‘Never kiss the ring: How Canada is fighting Trump’

Published Mar 23, 2025, 6:00 PM

For months now, American president Donald Trump has been saying that Canada should become part of the United States. 

At first, many treated it as a joke.

But now, as Canadians might say, the gloves are off. Its leaders have hit back, forcefully. And Canadian comedian Mike Myers sparked a viral social movement that has swept the country, after he appeared on Saturday Night Live, motioned to his arms, and mouthed the words: “Elbows up!”

Today, former Higher Commissioner to Canada, Scott Ryan, on just how much damage Trump can do to Canadian sovereignty. And whether his threats might help determine who becomes the next Canadian prime minister.

From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Salinger Morris. It's Monday, March 24th. For months now, American President Donald Trump has been saying that Canada should become part of the United States. At first, many treated it as a joke. But now, as Canadians might say, the gloves are off. Its leaders have hit back forcefully, and Canadian comedian Mike Myers sparked a viral social movement that has swept the country after he appeared on Saturday Night Live, motioned to his arms and mouthed the words elbows up. Today, former High Commissioner to Canada Scott Ryan on just how much damage Trump can do to Canadian sovereignty and whether his threats might actually help determine who becomes the next Canadian prime minister. So, Scott, until just a few months ago, you were Australia's high commissioner to Canada. This is based in Ottawa, the country's capital. So just briefly, what did you do there in this role?

Well, high commissioner is essentially ambassador to another Commonwealth country. So you're the ambassador for Australia across Canada. And that involves all the representational work of being an ambassador, private advocacy, public relations, representational work on behalf of the Government of Australia, representing our citizens and tourists in consular matters and overseeing those activities across the country. It's a very wide range of role.

Okay, so you were hanging out with lots of Canadians. It's safe to say so. You'd be well placed to answer the next question, which is really the threats that American President Donald Trump has been making to Canadian sovereignty. So first of all, what has he said?

Well, I assume most probably heard by now of this frankly bizarre and almost unprecedented 51st state thing that he's been talking about since not long after his inauguration on January 20th.

And here's my problem with Canada. Canada was meant to be the 51st state. One of the nastiest countries to deal with is Canada. The people that.

I think many thought of it in Australia as a bit of a joke, although not in Canada itself, but he's since kept repeating it and it's now being taken a lot more seriously. He used to refer to the former prime minister, Justin Trudeau, as the governor of Canada. You know, the equivalent of the leader of the of a state in the USA.

Good old Justin. I call him Governor Trudeau. His people were nasty and they weren't telling the truth. They never told the truth, you know that. You know, they'd say, well.

He hasn't done that to the new prime minister, Mark Carney, who just took office. But he has kept referencing Canada as saying it should be the 51st state and it's quite unprecedented.

And so tell me how Canadian leaders have responded, like how serious or genuine a threat are they sort of taking this to be?

Well, I think the context here is important because, you know, Canada, I used to say, has the world's largest next door neighbor, and partly for its history, it has defined itself as not being America. In fact, over the last few weeks, Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party actually used a social media ad featuring a map of Canada described as not America.

America is not Canada and Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form.

So, you know, Donald Trump has linked this to a whole range of issues. You know, defence spending by Canada, which is both significantly lower than Australia and below the 2% NATO commitment. And this has been an irritant in the relationship for several years, including under previous administrations and occasionally going back decades, and is also linked it to border controls around people and illicit drugs. But I think, most significantly, he's linked it to the trade and economic relationship and the trade deficit balance with Canada that he erroneously describes as a subsidy.

We subsidize Canada by $200 billion a year. We don't need their cars, we don't need their lumber. We have a lot of lumber.

We're tougher with Canada than you are with only because our biggest adversaries.

Only because it's meant to be our 51st state.

Okay, but.

No, no, but listen to this for a second.

And the context is important. I think this is why it's part of the court. So many people by surprise. And this is the bit that I think Australians don't instinctively grasp. Nearly 80% of Canada's exports go to the US. Canada is the largest, largest trading partner of the US itself, but of course it represents a far smaller proportion of the US economy and US exports. There are nowhere near as important to the US as they are to Canada. So that has, you know, provoked pretty strong reactions from across the Canadian community. And starting with the leaders, as you mentioned.

What I said to the Secretary is Canada's Canada's sovereignty is not up to debate, period. There's no there's no argument. There's no conversation about it. There's no need to talk about it. You're here. You respect us. You respect our sovereignty. You're in our country. You respect our people. Period. Canadians are anxious.

And you could only really describe it as an outpouring of patriotism. And over the last decade, Some would say that it hasn't always been seen to be welcome or encouraged by the Justin Trudeau government, and the language about being proud about being Canadian has become much more forceful. There's unity across the political spectrum. Former long serving Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper has spoken out and said Canada must defend its interests and sovereignty, even if it means becoming poorer to do so through the economic relationship. Justin Trudeau When PM and opposition leader Pierre Poilievre have both called for substantial specific targeted tariff responses targeting parts of the US and sensitive industries and sensitive states electorally, the newly installed Prime minister, Mark Carney, hasn't gone quite as forceful yet. He's defended the tariffs and said they will come into place if the Americans bring them in. But he's also said that talks can begin with President Trump when Canadian sovereignty is respected, in a twist that Australians might understand. One of the things is that bottle shops across Canada are often government owned, and they've all had all their American wine and spirits and beer stripped from the shelves.

Well, this brings me to my next question, which is how have you know Canadians, everyday Canadians on the street responded to Trump's, you know, threats to Canadian sovereignty.

Well, like I said, the pride in being Canadian has really come to the fore. And in a few sort of moments that probably weren't expected. You know, there are a lot of sporting contests where American teams play Canadian teams, the National Hockey League, the National Basketball Association. In summer baseball. You all have Canadian teams in that. And in recent times, when they play the Star-Spangled banner, immediately after they play O Canada, the crowd has started booing.

See, by the dawn's early light, what so proudly.

And you know that's not something you expect of what is traditionally very polite society.

I mean, it's quite incredible. I mean, I am Canadian myself, and I can definitely say that growing up, you didn't see Canadians booing the American teams that they played on the ice and elsewhere. So this is, I think, a reflection of of a growing anger, really. And I was wondering if you could tell us about the viral movement which Canadians have been swept up in called the elbows up movement. So what's this all about?

You know, in hockey, anyone who's seen it, it's a particularly rough sport. And the elbows up is a reference to the ability in hockey to raise your elbow, to stop an opponent coming at you or to protect yourself. It's almost the exact opposite of what you're allowed to do in Australian football and rugby.

Elbows up. We rise together.

But fight when we must. Elbows up.

Elbows up, elbows up.

Time. We will never kiss the gangster's ring.

It's become a rallying cry.

And so that's become a meme. Across t shirts, across badges, across the internet. You know it's time for Canada to put its elbows up. But as you said, it does reflect a move to a much more pointed pride and a defence of Canadian interests and a promotion of Canadian sovereignty. And it's being seen across supermarkets, across retail. You know, there are little tags in supermarkets now of Buy Canadian. And there was another internet trend of people through a supermarket would turn the first item on a shelf upside down if it was made in America, so that people wouldn't mistakenly buy it. So there's a real buy Canadian. Protect our interests. Move.

We'll be right back.

And you said something.

Really interesting to me before we started recording, which is that Canadians who are perhaps 50 and older or around that age, they're still actually a bit scarred by the separatist referendum, which took place in 1995. This is when Canadians in Quebec went to the polls to decide whether their province should actually separate from the rest of Canada. So can you tell us a little bit about that? And I guess, how many Canadians still, you know, feel that sort of that soft spot when it comes to any threats to their unity, even, you know, 30 years later?

Well, that's one of the real big differences between Australia and Canada. You know, Quebec is roughly 20% of Canada in population and size. And you know, it is a French speaking community that has a distinctive history and is very proud of it. And that referendum in 1995, you know, came within 1% of succeeding. And until the days immediately before the poll, it was leading in the polls. And that followed, you know, almost a quarter of a century of very strong separatist language, a strong separatist campaign that did even involve, you know, domestic terrorism in the early 1970s, um, and a couple of murders of significant players. And in my time in Canada, I was struck by how much I thought this defined some of the thinking of senior people in government. You know, I'm 51 of my age and above who could remember it. And this question of national unity as they refer to it and the quest to ensure that doesn't happen again. And interestingly, separatist opinion was increasing over the last couple of years. And the separatist party, the Parti Québécois, which is explicitly committed to Quebec sovereignty, and their leader, who said we are going to have another referendum, was actually leading in the polls in Quebec. And this is all dramatically fallen since the announcements of Donald Trump. And in fact, one commentator said, look, could he even dare to say this was the only positive consequence of the events going on there at the moment, that Canadian unity has really washed away what was a bit of a rising sentiment in parts of Quebec to to relitigate that separatist debate.

So, Scott, Canada has a new prime minister, Mark Carney. And this is because, as you mentioned, Justin Trudeau, the previous leader of the Liberal Party, which is still in power. He stood down the other week. So just tell us about Mark Carney. Who is he?

So Mark Carney is the former governor of the Bank of Canada, the equivalent of the reserve Bank of Australia. And following his appointment there, he actually became governor of the Bank of England. And then he came back to Canada. Justin Trudeau was effectively forced to resign earlier this year, and political parties in Canada don't elect their leaders from just amongst the MPs and by the MPs. They have membership ballots of hundreds of thousands of people. And so Mark Carney ran in the ballot that took about six weeks to become the leader of the Liberal Party and then get appointed prime minister. But interestingly, his prime minister without having a seat in parliament at the moment. And so we're recording this on Thursday and it's pretty much expected that over the weekend, he will call an election to avoid facing a no confidence motion in parliament, where the Liberal Party is a minority government, it doesn't have a majority and therefore he would be able to then go to the polls as prime minister and take a seat in Parliament. And it will probably run in parallel with our impending election.

I really want you to tell us a little.

Bit more about this, because I think it's quite fascinating that before Donald Trump's threats to Canadian sovereignty, it's fair to say that the Liberal Party, you know, it had plummeted in the polls. I mean, Justin Trudeau had to leave because his popularity was so low. Really, the party was on track to suffer, I think, a catastrophic loss at the next federal election. But do you think that Trump what he's done might actually sway the next election? You know, do you think that he might actually lead to the liberals getting into power again, because Mark Carney has really positioned himself as a strong opponent to the Trump message, and he's positioned his own opponent, the conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, as being sort of like a Maga follower.

Yeah, well, eight weeks ago, you know, the Conservative Party was, you know, 20 points ahead in the polls and that 15 to 20 point lead had been for over a year. Um, the Trudeau Liberal Party was polling so low it might not even form the opposition as the second largest party in parliament. Two things changed that. The departure of Justin Trudeau, which was a huge factor. And then, of course, the pronouncements of Donald Trump. You know, having followed Canadian politics for a while and before my time there, one long time feature of it has been to sort of scratch the American itch, to sort of define candidates as being too close to or too American in their outlook. And in fact, all arguments about health policy in Canada and Canadian Medicare are framed in terms of we don't want American style healthcare. And it's, again, that proximity to the world's biggest next door neighbor. So that's one of the reasons that the Liberal Party is trying to portray the opposition leader, Pierre Poilievre as that. I don't think that's a fair characterization, but that's politics. And over the last two days, I checked that the two most recent polls have two polls with Liberal Party leading and two polls with the Conservative Party still ahead. But in essence, it's too close to call. But that departure of Justin Trudeau, the impact of Trump's announcements and the installation of Mark Carney have made it a contest, one pollster said. We've gone from what was going to be a change election about changing domestic politics because, you know, a ten year government. There were all these economic challenges to one of leadership because of the impact of these announcements on the Canadian economy.

That's incredible. And I guess just how catastrophic an impact could these tariffs that he has imposed on Canada and then taken off and put on again, how much could they actually whack Canada's economy? Like could they bring it into a recession?

So one analysis detailed, one I saw a few weeks ago said that the tariffs as initially announced, and he's still suggesting that's what he's going to follow through with would lead to potentially 2 to 3% hit to the economy and a jump in unemployment from, you know, six and a bit to 9.5%. You know, very, very quickly, the Bank of Canada came out yesterday and said slightly smaller, but in essence, it's a Covid style, lockdown style hit to the economy and particularly in parts of the country that have a large manufacturing sector like southern Ontario, where they're motor manufacturing sector is essentially part of the Detroit manufacturing, car manufacturing economic sector. If those tariffs come in place and you have parts of cars crossing the border up to seven times, it could have a drastic impact on key sectors of the economy. But it's on top of that unpredictability of this impacting investment going forward, which can then have, of course, a much longer economic tail than its future impact as well. In short, it's very hard to resist the gravitational pull of the US economy. So this has been a long standing debate, and Canadian government policy has sought trade diversification, but it's hard to see how the economic opportunities of the US can be replicated without there being some cost to divert trade elsewhere.

So, Scott.

Just to wrap up, are there any lessons in this for us here in Australia?

Well, the first thing I'd say is the breadth of relations between Canadians and the US are hard for us to compare to. It's not just an economic relationship, a defence relationship. It's a it's an educational relationship. 2.5 million Canadians a year go to Florida alone. You've got the snowbirds, the version of our grey nomads, except they drive south to avoid the Canadian winter with their caravans. So millions of Canadians have study links, family links, professional links that the kids going to universities across the border. So I think the direct comparisons are difficult. The lesson I take is don't conflate a government policy with the people. A government's temporary people are not. But I do think we we all need to understand that we're dealing with an administration that intends to disrupt some of the assumptions we have made, particularly about trade and the economy, and countries like Australia and Canada, to varying degrees, have to live in the world the way it is, not necessarily the way we wish it was.

Well, thank you so much, Scott, for your time.

Thanks for having me.

Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself and Josh towers. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. Tom Kendrick is our head of audio. The Morning Edition is a production of The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. To support our journalism, subscribe to us by visiting The Age or smh.com.au. Forward slash, subscribe and sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter to receive a comprehensive summary of the day's most important news, analysis and insights in your inbox every day. Links are in the show. Notes. I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris. This is the morning edition. Thanks for listening.