In this episode, we dive into a crucial topic for commercial property investors: recession-proofing your portfolio. With an economic downturn always on the horizon, it’s essential to be prepared. Jerry shares practical strategies and mindset shifts that can help investors navigate and even thrive during challenging economic periods. From past recessions to the COVID era, we explore key lessons learned, plus insights into which property types and portfolio strategies offer resilience.

Key Takeaways:

Understanding the Cyclical Nature of Commercial Property:

• The commercial property market can experience sharp downturns, with significant price drops when demand weakens and financing becomes harder to secure.
• Unlike residential markets, commercial properties can see larger fluctuations, making preparedness essential for stability.

Lessons from Past Downturns:

• Jerry recalls past recessions, the Celtic Tiger crash, and the 2008 financial crisis, noting the value of flexibility and low debt leverage for surviving downturns.
• Building on examples from other investors, he shares why cash flow, conservative LTVs, and adaptable business models can be vital for resilience.

Property Types & Investment Approaches to Consider:

• Certain sectors, like industrial properties and essential retail (think grocery and pharmacy), tend to hold up better in economic slumps.
• Jerry discusses how multi-let properties and flexible leases can provide more stability than single-tenant properties, which are more vulnerable during downturns.

Diversifying and Choosing Resilient Property Types:

• Investing in multi-let properties or second-hand buildings can offer advantages over high-cost, single-use properties.
• Resilient sectors include warehousing for e-commerce, essential retail, and health and wellbeing spaces.

The Power of Cash Flow and Client Relationships:

• Cash flow becomes critical during recessions, allowing investors to maintain flexibility and seize opportunities.
• Maintaining strong relationships with clients and prioritising essential service tenants can enhance portfolio stability during economic uncertainties.

Debt Management and Financing Options:

• Keeping debt manageable and planning for potential revaluations can prevent costly refinancing issues during downturns.
• Jerry emphasises the importance of having a financial buffer and staying adaptable with financing options, such as bridge loans, to maintain liquidity.

Finding Opportunities Amid Downturns:

• Downturns can also present unique buying opportunities, allowing prepared investors to acquire properties at reduced prices.
• Long-term planning and adaptability are key to not only weathering economic storms but capitalising on them.

Resources Mentioned:

• Check out episodes 53 and 196 with Gavin Gallagher, where he shares his experience navigating the Celtic Tiger collapse.
• Follow us on Instagram @jerryalexander.commercial.
• Looking to build a resilient portfolio? Check out our Get in the Swim programme.

If you found this episode helpful, please leave us a review on iTunes or Spotify, and subscribe for more strategies to help you build a stable, recession-proof commercial property portfolio! Tune in next week for our interview with Richie Miller, who shares his experience with a diverse portfolio, including a self-storage business and a mega HMO.

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