Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, we speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign.
Read More at Bloomberg.com:
https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS
https://bloom.bg/3X54rNP

Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, we speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign. Read More at Bloomberg.com: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-02/betting-on-the-us-election-political-wagers-soar-as-chaotic-race-draws-gamblers?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article">https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-08-15/economy-s-resilience-may-shift-the-trump-harris-campaign-debate?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article">https://bloom.bg/3X54rNP</a>

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Tuesday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.

Odd Lots

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday. 

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/1b51f019-1288-4f92-b66e-b1ce00e08b89/transcript

The Federal Reserve appears to be ready to pivot into rate cutting mode. Inflation has come down significantly, and the unemployment rate has been trending upward for most of the year. In fact, in the most recent Non-Farm Payrolls report, the headline unemployment rate of 4.3% triggered the so-called "Sahm Rule," which has been a historically reliable signal that the US is already in a recession. So are we in a recession? Could the rule be wrong this time due the unique features of this economic cycle? How should the Fed weigh the risks that we see in front of us? On this episode of Lots More, we speak with the rule's creator, Clauda Sahm, Bloomberg Opinion contributor and the chief economist at New Century Advisors. She explains why the signal this time could be misleading, but also why — regardless of whether we're in a recession or not — the Fed must be on guard for a weakening labor market.

Read More: 
My Recession Rule Was Meant to Be Broken
What’s the Sahm Rule? Is It Warning of a Recession?

Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

The Federal Reserve appears to be ready to pivot into rate cutting mode. Inflation has come down significantly, and the unemployment rate has been trending upward for most of the year. In fact, in the most recent Non-Farm Payrolls report, the headline unemployment rate of 4.3% triggered the so-called "Sahm Rule," which has been a historically reliable signal that the US is already in a recession. So are we in a recession? Could the rule be wrong this time due the unique features of this economic cycle? How should the Fed weigh the risks that we see in front of us? On this episode of Lots More, we speak with the rule's creator, Clauda Sahm, Bloomberg Opinion contributor and the chief economist at New Century Advisors. She explains why the signal this time could be misleading, but also why — regardless of whether we're in a recession or not — the Fed must be on guard for a weakening labor market. Read More: <a href="https://bloom.bg/4fFotWB" data-destination="https://bloom.bg/4fFotWB">My Recession Rule Was Meant to Be Broken</a> <a href="https://bloom.bg/4drklaU" data-destination="https://bloom.bg/4drklaU">What’s the Sahm Rule? Is It Warning of a Recession?</a> Only <a href="http://Bloomberg.com" data-inline-card="" data-card-data="">Bloomberg.com</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a>

Lots More With Claudia Sahm on What the Sahm Rule Is Saying Now

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/73b54320-a924-454b-86d6-b1cd014d09d2/transcript

The past few years have thrown up a number of potential weaknesses in the American economy. There've been disruptions to supply chains stemming from the global pandemic. There are concerns about the availability of strategically important items like semiconductors and vaccines. Meanwhile, Russia's invasion of Ukraine roiled global commodity markets and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has created even more complications for shipping. So how is the US thinking about economic security and what have we learned? In this episode, we speak with Daleep Singh, Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council in the Biden Administration. We talk about how the government identifies areas of potential shortages and chokepoints, and what it does to try to get ahead of them.

Mentioned in this Episode:
Introducing the Chokepoint Economy, When Shortages Start to Matter

Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

The past few years have thrown up a number of potential weaknesses in the American economy. There've been disruptions to supply chains stemming from the global pandemic. There are concerns about the availability of strategically important items like semiconductors and vaccines. Meanwhile, Russia's invasion of Ukraine roiled global commodity markets and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has created even more complications for shipping. So how is the US thinking about economic security and what have we learned? In this episode, we speak with Daleep Singh, Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council in the Biden Administration. We talk about how the government identifies areas of potential shortages and chokepoints, and what it does to try to get ahead of them. Mentioned in this Episode: <a href="https://bloom.bg/3ytP2gJ">Introducing the Chokepoint Economy, When Shortages Start to Matter</a>
Only <a href="http://Bloomberg.com" data-inline-card="" data-card-data="">Bloomberg.com</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a>

How the White House Thinks About Economic Security

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/ecddec3a-42ce-4b63-a8e6-b1cc0142667a/transcript

When it comes to financing the US government's borrowing needs, the Treasury Department has some discretion in how it's done. It can sell 30-year Treasuries. It can sell 10-year Treasuries. It can sell a lot of three-month T-bills. Every quarter, it's always going to be some kind of mix. And in theory, the decisions about where on the curve it issues debt can have effects on the market and the economy, since different instruments have different liquidity and risk profiles. Recently, the Treasury has come under criticism for issuing a lot of short-dated debt. Some economists have dubbed it "Activist Treasury Issuance," with the allegation that Janet Yellen & Co. are purposely trying to counteract the impact of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening by issuing less debt at the long end of the curve. So is there anything to these criticisms? And how exactly does the Treasury go about making these decisions anyway? On this episode, we speak to a dissenting voice who argues that the Treasury has approached the task using the same methods it has always employed. Amar Reganti is a fixed-income strategist at Wellington Management and Hartford Funds, who earlier in his career spent four years at Treasury in the Office of Debt Management. He walks us through the Treasury's general issuance approach, why the funding mix changes over time, why it's been issuing more at the short end in recent quarters, and the overall strategy the government will use to fund what the Congressional Budget Office estimates will be another $20 trillion worth of borrowing over the next decade. 

Read More at Bloomberg.com:

Mnuchin Says It's Time to Kill the Treasury Bond He Created
The Trillion Dollar Legal Memo: FOIA Files

Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

When it comes to financing the US government's borrowing needs, the Treasury Department has some discretion in how it's done. It can sell 30-year Treasuries. It can sell 10-year Treasuries. It can sell a lot of three-month T-bills. Every quarter, it's always going to be some kind of mix. And in theory, the decisions about where on the curve it issues debt can have effects on the market and the economy, since different instruments have different liquidity and risk profiles. Recently, the Treasury has come under criticism for issuing a lot of short-dated debt. Some economists have dubbed it "Activist Treasury Issuance," with the allegation that Janet Yellen &amp; Co. are purposely trying to counteract the impact of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening by issuing less debt at the long end of the curve. So is there anything to these criticisms? And how exactly does the Treasury go about making these decisions anyway? On this episode, we speak to a dissenting voice who argues that the Treasury has approached the task using the same methods it has always employed. Amar Reganti is a fixed-income strategist at Wellington Management and Hartford Funds, who earlier in his career spent four years at Treasury in the Office of Debt Management. He walks us through the Treasury's general issuance approach, why the funding mix changes over time, why it's been issuing more at the short end in recent quarters, and the overall strategy the government will use to fund what the Congressional Budget Office estimates will be another $20 trillion worth of borrowing over the next decade. 
Read More at Bloomberg.com: <a href="https://bloom.bg/4dCSKDg">Mnuchin Says It's Time to Kill the Treasury Bond He Created</a> <a href="https://bloom.bg/3SN5TBR">The Trillion Dollar Legal Memo: FOIA Files</a>
Only <a href="http://Bloomberg.com" data-inline-card="" data-card-data="">Bloomberg.com</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a>

How the US Treasury Will Fund the Next $20 Trillion in Debt

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/b471257a-5555-499a-b7e6-b1c7013a92d9/transcript

Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting

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