Welcome to CPI Time, a podcast series on Markets and Economies from DVS Group Research. I'm the chief economist. Welcoming you to our 119th episode. Today, we will look at various geo economic and political risks at play. Angela Mancini is partner and head of Geopolitical risk analysis Practice for Asia Pacific at control risk.

Welcome to CPI Time, a podcast series on Markets and Economies from DVS Group Research. I'm the chief economist. Welcoming you to our 119th episode. Today, we will look at various geo economic and political risks at play. Angela Mancini is partner and head of Geopolitical risk analysis Practice for Asia Pacific at control risk.

It's based in Singapore and her team advises governments and private organizations on how their strategies might be exposed to political regulatory and reputation risks. Angela Mancini. Welcome back to COVID Time.

It's based in Singapore and her team advises governments and private organizations on how their strategies might be exposed to political regulatory and reputation risks. Angela Mancini. Welcome back to COVID Time.

Great. It's great to be here. Thanks for having me back.

Great. It's great to be here. Thanks for having me back.

Uh Angela, you were with us in the very early days of COVID time. Way back in March 2020. Now, four years have gone by. But I think it's kind of instruct you to see what we talked about in that podcast.

Uh Angela, you were with us in the very early days of COVID time. Way back in March 2020. Now, four years have gone by. But I think it's kind of instruct you to see what we talked about in that podcast.

Uh Well, let's see, we covered political turmoil in Indonesia and Malaysia. We talked about China us relationship in light of the pandemic that was about to engulf us at that point. I think at that point, it was mostly China and risks for the rest of the world.

Uh Well, let's see, we covered political turmoil in Indonesia and Malaysia. We talked about China us relationship in light of the pandemic that was about to engulf us at that point. I think at that point, it was mostly China and risks for the rest of the world.

And boy, boy, how things panned out the following months. And then we also talked about, oh gosh, uh us election outlook. So I think we need to reprise all of those topics and some more today. Uh Let's start with Indonesia where we just have a landmark election. So what's your take on the election to get the conversation going?

And boy, boy, how things panned out the following months. And then we also talked about, oh gosh, uh us election outlook. So I think we need to reprise all of those topics and some more today. Uh Let's start with Indonesia where we just have a landmark election. So what's your take on the election to get the conversation going?

Yeah. So it's an interesting one, as we say, control risk. It was unexpected but pretty easily explained, right? So, so as we know, Prabowo, Subianto got 58% of the vote avoided a runoff election. Um Many thought there might be a runoff. Clearly, it's good for business uh predictability and policy continuity that there's not a runoff. We can just kind of get through that potentially people were got a long election season. A lot of ups and downs were past all that.

Yeah. So it's an interesting one, as we say, control risk. It was unexpected but pretty easily explained, right? So, so as we know, Prabowo, Subianto got 58% of the vote avoided a runoff election. Um Many thought there might be a runoff. Clearly, it's good for business uh predictability and policy continuity that there's not a runoff. We can just kind of get through that potentially people were got a long election season. A lot of ups and downs were past all that.

I think the interesting thing here with that election is that you really did see Jokowi moving behind the scenes to help Prabowo and his son who's obviously, you know, Gibron, the vice presidential candidate now winner um

I think the interesting thing here with that election is that you really did see Jokowi moving behind the scenes to help Prabowo and his son who's obviously, you know, Gibron, the vice presidential candidate now winner um

in that election. So if you look at the Jacoby legacy, you know, he came in as a reformer man of the people, he still has 80% or so, a little bit less popularity rating. He's arguably the most popular leader in the world, which is just, you know, astonishing and he really did deliver on a lot of his promises around

in that election. So if you look at the Jacoby legacy, you know, he came in as a reformer man of the people, he still has 80% or so, a little bit less popularity rating. He's arguably the most popular leader in the world, which is just, you know, astonishing and he really did deliver on a lot of his promises around

infrastructure and helping develop, you know, uh the lives of the Indonesian people in a better way, socio-economic development, et cetera. And so, but he's now moved right? And, and I think as you look at his participation in the election kind of helping a little bit behind the scenes to put the finger on the scales a bit. He's moved from that man of the people reformer mode into more legacy building.

infrastructure and helping develop, you know, uh the lives of the Indonesian people in a better way, socio-economic development, et cetera. And so, but he's now moved right? And, and I think as you look at his participation in the election kind of helping a little bit behind the scenes to put the finger on the scales a bit. He's moved from that man of the people reformer mode into more legacy building.

And so I mentioned that because I think it's important to note he did have a role behind the election and the election outcome which now for right or wrong puts us where we are. And then we can have a conversation about where we think Prabowo will take Indonesia. But

And so I mentioned that because I think it's important to note he did have a role behind the election and the election outcome which now for right or wrong puts us where we are. And then we can have a conversation about where we think Prabowo will take Indonesia. But

it is a bit of a turning point for Indonesia because you know, it is gonna be all new stakeholders for business, all new people in cabinet. Um no more la pa and behind the scenes as the as the gatekeeper. So it is really a new day for investors in Indonesia.

it is a bit of a turning point for Indonesia because you know, it is gonna be all new stakeholders for business, all new people in cabinet. Um no more la pa and behind the scenes as the as the gatekeeper. So it is really a new day for investors in Indonesia.

So you mentioned the word Jokowi's legacy a couple of times, I want to sort of think in terms of his predecessor. So Svy was also president for 10 years. Uh He sort of faded away although he tried through familial routes as well as well to remain relevant. Uh But Jokowi is clearly a little more successful in getting his son placed in the vice president's office. Now, is that a natural alliance for Jokowi and his son?

So you mentioned the word Jokowi's legacy a couple of times, I want to sort of think in terms of his predecessor. So Svy was also president for 10 years. Uh He sort of faded away although he tried through familial routes as well as well to remain relevant. Uh But Jokowi is clearly a little more successful in getting his son placed in the vice president's office. Now, is that a natural alliance for Jokowi and his son?

Uh not really on the face of it. I mean, Jacoby actually, as you know, um as some say, betrayed his party PD IP to actually support. So he did not, you know, promote the PD IP candidate, he promoted POW instead. So it, but I think what he was keen to do if he could is support someone who would continue his own legacy. So Jokowi clearly is,

Uh not really on the face of it. I mean, Jacoby actually, as you know, um as some say, betrayed his party PD IP to actually support. So he did not, you know, promote the PD IP candidate, he promoted POW instead. So it, but I think what he was keen to do if he could is support someone who would continue his own legacy. So Jokowi clearly is,

has been quite successful with infrastructure, right? Obviously, all the, you know, the Jakarta subway and the roads and the airports and the ports and everything. And of course, the big question is, you know, how far will we go with actually moving the capital city from Jakarta to um East Kalimantan to New Sentara? And Prabowo has said he would, you know, keep pursuing that. So I think Joo is keen to keep that legacy going. And

has been quite successful with infrastructure, right? Obviously, all the, you know, the Jakarta subway and the roads and the airports and the ports and everything. And of course, the big question is, you know, how far will we go with actually moving the capital city from Jakarta to um East Kalimantan to New Sentara? And Prabowo has said he would, you know, keep pursuing that. So I think Joo is keen to keep that legacy going. And

I would imagine Mr Prabowo is someone who could, you know, help, help with that forward. But all to say, I mean Prabowo in his own right is popular. I mean, he is uh as our analyst and controllers said, you know, he's uh he is representing the Indonesian of today even if some may not like that. I mean, we know he said that he

I would imagine Mr Prabowo is someone who could, you know, help, help with that forward. But all to say, I mean Prabowo in his own right is popular. I mean, he is uh as our analyst and controllers said, you know, he's uh he is representing the Indonesian of today even if some may not like that. I mean, we know he said that he

rights allegations. He's had, you know, he is a very controversial figure, but indeed, he got a lot of votes. And what we're expecting to see is you've got especially a young Indonesian population that wants someone strong to have Indonesia rising.

rights allegations. He's had, you know, he is a very controversial figure, but indeed, he got a lot of votes. And what we're expecting to see is you've got especially a young Indonesian population that wants someone strong to have Indonesia rising.

They want to go from the 16th largest economy to maybe top 10, maybe top six. They want to be prominent on the world stage and someone like provoke is, you know, we're expecting to see you really active on the international stage, be really vocal and comfortably. So in all these international Fora and

They want to go from the 16th largest economy to maybe top 10, maybe top six. They want to be prominent on the world stage and someone like provoke is, you know, we're expecting to see you really active on the international stage, be really vocal and comfortably. So in all these international Fora and

really kind of uh championing what Indonesia wants to do and navigating, of course, that tight balance between the US and China. And so it's not to say that Jokowi kind of entirely swung the election. Prabowo had a lot that the voters I think were, were really looking for as well.

really kind of uh championing what Indonesia wants to do and navigating, of course, that tight balance between the US and China. And so it's not to say that Jokowi kind of entirely swung the election. Prabowo had a lot that the voters I think were, were really looking for as well.

Yeah. And you know, it's funny, despite hosting the G 20 getting significant profile in the world stage, I never felt that Jokowi was

Yeah. And you know, it's funny, despite hosting the G 20 getting significant profile in the world stage, I never felt that Jokowi was

very much, you know, in his elements when it came to international diplomacy and representing Indonesia in a large forum. No doubt Prabowo, given his military background and decades of public speaking, he is way more comfortable in that. Uh whether he ends up saying things that will always help Indonesia remains to be seen. I do worry a little bit Angela, that the way we've seen the Philippines where you do see these of

very much, you know, in his elements when it came to international diplomacy and representing Indonesia in a large forum. No doubt Prabowo, given his military background and decades of public speaking, he is way more comfortable in that. Uh whether he ends up saying things that will always help Indonesia remains to be seen. I do worry a little bit Angela, that the way we've seen the Philippines where you do see these of

uh politics of convenience where you step away from the presidency, but you get somebody from your side to be the vice president and that hasn't quite worked out very well in Philippines. Uh Let's let's hope and wish Indonesia the best of luck in that unlikely alliance, uh things to work out pretty well. Um You mentioned

uh politics of convenience where you step away from the presidency, but you get somebody from your side to be the vice president and that hasn't quite worked out very well in Philippines. Uh Let's let's hope and wish Indonesia the best of luck in that unlikely alliance, uh things to work out pretty well. Um You mentioned

Jokowi being, you know, sort of centered around infrastructure projects including this mega project of moving the capital. The general impression to me is that these things are changing things on the margin, but we need deeper reforms and it is not like, you know, Indonesia's decade by proxy. There are many other countries in the region who are competing for

Jokowi being, you know, sort of centered around infrastructure projects including this mega project of moving the capital. The general impression to me is that these things are changing things on the margin, but we need deeper reforms and it is not like, you know, Indonesia's decade by proxy. There are many other countries in the region who are competing for

with the same investment dollars. And Indonesia needs to be a far more attractive, predictable, transparent destination for business capital. What do you hear from your clients with respect to their attitude to Indonesia? Yeah, I

with the same investment dollars. And Indonesia needs to be a far more attractive, predictable, transparent destination for business capital. What do you hear from your clients with respect to their attitude to Indonesia? Yeah, I

think you're, you're really hitting the nail on the head because with the presidency, what we're expecting is again, unlike Ji who came in, didn't, wasn't a policy

think you're, you're really hitting the nail on the head because with the presidency, what we're expecting is again, unlike Ji who came in, didn't, wasn't a policy

petition, didn't really know how the political system worked, had to rely on a lot of other people. Um In the cabinet had some early missteps and policy, you know, lack of policy continuity. We will see the opposite with Prabowo. He knows what he's doing. He's tied into four out of the five main circles of importance within Indonesia, business politics, military, et cetera academia.

petition, didn't really know how the political system worked, had to rely on a lot of other people. Um In the cabinet had some early missteps and policy, you know, lack of policy continuity. We will see the opposite with Prabowo. He knows what he's doing. He's tied into four out of the five main circles of importance within Indonesia, business politics, military, et cetera academia.

So what we'll expect to see is policy continuity of the gate. So from a business perspective, what our clients say is they're looking forward to a pro business, business policy continuity candidate. The trick though is we expect that he's going to be the, the team around him is gonna be a little bit more oligarchic. So it's gonna be a lot of people. He knows a lot of tycoons in power in the cabinet, he'll run the cabinet probably like a CEO would do. Um

So what we'll expect to see is policy continuity of the gate. So from a business perspective, what our clients say is they're looking forward to a pro business, business policy continuity candidate. The trick though is we expect that he's going to be the, the team around him is gonna be a little bit more oligarchic. So it's gonna be a lot of people. He knows a lot of tycoons in power in the cabinet, he'll run the cabinet probably like a CEO would do. Um

So what does that mean? Then for business, if your interests are aligned with that group, then that's great. If they're not, or if your local partner falls out, let's even say your local partners in the PD IP, which has of course been in, in, you know, um in power. But if somehow they fall afoul of what Prabowo's very strong interests are, then might you get swept up and make you get left behind, right? So it could be

So what does that mean? Then for business, if your interests are aligned with that group, then that's great. If they're not, or if your local partner falls out, let's even say your local partners in the PD IP, which has of course been in, in, you know, um in power. But if somehow they fall afoul of what Prabowo's very strong interests are, then might you get swept up and make you get left behind, right? So it could be

swept up an anti corruption campaign or could just be left behind out of, you know, some of the, some of the good projects. So as we know, it is the main thing our clients always worry about with Indonesia in addition to infrastructure issues is corruption. And so what we're expecting to see now with Prabowo and power is most, everyone's gonna have to be working with politically exposed people, most likely either through cabinet ministries and projects, local partners. The trick is gonna be

swept up an anti corruption campaign or could just be left behind out of, you know, some of the, some of the good projects. So as we know, it is the main thing our clients always worry about with Indonesia in addition to infrastructure issues is corruption. And so what we're expecting to see now with Prabowo and power is most, everyone's gonna have to be working with politically exposed people, most likely either through cabinet ministries and projects, local partners. The trick is gonna be

making sure as a let's say you're a foreign investor, you've really got that stakeholder map down, you've really done your due diligence. There are good people to work with. I'm not at all saying that everyone's corrupt and it's not possible to find good projects, but it's gonna be really important to make sure that um as a business, you're really understanding what that landscape is for your particular project. And there's areas of opportunity again, if you can hit that sweet spot where you're actually hitting into infrastructure and some of the green energy issues

making sure as a let's say you're a foreign investor, you've really got that stakeholder map down, you've really done your due diligence. There are good people to work with. I'm not at all saying that everyone's corrupt and it's not possible to find good projects, but it's gonna be really important to make sure that um as a business, you're really understanding what that landscape is for your particular project. And there's areas of opportunity again, if you can hit that sweet spot where you're actually hitting into infrastructure and some of the green energy issues

there, that would be great. But um if you weren't foul of it, then that's gonna be an

there, that would be great. But um if you weren't foul of it, then that's gonna be an

issue.

issue.

You also briefly mentioned the balancing act between China and the US, which will become a running refrain through the course of this podcast. Uh How is Indonesia dealing with this uh great power rivalry?

You also briefly mentioned the balancing act between China and the US, which will become a running refrain through the course of this podcast. Uh How is Indonesia dealing with this uh great power rivalry?

Well, it's interesting because unlike Malaysia or Vietnam, who are more squarely in the US, Camp Indonesia is probably one of the um countries in ASEAN that does the most in terms of actually trying to have a bit of a balance. I mean, obviously you have strong ties with the US from a military point of view. But the issue obviously with Indonesia, as we know is, it's still

Well, it's interesting because unlike Malaysia or Vietnam, who are more squarely in the US, Camp Indonesia is probably one of the um countries in ASEAN that does the most in terms of actually trying to have a bit of a balance. I mean, obviously you have strong ties with the US from a military point of view. But the issue obviously with Indonesia, as we know is, it's still

a resource producing country. Mainly nickel is a big issue right now. Um And it's trying to move up the value chain with a lot of what it's doing and also move into things like um ecommerce and, and, you know, things that aren't just pulling things out of the ground. Um But where the US and the West

a resource producing country. Mainly nickel is a big issue right now. Um And it's trying to move up the value chain with a lot of what it's doing and also move into things like um ecommerce and, and, you know, things that aren't just pulling things out of the ground. Um But where the US and the West

may have concerns getting into business and doing some projects with Indonesia as it relates to, let's say ESG concerns or other regulatory concerns. China is very willing to step in. So from an economic point of view, you see China very willing and able and in fact very

may have concerns getting into business and doing some projects with Indonesia as it relates to, let's say ESG concerns or other regulatory concerns. China is very willing to step in. So from an economic point of view, you see China very willing and able and in fact very

aggressively so going to develop business within in Indonesia and Indonesia is happy about that. I mean, they, they need the investment if they can't get it from the west or it's coming too slow from the West, they're very um welcoming to Chinese investment. So

aggressively so going to develop business within in Indonesia and Indonesia is happy about that. I mean, they, they need the investment if they can't get it from the west or it's coming too slow from the West, they're very um welcoming to Chinese investment. So

it is a balancing act. I think with Prabowo in power, he will be certainly more vocal. He's also as, you know, uh prone to some gaffes uh like the, you know, us President Biden, I mean, the comment he made at the Shangri la dialogue uh last year or so about, you know, the peace plan for Russia, Ukraine shows that he can indeed have some verbal gaffe. So, you know, hopefully we don't see something there that's too significant. But in some, I think he'll do um

it is a balancing act. I think with Prabowo in power, he will be certainly more vocal. He's also as, you know, uh prone to some gaffes uh like the, you know, us President Biden, I mean, the comment he made at the Shangri la dialogue uh last year or so about, you know, the peace plan for Russia, Ukraine shows that he can indeed have some verbal gaffe. So, you know, hopefully we don't see something there that's too significant. But in some, I think he'll do um

the same job that Indonesia has been doing really balancing the US and China. But in a strong way, I mean, it's Indonesia rising, Indonesia's voice on the world stage. Indonesia saying, you know, we're, we're here and we've got things to offer and you need to kind of play by our rules. I think the trick for Indonesia is that there's a lot of other markets out there where people can go and investment doesn't have to stay in Indonesia. There's a lot of other options uh on the horizon as well.

the same job that Indonesia has been doing really balancing the US and China. But in a strong way, I mean, it's Indonesia rising, Indonesia's voice on the world stage. Indonesia saying, you know, we're, we're here and we've got things to offer and you need to kind of play by our rules. I think the trick for Indonesia is that there's a lot of other markets out there where people can go and investment doesn't have to stay in Indonesia. There's a lot of other options uh on the horizon as well.

Right, Angela, a classic example would be getting the EV investment and the battery investment. Yes, from Panasonic to Tesla, there are a bunch of countries that are so Western Light who probably will end up investing in Indonesia. But Byd may equally offer tremendous terms and opportunities for Indonesia if they choose to invest in and for a country to your point of large population, young population, aspirational,

Right, Angela, a classic example would be getting the EV investment and the battery investment. Yes, from Panasonic to Tesla, there are a bunch of countries that are so Western Light who probably will end up investing in Indonesia. But Byd may equally offer tremendous terms and opportunities for Indonesia if they choose to invest in and for a country to your point of large population, young population, aspirational,

they I'm sure would like to drive good looking electric cars. You know, I have a feeling that the Chinese will really give Western investors in that area massive run for their money. Yeah,

they I'm sure would like to drive good looking electric cars. You know, I have a feeling that the Chinese will really give Western investors in that area massive run for their money. Yeah,

that's right, especially since also in the ev market, as we know, the Chinese have a great product and it's at a great price. Um and you see, you know, you see these cars also in Singapore and and elsewhere and, and that's something you know, we can, you know, get into Malaysia as well, but Malaysia is also looking at ev production and and um

that's right, especially since also in the ev market, as we know, the Chinese have a great product and it's at a great price. Um and you see, you know, you see these cars also in Singapore and and elsewhere and, and that's something you know, we can, you know, get into Malaysia as well, but Malaysia is also looking at ev production and and um

at scale. And I think, you know, the the challenge when we think about us, China is there's the geopolitics of it, but then there's a business aspect of it. And China we do need to recognize has some products that are really strong and they're again priced efficiently and they're willing to work with governments across ASEAN. So it's not simply just a geopolitical consideration. It's an economic consideration and they do actually bring quite a lot to the table.

at scale. And I think, you know, the the challenge when we think about us, China is there's the geopolitics of it, but then there's a business aspect of it. And China we do need to recognize has some products that are really strong and they're again priced efficiently and they're willing to work with governments across ASEAN. So it's not simply just a geopolitical consideration. It's an economic consideration and they do actually bring quite a lot to the table.

Right. I suppose also the fact that Indonesia doesn't have any territorial dispute with China, as opposed to say, Vietnam or Philippines probably make it easier for them to navigate this. But thanks for bringing the Malaysian angle in. That's exactly where I wanted to take this conversation to work. Um So they have had a remarkably stable one year. I thought when I got elected that it was going to be a lot of volatility. Uh It's turned out to be sort of, ok, so far.

Right. I suppose also the fact that Indonesia doesn't have any territorial dispute with China, as opposed to say, Vietnam or Philippines probably make it easier for them to navigate this. But thanks for bringing the Malaysian angle in. That's exactly where I wanted to take this conversation to work. Um So they have had a remarkably stable one year. I thought when I got elected that it was going to be a lot of volatility. Uh It's turned out to be sort of, ok, so far.

Yeah, it's been so we, you know, we recently had the one year anniversary. It's been more stable. Yeah, than we might think certainly from a political perspective. So that's good. I think the challenge is as, you know, as you follow this closely is on the economic side, right? The ring, it is at a 26 year low and there's a lot of pressures economically. I mean, if you took the US fed out of the picture, so clearly, Malaysia is suffering from the, the high um US rates in the capital

Yeah, it's been so we, you know, we recently had the one year anniversary. It's been more stable. Yeah, than we might think certainly from a political perspective. So that's good. I think the challenge is as, you know, as you follow this closely is on the economic side, right? The ring, it is at a 26 year low and there's a lot of pressures economically. I mean, if you took the US fed out of the picture, so clearly, Malaysia is suffering from the, the high um US rates in the capital

looking for other options that are more lucrative than being investing in Malaysia at this point. But so if you took that out, it might be a slightly different picture, but there is a lot of economic anxiety. So on the political side, it's been fairly stable, on the economic side there's anxiety around inflation cost of living. Um Obviously, the the ring of weakness. I think the other thing that we see clients tracking more seriously now than ever is the rise of Islamic policies as well in Malaysia.

looking for other options that are more lucrative than being investing in Malaysia at this point. But so if you took that out, it might be a slightly different picture, but there is a lot of economic anxiety. So on the political side, it's been fairly stable, on the economic side there's anxiety around inflation cost of living. Um Obviously, the the ring of weakness. I think the other thing that we see clients tracking more seriously now than ever is the rise of Islamic policies as well in Malaysia.

So as you know, there's been uh under Anwar, there's been um some pro Malay um Islamic policies around things like Islamic education in schools and Sharia law and things like that that are moving through the legislative process or being, being um put out into the political discourse. It and also you recall he closed off the ports to Israeli flag ships.

So as you know, there's been uh under Anwar, there's been um some pro Malay um Islamic policies around things like Islamic education in schools and Sharia law and things like that that are moving through the legislative process or being, being um put out into the political discourse. It and also you recall he closed off the ports to Israeli flag ships.

So a lot of solidarity with the horrible conflict in Gaza.

So a lot of solidarity with the horrible conflict in Gaza.

Um But having said that that also makes Western investors nervous, particularly if there's a risk of boycotting American or Western brands which we've seen. And some of our clients in that space, whether they're American brands or European brands have quietly said that whether or not there's an an over

Um But having said that that also makes Western investors nervous, particularly if there's a risk of boycotting American or Western brands which we've seen. And some of our clients in that space, whether they're American brands or European brands have quietly said that whether or not there's an an over

caught, they're getting a lot of pressure from their staff or their staff is getting pressure from their community about why would you be working for, you know, a big Western company that's not in solidarity right now with the Palestinians and what's happening. So there's a lot of other things going on in addition to just the pure economic situation as well.

caught, they're getting a lot of pressure from their staff or their staff is getting pressure from their community about why would you be working for, you know, a big Western company that's not in solidarity right now with the Palestinians and what's happening. So there's a lot of other things going on in addition to just the pure economic situation as well.

But would you give Anwar A B plus or even an A minus for governing through a rather tenuous coalition?

But would you give Anwar A B plus or even an A minus for governing through a rather tenuous coalition?

Yeah, I would actually, I think that's right. I mean, I think you're right. I, I'm looking a little bit at the challenges but if you take a step back considering where Malaysia has been in the past several years with one M DB. And, um, no, and you know, everything else that they've gone through, I do think it is uniquely

Yeah, I would actually, I think that's right. I mean, I think you're right. I, I'm looking a little bit at the challenges but if you take a step back considering where Malaysia has been in the past several years with one M DB. And, um, no, and you know, everything else that they've gone through, I do think it is uniquely

right now, which I think that has been opening the door as you've seen to things like um conversations about, can we reopen the high speed rail project potentially between Malaysia and Singapore? And certainly the Johor Baru Singapore um economic Zone is,

right now, which I think that has been opening the door as you've seen to things like um conversations about, can we reopen the high speed rail project potentially between Malaysia and Singapore? And certainly the Johor Baru Singapore um economic Zone is,

you know, something that looks like it's going to be moving forward. So I don't know that those would be moving forward quite as rapidly as they would if we still had all the political mess in Malaysia. Because obviously, first and foremost, you need political stability before you can get these investments going. And Malaysia has always suffered from being in a neighborhood where, you know, in in principle, they're always so good on paper, right? It's such a good investment destination on paper. But when you do have other opportunities from Vietnam to Thailand, to Indonesia, Philippines,

you know, something that looks like it's going to be moving forward. So I don't know that those would be moving forward quite as rapidly as they would if we still had all the political mess in Malaysia. Because obviously, first and foremost, you need political stability before you can get these investments going. And Malaysia has always suffered from being in a neighborhood where, you know, in in principle, they're always so good on paper, right? It's such a good investment destination on paper. But when you do have other opportunities from Vietnam to Thailand, to Indonesia, Philippines,

um we have a lot of our clients say those other markets look better because just policies more stable, you know, who the ministers are, you kind of know what the challenges are gonna be and you can predict and, and plan around those and that's been harder in the past years of Malaysia. So in some, I do think the stability has been a big win.

um we have a lot of our clients say those other markets look better because just policies more stable, you know, who the ministers are, you kind of know what the challenges are gonna be and you can predict and, and plan around those and that's been harder in the past years of Malaysia. So in some, I do think the stability has been a big win.

So this is a critical issue to sort of consider Angela. So you're right that economically there's a lot of stress on foreign policy. Certainly Anwar is playing some of a high risk game. I mean, there are other Muslim majority countries in the region, Indonesia and then you go to South Asia, there's countries like Bangladesh who are not making as big a deal, even if there is a lot of, you know,

So this is a critical issue to sort of consider Angela. So you're right that economically there's a lot of stress on foreign policy. Certainly Anwar is playing some of a high risk game. I mean, there are other Muslim majority countries in the region, Indonesia and then you go to South Asia, there's countries like Bangladesh who are not making as big a deal, even if there is a lot of, you know,

dissonance at the grassroots level about what's happening in the Middle East. But Malaysia has chosen to sort of, you know, make it a lightning rod which complicates the picture. But at the same time, there seems to be a lot of interest. So I want to talk about the FD I related tech in a minute. But um before we talk about foreign investment, I want you to tell me a little bit about domestically on the digital economy side.

dissonance at the grassroots level about what's happening in the Middle East. But Malaysia has chosen to sort of, you know, make it a lightning rod which complicates the picture. But at the same time, there seems to be a lot of interest. So I want to talk about the FD I related tech in a minute. But um before we talk about foreign investment, I want you to tell me a little bit about domestically on the digital economy side.

Uh are the Malaysians doing the kinds of things that make them look like a digital savvy economy and mind you, they were ahead of the curve in the seventies. It was Penang that was building electronics before anybody else. And it was in the nineties when Anwar was Mahathir's second left hand man was talking about a multimedia super corridor. It sort of faded away but is it making a comeback?

Uh are the Malaysians doing the kinds of things that make them look like a digital savvy economy and mind you, they were ahead of the curve in the seventies. It was Penang that was building electronics before anybody else. And it was in the nineties when Anwar was Mahathir's second left hand man was talking about a multimedia super corridor. It sort of faded away but is it making a comeback?

It is, it, it's interesting that you mentioned about Penang, I was just at a conference uh last week in Istanbul where um there was someone there who was a senior in the semiconductor space in Taiwan who made that exact point that a lot of the initial tech and, and talent

It is, it, it's interesting that you mentioned about Penang, I was just at a conference uh last week in Istanbul where um there was someone there who was a senior in the semiconductor space in Taiwan who made that exact point that a lot of the initial tech and, and talent

was, you know, incubated in Penang. So it's interesting that you raise that. But yeah, so what we're seeing on the digital space in Malaysia, which is quite interesting is there's a big push to move all of the government operations into the cloud. So that, I mean, so there's the private sector development.

was, you know, incubated in Penang. So it's interesting that you raise that. But yeah, so what we're seeing on the digital space in Malaysia, which is quite interesting is there's a big push to move all of the government operations into the cloud. So that, I mean, so there's the private sector development.

But then I think the government moving up to the cloud is significant. Why is that? Because it's obviously bringing in a lot of cloud providers, Google just signed a massive recently a massive uh agreement with Malaysian government on that. But then it's also allowing for private sector investment opportunity of all that, you know, ecosystem around it and the infrastructure around it. So we're doing a lot of work with clients on data centers

But then I think the government moving up to the cloud is significant. Why is that? Because it's obviously bringing in a lot of cloud providers, Google just signed a massive recently a massive uh agreement with Malaysian government on that. But then it's also allowing for private sector investment opportunity of all that, you know, ecosystem around it and the infrastructure around it. So we're doing a lot of work with clients on data centers

which you know, a lot of countries want data centers and a lot of companies want to build data centers. And Malaysia is really a good place for that because it has it's a cheaper place, it has the land access, it has better access to renewable energy and and uh water where unlike let's say Singapore because you need water to cool the daily data centers.

which you know, a lot of countries want data centers and a lot of companies want to build data centers. And Malaysia is really a good place for that because it has it's a cheaper place, it has the land access, it has better access to renewable energy and and uh water where unlike let's say Singapore because you need water to cool the daily data centers.

So there's all the infrastructure opportunity around that. And then at the same time, what they're doing is they're shoring up the cybersecurity risk. So obviously, as they go into the cloud, there's big risk of cybersecurity breaches. And so they're putting into place a new cybersecurity law and then opening the door to a lot of cybersecurity providers to come in

So there's all the infrastructure opportunity around that. And then at the same time, what they're doing is they're shoring up the cybersecurity risk. So obviously, as they go into the cloud, there's big risk of cybersecurity breaches. And so they're putting into place a new cybersecurity law and then opening the door to a lot of cybersecurity providers to come in

and really support the government. But also, again, all the private sector that's also moving up to the cloud and, and they're also trying to become more of AAA bigger weight in ecommerce and fintech as well. So I think that's all heading in the right direction from um in an innovation point of view. And then again, just opening all that opportunity for, for all the infrastructure behind it as well.

and really support the government. But also, again, all the private sector that's also moving up to the cloud and, and they're also trying to become more of AAA bigger weight in ecommerce and fintech as well. So I think that's all heading in the right direction from um in an innovation point of view. And then again, just opening all that opportunity for, for all the infrastructure behind it as well.

This is a fascinating bifurcation on the broad macro side. There seems to be a lot of tension on the governance side. There seems to be some tension but underlying infrastructure wise, things that should make investors really, really interested in Malaysia, things seem to be going in the right direction. So let's talk about foreign investment. So you were at this conference in Penang, what are you hearing? I mean, people really want to put billions of dollars in building semiconductor plants again in Malaysia.

This is a fascinating bifurcation on the broad macro side. There seems to be a lot of tension on the governance side. There seems to be some tension but underlying infrastructure wise, things that should make investors really, really interested in Malaysia, things seem to be going in the right direction. So let's talk about foreign investment. So you were at this conference in Penang, what are you hearing? I mean, people really want to put billions of dollars in building semiconductor plants again in Malaysia.

So uh not quite that far. And, and the, so the conference I was at was actually interesting because it was a lot of global investors and regulators. Um actually in in Turkey looking at so not just Southeast Asia and Asia in general, but globally. And so I think the issues there are,

So uh not quite that far. And, and the, so the conference I was at was actually interesting because it was a lot of global investors and regulators. Um actually in in Turkey looking at so not just Southeast Asia and Asia in general, but globally. And so I think the issues there are,

I don't know that there's a lot of semiconductor plants that are going to be necessarily built in Malaysia. I know that's, that's an area that they're trying to move up the value chain if you take a step back. I mean, Malaysia historically has been known, of course for electronic manufacturing in palm oil as well. right? So, but with, again, with all the, and this is true across Southeast Asia more broadly, but with all the ESG concerns and climate change concerns, trying to really make sure they're moving further towards many

I don't know that there's a lot of semiconductor plants that are going to be necessarily built in Malaysia. I know that's, that's an area that they're trying to move up the value chain if you take a step back. I mean, Malaysia historically has been known, of course for electronic manufacturing in palm oil as well. right? So, but with, again, with all the, and this is true across Southeast Asia more broadly, but with all the ESG concerns and climate change concerns, trying to really make sure they're moving further towards many

factoring sector and also up the value chain of that. So in the past, Malaysia, you're right, um is looking at moving up the value chain with semiconductors, they've done a lot of testing and assembly. In the past, I think the really interesting thing to look at is can they compete and they're looking at it, can they compete with Japan and South Korea? Um with also thinking about design and things that aren't just assembly and testing.

factoring sector and also up the value chain of that. So in the past, Malaysia, you're right, um is looking at moving up the value chain with semiconductors, they've done a lot of testing and assembly. In the past, I think the really interesting thing to look at is can they compete and they're looking at it, can they compete with Japan and South Korea? Um with also thinking about design and things that aren't just assembly and testing.

But then geopolitically that gets a little bit tricky because I think if they're able to do that, the US of course, will, I'm sure be happy to see another country that's, you know, us friendly, that would be a critical note in the supply chain for semiconductors. But I think the challenge is if they get too good then are they, you know, are they seen as a competitor in that space? So again, I, I don't see um

But then geopolitically that gets a little bit tricky because I think if they're able to do that, the US of course, will, I'm sure be happy to see another country that's, you know, us friendly, that would be a critical note in the supply chain for semiconductors. But I think the challenge is if they get too good then are they, you know, are they seen as a competitor in that space? So again, I, I don't see um

many, many investors racing into Malaysia. Certainly they are on the data center side. But in terms of the, you know, the semiconductor production side, but I do think that that's a potential growing area. But one again that Malaysia will just have to be a little bit careful with, from a geopolitical perspective. But realistically, I don't expect that they would be so successful in the near term that that would be um really an acute issue for them.

many, many investors racing into Malaysia. Certainly they are on the data center side. But in terms of the, you know, the semiconductor production side, but I do think that that's a potential growing area. But one again that Malaysia will just have to be a little bit careful with, from a geopolitical perspective. But realistically, I don't expect that they would be so successful in the near term that that would be um really an acute issue for them.

Now earlier, you mentioned two things that bring in Singapore. One is this, you know, renewed talk about the high speed link between K and Singapore and then also this export processing zone uh deal that Johor and Singapore the mou was signed in January of this year. Um So Malaysia, Singapore Deep Sim Bio says there's a lot of Malaysian talent embedded in the Singapore economy. There's a lot of supplies for Singapore that come from Malaysia.

Now earlier, you mentioned two things that bring in Singapore. One is this, you know, renewed talk about the high speed link between K and Singapore and then also this export processing zone uh deal that Johor and Singapore the mou was signed in January of this year. Um So Malaysia, Singapore Deep Sim Bio says there's a lot of Malaysian talent embedded in the Singapore economy. There's a lot of supplies for Singapore that come from Malaysia.

Uh is this relationship in a, in a good spot right now?

Uh is this relationship in a, in a good spot right now?

Yeah, I think it is, especially with um the new king who's the sultan of Johor is, you know, I think really solidifies that and he has a very specific interest in really in, in, in as he's, you know, taking power in early days trying to solidify that relationship. I think it's a great opportunity. I mean, if you think about the ability, if there's a way to get, you know, even just transport of people who so many come across every day to work, you know, on both sides, if you can get that transport of people

Yeah, I think it is, especially with um the new king who's the sultan of Johor is, you know, I think really solidifies that and he has a very specific interest in really in, in, in as he's, you know, taking power in early days trying to solidify that relationship. I think it's a great opportunity. I mean, if you think about the ability, if there's a way to get, you know, even just transport of people who so many come across every day to work, you know, on both sides, if you can get that transport of people

in an down in an easier way, that's a massive win in terms of efficiency, in terms of cost, in terms of the flexibility of workers being able to live on both sides and, and the just the ability of talent to come from Malaysia into Singapore. As we saw during COVID, one of my clients works in the tech space here in Singapore,

in an down in an easier way, that's a massive win in terms of efficiency, in terms of cost, in terms of the flexibility of workers being able to live on both sides and, and the just the ability of talent to come from Malaysia into Singapore. As we saw during COVID, one of my clients works in the tech space here in Singapore,

they were really pressed because when the border closed, they hadn't quite appreciated just how many high highly skilled workers they were bringing in daily from Malaysia, you know, into Singapore to work and then go back so that alone would be significant. But then if you think about this uh investment zone that they're talking about that's going to have potentially special tax incentives and special infrastructure and customs clearing and whatnot

they were really pressed because when the border closed, they hadn't quite appreciated just how many high highly skilled workers they were bringing in daily from Malaysia, you know, into Singapore to work and then go back so that alone would be significant. But then if you think about this uh investment zone that they're talking about that's going to have potentially special tax incentives and special infrastructure and customs clearing and whatnot

it. That and, and of course, you know, focus on green, green energy that I think can be a real highlight for both countries and certainly um can serve as a great gateway for Singapore to further, then invest into Malaysia and just keep, you know, keep things much more open than they've been before. I think there can be nothing but, you know, pretty strong economic and also social benefits as well.

it. That and, and of course, you know, focus on green, green energy that I think can be a real highlight for both countries and certainly um can serve as a great gateway for Singapore to further, then invest into Malaysia and just keep, you know, keep things much more open than they've been before. I think there can be nothing but, you know, pretty strong economic and also social benefits as well.

I totally agree. And you know, this is not a unique situation. We see this all over Europe, Switzerland, high cost jurisdiction, but neighboring Germany France people go back and forth, do groceries, they arbitrage and it turned out to be a win, win for Switzerland, Germany and France. So in this particular case, also,

I totally agree. And you know, this is not a unique situation. We see this all over Europe, Switzerland, high cost jurisdiction, but neighboring Germany France people go back and forth, do groceries, they arbitrage and it turned out to be a win, win for Switzerland, Germany and France. So in this particular case, also,

despite the sort of per capita income differential, I think there's a lot of some biases that can be beneficial to your point due to the friction is just that could be used in terms of movement of labor. Uh It would help both sides substantially. So, yeah, let's cross our fingers and hope that, you know, we can sort of, you know, go across the border friction free in the coming years. Uh OK. Speaking of Singapore, uh now we've had a few landmark elections in the region. Now, here's one more coming up next year. Big changing of the Guard. Uh What's your sense of the 2020

despite the sort of per capita income differential, I think there's a lot of some biases that can be beneficial to your point due to the friction is just that could be used in terms of movement of labor. Uh It would help both sides substantially. So, yeah, let's cross our fingers and hope that, you know, we can sort of, you know, go across the border friction free in the coming years. Uh OK. Speaking of Singapore, uh now we've had a few landmark elections in the region. Now, here's one more coming up next year. Big changing of the Guard. Uh What's your sense of the 2020

five Singapore elections? Yeah.

five Singapore elections? Yeah.

So certainly we expect the PAP to win. That's no surprise. I think the question is just the margin. The, the interesting thing about this election will be, I think the timing. So as we know, they need to have the election in 2025 and the 70th anniversary of the PAP will be noted at the will, will be hitting that mark this November at the convention that they'll hold. So I think the question there will be

So certainly we expect the PAP to win. That's no surprise. I think the question is just the margin. The, the interesting thing about this election will be, I think the timing. So as we know, they need to have the election in 2025 and the 70th anniversary of the PAP will be noted at the will, will be hitting that mark this November at the convention that they'll hold. So I think the question there will be

you know, at what point is the election called? Because it doesn't have to be in 2025. It can be earlier and some factors that are at play. You know, one is, when does PM Lee want to step down and pass, uh, the reins over to Lawrence Wong, is that, you know, well, in advance of the November, uh, or maybe even in advance of National Day

you know, at what point is the election called? Because it doesn't have to be in 2025. It can be earlier and some factors that are at play. You know, one is, when does PM Lee want to step down and pass, uh, the reins over to Lawrence Wong, is that, you know, well, in advance of the November, uh, or maybe even in advance of National Day

in August, or is that advance in advance of the party convention in November? And what does that look like? Um, as you know, there's a big corruption case going on right now in Singapore. Uh certainly, I think any political party would want to see um ca a case like that resolved before they hit an election. And last week, there were actually new charges, eight new charges actually put out against the defendant, the ex Minister of Transport. So, um I think that timing of that case may factor in as well.

in August, or is that advance in advance of the party convention in November? And what does that look like? Um, as you know, there's a big corruption case going on right now in Singapore. Uh certainly, I think any political party would want to see um ca a case like that resolved before they hit an election. And last week, there were actually new charges, eight new charges actually put out against the defendant, the ex Minister of Transport. So, um I think that timing of that case may factor in as well.

Uh But certainly there's no surprise in what we think the election result is gonna be, I think it's just gonna be a matter of how they want to manage the timing of it. And we saw even, um in the past couple of days they announced, uh you know, the, the, the official that's gonna actually be running the election in terms of making sure things are smooth and, and, and moving forward properly with the, um you know, kind of cleanliness and, and efficiency of the election as well as uh saw a report overnight

Uh But certainly there's no surprise in what we think the election result is gonna be, I think it's just gonna be a matter of how they want to manage the timing of it. And we saw even, um in the past couple of days they announced, uh you know, the, the, the official that's gonna actually be running the election in terms of making sure things are smooth and, and, and moving forward properly with the, um you know, kind of cleanliness and, and efficiency of the election as well as uh saw a report overnight

that some public officials here in Singapore have already been notified that they're going to be trained to be election officials is how that works here. So the point is the machinery is starting to move. Uh So we may see something before November of 2025

that some public officials here in Singapore have already been notified that they're going to be trained to be election officials is how that works here. So the point is the machinery is starting to move. Uh So we may see something before November of 2025

when you were talking about Malaysia earlier, you very briefly mentioned the cost of living issue. Now, Angela, that's an issue all over the world, even the US elections. I have a feeling this year would be deeply affected by the sense that everything is much more expensive, but it's very much true in Singapore than in the last four years since the pandemic. Uh cost of uh you know, grocery shopping energy, everything is substantially higher. Do you see that issue weighing in substantially in this election?

when you were talking about Malaysia earlier, you very briefly mentioned the cost of living issue. Now, Angela, that's an issue all over the world, even the US elections. I have a feeling this year would be deeply affected by the sense that everything is much more expensive, but it's very much true in Singapore than in the last four years since the pandemic. Uh cost of uh you know, grocery shopping energy, everything is substantially higher. Do you see that issue weighing in substantially in this election?

Well, I think, you know, my reaction that would be, I think it's gonna weigh in in every election, the reality if you take a step back and we see this in all of our 38 global offices around the world for control risk and all the clients. We work with like 80% of the Fortune 500. Everyone is finding it harder to make that same dollar because PRE COVID, as you know,

Well, I think, you know, my reaction that would be, I think it's gonna weigh in in every election, the reality if you take a step back and we see this in all of our 38 global offices around the world for control risk and all the clients. We work with like 80% of the Fortune 500. Everyone is finding it harder to make that same dollar because PRE COVID, as you know,

his success was having a just in time supply chain, very cost efficient that has now changed. So even inflationary pressures for other reasons aside, Corporates need resilient supply chains again, regardless of geopolitics and everything else. So that already is adding cost and then you add in the geopolitical bits and then, you know, we were talking just a minute ago about Singapore Malaysia and that openness in terms of the border,

his success was having a just in time supply chain, very cost efficient that has now changed. So even inflationary pressures for other reasons aside, Corporates need resilient supply chains again, regardless of geopolitics and everything else. So that already is adding cost and then you add in the geopolitical bits and then, you know, we were talking just a minute ago about Singapore Malaysia and that openness in terms of the border,

that's as you know, going backwards in a lot of locations, right? If you just look at the US and Mexico and the border states and what used to be able to happen with workers being able to go across the border and back and and the efficiency that has so all to say

that's as you know, going backwards in a lot of locations, right? If you just look at the US and Mexico and the border states and what used to be able to happen with workers being able to go across the border and back and and the efficiency that has so all to say

the inflation issue and the cost issue is an issue that's factoring in every election this year in a year where we it is the year of the election, we have so many globally. Um So certainly it has to factor. I think Singapore has done a good job at trying to get out front in front of that issue. Unlike maybe some other countries really doing a lot in the space of trying to ensure that lower income people are getting

the inflation issue and the cost issue is an issue that's factoring in every election this year in a year where we it is the year of the election, we have so many globally. Um So certainly it has to factor. I think Singapore has done a good job at trying to get out front in front of that issue. Unlike maybe some other countries really doing a lot in the space of trying to ensure that lower income people are getting

subsidies and support, really trying to attract the kind of foreign investment that's going to create jobs. Um There's a lot of as we know people and money coming in from places like China and Hong Kong. So really thinking about how to smartly uh integrate that and make sure that that's additive to the overall economy here. So not easy, especially for a small country, I think they're doing a pretty good job with it. So I, again, I just, so in some I'd say it would factor in. But um what I don't

subsidies and support, really trying to attract the kind of foreign investment that's going to create jobs. Um There's a lot of as we know people and money coming in from places like China and Hong Kong. So really thinking about how to smartly uh integrate that and make sure that that's additive to the overall economy here. So not easy, especially for a small country, I think they're doing a pretty good job with it. So I, again, I just, so in some I'd say it would factor in. But um what I don't

see is that I, I don't see that they would be seen as doing a poor job with it. Certainly not comparative to uh to other countries.

see is that I, I don't see that they would be seen as doing a poor job with it. Certainly not comparative to uh to other countries.

Right. I think there is a very important angle related to marketing, that message, that to your point, there have been all these community vouchers and cash transfers given to the population to defra some of the higher cost of living, including the higher GST. Uh My view is that between now and the elections, how that message is marketed and, and you would need some, you know, super smart uh campaign people to do that. Uh I think it would sort of, you know, decide whether people

Right. I think there is a very important angle related to marketing, that message, that to your point, there have been all these community vouchers and cash transfers given to the population to defra some of the higher cost of living, including the higher GST. Uh My view is that between now and the elections, how that message is marketed and, and you would need some, you know, super smart uh campaign people to do that. Uh I think it would sort of, you know, decide whether people

take this in their strides or they feel that that message about high cost of living being somewhat intolerable, needs to be transferred in the voting booth. Uh I guess time will tell um Angela, but in general, this seems to be a good geo economic spot that Singapore is in right now. I mean we talked about Malaysia balancing China U si think Singapore is doing a pretty good job of balancing that too.

take this in their strides or they feel that that message about high cost of living being somewhat intolerable, needs to be transferred in the voting booth. Uh I guess time will tell um Angela, but in general, this seems to be a good geo economic spot that Singapore is in right now. I mean we talked about Malaysia balancing China U si think Singapore is doing a pretty good job of balancing that too.

Yeah, I agree with that, I think and as you know, as we know with Singapore, there's a few different elements of that, right? There's obviously the security uh guarantees and support they get from the US because of the security component of it. And then there's the economic component. I think that Singapore has done a really good job. As we've heard, the public officials say in speeches of really trying to be not a rule,

Yeah, I agree with that, I think and as you know, as we know with Singapore, there's a few different elements of that, right? There's obviously the security uh guarantees and support they get from the US because of the security component of it. And then there's the economic component. I think that Singapore has done a really good job. As we've heard, the public officials say in speeches of really trying to be not a rule,

take her but have a, a bit of a seat at the table. I mean, recognizing that it's a smaller country but really being relevant and being able to offer things not just to the US and China, but all countries in the region globally as being a place to attract investment. So I I see from the speeches again of public officials, a real underscoring of the fact that

take her but have a, a bit of a seat at the table. I mean, recognizing that it's a smaller country but really being relevant and being able to offer things not just to the US and China, but all countries in the region globally as being a place to attract investment. So I I see from the speeches again of public officials, a real underscoring of the fact that

it's not just about, oh, we happen to be in the middle and we need to, you know, figure out, you know, from a reactive point of view, how to balance but not be on the back foot, be on the front foot to say, what are we as Singapore offering the global economy in terms of we've talked about it before in this conversation, but you know, supply chains as a transit node but then also digital economy. Um and, and the like, so I think,

it's not just about, oh, we happen to be in the middle and we need to, you know, figure out, you know, from a reactive point of view, how to balance but not be on the back foot, be on the front foot to say, what are we as Singapore offering the global economy in terms of we've talked about it before in this conversation, but you know, supply chains as a transit node but then also digital economy. Um and, and the like, so I think,

you know, being a financial hub which is I know the space that you work more in, they've done a really good job at

you know, being a financial hub which is I know the space that you work more in, they've done a really good job at

really upgrading as much as they can their own capacity to again have a voice at the table and really be relevant as policies are set I think they're doing a good job

really upgrading as much as they can their own capacity to again have a voice at the table and really be relevant as policies are set I think they're doing a good job

indeed. Uh And the other area where potentially investment can come in is climate finance. You know, when you and I had our conversation four years ago, we talked about climate risks in the region. Um I personally am not very happy with the way this region is dealing with green transition, but perhaps you have a different view are ASEAN businesses getting the right signal from the government about green transition.

indeed. Uh And the other area where potentially investment can come in is climate finance. You know, when you and I had our conversation four years ago, we talked about climate risks in the region. Um I personally am not very happy with the way this region is dealing with green transition, but perhaps you have a different view are ASEAN businesses getting the right signal from the government about green transition.

I think this is a really key issue and it's only gonna grow in importance, I think as um as time goes by. So maybe we need to pick up the conversation later down the road as well and see how they've done at this current moment. I agree with you. I don't think, you know that there are movements in different ASEAN countries in the right way towards green energy transition, right?

I think this is a really key issue and it's only gonna grow in importance, I think as um as time goes by. So maybe we need to pick up the conversation later down the road as well and see how they've done at this current moment. I agree with you. I don't think, you know that there are movements in different ASEAN countries in the right way towards green energy transition, right?

You see, for example, in Laos, there's a lot of hydropower being produced uh and putting electricity into the grid in ASEAN, there's a lot of leakage there, but that's coming through Thailand and down to Singapore. So that's one positive thing. It's not needle moving in terms of, you know, ASEAN'S green transition, but it is happening. Um If you look at um you know, let's say the EV space and we talked about that briefly a little bit already, but

You see, for example, in Laos, there's a lot of hydropower being produced uh and putting electricity into the grid in ASEAN, there's a lot of leakage there, but that's coming through Thailand and down to Singapore. So that's one positive thing. It's not needle moving in terms of, you know, ASEAN'S green transition, but it is happening. Um If you look at um you know, let's say the EV space and we talked about that briefly a little bit already, but

Thailand is the winner here so far in ASEAN in terms of production of EV vehicles I think it's 400,000 this year and next year they're trying for 600,000 if they can get that line capacity up. So that's a real area where they're trying to drive across ASEAN. Um you know, production capability, which is a win, win also for investment and then hand in hand with that, of course, is the battery, the charging infrastructure.

Thailand is the winner here so far in ASEAN in terms of production of EV vehicles I think it's 400,000 this year and next year they're trying for 600,000 if they can get that line capacity up. So that's a real area where they're trying to drive across ASEAN. Um you know, production capability, which is a win, win also for investment and then hand in hand with that, of course, is the battery, the charging infrastructure.

Um So there's battery production in places like, you know, Malaysia and elsewhere, there are, you know, either underdevelopment or plans for being under development. So that's all good. Um I think there's two issues. One is there continues to be a heavy reliance on uh polluting extractive in the region. We know it um especially in places like Indonesia.

Um So there's battery production in places like, you know, Malaysia and elsewhere, there are, you know, either underdevelopment or plans for being under development. So that's all good. Um I think there's two issues. One is there continues to be a heavy reliance on uh polluting extractive in the region. We know it um especially in places like Indonesia.

And then number two, what we hear from our clients is they are really keen to find projects to invest in that are authentically clean and authentically green. So really not any greenwashing, really projects that are going to be helping them meet their own carbon targets and meet compliance rules to get subsidies from the US or

And then number two, what we hear from our clients is they are really keen to find projects to invest in that are authentically clean and authentically green. So really not any greenwashing, really projects that are going to be helping them meet their own carbon targets and meet compliance rules to get subsidies from the US or

the eu on green energy transition issues, right? So they are coming to us saying please help us find these projects because we need to find ones that are actually green but also are actually clean from a corruption point of view. That is the other challenge again, particularly in places like Indonesia where we need, you know, these clients need to find projects that

the eu on green energy transition issues, right? So they are coming to us saying please help us find these projects because we need to find ones that are actually green but also are actually clean from a corruption point of view. That is the other challenge again, particularly in places like Indonesia where we need, you know, these clients need to find projects that

are, are again, helping them meet their targets but aren't involved with the wrong politically exposed people that aren't having leakage from corruption that aren't exposing them to issues with the Foreign Practices Act, et cetera, et cetera. So that is actually where I think

are, are again, helping them meet their targets but aren't involved with the wrong politically exposed people that aren't having leakage from corruption that aren't exposing them to issues with the Foreign Practices Act, et cetera, et cetera. So that is actually where I think

if the countries across ASEAN really wanted to move the needle on it, they could work more on that because there is a lot of investor interest, particularly from places like Japan and Korea. It's just not easy at all to find the projects that are actually investable to then also again be getting the subsidies that the the eu and the US are giving out.

if the countries across ASEAN really wanted to move the needle on it, they could work more on that because there is a lot of investor interest, particularly from places like Japan and Korea. It's just not easy at all to find the projects that are actually investable to then also again be getting the subsidies that the the eu and the US are giving out.

Yeah, I mean, I look at the border adjustment tax coming from Europe and I worry that, you know, ASEAN exporters will get caught in the net, not fully prepared to deal with that. I look at various protection walls that the US is putting up and supporting its own industries. And again, I worry that that would cause ASEAN businesses to see some degree of uncertainty or market access restriction going forward. I I really want to see more urgency, Angela and I gotta say I'm a little frustrated.

Yeah, I mean, I look at the border adjustment tax coming from Europe and I worry that, you know, ASEAN exporters will get caught in the net, not fully prepared to deal with that. I look at various protection walls that the US is putting up and supporting its own industries. And again, I worry that that would cause ASEAN businesses to see some degree of uncertainty or market access restriction going forward. I I really want to see more urgency, Angela and I gotta say I'm a little frustrated.

Yes, because I do think, I mean, you know, we just saw in the news a week or so ago that ocean temperatures are at the highest levels they've ever, I mean, it's the um the velocity of change with climate is picking up, right. So I think there's only going to be more and more pressure and certainly, obviously, asean being in low lying countries with, you know, water rise issues and what not. I, I expect, you know, I, I see

Yes, because I do think, I mean, you know, we just saw in the news a week or so ago that ocean temperatures are at the highest levels they've ever, I mean, it's the um the velocity of change with climate is picking up, right. So I think there's only going to be more and more pressure and certainly, obviously, asean being in low lying countries with, you know, water rise issues and what not. I, I expect, you know, I, I see

the issue becoming more timely and acute also in voters' minds quickly, more quickly, maybe than governments expect. And then I expect the movement of capital to be there to invest in these projects even more quickly. It's just a matter of um

the issue becoming more timely and acute also in voters' minds quickly, more quickly, maybe than governments expect. And then I expect the movement of capital to be there to invest in these projects even more quickly. It's just a matter of um

can they find the projects?

can they find the projects?

Yeah,

Yeah,

I was speaking with the US investor the other day, the discussion was not really the climate change, but rather us government debt and deficit. And his point was that this is one of those things it will only be acted upon when there's a crisis till then, there is no impetus. And I, I fear that, you know, we would need some manifestation of climate emergency before we see some movement, which is a shame because you would want policymakers to have the vision to pre empt these issues as opposed to be reactive because then it's sometimes a bit too late. Um

I was speaking with the US investor the other day, the discussion was not really the climate change, but rather us government debt and deficit. And his point was that this is one of those things it will only be acted upon when there's a crisis till then, there is no impetus. And I, I fear that, you know, we would need some manifestation of climate emergency before we see some movement, which is a shame because you would want policymakers to have the vision to pre empt these issues as opposed to be reactive because then it's sometimes a bit too late. Um

uh Angela, let's move past ASEAN and talk about something that control risk does a lot, which is to help businesses manage China us friction. Uh We talked about this four years from ago. We'll talk about it now. I'm sure four years from now, you and I talk, we'll be talking about this. Where do we stand now? Where are we going?

uh Angela, let's move past ASEAN and talk about something that control risk does a lot, which is to help businesses manage China us friction. Uh We talked about this four years from ago. We'll talk about it now. I'm sure four years from now, you and I talk, we'll be talking about this. Where do we stand now? Where are we going?

So, yeah, um this is something that comes up on a on a daily basis, obviously for us. So um if you take a step back,

So, yeah, um this is something that comes up on a on a daily basis, obviously for us. So um if you take a step back,

there has been a floor put under us charge. So

there has been a floor put under us charge. So

from an investor's point of view, I guess to start there, from an investor's point of view, what do they want, they want as they're thinking about their very significant portfolios of investment in China, both in terms of financially and in terms of, you know, factory and operational footprint. They're looking for policy certainty, they're looking for uh you know, ability to move money out and the ability to move goods out and whatnot. And it just really understanding what regulations are coming down the pike and how things might change.