This week on Lots More, we speak with Claudia Sahm, the former Federal Reserve economist and founder of Sahm Consulting, about the recent uptick in the US unemployment rate. We discuss the implications for the Sahm Rule, the early recession indicator she discovered and which has been a hot topic since the most recent Nonfarm Payrolls report. We also talk about data challenges for economists, the prospect of recession, and dealing with online commenters.

This week on Lots More, we speak with Claudia Sahm, the former Federal Reserve economist and founder of Sahm Consulting, about the recent uptick in the US unemployment rate. We discuss the implications for <a href="bbg://news/stories/S3RM0GDWX2PS" data-cke-saved-href="bbg://news/stories/S3RM0GDWX2PS" data-web-url="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-07/one-highly-accurate-recession-indicator-could-be-wrong-this-time">the Sahm Rule</a>, the early recession indicator she discovered and which has been a hot topic since the most recent Nonfarm Payrolls report. We also talk about data challenges for economists, the prospect of recession, and dealing with online commenters.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Tuesday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.

Odd Lots

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday.

On Bloomberg&rsquo;s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday.

Lots More with Claudia Sahm

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/b30a624d-2d7b-496e-a8f1-b0b6000aeaab/transcript

Last year, when we talked to Martin Wolf, the global order seemed like it was being upended after President Trump unveiled his sweeping tariffs against nearly every US trading partner. A lot has happened since then. In fact, April 2025 seems almost quaint when compared to 2026 so far, from the Supreme Court's tariff ruling to the US-Israel war with Iran. The war's effect on the world's economy is at once stunning and utterly strange: even as the prices of major commodities — oil chief among them — rise, the markets seem unaffected, closing at record levels in recent weeks. Today we speak with Wolf, the chief economics commentator for the Financial Times, about all this chaos and why, so far, it seems disconnected from the logic of the market. There is, he says, a great deal of ruin in the world economy, but growth remains a constant fact of life. Why is that? There's no straightforward answer, but to begin understanding how we got here, Wolf takes us to the early 20th century and paints us a picture of the world after the two World Wars. We also talk about the "terrifying" power that the US wields over the globe, how a fragmented Europe is navigating anxious relationships with both the US and China, the Faustian bargain AI represents, and much more.

Read more:
Oil Inventories Falling at Record Pace on Iran War, IEA Says
Undersea Internet Cable Projects Are Getting Tangled in the Iran War

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Join the conversation:discord.gg/oddlots

Last year, when we talked to Martin Wolf, the global order seemed like it was being upended after President Trump unveiled his sweeping tariffs against nearly every US trading partner. A lot has happened since then. In fact, April 2025 seems almost quaint when compared to 2026 so far, from the Supreme Court's tariff ruling to the US-Israel war with Iran. The war's effect on the world's economy is at once stunning and utterly strange: even as the prices of major commodities &mdash; oil chief among them &mdash; rise, the markets seem unaffected, closing at record levels in recent weeks. Today we speak with Wolf, the chief economics commentator for the Financial Times, about all this chaos and why, so far, it seems disconnected from the logic of the market. There is, he says, a great deal of ruin in the world economy, but growth remains a constant fact of life. Why is that? There's no straightforward answer, but to begin understanding how we got here, Wolf takes us to the early 20th century and paints us a picture of the world after the two World Wars. We also talk about the "terrifying" power that the US wields over the globe, how a fragmented Europe is navigating anxious relationships with both the US and China, the Faustian bargain AI represents, and much more.
Read more: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-13/oil-inventories-fall-at-record-pace-on-iran-war-shock-iea-says?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Oil Inventories Falling at Record Pace on Iran War, IEA Says</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-13/iran-war-delays-undersea-internet-cable-projects-in-persian-gulf?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Undersea Internet Cable Projects Are Getting Tangled in the Iran War</a>
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<a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a> Join the conversation: <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">discord.gg/oddlots</a>

Martin Wolf on the 'Terrifying' Superpower That the US Wields

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/c68ed904-5c11-44f9-909c-b44a00200c14/transcript

In 2006, then-Senator Ted Stevens coined an infamous term for how to understand the internet: It's a "series of tubes." The funny thing is, that's a fairly accurate description. Underneath the world's oceans, miles and miles of fiber optic-cables send packets of information from one location to the next, serving as the backbone of the internet as know it. This infrastructure is delicate, too: Memorably, a 2022 volcanic eruption cut off the island of Tonga from web access for an extended period of time. Journalist Samanth Subramanian is the author of The Web Beneath the Waves: The Fragile Cables That Connect Our World, a book that explains, in detail, that the internet is not, and has never been, truly weightless or wireless. In fact, the system in place right now is pretty old school and resembles the telegraph cable network of yore. We talk to Subramanian about the strange contradictions of the undersea cable system, how much basic marine geography — like the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal — informs where cables are laid, and how hard it is protect this vulnerable and vital infrastructure.

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In 2006, then-Senator Ted Stevens coined an infamous term for how to understand the internet: It's a "series of tubes." The funny thing is, that's a fairly accurate description. Underneath the world's oceans, miles and miles of fiber optic-cables send packets of information from one location to the next, serving as the backbone of the internet as know it. This infrastructure is delicate, too: Memorably, a 2022 volcanic eruption cut off the island of Tonga from web access for an extended period of time. Journalist Samanth Subramanian is the author of The Web Beneath the Waves: The Fragile Cables That Connect Our World, a book that explains, in detail, that the internet is not, and has never been, truly weightless or wireless. In fact, the system in place right now is pretty old school and resembles the telegraph cable network of yore. We talk to Subramanian about the strange contradictions of the undersea cable system, how much basic marine geography &mdash; like the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal &mdash; informs where cables are laid, and how hard it is protect this vulnerable and vital infrastructure.
<a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-link-cookie="1" data-destination="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a> Join the conversation: <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-destination="https://discord.gg/oddlots">discord.gg/oddlots</a>

Samanth Subramanian on the Undersea Cables That Keep the Internet Alive

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/d05e23d4-18e1-442f-8953-b4480146b311/transcript

Ever since Covid, central banks around the world have had the same problem. They have tools that are designed to modulate demand, but so many challenges have involved the supply side of the economy. Whether we're talking about supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine, and now the war in Iran, these are all issues for which monetary policy is of limited value. Of course, the temptation is to "look through" these events, recognizing the fact that these disruptions don't say much about the actual underlying state of the economy. But when we get one shock after another, it gets harder and harder to keep using words like "transitory." On this episode we speak with Megan Greene, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England. We talk about the compounding effects of all these shocks (including the trade war and Brexit), how she's thinking about the first- and second-order effects of each, and why for now, despite the underlying weakness of the UK economy, she remains squarely focused on the risks of higher inflation.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

Ever since Covid, central banks around the world have had the same problem. They have tools that are designed to modulate demand, but so many challenges have involved the supply side of the economy. Whether we're talking about supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine, and now the war in Iran, these are all issues for which monetary policy is of limited value. Of course, the temptation is to "look through" these events, recognizing the fact that these disruptions don't say much about the actual underlying state of the economy. But when we get one shock after another, it gets harder and harder to keep using words like "transitory." On this episode we speak with Megan Greene, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England. We talk about the compounding effects of all these shocks (including the trade war and Brexit), how she's thinking about the first- and second-order effects of each, and why for now, despite the underlying weakness of the UK economy, she remains squarely focused on the risks of higher inflation.
<a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-link-cookie="1" data-destination="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a> Join the conversation: <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-destination="https://discord.gg/oddlots">discord.gg/oddlots</a>

The Bank of England's Megan Greene on Monetary Policy in a World of Supply Shocks

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/a7009176-dd7f-474d-916a-b44700369509/transcript

Lots More with Claudia Sahm

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