This is a recording from the DBS Asia Insights Conference 2025, held in Jakarta on May 21. I had the privilege of discussing Indonesia’s near and medium term outlook with Chatib Basri, former finance minister. In this conversation, Mr. Basri talks about Indonesia’s strategy during a time of geoeconomic fragmentation, the ability of the economy to absorb shocks, what it would take to reach 8% growth, the challenges to education, health, and infrastructure, sectoral development strategies in place, and the future of jobs amid tech disruption. An erudite speaker,  Mr. Basri’s insights are invaluable to those following South East Asia’s most populous economy.

This is a recording from the DBS Asia Insights Conference 2025, held in Jakarta on May 21. I had the privilege of discussing Indonesia&rsquo;s near and medium term outlook with Chatib Basri, former finance minister. In this conversation, Mr. Basri talks about Indonesia&rsquo;s strategy during a time of geoeconomic fragmentation, the ability of the economy to absorb shocks, what it would take to reach 8% growth, the challenges to education, health, and infrastructure, sectoral development strategies in place, and the future of jobs amid tech disruption. An erudite speaker, &nbsp;Mr. Basri&rsquo;s insights are invaluable to those following South East Asia&rsquo;s most populous economy.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi time is a podcast series on insights from markets and economies around the world, hosted by Taimur Baig, Ph.D., Chief Economist of DBS Bank Ltd.

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

DBS Economics & Strategy

Kopi Time E154 - Chatib Basri on Indonesia’s Present and Future

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/87644ca7-dfb8-47bb-a51d-b2ea009ad15f/transcript

In the year’s first podcast, we examine the factors that could help overcome ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty, helping achieve trend growth outcomes in the US, China, and Singapore. The year has begun under the shadow of a highly assertive US pushing its hegemonic agenda. Both externally and domestically, Donald Trump has taken a largely imperialist posture, subject to hardly any checks from the other arms of the government. His goals include achieving energy and rare earth material security, forcing neighbours in the Americas into acquiescence, curtailing China’s power, and supporting right wing regimes worldwide. We are however doubtful that his actions would secure the House of Representatives in November. Beyond the political dynamic, short of an AI bubble burst, the US economy is poised to grow in line with trend this year, led by consumption. A weak job market and easing inflation pressure would keep the Fed cutting the policy rate more, drama around Fed Chair notwithstanding. We worry about the erosion of institutional integrity in the US, but the ramifications are in the medium term, with investors likely to remain enthusiastic about holding US assets in the near term. On China, we recognise both its struggles with the property sector and the tailwind emanating from an impressive tech wave. The spillover from China’s expanding manufacturing base is positive for trade-oriented economies, contrary to the narrative of predatory excess capacity. On Singapore, we see a number of levers in place to propel growth this year and beyond.

 

In the year&rsquo;s first podcast, we examine the factors that could help overcome ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty, helping achieve trend growth outcomes in the US, China, and Singapore. The year has begun under the shadow of a highly assertive US pushing its hegemonic agenda. Both externally and domestically, Donald Trump has taken a largely imperialist posture, subject to hardly any checks from the other arms of the government. His goals include achieving energy and rare earth material security, forcing neighbours in the Americas into acquiescence, curtailing China&rsquo;s power, and supporting right wing regimes worldwide. We are however doubtful that his actions would secure the House of Representatives in November. Beyond the political dynamic, short of an AI bubble burst, the US economy is poised to grow in line with trend this year, led by consumption. A weak job market and easing inflation pressure would keep the Fed cutting the policy rate more, drama around Fed Chair notwithstanding. We worry about the erosion of institutional integrity in the US, but the ramifications are in the medium term, with investors likely to remain enthusiastic about holding US assets in the near term. On China, we recognise both its struggles with the property sector and the tailwind emanating from an impressive tech wave. The spillover from China&rsquo;s expanding manufacturing base is positive for trade-oriented economies, contrary to the narrative of predatory excess capacity. On Singapore, we see a number of levers in place to propel growth this year and beyond.
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Kopi Time E169 - Upside to the US, China, and Singapore

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/42d3c9bc-a705-4702-b16c-b3d3009c0824/transcript

Fiscal slippage, lower economic growth, sticky inflation, weaker dollar, steeper yield curve, financial instability; these are the key prognostications of Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar in our year-end podcast. President of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, Sri is a deep thinker on macro trade strategies, and his forecasting track record is outstanding. Going into 2026, he is bearish both stocks and bonds, long vols and gold, and bearish the USD. He worries that the inevitable bursting of the AI-bubble and sticky inflation would cause stagflation and financial instability risks in the US next year. He is also concerned about the erosion of institutional strength in the US, from the central bank to the treasury to the statistical agencies. An unambiguously bleak outlook.

Fiscal slippage, lower economic growth, sticky inflation, weaker dollar, steeper yield curve, financial instability; these are the key prognostications of Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar in our year-end podcast. President of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, Sri is a deep thinker on macro trade strategies, and his forecasting track record is outstanding. Going into 2026, he is bearish both stocks and bonds, long vols and gold, and bearish the USD. He worries that the inevitable bursting of the AI-bubble and sticky inflation would cause stagflation and financial instability risks in the US next year. He is also concerned about the erosion of institutional strength in the US, from the central bank to the treasury to the statistical agencies. An unambiguously bleak outlook.

Kopi Time E168 - 2026 Stagflation Risk with Komal Sri-Kumar

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/3de65e85-89f5-488e-a4f7-b3b7001ac5f7/transcript

Noah Doyle, Managing Partner at Javelin Investment Partners in Silicon Valley, with decades-long background in venture capital, joins Kopi Time to talk about tech and AI. We begin with a general discussion on the present vibe in Silicon Valley, giddy with record investments and returns. We then immediately pivot to the question of the moment, if there is an AI bubble, to which Noah offers a detailed and nuanced response, walking us through the supply and demand for AI infrastructure and products, the fund raising and capital deployment ecosystem, and dizzying valuation of AI companies, public and private. I then nudge Noah toward an issue close to his heart--if the path toward AGI through Gen AI, and if not, are there alternative paths in the making. Noah responds by discussing alternatives to Large Language Models, including symbolic logic-based AIs. We take the conversation toward innovations coming out of China and the US, which Noah tracks closely and sees the trend as a positive, mutually beneficial development. We talk about regulatory guardrails, cyber security, privacy, and ethical aspects of AI to round-up this fascinating conversation.

Noah Doyle, Managing Partner at <a href="https://www.javelinvp.com/" data-outlook-id="e937aeb4-99fa-4383-94a3-59b30b036211">Javelin Investment Partners</a> in Silicon Valley, with decades-long background in venture capital, joins Kopi Time to talk about tech and AI. We begin with a general discussion on the present vibe in Silicon Valley, giddy with record investments and returns. We then immediately pivot to the question of the moment, if there is an AI bubble, to which Noah offers a detailed and nuanced response, walking us through the supply and demand for AI infrastructure and products, the fund raising and capital deployment ecosystem, and dizzying valuation of AI companies, public and private. I then nudge Noah toward an issue close to his heart--if the path toward AGI through Gen AI, and if not, are there alternative paths in the making. Noah responds by discussing alternatives to Large Language Models, including symbolic logic-based AIs. We take the conversation toward innovations coming out of China and the US, which Noah tracks closely and sees the trend as a positive, mutually beneficial development. We talk about regulatory guardrails, cyber security, privacy, and ethical aspects of AI to round-up this fascinating conversation.

Kopi Time E167 - Noah Doyle on Tech, AI, and Bubbles

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/f6ad7490-363d-4f1f-8948-abf300412a6f/clips/5a8fd02d-ab38-4f44-b302-b3af0022583c/transcript

Kopi Time E154 - Chatib Basri on Indonesia’s Present and Future

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