Beating The Book: Guessing Lines Week 16

Published Dec 21, 2020, 6:08 PM

South Point Hotel Casino Sportsbook Director Chris Andrews brings over 40 years of bookmaking experience to the table in this weekly series designed to find an edge in the upcoming week's NFL betting lines. Andrews and Host Gill Alexander give their thoughts on every game on the Week 16 slate on Monday's Beating The Book: Guessing Lines Week 16 podcast (December 21, 2020).

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Check it on Man, no down Man, Happy Holiday, Good Monday. Mornay is a numbers game right here in Visa and the Sports Betting Network and Visa dot Com. The Visa have Fubo Sling and Game Plus guessing lines for Week sixteen of the National Football League. That's what we're here for. Christie Andrews have joined us momentarily to do that. Within the exercise, we hope to extract some value. First look at week sixteen lines. But first, yeah, I wasn't watching anything yesterday. As soon the Rams got through, right, Jason, that was Yeah, they didn't get through. They didn't get through. Yeah. Well, let me just say this, by the way, I had the Rams, in case you're wondering, uh as brutal as that was as big as the disappointment is of running into that iceberg in week number fifteen. I can only take solace in the fact that, for not one second was I gonna pick anyone else, Not one second. The Rams were always the planned team. By the way, the sixteen of us remaining that had the Rams, all of us took the Rams correctly. There was no other option, was not even for not even a moment's thought. So in that respect, you kind of just taken You're like, well planned it as well as it could was. It wasn't like there's any self loathing involved, which is different from previous weeks had you lost, because there were other options and there would have been a big self loathing factor as you lost. But yesterday, uh nope, any given Sunday, that's the old phrase. And the Rams couldn't get it done as seventeen and a half point favorites against the New York Jets couldn't get it done. Total no show. First half. The Jared golf face got us reminiscent of the j Cutler face and the Joe Flacco face which preceded it in its ancestry, the Jared Goff face. We'll get it in all that more and more as the as the show goes on. But that's it. I'm out. I'm Cramer. I'm out. Sixty five left, by the way, sixteen Rams and one Niners, one Bold Niners player yesterday in Circus Survivor, so sixty five remain headed into well those Steelers tonight. I suppose that could happen also, but sixty five, as of this moment, remaining in Circus survivor. Congratulations to all of them. Uh, and good for you to have avoided the rams pitfall yesterday. By the way, I said many times on this show, Week sixteen was gonna be dicey. Week seventeen was certainly going to be squirrely. There was no guarantee we're gonna get through the whole way. But I never saw Week fifty coming, never never gave it a moment's thought. Buddy, he's out too. He had the rams A mall still in it. Someone else we know who doesn't want to talk about it. Let's bring him in to do some guestig lines. Week sixteen, we'll talk more about survivors. They show goes on. I'm sure he is, my misch book. He runs the south Point Hotel Casino right here behind us, at the lovely south Point Hotel Casino, the tip of the strip. It's chrisy Andrews. Good morning to you, Chris. What's going on, pam um Let me, let's just put it this way. I personally was very happy with the RAM outcome. Yes, I'm sure you are. I'm sure you are. People can draw from that, but they will. People can understand a Chris he hates me be he has no heart or see, maybe he doesn't want to talk about something that's a uh well, congratulations to all again who went through. But but as I said, you know, hey, that's the game. That's the game. That's how hard it is to get through to the end. There's always pitfalls. You can't see. How did you do as a book? Yesterday and this weekend in football? Yesterday was terrible, terrible. Uh. From the beginning of the week we had lots of teasers running, not not so much. From Thursday that wasn't much. But Saturday, both favorites one and you know, one covered one didn't. But you have to start looking at teasers and the teasers and a couple of ball rams blocked out a bunch of teasers. No, no, they didn't have that many people teased from seventeen down to eleven. I mean, it's not a brilliant teaser. I don't know what you would be thinking if you did that, but I think I'm sure a couple of guys did. But otherwise, you look up and down the slate. You know, the favorites won a lot of games. I didn't cover all that many, but that's what really hurt us, and of course the biggest, you know, one of the biggest action games the year was the Saints in Kansas City. You know, we're I'm trying to look with it. We open I think we opened three. We opened three and a half. It took the three and a half down three, back up to three and a half, back down the three. Then all of a sudden, breeze is planned, so we go to two and a half. You know, we're stated at three. So we got bad, but we went back, we went down to three and a half. We a lot of guys taking the plus three. I finally had to go to an half. They laid it back up. I mean it. That game could not possibly have come worse. It was, you know, so huge action and from three and a half to two and a half because of you know, action of course, but and uh quarterback decision on the part of New Orleans. Um, just everything played into the hands of killing us, and and that that really hurt bad. I know exactly what that game crossed us, and it was I'll watch, So what are you gonna do? Crimere River, as I would say, Gil Alexander Christy ed, this is a numbers game right here at Visa, the sports betting network, Visa dot Com, the Visa that Food Boast linking game plus reviewing the week gone by heading into Guessing Lives for Week sixteen, I will say this, you know again, I was able to I didn't pre flop in terms of Survivor play, didn't pre flop the Jets, but I did get them in game when they were up thirteen to nothing. It was a coin flip. So I was able to make money on the Jets and my entire weekend, just to what you're talking about, Saturday was a massive winner for me, like one of my top ten of all time. Every college football game ended up going my way with the team. But the teasers that we talked about here on this show, and I said, I'm gonna do the teaser that everybody ought to be doing Buffalo Green Bay on Saturday and if you want to get frisky, put an Indie on Sunday. All of that worked out. So it just ended up being this great haul on the one side, and then this massive Survivor disappointment, which is absolutely brutal disappointment. But again for all the reasons I stated, there was never there was never a second I wasn't gonna pick the ramps, so you just gotta eat it. You gotta eat it. That's how it works. All right. Let's talk week sixteen. Let us start with Thursday night football. Where is it Friday? How's it worked this week? Yeah, it's Friday, Christmas Day, that's right. We have the Vikings at the st alright. Not much to say about the Vikings game yesterday. They lose to the Bears. Uh, and they lose in a game where they never they never led, they trailed the whole way versus Chicago. Chicago punted only once on the opening possession of the game. I think Minnesota had a had a pick in the end zone at one point, but other than that, really that was the only time they stopped the Bears the punt on their first possession. Cousins thirty five two seventy one, two touchdowns, one pick, sack three times, Cook for one thirty two in a touchdown. He always fills up a box score, so does Jefferson eight catches for one oh four four seven total yards. But if you're not stopping the other team doesn't matter. So Minnesota, yes, mathematically they're still alive at six and eight, but they're done zo. They're done zo. Now Bears very much alive. Will get to the Bears when we get there. And then, as you mentioned, New Orleans, New Orleans loses to the Chiefs by three. Uh. And when you look at this box score, Chris, I don't really understand how they lost by only three. It's amazing they they marquee game of the week by far. As you mentioned, they lose it thirty two to twenty nine. Um Breeze was fifteen of thirty four for two thirty four, three touchdowns are one pick, and he was sacked once. But he needed more than a full quarter to complete a pass or lead the Saints to a first down. His first completion came on his seventh pass of the game. It was in the second quarter. Alvin Kamaro yes eleven for fifty four on the ground, three catches forty yards and a touchdown through the air. But the the Saints had fifteen first downs to Kansas City's thirty three. They were one of ten on third down. Contrast that with Casey going nine of seventeen. They had ten penalties for ninety three yards. They were out time of possessioned if you will, by Kansas City forty one, fourteen to eighteen forty six, and yet they lost by three. They can clinch the NFC South with a win or a Tampa Bay loss next week, but as far as the number one seed, that is virtually done. So I'll say Saints by a touchdown, Saints by seven. Yeah, you're right on. You know, it's seven my numbers come day eight and a half, mostly because I just downgraded Minnesota. Uh, you know, they just look like they're ready to head south. You know, that's that's you know that that that's that for me. I mean, I think we know what New Orleans is, even though um, yeah, it was kind of miraculous yesterday. Yeah, breeze come out over six. You know when you see that from the Drew Brees, you know, uh, you know, yeah, they struggled. It was very difficult for them, but you know, they wound up hanging in there. And I'm I'm like, you listen, we need we didn't. We didn't have a big need in that game. Kind of needed New Orleans a little bit, you know, but not not much. Doesn't needed anything but a three, and of course that's what happened. But Minnesota, Yeah, I just I don't like this team, and you know every wise guy in town bet against them yesterday. Um, I see this. I see this team just heading south. So I'm gonna open seven. That's what it is. I even see one six and a half out there. But if I've see this trending higher, I'm gonna go higher because I think, uh not so much of the Saints are so much the right side of the Minnesota is the wrong side. It appears another Kirk Cousins season will end in middling nothingness. But we'll see Minnesota mathematically alive, but not much more than that. All right, Uh, Saturday games? Do we have Saturday? Yeah? It was Saturday morning? Yeah? All right? What we got Tampa at Detroit Tampa Bay yesterday sixty total yards in the first half versus Atlanta. Atlanta had a seventeen to nothing lead at the half um and then they had to seven lead, And as Ryan Clark said this morning, he said, you know, it's it's arians team when the game starts, and then when you fall seventeen down, then it becomes Brady's team. Rallies the Bucks from a pair of those uh those pair of seventeen point deficits. They trailed by seventeen and the third quarter that seven deficit lad the Bucks on five straight scoring drives four touchdowns in the field goal in the second half for a thirty one to twenty seven win over the stun Falcons included a first down given Shenan again on a measurement, but four hundred sixteen total yards UH for the Bucks. Brady was thirty one of forty five for three ninety two touchdowns note picks. He was sacked three times, Evans six for one ten eight excuse me, Antonio Brown five for ninety three and a touchdown. Devin White had three sacks. So Tampa Bay gets it done. We're the Falcons fans rank do you think in the Tom we hate Tom Brady mythology right behind all the A f c S teams right up there. Just brutal of course, to three deficit in the Super Bowl. Leaping to mind you said they're at Detroit. Detroit eliminated from playoff contention. Yesterday, They've allowed thirty plus points in four straight games. They've allowed forty plus US points four times this season, the most in the NFL, including yesterday when they lose the Tennessee forty six in a game quite frankly where Detroit had their opportunities but just couldn't keep up in the end. Stafford was thirty two for two fifty two, one touchdown, note picks. He was sacked zero times. Remember he played with UH with center Frank Ragnow and right tackle Tyrrell Crosby both out. Rag Now had the fractured throat. For those again scoring at home, Chase Daniel came in. He was five of six or fifty five, no touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked to zero as well. No, I was not sacked at all. Marvin Jones Jr. Ten for one twelve and a touchdown. But but the Lions were minus three in turnovers. That's all you need to know against the Titans. So they got housed in the end by three touchdowns. Uh, Tampa Bay minus seven. I will say at Detroit, I a little light. It's most eight. I see I see a seven and a half the nine. Um, well, I say, you know, I'm you can't be totally sold on this, Tampa baby. I think you know. Ryan Clark, you hit it right. Becomes Tom's team in the fourth quarter when they're losing and they might be losing by too much. I'm gonna open eight and a half. My numbers came to eleven in this game. Detroy just another team that I think has gone south. I don't see them having much to play for here. So, like I said, I'm gonna open at eight and a half. And by the way, that Tampa game was one I kind of I kind of turned away in the third in the third quarter, you know, thinking well, here's one we need to knock out one teaser. We didn't knock out any we need to look out knock out one teaser game. I thought this was our game, you know, we had a lead. Um Campbell wasn't playing well, and it was but just didn't happen. But nonetheless, my numbers come a lot. Are my numbers come to eleven that I could be diminishing returns on that game, on that favorite, But I'm gonna open eight and half. I just think the Lions team just terrible. Nobody wants a bet and nobody wants a walks. No one wants anything to do with them. Someone opening the app, they'll probably bet me down. But it is the opening number. If you look around the internet, yeah, you know better about the betting activity at your shop of the on the lines of their defense is just atrocious, just absolutely atrocious. So I can't blame anyone Next Saturday. Also, I would assume, yes, we've got three on Saturday Night. I like that schedule. Niners at the Cardinals, Niners at the Cardinals. Uh Niners eliminated from playoff contention. They become the second Super Bowl runner up in the past thirteen seasons to finish with a losing record the next year, just the second and thirteen. Mullins thirty six. By the way, they lose to the Cowboys. I should mention that knocked out one brave survivor forty one to thirty three. They lose to Dallas. Mullins six for two nineteen two touchdowns, two picks, ack twice, Beth third in relief five of seven, but through the hail Mary at the end they got caught in the end zone. So it it up with a hundred yards and a touchdown. Born was on the receiving end of that four eight six at a touchdown. I can nine up set nine for seventy three at a touchdown. Four fifty eight total yards didn't matter. They lost, you know why because they were minus four in turnovers, all of which set up Dallas scores. That'll do it. It's all it takes. UH six This this coming game against Arizona will be the sixth of seven straight games outside of California for the Niners to finish the season after Santa Clara County band contact Sports over COVID nineteen issues. So they're vagabonds and remember um already Kyle Shanahana's on record as saying, Oh, my team's gonna be with their families on the holiday. So who knows how locked in the Niners will be for this game Arizona UH Eagles trailed them sixteen to nothing in the first quarter. I mean, Cardinals let it sixteen to nothing, but the Eagles rallied to tide at twenty six and the third quarter, Arizona responded with a go ahead touchdown drive cap by Kyler Murray's touchdown pass did DeAndre Hopkins corner Michael Jacquette was playing tight d on the play. Hopkins took the ball away anyway, held it with one hand as he fell past the pilot into the end zone. That made a lot of Arizona survivor players very happy, very sweaty game for them. Murray thirty six for four oh six, a career high three touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked once. First half, he threw for two dred sixty four yards and two touchdowns. Hurts by the way one seventy seven and three touchdowns in the first half. Philadelphia was playing without three of its four starters in the secondary because of injuries that ended up helping Hopkins nine catches for one s nited a touchdown, five hundred and twenty six total yards for the Cardinals to four twenty two for Philly in in in in a box score anomaly, the Cardinals were minus three in turnovers. They should have won this game going away, and a couple of those were in the red zone. But they do clinch a playoff berth with a win in the Chicago loss this coming week Arizona, I'll say minus m hmm. Let's see, this is a no man's land line for me. Somewhere between the re in the seven, I'll say five and a half. It's a hard one. Well, you're a little you're a little high. My numbers come to five, so I'm kind of with you. But this I'm looking around at two and a half and four, and I'm gonna open four. I'm gonna stay high on this one. I think a lot of things, you know, pan against the Niners. I would say more than point for the Cardinals. You mentioned Shanahan already talking about how his team is going to be able to spend time with his family, with their families over Christmas, and uh I think that. You know, they are vagabonds. They've been on the road, what six six weeks or something like that. Uh yeah, I just there's I see a lot of things pointing against the forty Niners and Cardinals coming off. You know, a nice win. They played, They played well, they had to turnovers that kept that game close. By the way, I thought that was another game where we might knock out a few teasers, but what wasn't to be. I'm gonna stay high. I'm gonna use four, but mostly three and a half is what seems low to me. Does seem low? Yeah, absolutely, specially knowing what we know about shanahan stance and the families of those Niners players. Let's do the last Saturday game here. Let's get this one before the break, Okay, Miami at the Las Vegas Races. Miami wins, again one they've They've won eight of ten nows and starting one in three. I had Miami yesterday. I did not understand that the New England Patriots lines all year long have made no sense to me. Week after week we've been in here, and that's the one team that I just do not understand. The lines on two was twenty of twenty six yesterday for one. That's it. That's it. Didn't throw the ball more than fifteen yards down field, no touchdowns, one pick, sack twice Ahmed twenty three for one touchdown. The Dolphins were seven of twelve on third down, one of one on fourth down against the past two hundred fifty rushing yards. They didn't have any of the receivers, so they went to the ground. It's not like New England didn't know that was gonna happen. Undrafted key Salvan Amen and veteran Matt Berrita combining for two hundred eight yards together to lead Miami to the two to twelve win over the Patriots. Thirty seven minutes twenty six seconds in time of possession over four for the Pats. They entered the game last in the league. The Dolphins did in yards per carry and Ahmed became the first a hundred yard rusher since twenty eighteen. Again, three most productive receivers were out. Davonte Parker with the Hamstringer came Grant with the hamstring, Mike Gatsicki the tight end with the shoulder. They're playing the Raiders. Raiders gonna be a little bit on extra rest here, but remember they lost Derek Carter the groin injury Thursday night against uh against the Chargers and that ridiculous coaching opera between Anthony Lynn and John Bruden. Mariotta was really good in relief seventeen of twenty eight two twenty six was a financial boon for him. Nine for eight eight and a touchdown on the ground. Waller unstoppable nine for one fifty and a touchdown four hundred forty nine totally yard. They could have won in overtime, but John Gruden just refused to continue with the read option um. All four of the Raiders games against the Chargers and the Chief have come down of the final play. I will say the Dolphins by three because I don't think home field matters. Yeah, it's two and a half. My numbers come to four. One of the mess with a three on this game, So I might open the two and a half unless I see it going higher. But that the Dolphins game yesterday, that was probably our best game today and it was I want to like you, Gil, I could not understand the theory behind that move. I just didn't get it. Uh. But it's kind of with the Dolphins all year that they seem to be betting against them quite a bit. I know my numbers are always way higher on the Dolphins. It's been a good team for us this year. Like I said, I will open to an half, but if I see it going higher, I'm gonna go and get up that at three. Uh you got. I'm not sure who's gonna start. It looks like a good chance is gonna be Marriota for the Raiders. I'm not sure that influences the number all that much. He played pretty well. Um, but uh yeah, I like the Dolphins. Hearing this spot, I think, to Apps and Shade Cheap, I think there should be at least three, and like I said, my numbers from the four, I think it should be over the three. Yeah. I didn't get the New England move. I didn't get the Broncos move against the Bills on Saturday. Those were two of my contest picks. Didn't understand either of those. Just funny like almost overthinking kind of things by the market. Those two, uh, those two cases, Like I said, it's it's a weird weekend financial boon and then the Survivor disaster. We'll come back. We're guessing lines week sixteen on the numbers game in visa these sports betting that we're okay, we are on the Sunday and we have the Broncos at the Chargers. Broncos at the Chargers. Is this an afternoon game? Early game? It's an afternoon game. And this this got moved to the afternoon's first in the rotation. Sorry, afternoon, let's do first to the rotation. We'll do it out of order for this one. Well ourn exception here Jason, Jason's all the discompopulated flexible, Okay, right here behind uh Denver at the Chargers because it's a real winner of a game here. Drew Lock Saturday against the Bills was twenty thirty two for one thirty two, one touchdown, no pis sack three times one thirty two. Fourth consecutive losing season for the Broncos. First team ever to go five years without making the playoffs following a Super Bowl title. How about that first team ever after winning the Super Bowl to go five straight years not making the playoffs. Uh, Josh Allen just dismantled their secondary. Uh that secondary had lost five cornerbacks in two weeks. Five corners in two weeks. Did not understand, and yet the line moved towards the Bronco was like, I just don't understand. Brandon McManus went on the COVID nineteen reserve list. Taylor Russellino missed a fifty one yard and two extra points, So that was the fall out of that. That didn't help. Denver got housed by Buffalo in that game on Saturday, and teaser leg for everybody. Chargers, as we talked about Thursday, they'll be on extra rest. Justin Herbert Rookie of the Year come on thirty two for three four ten, two touchdowns note picks one sack against the Raiders. NFL rookie record now with with his seventh yard game twenty seven passing scores on the year, that ties Baker Mayfield for the most buy a rookie in NFL history. And he's still got two games to beat it. All that said, meg game to five and nine teams going nowhere chargers minus. I'll say four, but I know Anthony Lynn will make this, should make this lower. But I'll say four. I don't think. I think a couple of three and a halves out there with pretty heavy juice on the dog, but mostly three with juice on the favorite of three twenty three quarter. I'm like, I'm not sure which one I'm gonna over. By the way, my numbers when I was you know, just pure power rating, adding, adding and subtracting, my numbers came to two chargers to and so that was to the point that's way too I'm gonna have to go make an adjustment here somewhere that's there. I'd laid two and a heart beat. I'm gonna debate between three and three and a half where I'm gonna open, uh, because both sides with with either of those numbers, I have a lot of juice attached, you know, So I'm not sure which one I'm gonna open yet. I got un till nine o'clock to the side. But somewhere in there, three years nine o'clock, Grizzy, that's the deadline right at the end of the show, self imposed deadline. If they don't have corners. Still always check the injury reports on these, especially this time of year. But if dever doesn't have corners, I will take the Chargers there. All right, let's do one more. The Browns at the Jets, Browns at the Jets. Do we have to talk about the Jets. Brown's win yesterday? That game against the Giants was one of the worst viewing experiences ever unless you were hitting the under the whole time that it was beautiful or Cleveland. Cleveland beats the Giants last night, uh, in case you missed it, and they did so in very ho hum fashion, very ho hume fashion, by the final score of twenty to six. Mayfield seven of thirty two, twenty seven of thirty two, five in completions the whole game for two nine seven yards, two touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked once. He led to ninety five yard touchdown drives. Brown's come very close now to ending a seventeen year playoff drought With the six win. They were nine of thirteen on third down. Giants couldn't get him off the field, highest win total ten now since their n Expansion rebirth or ten and four. And then there's the Jets. As I mentioned of course at the top with Survivor, the Jets got me. After fifty one weeks, thirteen games without a win, the Jets finally are in the chance to celebrate Uh no longer in position. Though for the topic in the NFL Draft, that was the that was the real life fallout. Fallout in quotes of that win is that now the Jaguars, by strength of schedule, have the tiebreaker for the number one pick in the draft, and Trevor Lawrence uh Jets scored on their opening possession for an eighth straight game. Donald was twenty two of thirty one for two oh seven one touchdown note picks. He was sacked twice. But here's what happened in that game, and there's so many things for those of us who had the Rams in Survivor. There was a punt block by the Jets that got them three points. Rams just couldn't do anything in the first half. They didn't show up. Rams touchdown was called back. It was a go ahead touchdown with seven thirty five to play, cam Akers eighteen yard but it was a it was wiped out by a holding penalty, but it was a legit holding penalty. The one that gets me, though, is there's a couple of them. One Nassimba Webster had a thirty four yard punt return after that on a branden Man punt. Branden Man, the punter made the tackle and I'd love to see the all twenty two footage or a wide shot. It looked like Webster could have just cut to the outside and gone to the house. Instead, he cut inside and the punter tripped him up. And then with four minutes left, instead of attempting a game tying fifty five yard field goal for Matt Gay, Sean McVeigh decides to go for it and Jared Goff goes downfield throws a bomb incomplete with that Jared Goff face Again Have I mentioned that yet? Today? So many regrets. Jets win, Jags loss puts the Jags in the driver's seat. As I said for Trevor Lawrence, we'll come back. We'll get Chrissie's reaction. I'll say the Browns by ten. Yeah, once again, I like your number better. It's mostly nine and a half. I see, I see like two tens up there with considerable juice on the dog debating on this one too. Probably open nine and a half. That is the number that's out there, But my my number is some the thirteen and a half um again probably diminishing returns on the side of the favorite there maybe looks a little bit too high, but it's cleaning teams really really good. They're they're a good, good team. But I gotta tell you that the wise guys don't have any trouble betting on the Jets, which can be night sometimes because the public has no trouble betting against him. I can tell you that, but probably one and a half. I reserved the rights to change on my mic go to TN on this one, But right now I think I'm an open nine and a half in in sixteen we you know fifteen parton me? You don't know sixteen No, because they didn't play Thanksgiving. So at a fifteen opportunities, I bet against the Jet, not bet against, but took the team against the Jets and survivor eight times out of those fifteen and the eighth one the eighth one bit me. But I will tell you along the way, there were a few of those, right, the Raiders being the most obvious where the Jets were not at all a laughable team. Against the Bills, they weren't a laughable team either, So they probably should be more than a one win team, let's be honest. Yet they are not, and it's the one win that takes them out of the number one position for Trevor Lawrence. They've covered like five out of the last six spreads. They started out oh and eight against the spread, and they've really come on strong. That was going to be my last time to bet against them or to have a team against them, but I couldn't get through Jared Golf Sean McVeigh. We'll get to Jared Goff's quote coming up later. All right, what's next? The Bengals at the type We don't need much time on this. Bengals yet be even worse. Bengals at the Texans. Uh, Bengals have not played yet. The Bengals play the Steelers tonight. Steelers fourteen point favorites. Fourteen point favorites at the Bengals, who will be led by Ryan Finley tonight, so says Zack Taylor, that shouldn't change much. Houston loses to the Colts, and they do so on the final possession yet again. Yeah. Good. The previous game against the the Cults, it was a snap down six points they were they were gold to goos. Situation down six last, just over a minute left in the game. They snap it to Deshaun Watson. It was a little low and outside. He couldn't get the handle. The Culture cover and win this one. Oh my goodness, Kiki Khutai on the way to the house to tie it up, at least extra point away from tying, and it gets poked out by Darius Leonard and the Colts recover and they beat the Texans. Uh. Colts do twenty seven to twenty. Amazing that both games between these two teams ended up that way. Deshaun Watson thirty three or forty one for three seventy three, two touchdowns not picks. He was sacked five times, though he always gets sacked a lot. Uh. David Johnson eleven for one oh six, eight of fourteen on third downs. The Texans were one of two on fourth. I mean it says more about the Colts. The Colts couldn't get them off the field. Chris four twenty five total yards for the Texans, but minus two in turnovers. Again the biggest one being the one I just described. Uh, no need to blue labor this. We haven't seen Cincinnati yet. But you know, usually I say in these situations, assuming there's no injuries, but like, I don't even know who the who the Bengals could have injured that would change would change this any hate to hate to be cras about it. I'll say Houston minus. I mean it's more than a touchdown. I'll say seven and a half. Yeah, I came to seven half, it's really nine. I like the nine better. I don't think I made a proper adjustment for the Ryan Finley uh starting jobs Cincinnati Bengals quarterback position. So uh, like I said, my numbers coming to seven half, but I they got to light. I like the nine better and that's when I'm gonna open. But again, why let's talk too much about this game? Yeah? No, so far, so far, I think I like Arizona, and I like Arizona the most I think over San Francisco given all of San Francisco's vagabond ways, and I think I like Miami. If you're what was the Miami line you're putting up again two and a half. By the way, what the Raiders. I mean, other than that miracle win against the Jets, what have they lost like six out of last seven or something like that. Oh yeah, we really didn't hit on that, and we talked about the Raiders. But there's another team head itself. I mean, they were they looked like a lock for the playoffs halfway through the year and they've they've really gone south. They did they did this exact same thing last year, exact same thing last year, just you know, good record midway through and then full collapse. Okay, let's do one more here, all right. How there's an interesting one. Colts at the Steelers. Colts at the Steelers. Steelers, we haven't seen either yet. Again, they play the Bengals tonight, fourteen point favorites on the road. Here, I will say, assuming no injuries right to the Steelers in any key positions. Indianapolis Beach Houston both into Houston games. As I mentioned, one score closing minute, knocking at the door, Houston fumbling Coute losing it with nineteen seconds left yesterday, Ball goes into the end zone, Philip rivers through a tiebreaking touchdown past the Zach Pascal with one forty seven left, preceding that before Leonard forced Kiki Gutata fumble twenty win. Texans rallied from an early fourteen to nothing deficit to tie the score at twenty midway through the fourth quarter. So the Colts. Here's the thing. A lot of people think the Colts defense is really, really good. I'm not so sure. Rivers ended up twenty two twenty eight yesterday for two touchdowns. No Pixie was sacked once, Chicobe were set one Kerry two yards. We know what that was. That was a snake. That's all you have to do. But the Coults were plus two in turnovers, as I mentioned. So Indianapolis jockeying for playoff position at Pittsburgh, which you could assume it's a get right game for the Steelers tonight, although we could have assumed that against the Rams about the Rams yesterday too, so you never know. But I will say Pittsburgh minus Here's the thing. Pittsburgh's got no running game and they've got no creativity on offense. Their defense is down a couple of men in of course Dupree in Bush, but still good. I mean, I'll say Pittsburgh minus three because I don't know what else to make it. Well, it's two and a half. Pittsburgh a favorite, I gotta tell you, and far of it is just me being me. I lowered the Steelers power rating like five points over the last couple of weeks. I mean, so I actually have the Colts a slight favorite, like a one point favorite. And I listen, I just don't like what I see out of the Steeler team. Yeah. I think Laethlisberger actually has had a hell of a year, but they never stretched the defense. Every pass is one of these short passes, and you know you had to pick six last week. You know, these guys sit on these routes. You know, they don't have any respect for anybody going long anymore. And then they can't run the ball at all either. Uh you know, is this a get right game for the Steelers nite? Let me, as a Steeler fan, let me say I hope so. Because they've got a couple of weeks to get some things straightened out. They better do it quick, and I'm not sure they have the personnel to actually do it. Um, So I'm gonna open two and a half. You know, I think I see two and a half and some juice, But I did not like the Steelers a lot. They really show me something tonight, and no matter what they do tonight, they're playing the Bengals. You know, you can just kind of put that in your back pocket and say, Okay, it was just a bank. So I thought, I'm gonna be that Swede tonight. Unless they really forget the running games, they need to throw the ball law and they just don't do it. Maybe I don't know, if Roethlisberger doesn't have time or what, but they just don't do it. Maybe it's his injury, Roethlisberger's elbow. I'm beginning to think that it's just at the end of the season, we're just he's just not able to do it anymore. Or a game he's throwing it plenty. But you know, Juju never I don't. I don't know if Juju ever became the receiver we thought he would be initially. Maybe, and it's certainly big Ben has not helped by all the drops right between Ebron and Deonte Johnson just drop fest Um. But I'm I'm I'm with you all that. By the way, just to clarify some things, the Raiders were six and three after nine games this year, they've lost four or five. The only game they won the mirracle goal against the Jets. So there's the answer to that question. And uh, Las Vegas. Chris chimes in earlier about what I was saying about how the the Patriots criminally overrated, it seems by the market every week. His comment was, metrics had Pats um Let's see, oh, they failed to account for the forty five to nothing nonsense win versus the Chargers, skewed numbers and lots of garbage stats by the Pats versus the Rams as well. That might have something to do with it um as well. So just him chiming in on that. Interesting. We're halfway through. Let's get one more. We'll start here, I'll give a guess and then we'll get to it after the break. Bears that the Jaguars Bears. That the Jaguars Bears. As we mentioned, they beat the Vikings. Uh and the Bears go to seven and seven and are legitimately now legitimately in the playoff picture outside looking in, but still in it. Strabiskie fifteen for two oh two, one touchdown, one pick sacked once. They never trailed against the Vikings. David Montgomery thirty two for one forty six two touchdowns. That one forty six is a career high. As I mentioned, Chicago punt it only once in that game, on the opening possession. And then there's Jacksonville. Jacksonville. Now with their loss and the Jets win, they have the number one pick if they lose out, Trevor Lawrence ties longest losing streak, by the way, their thirteen loss in a row. Remember, they won the first game of the season against the Colts, knocked out fort of survivors. Haven't won since sixty one total yards in the first half versus the Ravens sixty one. Gardner minshow twenty two twenty six two touchdowns, he was not He did not throw a pick, but he was sacked five times. I don't know if Min shows any much better than Glennon is. Probably is. But Trevor Lawrence on the clock, I'll say Chicago. I haven't put much thought into these spreads and they haven't been that far off. To be honest with you, I'll say Chicago minus seven and a half. We'll take that to break and we'll continue with this second half of the week. Sixteens late with Chrissie Andrews right here on a numbers game at best these sports betting network. Yeah, you're you're, you're right on. There's even some sevens out there. Um, once again my numbers come to tan. I you know, I think, first of all, I think the Bears could Trabinsky could do well against the Jacksonville team. That again, I think they've just kind of given up. They know it's gonna be a whole new regime in there next year, so I don't see them playing with any intensity. And the Bears, like you said, they're they're suddenly in the playoffs hunt. But more than that, I mean every time teams step on the field on a Sunday, I mean they are, they're competitive. It's how how competitive are they during the course of the week in their preparation. Um, I like the higher number. I like I said, I see seven, so I'm gonna open seven half. That might take it off me if they do, God bless them. I think this should be higher. Um, Jacksonville legacid. They gave up and Drabinsky can play, you know, let's say nearly is expected when they drafted him against them inferior defense like this, so uh, you know, seven half it is. But if I see, Bears started out the season five and one, lost six in a row, and have won their last two against the Texans and the Vikings yesterday again a final score yesterday have thirty three to twenty seven, but never felt like the Vikings really had a shot, even though the final score was at the six points. All right, let's let's do another. Okay, Carolina, you wanted to talk about against your Washington football team. Yes, the Washington football team towering over the standings of the NFC East towering. Uh, Carolina, let's start there. Carolina has lost eight of their last nine games, eight of nine. Uh, keep play against the Packers. Excuse me, yeah. Against the Packers on Saturday, they were trailing fourteen to three. In the second quarter. Carolina had first in goal at the one when Teddy Bridgewater tries leaping over the line in Green Bay's Chris Barnes not box the ball loose. Kevin King recovers the fumble, races for eight yards before more brought Dj Moore brings him down. But that was the moment, right He tried the Drew Brees wave thing and it got knocked out. He never got to the goal line. And got knocked out of his hands. And that really was everything in that game, because second half Carolina completely stifled the Packers. Packers were lucky to hold on, like Aaron Rodgers was not happy about that win, lucky to hold on to the victory there. And for those of us who had teasers, that was more of a sweat than we wanted on the Packers. But here's the deal that I wanted to talk about. By the way, Bridgewater twenty one of thirty five for two fifty eight, no touchdowns, no picks. He was sack three times four for twenty six on the ground with a touchdown, but again that fumble loss. They outscored Green Bay thirteen to three and out gained them two d fourteen to forty nine. In the second half. They hold the Packers to forty nine second half yards. DJ Moore six for one thirty one thirty one. Here's what I wanted to talk about, Matt rule. Down twenty four to thirteen to seventeen left with one time out left in the game. Bridgewater too more deep pass forty yard play first and ten at the green Bay fifteen with two oh four left, and Matt rule, And I loved this move elects to kick the field goal, Chris, two oh four left. They just hit a big play there down the leven and he says, you know what, I don't care that we're fifteen yards away from the end zone. Get out there. Joey's like kicked the thirty three yard or he did. He made then the subsequent kick through the end zone, still north of two minutes to oh four left, and they got a shot. By the way, it's Gil Alexander, It's Chris Andrews. This is guessing lines week sixteen of the National Football League right here on Visa in the Sports Betting Network on a numbers game. As we look back on the past weekend, look forward to the next and try to extract some value your first look at the upcoming week's lines, try to handicap and uh lay down some bets here on first impressions. So in that of doing the conventional thing that most coaches do, which is, all right, we're this close to the end zone, let's get the touchdown first, You'll see some coaches now do the Madden thing. If you've played mad and long enough, Oh, let's kick the field goal first, because then you know we'll have more time on the clock. Matt Rule did it earlier than I've ever seen anybody do it before, and he was really sharp on it because he knew, he goes, I've only got one time out left. I need to use this two minute warning to my advantage. I need that stoppage of the plot. Ye, and it was I thought that right. He played it right, and they and the defense did hold them and they were able to get the ball back. It didn't end up matriculating the ball down the field, but at least the strategy was correct. Because I saw a lot of people on Twitter saying, I can't believe he did that. It was absolutely the right thing to do. You thought that the key, Yeah, he did. He did that with two oh four. I think he knew he needed that extra time out that he was gonna get with a two minute warning because he didn't have one. Uh listen, I know they played terrible in the last couple of weeks, but they got the right guy. I think it. Coach. You know, they need a lot of help up and down that roster, but they got the right guy. Coach. I think he's going to be successful in this league. I really do. That was a bold move on his part that he probably knew he was gonna get criticized for. Still needed a miracle to pull out to win, but that gave him the best chance of winning that game. And by the way, that was great for US. Eight was a great number. Four, a lot better than eleven. It was really applauding that division. The Joey Slive field goal significant to some and that's why betters were some betters were losing their minds. There was absolutely the right football thing to do and good for Matt rule. And here is the breaking news this morning. The Panthers have fired their gm UH. They fired they they fired their longtime gm UH Marty Hernie, who's responsible for getting them do a couple of Super Bowls in the past. UH. Panther's owner David Tepper said that after recent conversations with Hernie about the structure of the team's football operations became clear they had some different ideas. Temper was careful to say he respected Hernie's traditional approach but hopes to blend more of a data driven process into the football operation that according to Panthers dot Com, I think sometimes you just need to start a restart, a refresh Tepper said, we did it last year. On the coaching side, maybe you could say it should have been done before. On the GM side, maybe it should have been I'm sure people may say that or otherwise on both sides. I think it's just time on both sides do that. It just seems like the right time to move forward. But here's the here's the money quote. I think you guys just had this up on the screen at Visa dot Com. This is Temper the owner talking quote. Ian Rappaport also had this at rap Sheet this morning. You look at successful organization and there's a organizations and there's a certain alignment between the head coach and the GM. To think that you can do that without some sort of alignment as nuts. So to not have a head coach with some input, with some input into that rather is stupid. Okay, He adds at the end, I love when people finish their sentences by going okay, wow. So that's there's a vote of confidence for rule if I've ever heard one, but Marty Hernie, I mean a GM that took them to two Super Bowls. Dunezo in Carolina this morning, anyway, who are there playing Washington again? That's right, Washington, Yes, Washington sixth and a Washington wins out, they go to the playoffs. Got news for you. Washington loses to Seattle yesterday. Four game winning streak was snapped, but really it came down to the wire in the end, only a fIF win for the Seahawks. Carlos Dunlop Dunlaps shaking off a lingering foot injury, sacking Dwayne Haskins to uh clinch the win that clinched the Seahawks the playoff berth by the way. But Washington the first seven possessions of this game with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback three points, two turnovers, first seven possessions. Haskins ended up throwing the ball fifty five time him though he was thirty eight of fifty five for two ninety five, one touchdown, two picks. He was sacked four times. Logan Thomas thirteen catches for one oh one, Terry McLaurin seven for seventy seven, Washington nine of fifteen on third downs. Dwayne Haskins actually, you know he didn't do Listen, He's not scaring anybody, but he wasn't terribly horrific yesterday. Let's put it that way. How about that wasn't terribly horrific. They were using his college playbooks something like he was using the place from college. He wasn't good, but he wasn't terribly horrific. Be my words. Rob Rivera said that Alex Smith will start next week if healthy. All that said, I'll say, Washington buy a field goal, Washington minus three, and I ate it three. It's two and two and a half mostly two, but I'm open two and a half again. If if I see a three pop up, I'm gonna go there, I think Alex Smith. Yeah, fifty five times seems like quite a bit. The defense still good, you know, Carolina, Like I said, they like Matt Rule, I like, you know, I've been a Teddy Bridgewater fan from day one. But there's there's certainly not playing well. I thought this number should be a legitimate three. It's not. It's two, two and two and a half. Right now, I'm gonna open on the high side two and a half. Okay. Yeah, By the way, these lines seem pretty easy to make this week. That like, you can't be that far off on these What's next? It was gonna be interesting. Giants at the Ravens and there's really no lines out there, and I'm assuming it's because of the possibility of Daniel Jones coming back. So not that much to talking about as far as like the lines in this game. But it's the Giants and the Ravens. Does that matter if it's Daniel Jones or Cool McCoy to the line, Well, apparently it does. That's so a lot of people, so I don't know. Giants first NFL team and this game against the Browns last night. A lot of people. This is one of these Sunday night games where you're all footballed out. I know. First for those of us who had the RAMS and Survivor for instance, it like I, I just don't have it in me anymore. But of course I had this game on this entire game last night. The Giants and the Browns came down to two first half decisions. For the Giants. Quite frankly, I don't know if it goes their way if they win this anyway, but it certainly wasn't going to go their way once these two things happened. They're the first NFL team. The Giants are first NFL team with two first half turnovers on downs inside the red zone since two thousand and six. Think about that. Fourteen years it's been since a team did what the Giants did last night. Namely, they had the ball at the eight yard line, and they had the ball at the five yard line twice in the first half. The one at the eight yard line, they went into this funky little formation where they you know, it could have worked actually because Graham Gano apparently was open in the end zone, but Riley Dixon instead looked at Nick Gates is center, and he threw it high and incomplete, the Gates turning the ball over on downs and again Gano was wide open. But it was one of these places where as soon as they lined up, you're like, what are they doing? You know, it was like before the play even was running, You're like, this is not gonna work. Colt McCoy ended up nineteen of thirty one for two twenty one, no touchdowns, no picks to be sacking ones. The Giants only ended up with fourteen first downs behind Freddie Kitchens. They put up just six points against the defense. Against the defense that had given up eighty points in the past two games, they could only manage six. Look, I get it, you're still in the NFC East race, and you could have if if you had tied Washington, you have the tiebreaker and you'd be atop the NFC East. But I just I don't know. That first one was weird. The second time they decided to kick a field goal, and then the third time, I'm like, I don't know what's going on here. Baltimore. They crushed yesterday, crushed Jacksonville. They built a twenty six point halftime lead roll to a forty two seven win. Lamar seventeen of twenty two for two forty three, three touchdowns, one pick, He was sacked. Ones ten of thirty five on the ground for a touchdown, Ravens eight of twelve on third down, one of two on fourth four nine total yards. Uh, you say there's no line. I would say it's north of ten, though, I'd say ten and a half on the Ravens. That's what I would That's exactly what I made it ten and a half, no difference, you know in my numbers between McCoy and Jones. So, uh that that's exactly what I made. And I think it will open somewhere a while there. Okay, So we have one Friday game, Christmas Day and we have three Saturday games. How many early and late do we have? Jason, it's three afternoon games. I believe seven early games makes sense? Seven early, three late. Uh, let's do one more. Okay, We've got the Falcons at the Chiefs. Falcons at the Chiefs. We talked about, we talked about both of these days. Falcons losing two again, squandering to seventeen point leads against the Bucks yesterday. Mattie Ice thirty four forty nine three fifty six, three touchdowns, Doe Pixie was sacked three times, Calvin Ridley ten for one sixty three at a touchdown. Atlanta failed to pick up a first down on four are of its last five possessions, the only exception being a drive that ended with a young Hay Coup's fifty two yard or with eight twenty two remaining that gave the Falcons twenty four lead, but they end up losing thirty one to twenty seven. It didn't hold up. They already the Falcons had become the first team in NFL history to blow fourth quarter leads, remember of at least fifteen points in two straight games. Now this so it doesn't matter. It was Dan Quinn Raheem Morris. A super Bowl, not a super Bowl. It's just you Atlanta Falcons um Kansas City nine game winning streak now Patrick Mahomes twenty six forty six for two fifty four three touchdowns, wasn't I didn't throw a pick with sacked four times on the season, thirty six touchdowns and five picks, and the Chiefs can now clinch the number one seed in the a f C with the win in the Pittsburgh loss. Bad news for the Chiefs yesterday, well, it was a rookie running back Clyde Edwards Hilaire needed help to the locker room in the fourth quarter uh not putting any pressure on his left leg, but Andy Reid said that X rays were negative. Edwards Hilaire requires more evaluation today. High ankle sprain. I saw across the ticker. That's never fun. Could be worse, but that's never fun. At the end of the season, it'll be tough. Yeah, it'll be tough with yeah, this season dwindling and the playoffs looming, so we'll keep an eye on that. But the Chiefs do end winning it again thirty thirty two to twenty nine against the Saints in a game where the box score. Statistically, they just absolutely destroyed the Saints. We talked about it earlier and yet only one by three. And and as Chris Felika pointed out in text to us, Chrissie could have been worse. When they were up fourteen to seven. That fumble on the pup return went went into the end zone. The Saints should have landed on it, and it scored it out for a safety, so it was fourteen to nine instead of fourteen to fourteen at that point. Saints didn't take a lead briefly at the beginning of the second half, sixteen to was it fifteen to fourteen? I believe so, yeah, just so we're But look, I've been betting the Chiefs a FC futures and Super Bowl futures all year, just quietly betting them everyw I just they're head and shoulders above every team to me. And that offense is unstoppable, and it's better. They're better this year than I think they were last year when they won the Super Bowl. I'll say Chiefs by ten here, Yeah, you know it's ten and ten and a half numbers only come to nine. But I gotta tell you it's I always made a joke that an annual rite a fall for me was to overrate Oklahoma and college football. Another annual rate of fall is to overrate the Falcons. Yes, I do it all that. I ain't cover a lot of numbers, and they might cover here, and probably you never have a chance to win a game. It's like that my numbers come to nine, but I see ten and ten and a half and I like that better. I like that better than my own numbers. So I'm gonna open a ten and a half. Uh. If you're a Falcon or a Falcon fan, you just have to be talking in your South America after you know what what they've done in the last couple of years, just you know, atrocious. So anyway, tennant ass me props suggestion, Christie. I know how much you love when I give prop suggestions, especially when they do them live on air. I know how much that tickles you. Uh, chiefs versus the field? Right now? Chiefs? Or is everybody else? To win the Super Bowl? What would what would people bet on the field? Like, what number would it take to bet on the field? Because there they are in the driver's seat for the number one seed, right and the buy so that's already an advantage, and then the super Bowl is is not It's not a cold weather situation. So they're going to be the favorite in the super Bowl no matter who they play. What do you think, Well, I'm trying to think, well, now, let me let me think it's true you're gonna be cold. Uh, you know, I think right now the uh you know, I had them like plus two dollars when the super Bowl going into this weekend. Um, you know, so I think I think that's probably a little high. Uh. Let's so let's say it's like plus one. You know, I'm gonna go look through my futures, you know, wants to show into So if it's plus one eighty, you know, you need a wide spread on something like that. So minus probably like minus two twenty minus two again, you know, the field would be minus two twenty or something like that. But don't worry. I mean there's a lot of guys out there, I know who were you know, maysayers, and it might lay a price like that, but I think probably pretty close to with that, A two way price would be something like that. The way that you caught me cold to look at a little more terrible terrible of me. I apologized, and then m v P Jason Patrick Mahomes versus Aaron Rodgers, like, how do you decide this? At this point? Mahome is a big favorite, though, Yeah, I mean it's just to toss up. I mean, who's nobody knows what the criteria is. To me, Aaron Rodgers feels more valuable if they didn't have him. I felt like a backup quarterback could probably do something with the chief. Aaron Rodgers openly stumping about the meaning of the word valuable in m v P. Patrick Mahomes say, saying he doesn't pay attention to it. Aaron Rodgers really wants a third m v P. I love the narrative of him getting one this year. He really wants a third m v P. And Mahomes is like, I got my whole career. I don't care. Um. By the way, I heard like Max Kellerman. I was in the car on Saturday. He was talking about how valuable doesn't mean valuable, valuable means best, and I'm like, no, it done, Absolutely no, it doesn't. He like did a whole rant on. I'm like, no, actually it done. He's got a sentiment diction. Yeah, it's very interesting, so we'll see anyway. Sorry to spring that on you, Chrissy, and my apologies. Um okay, the Rams at the sea Hawks. Rams at the Seahawks, so I which I thought we were done talking about this team. Apparently not. Um Rams. I don't know if you heard this, but they lost to the Jets yesterday. The Rams were total no show. So again, um, there was never a moment where I was not going to pick the Rams, nor was there a moment where I thought we had any shot of losing this. But you know, the Rams didn't show up in the first half, and that Jared Goff face was out there. Uh. Five points in the first half of the Rams, five points, one of which was blocked, a pick, a total of three points and a total of ninety seven yards in the first half of the Rams again, five points, one block to pick, three points in ninety seven yards. Jared Goff was two thirty four in the game for two oh nine, two touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked three times. This was Goff's comment after the game, quote, we have a game coming up next week that we're going to have to win anyways, and I think we know that unquote well, that's that's not very comfortable. Leader. That's about as close to a guy saying yeah, we didn't care as anything I've ever heard. The Ram were two of eleven on third downs, zero for one on four and as Jared Goff points out, they can win the NFC West with wins in their last two games, so what did they care? But again, they had their shots and still couldn't get it done. A touchdown that was called back by a penalty, a punt return that looked like it was going to the house but instead of cutting out, Webster cut in and the punter got him. Didn't try a fifty five yard to tie it. Anyway, you take your lumps. All sixteen of us in the Survivor and circus survivor who had the Rams correctly took the Rams. We had planned for it the whole time. Nothing you can do. Sometimes you just lose sixty left. Uh Seattle. They clinched a playoff birth of the ninth time in eleven seasons under Pete Carroll yesterday. They've held four straight opponents to seventeen points or fewer. Russell Wilson eighteen of twenty seven for one twenty one against that Washington defense man. That Washington defense is good. One touchdown, one pick, was not sacked, only sixteen first downs for the Seahawks and victory. That's all you have to do against Dayne Haskins. That's all you have to do. So it's the Rams at Seattle, the nine and five Rams against the ten and four Seahawks. Rams trying to win out to win the NFC West. Seahawks win this, they win the NFC West. They're not gonna be three point favorites. I'll say two and a half Seahawks minus two and a half. Yeah, if then you were from one and a half to two and a half, one and has probably a little like although I gotta tell you my numbers come to pick them on this game, but I think I am going to use the Seahawks to uh, you know. I always say, like when teams get out there on Sunday, every individual guy he's going to compete. That's just their nature. That's what they're gonna do. Face with an opponent right on it. You're going to compete. What are they doing on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday? That and that this is a perfect example. The coach pretty much admitted it they did not do their preparation the way they should have against any kind of a viable opponent, and it showed on Sunday. Well, I think they will do their prep work this week. I know they will. Uh, there's a big game for them. I kind of like the Rams a little bit in this spot. I just don't think they could be nearly as bad as what they showed on last Sunday yesterday. And I still have big questions about the Seahawks team. I just I don't think they're all that good. Um, Like I said, I'm gonna open right in the middle two, but because I see a lot of two and a half out there. But I kind of like the Rams a little bitness. If this game gets the three, I would definitely be on the Rams. Okay. The Eagles at the Cowboys. Eagles at the Cowboys. Eagles come from sixteen down to tie up against the Cardinals yesterday, but lose by a touchdown. Great play from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins. Great catch by DeAndre Hopkins to seal the deal, But the Eagles had their chances. Jalen Hurts twenty four or forty four for three thirty eight three touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked six times, couldn't leave the Eagles any points on their last two offensive drives. Philly made it to the cardinals thirty one yard line on the final drive and then Hurts threw two passes into the end zone on the final two plays, but they fell incomplete. They were plus three in turnovers and lost. That's the killer, by the way, great move by Quez Watkins on Philly's first touchdown uh in the in the first half of that game was killer. Um. Dallas beats the Niners. Andy Dalton nineteen of thirty three for two oh nine, two touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked two times. Pollard hundred thirty two yards for scrimmage, two touchdowns on the ground. Ceedee Lamb five catches for eighty five yards, also had a kickoff return for a touchdown on the on side kick at the end, he took it to the house fielded it took it to the to the end zone. Fifteen total first downs for the Cowboys. That's a fifteen only two ninety one total yards and victory. As I mentioned earlier, plus four in turnovers. That's all you need. Four of the seven Dallas schools were set up by those turnovers from the Niners. Cowboys have to win both against Philly and the Giants, while Washington has to lose twice for the Cowboys to win the NFC East once again, Washington at six and eight, both Dallas and the Giants at five and nine. The Eagles still alive at four nine and one, a game and a half back the heavily contested FC East. I'll say Philly minus three. Yeah, I hear high. It's um anywhere. I even see as low as one with some juice on the save it, and as high as let me say, there was a two and a half. I think it's gone. So it's one's one an alf two. I like one and a half. My numbers came to pick him in this game, and uh, you know, it's weird how you're just talking about turnovers Eagles had. They were plus three and turnover as you said, right plus Eagles were plus three, yeah, yeah, plus rein lost. Cowboys were plus four. I think, yeah, yeah, So, um, you know, there's I'm not sure what the take out of that, you know, but I thought pick him was a little closer to what I would like. Uh, you know, Jalen Hurts. I mean, he played well. There's no doubt he looks like the guy going forward. I mean, I think Carson Wentz to start packing his bags right now. But I'm but I'm want to go crazy over this Eagle team. Yet I thought picked him was a good number. So I'll open one and a half just because I see it. I see a lot of two's out there, but I'm gonna open one and a half. And if they beat me up, they beat me up. But I wouldn't want to go any higher than that right now on this team elimination game Eagles and Cowboys. All right, Sunday night, Okay, it's a good one. The Titans at the Packers definitely more definitely better games in week sixteen than we're a week fifteen, that's for sure. Ten and four Titans, a lettern and three Packers. Tennessee can clinch the ANFC South with a win in in Indianapolis lost. Remember the Colts play the Steelers. The Tennessee Titans. E texted last night and the only reason I knew the answer to this because I had been doing research for this show this morning show prep and he said quick without looking right now, tell me who has scored the most points in the NFL this year? What team? And because I had done the research, I guessed properly. I go Tennessee. By any chance, he goes yes, by one point over Kansas City, by two points over Green Bay. Tennessee thirty plus points five straight games. Fifth team in NFL history with five straight games, piling up at least four hundred twenty yards total offense and thirty points. Tannehill yesterday against the Lions, and the Lions defense is a sieve. Seven for two seventy three, three touchdown passes, no uh, no sack, excuse me, no picks, one sack, three for twenty one on the ground with two touchdowns, career high five touchdowns passing in running for Tannehill. But Derrick Henry is the is the engine, carries on seven yards and a touchdown. Corey Davis four catches for one ten in a touchdown. The tight were ten of thirteen on third downs, even though they allowed seven of ten on third downs themselves. That's the thing. The Lions defense is a sieve, but the Titans Achilles is definitely their own defense. But four hundred sixty three total yards of offense. They were plus three in turnovers against the Lions. And then there's Green Bay, who I mentioned great teaser leg on Saturday. Came through in the end, but it was more of a sweat than we wanted. They reached the end zone on their first three series against the Panthers before hanging on to beat them twenty four to sixteen. They won their fourth straight despite getting out scored thirteen to three and out gained two hundred fourteen to forty nine in the second half. Aaron Rodgers not happy about it. He was twenty of twenty nine for one forty three one touchdown. Note Pixy was sacked five times five or twenty six on the ground with a touchdown season low a hundred forty three yards. Aaron Jones twenty one forty five and a touchdown. Packers own a tiebreaker over the Saints after beating the Saints remember back in September thirty seven to thirty. So the Packers win here and uh it is their number one seed to be had because they will win all tiebreakers against the New Orleans Saints. So the Packers just need one more win here down the stretch and it is theirs um all that said, I'll say Green Bay minus because of that Tennessee defense. I'll say Green Bay minus four and a half. Yeah, you're a little high. It's three and a half. I see one three out there with a lot of juice. I'm the favorite. Uh you know, my members only come to three, but I'm gonna I'm gonna go ahead and use three and a half there also, I don't want to mess with the three three and a half stuff on it someday and I came that, I basically gonna be heavily bet um. I would say this though about the Titans. I think they've been a little underrated all year. Even if you go back to the preseason, you know, their their season wind total was like, you know, eight or eight and a half something like that. I remember, just seeing their obvious to win the Super Bowl. I thought, we're just inordinately high. I remember saying that I didn't believe that that was the correct evaluation, since I tried to be on their side quite a bit this year, and I managed to do that. Uh you know, I listen, I'm throwing out that Green Bay game. I don't know what happened the second half. I think the Green Bay first half was much more indicative of what this team really is made up. So I'm gonna talks about that. So it's nothing against Green Bay. But I just think the Titans, you know, a little underrated, and like he had a great question there, I don't think maybe people would say the Titans. I certainly wouldn't have had the most points this year, so I think they're a tad underrated. I like three a little better, but I am an open three and a half. Like I said, I don't want to mess with that three three and a half, especially after yesterday getting quawbered on that Kansas City New Orleans game. But I think the Titans I kind of like them in this spot a little bit. Yeah. I only do the answer to that because I had done research and I had seen no. Five straight games with thirty plus points. Maybe it's the Titans. That's why he's asking, Um, so I got there. I've had the Titans. We do top ten rankings on Primetime Action every week. I've had the Titans in my top six the whole way through, just because I you know, I'll put it this way. I've asked the question in recent weeks to people who who's the team that the Chiefs if you gave them truth serum, Who's the team they'd least like to play in the a f C playoffs? I said Baltimore, because if Baltimore gets ahead, they've got that running game, and they've got Lamar Jackson, who could always make a mess of any player or make every play that is a mess into something great. Matt Brown, who's my co host on Primetime Action, he says it's the Buffalo Bills. I think most people would say the Buffalo Bills. I asked that of Aaron Shots from football outsiders. He said the Titans, which was interesting too, So you get a different answer from different people. All Right, Monday Night, the Bills at the Patriots. Bills at the Patriots Bills, a f C East champions for the first time since end in New England's eleven year rain atop the division. Josh Allen wasn't even born. Yeah, wouldn't even be born. He was twenty eight of forty against the Broncos on Saturday for three d fifty nine yards, two touchdowns, no pis sacked once. Three carries for thirty three yards and two touchdowns against a team that bypassed him in the NFL Draft, despite his starring just up the uh, up the uh. How can we say this the Midwest at Wyoming, just two and a half hours north of Denver. Stefon digs eleven for one forty seven Cole Beasley eight for one twelve. I was filling up a statute. Twenty nine first downs for the Bills in that game, nine of thirteen on third downs they had five hundred and thirty four total yards crushed them. And then there's New England. New England's run of it. Their NFL record eleven straight playoff appearances comes to an end with their loss to the Dolphins by ten snaps their streak of nineteen straight winning seasons. They'll finish at five hundred or worse for the first time since two thousands, a year they drafted Tom Brady. They fall one year short of matching the Cowboys NFL record of twenty consecutive winning seasons. Congratulations of the Patriots, what a run it was. It comes to an end. Contrast this with Matt Rule and the Panthers, as we talked about earlier in their decision making. At the end of that game against the Path against the Packers, fourth and two at the Miami twenty two down ten with one fourteen left for the Patriots, two time outs left. New England doesn't kick the field goal, gets sacked. Ball game that cost people New England teasers. So Bill Belichick played it completely differently, and I would say kind of curiously. Newton seventeen seven for two oh nine, no touchdowns, no picksack three times, Chkobe Meyers seven for one eleven. There were two of nine on third downs, they were over one on fourth down. I will never understand the move on the Patriots. I'll say the Bill's minds seven and a half. You know, that's exactly what I made. Seven and a half. But it's all seven. Um, I don't I see one seven and a half with a time of juice on the dog. So I'm gonna open seven. But this is a curious game for uh the what's the emotional level going to be? You know the Bills one that won the the division, the Patriots that they just pack it into the Bills. Yeah, I don't think the Bills packet and they want to go up to beat New England. But you know, I think New England has to know your cam probably not gonna be back next year. I don't know who else is going to be gone, probably a whole bunch of them, so I don't know that. I think it's an interesting emotional game. And you talk about betting, m uh, you know pre flopper in game this I think would be an in game bet if you're of that hilk. But I'm an open seven. We'll see where we go from there. So I think I like Miami and Arizona best. But this slim pickings to me. What about you, Crizzy, that's the exact thing too. I got marked on my sheet Arizona in Miami and and I'm sure by the end of the week, I'll probably have ten plays I like right now. I'm sure I will too, and all all kinds of strategies. That's why we do that, because we love it. It's in our d n A. I'm still getting around that. Thank you, Chrissy, appreciate it. We'll talk to you next week. My pleasure you doing, my friend. Good luck to all of you. First look at Week sixteen lines. Maybe you go with these instincts. I hope you played along. Good luck from all of us at decent these sports betting that way,