Adam Posen Thinks Things Could Get Very 'Messy' for the Fed

Kevin Warsh gave a hawkish speech at this year's annual Kansas City Fed Symposium in Jackson Hole, but that doesn't mean the challenges are over. Will the Fed actually pull the trigger on rate hikes? What happens if the central bank doesn't act quickly enough to curb inflation? And how exactly will…

Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin on the Surprisingly Resilient Real Economy

The implications of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech are pretty clear: Traders expect a rate hike given the hawkish hints littered in his address, largely focused on inflation. There are still a number of open questions and Warsh's lack of forward guidance does not exactly lend clarity t…

Austan Goolsbee Is Worried the Economy Is Overheating

Inflation remains high and the 2% target is farther away than it was this time last year. There are signs all over that the economy is overheating — the strange labor market where hiring and firing remains low, while GDP is growing, but mostly due to AI and the data center buildout — and Chicago Fe…

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid on the First Jackson Hole of the Warsh Era

We are back in Jackson Hole! And this year's Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City symposium on monetary policy might be one of the most interesting editions in years. It marks the first under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, and Fed observers all over the world will be closely watching his Friday speec…

The Nigerian Industrial Behemoth That Could Reshape the African Economy

Earlier in August, it was reported that Nigeria's Dangote Refinery secured a $1 billion underwriting for its upcoming stock market listing, which is set to become Africa's largest IPO. Indeed, the whole the continent has seen lots of economic growth in the last few years: According to the United Na…

Jasmine Sun on What the AI Industry Got Wrong About the Public Backlash

Within the AI industry, even the builders of it have been very anxious about the technology. They've talked for years about its potential to create destabilizing job losses. They even spend a lot of time thinking about rogue AI that could lead to human extinction. But for all their anxiety, they mi…

Nick Bostrom on What Happens if AI Solves All of Our Problems

The philosopher Nick Bostrom was one of the first thinkers who mapped out the existential risk of AI. In his 2014 book, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, he delved into various scenarios — like the now-famous “paperclip maximizer” — to show the dangers that unfettered and highly intell…

What the OpenAI-Hugging Face Hack Really Tells Us About AI Danger

Scenarios that used to be the domain of sci-fi writers are coming true. We have machines that can talk. We have machines that are capable of ignoring the intent of their creators. And we have machines that are capable of planning and coordinating with other machines to deceive their creators. All o…

A Historic El Niño Is Coming That Could Cost the World Trillions

Every few years, weather nerds and agriculture analysts will talk about an upcoming El Niño, and then they mostly pass by with relatively few headlines. But sometimes El Niños end up being massively destabilizing -- leading to devastating droughts, flooding, and other catastrophes. And this year's …

Trucking Is Booming Again, And Drivers Aren't Happy About It

In the last year, freight companies have seen a significant upturn in the business. Volumes are up. Billing is up. And in addition to growing demand, we've also seen new constraints on the supply side, with the administration cracking down on who is even allowed on the road. As we know, trucking is…