Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to Bloomberg BusinessWeek with Carol Masser and Tim Stenovek on Bloomberg Radio. Well.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to Bloomberg BusinessWeek with Carol Masser and Tim Stenovek on Bloomberg Radio. Well.

President Trump has threatened a two hundred percent tariff on all alcoholic product ship from the European Union to spaying drinkers, restaurant tours, bar owners, and suppliers across the US. A reciprocal terror free trade agreement that has existed between the EU and the United States since nineteen ninety seven could be ripped up as a consequence of Trump's anger at a European levey on America's native spirit, otherwise known tim as bourbon.

President Trump has threatened a two hundred percent tariff on all alcoholic product ship from the European Union to spaying drinkers, restaurant tours, bar owners, and suppliers across the US. A reciprocal terror free trade agreement that has existed between the EU and the United States since nineteen ninety seven could be ripped up as a consequence of Trump's anger at a European levey on America's native spirit, otherwise known tim as bourbon.

Well, we are very interested in how the US spirits industry is viewing all of this. Ali Anderson is CEO at Kraftco. It's a company that has more than two dozen spirits and liqueurs, including Jin Vodka, Bourbon Rye, and Ready to Drink Cocktail. She joins us from Alexandria, Virginia. Ali, good to have you with us. How are you?

Well, we are very interested in how the US spirits industry is viewing all of this. Ali Anderson is CEO at Kraftco. It's a company that has more than two dozen spirits and liqueurs, including Jin Vodka, Bourbon Rye, and Ready to Drink Cocktail. She joins us from Alexandria, Virginia. Ali, good to have you with us. How are you?

I am well? Thank you, Carol, good to be here.

I am well? Thank you, Carol, good to be here.

Hey, before we get to exactly the impact of tariffs, explain your portfolio here, because I want to understand what exactly you have if you make it or if you just license it. What are the intricacies here?

Hey, before we get to exactly the impact of tariffs, explain your portfolio here, because I want to understand what exactly you have if you make it or if you just license it. What are the intricacies here?

Oh, great question, great question to start with. So Kraftco. Has five different brands that are distributed all across the United States. We make these brands, We do source our whiskey, we distill our gin, and our vodka. We've got everything from the value end of the spectrum, or if you're just trying to get into whiskey and you're not quite sure where to start, all the way up to ultra premium luxury whiskeys that we spend quite a bit of time blending and finishing. So there's a lot to dig into with our portfolio. We also have a range of RTDs which are very popular. Ready to drink cocktails, Yeah, ready to drink great, Yeah, canned cocktails could not be bigger right now, and they've been on the climb now for a couple of beers. So we've got those as well. And then some look course, so if you're just you know, into the low know, the life's style thing where you just you're not interested in one hundred proof whiskey, we've got some liquors that are very flavor forward and lower proof so you can throw them in your seltzer and still be able to enjoy a good time.

Oh, great question, great question to start with. So Kraftco. Has five different brands that are distributed all across the United States. We make these brands, We do source our whiskey, we distill our gin, and our vodka. We've got everything from the value end of the spectrum, or if you're just trying to get into whiskey and you're not quite sure where to start, all the way up to ultra premium luxury whiskeys that we spend quite a bit of time blending and finishing. So there's a lot to dig into with our portfolio. We also have a range of RTDs which are very popular. Ready to drink cocktails, Yeah, ready to drink great, Yeah, canned cocktails could not be bigger right now, and they've been on the climb now for a couple of beers. So we've got those as well. And then some look course, so if you're just you know, into the low know, the life's style thing where you just you're not interested in one hundred proof whiskey, we've got some liquors that are very flavor forward and lower proof so you can throw them in your seltzer and still be able to enjoy a good time.

So I'm wondering about the tariffs and how you're viewing this. Do you export at all?

So I'm wondering about the tariffs and how you're viewing this. Do you export at all?

We currently don't export. But here's the thing about tariffs is that they are They affect everybody, whether you export or not. In fact, this was going to be our year to start exporting. So naturally, you know, we're disappointed here at Craftco. We're in thirty two states right now, and that's definitely affecting us. I think, you know, when we talk about tariffs and think about it, we first of all commend the administration's objectives to protect the American people, to support jobs in the United States, but we are concerned that those tariffs just really don't contribute to that effort. In fact, we think it harms the American jobs. You know, you look at something like whiskey, right, which starts with the farmers who grow the grain, very connected to that process, and then you move to the small business guys like us who distill that grain. Then you move on to the distributor whose trucks take it to your favorite bars and restaurants and eventually that bartender that you've got a relationship with where you go to get that great dependable glass of whatever your spirit is. Those are all the people in the supply chain that are really affected by this, whether you export or not.

We currently don't export. But here's the thing about tariffs is that they are They affect everybody, whether you export or not. In fact, this was going to be our year to start exporting. So naturally, you know, we're disappointed here at Craftco. We're in thirty two states right now, and that's definitely affecting us. I think, you know, when we talk about tariffs and think about it, we first of all commend the administration's objectives to protect the American people, to support jobs in the United States, but we are concerned that those tariffs just really don't contribute to that effort. In fact, we think it harms the American jobs. You know, you look at something like whiskey, right, which starts with the farmers who grow the grain, very connected to that process, and then you move to the small business guys like us who distill that grain. Then you move on to the distributor whose trucks take it to your favorite bars and restaurants and eventually that bartender that you've got a relationship with where you go to get that great dependable glass of whatever your spirit is. Those are all the people in the supply chain that are really affected by this, whether you export or not.

So you were going to export this year, but because of tariffs, you're.

So you were going to export this year, but because of tariffs, you're.

Not going to That's right, you know, we were going to export to Canada into the EU and certainly now of course we have to pivot and that's what we do or a small business, we can absolutely do that. But it does create a lot of price pressure and certainly a lot of competition at the shelf that you know, the over three thousand small distillers in this country now have to contend with where's all that supply going to go? It's going to come right back here in the United States.

Not going to That's right, you know, we were going to export to Canada into the EU and certainly now of course we have to pivot and that's what we do or a small business, we can absolutely do that. But it does create a lot of price pressure and certainly a lot of competition at the shelf that you know, the over three thousand small distillers in this country now have to contend with where's all that supply going to go? It's going to come right back here in the United States.

Yeah, how much has that changed in your business story and how you think about twenty twenty five? Alli?

Yeah, how much has that changed in your business story and how you think about twenty twenty five? Alli?

Great?

Great?

Yeah, So what it does for us is it really it really concentrates what we do at home. So we're based out of Holland, Michigan, right there on the Lake Shore. We're super proud of it and we love it, as are the Michiganders all over the state. And so what we do is we were concentrating our strategy to be experience based. So we're going to reopen our tasting room here very soon, and it's going to be an experience where you can come, you can sit down, you can connect, you can talk maybe about how tariffs are hurting your business, you can celebrate the best of what we have, which is an American spirit.

Yeah, So what it does for us is it really it really concentrates what we do at home. So we're based out of Holland, Michigan, right there on the Lake Shore. We're super proud of it and we love it, as are the Michiganders all over the state. And so what we do is we were concentrating our strategy to be experience based. So we're going to reopen our tasting room here very soon, and it's going to be an experience where you can come, you can sit down, you can connect, you can talk maybe about how tariffs are hurting your business, you can celebrate the best of what we have, which is an American spirit.

Well, you know, it's interesting too, the whole story of tariffs. As you it's obviously changing your plans for going overseas. There are concerns though that you know, all of this ultimately is going to impact as you said, this impacts farmers, drivers, So many people get impacted potentially by tariffs and not being able to access markets outside the United States. Are you beginning to think about a slowdown in the US then as a result, are you beginning to think about a possible recession and making business plans for such?

Well, you know, it's interesting too, the whole story of tariffs. As you it's obviously changing your plans for going overseas. There are concerns though that you know, all of this ultimately is going to impact as you said, this impacts farmers, drivers, So many people get impacted potentially by tariffs and not being able to access markets outside the United States. Are you beginning to think about a slowdown in the US then as a result, are you beginning to think about a possible recession and making business plans for such?

Oh, we certainly are. I think you know, we've seen a lot of the what we do at craft goes. We've sort of we look at the broader context and so we're seeing the larger producers start to pause production. We haven't seen that for many many years, right, we had this huge bourbon boom going back to two thousand and five all the way up through COVID. You know, we've all heard about the whiskey glut and the COVID hangover, and things are slowing down, and in the industry we call that normalization. So we very much see this as cyclical, not structural. We've certainly weathered tough times in the spirits industry before. But to your point, Carol, like it really is the hardworking Americans, the corn farmers, the truckers, the detillery workers, the barrel makers, the bartenders, the service the communities that ultimately depend on this for economically economic reasons, but then also just to connect to connect communities. I think that's gonna it's gonna be tough for Allie.

Oh, we certainly are. I think you know, we've seen a lot of the what we do at craft goes. We've sort of we look at the broader context and so we're seeing the larger producers start to pause production. We haven't seen that for many many years, right, we had this huge bourbon boom going back to two thousand and five all the way up through COVID. You know, we've all heard about the whiskey glut and the COVID hangover, and things are slowing down, and in the industry we call that normalization. So we very much see this as cyclical, not structural. We've certainly weathered tough times in the spirits industry before. But to your point, Carol, like it really is the hardworking Americans, the corn farmers, the truckers, the detillery workers, the barrel makers, the bartenders, the service the communities that ultimately depend on this for economically economic reasons, but then also just to connect to connect communities. I think that's gonna it's gonna be tough for Allie.

Is there a belief And I think this is something certainly everyone across the US and those of US report on policy out of the White House are trying to gauge, especially since as tariffs have been talked about since President Trump came back for a second term. You know, we've heard things and heard, you know, something different potentially an hour later or the next day, and so it's fluid, is how we are describing it. Is there an expectation that potentially this is a shorter term thing and that ultimately overseas markets will reopen again, or is there a concern that other markets are getting nervous about what the US is as a trading partner, and we'll look for longer term solutions to get whether it's alcohol, whether it's their bourbon, whether it's what have you in the future. I'm just curious if you can game that out.

Is there a belief And I think this is something certainly everyone across the US and those of US report on policy out of the White House are trying to gauge, especially since as tariffs have been talked about since President Trump came back for a second term. You know, we've heard things and heard, you know, something different potentially an hour later or the next day, and so it's fluid, is how we are describing it. Is there an expectation that potentially this is a shorter term thing and that ultimately overseas markets will reopen again, or is there a concern that other markets are getting nervous about what the US is as a trading partner, and we'll look for longer term solutions to get whether it's alcohol, whether it's their bourbon, whether it's what have you in the future. I'm just curious if you can game that out.

Yeah, it is. It's a game of ping pong right now.

Yeah, it is. It's a game of ping pong right now.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I think that's why. So we take the stance, at least in our small business of being flexible, of rooting down into what we can do domestically right now, and we've got a fantastic distribution network. We really do have good partners that way, but they're experiencing pressure as well. One of the other things that you know, I think that's really interesting about this is that Spirits is unique and that you can't make tequila or bourbon, which are very designated, distinctive products that can only be produced in certain geographical areas around the world. That's very unique to use and you know, to even argue on the other side of it with champagne and with conye right like, So it really is something that affects all of us, and I think generally in the spirits industry we're all very cooperative. I think we've been the model for what is fair and reciprocal trade, zero for zero tariffs, as you mentioned at the top, since nineteen ninety seven. So that's you know, it's we've done it well, we've done it right. We hate to see that.

I think that's why. So we take the stance, at least in our small business of being flexible, of rooting down into what we can do domestically right now, and we've got a fantastic distribution network. We really do have good partners that way, but they're experiencing pressure as well. One of the other things that you know, I think that's really interesting about this is that Spirits is unique and that you can't make tequila or bourbon, which are very designated, distinctive products that can only be produced in certain geographical areas around the world. That's very unique to use and you know, to even argue on the other side of it with champagne and with conye right like, So it really is something that affects all of us, and I think generally in the spirits industry we're all very cooperative. I think we've been the model for what is fair and reciprocal trade, zero for zero tariffs, as you mentioned at the top, since nineteen ninety seven. So that's you know, it's we've done it well, we've done it right. We hate to see that.

What would you say to somebody listening or watching right now who says, wait a second, if we put tariffs the US, that is two hundred percent tariffs on all alcoholic products shipped from the European Union, shouldn't you embrace that, Ali, because you're an American company, and then you don't have to compete price wise with the imported gins, the imported vodkas, the imported spirits.

What would you say to somebody listening or watching right now who says, wait a second, if we put tariffs the US, that is two hundred percent tariffs on all alcoholic products shipped from the European Union, shouldn't you embrace that, Ali, because you're an American company, and then you don't have to compete price wise with the imported gins, the imported vodkas, the imported spirits.

Yeah, I can see where that might be the case. I think for us, a rising tide raises all boats, and that is that is something we've done for a long time. It's something we've believed in competition is never a bad thing. It creates innovation, it creates new categories. So yeah, we absolutely want to see you.

Yeah, I can see where that might be the case. I think for us, a rising tide raises all boats, and that is that is something we've done for a long time. It's something we've believed in competition is never a bad thing. It creates innovation, it creates new categories. So yeah, we absolutely want to see you.

So you're in You're in Alexandria, Virginia right now, You're close to the US capital. Do you are you able to lobby? Are you able to communicate your concerns to Washington DC?

So you're in You're in Alexandria, Virginia right now, You're close to the US capital. Do you are you able to lobby? Are you able to communicate your concerns to Washington DC?

Oh?

Oh?

For sure. In fact, I'm part of CRAFTCO is a part of DISCUSS. I sit on the Craft Advisory Council. I'll be at the DISCUS Annual conference here in a couple of days Wednesday through Friday this week, and there certainly is an active effort underway to get to Capitol Hill and say, listen, we fully support the objective to protect people, to protect jobs, to be America first. We absolutely support that. What we're looking out for here is jobs, economy, innovation, trade relationships, and the long term health of the industry as a whole.

For sure. In fact, I'm part of CRAFTCO is a part of DISCUSS. I sit on the Craft Advisory Council. I'll be at the DISCUS Annual conference here in a couple of days Wednesday through Friday this week, and there certainly is an active effort underway to get to Capitol Hill and say, listen, we fully support the objective to protect people, to protect jobs, to be America first. We absolutely support that. What we're looking out for here is jobs, economy, innovation, trade relationships, and the long term health of the industry as a whole.

Allie, what can you tell us about the consumer and consumer strength at this point? And maybe I don't know. It's a case of what the consumer was feeling at the beginning of the year and what they're feeling now. If you're noticing any change.

Allie, what can you tell us about the consumer and consumer strength at this point? And maybe I don't know. It's a case of what the consumer was feeling at the beginning of the year and what they're feeling now. If you're noticing any change.

Consumers they drive what we do.

Consumers they drive what we do.

Right.

Right.

Consumers are all about preferences. When you know when lifestyle shifts happen, that's I think that's something that challenges us to respond. I mean, we are consumers ourselves, and so often I can speak for my company when we're sitting around the table and we're trying to figure out what could be the next great thing. We did this several years ago with a product we have called Cigarbland. We were the very first at Joseph Magnus to bring that to market, and that really was just born of things we like, right, what do we want to see in the market. And so today I think the customer is saying, what do you have for me? What do you have that's different, What do you have that fits my lifestyle?

Consumers are all about preferences. When you know when lifestyle shifts happen, that's I think that's something that challenges us to respond. I mean, we are consumers ourselves, and so often I can speak for my company when we're sitting around the table and we're trying to figure out what could be the next great thing. We did this several years ago with a product we have called Cigarbland. We were the very first at Joseph Magnus to bring that to market, and that really was just born of things we like, right, what do we want to see in the market. And so today I think the customer is saying, what do you have for me? What do you have that's different, What do you have that fits my lifestyle?

Right?

Right?

How can you dazzle me right? Keep me interested? So they're very very sticky. You know, everybody does a ton of research today, right, and we're thanking for it. They keep us on hard to just quick to follow.

How can you dazzle me right? Keep me interested? So they're very very sticky. You know, everybody does a ton of research today, right, and we're thanking for it. They keep us on hard to just quick to follow.

But in terms of actual consumer demand, our consumers slowing down or they being pinched and only got about twenty five seconds? Are you seeing any signs of that?

But in terms of actual consumer demand, our consumers slowing down or they being pinched and only got about twenty five seconds? Are you seeing any signs of that?

Yeah, we are seeing a little bit of a slow down. Like I said, we call it normalization. But we're seeing consumers make not worst choices, They're actually making very healthy choices. They're all about quality and not quantity.

Yeah, we are seeing a little bit of a slow down. Like I said, we call it normalization. But we're seeing consumers make not worst choices, They're actually making very healthy choices. They're all about quality and not quantity.

Now, all right, got to leave with They're great to get some time with you. Thank you so much. Allie Anderson. She's chief executive officer of KRAFTC. Joining us from Alexandra Virginia.

Now, all right, got to leave with They're great to get some time with you. Thank you so much. Allie Anderson. She's chief executive officer of KRAFTC. Joining us from Alexandra Virginia.

Hey Stock's rally today. The S ANDBF i've undered up one point eight percent, then asset can posit up two point three percent. Signs at the US tariffs will be more targeted than anticipated, reducing the appetite for safety. Oil climbed as President Trump said he would seek a twenty five percent tariff on nations buying crude and gas from Venezuela. Doug Cioka Doug Cioka has been watching this closely. Co and partner at Kvar Capital Partners got approximately one and a half billion dollars in assets under management. He joins US from Leewood, Kansas. Doug, we got your notes early today before we really saw this session take off, and you argued that there was this tip tariff implementation paralysis. It seems like markets have gotten past that today.

Hey Stock's rally today. The S ANDBF i've undered up one point eight percent, then asset can posit up two point three percent. Signs at the US tariffs will be more targeted than anticipated, reducing the appetite for safety. Oil climbed as President Trump said he would seek a twenty five percent tariff on nations buying crude and gas from Venezuela. Doug Cioka Doug Cioka has been watching this closely. Co and partner at Kvar Capital Partners got approximately one and a half billion dollars in assets under management. He joins US from Leewood, Kansas. Doug, we got your notes early today before we really saw this session take off, and you argued that there was this tip tariff implementation paralysis. It seems like markets have gotten past that today.

Yes, thanks Tim. It's a fluid situation. I think we get the pressure release valve today based on Friday afternoons announcement that Curvis corroborated over the weekend that you know, the maximum impact of the terriffs might be a little less than the market had been pricing in. But yeah, this TP tariff implementation paralysis is a real thing. I mean, you're talking about sectoral tariffs, secondary tariffs, reciprocal tariffs. Oh, and we're couching those within whether they are national security variety or the trade war variety. So there's a lot of cross pollination of tariffs that it led to a lot of investor consternation for sure.

Yes, thanks Tim. It's a fluid situation. I think we get the pressure release valve today based on Friday afternoons announcement that Curvis corroborated over the weekend that you know, the maximum impact of the terriffs might be a little less than the market had been pricing in. But yeah, this TP tariff implementation paralysis is a real thing. I mean, you're talking about sectoral tariffs, secondary tariffs, reciprocal tariffs. Oh, and we're couching those within whether they are national security variety or the trade war variety. So there's a lot of cross pollination of tariffs that it led to a lot of investor consternation for sure.

So do you view today's buying DOUG as a good sign or just all right, things have been beaten down a lot, let's just do a little bit of tiptoeing back in. It's not like we were up four, five, six, seven percent. So it does feel like to me that there's still some investor hesitation, but it definitely had a positive tone. How do you read what we got in today's trade?

So do you view today's buying DOUG as a good sign or just all right, things have been beaten down a lot, let's just do a little bit of tiptoeing back in. It's not like we were up four, five, six, seven percent. So it does feel like to me that there's still some investor hesitation, but it definitely had a positive tone. How do you read what we got in today's trade?

Yeah, that's a great question, Carolyn. Thank you guys again for having me on. Like, if you think about our financial markets and the economy, right, dynamic systems right, and as such, they're constantly evolving, but the most basic characteristics of dynamic systems are four things right, one stability, two instability, three oscillation, and four chaos. And I think when we're in chaos mode, within which the current administration seems to exist very comfortably, then in general you want to abide by a few different guiding principles. One, focus on valuation and not on price. Right, just because of stock falls from four fifty to two twenty doesn't necessarily mean that as a cheap stock, it might be a very judicious rerating given the underlying context where we think those profits may grow over a period of time within the prevailing economic environment. Number two, focus on rebalancing. Right, the market got so over sold. You guys have talked over the last weeks about some of these sentiment indicators and how quickly they reversed course like head snappingly quickly, we went from everything's awesome to we're near an armageddon scenario. So that gives incredible opportunities to rebalance when things get over sold like they have, which can lead to a lot of buying interests culminating in a single session like today. And the third thing you want to do this is particularly for wealth management clients like those that come our capital is embrace the context of a financial plan and how you can take opportunities to adhere to that given the shifting dynamic system within which we're navigating on a minute to minute basis. Right, in general, I was saying to Sepaul Trump is turning investors into day traders, and when that happens, you're going to see price gaps that with the long term perspective, are going to offer awesome entry points.

Yeah, that's a great question, Carolyn. Thank you guys again for having me on. Like, if you think about our financial markets and the economy, right, dynamic systems right, and as such, they're constantly evolving, but the most basic characteristics of dynamic systems are four things right, one stability, two instability, three oscillation, and four chaos. And I think when we're in chaos mode, within which the current administration seems to exist very comfortably, then in general you want to abide by a few different guiding principles. One, focus on valuation and not on price. Right, just because of stock falls from four fifty to two twenty doesn't necessarily mean that as a cheap stock, it might be a very judicious rerating given the underlying context where we think those profits may grow over a period of time within the prevailing economic environment. Number two, focus on rebalancing. Right, the market got so over sold. You guys have talked over the last weeks about some of these sentiment indicators and how quickly they reversed course like head snappingly quickly, we went from everything's awesome to we're near an armageddon scenario. So that gives incredible opportunities to rebalance when things get over sold like they have, which can lead to a lot of buying interests culminating in a single session like today. And the third thing you want to do this is particularly for wealth management clients like those that come our capital is embrace the context of a financial plan and how you can take opportunities to adhere to that given the shifting dynamic system within which we're navigating on a minute to minute basis. Right, in general, I was saying to Sepaul Trump is turning investors into day traders, and when that happens, you're going to see price gaps that with the long term perspective, are going to offer awesome entry points.

When do you think that's? Like, how do you see that playing out here? I mean, do you see that we're going to see more volatility ahead? Despite that, it seems like confidence is kind of back.

When do you think that's? Like, how do you see that playing out here? I mean, do you see that we're going to see more volatility ahead? Despite that, it seems like confidence is kind of back.

Oh, without question, tim without question, and see a lot more volatility, right, Because you also have to keep in mind this is taking place after two incredible years in the S and P five hundred. Consecutive years in the S and P five hundred, right, we needed to have a little bit of a shake up of optimism and sentiment in the environment. We needed a little bit of rerating that would keep people's expectation more in line with reality. So I think it's a process. There's so much emotion attendant to this environment. I think it's obscuring. What is an otherwise economic decision making system by investors, that it's throwing a lot of up in the air in a single let's say, three or four week sessions, three or four weeks of sessions as it assimilates that volatility may dissipate, but ultimately it's something we need to brace forth throughout. I think the bulk of the first half of the year.

Oh, without question, tim without question, and see a lot more volatility, right, Because you also have to keep in mind this is taking place after two incredible years in the S and P five hundred. Consecutive years in the S and P five hundred, right, we needed to have a little bit of a shake up of optimism and sentiment in the environment. We needed a little bit of rerating that would keep people's expectation more in line with reality. So I think it's a process. There's so much emotion attendant to this environment. I think it's obscuring. What is an otherwise economic decision making system by investors, that it's throwing a lot of up in the air in a single let's say, three or four week sessions, three or four weeks of sessions as it assimilates that volatility may dissipate, but ultimately it's something we need to brace forth throughout. I think the bulk of the first half of the year.

So if we go by this tarif imp implementation paralysis Doug and if investors are shrinking their time horizons, can we shrink it so far down that the US market something Tim ask one of our guests last week that the US market becomes uninvestable.

So if we go by this tarif imp implementation paralysis Doug and if investors are shrinking their time horizons, can we shrink it so far down that the US market something Tim ask one of our guests last week that the US market becomes uninvestable.

No, I don't think so at all, Carol. I think, if anything, this tip is making the market more investible. But thankfully break it down by asse class, So within stocks right length, in the time of your deployment, out of respect to the expectation of ongoing volatility, capitalize on the persistence of price dislocation. Focus on the destination, not the journey. We're all told, Oh, I don't worry about the destinations. The journey that matters when you're making investment decisions. It's the destination that matters. So there's going to be some gruelingly volatile sessions, but ultimately, I think this economy arrives on firmer footing, so it becomes that much more investible with every extended period of dislocation for bonds. Right, that's really challenging right now, Right, we have the opportunity to extend some duration after the FED began cutting rates last fall, which is a little bit perverse and and counterintuitive. But now because of the equity volatility, you see a massive rush in a fixed income so that duration extension potential has really been has really been contracted. It just doesn't exist as much as it was as much as it did. And then you have the administration. And there was a great piece in Bloomberg over the weekend that was written by Liz capl McCormick and in HJAA that talked about the best input, right, the best input is a real thing, right where this administration is going to try to suppress interest rates with energy efficiency, with reducing the number of auctions at designated dates, which is going to suppres demand, which is going to increase price in lower yields, and then also the result of some spending cuts. Should the extract any through this DOGE initiative. So there's really good opportunities and fixed income, but I think it's going to become more and more challenging, you know, over a period of time, because I don't see rates really running and spiking in the yield care of getting super steep anytime soon.

No, I don't think so at all, Carol. I think, if anything, this tip is making the market more investible. But thankfully break it down by asse class, So within stocks right length, in the time of your deployment, out of respect to the expectation of ongoing volatility, capitalize on the persistence of price dislocation. Focus on the destination, not the journey. We're all told, Oh, I don't worry about the destinations. The journey that matters when you're making investment decisions. It's the destination that matters. So there's going to be some gruelingly volatile sessions, but ultimately, I think this economy arrives on firmer footing, so it becomes that much more investible with every extended period of dislocation for bonds. Right, that's really challenging right now, Right, we have the opportunity to extend some duration after the FED began cutting rates last fall, which is a little bit perverse and and counterintuitive. But now because of the equity volatility, you see a massive rush in a fixed income so that duration extension potential has really been has really been contracted. It just doesn't exist as much as it was as much as it did. And then you have the administration. And there was a great piece in Bloomberg over the weekend that was written by Liz capl McCormick and in HJAA that talked about the best input, right, the best input is a real thing, right where this administration is going to try to suppress interest rates with energy efficiency, with reducing the number of auctions at designated dates, which is going to suppres demand, which is going to increase price in lower yields, and then also the result of some spending cuts. Should the extract any through this DOGE initiative. So there's really good opportunities and fixed income, but I think it's going to become more and more challenging, you know, over a period of time, because I don't see rates really running and spiking in the yield care of getting super steep anytime soon.

One last question I want to ask you, Doug, what is the cost though potentially of TERRORFF policies pushing back on allies, upsetting and possibly upending the global supply chains. We talked about maybe levees or costs on Chinese ships and the impact that could have on the global supply chain and global shipping. I mean, none of this go you know, goes unnoticed by the US economy potentially, and a lot of it can be inflationary. What is the potential impact so that the US market becomes a hard place to invest in? And just got about thirty seconds.

One last question I want to ask you, Doug, what is the cost though potentially of TERRORFF policies pushing back on allies, upsetting and possibly upending the global supply chains. We talked about maybe levees or costs on Chinese ships and the impact that could have on the global supply chain and global shipping. I mean, none of this go you know, goes unnoticed by the US economy potentially, and a lot of it can be inflationary. What is the potential impact so that the US market becomes a hard place to invest in? And just got about thirty seconds.

Yeah, I think those are really big questions, Carol, because I think you know a worst case scenario, which would be the US or igustraining consecutive unforced errors. It does then lessen the attractiveness of foreign capital took them into our markets, which becomes problematic. Now the on shoring. The reinteraction the manufacturer in our economy is going to happen. It's just a longer process. I'm hopeful that kind of the underlying forces of collective profit seeking self interest globally will overtake sort of the short term initiatives of the new administration.

Yeah, I think those are really big questions, Carol, because I think you know a worst case scenario, which would be the US or igustraining consecutive unforced errors. It does then lessen the attractiveness of foreign capital took them into our markets, which becomes problematic. Now the on shoring. The reinteraction the manufacturer in our economy is going to happen. It's just a longer process. I'm hopeful that kind of the underlying forces of collective profit seeking self interest globally will overtake sort of the short term initiatives of the new administration.

All Right, Always good to check in.

All Right, Always good to check in.

Doug B.

Doug B.

Weill Doug Cioka, CEO and partner at Kavar Capital Partners joining us from Leewood, Kansas. About a one and a half billion in assets under management. This is Bluebot

Weill Doug Cioka, CEO and partner at Kavar Capital Partners joining us from Leewood, Kansas. About a one and a half billion in assets under management. This is Bluebot