and there that's why Harris is an underdog.

The most important states.

The most important states.

Meaning Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin. If she were to win those and hold the other more traditionally blue states, and she would get two hundred and seventy electoral votes, which is exactly exactly one more than she needs. Those states are close to being toss ups, very slightly leaning Trump, but you know, certainly in the zone of what a poker player would call it a flip or a race or et cetera. She still has to win all three of those. The math this gets a little complicated because they're correlated. It's not like three independent coin flips. If you win Wisconsin, then Michigan's a fairly similar state, and Pennsylvania to some extent, but but enough to make her an underdog. She also has maybe a route that had disappeared from Joe Biden, which is a southern route. So Kamala Harris already has restored some of Biden's depressed numbers among two important groups, black voters and then younger voters. And Georgia and North Carolina have a lot of black voters. Of course, they also have a lot of young professionals. They have a lot of colleges and universities. So there's states where that combination is important, and she's drawing live in Georgia, for example, which I think the polling had consistently been very.

Meaning Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin. If she were to win those and hold the other more traditionally blue states, and she would get two hundred and seventy electoral votes, which is exactly exactly one more than she needs. Those states are close to being toss ups, very slightly leaning Trump, but you know, certainly in the zone of what a poker player would call it a flip or a race or et cetera. She still has to win all three of those. The math this gets a little complicated because they're correlated. It's not like three independent coin flips. If you win Wisconsin, then Michigan's a fairly similar state, and Pennsylvania to some extent, but but enough to make her an underdog. She also has maybe a route that had disappeared from Joe Biden, which is a southern route. So Kamala Harris already has restored some of Biden's depressed numbers among two important groups, black voters and then younger voters. And Georgia and North Carolina have a lot of black voters. Of course, they also have a lot of young professionals. They have a lot of colleges and universities. So there's states where that combination is important, and she's drawing live in Georgia, for example, which I think the polling had consistently been very.

Bad for Biden.

Bad for Biden.

So she now actually has these multiple paths that Biden kind of had, you know, been foreclosed from Biden.

So she now actually has these multiple paths that Biden kind of had, you know, been foreclosed from Biden.

Now she's not a favorite in neither path.

Now she's not a favorite in neither path.

But look, I think usually if I come out with a forecast end of July and so the Democrat has a thirty eight percent chance of winning, I think people would be like, you suck, Nate Silver, why are.

But look, I think usually if I come out with a forecast end of July and so the Democrat has a thirty eight percent chance of winning, I think people would be like, you suck, Nate Silver, why are.

You such a maga?

You such a maga?

Whatever Republican you said it, I did it. Yeah, compared to where Democrats were before, though, I think they're thrilled if they could take a coin flip, and it's not a coin flip that she's an underdog, but not that much of an underdog, you know, thirty eight sixty two is not so bad.

Whatever Republican you said it, I did it. Yeah, compared to where Democrats were before, though, I think they're thrilled if they could take a coin flip, and it's not a coin flip that she's an underdog, but not that much of an underdog, you know, thirty eight sixty two is not so bad.

And we've only had a few weeks. So I think that it's really important to remember that, you know, this is really really new, and the fact that she's been able to kind of have that much gain that much in such a short period of time, and she hasn't even announced her VP PIC, which we can talk about, but you know, I think that that says something. And her fundraising has been pretty incredible, very quickly. She's been able to raise millions from a lot of different groups. I think that the party has rallied around her more than people expected. She's gotten all the big endorsements, the Obamas have endorsed her, and so I'm very curious to see whether that momentum will sustain itself or whether it actually it is just because right now people are excited, and I'm also very curious to see who the VP pick will be and how that will affect the election. Nate, I know you've written before about the fact that the VP doesn't actually matter that much, whereas much as people would want them to matter in swing states. Do you kind of believe that in this particular case that's going to hold. How important do you think that the vpick VP pick is going to be for the outcome of this election.

And we've only had a few weeks. So I think that it's really important to remember that, you know, this is really really new, and the fact that she's been able to kind of have that much gain that much in such a short period of time, and she hasn't even announced her VP PIC, which we can talk about, but you know, I think that that says something. And her fundraising has been pretty incredible, very quickly. She's been able to raise millions from a lot of different groups. I think that the party has rallied around her more than people expected. She's gotten all the big endorsements, the Obamas have endorsed her, and so I'm very curious to see whether that momentum will sustain itself or whether it actually it is just because right now people are excited, and I'm also very curious to see who the VP pick will be and how that will affect the election. Nate, I know you've written before about the fact that the VP doesn't actually matter that much, whereas much as people would want them to matter in swing states. Do you kind of believe that in this particular case that's going to hold. How important do you think that the vpick VP pick is going to be for the outcome of this election.

I think it might be a little bit more important than usual.

I think it might be a little bit more important than usual.

I think due to the fact that Biden's VP became the presential candidate naturally in the middle of July. I think there's likely to be more focus on it, and Trump of course changes VP. You know, after by some accounts Mike Pence was physically threatened by some of the protesters on January sixth. That was probably inevitable, but no, look, you know, so one question is how much does a VP matter in their home state, And the answer is not very much. It might be worth half a point, although half a point isn't nothing if it's an important state like Pennsylvania or Michigan. Like basically, if if Kamala Harris were to pick Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania in our model, that would increase her chances of winning electoral college by about one percent. So Poker's letters, we like our back door outs. That's kind of what you get. That's just based on the home state effect. There are also questions about like how strong or weak is this candidate. I think some people on the left think that Josh Shapiro is too centrist, which to me is another good reason to pick him. You know, like you said, Maria, Kamala Harris came through this first phase, which was consolidating her party support very effectively. And then if you read not a subjective opinion, if you read the news accounts Politico or the New York Times or whatever. I have done stories about like you know, the first not just twenty four hours, like the first twenty four minutes after Biden announces he's stepping aside, She's already working the phones, already making hundreds of calls to people, very ambitious and look, sometimes when women are ambitious and aggressive, then the society frownds on that. I like ambitious, aggressive women, And I think Kamala Harris showed that she has a real hunger for the nomination and for the presidency by not dawdling and by understanding that like that was a moment to strike.

I think due to the fact that Biden's VP became the presential candidate naturally in the middle of July. I think there's likely to be more focus on it, and Trump of course changes VP. You know, after by some accounts Mike Pence was physically threatened by some of the protesters on January sixth. That was probably inevitable, but no, look, you know, so one question is how much does a VP matter in their home state, And the answer is not very much. It might be worth half a point, although half a point isn't nothing if it's an important state like Pennsylvania or Michigan. Like basically, if if Kamala Harris were to pick Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania in our model, that would increase her chances of winning electoral college by about one percent. So Poker's letters, we like our back door outs. That's kind of what you get. That's just based on the home state effect. There are also questions about like how strong or weak is this candidate. I think some people on the left think that Josh Shapiro is too centrist, which to me is another good reason to pick him. You know, like you said, Maria, Kamala Harris came through this first phase, which was consolidating her party support very effectively. And then if you read not a subjective opinion, if you read the news accounts Politico or the New York Times or whatever. I have done stories about like you know, the first not just twenty four hours, like the first twenty four minutes after Biden announces he's stepping aside, She's already working the phones, already making hundreds of calls to people, very ambitious and look, sometimes when women are ambitious and aggressive, then the society frownds on that. I like ambitious, aggressive women, And I think Kamala Harris showed that she has a real hunger for the nomination and for the presidency by not dawdling and by understanding that like that was a moment to strike.

No one else had stepped.

No one else had stepped.

Up, and you had an opportunity, and it literally had to be within the first hour or something, right to shut off all their avenues from your rivals, maybe supposed rivals.

Up, and you had an opportunity, and it literally had to be within the first hour or something, right to shut off all their avenues from your rivals, maybe supposed rivals.

She did it.

She did it.

Maybe supos tribles would have been better, but probably better for Democrats to have unification around a nominee than a drag out fight. We probably should talk about the reason why she isn't underdog though, right.

Maybe supos tribles would have been better, but probably better for Democrats to have unification around a nominee than a drag out fight. We probably should talk about the reason why she isn't underdog though, right.

Yes, absolutely so. When you're when you're looking at your model, you said that a lot of things really didn't change, right when you when you activate kamalo mode. It's not like you are suddenly changing all of these different inputs. But she's obviously a very different candidate from Biden. Some things are much better, right, There's no longer the age factor that that is no longer an issue at all, but some things might not be as positive for her. The last time we had a female candidate was Hillary Clinton, who also ran against Donald Trump, and that did not go very well.

Yes, absolutely so. When you're when you're looking at your model, you said that a lot of things really didn't change, right when you when you activate kamalo mode. It's not like you are suddenly changing all of these different inputs. But she's obviously a very different candidate from Biden. Some things are much better, right, There's no longer the age factor that that is no longer an issue at all, but some things might not be as positive for her. The last time we had a female candidate was Hillary Clinton, who also ran against Donald Trump, and that did not go very well.

No, and and like I suppose Harris is projected to do in our forecast, Clinton won the popular vote and lost the electoral college. So ironically, we spent a lot of time more me than you, Maria, but spent a lot of time kind of literally yelling at and getting yelled at by Democrats about how Biden's age was a real concern and was dragging down his numbers and maybe even although maybe not the whole party because like Democratic candidates, except that we're doing fine. But look, if you think that Biden's problems were ninety percent about age, then that's the bowl case for Harris. However, what about inflation which has abated but is still a concern that voters have over the past four years. The border, Kamala Harris had some responsibility for the border. The fact checkers hate when you call her the borders are borders are, Like I'm calling her the borders are I mean, that's was my understanding of things right, and like one of the maybe hard more difficult assignments that she got. People are just grumpy in general about incumbent parties. Although incumbent, she's a non incumbent member of the incumbent party, the incumbent vice president.

No, and and like I suppose Harris is projected to do in our forecast, Clinton won the popular vote and lost the electoral college. So ironically, we spent a lot of time more me than you, Maria, but spent a lot of time kind of literally yelling at and getting yelled at by Democrats about how Biden's age was a real concern and was dragging down his numbers and maybe even although maybe not the whole party because like Democratic candidates, except that we're doing fine. But look, if you think that Biden's problems were ninety percent about age, then that's the bowl case for Harris. However, what about inflation which has abated but is still a concern that voters have over the past four years. The border, Kamala Harris had some responsibility for the border. The fact checkers hate when you call her the borders are borders are, Like I'm calling her the borders are I mean, that's was my understanding of things right, and like one of the maybe hard more difficult assignments that she got. People are just grumpy in general about incumbent parties. Although incumbent, she's a non incumbent member of the incumbent party, the incumbent vice president.

I guess you could say, so.

I guess you could say, so.

You know, and then there are issues of race and gender, you know, and.

You know, and then there are issues of race and gender, you know, and.

Which we can't ignore. By the way, those are those are real issues for a lot of people. We can't wish them away because they shouldn't be issues.

Which we can't ignore. By the way, those are those are real issues for a lot of people. We can't wish them away because they shouldn't be issues.

Look what I should say, I think is like, of course the man is talking about this. I don't think there's settled science on tread carefully, What if any penalty there is to candidates for being a woman, for being for being black, or for being Asian American for that matter. I don't think there's Like, even if.

Look what I should say, I think is like, of course the man is talking about this. I don't think there's settled science on tread carefully, What if any penalty there is to candidates for being a woman, for being for being black, or for being Asian American for that matter. I don't think there's Like, even if.

There's no settled science, I think we can say that there is a penalty.

There's no settled science, I think we can say that there is a penalty.

I'm not sure we can say that.

I'm not sure we can say that.

I think we should be careful about because there are lots of popular Democratic senators and governors who are women, and a few.

I think we should be careful about because there are lots of popular Democratic senators and governors who are women, and a few.

Republicans, not many.

Republicans, not many.

You know, we had a black president who was quite popular when was re elected to a second term. We have now a black female Vice president, Kamala Harris, So I don't think that's as clear as as one might think. I mean, you know, the country is not as white as it once was. Some whites are the white dudes for Harris, you know, progressive dudes who think, actually.

You know, we had a black president who was quite popular when was re elected to a second term. We have now a black female Vice president, Kamala Harris, So I don't think that's as clear as as one might think. I mean, you know, the country is not as white as it once was. Some whites are the white dudes for Harris, you know, progressive dudes who think, actually.

You're sure, But I think you can't cherry pick just like a few different offices. You need to look at the major numbers. And if you look at the numbers of politicians, the numbers of senators, the numbers of representatives, the numbers of every single office, you will see that there's like one two and you can't You can't point to that person and say, see, look, just like you can't point to like fortune five hundred CEOs and be like, look, the most successful one is female. Great, the other four hundred ninety nine are male, right, Like, you can't do that night, and you know that you can't do that. What we're talking about is is there a penalty for electability for your gender, for the color of your skin. And even if you can give me a handful of examples that show that someone was able to get there despite those things, that does not mean that there is not a penalty. This is like the research that was completely debunk about people with dyslexia saying dyslexia is actually an asset because look at these amazing dyslexic people who've made it this far. No, they made it this far because they're exceptional and despite their dyslexia, they were able to accomplish all of this. So yeah, when you cherry pick those at the top, they're truly extraordinary. Does that mean that dyslexia is actually an asset? No, absolutely not. And that study was just shown to be like so full of holes. And I think that's kind of the logic that you're going for right now, and I don't think that's right.

You're sure, But I think you can't cherry pick just like a few different offices. You need to look at the major numbers. And if you look at the numbers of politicians, the numbers of senators, the numbers of representatives, the numbers of every single office, you will see that there's like one two and you can't You can't point to that person and say, see, look, just like you can't point to like fortune five hundred CEOs and be like, look, the most successful one is female. Great, the other four hundred ninety nine are male, right, Like, you can't do that night, and you know that you can't do that. What we're talking about is is there a penalty for electability for your gender, for the color of your skin. And even if you can give me a handful of examples that show that someone was able to get there despite those things, that does not mean that there is not a penalty. This is like the research that was completely debunk about people with dyslexia saying dyslexia is actually an asset because look at these amazing dyslexic people who've made it this far. No, they made it this far because they're exceptional and despite their dyslexia, they were able to accomplish all of this. So yeah, when you cherry pick those at the top, they're truly extraordinary. Does that mean that dyslexia is actually an asset? No, absolutely not. And that study was just shown to be like so full of holes. And I think that's kind of the logic that you're going for right now, and I don't think that's right.

It's good to DestinE debate. I'm looking this as a forecaster, right, I'm not some gender PhD theorists about like, I'm not claiming it's not discrimination as women in politics. What I'm claiming is that I wouldn't put some female or black variable in my model to therefore lower Harris's odds, right, because given that she's gotten this.

It's good to DestinE debate. I'm looking this as a forecaster, right, I'm not some gender PhD theorists about like, I'm not claiming it's not discrimination as women in politics. What I'm claiming is that I wouldn't put some female or black variable in my model to therefore lower Harris's odds, right, because given that she's gotten this.

Far, that's as long as we as long as we agree, as long as we agree that you're not arguing that there's not a penalty for being female, that there's not a penalty for being a minority, that you're just not putting them in your model for other reasons that I think we're on. I think we're good.

Far, that's as long as we as long as we agree, as long as we agree that you're not arguing that there's not a penalty for being female, that there's not a penalty for being a minority, that you're just not putting them in your model for other reasons that I think we're on. I think we're good.

I mean, the penalty depends on the context that you're you know, with a more progressive electorate, maybe you d furtherer being a bonus, but the average swing voter in Wisconsin probably a penalty.

I mean, the penalty depends on the context that you're you know, with a more progressive electorate, maybe you d furtherer being a bonus, but the average swing voter in Wisconsin probably a penalty.

For sure, thank you. But even that she's been it this far.

For sure, thank you. But even that she's been it this far.

But this is important from a forecast because like if you have like a six foot one which is short for basketball NBA player versus like a seven foot h NBA player, you wouldn't have You wouldn't assume that the seven foot oh playoff better now, or you shouldn't if you're building a model, because if you've made to the pressure of getting through high school and college basketball and making it to the NBA and making it onto the starting five or whatever, right then you're you're controlling for ale.

But this is important from a forecast because like if you have like a six foot one which is short for basketball NBA player versus like a seven foot h NBA player, you wouldn't have You wouldn't assume that the seven foot oh playoff better now, or you shouldn't if you're building a model, because if you've made to the pressure of getting through high school and college basketball and making it to the NBA and making it onto the starting five or whatever, right then you're you're controlling for ale.

Yeah yeah, Okay, So now we're talking about a totally different thing. And now I actually completely agree with you. So you just started from a more extreme version of this position that I can letely disagree with. But what you're saying right now, I completely I I don't I agree.

Yeah yeah, Okay, So now we're talking about a totally different thing. And now I actually completely agree with you. So you just started from a more extreme version of this position that I can letely disagree with. But what you're saying right now, I completely I I don't I agree.

We actually disagree.

We actually disagree.

I'm like, my goal is to make a forecast, right, And if I thought that this was a that oh, because she's a woman, that makes a material difference, right, instead of thirty eight percent, the real number is twenty five percent or something. If I thought that, I would say that, right.

I'm like, my goal is to make a forecast, right, And if I thought that this was a that oh, because she's a woman, that makes a material difference, right, instead of thirty eight percent, the real number is twenty five percent or something. If I thought that, I would say that, right.

Absolutely, and that that makes sense. I do have a question for you, though, because she is a woman running against Donald Trump and we've seen kind of the way that he uses that leverages, that attacks, that does that matter more than if she were a female running against Pence? And I don't know the answer. I'm just curious what you think.

Absolutely, and that that makes sense. I do have a question for you, though, because she is a woman running against Donald Trump and we've seen kind of the way that he uses that leverages, that attacks, that does that matter more than if she were a female running against Pence? And I don't know the answer. I'm just curious what you think.

Some of the reportings suggest that actually the Trump campaign was not rare prepared for Kamala Hara sticking over, which was extremely stupid because like.

Some of the reportings suggest that actually the Trump campaign was not rare prepared for Kamala Hara sticking over, which was extremely stupid because like.

Prediction market and diagrams. She likes the diagram. I find her funny.

Prediction market and diagrams. She likes the diagram. I find her funny.

She's almost she's almost gen x, by the way, there's never been a gen X president. She Misschaneus by like two months or something like that. But but yeah, look at first they were just kind of like tweeting the same memes and like slightly deep like clips that Democrats thought were funny and charming and they were like, this is our opposition research. But now they're dropping real ads, and you know they're gonna obviously try to portray her as having been too liberal and woke, and there might be a little bit of an element of race in there. But she did run a very progressive twenty twenty primary campaign and tie her to the politics of the Biden administration and their problems and the border and things like that. And those are some recentably effective arguments, I think, more effective than the race stuff, which which they you know, which they are at risk of, like making attacks that they're gonna have to apologize for or not apologize for.

She's almost she's almost gen x, by the way, there's never been a gen X president. She Misschaneus by like two months or something like that. But but yeah, look at first they were just kind of like tweeting the same memes and like slightly deep like clips that Democrats thought were funny and charming and they were like, this is our opposition research. But now they're dropping real ads, and you know they're gonna obviously try to portray her as having been too liberal and woke, and there might be a little bit of an element of race in there. But she did run a very progressive twenty twenty primary campaign and tie her to the politics of the Biden administration and their problems and the border and things like that. And those are some recentably effective arguments, I think, more effective than the race stuff, which which they you know, which they are at risk of, like making attacks that they're gonna have to apologize for or not apologize for.

And look bad not apologize for.

And look bad not apologize for.

Trump has not into debating her.

Trump has not into debating her.

Interestingly enough, Yeah, I'm very curious to see whether that will change, whether there will be a debate. I'm guessing he's gonna So if I were to bet money on this, I would say no, I'm guessing he's going to do everything to weasel his way out of debating Kamala.

Interestingly enough, Yeah, I'm very curious to see whether that will change, whether there will be a debate. I'm guessing he's gonna So if I were to bet money on this, I would say no, I'm guessing he's going to do everything to weasel his way out of debating Kamala.

Well, you should go on polymarket then, where I am a paid advisor, Because Trump has an eighty five percent chance of debating Kamala at least once, according to prediction markets.

Well, you should go on polymarket then, where I am a paid advisor, Because Trump has an eighty five percent chance of debating Kamala at least once, according to prediction markets.

Interesting. So my psychology of Trump points a different points in a different direction.

Interesting. So my psychology of Trump points a different points in a different direction.

Trump has had moments where he's been strategically well behaved. I mean, certainly, in the first debate, I thought he showed a lot of restraint for not pummeling Joe Biden harder and letting Joe Biden kind of punch himself to death. I mean, I thought that that showed some degree of intelligence. However, he has made some missteps.

Trump has had moments where he's been strategically well behaved. I mean, certainly, in the first debate, I thought he showed a lot of restraint for not pummeling Joe Biden harder and letting Joe Biden kind of punch himself to death. I mean, I thought that that showed some degree of intelligence. However, he has made some missteps.

Two that come to mind recently. What does I think we.

Two that come to mind recently. What does I think we.

Please talk about that you're never going to have to vote again statement? I know that's not where the segment is about, but it's very very it's a little bit terrifying, especially since he refused to apologize or walk it back.

Please talk about that you're never going to have to vote again statement? I know that's not where the segment is about, but it's very very it's a little bit terrifying, especially since he refused to apologize or walk it back.

I think he's been taking out of context. I will can see that it's somewhat ambiguous, but he's been talking to a group of like Christians for an hour or something, and Trump tends to ramble on and then he says, vote for me this time and you won't ever have to vote again, which I take to mean in that context and the context of other statements Trump has made that like some combination of a I don't fucking care what happens because I won't be on the ballot anymore, and be it won't matter because I'll make the country so good that like it's all going to be you know, honey and rainbows and and sparkly ponies and everything else. Right, that was a context, So.

I think he's been taking out of context. I will can see that it's somewhat ambiguous, but he's been talking to a group of like Christians for an hour or something, and Trump tends to ramble on and then he says, vote for me this time and you won't ever have to vote again, which I take to mean in that context and the context of other statements Trump has made that like some combination of a I don't fucking care what happens because I won't be on the ballot anymore, and be it won't matter because I'll make the country so good that like it's all going to be you know, honey and rainbows and and sparkly ponies and everything else. Right, that was a context, So.

Let's agree that it's let's agree that it's ambiguous.

Let's agree that it's let's agree that it's ambiguous.

I think the context is ambiguous by the way Democrats don't get to get the benefit of the doubt on this stuff. And the reason why is that, Like, so jd Vance, I'm going to talk about in a moment, who I think has proved to be a problematic running mate. There was a Twitter joke, a meme that someone on kind of weird left Twitter made about how jd Vance I'm not sure how to put this.

I think the context is ambiguous by the way Democrats don't get to get the benefit of the doubt on this stuff. And the reason why is that, Like, so jd Vance, I'm going to talk about in a moment, who I think has proved to be a problematic running mate. There was a Twitter joke, a meme that someone on kind of weird left Twitter made about how jd Vance I'm not sure how to put this.

Are we going to talk about the couch?

Are we going to talk about the couch?

Yeah? I know what are we talking about? It was about you fake.

Yeah? I know what are we talking about? It was about you fake.

It was about a fake meme in which jd Vance wrote about like fucking a couch.

It was about a fake meme in which jd Vance wrote about like fucking a couch.

Basically, yes, absolutely, and we should absolutely talk about this. This was he said, you know page you know one seventy nine to one eighty of Hillbilly Elogy and this was a joke obviously, but then a lot of people went with it, and for multiple days, my entire Twitter feed was, you know, different different takes on this joke, which I know some some would say that, Maria, you're on a podcast, you should not be saying this, But I found hilarious.

Basically, yes, absolutely, and we should absolutely talk about this. This was he said, you know page you know one seventy nine to one eighty of Hillbilly Elogy and this was a joke obviously, but then a lot of people went with it, and for multiple days, my entire Twitter feed was, you know, different different takes on this joke, which I know some some would say that, Maria, you're on a podcast, you should not be saying this, But I found hilarious.

I thought it was a I thought maybe it started out hilarious, but like, it's misinformation, it's and so like.

I thought it was a I thought maybe it started out hilarious, but like, it's misinformation, it's and so like.

And that's important because there's misinformation on both sides. There's currently you know that is pretty clear as misinformation, but there's altered audio of Kamala Harris.

And that's important because there's misinformation on both sides. There's currently you know that is pretty clear as misinformation, but there's altered audio of Kamala Harris.

You know, there is misinformation where Kamal Harris is saying things that she she didn't say, never said. There's misinformation related to the assassination attempt against Trump. I mean, there are Democrats that I thought were relatively grounded in reality that that thinks somehow this is all set up or that he wasn't liability with some reflection from a teleprompter or something.

You know, there is misinformation where Kamal Harris is saying things that she she didn't say, never said. There's misinformation related to the assassination attempt against Trump. I mean, there are Democrats that I thought were relatively grounded in reality that that thinks somehow this is all set up or that he wasn't liability with some reflection from a teleprompter or something.

And you and I talked about this a few weeks back about the conspiracy theories around this, that they're coming from the left. So absolutely, I think both sides are too blame for this. Some misinformation is much more damaging than others off Elon Musk's. If Elon Musk is retweeting or tweeting fake video, fake audio, that's a huge problem, much more so than some random person making up a quote from Hillbilly Elegy that some clowd gets picked up. But he was making a joke, right, he didn't actually doctor or anything or do anything.

And you and I talked about this a few weeks back about the conspiracy theories around this, that they're coming from the left. So absolutely, I think both sides are too blame for this. Some misinformation is much more damaging than others off Elon Musk's. If Elon Musk is retweeting or tweeting fake video, fake audio, that's a huge problem, much more so than some random person making up a quote from Hillbilly Elegy that some clowd gets picked up. But he was making a joke, right, he didn't actually doctor or anything or do anything.

I'm detecting with a partisanship here.

I'm detecting with a partisanship here.

No, no, no, no, I think that I think that actually deep faking and altering things, altering audio, altering video, I think that that's actually an incredibly serious threat. If the Democrats did it, I think it would be incredibly serious, not a laughing matter like this is. This is serious shit and should be taken very very seriously.

No, no, no, no, I think that I think that actually deep faking and altering things, altering audio, altering video, I think that that's actually an incredibly serious threat. If the Democrats did it, I think it would be incredibly serious, not a laughing matter like this is. This is serious shit and should be taken very very seriously.

I'm just saying, I mean, it should be a whole other episode, right, I YEA. Events of recent days I think have taken the lid off a certain type of left leaning misinformation, and I no longer believe that Democrats should get the benefit of the doubt.

I'm just saying, I mean, it should be a whole other episode, right, I YEA. Events of recent days I think have taken the lid off a certain type of left leaning misinformation, and I no longer believe that Democrats should get the benefit of the doubt.

Right.

Right.

When I watched that Trump clip, I think it's meant to say, like, I don't fucking care what happens after I get elected. Think it's going to be so good and I'll be retired and off the ballot. And Trump has a lot of weird stuff off the cuff, and I you know, I don't think he was trying to darkly shout out to like a hostile takeover of the American government after he's elected.

When I watched that Trump clip, I think it's meant to say, like, I don't fucking care what happens after I get elected. Think it's going to be so good and I'll be retired and off the ballot. And Trump has a lot of weird stuff off the cuff, and I you know, I don't think he was trying to darkly shout out to like a hostile takeover of the American government after he's elected.

I mean, there's tail risks here for sure.

I mean, there's tail risks here for sure.

If that's the case. If that's the case, I think that he should have walked it back. When he was asked about it specifically and he refused, he was like, I said what I said, right, So I think that that is actually he could be like I was taken out of context. I don't mean you'll never.

If that's the case. If that's the case, I think that he should have walked it back. When he was asked about it specifically and he refused, he was like, I said what I said, right, So I think that that is actually he could be like I was taken out of context. I don't mean you'll never.

Have to again.

Have to again.

You know, I'm someone who thinks you don't. I mean, I don't think the accusations.

You know, I'm someone who thinks you don't. I mean, I don't think the accusations.

When you're when you're a presidential candidate and there's audio of you saying you'll never have to vote again, even if it's taken, you know, slightly out of context, that is I think that that's a statement that you should have said. Yeah, I've praised it poorly. I meant I don't give a fuck what happens, because I'll be retired and and happy. You know, it's easy enough to say that, but you shouldn't. You shouldn't say something that's deeply that's deeply problematic when it comes to anything, especially which is about it.

When you're when you're a presidential candidate and there's audio of you saying you'll never have to vote again, even if it's taken, you know, slightly out of context, that is I think that that's a statement that you should have said. Yeah, I've praised it poorly. I meant I don't give a fuck what happens, because I'll be retired and and happy. You know, it's easy enough to say that, but you shouldn't. You shouldn't say something that's deeply that's deeply problematic when it comes to anything, especially which is about it.

Came out wrong, right, but there, I mean, there are exactly.

Came out wrong, right, but there, I mean, there are exactly.

That's all I meant.

That's all I meant.

I don't say, like apologize for it, but just like say yeah, yeah, I was taken out of context. That's not what I meant at all. End of story.

I don't say, like apologize for it, but just like say yeah, yeah, I was taken out of context. That's not what I meant at all. End of story.

I halfway agree.

I halfway agree.

I think when people are acting in bad faith, right, because there are things that like have been taken in bad faith. Look, politics is blood sport and it's kind of like the Pokerson we're gonna have later. You know, if the rules are ambiguous about what's allowed and what isn't, then people are gonna are gonna exploit those norms and rules. And Republicans I think, have been more responsible for Democrats for fraying norms, and Trump in particular, right, So now he's benefiting from these these frayed norms.

I think when people are acting in bad faith, right, because there are things that like have been taken in bad faith. Look, politics is blood sport and it's kind of like the Pokerson we're gonna have later. You know, if the rules are ambiguous about what's allowed and what isn't, then people are gonna are gonna exploit those norms and rules. And Republicans I think, have been more responsible for Democrats for fraying norms, and Trump in particular, right, So now he's benefiting from these these frayed norms.

And I think that what we're seeing on the Democratic side is also a result of the fraid norms that have kind of that have resulted from us. Right, there's spillover effect.

And I think that what we're seeing on the Democratic side is also a result of the fraid norms that have kind of that have resulted from us. Right, there's spillover effect.

There's spill of effect, and people in politics are kind of crazy. I mean, let's let's campaign of like calling. I mean, I do think J. D. Vance is kind of a weird dude. He's an unusual guy, very online the way that you know, young people, including young conservative men, talk to one another, right, you might have coded speech. I don't mean any like deeply dark way by that. I just mean that, like you know, you're having a conversations, like not a mainstream conversation. And he said a bunch of things that I think will come across badly to the average voter, just like I think some of the Harris stuff around, like white dudes for Harras might seem kind of funny the first time, and then it's like these are racial fani groups, Like what are we doing here? If you're Hispanic? Are you not allowed in this call or something? But like so I think both sites have to like get out of their bubble. And Vance, as it picked, it's very much in the bubble. And there was a moment when it felt like Trump could just say pick Glenn Youngkin, who is seen as relatively more moderate and as in a state that could plausibly against Biden, whose polls were in the tank. Pausibly have been turned into a swing state, right.

There's spill of effect, and people in politics are kind of crazy. I mean, let's let's campaign of like calling. I mean, I do think J. D. Vance is kind of a weird dude. He's an unusual guy, very online the way that you know, young people, including young conservative men, talk to one another, right, you might have coded speech. I don't mean any like deeply dark way by that. I just mean that, like you know, you're having a conversations, like not a mainstream conversation. And he said a bunch of things that I think will come across badly to the average voter, just like I think some of the Harris stuff around, like white dudes for Harras might seem kind of funny the first time, and then it's like these are racial fani groups, Like what are we doing here? If you're Hispanic? Are you not allowed in this call or something? But like so I think both sites have to like get out of their bubble. And Vance, as it picked, it's very much in the bubble. And there was a moment when it felt like Trump could just say pick Glenn Youngkin, who is seen as relatively more moderate and as in a state that could plausibly against Biden, whose polls were in the tank. Pausibly have been turned into a swing state, right.

And then the.

And then the.

First half hour of that speech of the RNC speech, where Trump was kind of somberly addressing the assassination attempt, right like, if they just ended the speech there right like, that would have been a very effective speech. Instead, he kind of rambles on for an hour. So all of a sudden, after having their head up their ass the whole campaign about Biden's age and the poli and stuff like that, all of a sudden, it seems like Democrats are the party that cares more about winning. And you've seen that reflected. I mean, the shift in the Silver bulletin models is reflected also in prediction markets when Trump has gone from seventy to fifty eight percent. Right, still a favorite, but those are odds that I think Democrats can look at and not feel so bad about.

First half hour of that speech of the RNC speech, where Trump was kind of somberly addressing the assassination attempt, right like, if they just ended the speech there right like, that would have been a very effective speech. Instead, he kind of rambles on for an hour. So all of a sudden, after having their head up their ass the whole campaign about Biden's age and the poli and stuff like that, all of a sudden, it seems like Democrats are the party that cares more about winning. And you've seen that reflected. I mean, the shift in the Silver bulletin models is reflected also in prediction markets when Trump has gone from seventy to fifty eight percent. Right, still a favorite, but those are odds that I think Democrats can look at and not feel so bad about.

Yeah, I think that's a that's a great stopping point. And I think that it's good to end this segment on an optimistic note because there are obviously a lot of a lot of issues and a lot of things that will be coming back to that are problematic. But I think that I like, for once ending a politics segment on a more optimistic note.

Yeah, I think that's a that's a great stopping point. And I think that it's good to end this segment on an optimistic note because there are obviously a lot of a lot of issues and a lot of things that will be coming back to that are problematic. But I think that I like, for once ending a politics segment on a more optimistic note.

We're a christmastic note. If for one of our trump.

We're a christmastic note. If for one of our trump.

Listeners, this is true, this is true. We'll be back after this with some World series of poker.

Listeners, this is true, this is true. We'll be back after this with some World series of poker.

Nate.

Nate.

We're now a few weeks out of the world series. You and I have both, you know, been able to take a deep breath and a deep poker afy. That's a that's a proper verb, right, deepoker if I yeah, for a little while. But now let's let's actually go back to the w S O P which was the largest main event in history, and it was won by Jonathan Tomyo, who we'll be having on the show a little bit later. And you know, the wind is obviously incredibly impressive, but it has come with a little bit of controversy, which was that during the final table you kind of have a rail right, lots of people following along.

We're now a few weeks out of the world series. You and I have both, you know, been able to take a deep breath and a deep poker afy. That's a that's a proper verb, right, deepoker if I yeah, for a little while. But now let's let's actually go back to the w S O P which was the largest main event in history, and it was won by Jonathan Tomyo, who we'll be having on the show a little bit later. And you know, the wind is obviously incredibly impressive, but it has come with a little bit of controversy, which was that during the final table you kind of have a rail right, lots of people following along.

And literally a cheering section.

And literally a cheering section.

Yeah, exactly, literally a cheering section. I mean, it's it's full full out support. But on tomorrow's rail you had the cheerly, but you also had two players Joe mccannon, who is one of his closest friends, his roommate for many years. During the summers former main event Champ and Dominic Nietzsche, who is one of the kind of biggest gto game theory optimal thinkers if German poker, who has created a solver called dto down Theory Optimal and dom had brought a laptop, and so there was controversy about what was on the laptop. Was he running solvers? Was there any sort of assistance? Was this against the rules? Basically the optics did not look good.

Yeah, exactly, literally a cheering section. I mean, it's it's full full out support. But on tomorrow's rail you had the cheerly, but you also had two players Joe mccannon, who is one of his closest friends, his roommate for many years. During the summers former main event Champ and Dominic Nietzsche, who is one of the kind of biggest gto game theory optimal thinkers if German poker, who has created a solver called dto down Theory Optimal and dom had brought a laptop, and so there was controversy about what was on the laptop. Was he running solvers? Was there any sort of assistance? Was this against the rules? Basically the optics did not look good.

Yeah, here is I mean, we just, for full disclosure to the audience, we have taped our segment with Jonathan, so we know he's going to say, we shall want to be transparent.

Yeah, here is I mean, we just, for full disclosure to the audience, we have taped our segment with Jonathan, so we know he's going to say, we shall want to be transparent.

It sets up better this way. But I mean, in.

It sets up better this way. But I mean, in.

Terms of what the rules say, if you actually are really interested in the subject. Doug Polk has a pretty good YouTube clip. This actually goes through the rules. Yeah, short version in twenty twenty three, they were rules in the World Series of Poker, very long rule PDF that says you can't use any type of assistance or software tools, et cetera. For some reason, that did not appear in the twenty twenty four version of the World Series of Poker rules. However, most tournaments, someone would come on the loudspeaker and say you are not allowed to use solvers anywhere in the tournament area. I'm not sure what the terment area is. Basically, it's like, you know, the adjacent the tables and the adjacent areas. I don't know, but my understanding was to be very careful about that. So when I was in the tournament area, I didn't even want to look at like simple things like two dimes. Dot Net is a simple application that's been around for twenty years, where could say I had pocket queens, my opponent had ace King of diamonds.

Terms of what the rules say, if you actually are really interested in the subject. Doug Polk has a pretty good YouTube clip. This actually goes through the rules. Yeah, short version in twenty twenty three, they were rules in the World Series of Poker, very long rule PDF that says you can't use any type of assistance or software tools, et cetera. For some reason, that did not appear in the twenty twenty four version of the World Series of Poker rules. However, most tournaments, someone would come on the loudspeaker and say you are not allowed to use solvers anywhere in the tournament area. I'm not sure what the terment area is. Basically, it's like, you know, the adjacent the tables and the adjacent areas. I don't know, but my understanding was to be very careful about that. So when I was in the tournament area, I didn't even want to look at like simple things like two dimes. Dot Net is a simple application that's been around for twenty years, where could say I had pocket queens, my opponent had ace King of diamonds.

What were the odds? Right?

What were the odds? Right?

Even something like that, I didn't want to run outside the tournament area. Now, if I played a hand, I'm like, did I just punt there? Make a bad play? Then I might go outside the tournament area, sure, and while getting your coffee or whatever, and then bring the phone up. But even then I would still be worried about, like closing that window in the phone. So I understood this to be a rule that was taken seriously. However, clearly some players didn't. I mean I had a hand early in the World Series where a player in let me think the hijack. This is in late position raises. The first player pulls out his phone and just kind of seems now totally disengage from like the poker game in front of him. It turns out because the other player, who was actually still involved in his hand and has a live hand, he's texting his friend I have hand X and it was called.

Even something like that, I didn't want to run outside the tournament area. Now, if I played a hand, I'm like, did I just punt there? Make a bad play? Then I might go outside the tournament area, sure, and while getting your coffee or whatever, and then bring the phone up. But even then I would still be worried about, like closing that window in the phone. So I understood this to be a rule that was taken seriously. However, clearly some players didn't. I mean I had a hand early in the World Series where a player in let me think the hijack. This is in late position raises. The first player pulls out his phone and just kind of seems now totally disengage from like the poker game in front of him. It turns out because the other player, who was actually still involved in his hand and has a live hand, he's texting his friend I have hand X and it was called.

And raised, whichould I do? Lol?

And raised, whichould I do? Lol?

Right in the middle of the hand. He eventually folds and the other player folds too.

Right in the middle of the hand. He eventually folds and the other player folds too.

But like, by the way, that has been.

But like, by the way, that has been.

A rule forever, one player per hand, right, Like, what that guy was doing is just illegal, and no phones during during a live hand has been a rule forever. So what that guy did is just like breaking the rules on every single front. He should have been disqualified. Please continue, Yeah, I know.

A rule forever, one player per hand, right, Like, what that guy was doing is just illegal, and no phones during during a live hand has been a rule forever. So what that guy did is just like breaking the rules on every single front. He should have been disqualified. Please continue, Yeah, I know.

So, And so they fall.

So, And so they fall.

I get the outcome I want, right, but I called the floor over and and I'm like, we have multiple witnesses of this player using a phone in a live hand about the live hand to seek strategy advice, and they didn't really and they kind of have this like, oh, what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas attitude where they try to like, I don't know, it's as like regis as I've ever seen, and you have multiple witnesses and so like to me, first of all, the phone in a live hand thing, I would have like pretty strict, absolutely right, and having that rule be strictly in I mean, they have long been accusations of favoritism at the World Chairs of Poker. Certain people feel helm with what not getting away with more in terms of abusive dealers.

I get the outcome I want, right, but I called the floor over and and I'm like, we have multiple witnesses of this player using a phone in a live hand about the live hand to seek strategy advice, and they didn't really and they kind of have this like, oh, what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas attitude where they try to like, I don't know, it's as like regis as I've ever seen, and you have multiple witnesses and so like to me, first of all, the phone in a live hand thing, I would have like pretty strict, absolutely right, and having that rule be strictly in I mean, they have long been accusations of favoritism at the World Chairs of Poker. Certain people feel helm with what not getting away with more in terms of abusive dealers.

But but yeah, oh, absolutely, you need to consistently enforce the rules, and you need to enforce them otherwise they're not rules. And the fact that the WSP is so damn inconsistent is just absolutely not acceptable. And you cannot blame the players though for that, like you know, you have to blame the fact that their rules are inconsistent and in the use of real time assistants, et cetera. What is true is that the rule was also ridiculously vague, right, part of it was just announced and never in the rule book, And they said that the enforcement would be at the sole discretion of the floor staff, which is once again totally bonkers. If you really want to solve this problem, you have to spell out what you can't do, and then you have to say exactly what the penalties will be.

But but yeah, oh, absolutely, you need to consistently enforce the rules, and you need to enforce them otherwise they're not rules. And the fact that the WSP is so damn inconsistent is just absolutely not acceptable. And you cannot blame the players though for that, like you know, you have to blame the fact that their rules are inconsistent and in the use of real time assistants, et cetera. What is true is that the rule was also ridiculously vague, right, part of it was just announced and never in the rule book, And they said that the enforcement would be at the sole discretion of the floor staff, which is once again totally bonkers. If you really want to solve this problem, you have to spell out what you can't do, and then you have to say exactly what the penalties will be.

Yeah, because poker players of all people are gonna solve for the equilibrium, right and they if they know that, if there is a history of these rules being enforced as slaps on the wrist at most and not at all at least, then they're gonna cheat, and they're gonna or not cheat, but they're gonna, you know, color within and maybe slightly outside of the lines. Now, look, when you hear Jonathan, he'll say that whatever he was hearing on the rail wasn't that helpful in real time, which I actually believe.

Yeah, because poker players of all people are gonna solve for the equilibrium, right and they if they know that, if there is a history of these rules being enforced as slaps on the wrist at most and not at all at least, then they're gonna cheat, and they're gonna or not cheat, but they're gonna, you know, color within and maybe slightly outside of the lines. Now, look, when you hear Jonathan, he'll say that whatever he was hearing on the rail wasn't that helpful in real time, which I actually believe.

I believe that as well. It's really hard. By the way I have been heads up, I have both won and lost in that situation. I did not get assistance either time. But when I have tried to, like people have sent me hands when I've been on televised tables because and then during breaks you review those hands, and sometimes it is helpful, and sometimes it just kills you because your brain goes into overload and you're just thinking, oh shit, you know I made this mistake. You get two in your head and it really can fuck with you. So I don't know, you know, I think it goes both ways.

I believe that as well. It's really hard. By the way I have been heads up, I have both won and lost in that situation. I did not get assistance either time. But when I have tried to, like people have sent me hands when I've been on televised tables because and then during breaks you review those hands, and sometimes it is helpful, and sometimes it just kills you because your brain goes into overload and you're just thinking, oh shit, you know I made this mistake. You get two in your head and it really can fuck with you. So I don't know, you know, I think it goes both ways.

Yeah, if I made a bad fold an hour ago. I'm not sure that it's helping me whatsoever to say, oh, actually, actually he had a gut shot.

Yeah, if I made a bad fold an hour ago. I'm not sure that it's helping me whatsoever to say, oh, actually, actually he had a gut shot.

He was bluffing there with.

He was bluffing there with.

That said, I mean, I look, the World Series gets a lot of mileage out of its brand, and we like the brand too. We've talked about the World Series half the segments we've done on the show so far. But this is a case where they're shooting themselves in the foot by not thinking carefully through like brand management. I mean, I assume they'll say no laptops on the rail, which doesn't I mean, should also be no phones on the rail or no phones?

That said, I mean, I look, the World Series gets a lot of mileage out of its brand, and we like the brand too. We've talked about the World Series half the segments we've done on the show so far. But this is a case where they're shooting themselves in the foot by not thinking carefully through like brand management. I mean, I assume they'll say no laptops on the rail, which doesn't I mean, should also be no phones on the rail or no phones?

Yeah, I mean, if it were up to me, right, if I were doing the rules of the World Series, I would do, first of all, no electronics at televised or streamed tables, and whenever I play in streamed games. By the way, that's already the case. We give up our phones. They're put away on breaks, you can get them, right, So I'm fine with that. Sure, I like listening to music sometimes, but like that's totally cool. So at the table itself, zero electronics when it's a streamed table, when it's a final table, not just the main event, at the main event. No electronics at the rail. You can leave the rail get electronics, but I think that the most important thing is no electronics at the rail or no contact with the rail other than like high five, right, But no strategy advice, no electronic kind of back and forth until you're.

Yeah, I mean, if it were up to me, right, if I were doing the rules of the World Series, I would do, first of all, no electronics at televised or streamed tables, and whenever I play in streamed games. By the way, that's already the case. We give up our phones. They're put away on breaks, you can get them, right, So I'm fine with that. Sure, I like listening to music sometimes, but like that's totally cool. So at the table itself, zero electronics when it's a streamed table, when it's a final table, not just the main event, at the main event. No electronics at the rail. You can leave the rail get electronics, but I think that the most important thing is no electronics at the rail or no contact with the rail other than like high five, right, But no strategy advice, no electronic kind of back and forth until you're.

On a break.

On a break.

But if I were the ones doing the rules, that's what I would do, and for next year, I would also have just explicit rules. No solvers when you are inside the tournament area in the hallways, just like no solvers if anyone sees you on the phone with solvers, as you said, Nate, like you were even like hesitant to open things on a break. And I think that that is, you know, absolutely the way to go, especially like if you're at the table, like if you're at a you know, I don't think there should be a three strike policy. I think strike one, you know, you get a major penalty, not one round. I would give more round strike to disqualification, and strike three. After you're disqualified, you're disqualified from the whole fucking series. You're out.

But if I were the ones doing the rules, that's what I would do, and for next year, I would also have just explicit rules. No solvers when you are inside the tournament area in the hallways, just like no solvers if anyone sees you on the phone with solvers, as you said, Nate, like you were even like hesitant to open things on a break. And I think that that is, you know, absolutely the way to go, especially like if you're at the table, like if you're at a you know, I don't think there should be a three strike policy. I think strike one, you know, you get a major penalty, not one round. I would give more round strike to disqualification, and strike three. After you're disqualified, you're disqualified from the whole fucking series. You're out.

Yeah, come back next year, right exactly.

Yeah, come back next year, right exactly.

Okay, Well, our interview with Jonathan will air next So we're going to welcome him to the show.

Okay, Well, our interview with Jonathan will air next So we're going to welcome him to the show.

So we're really excited to have Jonathan to mya on the winner of the twenty twenty four main event, which is the largest WSP main event in history. So Jonathan, thank you. First of all, congratulations, thank you, and thanks for having me. I know, I know that we're both very excited.

So we're really excited to have Jonathan to mya on the winner of the twenty twenty four main event, which is the largest WSP main event in history. So Jonathan, thank you. First of all, congratulations, thank you, and thanks for having me. I know, I know that we're both very excited.

Oh I'm really excited. And it hasn't sunk in yet. It's partially sunk in because the money is in my bank account, so that part is sunk in the rest of it.

Oh I'm really excited. And it hasn't sunk in yet. It's partially sunk in because the money is in my bank account, so that part is sunk in the rest of it.

Penny, are you afraid you're gonna wake up one morning and like it was just a dream or it was a typo or something in your ATM receipt.

Penny, are you afraid you're gonna wake up one morning and like it was just a dream or it was a typo or something in your ATM receipt.

I thought that when I really watched it, somebody I'm getting punched in the face and then the dream's over.

I thought that when I really watched it, somebody I'm getting punched in the face and then the dream's over.

I mean, what kind of mentality did you go into the main event with this year? Or it's just like it's a tournament. I play a lot of tournaments. Did you Did you have anything specially you did to prep this year?

I mean, what kind of mentality did you go into the main event with this year? Or it's just like it's a tournament. I play a lot of tournaments. Did you Did you have anything specially you did to prep this year?

Nothing special? The prep beforehand, because once you get there in the summer for the series, what you got, what you got. I went in there saying that you're eventually going to bust the main in some way and just deal with it, because I see a lot of people getting super depressed. Day one bus, day two bus, I see them drinking. Everyone does their own thing to keep their sanity. It's basically keeping your sanity. You see. There were few people, even they're in the main. A couple of bad things happen and then they lost their minds, and that can get expensive. The latter it gets, the letter it gets when you lose your mind, the more expensive it is. Because okay, it starts as a ten K, so they take what is it's eight hundred seven hundred dous, So you're playing a ninety three hundred and on day two you're basically playing like a fifteen K. When you get to the final table, you're basically playing what is at that point in a two and a half million dollar buying sit and go.

Nothing special? The prep beforehand, because once you get there in the summer for the series, what you got, what you got. I went in there saying that you're eventually going to bust the main in some way and just deal with it, because I see a lot of people getting super depressed. Day one bus, day two bus, I see them drinking. Everyone does their own thing to keep their sanity. It's basically keeping your sanity. You see. There were few people, even they're in the main. A couple of bad things happen and then they lost their minds, and that can get expensive. The latter it gets, the letter it gets when you lose your mind, the more expensive it is. Because okay, it starts as a ten K, so they take what is it's eight hundred seven hundred dous, So you're playing a ninety three hundred and on day two you're basically playing like a fifteen K. When you get to the final table, you're basically playing what is at that point in a two and a half million dollar buying sit and go.

That's looking at it. I've actually never heard someone describe it in quite those terms. So of course, you know, we're we're interested. You know, obviously it's absolutely incredible that you won. And how does it feel to have kind of a controversy attached to it with all of the for people who don't know there's some controversy that Dom was on the rail with a laptop during the final table, and why don't yeah, why don't we just get your take on it.

That's looking at it. I've actually never heard someone describe it in quite those terms. So of course, you know, we're we're interested. You know, obviously it's absolutely incredible that you won. And how does it feel to have kind of a controversy attached to it with all of the for people who don't know there's some controversy that Dom was on the rail with a laptop during the final table, and why don't yeah, why don't we just get your take on it.

I mean Dom brought the laptop and it was what I was like, my job was to play, and he said I'll take care or whatever, and basically advising me on breaks or whenever there's an opportunity, like any game adjustments, anything he sees, and if there's anything I decided to on the fly, that was okay, just to do it, and you were still playing poker. Kind of there's only there's only so much that can be done, Like the study was done, but you know, you just don't it was well as you don't know how everybody was gonna play. You know, we have a day. People changed their games, they might not change their games, and it's kind of a wait and see. So it's more adjusting to the situation on the fly. H Clearly there's a feed there because you'd be crazy not to get the hands from an hour ago. It's just it's just another set of eyes. Is he two sets of eyes? Because Joe's there too, so.

I mean Dom brought the laptop and it was what I was like, my job was to play, and he said I'll take care or whatever, and basically advising me on breaks or whenever there's an opportunity, like any game adjustments, anything he sees, and if there's anything I decided to on the fly, that was okay, just to do it, and you were still playing poker. Kind of there's only there's only so much that can be done, Like the study was done, but you know, you just don't it was well as you don't know how everybody was gonna play. You know, we have a day. People changed their games, they might not change their games, and it's kind of a wait and see. So it's more adjusting to the situation on the fly. H Clearly there's a feed there because you'd be crazy not to get the hands from an hour ago. It's just it's just another set of eyes. Is he two sets of eyes? Because Joe's there too, so.

He's running sims or solves and Dominic Netzsche for people don't know is no is one of the purest most gto minds and poker meaning game theory optimal. He owns a training site called.

He's running sims or solves and Dominic Netzsche for people don't know is no is one of the purest most gto minds and poker meaning game theory optimal. He owns a training site called.

Dt dt O or something very optimal optimal.

Dt dt O or something very optimal optimal.

So is he running his dt O sims on slots from an hour, spots from an hour ago or what?

So is he running his dt O sims on slots from an hour, spots from an hour ago or what?

What's he using the laptop for?

What's he using the laptop for?

I think he was chatting with a bunch of people. Uh. I know we did run his dt O stuff the prep, but those weren't Those weren't on the screen. I know that because there was a lot of drilling post lop spots. It's okay, okay, what do you do here? What do you do here? What do you do here? So whatever he was doing to adjust, I don't know what the process was at all. And he's like, don't worry about it. My jobs to play.