From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley. Usually we bring you this podcast on Friday, but we're bringing this episode on Thursday, March 27th. So it's Canberra's version of Christmas, Federal Budget Day. On Tuesday, the Albanese government handed down its fourth federal budget. We got a tax cut, which the opposition has labelled a cruel hoax and a largish deficit in the forward estimates. With a little bit of something for everyone. It was very much a pre-election budget. But will it win voters over? But first up, we're bringing you this episode soon after Peter Dutton gave his budget reply. And so we'll dissect the opposition leader's speech before delving into the issues of the week and the government's budget.

From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley. Usually we bring you this podcast on Friday, but we're bringing this episode on Thursday, March 27th. So it's Canberra's version of Christmas, Federal Budget Day. On Tuesday, the Albanese government handed down its fourth federal budget. We got a tax cut, which the opposition has labelled a cruel hoax and a largish deficit in the forward estimates. With a little bit of something for everyone. It was very much a pre-election budget. But will it win voters over? But first up, we're bringing you this episode soon after Peter Dutton gave his budget reply. And so we'll dissect the opposition leader's speech before delving into the issues of the week and the government's budget.

Thank you very much, Mr. Speaker. Well, to Australians listening tonight, thank you very much for your time. Soon you'll have a say in determining the future of our great country.

Thank you very much, Mr. Speaker. Well, to Australians listening tonight, thank you very much for your time. Soon you'll have a say in determining the future of our great country.

So we're coming to you. Late on Thursday night, after Peter Dutton's budget reply speech in the House of Representatives and zipping over from the house to the press gallery, we have Shane Wright and David Crowe. Meanwhile, I'm at home in Sydney. Hi, guys.

So we're coming to you. Late on Thursday night, after Peter Dutton's budget reply speech in the House of Representatives and zipping over from the house to the press gallery, we have Shane Wright and David Crowe. Meanwhile, I'm at home in Sydney. Hi, guys.

Hello, both.

Hello, both.

Hello to all.

Hello to all.

Okay, so let's talk about the Peter Dutton speech. First of all, just David, you just want to give us a quick, quick run through of the main measures or main promises. He made.

Okay, so let's talk about the Peter Dutton speech. First of all, just David, you just want to give us a quick, quick run through of the main measures or main promises. He made.

The main messages in terms of policy were things that he has mostly already announced. We already knew that he was going to cut fuel excise, for instance, and we heard more about that in the speech. Um, but clearly he's decided not to go anywhere on personal tax cuts. So it was the absences in the speech that were as interesting in a way, as the things that he talked about. He also had a big message about passing laws, um, in the first days of a Dutton government to do things like manage community safety, manage migration, uh, address the housing shortage and guarantee funding for things like health and the NDIS, tried to defend himself against Labour attacks about spending cuts. However, what he didn't have was clarity about his migration target. Um, an actual policy about housing supply or in fact, any really new policy about community safety, even though that was a big theme of the speech. So he's clearly keeping his options open for further policy announcements during the campaign.

The main messages in terms of policy were things that he has mostly already announced. We already knew that he was going to cut fuel excise, for instance, and we heard more about that in the speech. Um, but clearly he's decided not to go anywhere on personal tax cuts. So it was the absences in the speech that were as interesting in a way, as the things that he talked about. He also had a big message about passing laws, um, in the first days of a Dutton government to do things like manage community safety, manage migration, uh, address the housing shortage and guarantee funding for things like health and the NDIS, tried to defend himself against Labour attacks about spending cuts. However, what he didn't have was clarity about his migration target. Um, an actual policy about housing supply or in fact, any really new policy about community safety, even though that was a big theme of the speech. So he's clearly keeping his options open for further policy announcements during the campaign.

Yeah. Shane, what did you think about the sort of funding side of things? Because he did announce, I mean, they're meeting or matching labor on a lot of the sort of more social measures, right, like the Medicare funding, PBS. They're also promising the fuel excise cut. And he said generally that he wanted to make Australia a mining and agricultural and manufacturing powerhouse again, and they would invest in that, and that would boost the economy and make more money to spend on services. But I mean, is is that a sort of solid enough commitment?

Yeah. Shane, what did you think about the sort of funding side of things? Because he did announce, I mean, they're meeting or matching labor on a lot of the sort of more social measures, right, like the Medicare funding, PBS. They're also promising the fuel excise cut. And he said generally that he wanted to make Australia a mining and agricultural and manufacturing powerhouse again, and they would invest in that, and that would boost the economy and make more money to spend on services. But I mean, is is that a sort of solid enough commitment?

I wouldn't want to build your house, let alone my own. On that foundation. Um, Jackie. It was interesting because, for instance, one of their big saving has been we're going to get rid of somehow 41,000 public servants. And only a few weeks ago he said. Right. It will save 6 billion a year. Four times that we save 24 billion, which will mean we are able to pay for a whole host of things in the speech. He's actually conceded. Right. We get rid of them eventually. It'll cost. It'll save us $7 billion a year, but it will take us over the next four years. That will only save us 10 billion. So you've immediately got a $14 billion issue. He outlined some of the things that they're going to cut, which we knew, such as the National Reconstruction Fund. But that's off budget. So that doesn't hit the bottom line. During the speech he. This is about fuel excise. And this was just dropped in while he was speaking. He said yes, we'll provide fuel excise relief. Uh, it'll cost us $6 billion, and then we'll review it. The we will review. It was added. So he's given out this hope that you will get a continuation of the fuel excise reduction. And I'm glad you picked up on the other key economic issue, which I want to read it out because he said my intention is to make Australia a mining, agriculture, construction and manufacturing powerhouse. Again.

I wouldn't want to build your house, let alone my own. On that foundation. Um, Jackie. It was interesting because, for instance, one of their big saving has been we're going to get rid of somehow 41,000 public servants. And only a few weeks ago he said. Right. It will save 6 billion a year. Four times that we save 24 billion, which will mean we are able to pay for a whole host of things in the speech. He's actually conceded. Right. We get rid of them eventually. It'll cost. It'll save us $7 billion a year, but it will take us over the next four years. That will only save us 10 billion. So you've immediately got a $14 billion issue. He outlined some of the things that they're going to cut, which we knew, such as the National Reconstruction Fund. But that's off budget. So that doesn't hit the bottom line. During the speech he. This is about fuel excise. And this was just dropped in while he was speaking. He said yes, we'll provide fuel excise relief. Uh, it'll cost us $6 billion, and then we'll review it. The we will review. It was added. So he's given out this hope that you will get a continuation of the fuel excise reduction. And I'm glad you picked up on the other key economic issue, which I want to read it out because he said my intention is to make Australia a mining, agriculture, construction and manufacturing powerhouse. Again.

The revenue generated from these revived sectors will create more money to build new infrastructure, to fund health and education, and importantly, to equip our defence forces.

The revenue generated from these revived sectors will create more money to build new infrastructure, to fund health and education, and importantly, to equip our defence forces.

That like it's straight out of a like almost out of a Donald Trump speech where you'd say, we're going to make these great areas again. Strong agriculture employs fewer than 300,000 people. Mining employs 300,000 people, manufacturing 881,000in construction, a bit larger. But that's only 20% of the workforce. Force who's going to save the rest of the country? We didn't get a mention of, say, the people working in healthcare there. The biggest number employed by 2.3 million. Nothing about the education people. 1.3 million. Professional services. Another 1.3. So really it's a harking back like we are talking about where Australia, the Australian economy was 50 years. 60 years ago when Bob Menzies was watching a Holden FJ roll off the, uh, off the the plant down in Fishermans Bend in Melbourne. It's really interesting in what he's trying to hark into, and also papering over the fact that there is a lot of there's absence, a lot of detail.

That like it's straight out of a like almost out of a Donald Trump speech where you'd say, we're going to make these great areas again. Strong agriculture employs fewer than 300,000 people. Mining employs 300,000 people, manufacturing 881,000in construction, a bit larger. But that's only 20% of the workforce. Force who's going to save the rest of the country? We didn't get a mention of, say, the people working in healthcare there. The biggest number employed by 2.3 million. Nothing about the education people. 1.3 million. Professional services. Another 1.3. So really it's a harking back like we are talking about where Australia, the Australian economy was 50 years. 60 years ago when Bob Menzies was watching a Holden FJ roll off the, uh, off the the plant down in Fishermans Bend in Melbourne. It's really interesting in what he's trying to hark into, and also papering over the fact that there is a lot of there's absence, a lot of detail.

Yeah, that's what I found interesting about that. Um, that claim or that sort of the generality of it, that all of these industries, they're just going to grow somehow magically, without any real policy detail, and they're going to fund all of the things that we need to fund. And, you know, the problem of the structural deficit. David, let's talk about the sort of vibe of the speech before we were on air. Shane and I were sort of talking about how at the beginning it was a little bit dark because he sort of was talking about Australia under labor, and he was saying that aspiration has turned to anxiety, National confidence has turned to uncertainty. So he did paint a little bit of a scary picture. Did it come out more hopeful? What was the overall atmosphere of the speech?

Yeah, that's what I found interesting about that. Um, that claim or that sort of the generality of it, that all of these industries, they're just going to grow somehow magically, without any real policy detail, and they're going to fund all of the things that we need to fund. And, you know, the problem of the structural deficit. David, let's talk about the sort of vibe of the speech before we were on air. Shane and I were sort of talking about how at the beginning it was a little bit dark because he sort of was talking about Australia under labor, and he was saying that aspiration has turned to anxiety, National confidence has turned to uncertainty. So he did paint a little bit of a scary picture. Did it come out more hopeful? What was the overall atmosphere of the speech?

Oh, I think in these speeches you have to offer hope. At the end. You have to offer a better Australia as your proposition going into the election. So I think the speech ticked off on that. It's a fundamental requirement in the budget reply speech, but it was overwhelmingly negative in terms of the picture it painted of Australia today and this urgent need to change direction. And he did lay it on pretty thick.

Oh, I think in these speeches you have to offer hope. At the end. You have to offer a better Australia as your proposition going into the election. So I think the speech ticked off on that. It's a fundamental requirement in the budget reply speech, but it was overwhelmingly negative in terms of the picture it painted of Australia today and this urgent need to change direction. And he did lay it on pretty thick.

Now every election is important, but this election does matter more than others in recent history. It is a sliding doors moment for our nation.

Now every election is important, but this election does matter more than others in recent history. It is a sliding doors moment for our nation.

But he didn't have dramatic new policies to claim a quick turnaround. So it was a funny combination of some of the kind of rhetoric that we're accustomed to from Peter Dutton, negative rhetoric about how bad the government's been and about how bad they've left Australia without enough detail about what he would do instead, even on migration. We're now meant to wait for later in the campaign to find out what his net overseas migration target will be. Um, so there's some vagueness there. Um, but let's face it, he's in a fluid situation, I think. Um, he was sometimes hesitant in his delivery of the speech as well. And there were signs that there were some late changes made. There were some things in the draft speech that we received under embargo, which then he didn't say. And there were things that he added to the speech. That's a sign of late changes and a process where there's been some editing of the message, and I can understand that for a clear reason. Late on Thursday, it became very clear from Labour briefing that Anthony Albanese was going to call the election early on Friday. We began to get more clarity about Anthony Albanese's plans, even to the point where at around the same time we were getting a draft copy of Peter Dutton's speech. I was getting an indication that the election would be on May 3rd. So in that situation, Peter Dutton's not the only part of the news story is he. And I think in that situation, when they know that the election is about to be called, they know not to put all their policy announcements into this one speech on Thursday night, because there's still some time to go in the election campaign.

But he didn't have dramatic new policies to claim a quick turnaround. So it was a funny combination of some of the kind of rhetoric that we're accustomed to from Peter Dutton, negative rhetoric about how bad the government's been and about how bad they've left Australia without enough detail about what he would do instead, even on migration. We're now meant to wait for later in the campaign to find out what his net overseas migration target will be. Um, so there's some vagueness there. Um, but let's face it, he's in a fluid situation, I think. Um, he was sometimes hesitant in his delivery of the speech as well. And there were signs that there were some late changes made. There were some things in the draft speech that we received under embargo, which then he didn't say. And there were things that he added to the speech. That's a sign of late changes and a process where there's been some editing of the message, and I can understand that for a clear reason. Late on Thursday, it became very clear from Labour briefing that Anthony Albanese was going to call the election early on Friday. We began to get more clarity about Anthony Albanese's plans, even to the point where at around the same time we were getting a draft copy of Peter Dutton's speech. I was getting an indication that the election would be on May 3rd. So in that situation, Peter Dutton's not the only part of the news story is he. And I think in that situation, when they know that the election is about to be called, they know not to put all their policy announcements into this one speech on Thursday night, because there's still some time to go in the election campaign.

I just want to add, Jackie, and this goes to what we didn't hear. Like there's this commitment right near the end of the speech about we will announce significant funding, extra funding to defense. And you go. Yep. Within two paragraphs, he'd moved on to schools. And so it's a really unusual structure. We go from we're going to save the country from, as he says, asymmetric. We need asymmetric capabilities to deter a larger adversary. And within 25 seconds, he's then talking about we need to restore a creek, a curriculum that teaches core fundamentals. And they are critical thinking, responsible citizenship and common sense. I wish I had a class at high school at Cootamundra High in common sense. I may have got further in the world than just being an economic journalist, but it was such a, um, at such an interesting combination of defense into, uh, social, not social cohesion. This is about social unity and schools. It's really jarring.

I just want to add, Jackie, and this goes to what we didn't hear. Like there's this commitment right near the end of the speech about we will announce significant funding, extra funding to defense. And you go. Yep. Within two paragraphs, he'd moved on to schools. And so it's a really unusual structure. We go from we're going to save the country from, as he says, asymmetric. We need asymmetric capabilities to deter a larger adversary. And within 25 seconds, he's then talking about we need to restore a creek, a curriculum that teaches core fundamentals. And they are critical thinking, responsible citizenship and common sense. I wish I had a class at high school at Cootamundra High in common sense. I may have got further in the world than just being an economic journalist, but it was such a, um, at such an interesting combination of defense into, uh, social, not social cohesion. This is about social unity and schools. It's really jarring.

It moved across a lot of subjects very quickly, I thought. And one notable absence for me was, you know, we didn't really hear much about nuclear energy. We heard a lot about gas. And make sure that we have a gas supply, particularly in the eastern states, and that's going to bring down energy prices. But what did you think of that, David? No, no real detail on the nuclear plants.

It moved across a lot of subjects very quickly, I thought. And one notable absence for me was, you know, we didn't really hear much about nuclear energy. We heard a lot about gas. And make sure that we have a gas supply, particularly in the eastern states, and that's going to bring down energy prices. But what did you think of that, David? No, no real detail on the nuclear plants.

There has been this question in recent weeks about why they're not talking much more about nuclear. Um, they're clearly aware of the electoral or potential for electoral blowback. The gas policy itself is something that I think does cut through, in a sense better than nuclear. It's Australian gas. For Australians, that'll be a popular message for people who have concerns about how much gas is being shipped off to overseas customers, when they want lower prices for their winter heating here at home. The great complexity there is how he tells gas companies, sorry, you can't sell that gas on the spot market and make a huge profit because I'm going to force you to sell it in Australia at a lower price. so there's a lot to be worked through on how that actually works and whether it can be achieved, but I think it does get into a big environmental, uh, fight that he is ready and willing to have about shutting down the environmental defenders office, stopping the agitators from blocking new gas projects and unleashing more gas across the country for the domestic market. Some people love that idea, but a lot of people hate it.

There has been this question in recent weeks about why they're not talking much more about nuclear. Um, they're clearly aware of the electoral or potential for electoral blowback. The gas policy itself is something that I think does cut through, in a sense better than nuclear. It's Australian gas. For Australians, that'll be a popular message for people who have concerns about how much gas is being shipped off to overseas customers, when they want lower prices for their winter heating here at home. The great complexity there is how he tells gas companies, sorry, you can't sell that gas on the spot market and make a huge profit because I'm going to force you to sell it in Australia at a lower price. so there's a lot to be worked through on how that actually works and whether it can be achieved, but I think it does get into a big environmental, uh, fight that he is ready and willing to have about shutting down the environmental defenders office, stopping the agitators from blocking new gas projects and unleashing more gas across the country for the domestic market. Some people love that idea, but a lot of people hate it.

Let's just talk very quickly now about the personal pitch that Dutton made right at the end of the speech. It was very much a pre-election budget reply. It couldn't be more pre-election. It's literally on the eve of it being called. But Dutton got a bit personal towards the end. He said that he's going to lead with conviction, not walk both sides of the street. You know, very pointed reference to his, um, assessment of Albanese's character. He said that he'd been a policeman, that he'd protected the community, especially women and children. He'd been a small business owner. He came from a working class family, and he's a parent and, you know, believes that family is the most important unit in society. I mean, that made him a pretty relatable sort of everyman, don't you think, Shane?

Let's just talk very quickly now about the personal pitch that Dutton made right at the end of the speech. It was very much a pre-election budget reply. It couldn't be more pre-election. It's literally on the eve of it being called. But Dutton got a bit personal towards the end. He said that he's going to lead with conviction, not walk both sides of the street. You know, very pointed reference to his, um, assessment of Albanese's character. He said that he'd been a policeman, that he'd protected the community, especially women and children. He'd been a small business owner. He came from a working class family, and he's a parent and, you know, believes that family is the most important unit in society. I mean, that made him a pretty relatable sort of everyman, don't you think, Shane?

Yeah. And and that's where he was talking, say, about his wife Kirrily. And he. There was the only joke. It was a good joke talking about Curly's at home. She's had surgery on her wrist. She may be watching this or she may be watching MAFs.

Yeah. And and that's where he was talking, say, about his wife Kirrily. And he. There was the only joke. It was a good joke talking about Curly's at home. She's had surgery on her wrist. She may be watching this or she may be watching MAFs.

I want to give a shout out to curly tonight, who's just had surgery on her wrist and is at home watching with Rebecca, Harry and Tom. Unless maths clashes with this broadcast.

I want to give a shout out to curly tonight, who's just had surgery on her wrist and is at home watching with Rebecca, Harry and Tom. Unless maths clashes with this broadcast.

Because he does have a sense of humour. It's just not. It's not very often on display. Um, and so you're right, like I found it interesting, as David mentioned, he was going to finish up by referencing John Howard, but the John Howard reference got got dropped.

Because he does have a sense of humour. It's just not. It's not very often on display. Um, and so you're right, like I found it interesting, as David mentioned, he was going to finish up by referencing John Howard, but the John Howard reference got got dropped.

It was a really it was a personal pitch. pet. It was like, you know, this is who you're going to be voting in. This is the kind of man that I am and is. This is the kind of man you want for Prime Minister. Vote for me. Right.

It was a really it was a personal pitch. pet. It was like, you know, this is who you're going to be voting in. This is the kind of man that I am and is. This is the kind of man you want for Prime Minister. Vote for me. Right.

So I regarded some of that as well. It's an essential element of the budget reply speech, telling Australians more about who he is as a human being. You've got to do that because you're seeking the highest office in the land. But, you know, let's face it, he goes hard against Anthony Albanese and often Anthony Albanese goes hard against him. So we saw that personal contrast. In some ways it was a lot of the usual hard rhetoric we get from from Peter Dutton. Um, we heard we heard more of that with only a judicious amount of new policy.

So I regarded some of that as well. It's an essential element of the budget reply speech, telling Australians more about who he is as a human being. You've got to do that because you're seeking the highest office in the land. But, you know, let's face it, he goes hard against Anthony Albanese and often Anthony Albanese goes hard against him. So we saw that personal contrast. In some ways it was a lot of the usual hard rhetoric we get from from Peter Dutton. Um, we heard we heard more of that with only a judicious amount of new policy.

Let's just talk really quickly through the budget measures. Obviously, the tax cut was the only real sort of new thing the opposition has already said that they are going to oppose it, and if it is legislated and they win government, they will repeal it. It is a pre-election budget, whether we like it or not or whether it's typical or not. David, is it likely to contain enough promises and enough largesse to win over the public as we go into an election campaign?

Let's just talk really quickly through the budget measures. Obviously, the tax cut was the only real sort of new thing the opposition has already said that they are going to oppose it, and if it is legislated and they win government, they will repeal it. It is a pre-election budget, whether we like it or not or whether it's typical or not. David, is it likely to contain enough promises and enough largesse to win over the public as we go into an election campaign?

I think it's a pretty good foundation as a political document, and that's when you look at it more broadly, not just focusing on the new news from Tuesday night, which was the tax cut. When you think about it in terms of the $8.5 billion for Medicare. The action on student debt. There's $2.5 billion for aged care across the board. There's a range of measures on childcare, for instance, on urgent care clinics, a school funding deal with the states, hospital funding agreements and so forth. Across the board. You see a pretty good foundation there to go to the election. And bear in mind, I don't think that they were ever set on the election being turned on the budget night itself, because if if they hadn't had a budget, they would have had an economic statement with the tax cut. Um, and there's a view within the government that they need weeks and weeks and weeks for this message to sink in throughout the electorate. So I think the days are gone where you get a major announcement just two weeks out from Election Day, because people are now voting early at those pre-poll places. So you've really got to get ahead of the game with your message and let it sink in over the full length of the election campaign. And that's why I think most of it's out there now. I have great concerns about the state of the budget underneath all this, whether the spending is affordable, whether the deficits can really continue in the way that they're meant to continue for the next decade. But if you look at it as a political document, it's actually a reasonable foundation for the campaign.

I think it's a pretty good foundation as a political document, and that's when you look at it more broadly, not just focusing on the new news from Tuesday night, which was the tax cut. When you think about it in terms of the $8.5 billion for Medicare. The action on student debt. There's $2.5 billion for aged care across the board. There's a range of measures on childcare, for instance, on urgent care clinics, a school funding deal with the states, hospital funding agreements and so forth. Across the board. You see a pretty good foundation there to go to the election. And bear in mind, I don't think that they were ever set on the election being turned on the budget night itself, because if if they hadn't had a budget, they would have had an economic statement with the tax cut. Um, and there's a view within the government that they need weeks and weeks and weeks for this message to sink in throughout the electorate. So I think the days are gone where you get a major announcement just two weeks out from Election Day, because people are now voting early at those pre-poll places. So you've really got to get ahead of the game with your message and let it sink in over the full length of the election campaign. And that's why I think most of it's out there now. I have great concerns about the state of the budget underneath all this, whether the spending is affordable, whether the deficits can really continue in the way that they're meant to continue for the next decade. But if you look at it as a political document, it's actually a reasonable foundation for the campaign.

Shane, the coalition has made a lot of criticism over the deficit, which for this financial year, it's about 1.5% of GDP. How bad is the deficit historically?

Shane, the coalition has made a lot of criticism over the deficit, which for this financial year, it's about 1.5% of GDP. How bad is the deficit historically?

So say the forecast is 42.1 for the coming year. That puts you in the top 1011 budget deficits of all time.

So say the forecast is 42.1 for the coming year. That puts you in the top 1011 budget deficits of all time.

Okay.

Okay.

So it is a substantial deficit by. I actually have doubts whether that's what you'll end up with because some of the assumptions around commodity prices, they are the ones that have been changing so much and delivering like delivered Josh Frydenberg a lot of money and it's delivered, uh, Jim Chalmers a hell of a lot of money that hadn't been expected. So I will bet with you now that we will not end up with a budget deficit of $42.1 billion. I, I always say like, everyone gets fascinated. We've got all these figures, but there's always a huge asterisk because that's not where we end up. It's the general vibe of things that we're looking for. Okay. And that's where the issue is that there is these series of deficits And unless there is a change in tax policy, if there's a lift in terms of general economic policy to get the economy growing faster, that would bring down some costs and also lift revenues, then you are stuck in this world of ongoing debts and deficit.

So it is a substantial deficit by. I actually have doubts whether that's what you'll end up with because some of the assumptions around commodity prices, they are the ones that have been changing so much and delivering like delivered Josh Frydenberg a lot of money and it's delivered, uh, Jim Chalmers a hell of a lot of money that hadn't been expected. So I will bet with you now that we will not end up with a budget deficit of $42.1 billion. I, I always say like, everyone gets fascinated. We've got all these figures, but there's always a huge asterisk because that's not where we end up. It's the general vibe of things that we're looking for. Okay. And that's where the issue is that there is these series of deficits And unless there is a change in tax policy, if there's a lift in terms of general economic policy to get the economy growing faster, that would bring down some costs and also lift revenues, then you are stuck in this world of ongoing debts and deficit.

David, where do you think voter sentiment is at with that? Because the coalition is obviously very critical of Labor's economic management. They say the deficits are too large. They've intimated that they will make some cuts to the public service. The government's intimated or strongly implied that they're planning a whole bunch of other cuts that they're not telling us about. Do you think average voters are just going to be like, look, we're in a cost of living crisis. I don't care too much about the deficit at the moment. I just want the hip pocket relief. Or will they be looking at things more holistically?

David, where do you think voter sentiment is at with that? Because the coalition is obviously very critical of Labor's economic management. They say the deficits are too large. They've intimated that they will make some cuts to the public service. The government's intimated or strongly implied that they're planning a whole bunch of other cuts that they're not telling us about. Do you think average voters are just going to be like, look, we're in a cost of living crisis. I don't care too much about the deficit at the moment. I just want the hip pocket relief. Or will they be looking at things more holistically?

I think it's more about the hip pocket relief and not worrying about the bottom line. And partly that's we're coming out of the pandemic era where there was just incredible amounts of spending and we haven't returned to the focus on, you know, what you might call budget discipline and fiscal discipline from the era before the pandemic. But there's another thing as well, which is that a lot of households are really hurting from the cost of living crisis, and living standards have gone backwards, have not been rising, and therefore there's a greater expectation on the government to help those families. And that makes it very hard for the government to say any government to say sorry, but we're not helping with that because we've got to focus on the budget. Bottom line, you can see this across debate. The budget bottom line does just it just does not matter in the way that it did a decade ago or so.

I think it's more about the hip pocket relief and not worrying about the bottom line. And partly that's we're coming out of the pandemic era where there was just incredible amounts of spending and we haven't returned to the focus on, you know, what you might call budget discipline and fiscal discipline from the era before the pandemic. But there's another thing as well, which is that a lot of households are really hurting from the cost of living crisis, and living standards have gone backwards, have not been rising, and therefore there's a greater expectation on the government to help those families. And that makes it very hard for the government to say any government to say sorry, but we're not helping with that because we've got to focus on the budget. Bottom line, you can see this across debate. The budget bottom line does just it just does not matter in the way that it did a decade ago or so.

Looming over this entire budget is the very large and somewhat ominous presence of President Donald Trump in the white House. His administration is set to introduce more tariffs on April the 2nd. They're calling that Liberation Day. Trump, of course, has not mentioned by name in any of the budget documents. But where does he show up in terms of Economic and fiscal projections or concerns. Shane.

Looming over this entire budget is the very large and somewhat ominous presence of President Donald Trump in the white House. His administration is set to introduce more tariffs on April the 2nd. They're calling that Liberation Day. Trump, of course, has not mentioned by name in any of the budget documents. But where does he show up in terms of Economic and fiscal projections or concerns. Shane.

You can see it in the forecasts around growth for the US and China. That's the the most obvious aspects. And it is like we're talking on a day where Trump has confirmed that he's going to impose 25% tariffs on the automobile industry, which has a huge impact on Canada and Mexico. If you're in Treasury, you're trying to work out what does that mean to our most important markets. So an extra tariff on Chinese cars like BYD is the biggest. I think they're now technically the biggest electric car manufacturer in the world. Their chances of getting exports into the United States have now been changed because of a Trump tariff. Does that mean we end up with cheaper BYD vehicles in Australia? That's why for Treasury and any economists trying to work out Trump, and what he will deliver on Liberation Day is so difficult. And so that's why, again, huge asterisks over all the economic forecasts in this budget. All the bottom line forecasts. And it's also an asterisks over whatever Angus Taylor and Peter Dutton propose because and it's not a fault of them because we are in a such an uncertain period.

You can see it in the forecasts around growth for the US and China. That's the the most obvious aspects. And it is like we're talking on a day where Trump has confirmed that he's going to impose 25% tariffs on the automobile industry, which has a huge impact on Canada and Mexico. If you're in Treasury, you're trying to work out what does that mean to our most important markets. So an extra tariff on Chinese cars like BYD is the biggest. I think they're now technically the biggest electric car manufacturer in the world. Their chances of getting exports into the United States have now been changed because of a Trump tariff. Does that mean we end up with cheaper BYD vehicles in Australia? That's why for Treasury and any economists trying to work out Trump, and what he will deliver on Liberation Day is so difficult. And so that's why, again, huge asterisks over all the economic forecasts in this budget. All the bottom line forecasts. And it's also an asterisks over whatever Angus Taylor and Peter Dutton propose because and it's not a fault of them because we are in a such an uncertain period.

Could I just add just a quick thing on that? One of the things in the budget lock up is you get to talk to officials, and I think it's important to convey, I guess, what you might call just the the sense of concern from officials. It may not be written in the budget document, but they're very concerned about the state of the world economy in the second half of this year. And, of course, there's total unpredictability about what happens because of Donald Trump. But let's not underestimate the level of concern about how bad things could get. And I don't think that's fully reflected in the budget numbers simply because there's so much that's unknowable.

Could I just add just a quick thing on that? One of the things in the budget lock up is you get to talk to officials, and I think it's important to convey, I guess, what you might call just the the sense of concern from officials. It may not be written in the budget document, but they're very concerned about the state of the world economy in the second half of this year. And, of course, there's total unpredictability about what happens because of Donald Trump. But let's not underestimate the level of concern about how bad things could get. And I don't think that's fully reflected in the budget numbers simply because there's so much that's unknowable.

Gentlemen, thank you both very much. As we have just heard, the election will most probably be called on Friday. So we're going to be seeing everybody again very soon.

Gentlemen, thank you both very much. As we have just heard, the election will most probably be called on Friday. So we're going to be seeing everybody again very soon.

Cheers, jacki.

Cheers, jacki.

Always a pleasure, jacki.

Always a pleasure, jacki.

Today's episode of Inside Politics was produced by Tammy Mills with technical assistance from Debby Harrington and Josh towers. Our head of audio is Tom McKendrick. Inside politics is a production of The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. To support our journalism, subscribe to us by visiting The Age or smh.com.au. And sign up for our newsletter to receive a comprehensive summary of the week's most important news, analysis and insights in your inbox every week. Links are in the show. Notes. I'm Jacqueline Maley. This is inside politics. Thank you for listening.

Today's episode of Inside Politics was produced by Tammy Mills with technical assistance from Debby Harrington and Josh towers. Our head of audio is Tom McKendrick. Inside politics is a production of The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. To support our journalism, subscribe to us by visiting The Age or smh.com.au. And sign up for our newsletter to receive a comprehensive summary of the week's most important news, analysis and insights in your inbox every week. Links are in the show. Notes. I'm Jacqueline Maley. This is inside politics. Thank you for listening.