Timothy Adams, President and CEO of the Institute of International Finance, brings his deep experience and expertise to Kopi Time. We begin with the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and his potential approach to monetary policy, including the challenges of balancing political pressure with institutional independence. We then discuss the state of monetary and fiscal policy, risks characterising the outlook, financial stability concerns, and the politics and economics around the USD and stablecoins. We end with Tim's views on the evolving geopolitical landscape and the need for middle powers to seek new partnerships and pragmatic positions on matters of national security and trade.

Timothy Adams, President and CEO of the Institute of International Finance, brings his deep experience and expertise to Kopi Time. We begin with the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and his potential approach to monetary policy, including the challenges of balancing political pressure with institutional independence. We then discuss the state of monetary and fiscal policy, risks characterising the outlook, financial stability concerns, and the politics and economics around the USD and stablecoins.&nbsp;We end with Tim's views on the evolving geopolitical landscape and the need for middle powers to seek new partnerships and pragmatic positions on matters of national security and trade.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

DBS Economics & Strategy

Kopi Time E171 - IIF's Tim Adams on the Fed, US Fiscal, & Financial Stability

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/7b080880-5a3f-492c-a01e-b3ee001fb4b3/transcript

We discuss energy market outlook with Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of energy market intelligence. We begin with the crude and refined product bottleneck created by the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and what it means for Asia and Europe. We then delve into the supply and demand responses since the Iran war began, especially with the way China and the US are dealing with the fallout. Vandana is bearish the supply side outlook even if the Strait were to re-open as part of another temporary ceasefire. We conclude by discussing the lessons from this crisis, from strategic reserves to wider supply base, from regional cooperation on resilient grids, storage, and pipelines to accelerate renewable energy production capacities. Vandana does not see the future as either/or; nations have to increase investments in the entire energy stack.

Clarification: Vandana notes that crude futures six months out and 12 months out are almost $15 and $20 lower respectively.

We discuss energy market outlook with Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of energy market intelligence. We begin with the crude and refined product bottleneck created by the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and what it means for Asia and Europe. We then delve into the supply and demand responses since the Iran war began, especially with the way China and the US are dealing with the fallout. Vandana is bearish the supply side outlook even if the Strait were to re-open as part of another temporary ceasefire. We conclude by discussing the lessons from this crisis, from strategic reserves to wider supply base, from regional cooperation on resilient grids, storage, and pipelines to accelerate renewable energy production capacities. Vandana does not see the future as either/or; nations have to increase investments in the entire energy stack.
Clarification: Vandana notes that crude futures six months out and 12 months out are almost $15 and $20 lower respectively.

Kopi Time E179: Energy markets with Vandana Hari

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/4529a5cc-b7d0-4df5-88f0-b4580017662d/transcript

Should AI be nationalised, or at least have a substantial part of its equity held by the public sector? I collaborated recently with author and economist Anthony Annett to delve into this issue. The resulting op-ed, published on Singapore’s Business Times (link here: https://bt.sg/g/DyLA), and the torrent of feedback we have received since it came out, is the subject of this Kopi Time episode. Tony and I go over the key arguments—public safety, strategic importance, distributional fairness, and common imperative, and respond to the various lines of arguments against them, from it’s too late, it’s not feasible, it will harm innovation, and the government is the problem, not the solution. By referring to relevant history of economic thought, experience with public ownership of strategic assets in the 20th century, and a common-sense risk management approach, we think our responses are adequate. You can be the judge.

Should AI be nationalised, or at least have a substantial part of its equity held by the public sector? I collaborated recently with author and economist Anthony Annett to delve into this issue. The resulting op-ed, published on Singapore&rsquo;s Business Times (link here: <a href="https://bt.sg/g/DyLA">https://bt.sg/g/DyLA</a>), and the torrent of feedback we have received since it came out, is the subject of this Kopi Time episode. Tony and I go over the key arguments&mdash;public safety, strategic importance, distributional fairness, and common imperative, and respond to the various lines of arguments against them, from it&rsquo;s too late, it&rsquo;s not feasible, it will harm innovation, and the government is the problem, not the solution. By referring to relevant history of economic thought, experience with public ownership of strategic assets in the 20th century, and a common-sense risk management approach, we think our responses are adequate. You can be the judge.

Kopi Time E178: AI and National Interest with Dr. Anthony Annett

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/000aa15b-e401-4a4a-a5ab-b4500013a838/transcript

A year since the reciprocal tariff bombshell, how has trade changed and what realignments are in the making? We invite back to Kopi Time, Deborah Elms, Hinrich Foundation’s head of trade policy, to mark the tumultuous period. We begin by taking stock of the macro impact on the US and rest of the world over the past year, with little evidence of a major change in the import appetite of American consumers or export viability of Asia. Deborah points out that there is nonetheless a substantial realignment in production origins and trade patterns.  We talk about the many uncertain aspects related to new rounds of US tariffs, investigations, and deal status for most countries in the world. We conclude with a roundup on the many consequential deals being done outside the US, and the parts of WTO framework still functional.  Wars may command headlines presently; trade matters are not going away at all.

A year since the reciprocal tariff bombshell, how has trade changed and what realignments are in the making? We invite back to Kopi Time, Deborah Elms, Hinrich Foundation&rsquo;s head of trade policy, to mark the tumultuous period. We begin by taking stock of the macro impact on the US and rest of the world over the past year, with little evidence of a major change in the import appetite of American consumers or export viability of Asia. Deborah points out that there is nonetheless a substantial realignment in production origins and trade patterns. &nbsp;We talk about the many uncertain aspects related to new rounds of US tariffs, investigations, and deal status for most countries in the world. We conclude with a roundup on the many consequential deals being done outside the US, and the parts of WTO framework still functional. &nbsp;Wars may command headlines presently; trade matters are not going away at all.

Kopi Time E177 - Deborah Elms on Trade Matters

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/73bf2417-a034-4c7b-a7d2-b4400064ad94/transcript

Kopi Time E171 - IIF's Tim Adams on the Fed, US Fiscal, & Financial Stability

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