The NCAA Tournament is here! Gill Alexander is joined by VSiN contributors Todd Wishnev and Will Hill. They analyze the entire bracket and break down each region. They go game-by-game to seek value and opportunity throughout the bracket. All that and more on this special edition of Beating The Book!
Check it do Man, Monday morning, March seventeen though twenty twenty five. It is the Beating the Book Podcast March Madness Edition. It's Skill Alexander Live from Circa. They gave us the studio, didn't really give us the studio. We kind of took the studio for the hour and fifteen minutes. We're being granted for the most downloaded podcast episode of every year in Beating the Book the March Madness Pod On my left at Circa. Todd Wishnev, star of the Showtime docu series Action. What's happening?
What's up? Gilly? It's March Madness time? Who's not excited? Will Hill is completely bald and ready to go?
And yes, Will Hill, the host of the should have Been More Podcasts who completely has shaved his head completely. What are you doing? What's wrong with you?
This is not not a character for me. I've really done this, I think since college. I let it grow and then I kind of shaved it all off. You shid man hat. That's probably so jarring to you, gentlemen.
Jarring. It is jarring, startling, So what it is?
Unsettling?
Okay? NCAA Tournament thirty one auto thirty seven at large. That is not how it used to be, by the way, it used to be thirty two thirty six, but no PAC twelve. So now it's thirty one thirty seven. And these are the two gentlemen, by the way, who two years ago, I won't go, I won't be labored. But two years ago that was their big moment where Will called Fau to go to the final four and Todd called the final between Yukon and San Diego State. He also had Michigan State going far. And we put out the video on Twitter today just to remind folks from two years ago how Todd didn't pay heed to the advice of putting his brackets into a big national contest. And thank god, that.
Wasn't really what happened. What happened was, you know, I no longer used DraftKings for obvious reasons, and then I forgot that I could have just put one hundred in the for the contest at DraftKings because contests are not an issue with them, so whatever. Anyways, I forgot that. I realized that I could do that because I was used to not using DraftKings.
But anyways, we got that clarified anyway, you also didn't listen to the advice. Both are true, so it didn't would he would have won thirty five thousand dollars because you would have finished in a tie for second with Doug Wedge, who did finish in second place. He's the guy that made us realize, oh no, you might have won this thing, and thank god you didn't win it, because it would have been a million dollars and then you would have jumped off a cliff. Yes, okay, now that we got that straight. Okay, so here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna go bracket by bracket. We're gonna talk about advancing in your brackets and also any ats opinions before we do that. I always do this on a numbers game, but rarely. I think last year was the first time I ever did the formula on the podcast. We'll just start with this. This is a tried and true formula that has existed since I've been doing this this show.
This pot formula. By the way, it's a great formula.
Beating the book, beating the book podcasts before that, the Betty dor podcast, and on the numbers of game on radio. We're laughing for a reason which I won't get into. So it's six six bullet points where literally of the last two or three decades, almost without exception, it has called the group of teams from which the eventual national champion has come. So the categories. Again, the formula is last thirty four champs had more assists than turnovers. Thirty two of the last thirty four champs had a head coach with previous Sweet sixteed experience. The only exceptions to get to the Promised Land twenty fourteen Yukon Huskies coach by Kevin Ali, twenty twenty three Yukon Huskies coach by Dan Hurley. Those are the exceptions of that one. Twenty eight of the last twenty nine champs went to the tournament with at least three wins versus teams in the top ten percent of RPI, the twenty fourteen Yukon Huskies being the exception, the Shabaz Napier led Huskies, not the Kemba Walker led Huskies that was earlier. Last twenty nine champs had a top seventy five strength of schedule and then the two ken Pom categories. Twenty one of the last twenty two champs were in the top twenty and adjusted offensive efficiency at ken Pom. You guessed it, the twenty fourteen Yukon Huskies being the only exception. They were thirty ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency that year, and then twenty one of the last twenty two champs win the top twenty and adjust the defensive efficiency at Kenpom. The only exception, the only non Yukon exception to all the the twenty twenty one Baylor Bears, who are twenty second in the end in adjust the defensive efficiency. That's it for the last two or three decades. So the teams that qualified this year after selection Sunday as we head into the Big Dance, Auburn, Duke, Houston, Iowa State, and Tennessee. And the only exception, of course is Florida because Todd Golden hasn't coached a Sweet sixteen before. I have never gone into the Big Dance with as much feeling that this could be torpedoed as I do this year because of Florida's prowess and just Todd Golden being disqualified on the Sweet sixteen exception. So Auburn, Duke, Houston, Iowa State, Tennessee, Florida, the exception because of Sweet Sixteen. That's why they're disqualified. No previous head coaching Sweet sixteen experience. Shall we start with the first four? Start with the first four real quick. Curious if you guys have any plays ats wise talking about San Diego State, North Carolina, Alabama State, Saint Francis, American, Mount Saint Mary's, Texas, Xavier.
I like Xavier.
You like them made, yes, you like them to win this game.
I mean, I'm not a huge pregame better, but you know this kind of stands out to me. I mean the other day I liked Oklahoma first half on the An G Show, and they did get their first half. I kind of like Xavier here. I'm not a fan of Texas. I just think they're fraudulent the entire year, and Xavier has been getting better the whole year. Sean Miller solid coach. I think Xavier gets home only two and a half points. Give me the Xavier Musketeers.
That's Wednesday night, one of the first four. Will any of those four games you play it on?
I would agree with Xavier and also playing close to home. I think forty fifty miles it's basically a home game for a Texas team that really struggles to score away from home, and you know, it's funny, you didn't see San Diego State. We're all going to scream and y know, how is this team in the tournament? Usually those teams kind of come out, we all scream for a few days about how do they make it? And they do pretty well and they kind of I think at George Mason a VCU, there was controversy there runs about getting in. I don't know if I see it with San Diego State. I think San Diego With Carolina, I think San Diego State can slow them down, keep them out of transition, making an ugly like half court type of game. Maybe that's an under but I definitely lean towards San Diego State and with the points the more that I look at it versus Carolina.
Talking about that first four game. By the way, a first four team has reached the final four twice VCU, Shaka Smart's VCU team in twenty eleven, UCLA in twenty twenty one, the Hokes team, and then a first four team has reached the round of thirty two twelve of the last thirteen years. So a first four team has gotten past the first round, in other words, to the round of thirty two in twelve of the last thirteen years. That point you make about Carolina, right, So everybody, right, mainstream media is so outrage that they got in, and by the way, justifiably so. But we don't care about that because we're betting and it doesn't help us bet So now that they're in, I'm curious if you remember this, Todd. You're old enough to remember this as I am, from the dawn of time, from the very first time I remember the NCAA tournament. There was a before it was in sixty four teams, when it was forty eight, there was in the early eighties. You'll remember this. There was a Bradley team that got knocked that that didn't get invited to the tournament, but a Boston College team led by John Bagley that did, and everybody on mainstream they were screaming about how the Bradley coach was out there. This was a who was the star of Bradley. Percy Hawkins was the star of the of the Bradley team and John Bagley and BC like got to the sweet sixteen I think it was, and it was like this big to do then too, So it's to your point, it's like, just because people are killing a team that doesn't deserve to be in it, it's as old as you know, at least as far back as I can remember, that a team then makes a run doing this.
The flip side of that is everyone last year was up in arms at Virginia didn't make it in by about the eight minute time out of the first half of that game. We were all just doubling down of wait a second, hold, they scored what did they scored thirty or forty points in one of the uglier games anyone who's ever watched in the history of basketball.
All right, let's do this bracket by bracket. Now we'll get to the first round again, the play in games or the first four games or Tuesday and Wednesday night. Thursday, of course, is when it all starts. And we will begin in the south.
Or to the south of the n right or riverside Santa Clair.
Right, Yeah, by the way, you bet those? Do you bet those?
Yes? I love the National Invitational, torn at the CBI, the CIT I love it.
All over and overfest for all of them.
I mean you have to lean over, but they actually if you like over Santa Clair of a Riverside Tuesday night. That should be a lot of points, only one hundred and fifty three. Santa Clair is like an over machine. Riverside'never machine. We don't have to go into that. I'm just saying, Riverside, I don't.
I mean, I know we're on a limited time and we're not gonna talk too much. And it did. You see they invited South Alabama then called them back hour and a half later after they told the team, the coach told the team, Hey, we're going to the n and said, my bad way, you're actually not coming.
Wow, thank god, that's not nice.
Riverside with one of the great player names, Barrington Hargrest.
Yes I called them Hardgraves on the show the other day.
He's awesome. By the way. All right to the South to the Big Dance the South Region Thursday. Auburn the overall number one seed, obviously the number one seed in the South Ken Palm number four though overall number one seed in the tournament, but the Ken Palm number four. They will take on the winner of the Alabama State Saint Francis game. I assume you're going to advance Auburn No. Matter what in the bracket, and we don't have a we don't have any spread obviously on this Alabama State out of the Swack. They won the Swack as a plus six to fifty underdog in that tournament. And then Saint Francis, PA, they were the longest shot to win their conference tournament. They won the Northeast as a fifteen to one shot. But we don't have a number on that. But you have no play on the Alabama State Saint Francis game, as we've already established. Yes, correct, no play on that.
Nothing, no play for me.
Saint Francis known as the team that when they had fifty five points in the Wagner first half and we had under fifty eight and a half on the last possession of the first half, when when they do something called holding for one you may have heard of such a thing. Anyways, Saint Francis shoots a three and gets fouled at the end of the first half to go over fifty nine. Maybe one of the worst beats of the.
That was on conference title Sunday, right that was right before.
No no, no, no, no no, that was a regular season yeah, yeah, remember that.
Was what I'm saying that was in the NFL. That was the conference championship Sunday. Yes, yeah, I remember party watching the start of that game in a really really bad movie, because that beat Auburn.
If they get to the round of thirty two, which we're assuming they do, they would play the winner of the other game in Lexington. There in that bracket. The Louisville Creighton eight to nine game. Louisville won nineteen more games than a year ago, the largest leap in Division One. They were twenty seven and seven against Creighton out of the Big East, the ninth seed. Here in the South, they were twenty four and ten on the season. Ryan Kychbrenner Big East Player of the Year once again. Ten point nine fouls per game Creighton commits. That's the fewest in D One. Louisville and Crayton where the number on this game ISOO. Where can I fighted? Louisville is a two point favorite. Any play here? Who do you advance? Willie?
I'll go Louisville playing close to homing Kentucky. I think they got Hepburn's a really good defender who can kind of eliminate Ashworth, and you can break Copbrender maybe away from the basket because they really spread you out. Louisville does, so I think whoever wins this game, he's pretty live against Auburn. This is a good eight nine matchup. I thought Louisville was very under seated at eight, but I will go with Louisville.
He or Toddy the Louisville to advance in Louisville to cover the two points.
I hate that this is the game because I love both these teams. I actually have them both, you know and Little you know play long shot things. But you know, I'm going to take Creighton. I don't want to take Creighton, but I don't really want to take Louisville either. I'm just forced to play. I'm not going to play the game, obviously, But you know, Creighton and Louisville are two teams that I really thought had a chance to go far. So I'm really bummed that they have him playing each other.
All right, Well, futures do you have on these toddies.
I have like one hundred to one on Louisville and sixty six to one on Creighton, but just for a little small months.
For them to win it all. Offense is going to be mad Fest. It's going to be so much jeez.
Still on Thursday. This is also in the South, but this is a Denver and that, by the way, what I just said there, it was a theme last year on this podcast, and I bet we'll be a theme here too, which is teams you like end up either playing each other in the first round or going to have to face someone in the second round real quick, and you otherwise would have had them advancing further. Michigan UCSD might be one of those. It's the five twelve in the South, Michigan twenty five to nine. They won seventeen more games than a year ago. Danny Woolf fifteen double doubles this year, most of the Big Ten. They won the Big Ten Tournament as twelve to one, as a twelve to one shot the Twin Towers of Wolf and Golden, and then you see San Diego. The Tritons were thirty and four. They have the longest win streak in the country, fifteen in a row. They won the Big West Tournament as a minus one sixty favorite. Michigan. You see San Diego, Michigan Open is a three point favorite. It's now two and a half. But this is an example of in terms of teams, like you see San Diego, a team that folks really love. Maybe they're almost too popular of an upset pick. What do you think Will, Yeah.
It's funny way Buddy Omar actually had Michigan to win the Big Ten. He got sixteen to one FanDuel, so he sweated that one and got home. I think you're gonna hear all week that it's too trendy. Maybe what's too trendy is saying it's too trendy. I like you see San Diego. I think Michigan turns it over a lot. You see San Diego as a ball hawking defense that forces a lot of turnovers. You worry a little bit about the size because san Diego's guys are all in that six five to six seven sort of range, where Michigan's got the two seven footers. But do you take anything into account for the fact that Michigan played three games in three days, all at altitude. Now they got a quick turnaround playing again on Thursday. I like this. You see San Diego team Todd, I'm gonna take them to advance.
Or will it's too trendy to say that it's too trendy. To say it's too trendy.
I don't like it. I'm gonna take Michigan. I don't, you know, I don't really like Michigan. But you know, I looked at you see San Diego. I mean, who did they really play? They played San Diego State, they lost by five. They played Utah State, they were they won by two. That was a legitimate, you know win. And then they just have these Irvine games. They played a bunch of her Other than that, they played no top one hundred teams at all. Now I'm not saying they can't beat Michigan, but I just feel like, you know, it might be too much. Michigan's got a lot of talent. I'm going to take Michigan.
That was the I made that bet on UCSD, and I immediately regretted it. Immediately regretted. By the way, there's a guy on Twitter, Eric Haslam. You sent this tweet out earlier this morning to the group chat. He does Hassla metrics, and one of the things that he puts on his Twitter is he goes to the sixteen seeds, the fifteens, the fourteens, and thirteens, and he talks about their margin of defeat or victory versus the all the top one hundred opponents. And it's really interesting to look at because if you're picking upsets, let's say in your brackets, it really does matter, like how did they do against good competition? And if you just do it at a glance, the sixteens and the fifteens, I mean, they don't look live at all, just based on this. But once you get to the thirteens and the twelves, like Yale looks great, Grand Canyon looks good. We'll get to these teams.
Liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty.
But you see San Diego is one of them, and Doug okay, this is for the winner of the Michigan U C San Diego game. Also on Thursday is Texas A and M Yale. It's the four to thirteen. They'll play the winner of Texas A and M and Yale. Speaking of Yale, Texas A and M twenty two to ten this year, great and second chance points per game highest than D one seventeen a game. Yale back to back IVY champs for the first time. Yale was a minus one ninety favorite to win the Ivy, and they got it done in pretty good fashion there on Sunday. Yale is a seven and a half point dog. Too much, will.
I think it is too much. I don't remember. I don't think I had a great bracket last year, but I did take Yale over Auburn. I'm gonna go back to the well. I'm gonna take Yale to upset A and M. That Jones, he's a good coach. A and M just can't shoot. Yale's a pretty good shooting team. If Yale could just keep them off of the glass, which is easier said than done, Yale's gonna have a very good chance to win this game. I know, Tom, we were talking about this, and you just worry that A and M just has too much athleticism for them. Maybe, but when Yale get to these tournaments, they make noise. They beat Baylor, was it seven or eight years ago? They beat Auburn last year, they were competitive against Duke in that round of thirty two game in their first go round. I know San Diego State buried them last year, but I think this is a very close, tight to the best game, low scoring Toddy. I will take Yale to advance.
I again, these are two teams that I like, and they have to have them playing each other. I hate that I have to pick against Yale, but I just think that there's going to be too much Texas A and M throwing it up there, missing the shots and getting multiple offensive rebounds. Because the Yale they do have like a big white dude inside who's pretty good on Yale, but he's just one guy and that's it. And the Texas A and M just throws flurries of people at you, just absolute flurries like a ray Letard flurries that you're looking at men. Yeah, And the thing is they're going to defend. I just like Texas A and M, and they had multiple games where they came back on the road and the sec they're gritty. You know, I talk about gritty. I might be a little bit over bearing about my love of gritty in then say tournament, but I love gritty and Texas A and M is as gritty as they come. They may not be able to make a shot the whole tournament, but they they're gonna bring the defense.
Baby, is this the first half under Toddy?
That's a good That's now we're talking. I think I like that one a lot. You could see a lot of bricks by Texas A and M, and then Texas A and M, you know, just defending the hell out of Yale and pol Aktas. You know, the left handed you know, real skinny white guy who's trying to shoot threes on Yale with like falling backward and stuff. They're going to be up on him, you know.
By the way, the total in the game is one forty and a half. So what's the first half totally gonna be? What sixty eight sixty seven something like that.
Where do you see the line? I'm sorry, one forty and a half is the total? Sixty six sixty six?
Okay? And you still like under on it? Yeah. By the way, lowest total in the first round is no surprises in the Houston game. Highest total no surprise in the Alabama game. To the other side of the South bracket. This is on Friday, number six seated Ole Miss against number eleven San Diego State. Ole Miss ten seniors on the team. They don't turn the ball over third fewest per game in D one. San Diego State good field goal percentage defense the best, and in D one thirty seven point eight field goal percentage they hold their opponents to. Oh with San Diego State playing North Carolina, that's right, So that's that's a game that's one of the first four to get in to play Ole Miss. And you said on San Diego State North North Carolina, you're taking the points with the Aztecs.
Well, yeah, I think the four and a half is five is just too much. I think it's more of a toss up game.
And you have nothing on that first four game.
I know they see those are two teams I don't like, and I can't bet against us that they put the teams that I like against you. The San Diego State I don't like this year. You know, in the past, I've been a big San Diego State fan. They just don't have enough offense. This year it's just it's it's and then New North Carolina is just fraudulent.
We don't think San Diego State could slow them down though and just keep them out of transition, and then it's just an ugly sort of looking up.
You know, I'm not disagreeing with your with I'm just saying both of these teams I don't like. So whoever you have going to play Old Miss I'm gonna take Old Mess.
Carolina one and twelve against Quad one teams. That's what everybody's up at arms about. They were eight to zero against Quad two teams and Bubba Cunningham, the selection committee chairman, I had nothing to do with it. I was outside of the room, I accused myself. Sure. Yeah. By the way, how do you feel about Old Miss? You think Old Miss could probably take down either of these teams or Shakey? You do you think they will win against I think Beard's a good coach. Yeah, all right.
Buba Cunningham got one hundred and twenty five thousand dollars for them making Yeah, that's right, pretty good.
Also Friday and Milwaukee. In addition that Old Miss game against the winner of San Diego State North Carolina, the three fourteen game i Aowa State and Lipscomb. The Bisons of Lipscomb second ever appearance in the nc doublea's most efficient offense in the Atlantic Sun. They won the Atlantic Sun Tournament as minus won seventy favorites there Iowa It has a problem though, Keishawn Gilbert out for the entire tournament. They started fifteen and one, they finished nine and eight. Their Ken Palm number ten, and like I said, they qualify for the formula Iowa state, how big of a favorite are they here?
Fourteen and a half?
Fourteen and a half? I see fourteen even what do you like here?
Okay, I think it's a lot of points. I would take the points, but I do think Iowa stated advances. Lipscomb has got some things to check, some boxes. And I watched them a bit. They were obviously down ten to Queens in the semi and had to come back and win. But they take a lot of threes. They make a lot of threes. They don't turn it over, they rebound. Okay, I could see this being five six point games pretty late. I think I would state wins, but I think it's a lot of points.
Body, that might be one where you want to play the first half dog your number, because you know a lot of these teams are going to throw their greatest twenty minutes at these like bigger favorites, play great, hang around, they're hanging around, and then look like seven minutes to go in the game, the roof will cave in, you know, and then it'll just be That'll be the end of it. So if you like those doggies, especially a dog you like Lipskimb, you might want to play in first half.
Right, Marquette, it will go to the seven to ten game. Also in the South seven to ten game in Cleveland on Friday, Marquette in New Mexico. Marquette the seventh seed with Cam Jones as their guard, and of course New Mexico with Donovan Dent, the Mountain West player of the year, the only D one player averaging twenty points per game in five assists per game.
Marquette is a four point favorite.
Willly, I don't have much here, Todd. I don't love this Marquette team. I don't like backing these Mountain West teams. I guess one in doubt take the four. I guess I'll take New Mexico plus the points in I'll advance them just because. But nothing with conviction here.
I don't like these teams. Again, these are two teams I do not like New Mexico. I really don't like the opposite of gritty. New Mexico is the opposite of gritty. They want to run and gun and running gun and running gun, not defend. Marquette'll just get there because they have enough grittiness to get there. But again, I don't like either of these teams, but I'll take Marquette to move on.
He likes gritty, he also likes he likes buttoned up teams, and he all likes buttoned.
Down anything with a button. I don't like zippers, you don't like button.
He doesn't like unbuttoned, but he likes buttoned up then buttoned down. Winner of seven ten Marquette, New Mexico's who do you have? Advancing? There will in your bracket.
Said Mark, I'll go New Mexico.
You're going to Mexico.
No conviction?
What about you?
I have Marquette.
Okay. By the way, with pools again, the biggest pool advice I can give people. If you're in a regular standard pool where it goes like two four six eight ten or two four eight sixteen, on and on. You know, bet in terms of the size of the pool, the smaller the pool, the more conservatively you should not you should pick. In terms of your brackets, the bigger the pool, the bigger chances you should take. But if you're an upset rewarded pool where like a thirteen beats of four and you get extra nine points thirteen minus four twelve minus five or seven, so on and so forth. You should be picking up sets up your wazoo because you should be prepared to have a lot of wrong guesses on your bracket, but those big ones count, So know the rules of your pool for sure. The winner of the seven ten game between Markette New Mexican go rounding out the South Region, takes on the winner of the two fifteen game, also in Cleveland on Friday. Michigan State twenty seven n C double appearances n C DOUBLEA appearances in a row for Izzoh for Tomzo, the coach of Michigan State. They were seven and one versus ranked Power Conference opponents this year twenty five and one win. They score seventy plus points their Ken Palm number eight against Bryant, the American of the America East champs, who have who have the fastest pace in their conference. Anyway, Michigan State is a massive favorite. Here will what do you.
Like Michigan State to advance? Would lean towards laying the point heer Todd's but nothing, I bet.
I would like to talk about that team total that is inherent in the point spread and the total seventeen and a half and one fifty two and a half. You can kind of create team totals off of that, so one fifty two is like seventy six, and then take half of the spread, which is, you know, about nine more. So we're probably looking for a score of eighty five to sixty Does that make sense?
Eighty five to sixty six?
No, until I'm a little off. Eighty five seventy sixty seven. Eighty five sixty seven is basically the implied score here, and I'm gonna say that they're probably gonna have the total right around eighty five for the Michigan State and I think Michigan State's gonna go over that total because I've watched a lot of Bryant basketball. It is up tempo, big time. They're gonna run, run, run, and Michigan State was not like a super running team. But if you allow them to run, and they will be able to run against Bryant, I think there could be a lot of points scored here. I wouldn't be shocked if Michigan State has over eighty.
Five Bryant seventy three point eight possessions per game. Bryant, They're fast to the east, we go winner of the Is it the winner of the South plays the winner of the East.
Is that true?
No, it's not true. Let's let's skip over the East. Then let's go.
To the Florida one. Yeah, it does this one.
Yeah. Let's go to the West, the West bracket. This is on Friday, number one, Florida. We'll take on Norfolk State. Norfolk State ill wing sixty nine point one points per game, the fewest in the MEAC. They won the MEAC tournament is plus one twenty five short shot in the MEACT. But Florida obviously ken Palm number two. They're gonna be massive favorites here and they are Florida advances. Would you have a play on the big spread here?
I would look towards Land. Norfolk doesn't play enough defense to hang in this game for me, so I would want no part of the dog here.
Todd, Yeah, I mean, I have nothing to say about the spread. But Florida is just you know, that's been my juggernaut team all year.
So you know, Florida, Florida on Friday morning against Norfolk State. I'm looking for the actual twenty eight and a half. By the way, is that the biggest spread of all these? I think it is twenty eight and a half. Oh Houston is the number two.
Of them aren't up yet though, because they're playing awaiting the playing a game.
That's right. Houston also a twenty eight and a half favorite over twenty and a half point favorite over SIU Edwards Bill.
Just to keep in mind, Norfolk, the best team they played in their top one hundreds was Tennessee and they lost by fifteen. They lost to Grand Canyon by eighteen, lost twenty five to Baylor, They lost by evan to Stanford, and they won by three against High Point. So maybe they hang around, but you know, I don't know.
Uh, Okay, winner of that game, which we assume is Florida, we'll take on the winner of the eight to nine in the West, Yukon going for a three peat against Oklahoma. Yukon twenty three and ten on the season highest block percentage of opponent shots in D one twelve percent, Oklahoma thirteen and oh a non conference play, the only SEC team with two fifteen point per game scores. Jeremiah Fears and Jalen Moore Yukon and Oklahoma. Who advances and what he got ats here? Will?
I said this? I think it was the Chiefs Bill's AFC title game. I said, whoever you pick, if you lose, you're gonna feel like an idiot. If you go against Yukon, you lose, you say what like that Hurley and Yukon in March and vice versa, where if you pick, if you pick, you know the other way you're going to say, Man, all the signs were there with Yukon being a flawed team. I go with the latter. I think Yukon's a flawed team. I think with the four and a half, you're paying a real tax on Hurley on the brand on the uniform. With Yukon, they're not good defensively, they foul a lot, they don't turn you over. Now they're going to get their points. On the other hand, because I don't think Oklahoma is a great defensive team, so maybe an over. But I like Oklahoma. I just think you are you're really paying at tax. I remember Oklahoma was really good until they got into conference. But I think they were undefeated in non conference place and decent wings in there. So I'll go Oklahoma plus the points and to advance here.
TODDI yeah, thirteen to zero a non conference play.
I like Oklahoma two. I would probably play him first half to hang around because I don't want to get beat when they're down three at the end and there's a foul. But I'd probably play Oklahoma first half. I like Oklahoma. I think Connecticut is not good enough on defense this year. And while I don't like going against Bobby Hurley, Oklahoma for me has been under the radar team all you're give me Oklahoma.
What about going against Danny Hurley, Bobby or Danny Okay Yukon. By the way, going for a three p we probably should mention the last team of three peat, UCLA in nineteen seventy three, the seventh championship in a row for them in nineteen seventy three. Ukon. Of course, we'll have to play Florida, one would think, in round number two in a round the thirty two. This also in the West Friday in Seattle. Those games, by the way, weren't Raleigh. These are in Seattle, number five, Memphis, number twelve, Colorado State. Curious to hear your thoughts on this. Memphis won the American Athletic Penny Hardaway. The coach Tyrese Hunter was hurt in the final, didn't play versus UAB fastest pace in the nation for Memphis seventy two possessions per game. Colorado State won the Mountain West Nie Clifford. They're big Star ten game win streak after starting fifteen to nine, and Colorado State is the two point favorite here as the ten excuse me as the twelve seed?
Can I go first this time?
Oh?
Yeah, because we'll get to go first every year?
Sorry?
Does this seem fair? Colorado State Rams? Give me the Rams. Memphis is the epitome of the opposite of what I like in the tournament. I like buttoned up, button down teams, professionalism, I like non stupidity, I like grittiness. I don't like any of those things with the Memphis Tigers. I'm not a big Anferny Hardaway coaching fan. I don't like how they play. It's to Lucy Goosey, and this Colorado State team has been playing very very well lately. Give me the Rams to go against a loosey, goosey Memphis team and get home.
I would go opposite if Memphis had their point guard Hunter. But the fact that you're gonna give me the lesser coach team without their point guard, I got it to me geez.
The Rams, Willie just take They're probably right.
You're probably right. Clifford's a tremendous player. This game is fascinating. The numbers don't like Memphis at all either, obviously by the Ken Palm. None of these projections really like them, and it's evident here by them being a two to two and a half point underdog in a lot of spots.
This is very much maybe the coolest bracket of the ball, the most interesting. Memphis Memphis Colorado State winner takes on the winner of Maryland. Grand Canyon. The four thirteen also Friday and Seattle. Maryland the Crab five of Maryland. Great nickname Crab five really is it was that Queen reyes, Rice Gillespie and Miguel They have the highest scoring starting five in the nation. Freshman of the year Derek Queen. He was unbelievable against Michigan the game that Maryland lost there at the Buzzer on the tie Edney like Coast to Coast Jam, not Jam, but Lamp. They outscore their opponents by sixteen point four points per game. That's seventh best in D one. They're Ken bomb twelve Maryland, but Grand Canyon out of the Whack, which Todd and I went to see in person the other night here at at Orleans. Most points per game and highest points per game differential in the Whack. They won the Whack tournament as plus one thirty short shots did the Lopes did the Antelopes. Maryland was an eleven point favorite, then they went to a ten point favorite. Now they're back to ten and a half.
Dotty, Well, here's the thing. Grand Canyon, a university at the bottom of a canyon. Very shocking, that's right anyway in the canyon. Yeah, I'm very you know, I like Maryland. But the thing is, I don't know if they're gonna be able. I think Maryland will find a way to squeak through, but this could be dangerous. This is another one of those first half doggy situations where you might want to hang around with the Lopes, you know, getting I don't know, what do you get five six points in the first half? You know, Maryland? Might you know again? I used to play pick up with Kevin Willard, the coach of Maryland. You may have heard the story. I never heard you say that before, and he was his dad was the coach at the University of Pittsburgh or Ralph Willard and anyways, coach Willard, he's not bad. But you know, I don't know. Maryland scares me sometimes. It just they have so much talent, but then there's just a certain there, you know something. I don't think Willard's a very good coach. By the way, Yeah, I don't know. If he's very I wouldn't put him elite. That's certainly true. So you know, I'm not sure. I think it's probably Maryland gets home. But I'd be a little nervous in the first half if you, you know, were laying points.
Not that many futures I have. Maryland is one. I have like sixty one. I didn't even get the best number and I kind of jumped on the jumped on board late. What scares me from Maryland's perspective is they only play the five guys, and Grand Canyon draws a lot of fouts in your top ten in the country in fault fouls drawn rate and free throw attempts. So if you get those guys in foul trouble, then you start having a dust off guys from Maryland that don't play. That could be an issue. That being said, Grand Canyon plays fast. I don't like teams trying to pull upsets that play fast. What's the saying upsets happened in the fifties and sixties, don't happen in like the seventies of the eighties.
Good at the point, Willy. I love that point by you, Willie, because it's easier to win the game if there's less possessions. I love that point by Willie.
And if it's one way or the other, says Peter Keating, who did the Giant Killers thing at ESPN for years. It's either you super up tempo, well not super up tempo, but you hoist a bunch of threes right to cut the variants that way, or you slow it down unbelievably. That's interesting, but neither of you were picking it out right. Upset fork. Okay.
Grand Canyon has the oldest player in the national NCAAA. We watched him the other day. I don't really know how old he is, but he looks about thirty five.
Way to bring the facts to their full to their full extent, other side of the other side of the west. Now we go to Thursday games. These are in Wichita, number six, Missouri, number six seeded Missouri against number eleven Drake. Oh, talk about a team that slows it down. Drake, number one scoring d in the nation, fifty eight point four points allowed Missou. What can you say nice about them?
Oh?
Second best free throw percentage free throws per game, nineteen point six made per game. Missoo and Drake Missoo the Ken Palm number fifteen Toddy who's advancing here?
This is super interesting because Missou they have so they have a lot of talent. They can play with anybody, but this I'd be very scared if I was Missoo because this is the kind of team I think Drake could really give them. You know, if they slow the they're gonna slow the game down. They're going to try to play it less than sixty posessis. That's what they do against everybody, not just against you know, a big time team like Missou and Missoo could I could see them getting frustrated and getting themselves in trouble. I think Missooi find a way to get through just because they have just so so much talent. But this Drake team they come in with. The Division two coach who won the championship brought all his guys with them like fourth year guys, so they're really experienced, they're really well coached. I am not laying the points here. I mean, if anything, i'd take Drake in the first half, you know, plus.
The points Missoo favored by six and a half. Total is not quite Houston low, but one thirty three and a half is the tie for the second lowest total here.
I you know, I think Missoo will probably get home, but I definitely don't want to be laying the points.
Really, I think Drake has only lost one game by seven or more points all year. The question here can Drake slow the game enough to close the gap in athleticism that Missouri has. I think if you like Drake, you probably have to parlay it to the under just because that's their style. And plus, you know, a phasick way to approach this is if they're covering six and a half, that means it's a close game. And if it's a close game, there's no free throw. So I think if you like Drake, you parlay the six and a half with the under and vice versa, Missouri to the over. I think Drake slows it down. I think they place low enough and they're well coached enough. I don't love Gates as a coach. I think that the coaching advantage goes to Drake. Style advantage goes to the underdog. I would take the six and a half year. I'll take Missouri to advance. So I don't feel great about it all right.
Winner of Missouri Drake the six to eleven plays the winner of Texas Tech and UNC Wilmington. That's the three fourteen in which Dall on Thursday, Texas Tech fourth highest offensive efficiency in D one twenty five and eight. On the year you un see Wilmington twenty seven and seven. This year twenty three and one, when they score more than seventy they won the Colonial Athletic as a two to one proposition. Texas Tech though big favorites here, Toddy, you can go first, Willie Texas on sixteen point favorites, by the way.
Wilmington twenty seven and oh when they outscore their opponents too, that's a stat you can you can thank you people too.
Yeah, I think.
Wilmington can get to the line en off play good enough offense to maybe cover this number, which feel like I'm saying about a lot of these games. I have a hard time seeing them win this game. I'll take Tech to advance, not betting it when lean towards the dog, you're dodd. Texas Tech, by the way, is healthy. Does seem like they're going to have all of their guys, which it seems like they haven't had in months. Seems like every time you watch Texas Tech guy this guy is down or that guy's down. It's almost like you whackamall where one guy comes back, another guy's down. But looks like they're gonna be fully healthier.
Texas Tech only played one top one hundred team in the entire season. That was Kansas on the road. They lost by eighteen. I kind of liked Wilmington the times that I've seen them. They kind of seemed like a buttoned up team, like a professionalism. They had professionalism. But I like Texas Tech, so I don't. I'm just gonna say Texas Tech's going through. I don't have any opinion on the line.
Last couple brackets in the West. Number seven Kansas thirty fifth straight season in the NCAA thirty five against ten seed at Arkansas, one of the fourteen one of the record fourteen SEC teams. Kansas and Arkansas Thursday in Providence.
I will okay, wow, okay, but you want to go first, go ahead, I will no, because I be I'm gonna be quick. If you bet this game, no matter what happens, you deserve what's coming to you. I have no idea what to expect from either one of these things. These teams are just all over them Mo.
Kansas favored by four. Toddy.
I hate Kansas. I hate him with a passion or a red hot passion.
Tournament.
I don't really want Calibar in a tournament game, but I can totally see them taking it down to the wire on this one. I'll take the points here and I want Arkansas. I think Arkansas is going to get through Cali Perry. You know, we all know about him. Uh. I just think that they've been playing better lately. Kansas has been a tremendous disappointment. If you've ever gone to the fog Allen Field House and you see what kind of home court advantage Kansas has, you'll you'll you'll realize very quickly why they always, you know, very often have flame outs in the tournament. The home court there is incredible. I once went to a game there and I was like, this is the most unbelievable advantage I've ever seen in sports.
Did you play pick up with any of their coaching because.
I did not play pick up with anything, but I did tell Youbert Davis to pass me the damn ball before before I knew it was him, because I didn't want to sit down.
And he wasn't playing very hard.
Right, No, he wasn't playing hard.
Which Todd's stories are more told the Hubert Davis won the Willard One or him going to watch Kansas in person winner of Kansas Arkansas, and it could be Calipari versus Betino because the winner of that game plays the number two fifteen winner. That the two fifteen winner, I should say Thursday and Providence Saint John's the Johnny's of Saint John's second best defensive efficiency in D one. They're Ken Palms overall number eleven. The Johnny's are taken on Omaha twenty two to twelve, first ever trip to the NCAA's Omaha is in as the Summit League. Chance. No, not that one Omaha. They won the Summit League. But remember they won by defaults and Saint Thomas was ineligible, but they went ahead and they won the final game. Anyway, they were plus four to fifty before that tournament. Saint John's monster favorites. Will you have them advancing? What about an eighteen and a half point spread.
Omaha does some things well. They can shoot it, they can rebound, which is a start. I just I think this is almost like going from facing a knuckleball pitcher when you're in the Summit League to going against the physicality of Saint John's. It's almost like going from facing the knuckleball to face and you know, Paul Schemes or something like that. I think Saint John's just smothers them, pulls away. This is one where if you like Saint John's, maybe you play the full game because if you notice they're in such great shape, they dominate these last five to seven minutes where Creighton was right with them. Creighton led most of that game, and next thing you look up, Saint John's up at thirteen to fifteen points. Maybe Omaha team total under. I don't see much of a path here for Omaha other than just getting blistering hot. I just think Saint John's good too, good defensively, so it'll be a lean towards Saint Johns then number and Saint John's advancing Mister Wishnew.
One of the few teams I haven't seen on TV or on my little you know things watching ESPN Plus because the Summit League charges nine to ninety nine to watch any of their games, and in principle I will not pay it. Because these jerkoffs think they can get away with charging me nine ninety nine to watch some of league basketball. I can pay nine ninety nine and watch ESPN Plus watch a mi million games. So I haven't seen much of om Actually I've never seen him. So you know what, screw them, take Saint John's or you just the.
Goddamn cheap skate.
Yes, that could be true too.
All right to the East Friday Duke will play the winner of the play in game between American and Mount Saint Mary's. Well, oh, like admit Atlantic DMV kind of thing American from the Patriot League. They won the Patriot League is a plus two to fifty short shot, and then Mount Saint Mary's fourteen and oh this year, what's scoring more than seventy points? They won the Metro Atlantic as a nine to one shot. How about that? So you have nothing on the American Mount Saint Mary's game, and obviously we don't have the Duke number correct.
Nothing worth mentioning though.
You ton no, and if you look at what those teams have done against top one hundred, they've gotten Just to give an example, American lost by fifty two to North Carolina. That good, not good.
The winner of that, and we assume it will be Duke. We'll take on the winner of the Mississippi State Baylor eight to nine game in Raleigh on Friday. Mississippi State started fourteen and one, then they went seven and eleven down the stretch, but find themselves in the eight line against a Baylor here on Friday, Mississippi State Baylor. The number on that game is two in favor of the Bulldogs of Mississippi State.
Will he, why don't you do with this one? Because I don't really have a good feeling.
I have nothing. Flip a coin. I'll go with Baylor. They're on up and down team Mississippi State. Their defense. I'll let you get some open looks so Baylor can knock them down the win. Baylor is very athletic in terms of offensive rebounding. But you can convince me of anything in this game. This is fitting for an eight nine game two point boss.
It's funny because I have ditto to say exactly what you say, except I have Mississippi State going through even though I don't know.
Why have you? Have you all picked one like one long one high seed to get or is it low seed? I always get high seed? Low seed? Messed up? Have you picked like a twelve thirteen Yale?
Yale?
You did pick picked?
I'm about to do one.
Okay, Well, here's the good reason I ask is because next is This is Friday in Seattle, the five to twelve in the East Region, number five Oregon in Altman's Oregon Ducks at the five seed out here, they finished eight and one to end the season against number twelve Liberty, Liberty, Flames twenty five and oh when you don't crack seventy points against them, They allowed sixty three points per game. They won Conference USA as a plus one point fifteen short shot the five twelve on Friday and the number on this is Oregon by a touchdown, Oregon by seven.
Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty. I like liberty, and I hate going against Oregon. This is another situation where they're making me pick against one of the teams I usually. I mean, Dana Altman, what a great NCAA tournament coach, but this is not his best team obviously. But Liberty. I really like Liberty. Liberty played two top one hundred teams they played Kansas State beat him by two on a neutral, beat McNeese by four on a neutral. Those are the only two. But I've seen Liberty a lot this year. They have the You watch the team and you think, Okay, this is the kind of team that could pull upsets against teams that are athletic better than them because they just play that real buttoned.
Up, gritty gritty.
They're gritty, they button it up, And I really I like Liberty a lot here, and that's I like them so much that I'm gonna pick against Oregon, a team I hate to pick against, but I'm gonna pick Liberty.
If if you're gritty and buttoned up or button down, that super sizes well, if.
You're gritty and professionally buttoned up, then that's a lot big thing will.
Last time Liberty was in the tournament, I think I had some big parley with them getting seven against Oklahoma State. Was that who's the lottery pick on Oklahoma State yet that year was it Cunningham? Yeah? And then uh, Liberty was a bad beat because they were up at the half and they end up losing by I think eight, and they missed a wide open put back at the end to not cover. I could just I don't like the fact this game is in Seattle. It's a de facto home game for Oregon. I think a lot of their stuff is like cutting and movement all means a good coach in terms of prep, I could see them hanging around if you. If I had to bet it, I'm not laying it here. I just don't think they win. If this were more of a neutral court, I'd be more interested in Liberty. I just think the fact that you have such a good coach in Altman and you have the home court advantage is enough for me to stay off the outright upset.
You betting Liberty on the money line or just plus the points ton.
If I had to bet at I'd bet Liberty first half, Liberty first half.
But you are advancing them in your brain.
I like Liberty. I really think they could do it all right.
Winner of Oregon Liberty the five to twelve plays the winner of the four thirteen game. That's also Friday in Seattle. That's between Arizona, number four seed twenty two to twelve Ken Palm's fourteenth team overall against Macron, the Akron Zips, who erased an eighteen point deficit to win the MAC title game in dramatic fashion. Sixth and d one in terms of three point field goals made in a game, ten point nine they hoisted. So talk about a giant killer kind of profile. Akron's got it. They won the MAC Tournament as plus one thirty five shot Arizona and Akron the four thirteen Arizona is a fourteen point two touchdown face.
I mean, Acrod is if you've bought Acord at all this year, it's very entertaining. They just run up and shoot three and then they run back.
Remember that team we're watching like they got nothing else but threes.
What Akron is just fun to want. But if they're making their threes, they probably could beat the Lakers. I mean, that's that's the deal. You know, they're just gonna come up, They're gonna run up and and see here's the thing. I don't like Arizona, but you know that just kind of plays into the way Arizona wants to play two. This will just come down to whether Akron's making the threes or not. If they make a bunch of threes, anything's possible, even Arizona losing. I have Arizona going through, and if I had to bet it, I'd probably bet Akron plus the points first half. I'm not going to but I'll take Arizona to go through. But Akron is very entertaining, and that, by the way, that could easily be an over. What's the total? One sixty seven. There's a reason why it's one sixty seven, folks. It's because there's gonna be a lot of shots going at the basket.
One sixty seven. H was I wrong? Yeah, it's more than Alabama by a point and a half. So that is the highest total in all these games. Acron, Arizona, it's.
Not high enough. I think you're gonna I think that closes maybe closer to once, like one seventy or so. Arizona is happy to run. Acrons just gonna shoot nothing but three. He's not playing any defense. I could see this being I could see Arizona scored one hundred in this game and It's like I said before, upsets happened in the fifty sixties, not in the seventies, eighties, nineties. It would really take a ton of three pointers from Akron. So I'll advance. Arizona have nothing on the side.
I do like the over all right to the other half of the East Region. And yes, this is the East Region with teams like Oregon and Arizona in it.
Do we have to go faster? By the way, are we okay for time?
Well, a little faster. We got to hype it up a little bit, all right? Why why do you ask? You just wanted to set.
Oh, I just want to make sure I'm not Ramlington.
No, you're good. You're good.
He knows the guy who runs the show doesn't keep track of certain things.
Oh, I do keep dragging. Look at the whole time. Thursday, other side in Denver. This is another one of those where teams. This is two teams that people liked and they ended up putting them against each other. Six to eleven game Thursday in Denver between BYU and VC six and eleven b YU. Most, by the way, most NCAA appearances without ever making a final four BYU thirty one.
Of them against that. Can I go first with you against VCU.
By the way, Max Shulga the A ten Conference Player of the Year the highest offensive and defensive efficiency in A ten. The Rams won the Atlantic ten Conference Tournament championship a great game against George Mason, which didn't quite get to the number we needed it too. Todd b YU VCU six eleven. The spread on this game is BYU minus a field goals.
Can I guess your pick, Todd? Can I guess you're analysis? In one sentence, You're gonna say VCUS grittiness is too much for BYU.
I'm not gonna even use the word gritties. I'm gonna go one step further. I'm gonna go Houston like VCU is like Houston light. Okay, they are just relentless defensively. I see this is another sent I like BYU too. They they screwed me. I have VCU four hundred to one on like a small little fun take it, and I like VCU. Now here's the thing. BYU struggled with Houston a couple of times this year. Houston's athletes just locked down the three point shooters, because that's what BYU does. Very well is shoot, they have a million guys that stand on the perimeter make threes, but Houston had enough athleticism to hang. And because VCU is kind of Houston light in a sense, they're really going to defend. I think VCU can win this game and shut down enough BYU three point shots to get this in an absolutely stunning ball game, maybe like sixty four to sixty three VCU.
Do you have VCU advancing, VCU obviously covering as.
Well, then yeah, I mean I'm not I'm probably not gonna bet the cover, but yeah, I would take VCU.
You know VC, I agree with pretty much everything Todd said.
It worries me.
I feel like this is a stupid reason to pick VCU. I have a hard time getting that BYU Doucane game out of my head from early in the tournament last year when BYU just got run off the floor, and I think I had BYU and survivor too. What bothers me about VCU this game? You said, this game is in Colorado, right.
Gilly, Yeah, Denver.
BYU is a little more acclimated to the altitude. MECU just played a few games for games in three days, and that was a ugly game against George Mason, leaning towards VCU, but I think this is a possible.
Are they also acclimated to the elevation in addition to the altitude.
I think just the altitude off to check winner is.
The Mormon factor too, So they're going against the Mormons, which is you know, that's an added extra thing for BYU.
By U VCU winner takes all the winner of Wisconsin Montana. The three fourteen, also in Denver on Thursday. Wisconsin highest scoring Badgers team since nineteen seventy one since the seventy seventy one season. Eighty two point eight percent free throw percentage second best in D one for Wisconsin, no shocker. I'm sure Todd has a theory about that fourteen Montana Grizzlies. They have a second best field goal percentage in D one fifty point two percent Wisconsin. The three fourteen game against the Grizzlies, who won the Big Sky Tournament. Wisconsin is a seventeen point favorite.
Toddy Willie I Wisconsin. I like Wisconsin to go through. I'm not laying all those points, but I love Wisconsin this year. Give me Wisconsin.
Did oh and then same thing about what what's your joke? Altitude and the other thing elevation, elevations, it is used to the elevation. Wisconsin another team that just played with three days, three games and three days. Now they're dealing with the elevation, not laying it.
Wisconsin probably wins altitude, the distance between the floor and your booty, elevation, the difference between sea level and where you are. Winner of Wisconsin Montana takes on the winner of the seven to ten Oh no, pardon me, I have that wrong. Last two brackets, we're already do that. Winner of Wisconsin Montana took on the winner BYUVCU the last two brackets in this region. Friday in Cleveland Saint Mary's, the Gaels are the seventh seed, out rebounding opponents by ten point seven rebounds per game, the best in D one against number ten Vanderbilt, one of the fourteen from the SEC. Seven to ten game with Saint Mary's favored byooooooo four Wow, what do you think will that's playing it?
But yeah, I like Saint Mary's And you mentioned the rebounding. They just they stack the odds in their favor or they're just getting extra possessions. The way the offensive rebound, defensive rebound, horse turnovers, don't turn it over. It's not always pretty to watch, but I would think they win. I'm rooting for them to win too, because then if it's if that's Never's Bama in round two. That's a fascinating contrast of styles. But I will pick Saint Mary's to advance. Don't have much interest in laying the number though.
I don't want to lay the points because I like Vanderbilt too, but I like Saint Mary's.
Now.
This is if you're wondering what I keep talking about with buttoned up teams. Saint Mary's is a buttoned up team. They will not beat themselves. They will do the right thing. They will make the extra pass, they will not turn the ball over, they will rebound the ball. They will do all the things you want to do if you want to stay on the court in a situation. Let's say you're at the park and you know everyone's throwing the ball all over the place. Saint Mary's will do the right thing. Now, Vanderbilt has been a good team, and I've like Vanderbilt all year, but I think Saint Mary's gets through. I think this is a better Saint Mary's than we've seen in the past, which were also very buttoned up teams. I love that coach Saint Mary's to move on. I don't want to touch the spread because that's too much, but I like Saint Mary's.
Okay, And the winner of that game, Saint Mary's Vanderbilt takes on the winner of Alabama. Robert Morris the two fifteen Robert Morris Horizon League champions. They were plus two forty to win the Horizon League Conference tournament and they did sixteen more wins than the year ago. For Robert Morris their twenty six and eight on the season, Bama ninety one point one points per game. They cracked ninety eighteen times this year. Ken Palm's number six. But Grant Nelson's knee is a question and we don't know we're doing this Monday morning. We don't know what the full status is on him. But Bama obviously huge favorite. We expect them to advance. What about the uh, the colossal number, which is boo.
Boopoo, twenty three and one sixty five and a half.
Yeah, twenty three and one sixty five and a half. Anything you want to touch.
That that could go over because I think Robert Morris could score a little bit. They're pretty decent scoring, so I wouldn't wouldn't shock me if the game went over. But you know, how are you going to figure out if BAM is gonna win by twenty three or not? That's you know, yeah, well that's.
One of those They're playing close to home, right Robert Morris is in Pennsylvania. This is in Cleveland, So I don't know, does it matter enough to give them any sort of home court? Probably not. BAM was gonna win. Not betting the game though.
East Region takes on the Midwest Region champion in the final four our final Region Thursday, Number one Houston, Number sixteen SIU Edwardsville their first ever appearance in the for the Cougars ever. In the NCAA's they won the Ohio Valley as a plus two seventy short shot not short shot, but they were the number two seed anyway, plus two seventy proposition. Houston second in scoring defense in the nation. They only give up fifty eight point five points per game. They're Ken Bombs overall number three, they're the overall number three in this in this bracket as well. Houston with the lowest total. Again, this is the lowest total on the board Houston and SIU Edwardsville. That total is one twenty six and a half. Houston favored by twenty eight and a half. Houston advances any touching the number at all.
Well, last year Houston played Longwood and held long with the sixteen points in the first half. I can see a similar game here under forty eight and a half team totals total for SIU Edwardsville. Just go look at some of the teams and scores. This is a dreadful offense. They might get shut out. I'm gonna go Houston by a shutout, double.
Bagall shut them out.
By the way, great call by Willy here, because I you know, I always looked at the early season scores for the teams against US, Like Jackson State had forty against them, Louisiana had forty five, Hofstra forty four, even Notre Dame fifty four. Butler a decent team only at fifty one, Troy forty two, Toledo forty nine, Texam Corpus Christy fifty one, Oklahoma State forty seven. I mean, Houston is going to probably hold them in the forties and the team total is gonna be around forty nine, so that would be very interesting.
All right, winner of HU Houston, SIU Edwardsville. We assume it's going to be Houston takes on the winner of the eight nine game Thursday in Wichita. Houston games also in Wichita, Gonzaga in Georgia. I know, Todd has I'm going to say about this, Gonzaga on the eight line. Here is the ac twenty sixth straight NCAA tournament for Gonzaga, nine straight sweet sixteens. That's amazing, nine straight sixteen's number two in the nation in scoring. By the way, people probably I don't know if people knew that Ken bombs number nine overall forty three point three paints paints points per game, most in D one. They won the West Coast Conference tournament against guests who Saint Mary's and Georgia out of the SEC. They haven't won Attorney game since two thousand and two. Fourteen and oh, straight up, when they score seventy five plus Gonzaga and Georgia, and Gonzaga is a six and a half point favorite. This is actually they've actually taken money. This was a six point favorite. Nowt six and a half.
It ends all those trends and Georgia bulldog's money line. Give me the body line, Jo Georgia. I don't like the Zags. I don't like Mark Sew this year. Get the hell out of here, e k inside will not be able to dominate against SEC players. Georgia went toe to toe with the best in the business this year and showed up really, really well. George is a really good team that I think people like. I think people sleep on Oklahoma. I think they sleep on Georgia. I think they're sleeping here against a Ziggity Zag team that lost two times during the regular season to Saint Mary's, which usually doesn't happen. Sure they did beat him in the tournament, but still, I don't like Gonzaga this year like I have in the past. Georgia Bulldog's money line. They go through here we go.
Wow, this is a nine eight game.
Echo, I'll echo that. I'll take Georgia. I like Georgia plus the points anyway, I could see Georgia winning this game. I do think in Zaga, what are the eighth or nineteen ken balm, I don't see that at all. Just again, that's usually a pretty well respected metric. I just watching them, I don't see it. They've lost every time they stepped up in competition. They've lost except for Baylor early in the year for the most part. I'll hop on you with the Georgia.
Georgia Gonzaga nine overall in Ken Paul, Yeah, I'm with you. I don't see it either. Also Thursday, this is a providence though in this region. Number five, the five to twelve game Clemson and McNeese. Clemson only acc team to beat Duke this year. They're twenty three and zero one, allowing seventy or fewer points McNeese. The Southland Conference attorney chaps they were minus five hundred big favorites prohibited favorites in that tournament Clemson and McNeese, with Clemson a seven and a half point favorite.
I like this McNee team. I've watched them a number of times. They're very good on offense. The problem is I like Clemson two. I like the Clemson coach. I like what the Clemson team does. They're another team not going to beat themselves. So it really puts me in a quandary here. I guess if you've forced me, I take McNeese. First half points, but I think Clemson will get through.
Both teams twenty seven and six this year. Go ahead.
Remember last year, mcneise was a very trendy pick, and they were down about thirty in the first half to Gonzaga. They never got off with the you know, never got off the bus. I would be tempted to pick McNeese if they were playing somebody else. But I do think this Clemson team is quite good. I thought Clemson got a rough West. I don't know if you guys saw it the acc Semis against Louisville. They got a couple questionable calls. Non calls go against them. But I like this Clemson team. I think they win, not interestingly in the point.
So Clemson McNeese the five twelve game. The winner takes on the winner of Perdue and High point A four to thirteen.
By the way, before you run away from McNeice, just so you know, they lost by eight Tobama, They beat North Texas, they lost by four to Liberty, lost by seven to Santa Claire, and lost by three to Mississippi State. So they have what it takes to stay in games. Just so you know.
No, that's I like that. That's the Haslo Metrics. Perdue. High Point, the winner of Clemson McNeese, takes on the winner of the four to thirteen game between Purdue and high Point. Perdue forty nine percent field goal percentage best in the Big Ten. High Point winners of the Big Seven Conference. Attorney as minus two to fifty favorites in that they have the best or it had the best offensive and defensive efficiency in a Big South. For what that's worth, Perdue eight point favorites.
Will I will take high Point plus the points. I will take high Point to advance. I don't like this Purdue team. I don't like their defense now high Point, they haven't played the best competition. I worry about their defense that maybe this is one that goes over. And I don't like breaking my rule of taking upsets where it's going to be more of an over than an under. But I just I don't like this Purdue team. I think high Point can really score with them, so I will I'll take high Point to advance.
I like your over idea. High Point's a huge over team all year because they're better on offense than they are on defense, and Purdue really doesn't strike me as tremendously good on defense. High Point only played one top one hundred team. They beat North Texas, and that says something because North Texas they bring the defensive bona fides, So that was quite a win for the High Pointer. So you know, get Willie, I'm gonna you know, I'm gonna second to hang around and look at it. Look at that point you go bona feidis instead of bout of five. Well those two, okay.
Other side of this region six eleven game between Illinois and Texas. Illinois highest scoring team in the Big Ten a plus eight point eight rebound differential per game, six best in D one. Texas led by Trey Johnson. You know, Trey Johnson had the most at the highest scoring average in the SEC. Is that true?
He's a good player.
They miscalculated nine nineteen point eight points per game, Oh Texas, I'm sorry Texas. Xavier, of course, is the.
Player I like Xavier in the playing game, like Xavier.
Xavier is one and nine. By the way, we talk about North Carolina being one to twelve against Squad one, Xavier is one and nine versus squad one opponents. So you both like Xavier over Texas, and we don't have a line for Xavier Illinois or all make the line?
You ready? Yeah, it's gonna be Illinois favored by five ish? Is that sone? Right?
Yeah? I was thinking four and a half five.
Okay, But you both like Xavier and I want Zavier to beat the Aligne. I hate this a line I team. They're the opposite of what I always talk about. I don't know if you know what I talk about, but I won't say it. Illinois is a sham, folks. They're a sham. I've seen too many ridiculously poor performances with no defensive responsibilities. Taken seriously, it is a joke. Give me the Xavier team against this joke of an Aliini team.
Assuming Xavier gets by Texas Friday, all that's in Friday and Milwaukee, also Friday and Milwaukee. The winner of Illinois and Texas slash Xavier plays the winner of Kentucky Troy the three to fourteen Kentucky twenty two and eleven, not a single player back from last year. For the Wildcats, eighty five point three points per game was the fourth most in D one. Troy won the Sun Belt as a plus three point fifty proposition won the Sun Belt Conference tournament. Troy a fifth best offensive rebounding percentage in D one forty percent, but Kentucky obviously a lar favorite in this one, specifically by eleven Will Todd.
You can go first. I don't have much here.
I mean, Troy is like a grinder team. You know, I don't know if they have enough offense. See, sometimes these teams that are like grinder teams, they can't hang around because even if they played great defense against team like Kentucky, Kentucky's still gonna get their points. And if this team can't get their points, it's gonna be hard to do it. So you know, Troy played Arkansas, lost by sixteen, played Oregon lost by twenty one, lost by twenty to Houston. That's not embarrassing at all, and then played like Arkansas States. But I you know what, I don't really want either side. I don't really trust Kentucky. But I'll say Kentucky will move on all right.
Last two brackets in this region and in the whole field Thursday in Lexington. This didn't happen when we were kids, did it? Ucla and Utah State and Lexington seven seed Ucla against number ten seeded Utah State UCLA led the Big Ten in scoring. Such a weird sentence that they led the Big ten in scoring scoring D. Pardon me not scoring scoring D. Twenty five percent off points of their points were off turnovers, six most in Division one. Utah State. Three different coaches in the last three years, three straight NC double as.
Ah About that, Oh about that? That's ow about that? As UCLA Uta State. UCLA favored by five and a half.
Willie USA is the much better defensive team. They're gonna win, I would think, But I don't have much interest in lane five and a half.
You know, I have ucl doing very well in this tournament regions. Possibly mid Cronin got mad at his team mid season and win went on a rant. And ever since then, they've you know, started to play really, you know, defensively the way they're supposed to. And now I like UTA State again. It's another situation. It's two teams. I like, why do they keep doing this to me? I'm gonna take UCLA to get through. I don't want to do the point spread, but I'll take UCLA to go through.
All right. Winner of UCLA Utah State takes on the winner of the two fifteen game. Also Thursday in Lexington, Tennessee versus Wolford Wafford. Is it Wafford or Wofford? Is Wafford? Wafford Terriers won the Southern Conference Tournament as a sixth seed. They won it as a five to one betting proposition. Tennessee held the number one position in the AP rankings for five weeks this season. They got the third best defensive field goal percentage in D one, holding their opponents to thirty eight point two percent shooting their Ken Palms number five overall, I assume we all have Tennessee advancing and Tennessee over Wafford on Thursday. Is what are they favored by? They are favored by a people in nineteen is what I'm saying.
Wafford only played one top one hundred team. They played Duke. They lost in its close one fifty one points. It was closed for a while.
They had a couple overtimes. Maybe they could have made it up.
Ran out so nothing spread.
Okay.
Now, I know Wafford plays slow, which is at least a good start, But Tennessee doesn't mind playing that pace either, so Wafford.
Okay, So how many how many like outright upsets did we have in the.
Entire plus six in the money line. That was pretty big Georgia. But that's a liberty, liberty.
Liberty, liberty. You have them winning outright liberty. Okay, George is a nine to eight, but I hear you against Gonzaga, so liberty was one and Yale will he had Yale and high Point. H oh, you got high Point also.
I didn't like. I wasn't taking high Point to move, but I like his whole story about.
That liberty taken on Oregon. By the way, Yale, the what do you call the ellis of Yale? What are they called? Yale against Texas A and m as A thirteen four Yale Bulldogs, right, and then the IVY League champs, and then high Point. High Point is a very popular, right. I'm a little worried about that one too, because it feels like it's super popular against Purdue in a thirteen to four. Okay, to the nether regions of the whole bracket, as Todd calls it. Now, we don't just do Final four here, we do Elite eight. And by the way, you can bet all of these, so you can bet every team at a sight like draftks. You can bet them to get to the sweet sixteen, to get to the Elite eight, to get to win the region, to get to to get to the Final four, to get to the championship game, to win it all. So there's all kinds of options these days. But let's do our Elite eight. Who wants first? You want me to go first, you go first. I'll go first, uh, Elite eight. And by the way, if you're watching the ESPN show on this, Jay Williams and Jay Billis both went one two one two one two one two, and they both had in their final four one one one one.
Well that's analysis, it's well, it's it might be one of those brackets though, by the way, last time all four ones.
Got to the final four was two thousand and eight. I think that's the only time it happened, by the way, but that's certainly the last time. All Right, I have Auburn and Michigan State in the South, that's the one two. I got the one three in the West, I'm going Florida and Texas Tech. I got the one two in the East Duke and Bama, and I got the one two in the midwest Houston and ten mm, Toddy, hmm, he says, I have a little.
Something for you. The Texas A and M. Maggie's will defeat Auburn in the Sweet sixteen game and go to the Final eight, and Bruce Pearl can suck it. Texas A and M. My thing's falling out of my ear. But I'll take Texas A and M to go to the final eight beating Auburn. They will face the Michigan State Spartans and tom Izzo. Give me tom Izzo anytime, and at the eight tournament rolls around, give me Tommy Izzo. So if Texas A and M against Michigan State in the final eight and that side of it, then on the other side of my favorite team, the Florida Gators, and I've said about that and Saint John's Ricky Puttino bringing the defense against Texas Tech, who I really do love. I really love that team. However, I just think there's gonna be too much defensive pressure by Saint John's. It's gonna be Saint John's and Florida on that one. On the other one, I don't even know which region they're called, so I just call it the other one. East Duke will go in beating Liberty in the Sweet sixteen, Liberty getting all the way to the Sweet sixteen after knocking off Tommy Lloyd's joke of a team, the Arizona Wildcats. And it's Liberty versus Duke. Too much Duke, So Duke goes and they play Wisconsin the cheese Heads. The cheese Heads go through beating Bama in an amazing Sweet sixteen game. It scores one hundred and twenty four to one hundred and twenty three. Final Wisconsin in three overtimes to beat Bama. And it's Duke Wisconsin on that one. In the Midwest and then the Midwest, like the Houston Cougars, they're just gonna just rumble through at the defensive and offensive rebounding and now they can shoot the ball a little bit. This is a little different from Houston. So give me Houston in the Final eight against you see La oh Man, you see La beats Tennessee. They take on Kentucky in the far Final sixteen and somehow get by them. And it's UCLA against Houston. Two teams that just want to muck it up.
So you have Texas, A and m Wisconsin and UCLA as three of your elite eight.
Is that wrong?
No? I love it. I love it. You know what? You know what I usually say in these situations. Better, you know you should probably take this bracket and enter it into national contest.
Folks. I wasn't used to using DraftKings because I wasn't no longer allowed to play any decent side, because I had it out of my mind that I could do that. But then if I would have thought about it, just put it in one hundred dollars, they wouldn't have cared if I entered their stupid tournament.
Damn it.
By the way, was the RANDO team you had in the sweet sixteen?
In which one you had a double digit seed in your sweet sixteen?
Who did you say? Liberty? A double digit seed has advanced to the sweet sixteen. At least one double digit seed has reached the sweet sixteen since two thousand and eight.
That's my team Liberty this year, all right, Will.
I'm a little distracted because Fez is sending us in our group chats outrageous text filled with outrage over this new Crown tournament up ending the n I T How does this happen? He's just fighting out about this and losing his mind. All right, we'll start in the West.
I have They're going to be point spreads in all the games. What the hell does he care? He's ridiculous, Steven.
Florida in Texas Tech the one.
Can you start in the south like the rest of us did?
Oh? I apologize, I was I was going to build up for dramatic Okay, for dramatic reasons. Okay, I'll start in the south. Troll me Iowa State, the three seed taking on. You see San Diego, I have Florida in Texas Tech. In the west, and then in the east. This is Duke in Saint Mary.
Wait, you said it so fast. Go back to the beginning.
First one, you see San Diego the Tritans.
Wow.
Wait, you have the Tritons in the Auburn side.
Yes, wow against Iowa State. Man, even without Keyshaw. All right, to the West, Florida, Texas Tech.
Yep. Then Duke versus Saint Mary's I just like these shopsessions. And then Houston versus Illinois. I know they're not buttoned up. I don't care about the Bob.
Houston can't play Illinois. Oh I guess they could. Yeah, No, no, cold Houston plays somebody like Clemson. Oh, you're talking about all the way at the end, you have Illinois to go to the final eight. I'm throwing you off the podcast. You're off the podcast. What are you talking about? Illinois to get to the final way? Willie?
For real, Illinois was like the fifth or sixth favorite to win it all, no season.
The injury is just this is this is blasphemy, Illinois to the final Wait. I hate it, Willie, I hate it.
Wow. So you have UCSD and Iowa State in the south. What's the Iowa State is not crazy? Crazy? But with the injury it is. But but you see SD, and you have Saint Mary's in the east, and you have Illinois in the midway, and you're three again that we're whacky?
Were what the fact that the Illinois going to the final weight I just want to make a Willie stop, don't do it.
What were your three? What were your three whacky? Was? Again? UCLA, UCLA Whiskey Whiskey, Wisconsin.
Texas A and M Michigan State.
I don't think Michigan State is all h okay fine, Texas A and M Texas.
A and M.
Though I will say this, I will say this about you know, because a lot of people are all about Saint John's and Michigan State. Joe Pete uncovered this old Ken Palm tweet from two years ago, all the way back to nineteen eighty five, when they went to sixty four teams, thirty nine different teams who were seeded one or two in the NCAA tournament. Thirty nine were not one in two seeds, were not in the top twenty five preseason poll. Thirty nine teams that were not in the top twenty five preseason pole ended up one and two once the season was said and done, when they when they did selection Sunday, those thirty nine teams, zero of them have exceeded their seeding.
And that's what the deal is with Saint John's Michigan State. That's correct, right, Well, this will be the the trend buster this year.
But match five of the thirty nine have matched so so far. You just said matched the seeding. Michigan State is a two seed, would be in the Elite eight Final four, because we got to get out of here, Todd. Your final four from your Elite.
Eight is Michigan State, Izzo's versus the Florida Gators on one side.
Now, you have busted that, you know, Okay, and the Whiskey beach Duke to go to the Final four, Whiskey with offense this year.
Going against Houston Cougars. And then the final game. Would you like the final game? Two?
Well, give me your whole final four, Give me your whole.
Michigan State plays Florida. Yeah, Whiskey plays Houston.
Whiskey plays Houston. Okay.
If Willie says Illinois goes to the Final four, I'm gonna fly to Connecticut right now and punch him in the face.
Give me your final two and your champ.
Final two floor beats the Zzos. Houston too much for Wisconsin. It's gonna be Florida Gators against the Houston Cougars in a just an absolutely hooting anny of a ball game. And I'll take the Florida Gators to win the championship and cut it down. The Florida Gators are your champions this year.
Will your final four, your title game, and your champ.
Duke Houston, Florida all one seeds except for U see San Diego. The Tritons will join the one seeds, and I have Duke over Florida and the title games.
Duke over Florida, Duke Willie. I mean, I can respect that pick, but it's just like, wow, Duke.
Wow, you guys did it again. You're out lying, for sure. I didn't even go past the Elite eight, but I got I got Florida versus Auburn. I'm going super chalky Florida.
I've never heard of that before.
Yeah, and then I'm going going Duke versus Tennessee.
Henness, he's not doing it. You know that. They have a little bit of a problem there.
Okay, and then it's gonna be Duke versus Florida, and Florida will be Duke in the finals. No, pardon the other way around, Duke will be Florida.
Both of you have Duke. Yeah, Duke, are you aware the Cooper flag? Their best player seems to be slightly injured.
He's playing, man, is he playing? That's what they say? Okay, say he's gonna play. By the way, they look pretty damn good without him. I don't like Dude, well, I don't like Duke either, but I think they're gonna win at all. All Right, that was that Elite eight did not disappoint Well done, gentlemen. Both of you should be entering your brackets in national contests.
I'll never tell as well, Billy was a disappointed dad, like five ten minutes ago, not get enough upsets.
Very very excited.
Now oh we got now now he's all now, he's all juiced up.
Well, this guy's got the tritons all the way he he he drank the trit and juice like a long It is you u c SD trades right? Is that the team name?
Will he just assure us that this is not because you're chasing the fau high. You really mean this for you see.
I can't assure you that no, I did. I did vet them a undred the one to make the final four as well. Okay, like Yale over A and M. I think that'll be a close game that can go either way. And if and I like you see San Diego over Michigan. So if I get Yale in the second round, if I can beat Michigan and get Yale in the second round, I'm in this week sixteen. Who knows Auburn could get Louisville in Kentucky. That that Louisville Cragon eight nine is a tricky one for you know, whoever comes out of that so see.
Does this have anything to do with the UCS, the women's team and some of the ladies on that team.
It does not have a women's tea.
Y'all did great. Thank you, Will Hill at not the Will Hill on Twitter, host of the Should Have Been More podcast, and of course it's part of a Chris Felika's Bear Betts podcast empire. In addition over there Fox Sports, in addition to doing this one to make about it, and Todd Wishnev everybody at t wish nev on Twitter. By the way, Will is that not the Will Hill? In case I didn't mention it at t wish Nevuh, he does his college basketball in game stuff. Although that's obviously winding down the star of the showtime docuseriies action. Thank you for listening, Good luck with all your at aspects and all your brackets. Perhaps more importantly, thanks for listening.
Isn't that the CBS?
No you guys tomorrow for the Woman's Maga Pod. See ya,