Check it on Man down Man, Good Monday morning to do. It is a number of game right here at the four Spetting Network, serious XEP channel tool for Visa dot Com, the Visa f Boobo sling at Game Plus. It is Gil Alexander. Jason con is here as well. Good morning to you, Jason. How are you? How are you? By the way, good? Thanks, go happy Monday. I couldn't go, Howard, I couldn't decide between how are you and how you doing? And that's what came out of my It's good on all accounts. Uh. This is Guessing Lines week eleven in the NFL. That's what we're here for this morning. Of course, we'll briefly touch on Dustin Johnson's amazing coronation at the Masters today. Coronation the entire weekend was that for a Hall of fame golfer who got it done with the green jacket. This weekend we'll talk about that, uh when it comes up sort of organically. Congratulations to everybody who had DJ with their bets. A record twenty under par at Augusta, never been done before his second major of his career. Uh, and of course the NFL will if you're just landing on this show for the first time, we talk about the upcoming week lines. I've been in a cocoon. This is a tribute to the old start US radio show of the same name. I've been in a cocoon since last night. I don't know the lines. I guess them. Chrissie Andrews from the South Point Sports Book, the director of that sports book right here behind us, the tip of the strip. Uh, he tells us what he's going to post after the show. Right after the show, and within that exercise, we got ourselves some value. And uh. Last week, what was the line that I thought was the most ridiculous was Cleveland And yeah, that should have covered. We'll talk about that. We'll talk about that in the Arizona endings, because I think that is those are obviously the two headlines from a Benny standpoint. Let's bring him in my mish book of Chris Andrews. Good morning, Chris. What's going on? I I got questions for you. One. Let's just let's start it out. First of all, congratulations, you have you have four survivor pools that are still four survivor entries. You and your partners are still available. You and your partner partners plural. Oh, I got a bunch of partners. We put in a bunch of stuff all over the place. So it's like, I gotta win one of these to break even. So yeah, I've got a lot of money. But you are in the circle one right with four entries left. Yeah, yeah, that'll if we win that one, that'll pay a few bills. So you know, so we went from three ten to three oh one another. Yeah, the gaunten. The gauntlet begins now. But how did you play it this weekend? Did you have all four on one team? No, we had three gutten. We had three with Green Bay. It's made a sweat. Yeah and uh and then we had one with the Saints. Okay they both did they all got through? Um? Yeah. Now here's my question of a bookmaking standpoint that game last night is we're watching Baltimore, New England, and New England ends up winning it out right. I don't know how, you know, It's like, it's amazing how it always works out for books in the end, That's what it seems like. But a Sunday night game, you probably weren't having the best week, I would imagine, and then that happens. How big of a decision was that for you? Boy? It was big? Yeah, it was big winning that game we wound up not I mean we went to the day and not you know, not like a great number, but like an okay number. If we lost that game, it would have been really bad. So but we went into it and then we need a miracle here because I didn't know New England it beat him, you know, I really didn't. Um, But we got it, you know, and it was nice. It kind of salvage the salvage the weekend because Saturday was not very good at all. Yeah, and we weren't looking very good going into Sunday night. But that that was a big win for us. Great game plan by Belichick, weather helps um was. But you know, you could have said that if the Ravens were up, the weather would help them too, probably. So just a great game plan from start to finish for the Patriots. Patriots when at twenty three to seventeen as outright seven point dogs, they went it out right, that is uh and that's huge. Four books. Let's start with Thursday, because there's so much to get into from yesterday as we're doing this. By the way, for week eleven. For those who are just here for the first time, we of course go back through all the Shenanigans betting in Otherwise, in week ten, what is Thursday Night? Good game? Cardinals at the Seahawks. Oh, that is a good game. Cardinals six and three. Seahawks six and three. Rams are also six and three in the NFC West. Niners not so much. Not their fault. Huge Thursday game. Uh. Arizona wins yesterday on the Hail Mary. I guess people are calling it to Hail Murray, Hail Mary, Hail Mary from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins forty three yards with two seconds left on the clock, and that beats the Bills yesterday and dramatic fashion. After the Bills had scored with just over thirty seconds love, I believe, with thirty four seconds left, Stephen dig scored and Stefon Diggs was on the sideline doing a whole bunch of me me, look at me. Uh that's my translation of what I saw thirty two thirty though the Cardinals hook it up on the on the Murray to Hopkins play. By the way, Bill O'Brien had no need for DeAndre Hopkins, just want to point that out. So if you had the Bills plus two and a half, uh, you end up By the way, it's Gill Alexander and Chris Andrews right here in the numbers game at Visa the Sports Betting Network Serious Except Channel to A four, Visa dot Com, the Visa that Food bos link a game plus guessing lines for week eleven. Looking back at week ten, Uh, if you had the Bills plus two and a half, you end up winning. If you have the Cardinals minus two and a half, you end up losing. The two is a push and the reason for the push here is that when the touchdown was scored with just two ticks of the clock left and the Cardinals go up thirty two to thirty, Cliff Kingsbury and staff decided, Uh, we're not going to kick an extra point. We are going to line up in a two point conversion formation and we're just gonna take a knee. And that is a genius move. I know that it hurts some gamblers and it and it harm and it and it helped others. But the only way with two seconds left on the clock that you can get beat in that situation, or you can get and you can get beat is if they block the kick, return it for two points and then beat you in overtime. So just take the knee. I totally get that move. Now. There wasn't notion in my head that Kingsbury just looked into and I was like, does he think this is a time down? Like there's a little of that in my head. But I'm gonna give him a benefit of the doubt. I think he knew what he was doing, So that one I endorse. We'll get to the Cleveland Brown ones later because I have Cleveland Brown's one later because I have a different opinion on that. But Kyler Murray twenty two of thirty two for two forty five, one touchdown, one pick, sack three times, eleven carries for sixty one yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Uh, he's in the m v P conversation everybody. He's gotta be first quarterback with a touchdown in five straight games since nineteen fifty six. Hopkins ends up seven for a touchdown, rake four hundred fifty three total yards for the Cardinals and victory. And then there's Seattle, And I don't think Russell Wilson is really in the m v p conversation anymore. Uh, the The Seahawks have lost three of four s and starting five and oh Wilson was twenty three thirty eight for two forty nine but no touchdowns, two picks. He was sacked six times. He was eight for sixty on the ground. The Seahawks have ten turnovers in their last four games, including three yesterday. The third was a fumble lost by Wilson. They were minus two in turnovers in their loss yesterday to the Rams to sixteen. It was a bad spot for the Seahawks, though the Rams had a couple of weeks. If Sean McVeigh couldn't have schemed two weeks to beat that defense, I'm not sure if we could call him a genius anymore. That was my buddy Matt Brown's comment. I agree with that, but in the end, for me, Russell Wilson another really bad pick yesterday, that one at the end of the second quarter when they were down seven and he could have run for the first down, he threw it in the end zone. It was picked just really uncharacteristic plays. But it's Arizona at Seattle on a short weekend. So getting finally to the guests, I think it's Seattle not quite a field goal. I'd say Seattle minus two and a half. Gilly, what's our t shirts gonna come out? Your number better? Uh? It's it's three with juice on the favorite. And I even see one three and ALP with juice on the dog. My numbers come to pick them. However, and this is purely anecdote. I wish I shouldn't been keeping track of this for years. In a shortened weekend like this, I do. I prefer a veteran team. I think home field might mean a little something. And I'm gonna give you to that in a second. Uh, you know, I like a veteran team, a veteran quarterback, you know. And I was I'm going to be the first to admit I was very late to the Murray party. He's really good and I had my serious doubts about him, but this kid's good. I however, like I said, he's still you know, young quarterback. I still don't like their coach. I don't know if you looked into that, uh non extra point or not, but that that was another thing that really helped the books. By the way, but you know, Russell Wilson not playing very good ball. So I have these two teams equal, I would not go to three, which is really what it is, is three and juice. I'm gonna open three flat and they're gonna probably bet me. See I mean, I'm sure they'll bet me settle, uh, which I'm certainly okay with. But like I said, even though I made power rating wise make the game pick on, I give Seattle a little bit of a nod because of you know, the coach and the quarterback. And when it comes to Russell Wilson, Uh, they're really asking a lot of him. And yesterday what was that Jalen Ramsey was a cornerback really shut down DK met gap and I think when you get in that situation now, not too many guys are gonna be able to do that, by the way, but they're really asking Wilson to do an awful lot. And uh, it came back to haunt him yesterday, and it's maybe come back to haunt him a couple of times in the last couple of weeks because Wilson has not looked at good. You know, for years, I've been saying I hate rooting against this guy, but yesterday, you know, we kind of needed to beat him and we did. Um, you know, but he's not playing real well right now. I got his qbready from yesterday thirty one point one. That's one of the lowest I remember how to him because you know, I love the guy. I talked about him altiple time. He's terrific. But uh, you know, I'm gonna open three. I think they'll lay it to me. Like I said, I'm fine with that, but I do kind of like your number better. To be honest with you, but you got helped by that nal down and I'm sure you got healthy by the other one that's coming up in in the Cleveland game? What is it? What is next Sunday? Speaking of Cleveland, Billy yeat Cleveland. By the way, how great was the five early game six late games thing yesterday? Great? H so good? What is it this coming week? Are we reverting back to the normal? Yeah? Seven, seven and four. We're getting there. We're getting there. That was a great, a great weekend where college football cooperated in terms of not being a really sexy schedule, having fifteen postponements or cancelation, and then Dustin Johnson having the decency to run away with the masters. So there wasn't much to watch. They either in the NFL accommodating it with five early games and five that weren't of the sexiest matchups. Right, all the all the good ones were in the afternoon. Just from a fan standpoint, what was the game with Cleveland again? Who was it? Cleveland? Oh? Boy? Philly? The NFC East leading Philadelphia Eagles now at three five and one, they lose to the Giants. A lot of money came in on the Eagles. Eagles ended up as a four and a half point closing favorite. They lose twenty seven to seventeen, broken eight game winning streak against the Giants. They Giants hadn't beaten them to twenty six. Carson Wentz thirty seven, two oh eight, no touchdowns, no picks, and there's the sacks, three sacks man as he gets sacked all out this year oh for nine on third down? The Eagles were oh for nine on third down at zero for nine, one for three on four. First game for the Eagles franchise since two thousand four without a third down conversion. Think about that, sixteen years they've gone without getting a third down conversion. They had eleven penalties for seventy four yards and then in one of these I mean, this is really the theme of yesterday Analytics gone bad. Whence and the Eagles go for two down twenty one to seventeen in the third quarter. But could we please can we please stop with this someone? I mean, you know, it's it's so funny how we can anything can be justified. But in that moment, you know, because you can, you can take it to you know, chess place plays forward and be like, well yeah, but if then if they end up with the field goal and blah blah blah, you'll still be you know, no, no, no, no, no, just cut it to three. What are we doing here? It's a third quarter, for God's sakes. So they don't get it, by the way, not that it would have mattered perhaps in the end, but it's just you know, they went for two earlier. Okay, that cut it to uh, you know, to a three point game, but then on this one, you're not gonna go for a one to cut it to a three point game. I I don't understand anymore. Um So Philly loses, but they still lead the NFC East at three five and one, again a division that I say to folks, why would you want to win this and have a draft pick at least nine or ten picks worse than you would if you don't. UM. Then there's the Browns. The Browns beat the Texans. Uh and they and they beat them by the final score of ten to seven. And uh Baker Mayfield was twelve twenty one thirty two, no touchdowns, no picks, sacked on two yards passing. They got it done on the ground, as they should have in that weather. Uh. Nick Chubb nineteen for one and a touchdown Kareem Hunt nineteen for one oh four. But obviously the headline of this game is it's ten to seven and Chub on a scamper from the brown zoned forty hard line full sprint. Instead of going the full sixty, he goes fifty nine and makes a hard left out of bounds at the one in the clear with under a minute left. So Cleveland minus three ends up pushing Cleveland minus three and a half is a loss. Houston plus three and a half is a win. They kneeled twice after that to preserve the ten to seven win. Now, unlike the Kingsbury play, let me just say this, this is like the Todd Gurley thing against the Packers a few years back or a couple of years ago, I don't even remember now, a couple of years ago, where in the case of Girley with the Packers, if Gurley goes into the end zone and they kick the extra point, it's still a nine point lead. I think with less than two minutes or less than it was. It was definitely less than two minutes against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Okay, it's Aaron Rodgers. There might be a little time on the clock where he could do something. Maybe you could make the case or that. Even though it's two scores, I still have my doubts this one yesterday. You are essentially turning a nine nine point nine percent win probability into a hundred percent. I get it, it's a percent. Okay, I'm not gonna go nuts, But what are we doing? Really? What are these games? Are tough enough to beat betting normally, and he goes out of bounds like that, and you're just like, okay, wow, So this makes NFL. This makes betting on the NFL even harder now that guys have these ideas in their head, Like, Okay, everybody's telling me I should go out of hounds. By the way, that's what Chuck claimed. Here's here's Dave Purdham in at ESPN dot com. He said that at William Hill of the money bet on the point spread was on Cleveland, accorded data reported by the bookmaker an hour before kickoff. Jeff Stone back over at bet MGM and Nevada Texans covering the spread produced amid six figure swing in favor of the House and a collective moan from the crowded betters at the Mirage uh Draft Kings reported taking significantly more money on the Browns and the Texans. Action on Cleveland resulted in what Draft King sports book director Johnny Vello characterized as quote a pretty sizeable swing unquote Johnny's never committed all that stuff. ESPNS win probability metric showed Cleveland had a greater than ninety nine percent chance of winning whether Chubb scored or not at that point, and Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski said he wouldn't have gotten mad at Chub had he scored, but that he had gave Chubb the team's code phrase no Moss, instructing him to go down after a first doubt and not score by the way. No moss, of course, made famous by Roberto Duran Heads Hands of Stone Manostpira in his UH rematch with Ray Leonard when Ray Leonard mugged him, Bolo punched him eighth round t k O in their rematch. Sorry, m Ray Leonard fan, I was getting excited. Yes, that's I got carried away. Sorry, I'm sorry, pardon me. So so what was the game anyway? So let's get back Philadelphia Cleveland. Let's say super It gets worth noting that that game went down, was was bent down from fifty four to forty five point five and still went way under, still went away on to Cleveland windy games just two weeks in a row and didn't and didn't compare at all to the weather the in the in New England last night, which was a monsoon. I'll say Cleveland minus three. But Man, these decisions that that some teams are making at the ends of games, chrissie, they seem, how can I put this, almost like they're trying to they're trying to be smarter, that they're trying to do what they think is smart, not actually knowing what they're doing. Uh, you know, I'm like you're reading too many books. You know, I'm a big reader. But you know, let's draw the line at some point. You know, not everything of the conspiracy on everything you do is analytically correct. And I would say that about silly. Uh. Once again, Gilly, here we go with the same same. I like your number better. Um My power rings come to two. I'm really I'm not enamored with Cleveland, and a lot of it is Baker Mayfield. I hate to say, uh, but I see three and a half juice on the dog, three juice on the favorite. You know, either way you go here, that's the way they're gonna bet you. I'm gonna open three and definitely take a bet. Um. You know not that I really like Philly perfect. I have a number here that I want to quote from Paul heimbi Kinti's and he goes on Twitter, Paul Hembo h g m bo. Paul Hembo on Twitter. He's a producer at ESPN, and he and I have exchanged a couple of direct messages on Twitter. Anyway, Carson Wentz has six games with a q b R under fifty, leads the NFL. I mean, we've got to stop making excuses for this guy. And I know we're talking about injuries and all that other stuff. Baker Mayfield has four, you know, so you know, but Wentz is clearly the favorite. There's Cup one of the guys. We might get to a couple of them later on. I want to go to go hold this right now, but go to go to excuse me. Paul him Bi Keatons Paul Himbow on Twitter. It's a great fall, a lot of a lot of great little staffs. A little tidbit so you might not stick up one. But like I said, I'm not crazy but stilly either. My numbers come to two, I'm gonna open three and I'll probably lay it to me. But it's one of those. If I open three and a half, they take it. If I open three, they're gonna lay it. I'm gonna open three, definitely take the bed because they just think it's gonna be a tight game. I'm not crazy about the way Cleveland's playing either myself. So yeah, for sure. And by the way, Eagles one and a half game lead still in the NFC ET so they can still absorb, you know, some of this, And and there was that prop over there at was it was the DraftKings that that they had the NFC East winner. They had this up early in the season. I'm not sure if it's still it. There seven and a half wins for the NFC East winner and the under was was plus money, and the plus money came down. But man, right now, to think team could get to eight wins like Philly would have to go five and to the rest of the way, that ain't happening. There's no way the Giants have to go Giants have to go six and one? Is that right now? They're playing some good football. They ain't going six and one. I got news for you. No, Yeah, Giants would have to go six and one. Yeah, they'd have to go to go eight and eight. They'd have to go six and one. Um, and then uh, and then you take a team like what is it, so they're the Giants are three and seven? No, pardon me, they'd have to go five and one. Pardon me. Giants would have to go five and one. Giants have a bye this week. Yeah, and they're there's seven and three against the spread, they're surprisingly good against. Yeah, they ain't going five one. Yeah. And then Dallas and Washington would both have to go six and one. Good luck to you. Yeah, not good? All right, we'll come back more guessing lines is all broad skill, Alexander. It's Chris Andrews, the sports book director here at the South Point Hotel Casino. Chrissie, what's next on Sunday morning? Another pretty good one, Atlanta at New Orleans. But we have some question marks for New Orleans of course. Yeah, so this will have to be if Drew Brees plays line or if he doesn't line breeze yesterday and I go ahead, I'm sorry. I was just gonna interrupted and say I see no lines on this game or the next one either. Save a little time with some of these. Alright, Well, Atlanta's off of Bie, so we don't have anything to say about the three and six Falcons. H New Orleans does beat the Niners yesterday. They do cover. Uh they cover to thirteen was the final score was a ten or nine and a half point closing number. They covered largely because they got two muffed punts from the Niners. So good yeah. Um, but they do get the cover, but largely because of those breezes. By the way, before he went out, actually after he went out, He's here's the thing. He got hurt and stayed in the game for the rest of the first half, so I can't really say before he got hurt. Breeze was eight of thirteen in the end for seventy six yards, one touchdown, note picks. He was not sacked, but the play on which he was heard uh, he absorbed a big hit that led to a personal foul penalty on Contavias Street with eight minutes twenty seconds remaining in the second quarter. Breeze has missed only six games because of injury in his twenty year NFL career, five of them in twenty nineteen because of a torn thumb ligament. People will remember, I didn't even think that was a personal foul. I thought that was an off terrible call, But apparently I did everything he could to not h rough the passer and got called for a horrible call. He got flagged for planned football. Chris flagged for planned football. Jamis came in. He was six of ten for sixty three, no touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked twice. It was all Alvin Camaro on offense. Eight of fifteen on the ground for two touchdowns, seven of eighty three through the air, receiving that is for a touchdown as well three touchdowns for Camara. But the Saints were one of ten on third down, they were one of one on four. They only had two hundred thirty seven total yards, but plus two in turnovers, and and that's the ball game right there. The turnovers held the Niners to forty nine yards rushing. Uh So, if it's breeze, I would say it's close to a touchdown. I would say minus six. If it's not breeze, it'll be significantly lower than that, probably a field goal. But you said there's no line, so I don't know. Well, I saw some look aheadlines were looking like about six and a half seven, you know, with breeze healthy, I personally like a lower. I'm thinking like a five myself. I think Atlanta is really playing well. Raheem Morris. You know, I don't think he was very good at a Tampa coach. He had his moments where he was, but you know, maybe he learned some things and you know the years in between, because he's got this team playing really well. And Atlanta was one of those teams out you know, they have talent and they there was just something missing. And maybe Morris is hitting the right buttons, but they're playing well. So I mean to me, like I said, I have a number of five. And while we're on the subject, because I think people are putting home field advantage, I got a few quotes in here that I want to make and I want to credit them properly. Uh. Andrew Siciliano, the NFL Network said, straight up, going into this weekend, home teams were six sixty seven and one. Straight up. Now they did have they were seven four and two, or that they were eleven and two yesterday, but they were favored in nine games, so that's gonna skew things a little bit. But even including yesterday's play, see this straight up winners, reported Dave Tooley, You know from vs In going into this weekend, home teams were seventy and two against the spread and including yesterday, seventy four and four. So I think people that are adding home field advantage. It's a mistake that one war from a visa and guy. Yeah, yeah, it's just from Jeff Vogel. Uh. And he posted this, I believe on Friday, Jeff Vogel vsaan guy great follow on Twitter. This is quoting Jeff in these win at Tennessee last night pushed the full season scoreboard differential to plus nineteen for visitors through a hundred and thirty four games. Accounting OT games is zero to keep everything at sixty minutes. Bloomfield advantage, it puts that quotes right now is minus zero point one four points per game. Media result is still a zero, and that's which would be an OT game. That was so that's quoting Jeff, Sorry, go ahead. That was probably predictable. We've seen home field, um, you know, without the fans and other sports act the same way. Well, it was. It was predictable in the sense when when whatever outfit put out the whole grid of games to all two hundred and two fifty six is at NFL games in the lines way back when in the middle of the spring, when you did the crunching of the numbers, it was only one and a half even then, and that was already sort of allowing for the fact that it might be nothing. Now, what Chrissy saying is it's nothing at all. Come back, Chris, because I don't know if you finish your thought. Well, we'll finish the thought on that coming back guessing lines right here Week eleven on a numbers game at Visa the sports betting Networks. Tonight's game is between the Bears and the Vikings Bears three point home dogs. Yeah, I will too. Yeah, it feels bears ish to me. Certainly. The Bears feel like a good teaser leg as well. You can stop Dalvin Cook, which the Bears appeared to be built to do, beat us kirk Cousins in prime time. Yeah, a lot of people thrown around the Kirk Cousins prime time stat or Monday night football stad where's overdone? Um? Yeah, I think it sets up nicely for the Bears. Let's take a let the little tweets here. We get tweets at beating the book real quick, Fodi Bhura. No better way to start work Monday morning. Thank you Gilling, Chris, thank you for listening. Great Monday morning tradition. Tim Johnson, I think the players were just ready to get the game came over with in Cleveland yesterday, especially after the weather they had to deal with Chubb scores, that game probably takes another five to ten minutes. You know what, Tim, You might be right even though they're saying that was their plan, maybe that was behind their plan too. A little bit of that. Let's get out of here. Um nemesis enforcer. Maybe it's a Georgia thing, Chubb and Gurley not scoring at the wrong moment with players in analytics glide. You're telling me, all right, Chrissy, did you did you finish the home field advantage thought? Because I think it's a great one. I just want to throw in one more thing. Ed Fang, who really smart guy. I think it's been on DESA a couple of times. I've done his podcast. Yeah, real smart, smart guy coming into this year. And I don't know how long it was. It was just last year, you know, it was a couple of years involved. He said. Home field advantage wors worth one point seven points. So this standard three that we're giving is just too much. And like I said, this year, I'm making my numbers with no home field advantage. Certain cases you give it to. You said, I like the Seahawks with a little home field advantage this week on a short week, and I think that means a little something, But ordinarily I think home field essentially needs not All right, let's move on Sunday morning. Okay, this one, there's no numbers whatsoever. Detroit and Carolina. We've got question marks with both quarterbacks, both starting quarterbacks, although from what I hear both are pretty likely to play. But no numbers whatsoever that I see. Yeah, I have in my notes. I have Bridgewater hurt question mark. That wasn't even sure myself at the end of that game. Uh, Carolina, it's Detroit at Carolina. Let's start with the visiting Detroit Lions. Detroit gives up a twenty one lead to Washington only to win it on a fifty nine yard or with no time left, thanks in part and in big part to a Chase Young horrific roughing the passer on Stafford well after the whistle, just brutal, and Prater sinks the fifty nine yard or to beat the Washington football team. Stafford thirty three for two seventy six, three touchdowns note picks he sacked once DeAndre Swift the coming out party of DeAndre Swift. Uh, seemingly more and more every week. Sixteen carries for eighty one yards, five catches for sixty eight to touchdown Marvin Jones eight for ninety six in a touchdown, and Carolina, Uh, they lose to Tampa Bay played with the Bucks for for a half of this game, and then the Bucks just ran away with it. And I do mean run Ronald Jones the second with a ninety eight yard or to the house the big play Bridge Bridgewater yesterday, eighteen of twenty four for one thirty six. I think about that, eighteen for one thirty six. Uh two touchdowns where to pick He was sacked once DJ Moore four for ninety six in a touchdown, but they were one of nine on third down. They only had a hundred and eighties seven total yards defense set him up at least once in that ballgame. They were out first down by the Bucks thirty to thirteen. They were out gained five forty four to one eighties seven. I don't think I remember a bigger difference in yards in a game this year. Four yards geez two ten to sixty five on the ground. Yeah, that's ridiculous right time of possession, oh five. So there's no line. If they're if they're both playing, I would think Caroline is a favorite, and I would say Carolina a little bit more in the field, but I'd say Carolina mine is four. If they do. I've got Carolina, mine is three if they do. That's my number again, no home field advantage, no anything, and McCaffrey and McCaffrey might play too, right, Yeah, I was looking at a Tampa New Orleans and excuse it, he's going off on a little bit of a tangent. Yeah, I'm looking here at New Orleans the week before. Oh, okay, Tampa the week before. I'm sorry, Tampa. I mean such an aberration for how poorly they played, you know, uh, and then had a fantastic game yesterday. Who really played unbelievably well. So it just shows you how crazy this NFL is from week to week. So about Tampa looked great yesterday and looked absolutely horrible the week before. So uh, you know, but Caroline, I though I've played okay and I would have the three over Detroit if both quarterbacks are healthy. Let's do another one. Let's stink another one here before the break. New England at Houston, New England at Houston, New England with the outright winner last night in the monsoon in Foxborough. Um, go back to my college days in Boston. I'm like, why why would people live in this weather? It's horrific. I love you Boston though, It's a great place to go. To school. It was just a monsoon. New England gets it done, beats Baltimore to seventeen, does so as six and a half point closing dogs. Their consensus cam was thirteen of seventeen for one eighteen touchdown. Noe Pacy was sacked once. Jacoby Meyers, the law firm of Jacoby Myers for all your personal injury needs one of one as a as a passer for twenty four yards of a touch Daddy also caught five for fifty nine. Uh. Damian Harris twenty two for one one on the ground. That was the key. Uh. New England's four and five. Good for Bill Belichick and the Patriot. It's there at Houston. Houston, as we mentioned, loses in bad weather to Cleveland. DeShawn was one sixty three one touchdown. Note picks. He was sacked twice. He takes a lot of sacks twice in this one. Two three total yards was all Houston and Muster. I'll say, um, I'll say New England minus two and a half at Houston Gilley. That's exactly my number, New England and half. Unfortunately, well unfortunately or unfortunately that's not the number I see out there. So once again, I like your number better. I see it anywhere from Pick to the Texans as much as a one and a half point favorite. Uh you know again, I'm gonna open Yeah. I know Texans have just gone south and the Romeo Cornell by all accounts a wonderful, wonderful human being, but he's not doing a great job coaching this team. And I heard they're even thinking about keeping him for next year. I don't know about that. Well, probably the same guy that traded DeAndre Hopkins is making that decision. So but I made New England two and a half. That's what my numbers came to. And again I think people are putting in our home gold advantage that should not exist. I'm gonna open Pick again just because I see it at the highest Houston one and a half, So I expect him that that Houston on me, which is just funny. Wow. So Cleveland Houston was the one that I thought was the most perplexing last week, and if Chubb doesn't go out of bounds, that one works. And here's New England Houston. So clearly it's the Texans that me and the market just don't see eyed eye on, Like I just don't get it with the Texans. What am I missing anything? Nothing? The Patriots are going to win that game. There it is. You don't even have to watch. We'll come back more more guessing lines coming back on the numbers game at Visa, these sports betting that where let's get through a couple more of these games here on Sunday. Okay, listen before we go further. I don't know if people are listening to our show or cooler heads are prevailing, But the Patriots are going to the favorite right now? Okay, okay, well but if you got if you even see pick them, I would say better now because they're going New England is going to the favorite. They're going to the favorite. Okay, so I'm gonna certainly open one and if I feel one and a half opening that because even the pickums are starting to disappear right now. Well we we would love to think that's based on our discussion here before the break um, but but I'm saying that does it doesn't like, how does it even come out the other way? That's nuts to me, Like, I just don't understand what the deal is with the Texans. I thought it was a miss price number last week against yesterday against the Okay, so it's it's a pick them so again, you can't bet the Patriots on a tease, on a perfect tease anymore. If you could at one and a half or whatever it was on the Texans spots, but man, that would have been sweet. Um. Oh, here's a Joe Pete as a Joe Pete tweet. You want to just throw up real quick about the Uh, how incredible is Bernard Longer making the cut at the Masters. Longer has competed in a major against Gene Saraz in board and able get Diegos born two thousand two opponents born a hundred years apart Sarahs and played his last major at the seventy six Open Championship, Langer's first. Yeah, Bernard Linger, good for him? Uh, getting it done, making the cut, the oldest player to ever make a cut at Augusta. All right, um, alright, cooler heads prevailing, as you're saying on New England at Houston. That one made no sense to me. What's next? Yeah? The boards lighting up? Anyway, Let's move on Steelers at the Jaguars. We're drunk with power right now, Chrissy, aren't we? Uh? Steelers Steelers from nine and oh boy boy, Cincinnati was the squarest of square dogs yesterday. Felt like I didn't know one person, I said on Primetime Action Friday, and I go, you know what scares me about this game? I don't know one person who likes the Steelers against the number. And that's assuming Big Ben came back, and he did. Got the negatives he needed after being on the COVID nineteen reserve list from tracing Big Ben yesterday against the Bengals in the UH Steelers thirty six to ten win as six and a half point favorites, he was twenty seven and forty six for three thirty three, four touchdowns, no picks, UH, no sacks. Johnson six six for one sixteen that's Deante six for one, sixteen for touchdown, ju June nine for seventy seven in touchdown, Claypool four for fifty six, two touchdowns. Steelers only needed forty four rushing yards, but they were plus two and turnovers that helps. And they're at Jacksonville, Jacksonville. Get all got all of us who or gave all of us who had the Packers and survivor a big scare. Jake Luton eighteen for thirty five one sixty nine, one touchdown, one pick. He was sacked three times, James Robinson again filling up the statute twenty three for one O nine only two hundred sixty total yards of offense for Jacksonville. They were helped by a Keelan cole ninety one yard punt return for a touchdown. Yesterday, I'll say Pittsburgh, Wow. I mean, this is gonna be a big survivor pick for anybody who has Pittsburgh left Pittsburgh minus. You know again, home field doesn't mean anything, but I get a feeling in these lines there in somehow incorporated. So I'll say it's only in quote it's Pittsburgh minus ten. Yeah, it's only ten. My, Uh, well, here's a line of and well it was a little later in the day. I'm sure a couple of guys who have a drinking game going diminishing returns. Uh. My power ratings come to sixteen on this game, because, uh, I think the Jaguars probably as bad as we thought they were gonna be at the beginning of a year. And Luton, he I mean he played okay, I mean for a guy that didn't get drafted, you know, etcetera, etcetera. But you know, I think it's just Green Bay was just nod into that game yesterday. They were just you know, walking through it. May Mike power rates come to sixteen. I see it pretty much a universal pen. You know. I think that's actually okay because you know, I know Pittsburgh could sleep walk through some of these games too, just like Green Bay did yesterday, and that's probably what I would expect them to do this Sunday. You know, they got big games coming up, including you know, the following following week against against the Ravens, so they're not going to show everything. So ten, I think it's a fine number, even though my numbers come a lot higher. Chris, I have a question for you. Why do you think Big Ben is not getting any conversation in the m v P race. It has nothing to do with you and get a large future on Ben Roethlisberger to win the MVP. Serious Jason's asking questions. I think he's starting to now, you know now that I mean because everybody, like two or three weeks ago, we just had Russell Wilson has been like probably a one to five favorite, you know, I mean, everybody just assumed he was going to get it, but now it's opened way up and I think people are opening their eyes to you know, I mean, Ben needs weapons, but so does every quarterback, you know. I mean you look with what my Homes has a casey um, But yeah he listen, he's got some weapons back that they didn't have it all last year in the brief time that he played. But yeah, I think he'll be in the conversation from here on, so and away, Jason, let me see what I could do to enhance your position. We're in free seeing him being in the conversation by having the conversation. So, yeah, that is that what you're doing. Well, Well, we influenced the Patriot Line universally quickly. We could do something with big bands, I will say with the m v P race though, Patrick Mahomes is Lebron right, Like, I think we'll get to the point with Patrick Mahomes where you could give it to him every year. Um, with Lebron, that's certainly the thing, and they just decide, well, we'll give it to this guy this year, We'll give it to that guy. But he's always in the conversation. You can always make a case for him. I don't think Mahomes has enough in his on his bookcase yet to be there. But I think we'll get there with him. But this feels to me now that Russell Wilson has sort of abdicated, you know, uh, the throne here, the leader in the clubhouse. If I can mix all kinds of metaphors, I kind of think it's Mahomes. Who's next. Kyler Murray in the conversation before. Yeah, but they they're not gonna win their division and probably and they might, they're not going to have as good of a season as the Steelers are likely or the Chiefs really, Kyler Murray, there's six and three, they're they're tied for the top of the division. You never know. Rogers is in the conversation for sure. Oh yeah, Rogers quietly doing his thing. Yeah, he's a yeah, he's told Brady might get a little bit. Brady might get some acknowledgement, you know, you never know. Yeah, if you throw out, if you throw out games against New Orleans, what is it a game against Orlis? Tom Brady twenty one touchdowns in two picks. That's pretty I'm told that's good. It's impressive. Forty three years old, or thirty three years old thirty ninety nine said that, uh, forty three doing pretty good. Should we know we probably shouldn't squeeze in one. Well, let's see what's the next game here, Chris good one green Bay at Indianapolis. Oh yeah, we don't have enough time to do this, but it is seven and two green Bay against six and three Indianapolis Rogers. In that game against Jacksonville, twenty four of thirty four for three twenty five, two touchdowns. One Piggy was sacked once. Valdes Scantling Marques Valdes Scantling was a big target four for one forty nine and a touchdown, big seventy eight yard touchdown in that game against Jacksonville yesterday in green Bay's twenty four to twenty win, not even coming close to covering the fourteen points. And like I said, for survivor players like myself who had them sweat, and then there's Indianapolis, they'll be on extra rest. Remember they doubled up Tennessee on Thursday night where Philip Rivers was twenty nine of thirty nine for three oh eight one touchdown. Note Pixie was sacked once. Naim Hines two touchdowns, one on the ground, one through the air, four thirty total yards of offense, and that strange game Thursday night were Indianapolis felt like Tennessee just stopped playing in the second half. And we went through the whole dissertation Friday about how Philip Rivers won't sneak the football and yet they still want it that way. I'll say Indianapolis, but not quite by three, by two and a half. We'll get Chrissie's response. Next Guessing lines Week eleven. Right here in a numbers game at Visa the Sports Betting Network. Our number two of the numbers game right here at Visa the Sports Betty Network. Serious except channel two or four Visa dot Com. The Visa have Phobos, Legua Gay plus it is Gill Alexander. Jason Khan is here as well, asking questions through the prism of his bets, just to try to manifest Big Ben too. H m v P. I don't know if it's gonna happen, but not terrible by the way. I just think he should be in the conversation. That's all all right. I mean his team is undefeated nine and oh you think they can get there? Just have him in the conversation. I don't think they'll be undefeated. Undefeated, but if he goes sixteen and no, that would help your cause, right for sure. So that's what you should be rooting for. Okay, I'm rooting for that. Okay, that's that's you're in. That's you're in. We've identified you're in. Uh. It's all about guessing lines for week eleven and trying to extract value from the exercise of guessing lines on Chris Andrews and I Chrissie Mysa. We've we've already decided that we moved to New England Houston line moments ago. That's what we're going with, Chris. Green Bay in Indianapolis is an early game still Sunday. No, that got moved to the afternoon. It's in the ear that moved to the ano. Yeah, because that's a game between division the leaders right there, Indianapolis a co leader with Tennessee in the an f C South. I'll say, given given the backdrop of what I just mentioned before, but I'll say Indianapolis minus two and a half, you're a shade high. It's one and a half and two. Uh, my numbers still come to Green Bay one. Um, you know, listen, Indianapolis is playing much better in the last couple of weeks, and I still have my questions about them as a team and Rivers specifically. I quoted himbo before talking about Whence having six games under under fifty for a q BR, that's you know, tops in the league. But uh, well, Drew Lock will get to him a little bit from Denver second. But there's a bunch with four Rivers is amongst. I mean, he plays really well and he had a great game. I thought he and the team looked fantastic Thursday night. But I'm not letting one game, you know, get ahold of me that much. Um, you know, they aren't playing better as a team. But I still think I like green Baby going there and win this game. I make them a very slight thing that I make a one. I'd like to see I see it one and a half and two. I think I'll open a one and a half. Yeah, they might get me the colt if I see it dropping on then a drop because I do. I think Green Bay should be a very very slight favorite this game. Yeah, and I went through it Friday eight circumstances against the Titans, where Philip Rivers could have snuck the football, they chose not to do it. The eighth time was was a was a pinch sneak from Jacoby Brissette. So it was sort of like Philip Rivers finally coming out and uh and saying, uh, yeah, I don't do this, and maybe it's in my contract. I'm just not letting you guys know. Um, but I just think that that is a competitive disadvantage. It was for the Chargers all those years. It is for the Cults in those moments. Those are high leverage situations. For those wondering why do you keep harping on the sneak thing, because those are high leverage situations in football games, and when you have money on these, It's the equivalent again of runners in scoring position in baseball. It's as if when runners on second and third, batter goes, yeah, I can't do this. You're gonna have to sub me out right here. Somebody else gotta come in and do this for me. It's just it's the weirdest thing, and it was not enough has been made of it throughout his career, and it's rearing its head and I think it will wear its head in a very key situation for the Colts moving forward. Just file that away. So you've got it as Colts minus one and a half. Is that what you said? You know my question? And somebody brought this up on squitter. I can't remember what. How did Tennessee not know that that was gonna be a sneak when they brought it and when they brought into Kobe, I mean I didn't even realize he was in there by a coach just supposed to understand that, you know. Geez, yeah, you would have thought talk about telegraphing. Yeah, alright, we're halfway through. What's the next? Cincinnati at your Washington football team? Washington still alive the NFC's despite despite their loss to Detroit yesterday and Cincinnati again got housed by the Steelers. Cincinnati's two six and one, Washington is two and seven. So Washington is what that makes them? A game and a half back in the NFC East. Is that what it comes out to? Yeah? Game and a half back? Um yeah um. Joe Burrow yesterday twenty one of forty against the Steelers for two thirteen, one touchdown note picks. He was sacked four times. Tee Higgins is his dude, though, that's his target. Seven for one, fifteen and touch down. The Bengals were oh for thirteen on third downs, two for three on four, two for three on four. Uh. They were minus two in turnovers. Were the Bengals. They're oh seventeen and one in their last eighteen road games. There four twenty and one under Zach Taylor. Should I stop because I could go on and on all day with these, But by the way, they're ridiculous on fourth downs this year, like fourteen of sixteen. Skill Alexander, It's Chrissie Andrews. This is a numbers game right here on Visa, the sports spending Network, serious XM, channel two oh four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app food boastling a game plus. But Cincinnati oh fort zero for thirteen on third downs against the Steelers yesterday. Uh. And then there's Washington. Alex Smith thirty eight for fifty five and three ninety no touchdowns, no picks, sacked twice. Now, I said this before the season even started. I said, if Alex Smith takes even one snap and throws one forward pass, and I said, I don't care if he throws it into the dirt, He's your comeback player of the year. Well, barring a Kirk Cousins or Nick Foles explosion tonight, he will have thrown for the most yards in the NFL this weekend, three ninety. He is your comeback player of the year. End. The discussion with the odds were on him leading the weekend past. Oh man, I'm terrified every time he backs up to Bess. You're not alone. Yeah, it's just it's just not fun to watch. Terry mcclorin always fills up stat sheets. Seven for nine, Antonio Gibson with two fourth quarter touchdowns fo six total yards for Washington. Again. They made up a twenty one point deficit in this game, only to lose at the end on a Matt Prator fifty nine yard or to win it after Washington tied it up at twenty four apiece. Three plays was all it took to get to Prater's fifty nine yard attempt, largely because of Chase Young's horrific roughing the passer penalty. I'll take Chase Young every day, but man, that was bad. Cincinnatia Washington, Real barn Burner Washington. I mean, I'll split the difference between a pick him and the three, and I'll just say one and a half to be lazy. It's one or one and a half. I like Washington one little better. In fact, my numbers have sent to a very very slight favorite. I'm not sure that's actually correct. A couple of things that really probably should have alerted us before the game. In the Cincinnati game, Mike Tomlan and I didn't hear this toy after the game, but he said, you know, we wanted to introduce Joe Brown paraphrasing that we wanted to introduce Joe Burrows to the Pittsburgh Steelers and show him what he has to look forward to twice a year for the rest of his career. So that team was a little focused. I would say, you know, uh, but you know, Alex Smith played fantastic, But Jason, what's wrong with the Ben Roethlisberger comeback Player of the Year. You know he's got to be in that conversation too, I guess, but it'll go to Alex Smith. It'll go to Smith. Um, I don't have a bad anyway. Have you seen the E sixty on Alex Smith? Chris he did. It's hard to watch to watch, but it's just why he's even playing. I have no idea. Yeah, I think I gotta packed her up. You know, if I were he he's made plenty of money and then kids pack it up. Yeah, seems like a really good guy, you know, great, you know, I think that ended up having a very good career. People thought he was a bust. Ended up having a really good career. Got kaepernicked in San Francisco, played well, and then you know, got mahomes in Kansas City, a couple of playoff wins with San Francisco if I remember correctly, like before Kaepernick like he oh yeah, that great game against New Orleans. Yeah yeah, all right, Well, wishing the best, certainly do just by the way before we let our influence in the market go to our heads, at least from me perfectly. The cults are going to like a two and a half and three point favorite as we speak. I had money showing on the coal Green Bay one. So maybe it's me that my head is too big, which I guess it's too big if you ever saw it. I'm gonna open a little higher. I'm gonna see what the market fell that could. Probably I'm looking at two and a half because like there are some trees around. By the way, Christie, you're feeling better. Yes, you sound like you're feeling much better. Oh yeah, I've been negative for quite a while. But we had some other issues we had to clear up. So you know, okay, good, yeah, yeah, we got plenty more. What's next Tennessee at Baltimore. Well that's good too. So Tennessee and a co lead for the a f C South Division six and three Baltimore now six and three. Ryan Tannehill in the game this past Thursday night was only fifteen of twenty seven for one seven one touchdown. Note Pixie was sacked once. Derrick Henry was nineteen for one oh three last night Baltimore in the monsoon against the Patriots, and again they lose it out right. That got all of three survivors at a three three ten went down to three oh one in circa as I mentioned, six six on the on the Eagles, three on the Ravens. Jackson Lamar was thirty four yesterday for forty nine, two touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked twice. Eleven carries for fifty five yards. Now, um, here's the thing. There's an epidemic of bad spotting of football's too. Can I just mention this, There was one really bad spot laid in this game for New England. First of all, Baltimore got screwed a couple of times, one on the bad spot, but one that Jude on penalty on defense was so ticky. Tech Um kept a drive going for New England. But the spotting thing like this an epidemic. Did you see Miami Virginia Tech on Saturday? There was at least three occasions twice for the Canes, one for the Hokeys where nine yards were gained or it was just one yard shy of the marker two game, and the refs just casually like, yeah, my first town, and they moved the change. And I'm just like, is anybody gonna complain about this over and over and over again, Like people are betting on this stuff. Stop it. If it's nine yards, it's nine yards. They should be able to integrate technology into the spotting and make it a lot more seamless. It's like Todd Wishnev's old what he called the zigzag diagonal spotting of referees. Anyway, there's one of these in this game too. It was a total monsoon by the end of that game. It really looked like Baltimore just wanted to get the heck out of there. But Baltimore is facing ten See Tennessee with a little bit of extra rest. This is a tough one to make because I just think if I make it, if it's Baltimore three or four, everybody but will bet Baltimore. If it's Baltimore six or seven, everybody will bet the Titans. I'll just put in no man's land at five and a half and let the hate wash over me. What is this one going to be? Well? I kind of like your number better once again, I see six and six and a half. My numbers came to four and a half. Neither team is playing that great right now. A month ago this would have been a much better game. But like I said, both teams I think I hit the skids a little bit. I don't you know, I've got four and a half. You know, at first glance looked a little cheap, and and maybe it is, but the six six and a half looks a little too live. But I'm gonna open six just because there's higher numbers out there, and uh, they want to bet me Baltimore. I'm gonna make them lamey to six, which I think probably a lot of guys will Interesting. This is a rematch, of course, of the big playoff game last year, where the Titans are upset the Ravens. You get me six or seven, I may, I may take all those points. I'll take those points in Wentland. You know, if you beat me, you beat me. Tip of the cat. Interesting that is that an afternoon game? Also, these are afternoon games. Now that's stillings. Now we go to the afternoon. Okay, now we'll go to the afternoon. By the way, the point spread mattered in four games yesterday, yes number that. Well, it ended up mattering in Houston Cleveland because you know why, well, you know it's still matter. What can I tell you? Yeah, it ended up mattering in Arizona Buffalo because you know why. You know, so those are two right there. Well that's football. Well, it's football. But now see I would add add there's this extra layer again of coaches in some cases being more heavy than they used to be. So in some cases I applaud it, like again the Kingsbury thing, assuming he knew what he was doing there, way to go, he's in your head. And in the case of Chub. I'm just sort of like, do we really what we're doing? I mean, I mean, I get it goes to a hundred percent from nine point nine, but okay, and then you know the Eagles thing with the Giants. This is why I know this is all like I can't trust any of it. The fact that Doug Peterson will go for two, sometimes correctly and sometimes it's just like, what are you doing now, Doug Peterson? Like why who told you this was the right play? But I guess they know. I guess they've they figured it out that it's for them, it's the smart play. Okay. Um, not to disparage your your four times the spread matter thing, but yeah, those were two quirky endings. But it's football. And I would add that it's harder and harder every week in the NFL with stuff like that. What's next? Maybe they were watching The Queen's Gambit and they're trying to play again. Well, you know, it's funny you mentioned that. It's what do you mention that? By the way, I thought The Queen's Gambit fell off the rails like the last couple of episodes. I thought it was really good for the first five and then last couple, I was like, that wasn't great. Uh. Parlay Producing Number five texted me last night about the Baltimore New England game and he said, am I crazy? Or should New England have gone or no, should Baltimore have gone for two when they went for one? At one point? I was like, what's your thinking there? He goes, well, because then if New England kicks a field goal, they'll only be down eight as opposed to nine. I can't remember the situation. And I said to him, exactly what you just said. With the Queen's Gambit, which, for those who don't know, is this series or this this dramatic episodic series on on Netflix, and it's rooted in chess. It's it's fictional, but it's rooted in the sports chess. And I said to Jeff, I go, you're playing chess, they're playing checkers because you're already thinking two steps ahead, and I don't think these guys are thinking that. So yeah, once we start doing that, Once we start, you know, if I do two here and then they do three there, oh my god, we're gonna drive ourselves crazy. Um. Not that he was wrong, but I don't think they're thinking on that level. All right, what's next? Okay, Dallas at Minnesota and I see sub sporadic numbers unlessure if they're old ones or new ones and mayas I'm sure at this point is that Andy Dalton will be playing right now, they've got him questionable, but I think it's likely that he played this. Uh this something well, we haven't seen Minnesota. They played the Bears tonight again. Yeah, this will be really hard to make because if Minnesota crushes the Bears, this could be pretty high. It's a short week in Minnesota, though, and copies are on bye week. But I could say if the Bears crushed Minnesota, I mean this, this is not going to be you know, this will be muted anywhere between. I can't make this line. This is difficult. I'll say, just to throw it out there, I'll say Minnesota minus four and a half. But that's just me hedging both ways. I think you're way light. Yeah, it's anywhere between seven and a half and nine. Oh wait a minute, really, yeah, I got Minnesota, you know, I mean, my numbers come a lot higher than that. I hate to tell you. If it's got Minnesota playing really good football, right, now, And I say poised to make a run. And I know you guys like the Bears tonight. I don't. I definitely do not. I like Minnesota tonight. And like I said, I think this team is poised to make a run. And if they looked good tonight, I think it's going to be I think they might be looking at double digits. Wow. Now, I'm not opinion. Don't get me wrong. I'm not racing to beout the Dallas Cowboys in any situation. But I don't think Minnesota should be favorites like that over anybody. But we'll see tonight, We'll see how they play. Could change my mind. How many games of Dallas covered this year? How many games? One game? At one? They covered the Steelers that was their first game, one in eight after being so, you're saying that's not good, Chris? Is that what I'm getting from you? And Andy didn't cover that game. It was Garrett. The other guy covered the game. I forget his name, the breast Scott Yeah, oh no, no, Garrett Gilbert. Yeah, he was the guy who was great. Yeah, you're right, he's their best looking quarterbacks so far this year. Well you know why I remember that because I had Pittsburgh and Survivor then to every Survivor week is a sweat everything, and now the gauntlet begins. Good lord, how are you gonna play? Your four picks are four entries, Chrissy, you can break them up now. Yeah. I don't know what we're gonna do this week, because we've got to say some powder for Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving that a week. Yeah, that's gonna be tough. I'm looking at those games. That's gonna be tough. Like an interesting note on Garrett Gilbert when he was in Texas, Andrew Luck wanted to go to Texas, but they didn't want Andrew Luck because they were committed to Garrett Gilbert. Well, he was the guy. Garrett Gilbert was the guy. If you remember when Colt McCoy had weak arm against Alabama, do you remember what his arm just went dead? That was Garret Gilbert around. Yeah, yeah, wow, that's all. That's when last we heard from Garrett Gilbert. He was playing in the National Championship kind of things. Well, he was in the short lived Football League last playing on and he was quite good. Right Yeah, then, yeah, I wish I had known that before I had bet on the Steelers I don't know how I feel about that Minnesota Dallas line. But we'll just wait to see what happens tonight. I see where that comes out. Yeah, I'm not putting anything up there. It's okay, way too out there. Okay. Next up, another really good game, Chiefs at the Raiders. Che's at the Raiders. Chief that's that's the Sunday night game that last. Yeah, let's do that. Let's do that second to last, and it's proper lay. Okay, okay, So next up time wise, Miami at Denver. Miami wins again, push at worst on their season win total. For those of us who have Miami over six looking good, it's a free roll from here. In two against the spread. Miami Dolphins best starts since two thousand one at six and three two uh fifteen of twenty five, six, two touchdowns, no picks, and it wasn't sacked sal vonam eight six and a touchdown, two eighty one total yards for the Dolphins. A blocked hunt for the Dolphins set up their first score first and goal at the one. Three straight weeks in which the defense is either scored or set up a short field score, including I think two weeks in a row now from the one on short fields. Um so we helped out once again by the defense and the special teams in this case. And then there's Denver. Denver gets destroyed yesterday by the Raiders thirty seven to twelve as four and a half point dogs. There was no comeback from the Broncos this time to make it cosmetically acceptable or at least look acceptable. Drew Lock twenty three forty eight for two fifty seven, one touchdown and a career high four picks, sack twice. The Bronchos were minus five in turnovers, that's all you need to know, and four of those were Lock picks. Miami will be favorites. They will be favorites by more than a field goal. Say Miami minus four. I like your number way better. I hate to tell you, by the way, numbers like two and a juice on the favorite, three juice on the duck. You know, we went through this last week. You know, every wise guy in town and I'm lucky, and every one of them had the Chargers against Miami issue, and we said it on this show. And I know I said, as you have one team that finds a way to lose every week, and another team that finds a way to win every week. And I had nothing. I was that great. I was two and two on the picks that I gave last Monday, but Miami was one of I like Miami, I listen. I also like Denver yesterday to getting points, but that was another game. Every wise guy in town had Denver, every one of them. At Denver, we had we need to say we had them on both our picks. You know that I got out voted, um but you know Drew Lock is not a good quarterback fan Joe is not a good head coach. I like this number a lot higher. My power ring has come a lot higher. So I will open the three. They'll take it, they could have it, but I plan on one and need Miami in this game because they're much better, much much better than Denver. Yeah. I will happily take Miami at three and again tip of the cap if you beat me Miami. Of course, beating the Chargers by eight charges kept it within one score, but Miami gets it done six and three, season win too before the season was six, and they are live for the division. Love that coming back Guessing lines Week eleven continues right here on the numbers game at Visa These Sports Betting Network. The Guessing Lines Week eleven, brought you by bet MGM Novad It's my mich book of Christie Andrews from behind the desk here at the South Point Hotel Casino. Chrissy, where where are we? I don't know, but allow me to change the subject at least for God's sakes, Thanks Chrissy. Back to the back to Miami and Denver. I talked about Himbo earlier in the show. He had the list of guys who had qbrs under fifty once I had the most six lock is sacked. Geez. I mean, I don't know. I've been waiting for this guy to show something. Maybe it's Fanjioho. I don't like the coach. And on the other side, Brian Flores, What a fantastic coach. This guy has turned out to be. I mean, between him and Mike Gravel, finally we got two guys out of the Bill Belichick coaching tree that have shown to be very, very good coaches. And you know, I was against the move to make two of the starting quarterback, but now that I look at it, he made the right move. This guy did. Uh, He's incredible and I'm telling you there's a really well coached team. They got some talent. You know, they're not there yet, but they're getting there, and they got the right guys in place. I mean, I'm very bullish on Miami futures. I can tell you that we haven't met futures for this year to win the Super Bowl. But there's a good team, but a good coach and a good quarterback. Again, I'll say it again from before the season, only three bets I made under New England season wins over Miami and Dolphins to win the a f C East at plus eleven fifty and there game back. This could happen. And the other thing I said off was Brian Flores to win Coach of the Year at one might be the best way to play the Dolphins, and that's looking pretty damn good right now too. Dolphins were six to one to win the East a couple of weeks ago, and I got them. Then they got a tough they got a tough schedule. I mean, it's probably still not gonna happen. They need a little help. I mean, it is really up here about it. But just the fact that they're live here at this point is is fun to talk about. All right. Yeah, they're not there yet, but they're dawned close. That's a good good I love him this week against really yeah I do too. At that number at three, my goodness, and Drew luck as you said, people in Denver will tell you he's not the answer for sure. All right, he's not getting it. Let's sneak one. Next up, Jets at the Chargers, oh and nine Jets, two and seven Chargers. It's ever been a team oh and nine that's that much worse than the two and seven team because the Charges again Aaron shots from football outsiders, and they're the most consistent team every week they show up. He's right, they don't win though. Herbert thirty two yesterday and the loss to the Dolphins eight point loss for one seven, two touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked twice. He's the first rookie ever with two plus touchdown passes in six straight games. But the Charges have allowed twenty nine plus points in six straight games, all seven losses this year by one score, eight points, a fewer seventy three total yards yesterday against the Dolphins. Charges will be more than a touchdown favorite. They'll be minus seven and a half. I'll say you're a little light. My power ring has come to nine, and I see this game in everywhere between eight and nine. I'm gonna open nine, and uh, I'm sure I'm gonna have the Chargers and some of my Survival picks. But I just think looking on the sidelines and uh, Anthony Lynn looking like somebody please get me out of this. It is really true. He could be this same the hopefully could be just it's I mean, I guess, I guess we had Pittsburgh against the Jaguars that was a higher number than this, but really is can you trust the Chargers in Survivor? The Jets are sorry. The Jets are coming off their best game at the season and bye week, best game of their season and a bye week extra rest for the New York Jets. Chrissy, Oh my god, I know I'm gonna have I know, I know you don't. You got to save some of the good dames. Can't use them all, you know, That's nature of the game. The Survivor Gaunt, which begins this week, then Thanksgiving, then the following Sunday, three and a seven. We call it eight day span coming back numbers game Visa guessing lines some more for week three, Week eleven, rather next right here at Visa. All right, let's do let's away, Yes, go ahead, we have a couple of minutes. We only have two games left. Yeah, we got Let me give you a little blur. I've teased about this all year. My book that I'm writing, Okay, was gonna was meant to be and it's would and is. There was a journal from one super Bowl to the next, like a year in the life of a bookmaker. Well, needless to say, this year in the life of anybody is nowhere near what we thought it was gonna be. I've been sharing my stuff with Anthony Curtis and the Deep castleman who is his editor, and so far they're loving it. I mean, think of all this stuff that's happened, you know, first of all, Kobe Bryant's death. We forget all about that, you know. I Mean I started, like with the championship games leading into the Super Bowl, and I was just gonna keep a daily journal. You know. We had racial unrest, which unfortunately had to make it into the book. He couldn't just ignore it because of affecting sports. I tried to keep it to anything that that affected sports strictly through the eyes of a bookmaker and the world of sports and bettings and bookmaker. It's uh, this book went nowhere near where I thought I was going to go. How could you have? Yeah, like I said, when the Kobe Bryant thing happened, my first thought was wild. You know, this was a huge curveball. We've almost forgotten about that. There's been so much that's happened since then, you know, with COVID and like I said, Rachel unrest and just things going absolutely bumpers. This year really kept the journal since last year, and I think this book is going to do fairly well any working title or not yet. Uh. The working title was like a bookmaker's Season, So you know, you know, I don't know if I'm gonna stick with that or not. You know, like I said, the intention, what I planned on is nowhere near what I wound up with. We all and we all remember where we were when when we got the first text or the first news of Kobe, and yeah, for sure, and then Chris of course getting COVID himself. You know something else you could pardon me, is you getting and dealing with it, going to be in the book. I guess it's not really sports related. Deal with me. Yeah, I'm a little stuff. Have that much to deal with. It wasn't as bad as it was for other people. Wow, well we'll be in there. I think it's gonna be an interesting book. We look forward to that. CHRISY Andrews already the author of Then One Day, available at Amazon. We look forward to that book as when one year, well it's great, called it. Then one year we'll come back. We'll do the prime time games. Tell you what we like best. Hear guessing lines, Week eleven numbers, game Visa, the sports betting networks. To be clear, you like the Bears tonight, I will take the Bears in a teaser. I will not play them straight. I already have the Bears in a teaser open still, so yeah, that's gonna be where I end up. I'm not sure about the plus three, but I'm I'm quite happy with the teaser position, all right, Chris Andrews. Everybody from the South Point Hotel Casino Sports Book. Sunday Night, Chrissie Sunday A night, This great game, Kansas City at Las Vegas. The Raiders the only team to have beaten the Chiefs this year, Chiefs eight and one, coasting. I don't think it's all one big exhibition for the Chiefs to repeat. Can't help that feeling in my head. Um, Derek Carr. Yesterday and the Raiders win over the Broncos. And again it was thirty seven to twelve, five for one, fifty four, no touchdowns, no picks, wasn't sacked, just you know, casual day at the officer Derek Carr, Josh Jacob one twelve, two touchdowns. As we mentioned with the Broncos game, the Raiders were plus five and turnovers. That's all you need to know. The Raiders had five total takeaways in their first eight games, had five. Yesterday won the time of possession battle thirty five Kansas City coming off of bye, I'll say it's the Chiefs minus six and a half. Well, you're right on, um, I made the game six, so I have no but the six and a half. There was some sevens around earlier, but they're they're gone. I see a couple of sevens with juice on the dog. Um, I think seven will probably be a take for me in this game. But I think six and a half kind of makes you pause and think a little bit. I think that's a really good place to start. So I have no beef at all with the six and a half. I think that's a good number for a great, great Sunday night game. I'm proud of myself for hitting that one. Okay, Monday night the Rams at Tampa Bay. Rams beat the Seahawks yesterday they do so. Um again, perfect sort of set up for the Rams yesterday. With the bye week, Sean McVeigh had two weeks to scheme up against his defense. They hadn't Winny by a touchdown three to sixteen. Um, here's the stat for you, Sean McVeigh thirty one and oh when he leads at halftime? How about that? I saw that. That's pretty good. Here here's one I even like better. The Rams defense this year has given up a max of three points in the second halves of eight of their nine games this year. It feels like they're the most surprising unit of the years. The Rams defense. Yeah, well, they got Aaron Donald and they got Jalen Ramsey, and those are the anchors. So if you have a dominant they have a new coach this year, and well, but if you have a defensive Player of the Year, guy on the front line. It just creates havoc and a guy like Jalen Ramsey will say, come here, d K mccalf, I'm gonna I'm gonna ruin you today. Those anchors, those are good anchors to have. But three points max and eight of the nine second halves thus far this year. I think it was only Buffalo we scored a touchdown on offense of the second half thus far this year. Jared Goff yesterday thirty seven for three oh two, no touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked three times. Uh, they were nine of fifty and the Rams were on third downs one of one on four they were plus two in turnovers. Again, if you had access to the box score, no better uh you know line item two, know than turnovers because you can figure out pretty much who won every game. Not every game, because there are exceptions and we note them here on the show. But turnovers are bigger than anything. Of course, you can't predict them moving forward. That's the problem. And then Tampa Bay, as we mentioned, Tampa Bay crushes the Carolina Panthers yesterday forty six to twenty three. This was a seventeen seventeen game at the half, a twenty nine to six second half of the Bucks and Tom Brady tom thirty nine for three forty one three touchdowns, Doe Pacy we sacked once and as I mentioned earlier versus teams other than these Saints twenty one touchdowns and two picks this year. Yesterday hit eight different receivers, God Wins six for ninety two, Evans six or seventy seven and a touchdown, Antonio Brown seven of sixty nine, Gronk two for fifty one in a touchdown, on and on, and as I mentioned, Ronald Jones the second twenty three for one nine two a ninety eight yard touchdown scamper to the house. They were ten of sixty on third down, where the Bucks one of one on fourth and again, as I mentioned, probably the biggest yards difference in any game I remember this season, five forty four to one eighties seven versus the Panthers yesterday. So it's the six and three Rams the seven and three Bucks. I'll say the Bucks are favored. I'm gonna guess four and a half. Chris, You're way high. It's um three and a half. I see a couple of three and a half, the juice on the dog, I see a couple of threes juice on the favorite. In fact, it looks like the three and a halves or even disappearing as we speak. I made the game one this. I love this Rams defense. They are playing well, and Jared Goff, you know, I mean, he's not great, but he is pretty good. I think has gotten some mocks, maybe undeserved. But this defense of the Rams, I just think is, you know, I don't know if they're the best in the league. I don't know, but we mentioned they got two anchors in there that, you know, make them a very formidable opponent. I think I'm gonna open three and they're gonna I'm sure they'll probably lay it to me, but I think there's gonna be a really really tight game. And I think, uh, you know, totals seven forty seven and a half, let's see it a reasonable anymore. I think points will be at a premium. I think it's gonna be a really tight game. And I had at three and a half. I think I would definitely like to RAM. So I'm gonna open three RAMS teaser like Rams teaser like, Yeah, I think I saved my worst gifts for last. But yeah, I would, I would agree with that. And again, if the rams D can do right. If you know, there is a staff shot in my head that sees Aaron Donald wreaking havoc one year old Tim Brady, they got to make a move around and and the rams DAM might be able to They can move around for sure. Man, there's something that's the key, and it's been the key for him for years. If you can get him off his spot, he's less effective. You know, he's not my homes He's not even Roethlisberger if you get him off the spot. But they've protected him well his whole career in New England. When he's protected here at Tampa Bay has had some really good games. Will they be able to protect him against Aaron Donald. I'm not so sure. I think I like the rams a little bit in this spot. There's some good games man, Rams Bucks six and three verses seven to three on Monday night. Um, I don't really hold the Raiders in that same but at least on paper eight and one verses six and three on Sunday night, Kansas City at the Raiders Green Bay at Indianapolis is a good game as well. And he read off of buy is a thing, right. That's Andy read and he read off of buy is a thing right right. Tennessee at Baltimore is a is a good looking game on paper as well. And then that Thursday about Thursday, Yeah, that started at all Arizona at Seattle? Who along with the Rams or six and three? So when we look up and down, Chris, I'll give you honors here. What do you like the best? If you put on your betting head, Miami, that would be my top pick. I like Miami, I said, I love the coach, love the quarterback from Miami, the exact offosite for Denver, and don't like the coach a quarterback. I'm not ready to quite sell out on them yet, but I think everybody in Denver is you know, um, But I like Miami. That would be my best bet of the week for me. I think it's uh. I also like Miami. I think it's New England. Again. That was the line that was the most perplexing, although you said right afterwards it's sort of moved in our direction. What what the market's fascination is with the Houston Texans I will never understand. I guess two and a half. Chrissie said Houston was even favored in some spots, and I would say, pick them, so it's moving our way. And then the other definitely gone on one are gone New England minus one. Yeah, okay, it's coming coming our way. Um yeah, that made no sense. And uh, it feels good when you make a guess and you're like what and then it comes your way before the end of the show. And then the other one was Tennessee. I know you were saying a lot of people will take Baltimore here, but if you're giving me, you said north of six points on Tennessee against Baltimore, I'll take all those points. It's mostly six and a half, mostly six and in all right, So so I'm anself. So those are the three I like the best. New England, Miami and Tennessee at a glance. Um, but that's the point of the exercise. The point of the exercise, like the old Stardust radio show, is too within this uh conversation, try to extract value on the lines. And usually the first instinct is the best, and the rest of the week we spend just talking, talking ourselves out of it, and maybe sometimes we're dumb to do that. So in the end, then we only have about a minute left. But with your four survivor and I know you have partners to uh to consult with. UM. This is tough this week because we mentioned the Chargers will be a possibility, Chargers hosting the Jets. That's the second biggest line of the week. Do you trust Anthony Lynn and the Chargers. Pittsburgh's the biggest line at Jacksonville. So if you still have Pittsburgh, that's going to be a team that people use, even though Jacksonville shows up for these games. New Orleans is tough because you don't know about Drew Brees right now, Kansas City on the road, if you still have them at the Raiders, I don't know. This is a tough We've tried to go with home teams as much as possible. I can tell you that, you know, even though even even though hopefill has proven Yah, I got a bunch of partners. Yeah, this is the hardest week this week, Thanksgiving next week. It's the gone three really tough tough weeks, including Thanksgiving as its own weekend circle uh UM and this will cut the finally, you know, it's three oh one and only one from three ten to three on one. That's like three or four straight weeks now where it's barely dwindled. Now the having begins each and every one of these. Chrissy, can't thank you enough. Appreciate it. Man, My pleasure, my friend, and my pleasure. All right, we look for we look forward to the book. Do you have an estimated date on this? Are you just saying some day something? No, I mean, I'm not going to finish till we do the super Bowl. It's gonna hear that. Like I said, that was the book. Okay, I'm super Bowl, the super Bowl. So you know, it's just a journal of everything that's happened, which is quite a bit in this last year. Jason, by the way, then one year I'm gonna think about that. Yes, could you imagine Jason having that kind of impact? I like it. Then what then one year? Thank you, Chrissy, good luck to all, good luck with the Bears and the Vikings. Tonight from all of us at BC Sports to day now back back BA