We welcome back Dr. Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at Heinrich Foundation, Singapore, for a timely discussion on intensifying trade wars. We set the context by looking at the past decade of rising protectionism and the impact on the global economy. Deborah points out that despite all the frictions, global trade volume has increased. But at the same time, industry lobbying for protection has also risen, and the dream of creating numerous manufacturing jobs has remained largely unfulfilled. The irony is that protectionism, in today’s tech and automation-intensive production processes, rewards the capital owner much more than labour. We then think through the likely measures and possible retaliations under Trump 2.0. Later we move on to the state of various trade initiatives like CP-TPP and RCEP; Deborah highlights that much more needs to be done given the intensifying headwinds. We conclude with a fascinating discussion on the evolving nature of trade in goods vs services, diffused nature of ownership, and the various, specious national security arguments. Trade war is here to stay; analysts like Deborah are crucial in navigating through the resulting fog.

Deborah’s latest article: hinrichfoundation.com/research/article/trade-and-geopolitics/why-a-battle-to-define-connected-cars-matters/