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Some time to say good afternoon or is it good evening now to Liam Dan New Zealand Herald Business Editor at Large.

Some time to say good afternoon or is it good evening now to Liam Dan New Zealand Herald Business Editor at Large.

Liam Highday, Tim.

Liam Highday, Tim.

So well New Zealand's climbed out of recession. Woo whoo.

So well New Zealand's climbed out of recession. Woo whoo.

Yeah, it's really hard to know.

Yeah, it's really hard to know.

Look that it was a better than expected result. It's definitely a good thing. Let's say we're who before we get into the final details of going through the economist reports that they're very quick to move into cautious mode and start telling us, you know why, we can't be celebrating yet. But look, it's better than the alternative, which was that it came in worse than expected. I think people were probably feeling a bit more gloomy, certainly in the cities.

Look that it was a better than expected result. It's definitely a good thing. Let's say we're who before we get into the final details of going through the economist reports that they're very quick to move into cautious mode and start telling us, you know why, we can't be celebrating yet. But look, it's better than the alternative, which was that it came in worse than expected. I think people were probably feeling a bit more gloomy, certainly in the cities.

I think.

I think.

So the economy grew zero point seven in the December quarter, better than the economists had predicted. Nikola Willis was upbeat on the show an hour ago.

So the economy grew zero point seven in the December quarter, better than the economists had predicted. Nikola Willis was upbeat on the show an hour ago.

Let's we're turning the corner, which is what New Zealanders need after a very tough time with high inflation, high interest rates and growth bouncing along the bottom. The numbers today are better than was forecast and tell us that recovery is underway.

Let's we're turning the corner, which is what New Zealanders need after a very tough time with high inflation, high interest rates and growth bouncing along the bottom. The numbers today are better than was forecast and tell us that recovery is underway.

So actually, she didn't sound as up beat as I thought she would be, maybe because we're still digging ourselves out.

So actually, she didn't sound as up beat as I thought she would be, maybe because we're still digging ourselves out.

She knows, she's got to be a bit cautious.

She knows, she's got to be a bit cautious.

Right, Yeah, Look, Look, this quarter we're currently in has felt like it hasn't been a boomer. We've seen some fairly grim consumer confidence numbers in the last week or so, and there's just a feeling that maybe you know, the uncertainty around well, the global economy, but also things like you know, New Zealand's housing market just hasn't surged back quite as quickly as people might have hoped from the lower interest rates. And you know, the things that underpinned this GDP result were stronger tourism, which which sort of lifted retail spending and spending by tourists did some of the categories. And of course the really good you know, dairy and meat export conditions we've had and prices we've had has lifted the primary sector.

Right, Yeah, Look, Look, this quarter we're currently in has felt like it hasn't been a boomer. We've seen some fairly grim consumer confidence numbers in the last week or so, and there's just a feeling that maybe you know, the uncertainty around well, the global economy, but also things like you know, New Zealand's housing market just hasn't surged back quite as quickly as people might have hoped from the lower interest rates. And you know, the things that underpinned this GDP result were stronger tourism, which which sort of lifted retail spending and spending by tourists did some of the categories. And of course the really good you know, dairy and meat export conditions we've had and prices we've had has lifted the primary sector.

But then you know, in the.

But then you know, in the.

Cities, which is where I'm doing most of my living, you know, people are still struggling, you know, with the cost of living, and with with sort of insecurity about jobs and rising unemployment and those sort of things. So I think, you know, it's not necessarily a straight line recovery, and.

Cities, which is where I'm doing most of my living, you know, people are still struggling, you know, with the cost of living, and with with sort of insecurity about jobs and rising unemployment and those sort of things. So I think, you know, it's not necessarily a straight line recovery, and.

We have to be prepared for them, you know, maybe to stare a little bit.

We have to be prepared for them, you know, maybe to stare a little bit.

I'd like to think we don't go back, you know, we will keep growing.

I'd like to think we don't go back, you know, we will keep growing.

I think, well, you know, it's hard for the average sort of person to work out what the reactions should be. So what's the reaction of the country's economists.

I think, well, you know, it's hard for the average sort of person to work out what the reactions should be. So what's the reaction of the country's economists.

Well, yes, definitely cautious.

Well, yes, definitely cautious.

You know, there's saying I think they're agreeing that is, you know, it is a corner turned or the first step on a road to recovery. I think that the Kiwi bank guys said, and even even Stephen Topless at ben Zi, who's pretty pretty cautious, he was saying it's the start of recovery. But you know, he points out that on the current numbers, you know, on the GDP per capita, you've got to get to twenty twenty eight before we're back to the to the kind of peaks we had before the downturn started. So that's a long slow recovery. On a per capita basis, which it was nice to see per capita GDP turn, but that's partly a fact a function of few you know, slar population growth, so that sort of sorts itself.

You know, there's saying I think they're agreeing that is, you know, it is a corner turned or the first step on a road to recovery. I think that the Kiwi bank guys said, and even even Stephen Topless at ben Zi, who's pretty pretty cautious, he was saying it's the start of recovery. But you know, he points out that on the current numbers, you know, on the GDP per capita, you've got to get to twenty twenty eight before we're back to the to the kind of peaks we had before the downturn started. So that's a long slow recovery. On a per capita basis, which it was nice to see per capita GDP turn, but that's partly a fact a function of few you know, slar population growth, so that sort of sorts itself.

Yeah, I think I enjoyed the I think it was Qbank's economists you said, we're crawling out of recession, which was slowly we're putting it. What are the chances of the number being revised down later on, because you know we've seen it happen before him.

Yeah, I think I enjoyed the I think it was Qbank's economists you said, we're crawling out of recession, which was slowly we're putting it. What are the chances of the number being revised down later on, because you know we've seen it happen before him.

We yeah, look, it's entirely possible.

We yeah, look, it's entirely possible.

I mean could could be revised up to I mean that the difficulty is it seems to be that capturing everything that moves in the economy a very difficult task and you've got to get it for the record absolutely right. So if it turns out that they've they need longer and you know, it becomes fair that it could be revised.

I mean could could be revised up to I mean that the difficulty is it seems to be that capturing everything that moves in the economy a very difficult task and you've got to get it for the record absolutely right. So if it turns out that they've they need longer and you know, it becomes fair that it could be revised.

But I wouldn't panic about that. It's it's it's it's like we had some bad.

But I wouldn't panic about that. It's it's it's it's like we had some bad.

Revisions that that you know that that really slammed home the pain of the recession in the middle of last year. But the latest numbers there wasn't too much revision there to the to the earlier numbers. I think, I think, you know, we are seeing you know, New Zealand does tend to hum when the dairy industry hums, and that's obviously good tourism coming back to sort of pre COVID levels. At least you can say this is the basics of the economy coming right. So if the if these things continue to stay buoyant, and then interest rates continue to fall, then you start to get the frothier stuff, the consumer spending and and and and things, you know, central city workers and things starting to feel more confident and hopefully that follows and this this might be the kind of psychological boost that helps us.

Revisions that that you know that that really slammed home the pain of the recession in the middle of last year. But the latest numbers there wasn't too much revision there to the to the earlier numbers. I think, I think, you know, we are seeing you know, New Zealand does tend to hum when the dairy industry hums, and that's obviously good tourism coming back to sort of pre COVID levels. At least you can say this is the basics of the economy coming right. So if the if these things continue to stay buoyant, and then interest rates continue to fall, then you start to get the frothier stuff, the consumer spending and and and and things, you know, central city workers and things starting to feel more confident and hopefully that follows and this this might be the kind of psychological boost that helps us.

On our way.

On our way.

Excellent. Hey, thanks so much, Liam. That's Liam down, New Zealand Hero Business editor at

Excellent. Hey, thanks so much, Liam. That's Liam down, New Zealand Hero Business editor at

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