Hello everyone. My name is Jacqueline Maley and welcome to a very fast and loose and live episode of Inside Politics. We finally have an election date. We're staring down the barrel of a five week campaign before voting day on May the 3rd. And here, from the newsrooms of The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald, we're going to be bringing you our humble podcast twice a week during the campaign. There's going to be a lot of news around, so we're here to help you navigate your way through the barrage of information with the most trusted voices in Australian journalism. And among them are national affairs editor James Massola and federal political reporter Natasha Chrysanthos, who joined us from the Canberra studio today. Hi, guys.

Hello everyone. My name is Jacqueline Maley and welcome to a very fast and loose and live episode of Inside Politics. We finally have an election date. We're staring down the barrel of a five week campaign before voting day on May the 3rd. And here, from the newsrooms of The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald, we're going to be bringing you our humble podcast twice a week during the campaign. There's going to be a lot of news around, so we're here to help you navigate your way through the barrage of information with the most trusted voices in Australian journalism. And among them are national affairs editor James Massola and federal political reporter Natasha Chrysanthos, who joined us from the Canberra studio today. Hi, guys.

Hi, Jess. Hi.

Hi, Jess. Hi.

Now I just want a quick vibe check, because it's been kind of a busy week. We've been waiting for the election to be called. The announcement obviously was delayed by a few weeks because of. I think it's now called Ex-tropical Cyclone Alfred. We had the budget lock up on Tuesday. We had the budget reply speech on Thursday night and Friday morning. This morning the election was called. Are you guys exhausted? Excited? How are you feeling?

Now I just want a quick vibe check, because it's been kind of a busy week. We've been waiting for the election to be called. The announcement obviously was delayed by a few weeks because of. I think it's now called Ex-tropical Cyclone Alfred. We had the budget lock up on Tuesday. We had the budget reply speech on Thursday night and Friday morning. This morning the election was called. Are you guys exhausted? Excited? How are you feeling?

Uh, at the moment, more exhausted than excited. Um, Jackie, it's been a big week, but also excited. I mean, this is what we wait, you know, three years for over and over again. But at this point of the cycle, and I think in particular, it's exciting because we've seen Peter Dutton kind of slowly claim the ascendancy since before The Voice referendum. And only in the last month or so has he started to come off the boil. Have we started to see some leaks come out of the coalition? Have we seen Labour really kind of start to give a sense that they've got a bit of momentum, that they've got a clear strategy. And so I think we're now at this point, Jackie, where the campaign is perhaps going to be a little bit more consequential than we may have thought six months ago.

Uh, at the moment, more exhausted than excited. Um, Jackie, it's been a big week, but also excited. I mean, this is what we wait, you know, three years for over and over again. But at this point of the cycle, and I think in particular, it's exciting because we've seen Peter Dutton kind of slowly claim the ascendancy since before The Voice referendum. And only in the last month or so has he started to come off the boil. Have we started to see some leaks come out of the coalition? Have we seen Labour really kind of start to give a sense that they've got a bit of momentum, that they've got a clear strategy. And so I think we're now at this point, Jackie, where the campaign is perhaps going to be a little bit more consequential than we may have thought six months ago.

Taz.

Taz.

Excited. Thrilled. Thrilled. I think that's a good point, James. There. There has been a shift in energy since a kind of few weeks into this year, which has lifted the pace a bit and I think heightened the stakes quite a bit as well. So that has been a welcome kind of invigoration.

Excited. Thrilled. Thrilled. I think that's a good point, James. There. There has been a shift in energy since a kind of few weeks into this year, which has lifted the pace a bit and I think heightened the stakes quite a bit as well. So that has been a welcome kind of invigoration.

Yeah, I think it's neck and neck for the two major parties, but Labour is more likely to form a minority government. That's seen as the most likely outcome, then coalition minority, then coalition majority. And the least likely outcome is a Labour majority. Now, I don't think that's right because of what's happened in the last four weeks, but maybe that's just a lag in the in the bookies odds, but they usually have a pretty good idea. So I think that gives you a sense of how kind of all over the place and a bit nebulous it still is.

Yeah, I think it's neck and neck for the two major parties, but Labour is more likely to form a minority government. That's seen as the most likely outcome, then coalition minority, then coalition majority. And the least likely outcome is a Labour majority. Now, I don't think that's right because of what's happened in the last four weeks, but maybe that's just a lag in the in the bookies odds, but they usually have a pretty good idea. So I think that gives you a sense of how kind of all over the place and a bit nebulous it still is.

Yeah. The wisdom of the betting markets, everything unfolded this morning, Friday morning, bright and early about 7 a.m., when the Prime Minister took the trip from from Parliament to the Governor-General's joint, and then he went back to Parliament House and held a press conference in the prime ministerial courtyard. Natasha, what did he tell Australians? It was a pretty big address and he was sort of back to his usual fighting form, I thought.

Yeah. The wisdom of the betting markets, everything unfolded this morning, Friday morning, bright and early about 7 a.m., when the Prime Minister took the trip from from Parliament to the Governor-General's joint, and then he went back to Parliament House and held a press conference in the prime ministerial courtyard. Natasha, what did he tell Australians? It was a pretty big address and he was sort of back to his usual fighting form, I thought.

Yeah, And it was a real kind of labor speech, kind of from the get go. He's focusing on Labor's key promises around childcare, healthcare in particular. He whipped out his Medicare card. That's something we've seen labor ministers do a lot of late. Medicare is going to be a really key plank of their campaign. And what they're trying to do is stamp labor all over Medicare and make it a kind of partisan brand. Started, you know, quite strong with this positive message about building Australia's future. That's the labor campaign slogan for 2025 and said, quite literally, this is our positive plan. And then about halfway through, you then had the switch, which has been the feature of Labor's campaign. They've tried to sell this positive message about, um, you know, progressive reform. They're doing the job. They've laid the foundations. Now they're, you know, now the economy is turning the corner and there are more bright times ahead. Paired with this. You can't trust Dutton. Dutton's going to cut, cut, cut. Dutton's a risk message. And that's what Labor's been playing with in this last three months, since the beginning of the year. And we started this strange pre-election mode. And that was precisely the structure of Albanese's speech today as well. So he didn't really veer from the script that he's been practicing from the last three months at all.

Yeah, And it was a real kind of labor speech, kind of from the get go. He's focusing on Labor's key promises around childcare, healthcare in particular. He whipped out his Medicare card. That's something we've seen labor ministers do a lot of late. Medicare is going to be a really key plank of their campaign. And what they're trying to do is stamp labor all over Medicare and make it a kind of partisan brand. Started, you know, quite strong with this positive message about building Australia's future. That's the labor campaign slogan for 2025 and said, quite literally, this is our positive plan. And then about halfway through, you then had the switch, which has been the feature of Labor's campaign. They've tried to sell this positive message about, um, you know, progressive reform. They're doing the job. They've laid the foundations. Now they're, you know, now the economy is turning the corner and there are more bright times ahead. Paired with this. You can't trust Dutton. Dutton's going to cut, cut, cut. Dutton's a risk message. And that's what Labor's been playing with in this last three months, since the beginning of the year. And we started this strange pre-election mode. And that was precisely the structure of Albanese's speech today as well. So he didn't really veer from the script that he's been practicing from the last three months at all.

Yeah. It was interesting that he sort of brandished the Medicare card because, as you say, he really by doing that, he really makes labor own it. And of course, he said in that speech that, you know, that Dutton wanted to cut Medicare to pay for things, that he hasn't said how he's going to pay for James. But in Dutton's budget reply last night, he actually specifically said that he supported Medicare and that he wanted to put more money into the PBS. So which side do you think voters will believe?

Yeah. It was interesting that he sort of brandished the Medicare card because, as you say, he really by doing that, he really makes labor own it. And of course, he said in that speech that, you know, that Dutton wanted to cut Medicare to pay for things, that he hasn't said how he's going to pay for James. But in Dutton's budget reply last night, he actually specifically said that he supported Medicare and that he wanted to put more money into the PBS. So which side do you think voters will believe?

Look, I think Dutton's very aware of his vulnerabilities on health. Um, it's not a core equity of the Liberal Party, you know, to sort of say we're the defenders of Medicare. It hasn't been for decades. It very much is obviously for labor. They're the founders of Medicare. So what we've seen is, you know, an extra $500 million promised from the coalition, on top of the 8.5 billion promised from labor for Medicare. I think Dutton has a sort of a good rejoinder or a good attack line, insofar as bulk billing has actually gone down under labor compared to under the coalition, even though that's slightly skewed because of Covid. But ultimately, to your question, Jackie, I think people will still trust labor first on Medicare. And there's a reason. I mean, and labor knows that it's, you know, what's that saying? It's deja vu all over again. Another Medicare election like 2016. You know, labor is not going to be deterred by Dutton, you know, promising a bit of extra money and saying, oh, no, no, I'll be really good for Medicare as well. I don't think they have the credits in the bank.

Look, I think Dutton's very aware of his vulnerabilities on health. Um, it's not a core equity of the Liberal Party, you know, to sort of say we're the defenders of Medicare. It hasn't been for decades. It very much is obviously for labor. They're the founders of Medicare. So what we've seen is, you know, an extra $500 million promised from the coalition, on top of the 8.5 billion promised from labor for Medicare. I think Dutton has a sort of a good rejoinder or a good attack line, insofar as bulk billing has actually gone down under labor compared to under the coalition, even though that's slightly skewed because of Covid. But ultimately, to your question, Jackie, I think people will still trust labor first on Medicare. And there's a reason. I mean, and labor knows that it's, you know, what's that saying? It's deja vu all over again. Another Medicare election like 2016. You know, labor is not going to be deterred by Dutton, you know, promising a bit of extra money and saying, oh, no, no, I'll be really good for Medicare as well. I don't think they have the credits in the bank.

Just quickly back on Albanese, James, he got a bit emotional in his speech when he talked about his mother, Marianne, and he talked about how she received excellent health care at RPA Hospital in Sydney, just down the road in Camperdown, which was the same healthcare that the billionaire Kerry Packer received when he had a heart attack, I think. And when Albanese himself had a had a car crash just around the corner from his home.

Just quickly back on Albanese, James, he got a bit emotional in his speech when he talked about his mother, Marianne, and he talked about how she received excellent health care at RPA Hospital in Sydney, just down the road in Camperdown, which was the same healthcare that the billionaire Kerry Packer received when he had a heart attack, I think. And when Albanese himself had a had a car crash just around the corner from his home.

I was in the same room that my mum was in when, as an invalid pensioner, she got taken up the road after having an annual.

I was in the same room that my mum was in when, as an invalid pensioner, she got taken up the road after having an annual.

He gets very vulnerable.

He gets very vulnerable.

And sort of emotional when he talks about his mother. Do you think that that's something that cuts through to voters, even though they have heard that story before?

And sort of emotional when he talks about his mother. Do you think that that's something that cuts through to voters, even though they have heard that story before?

Yeah, I think it absolutely does. I mean, protecting Medicare, cherishing Medicare, boosting Medicare, these are lines of attack for the ALP. But it is also a thing that the Labor Party really strongly believes in. And you can see that, I mean, as you said, Jack, the PM at the very least, kind of got really wobbly, had that quiver in his voice for a moment or three talking about his mum, which he always does, but it also is talking about or rather, it sort of speaks to the sort of Australia he and the Labor Labour Party that they want this country to be. Um, so it very much reaches into here for him. Um, and yeah, we saw that on.

Yeah, I think it absolutely does. I mean, protecting Medicare, cherishing Medicare, boosting Medicare, these are lines of attack for the ALP. But it is also a thing that the Labor Party really strongly believes in. And you can see that, I mean, as you said, Jack, the PM at the very least, kind of got really wobbly, had that quiver in his voice for a moment or three talking about his mum, which he always does, but it also is talking about or rather, it sort of speaks to the sort of Australia he and the Labor Labour Party that they want this country to be. Um, so it very much reaches into here for him. Um, and yeah, we saw that on.

Yeah. He sort of held it up as a talisman of, of Australian fairness basically, and equality.

Yeah. He sort of held it up as a talisman of, of Australian fairness basically, and equality.

It wasn't part of his speech either. It came in the questions, and I think it was the most sincere that I've felt him to be in making comments like that in quite a while, which was quite interesting.

It wasn't part of his speech either. It came in the questions, and I think it was the most sincere that I've felt him to be in making comments like that in quite a while, which was quite interesting.

Yeah. Four hours later, um, Opposition leader Peter Dutton gave his speech to the Australian public. Um, you know, posing himself as leader and shaping up to Anthony Albanese for the election campaign. Notably, he did it in Brisbane, not in Canberra. Task. Why would that be?

Yeah. Four hours later, um, Opposition leader Peter Dutton gave his speech to the Australian public. Um, you know, posing himself as leader and shaping up to Anthony Albanese for the election campaign. Notably, he did it in Brisbane, not in Canberra. Task. Why would that be?

I think Dutton has made his kind of disdain for the Canberra bubble quite clear. You know, in the way he talks about Canberra very often. Um, he's been one to, you know, go to shock jock radio interviews rather than press conferences. Most of his press conferences aren't held in Canberra. He does a lot of, um, a lot around Queensland, a lot of regional areas and local communities. So I think this is very much going with the form of what we've seen, we've done in terms of his media strategy. He doesn't centre Canberra even though he's worked here as a politician for almost 25 years. He pitches himself as someone who's kind of above and beyond that. And I think this is what we've seen with this decision today.

I think Dutton has made his kind of disdain for the Canberra bubble quite clear. You know, in the way he talks about Canberra very often. Um, he's been one to, you know, go to shock jock radio interviews rather than press conferences. Most of his press conferences aren't held in Canberra. He does a lot of, um, a lot around Queensland, a lot of regional areas and local communities. So I think this is very much going with the form of what we've seen, we've done in terms of his media strategy. He doesn't centre Canberra even though he's worked here as a politician for almost 25 years. He pitches himself as someone who's kind of above and beyond that. And I think this is what we've seen with this decision today.

James, how did Dutton compare in his pitch to the public in Brisbane?

James, how did Dutton compare in his pitch to the public in Brisbane?

I thought Peter Dutton's pitch both last night in the budget. Reply. Jackie. And also in their sort of first pitch today. This morning I thought it was dark. I thought it lacked detail, particularly on substantive policy. And I think it for me highlighted how much explaining they have to do. Still, on at least let's say, 2 or 3 key policies. I mean, he did not mention this morning the nuclear power policy at all in his preamble. You know, in his opening pitch to Australians, it only came up when someone asked him and he pivoted straight back to gas, gas, gas, gas, gas. We need more gas as soon as he could. I think that tells you that the nuclear power policy is now a net negative for him.

I thought Peter Dutton's pitch both last night in the budget. Reply. Jackie. And also in their sort of first pitch today. This morning I thought it was dark. I thought it lacked detail, particularly on substantive policy. And I think it for me highlighted how much explaining they have to do. Still, on at least let's say, 2 or 3 key policies. I mean, he did not mention this morning the nuclear power policy at all in his preamble. You know, in his opening pitch to Australians, it only came up when someone asked him and he pivoted straight back to gas, gas, gas, gas, gas. We need more gas as soon as he could. I think that tells you that the nuclear power policy is now a net negative for him.

I think it's important to point out that our plan has gas and a lot of gas in the system between now and when nuclear can come online in 2035 to 37. The Prime Minister's plan of renewables rolls out over about a 15 year period.

I think it's important to point out that our plan has gas and a lot of gas in the system between now and when nuclear can come online in 2035 to 37. The Prime Minister's plan of renewables rolls out over about a 15 year period.

And look, with respect to his budget reply speech Thursday night, I described it in the pages of the Herald and The Age as a form of Australian carnage. It reminded me of Donald Trump's first inauguration address, where he talked about American carnage and all the things that are wrong. This, you know, with this, in that case, that country. And I alone can fix it. It almost felt like Dutton was borrowing from that playbook a bit. And I just for me, a fundamental question is, do Australians believe, after just three years of Anthony Albanese, that things are that bad in this country and I question whether they do.

And look, with respect to his budget reply speech Thursday night, I described it in the pages of the Herald and The Age as a form of Australian carnage. It reminded me of Donald Trump's first inauguration address, where he talked about American carnage and all the things that are wrong. This, you know, with this, in that case, that country. And I alone can fix it. It almost felt like Dutton was borrowing from that playbook a bit. And I just for me, a fundamental question is, do Australians believe, after just three years of Anthony Albanese, that things are that bad in this country and I question whether they do.

You mentioned energy there and the nuclear energy policy of the coalition, which, as you say, I think this only mentioned very briefly in Dutton's budget reply speech on Thursday night a couple of times, and on Friday morning, again, it was barely mentioned. The focus very much now seems to be on gas getting energy prices down by reserving Australian gas for Australian consumers. So James, are we going to see very much an election campaign around energy. You know Labor's 100% renewable policy as they call it, versus nuclear. But really we're talking about gas which is plentiful and will be cheap if we can make it cheap.

You mentioned energy there and the nuclear energy policy of the coalition, which, as you say, I think this only mentioned very briefly in Dutton's budget reply speech on Thursday night a couple of times, and on Friday morning, again, it was barely mentioned. The focus very much now seems to be on gas getting energy prices down by reserving Australian gas for Australian consumers. So James, are we going to see very much an election campaign around energy. You know Labor's 100% renewable policy as they call it, versus nuclear. But really we're talking about gas which is plentiful and will be cheap if we can make it cheap.

Yeah. I think what we're going to see, Jack, is a lot of talk about it. I think you're right. But what we're actually going to see is the two major parties arguing about how different their policy approaches are. But in reality, other than nuclear, they're not actually that different. Like the coalition, for example, although it says it quietly acknowledges that the rollout of renewable energy will continue. And labor, for its part, says very clearly we can't get to net zero by 2050 with, you know, and to our interim targets in 2030 and 2035 without gas being part of the mix in the energy system in this country, they actually agree with each other. So we're they're going to emphasize each other's differences. But in fact at the at the heart of it, they're quite similar. The policies I mean.

Yeah. I think what we're going to see, Jack, is a lot of talk about it. I think you're right. But what we're actually going to see is the two major parties arguing about how different their policy approaches are. But in reality, other than nuclear, they're not actually that different. Like the coalition, for example, although it says it quietly acknowledges that the rollout of renewable energy will continue. And labor, for its part, says very clearly we can't get to net zero by 2050 with, you know, and to our interim targets in 2030 and 2035 without gas being part of the mix in the energy system in this country, they actually agree with each other. So we're they're going to emphasize each other's differences. But in fact at the at the heart of it, they're quite similar. The policies I mean.

The climate was continue to continue. Just wrapping up, I want to ask both of you just how close this is going to be. James, you talked about the betting markets before, which are slightly confused and have flipped their position. What does that tell you and what do the polls say?

The climate was continue to continue. Just wrapping up, I want to ask both of you just how close this is going to be. James, you talked about the betting markets before, which are slightly confused and have flipped their position. What does that tell you and what do the polls say?

The vast majority of the polls suggest we're headed towards a minority government territory. A lot could happen in five weeks. But at this point in time, Jackie, my tip is minority government. I don't know which way it'll go. I think probably given we're at about 50 over 50, if you take the sort of aggregate of polls that probably favors the incumbent, that probably puts labor a little bit ahead. It doesn't mean they're necessarily getting majority government, though. We'll find out in the next five weeks.

The vast majority of the polls suggest we're headed towards a minority government territory. A lot could happen in five weeks. But at this point in time, Jackie, my tip is minority government. I don't know which way it'll go. I think probably given we're at about 50 over 50, if you take the sort of aggregate of polls that probably favors the incumbent, that probably puts labor a little bit ahead. It doesn't mean they're necessarily getting majority government, though. We'll find out in the next five weeks.

Does. Us.

Does. Us.

I think I was kind of creating a timeline of this last term of Parliament for our audience. And what was very clear was the first 18 months of this term, from May 2022 till November 2023, was really labours. There was kind of really unusually high approval ratings for Albanese. They were pushing legislation through. They had climate targets, safeguard mechanisms. You know, they pushed their IR changes through. And the polls just flipped from that point in October, November, you had the October 7th attack in Israel. A week later, The voice sunk. Then on November 7th, like three weeks later, you had that final of those interest rate rises, interest rates peaked. And the next day the Zeke High Court decision released from immigration detainees into the community. And from that point, we had this narrative of labor unravelling the coalition ascendant. I think we saw that right until the final week of Parliament last year and this last two or so months is the first time that the narrative has shifted and things look even. It was this labor dominance, coalition dominance, and it's changing so fast.

I think I was kind of creating a timeline of this last term of Parliament for our audience. And what was very clear was the first 18 months of this term, from May 2022 till November 2023, was really labours. There was kind of really unusually high approval ratings for Albanese. They were pushing legislation through. They had climate targets, safeguard mechanisms. You know, they pushed their IR changes through. And the polls just flipped from that point in October, November, you had the October 7th attack in Israel. A week later, The voice sunk. Then on November 7th, like three weeks later, you had that final of those interest rate rises, interest rates peaked. And the next day the Zeke High Court decision released from immigration detainees into the community. And from that point, we had this narrative of labor unravelling the coalition ascendant. I think we saw that right until the final week of Parliament last year and this last two or so months is the first time that the narrative has shifted and things look even. It was this labor dominance, coalition dominance, and it's changing so fast.

It's going to be very interesting, I think. Thanks so much to you guys for taking time, because I know how busy it is and for bearing with me in this slightly fast and loose environment. And we're going to see you both again very soon.

It's going to be very interesting, I think. Thanks so much to you guys for taking time, because I know how busy it is and for bearing with me in this slightly fast and loose environment. And we're going to see you both again very soon.

Thank you. Bye.

Thank you. Bye.

See ya.

See ya.

Today's episode was produced by Julia Katzel. Our executive producer is Tami Mills, and Tom McKendrick is our head of audio. To listen to our episodes as soon as they drop, follow Inside Politics on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen to your podcasts and stay up to date with all the election coverage and exclusives by visiting The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald websites. Our newsrooms are powered by subscriptions, so if you want to support independent journalism. Search. Subscribe. Sydney Morning Herald or The Age? I'm Jacqueline Maley. Thank you for listening.

Today's episode was produced by Julia Katzel. Our executive producer is Tami Mills, and Tom McKendrick is our head of audio. To listen to our episodes as soon as they drop, follow Inside Politics on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen to your podcasts and stay up to date with all the election coverage and exclusives by visiting The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald websites. Our newsrooms are powered by subscriptions, so if you want to support independent journalism. Search. Subscribe. Sydney Morning Herald or The Age? I'm Jacqueline Maley. Thank you for listening.